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Forex Forum Archive for 04/27/2007

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Sofia Kaprikorn 22:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
pls excuse me for wasting the space here -- I got the necessary info from the backgrounder available on the CFTC web page:

A trader may be classified as a commercial in some commodities and as a non-commercial in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial.

anyway if anyone feel like sharing some specific way to use the COT for actual trading I believe it will be good for all readers..

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Here is a similar explanation::
COMMERCIALS -- Traders get classified as commercial by filing a statement with the CFTC that they are commercially ⌠engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets.■ Commercial hedgers are institutions and individuals who operate in the cash market of the underlying commodity. Examples include farmers, international businesses, miners, and processors.

>>>Commercials are considered to be the most influential group in the commodities markets, because they have analysts and sources of intelligence that analyze a number of variables. Although you will never know what information they have at their disposal, by examining the COT data, you can see what positions they take. This is the key point in all of this.

These ⌠Big Dogs■ are worth paying attention to √ especially at extreme positions, since their buying or selling strength can move the markets. They're like a herd of elephants stomping along a muddy river bank. You can't miss their foot prints for sure.

NON-COMMERCIALS (OR LARGE SPECULATORS) -- The non-commercials, or ⌠large speculators,■ take on risk in return for the opportunity to profit. They are speculative traders, who are generally classified as fund managers. These are trend followers, and as such are not terribly accurate most of the time - but not all the time.

any comments on interpreting the COT data?

Scarborough TG 21:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
IMM speculators mount bets against U.S. dollar
NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - Speculators increased their net short U.S. dollar position, mainly due to bigger bets on a stronger euro and Canadian dollar, data for the week to April 17 from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

The total value of the net short dollar position in the latest week rose to $23.48 billion from around $20.95 billion in the previous week, according to Reuters calculations.

In terms of contracts, the net long euro position jumped to a record 111,282 in the latest week from 106,770 the previous week. The net short Canadian dollar position was almost completely neutralized.

The net dollar position is derived from the net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 37,900 43,281
Short 119,672 113,800
Net -81,772 -70,519
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 137,322 129,044
Short 26,040 22,274
Net 111,282 106,770
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,000 pounds sterling)
4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 95,965 83,429
Short 25,899 23,762
Net 70,066 59,667
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 23,229 17,907
Short 40,080 40,279
Net -16,851 -22,372




CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 39,017 25,549
Short 40,648 41,540
Net -1,631 -15,991

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 85,191 88,724
Short 8,714 10,407
Net 76,477 78,317
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 28,053 28,366
Short 22,324 18,607
Net 5,729 9,759

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)

4/24/07 week 4/17/07 week
Long 22,801 24,198
Short 1,698 1,101
Net 21,103 23,097




Sofia Kaprikorn 21:40 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:52 GMT //

hello - I notice you are this first to put the COT link here - pls let me ask you a question (I'd appreciate if others also help) regarding who is who? >> and who is most important to watch?? I got this quote:
1. The Commercials: The commercial traders are individuals or groups that actually deal with the commodity being traded. In the case of grains, they would be the grain farmer, or the people who purchase the grain to use (like General Mills).
2. The Non-Commercials/Large Speculators: These are typically "hedge funds" or institutional traders.

-1- regarding SpotFX or FX futures - who are the Commercials and the Non-Commercials
-2- I saw an article by barbara Rockefeller: "there is not a specific group that is in control at all times" - so if we can't use the fact for Example that Non-Commercials are extremely long EURSD - then how we can use the COT data??
--pls excuse me - since it's weekend I hope you don't mind to discuss some principle matters? TIA!

USA BAY 20:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
ATLANTA SOUTH,

Thanks buddy. Have a good one . GT/GL

Atlanta South 20:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
A GREAT WEEKEND TO YOU AS WELL.

Halifax CB 20:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
The censored4 text may be hard to read, so I have put a copy with a ".txt" extension on the end as well, Here

Halifax CB 20:29 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay (and others using MT) The source code is at this LINK. Save it to the "experts/indicators" folder in the Metatrader directory, open it with the editor - there's some notes at the top. It has to be compiled by MT before it can actually be used.

USA BAY 20:23 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Thanks a lot,

CB, MTL JP, USA ZEUS, and to everyone have a great weekend, and a profitable week ahead. Thanks everyone for all your valuable inputs. See you Forexers next week. gt/gl

dc CB 20:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   

Globe and Mail reports there is an "increased likelihood" that Magna Intl (MGA) could take a direct minority stake in Chrysler Group, according to a new report from a U.S. analyst. KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brett Hoselton said in a report Friday that the odds are greater now than a few weeks ago that Magna will pick up as much as half of Chrysler. "We now believe there is increased likelihood that [Magna] could take a direct minority (25% to 50%) ownership stake in Chrysler," Mr. Hoselton's said. Magna's partner, Onex Corp., would likely end up with 40% to 65% of the co, while DaimlerChrysler would retain about 10%, he said. Mr. Hoselton said that "many industry sources" favor Magna as the leading contender for Chrysler. Magna's offer will likely value Chrysler in the "mid to high $5 billion range," the report said, above KeyBanc's earlier est of $4.6 bln to $4.7 bln

Gen dk 20:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 19:52 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
for all you CAD-ites, Data Drivers.

Next Week.
M: GDP Feb.
Tue: Indus Prices, Raw Material Prices, Dodge Speaks.
Fri: IVEY.

Week after:
7 Building permits
10 Canadian international merchandise trade
10 New Housing Price Index
11 Labour Force Survey

Also this weeks COT

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Halifax CB 19:52 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay - will do, I'll add in a short text note on how I set parameters. Just remember it's very prototypey....

USA BAY 19:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Yeah that'll be great if you can put up the software. Will keep an eye on aud/usd. But as Azuza points out 8340 window maybe closed so maybe have to see where it fails as you pointed out. Thanks a lot CB, great inputs from you. GT/GL
____________________________________________________MTL JP,

Will check the archive for the loonatic level. Waiting for a good entry to long usd/cad. I am staying away from yen pairs for now as I am very sceptical about them. Thanks a lot for the reply. Gt/GL

Mtl JP 19:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
BAY, want to add to my 19.09 that loon is also a curious beast and may want to frollick into 1.0100ish, maybe even below, to see who may be lurking there, playful diving bird that he is.

Halifax CB 19:27 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Whoops, forgot the end italics bit. Sorry to everyone who now has to look a little sideways at the screen....

Halifax CB 19:26 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:17 GMT April 27, 2007
However, when a nice linear looking chart is viewed looking back it is often like driving down the street eyes glued on the rear view mirror staring at a beautiful lady-

Yeah, but it's a pleasant way to die :)

Re. levels, I don't usually post them. It's more a superstition type thing, than anything else. Like I mentionned my possible entry at 1.1185. Guess what never got picked up :(

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:19 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 19:11 GMT April 27, 2007 || CB, I think Bill Williams would be jealous of your AUDosaurus. Nice call... could be that even the 8340 window may be closed by now.

USA Zeus 19:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:03 GMT April 27, 2007

Nice chart- Aside from some entry levels posted a few days ago that were not reached did not see any of your entry posts but an exit the other day. Nonetheless great work on the charts-Quite sophisticated looking.

However, when a nice linear looking chart is viewed looking back it is often like driving down the street eyes glued on the rear view mirror staring at a beautiful lady- Caution must be used as the bridge may be out ahead.

ab- Just thoughts for allocations and squarring etc- not any big prediction.

G/W all

Halifax CB 19:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay - I wouldn't even take my own recommendations. But to me the 0.8340 level looks like a good short. Personally I like to wait to see if it fails at a line, and then short there (like at 0.8330)...But if you (or anyone else) would like the software (it runs on Metatrader, which is both great for charting, and free), I'll put it up. It's rather prehensile ATM.

Mtl JP 19:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:07, as long as we remain above 162.80

dlrcad: favour loon dive another 60 pips from here - remember his diving limit I posted a while ago ? loontactic is a player behind a decieving name. This bird will fly after it has reached bottom.

Auckland peat 18:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Gbp target of .6814 was met - only 22 pips but hey the trade played out perfectly

USA BAY 18:52 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Looking at the chart, it may test above 0.83 again, already testing as I write but don't think it will pass above 8340, correct me if I am wrong. So what level you recommend shorting it Dr Forexaurus. tia

Halifax CB 18:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:41 GMT April 27, 2007
Lol..., you bet "jurassic" it is :).

Just make sure to pick the level that will let you out at a substantial profit, with no risk :)



USA BAY 18:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Does that mean it is time to go AUD JURASSIC SHORT.

Halifax CB 18:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
BTW, my chart says AudUsd longs are about to get EATEN by the AUD-o-sore-US.

Sorry, I'm bored....

hk ab 18:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
zeus, do you mean usd can strength again afterwards?

Halifax CB 18:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
re $Cad - here's my chart for the month...LINK What I love is the way the deviation lines ease up and around yesterday's bump (not the case with anything to do with jpy). Darker blue line is like longer term averaging, yellow line is the main trend, lighter blue line is shorter term averaging, dashed lines yellow are 2 deviations from the trend, dashed lines red are 4 deviations, solid lines red are 4 deviations of the high or low. Deviations are calculated separately above and below the trend line....

BTW, speaking of old paper, I should still have some Manhatten Mutual Fund paper (from the 60's) around the old home - got talked into buying it because a relative knew the owner. Once burned, forever shy, haven't bought a MF or depended on relatives for advice ever since....

USA Zeus 18:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Watch the FX mkt when oil and gold settle down shortly.

LKWD JJ 17:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Oil Jumps More Than $1 After Saudis Announce Foiled Terror Plot

By Mark Shenk

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel in New York after Saudi Arabian authorities said they had arrested more than 170 people suspected of plotting to attack the country's oil fields.

Sofia mik 17:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
short euryen 13
nice w/nd to all

Manila MLa 17:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
thanks....but what do you think it will cost

NY tim 17:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP so heavuy on GBP/USD

HK Kevin 17:38 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Manila MLa 17:32 GMT, try to sell at eBay and you will know the market price.

Manila MLa 17:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
awww i see..thank you very much.....

moscow mike 17:34 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 17:30 GMT April 27, 2007

Yes, i do also keep food cards. Perhaps can short them later in the century.

Manila MLa 17:32 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hi kevin thanks for replying...but have you tried to trade them to the bank?and are there coupons of yours are money?pls reply and thanks again...

moscow mike 17:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 17:22 GMT April 27, 2007

Purk, with you i am ready to organize Swedish family. LOL.

HK Kevin 17:30 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Manila MLa 17:23 GMT, I also keep a lot of these military coupons of Hong Kong during the World War II from my grandfather. They are all useless.

moscow mike 17:26 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, could you guide me how many Tridents D5 left in your arsenal for our fun with loonie?

Manila MLa 17:23 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
pls help me, i am new here, could anyone give me an idea how much a 10 peso mickey mouse money (the money here in Philippines during the Japanese government) will worth if i trade it today in the bank? or do they still trade old monies........i also have poland money year 1983 and 1988 and korean dollar/won year 1993...pls help me

The Netherlands Purk 17:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:16 GMT April 27, 2007
USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 27, 2007

Christ are you married with eachother?
That will be the day VODKA and JR hat in one place...

moscow mike 17:16 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 27, 2007
moscow mike 08:18 GMT April 27, 2007
looks like cable wants to eat both parties today and get back...

Threee cheers again!!!

Will keep a close ear to my neighbor's (and the mechanics) words. This call and his gold prediction were simply amazing!
I think the enclave is up to something...
===============

Thanks Zeus. Was just a lucky strike.. you know.. LOL

GT!

USA Zeus 17:14 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:55 GMT April 27, 2007
ab- Just a hunch. :-)

USA Zeus 17:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:58 GMT April 27, 2007
BAY- Honestly don't know.
IMVHO can flip a coin when using ABC's, 1-5's etc.
The laws of the alphabet work best to curve fit the past not to define what must happen next.
GT

USA BAY 17:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

Do you agree that we are more likely to see 164 in e/j than 162 and also could you share your view on usd/cad as 1.09 a possible target before any reversals. tia

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HT 16:37: 164+, hourly <162.80 nixes

Gen dk 17:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Kingston L 17:00 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Where can I find out how much the foreign reserves does the European Central Bank at this moment? Thanks

USA BAY 16:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Dont you think gbp/usd has finished its wave A correction to 1.9864 and bounced back to 1.9954, that will now target 2.0070 and higher. tia

hk ab 16:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
zeus, would like to hear more from you on gbp pls.

USA Zeus 16:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Looks like GBP/USD might drop (more).

hk ab 16:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
where is gbp heading now? will it go back to the 1.99 line?

USA Zeus 16:51 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:44 GMT April 27, 2007
1.1182 doing its magical magnetic pull.

Yesssssssssssss. GT! :-)

Lahore FM 16:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:43 GMT April 27, 2007
i think i like this much better....gtgl.

hk ab 16:44 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
a possibility only if CB allow e/j to go unlimited......120....lots of complication there.

Lahore FM 16:44 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
1.1182 doing its magical magnetic pull.

Perth Randall El 16:43 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy
=========
120 is coming.

madrid mm 16:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
usd-yen, to infinity and beyond ? 8-)

hk ab 16:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Is it another KAMPO buying again, PAR?
why dlr/jpy not printing 120 for so long....

Singapore HT 16:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have a target for eurjpy?

RIC fxq 16:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
My re-posts of IFR and 4cast are strictly fwiw and NOT necessarily the views of the poster!

Frankly I think most of the babble on IFR is "triple H" - you know, hot air, hype and horse----" but it is interesting at times to see how every intraday surge or dump can be explained in hind sight.

LKWD JJ 16:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
when was las time cable had a monthly close above $2. ?

hk ab 16:16 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
mkt test the tolerance of CBs again.....

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CB- yw- was just about to post the site.
cheers

madrid mm 16:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Zeus a well ! 8-)

madrid mm 16:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex wa quicker 8-)

Top Al-Qaeda Operative Captured on Way to Iraq, Sent to Guantanamo Prison. Blmbrg

Halifax CB 16:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Thx again - found his website: http://mesasoftware.com/ , so maybe I have some reading to do this w/e ....

Halifax CB 15:57 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:47 GMT April 27, 2007
Thx! I never knew about Ehlers, I'll look him up. I hate re-inventing the wheel....

USA Zeus 15:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said the captive is Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi. He was received by the Pentagon this week from the CIA, Whitman said, but the spokesman would not say where or when al-Iraqi was captured or by whom.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:41 //
a mistery solved - tnx and have a great W/E!

UK Alex 15:51 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I reckon it was the AQ story. A friend told me once that traders will always buy the dollar when these type of events happen.

Gen dk 15:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 15:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007

Plz- Was not personal to you or anyone else. Just an observation. In the sequel something got it's nutz ripped out by a wild boar.

As for the Kalman filters, Ehlers, a great guy, has done wonders with those.
Cheers

UK Alex 15:46 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
AQ operative captured who was plotting to assassinate president Musharraf.

Dublin Flip 15:46 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
fxq are these the only hedge fund not funding themselves with Yen ??

UK Alex 15:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:42 GMT April 27, 2007
Keep them coming. These big funds are so bashful. Anything but the truth - hey?

RIC fxq 15:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
... and yet more "chatter" fm IFR:

15:36 EUR/USD: Rumor "Big League" Model Covers USD Shorts] Boston, April 27.
Rumors continue to swirl in the wake of the USD recovery. The latest is an enhancement of an early story about a hedge fund being forced to raise cash. Rumor has it that a "big league" (hint, hint) model is being hit with outflows owing to underperformance and is being forced to raise cash. 1.3585 supports are back in view while stops in the 1.3580 area are undoubtedly larger today than they were earlier given all the fresh buying above 1.3670
today. Offers are eyed at 1.3640 near-term.

Halifax CB 15:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:29 GMT April 27, 2007
I figure that until $CAD wouldn't be considered usd bullish until it crosses about 1.1245 (descending roughly by 10-20 pips/day). Just MVHO, but sooner or later it will, of course...

UK Alex 15:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:38 GMT April 27, 2007
WM/Reuters Fix @ 16.00 BST.

UK Alex 15:40 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Now hearing something about an FBI release which spooked the markets.

Dublin Flip 15:40 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
This is often alot of price fixes for 4pm London and especially on Fridays.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:38 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
sorry - this is really silly - but this London fix is differnet from the London Bullion PM fix at 16:00 GMT - is it correct?

london phil 15:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:51 GMT April 27, 2007
Here comes the $/yen rescue party

the move started with the usd jyp as alex noted the rest were ten minutes later

Gen dk 15:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex -

15:00 Eur fix time?

RIC fxq 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:31

all it really says to me is that in the cause of a "united voice" Juncker backed off.

Alex: yes that was noted noted re: the PM Ldn fix and I think is pretty likely the real reason given a Friday "funnies" scenario.

Halifax CB 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:15 GMT April 27, 2007
Funny how that works. Yesterday for CAD bulls it was "Silence of the Lambs" today it is back to "Yep knew it all along"

Didn't someone in "Silence of the lambs" get his brains eaten while he was alive? Anyway, cad bulls are the strong, silent types...Lol...Anyway, I pretty much just trade off my charts;trouble is I'm tuning a new method (Kalman filters - just a faster & more accurate averager, in a sense), so I get invoved in that when counter trends are going on. But I do like the chatter for background & to keep in tune....

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:23 GMT April 27, 2007
NYAM- Point was not to say there was/is/isn't a trend change in the USD.
Any asset allocation strat (or trading) that calls for 100% one direction or the other esp at extremes usually meets a a day of (w)reckoning. As for my USD/CAD it is a position not a bottom pick if you will. Positions IMVHO are best built in blocks so as not to be a lump sum "pick" by selling into strength and buying into weakness.
GT :-)
cheers!

Dublin Flip 15:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I'd say it more a response to handing out the crackpipes to the $Yen traders than anything from europe otherwise why would eur/jpy still be 163, Gbp/jpy 239 and even Ozz/Jpy 99.40 -LOL

madrid mm 15:34 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:31 GMT April 27, 2007
frustration could be one of them, couldn t it ?

UK Alex 15:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:24 GMT April 27, 2007
Kaprikorn's fix buying explanation seems most likely. There's been plenty of events in the last 24hrs which have been used as an excuse to move the markets.

London NYAM 15:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
fxq// Wouldnt that be dollar negative? After all Junker no agrees that the fall in the dollar rise in Eur is not a cause for concern.

madrid mm 15:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
and this [email protected]#@$#$^#$^ mouse is not working properly .....Arggggggghhhhhhhh

Lahore FM 15:29 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
when usdcad passes 1.1182 mark it would be the complete bullish usd picture.

madrid mm 15:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Any excuses to get in and out are good to me !! 8-)

fairfield JC 15:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
What is going on next week? Any news or is it a holiday? TIA

Bangladesh Wenel 15:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Still on my eur/usd shorts from 1,3645 T/P 1,3400-3450
S/l 1,3700 .Will add shorts if the weekly close <1,3600 GL and have a good weekend

RIC fxq 15:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:19 GMT

could be a delayed reaction to that but ... his comments below were telling.

GVI Jay 14:27 GMT
At least publicly

"... At the same time, comments from Eurogroup head Juncker
acknowledged that he had differences with the ECB"s Trichet over the EUR exchange rate, but that they are over and that he is not concerned about the exchange rate. The rift was made public by French presidential candidate Sarkozy. "

from IFR 14:05 GMT

posted on GVI by me earlier

London NYAM 15:23 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
should have typed "If GDP is so low it means...." not GBP is low
Zeuss the dollar move hasnt really signalled any trend reversals just yet. At least i haent seen anything convincing. Buying the dollar except in that wonderful Japanese currency, would still be bottom picking. Not that I have anything against that as i like do do it a little too much myself.

USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 08:18 GMT April 27, 2007
looks like cable wants to eat both parties today and get back...

Threee cheers again!!!

Will keep a close ear to my neighbor's (and the mechanics) words. This call and his gold prediction were simply amazing!
I think the enclave is up to something...

melbourne DC 15:20 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
DOLLAR: Traders noting hefty dollar demand at the London fixing event,
loosely tying the interest to dollar needs by a U.S. fund said to be
raising cash to meet month end redemptions.

UK Alex 15:19 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Speaking at a press conference following a cabinet meeting, Juncker, who is Luxembourg's prime minister and finance minister, said he hadn't threatened to resign his post over the strength of the euro.

"I had some slight divergences of view with the president of the (European) central bank" and with governing board members "as regards the quality of the dialogue between the central bank and the Eurogroup...But these problems no longer exist," he said

His comments follow an attack on ECB policy by French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy in a television interview.

"Mr. Juncker...threatened to resign if Mr. Trichet continued with the bank's monetary policy," Sarkozy said in a program broadcast Thursday evening.

UK Alex 15:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Could be the Juncker effect.

HK Kevin 15:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
If EUR close under 1.36 this hr, it is surely a dead cat bounce of the earlier move.

USA Zeus 15:15 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Funny how that works. Yesterday for CAD bulls it was "Silence of the Lambs" today it is back to "Yep knew it all along"
Contra USD complacency returns for some instant "shakeout"

The market reminds us that everything is cyclical- nothing is mandatory nor obligatory about price movements.

GT!

UK Alex 15:15 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Supposedly position squaring ahead of Golden Week, but I don't believe that for one moment.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
btw I read in a book that when the trend is set the Volatility is low - -reading what Jay posted on the Pro side that vols are low despite the alltime highs - can we "safely" assume that the road to 1.37+ is clear?

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 15:07 //
god bless the Plunge Protection Team!!

no - frankly what causes this - a friend told me that at 15:00 GMT USD is bought - and especially on Fridays it is a bit compulsory to have this sudden counter move?

What is causing that - profit taking?

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Guy, what happen?

hk ab 15:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I think sth is working on e/j now and other yen crosses, take care.

hawthorne, ca thetrendmyfrenz 15:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EURO top is in get ready for the 700 -1K pip pullback!

madrid mm 15:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
You got to love friday european closing time !!! 8-) How many i got caught on this moves 8-)

USA Zeus 15:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:02 GMT April 27, 2007

Yep!

NY RP 15:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
It is called the Plunge Protection Team.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
covered my short from 66 at 25...nice NY boys!

london phil 15:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
wow something sure spooked the market

hk ab 15:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
cad is supported by the cad/jpy cross, fwiw.

hk ab 15:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
zeus, is your trap in dlr/cad ready yet?

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
15:00gmt usd buying

Dublin Flip 14:59 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
yeah Alex the cavalary are a little early today.

I guess with Japanese holiday they want to get out of the office earlier than usual - LOL

London NYAM 14:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Treasuries seem to be maintaining a view of interest rate cuts.
The data is interesting in that it is increasing the ambiguity for the interest rate outlook. If GBP is so low it means then the fed may switch towards concerns over the economic outlook, or so the story went yesterday. Also in this column is the concern that raising rates will squeeze the teetering debt-laden consumer and recent home buyers setting off a deflationary spiral. On the other hand inflation is definitely creeping up. In the face of uncertainty what does a rational fed do: answer: nothing it stays on hold. So debt markets need to adjust for this triggering sme bond selling. What about the stock market. This should seem negative if you believe the above so we should see a double sell-off perhaps not today but probably in the new week once weekend news meditations are over). For Usd it should also be dollar positive but if it weren’t for the pesky carry trade, which still needs assurances that these growth figures and housing figures aren’t going to end the party.

UK Alex 14:56 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 14:54 GMT April 27, 2007
Whatever you want to believe.

Sofia mik 14:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:51 GMT April 27, 2007
euroyen is more rescue

UK Alex 14:51 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Here comes the $/yen rescue party.

USA Zeus 14:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CB- And as usual the great Murcielago never quits.
GT! :-)

dc CB 14:43 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Alcan says tax makes it takeover bait -
Globe and Mail reports Alcan will be severely disadvantaged by a controversial federal budget measure that scraps a tax deduction for cos investing abroad, CEO Dick Evans said Thursday, warning that the initiative could make the co more susceptible to a foreign takeover....

Halifax CB 14:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Zeus...As usual I'm going the other (more boring) way and letting $CAD grind out it's 15-20 pips per day. I have a possible add on ad 1.1185, upper exit at 1.1245, both sliding down at around the same rate as the average...glgt....

hk ab 14:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
v. tempted to add short e/j here. 163.

USA Zeus 14:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD
Trap set at 1.1117 not taken for some add-on blocks.
May adj that trap a bit.

London NYAM 14:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
KAP// I agree but its taking a little longer than normal to kick in...must be plenty off offers.

LKWD JJ 14:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
p.s. gas prices flew in april not march....

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
with better than exp UoM sentiment we might see the traditional US market counter move...

LKWD JJ 14:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
kind of hard with a strong u of m to correct a lousy gdp. but for a few pips is it worth it?

The Netherlands Purk 14:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
e/u closed at 13654. I can go zip beer at queensday...

Syd 14:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Reuters/Univ Michigan End-Apr Current Index 104.6; Mar 103.5
DJ Reuters/U Michigan 12-Mo Inflation Forecast +3.3%; Mar +3.0%
Reuters/U Michigan 5-Yr Inflation Forecast +3.1%; Mar +2.9%

Syd 14:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Reuters/Univ Michigan End-Apr Sentiment 87.1; Mar 88.4


Reuters/Univ Michigan Preliminary Apr Sentiment Was 85.3

RIC fxq 14:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UoM 87.1

HK Kevin 14:00 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 13:55, just make sure you have a reasonable stop and won't get margin call from the broker.

madrid mm 13:56 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
FWIW, Regarding the stock market crashes, the land prices crash + houses prices crash in Japan in the 1990s, + the 3 generations loan repayment etc., there could be a lesson in there for the rest of the world !

LKWD JJ 13:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
thanks will check it out.

UK Alex 13:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:49 GMT April 27, 2007
Japs have the edge on quality, fuel-efficiency and affordability. It's what we're all looking for in these hard times when one has to go out and mow their own lawn.

fairfield JC 13:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:49 GMT April 27, 2007
Buying dlr (except against YEN) now will sure be money in bank next Mon & Tue

I am with you on that one......for sure!!! GL GT

UK Alex 13:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 13:52 GMT April 27, 2007
Some positive news on the manufacturing front, I posted over on Futures Forum.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hi there Purk - hope we get a nice slide from 69 you and 66 me..
however if the trend turns we can enjoy a good journey south from these levels..

on 4 h - there si consolidation channel - - top was touched at 1.3683 (R2 from daily pivots)

LKWD JJ 13:52 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CAD gained after boc left rates alone due to growth in us as its largest trading partner. now gdp is lousy and growth slows and cad goes up again?

RIC fxq 13:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:34 GMT

just anecdotal but that certainly seems to be a concern of VW brass according to some reports.

in any event not trying to be a PITA but I do have a huge cynical streak.

HK Kevin 13:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Buying dlr (except against YEN) now will sure be money in bank next Mon & Tue

Syd 13:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm
should read the article, seems they think a money tree is growing in the back garden
Mi casa su casa or que será, será...
LINK

The Netherlands Purk 13:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: last bit is stopped out at b/e, pattern is back.

e/u: took a short at 13669 looking for quick pips, and will reload tonight when it will return to the highs and retreats. No retreat no position.
Monday is queensday in Clogland, so this e/u has to give me the beer money....
I think that this i a euro move, not yen strength.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 13:39 //
hello, ginko pointed yesterday that AUDUSD was lead currency - no sure if he meant only last day moves... however your info has the implication of USD strength to come...

CANBERRA JD 13:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I know that.. Hence the ":p" at the end of my sentence.

The price on some brokers is an average of bid prices in the market or some rubbish. Others just put crap prices up.. Either way its criminal... Time to go institutional...

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
JD 13:39 / maybe worth your while to re-view the fine print of contract with your "dealer"; may say that their prices are only indicative which is different from actual. In which case save your lawyer money.

UK Alex 13:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Think a Spanish builder was trying to soak up some of the excess and that is what started it all when the news broke.

UK Alex 13:43 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:38 GMT April 27, 2007
One of the banks had quite a nasty fall too, am I right?

Syd 13:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:38 too many houses being built not enough buyers especially when rates increase further and the UK second home buyers dry up when second mortgages start to bite

madrid mm 13:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:28 GMT April 27, 2007

maybe !! lol 8-)

CANBERRA JD 13:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Was talking to some pit traders in sydney today. They are waiting for a/u to start its decent to 0.7400. Also noticed that the price in sydney was 10 pips less than my broker price.. Which is ridiculous, and I have a good means to sue :P..

madrid mm 13:38 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd, i just wanted to add that -

- it was the homebuilders shares that crashes not the houses prices

Of course from then on it is anyboduy's guess what can happen and there can be a strong correlatio between the two, ie homebuilders and ouse prices !

UK Alex 13:34 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:28 GMT April 27, 2007
Yes, we can buy more Toyotas and less GM Vauxhalls and Fords.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - be sure not! if this can be said in English..

I'm trying a contra on EURUSD - sold at 64/67 but it is not moving... my reason was on 30 min a doji very long shadows - so thought it is not sustainable and I assumed a minor pullback to 54..

the 30 mni in GBPUSD is also developing a Bearish Engulfing cnadle.. but in those minor timeframes I guess this is not important..

RIC fxq 13:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:24 GMT April 27, 2007
madrid mm 13:17 GMT April 27, 2007

there's always the EZ/UK to sell their cheap stuff to! After all they have "booming" economies, at least according to the FinMin/CB cliques esp. in the EU.

Syd 13:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Costas house price crash?
April 27, 2007
LINK
Are UK house prices about to crash?
LINK

madrid mm 13:27 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex - 8-)

and the japanese products ?

Austin gw 13:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:23 GMT April 27, 2007
Hmm I'm talking to myself aren't I?
---------------------
Highly doubtful NYAM. You have plenty of silent readers here.

UK Alex 13:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:17 GMT April 27, 2007
The US because there's no-one who can manufacture them more cheaply than China. In the short-term imports are going to get more expensive and the trade deficit is going to worsen.

London NYAM 13:23 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Hmm I'm talking to myself aren't I?

hk ooozmeeh 13:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:05 GMT April 27, 2007
US GDP excluding housing and trade deficit seems to be very good .

....lol..good trades to you mate

madrid mm 13:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
So if USA economy is not doing to well, who is going to buy all these Made in PRC product ?

London NYAM 13:15 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD important support S/T fiblevels:
2.0000
1.9987
1.9974 (double fib)
1.9953
1.9932 (signficant to warrent sidewys correction instead of second wave of GBP buying for 2.0130-50 targets 2.0218 and 2.00296)

Syd 13:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Rate futures price gains were capped due in part to a sharp increase in a key inflation component of the report. Core personal consumption expenditures - excluding food and energy prices - were up 2.2% in the first quarter, from a 1.8% gain in the previous quarter.

UK Alex 13:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:05 GMT April 27, 2007
It's a pity they're set to worsen.

HK REVDAX 13:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:02//i go by the stars...

By the way, I watched a documentary about the occult practice of the Nazis in WW2. It seems that Germans were about into the mystics more so than the Chinese. So there is at least an element of truth in astrology. Otherwise they would not have used it.

Scarborough TG 13:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Fed's road map is quit clear with stagflation, raise rates rapidly until inflation is wrenched out. Look at the past when stagflation troubled the U.S. economy, Fed will honour past Fed President's and wrench out inflation from the economy.

PAR 13:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
US GDP excluding housing and trade deficit seems to be very good .

shanghai bc 13:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:20 GMT April 27, 2007

There is a strong social stigma attached to bankruptcy in all Confucius culture countries..Some choose to commit suicide too..Other cultures may find it strange..

Como Perrie 13:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:55 GMT April 27, 2007

It deepence if in France they vote for the super welfare plan proposed. If so might be good idea.

HK REVDAX 12:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Any interest in selling Eur/Yen here? Tks

Como Perrie 12:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Done for the week..

Beer at the garden club best choice to me at current.

Will recheck later on what happens maybe, maybe sunday. No big interest at current levels.

Bi

Gen dk 12:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD - 4 hour chart - if it doesn't break above 1.3680/83 -
there will be a 3-ple top formation - a bit upward..

Dublin Flip 12:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Oops I meant....

ubiquitous rally on friday London close in $jpy

Dublin Flip 12:44 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
A win is a win in this washing machine market mate.
I guess a few awaiting the (by now) ubiquitous friday London close in $jpy -LOL

NY RP 12:43 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Here we go again. Feels like Ground Hog Day, Stagflation. The writing is on the wall as long as you do NOT listen to CNBC or the other bobbling heads.

WARSAW MARCIN 12:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
yearly BIG trend reversal on eur/usd happenig, [email protected], s/[email protected], [email protected]

Bangkok bkk 12:40 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
As expected, USD/JPY could not break above 119.70/80 at the first test.

Close short USD/JPY @ 118.90

Looking to buy on dips near 118.80 Target 120+


--------------------------------------------------
Bangkok bkk 13:52 GMT April 26, 2007
USD/JPY will probably test 119.70/80 area by tomorrow before consolidation ... and then test above 120 next week

IMHO....

RIC fxq 12:40 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:35 GMT
sell the rumour, sell the fact - lol.

did cover my USDJPY shorts from the 11945/55 range noted last night AT 11911 avg.

London NYAM 12:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
jpy the biggest winner from that move.

Gen dk 12:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin Flip 12:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:09 GMT April 27, 2007
Should be interesting day though to see whther $jpy can build on it's 50 pip weekly rally so far this week. The cynic in me often notices that $jpy gets a hefty handicapping (higher) before crap data/news.
---------------

The defence rests

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:34 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
exited at 68 - broker didn't give me at the 79..
anyway I like that I got the direction early today..

UK Alex 12:33 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
US GDP +1.3% Rate In 1Q; Consensus +1.8%

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
event risk on deck
12:30GMT - 1Q07 advance GDP, mrkt +1.8%, prev +2.5%

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
this present action in EURUSD looks like a shake-out in the lows 1.3580-90 - weak longs were discouraged.
this presented an opportunity to recharge for a new challenge of the 1.3667 high..
well soon enough it will be obvious which is correct..

Gen dk 12:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 12:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Limit sold USDGBP out now with 70pips.
Lots of trading jobs see help forum for aspiring Soros gurus

Halifax CB 12:20 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
bc - is there a strong social stigma attached to bankruptcy in China? I assume there is in Japan, though don't know for sure. Here (Canada) it's very moderate, in the States it seems to almost be the cool thing to do...Changes market dynamics a bit...

hk ab 12:15 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
bc, thanks very much for the clarification. I was not born yet then.

madrid mm 12:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
8-P

Como Perrie 12:12 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:04 GMT April 27, 2007

That's just in those coupla of bigger cities balloning prices phenomena. Country and minor (below a million) cities have yet very normal prices around in US.

Dallas GEP 12:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Shorted euro 1.3645 target 1.3580

PERTH Rendal El 12:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:02 GMT April 27, 2007
yes it is..it is a special kind of grass...lol

shanghai bc 12:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:59 GMT April 27, 2007

The tragedy was that many bought a two-room-flat costing 2 million Dollars on three-generation-mortagage only to discover the price declined non-stop some 80% for the next 10 years..Imagine you were holding that mortage and the house price goes donw to 400K from 2 million..Three-generation-mortgage-slaves..

madrid mm 12:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 11:58 GMT April 27, 2007

is it well paid ? 8-)

madrid mm 12:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:34 GMT April 27, 2007
it reminds me the song - " Love is in the air, everywhere i look around."

USA, Japan, China have repectively
1 central bank, 1 MoF, 1 fical policy
EU
1 central, 12 MoF, 12 Fiscal policies. + they have a tendency in the Euro zone to wash their linen in public 8-)
Oh , i almost forgot, isn t it the french predident vote ? lol

Cape Town 11:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I'm looking for someone to mow the lawn...

Cape Town 21:15 GMT April 24, 2007
Re last chirp ... my grass is still growing faster!

Como Perrie 11:57 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Even If I do suspect the Dow would deserve a healthy correction lower if wages cost shows out to have increased above expectations.

Como Perrie 11:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Best thing to me this US session is nothing happens and I join the Garden Club with a good fresh beer.

Good idea Flip tks

nice /we

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
eurusd must be working on the 40-44 R1 - ahead of 59 and 80..

GVI john 11:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

EU theEUROqueen 11:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:47 GMT April 27, 2007
Happy day!
(2) how many bank customers went bankrupt?" ...

Many Bob many..and dont short the Euro..

Happy trade

GVI john 11:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3602	119.58	1.2079	1.9912	1.1207	0.8266	162.65
High	1.3655	119.67	1.2100	2.0059	1.1225	0.8354	162.80
Low	1.3583	118.54	1.2032	1.9893	1.1146	0.8249	161.67
04/26/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/26/2007					
5 day 	1.3607	118.86	1.2064	1.9995	1.1205	0.8314	161.73
10 day	1.3586	119.02	1.2080	1.9987	1.1258	0.8329	161.56
20 day 	1.3488	118.90	1.2135	1.9852	1.1381	0.8258	160.31
50 day 	1.3328	118.40	1.2184	1.9641	1.1559	0.8051	157.79
100 day	1.3187	119.14	1.2270	1.9616	1.1630	0.7937	157.08
200 day	1.2992	118.08	1.2331	1.9285	1.1450	0.7785	153.43

UK Alex 11:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Yellen: US Has `Some' Risk Of Recession

Como Perrie 11:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Currently am just watchfully waiting datas to watch for any sign of any stagflation beast risks. Nothing big, no club needed.

UK Alex 11:34 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Just for amusement:
Juncker Spokesman:Resignation Threat Over ECB Policy Unlikely

Como Perrie 11:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:27 GMT April 27, 2007
don't mind, am not looking for any club myself

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:27 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:13 //
sorry - what club did you want to join?

Dublin Flip 11:26 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
well I actually meant yesterdays' rally mate.

Como Perrie 11:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:22 GMT April 27, 2007
Why?

Melbourne Qindex 11:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.8316 is still a significant level.

Gen dk 11:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:13 //
did you e-mail jay?

Melbourne Qindex 11:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.1148.

UK Alex 11:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Euro-zone: French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy tells France 2 television he thinks the EUR is too strong. He denies that senior European figures do not share this view, noting: "The Germans don't agree, but the Prime Minister of Luxembourg who presides over the Eurogroup, Mr. Juncker, ... threatened to resign if Mr. Trichet continued (with his current approach)." He reiterates that the United States is pushing down the USD and that the monetary authorities in Britain, Japan and China have all used exchange rate policy to foster growth. He continues: "What's the point of creating the world's second currency if we're not going to use it?"

Mtl JP 11:16 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
loon-atic cosmonauts sitting on Trident D-5 now doing nice "Pyongyang" style pirouette hoping nav software wont guide it back into its launch tube.

RIC fxq 11:14 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:09 GMT

you mean like its doing right now ? - rotfl

Como Perrie 11:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I wanted to join the Trader's Club the sign said 'Be All That You Can Be', they told me it wasn't enough.

London NYAM 11:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the Eur has already crossed through the resistance area of equivalent pattern in the GBP.

UK Alex 11:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:09 GMT April 27, 2007
Thanks. All views appreciated.

Dublin Flip 11:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Should be interesting day though to see whther $jpy can build on it's 50 pip weekly rally so far this week. The cynic in me often notices that $jpy gets a hefty handicapping (higher) before crap data/news.

anyway this is more time I've spent working for a while so I better go back into the garden -LOL

ny platt 11:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
please could someone please let me know the expected number of pips movement in the Euro/usd pair after the data release today??

London NYAM 11:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Chris// point taken i havent seen your website.

GBP stop running:
If this is true then we should expect the GBP to cut through fib retrace at 1.9985 and perhaps try for stoops on the other side of the figure selling pressure will be set up just prior to the major relative lows 2.003-2.008 before another series of stop just above 2.0010. Since this is pretty tight it may not be worth the asualt though if there is more to be made by the more distant stops probably built just below the last congestion area of 1.9930-40

UK Alex 11:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Investors also refrained from taking drastic positions ahead of the Golden Week holiday period from late April to early May, weighing on the dollar.

''Many are being careful'' in this season of the year, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior currency trader at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, referring to the reason market players opted to refrain from making active moves.

Dublin Flip 11:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
well it's not all conspiratorial though. Kampo and co are investing all the Japanese savers money abroad so there is real flows. That the Japanese authorities actually want to discourage domestic and foreign investment, evidenced by the lifeless nikkei whilst all around have markedly been appeciation, just underscores what a misguided one dimentional policy they have over there. Imagine any government saying "we don't want your capital" and then wondering why the economy is so weak. Over in the US they at least pay lip service with "strong dollar policy" rhetoric to reassure investors despite having a weak dollar against almost all bar yen. The Japanese need to be saved from themselves.

Como Perrie 11:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Morning all...

so today we have the first GDP reading for the 1st quarter, which usually deviates from the corrections we will have to follow in the month(s) ahead.

Readings consensuses around most ranging very high from 3 to 3.2 pct, while a more normal reading would stay more close to some around a 2.1/2, as yesterday the IMF released a consensus for the US Gdp to fall into the range of the 2 pct in the quarters ahead and on an yearly basis.

Real Gdp annualised is seen at 1.8 pct, PCE for Q1 at 3.5 pct

Additionally US Employment Quarterly Cost Index is seen at 1 pct, Personal Consumption at 3.5 and Michigan Confidence at 85.5

That's all for today, have a good w/e
bibi

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
based on EURUSD Daily pivots (00:00 GMT close):
R1 - 1.3637
midpoint - 1.3659
R2 - 1.3680
GVI pivots (1900GMT):
R1 - 1.3644
R2 - 1.3685

CT Cris 10:59 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:48 GMT April 27, 2007
=====
my trading strategy explained several times in this forum,
and it was on the net with charts.
I can't add it each time.

London NYAM 10:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Flip and Alex// in the same vein, USDGBP is getting major vol moves between 7:00 and 10:00 gmt and then agiain in the afternoon usually around 13:00. Most actions occuring through supports and resistance and establishing new technical points in the process.

UK Alex 10:56 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:44 GMT April 27, 2007
Japanese agencies are supporting $/yen. Tokyo is the city which never sleeps. Asian banks are still active as we speak.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip //
you are quite a nice bunch of people on the other side-->
I base my view on USDJPY mainly on Singapore SFX notes on Tokyo fix - so what you and Alex just posted adds more.... really valuable info..

ny platt 10:50 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
How many pips movement should be expected in the EURO/USD pair after the data release????

London NYAM 10:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris// Your initial e-mail regarding this matter did not indicate using a DCA stratagy. It simply was to show how magis your timing was. The first timing call and second were pretty good. The last was not. But i can then assume that nless yo otherwise state it your calls include an autpmatic 30pip DCA stratagy.

Deems like there is an awful lot of fairly obvious stop-loss charging going on in USDGBP. The lack of any major news yesterday and today showthat the fairly obvious stop-loss zones. At least those targerted and traded amongst the 'bankng' and trading community were all run in thin trading. I wouldnt be surprised if there was some serious hedgie book running. This latest move back up only underlies it with the 1.9980 level obvious target resistance zone with s-l build up behind.
I would suggest not a good time to play the obvious or to try an mount momentum campains in large time intervals (4hr charts or more) we are talking rapid moves over short periods with retraces in similar rapidity for shorts squeezed to be squeezed out on both ends.

Dublin Flip 10:44 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
It rallies most often after London close and before asian open mate. You only buy in a thin market if you are already long (or are a day trader being stopped)

madrid mm 10:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
meanwhile Euro/yen is making new high......8-)

UK Alex 10:38 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:25 GMT April 27, 2007
$/yen is managed, hedgies buying the crosses. My theory fwiw.

CT Cris 10:29 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:52 GMT April 26, 2007
CT Cris 04:31 GMT April 26, 2007
gbp.usd movement
==========
0600 -0700 gmt move up
0700-1200 gmt move down
1200-1800 gmt move up


======1200 gmt is the time to buy .

MAGIC OF MY CALLS
--------------------
If I said buy ,and market went against it ,buy another at intervals 30 pips , and exit at or around the entry point.
---- just check the price at 1200gmt 26/04/2007 and chk it now.

Dublin Flip 10:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
You are right Alex IMHO. $jpy seldom rallies in the Asian session whereas it does in the thinner NY session. Suggests to me the Asians are less convinced than the US hedgies.

UK Alex 10:23 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 10:17 GMT April 27, 2007
Think we both know where the majority of hedge funds are based.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:21 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:13 //
$JPY - you mean as a principle?
- I read that before actually that during Asia and especially ahead ot 01:00 GMT Tokyo fix is bought and then sold in Eur session..

RIC fxq 10:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:10 GMT

curious why you say "NY traders getting carried away on carry"? It is haedly unique to them

Syd 10:16 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP)--A Russian military helicopter crashed in Chechnya Friday, reportedly shot down, and an emergency official said at least 14 people were feared dead.

An Emergency Situations Ministry official in Chechnya said the Mi-8 aircraft went down in the southern part of Chechnya, where rebels still have a significant presence, and that all aboard - at least 14 people - were feared dead.

The RIA-Novosti news agency quoted an unidentified official as saying the helicopter was shot down.

UK Alex 10:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:56 GMT April 27, 2007
$/yen bought during Asia session, sold by Europeans. Tells its own story.

PAR 10:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Market got green ligth from BOJ and SNB to extend the carry trades and thats creating a one way market indepent of economic numbers .

Melbourne Qindex 10:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : I would assume 117.72 is a fair position to settle at the end of this month (see details in my monthly graphic presentation).

UK Alex 10:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
NY traders getting carried away on carry.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
anyway - develop a thesis and test it - long EURUSD at 1.3617
R - I guess: 22 - 38 - 55 - 65

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:56 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex - tnx a lot - pls excuse me but isn't it $JPY to benefit the most from this tightening (if compared to $chf)?

btw the MAs are so conpressed - I see a little disconnection now in EURUSD that can mark of a run up..
after all the sudden slip yesterday has shaken some of the ST spec I guess so the train might take the Highway again.. only a guess.. however this positioning 2-3 hours before the data always can be a good guide.. let's see..

PAR 09:55 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Japanese CPI dont reflect reality . Sarkozy has a point that Europe contrary to USA, Japan , China and most industrialised countries has no exchange rate policy .

UK Alex 09:49 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Just to say $/yen no-hike is fully priced in now.

UK Alex 09:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:39 GMT April 27, 2007
Yes, PBoC has definitely got to control the runaway growth by further tightening. Also, more steps are being taken towards greater currency flexibility. Yen will benefit as it is a proxy for the yuan. Swiss franc is the closest thing to a hard currency, but not considered as a safe-haven anymore.

St. Annaland Bob 09:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:42 GMT April 27, 2007

most bank already know what the exact official number will be, the plain truth lays within the answers for the following questions: "(1) how many bank went bankrupt? (2) how many bank customers went bankrupt?" ... happy trades!

hk ab 09:45 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR//what's your take on dlr/jpy now? it seems sth v. wrong in 15 mins chart.....

PAR 09:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Most banks predicting weak to very weak US gdp numbers .

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 09:25 //
you mean PBoC is expected to hike?
pls, can you elaborate on the implicaions: isn't it to favor the JPY as they benefit from RMB tightening?
$CHF is safe-haven - isn't it $Y to soar?

UK Alex 09:33 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Swiss KOF 1.9 vs 2.0

UK Alex 09:26 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Let's see what KOF is first.

UK Alex 09:25 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:22 GMT April 27, 2007
$/Swiss if you're worried about what China might do next week.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
not sure at all - just thinking on a 2 hour chart of EURUSD..
it has rising Support trendline - 1.3540 Low - - 1.3585 Low and the last one holded yeaterday - so a bounce up is more logical...

>> there is a possibility that the Hourly EURUSD will develop in H&S formation - right now in a surge for the Right Shoulder.. just speculation of course..

mm - i could but you know how difficult is to convey some internal knowledge... it's better to work with what one has got.. sorry for the slightly depressed tone..

UK Alex - u can't imagine how I'd like to know the answer to ur question!

Auckland peat 09:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
my rationale behind shorting the Eur/Gbp at .6836 was that there was a confluence of 2 fib extns. the 161% extension of .6751 to .6804 and the 261% exension of 6774 to 6799. these both approximated 6838. theres also an obvious 5 wave pattern ending there. this gives a min target of 6814 with traiing stop there for 6804 possible. oriiginal stop at 6848 but now becoz I'm ultra conservative now at b/e
yes its a small target due to the size of the original swing being only 90 pips (effectively playing the 38% retracment of that swing)

madrid mm 09:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
"Santander Chairman Emilio Botin has built a bank with a market value of 8.3 billion euros in 1995 to one now valued at about 84 billion euros, fourth-biggest in Europe by that measure. Analysts including Arturo de Frias of Dresdner Kleinwort believe Botin could pay 20 billion euros to buy ABN Amro's banks in Brazil and Italy." blmbrg

Now this is what is happening when Santander and its chum BBVA have a quasi duopoly in a concentrated market plus a housing market going through the roof 8-)

madrid mm 09:13 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:09 GMT April 27, 2007

Indeed , but you could ask on the Help Forum and some people could give you a feel of it IMHO

madrid mm 09:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
These Nordics currencies, NOK+ SEK might be worth a look for the USA $ data IMHO.

UK Alex 09:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:54 GMT April 27, 2007
From what I'm hearing, I think the market is positioned for a weak GDP number. So on a better-than-expected result should I go long $/Swiss or $/yen?

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I really want to meet someday - some guy who is inside the bank who will describe how exactly they read tthe figures - as I constanly am being told that bank traders view the price in adifferent way.... so that I can view as they do and not get mistaken at every single step..

after all it is all in the quality of information - on the dealing desk - you know the flows ..

Dallas GEP 09:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
FM and BAY, the logic behind shorting eur/gbp again earlier is as follows:

Since eur/gbp HAS been consistently range trading in roughly 6780 - 6830 range it is alwys a good strategy IMO to make the assumption that it is MORE likely the pair will range trade than to bet on it to break either short or long out of range.

Secondly GBP has basically shorted 180 pips off it's high of roughly 1.20120 so at THIS point in time I beleive Euro will break below the 1.35's in sort of a catchup mode. The reason it hasn't YET IMO is that there appears to be some rigorous defense of euro options on the downside. Eur/jpy at 162.60 is certainly helping keep the eur/usd bid at this time but I think all jPY pairs are soon due for a correction SHORT. When eur/jpy shorts it will be much more difficult for the euro bulls .

Now the tricky part is WHEN the euro shorts , will it short at a faster rate than the GBP????? Well PROBABLY based on thse current levels . So eur/gbp should short also in that scenario.

NOW if one assumes the dollar will get beat up more is it MORE likely the GBP will travel FASTER than the euro will LONG???? Well IMO YES . So again eur/gbp should short.

So basically the path of LEAST resistance is for the market to continue to range trade in regards to eur/gbp.

UK Alex 09:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
US Q1 GDP quarter-on-quarter annualised: previous +2.5%; Reuters consensus forecast +1.8% (1330BST)

US Q1 CORE PCE: previous +1.8%; Reuters consensus forecast +2.1% (1330BST)

US UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT SURVEY: previous 88.4; Reuters consensus forecast 85.2 (1500BST)

madrid mm 09:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR

They might have the old accountant from Enron in the Official Data institute of Japan 8-)

PAR 09:00 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Contrary to what Trichet and other central bankers say carry trades seem to be the easiest way to make money and to be protected . Think even a lot of central banks involved in the carry trades .

Como Perrie 09:00 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I saw a sign it said left lane closed so I went someplace else.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 08:44 GMT //
hi - I saw Cons for 1.8% from 2.8% last... so bad US data again... I'm not sure but I think I fell a stupid victim to a range market while waiting for a breakout... bought 2 days ago at the top at 1.3650 - - sold yesterday on the bottom 1.3591... completely clueless...

UK Alex 08:44 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:31 GMT April 27, 2007
Positioning ahead of the GDP data, plus some carry trade interest.

UK Alex 08:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Switzerland: ‘So dull, like immersing yourself in a glass of milk.’ John Pringle (1925-2006)

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:31 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
is it just stophunting?
the range from yesterday was so depressed...

Syd 08:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Financial crisis looms after rise in risky lending: Bank
Financial crisis looms after rise in risky lending: Bank

moscow mike 08:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
looks like cable wants to eat both parties today and get back...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd: The price action is bouncing from the key support 3580-90 and showing sings of recovering but it must break the 3620-30 key resistance to break some of the bears action first. The trend is your friend so buy on failed dips IMHO. Peace and GT

USA Zeus 08:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
to=so

USA Zeus 08:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Bored to sniped a nibble of loonert long @ 1.1187 (offer)

Sofia mik 08:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR Current Account -5.3B

Syd 08:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Swiss Natl Bk To Continue To Increase Interest Rates - Roth
Outlook For Econ Growth, Monetary Stability Favorable - Roth .Forex Markets May Adjust Suddenly - SNB Pres Roth

St. Annaland Bob 07:59 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
ab// "...I once heard that Japs need to finish the mortgage by 3 generations of a family......"

thanks for the tip, according to that it is for sure that I will never start on invest in Japanese 'moving' business.

Syd 07:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Bank Of Japan May Well Prove More Hawkish
Euroyen interest rate futures may be discounting only a 25 basis point hike in Bank of Japan rate this year. But RBC Capital Markets says they may be underestimating the risks of rates going up by another 75 basis points given the Bank of Japan's emphasis on the longer-term. The bank notes that while core CPI in Japan may have fallen to -0.3% in March, Tokyo CPI alone accelerated to 0.2% from 0.0%, instead of falling to -0.1% as expected. Also, in its semiannual report the Bank of Japan looks for the core CPI to accelerate to 0.5% in FY '09 from 0.1% in FY '08 while it has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts.

China's Premier Wen Jiabao says government will curb credit and land supply to curb new energy-intensive projects, as well as cut export-tax rebates, cut export quotas and use export tariffs to curb export growth for energy-intensive products. Wen's remarks in online question-and-answer session are reiteration of oft-stated policy goals; but coming after 1Q GDP growth faster-than-expected at 11.1%, they signal government remains in tightening mode, could more steps to slow economic growth

Lahore FM 07:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
the action on usdjpy might be the beginning of great jpy unwind-part umpteenth.

Syd 07:48 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY drops a bit after BOJ Fukui says rate hike possible even if CPI falls on-year (which data today show it's doing), and in other remarks also displays his strong desire to move ahead with 'normalization' of monetary policy through rate hikes. Says at news conference long-term CPI view more vital than short-term, special factors; adds, core CPI to rise more quickly in long-term, Japan economy likely to continue long-lasting growth, with potential growth rate about 1.5-2.0%.

Gen dk 07:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 07:10 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Purk tks i did not ask for short term but agree with u there but i feel if 163.30 brks upside moves to uncharted territory where diff to guess upside it culd be wild imho gud luck mate and tx for ur views as usual gl gt

Syd 07:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Spain Unemployment 8.47% In 1Q 07 Vs 8.3% In 4Q 06

The Netherlands Purk 07:04 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Still see a lot of quick bounces in the Loonert. But the 11160 is holding. 11211 is no level anymore now, because there is space under that. Only thing that is a real reverse is 11421....

The Netherlands Purk 07:02 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 05:51 GMT April 27, 2007

Just play the range. If you are looking for a lot of pips i suggest you wait. If you look for 20 just short at the end of the range...

Syd 06:54 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones technical analysis shows GBP/USD bearish on daily chart: Support violated at 1.9880 (uptrend line from March 14 low of 1.9210); MACD cuts negatively against exponential moving average to signal sell; stochastic bearish, falling from overbought level. Immediate target 1.9769 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from March 6 low of 1.9181 to April 18 peak at 2.0133), then 1.9657 (50% correction).

Hong Kong seek 06:51 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
See rumour of PBoC rate hike by 0.75% today on newsgroups.

tokyo ginko 06:32 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN CPI
========

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1585.htm

using 2005 as base year will tend to allow the current figure to appear weak and the weak CPI data may give the government an excuse to pressure the BOJ into delaying its next interest-rate increase.

Dublin Flip 06:30 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
re PAR

Dublin Flip 06:27 GMT April 27, 2007
Isky I guess Japanese statisticians have learnt from the experience of their western counterparts how to make real estate inflation (and technolgocial advancements) a deflationary force (albeit hedonic only) in calculating inflation. The way things are going the better things get in Japan the more deflation will be in the official numbers :)

London Steve 06:27 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 06:18 GMT -- 50% of CPI in Japan is based on the price of 1G memory card, which has fallen from about $100 to $10 in last 3 years. LOL

PAR 06:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Still cannot understand how Japan calculates inflation with all prices going up all over the world , the Chinese currency getting stronger and the yen getting weaker they still get negative CPI . By now Tokio should be the cheapest city in the world and it isnt . So something is wrong .

madrid mm 06:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

BoJ Policy Board keeps monetary policy unchanged by unanimous decision.

Focus on BoJ report 0600GMT, BoJ Gov Toshihiko Fukui.

Japan core CPI for March -0.3%y/y weaker than -0.2% exp. Nationwide Overall CPI came in -0.1%y/y. Tokyo Area Core CPI for April came in flat 0.0%, overall CPI came in +0.2%y/y.

Japan March jobless rate steady at 4.0%. all household spending +0.1%y/y vs exp +0.8%,

Japan Industrial Prod -0.6%m/m, vs mkt exp of +1.1%. Retail sales for March to -0.7%y/y, vs exp of -0.6%.

UK Telegraph: PM Tony Blair is considering announcing his resignation as Labour leader before May 3 local elections in an attempt to limit the expected electoral damage. Most predict after May 8. However, if he agrees to the earlier option, the announcement could could come next Tues, May 1, the 10th anniversary of his election as PM, or the next day, which is the eve of the local elections

San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says that downside risks have increased and there is "some" risks of recession. Yellen however adds that the economy should strengthen in second half of 2007.

Fed monetary policy flexibility is needed now as there are concerns on both growth and inflation. Best course for monetary policy now is "watchful waiting." Q1 GDP reading of 1.8% would not be surprising.

Econs Min Hiroko Ota sees no change in Japan's economic trend despite the weak output trend. Reiterates end of deflation is in sight.

Japan Chief Govt Spokesman Yasuhisa Shiozaki says govt stance after CPI data, end of deflation is in sight.

Citigroup wins control of Nikko Cordial, ttender gives it 61.08% and will spend $7.7bln in tender.

Market rumours of PBoC rate hike doing rounds on Friday again, after surprise new USD/CNY fixing low of 7.7139, despite "stronger" USD.

Busy day today ahead of Japan Golden Week holidays starting next Monday, and with most corporates away for the whole week, with series of Japanese data, BoJ meeting, report and news conference.

JPY came under selling pressure afte the weaker than expected CPI of -0.3%y/y, household spending, further compounded by weaker industrial output and retail sales. USD/JPY rose from 119.50-55 to 119.64 on weaker CPI, and then rose further to 119.75 taken highs, on good Japanese mega-city banks, regional banks buying ahead of the Golden Week fixing.

Talks of good weekend, and toushin demand, with the fixing set at highs of 119.80. But USD/JPY was not able to clear the good selling pressure from pair of large Swiss houses, together with large US money center banks, capped by the options related selling ahead of rumoured 119.75 triggers and more ahead of 120.00 triggers. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY then drifted down on long liquidation ahead of the BoJ decision.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY hit day lows of 119.36 and EUR/JPY to 162.40, from its all time highs of 162.84 during fixing, as the BoJ decision came in a touch later than expected, triggering talks of some surprises.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY then edged up again, after BoJ unchanged decision, but rumours of PBoC rate hikes, which peaked last Friday after strong 11.1% China Q1 GDP, making the rounds again today, ahead of next Tuesday's week Labour Day holiday.

GBP weighed by reports that PM Blair may resign on Tuesday, with offers coming in at 1.9920-30, while EUR/USD still finding bids 1.3550-60, with focus on downside surprises for Q1 US GDP today.

Nikkei -0.29% or -50.11pts at 17,379, while JGBs firmer on weak Japanese data, eye BoJ Fukui. 10-year yields -0.030% at 1.620%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.36/118.74, EUR/USD 1.3587/1.3608, GBP/USD 1.9893/1.9923, USD/CHF 1.2076/1.2091, AUD/USD 0.8256/0.8272, NZD/USD 0.7381/0.7409.

PAR 06:09 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Japan auto exports ¨+ 8.1 % on year in Mar.

Melbourne Qindex 06:07 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 0.6795* - [0.6832] - 0.6869*.

Melbourne Qindex 06:06 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The urrent expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 0.6795* - [0.6832] - 0.6869*.

moscow mike 05:58 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 27, 2007
Thanks Neighbor for the day levels. After decent study last night i decided not to do any "TB pick ups". Will wait for daily close below 161.40 (rising level) for the great kabbooom. LOL

Pardon me for double post

madrid mm 05:57 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Gm FX Jedi

"When we are unable to find tranquility within ourselves, it is useless to seek it elsewhere."
Francois de La Rochefoucauld

moscow mike 05:57 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 27, 2007
Thanks Neighbor for the day levels. After decent study last night i decided not to do any "TB pick ups". Will wait for daily close

Bodrum OEE 05:53 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
correction 2

OEE's Note:

this story can be material from the perspective of global markets in terms of risk perception of the emerging ones, therefore another editorial change is made to make it clearer OEE

---------------------------------------------------------

Presidential election in Turkey has potential to turn into a general one. There is a disagreement between parties as to how to read the constitution regarding the necessary majority for assembly to be able to convene to go through elections.
The leftwing main opposition Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi wants to take the matter into the constitutional court, which could lead to dismissal of presidental election, thus pave the way for general elections . The CHP claiming at least 367 member of the parliament is needed is trying to persuade rightwing parties and independents against the ruling Muslim democrats not to attend parliament's session tomorrow (April 27).

Mumbai NS 05:51 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Purk what do u think of euryen me think sell s/l 163.35 target open gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 04:08 GMT April 27, 2007

Where you Russki enough to take the 20 pips in the bugger?
16272-16250.
Watch the 16218 and 16318.

CT Cris 05:43 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Polokwane CS 05:39 GMT April 27, 2007
====
you are welcome , ask for my email.

usa-pa bjkj 05:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
usa data, 1.6 expected, 2.5+ cable, down, 1.2- cable, up?
any comments?

Polokwane CS 05:39 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:21 GMT April 27, 2007
Auckland Jerry 04:42 GMT April 27, 2007
====
you are right , market is for the stupids who are ready to
loose there money.

Cris your calls are excellent.They say " jealousy makes you nasty " . Don't let the bad remarks keep you away from this Forum.Chris can I get in contact with you ?

tokyo ginko 05:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
there will always be good calls and bad calls, the idea is to stay in the game. u can choose to follow or ignore one's call in this forum

i hope we can all remain professional in this forum such that it remains credible. pls refrain from personal attacks as it really serves no purposes.

Currently watching closely USD strength prior to release of US data later. may close up 1/2 positions to realise some gains for beer sessions later.

GT all.

CT Cris 05:21 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland Jerry 04:42 GMT April 27, 2007
====
you are right , market is for the stupids who are ready to
loose there money.

Syd 05:17 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY Shorts Recommended - Westpac
Growing caution among traders and analysts on carry trades may cap AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY into next week, when Golden Week holidays in Japan will thin trade. Westpac strategists hold small shorts in both crosses, look to add to AUD/JPY shorts at 99.75 with stop-loss above 100.50; now at 98.72. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY little moved in Asia for now; fall in AUD/USD, NZD/USD overnight matched rise in USD/JPY, leaving crosses near unchanged.

lkwd jj 05:15 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
possible source for usd rally thur.

Algerian Army Kills a Suspected Leader of Al-Qaeda Linked Group

By Paul Tighe

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Algeria's army killed the suspected deputy leader of an al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group blamed for bomb attacks in the capital, Algiers, two weeks ago that killed more than 30 people.

Auckland TOM 05:05 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland Jerry 04:42 GMT April 27, 2007
======
Cris is right to stop his posting for such traders whom not deserve that, Cris has his own trading .

Syd 05:03 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:41 GMT
This is my point everyone is ready jump on the US housing subprime story, but there will be a whole lot bigger one once the rates start moving up across Europe , did you see the Irish TV programe I put on here last week, many called over the top , but nothing funny about negative equity, we are probably at the top of the rate hike cycle over here and definitly close in NZ but europe has someway to go yet, and even the UK as I mentioned to you some time ago 50bps not out the way, just cann't understand why BOE hasnt raised rates and let the situation get to where it is, absolute madness

Auckland Jerry 04:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I do not post but one must be careful as bad karma does have a way about itself---

CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 25, 2007
===
you are right..market will not be for you.

Sydney ACC 04:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:00 GMT April 27, 2007
I wonder whether we have been concentrating on teh housing market on the wrong side of the pond.
This article and one earlier this week in the Telegraph indicated 800k units were built last year in Spain whereas demand amounted to 600k. Think of it 800k for a country with a populatioon of 40 million. In the USA new home sales are now about 900k per annum and that's for a country with a population of 300 million.
I like the bit about 4 million foreigners owning property in Spain. The Telegraph and the Irish Times also mentioned that Irish property stocks had suffered this week following the Sopanish meltdown.Also while some Europeans have found Spain and France too expensive they have bought in Rumania and Bulgaria where prices are cheaper.

Sofia mik 04:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Ottawa ,
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/

MIA 04:18 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Would be careful with EURJPY as there is major MACD neg divergence. Expect positive USD movement tomorrow with GDP report, after that probable continuation until NFP report next Friday

moscow mike 04:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 03:37 GMT April 27, 2007
You made my day start on the positive note. ROTFL.

Good trades!

Melbourne Qindex 03:59 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : A projected resistant level is positioning at 163.13 - 163.27. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 162.39.

Perth Randall El 03:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris- Farewell. We wish you well with your new career.
Trading is not for everyone.

USA Zeus 02:46 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:03 GMT April 25, 2007
Looks like the USD might strengthen against EUR and GBP. Will sell on blips


Well the lucky hellfire thunderstrikes worked.

USA Zeus 02:30 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:42 GMT April 27, 2007
Yo Bay- Thx a lot!- GT! :-)

HK [email protected] 02:24 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
.

Japan population is aging faster than in the west, so what do you expect them to spend on. Maybe all Japs are tired too from all kinds of stupid innovation from the electronic world. Much unaccounted spendings go for young ladies from Thailand the Philippines etc. That which is the real good stuff, so less remains for supermarket spendings. LOL

And Yen will go (likely today) to 120.

Bodrum OEE 01:59 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
correction

Presidential election in Turkey has potential to turn into a general one. There is a disagreement between parties as to how to read the constitution regarding the necessary majority for assembly to be able to convene to go through elections.
The leftwing main opposition wants to take the matter into constitutional court. The CHP is trying to persuade rightwing parties against the ruling Muslim democrats not to attend parliament's session tomorrow (April 27) when sufficient majority of 367 will not be present.

Bodrum OEE 01:57 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Presidential election in Turkey has potential to turn into a general one. There is a disagreement between parties as to how to read the constitution regarding the necessary majority for assembly to be able to convene to go through elections.
The leftwing main opposition wants to take the matter into constitutional court. The CHP is trying to persuade rightwing parties against the ruling Muslim democrats not to attend parliament's session tomorrow when sufficient majority of 367 will not be present. When and if attempts succeed with court deciding in favour of the opposition the parliament is dissolved and new government elections take place.

USA BAY 01:42 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Yo Zeus CONGRATS on your cad trade

Melbourne Qindex 01:36 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is still trading within the extreme levels of 1.1040 - 1.1226. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 1.1226 with an expected magnitude of 1.1133 - 1.1319 for the remaining period of this month.


Trading Reference : 1.1040 ... 1.1110 //1.1133* - 1.1164 - 1.1180 - 1.1195* - [1.1226] - 1.1257* - 1.1273 - 1.1288 - 1.1319* // 1.1342 ... 1.1412

Melbourne Qindex 01:27 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts 0.8193 is a significant level. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 0.8193.


Melbourne Qindex 23:55 GMT April 24, 2007
AUD/USD : The market was able to find support around the quantized level at 0.8235* and it is now trying to anchor itself at 0.8295*. The next quantized level is 0.8354*. The mid-point reference of 0.8295 and 0.8354 is 0.8324. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 59 - 60 pips(i.e. 0.8235*, 0.8295*, 0.8354*, 0.8413* and 0.8472* are separated by a constant value).


Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT April 23, 2007
AUD/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are :- 0.8206 - 0.8235* - 0.8250 - 0.8272 // 0.8295* - 0.8324 - 0.8339 - 0.8354* - [0.8383] - 0.8413* - 0.8428 - 0.8443 - 0.8472* // 0.8494 ...

UK Alex 00:47 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
An amusing piece of anecdotal evidence:
Lawnmower mfrs: Toro said its Q1 sales rose 29%, while Briggs & Stratton said the drop in sales was mainly due to lower sales volumes of lawn and garden equipment and portable generators, and lower unit shipments of engines. One explanation: As homeowners get hit with ARM resets, they are dropping that lawn service and doing it themselves.

USA Zeus 00:41 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Pittsburgh wjs 15:54 GMT April 26, 2007
Bodrum OEE 15:18 GMT April 26, 2007
Thank you for the kinds words.

moscow mike 15:15 GMT April 26, 2007
Semper Fi!

jkt-aye 15:56 GMT April 26, 2007
Zeus has open door policy- Friends are welcome anytime

Lahore FM 14:56 GMT April 26, 2007
Copy that- Nice trade!

Syd 00:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
With spot gold buckling overnight under USD recovery vs EUR as persistent failure to break $700/oz triggered liquidation, HSBC analyst James Steel tips more pressure on gold if USD extends gains, emerging market equities show further signs of weakness after strong few weeks. Notes statement yesterday from China NDRC outlining problems with too-rapid economic growth potentially gold-bearish; remarks add to growing expectations of imminent new policies to cool China growth (damping gold in turn); Steel says NDRC known to be influential in formulating policy. Spot gold last at $674.50, up 10 cents vs late NY

USA Zeus 00:37 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Bored so sold a little USD/CAD 1.1226 for +78.5 piptolas.
Ave cost still 1.11475

UK Alex 00:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:22 GMT April 27, 2007
ab// Apologies, was looking at Tokyo data by mistake. Housing -0.1% m/m, Furniture and household utensils -0.5% m/m.

tokyo ginko 00:35 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
BOJ announcment at 12-1 pm Tokyo time. No rate hike expected. .

Syd 00:33 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 00:08 GMT exactly my view, BOE have been putting off raising rates knowing the housing market will pop just before the elections once they do. Europe racing ahead while rates are 3.75% which are far too low, they used to raise rates by 50bps .

Analista Fx 00:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
tokyo interest rate decision its nearly? at what time?
thanks.

tokyo ginko 00:28 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi morning Kaprikorn

'do you happen to notice by any chance that usually volatility picks up and USDJPY buying emerges on approach of the 1:00 GMT Tokyo fix?

can you share any particular observations?'

==

one possible reason at 1:00 GMT , is the emergence of market participants. e.g. Singapore and Hong Kong.

I believe Singapore FX interbank size is bigger than those traded in Japan. That increases volatility. Aussie counterparts will also be calling these Singapore-based banks for price quotes.

==

btw - I still wonder how you were able to call that bullish trap months ago... you seem to know the market very good.

==

I believe this is thru years of observation and I used to quote FX interbank prices and hence, i may know a little how market players operate.

oh yes, btw buy nikkei pls

regards and have a good trade.

UK Alex 00:26 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:22 GMT April 27, 2007
ab, Housing was flat. Fuel, light and water charges -0.2% m/m.

hk ab 00:22 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 21:58 GMT April 26, 2007

I think it might be due to the fact that they take property value into their consideration. IF their property mkt keeps correcting from ultra-high value, this will balance all the mathematics there. I once heard that Japs need to finish the mortgage by 3 generations of a family......

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:16 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 00:11 GMT //
do you happen to notice by any chance that usually volatility picks up and USDJPY buying emerges on approach of the 1:00 GMT Tokyo fix?

can you share any particular observations?

btw - I still wonder how you were able to call that bullish trap months ago... you seem to know the market very good.

tokyo ginko 00:11 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
load up for nk, with BOJ on hold

fairfield JC 00:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
I find it kind of funny. All of the problems that we have here in the US are not so far off "possibly" for many other countries. Which supports the case of a strong USD across the board cause we have been dealing with this stuff and its potential wrath for a while now but other countries are just getting their first taste of the possibilities.

Zug Ted 00:08 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 21:58 GMT,, Deflation means lower yen, no?

Norway e.s 00:01 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Views USD/JPY ?

Syd 00:00 GMT April 27, 2007 Reply   
Mi casa su casa or que será, será...
You have to wonder just how difficult it will be for UK buyers to extricate themselves from disastrous foreign investments when, similar to time share developments, there's always a newer shinier version just ready off-plan to invest in. There have been seven interest rate rises by the ECB (European Central Bank) since December 2005 and up to 4 million foreign residents own a property in Spain alone. That's a Pamploma style bull run waiting to happen in anyones' language.

When the UK housing market finally turns many will begin to question just how they got sucked into re-mortgaging to enter the buying abroad mindset. Maybe reality will hit when the Spanish villa or apartment has lost the 20% deposit and the owners are sitting in the cheaper seats of the low-cost airline on their way to inspect their vacant and little used property. It's been vacant for months, the mortgage payment has doubled since 2004 and no-one's responding to the "buy, let or anything" pleading advert tucked away with thousands of others in the 'get 3 weeks advertising for the price of 2' section of the Exchange and Mart.

 




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