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Forex Forum Archive for 04/28/2007

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pd cumino 21:06 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 18:09 GMT April 28, 2007
people is always searching for a rule, a method that simply tell them what to do every time, every hour, every minute. This is true also for technical systems.
I have a different approach. I firmly guess that there aren't "every days" opportunities. I use many approaches, and many ways of trading, not only spot. However it's rare that I trade (speculatively I mean, because for the rest my job is hedging for firms) more than 30 times in a year.
One thing I look is COT. But keep in mind that COT (i.e. specs positions) can be misleading, for many reasons, one for example being that a spec. can cover a long position in the OTC market.
So you should look at COT AND other measures. One simple is RR 1m, often well correlated with positions. Then you should look at the "market in the medium to long term" (a simple guide can be 1m imp. vols and 12m imp. vols as well as future rates more in the sense of moves in changes in expectations than the level, and finally all that you can see about cross border flows, expecially official) because a speculative and exaggerated market can well last but only when there are more founded reasons.
Differently from many gurus, I say that technical players don't move "in primis" a market, i.e never the first move is due to them. It's logic because many studies show that they are the most risk-averse, and because they are just followers. Therefore they can exaggerate a move, but never the move is due to them. I wrote many years ago a study on that and for what I know there aren't convincing words around, except the words of some gurus without any serious evidence and made mostly to sell their books.

An answer to your question is difficult. Broadly speaking, if there aren't strong hidden reasons (clear reasons are always priced in, and the most common error I saw in 30 years is to derive forecasts from a simple right logic, forgetting that it is already priced), a move of specs positions exceeding the 250days+1stddev is mostly for continuation, not reverse. A move exceeding the 250days+2stddev is a warning for a possible reverse, expecially when Open Interest doesn't follow (BTW this is the reason because I publish specs pos./OI).
Of course all said is "very broadly speaking".

Last note: common indicators (stochastic, RSI or what you like more) are simply a function of prices, made more or less simple or complicated. It is uncorrect the story that they show overbought/sold conditions.
Prices are never overbought or oversold. People are overbought or oversold compared to prices, and BTW not all the people, but only a part. So the study of positions is crucial, in my modest opinion. GL

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
Scarborough TG 21:41 - USDX chart speaks volumes (81.35 close). “reserve” currency status is a joke in the making: increasingly, as Asians have hinted, we are in process of dis-integration of the coallition of the willing as support columns of the so-called reserve curency.

Bottom line: buy Gold on dips, sell usd on pops.

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:09 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 10:50 // tnx a lot!

btw - you did great analytics on COT - in those zipped files
may I ask you 1 more question on COT - I clearly was asking the wrong question in those post below..
>> Basically Commercials' and Non-Commercials' positions actually offest each other as for every contract sold there must be a buyer... So I'd like to understand is ther some way to fathom which party is actually guessing on the right direction?

>> Or - since COT is viewed as Contrarian indicator - we should always look for extreme Net positioning - which would whisper Caution (and possibly Reversal)?

Halifax CB 14:10 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South - you're an earlier rier than me :). And check yours as well. Let me know if you have any probs with it.

Atlanta South 11:19 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
When you have the time check your email. Tks & gt.

pd cumino 10:50 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:10 GMT April 28, 2007
A simple explanation is this:
Japanese corporates and exporters, i.e. usually large net sellers of USD/JPY, normally leave sell orders on USD/JPY even during holidays period.
On the other side Japanese investors, net buyers of USD/JPY, are dormant over this time. This creates a temporary demand/
supply distortion favouring USD/JPY downside.
Anyway don't rely too much in this simple logic.

madrid mm 10:17 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organization that fosters international monetary and financial cooperation; it serves as a bank for central banks. BIS issues tri-annual surveys on the FX market as well as extensive research on the components of the marketplace. Many FX traders use BIS (www.BIS.org) as a resource.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:10 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
A logical explanation why USDJPY may be trading lower during the Golden Week is that people need money to spend on the holidays - so they will repatriate some of the invested holdings - however I guess my understanding is far too small to discern the implications of the big picture..

Halifax CB 03:38 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 13:02 GMT April 27, 2007
BC - sorry for the late response, but thank you. Actually ritual suicide used to be common in the west as well, but it fell out of favour with the advent of Christianity. (altough some folks - particularly the Germans for some reason - bring it back from time to time...). The change in bankruptcy attitudes though is much more recent, maybe a decade or two or three....

Como Perrie 01:16 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:07 GMT April 27, 2007
well that was a bit too much for my taste... if you think so ..dont think other think the same way as you do...bit schizofrenic in classic medicine I guess

Syd 00:01 GMT April 28, 2007 Reply   
The Storm is rolling in ... across the Atlantic to the Costa's ... and then into the UK

Is it time to jump in?
An amazing piece of SciFi and Property Porn, probably also subsidized by property developers
LINK

Up to our eyes in debt we can't see
LINK

U.K. Home Prices Are `Very Inflated,' Tchenguiz Says
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. home prices, rising at the fastest pace in two years, are ``very highly inflated'' and at risk of collapsing, said Vincent Tchenguiz, one of Britain's largest residential property owners.
LINK

Loan standards for buy-to-lets slide
Lenders are offering mortgages to buy-to-let landlords without requiring any minimum rental cover or proof of income, even though returns have sunk to record lows in the 10-year-old market.
LINK

Great weekend reading

 




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