Forex Forum Archive for 04/29/2007

UK Alex 23:53 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
DJ * Hometrack: UK April House Prices +0.7% On Mo, +6.8% On Yr

UK Alex 23:51 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// Could be Euro/GBP cross buying which is driving cable.

USA Zeus 23:49 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:54 GMT April 27, 2007
Looks like GBP/USD might drop (more).


Guess so.

hk ab 23:39 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
the morning sell off is not boding well the carry traders...

Syd 22:46 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
NZ's Adjusted Mar Dwelling Consents -2.9% Vs Feb

Syd 22:28 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Huge rally for Turkish secularism
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6604643.stm

Syd 22:25 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Turkey’s constitutional court will on Monday begin hearing an appeal by opposition leaders seeking to derail the appointment of a new president, as a clash between the government and the armed forces threatens to bring about the country’s most serious political crisis in a decade.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c8082970-f680-11db-9812-000b5df10621.html

Pittsburgh wjs 22:14 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 17:34 GMT April 29, 2007

Good luck in your new non-profit endeavor... may it be rewarding to you.

Syd 22:00 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA

Tokyo -- A CHANGE IN corporate law that allows foreign companies to buy Japanese companies with their own shares may help spur merger-and-acquisition activity in the world's second-largest economy -- but not for the reasons many big Japanese companies seem to expect.

Beginning tomorrow, foreign companies will be allowed to conduct mergers through a subsidiary in Japan that can use shares of the parent to pay for a local acquisition target. This type of transaction, called a triangular merger because three entities are involved in the deal, is already allowed in the U.S. It is often chosen by companies that want flexibility in how they pay for an acquisition. Last week, U.S. bank Citigroup spent $7.7 billion to buy most of Nikko Cordial, Japan's third-biggest brokerage. It was the biggest foreign acquisition of a Japanese company ever, according to Thomson Financial.

GVI john 21:31 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3641	119.64	1.2065	1.9967	1.1156	0.8301	163.2
  High	1.3683	119.77	1.2108	2.0044	1.1227	0.8338	163.25
  Low	1.3586	118.88	1.2005	1.9867	1.1131	0.8239	162.23
04/27/2007							
Simple mva basis =>04/27/2007							
 5 day	1.3616	119.03	1.2063	1.9981	1.1193	0.83	162.07
 10 day	1.3597	119.06	1.2072	1.9997	1.1236	0.8326	161.75
20 day	1.3502	119	1.2131	1.9867	1.1362	0.8269	160.61
50 day	1.3338	118.41	1.2179	1.9651	1.1549	0.806	157.92
100 day	1.319	119.16	1.2271	1.9619	1.1627	0.7941	157.16
200 day	1.2998	118.1	1.2328	1.9293	1.1449	0.7789	153.51

GVI john 21:29 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Dallas GEP 21:08 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
closed EURO shorts

Syd 20:58 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
China clamps down on credit growth -- again

Syd 20:56 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Italy's Prodi - exporters suffering from high euro

Lahore FM 20:46 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 20:25 GMT April 29, 2007
yes will likely weigh heavy as gbpusd below 1.9995 is vulnerable.

Syd 20:27 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
How and Why the Chinese Shanghai Index could implode ... China Shanghai Implosion

Lahore FM 20:26 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 20:23 GMT April 29, 2007
GD all well i hope.as deep as the last time.let us see.i am prepared since friday.

lkwd jj 20:25 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm . will gbpjpy put pressure on gbpusd?

Syd 20:23 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Cold spots put freeze on house price boom
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2068060,00.html

Vienna GD 20:23 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:15 ... how far do you expect it to go FM?

Syd 20:18 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
China Ctrl Bank:To Raise Reserve Requirement Ratio 50 BPs
BEIJING China's central bank said Sunday it will raise banks' reserve requirement ratios 50 basis points, in the government's latest effort to strengthen liquidity management in its fast growing economy.

The People's Bank of China said in a statement on its Web site the reserve requirement rise will take effect May 15.

The latest move will put the reserve requirement ratio for most commercial banks at 11%.

This is the seventh time the central bank has raised banks' required reserves in the past year.

Lahore FM 20:15 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
the unwind begins!!!

LKWD JJ 20:14 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
pboc move helping yen early on. add in weak gdp and the usd might be on the ropes vs jpy.

LKWD JJ 20:10 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
top o' the mornin' to ya !

Syd 20:02 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Good Morning .

NZD/USD opens a touch higher, last 0.7414 vs Friday's 0.7401 local close, though ANZ Bank senior dealer Alex Sinton says Kiwi "looks vulnerable short term" given muted reaction to weak U.S. 1Q GDP, consumer confidence data Friday, which nudged EUR/USD to fresh post-creation high; "we didn't (rally), and neither did the AUD, so I think there's a few warning signals out on the NZD front this week." Notes weekend media report in Sunday Star Times on rising mortgagee sales may raise alarm bells; "I think the RBNZ warnings (on rising house prices, unsustainable high Kiwi) of last week are finally making the radar of offshore investors."

madrid mm 17:38 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Zloty, Peso, Won, Rand Never Looked Better to Currency Traders

By Liz Capo McCormick

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investments in emerging-market currencies, from the Mexican peso to the South Korean won, have never been safer.

The cost of options to protect against fluctuations in emerging-markets fell last week to a record low, a sign investors have grown more confident in the stability of developing countries, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Their currencies gained as inflation rates fell to the lowest in at least two decades and prices of commodity exports, from orange juice to soybeans, surged, according to International Monetary Fund statistics. That helped reduce budget deficits, shrink external debt by almost a third and boost growth, the data show.

Click here

Bodrum OEE 17:34 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Alright, this may be my last post.

First, situation in Turkey can be the trigger for a sell-off around the world.

Second those who think Turkish Lira is destined to a fall of a rock, should be careful. It may for a period, yet can wipe one out along the process because latest hurdle between 70 per cent of the public in Turkey and the remainder (governing) muslim democrats regarding the presidential elections may be resolved earlier than expected.

I thank you all for giving me a chance to get to know you and myself (alike) better.

There are good people here.

I think they are visible.

Time and again I may come back and ask your opinion of value.

Wish me luck in my endavour (of non-profit) ahead.

Love

Atlanta South 17:33 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Halifx CB
Ref 17:27/I understand & no hurry just when time allows.
Tks & gt.

Halifax CB 17:27 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Glad to hear it, Atlanta South. Right now I'm moving my stuff into DLL's (which should take forever, if not a little longer) so that I can use them instead of averagers in standard tools like MACD. I got your e-mail & will respond once a) I get my taxes done and b) the number crunchers on my PC stop (it makes it slow typing). Cheers....

Bodrum OEE 17:18 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 07:51 GMT April 29, 2007


I apologize for unfounded enthusiasm

Atlanta South 16:31 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Halifx CB
Ref 14:10/Tks & everythings fine. Will give an update on Wed
by email. GT

London NYAM 14:54 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Barring any substantial news cable looks to be preparing for another thrust back over 2.0000 that will likely work its way up to new highs. Possible panic covering could occur above the number giving an initial spurt to the 2.0200 breach. That may be all that’s left as there is growing technical evidence that suggest the pound is once again doomed to threepeat the previous tumbles. I doubt it will end up quite as precipitously, but if the move coincides with visible evidence the housing market and associated lending defaults are on the up, then the correction of cable could send us back to 1.75 area pretty soon.
So, I favour building small positions long cable and looking for signs that the upmove is exhausted to reverse more aggressively. Have fun.

CANBERRA JD 10:32 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
Strategies of the first few days of the week for me. Selling all up moves on a/u. Flat on e/u. Selling all up moves on g/u.

Selling all nzd/usd upward moves, and buying all usd/chf dips, based on my strategy, this is good for 20-50 pips per pair. Looking for 600 pips this week excluding hedged positions.. Lets see how we go..

madrid mm 09:25 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:03 GMT April 29, 2007
To answer your question Cris, i do not kow. However i would like to add that i posted this from the CME website . It refers to -

madrid mm 16:14 GMT April 24, 2007
Advanced Strategies for Foreign Exchange Traders by the CME
fwiw and for those who are interested, the CME is offering an Advanced Strategies for Foreign Exchange Traders.
You can register at Click here
" Advanced Strategies for Foreign Exchange Traders introduces you to advanced FX trading strategies and concepts. In a modular, flexible format, this course develops your understanding of trading strategies including long and short futures positions, hedging, options on futures, and more advanced spreading strategies."

Best of all ------ it is free 8-)

I took the course and they mentionned it and thought it interesting to post it for the Forum's benefit. Now anybody can use or not the info the way they like. Hpe it helps.

madrid mm 09:18 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
from previous post -
"China's foreign reserves grew by $1 million a minute in the first quarter, double the previous year's pace, on the export boom, foreign-currency swaps, and companies bringing home the proceeds of initial public offerings, economists said."

That 's what i call making money ! 8-)

pd cumino 09:18 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:59 GMT April 29, 2007
It is somewhat impossible to answer in few words because it is a so vaste subject and needs so different approaches.
Just to exemplify the same word "hedging" is uncorrect or at least vague. It can commonly refer to a simple passive strategy, which absolutely doesn't need a consultant payed by a firm.
I try to fix the main problems, but not sure i will be able.
Roughly you have to consider 1) those who cover there future revenues hedging progressively them. This is a passive strategy, and BTW is highly debatable in the long run whether it is good or it is better to do nothing. Indeed when a firm covers progressively their revenues it doesn't cover it's main risk, that is competitiveness.
2) An active strategy is to consider overall the competitiveness, which involve many problems (internal at the firm like commercial policy, production, technology, as well as financial needs and the attitude to risk, and external with the dynamic of prices, the demand, the competitors, external markets that work naturally as hedge, and of course fx). As you see it is a bit complicate, (BTW when I meet a possible future client I visit the firm many times for free only to explain what I do and to understand what they need).
Regard to the fact that you use a simple forward or options, it is relative to what you want (they want) about risk and about objectives. I mean that you "before" have to fix clearly all the scenarios relatively to competitiveness compared to attitude to risk, and "after" you choose the technical way that is better tailored and if possible the less rigid.
If your question is about options (techinque, theory, use etc..), there are many books where you can learn, but remember that a option is not a good solution per se, only an instrument. GL

madrid mm 09:12 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
China ordered banks to set aside more money as reserves for the seventh time in 11 months to try to prevent the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating.

Lenders must put aside 11 percent of deposits starting May 15, up from 10.5 percent, the central bank said on its Web site.
Click here

madrid mm 09:12 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- We live in a world of daunting economic challenges: debt imbalances, out-of-whack currencies, Chinese overheating, wobbly housing markets, erratic energy prices, terrorism, geopolitical risks, you name it.

Let's add another one to the list: women. Click here

HK RF@ 08:20 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   

.
Maybe this will twist the markets a little bit.

China central bank hikes reserve requirement 50 basis points, effective May 15
Sun, Apr 29 2007, 07:48 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com



BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China said Sunday it will raise commercial banks' reserve requirement by 50 basis points effective Tuesday, May 15.


The latest reserve requirement hike is the seventh such move since the middle of last year and the second in a little over a month. The PBoC has also raised interest rates three times in the last year.

....
Analysts estimate the reserve hike will remove the equivalent of 170 bln yuan in liquidity from the banking system, pushing the reserve requirement for most financial institutions to 11.0 pct


"The hike is aimed at enhancing liquidity management and to guide reasonable growth in money and credit," the central bank said in a statement on its website.


The hike will take effect one week after the end of the Labor Day holiday and will help soak up the extra liquidity the central bank left in the system to meet holiday demand.


The PBoC suspended its heavy sterilization efforts before the holiday to inject money into the banking system given that consumers normally make heavy withdrawals from banks to pay for transportation and shopping during the one-week May Day break (May 1 to May 7).


The PBoC considers reserve requirement adjustments a "fine-tuning" of existing monetary policy rather than any shift in its overall stance.

Bodrum OEE 07:51 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 21:06 GMT April 28, 2007


I appreciate the balance, ground and insight in your post. Maturity is a need in this forum (so is board level contribution). Especially compared to the mouth used here quite often. This attitude (problem) has become an industry standard. That alone is enough of a reason never associate myself with the identity of "trader" (there are other justifications).

I thank you.

Regards.

Bodrum OEE 07:49 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 21:06 GMT April 28, 2007


I appreciate the balance, ground and insight in your post. Maturity is a need in this forum (so is board level contribution). Especially compared to the mouth (used here quite often). This attitude (problem) has become an industry standard. That alone is enough of a reason never associate myself with the identity of "trader" (there are other justifications).

I thank you.

Regards.

Melbourne Qindex 07:38 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : My current weekly charts indicate that the market has a potential to tackle 1.0968. It will consolidate between 1.1045 - 1.1176 during early period of next week.

Melbourne Qindex 07:33 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.3624 - 1.3707 during early period of this week.

Melbourne Qindex 07:27 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : My current weekly charts indicate that the market is going to consolidate between 1.1051 - 1.1134 during early period of this week and it has a potential to tackle 1.0968.


Melbourne Qindex 01:36 GMT April 27, 2007
USD/CAD : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is still trading within the extreme levels of 1.1040 - 1.1226. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 1.1226 with an expected magnitude of 1.1133 - 1.1319 for the remaining period of this month.


Trading Reference : 1.1040 ... 1.1110 //1.1133* - 1.1164 - 1.1180 - 1.1195* - [1.1226] - 1.1257* - 1.1273 - 1.1288 - 1.1319* // 1.1342 ... 1.1412

CT Cris 07:03 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 10:17 GMT April 28, 2007
====
as you mentioned that many fx traders use BIS a resourse ,
it will be good to give examples for which resourses can be
useful for fx traders.

CT Cris 06:59 GMT April 29, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 21:06 GMT April 28, 2007
====
as your job is hedging for firms , and have good experience in that , appriciate to explain in details how to hedge by options or futures to protect positions in spot , and do you think its
workable or not, tia.