Forex Forum Archive for 05/02/2007

USA BAY 23:39 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

I am also waiting to short usd/cad at 1.11xx if seen. Still see cad as upside coming mainly from cad/jpy strength

USA Zeus 23:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like if GBP/USD 1.9860 gives way could see another push of USD strength. Still holding 2nd half from yesterday 2.0040 with a trailing stop. GT

USA Zeus 22:49 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 22:38 GMT May 2, 2007
jkt-aye 22:30 GMT May 2, 2007

Keeping in mind that odds always favor the position taken otherwise there is no reason to take a position. Also objectives may be quite different as well.
Looks like the rate of increase is approx 1 pip/hr since yesterday's low. GT!

jkt-aye 22:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
usdcad...my magnetic level on 1H at 1.1265 and 4H at 1.1285.

Gen dk 22:46 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 22:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB ... still have some on 1081, looking for 1101 sl 1061 now. don't want more risk as i'm not as strong as Zeus. gtgl

Lahore FM 22:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
now 1.1080 am looking for a rise to 1.1280 and 1.1390 over 2 to three weeks.

Halifax CB 22:38 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 22:30 GMT May 2, 2007
I hope it works out for you - I'm currently waiting to short around 1.1105 (and descending, at around .9 pips/hour...). I think this band could be traded both ways (I guess Zeus is proof of that), though the odds are still with the shorts.

Syd 22:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Canada Food Agency Says Mad-Cow Disease Found In Dairy Cow-CP

Halifax CB 22:32 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:27 GMT May 2, 2007
Agreed. & best of trades to you as well.....

jkt-aye 22:30 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus (on 1.1060-70 post) and CB (on 1.1064 post) bring me encourage to grab +20 geese (form 80 to 90 and 70 to 80).
cheers

Lahore FM 22:27 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 22:11 GMT May 2, 2007
would rather see the market's play on it.best of trades as always!

Syd 22:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
IMF's Rato Concerned Over Pension Investment In Hedge Funds
WASHINGTON International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato on Wednesday said he is concerned over the growing amount of capital that hedge funds are raising from pension funds.
"It may be that pension funds are using hedge fund investment to diversify their own risks, but a situation where almost one-third of the capital for institutions on the cutting edge of financial risks comes from institutions whose first priority is safe investments certainly bears watching," Rato said in prepared remarks to be delivered at the Council of the Americas Washington conference.

About 30% of investment in hedge funds now comes from pension funds, Rato said.
Rato said he "broadly" agreed with the approach to hedge fund regulation taken by President George W. Bush's interagency Working Group on Capital Markets. That group, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, has said the most effective way to manage systemic risk posed by hedge funds is to keep close watch on their counterparties, regulated banks and insurance companies. But that approach might need to evolve over time, Rato said. "Continued attention needs to be paid to ensure that market risks are being comprehensively assessed in an increasingly complex and leveraged financial system," he said.

Legislators and regulators also need to improve consumer protection in the U.S. mortgage loan industry, Rato said.

"With regard to the mortgage markets, it will be important to avoid a heavy-handed response that could unduly limit innovation or flexibility," Rato said. "However, from a financial stability perspective, it is important that credit discipline is restored and maintained."

Latin American governments should continue to reduce public debt, so that they are better positioned to weather potential financial market turmoil in the U.S., Rato said.

"Public debt remains high (in Latin America), at over 50% of gross domestic product on average," Rato said. "Ideally debt should be low enough for governments to have the freedom to implement a counter-cyclical fiscal policy if they need to."
DJ

USA Zeus 22:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 21:19 GMT May 2, 2007
Holding to my views last posted. GT

St. Annaland Bob 22:15 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, it will be really fine to have your EURJPY view for the rest of this week ... tia

Halifax CB 22:11 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:51 GMT May 2, 2007
re BOC Dodge:fwiw,if a CB chooses to let the market have its way then the market may turn around on its own.

I would think it would be more like inviting Osama to be my barber, and asking for a close shave.....

Lahore FM 22:03 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 22:00 GMT May 2, 2007
et,you mean 3565 of course!

Rye,NY et 22:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Uh..........er...........1.3565

AZUSA 4x-ed 22:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
The Canadian dollar's recent strength prompted Bank of
Canada Governor David Dodge to say on Tuesday that the currency has outpaced the bank's assumptions and that further gains would prompt the bank to take the currency's rise into account.
But Dodge also said the currency's rise since the beginning
of the year is mainly justified by strong economic fundamentals
and rising commodity prices, which Spitz took to the mean the
bank is not uncomfortable with the appreciation.
The currency also extended its 2007 highs against the euro
and pound, and its 14-1/2 year high against the yen during the
session.
Testimony before a Senate banking committee by Dodge and
bank Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins after the market close could drive the overnight performance of the currency. full article...

Rye,NY et 22:00 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...Yesterday's low touched critical Trendline support. If 1.3665 contains the downside today, then the market will break out of this consolidation back into the uptrend. A persuasive break below 1.3665 will signal a deeper pullback...All, of course, imvho...GL/GT

Lahore FM 21:51 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
re BOC Dodge:fwiw,if a CB chooses to let the market have its way then the market may turn around on its own.

Halifax CB 21:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Global-View GVI 21:28 GMT May 2, 2007
Just to second that view - one news item like that pays for a years worth of reading other side . Thx...

Syd 21:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - A weakening dollar will do little to reduce the massive U.S. trade deficit and might even make it worse, though Washington pressure on China to let its currency strengthen will likely persist, a former advisor to President George W. Bush said on Wednesday.

USA BAY 21:33 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD all set to test a new low.

Syd 21:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:18 GMT May 2 very wealthy beings, but from what I have been hearing lately they have opened it up to the unconversant with fewer funds available to lose

Global-View GVI 21:28 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
From GVI (you should contact us to get access)

GVI 21:25 GMT May 2, 2007
BOC Gov Dodge:
- Dodge said a C$ rise to .92 (1.0870) would not be considered extraordinary.
- It would not be a level that merits intervention

hk ab 21:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
we should see Dr. Q target 1.0910 pretty fast with this speed and thin condition.

hk ab 21:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
what squeezing the dlr/cad now? Zeus, adding?

Mtl JP 21:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd, what is interesting is who lends those "large sums of money" and what guarantees they demand on those "aggressive bets on financial markets"

Syd 21:09 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Hedge fund risk highest since LTCM, with a twist
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds trends are looking alarmingly similar to 1998, when the implosion of Long-Term Capital Management threatened the global financial system, the New York Federal Reserve said in a study released on Wednesday.The study represented a stern warning about the possible fate of the $1.4 trillion industry, although it added that low financial volatility helps to explain much of the apparent risk concentration. "Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998," according to a paper written by Tobias Adrian, capital markets economist at the central bank.
Hedge funds borrow large sums of money in order to take aggressive bets on financial markets. Many operate heavily in the derivatives market, estimated at around $17 trillion, raising fears about possible future shocks.

Similar trading strategies can heighten risk when funds have to close out comparable positions in response to a common shock," the economist Adrian wrote. censored

GVI john 21:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3597	120.12	1.2139	1.9895	1.1083	0.8258	163.33
High	1.3613	120.28	1.2190	1.9998	1.1143	0.8283	163.39
Low	1.3560	119.47	1.2117	1.9871	1.1065	0.8220	162.53
05/02/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/02/2007					
5 day 	1.3622	119.72	1.2099	1.9953	1.1128	0.8284	163.06
10 day	1.3614	119.17	1.2079	1.9985	1.1174	0.8307	162.23
20 day 	1.3542	119.20	1.2120	1.9897	1.1289	0.8288	161.35
50 day 	1.3367	118.39	1.2164	1.9676	1.1516	0.8084	158.23
100 day	1.3205	119.22	1.2270	1.9630	1.1613	0.7955	157.41
200 day	1.3011	118.16	1.2324	1.9314	1.1445	0.7798	153.75

MLT PA 20:50 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Milan - Man United 3-0

Forza Milan!

Fairfield JC 20:33 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:41 GMT May 2, 2007

I was wondering the same thing but I think I recall him saying he was traveling or something. Time will tell.

LKWD JJ 19:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
anyone heard from oil man lately?

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:51 //
first for my own sake - I had a Stop & Reverse point - I had to be disciplined and respect my analysis - this would get me out fresh and I could ride the upmove... this is just to point that discipline is most imortant..

I saw divergence caused by the EURGBP - the move to 6830 helped the EURUSD and EURJPY move up and the GBPUSD and GBPJPY move relatively to the first down

I see on hourlies GBPJPY MAs and MACD already turned down while EURJPY momentum is still strong...

Napoli DC 19:16 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
JPM will build a new "plant" in the city with 4 trading floors, each wide like Wembley stadium....

Van jv 18:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
concerned about a few % inflation?

Overall, official Zimbabwe's inflation surged last month to 2,200 percent, the highest in the world.

melbourne DC 17:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
old news ..
Rivals move in on Germany's cosy think-tank club
FT by hugh williamsonin berlin
Published: May 1 2007 03:00 | Last updated: May 1 2007 03:00
Germany's cosy club of five top economic research institutes faces stiff competition from foreign think-tanks following Berlin's decision to abolish one of the country's consensus-based policymaking traditions.
Four think-tanks from the UK, Austria and Switzerland have put in bids to advise the government on its next economic reform steps and to draw up six-monthly economic projections - work that for more than 50 years has been performed by an elite handful of German researchers.

dc CB 17:30 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Stock lottery tickets are much more expensive today.

USA BAY 17:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I think we may see cad/jpy to 114 in coming weeks. Any thoughts. tia

lkwd jj 17:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
not intended.

GENEVA DS 16:45 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
consolidation phase should be over soon in FX Markets.... new targets for next 72 hours... EURUSD 13775, GBP 20275, CHF 12155, AUD 8425, and JPY 12175..... gl .....

nyc joel 16:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
jj

concessions

food for thought

quite a pun

LOL

lkwd jj 16:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
as the baseball season began in April maybe new hires to operate stadiums ie concessions ticket sales etc... does anyone have a seasonal avg for spring as opposed to fall? just food for thought..

USA Zeus 16:30 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
What will the fractalized non-linear quadratic polynomial offer next? Will take a fresh look later.

London NYAM 16:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
cable retrace targets 19946/75/95 inside plummer targets suggest 54/91 and off wa extensions from 1.9917 suggest 47/95...so 47 and 95 look like clusters.

Como Perrie 16:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
RBC Capital Market economists have just recast both their Fed and BOC monetary policy view. The economists now see the BOC initiating a tightening cycle starting in December 2007, rather than waiting to tighten in Q3 2008.

St. Annaland Bob 16:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 16:05 GMT May 2, 2007

don't count on too many as it's almost not affordable to get there ;)

Sofia mik 16:05 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Como
I feel in next carnaval in Venice we will see doll called Trisherina and many citizens of Eu will like to f.. her

Como Perrie 16:05 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:59 GMT May 2, 2007

But think will do good in a general revision of the previous century jobs and living style energy abuse organization. 30 pct of all public and most private jobs might be done from home nowadays with heavy public spending spared imo.

USA Zeus 16:05 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:02 GMT May 2, 2007
Guess that justifies higher commodity prices there- plol

moscow mike 16:04 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT May 2, 2007

Dear sir, why i do always have a feeling that you are a school teacher? Could you clarify pls...

Halifax CB 16:03 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Just a note on the stats - 1 deviation band should contain about 70% of trades, a 2 deviation band (60 p, +/- ATM) about 95%, assuming an approximately normal distribution around the trend. Usually a very weak assumption...

St. Annaland Bob 16:03 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR 1.51 per liter here in Holland

Como Perrie 16:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:59 GMT May 2, 2007

Distances and car usage different, smaller here.

USA Zeus 15:59 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:53 GMT May 2, 2007

That's approx $6.69/gallon!!!
At those prices the US would be crushed.

Halifax CB 15:58 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
But we do seem to be coming to the end of the run, so I would take that with a few pounds of salt...

Halifax CB 15:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT May 2, 2007
1.1064, with tranding band (1 deviation) of about +/- 30pips.

Como Perrie 15:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 15:50 GMT May 2, 2007

Frankly would love to see 1.5 eur a liter or 1.7 in extreme cases if oil goes clearly above 70/80 this summer.

Como Perrie 15:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 15:50 GMT May 2, 2007
around 1.3 euros a liter in Italy and rising.

London NYAM 15:51 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Kap// Starting to look like your EURJPY position might come back now. targeting 163.00 first. Have to see 162.39 low get whacked before one could expect significant more declines. But that may be better placed after a break. At least from my view but ignore that as you wouldnt want to borrow styles. Bad idea.

Sofia mik 15:50 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
COMO
EU driver happy?

Vienna GD 15:49 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Thx FM ... hope you are well ... and your trades as well!!!

Como Perrie 15:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
US motorists should prepare for record prices for gasoline this summer, according to Sam Bodman, US energy secretary. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday after addressing the national Association of Farm Broadcasters, Mr Bodman said the government was not considering action, such as relaxing environmental fuel regulations, to relieve strains on supply but admitted that he was concerned about gasoline prices.

Sofia mik 15:46 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
F1 down move suzuka rally

HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:41//According to your rocket science formula, how low do you think $/CAD will go in the next 24 hours? tks

Bangkok bkk 15:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:02 GMT May 2, 2007
bkk/exited your short yet?
---------------------------------

Not yet ab, still holding long @ 119.35 looking for 120.35 - 40 to exit long.

ab// any views on EUR/USD pair? please share.

I am quite confuse with EUR/USD direction.
Since I 've closed out my eur long at 1.3579 and then EUR is trading above 1.3600 again. IMHO.. this pair should trade lower to at least 1.3530 but still not sure about it.

USA Zeus 15:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Oil getting drilled- Now off 1.30 LOL

Halifax CB 15:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Set to re-enter $Cad shorts at 1.1119, 1.1155, SL's still around 1.230 (descending at 0.90 p/hr - note the slow upward acceleration which has decreased descent rate by about 5%. )

moscow mike 15:39 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
on my chart there are five 30Minutes candles with the same high at 163.37... Something is cooking?

Lahore FM 15:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
both are buys GD for 682/85 and 13.70 from present levels.

Vienna GD 15:27 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM ... pls what is your view ond gold and silver here?

Como Perrie 15:26 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Paulson is speaking so market is bit slow currently.

London NYAM 15:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM// comming from you that means a tremendous amount. Your trades are often unreal. Thanks and regards.

Halifax CB 15:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - you could be right... I should have waited for it to fail on the hourlies (which it didn't) before putting in my SL. I figure the failure area to watch (for reversal) is the 55-80 zone.

Lahore FM 15:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:17 GMT May 2, 2007
yep that might be the case.

Halifax CB 15:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Closed too quick on $CAD, lesson learned....

ist eyyo 15:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I need a trading technic.can you write please

USA Zeus 15:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD 1.1060-70ish looks like a high probability intraday reversal zone.

tokyo ginko 15:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:47 GMT May 2, 2007
hi - do you have an idea if we see now a top in USDJPY around 120 - 120.30 -- will it drag the EURJPY down?

or there is strong interest to break the barriers at 1.6.35/50?

===
Your question is a million dollar question. " if we see now a top in USDJPY around 120 - 120.30"

Unfortunately I do not have the exact answer.

What I can know is that, this week is Golden Week in Japan, so FX activities is at its minimal, corporates, exporters etc. Not that these are gonna create much of an impact on the global FX activities. I believe 'hot' money is bigger and tends to lead the direction of the market, apart from central banks.

As for me personally, anything above 120 is a good opportunity to start building up one's yen position for medium to long term. Fundamentally, the Japanese economy is doing ok and I have observing foreign bodies snatching up domestic assets. Nikkei, by comparision, is still a lagger in the global equities market and by 3rd and 4th quarter, it should be trading new highs.

Lastly, if yen were to strengthen across the board, no doubt it will bring eur/jpy with it, unless we see very very strong inflationary pressure on the EUR zone.

Lahore FM 15:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:16 GMT May 2, 2007
NYAM just wanted to let you know that i am an avid reader admirer of your input here on ff.gtgl.

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:14 GMT May 2, 2007

Or rising inflation in US wd add

London NYAM 15:16 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
It may be that the new thesis on the UK/Cable is that higher rates may be innevitable but will this hasten the housing markets (particularly buy-to-let) demise?

Lahore FM 15:14 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
it looks the only way to stop eurusd rise to 1.37 and gbpusd on a frwesh high is to bring on carry unwind.

Como Perrie 15:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Cable key supportive area between 1.9860 to 1.9810. Important those to hold, even if overall UK officials talking of a slowing inflation to come this somewhere this year in UK. Will It resume higher ahead of next days is doubtful at this point. Side to lower imo.

Lahore FM 15:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 15:01 GMT May 2, 2007
closer to 1.2110 can be a long.eurusd and gbpusd downside looking suspect so be careful with rigid stops in.

Como Perrie 15:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Also Blair to resign withing next months, somewhere before September. But no idea if any cable effect related, might be.

Lahore FM 15:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
1.112 imortant on daily close basis for 1280 move.

hk ab 15:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry should be dlr/jpy long.

hk ab 15:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
bkk/exited your short yet?

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry for the waste - should I have respected my first designated SL level at 162.98 - it would all be ok
so SL rules are very important..

USA Zeus 15:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:18 GMT May 1, 2007
Intraday Cycle indicator says USD about to shine soon

Took 140 on cable from the magical cycle indicator. Leaving remaining at b/e for a bigger shot.

lkwd jj 15:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:08 GMT May 2, 2007
lkwd jj 04:06 GMT May 2, 2007
load dips for higher still.

same story for chf? has come down 5
0-60 pips off 85

Como Perrie 15:00 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EurUsd Key Supports are at 1.3535/40 to 1.3480/90

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
well - this is typical now - I'm short at mid of the range and it tests the top of consolidation channel... so it is hard to decide should I leave it to retrace inside... or play the breakout - however breakouts are not favored in rangy market or maybe I operate under the wrong impression/assumption that we will be ranging till Friday..

ist a 14:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
do you an idea for eur usd now 1,3595 .. short or long thank you

slv sam 14:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd we test 3640/50 one more time before 1.34 level imho!GT

ist 14:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hello

Como Perrie 14:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Report: Iran's Former Nuclear Negotiator Arrested in Tehran

Wednesday, May 02, 2007 AP

hk revdax 14:49 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:47//$/JY being down means eur/jy going up...imo

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:48 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko // pls excuse me - I mean the question for you mostly because of your location... if you don't mind

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hi - do you have an idea if we see now a top in USDJPY around 120 - 120.30 -- will it drag the EURJPY down?

or there is strong interest to break the barriers at 1.6.35/50?

tokyo ginko 14:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
cme prices down ?

Halifax CB 14:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Srry, hard stop. I'll change it to trailing if $Cad moves down to the 60's area.

USA Zeus 14:42 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:41 GMT May 2, 2007
Should read 1.14

USA Zeus 14:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Milan f.i 14:36 GMT May 2, 2007
Guess again 11.4 and change and yes magically been positioning and repositioning for what is coming- all while skimming cream off the top.

madrid mm 14:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- MasterCard Inc., benefiting from a surge in credit-card charges, said first-quarter profit climbed 70 percent to a record as consumers charged more purchases, sending the stock to its biggest gain this year.

Are we living on borrowed time ? 8-) Or is it FX traders borrowingg to play the market ?

Halifax CB 14:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Putting in a trailing SL on $CAD short at 1.1.085 (my trendline)

USA Zeus 14:39 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:35 GMT May 2, 2007

All buds aside keep buying USD/CAD's on dips and you'll see how the cycle will change. All we need now is for nyc to ask "Serious question here- Do you really think you can make money going long in a down trend?" LMAO

Milan f.i 14:36 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:31 GMT May 2, 2007

your magical system is a losing one, you buy from 1,15!
there is no sense!

hk revdax 14:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:31//My un-magical system says that buying $/CAD today is like sticking up one's bud to be tested...LOL

USA Zeus 14:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Magical CAD system says keep buying dips.

melbourne DC 14:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 14:17 GMT May 2, 2007
thx . have a nice day .

HK Kevin 14:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, it will be a different story for rest of the week if USD/CAD holds 1.1047 today.

London NYAM 14:22 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Revdax//Judging from that tepid reaction so far, you could be right on.

HK Kevin 14:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Just cloed half short Kiwi from 7434 last night at 7383.

hk revdax 14:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
IMO...$/JY has already topped out and what will follow is a across the board decline of US$.

Gold Coast Martin 14:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:14 GMT May 2, 2007
Getting my email via Jay is ok...g.l

hk ab 14:16 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
should NOT change the order of that dlr/cad short !!!!!
magical 5 dma works!

Think 1.09xx maybe printed today...

GVI Survey Analysis by Cunmino 14:15 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Monthly Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino...

Click to View

GVI Forex Survey 14:11 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
In the May monthly forex spot rate sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has worsened. The three-month ahead mean currency spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3660 from 1.3365 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (April 30 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3660.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was weaker in the EUR/USD at 48 from 54 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forex spot rate forecast improved to 118.17 from 116.11 one month ago. The USD/JPY currency spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 119.45. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned USD neutral. It was 48 after 41.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $69.00 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $65.65 estimate.

In a special question, 27% said they felt that the ECB refi rate (3.75%) would peak at 4.00% or below in 2007. 48% saw a 4.25% top, and 25% said it would reach 4.50% or higher.


For complete detailed survey results including history see:
monthly forex spot rate survey

St. Annaland Bob 14:10 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY: SELL orders running from 12026 to 12056 with 3 pips intervals ... target: new socks ... happy trade!

London NYAM 14:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Of the majors the so far cable getting hit the hardest it seems

Global-View AFX 14:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
From AFX (Contact us if you want to take our special offer EMAIL

*ALERT: US MAR FACTORY ORDERS +3.1%; EX-DEFENSE NEW ORDERS +3.5%

*US MARCH NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS EX-AIRCRAFT IS LARGEST RISE SINCE SEPT 2004

*US MARCH NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS UP 11.8 PCT

*US MARCH NON-DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS EX-AIRCRAFT UP 4.8 PCT

*US MARCH DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED HIGHER TO 3.7 PCT RISE VS 3.4 PCT PRIOR

UK Alex 14:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
* US Factory Orders +3.1% In Mar; Consensus +2.2%

UK Alex 14:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
* Mar Durable Goods Revised To +3.7% From +3.4%

madrid mm 13:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
This may be an ominous sign: Bankers Life Insurance has sued Credit Suisse over subprime mortgage-backed bonds that apparently have soured. The securities of course were investment grade when they were bought. But a subsequent downgrade resulted in the buyer losing up to $800 million. There could be more downgrades in the works. Standard & Poor's has said it may downgrade residential mortgage-backed securities transactions if the environment continues to deteriorate. We may see suits after every downgrade. Such suits would strike many as in the nuisance category. Downgrades after all are a part of Wall Street life--it happens. Of course, Bankers Life is also charging that Credit Suisse withheld material information about the bonds, which, if disclosed, would have resulted in a substantial downgrade of the Moody's rating. Presumably, the buyer would not have bought it then.

Financial News Online

HK Kevin 13:56 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:47 GMT, thank you.
Hk revdex, enjoy your day.

madrid mm 13:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I am not sure how big are the black boxes for this YEN !?!!? lOl
Seems more like dark forces at play 2 me !!! 8-)

moscow mike 13:52 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:37 GMT April 25, 2007
moscow mike 07:40 GMT April 20, 2007
Gold is in the real hot zone on my daily chart and is set for a $40+ correction under 691.
------------------
now fell below daily trend line for the second day and has a good potential to reach 66x
=======================

Well well... Looks like it is a good point to gather some pips here....

Covering half position +21$

hk revdax 13:48 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin //$/CHF, $/CAD and Eur/Jen are doing OK while $/JY is a dog but may change its mind soon. May you have your day tomorrow.

Gold Coast Martin 13:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:38 GMT May 2, 2007
With gold and other precious and base metal futures becoming more liquid ,such propriatory trading is becoming more dominant ...same in stocks....the "new trend is to apply these systems to all asset classes of ëmerging markets" which is also another way to test a new blackbox before it is used in the more mature markets(US.,EU,Japan)...in other words emerging markets are been used as "guinea pigs" to test these systems , while generating good profit at the same time.g/l....

Halifax CB 13:45 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Hi Zeus - I base my price speed on that of the trend line, and treat variations to either side as noise, like one would do by comparing the outputs of a moving averager at different times to get the speed.

Re the book - just joking there; it is a good book...& I do basically agree that the past is not a great indicator of the future. But it's sort of like what Churchill said about democracy - the worst system in the world, except for all the others...

UK Alex 13:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Chips with everything for traders

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
data event risk
14:00GMT - Mar Factory Orders mrkt: 2.2% last: 1.0%

HK Kevin 13:38 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT, very useful info for every trader. Does such kind of black bodx system also exist in the gold and stock market?

Halifax CB 13:36 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:31 GMT May 2, 2007
.....time for your astrophysicist daughter to enter the forex fray...she will do well....cheers..

Nah, wouldn't work - she'd get involved, find some really intriguing part of it to study, go off & write up interesting papers, and come back a year later with an elegant and precise solution. Meanwhile, I'd go broke :)

The Netherlands Purk 13:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Waiting and waiting for a nice entry in the bugger, no signs of fatigue yet. Loonie undecided, e/u waiting for judgement...

USA Zeus 13:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:12 GMT May 2, 2007

MM- Thx. Sometimes I think that I’m getting old until I realize that makes many here prehistoric.plol

Agree that systems should be made simple from a decision tree perspective. Even though some of what is used in the system can be complex the outputs should be straightforward.

Halifax CB 13:15 GMT May 2, 2007
You lost me there. Larry did not offer any “indicators” in the book. I believe the point to be made is that we can look back and perfectly describe something that has already happened but that does not mean much, if anything, about the future.

BTW- This current USD/CAD sell off leaves the pair gaining about 1 pip/hr from approx 24 hrs ago, while you said it was falling by about the same measure. Any account for this activity in your readout? Seems like it might be a neutralizer until it shifts one way or the other?

NYC 13:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo - black box systems are not confined to retail and trade across all time frames. I am sure some serious money is being run that way.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
some divergence in eurjpy and gbpjpy - caused obviously by the eurgbp buying - that's why eur is up while gbp down.. if I observe correctly..

Gold Coast Martin 13:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:21 GMT May 2, 2007
These days market mover black boxes tend to trade in a similar direction at the same time hence limiting a market reversal against them within any prescribed timeframe....a type of "market collusion" if you want to define it. True about the "learning the math" human intelligence.....time for your astrophysicist daughter to enter the forex fray...she will do well....cheers..

Oakland daimyo 13:29 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Judgement of these black box systems is unimportant. The point is to learn how to accomodate these systems into your view of market movement and crowd psychology. For instance, use black boxes to help you get better entries (sell resistance in downtrend or buy on dip in uptrend). It is my belief that most of these black boxes are being run by bucket shops who use them to trade against their so called clients. Nothing wrong with this practice as the bookies in Vegas do it everyday. The point is to maintain the "line" not bet on direction per se. A dealers sole job is to generate order flow on both sides of the trade and play on customer off the other thereby leaving them mkt neutral. Of course it seldom works exactly perfect and that's when we see swift price level adjustments.

St. Annaland Bob 13:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
btw, you can trade FX even via SKYPE as they allow to change currencyper the phone calls one makes ... but without leverage yet, yet! ... lol

Mtl JP 13:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
zeus, nothing historicaly random about Canadian submarines floating and coastguard helicopters sinking.

Halifax CB 13:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007

You left off one alternative - which is to learn the math....Lol...Off hand, two things I have noticed is that most publications in the area tend towards rather brittle systems, and the approaches are rather similar. That leads to a reasonable potential for catastophic collapse, similar to what happened when program trading first got started, but on a larger scale. Could be interesting times ahead :)

St. Annaland Bob 13:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007

you must have very quick clicking fingers, it's quite opposite to how Alicia loves the fingers to work.

HK REVDAX 13:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB //Kindly go to the Help Forum and be of some help to me. Tks

UK Alex 13:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
RBC Capital Markets have revised their forecasts for the Fed's target rate this year. Analysts now no longer expect a rate cut mid-2007, but still see the bank hiking by 50bps in 2008, bringing the level to 5.75%. RBC's move came prior to the release of ADP's latest jobs estimate, which put the increase in private-sector payrolls in April at 64,000, well below expectations and the previous month's 98,000 gain.

Halifax CB 13:15 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Well here's my $CAD chart....Note that I've started moving the SL off to the 4 deviation mark rather than the slower trend line as they are getting to close together as $CAD no longer seems to be accelerating, while the volatility is picking up... Other than that, same old analysis, and ticking along at about a pip/hour down...
LINK

Zeus - if what he says is true, then you should not pay attention to it because his work was done in the past and is hence not an indicator for the future :)

melbourne DC 13:14 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007
g'day good to hear from you. Trust u have been well. Thanks for your comments. down here, the cfd providers have been providing easy facilities for options trading . any way i can contact you? thanks.

Makassar Alimin 13:14 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007

thanks Martin, that explains it, i thought i was the only one feeling something different nowadays, certainly very true re. less and less 200-300 moves

madrid mm 13:12 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus , yes indeed. In english they say i believe " You can not teach an old dog new trick."

And no, I am not saying you are an old dog. lol 8-)

I read the book you mentionned. 8-)

If you follow a system or build your own keep it simple.

Simple systems work best and are far better than complicated ones. FWIW

Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading since 2006 has seen the introduction of more "black box"propriatary systems been adopted by more and more market movers. This has resulted in more daily reversals within the week as these systems trade the market in either direction on a daily basis in 45-90 pip increments...which means that it is harder for the market to drop/rise 200-300 in a straight line and harder for traders to hold a trade for that long. Add the extra liquidity to the market by the entry of new players and this provides more "food"for the black boxes everyday. So for "stay at home"traders it is becoming harder and harder every week/month/year to produce consistent profit off such a market. This extra increasing liquidity these days works against the smaller traders, while increasing the winning propability of these automated systems. It is becoming a on sided market....Solution against this is to trade shorter time frames and to trade longer term options. This way , the small trader trades "with the black box daily flow" and at the same overcomes the daily noise produced by them via option plays.....g/l to all...

London NYAM 13:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Alex// Ive been out of fx for 5 years after being in for 8. So new is relative. I could be wrong, but stop loss running was less efficient then. Or so it seems to me now.

melbourne DC 12:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 12:41 GMT May 2, 2007
you forget the news provider are also beneficiaries :)) i m looking for trade machine that can auto-execute trades based # released instantaneously. That's the future of trading :)))

USA Zeus 12:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Well Happy Day!

So I was in the middle of my annual read of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator when Larry said something that stood out-

"The analysis of the week that had passed was less important to me than the forecast of the weeks that were to come."

Reminded me that no matter how we package historical data into cute wavelette counts, trading bands, oscillators etc, none of it determines the future- Don't be fooled by historical randomness.

UK Alex 12:56 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:50 GMT May 2, 2007
There's nothing new in that. All financial markets are the same.

Halifax CB 12:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Well, here's some details on how not to trade USPJPY - I have to move my TP by hand, so when I head to bed I usually just estimate where it will be in 7 or 8 hours, and put it there. Well, last night I forgot to do this on the pair ( it would have been set in the mid 60's), the results being this delightful JUBB plot. Note where my SL got caught, while my TP was set at 45 ( about 2 points lower than it actually got). Good math, just bad trading, so not all hope is lost....

St. Annaland Bob 12:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
this zero sum game never been so dangerous as small money is big our days

madrid mm 12:51 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
-Trading always comes down to timing.

-i am curious but would it be true to say that currency crosses present the best range-bound trades ?

London NYAM 12:50 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I agree. I this market has turned into a stop-cleaning machine.

RIC fxq 12:45 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 12:41 GMT

excellent points and also add in the sheer number and speed with with wire services post estimates, rumour numbers, etc. plus the number of prop traders, CTA's, funds, etc. that are in the game today vs even a little as two or three years ago and you have another piece of the puzzle in place.

Oakland daimyo 12:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
It never ceases to amaze me how fixated this current mkt environment is on economic reports &/or news. This type of flip flop trading has been promoted by brokerage firms who are the only beneficiaries of this type of guesswork. I personally believe that with the increase in the number of small retail accounts, intraday noise has picked up significantly. The 25 x 3 P&F chart will help "quiet down the noise". As it relates to price movements prior to reports, traders must remember that mkts are a discounting mechanism, so therefore, reports/ news are priced into the market before release. No wonder so many traders get shaken out by whipsaws and false breaks. Take a view on the market, place your bet, set your stop, let it ride. Emotional trading leads to emotional losses. I'm just trying to help the spec crowd deal with the natural ebb and flow of the markets. Markets move in cycles on multiple time frames. Markets are fractal in nature. Good trades

Melbourne Qindex 12:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:37 GMT - USD/CAD : It is heading towards 1.0910.

HK REVDAX 12:37 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex //Any idea on $/CAD? TIA. By the way, I heard Australia is going to dry up soon.

Melbourne Qindex 12:36 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : The next upside targeting point is 1.0980.

Sofia mik 12:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ehh, Greeny where are you -100/150pipitos move down&up on news

melbourne DC 12:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
but then , it could be i got sharper senses now :))

CANBERRA JD 12:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I have shorted a/u at the top of this spike. Going for 8200.. Good day chaps.

Melbourne Qindex 12:33 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The market is going to stablize around 0.9167.

melbourne DC 12:29 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ya .. as in didn't seems that obvious like 2-3 yrs ago ... not complaining just curious :))

NYC 12:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
DC seems to happen much too often these days

Halifax CB 12:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Alas, my USDJPY short from last night died of a bad case of stop-loss that resulting from not listening to the math ...USDCAD continues meandering down the old mill stream at about 1 pip/hour....Details to follow.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC //
noticed many times - especially b4 very important releases...

Melbourne Qindex 12:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my weekly cycle the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1134. A projected resistant range is expected at [1.1138] - [1.1151]. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate between 1.1051* - 1.1134*. A projected supporting level is located at 1.0968* - 1.0982*.

melbourne DC 12:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hmmm ... seems nowadays price movement moments b4 the data release is rather good indcator of data outcome.

Dallas GEP 12:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Shorted USD/JPY 120.12

UK Alex 12:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
* ADP-Macroeconomic Advisers See Apr Payrolls +64,000

GVI john 11:48 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3617	119.72	1.2137	1.9996	1.1105	0.8287	163.02
High	1.3674	119.86	1.2164	2.0074	1.1116	0.8328	163.31
Low	1.3590	119.07	1.2052	1.9981	1.1049	0.8274	162.83
05/01/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/01/2007					
5 day 	1.3630	119.43	1.2081	1.9978	1.1141	0.8299	162.77
10 day	1.3613	119.02	1.2071	2.0001	1.1195	0.8317	162.00
20 day 	1.3531	119.13	1.2123	1.9890	1.1314	0.8284	161.12
50 day 	1.3358	118.40	1.2169	1.9669	1.1526	0.8077	158.14
100 day	1.3199	119.20	1.2271	1.9626	1.1617	0.7950	157.32
200 day	1.3007	118.13	1.2325	1.9308	1.1446	0.7796	153.66

UK Alex 11:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Challenger: US Apr Job Cuts 70,672, Up 44.2% From Mar

CT Cris 11:39 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I can tell you if it is heading twd 19700 , after 0230 am gmt.

CT Cris 11:36 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 07:34 GMT May 2, 2007
CT cris, where are you ? I am missing you very much.
need urgently your opinion on cable, looks like the trend has changed this time, am expecting to see 1.97 till the end of the week.

====
as i said yesterday , short if breaks level 20010 ,you can continue short after 1400 gmt.

London NYAM 11:32 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Wobbly markets today lovely for scalpers. GBP is correcting a five wave move so we shall see wthere therecent leg down and the next are merely an extended correction of the reversal already.

Melbourne Qindex 11:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle): As shown in the projected series of my weekly cycle the market is trying to overcome the resistance of the upper barrier at 1.2176 // 1.2235. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2334. The projected supporting barrier is expected at 1.2120 // 1.2136.

GVI john 10:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:51 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - tnx - I decided to leave it until it's inside the channel - your notes are taken & appreciated..

St. Annaland Bob 10:48 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:46 GMT May 2, 2007

100K will be more than enough

London NYAM 10:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Kap// You know i dont 'do' EUR (yet) but a gave your chart a look. If this helps great otherwise tossit. I wont get into the EW as I know its not of any use to you but the results aere as follow: It looks on 4hr that we have potential for another leg up but this will only be signalled by a break of 163.29 (but be careful about using that as a s/l area as there may be a an option to exut that move if the follow through i sweak or spikes. Very short term the move from 162.39 to 163.19 looks corrective so there is a strong liklihood of another down leg available for you to make a little dough quiter soon.or to get out if you are not happy.

A break of 161.95 below wil give this correection much more room to move.

gl no worries

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:46 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ADP today - anyone looking for any reaction - I have seen some use it for correlation to the NFP..
on BMBG tv I saw a Citigroup market analyst calling for 120k NFP - he was pretty much convinced..

Global-View Research 10:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:

Mellon FX Daily

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HK Kevin 10:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 10:25 GMT, lady first.

madrid mm 10:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
so let me get this one straight , when EURO/USD goes up, USD/YEN goes up and when Euro/USD goes down, UD/YEnkeeps going up ...LOl
So much for correlation !!!! lol

St. Annaland Bob 10:28 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ab, don't forget to tell before you rock and move the market ... top and happy trades

St. Annaland Bob 10:26 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." - Albert Einstein

for those with extra free time or just with spiritual needs ;)

HK REVDAX 10:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 10:16//Let me have my day and you yours tomorrow.

UK Alex 10:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
‘The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.’ Linus Pauling (1901-1994)

HK Kevin 10:16 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:34 GMT, we are on the opposite side. Currently short EUR, AUD, NZD and EUR/JPY.

London NYAM 10:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Kap// yeap and getting walkied for 50 pips presently. IM counting on a cross-current of tech indications that are pointing to a yen strengthening phase dropping to 118 area and the GBP which is either going to re-test the local lows and dump for a reversal or, if im wrong wonder on sidways up for a little more.
This isnt a short term trade. Im looking for 3-500 points at least althouugh i may enter and exit to maximize the trend reversal. I have some danger points on GBP that will force me to exit but im loath to say them here. On JPY unfortunately the extension may prove more prolonged for reasons stated earlier but the wave structure is corrective so the move is likely to reverse.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
however if what Alex says is true then we can see the consolidation channel range 163.30 - 162.40 to hold on...

London NYAM 10:00 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Alex//Cheers, thats what I thought you meant.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:00 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - do you still hold the GBPJPY short?
I think I made a mistake as I shorted EURJPY at 88/91 and had little line at 98 that signalled a Stop and Reverse.. but holded and it looks like the move is up now..

UK Alex 09:59 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:53 GMT May 2, 2007
It means there is no immediate reason to push the market higher.

Bangkok bkk 09:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I will probably take profit on USD/JPY long around 120.35/40 if see today during NY trading session.

Bangkok bkk 09:54 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
1.3579 not*1.2579
typo

London NYAM 09:53 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Alex// Sorry I wasn't sure if you were making a contra point or not. It seems that what you are saying supports my contention. Please explain if you have a chance.

Bangkok bkk 09:52 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Closed long EUR/USD @ 1.2579

Still holding long USD/JPY

KL KL 09:52 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy asking for it....in ninja opinion but wait for attempt on some ko options near 120.50 and 121.....US data yesterday was NOT USD bearish as many have thought.....now the "quiestly" does it unwind starts...

London NYAM 09:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Alex// doesnt that imply the smarter money is already out? regards.

UK Alex 09:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:31 GMT May 2, 2007
Japanese exporters had dollar-selling bids in the lower 120 yen range.

London NYAM 09:38 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
That being said, i read this as a final wave e that began yesterday at the low of 119.01. wave e's are notoriously unpredictable so im not trading this until it obviously breaks down.

HK REVDAX 09:38 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:34 //Shorting $/CAD?

hk ab 09:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
move dlr/cad limit slightly higher to welcome the overshoot @1.1151. GL

London NYAM 09:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I believe that on the 4hr chart the JPY is on its fiinal leg up to check out what its like back over 120. I wouldnt get too excited about the psychological figure as its just a wonderful added way to prolong the agoiny for the last dollar shorts. tHe question is how many of them are willing to capitulate, and how much yen selling is enough? Even Kempo doesnt need to sell around here and don't kid yourself in thinking that these players are concerned becuase theve already baught em back and pocketed. imvho

cpt vande 09:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:09 GMT May 2, 2007
Ldn Cashman 08:15 GMT

In marriages women outlive their male partners

Seems to be the same in Politics

Thatcher 11 years 209 days
Blair 10 years ??

GLGT

NY HENDRO 09:19 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY is like an ATM

London Misha 09:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Why is the market quiet? Perhaps it is because I can't get my bloody dealers to talk about anything other than their loss to Liverpool last night!!!!

Syd 09:09 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Ldn Cashman 08:15 GMT yes I agree ruin the bloody country , shame they cant serve time

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 09:01 //
hi, you most probably mean on Dailies or at least 4h timeframes.. I'd say I agree with you..

I sold EURJPY and averaged a bit - so overall short 162.91 but this was meant an easy short term trade and it looks it went the other way..
now with USDJPY over 120.. maybe a quick exit is better..

GENEVA DS 09:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
JPY and CHF getting slaughtered once again... EURUSD probably gonna hold the levels here.... so EURJPY going to the moon... break of 16450 gives 17500 to start with... EURCHF has already broken ... next stop 17500... gl gt

Bodrum OEE 08:54 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Prime Minister Erdogan addressing muslim democrat AKP group refuses the view that the present parliament is declared disfunctional.

Erdogan says if any support is given to AKP to change constitution for presidential election to take place through public voting, they are willing to do so.

Polarisation and clarification of sides is the definition of the new stage of politics in Turkey

St. Annaland Bob 08:44 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
PURKOVSKY, I meant this one:

Chelsea Deny Bosses On Missing Chopper

hk ab 08:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
sell in May, go away....fx version?

The Netherlands Purk 08:38 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
BOB:

Two city officials die in helicopter crash in Michigan

SCIO TOWNSHIP, Mich. (AP) -- Two city officials of Chelsea, Michigan, are dead following a helicopter crash.

Police Chief Scott Sumner and fire Captain Matt Tuttle were killed yesterday. Authorities say they were searching for a man who ran from a traffic stop when Tuttle's private helicopter went down west of Ann Arbor.

Tuttle had volunteered the use of his chopper after hearing that police were searching for the man. The motorist had run into a wooded area after being pulled over on an interstate and found to have warrants out for his arrest.

A witness says the helicopter was flying slowly and then suddenly just dropped.

Flags in Chelsea have been lowered to half staff.

HK REVDAX 08:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I am performing the following market exercises(real). You can try these specials especially if you don't need stops. It is better than going to Macau, I am sure.
(1)buy Eur/Yen
(2)short $/JY
(3)short $/chf
(4)short $/cad

The Netherlands Purk 08:30 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Loonert is gonna seek for bottom. Beware of NN.... he is worse than the g. of h...

Tga nz 08:29 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts on GBP. Uptrend broken this time?

Bodrum OEE 08:26 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Turkey is in a new phase of uncertainty.

One of the opposition parties ANAP, rightwing liberals signaled support for governing Muslim democrats AKP to elect president by public vote through a change in constitution. It is unclear how a balanced constitution can be written until July 1, 2007 when a general election is expected to take place.

Main opposition and leftwing CHP defends the view that the parliament is declared disfunctional at present (and can call for general elections only) with the constitutional court annulling the first round of presidential elections.

It is also unclear who serves as the president during the presidential election process. Parliament president Bulent Arinc of AKP, blamed for his uncompromising stance over a less controversial presidential candidate claiming that it will not be the current president Ahmet N. Sezer. According to Arinc Sezer's time in office will be over by the time. Arinc himself is among those who could, since he is the deputy to the president (when necessary such as visits abroad), a development that could make him center of criticism, again.

Constitutional court can be asked to rule again.

Brisbane JAF 08:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/personalapplet.html?cities=240,248,102,236,83,87,136,179,47,952

Set any times you want

Brisbane JAF 08:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/personalapplet.html?cities=240,248,102,236,83,87,136,179,47,952

Set any times you want

St. Annaland Bob 08:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Chelsea officials inside helicopter off the radar screens, anyone knows more?

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
https://www.commerzbank.de/upload/dailyd.pdf

just saw it - they are now writing it in English..

Sofia mik 08:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:06 GMT May 2, 2007
CAD BoC's Dodge Speaks on Floating Exchange Rates in Montreal 13:10
------------
what time , is this GMT,pls?

Ldn Cashman 08:15 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd- good riddance mate.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:06 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
sold soem EURJPY at 162.88 - looking for 162.30
a break ot 162.98 will let me rethink it..

Syd 08:04 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
TONY BLAIR TO STEP DOWN IN UK: 'Within the next few weeks I won't be Prime Minister'...

Melbourne Qindex 07:59 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my weekly cycle the market is retreating from the upper barrier at 163.07 // 163.65. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 162.07 - 162.18. A projected resistant level is positioning at [163.57] - [164.11].

London NYAM 07:56 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
morning. sold gbp/jpy 238.90

Tel Hashomer BSB 07:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 07:34 GMT May 2, 2007

sell cris

Melbourne Qindex 07:55 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my weekly cycle the market is retreating from the upper barrier at 163.07 // 163.65. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 162.07 - 162.18. A projected resistant level is positioning at [163.57] - [164.11].

Gen dk 07:45 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:37 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Turkey lurched deeper into political crisis last night after a court halted the country's presidential election
The constitutional court annulled the first round vote of the ruling party's candidate, Abdullah Gul, amid fears that he wanted to take the country in a pro-Islamic direction. The court ruled that not enough MPs took part in the vote last Friday for it to be valid.LINK

Melbourne Qindex 07:35 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is trying to overcome the resistance at the upper barrier of 1.6495 // 1.6523. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.6420 - 1.6569. A projected resistant barrier is located at 1.6604 - 1.6607 and a projected supporting level is expected at [1.6469] - [1.6479].

Ramat Afal SBS 07:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
CT cris, where are you ? I am missing you very much.
need urgently your opinion on cable, looks like the trend has changed this time, am expecting to see 1.97 till the end of the week.

Syd 07:26 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dollar Drops On Leveraged Selling
Profit-taking by leveraged funds and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar kept the Australian currency under sustained pressure in Asia Wednesday.

A widely-anticipated decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia at 2330 GMT to keep interest rates steady at 6.25% in May, added to the downward drift of the Aussie, dealers said.

Government bond prices ended the day lower in line with trends in the U.S. overnight. But the RBA's rates-on-hold decision damped enthusiasm for selling.

Currency and debt traders now see the risk of a rate hike as a medium-to-long-term possibility, with many economists saying rates will remain on hold at least until 2008.
Greg Gibbs, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO, said it was a day for profit-takers with leveraged funds moving to lock in some of the returns accrued with the currency pushing to 17-year highs in recent months.

Inflation looks to have cooled, but momentum is building behind economic growth at a time when labor market conditions are at their tightest in 31 years and wage demands are on the rise, she said.

Tony Morris, senior currency strategist at the ANZ Bank said data pointing to a slowing in employment growth in April also weakened the Australian dollar.

A government survey showed skilled job vacancies fell 2.2% in April from March.

Melbourne Qindex 07:22 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 1.5066 // 1.5125. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the lower limit of the daily cycle reference at 1.5152. A projected resistant barrier is located at 1.5125 - 1.5132 and a projected supporting barrier is expected at 1.5007 - 1.5017. The odds are high that the market will trade in the extreme level at 1.4811 - 1.4968.

St. Annaland Bob 07:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ab, you are right ... next week will tell if EURUSD has double top in place.

hk ab 07:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
I think this d/j action is concerted action of funds in thin mkt. let them finish their job by end of week and next week, we will have all players back to move the ball....

madrid mm 07:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
i am curious but would it be true to say that currency crosses present the best range-bound trades ?

madrid mm 07:12 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading always comes down to timing.

hk ab 07:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad short limit missed by 5 pips....

St. Annaland Bob 07:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
ab, you would not "äsk" that without a clue ... 16225 will say

hk ab 06:46 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
bob, e/j is even more profitable?

USA Zeus 06:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 04:03 GMT May 2, 2007
Mike- Thank you neighbor. Fantastic cable trade!

Lahore FM 03:56 GMT May 2, 2007
FM friend- Words simply can't express the gratitude.

Looks like sir Purkson, the neighborhood watchman, is doing that trade on the bugger again. GT!

Will be very interesting to hear the definition of "trend" and "trend reversal" as the loonert moves along.

Cheers!

St. Annaland Bob 06:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY shorts between 12030-12050 with s/l bit above 12070 has the chance to pay really great

cairo 06:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
you can download books and researches now
its free
http://forexlibrary.censored/

cairo 06:25 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
you can download books and researches now
its free
http://forexlibrary.censored/

madrid mm 06:05 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

RBA leaves Cash Rate unchanged at 6.25%, as widely expected. Focus now on RBA MPS on Friday, for likely downgrade of CPI forecast.

Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan says his government has agreed to an early national election on either June 24 or July 1 to resolve the current standoff (even though the presidential vote in parliament will go ahead today, after court annulled the first vote from last week).

AAP/ News.com.au: PM John Howard says next week's Budget will ease pressure on interest rates and he says a Coalition Government would always keep rates lower than Labor.

PM Howard welcomed RBA's decision today to leave interest rates unchanged, telling Sky News "It's good news for Australian homebuyers, I'm interested in seeing interest rates remain moderate and the Budget next week will contribute downward pressure on interest rates."

Australian Treasurer Peter Costello says inflation is in the middle of the target range. Inflation forecast will be updated in the budget, budget will will put downward pressure on interest rates. Prices pressures have decelerated since the end of last year.

President George Bush vetoed vetied Iraq bill that contains $100bn of funding and Oct 1 start date for maximum six month timeframe for withdrawal of US toops from Iraq.

WSJ: Rupert Murdoch's surprise $5 billion bid for Dow Jones & Co. News Corp.'s bid of $60 a share in cash, or a combination of cash and stock, is pitched at a price roughly 67% above the recent market value.

UK Times: An investment fund controlled by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the Crown Prince of Dubai, has emerged as one of the biggest shareholders in HSBC, 2 weeks after Maan al-Sanea of Saudi Arabia, appeared with a 3.1% stake.

Greenback seems fighting back to life again after yesterday's stronger ISM number seen helping to trigger a "mini-rally" in USD and putting pressure on EUR, JPY, AUD, NZD,GBP, amidst absence of major news in holiday thinned markets.

AUD/USD little changed after RBA left Cash Rate unchanged at 6.25%, as widely expected after yesterday's Board Meeting, with the pair hovering around 0.8265-75. It then dipped to day lows, weighed by talks of PM John Howard comments that budget will put downward pressure on rates, reinforced later by Treasurer Peter Costello, with AUD hitting day lows of 0.8220. Focus on Friday's RBA MPS, where 4CAST sees a downward revision of CPI, and no rate hikes till 2008.

EUR/USD finally took out the stoploss below 1.3575-80, clearing rumoured Russian/ Chinese bids to 1.3562, with some talks US hedge funds, models are buying back USD, liquidating some positions ahead of May 31 book closing for some. Still talks of China bids 1.3550-60.

USD/JPY 120 triggers finally taken out today, after initially capped at 119.94 at the fixing. Good options related, and Japanese exporters offers at 119.90-120.00 taken out, pushing it to 2-month highs of 120.15, its highest level since Feb 27 highs of 120.75.

EUR/JPY hit day lows of 162.75 from 163.10 on back of EUR stoploss selling, before edging back up. GBP/USD hit day lows of 1.9939 as EUR under pressure, before edging back up again, while NZD under pressure as well on weaker AUD.

Focus on Turkish Lira/ politics and any impact on Emerging markets, as Govt to call early elections.

Nikkei +137pts or 0.8% at 17,412, JGBs under selling pressure today, with 10yr yield +0.015% at 1.620%.Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.73/120.15, EUR/USD 1.3562/1.3609, GBP/USD 1.9939/1.9991, USD/CHF 1.2138/1.2174, AUD/USD 0.8220/0.8282, NZD/USD 0.7363/0.7407.

Syd 05:50 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:34 going to go with the flow, think we may see under 82 and then up until the RBA review and Employment data friday night, that will be the driver in my view, just get the feeling aussie running out of steam here. dont want to be caught holding longs though

The Netherlands Purk 05:45 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Well loonie sure needed that back up on swissy there, and last night first moon in many moons that it did the flying thing. That is not a good sign for the shorters... i have the bottomkisser today near the 11081...
I am keeping an eye out for the bugger and will start to short it when it looks exhausted to me, but for now it is more the ticking to the high thing, this will change when 16218 is passed...

Sydney ACC 05:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:20 GMT May 2, 2007
I'm not in the market at this week, been breaking up brick retaining walls in the back garden, what are your thoughts on Aussie?

madrid mm 05:32 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
GM FX jedi,
fwiw in GMT
13:30 USD Fed's Poole Speaks
15:00 USD Treaury Paulson Speaks

Melbourne Qindex 05:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : The market is wrking on the upper barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.6495 // 1.6523. The current expected trading ranges are ... [1.6383] - 1.6420* - 1.6439 - 1.6458 - 1.6495* // 1.6523 - 1.6551 - 1.6569* - 1.6607 ...

Syd 05:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:12 yes saw that too

Melbourne Qindex 05:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is trying to overcome the resistance at the upper barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.2176 // 1.2235. The current expected trading ranges are : ... [1.1937] - 1.2017* - 1.2056 - 1.2096 - 1.2176* // 1.2235 - 1.2295 - 1.2334* - 1.2414 ...

Sydney ACC 05:12 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:13 GMT May 2, 2007
News of the bid was announced Tuesday yet on Monday according to NY Times there were 4,335 options over the stock traded versus a daily average of 309.
More than 50% of the stock is held by the Bancroft family some of whom may prefer Bloomberg to Murdoch.

moscow mike 04:57 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 04:54 GMT May 2, 2007
I've made great input here and lessons to some people around.

Wish you great success with your work!

Perth Randall El 04:54 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Thank you to all for the support of a lucky beginner. I go back to work now and leave you with my thoughts about suds. Have one on me!-
==============================================

Perth Randall El 05:07 GMT April 26, 2007
Randall Time is like how you say Miller Time in Texas

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA goog opp 04:19 GMT May 2, 2007
hi, i inform u that my client was crying with his 10,000 usd that be invested to that site.his 10,000 usd is gone.....

Syd 04:43 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello Wednesday said the government would "live within its means" in next week's budget, which would not exert pressure on the inflation rate. Costello is putting the finishing touches on his 12th budget, due to be handed down next Tuesday. The budget will provide an opportunity for the center-right government to offer voters some sweeteners ahead of the general election due by the end of the year. But Costello said the budget would be responsible and would deliver a surplus. "It's important that we keep inflation contained, price rises low," he told a media briefing. "That's important for households, it's important for the economy and it's important for interest rates." Costello said last week's consumer price index showed inflation had been decelerating since December but that did not mean the so-called "inflation genie" was defeated.

Melbourne Qindex 04:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is testing the supporting strength of the weekly cycle at 1.3546 // 1.3590. The current expected trading ranges are : ... 1.3546 // 1.3590* - 1.3649 - 1.3678 - 1.3707* - [1.3765] ...

USA BAY 04:33 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA goog opp,
Whats on that website is totally ridiculous, sounds more like a scam.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:27 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
120.00
sell usd/jpy now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tgt 119.31

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:23 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
....till 2.0011 or 2.--37 as the top ". mean 2.0037

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:22 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hello traders.
gbp/usd have finished its high 2.0070 and in fact that level is nice top., so I inform u that 1.9939 have done and seem ready for up again till 2.0011 or 2.--37 as the top.

about aud/usd too still will down till 0.8190 as the bottm tgt, from there will up again till 0.8266 as the first top tgt.

ready in nice battle with "my passengers" ?.LOL

Syd 04:18 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello: Inflation Rate Decelerating
Budget To Keep Pressure Off Rates
Prices Pressures Weaker Since End-06

Lahore FM 04:17 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 04:11 GMT May 2, 2007
Thanx for the mail.replied.best of trades!

AZUSA 4x-ed 04:16 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
It seems that a too many good calls are being made by a some 'hobby traders'. Nice job Mr. Randy!

Syd 04:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:01 yes have been watching that , any view on Murdoch bids to swallow Dow Jones Rupert Murdoch has made a bold bid for one of the gems of world's media: Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

any reaction from that purchas, hearing Bloomberg sticking their nose in also

moscow mike 04:11 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:25 GMT May 1, 2007
moscow mike 14:34 GMT May 1, 2007
moscow mike 10:54 GMT May 1, 2007
short cable 0045, stp 0095 for a swing trade
=============
covered half +40.
==================
covered some more +57
========================
covered last +100

------------------------------------------------
Lahore FM, dear friend, you got mail in your g-mail mailbox ;)

I think Randy has proved to all that he knows that he talks about... LOL

GT ALL

lkwd jj 04:10 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
see you guys in ny am. good night and good luck!!!

Lahore FM 04:08 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 04:06 GMT May 2, 2007
load dips for higher still.

Lahore FM 04:06 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
CAD BoC's Dodge Speaks on Floating Exchange Rates in Montreal 13:10
this happens friday!may coincide with 1280 print.

lkwd jj 04:06 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm
randall el
============
good trades to you both!!!!!!

r1 is at 11 i had 15 missed it as my brkoer shows 14 high. holding some for 35. any shot at it ? r2 is 41

moscow mike 04:03 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:58 GMT May 2, 2007

I like that.

Cheers from the neighborhood!

Lahore FM 04:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:55 GMT May 1, 2007
lkwd jj 15:53 GMT May 1, 2007
2240.usdjpy to peek into 120's.
-----------------------
just closed some at 120.09.

good call Randall!

Sydney ACC 04:01 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:37 GMT May 2, 2007
i think the M&A business may now be workign against Aussie. There is debate that the Cemex deal on Rinker may not proceed and The Qantas private equity buyout reaches a climax Friday. Any hedge fund usuing Qantas as an equity and AUD play must be getting nervous now.

Lahore FM 03:56 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
It's beautiful Zeus my friend,and you are never alone.

".......and a river runs through it."

Syd 03:37 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD has broken low set following below-expectation Australia CPI release of 0.8234 (April 24), last at 0.8228. Profit taking on longs, also some unwinding of AUD/JPY positions contributing to fall say traders; extra push being given by broad USD rebound. Pair may now target 0.8151 (April 9 low), Dow Jones technical analysis shows.

Perth Randall El 03:37 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:43 GMT April 27, 2007
usd.jpy
=========
120 is coming.

==============================================
Exactly like I said. Type 1 signal all the way....
Take profits at your pleasure!

Sofia mik 03:31 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
syd , you are right but i m doll bull vs chf and yen

Syd 03:24 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 03:13 GMT
NZ have been gradually raising rates , BOE have dragged their feet while letting people think all is well, now needing greater increase, once rates peak in NZ kiwi will hit the fan as I have heard by ten big figures, but cant compare them at all.

tokyo ginko 03:22 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
good follow thru across the board

Sofia mik 03:21 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
syd, if I have Venezuala bolivar on my platform :hard short for longer time ,hehe
glgt

Sofia mik 03:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd , ok . but situation new membrm in EZ is not pink

PAR: new Trishecruz

http://www.hyundaiusa.com/vehicle/veracruz/trim/limited.aspx

Syd 03:04 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 03:00 GMT my bet is the UK especially if they go 50bpts

Sofia mik 03:00 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
BUD Petr 00:06 GMT May 2, 2007
Syd 00:02 GMT May 2, 2007

we might need to start accepting bets which country/city is next in row...

Venezuela

USA Zeus 02:58 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading is a lot like fishing

"But when I am alone in the half light of the canyon all existence seems to fade to a being with my soul and memories. And the sounds of the Big Black Foot River and a four count rhythm and the hope that a fish will rise. Eventually, all things merge into one, and a river runs through it. The river was cut by the world's great flood and runs over rocks from the basement of time. On some of the rocks are timeless raindrops. Under the rocks are the words, and some of the words are theirs. I am haunted by waters."

USA Zeus 02:41 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:36 GMT May 2, 2007

Nice poetry CB! Fresh relief here. Well that call was put out some 80 pips ago on GBP/USD as more of an intra-day call. Cycle signal came a bit before that but was cranking on stocks and oil at the time.
cheers.

Syd 02:40 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Everything in this world, including money, operates not on reality - but the perception of reality.

Halifax CB 02:36 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:09 GMT May 2, 2007
USA Zeus 14:18 GMT May 1, 2007
Intraday Cycle indicator says USD about to shine soon

Like the moon in June....though I prefer shine on harvest moon - that's not till the end of the summer...

Though undoubtedly it will, I hope it's not for awhile. But alas, all good things must come to an end....

USA Zeus 02:32 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 02:09 GMT May 2, 2007

JD- Sounds a lot like going to a casino and plunking it all down on "red" at the roulette, using an empty wallet as a stop loss.

GT! :-)

Syd 02:27 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Carry Pairs AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY Biased Down

AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY both biased lower after breaking intraday support; momentum coming from profit taking in AUD/USD, NZD/USD underpinned by broad USD rebound while USD/JPY little changed amid thinned trade due to Golden Week holidays. AUD/JPY broke support at 98.96, last at 98.84, may test 98.45 in next sessions. NZD/JPY broke support at 88.49, last at 88.43, may test 88.04 in next sessions, Dow Jones technical analysis shows

CANBERRA JD 02:09 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Will aussie get past 8200 after adp? Heres hoping.

Anyone thought of trading with margin call as the s/l? I have been demoing it with awesome results (i suppose how accurate you are).. But it minimizes loss and maximizes profits.... Your thoughts?

USA Zeus 02:09 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:18 GMT May 1, 2007
Intraday Cycle indicator says USD about to shine soon

//////
Guess so.

Halifax CB 01:47 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Well, finally in on $CAD after my forst entry got missed ny 2 pips. Short at 1.1125, orders at +30 & +60, SL currently set at 1.125. It would be nice to go back to when it was moving in 300 pip bands, even if it took a hurricane to do it...

Syd 01:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Australian Skilled Vacancies Index -2.2% In Apr Vs Mar


CANBERRA An index of job vacancies for skilled workers in Australia fell 2.2% to 99.3 in April from March, and was 6.5% lower than a year before, the Department of Employment & Workplace Relations said Wednesday.

Alaska Moon 01:07 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 23:58 GMT May 1, 2007
========
Hi there, Martin...Good to hear from " Big Hedge Martin"
LOL.
We would sre appreciate hearing from you MORE often !!!
Moon AKA "Frosty"

texasbp 01:06 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
hey randall ...
great call last time ..

tokyo ginko 00:56 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
aud stops hunt

Perth Randall El 00:51 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 08:26 GMT May 1, 2007
gbp.usd
=========
Sell now 2.0020
Sell again if rise every 30 pips to 2.0110

=============================================

Feel free to lock in gains at your leisure.

UK Alex 00:37 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
BUD Petr 23:34 GMT May 1, 2007
All is not what it seems to be. A lot of companies are choosing to buy back stock rather than invest their cash in expanding capacity. I wonder what that could mean.

RIC fxq 00:34 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:20 GMT + Syd ACC

it would appear the chickens will come home to roost so to speak regardless of where one is - US, UK, EU or AUS.

Sad situation all around.

Syd 00:20 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:13 me too heard the same , if the RBA dont be careful they can give the next Government the recession they needed to have , to quote Paul Keeting

Sydney ACC 00:13 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:02 GMT May 2, 2007
I heard on ABC radio that there were 9,000 repossessions in western Sydney over the last twelve months - higfhest since the recession of 1991.

UK Alex 00:10 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
It's a bit of a worrying development when even Toyota's sales are down on the month.

BUD Petr 00:06 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:02 GMT May 2, 2007

we might need to start accepting bets which country/city is next in row...

Syd 00:02 GMT May 2, 2007 Reply   
More families losing their homes
STRUGGLING homeowners in Sydney's west are having their properties repossessed in record numbers as rich Harbourside postcodes enjoy surging real estate prices.
censored