Forex Forum Archive for 05/03/2007

jkt-aye 23:59 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus ... any thought how to be in "one-tenth of the one pct" group ? tia

USA Zeus 23:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
While it is slow thought to share a thought from someone I know- the king of exhaustion patterns, Mr contra himself, SAC's right hand man, Tom Demark:

"Ninety-nine percent of the people in the business are followers. They’re not creative and they’re not willing to rely upon themselves to make decisions, so they rely upon other people. When the decision is right they take credit for it, and when it’s wrong they point fingers at other people. And out of that one percent who do make their own decisions and create their own tools, 99 percent of them are going to be wrong, so you’ve got about one-tenth of one percent that are going to be right. The market is [full of lemmings]: everyone feeding off one another, following the media, and following a trend."

Gen dk 23:45 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

tokyo ginko 22:15 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
morning all, bought some yen here for medium term play. GT all

USA BAY 22:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
No problem JJ

LKWD JJ 21:59 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
thank you ! USA BAY 21:35 GMT May 3, 2007
i thought that s what i saw.

LKWD JJ 21:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
thank you sir. cable looking sick here.

Lahore FM 21:46 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:25 GMT May 3, 2007
yep JJ 2240 quite possible but still it would have to be nfp reaction dependent.

GVI john 21:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3554	120.43	1.2164	1.9878	1.1071	0.8240	163.23
High	1.3621	120.47	1.2172	1.9946	1.1092	0.8261	163.60
Low	1.3547	119.97	1.2094	1.9855	1.1055	0.8223	163.13
05/03/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/03/2007					
5 day 	1.3612	119.89	1.2116	1.9946	1.1101	0.8279	163.17
10 day	1.3610	119.37	1.2090	1.9971	1.1153	0.8297	162.45
20 day 	1.3549	119.28	1.2120	1.9906	1.1267	0.8290	161.55
50 day 	1.3375	118.36	1.2160	1.9683	1.1505	0.8091	158.30
100 day	1.3209	119.25	1.2270	1.9634	1.1608	0.7959	157.49
200 day	1.3015	118.19	1.2324	1.9320	1.1443	0.7801	153.83

Syd 21:40 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Dirty money exploits housing boom
Take the UK property market. With house prices rising by double-digit percentages each year, it would hardly be surprising if conmen and fraudsters were licking their lips at the prospect of such a juicy target.
In Spain, meanwhile, a string of big-money corruption and money laundering cases involving property have hit the headlines as the market for new holiday homes there has boomed - and could now be about to bust.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6600931.stm

USA BAY 21:35 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

The daily for usd/chf seems to point upside and it is not o/b, the hourlies are bullish also, so my target is 1.2280/90 imvvvho.

LKWD JJ 21:25 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM so you think 1.224 is still on radar screen...

LKWD JJ 21:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:12 GMT May 3, 2007
LKWD JJ 20:58 GMT May 3, 2007
===========================
i meant usdchf. sorry.

Rye,NY et 21:22 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 22:00 GMT May 2, 2007
Eur/Usd...fwiw...A persuasive break below 1.3565 will signal a deeper pullback...
______________________________________________
Yesterday, the market closed below Trendline Support...The Short-term bias shifts, temporarily, to the downside...GL/GT

jkt-aye 21:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus ... thx for the lessons. cheers

RIC fxq 21:17 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:47 GMT

I would only agree as a high risk trade based on a severely O/S prop. short term index I have developed (-13 on a -8 threshold being oversold). Failure to retake 13635+ would put me back on the short side however.

Lahore FM 21:12 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:58 GMT May 3, 2007
chf offered evrywhere JJ .only a very bad nfp can change that.it can go up on usdchf pair on even consensus nfp.even a bad number will see chf offered on eurchf and gbpchf.

Syd 21:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Setiment Toward NZD/USD Turns Less Bullish - BNZ
Market sentiment towards NZD/USD has become less bullish over recent days, with narrowing of NZ-U.S. swap spreads partially contributing to this change, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton; notes apart from recovery in USD, NZ-U.S. 3-year swap spreads have narrowed to 281 bps vs 293 past week; "the onslaught of press articles reporting on how the combination of the high NZD and high interest rates are hurting NZ businesses may also be helping take the shine off NZD sentiment." Tips 0.7340-0.7380 range today as FX markets await U.S. payrolls data due tonight

Tallinn viies 21:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
EURO-DOLLAR: Euro slips briefly below $1.3550 and then rebounds only
modestly, with players still targeting a test of key support at
$1.3540-45. A break below that level is expected to set off stops, with
additional support seen at $1.3520-25, the April 17 low.

Provided by: Market News International

LKWD JJ 20:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM ive gone flat $Y here @39 and @46. view on swissy plz?

Lahore FM 20:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
eurusd may well be a buy here at 3553 if it is a buy at all.

Makassar Alimin 19:38 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
numbers can be anything, what's important is how participants perceive and react to it

Prague viktor 19:29 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hearing that the NFP will be about (120-150k)!!! G/LG/T

USA BAY 19:17 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
More M&A, fuels cad gains

Halifax CB 19:13 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - I agree, and certainly you have done well on your side of the trade; & I'm pretty well aware of what happens at the end of every trend to trend traders like myself :). I just find it interesting (and educational) comparing alternate approaches, especially one very different than my own Cheers!

USA Zeus 19:07 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:53 GMT May 3, 2007

CB- Yw. Nothing what I said means that I believe it is mandatory for USD/CAD to move higher as no one (except that one Jordanian) knows for sure about what comes next.
No amount of intuition or math will determine it.
Certainly someone can call "heads" in the air and when the coin lands heads-up that same someone can say they knew it all along but we all know better. No sense in anyone trying to prove that they will be right etc. on an indivudual trade.

We trade based on odds and probabilities knowing that if we have an edge each hand played matters very little as we "beat the dealer"

USA Zeus 18:57 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 18:30 GMT May 3, 2007
Thx neighbor!

Halifax CB 18:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Ok, Thanks!

USA Zeus 18:50 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:39 GMT May 3, 2007
CB- Good question. This particular "trade" is a "position" unlike what seems like 100's of swing trades and scalps I have posted here in the past. My mistake was to deviate from what trades I normally post here even though I have repeatedly explained that this would be/is different than all those other posts. The position here was to very slowly add blocks in the construction phase of the building then when it hit "hot zones" to allocate the remaining position allocation size more aggressively. Then as reactions happen to take the heat off and be flexible for new possible hot zones at lower levels and repaet the process until it was no longer necessary.
Then when the trend has been correctly identified by the masses some 1,2,3,4 figure later in the reversal the position is already deep in the profit zone.

The strategy for this "position" trading is not unlike what someone who wanted to take a position for a few yards would do. They simply do not have the luxury of using an indicator that hits a thresh level then push the buy button for a no-slip STP instant execution. So they buy weakness and sell strength building positions over time.

Halifax CB 18:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - out of curiosity, why don't you just put in buy stops a bit above the trend in $CAD. If it's going to reverse sharply, they should get picked up, and in the meantime there's little risk and no carrying cost.

Bangladesh Wenel 18:34 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys,
Still on my eur/usd shorts from 1,3645 S/L 1,3700 T/P 1,3400-50
Will add more if daily candle closes <1,3550 and change my S/L to 1,3645. GL and GT

moscow mike 18:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:24 GMT May 3, 2007
Simply excellent post!

Halifax CB 18:25 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Looks like eurusd is trying to sneak past 1.3550 - I have the most significant recent support on the hourlies at about 1.3540 from late April, can't see much below that if it doesn't hold (maybe a little at 1.3525). Another failure though at 1.3550 would be a nice signal to start thinking about longs...

USA Zeus 18:24 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 17:02 GMT May 3, 2007

My thoughts are that everyone is usually right at the exact wrong time. The masses were not in at the beginning of the trend but after they draw channel lines and identify it- it is generally too late to benefit much from and it rarely happens in curve-fit linear fashion. But when it does, it looks like eye-candy and (incorrectly) becomes the obvious guide for the future.

I have to reflect back to the archives of last year when gold was at 720 where I went short then covered in the 560-577 range. I also recall selling oil at the peak as a "bank" trader told me it was laughable as it was the most obvious trend of the year to continue higher higher higher.

Normally, when the FOMC speaks (and other CBers) it is "yik-yak puke"- but now that Dodge(less) has spoken it is as if he is the 4X Made E-Z god offering free no risk CAD like that man who smiles as he serves ice cream (drugs) to kids from the side of his mobile van...The trend is your friend unless it is about to end.

Remember the #1 truth about the markets and you can't fail.

Cheers

hk ab 18:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
5 dma first , if broken, 20 dma.

USA BAY 18:13 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK AB,

Whats the tp target. tia

Atlanta South 18:10 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifx CB
Ref 17:40 Tks & will do.

hk ab 18:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
long dlr/cad multifailure @1.1050

Lahore FM 18:00 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 17:51 GMT May 3, 2007
GD,it looks 676/690 heading into nfp.silver to catch up.

Halifax CB 17:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:50 GMT May 3, 2007
Good point, big numbers tend to get people to bail out of speculative positions. But we're still waiting up above :)

Vienna GD 17:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:35 GMT May 2, 2007
both are buys GD for 682/85 and 13.70 from present levels.

FM ... congrats - target for gold fullfilled - and now???
What's next to come .... gggggg

Halifax CB 17:40 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 16:51 GMT May 3, 2007
Thx. And check yours :)

Atlanta South 17:37 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
If 1090-95 clears then more up could be seen, but for now
I would stay short $/CAD. Not trading advise, but just my views. Gt

moscow mike 17:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
If USDCHF will overcome 2190 this time i would not be surprised to see it at next pit stop near 2310

Fairfield JC 17:02 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:50 GMT May 3, 2007

I am about 90% sure that this is it for the $CAD. looking at the monthly charts there is some huge positive divergance on MACD. Correct me if I am wrong but I feel like riding this thing for a while like back up to 1.17, like what Peter Bain did last Aug.

What is your input????

Also, If for some reason the NFP is bad which I am almost positive that it will come out very strong, there might be a run up to new highs on the majors and new lows on the $CAD but then a sharp sharp turn around will come asap. Anyway, i am done speaking. GL GT

Atlanta South 16:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
When time allows ck your email. Tks & gt.

USA Zeus 16:50 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Would not surprise me to see a bit of a rise on USD/CAD as the fresh post Dodge(less) reaction shorts worry about any positive NFP USD reaction.

moscow mike 16:42 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX

Dear sir, why i do always have a feeling that you are a school teacher? Could you throw some light on my feeling, pls...

jkt-aye 16:19 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
oops ... 15:55 ...am i a future reading ? lol

jkt-aye 16:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
revdax 18:55 ... how about 120.75 ? gtgl

Halifax CB 16:13 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Delray Beach RMN
I figure that the big issue is China & its development. Japan has to lower its export prices to stay competitive with the increasing sophisication of Chinese exports; at the same time the USD is falling at maybe 5-7% per year against the yuan. China also needs to increase exports to Europe, and needs raw materials from producer countries like Aus. & Cad. So from that perspective the carries are a side issue that gov'ts will slow or speed up (by words in the right ears) as they see fit...

HK Kevin 16:11 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Haifa VS, time will tell. May be from the market force of "black box".

Mtl JP 16:10 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hehe, global-view now the history channel ...

with faulty "facts" about 30 year old lows to boot. see link in my 04:38 GMT December 2, 2006.

HK Kevin 16:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Also hold small long USD/CAD at 1.1068 earlier. For USD/JPY, the upside momentum today is not strong enough following the breakout of 119.75 yesterday. May be watch for 1 more day.

Haifa VS 16:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Brave or stupid?

Perth Randall El 16:07 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
========
1.13 is coming

London NYAM 16:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
JA// aforementioned c-wave unfolding now.

Lahore FM 16:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
a rise for eurusd to 1.3585 can make it rise to lower 1.36.

HK Kevin 16:05 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Closed my short EUR earlier at 1.3566. Now only hold half position of short Kiwi and EUR/JPY. Cable seems has made a daily low at 1.8850. Brave traders can go long near 1.9870 for 1.9950 tomorrow.

Delray Beach RMN 16:05 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
well in regards to green light carry trades, one way trades in my experience in FX trading is usually a doom for any situation last time sterling was here, yen at 135 even last time Euro saw these levels i will contiue to be position for the unwind as we saw in early march from 122- 115 in yen its gonna be a fun ride when it does happen, I mean in toerms of the big boys is Japan really doing that bad in comprison to the US, or are they just holding all our $$$$ in reserves because of the caution of there last melt down... GLGT

Halifax CB 16:04 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Revdax - I went long after I f*ed my signals on a short and missed the exit and had to take a SL. My relationship with USDJPY is - to say the least- strained over the past few years, and may need the intervention of Dr. Phil...

Halifax CB 16:00 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
revdax - - can't help you, I'm long, and I don't have an indicator that would give me reliable info on a down move.

London NYAM 15:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Delray Beach. Cross your fingers for a low number tomorrow then. It will need to be really low to unwind the trade. I would have thought there are better crosses for trading a CT unwind. CAD is a local obsession on this forum. Its amazing how fun a 150 pip range can be ;)
I lived in Delray. Nice place.

Sofia mik 15:56 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
moskow uscad made nearly 30 ys bottom last year, gbp cad same .

hk revdax 15:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:53//Where would you place a stop on short $/JY?

Halifax CB 15:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
RMN - re. the carries, I think just about every finmin has given them the green light as long as it's kept tame, and last time I heard they were significantly down from their peak. But I don't follow it closely. Thoughts?

Halifax CB 15:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
RMN - re. eurjpy, I figured it has just gone to sleep while eur/usd decides whether to bounce off 1.3548 again, or drop through it. I have USDJPY as a moderate ST uptrend.

Delray Beach RMN 15:50 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax I dont know if it will come to pass But I am awaiting the unwinding of a carry position in usd/jpy to drag Eu/jpy back to a more tradeable level any thoughts???

moscow mike 15:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:35 GMT May 3, 2007
Yes, CAD looks (re)tired. But you never know where can fall a heavy dead old cat before it bounces.

Good trades my friend!

Halifax CB 15:46 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
RMN - if you want a little excitement, take a look at gold over the last couple of hours....

Delray Beach RMN 15:43 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
any views on usd/jpy and eu/jpy it seems like the only discussion on this forum is usd/cad which has been in a 150 pip range for over a week and a half boring!!!!!

Halifax CB 15:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
More interesting for me is that $CAD is hugging the trendline tighter than Brad and Angelina, and the trendline is steady as a rock. Yesterday it predicted 1.1064 for the trend value this time today, which is just where it's at. Alas, steady trends get boring, and boredom invites disaster (which is why Bradjolina are always in the supermarket news...)

Lahore FM 15:35 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:28 GMT May 3, 2007
as posted earlier,Dodge did the best a central banker can do.he hid the red flag.his acceding to market forces actually likely to slow and reverse cad's rise imo.

London NYAM 15:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA JA // I see. well trade the plan. :) There is just a risk to get to 1.9900-1.9915 resistance as well ESPECIALLY IF usdjpy slips back from todays high. GT

HK Kevin 15:28 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
wow. USD/CAD hold the bottom again

USA JA 15:26 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
London: I'm thinking for today ahead of the tomorrows jobs number that the 1.9885-89 level should be a good level to sell on to range trade back down to the 1.9852 lows.

tokyo ginko 15:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
am seeing more usd strength across the board, especially, gbp,aud, eur. GT all

madrid mm 15:15 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Even though the current consensus estimate for payrolls is 100k, according to the Bloomberg survey, the range of estimates is between 40k and 160k. This divergence suggests that payrolls can be anyone's game, so as usual anticipate a volatile trading session tomorrow.

London NYAM 15:14 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
The 'kiss' to 1.9885 was only wave a of a probable corrective sequence. Wave c or some other extension has the potential to retrace more than your number unless the weight of this breakdown skews the correction.

hk revdax 15:12 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex //Do you have bath in Oz? I heard that it is suffering from droughts.

USA JA 15:09 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Looking to enter GBP/USD Short on a touch of 1.9889...any thoughts

hk ab 15:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
it's not a conincidence this morning asian selling off of usd....prepare for the worst.

hk ab 14:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
cad will be the star since Dodge didn't prohibit its falling..... 1.08xx then he will reconsider, BUT mkt tends to over shoot....

GENEVA JFO 14:48 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
14:01 HK AB

AGREE EURO/USD is a good buy at 1.3560 for final move by the end of the week.

London NYAM 14:45 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
FWIW PAR hit the target on jan 10th for that call.

madrid mm 14:40 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
just for fun and FWIW

PAR 07:22 GMT August 25, 2006
Sanfran / Me too. Long dollar yen from 117.00 Stop 116.50. Target 120.00.

good old PAR

HK Kevin 14:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY tredline resistance at 120.50

Melbourne Qindex 14:37 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD is very weak!


Melbourne Qindex 08:23 GMT May 3, 2007
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 1.5066 // 1.5125. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the lower limit of the daily cycle reference at 1.5071. The odds are high that the market will trade in the extreme level at 1.4811 - 1.4968. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.4970 // 1.4998 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.5120 // 1.5125.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.4973 - 1.4998* - 1.5010 - 1.5028 // 1.5047* - 1.5071 - 1.5083 - 1.5096* - [1.5120] - 1.5144* - 1.5157 - 1.5169 - 1.5193* // 1.5212 - 1.5230 - 1.5242* - 1.5267 .

St. Annaland Bob 14:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 14:30 GMT May 3, 2007

many thanks ... sounds like correction within bull trend ;)

Melbourne Qindex 14:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 2.4174. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 2.3955 - 2.4394. My daily cycle analysis indicate that a projected resistant level is expected at 2.4217 // 2.4236 and a projected supporting level is located at 2.4063 // 2.4077.


Daily Cycle : ... 2.3971 - 2.4006 - 2.4024 - 2.4050 // 2.4077* - 2.4112 - 2.4129 - 2.4147* - [2.4182] - 2.4217* - 2.4234 - 2.4252 - 2.4287* // 2.4313 - 2.4340 - 2.4357* - 2.4392 ...

London NYAM 14:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
dollar yen shorts sorry. Maybe the wrong kind of grass.

London NYAM 14:31 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
So far a good sign for Yen shorts as it has been the most resiliant in the face of the figures. Still i think grass may be growing on my desk.

EU theEUROqueen 14:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:11 GMT May 3, 2007
...) its all of the rates hunger But once Bob and hopefully soon will fall..

do u like the range 1,3-1,37 for the next 16 weeks

happy trade

hk ab 14:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
cad doens't move much.

tokyo ginko 14:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:53 GMT May 3, 2007
==

though i am based in tokyo, i am sure there are more qualified people in this forum who can answer your question.

i use candlestick as one of my trading tool.

regarding eur/jpy, i was not able to observe any "hanging man", but i do see fundamentally eur/jpy is a good level to short for medium term position.

St. Annaland Bob 14:14 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
ok ... now the disco lights are over and we go back to pip per candle ... or not ;)

Bodrum OEE 14:11 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:08 GMT May 3, 2007

Thank you.

St. Annaland Bob 14:11 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueenl 14:08 GMT May 3, 2007

maybe because that technicals do not count for trading KARDASH for short term ... lol

HK Kevin 14:09 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Closed short Aussie from 8310 at 8232.

EU theEUROqueenl 14:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
a very nice day Bob !the ( KARDASH ) for me is short i dont like it But ur the TYR king

Happy trade

London NYAM 14:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum, hi// Yes I would say the next leg i mentioned yesterday should be in play now to below 19870 towards 19840-50 the thing is will it break the key level at 19817?

Kaunas DP 14:07 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
data was on the table for MM before official time so small fishes were eaten as allways - forex reality

Bodrum OEE 14:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
London 14:01 GMT May 3, 2007

Hello NYAM. That is to the downside, correct? Thank you and I hope you are well. Regards

London NYAM 14:05 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Kap//Not at all. I don't think it means nothing either. It just doesnt mean what one would hope for given the situation. At leasty not yet. Problematically, as you pointed out yesterday, this is a story of GBP weakness not Eur as the cross shows. The hanging man only hangs when the floor gets pulled out from under his feet.

hk ab 14:04 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
took some expensive one at 120.33

tokyo ginko 14:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
this is a great day for stops hunt. GT all

hk ab 14:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
SEEK, hope to get cheap yen at 120.50....

London NYAM 14:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GbP technically breaking

hk ab 14:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
buy eur 1.3560

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
ISM 56 vs. 52.4

Mtl JP 14:00 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
data event risk top of hour
ISM mrkt 53.0 last 52.4

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:59 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - sorry - I studied the Daily chart and it really needs confirmation.. for example Feb 26 "hanging man" close coincided with next open - then plunge.. yesterdays candle doesn't mean anything..sorry for the waste..

St. Annaland Bob 13:56 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
the EUR will fall, but maybe not today

London NYAM 13:54 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Indeed the open after the hanging pattern is also key. It should ideally open below the level of the body/head of th ehanging man. Leaving it hanging and longs holding painful positions.

Fairfield JC 13:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 13:47 GMT May 3, 2007

What info will be bad? TIA

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
yes - sorry I missed this part - because candlesticks charting is a Japanese by origin and you post from tokyo.. that's why I decided to ask you about this chart pattern..

tokyo ginko 13:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:45 GMT May 3, 2007
"hi again - excuse my question - because of your location ...."

sorry i do not understand, you are asking me because of my location ?

hk ab 13:50 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
fake spike then collapse.....

London NYAM 13:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
A hanging man would depend on todays close to confirm.

Fairfield JC 13:48 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
What is the info that will be really weak? What news event? TIA

tokyo ginko 13:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
data leaked? seems a very very strong data...

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:45 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 13:33 //
hi again - excuse my question - because of your location I will ask: do you see the on Daily chart EURJPY that yesterday's candlestick is in the form of "hanging man" -- bearish reversal, signalling srtong resistance, as I read..??
just if you follow candlestick charting.. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 13:43 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6495. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.6420 - 1.6569. A projected resistant barrier is located at 1.6604 - 1.6607 and a projected supporting level is expected at [1.6469] - [1.6479]. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.6456 //1.6462 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.6557 // 1.6562.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.6444 - 1.6456* - 1.6463 - 1.6472 // 1.6482* - 1.6494 - 1.6500 - 1.6507* - [1.6519] - 1.6532* - 1.6538 - 1.6545 - 1.6557* // 1.6567 - 1.6576 - 1.6582* - 1.6595 ...

St. Annaland Bob 13:42 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 13:39 GMT May 3, 2007

happy day! ... just quoted the data, I think ISM will make you to short the EUR or to add to longs ;) ... KARDASH is long or short here @ 18400?

EU theEUROqueen 13:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT May 3, 2007
Happy day Bob!

sounds u are shortting the euro

Happy trade

hk revdax 13:34 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin//Yes, today is your day but I still have that dog $/JY hanging up there from yesterday and is unwilling to come down.

tokyo ginko 13:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:26 GMT May 3, 2007
seek, from the way my dealer quote, the data should be v. bad......

===

can u share with us by giving me an example pls ?

hk ab 13:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
got it revdax.

HK Kevin 13:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax, you forget today has been designated as my day.

hk revdax 13:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:01 //Today's specials are only (1)sell $/JY and (2)buy $/CAD.

tokyo ginko 13:28 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
stops hunt for aud/usd

tokyo ginko 13:26 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
add usd/cad long positions for medium term. GT all

hk ab 13:26 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
seek, from the way my dealer quote, the data should be v. bad......

hk ab 13:25 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
where's zeus? waiting for his rocket to launch.

hk ab 13:24 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
close e/j short for 14 pips.

hong kong seek 13:19 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
we expect a bad data today

hong kong seek 13:14 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:07 GMT May 3, 2007

all base on chart's reading..

Halifax CB 13:13 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:53 GMT May 3, 2007
I went back and skimmed it, rather amusing that he's making a big secret of it. There's only a few ways to do what he's talking about, and they're all pretty much public domain and do-able buy anyone with maybe 2 years of college science-level math (and once implemented, usuable by anyone with a bit of experience & training). But I guess it keeps him employed and his bosses in awe :)

hk ab 13:07 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
seek, why don't wait for ISM?
unless e.j wants to make a rigorous move, otherwise, shorting dlr/jpy is still the art of war.....
in short e/j 163.49 earlier.

Halifax CB 13:05 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:53 GMT May 3, 2007
Sorry I missed it! I'll go look it up. Thanks.
Revdax - there's no limit on high lor low it can go; the model is just based on making a best estimate of where it will be given the trend's recent past, and assuming that over the short run changes are normally distributed. If Bill Gates gave al his money to Zeus, who leveraged it at 400:1 and bought $CAD, well, the model would fall apart...It's really useful to look at things like the failure of Long Term Capital Management a few years ago (and that was run by ecoomists with Nobel Prizes, not sub chasers in the Nova Scotia), to see how trusting models too much is dangerous...But that being said, I would put the expected high over the next day at maybe 1.1095.

hong kong seek 13:04 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
in short usdjpy ..12023

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
after EURJPY cleared the 163.35-50 stops & option barriers I assume it has to reverse and gather stregth for the new highs around 164.04/50...

hk ab 13:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
revdax, is dlr/chf shorts on your dish?

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Ashraf laidi says Euro vulnerable to potenial ISM strength..

Halifax CB 12:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:41 GMT May 3, 2007
Hi Revdax - for this experiment I'm buying essentially at the 1 and 2 deviation lines from the trend. For major trades $CAD been a sell and hold for the last few months, as the descent rate is roughly 20x the cost. If you would like the indicator - and are running MetaTrader, or are ok at translating it from the MT language to your own platform, I'm happy to send along the source code. Or if anyone else is interested, I can put it up where it can be down-loaded. It's still a little buggy, though it won't cause any problems on your machine (the plots just need to be refreshed from time to time). The light version of the theory behind it (it's just a Kalman filter) can be found at Wikipedia by searching for "Kalman filter", the best exposition is in Yaakov Bar Shalom et al. "Estimation with Applications to Tracking and navigation", available at bookstores everywhere (well, that's a bit of an exaggeration).

hk revdax 12:54 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:46 //Before $/CAD goes to your target of 1.1047, how high can it go?

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB //
hi, did you read the Telegraph article on black-boxes that UK Alex posted yesterday? I saw there some prop analyst talking that they used some filter or smtg that was used by submarines to navigate thru the Norwegian fiords... sounded a bit like that KF you described on the Pro-> side.. just for you info..

St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
ab, the data:

*US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 21,000 TO 305,000, LOWEST IN FOUR MONTHS

*US 1Q PREL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY +1.7% VS 4Q +2.1%; Y/Y +1.1%

*US 1Q PREL UNIT LABOR COSTS +0.6% VS 4Q +6.2%; Y/Y +1.3%

HK REVDAX 12:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
$ against European mostly likely will be a down day by close today...imo. Thus the news should be used as an opportunity to go short $.

Halifax CB 12:46 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Current USDCAD 24-hr target is 1.1046, speed -0.8959 pips/hr. Mahalanobis distance (essentialy a std. deviation) is aabout 21 pips.

madrid mm 12:43 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Stating the obvious -
Something will have to give . .... don t know when, don t know where 8-)

madrid mm 12:42 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Productivity Rose 1.7% Last Quarter; Labor Costs Up 0.6%

By Courtney Schlisserman

May 3 (Bloomberg) - U.S. worker productivity last quarter grew at a slower pace while labor costs moderated, easing concern inflation would accelerate.

Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for each hour of work, rose at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, compared with a 2.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Labor costs, adjusted for productivity, rose at a lower-than-forecast 0.6 percent pace after jumping 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

HK REVDAX 12:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:24//What do you mean? $/CAD has to go up to a certain level before you buy? How did you construct those funny lines. Where can we get an indicator like that> TIA

hk ab 12:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
data, anyone?

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
good US data..

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:29 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
there's the typical data frontrunning..

Halifax CB 12:24 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Well, here goes, before the news -USDCAD Chart. Please note these are real time experiments, not trade recommendations. I am currently waiting at the first and second entries for a buy in.

hk ab 12:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
zeus, any interest in launching rocket left?

hk ab 12:17 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
e/j time for a bigger move.

GVI john 12:14 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3597	120.12	1.2139	1.9895	1.1083	0.8258	163.33
High	1.3613	120.28	1.2190	1.9998	1.1143	0.8283	163.39
Low	1.3560	119.47	1.2117	1.9871	1.1065	0.8220	162.53
05/02/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/02/2007					
5 day 	1.3622	119.72	1.2099	1.9953	1.1128	0.8284	163.06
10 day	1.3614	119.17	1.2079	1.9985	1.1174	0.8307	162.23
20 day 	1.3542	119.20	1.2120	1.9897	1.1289	0.8288	161.35
50 day 	1.3367	118.39	1.2164	1.9676	1.1516	0.8084	158.23
100 day	1.3205	119.22	1.2270	1.9630	1.1613	0.7955	157.41
200 day	1.3011	118.16	1.2324	1.9314	1.1445	0.7798	153.75

GVI john 12:09 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Sofia mik 12:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hk ab
what is you view for euryen, pls?

hk ab 11:57 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
sell e/j 163..49

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:54 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NYAM // great - tnx a lot!

London NYAM 11:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Kap// Posted something for you on help forum. BAsically its up to you to chose a confirmation rule that suits you psychologically. That may take time. In the mean time I understand you are feeling like nursing the position as am I but my confirmation signal hasnt proved wrong just yet and still treading water.

Syd 11:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Talk of AUD/JPY A$2.9 billion uridashi maturities in May

Syd 11:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
The Swiss franc is expected to remain under downward pressure due to continued carry trades, Commerzbank says. Says EUR/CHF may crawl higher towards 1.66/1.67. Notes the franc's fall has resulted in a de-facto easing of Swiss monetary conditions. "The shift in the franc raises the possibilty of a surprise inter-meeting 25 bp rate hike," bank says.

hk ab 11:27 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have a view on jap redemption of aussie and kiwi coupons? the aud/jpy looks so stalled in front of the 100 mark....

Syd 11:16 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--As many as 130 Chinese companies are due to take part in a mass purchase of U.S. goods next week, organizers said Thursday, in an apparent effort to ease tensions ahead of trade talks in Washington.

Organizers of the planned mass contract signing next Wednesday in San Francisco gave no details of what goods would be bought or a total price. But earlier Chinese news reports said companies planned to buy up to $16 billion worth of machinery, electronics and farm goods.

Beijing is going ahead with the purchases despite its anger at a pair of World Trade Organization complaints filed by Washington last month over Chinese product piracy and market access. The event is being organized by the U.S. Information Technology Office, a trade group, and the government-affiliated Chinese Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products. A brief written announcement said as many as 180 executives from up to 130 Chinese companies would take part. Earlier Chinese news reports said the buying delegation traveling with Wu would visit Washington D.C., San Francisco, Atlanta and Minneapolis

Melbourne Qindex 11:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly charts the market is expected to trade between 1.2017 - 1.2176. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.2060 // 1.2069 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.2203 // 1.2215.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.2002 - 1.2021* - 1.2031 - 1.2045 // 1.2060* - 1.2079 - 1.2089 - 1.2099* - [1.2118] - 1.2138* - 1.2147 - 1.2157 - 1.2177* // 1.2191 - 1.2206 - 1.2215* - 1.2235 ...

Mtl JP 10:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Global-View GVI 21:28 / market has a new target now.

Mtl JP 10:58 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Global-View GVI 21:28 / market has a new target now.

Como Perrie 10:57 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Citibank and Credit Suisse just launched coupla forex related products to be sold onto their's retail base customers. Overall a way to get rid of their big carry trade exposures and distribute risk elsewhere imo

madrid mm 10:57 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's largest maker of luxury cars, said first-quarter profit fell 38 percent with the dollar's decline against the euro and the cost to introduce new X5 and Mini models.

HK REVDAX 10:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Is there any earth-shattering news coming tonight?

hk ab 10:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
seems that e/j is the driver.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - sorry just saw your post - can you elaborate here ot somewhere else (Help or mail) on confirmations?
I have this problem that I observe some setups but can't really work out a system of confirming the trade - so I enter either too late or too early.. TIA

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NYAM //
hi - I still hold it.. since I didn't respect my SL rule.. I'm in hope mode.. looking on fourlies it gives some signs of retrace - while on daily the MACD has been for long in OS mode (however this might signal strong momentum, no?).. so actually difficult to rationalise - however I read several researches from different sources - all point it higher - so I will give a try to a contrarian view..

London NYAM 10:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Nigeria// Ive tried using dojis on charts of less than 1 hour and they are near useless taken on their own. They work better on 4hr charts using usual confirmation techniques. You also get a tremendous number of dojis in consolidation phases. IMHO

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my weekly cycle the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1134. A projected resistant range is expected at [1.1138] - [1.1151]. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.0950 // 1.0958 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.1122 // 1.1138.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.0933 - 1.0950* - 1.0958 - 1.0971 // 1.0984* - 1.1001 - 1.1010 - 1.1019* - [1.1036] - 1.1053* - 1.1062 - 1.1070 - 1.1087* // 1.1100 - 1.1113 - 1.1122* - 1.1139 ...

Nigeria Basorun 10:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
please have noticed dojis and a lot oif them on the 15mins chart of cable can any body plz explain wat is happening

Auckland peat 10:37 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
I went with Geneva DS's little pep talk on the Eur'Jpy and closed at 163.59 for +53 a lucky limit was taken. But it is stated after the fact...Still holding long Eur'Chf to discount the gains tho...if 1.6470 breaks these will soon be stopped. Overall b/e :+|

madrid mm 10:31 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
You can look at trend, price pattern, momentum, and all kinds of other valid factors, but I think the risk overrides everything else. It doesn''t matter how great the profit potential is ... If I can''t afford the risk I have no business taking the trade.

madrid mm 10:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
black box, green box, white box, pink box, etc...they can have as many different colour boxes as they want, a long as the market move ! 8-)

dc CB 10:28 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel miner, on Thursday bid C$5.3 billion ($4.8 billion) to take over Canada's LionOre, topping a rival offer by London-listed Xstrata.

Norilsk said in a regulatory filing it had bid 21.50 Canadian dollars a share for LionOre. That values the company at a 22.9 percent premium to its March 23 closing price, and a premium of 16.2 percent to Xstrata's earlier agreed offer.

London NYAM 10:20 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Hello Kap// Have you bailed out on your Short EUR/JPY?

Auckland peat 10:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
revadax
gold is up 3$ to 675.80

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy on 30 min looks like want to test the 200ma at 119.71 or at least the previous R line now support coming at 119.88..
of course if 120 doesn't hold..

van Gecko 09:43 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Despite the recent ease in beating down the dollar, the rules of engagement for further Dollar weakness below Index 81/80 may be quite different from the 5 year "bear walk in the park" inside the 120/80 historical bands..
Euro & cousin GBP must maintain their recent over-shoot mode or risk "bullistic acrophobia" from mutli-year heights..

As for "black box" trading "altering" the rules of the game.. nothing new under the sun as it had always been a part of the business.. all "black boxes" will turn into "bleak boxes" sooner or later as there's no holy grail edge in the market.. cheerios

Como Perrie 09:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
UBS is going to close a fixed income hedge fund for losses. Returning back funds to customers.

Melbourne Qindex 09:29 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is expected to trade between 1.0916 - 1.1016. It is now testing the supporting strength of the barrier at 1.0916 // 1.0954. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.0894 //1.0904 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.0991 // 1.1021. 


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0879 - 1.0894* - 1.0902 - 1.0914 // 1.0926* - 1.0942 - 1.0950 - 1.0958* - [1.0974] - 1.0989* - 1.0997 - 1.1005 - 1.1021* // 1.1033 - 1.1045 - 1.1053* - 1.1069 ...

Como Perrie 09:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Yeap, strange level the 1.36 on eurusd. Me light today and overall will be just watching if 1.3570/60 holds. Hard to tell imo

melbourne DC 09:21 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
0919 GMT [ ] A large Eastern European player has a buying interest in EUR/USD on dips toward 1.36, says a European bank trader. The rate is currently at 1.3611. (GST)

Syd 09:14 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
A UK clearer is buying USD/CHF dips between 1.2120-00, says a trader

HK REVDAX 09:11 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
I recall from yesterday's post by Mike of Moscow that gold is ready for a retracement. Usually his predictions are pretty good. If gold does come down today, $/CAD will most likely go up.

How is gold doing today? TIA

HK REVDAX 09:05 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NY tim 09:03 GMT//I still don't have a scientific method of profit taking and this is why I am still not a professional. I will take profit when what is inbetween my legs tells me to do so...LOL

HK REVDAX 09:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Another Special of today//Buy $/CAD at 1.1084 stop at 1.1059.

NY tim 09:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:59 GMT May 3, 2007

whats your TP for USD/JPY short - TIA

madrid mm 09:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:01 GMT May 3, 2007

he might be a silent member of GVI .....

madrid mm 09:02 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GOLD seems more intereting to trade on a daily basis really !! I don t have the B@#$%^& though 8-) yet !!!!

Syd 09:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:53 GMT the chap who I would like to answer my question isnt a member of GV , well I dont know for sure, anyway he is just about to resign from his job with a lot to answer for - think we all know who I am refering to

HK REVDAX 08:59 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Today's Special(May 3)//Sell $/JY at 120.12 with stop at 120.31.

Yesterday's short $/CAD, short $/CHF and long Eur/yen have been harvested, leaving this bum refusing to succumb.

HK REVDAX 08:56 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 03:41//I think $/CAD is basing in that it may go up today and then come down tomorrow.

HK REVDAX 08:53 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:33 //Who in this forum do you think is in an intellectual position to answer this splendid question of yours?

Como Perrie 08:48 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
There are again some Nigeria attacks onto oil platforms.

madrid mm 08:42 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
United Kingdom PMI - Services Index edges down to 57.2 in April from 57.6 in March

NY ny 08:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
From GVI sponcer TTN

(UK) APR PMI SERVICES: 57.2 V 57.5E

ldn jp 08:40 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
does anybody have UK nos please?

madrid mm 08:34 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Electricity prices may reach record highs in Europe as forecasters predict a second straight summer of soaring temperatures.

``The chances are we will see significant increases in prices,'' Kim Keats, head of power and fuels at ICF International Inc. in London, said in an interview. ``Forward prices will take this into account.''

Baseload power for next quarter in Germany, Europe's biggest market, rose 30 percent from this year's low on Feb. 23 and closed yesterday at 47.50 euros ($65) a megawatt-hour, according to GFI Group Inc. Increased demand for electricity to power air conditioners and refrigerators may send baseload, or around-the-clock, contracts as high as 60 euros, said Olaf Ter Bille, senior energy trader at the MMT Energy Fund.

Melbourne Qindex 08:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 1.5066 // 1.5125. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the lower limit of the daily cycle reference at 1.5071. The odds are high that the market will trade in the extreme level at 1.4811 - 1.4968. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.4970 // 1.4998 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.5120 // 1.5125.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.4973 - 1.4998* - 1.5010 - 1.5028 // 1.5047* - 1.5071 - 1.5083 - 1.5096* - [1.5120] - 1.5144* - 1.5157 - 1.5169 - 1.5193* // 1.5212 - 1.5230 - 1.5242* - 1.5267 ...

Como Perrie 08:23 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Dunno, currently watching crude oil half a buck higher, even if overall 66 yo 67 are key resistances holding It side to down.

Kaunas DP 08:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
some folks might be aware of UK data and bidding GBP/USD in front of the data - so +50pips on the upside is on the way - IMHO

Como Perrie 07:57 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:55 GMT May 3, 2007

:) Maybe they watched global view yesterday's on Blair

Syd 07:55 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie yes something to watch ...


LONDON (AP)--U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair intends to resign his seat in parliament when he steps down as head of government, the Press Association reported Thursday.
The U.K. news agency, citing unidentified sources, said Blair was expected to make the announcement in his northern England constituency of Sedgefield next Thursday.
Blair's office had no immediate comment on the report.

Gen dk 07:48 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:43 GMT May 3, 2007

Agree.. onto my charts the risk for emerging markets crashes has gone on top of others for the coming weeks. Russian ruble included.

Melbourne Qindex 07:47 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 106.75 - 109.49. A projected supporting level is expected at 108.12 - 108.17. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected resistant level is expected at 109.51 // 109.54 and a projected supporting level is located at 107.53 // 107.63.


Daily Cycle : ... 106.92 - 107.16* - 107.28 - 107.45 // 107.63* - 107.87 - 107.98 - 108.10* - [108.34] - 108.57* - 108.69 - 108.81 - 109.04* // 109.22 - 109.40 - 109.51* - 109.75 ...

Syd 07:43 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Risk appetite may have weathered the Turkish storm pretty well but Standard Chartered reckons that there are still risks for emerging markets. The bank notes that its risk index has come down to 57 from a high of 67 on April 4, but is up from a dip to 33 earlier this week. "Our view is that the market is still not factoring in enough of the risks on the horizon for the TRY in particular but also for the ZAR, BRL and PHP. These currencies remain vulnerable to another piece of bad news triggering a rerun of the emerging market selloff usually seen around this time of the year," the bank says.

Syd 07:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 01:51 GMT May 3, 2007 what I would like to know is who is paying for their accommodation and are they all getting cash handouts from the Soft Touch UK Government tax payer funded as usual and given free Council Houses ??


Revealed: Immigrants swell populations of British towns by 10pc
The impact of the new arrivals on small and medium-sized communities is revealed by secret Government figures, obtained by the Daily Mail.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=452330&in_page_id=1770

Como Perrie 07:22 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6614709.stm


The face-off was screened by France's two biggest TV channels and watched by an estimated 20 million people.

London Ruth 07:00 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   

That's a long rising carry trade

Syd 06:30 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:16 GMT May 3 you have to laugh , there all at it nothing ever changes

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:24 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Interesting article in S&C on The $ and Deflation.

madrid mm 06:16 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd , and others of course, if you are there for fun -

Isabel Pantoja, top Spanish singer and partner to the ex Mayor of Marbella, Julián Muñoz, has been arrested in the Malaya Corruption Case.
-everal crimes against the tax authorities,
-money laundering.

Click here

madrid mm 06:12 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
CHF Swiss CPI M/M Apr
Actual 1.10% Consensus 0.90%
CHF Swiss CPI Y/Y Apr
Actual 0.50% Consensus 0.20%

Como Perrie 06:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Morning, hence no new carry trades to come out from the swiss franc for the coming months, just management of previously established.

madrid mm 06:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
The market has a habit of doing as little as possible normally before non-farm payrolls data IMHo. But expect the bla bla bla ......

madrid mm 05:56 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

FT: The BoE has pledged to give financial markets a better idea of the circumstances that are likely to trigger interest rate changes. Gov Mervyn King told the FT that BoE was "clearly" failing to explain properly to markets how it was likely to respond to economic data. Speaking to the FT, he insisted the Bank would not "do monetary policy by code word", the practice by which the Federal Reserve and the ECB use particular phrases to signal future rates decisions.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge says Canadian dollar rise to 92 US cents level would not be considered extraordinary and does not merit intervention. Will take stronger CAD into account in July MPR if it persists. Rise in CAD from between Jan to early April reflects firmer commodity prices.

BoC Dep Governor Paul Jenkins says BoC does not expect US recession, but only slower growth.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says he does not think Kiwi will fall sharply until RBNZ Governor signals end to tightening. - Reuters.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says in short term, we all want a lower Kiwi. He has been dissatisfied for some considerable time about the impact of RBNZ monetary policy on the export sector which so heavily penalises the export sector. Cullen says the way monetary policy is implemented is buoying the currency and penalising exporters.

WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: Inflation is close to the Fed's preferred level, but don't expect a declaration of victory just yet. Fed officials are scheduled to meet next week, and are likely to leave Fed Funds at 5.25%. They are also likely to reiterate that inflation is their predominant concern, even though inflation recently edged lower.

Fed officials also still see risks to growth, especially from weakness in business investment and housing, but those risks don't appear to have grown in the past month.

Another Quiet market with Japan, China away on Golden Week and Labour Day holidays till next week.

EUR/JPY managed to eke out new all time highs of 163.58, hitting stops above 163.50 option triggers after being capped ahead of 163.45-50 for a while.

Next key level to watch will be 163.75/ 164.00, though hearing interesting talks of Japanese brokerages/ securities houses selling at highs (despite the holiday). EUR/JPY buying pushing EUR/USD back up above 1.36 handle again, and putting a floor on USD/JPY above 120.

USD/JPY offers still coming in at 120.40-50, but stops above, with next key level 120.75 - the highs since on Feb 27 2007.

EUR/USD hearing bids at 1.3550-60 from Russian, East European and even talks of China (despite public holidays), Sovereign names while offers at 1.3620-30 from funds, with focus on tonight ECB policymakers comments, US ISM and US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson comments. Stoploss will come on break of 1.3540/ 1.3500.

CAD finding support on BoC Dodge comments downplaying intervention at 0.92 (1.0870), with talks of good interest still to sell USD/CAD on rallies, bids at 1.1050, but stoploss on break of key 1.1000, not surprised to rumours of huge options triggers there.

Kiwi finding some support on NZ Cullen "acknowledgement" that unless RBNZ stops tightening, Kiwi will not fall sharply, but offers capping 0.74.

AUD eye RBA MPS for likely downward CPI revision, though interest still to buy AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY on dips. Cable off lows after yesterday GBP/CAD sales, eye UK CIPS data. Offers 1.9950-2.00.

Nikkei and JGBs closed for Japan Golden Week holidays.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.13/120.26, EUR/USD 1.3582/1.3607, GBP/USD 1.9879/1.9908, USD/CHF 1.2130/1.2149, AUD/USD 0.8242/0.8252, NZD/USD 0.7373/0.7387.

Syd 05:37 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has said the bank needs to better explain the circumstances that are likely to trigger interest rate changes, the Financial Times reports Thursday.

In an interview, King told the paper the bank needs to "give people this feel for how we are likely to react to data".

However he repeated his previous position that the bank would not "do monetary policy by code word," the practice by which for instance the European Central Bank signals future rate decisions by use of key phrases.
www.ft.com

madrid mm 05:35 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Blmbrg currncies reportsClick here

Syd 05:34 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
UBS AG (UBS) said Thursday that first-quarter net profit slipped 7% from a year-ago, and moved to shut an in-house hedge fund set up in 2005 after it posted record losses.

Europe's second-largest bank by market capitalization said net income for the three months was CHF3.28 billion ($2.71 billion) from CHF3.5 billion a year ago and below the CHF3.33 billion analysts had forecast.

UBS also said it will redeem outside investors' money from in-house hedge fund Dillon Read Capital Management, after what it termed 'record' losses in mortgage securities in the unit during the quarter.

madrid mm 05:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi, meanwhile Yen Slides to Record Low Against Euro as Investors Increase Carry Trades .......8-)

Syd 05:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian New Auto Sales -19.9% In Apr Vs Mar - Industry

madrid mm 05:25 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - FBI Finds Online Fraud Aimed at Hotel Guests, Internet Cafes

By Robert Schmidt

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tens of millions of dollars have been looted from online brokerage accounts in a fast-growing fraud that targets unsuspecting hotel guests and Internet cafe patrons, Federal Bureau of Investigation officials say.

The U.S. Justice Department has stepped up enforcement against the schemes, which combine elements of 21st-century identity theft and old-fashioned stock fraud; the department unsealed its first criminal charges in March. Five civil complaints have been brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission since December.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4nFvl5UAe4E&refer=home

OC_CO 05:20 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
hello randall: what do you think of gbp/usd?

Perth Randall El 05:15 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
========
1.13 is coming

Syd 05:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Fed officials see obstacles to lower inflation-WSJ
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials see obstacles to further declines in U.S. inflation, including a rebound in energy prices, a weaker dollar and the failure of unemployment to rise as expected, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday on its Web site.

The Journal reported the statements from unnamed Fed officials ahead of a meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next week. They are likely to leave their target for short-term interest rates at 5.25 percent, the Journal reported.

They also are likely to reiterate that inflation is their dominant concern, even though it recently edged lower, the newspaper reported.

USA BAY 04:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

YEAH, I am waiting for a reversal in usd/cad before going long. Once the reversal starts I think 1.20 is in play. All the best. gt/gl

USA Zeus 04:44 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:37 GMT May 3, 2007
Not sure when that report was made but you may very well be right. No arguments here. The market will do what the market will do. Win or lose it is just another trade.
cheers

Bangkok bkk 04:44 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Just Took Profit usd/jpy long this morning @ 120.20 (85 pips)
I see 120.25/30 is a temporary top. usd/jpy may consolidate between 119.70 - 120.30 today

IMHO...

USA BAY 04:37 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

YES true, there has been reported buying of cad/jpy, selling of gbp/cad and usd/cad by UK dealers, so all that will/might contribute further to usd/cad weakness.

USA Zeus 04:27 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:17 GMT May 3, 2007
Sure. My point was just that the CAD/YEN strength is a yen- not CAD story. As for trend, countertrend trades it is all subjectively defined by one's own paradigm. USD/CAD will go up or down but it won't be determined by what the historical lagging average price has been, but that average will later reflect what did happen. GT

Melbourne Qindex 04:19 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY (Weekly Cycle)  : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 240.63 - 242.54. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 242.54. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 236.83 - 244.44. The daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 236.48 // 236.93 and a projected resistant level is located at 239.84 // 240.86.

Daily Cycle : ... 234.80 - 235.36* - 235.64 - 236.06 // 236.48* - 237.04 - 237.32 - 237.60* - [238.16] - 238.72* - 239.00 - 239.28 - 239.84* // 240.26 - 240.68 - 240.96* - 241.52 ...

dc CB 04:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 03:49 GMT May 3, 2007

better to watch IVEY on friday.

Melbourne Qindex 04:18 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY (Weekly Cycle)
Daily Cycle : ... 234.80 - 235.36* - 235.64 - 236.06 // 236.48* - 237.04 - 237.32 - 237.60* - [238.16] - 238.72* - 239.00 - 239.28 - 239.84* // 240.26 - 240.68 - 240.96* - 241.52 ...

USA BAY 04:17 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

I still feel going long usd/cad is a counter trend trade, the bearish trend is still strong and the 10 day M/A is still intact. As for jpy strength I am very sceptical about it.

Prague viktor 04:03 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
G.day all!is this level a good one to short the E/U ??G/LG/T

dc CB 04:00 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:25 GMT May 2, 2007
IMF's Rato Concerned Over Pension Investment In Hedge Funds
WASHINGTON International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato on Wednesday said he is concerned ...

Consider this analogy. Yesterday there were two major fires in DC, occuring within hours of each other. One burned the Eastern Market, the other at the Georgetown Library. Firefighters had difficulty at the latter because of low water pressure.

Today it was revealed that a minimum of 50 fire hydrants in the city are not in operation...some not working for well over a year, even though the city was aware they were broken. And beyond that, fire deparments that are located near the non working hydrants have for the most part not been given the heads up that the hydrants are our of service. One of the hydrants across the street from the Embasy of Singapore, so they are not confined to the "poorer" neighborhoods.

USA Zeus 03:56 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 03:41 GMT May 3, 2007

BAY- Of course you know my bias but what does CAD/YEN have to do with it? It would be a random coincidence. The story there is yen weakness- or so it would seem after viewing the USD, EUR and GBP vs the yen. All very strong bid vs yen.

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:49 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 03:39 GMT May 3, 2007 || Thank you CB! Observed the market reaction after the testimony and saw a drop in EURCAD of ~40 pips. Do you anticipate any aftershocks?

USA BAY 03:41 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX,

YEAP, you are right but I think imvvho that 1.1130/40 (doubtful of that even because of cad/jpy strength), should cap before targeting 1.09xx area. What do you think? TIA

Melbourne Qindex 03:40 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 119.13 - 121.68. My daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 119.60 // 119.63 and a projected resistant level is located at 121.03 // 121.31.

Daily Cycle : ... 118.75 - 119.03* - 119.17 - 119.39 // 119.60* - 119.89 - 120.03 - 120.17* - [120.46] - 120.74* - 120.88 - 121.03 - 121.31* // 121.53 - 121.74 - 121.88* - 122.17 ...

lkwd jj 03:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm still like chf to challenge 1.2240? had a shot earlier when it was @ 12185 but backed off and has gone nowhere since.

dc CB 03:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 22:01 GMT May 2, 2007
Testimony before a Senate banking committee by Dodge and
bank Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins after the market close could drive the overnight performance of the currency.


for those with time on their hands....archived.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/pages/en/bankofcanada20070502/

HK REVDAX 03:33 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:33//$/CAD...all set to have a slight rebound today before going down again tomorrow.

Melbourne Qindex 03:10 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle): The weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.8211 - 0.8457. the market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.8334. The daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 0.8187 // 0.8206 and a projected resistant level is located at 0.8363.

Daily Cycle : ... 0.8147 - 0.8166* - 0.8176 - 0.8191 // 0.8206* - 0.8225 - 0.8235 - 0.8245* - [0.8265] - 0.8285* - 0.8294 - 0.8304 - 0.8324* // 0.8339 - 0.8353 - 0.8363* - 0.8383 ...

USA Zeus 03:09 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 01:24 GMT May 3, 2007

CB- Think the st critical aspects will deal more with what happens on the funnymental reactions esp Fri. As for white noise etc- know all too much about that stuff. While the market was slow decided to plot my kalman filters again just for old times sake. Been a few yrs looking at that.
As from this point anything can happen so most important aspects are to plan the trade and trade the plan- discipline, discipline, discipline.
GT

Syd 03:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ's Auckland House Prices Ease In April - Barfoot & Thompson

Melbourne Qindex 02:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP (Weekly Cycle) : The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.6798 - 0.6849. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.6798 - 0.6901. The daily cycle indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 0.6777 // 0.6787 and a projected resistant level is located at 0.6845 // 0.6851.

Daily Cycle : ... 0.6758 - 0.6768* - 0.6772 - 0.6780 // 0.6787* - 0.6797 - 0.6801 - 0.6806* - [0.6816] - 0.6825* - 0.6830 - 0.6835 - 0.6845* // 0.6852 - 0.6859 - 0.6864* - 0.6874 ...

Syd 02:28 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min: Need To Examine Monetary Policy's Impact On Econ

The New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen said Thursday the government needs to examine ways to supplement monetary policy to curb domestic demand because higher interest rates are damaging the export economy.

Cullen also indicated that the government would unveil a large surplus for the fiscal year that ends June 30, 2007, in its budget proposals for the fiscal 2008, which will be released May 17.

In his traditional pre-budget speech to the Canterbury Manufacturers Association, Cullen said there is no "pain-free way" of reducing domestic demand when the economy is overheating.

"Any changes will require a broad consensus in Parliament. We need to examine the objectives of monetary policy, the mechanisms to achieve them, and the obstacles to effective monetary policy," the minister said.

Cullen said there is a need to examine ways of translating the impact of monetary policy more quickly and effectively than happens currently, adding that he preferred that fresh ideas be discussed through Parliament's select committee.

The finance minister's comments suggest the government will continue to pursue ways to curb domestic demand, especially demand emanating from the housing market, to cool inflation and reduce emphasis on interest rate hikes.

Melbourne Qindex 02:26 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9933. The daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.9870 // 1.9883 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.9983 // 1.9987.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.9841 - 1.9870* - 1.9885 - 1.9906 // 1.9928* - 1.9957 - 1.9972 - 1.9987* - [2.0016] - 2.0045* - 2.0059 - 2.0074 - 2.0103* // 2.0125 - 2.0147 - 2.0161* - 2.0191 ...

Melbourne Qindex 02:07 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the lower barrier at 1.3546 // 1.3590. The current daily cycle analysis indicates that a projected supporting level is located at 1.3502 // 1.3514 and a projected resistant barrier is expected at 1.3635 // 1.3644.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.3468 - 1.3483* - 1.3491 - 1.3502 // 1.3514* - 1.3529 - 1.3537 - 1.3544* - [1.3559] - 1.3575* - 1.3582 - 1.3590 - 1.3605* // 1.3616 - 1.3628 - 1.3635* - 1.3651 ...

Syd 01:59 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 01:51 did that a few years back thank god , just wonder when the country is going to sink

Manchester st 01:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
actually=escape

Manchester st 01:51 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:46 GMT May 3, 2007
You always like to read news from the Old Dart?...lol..dont get too homesick...people are want to actually actually from here...lol

Syd 01:46 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Revealed: Immigrants swell populations of British towns by 10pc
The impact of the new arrivals on small and medium-sized communities is revealed by secret Government figures, obtained by the Daily Mail.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=452330&in_page_id=1770

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:32 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
The dollar-shekel is so weak that the Bank of Israel will have great trouble meeting its inflation target for the year, which is 1 to 3 percent. Each 1 percent the dollar loses lowers the consumer price index by 0.3 percent, the Bank of Israel calculates. The dollar weakened by 8.5 percent in January-December 2006, which alone lowered the CPI by 2.5 percent. The weak dollar is therefore the main reason that inflation ended 2006 at a negative 0.1 percent. full article...

Halifax CB 01:24 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - here's something you might appreciate - the big specter haunting smooth models - whether little ones like mine or big ones used by the late, inappropriately named, Long Term Capital Management - is a "fellow" known as White Noise Jerk. I won't go into the math - but he's to smooth models what hulking playground bullies are to pre-schoolers - the type that stamps on the teeter-totter when you're at the wrong end, and then (if you're still holding on) lets go....So I'm keeping my eyes peeled...

tokyo ginko 01:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
buidling small short usd/jpy here for medium term play. GT all

Syd 01:01 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min: Need Lower NZD To Be Competitive In Short Term
Favor Committe Inquiry To Discuss Options
No Easy Options Avialable To Supplement OCR
Need To Examine Monetary Policy's Impact On Econ

Syd 00:39 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Fed To Stay Concerned About Inflation - Ip
Inflation is close to Fed's preferred level but don't expect declaration of victory yet, says WSJ Fed watcher Greg Ip; FOMC meets next week and is likely to leave rates at 5.25%, reiterate inflation is predominant concern, even though inflation recently edged lower; Fed officials also still see risks to growth, especially from weak business investment, housing but those risks don't appear to have grown in past month, Ip says. Adds, according to Fed officials, are potential obstacles to further declines in inflation, like a rebound in energy prices, drop in USD and, most important, failure of unemployment to rise as expected; payrolls tomorrow will show if long-expected weakening in U.S. job markets has begun. "To be sure, Fed officials are happy with the latest inflation news (but they are) wary of taking great comfort," Ip says; with core inflation at or above 2% for 3 years, Fed's inclined to see any move up from today's level as far more consequential than a move lower.

Syd 00:08 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
RBC No Longer Expects Fed Cut This Year
USD remains well bid vs JPY after NY gains with USD/JPY trading around 120.17, EUR/USD steady around 1.3592, EUR/JPY lurking near record highs; trade quiet though with Japan market shut and as focus shifts to tomorrow's U.S. payrolls, especially as ADP estimate last night came out on weak side. RBC Capital Markets retains optimistic outlook for U.S. growth, says Fed will now avoid cutting rates and timing of rate hike is "probably sooner than originally anticipated"; has taken June 2007 25bp Fed rate cut out of forecast, despite fact futures markets still see single rate cut as most likely outcome this year. RBC now expects Fed to hike 25 bps in 2Q08 and again in 3Q with Fed Funds rate peaking at 5.75%

Syd 00:06 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
Go Long EUR/NZD, Short AUD/USD - Morgan Stanley
Rotate long GBP/NZD into long EUR/NZD, says Morgan Stanley, which looks for "additional unwind of New Zealand dollar strength"; with RBNZ signaling likely peak in rates, one aspect of support for NZD seems set to fade, plus policy tightening to date, recent rise in fixed mortgage rates should put more pressure on economy. Likes NZD shorts on 3-month view, particularly vs EUR; continues to target 2.00. In line with view on NZD, says AUD running out of steam; "notwithstanding the tightness in labor markets, the RBA's decision to hold steady at its last two decisions may hint at a tamer inflation projection going forward." Adds short AUD/USD to existing short AUD/JPY recommendation. Elsewhere, CAD should keep making up ground on crosses with underlying fundamentals supportive; says hold short GBP/CAD

ABHA FXS 00:02 GMT May 3, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy 239.15 for 235.90 stop 239.60