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Forex Forum Archive for 05/04/2007

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Halifax CB 23:08 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
JP - in his defence, I was reading of a rather interesting event on another board where during one of those "misquote" events (where a price something like 200 pips off the mark) was given - people who caught it had their deals cancelled, while those who got hit on SL's were SOL.

HOU rj 23:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl/Jp
I accept what ever u said
Good week end for u, do not bother what ever I have said , consider It has gone with the wind

Mtl JP 22:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 22:32 what I know about you is your hair colour and age. I deduce that your IQ must be below your age, seeing as "just add global-view" (since July 10, 2005) still is not enough for you and leaves you feeling compelled to go seek protection from congress.

HOU rj 22:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
tokyo.ginko
For at the top it is difficult to manage
Their need ,
Inter Dealer
dealer- customer operations
So I thought regulation is in the horizon
I may be totally wrong

RIC fxq 22:42 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 20:45 GMT

who is this turkey? more regulation? bah friggin' humbug!!!!!!!!

HOU rj 22:34 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I think , It is getting extended
I would call it a week end
Good week end mtl and and south Atlanta

HOU rj 22:32 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
mtl/jp
why u r jumping in to conclusions , subprime foreclosure thing and all
What u know about me
and what I know about u
Nothing

HOU rj 22:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
mtl/jp
My hair beccome grey not only beccause of my age
I have seen top to bottom
I have seen and heard lot of these jargons
u have u r way
let me have my way
rj

Mtl JP 22:17 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj, you sound like a siamese twin of that idiot Schumer of "Sheltering Neighborhoods from the Subprime Foreclosure Storm" legislation fame.

Bring it on brother: solutions AFTER the fact.

HOU rj 22:16 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
mtl/jp
u r post at 21.23 addressed to me referring some gun controls ete , I was making sure that I do know nothing about gun ete
I more than 50 years old , I never seen a gun , never touched it and never in my whole life went to a police statiom
I am clean never got a traffic ticket in my life

Mtl JP 22:04 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 21:59, did I ask you IF you seen or touched a gun ?!

I asked you IF you think you can think for yourself and act on your own behalf.

tokyo ginko 21:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 21:38 GMT May 4, 2007
SO FOREX NEED NO SPREADS

====
Hi rj, i do not know what exactly is your issue or where you are coming from.

But your comment above 'SO FOREX NEED NO SPREADS' is the same as saying 'Everyone in this world should buy/sell everything at the same price' ???

Think about it. FWIW. Have a good w/e.

HOU rj 21:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL/jp
Honnestly speaking I never seen a gun or touched it
Never seen a police station

HOU rj 21:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South
I am watching u, for the last 3 years
With respect to creed or origin
I can tell u with out seeing u
That u r a chakka/ means man with out a spin

Mtl JP 21:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 21:41 - a dellusional dirigistic wanna-be communist do-gooder, good for entertainment on a Fr afternoon.

Atlanta South 21:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
MTL jp
Ref 21:39 I agree 100% my friend. A sore loser we have among us.

HOU rj 21:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I am sure I bored so many
Have a beautifull week end

Atlanta South 21:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Why don't you just put your money in a bank CD & discontinue
your bitching & complaining! How about some cheese with your wine?

Mtl JP 21:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 21:23 / u sound just like the cry-babies screaming for more guncontrol AFTER the cops come to pickup the dead bodies which they were supposed to protect in the firstplace.

Can' t you think for yourself and act on your own behalf, loser ?

HOU rj 21:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
SO FOREX NEED NO SPREADS

HOU rj 21:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Another thing I would ask is that
If app. 99.00 out of 100.00 traders fail and u packet them
why u guys need SPREAD

HOU rj 21:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
It is simple
U Dealers, u have u r own own protection and insurance
Why not me as a new trader have insuance or protection
This is what I am going to the congress

GVI john 20:52 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

HOU rj 20:45 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I am calling for a regulated Forex market to the congress
Other wise also all these dealers share the risk of invontory between themseleves
Then why not a regulatory body

Atlanta South 20:43 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
To those & myself included that are looking for the $/CAD to lift off it just might be doing so early next week. Getting on the launching pad soon might be an idea to ponder. If 1090
yields, well you know the possible outcome. A great weekend & good trades to all.

Atlanta South 20:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
When time permits give email a look. Tks & gt.

HOU rj 20:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
So the Secret Codes misfired at the Bond Market

HOU rj 20:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I did not felt a spike while watching Dealears platform

HOU rj 20:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Informed and un informed

Halifax CB 20:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 18:40 GMT May 4, 2007

Thanks. for the feed back. The new software (I put up a link to it earlier) is a little different, and you may find it easier to work on 4 hour charts. The big thing to remember is that the 4 hour charts have less noise in them, so that to get the same noise suppression level in a 4 hour as you might get in a 1 hour, you have to decrease the the suppression level by 6(db). Increase it going the other way (from a four hour to 1 hour). Also change the statistical Samples rate since the 4 hour chart uses only 1/4 the samples of of the 1 hour chart to cover the same period.
Re the indicator itself - that was something I could bang together quickly, the next step is to use make the filter a callable function, so it can get used in standard tools running average based methods like MACD.
GL/GT...

HOU rj 20:05 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Then I have to accept The Theory of
HAVE AND HAVE NOTES

HOU rj 20:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
This is the theory of
Informed and Informed
I am going to take this issue to the higher levels
How can 88 can beccome 188
Everybody need to answer

FW CS 19:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone think the French election outcome will affect the Euro at all this coming Sunday?

USA BAY 19:58 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

THANKS, Have a great one.

Lahore FM 19:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:53 GMT May 4, 2007
buy 8400 for 8600.

dc CB 19:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
CD -- specs adding longs but not agressively

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm


g/we/all

USA BAY 19:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

Your thoughts on eur/nzd pls. tia

Lahore FM 19:50 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 19:36 GMT May 4, 2007
agree with you RJ,exploration on one's own will lead to discovery.good weekend!

Halifax CB 19:48 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:25 GMT May 4, 2007
I hope so, my orders are beginning to feel like Priscilla the Wallflower on Prom night. Twice in the last two days the bids come right up to within a point, and then backed off. Must be the onions I ate....

USA BAY 19:44 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

You are right.

Take care everyone. Have a great weekend and see you Forexerers next week.

Zeus,

Getting ready to long Usd/Cad next week. Sayonara

HOU rj 19:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
This is meant for the newbiees watching this forum silently
may be hundreds or thousands
Do not get carried away by the jargons by discribing a trend line by
Linear,Quadratic,Cubic,Linear_log, Reciprocal,Log-Linear,Double log, Logistic ete
Keep drawing the trend lines based on u r belief what u have seen or obseved so far in the market
Good luck, keep drawing the trend lines as I mentioned above
U will be a winner

tokyo ginko 19:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
morning all from tokyo. it is 424am here. got up to see USD/CAD back to yesterday’s closing price.
still maintain long USD/CAD for medium term for first target 1.1350 levels.

Looking forward to Monday , when NK resume after a 2-day break, a 200 pt up would entice some corporate buying for first target 17775 levels.

Have a nice weekend all!

USA Zeus 19:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Feel indicator says the dealers want to feel USD/CAD 1.1080 here.

Gen dk 19:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 19:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
closed out short cadjpy at 108.55 for +33 pips, see you guys next week, still looking for another entry for usdjpy

Sofia mik 18:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Good weekend !

Lahore FM 18:43 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 18:40 GMT May 4, 2007
1.2090/2100 looking firm ...will see about it next week.good weekend all!

HOU rj 18:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
I devoted one full week screen time for u r Indicator
Kalman Filter.
Iwas eyeballing and doing mental trading.
My feed back to u is ,
It is encouraging not a bad one ,
If u could devolap it to a minimum 4 hr TF, it would have nice
Thanks for all u r effort
I trade using simple trend lines drawn without outerspace

LKWD JJ 18:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm good w/e to you . oil closing down 1.37 below 62 bucks. as for usdchf need to play ranges as opposed to 1way street as it failed near 12170 again.12100 holding support but .....

Lahore FM 18:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:00 GMT May 3, 2007
Vienna GD 17:51 GMT May 3, 2007
GD,it looks 676/690 heading into nfp.silver to catch up.
---------------
looks 683 can be bought for attemp to break recent highs around 693.
silver to do some more catching up.

LKWD JJ 18:18 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
remember those wild and wacky e-trade commercials that ran until the mkt crashed? we might not be there yet , but the commercials are running on msn video ads.

HOU rj 18:16 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak,
There is a seperate forum for futeres on this site.
Please look on the left side below forex Forum.
U may try there also
Shatterfield,Simons Research/Rosewood are the names coming offhand to me, but I know nothing about options,futeres ,FRR ete
Hope it may give little help

Geneva DS 18:06 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR....
you start scaring me... 5 weeks ago, you mentionned a crash in DOW would be the unexpected.... so do you see soon a crash in GBPJPY....? thanks GL GT

USA Zeus 17:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:33 GMT May 4, 2007

Thanks for the info. Perhaps we can discover a fractalized bi-polar umpteenth order quadratic multi-loading algorithm for a more efficient truck haul. :-)

Best of trades and enjoy your w/e!
-Z-

Mumbai Deepak 17:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys....

Can any one explain with the help of an example on "How a gamma hedgeing is done using FxOptions".

I would also appreciate any link on free FxOptions pricing software (I need to price KO and RKO options) if there is one on the internet.

TIA.

Como Perrie 17:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
UsdCad 1.1040/20 must hold to avoid 1.0920

Halifax CB 17:33 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - no problem...As for the dump trucks, will do, but not until I've got mine first in line :)

As for the speed, it is pretty subjective. It comes from the model I choose to fit follow the trend (once I think I've found one), once it's started I find it best to leave the parameters fixed, so what comes out the other end is consistent even if disagreeable. So I should preface the speed comments with "The model says...." but somehow that doesn't sound right...

Como Perrie 17:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:45 GMT May 4, 2007

Yeap ..complex week ahead, tks for the mining flows the other day, very supportive in what I was at to.

Whatever the french election just cleaned up all eurusd longs from earlier - too much a risk for me. I'll see monday Sarkozy if polls confirming him, on the other Royal to win just becouse a woman is not enough maybe, as too much welfare in her programs I guess for markets to digest. On the other very early Sarkozy might hint upon ECB or euro strenght at the very beginning and then correct in months ahead.

So far next week key eurusd to me will be approx 1.35 and 1.37 ..so time to watch as we are just in the middle.

have a nice w/e

USA Zeus 17:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:02 GMT May 4, 2007

Pardon me. I guess I read between the lines that you were quadratically targeting a number yodeled by Dodge.

As for the -.85 pips/hr it must be a subjective measure as I do not see it quite the same. 1.1060 is getting old- almost a week old. Otherwise, please tell me where the loaders are and I'll leave a dump truck there for the hourly pip payout in perpetuity. :-)

Halifax CB 17:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:49 GMT May 4, 2007
Don't ask me, ask the folks who are pushing it down at .85 pips an hour. I'm just along for the ride, and it's been rather pleasant. If they want to turn it around and go the other way, that's fine by me too :)

HK Kevin 16:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:45 GMT, China National Petroleum, up 16% in HK Stock Exchange

PAR 16:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy victory fully discounted and it looks like most takeovers financed with gigantic yen loans,thats why Paulson is such a big fan of a weak yen . Much cheaper than broker loan rate.GBPJPY chart and Dow chart extremely similar . Have a nice weekend .

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 16:51 GMT May 4, 2007 || Correction 1.097

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:11 GMT May 4, 2007 || Simply venting some observations... I am in the trade as my bias is for the upside even at Dr. Q's level. Could very well be wrong on this, which is why I have a firm stop at 1.107.

USA Zeus 16:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:11 GMT May 4, 2007
CB- Is Dodge the ice cream man? If he said in all of his eheem (yik-yak bs) that he could tolerate 1.08x or 1.02x or 0.85x does that mean free CAD is in the offering?

If so, then why on earth haven't we seen everyone running up to the ice cream truck for a free treat after the entitlement announcement? Could it be that one's yoddle of thresh levels does not control a free open market system?

dc CB 16:45 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
oh yay oh yay! Today's lottery winners were the holders of Yahoo and Reuters. Only a little over 3 hours to go before the agents close for the weekend. Good odds on French Co's and the American maker of those zapper guns with a Sarkozy victory possible.

Bangkok bkk 16:44 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I tend to agree with Zeus on USD/JPY.
The short-medium term trend is very clear. Why someone still short usd/jpy pair each day as they rise? From the long side, we can get a very nice interest rate also.

The trend is your friend... IMHO.

------------------------------------------------------
USA Zeus 14:56 GMT May 4, 2007
hk revdax 14:41 GMT May 4, 2007
If I were using your system I'd say absolutely! But, I am not. Unlike the daily specials to scalp short the yen pairs each day as they rise without any stop loss strategy, I am not fighting anything.

USA Zeus 16:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Would not be surprised to see USD/CAD pop up a bit soon from the nearly week long 1.1060 level.

GENEVA DS 16:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin... funny post.... I like it... and on the other hand, if USD CHF closes over 1.3699 today, then it will probably not see 1.0676 on monday.... good laugh... haha.... gl gt

Halifax CB 16:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 15:32 GMT May 4, 2007
Think it's likely? I've got this stuck in a really narrow trend for more than a day, but slowing a bit (deccelerated about 5% over the last week, now travelling at about -0.85 pips per hour). FWIW, I've got a bottom off a quadratic fit coming in around 2-3 weeks, in the high 1.08's. Fits Dodge's statements, roughly speaking...

London NYAM 16:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Cable// Id say the chances of another go at 2.0000 have multiplied. But a new high is still 50-50.

HK Kevin 15:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:35 GMT, if Cable closed above 1.8920 today, your 1.2005 may be possible next Mon

hk revdax 15:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 15:31//I am still interested in that tunnel indicator you use but i could not afford the time following the market. Thus I am using a teacher's indicator to enable myself to foretell what will happen .

Como Perrie 15:34 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Tks all


Imo US has to slow down It's economy to avoid further deficits balloning.. but might be wrong even if the current datas are confirming It. Tough year ahead to watch

so far take a look

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7469.htm

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:32 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
A $CAD close ~1.110 has the making of a reversal with a nice double legged retracement into what could be a 2-B Bottom.

moscow mike 15:31 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:20 GMT May 4, 2007
Thank you revdax. Seems feeling indicator worked out well.

GT

Global-View Research 15:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:

FX Briefing 4 May 2007 - Dollar treading water

hk revdax 15:27 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:05 //I Ching

hk revdax 15:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:05//Geometry

mumbai 15:20 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hello global-view......how can i contact you?

hk revdax 15:20 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 15:03//Quite right. I am a school teacher but i don't teach maths.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie //
YiJing - it's commonly referred as a manual on predictions but the basis much deeper - smtg touched in DaoDeJing u mentioned..

Global-View 15:18 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
mumbai 15:12 GMT May 4, 2007 , as you can tell, our forums are for Market flow, not broker talk - send us an EMAIL

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 15:13 GMT May 4, 2007

Market squared up ahead of Hoenig speech

moscow mike 15:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
looks like US$ has some back up undercover strength

mumbai 15:12 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hi forum,
i m new to censored ....
anybody trading live with censored could u pls tell me how is your experience with censored? mainly trade execution and withdrawal and transperency..........your input is appreciated....

Como Perrie 15:05 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Looks some as Ching related, but might be wrong. You know the Tao book.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:05 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
revdax - what's that high school book?

USA Zeus 15:04 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:59 GMT May 4, 2007
Are you a high school literary teacher applying math cycles or a math teacher applying literary cycles? Just curious. :-)

moscow mike 15:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:42 GMT May 3, 2007
HK REVDAX

Dear sir, why i do always have a feeling that you are a school teacher? Could you throw some light on my feeling, pls...

Como Perrie 15:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
fwiw Heard there's an agreement with the French new elected, about to redeal the consensus upon the euro next months ref. previous referendum. So far not a trade suggestion, just reminding that - market talking - the french elections might be less a factor than expected

hk revdax 15:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:57 //perhaps but the downtrend of US$ will not be reversed until next Tuesday at the latest.

hk revdax 14:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:39//I arrived at that conclusion after consulting a high school cycle book. This cycle methodology correctly predicted 120.50-70 of $/JY was a romantic but unrealistic dream. Now this high school cycle book is saying what i wrote down on the possible development of $/JY.

Toronto MRC 14:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
interesting

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
can we see some USD buying now at london fix?

Toronto MRC 14:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Potentially intereting trade in crude. Looks to me like the market is supported at the 50 day ma and at the bottom of a rising channel. This choppy trading is encouraging long to cover and shorts to grow which I beleive will be the motivation to take this over 66.66. I have bought hard at 63 with a stop just below 62.70. Weather map starting to warm up in the southern states. all imho GL GT

USA Zeus 14:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:41 GMT May 4, 2007
If I were using your system I'd say absolutely! But, I am not. Unlike the daily specials to scalp short the yen pairs each day as they rise without any stop loss strategy, I am not fighting anything.

Strategy for my building block USD/CAD position building is fully outlined in the archives many times so won't bother again here. Been making a few pips here and there skimming some cream off the top. Imagine when it rises higher- much higher!
GT to you!

London NYAM 14:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:41 GMT May 4, 2007 // THAT sounds like a school teacher too. LOL
droll v. droll Zeus

Lahore FM 14:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 14:31 GMT May 4, 2007
BOC Gov Dodge--
-No thought of reversing decision to stop "leaning aginst wind" through fx intervention (means no intervention)
- There are risk on noth sides inc arry trades, one-way bets a very dangerous thing

hk revdax 14:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:22 //Don't you think this is like fighting against a trend?

HK Kevin 14:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:35 GMT, I see Cable's intraday resistance at 1.9910 and 1.9950, so take partial profit near 1.9910.

USA Zeus 14:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:37 GMT May 4, 2007
That sounded like something a school teacher would say. Any idea why?

hk revdax 14:37 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Having had a massage, my mind seems clearer. The ideal development of cycles will be for $/JY to close above today's mid-point before weekend and then continue down next Monday to 119.60, not much of an avalanche. Anyone has more ambitious target than that? TKS

dc CB 14:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:14 GMT May 4, 2007
IVEY pur man index from canada

The IVEY employment is the most interesting. 61.2. Next friday's Labour Report could again move CD.

http://www.ivey.uwo.ca/IPMINet/FixedGraph.aspx?indx=1&fr=False&24m=False&12m=False&6m=False&3m=False&dpv=False

slv sam 14:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:24 GMT /
already you closed half...means you are not comfortable with your position. If you are asking my opinion, wait till next week if you want to short gbp!GT

HK Kevin 14:24 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:06 GMT, I'm long Cable yesterday from 1.9878 yesterday. My concern is the pair has made a new low today. So I think 1.9940/40 is max for this correction unless sth wrong with usd. Already close half at 1.9905.

Como Perrie 14:22 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
The US market for default swaps on junk-rated loans -- which provide a kind of insurance against non-payment of the debt -- has seen outstanding notional volumes jump to $52.1 billion in the first four months of 2007 from $31.6 billion at the end of last year, according to estimates from Lehman Brothers.

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Looks like USD/CAD is going to get squeezed.

Halifax CB 14:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 14:13 GMT May 4, 2007
I tend to agree, though the not-so-good Ivey numbers might at least bring it out of the 1 std band.

Lahore FM 14:14 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
IVEY pur man index from canada at 60.9 against 67.3 last and 57.3 consensus.

guess some heat is out.

Como Perrie 14:14 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Higher productivity we have seen was most probably a consequence of job losses. We need to see It next month again to clear It out..

QC JUANZP1 14:14 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:09 GMT May 4, 2007
slv sam 14:06 GMT May 4, 2007
Como Perrie 14:09 GMT May 4, 2007


Thanks for the unselfish idea guys.

Atlanta South 14:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
FWIW I really don't see much upside in the near future for the
$/CAD. 1040-45 could offer support for now. Just my views.

Halifax CB 14:12 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn - here's mine on the USDJPY, which (to me) says long but light, with narrow SL's Chart

Como Perrie 14:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Market is very slow currently and might stay so into closing imo. I'll not add trades anymore today, just watch

RIC fxq 14:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
QC JUANZP1 14:05 GMT

not astrology but I have a prj high at 19942 w/ a 44.6% probability it will, fwiw.

Mtl JP 14:08 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
QC JUANZP1 14:03, action above 1.9910 should see cap at 1.9950. IF not 2.000+ opens up.

slv sam 14:06 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
imho gbp will visit 2.005 today or on Monday!GT

QC JUANZP1 14:05 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I know i just want to know the consensus guys.

Como Perrie 14:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
QC JUANZP1 14:03 GMT May 4, 2007

astrology is not our biz... anything might happen on markets

QC JUANZP1 14:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Hey guys, what's your expected high on gbpusd today?

Como Perrie 14:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:58 GMT May 4, 2007

bonds nightmare

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:00 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 13:55 //
hi - if you don't mind - what timeframe charts do you base your analysis? - I ask this so I can look and relate

slv sam 13:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
how about usdjpy at 119.20/30 today max Monday?!GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, thx amigo. Yep, I see long term 1.50 EUR/USD instead of short term and certainly not this year. 1.42-1.45 this year's close wouldn't surprise me. Will have to be a slow creep down for D index or will shock-effect mkt too much..rather than what I see in the cards as intelligent planning. Also agreed on some traumatic event would shoot it to 1.50 but that's not likely, can't see anything looming on horizon to do that. I don't think terrorism is as much of a worry as say 1 or 2 years ago, to me that was the major risk factor in the formula, now it's waning, fading. I think OTHER CB's policies will affect USD more than anyting internal in USA, other than say an economic boulder falling. Let's face it tho...loans are defaulting in certain risk categories at a higher than normal rate. Inflation is still happening in USA but not in the realestate/building sector and supporting industries. It's like the overall average is all that's seen and not the details. That is OK for the statisticians but the man on the street is affected differently.

London NYAM 13:58 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Valdez// Great points and succinctly put: "If USD is continued to be falsely supported by Asian and Moscovite buyers & is continued to be used in oil deals then eventually it will tank hard."
That is key but still not on the radar for the big players yet. Risk aversion will need to get stoked before we get that theme reappearing. So far this managed decline is working exceedingly well. Perhaps too well belying the underlying fragility of the construct and the risks of staying the course.

madrid mm 13:58 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:54 GMT May 4, 2007

it is more than 2 words , isn t it ? 8-)

London mike 13:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:50 GMT May 4, 2007

I would bet back to 1.9850 LOL

London mike 13:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:50 GMT May 4, 2007

I would bet back to 1.9850 LOL

Haifa VS 13:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin
:) Hope you one of them

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
while EURJPY is atm resilient to dip under 163 line - obser ing the 2 h chart gives signs of slowing - mid term MAs sloping and compressing for a cross
I plan to hold my short from 162.92 for next week..
trendline support seen on 4h coes at 162.50 - the more volatile GBPJPY is already turning for a reversal.. pls excuse me if reiterating this..

Bangkok bkk 13:55 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Since AS reversed position on USD/JPY near 118.50 a month ago, USD/JPY have a chance to test or break above 121 JPY in the near-term.... IMHO.

Como Perrie 13:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
In two words this is the bonds traders nightmare year.

Como Perrie 13:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
FOMC talking they are strangled at current and can't move. So most probably we will have to watch weeks later the minutes. This except surprises o.c.

HK Kevin 13:50 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Stupid but brave traders win today. GBP is targetting 1.9950

Como Perrie 13:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:36 GMT May 4, 2007

well I hardly fix such long term targets. 1.5 seem me way way far from here, but in such complex leveraged markets anything might happen. for now last week eurusd high was some around 1.368 or so. A synthetic trough DM 26 years top similar to that seen on cable above 2 stays around and bit above 1.4 but would not play targets. For cable completion so far talking elliots 2.04 to 2.07 are very plausible, but am not following elliot wave to trade, even if at times do watch there but rarely.

1.5 to be seen imo must be some very big to happen as US budget problems, a Dow collapse or anything strange and unpredicted.

We will see next months and/or if the usdindex drops below 80 clearly forcing most hedge funds around to hedge the usd on lower massively I guess

HK Kevin 13:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:01, please don't name me with master trader like BC, and martin. I am only a small and amateur investor try to earn from some beer money from the market. GT & GL.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:48 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
fxq...I see that also...non event FOMC next wk. If however FOMC DOES "something", this surprise may rock mkt especially if it LOWERS 1/4..USD had better have air tanks full..it's gonna dive. I'm staying flat til it's over just to be safe..if I don't feel really good about a trade I simply don't place it, am not an FX addict. I dam sure don't trade OPPOSITE trend on dailies...only trade w/ trends. That's why I tend to put in trades around the channel lines only...the most risk free way to trade in my book. Middle of the road trades in mid channel to me are to much of a gamble (read waste of time) for our group's risk category, & re: gambling, much more fun in L.V. at skin shows & gaming than at my desk biting my nails if I wanna gamble. ;^> Off the air, cheerz.

Bodrum OEE 13:47 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
London

NYAM yes of course, I will respond to your e-mail address. Forum members who are heading towards here, please be in touch. Best to you all

Bangkok bkk 13:44 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
fwiw... usd/jpy buying interest flow is around +/- 120.00 for today.. let's wait and see. Target 120.65-75

Lahore FM 13:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:37 GMT May 4, 2007
looks likely.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:37 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
nice rising wedge on USDJPY Daily chart - the top rejected at 120.50 - so target is 119 bottom line (and then possible break)

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
XAU's channel is pretty parallel on dailies. To me a very possible break of 700 soon since support was obeyed to the letter this week. R is around 730 from last May, present channel/trend rises above even that. Which in itself isn't a "law" but an observance.

In my overall long term view,USD has to fall to get trade def. under control pushing USA exporters profits & employment up. Personally a €/$ of at least 1.50 is a must or else. If USD is continued to be falsely supported by Asian and Moscovite buyers & is continued to be used in oil deals then eventually it will tank hard. So to me a gradual lowering of USD index has to occur to avoid a train wreck. This is why it doesn't surprise me USD is shorting & will continue to have to short otherwise the largest consumer in the world gets a wicked rivet shaking shimmy. Stagflation, as said below, is CB's worst nightmare...FOMC divided methinks on policy...some hawks, some doves in interim period of indeciveness. Whatever FOMC does next week & in proximal future will be both criticized & heralded by pundits.

UK Alex 13:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:26 GMT May 4, 2007
I wouldn't take too much notice of that if I were you. The orderbook is much deeper than that and even then program trading masks much of what is really going on.

Bangkok bkk 13:29 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Just long USD/JPY today @ 120.05
This pair still bullish in the short term....IMHO

Como Perrie 13:28 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Last real GPD was 1.8 too and with NFPs so low we do have to count some possible negativity lagging onto stats from other indicators seen lately, as those need time to elaborate.

So far most forecasts early the year released were showing US economy to move at 2 or lower the year. The following possible mix of short term rates staying high and mortgages indexes to stay expensive will pose the risk for the US economy to enter many years of a negative growth enviroment. Parituclarly if the subprime starts to pose more risks to the leveraged consumers as well while loosing jobs.

A very bad mix of things, but we will need yet some months to watch more indicators developing from the US economy so to get a very clear picture. So far the risks for markets to anticipate is always high. G/l

RIC fxq 13:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:23

FOMC will do NOTHING! There is no room for a rate cut based on all the recent data and no need to raise just yet.

madrid mm 13:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
so far the orders on the bids and offers on CME e Equivalents are thick

Mtl JP 13:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:21 , not so: fierce deflation is.

London NYAM 13:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum// Thank you friend. Ill see you in Turkey perhaps...GLGT

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, whatcha figure off the record that FOMC's gonna do next week?

Como Perrie 13:21 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 13:19 GMT May 4, 2007

Staglfation is a slowing economy with high rates. The worst thing to deal with for central bankers.

Bodrum OEE 13:20 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
London

NYAM, my dear friend thank you for the kind input. I wish you and all happy week(s) ahead.

Como Perrie 13:20 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
All is slow as of yet so far with some usd bearishness yet present around. Am very curious about today's closings so far, but hard to tell anything at current.

NFP if one reads It the classic way, would have been read as negative stocks, negative dollar, bullish bonds... so far nothing as of now has yet been shown out, and might not... 81.04 usd index remains on watch so far into next week FOMC meeting at least imvho

Vienna GD 13:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:13 GMT May 4, 2007
Stagflations risk are back with today's datas imo

Perrie pls further elaborat on this topic!

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Using trend line support, if U play ¥, I'd place an "autopilot" buy order for CHF/¥ @ around 98.60-70 or so. If you're long term player then it doesn't make much diff where you long it. If you're more of a USD/¥ guy then take Kevin's advice to short now placing a TP order at 10 pips above when you think support line will hit, say around 119.00, however the chart indicates this pair waits a bit testing resistance line (channel) for a week or 2 or 3 before diving for support channel line. So you might wait a bit before placing bets to reduce the "nail biting" factor. Keven, your thoughts on all this? Thx amigo.

Example of what NOT to do: I was busy, out of town a lot, and therefore flat on xau's bounce off support this week dang it..kickin' myself for not putting a buy order on autopilot. I thought I'd get back to the office in time but... Goes to show, ya gotta keep on this or regret it. But I opened up 3 nice coffee account$ to addict more people to my caffine.

Como Perrie 13:16 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Next week FOMC


next Swiss bank meeting is June 16 if remember correctly ..a rise of a 1/4 or more is expected there

USA Zeus 13:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Happy Day!
New ave USD/CAD cost = 1.1051

Como Perrie 13:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Stagflations risk are back with today's datas imo

Como Perrie 13:06 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I'll watch Usd IDX index between 81.45/30 intermediate supports. 81.00 key support lower might hold

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Agreed Kevin, thanks for the headsup. But "big" dips on CHF/¥ daily chart for example, usually more sudden....looks like it's waiting to cycle down a tad then resume north, rather than dipping long term..unless you're talking a short term next week only view for day & swing traders. Just my thoughts...but believe me, you, Martin & bc are "the word" on Yen in my opinion. It's amazing XXX/¥ just keeps soaring and more amazing the almost nil response the world takes to this. Everyone's always on China's case to float Yuan but I don't hear a proportionate amount of static delivered to Tokyo. Oh well. what's "fair" in this world?

Chuck fires up the coffee urn and gets out a case of stale donuts for free java on the house.

St. Annaland Bob 12:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
great weekend to all and happy trades !!!

slv sam 12:55 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
closed my euro long at 80..may be too early but usdcad price action tells me usd will be stronger!!GT

HK Kevin 12:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY hourly support at 108.35. If broken, would it help US/CAD coming up

Makassar Alimin 12:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
locking in +8 pips on previous short cadjpy, will let the canadian data take it from here, later guys....

St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD: closed 75% @ 11053 and s/l moved to 11031 ... means 11pips for 50% are in safe heaven

HK Kevin 12:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
it seems all Yen crosses are coming down from the hill.

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:49 GMT May 4, 2007
massage is the thing to have!gtgl.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
XAU holding steady on daily...obeyed support line from last Oct perfectly this week, bounced off for a (so far & expecting more) gain of $20. I might remind you that AU has gone up vs USD more in proportion than EUR. Means to me there is not only waning interest in USD holding but gaining worldwide interest in AU demand.

Swissy on daily obeying what could be interpreted as a massive double top, falling. I've been in a very long term CHF investment since last year as "protection roll bar" for a USD wreck. I've been in and out of AU for all wins.

Look at the big picture, see the trend, only trade with that trend rather than get run over by the freight train on risk. That's if you are a low adrenaline non nail biting high gain trader. Have a good w/e all....engrossed in coffee biz here..no time to post much 'cept an occasional poker chip flipped on Political Forum.

Chuckster the espresso huckster

HK REVDAX 12:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:45 //The profit on the platter is a bit too dissatisfying and I have thus moved the stops to b/e and let nature take its own course.

Out for a massage...gl

St. Annaland Bob 12:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
it's 13:31 BST

St. Annaland Bob 12:45 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
revdax ... the candle of 14:31 tells it all ... let's see for where it will break from this candle/range

USA Zeus 12:42 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:15 GMT May 4, 2007

"Details such as below or at consensus # may see a spike then decisions made based on revisions and key segments before a direction is determined."

Feel indicator high correlation.

Lahore FM 12:42 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
somewhat muted response but usd selloff can pick up.

London NYAM 12:42 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Kap//Hard to say just yet until things get settled. these initial reactions are so bogus. Still, it would seem to me that the dollar yen will be hurt as it has been bis up more signoificantly than the other majors.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
NYAM // looking at 2 h charts the reversals in those crosses seem to be smoothly in process - now after the data is thru - the way is more clear I guess..

HK Kevin 12:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Beware of 2-way market hunters.

Perth Randall El 12:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
==========
1.13 is coming

hk revdax 12:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
120.50-70 of $/JY appears highly improbable....but the mkt can do anything, of course.

calcutta dghoshhazra 12:37 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
nfp release...does not it dollar negative?

Makassar Alimin 12:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
we may see Dr. Q's usdcad 1.09xx after canadian data later on

USA Zeus 12:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bought more USD/CAD 1.1037

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
http://iveypmi.uwo.ca/english/historic_data.htm

pittsburgh pa 12:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any thoughts on where the Eur/Usd will end up at the end of the day?

USA Zeus 12:33 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bought USD/CAD 1.1043 (offer rate of course)

USA Zeus 12:33 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bought USD/CAD 1.1043

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:31 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
NFP +88

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:29 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
as I observed before this ticking higher is an indication of the data.. possibly the usdjpy with so compressed range will react more than the other majors - just an idea..

GVI john 12:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Also you can get the data very cheaply from AFX news. Contact [email protected] for details

Lahore FM 12:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index(APR) 14:00 GMT
forecast57.3 --previous 67.3

GVI john 12:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
VS- See G-V "quicklinks" for links to key government/central bank data

Haifa VS 12:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
What is the first site publishing this data?

http://www.bls.gov/ces/ ?

UK Alex 12:15 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
CME-ISE derivatives traders lower their forecast for April payrolls again, now expecting an increase of 80,700 jobs. Payrolls report to be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires look for an increase of 110,000 jobs.

hk revdax 12:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
I think $/CAD is sliding on its bud into next Monday...lol

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
DJ - Derivatives traders see 80 700 payrolls

pittsburgh pa 12:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any thought on the NFP thins morning and how it will effect the Eur/Usd?


St. Annaland Bob 12:08 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD long from 11042 is good for something small, sweet and for sure very quick

Halifax CB 12:08 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
If any one is interested in the cleaned up version of the Kalman filter software, I've put it up HERE. There's 3 files you will need, the instructions are in GRFKalman.mq4 For those that just want the algorithm, see "GRFKalman.txt". Those that want to build their own (it's not hard) check out Wikipedia for "Kalman Filter". If you give it a try, feel free to send feedback, it helps.

Halifax CB 12:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Best wishes Zeus, could be a fun morning..

USA Zeus 12:00 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:47 GMT May 4, 2007
Am I in? LOL I was mistaken earlier for the RBC!
j/k- relax everyone (you know who you are)

Am in because this is a position- not intended as a trade (although will skim some cream off the top as a trade to take the heat off.)

All transactions have been posted. Nothing new last couple of days as this has been as active as a dead bird's EKG chart. Was able to take the heat off for some nice gains earlier and am ready to add blocks and/or mortar if I can on a spike lower.

GL GT!

Halifax CB 11:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
AFAICS, USDCAD is just gluing itself to the trend...Ivey and NFP might change that of course...

tokyo ginko 11:53 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad target 1.1350 medium term..ready for rocket....? GT all TGIF from tokyo!!

Makassar Alimin 11:51 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
interesting usdcad at the moment, is this indication of predetermined action again like what we have seen so many times in the past prior to data release?

hk ab 11:49 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
new hrly dlr/cad low

hk ab 11:47 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
zeus, are you in any dlrcad long at the moment?

Makassar Alimin 11:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
short small cadjpy 108.88

USA Zeus 11:44 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:24 GMT May 4, 2007

CB- Come on! What is this talk? It is all in understanding the math! LOL
Suit up- it's game day. Championship is on the line! Lots of trading to do here. Stick to your guns and let the math guide your actions- discipline, discipline, discipline.

Have a great day and hope you crush it! :-)

GVI john 11:43 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 11:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3554	120.43	1.2164	1.9878	1.1071	0.8240	163.23
High	1.3621	120.47	1.2172	1.9946	1.1092	0.8261	163.60
Low	1.3547	119.97	1.2094	1.9855	1.1055	0.8223	163.13
05/03/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/03/2007					
5 day 	1.3612	119.89	1.2116	1.9946	1.1101	0.8279	163.17
10 day	1.3610	119.37	1.2090	1.9971	1.1153	0.8297	162.45
20 day 	1.3549	119.28	1.2120	1.9906	1.1267	0.8290	161.55
50 day 	1.3375	118.36	1.2160	1.9683	1.1505	0.8091	158.30
100 day	1.3209	119.25	1.2270	1.9634	1.1608	0.7959	157.49
200 day	1.3015	118.19	1.2324	1.9320	1.1443	0.7801	153.83
							

Makassar Alimin 11:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:55 GMT May 4, 2007

Hi Bob, you forget that magic word to trigger the avalanche ;) cheers, good trades

Halifax CB 11:24 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
My $CAD chart for the day Chart
Because of the hype surrounding the NFP and Ivey numbers, I'm looking to play this one by ear/eye, and not stick to the chart points too closely Trend analysis is not valid in the presence of large jumps, and it's easy to forget when things are trending strongly that this pair can easily jump 200 pips in the wrong direction very quickly. It's not a day to be depending on SL's and entry/exit points to save one's bacon....FWIW, these are not trade recommendations; see the more experienced/qualified on the other side, or experts like Dr. Q.

London NYAM 11:18 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// Yes figures in that range will chop heads and wont bother taking any names. One of the reasons im taking a cross this week rather than an outright dollar position. GT Zeuster.

London NYAM 11:16 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:12 GMT May 4, 2007//
Thanks Bob. That sounds like a very original (and possibly time-consuming) system. I particularly like your early profit booking...also relatively novel and probably effective. GT

USA Zeus 11:15 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:09 GMT May 4, 2007
From an analyst i get: The NFP will likely spawn a breakout in the USD however only the details of the report will detrmine the direction.

Details such as below or at consensus # may see a spike then decisions made based on revisions and key segments before a direction is determined. A #150-170k+ will see USD shorts meet their maker all day long.

GT!

madrid mm 11:14 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
* Reuters Receives Takeover Approach From Unidentified Bidder; Shares Surge
* Yahoo Shares Jump on N.Y. Post Report That Microsoft Seeks Takeover Talks

blmbrg

calcutta dghoshhazra 11:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
but jobless improved......dont u think there is a possibilities of a higher than expected NFP DATA???

St. Annaland Bob 11:12 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:04 GMT May 4, 2007

the truth always hide between all the prices the boys of the big banks publish ... got this rookie system to calculate a mix of publications with each publisher getting another weight in the total mix ... something completely crazy but works for me ... by the way, I always book something when market goes my way after the entry to allow tolerance for market's craziness ... sorry it took so long post

HK REVDAX 11:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:55 //Tks. I am already short a bit of $/JY and will short more when it gets to your level. But I don't think I have to wait until that 12050-70 window to arrive.

UK Alex 11:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:56 GMT May 4, 2007
If we get a good print, $/yen 122.00 is back on the radar.

London NYAM 11:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
From an analyst i get: The NFP will likely spawn a breakout in the USD however only the details of the report will detrmine the direction. The initial news, they say, may cause a flurry of buying from short term specs, as they see the STS with a bullish USD bias. MT and LT players are likely loooking at opportunities to sell USD in order to follow the global shift away from dollar allocations (this includes CBs) This is especially true for, but not isolated to, the EUR.

calcutta dghoshhazra 11:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
the nfp data?????any possibility of a reverse result...more than 120k?

London NYAM 11:04 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 06:31 GMT May 2, 2007
USDJPY shorts between 12030-12050 with s/l bit above 12070 has the chance to pay really great//

Noted your earlier post. Im curious as to how you arrived at the 12070. Are you in a position to share? Only ask because i got this after you from a fib extension off of a wave created after your post.

calcutta dghoshhazra 11:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
nonfirm pay rolls...wot do u feel guys? hw it wll effect bullions? will the forecast match?

Global-View Research 10:58 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:

MEellon FX Daily

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
yesterday there was CME derivatives estimate for 88k nfp..
anyone has an update?

St. Annaland Bob 10:55 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 10:52 GMT May 4, 2007

meaning that for reversal with USDJPY we need some pips up from the current price, something between 12050-12080 will act as the reversal point and avalanche according to my radar ... happy trades

UK Alex 10:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
UBS to close hedge fund unit as profit slides 7%

hk revdax 10:52 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:47//"Must make the job" for today? Sounds like predetermination to me. Will see...gt

calcutta dghoshhazra 10:48 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
nonfirm pay rolls...wot do u feel guys? hw it wll effect bullions? will the forecast match?

St. Annaland Bob 10:47 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 10:41 GMT May 4, 2007

marginal error with that pair is much more costly than USDHKD ;) ... but 12070 must make the job for today

hk revdax 10:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
$/JY has already topped out. Anyone agrees?

London NYAM 10:32 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY//Unfortunately for my position this appears to be preparing for yet another extension to yet another relative high before finally reversing. If that occurs after the figures it may have implications about the initial interpretation of the figures out. If it happens before the figures it could represent a nervousness about the numbers and should be rather muted. Pattern still indicated on a larger scale we should see a substantial sell off. Upside should be capped between 120.70 and 120.85.

Atlanta South 10:28 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Closed out all short E/$ & $/CAD positions & will be flat for
today. Have a great weekend everyone & good trades as well.

UK Alex 10:27 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
US APRIL NON-FARM PAYROLLS: previous 180,000; Reuters consensus forecast 100,000 (1330BST)

Bandung Frankie 10:27 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Hallo guys ..... what up whit running of all curency now ....
is that waitting for nonfarm ?
what do you all think about nonfarm , it's good or bad ?
i have target for cable 1.9750 .... is that posible ...??
oke guys ... thank you for all .... GL / GT

London NYAM 10:26 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY// Signals improving for my sell order although this has proven to be a WOFT in terms of holding period so far. Still we have a trend line break on the 4hrly with a 3 touch strength implying a decent trend line.
4 May 9:00, 27 Apr 5:00, 2 May 5:00.
Trend line now offers resistance at 239.27

St. Annaland Bob 10:12 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 10:07 GMT May 4, 2007

happy day in sunny cycle here! (ends coming Monday) ... only queen will do fine with your handle/nick ... your mentioned 13000-13700 for next three months fits to all as correction with mega EUR bull trend cycle ... make sure greed does not kill ... by the way, not to bother my positions I will leave for two weeks as first step starting after the US data of today ... happy trades & great weekend

ny platt 10:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
the Euro and Cable failed to follow through after breaching breakout points below, not once but thrice, so what does that tells you??? Buy Euro and Cable like crazy at present rates!!!

London NYAM 10:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:08 GMT May 3, 2007
Bodrum, hi// Yes I would say the next leg i mentioned yesterday should be in play now to below 19870 towards 19840-50 the thing is will it break the key level at 19817?

GBP hit low at 19840 so far. Critical supports at 19828 and 19817 still comfortably intact. Look for a consolidation from these lows back up to 1.9929 with risks to 1,9984. If 2.00 breaks the liklihoof of the end of sideways consolidation increases dramatically infavour of a return to test the highs. Much of this will depend of course on the figures today.

EU theEUROqueen 10:07 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Happy sunny friday BOb!

tell ur friends from china to stop selling the euro..(please) or i will be forced to change my handle to the usd queen..

Happ trade and a lots of pips wish u

Global-View 09:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
For those who have not subscribed to our real-time AFX News feed, check out Global-View Jay 00:35 GMT May 4, 2007 - the update speaks for itself as to the value of this news feed. For more information on our special offers, send us an EMAIL

Syd 09:39 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
The rand weakened marginally in mid morning trade on the back of remarks by South African reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni on inflationary pressures that dealers say create a bit of uncertainty in the market. Mboweni said persistently high and rising oil prices could cause higher inflationary expectations to become more entrenched, thus increasing the probability of a further tightening of monetary policy. USD/ZAR at 7.0053 after closing at 6.9550 on Thursday. "We've got some big figures (jobless data) out of the US this afternoon which could push the euro either way and that could push the rand as well," a trader adds.

manchester st 09:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:14 GMT May 4, 2007

A SHEPHERD....lol

slv sam 09:22 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin 09:18 /
my pleasure!

manchester st 09:22 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:14 GMT May 4, 2007
mmm....that is where the joke of "what do you call a new zealander with a lot of girlfriends?..

slv sam 09:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
tks!
I believe medium and long term reversal for the euro already started! look for 1.34...1.31...1.29 gradually!GT

Plovidv Gotin 09:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 08:56 GMT May 4, 2007
As long as E/$ is above 1.3530, possibly.

Lahore FM 09:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 08:56 GMT May 4, 2007
likely!

slv sam 08:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
anybody believes eur will test 1.3660 today?!GT

Bangladesh Wenel 08:50 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Hello Guys,
I sold more EUR/USD at 1,3566 ( 1,3645 )S/L changed to 1,3645 and T/P 1,3400-50.GL and GT

Syd 08:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro-zone services sector purchasing managers index fell to 57.0 in April from 57.4 in March. DJN forecast 57.6.

DALLAS GEP 08:24 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
120.69

NY tim 08:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP 08:01 GMT May 4, 2007

any stop for this pos - TIA

Syd 08:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Friday Could Be A Key Day For Cable -HBoS
Friday could turn out to be a key day for cable. HBoS says the rate has found support at 1.9850 (Dec '06 high) but a break here, and then 1.9822 (early April high) would be extremely bearish. Key risk, says the bank, comes from payrolls (1230 GMT), where HBoS sees upside risk in the report.

madrid mm 08:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
fwiw flip flop moves....people are sharpening their knives and testing each other nerves 8-)

Today should be a great Trade The news day !!! 8-)

Gen dk 08:15 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 08:14 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 08:11 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland 05:55 GMT May 4, 2007

Bob hello. I do have AFX , thank you. Good day and weekend to you.

On the Dow Jones Newswires story about Turkey, a few words I would like to put forward if I may (Turkey story is correlated with foreign exchange markets in general and can have a specific impact on Japanese Yen and or United States Dollars scene).

Atilla Yesilada, analyst quoted in the story, has a liberal background rooted in mid 1980's when Turkey opened up to international arena. Many tired with almost closed doors policy and terror of 1970's felt warm towards policies of Turgut Ozal, prime minister (president later). That included myself.

A liberal on economy and social affairs amid a religious background Ozal era is marked with economic expansion. At the cost of corruption, abuse of legislation and regulation, that is as I found out along the way (when I parted ways with the stream).

Yesilada in current affairs represents those puzzled between economic prospects and a threat to society. Accordingly a comment of reaction from him (viewed an eccentric as well), against those who oppose ruling (Muslim democrats) AKP attitude thus create relative (in)stability does hardly come surprising.

Regardless if the pen here be granted with a slightest bit of a farsight on international affairs of quality and quantity or not, I would like to beg to differ.

I accept that the road ahead is not flat. Possibly as a result an overtime in constitutional court is a need to determine who prevails. Regardless the winner is already there following this (as I called it) "polarization and clarification of sides" period: secular first and democrat later Turkey.

All political parties except AKP seems to see it. Accepting it for the latter may be a bit more difficult, yet (unconfirmed) signals are there that it may in fact be happening (e.g. parliament head Bulent Arinc of AKP, a radical, is increasingly isolated within the party).

I suspect international markets regard the process a healthier one for Turkey (more to the viewpoint of the environment here adequate of a reason to use it as an excuse not start a JPY strengthening). This compares to leaving the country at the hands of a party of unfounded majority (earned by 30% of the public vote that included reactionary voters of around 10-20%). No one would care about the rest of Turkish population should AKP did not have a controversial past in radical Islam leading opponents to think that the party has a latent habit to dictate as demonstrated in the presidential election process. (when AKP refused calls to find a common candidate of majority of public and insisted on one that caused a public outcry).

World audience possibly has more empathy to what is in the making than some think, at this (st)age, knowing what is at stake.

Regards

Perth Randall El 08:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
========
Buy now b4 data. If decline after data buy again for big reversal.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
EZ PMI data is coming slightly below expected..

DALLAS GEP 08:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Took some more usd/jpy short...targeting 119.40

St. Annaland Bob 08:00 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
ab, my radar suggests USDCAD to test 11040 today

Gen dk 07:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 07:37 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : It is very weak and EUR/USD is feeling the pressure.

Syd 07:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Swiss Franc May Lose Attraction For Carry Trade


By Nicholas Hastings

A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Swiss franc may well become more immune to carry trades.

Although an unexpected rise in inflationary pressure in Switzerland last month may prove short-lived, fears are that the Swiss National Bank will respond to the data with as much a 50-basis-point hike in rates next month and lend the franc support. Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz this week warned that the size of carry trades could hamper the franc's cross with currencies such as the euro and that authorities are carefully monitoring developments on that front.

Certainly recent economic data suggest that the Swiss economy is robust enough to weather a further tightening in rates.



Sofia Kaprikorn 07:34 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Read the Dj - Omi reiterates J economy is in good shape and fx levels are to be set by market..+ China's sppey Eco growth welcome..

St. Annaland Bob 07:30 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
happy day ... own impression tells that today we experience global strike of lifeguards along the FX seas ... from here is the extreme of being on your own when crazy gets craziest ... happy and safe trades

Syd 07:04 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Could Drop To 0.8120 Before US Payrolls

hk ab 07:01 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
the cad looks very tad and I think a 4th attempt to the downside together with the M&A strength will make 1.09xx area exposed.

madrid mm 06:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

RBA Monetary Policy Statement: RBA lowers the 2007 underlying inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.75%, suggesting reduced risk of a rate hike next few months. Sees headline falling below 2% in mid 2007. Sees underlying inflation between 2.5-3.0% in 2008 andH1 2009. Decline in underlying inflation faster than expected, and could be lower than 2.5% in 2007. Unlikely inflation will continue to fall in longer term. Risks to inflation forecasts broadly balanced.

RBA: AUD strength could add to downward pressure on inflation in coming quarters. Sees annual non farm GDP at 3.25-3.5%, from 3.25%.

Australia March trade deficit widens to -AUD1,622m, vs mkt expectation of -AUD900m as exports fall -4%m/m, imports +1.%m/m.

ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda says greater FX flexibility is in interest of China's economy. China moving toward more FX flexibility and trend should continue.

Dow Jones reported that 3 U.S. House committees will hold an unusual joint hearing to examine currency manipulation Wednesday, which will focus on whether and to what extent the CNY and JPY are undervalued as a result of their governments' intervention in the FX markets. The hearing will examine whether US Government should take any action to address FX manipulation.

UK Times Voters gave PM Tony Blair a bruising farewell and Chan Gordon Brown a worrying inheritance early today as Labour suffered losses in elections in England, Scotland and Wales.

FT: Barclays’ hopes of buying ABN Amro suffered a blow Thursday night when a commercial court in Amsterdam blocked the Dutch lender’s $21bn sale of its US subsidiary to Bank of America. The ruling is a victory for shareholders who had challenged the sale because it undermined a rival bid for ABN Amro by a trio of European banks led by Royal Bank of Scotland.

Focus all on AUD today as the closely watched RBA MPS takes center stage for clues to RBA bias and the monetary policy path ahead. Markets remain thin with Japan still away on Golden Week and China away on Labour Day holidays.

AUD/USD "pre-empted" RBA MPS, as funds, momentum players sold it before the release through 0.8220 stops to 0.8210, from NY close of 0.8238. Aussie then fell through 0.8200 on the double whammy of a "more dovish" RBA and a wider than expected trade gap of AUD1.622bln, hitting stoploss on the way down as RBA is seen subtly shifting from a more hawkish to a more neutral bias and signalling Cash Rate will pause at 6.25%.

Selling pressure on AUD/USD, AUD/Crosses continue, and pushing AUD to 3-week lows 0.8170.AUD/JPY under pressure, hitting 10-day lows of 98.45 from 99.00-10, with AUD/JPY sales possibly triggering more unwinding of short JPY carry trades and putting pressure on Cross/JPY. More downside seen.

AUD/JPY selling seen putting pressure on JPY carry trades and Cross/JPY, with EUR/JPY falling to day lows of 162.80 from NY close of 163.20, and NZD/JPY fallig to lows of 88.40 from 88.65 as funds, momentum players seen unwinding some long carry trade positions.

USD/JPY capped ahead of 120.50 option triggers, and AUD/JPY, Cross/JPY sales, after hitting 2-month highs of 120.48 in NY.

EUR/USD hit day lows of 1.3537 as some stops hit, but still talks of Sovereign, East, Europeans, Russian on the bids. EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD still under pressure after recent series of firm US data, eye US payrolls tonight, any stronger than 120K to see more USD buying.

Nikkei and JGBs closed for Japan Golden Week holidays.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.27/120.46, EUR/USD 1.3533/1.3557, GBP/USD 1.9851/1.9881, USD/CHF 1.2152/1.2166, AUD/USD 0.8170/0.8236, NZD/USD 0.7335/0.7364.

madrid mm 06:33 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi,

Asean+3 To Agree On Forex Reserves Pooling System - Source
KYOTO, Japan -(Dow Jones)- Finance Ministers from Japan, China, South Korea and countries belonging to the Association of South East Asian Nations are set to agree Saturday that they will establish a multilateral pool of foreign-exchange reserves, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Click here

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 06:09 //
good morning,
I have asked u before about this bull trap warning - do you observe some specific price pattern or it is ur trading experience that gives u an indication about such occurrences?
tnx!

tokyo ginko 06:09 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
beware of eur bull trap, GT all

HK REVDAX 06:06 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
OC_CO 05:57 //i am long $/CAD with a stop at 1.1064 but you may want to be a bit more generous at 1.1059.

OC_CO 05:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
sofia:

if you said usd/cad is a long ... where is your stop ?

St. Annaland Bob 05:55 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE -- the AFX feed of this site proved to be the very best around data releases and interim FX markets data, if your trading style requires news feed then it will great to note that there is no better than the AFX service this site offers ... happy trades!

Bodrum OEE 05:38 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd, thank you

Syd 05:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 05:10 GMT no dj

Bodrum OEE 05:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:13 GMT May 4, 2007


Morning, is your source afx?

Sofia mik 05:04 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
add cad /yen 109.2- 105,5o

Sofia mik 04:56 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 04:16
imho, my indicators show broad range on xxx/cad crosses in next 3-4weeks:.
ud/cad 1.11 -15;gbp/cad 2.17-2.25;
eurocad 1.48-1.52; audcad 0.91-0.88;nzdcad 0.82/0.77
glgt to all

St. Annaland Bob 04:48 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   

Drama in house of FX // by PipThePimp (04-MAY-2007)

sea of words, oceans of annalists, great seas of future tellers and so on ... and one simple fact, even very very simple fact about EURUSD if it will not manage to close this week above 1.3700 censored

Prague viktor 04:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
the market is buying the usd hmmm..is it a profit taking ?or a new trend? as OMIL saying it will be a bloody friday

Perth Randall El 04:16 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 01:46 GMT May 4, 2007

What do you mean?

USA Zeus 03:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 03:08 GMT May 4, 2007
Sorry to hear about flipper- hope all is well.
Thx for the CAD details.

jkt-aye 03:02 GMT May 4, 2007
TY!

GL! GT!

Syd 03:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Rate Hike Odds Shorten Following RBA Statement
Australian money market signals the odds of rate hike at RBA's next rate-setting meeting shorten to almost zero after RBA's quarterly statement signals shift to rates-on-hold stance, saying core inflation headed down to 2.5% "or lower" in 2007; Credit Suisse Implied Monetary Policy Index finds Australian money market pricing 2% chance of 25 bps rate hike at RBA's next policy-setting meeting June 6, down from 6% chance Thursday

Melbourne Qindex 03:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the pattern of my weekly cycle charts the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.0051 and 1.1134. The weekly cycle lower limit is defined at 1.0968 . My daily cycle analysis indicates that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below [1.1022]. The downside targeting points are 1.0960 and 1.0968.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0915 - 1.0933* - 1.0942 - 1.0955 // 1.0968* - 1.0986 - 1.0995 - 1.1004* - [1.1022] - 1.1040* - 1.1048 - 1.1057 - 1.1075* // 1.1088 - 1.1102 - 1.1111* - 1.1128 ...

Syd 03:24 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Rents Surge For Tokyo's Existing Offices, Up For 2nd Straight Yr
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Rents for existing office space in Tokyo rose at the highest rate since 1993 for the first half, reflecting a tightening market due to corporate expansion fueled by a strong economy.

USA BAY 03:23 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
For those who use SSI indicators, hope this helps

Currency Rate Ratio %long Signal
EURUSD 1.3607 -2.68 27% Bullish
GBPUSD 1.9923 -1.53 40% Bullish
USDJPY 120.06 -1.64 38% Bullish
USDCHF 1.2101 3.23 76% Bearish
USDCAD 1.1076 5.52 85% Bearish

Syd 03:19 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Australian money market pricing diminished risk of 25 bps rate hike by end of 2007 after RBA's statement signals shift to rates-on-hold stance, saying core inflation headed down to 2.5% "or lower" in 2007; July 30-day interbank futures currently signal 28% chance of 25 bps rate hike by end of 2007, down from 50% chance yesterday; "It's looking pretty clear the RBA has no intention of doing anything for the next six months," says Sally Auld, senior interest rate strategist at ANZ Bank.

Halifax CB 03:07 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
RE the M&A, IFR had it on just before 19:00 GMT.

jkt-aye 03:02 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Zeus ... i hear it too, ard 14 bln.
maybe BAY have better source.

Halifax CB 02:57 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:33 GMT May 4, 2007
Yes, I saw that. I'll have to revisit it, it was a good chart to think about. What I'd really like to figure out is if there's a correlation lag, which could then be exploitable...Right now I still don't see (for example) any real slowing of USDCAD, though the Aussie downturn has been in the works for a little while now. Whether it stcks or not remains to be seen; but it sure looks like a year ago.

USA Zeus 02:41 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:17 GMT May 3, 2007
More M&A, fuels cad gains

Greetings BAY. Can you please elaborate on this? TIA

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:33 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 01:03 GMT May 4, 2007 || Makes me wonder if a case can be made for a shorter term correlation?

See:
Dublin Flip 18:05 GMT April 30, 2007
FWIW Cad and Aussie versus USD 20 year chart

Melbourne Qindex 02:29 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market has penetrated the lower barrier at 1.5066 // 1.5125. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the lower limit of the daily cycle reference at 1.5071. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the lower limit of the 3-day cycle reference at 1.4984. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the odds are fairly high that the market will trade in the extreme level at 1.4811 - 1.4968. My daily cycle analysis indicates that the downside targeting levels are 1.4923 and 1.4944.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4919 - 1.4944* - 1.4956 - 1.4974 // 1.4993* - 1.5018 - 1.5030 - 1.5042* - [1.5067] - 1.5092* - 1.5104 - 1.5117 - 1.5141* // 1.5160 - 1.5178 - 1.5191* - 1.5215 ...

Halifax CB 02:28 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Eurusd has also slid beneath it's support at 1.3540...

Syd 01:54 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Slides Below 0.8200 On RBA, Trader

AUD/USD falls after Australia trade deficit for March comes in at A$1.62 billion, exceeding A$975 million average forecast, and RBA signals shift to rates on hold, saying core inflation headed down to 2.5% "or lower" in 2007. AUD/USD slips under 0.8200, last at 0.8196 from 0.8226 prior to reports. Support tipped at 0.8160, previous low in April.

Sofia mik 01:46 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 01:32 GMT May 4, 2007
usd.cad
========
1.13 is coming

---------------------
1520 is coming

Syd 01:40 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
RBA Signals Rates On Hold; Core CPI To Fall

Australia's seasonally adjusted balance on trade in goods and services widened to a deficit of A$1.62 billion in March from a deficit of A$728 million in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday.

The figure is wider than analysts' expectations of a deficit of A$975 million.

Australia recorded a deficit of A$1.24 billion in the year-earlier period.




Syd 01:36 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Australia's RBA: Underlying Inflation In 07 Likely 2.5%
Underlying Rate May Come In Little Below Forecast
CPI To Fall Below 2% During Next Couple Of Qtrs
Long-Term Decline In Inflation Unlikely
Upward Inflation Pressure Still Likely Over Time
Inflation Decline From Peak Faster Than Expected
Benign Inflation Lowers Start Point For Any Pickup
Mildly Restrictive Policy Leaves Time To Respond
Time To Respond To Any Higher Medium-Term Inflation
Appreciable Policy Tightening Already Made In 06
Board To Continue To Monitor Developments
Expects Limited Spare Capacity In Australian Econ
Australia Econ Picked Up Late 06, Strengthened 07
Forex Rise May Apply Modest Downward Price Pressure
No Significant Effect On CPI Expected From Drought
RBA: Underlying Inflation In 07 Likely 2.5%

Perth Randall El 01:32 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
========
1.13 is coming

Syd 01:31 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Australia Mar Trade Deficit A$1.62B Vs A$975M Consensus
Australia Mar Exports -4.0%, Imports +1.0%

Halifax CB 01:25 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Audusaurus might be loosing its biscuits...only the 1.30's GMT will tell...Chart

Halifax CB 01:03 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Aud/USD might be setting up for it's almost annual springtime trip down under...

Syd 00:59 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
04 May 2007 01:55 BST DJ MARKET TALK: Further USD Weakness May Not Be Justified - UBS

USD at weakest levels since end-2004 amid strength in Europe, weakness in U.S. housing, strong reserve diversification, high oil prices, trade frictions, continued investments by U.S. investors in overseas markets, says UBS' Mansoor Mohi-uddin. "So can the dollar recover as it did after the fourth quarter of 2004? The greenback certainly looks oversold at current levels. But there are clear differences between now and then. In order for the dollar to rally, diversification activity needs to slow and risk aversion rise so the dollar can benefit from repatriation flows back into America." Foreign reserves of China, Russia and India have increased sharply last few months; still, are reasons to expect pace of this to slow as inflows to China (unwinding of one off FX swaps) and Russia (asset auction sales) return to more normal historic levels. Will mean less USD selling by central banks. "There are very different factors to what caused the dollar to rebound after (4Q04) but we remain skeptical that further dollar weakness is justified from current levels."

Global-View Jay 00:35 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
From AFX (we offer a great deal for this excellent live news service. If you are interested, send us an EMAIL

"...Meanwhile, dealers said Australian dollar traders are awaiting the 11:30 am release, Sydney time, of the Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly outlook for monetary policy.

NAB Capital strategists said there is some anticipation that the central bank will downgrade its near-term inflation forecasts following the low consumer price inflation outcome in the March quarter.

"The RBA will likely stick with their view that underlying inflation will remain between 2.5-3.0 pct in 2008 and highlight the prospect that the risk to the cash rate is still on the upside, thus maintaining their mild tightening bias," they added..."

UK Alex 00:32 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
CME-ISE derivatives traders see April non-farm payrolls up 88,900, about the same result from the auction conducted this morning. The last of five auctions will be Friday morning, prior to the release of the monthly employment report, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT

Syd 00:13 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   
ANKARA, Turkey -- Turkey's Parliament appears to have defused the country's weeklong political crisis by bringing general elections forward to July 22, four months earlier than planned. But the controversy over the nomination of a new president inflamed a rift at the heart of Turkish politics and society that could widen dangerously as polling day approaches. The upheaval, which at one point raised fears of a military coup, has exposed deep divisions between two groups locked in a battle for Turkey's soul -- a fiercely secularist establishment and an urban class with rural, traditional roots that is laying down its claim to power. Now, that fissure looks set to dominate the election campaign, potentially endangering Turkey's hard-won economic stability. "We would have preferred the campaign to be about structural reforms, the Turkish lira and Turkey's relations with the EU," said Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst with Global Source/Turkey. "Now the main focus will be the secular-religious clash and the role of the army." The political turmoil marked the biggest confrontation yet between an old-guard elite that controls Turkey's security services, courts and bureaucracy, and the AK Party, a group with roots in political Islam that has governed the country since sweeping to power in elections in 2002. How the conflict plays out will have huge implications for Turkey's economic performance, its prospects for joining the European Union and the larger clash between Islamists and secular forces across the Middle East and Asia.

Syd 00:10 GMT May 4, 2007 Reply   

A Royal Win In France Could Dent EUR - CMC Mkts
French presidential run-off Sunday may impact EUR, says CMC Markets' Ashraf Laidi; "both candidates have openly spoken in favor of weakening the euro and taking greater political control from the ECB. Even the market-friendly Sarkozy has complained about the strength of the euro, which he said strained exports and further widened the nation's trade deficit." With Royal's policies also seen in favor of higher taxes, more state interventionism, "the surprise effect of her victory would not only remove the center right incumbent government but also trigger a negative euro reaction." Presidential debate deemed a draw by most political analysts but adds internet polls show 53% found Sarkozy more convincing, vs Royal's 31%; "a combination of an upside surprise in U.S. payrolls on Friday followed by a Royal victory could drive the euro toward 1.34" vs USD, especially as markets would reduce odds of Fed easing later this year


 




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