Forex Forum Archive for 05/06/2007

Syd 23:58 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Statistics New Zealand said ordinary-time salary and wage rates in the private sector, measured by its labor cost index, or LCI, 0.7% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, and 3% from the same period the previous year.

The outcome undershot a median expectation of a 0.9% quarterly rise and a 3.3% annual rise from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 13 market economists. In the fourth quarter, the wages rose a revised 0.9% on the quarter and 3.1% on the year.

The government agency said that salary and wage rates, including overtime, for professionals rose 3.1% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier, compared with a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter.

Atlanta South 23:45 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Rick fxq
23:21//That is one reason I decided to close all postions @ the end of last week as it is just to uncertain. Tks again for
the reminder & your views. GT

Syd 23:44 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Security Regulator Refuses Qantas Bid Extension

Syd 23:41 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Apr Construction Performance Index Falls

Australia's construction sector recorded slower growth in April with AiGroup Housing Industry Association performance index down 3.2 points on-month in April to 47.9, below 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction. April's fall follows increases in previous 2 months, comes after 3 interest rate hikes in 2006. Improvement in house building sector, which expanded for 1st time since September 2006, outweighed by weakness in other sectors, slower growth in engineering construction.

RIC fxq 23:21 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 23:07 GMT

exactly my point in the heads up - not a "trustworthy" day possibly. :)

Atlanta South 23:07 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Rick fxq
Ref 22:34/ That is most kind of you to point that out, but I
have seen times that low volume or liquidty = some nice moves. That is why I am on the side waiting to see what happens & trade accordingly. Tks for the heads up as it is
most appreciated & your views are as well. Gt

RIC fxq 22:34 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 22:29 GMT

Gentlemen:

Monday is a bank holiday in the UK, ergo - Ldn FX markets will be closed or staffed with jr. staff and mkts & volume can be expected to much thinner than the norm.

Syd 22:33 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
NZ's Minister for Economic Development Trevor Mallard reiterates government desire to find way of cooling housing market, while leaving exporters that are suffering from strong NZD unscathed, in interview with Dow Jones Newswires; Mallard says high NZD is "clearly causing some damage to exporters" outside dairy sector, with exporters paying price for increasing house prices; "There are questions as to whether we can find other mechanisms to focus in on that," Mallard said, adding high proportion of fixed-rate mortgages part of problem, while tax system currently means there's "not a lot of downside to property investment." Comments add to Finance Minister Michael Cullen's comments last week that parliamentary committe should look at alternatives to interest-rate rises to curb domestic inflation.

Atlanta South 22:29 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed
22:13// I wish you the best on that & the timing fits what I am seeing as well. By NY open things could be rocking. For
now I''ll focus on the $/CAD as I have been on the short side
since 1510 zone. Its got to end sometime & when it does it
could rocket north. We'll see. GT

NY Ed 22:13 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South...my read is as soon as Eur wakes up, in about 10 hours we should see some eur/usd long action, due to the election... maybe 3650 tomorrow, I am long @ 3595 and holding.. I'll keep in touch GT

Atlanta South 21:55 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
NY ED
Ref 21:37// Not bullish or bearish, but just try to trade the signals I get. Ref E/$ it seems the 3650 could be seen this
wk & maybe even near term, but my method is somewhat flat
@ the moment on this pair. Maybe have a better idea over
the next several hrs. GT

Sydney ACC 21:39 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
The Qantas takeover has turned into a dog's dinner after Heyman Investments, a US hedge fund, tendered 50% of its stock after the 7:00 pm deadline.
In addition it has been revelaed over the weekend that foreign shraeholders have exceeded the 49% limit stiplulated in the Qantas Sale Act.
Evidently Qantas management did not administer the restriction recently. In order to ensure that the terms of the acxt are compiled with 16% of the foreign held equity will have to be sold on a last in first out basis. Given that the company was valued at AUD 11 billion, we are looking at foriegners being required to sell between AUD 1.65 billion and AUD 2 billion of stock.
Your guess is as good as mine whether the currency exposure was hedged.

NY Ed 21:37 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi Atlanta, any feelings on eur/usd ?? or are you just bearish USD accross the , btw I agree.
GT GL

Atlanta South 21:32 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Although it is early in the week I am getting a short signal @ this time on $/CAD. Had considered getting long this pair, but for now will stand aside & monitor the pa over the next 12-16
hrs. Of course just my views & not trading advise. Gt to all.

Como Perrie 21:18 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
1.3650 is nothing important there imo... so far might be seen or not .but doubt the euro to start strongly the week, but will see tomorrow as said earleir... there's an important meeting this week between Merkel and Sarkozy to watch from the political said.

Am off

NY Ed 21:14 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
So you are not a believer that we will see 1.3650 this week??
Thanks GT GL

Como Perrie 21:10 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 21:04 GMT May 6, 2007

Doubt, but bloomberg was maybe more focused on the superwelfare plan proposed by Royal more than anything else. For now he said ala french both things, the national independence and the european need to adapt to global changes. So far nothing has been said clearly as It's still party there and restourants and congratulations and champagne so tomorrow we are going to see.

NY Ed 21:04 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
All weekend, Bloomberg was saying that him winning is goodfor the Euro, AGREE????:

Como Perrie 21:02 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy wins with a 53 pct of votes, as the latest polls were showing. Some claches reported in Paris and Nantes. I'll see tomorrow after the party what he says.

Nite.

PS. ref cad 1.1000 is solid for now...plus the whole bunch of interest rates meetings and the like to come later the week.

NY Ed 21:01 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
ANYONE, WHO WON THE fRENCH ELECTION???

Syd 20:45 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
BIS Zhou: Concerned Bubble May Be Building In Stock Market
BASEL The governor of the People's Bank of China expressed anxiety Sunday that asset prices may be increasing too fast.
Asked by reporters ahead of a meeting of Group of 10 nations' central bankers in Basel whether he was concerned about the buildup of a bubble in the stock market, Zhou Xiaochuan said "Yes, we (are), because for the currency stability, we watch over CPI, PPI and also asset prices."

Syd 20:45 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 13:52 GMT May Good Day, If I manage to find any Good News I will post it , so far no such luck

London Misha 20:26 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
163.35 high so far

Netherlands T 20:23 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
163.75 has been bid

London Misha 20:16 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
HIHI M8,

Had a look, see 163.39 bid from close on Friday of 163.32. Looks like a toy just interpreted the 163.25 - 40 opening as that as far as I can see.

Delray beach RMN 20:13 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
look at a 5 min euro yen chart!

London Misha 19:16 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi M8,

What gap pls?

Delray beach RMN 19:11 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
can anyone explain the gap open in Eu/JP

Global-View AFX 16:36 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
The following (see below) is from our AFX News feed. Note Thomson purchased AFX last year and has a rumored interest in Reuters, which attests to the quality of the news we are offering. We still have some special deals for our AFX News feed so suggest contacting us by EMAIL as our special offer will end soon:

OUTLOOK Highlights of US economic data to be released this week -

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - A synopsis of US economic indicators to be released this week, with forecasts provided by Thomson's IFR Markets.

MONDAY, MAY 7

Consumer credit is seen rising by 4.0 bln usd in March after having risen by 2.9 bln usd in the prior month. "Weak auto sales indicate low growth in nonrevolving credit demand for both March and April," said Jeoff Hall of Thomson's IFR Markets.

TUESDAY, MAY 8

Wholesale inventories are seen rising 0.4 pct in March, after gaining 0.5 pct in February.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 9

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key federal funds rate target at 5.25 pct, where it has been since last June. The statement accompanying the decision will be closely watched for clues to Fed's thinking about inflation and slower economic growth. Hall notes that Fed funds futures suggest just a 64 pct chance of a quarter point rate cut by the October 31 meeting. That's down from better than full odds heading into the March employment report.

THURSDAY, MAY 10

Import prices are seen rising in April by 1.1 pct after rising by 1.7 pct in the prior month.

The US international trade deficit is seen widening to 59.8 bln usd in March from 58.4 bln usd. Hall notes that would be the widest deficit so far this year, though the ex-petroleum deficit should be among the lowest in the last three years.

Jobless claims claims are seen rebounding to 315,000 in the latest week after having plunged to 305,000 in the prior week.

The monthly Treasury budget is expected to have recorded a 145 bln usd surplus in April, following a 118.8 bln usd surplus in March. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the surplus even higher, at 176 bln usd. Hall notes that the seven month fiscal year-to-date deficit would be the smallest in five years.

FRIDAY, MAY 11

Wholesale inflation, as measured by the Labor Department's Producer Price Index, is seen rising 0.7 pct in April after rising 1.0 pct in March. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, "core wholesale inflation" is seen rising 0.2 pct in April, after having remained unchanged in March.

Retail sales are seen rising 0.3 pct in April after rising 0.7 pct in the prior month, while sales excluding autos are seen rising 0.4 pct in the month, after having risen 0.8 pct. "Such would be the third time in the last six months that ex-autos sales rose more than total sales. Look for sales at electronics and appliance stores to rise for the first time in four months," Hall said.

Copyright AFX News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

LKWD JJ 15:42 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
i know its early but see em see has weird quotes on their platform. any news? 1.9758 cable and chf [email protected]#$

FW CS 15:05 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Ric fxq
That political discussion we had on a few weeks ago. You inspired me to dig up the old sources again. to support the claims. If you are interested ask my email from Jay. Its a bit too lenghty to post.

Cbj Jake 14:40 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS - On the contrary, I am around intelligent people all day. They don't have a sense of comparative cultures, international politics, or,the great themes of literature. In college,if you were smart you didn't associate with business-school types - even the girls were rather limited.

Syd says how it is. There is no such thing as happiness/sadness. Mother Nature is so gracious she allows for everything, even great tragedies. So if you don't "freeze" life according to one's private history, You "enjoy" it all.

NY Ed 14:13 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
Speaking of good news, anyone think there will be GOOD opening news for eur/usd to the long side after the election today??

GENEVA DS 13:52 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
SYD

Thanks for all your posts.... I think we all know how bad everything is in this world... but what we all need is to get more constructive or positive news ... as well in this forum... I think personally we do not need people searching out for especially bad news all the time... how about people searching for good news? I think the future does not look so bad, if you are ready to change and to get educated yourself... GOOD WEEK END READING TO ALL...

Syd 11:48 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
On the edge of the abyss

Spot the warning signs
More than a million people are on the brink of serious debt difficulties even before the increase in interest rates the Bank of England is expected to announce next week.

The Bank's most recent Financial Stability Report estimated that Britain's personal debts have reached £1,300bn - or £1.3 trillion - making huge numbers of people vulnerable to an economic downturn. Business Strategies, part of the credit-checking firm Experian, forecast that higher interest rates could result in 115 families a day losing their homes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/05/cmdebt05.xml



Who's next in the global property crash?
It looks like the Spanish may be the first group of Europeans to experience a painful ending to the global property boom.

http://money.uk.msn.com/Investing/Insight/Special_Features/Moneyweek/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4839002

Syd 11:29 GMT May 6, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: Buffett Reiterates Caution On Derivatives
Billionaire Warren Buffett repeated his warning that the growth of derivatives and excessive borrowing by traders, investors and corporations will eventually lead to significant dislocation in the financial markets.

In fielding a question about derivatives, which he once referred to as "financial weapons of mass destruction," Buffett told some 27,000 shareholders at the annual meeting Saturday of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA) holding company in Omaha that he expects derivatives and borrowing, or leverage, would inevitably end in huge losses for many financial participants.
Buffett noted that existing accounting conventions allow parties involved in derivative transactions to value the same contract differently, leading to inadequate or incomplete picture of the contract's risk. "I will guarantee you, if you add up the marks on both side, they don't add up to zero," Buffett said, referring to the accounting of a single derivative contract.

Exacerbating the problem of derivatives and leverage is the short-term trading mentality and high turnover in the stock and bond markets, Buffett and Munger added. "There is an electronic herd of people around the world managing an amazing amount of money" who make decisions based on minute-by-minute stimuli, said Buffett, adding, "I think it's a fool's game."


Australia's Takeovers Panel Quashes Qantas Bid

Australia's Takeovers Panel on Sunday ended Airline Partners Australia's A$11 billion bid for Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN.AU) by refusing to allow an investor's late acceptance of the takeover received after a Friday deadline that would have triggered a two-week extension of the offer.

The Qantas Board is still to respond to the likely failure of the world's largest airline takeover deal, which they enthusiastically supported, while APA has said it will seek an urgent review by the panel of its decision.

Qantas shares are expected to plunge when trading resumes, although the Board is expected to request a suspension Monday at least until the panel completes its review and ends any lingering uncertainty about the fate of the takeover.