Forex Forum Archive for 05/07/2007

Gold Coast RC 23:53 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 23:37 GMT May 7, 2007
Martin do you have a cap level for gpy/yen
thanks

Syd 23:50 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min Ramps Up Alternative Policy Message


2344 GMT [Dow Jones] NZ Finance Minister Michael Cullen continues to ratchet up government moves pursuing alternative tightening measures to work alongside monetary policy to "address short-term pressures in the housing market." Says he's pleased that IMF supports government efforts to explore new options; "In the IMF's view various tax and prudential measures deserve further scrutiny and this is consistent with the government's view." Says government's proposal for Financial and Expenditure Select Committee to review operation of monetary policy is aimed at ensuring best options will be used to cool housing sector

Syd 23:39 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Embattled Qantas board under increasing pressure from government to state whether its 49% foreign ownership cap has been breached: Australian Treasurer Costello says board better have a good explanation if limit's been passed, says board has legal obligation to abide by legislated limit; Transport Minister Vaile yesterday wrote to QAN demanding immediate review of airline's share registry. Neither laid out what any potential consequences could be. With market due to open in about half an hour, Qantas at this point remains in trading halt

Gold Coast Martin 23:37 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
*Post below still valid. 8887 should stay respected for the rest of this month( give or take 3 pips for the spread retail accounts) and still serve as an early warning indicator of carry trade unwinding... g/l...


Gold Coast Martin 12:44 GMT April 26, 2007( from GVI)
FWIW.. NZD/JPY 8887 Level is a level that looks like will be respected for the rest of this month which points to a target of 8187 with 8627 shorter term target...fwiw..a good early indicator for yen crosses selling ...option play on this pair has good r/r...g/t

hk ab 23:21 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
a/j looks very toppish.

Syd 22:57 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Costello: Aim Is For Inflation Within RBA Target Band

Syd 22:42 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello: Budget Won't Create Price Pressures

Syd 22:36 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
The backlash has started against income inequality
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/07/ccview07.xml

Syd 22:29 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
IMF Warns Of Sharp Fall In NZD, Eyes Higher Rates

International Monetary Fund warns that NZD/USD could suffer "sharper depreciation in case of a global event such as a sudden unwinding of the carry trade." In its annual review of NZ, IMF also says NZD well above its long-run average, not supportive of an unwinding of country's large current account deficit. IMF also supports government moves to consider additional measures to cool housing market; "Directors broadly supported the view that limiting the ability to deduct losses on housing-related investments from other income, combined with more active enforcement of current tax laws, might help to discourage property speculation," it said. Also thinks NZ interest rates could go up further as inflation still high, cautions government against providing too much fiscal stimulus in May 17 budget. Pair, which tapped post-float peak of 0.7493 3 weeks ago

GVI john 21:55 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
yes you are correct re: AUD. Thanks will fix.. Use .8250.

Gen dk 21:37 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 21:18 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Dear John, thought the aud close was wrong. tia

GVI john 20:41 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3603	120.08	1.2114	1.9933	1.1020	0.8250	163.34
High	1.3628	120.21	1.2118	1.9974	1.1074	0.8251	163.44
Low	1.3591	119.79	1.2084	1.9932	1.1008	0.8207	162.96
05/07/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/07/2007					
5 day 	1.3594	120.10	1.2132	1.9927	1.1070	0.8219	163.25
10 day	1.3613	119.66	1.2096	1.9952	1.1118	0.8234	162.88
20 day 	1.3573	119.36	1.2107	1.9936	1.1220	0.8257	161.94
50 day 	1.3392	118.34	1.2152	1.9694	1.1483	0.8066	158.47
100 day	1.3217	119.29	1.2269	1.9639	1.1598	0.7935	157.64
200 day	1.3023	118.24	1.2322	1.9331	1.1441	0.7776	154.00

LKWD JJ 20:18 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm
music to my ears!! wasnt sure if targets were still valid. aye aye sir good trades and most of all good luck!!

LKWD JJ 20:18 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm
music to my ears!! wasnt sure if targets were still valid. aye aye sir good trades and most of all good luck!!

Lahore FM 20:09 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:57 GMT May 7, 2007
you know where.

Perth Randall El 20:08 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 04:52 GMT May 7, 2007
usd.chf
========
buy now 1.2089. Buy again every 30 pips

Perth Randall El 03:52 GMT May 7, 2007
gbp.usd
=======
sell now 1.9961
sell again if rise every 30 pips for 3 times.

=============================================
Take profits whenever you choose from the beauty of my calls.

LKWD JJ 19:57 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
QUESTION. if cad goes back to 11070 where should chf and cable be ?

Makassar Alimin 18:52 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:45 GMT May 7, 2007

got it JP ;) maybe it is just that I am bored with this slow market lately, expecting some good moves though starting next week till end of the month

Mtl JP 18:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Alimin 18:36, you seem to be bothered for no reason. perhaps you missed RIC fxq 22:34 GMT May 6

Makassar Alimin 18:36 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
market is extremely quite, wonder what will move it next

PAR 18:16 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Only minor incidents after Sarkozy election , demonstrators set fire to 730 cars and only 78 policemen were injured across France .

HK Kevin 17:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Cable have a downside target at 1.9780 which need to be filled.

Makassar Alimin 17:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
closed half gbpusd 1.9938 for +32, run the rest with same stop for 1.9908

Sofia mik 17:22 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA
I mean 6-8 months, SS

CANBERRA JD 17:19 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Already sold. ... Am going to sleep :P

Sofia mik 17:16 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA
sell &sleep

CANBERRA JD 17:01 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Hmmm. The only reason BOE would raise rates would be inflation. The rest of their data isn't good enough in my opinion for a raise....

NYC censored 16:51 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Weekly Market Overview

This week, we have three major central banks Interest Rate Decision. Will greenback last week’s gain continues in the week ahead? Probably not.

On April 17th, United Kingdom released its CPI (yoy) was way beyond the consensus of 2.8% came out at 3.1%. This indicated two things, first, it syndicates that Bank of England failed to provide the appropriate policy to maintain UK’s Inflation and second, UK inflation is beyond the comfort zoom, thus, BOE will most likely increase its interest rate from 5.25% to 5.50%. Despite, that market has already digested most of this event; however, further bullish pound movement can be expected before and after the news.

Speculation on EU rate hike remains high. Although, the forecast on May 10th, this coming Thursday European Central Bank’s rate decision is UNCHANGED but central banker, Mr. Trichet might give out more hints on when will the central bank increase its rate another 25 basis points. Euro might not be as volatile as Cable but in the relatively short term, it is expected to move higher against greenback.

In conclusion, this week will be the interest rate dominants week in all financial market. PNX believes U.S. dollar will have a difficult time continues its last week gain against European currency. Cable and EURO, especially Cable will likely anticipate mid term gain against Greenback.

P.S. Bank of England is in the process of advance its policy making transparency to the market. Please put extra attention on this Thursday’s rate announcement.

Makassar Alimin 16:23 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
CA_SF 15:57 GMT May 7, 2007

1.9930 and lower

CA_SF 15:57 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
alimin:

what do you expect the target for gbp/usd first?

Thanks

Lahore FM 15:51 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:40 GMT May 7, 2007
Alimin,not sure about the bottom but used to be a good support last time we were here.with alcoa and alcan and strong datas all round it looks okay to put a stop just under.

Makassar Alimin 15:40 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:33 GMT May 7, 2007

well done FM, you manage to pick the bottom there :)

Lahore FM 15:33 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:02 GMT May 7, 2007
bought usdcad at 1.1011.no stops for now,likely offload 1.1070.

-----------
stop placed at 1.1010.

Makassar Alimin 15:27 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
stop moved at BE, autopilot now, will tp if 1.9930 and below seen

Makassar Alimin 10:03 GMT May 7, 2007
short cable here intraday 1.9970 stop above 2, target open

MLT PA 15:19 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad targeting 1.0945
supply at 1.1180 then 1.1265

USA Zeus 14:51 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:34 GMT May 7, 2007

Kevin- Thx. Looks like the loonert is doing its daily cycle into USD strength.
GT

HK Kevin 14:34 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:41 GMT, brave traders will be rewarded.
Closed the remaining half of long Cable at 1.9964 this Asian afternoon. Short Aussie from 8258.

Porto JJ 14:29 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
hello

CANBERRA JD 14:08 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
just sold euro
could be over trading with this position, we'll see how it goes.

Lahore FM 14:02 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
bought usdcad at 1.1011.no stops for now,likely offload 1.1070

hk ab 14:01 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
aud and kiwi look much more vulnerable

CANBERRA JD 14:00 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
very mixed day, got enough for a pair of new underwear.

hk ab 13:59 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
sth is building a base at 1.1011?

USA Zeus 13:54 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
DOW 13,300
SP 500 1,515

Singapore SL 13:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Want to buy for short term EUR/USD, JPY/CAN. Not sure entry point.

USA Zeus 13:41 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Nibbled on some USD/CAD 1.1013 offers

RIC fxq 13:40 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:38 GMT

UK friends on hols!

hk ab 13:38 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
forum seems as quiet as the mkt.

Halifax CB 13:18 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Whoops Chart

Halifax CB 13:16 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
$CAD Chart. Daytrading entry would be above 1.105; current trendline speed about -0.85 pips/hour. Slowing a bit, but I think the return rate is still pretty constant (i.e. dp/p= (rate of price change)/ price...)CHART

Halifax CB 13:06 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Thought to give audusd a try, small short, SL 0.8285
CHART No target, sell and hold until either the trend line turns up or the SL is hit.

$CAD continues it's merry way....

madrid mm 12:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
S&P 500 Record Stoked by Companies' Growing China, German Sales

By Michael Tsang and Daniel Hauck

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- When the stock market's benchmark for Corporate America rallies to a record, investors can attribute the bull market to its growing dependence on the Chinese.

Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index get 49 percent of their sales from outside the U.S., up from 30 percent in 2001, according to S&P, whose index includes the biggest corporations. The balance may tip this year as global growth outpaces the U.S. The world economy will expand 4.2 percent in 2007, twice the U.S. pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Click here

madrid mm 12:44 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC, yes true, isn t it a paradox ? So much easy money, but what can we do with it ?

dc CB 12:38 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   

Statistics Canada Government of Canada
The Daily
Monday, May 7, 2007
Building permits March 2007
The value of building permits increased sharply in March, rebounding with a double-digit gain following a particularly sluggish performance in February.

Contractors took out building permits worth $6.1 billion, a 27.4% increase from February. Both residential and non-residential sectors recorded comparable gains.
Intentions in the non-residential sector surged 30.2% to $2.4 billion.
In the residential sector, both single- and multi-family components were on the rebound, pushing the value of permits up 25.6% over February to $3.7 billion. This was the highest level during the last five months.

slv sam 12:31 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
look at usdcad
I always thought usdcad is important to tell us what next for USD...and today it tells us USD is coming to considerable drop immediately..aimho of course!GT

Sydney ACC 12:20 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
The Australian stock market continued its record run today as reports from market analysts suggesting global miner BHP Billiton could take over rival Rio Tinto sent both stocks surging.
BHP Billiton jumped 96 cents, or 3.14 per cent, to $31.56, and Rio Tinto strengthened $4.53, or 5.22 per cent, to $91.38.

Helsinki iw 12:14 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
CAD: Alcoa of the USA places an unsolicited bid worth USD 27bil for Canadian rival Alcan. fwiw

hk ab 12:11 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
zeus, any weapon prepared for your baby goose cad?

Sydney ACC 12:10 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:45 GMT May 7, 2007
The single most contributing factor to the excess amount of liquidity in the system is the ageing of the baby boomers and the amount of money now being saved in superannuation. This is particularly exemplified in Japan where superannuants retire at an earlier age than most other countries. These people are retiring with assets on a per capita basis on average of USD 300k. Faced with low returns in Japan they seek higher returns elsewhere in countries such as NZ, Australia, UK and USA.
In Australia while we run a aurrent account deficit of approx 5% of GDP we have almpst AUD 1 trillion in super funds and managed funds. Managers face difficulties finding a home for most of this money.

London NYAM 12:07 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
GBP looking very presssures to sub 1.9900. but why? hmm 25 basis points in the face of an impending consumer credit crunch? It is unfortunate that the realization that interest rates have been raised too late will seem like deja vue. But it wontl ast forever. Once the realization that 50 bps are not comming yet, cable willl corect.

madrid mm 12:07 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Sale of the century - Apr 26th 2007 - From The Economist print edition - Companies are buying back their own shares at a record rate

BUY now while stocks last. The retailers' traditional slogan is being re-enacted in the American stockmarket. The supply of quoted shares is shrinking fast.
../..
If business conditions are getting more difficult, a bit of financial engineering will help. Buying back shares with borrowed money boosts earnings per share, so profit growth can continue to look healthy. That was an important driver in the final stages of the 1990s bull market.

In the long run, this is not sustainable. But so far, investors do not seem to have noticed. Slowing profits forecasts have been offset by an increase in the prospective profits multiple on American shares. Corporate borrowing rates are at cyclical lows, increasing the incentive for companies to buy back shares and for private-equity groups to launch takeovers. For as long as that buying spree continues, those who worry about the long-term will look out of touch.

http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9092789

GVI john 11:57 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

5/7/2007 7:55	EDT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.361	119.93	1.2095	1.9963	1.1051	0.6816	163.18
High	1.3612	120.18	1.211	1.9976	1.1074	0.6822	163.44
Low	1.3592	119.8	1.2084	1.9933	1.1051	0.6812	162.98
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3595	120.07	1.2089	1.9897	1.1051	0.6809	162.87
10 day	1.3613	119.64	1.2052	1.9905	1.1092	0.6807	162.21
20 day	1.3573	119.36	1.2066	1.9883	1.1198	0.6794	161.26
50 day	1.3393	118.34	1.2108	1.9638	1.1455	0.6784	157.72
100 day	1.3221	119.25	1.2223	1.9583	1.1564	0.6717	157.01
200 day	1.3021	118.19	1.2277	1.9261	1.1403	0.6724	153.34

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Turkey's crisis is political not religious, say analysts
Monday, May 7, 2007

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=72463

GVI john 10:52 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Plovidv Gotin 10:25 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 10:18 GMT May 7, 2007
I'm not so sure. As long as 1.3611 hold we cud see 1.3677/83 and 1.3701.

Melbourne Qindex 10:22 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:48 GMT May 5, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.0866 - 1.1118 (May 07 - May 11). A positive signal will be triggered if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 1.1202. On the other hand the odds are high that the market will trade within 1.0950 - 1.1034 sometime next week. My daily cycle indicates that the downside targeting points are 1.0955 and 1.0993.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0898 - 1.0917* - 1.0926 - 1.0941 // 1.0955* - 1.0975 - 1.0984 - 1.0994* - [1.1013] - 1.1033* - 1.1042 - 1.1052 - 1.1071* // 1.1086 - 1.1100 - 1.1110 - 1.1129* ...


Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT May 5, 2007
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the lower barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.5006 // 1.5083. The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.4879 - 1.5491. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the daily cycle normal upper limit at 1.5198. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily cycle normal lower limit at 1.4981.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4981 - 1.4999* - 1.5008 - 1.5021 // 1.5035* - 1.5053 - 1.5062 - 1.5071* - [1.5089] - 1.5107* - 1.5116 - 1.5125 - 1.5143* // 1.5157 - 1.5171 - 1.5180* - 1.5198 ...

slv sam 10:18 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
imho usd will start a new leg lower against all ccys including the JPY!GT

Makassar Alimin 10:03 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
short cable here intraday 1.9970 stop above 2, target open

madrid mm 09:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Anyone who says the dollar is weak after it fetched a record-low $1.3681 against the euro and the fewest pence against the pound in 25 years is expressing a euphemism.

The currency may decline at least another 10 percent by the end of 2008, say Jay Bryson, an economist at Wachovia Corp., and Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. The dollar has only fallen 3.4 percent in the past two years to a 10-year low, according to a Federal Reserve index that weighs trade with 38 countries including China, Mexico, Canada and countries in Europe. It tumbled 30 percent in the three years ended 1988.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aO4L3pT.zszM&refer=home

slv sam 09:42 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Kevin?
I hope you got out of your short cable late Friday!GT

Melbourne Qindex 08:43 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : A projected supporting barrier is located at [1.2054] - [[1.2054]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.2043.

Melbourne Qindex 08:41 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : A projected resistant barrier is located at [1.2105] - [1.2116].

Syd 08:39 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
: PBOC Adviser: Monitor Asset Price Rises
PBOC adviser Fan Gang says China should monitor asset prices, especially property and stock prices, as well as consumer price index. Comment suggests increasing bias towards tighter monetary policy. Asset prices rising strongly in China fueled by rapid liquidity growth; Shanghai Composite Index closed up 43.6% year-to-date on Apr. 30, last day of trade before May holiday. Fan says excess liquidity problem "growing more prominent daily," but adds the problem is "still manageable."

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1986 - 1.2139.

madrid mm 07:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Trichet, G-10 Colleagues, May Say Investors Under-Pricing Risk

By Gabi Thesing

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet and his Group of 10 colleagues may say investors aren't taking full account of potential risks as markets surge.

``There is too much money around globally, coupled with a degree of complacency toward risk,'' said Ken Wattret, chief euro- area economist at BNP Paribas in London. ``Central banks have been too accommodative for too long, contributing to all the cash that's sloshing around the system.''
Click here

Gen dk 07:22 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Benito Juarez 06:51 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Don Jose, un salud para usted y por nuestro país. Et le Français peut conserver leur cognac!

Como Perrie 06:46 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
French elections btw. have to be seen in developments into June, as stated earlier. So a no event for now. Official rioters in Paris is It said to be some 10K, but difficult to say exact numbers imo.

...follows from link lower, interesting the problem of welfare and unions in France printed

Indeed, one wonders if Royale is not a mirror image of Hillary, saying people should vote for her because the opponant is evil, doesn’t care anything for children, is a warmonger, and will cause poor people to riot in the streets.

Sarcozy dared to describe “youths” as “scum” and “thugs” for rioting and burning about 10 000 cars during the summer, thereby winning the Imus award for colorful language.

Yet the dirty little secret is that if Sarcozy wins, the one who will benefit the most will be the suburbs.

The French welfare system prevents the economy from forming new jobs. And, of course, law and order mainly benefit not the rich, who live far from the ghettos of the “immigrant suburbs’, but those who are languishing from joblessness and suffer from petty crime or worse by unemployed youth.

The trade unions are part of the problem…
Various governments have tried over the past 12 years to implement laws to free a stagnating economy, each time backing down after noisy street protests, some of them led by Thibault and his followers from the placard-wielding far left… Only about 8% of French workers belong to trade unions but they have a powerful grip on public services and some important companies, making it easy for them to paralyse the country by blocking transport systems.

And Sarcozy has the nerve to diss the ideas of 1968, which allowed street mobs to run the government.

To those of us of a certain age, it sounds like Reagan redux. Or Rudy Redux.

http://www.bloggernews.net/16553

madrid mm 06:45 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
The May issue of Currency Trader magazine is @ Click here

Como Perrie 06:40 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Jose' Quervo 06:32 GMT May 7, 2007

Cuervo would be more tequila like as a nickname

Jose' Quervo 06:32 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 06:23 GMT May 7, 2007

In other words- The weekend was full of celebration. The French citizens took to the streets to burn Citroens.
Meanwhile, Mexicans celebrated defeating them.

Como Perrie 06:23 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Le nouveau président de la République entrera officiellement en fonction le 16 mai. Entre temps, il devrait se retirer dans un lieu tenu secret, pour "décompresser" mais aussi mettre en place ses équipes. Le gouvernement devrait être désigné entre le 19 et 20 mai, avec pour mission de mener la majorité au succès pour les législatives des 10 et 17 juin.

http://www.lemonde.fr/

madrid mm 06:15 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Conservative Nicholas Sarkozy will be the next President of France, winning by a comfortable 53% over Socialist Leader Segolene Royal's 46.9%.

MoF Koji Omi: not worried about Japan falling back to deflation.

BoJ Minutes for March 19-20, : members agreed to maintain low rates for some time. BoJ should adjust rates gradually based on economy. Upward pressure on prices to rise if economy grows above potential.

MoF Hiroshi Watanabe says that concerns over impact of unwinding of JPY carry trades are exaggerated. MoF Watanabe says report of size of JPY carry trade by speculators at around $100bln are "about right."

PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan acknowledges that he is concerned about stock bubble. Say "not convenient" to say whether China will hike interest rates.

Bloomberg article: Fed Bernanke's consensus-driven decision-making style, fondness for inflation targets and reliance on the Fed staff all suggest he'll be slower than fmr Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to ease credit, economists say.

ASEAN+3 Finmins have agreed to pool FX reserves as effort to help avoid future financial crisis.

NZ Q1 private sector LCI +0.6%q/q vs +0.9% expected, while NZ QES Q1 Private Sector Ord Time earnings +0.7% vs expected +0.9%q/q.

WSJ: ABN Amro is weighing a $99b (EUR72.8b, GBP49.5b) takeover from RBS consortium, topping Barclays PLC's offer of $88.72b in stock. RBS team also made a conditional offer for LaSalle of $24.5b.

Qantas AUD$11b bid by consortium fails to take off after it did not win enough acceptance.

Relatively quiet markets, as EUR/USD opened a tad higher at 1.3602 from NY close of 1.3592 after news of "decisive" victory by Conservative Nicholas Sarkozy in French election, defeating Socialist Segolene Royal.

Market monitoring any impact of Sarkozy victory, as he has been critical on ECB and on high Euro. It dipped slightly again, before fresh waves of buying, interesting, from French Bank, pushed it to day highs of 1.3611. Hearing good offers, from US houses, funds, China at 1.3620-30, and suggestions of supranational offers as well. Next key level at 1.3650/ 1.3700 handle.

USD/JPY weighed by Japanese exporters, funds selling, hitting stops below 119.90 finally, as Japan returns from Golden Week, to 119.79 with JPY supported by focus on Wednesday's US Tripartite Subcommittee meet on CNY, JPY FX manipulation, Chaired by Sen Levin, same days as Fed FOMC decision - for any concerns over weak US economy, with USD weighed after Friday's weak jobs data.

Markets will be quieter today, with London away on Bank Holiday. EUR/USD bids still at 1.3550-60, while focus on Eurogroup Finmins meeting today, for any comments, or warning on high EUR.

GBP/USD eye recent M+A related deals, on the ultimate winner for ABN Amro. GBP/USD offers ahead of 1.9980-2.0000, with focus on Thursday 25bps BoE MPC Repo Rate hike to 5.50%.

Some AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY buying though, with talks of fresh Uridashi issues from World Bank, and AUD recovers strongly ahead of tomorrow's Budget, having recovered from its post RBA MPS selloff to lows of 0.81670.

Nikkei +1.67% or 290pts at 17,685, highest in 3 week, JGBs lower on firmer stocks, 10-yr yield +0.015% at 1.640%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.79/120.18, EUR/USD 1.3592/1.3611, GBP/USD 1.9932/1.9972, USD/CHF 1.20852/1.2110, AUD/USD 0.8206/0.8254, NZD/USD 0.7345/0.7377.

madrid mm 05:59 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
The week ahead will be dominated by central bank meetings.
-FOMC is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday and focus will again be on the language of the accompanying statement.
-ECB is also widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thurs.
-BoE will also announce rate decision on Thursday. BoE is widely expected to hike again this time after the surprisingly high inflation of 3.1% yoy in Mar. Opinion is divided on whether BoE will hike by 25bps or 50bps.

madrid mm 05:43 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
bloomberg/currencies

madrid mm 05:41 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi,

``I was happy to see the back of last year, it was a forgettable year,'' said Sean McBrien, a Dublin-based currency trader at Bank of Ireland, which trades about $271 million a day. ``There was a lack of volatility and long periods of time when the markets didn't do anything.''
Click here

CA_SF 05:26 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
hi again randall:

IF possible where is your target limit for gbp/usd?

Thanks

CANBERRA JD 05:00 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
I am 100% bullish usd from here... And yet, i am getting disappointed every tick.. How disappointing :P

Perth Randall El 04:52 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
usd.chf
========
buy now 1.2089. Buy again every 30 pips

Como Perrie 04:52 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
However, Mr Sarkozy’s triumph was marred by sporadic violence on Sunday night as demonstrators took to the streets in Paris, Lyons, Marseilles and Bordeaux to protest against the tough-talking former interior minister.

In the southern city of Toulouse, hundreds of demonstrators marched through the town centre setting off smoke bombs and stoning shop windows. A handful of protesters even tried to break into the town hall.

The scale of Mr Sarkozy’s victory, though, is only likely to embolden the leader of the ruling UMP party to push ahead with radical reforms this summer.

Mr Sarkozy has promised to cut taxes and loosen France’s tightly regulated labour market to stimulate faster growth in the world’s sixth-biggest economy. But he must first secure a parliamentary majority in legislative elections next month.

tokyo ginko 04:07 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP agreed. GT all

DALLAS GEP 04:03 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Actually IMO the best BUY on the USD is to short AUD/USD between here and 8260

Manchester McZelon 03:56 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Any body have any idea on Euro/USD pair today? It looks its good level to sell and grab 40-60pips

Perth Randall El 03:52 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=======
sell now 1.9961
sell again if rise every 30 pips for 3 times.

ok- I go to broker bales of wool.

dc CB 03:47 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
long SF 8275......bail 8214.............you do the math.

CA_SF 03:44 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
hi randall:

whats your view on cable/dollar?

thx

Perth Randall El 03:40 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
usd.chf
======
buy- if decline buy again every 25 pips for 3 times.

CANBERRA JD 03:39 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
It appears the markets focus on carry trades has disappeared, and the majors are coming into the eyes of the big guys.

Hopefully they start to correct the market.

tokyo ginko 03:38 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 03:20 GMT May 7, 2007
establish short eur/jpy position @ 162.55 for medium term play

btw, 162.55 is the forward June price, not spot

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:36 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 03:27 GMT May 7, 2007 || Perhaps some guidance from the Shogun of Oakland could be a start?

dc CB 03:31 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
test?

dc CB 03:27 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
CAD has garnered too much attention. time to look at another "ignored" currency. CHF?

Mtl JP 03:27 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad weekly close below 1.11 blocks this watelogged tweetybird. Likelyhood of 1.09xy zone on probability radar.

tokyo ginko 03:20 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
establish short eur/jpy position @ 162.55 for medium term play

Perth Randall El 03:17 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
=========
1.13 is coming

CANBERRA JD 03:15 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
am now short a/u and g/u. 20 and 50 pip t/ps. stops reasonably loose.

Syd 01:58 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Qantas: Requests Trading Halt Until Tuesday

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:58 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Shorting the AUDosaurus with a tight stop... leaving just enough room for half-measures.

Syd 00:29 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello: New Qantas Bids Would Face FIRB Review
Australia's Costello: Qantas Board Must Clarify Intentions

Syd 00:07 GMT May 7, 2007 Reply   
Failed Qantas Bid A Mild Negative For AUD - ANZ
Some unwinding in large, long-AUD hedges related to Airline Partners Australia bid for Qantas (QAN.AU) may follow news the A$11 billion bid failed, says Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank; bid collapse poses a mild negative for AUD in coming days as likely to damp positive-AUD sentiment linked to M&A activity. AUD/USD at 0.8212 in early Asian dealings; up from 0.8193 late Friday though softer overnight; will extend correction should payrolls-linked USD weakness continue.