Forex Forum Archive for 05/08/2007

USA Zeus 23:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Should read- "The Dow is are at historic levels for the same reasons..."

USA Zeus 23:57 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:44 GMT May 8, 2007
USA Zeus 23:29 GMT May 8, 2007
What does that mean Zeus? Why is the Dow at these historic levels? Are these stocks increasing in value or is the value of the money itself falling? The truth is that more money is flowing into European stocks as these markets are considered to be good value and because the dollar is expected to fall further.

The Dow is at the historic levels for the same reasons they were every time in history- demand vs supply.

Not debating if European stocks may/may not be "considered" to be "good value" (whatever that means). Esp if the new French president can get the youth off their arses and compete.
If the dollar is expected to fall then why are there market forces expecting it to rise? Otherwise wouldn't it freely fall straight down since the market is a discounting mechanism.
Or is that where you believe the CB's cushion the blow by slowly offering currency to everyone- since the outcome is known in advance?

If the US imports from China finished goods then it makes sense that we export raw (and finished) goods to them.

UK Alex 23:44 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:29 GMT May 8, 2007
What does that mean Zeus? Why is the Dow at these historic levels? Are these stocks increasing in value or is the value of the money itself falling? The truth is that more money is flowing into European stocks as these markets are considered to be good value and because the dollar is expected to fall further.

Btw, I said China was the United State's third largest export market.

RIC fxq 23:39 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
it is pretty laughable, given their respective tracks records of accuracy , how many people accept OECD and IMF projections as gospel. These turkeys are all cut from the same cloth and spout the same lines year after year.

Face it, they are faceless, overpaid bureaucrats who aren't good enough to find private sector jobs that pay better.

just MHO of course.

Syd 23:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Yuan Set For A More Assertive Month
e yuan has been slow to gain in the past month - but that may be about to change.

The yuan has risen about 0.3% against the U.S. dollar in the past month and has fallen against some currencies like the euro, Canadian and Australian dollars.

That doesn't mean Beijing is sending a rebuke to calls for faster yuan gains. It's just that officials, preoccupied with a liquidity wash that's causing all sorts of problems, are looking at solutions that lie less with the outright yuan reform and more with bills issuance and reserve requirement ratios.
At the same time, there are reasons to think the yuan may pick up speed as China returns from its weeklong holidays. The People's Bank of China set the parity rate surprisingly low Tuesday and the dollar was quoted late in the session at CNY7.6973/7.6977 on the OTC market, down from a last quote on April 30 of CNY7.7039/7.7043. Paulson has the hounds of the U.S. Congress snapping at his heels for failing to produce a meaningful shift in China's currency regime, with a joint hearing later Wednesday of several subcommittees of the House of Representatives on country currency manipulation, focusing mostly on China and Japan.

USA Zeus 23:29 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:11 GMT May 8, 2007

Naive? Are the markets a discounting mechanism or do they ignore the law of Alex? Did you anticipate Dow 13k back in July when so many in this forum were trying to short the Dow on the assumption of the twins, war etc. Story never changes (markets are different this time) just the dates. Will the tendency to "sell in May and go away" happen this year? Who cares? Cycles are cycles.

Yes you are right about China exporting to the US. But, what are they exporting? Have not seen too many Chinese labeled products around. Did the Chinese rise as a country to compete with the US or did the US find a cheaper way to get American branded items to the store-further boosting profitability?

UK Alex 23:27 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Fed officials likely to dust off March statement later in day; FOMC universally expected to stand pat on rates which means focus as usual on post-meeting statement. That document, analysts say, will keep retain Fed's flexibility on policy, stress anti-inflation focus. "There will be less confusion generated by the statement this time," says ex-Fed Governor Meyer, now with Macroeconomic Advisers; "that is because it will barely change." Miller Tabak's Tony Crescenzi adds "the changes made in March have a long enough shelf-life that there need be no change to the upcoming statement given no major changes have occurred in the economic landscape"; those changes in March included comment recent indicators "mixed" after saying on Jan. 31 they "suggested somewhat firmer growth." Fed also tweaked longstanding line that "any additional firming that may be needed" would depend on incoming data; instead, it said in March "future policy adjustments" will depend on incoming data, which could mean moves in both directions.

USA Zeus 23:15 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 22:55 GMT May 8, 2007
LOL- Yes yes of course! That's it- Canadia reigns supreme! What happens to the economy in the USA no longer influences Canada- drive 'em all back away from the border mounties. LMAO!

On a more serious note. Buy gold and watch the true meaning of exponential nothingness over time. The Dow on the other hand will continue its never ending climb to reflect the heart of global prosperity. And yes while you may pay the bank to guard your gold, the bank will return it to shareholders further boosting equity value.

Anticipate a multi-year strong dollar cycle to begin anew sometime this year.

Syd 23:15 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Budget Won't Push RBA Over Line - ICAP
Headline numbers imply Australian budget is only injecting about 0.3 percentage point of GDP into economy in 2007/08, says ICAP Australia chief economist Michael Thomas. For central bank worried about economy running too fast, this shouldn't be issue, Thomas says. However, economic parameters underlying budget projections generally are conservative and hopes for productivity growth are optimistic. There isn't enough in this budget to push RBA across line and policy deliberately pitched to suggestively massage hip-pocket nerve of voters without tweaking nerves in RBA'
trigger finger, he says.

RBNZ Raises Regulation Threat, Impact Unclear -GS

UK Alex 23:11 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:58 GMT May 8, 2007
Don't be so naïve. The Fed is conducting market smoothing operations on a regular basis now. There are still a lot of nervous investors out there and just the merest sign of a sell-off will send them running for the exits. Corporate results may have been good -- with one or two exceptions -- but that is historic and backward looking. OECD forecasts are predicting slower growth for the future and if/when there is a recovery it will be from a position of weakness. And then there is China, the United State's third largest export market if I'm not mistaken. Well, I expect there will be some pretty stiff competition here in the form of Japan, so watch out.

Mtl JP 22:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 21:36, peddle schmeddle ..use ..for a wipe: you betcha! that is all it is going to be good for if/when DJ hits 25K.

In the meantime: The Royal Canadian Mint has produced the world's first 100-kilogram gold coin with a face value of $1 million. And they're for sale (cbc). Except for "well over $2 million" of the azzwipes.

ps/ it is an interesting exercise to price DJ in terms of number of onces of gold over time. Stay tuned.

Syd 22:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Talking down markets LEX fT.
The People’s Daily used to warn China’s citizens to distinguish between “fragrant flowers” and “poisonous weeds”. Now the state media advises them on the perils of a stock market bubble, with several newspapers on Tuesday carrying warnings from the central bank’s governor. These tactics used to work: a 1996 People’s Daily editorial knocked the market down by 10 per cent. But there are few better demonstrations of the ascendancy of capitalism than the fact that such official signalling is now ignored. On Tuesday, the Shanghai composite index closed up nearly 3 per cent.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6d3d763a-fd8d-11db-8d62-000b5df10621.html

UK Alex 22:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:52 GMT May 8, 2007
The contract is settled on June 20th, so it is predicting what the LIBOR rate will be approximately half-way between the June/July meetings. However, the fact remains that the STIRs market is very bullish on rates and I can't see how this could lead to the downfall of the pound. That's if you're using an exchange rate model based solely on interest rate differentials.

jkt-aye 22:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
GV ... please correct gbp low data. tia

Syd 22:27 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello Wednesday said his pre-election budget, delivered Tuesday night, was unlikely to trigger an early election. "I'm not privy to any great secrets but I wouldn't have thought it was likely," Costello told Channel Nine television.

Syd 22:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
IMF Says New Zealand Currency Could Depreciate Quickly
New Zealand's currency, though market determined, is still valued well above its long-term levels and could depreciate quickly, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.
"The exchange rate is well above its long-run average and is not supportive of an unwinding of the sustained, large current account deficit," the IMF said in a press summary of its annual review of New Zealand's economy. IMF "directors recognized that a correction might be delayed by continuing capital inflows, but also pointed to the risk of a sharper depreciation in case of a global event such as a sudden unwinding of the carry trade." The IMF said consumption in New Zealand had rebounded, after a slowdown in 2006. A resurgent housing market, and revived consumer and business confidence, point to faster economic growth, the IMF said. The current account deficit, a broad measure of trade, remains "uncomfortably large," equal to 9% of gross domestic product, the IMF said. The government should consider additional measures to limit buoyancy in the housing market, the IMF said.

Syd 22:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
ECOFIN:EU Fin Mins Discuss Prospects For Stronger Dollar
The finance ministers also discussed possible hedge-fund regulations. Germany, France and the Netherlands have been pushing for new rules amid concerns that hedge funds pose a risk to the stability of financial markets. Other countries oppose such a move. The ministers on Tuesday agreed to keep monitoring the industry from a distance, though Steinbrueck said he will push to have a code of conduct in place before the end of the year. Hedge funds have come under increasing scrutiny in Europe over the past few years as they have attracted larger investments. Concerns peaked last September when U.S.-based hedge fund Amaranth Advisors lost roughly $6 billion in a single week trading natural gas futures.

Syd 22:14 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
ECOFIN: EU Fin Mins Discuss Prospects For Stronger Dollar
BRUSSELS European Union finance ministers Tuesday discussed the prospects of a stronger U.S. dollar and a stable Japanese yen.
Both currencies have weakened against the euro in recent months and though the yen has recovered slightly, the euro continues to hover near all-time highs against the dollar.
Some of Europe's finance ministers are worried that the euro's elevated rate will make the continent's exports more expensive, hurting the broader economy.
"We asserted that exchange rates should reflect the economic fundamentals. We confirmed what we said in the past, that excessively abrupt exchange rate fluctuations are not very good for economic development," German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told a news conference following a regular monthly meeting of the E.U.'s finance chiefs.
Steinbrueck, who chaired the meeting, said the ministers noted that "our American partners have an interest in a strong dollar as well. As before, the development is very sound in the U.S., so that should have a greater influence on exchange rate developments."
He added that the Japanese yen is on a "sustainable recovery course."

Syd 21:47 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ: Imbalances May Trigger Disorderly FX Fall

RBNZ says saving, investment imbalances risk a "disorderly correction" in FX, capital markets; in its 6-monthly Financial Stability Report RBNZ governor Bollard also expresses concern about rise in low deposit mortgage lending, which could prolong housing boom, put banks at risk. Still, he points to recent rise in mortgage lending rates, saying they've returned to "more realistic levels" - suggesting governor may be satisfied with impact of two quick-fire 25 bps rate hikes in March, April, to 7.75%. On NZD, while aware of possibility of global shift toward risk aversion, Bollard says NZ's high yields should mean that substantial upcoming maturities in Eurokiwi, Uridashi bonds "will be met with continued offshore issuance of these bonds."

FW CS 21:44 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:49 GMT May 8, 2007
I agree with your targets by say October but I think $ needs to correct decent amount to shake out the record on balance volume weak $ bears before that happens. Euro maybe back to like 1.29ish minimum and its been a long time since we have seen a 10 figure correction.

USA Zeus 21:36 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:17 GMT May 8, 2007
Thx :-)

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT May 8, 2007

#1 peddle schmeddle copy print burn or use the global reserve currency in Canadian wilderness outhouses for a wipe- it will not determine the outcome.
#2 As history is your witness.

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 20:58 / what I said is that the FED is a peddler of the fiat that you use to gage DJ's level in 2010.
--
In ref to communism: it is the ultimate form capitalism. For those at the top.

GVI john 21:22 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 21:18 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   

5/8/2007 21:16	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3542	119.94	1.2175	1.9888	1.1047	0.6809	163.42
High	1.3622	120.14	1.2197	1.9962	1.1059	0.6828	163.38
Low	1.3515	119.52	1.2104	1.9681	1.1007	0.6792	161.91
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3579	120.14	1.2100	1.9837	1.1034	0.6807	162.68
10 day	1.3604	119.79	1.2061	1.9877	1.1069	0.6808	162.38
20 day	1.3578	119.41	1.2064	1.9883	1.1174	0.6794	161.40
50 day	1.3399	118.38	1.2107	1.9640	1.1442	0.6786	157.85
100 day	1.3225	119.27	1.2222	1.9585	1.1559	0.6718	157.09
200 day	1.3025	118.22	1.2276	1.9267	1.1401	0.6724	153.42

Syd 21:17 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:58 GMT that correct :-))

AMS MAXXIM 21:15 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
it zin%sen rates will go up. food for tought uitged8

USA Zeus 21:12 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
AMS MAXXIM 20:55 GMT May 8, 2007
Yes- to the MAXXIMUM!

LKWD JJ 21:07 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
SEC Sues Couple for `Suspicious' Dow Jones Trades (Update5)

By David Scheer and David Glovin

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued a Hong Kong couple for using inside information to make $8.2 million from purchases of Dow Jones & Co. stock before News Corp.'s $5 billion bid for the company.
------------------------------
i guess its not so easy to make money in shanghai stock exchange that they tried this idea.

USA Zeus 20:58 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:49 GMT May 8, 2007
You missed the point- again. The FOMC does not decide where a stock market ought to be and set policy to reach those levels based on a printing press routine.

And yes the market (forces as a whole) determine the actions of the FOMC not the other way around. Anything else is for a communist. LOL

LKWD JJ 20:56 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:49 GMT May 8, 2007
jj/ And what if the market gets what it expects? Just wondering as it seems to me that some bets are probably for the surprise. Just a thought
=====================
if the mkt gets what it expects (25) it will leave the door open for another hike again. wheres the "bets" if cable has been offered of late...

AMS MAXXIM 20:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:09 GMT May 8, 2007
don't worry be a happy hooker

LKWD JJ 20:52 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:47 GMT May 8, 2007
lkwd jj 16:41 GMT May 8, 2007
Short Sterling currently sees the June LIBOR rate settling around 5.85%.
===========================
that means the mkt is looking @ a 50bp hike, no? but i didnt see fx buying of cable rather selling after 2.01. the pound hasent really moved much since then 200 pip range. it didnt exactly fly to 1.98 either it was at 1.96 not 1.92 before the inflation numbers came out a few weeks ago.

Mtl JP 20:49 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
zeus, I wish.... ..CB were just a theory, lol. But theory they are not, alas, a market player they are.

CS - dlr bear or bull tuff call: me thinketh yr-end euro to 1.38, dlreyn to 123, gbp is running a chance of higher rate than that of the US atm, but am inclined to expect gbp around current level.

PAR 20:31 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Guess Kampo will sell more japanese shares and assets to buy more USDJPY and US treasuries ?

FW CS 20:20 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP
If the foreigners ever stopped buying US T-Bonds then we will see the true inflation rate in the US but such an event probably will not happen too soon for previuosly metnioned reasons as long as Japan and China keep buying up the paper

I am in the minority camp expecting USD strength next few months. Strong USD doesn't necesarrily mean strong economy but such things are irrelevent for trading.

USA Zeus 20:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:12 GMT May 8, 2007
That is fine. The most stable economy/democracy remains. You can debate the future. My point is not based on the printing press theory but rather a pure capitalist one. I believe in innovation and business to drive an economy- not CB theory. In my book they follow- not lead a market.

Mtl JP 20:12 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
well Zeus 19:51, global printers are running at somewhere around 16-18% on average. It is generaly estimated that Ben printer is runnining around 10-12%. But Ben's fiat has the current added feature of being the so-called reserve ccy for intl trade. It is incumbent upon Ben and his crew to maintain everyone else's faith in his fiat. I don't expect investors wanting to hold script that would potentialy have to double in quantity (i.e. half in purchasing power) without compensation.

Sofar the FED has been able to bamboozle and smudge the market's vision with liquidity to the its own struggle over control of "inflation". I expect market should be testing FED's ability to respond at some near point in time to what the FED has been promoting as"responsive to incoming data".

Gen dk 19:51 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 19:51 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:43 GMT May 8, 2007

JP- Yes am not looking at it linear-like. See it logarithmic-like and sticking to my view (by the end of 2010).
Harry Dent won't be the only one dancing at the party (just like his last).

UK Alex 19:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:43 GMT May 8, 2007
Won't China's printing presses have to keep running at full speed too, bearing in mind where a lot of companies profits are coming from at present.

Mtl JP 19:43 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 18:45, for backround, (going from memory) dj took 27-29 years to hit 6K, then 4 or 5 to pile on another 6k get to 12K. Your call for 25K is for a heaping of another 12-13K over the next 2 1/2 years. Sounds exponential to me.

To reach the 25K by 2010, pray tell your expectations for speed of Ben's printer and expectation of Ben's interest rates to keep so-called foreigners from mass dumping of the dlr fiat.

The Netherlands Purk 19:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Netherlands T 19:05 GMT May 8, 2007

Yeap, beware of the clogs people, they seem to have a nose for usd strength.... not me not me.....

UK Alex 19:06 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Brazil's Central Bank To Buy Dollars At Spot Mkt Auction
Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars At Rate Of BRL2.0225

Netherlands T 19:05 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 18:37 GMT May 8, 2007 and Zues.
I'am with you guys. Am long the USD for a while already. Will start adding to my positions once I get confirmed that the trendline on the daily and weekly in USD/CHF is holding. (line is at 1.2160 at the moment).

UK Alex 19:04 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 19:00 GMT May 8, 2007
Actually, some central banks have been buying dollars recently. Brazil is one of them.

RIC fxq 19:00 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:43 GMT

as you probably saw one of the wire services just mentioned "unofficial bids" in USDJPY.

Gen dk 18:49 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 18:45 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
My Bernanke indicator says rate change tom = none. Same babble about inflation concerns. Likely raise rates next year as the big unit keeps rumbling and picks up steam as earnings soar. DOW 25k by 2010.

UK Alex 18:43 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:37 GMT May 8, 2007
Well I suspect as much too. Just don't have any evidence. BOJ need to maintain a competitive rate to compete with China and other Asian countries who peg their rate to the dollar.

Como Perrie 18:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Hey guys ...don't try to do the Bernanke's job right now. This, tomorrow, will be one of the more problematic and difficult FOMC meetings ever imo. So just watch

USA Zeus 18:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 18:11 GMT May 8, 2007
Yes! Weak USD shorts are likely to face a a massive Wrecking ball for being faked/shaked- in on a Wrong turn.

Then we will know the truth about what happened to JR.

Fairfield JC 18:37 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:31 GMT May 8, 2007

The USD strength across the board is coming, this week or next...call it a correction or a shock when it happens....but it is coming. Zeus seems to be the only one here who thinks the same. BUT, who knows I could be biting my tongue shortly going against the trend as most of the FX traders out there, but we will see. I need to breathe so lets hope there is a burst in the CAD bubble so i can get a breathe.

PAR 18:37 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Just guessing but imho it is confirmed by the way the yen is manipulated .

UK Alex 18:34 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:31 GMT May 8, 2007
BOC have a big repo coming up soon.

melbourne DC 18:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:16 GMT May 8, 2007
thx. all the best.

Mtl JP 18:31 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
JC 18:11 / the underwater zeusmariner enthusiasts' tiny saving grace is that the floating to surface hope is being sustained by positive carry, having yet again bumped against sellers at 1.1060earlier today. So far no sign of airhole.

UK Alex 18:24 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:17 GMT May 8, 2007
Your source? Is this genuine off-the-record information or is it just guesswork on your behalf?

The Netherlands Purk 18:20 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Ah good, that means that everybody will short the usd, MIB will decide who to hunt.

PAR 18:17 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Semi official bids by Kampo, and co keep pushing up USDJPY .

UK Alex 18:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 18:13 GMT May 8, 2007
NAR has scaled back its '07 Home Sales Forecast too. The day of reckoning is not far away.

The Netherlands Purk 18:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:09 GMT May 8, 2007

What, what? Is Bobby gonna kill jr for real now? No comeback?

melbourne DC 18:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
=DJ US Non-Manufacturers Sharply Scale Back 2H Expectations-ISM
09 may 2007 04:05 ausest By John McAuley
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--In a worrying sign for the economy, the non-manufacturing sector in the U.S. has sharply scaled back its growth expectations since December, according to the Institute for Supply Management's semi-annual survey published Tuesday. The non-manufacturing sector includes services, construction and agriculture and accounts for about 85% of the overall economy.

GVI john 18:12 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
from GVI..

libor	tgt	1mo 	2mo	3mo	Whats priced?
US	5.25%	5.32	5.34	5.36	unch
UK	5.25%	5.66	5.70	5.75	May hike
EUR	3.75%	3.86	3.98	4.04	June hike
JPY	0.50%	0.63	0.65	0.67	unch
CHF	2.25%	2.23	2.32	2.38	June hike?
CAD	4.25%	4.34	4.34	4.35	unch
AUD	6.25%	6.37	6.36	6.40	unch

Fairfield JC 18:11 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:09 GMT May 8, 2007

(W)recking......Capital (W) Zeus!!!!! Capital!!!!!!

USA Zeus 18:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I sense the day of (w)reckoning is near.

USA BAY 18:03 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
COMO PERRIE,

YES, agree with you, no clear set ups now. So better to wait and see.

Como Perrie 17:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I would not trade much into next days. Beware and ready for the market to show out first.

Como Perrie 17:56 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:21 GMT May 8, 2007

Interesting, tks.

They do talk all in choir what is meaningless. Dust and mirror politics for investors. So far the problem is that credit has expanded too far, else why they would have cut out the M3 from showing us.

toronto df 17:53 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
is it advisable to long eur/yen @ current?

Mumbai Deepak 17:45 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Thomas...Profits (If any) are Taxable. And from what I know, One has to furnish the details of trades done to the IT Dept.

A couple of Stock Brokers In India have tied up with Global Brokerages. (Most of them available in GV adds), to provide trades. Will they provide Options is something I dont know.

Day Trades would be permissable, however, does any one makes money out of day trading? I am not too sure!!!

Do you know ...DGCX is launching an offshore market for USD-INR FUTURES in 2 months in Dubai, which has forced the RBI to take this step.

moscow mike 17:37 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 15:30 GMT May 8, 2007
moscow mike 12:42 GMT May 8, 2007
IF it is not a complete flush out, then EURYEN should long form here (162.0x)
=============
unloaded half +25
================
unloaded last +40

GT

Abu Dhabi Thomas 17:35 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Deepak are the proceeds taxable.Do I have to furnish any documents to the IT dept in this regard.Is day trading possible.

toronto df 17:35 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
long gb/yen, @ .60 any coments?

toronto df 17:35 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
long gb/yen, @ .60 any coments?

Mumbai Deepak 17:32 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Thomas...The recent RBI Credit Policy now allows Resident Indians to trade forward contracts upto a limit of US$ 1 Lac.
BTW, I am trading on my export account.

Hari...Why do you need a strategy when you have already decided to "BUY" the EUR. LOL. Kidding.

Abu Dhabi Thomas 17:22 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Dear Deepak.Since you are in Mumbai can u advice how a resident indian can trade in forex.

Chennai Hari 17:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have any advice or strategy in buying the euro.TIA

London NYAM 16:49 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
jj/ And what if the market gets what it expects? Just wondering as it seems to me that some bets are probably for the surprise. Just a thought.

UK Alex 16:47 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 16:41 GMT May 8, 2007
Short Sterling currently sees the June LIBOR rate settling around 5.85%.

lkwd jj 16:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
stepping back for a moment. the fed will not move on rates and the boe will, the only question remains how much. @ 1.99 the mkt is not expecting a 50 pt hike. the 20ma daily is @19902. long here with 30 pip stop is my trade.

Mumbai Deepak 16:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF Spot @ 1.1025.

View….A towards correction towards 1.0700 in the next 3 months.

Buy 1 3M CAD/CHF 1.1000 Put with KO at 1.1300, (current rate) 166 CHF pips.
Sell 2 3M CAD/CHF 1.0700 Put (currently) at 75 CHF pips each.
Net Cost: 16 CHF pips.

Break Even: Max Loss 300 pips on a move above 1.1300 for the spot. On charts 1.1262 is a massive Resistance and unexpected to break. On the downside there could be losses below 1.0400 as 1 put is uncovered. However, for that to happen, USD/CAD will have to have a huge rally, and I am willing to sell a rally on the USD/CAD. Additionally, I would book profits on the trade at 1.0700.

Max Profit: 300 pips at 1.0700, which is a big Support for CAD/CHF, which is now likely to get tested within the next 3 months. 1.0700 is the Feb-07 High for the cross.

I would book profits at 1.0700 on the spot.

Views and comments welcome.

UK Alex 16:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
In an interview with MarketWatch, former Fed governor Ed Gramlich said he believes the biggest risk facing the central bank is that the economy could quickly lose momentum and the Fed will find itself waited too long to cut rates.
Gramlich said he didn't see much risk of inflation gathering momentum.
In general, Gramlich said the next Fed move depends on the data. "When they said the next move depends on the data, they mean that. They're not being artful," Gramlich said.

London NYAM 16:15 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Cable bounced off the .618 retracement at 1.9892 but the move down from 1.9962 may be the final leg of an abc (hence this was a bwave off the lows of 19841) correction within a potentially larger correction taking the rate up to 1.9990 and 2.0020. Only a break of 1,9962 will signal this count as correct and the recent lows must hold. I favour a strengthening of a pound and a slightly better than 50-50 bet that the pound has already exhausted itself towards amove to 19600 area.
Similar patterning is found in the Yen which needs a move above 120.13 May 7th high to get any traction. I favour a look back at 120+ before a resumption of dollar selling.
Timing will be key for the cross and i do not expect both the above scenarious to play out simultaneously instead they will rotate with GBPJPY finding topside rsistance at 238.75-90 before following down to 237.00 before consolidation.

Halifax CB 16:14 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Alex & others - fwiw, the actual (still a little buggy - need to fix up the time scaling to handle tick data on the charts) code if you want it (it's written for Metatrader) is HERE. The KalmanNotes.txt however is just a copy of the main routine with a ".txt" stuck on the end, so it can be read in Notepad or a browser.

UK Alex 16:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Fed on hold, with more questions than answers

PAR 16:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Kampo and other japanese players pushing USDJPY back above 120.00 .

Halifax CB 16:07 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Sure; I don't think I have your address - you can get mine from Jay.

UK Alex 15:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 14:07 GMT May 8, 2007
Any chance you could mail me some notes on the implementation of the Kalman filter you use? I'm very interested in it from the academic point of view. Thanks in advance.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:47 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
The [UK"S BCC] has also accepted that, after last month's shock infl figures (Mar CPI overshot the BoE/MPC's upper target at 3.1%), another increase in the official Bank Rate to 5.50% may be necessary in May to restore credibility in the anti-infl strategy. The recent upsurge in infl has been bigger than anticipated and has also been bigger than comparable upturns in other G7 economies. But there is a clear danger that natural concern over recent developments could produce an over-reaction, which in turn would result in damaging monetary overkill. At this stage, calls in some quarters for a 50 bp increase in rates, to 5.75%, are misguided and potentially dangerous, the BCC argued. IGM

Gen dk 15:36 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 15:34 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Mike...being late to read your post 12:42 but still got +7. thx

moscow mike 15:30 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 12:42 GMT May 8, 2007
IF it is not a complete flush out, then EURYEN should long form here (162.0x)
=============
unloaded half +25

madrid mm 15:25 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
China Raises Foreign-Currency Reserve Requirement (Update2)

By Christina Soon

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank raised the amount of foreign currencies that lenders must keep as reserves, seeking to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Banks must keep 5 percent of their foreign-currency deposits as reserves starting May 15, up from 4 percent, according to a People's Bank of China circular to lenders obtained by Bloomberg News. The increase will remove about $1.7 billion from the economy.

The decision will make less of the $165 billion of foreign- currency deposits as of March 31 available for lending and investment in the stock market, which surged to a record today. It may also ease pressure for appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which has gained 7.5 percent since July, 2005.


bloomberg currencies Click here

madrid mm 15:23 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp., comments on the euro's decline against the dollar today.

``People are unwinding some of the euro long positions,'' he said. ``It is a continuation of the correction we saw last week. U.S. data isn't completely on the weak side. The market has been way too long on the euro.'' A long position is a bet on a currency's advance.

madrid mm 15:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers questioned the credibility of Paul Wolfowitz and called for a swift end to the month-long standoff between the World Bank president and directors seeking his ouster.

Halifax CB 15:10 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Well here's my $CAD chart LINK; not much has changed. But I have added a velocity chart at the bottom - measured in annualized return rate (currently around -43%); the yellow line is from the Kalman prediction cycle; the red line is from the Kalman update cycle. Note that the return rate is slowly going back to 0....

London M 15:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I do disagree with Kampo bid. There are quite a few Toshin issues together with Japanese institutional new year investments. Kampo may be one of them to fund USD and other currencies for the new fiscal year activity but it is not an intervention or anything. It is better not to mislead the market

PAR 14:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Rumors Kampo and friends buying USDJPY below 119.60.

lkwd jj 14:43 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
flat now after long chf and short cable. took a while but saw some pips on both. $y lookd like it has room for a drop, but with the usd doing its thing today its a brave sell.

hk ab 14:43 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
zeus, I may try that after the deal is over. right now, that 27 bil. seems still at work.

USA Zeus 14:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Would not surprise me to see USD/CAD 1.14-15 on a rebound.

HK Kevin 14:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD intraday resistance at 1.1059, next 1.1090

Bodrum OEE 14:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 14:35 GMT May 8, 2007

Dear friend, never. My best wishes. Good day

hk ab 14:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad comes back to the interesting 5 dma again...

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:35 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 04:51 GMT April 26, 2007 || Perhaps it is not too late to thank you for your kind gesture?

Gen dk 14:34 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 14:28 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:17 GMT May 8, 2007
Haifa VS 14:16 GMT May 8, 2007

Reason is fundamental and so is overvaluation for those who follow content

Haifa VS 14:25 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin
It is because the other 8 are gamblers too, they just don't know it jet...

Makassar Alimin 14:23 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
FM, will you short usdcad 1.1070 with stop just several pips above to test the previous day high and with target 1.09xx?

CANBERRA JD 14:23 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Closed all positions for today... AM happy... The down continues... Unlucky longers..

HK Kevin 14:22 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Haifa VS 14:19 GMT, 1 out of 10 gambler wins, but 2 out of 10 in the fx market. What do you like?

Makassar Alimin 14:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
btw remaining short gbpusd were just closed 1.9898...better than initial 1.9908

Gen dk 14:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa VS 14:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I don like to gamble

Makassar Alimin 14:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
when we drop several more pips, expect to hear more of carry-trade unwinding theme again

HK Kevin 14:18 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Any news out?

madrid mm 14:17 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Haifa VS 14:16 GMT May 8, 2007

why do you need a reason ? 8-)

Haifa VS 14:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I don't understand who can play the market this way.
There is no visible reason for euro to go down...

HK Kevin 14:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax, did you act on usd/jpy?

Halifax CB 14:07 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:32 GMT May 8, 2007
Hi Alex - I doubt I'm the first one to use it (from what I've seen in the literature is used a lot in automated market making systems), and it would be hard to believe that the big quant guys don't use it, since it's very well known in tracking & analysis, and pretty simple. Of course they may have something much better :).
But as for using it - yes, I still am, but right now it's in the level of collecting data on it's behaviour and only trading small on it. I figure when CAD grinds to a halt I'll learn alot...

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:46 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan raised its stance on the U.S. equity market to overweight for the first time since April 2005 and at the same time cut its position on euro zone equities to underweight. "We believe the risk/reward skew is increasingly moving in favor of the U.S." the broker said. It believes that if the environment remains equity supportive with strong non-U.S. growth and low/stable bond yields, the U.S. should participate more fully in further equity upside due to significant exposure to overseas growth and dollar weakness benefits. "Alternatively, if global equities are buffeted the U.S. should fulfil its natural role as the large defensive safe haven," the broker said. Upside growth risks, policy direction and yield curve developments, relative currency shifts and stock rotation are expected to favor the U.S., it added.

London NYAM 13:34 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Placing stop/loss on GBP/JPY at cost. FWIW

UK Alex 13:32 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:18 GMT May 8, 2007
Still using that Kalman filter of yours? My friend did some work on it while working for Daimler-Chrysler. Think she was using it to develp a vehicle tracking system. Are you the first to use it in the field of financial markets?

HK Kevin 13:31 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, it has resumed to normal

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:25 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:18 GMT May 8, 2007 || tx 4 the info. Ditto on the AUD$ short.

Halifax CB 13:18 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
hmm, learned a little lesson on the AUDUSD last night, got stopped out). Meanwhile, $CAD is still ticking along, but it's a good time to review the chart from this week last year, when the previous trend died.

Gen dk 13:11 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 13:10 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have problem with censored chart?

hk ab 13:08 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have problem with sexy bank?

Lahore FM 13:03 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 12:59 GMT May 8, 2007
JR,this is for the futures forum.

NYC jr 12:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
HP results were much better than expected - brought stocks off the lows

CANBERRA JD 12:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
an unwind ahead of interst rate statements would be perfect in my opinion. Drag the majors with it.. Would be great.

moscow mike 12:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
IF it is not a complete flush out, then EURYEN should long form here (162.0x)

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
IGM - Japanese names report 119.50 initial area for stops

Lahore FM 12:37 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 12:32 GMT May 8, 2007
Swiss eocnomic minister said today that the Swiss Government is comfortable with the current value of the chf but the SNB will act on the exchange rate if needed.

Lahore FM 12:37 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
was stopped out of usdcad long 1.1011 at 1.1010.am long eurcad from 1.4948.no stops.

CANBERRA JD 12:23 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
It seems the chicken came before the egg, and a down trend is an uptrend. And god told me that e/u would hit 1.4 by june..

Market told me the opposite.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
EURCHF & GBPCHF are going up - not far from the recent highs..

Beijing eur 12:20 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
it seems that eur is going up, the aim is 1.3700, i think

denver jake 12:17 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
At looks as though if pound.yen takes out 238.30 it should lead to 236. Maybe tomorrow's yen manipulation congressional hearing might be the catalyst. Thoughts?

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:53 GMT //
tnx - appreciate it!

Gen dk 12:05 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:02 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
..which is why I'm flat...thetrends I've been watching since Jan 1 have had their run...if I place a bet at this point it's more likely to fail than my risk category permits. In short..I'm invested in other things that exhibit much less risk.

RIC fxq 12:00 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 11:54 GMT

just a thought here that I posted on the GVI forum several times ref: Sarkozy.

Intitally, prior to the first round vote, he was considered EUR negative since as FRA finmin he had complained about the ECB and EUR rates. Suddenly, the media spin became he was the EUro "friendly" candidate.

Perhaps some "wiser heads" saw through this media shift and feel he ISN'T as Euro friendly as had been suggested prior to round 2 vote. Just food for thought.

GVI john 11:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
..

CANBERRA JD 11:58 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Its funny how people try to follow expired trends.. In the long run they lose out..

AZUSA 4x-ed 11:56 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
CADausaurus - BoNY Chart

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Cross driven is RIGHT! I sence fire from all sides. I not eon the calendar there's a few CB rate announcements forthcoming... Fed likely won't budge (it's in a quandry as to what to do anyway), ECB's words might indicate what's in store for this summer's policy, pundits say BOE will up by a quarter point. All these events may very well be non events other than the usual hype spikes OR if a surprise occurs. The Brits are great on surprises. Am phlat until I see something I can rub WITH THE GRAIN instead of getting splinters in my hand. That means, trade only -with- the long term trend, that way if you're on the wrong side, just wait it out and add more when appropriate.

Prob is right now, USD seems to be approaching or has approached a hover point to start summer with. To me at this point FX is puzzling which is why I'm flat.

NYC Ed 11:54 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM ... I thought ? the same 1.3700 on eur/usd, especially with the NEW French President, EUR friendly administration, plus the 4 hour chart looks ripe for a re-bound. Hang in, get ready for today's ride GL GT

UK Alex 11:53 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:35 GMT May 8, 2007
Steinbrueck

ABHA FXS 11:51 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 11:25 GMT May 8, 2007
Long Limit gbpjpy 238.19 Stop 237.40 T 246.80
if move down will added Long LIMIT Order At 237.89

happy trade..

London NYAM 11:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 11:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Thats the 64 billion dollar question.
I suspect the following:
USDGBP: Down towards 1.9600 (will depend on the views after the expected rate hike and assumes only a .25% move a .50% move will likely burn cable through upside resistance to a new multiyear high.
EURUSD: Initially down but it will probably work its way up towards 13700
USDJPY: Down,down down. Although another blip up is very possible. Of course if the FED has really ugly CPI figures in hand (that we arent a party to) then USD 121 will quickly approach.

NYC Ed 11:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM .. OUT up or down ? I thought we could see 3650 this week..mmmm!!!!

CANBERRA JD 11:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I am still short on g/u and e/u.. Will continue to short all spikes.

London NYAM 11:39 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed
This week looks to be a break out week but I suspect it will be primarily cross driven.

NYC Ed 11:39 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn what do you think the rest of the day looks like, long or short. I am long, but WHO KNEW !!!

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:35 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
this EURUSD fall looks most likely from the EURGBP plunge..

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:34 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
there must be liquidation since all JPY crosses plunged..

NYC Ed 11:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Morning from US, any thoughts on eur/usd tanking ???

ABHA FXS 11:25 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Long Limit gbpjpy 238.19 Stop 237.40 T 246.80

The Netherlands Purk 11:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
CFD: certified flying dutchman.

The Netherlands Purk 11:10 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I guess this is a swissy move... so as soon as this move comes to an end loonie will go under 1,10. Even 11060 can be seen, 11126 will give me some doubt

Hallo Joure, deze vraag kun je stellen bij jouw dealer.

manchester st 11:01 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Netherlands Joure 10:57 GMT May 8, 2007
ask Purky....he is very familiar with CFDs.....Crazy, Doped , Dutchman....

Netherlands Joure 10:57 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
It is possible to work with cfd's if you open an mini share account?

Gen dk 10:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cairo mix911 10:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I am thinking of shorting eurusd at current levels for a medium term play over 1 month and accumlating more shorts untill 1.4 where my stops will be placed above.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:27 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
FT says FTSE falls on profit taking..

CANBERRA JD 09:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
still short cable, looking for sub 1.99

Como Perrie 09:26 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Copper dips as Peru strike ends; Gold stalls as a consequence

Plovidv Gotin 09:24 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
E/$ 1.3579--->1.3253(7 weeks low)

Como Perrie 09:13 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Am tempted to long the UsdCad somewhere for a test of the 1.1060/70 level into tomorrow.

Como Perrie 09:12 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
UsdCad techincally might go either ways from here. 1.11 to 1.12 or 1.0950 to 1.0880. Might be we have seen the flows move more than else.

Syd 09:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
China stocks at new high, yuan breaks key barrier

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-05/08/content_867816.htm

Como Perrie 09:09 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Not so sure the usdcad to drop clearly..might fish some lower but will wait FOMC as well more likely. So far am flat there.

Como Perrie 09:06 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Went flat EurAud shorts ..tomorrow's FOMC might cap a bit, very important the wording will be imo

Plovidv Gotin 09:00 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
9780

London NYAM 09:00 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
All good things come to those who wait. ;) Now lets see if the technicals drive this one into second gear. glgt

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:59 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:40 //
hi- still holding the short from 162.92

Plovidv Gotin 08:58 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Cable under 1.9930--->1.9180.

melbourne DC 08:47 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
18:46
*DJ China PBOC Document Circulated To Commercial Banks
*DJ China PBOC Document: Ratio Hike Effective From May 15
*DJ China PBOC Document: To Hike FX Reserve Ratio To 5% From 4%

melbourne DC 08:44 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
18:42 *DJ PBOC Document: To Hike FX Deposit Reserve Requirement Ratio

The Netherlands Purk 08:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
On e/j: just keep an eye out for the 16218...

On loonie: every uptick on usd will be small uptick for loonie, any downtick will be trippled....

London NYAM 08:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Morning.
Kapp// did you hold on to your short EUR/JPY cross?

Melbourne Qindex 08:40 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.6381 - 1.6728. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6497. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.6351. My daily cycle charts indicate that the market has a potential to tackle the lower barrier at 1.6291 // 1.6318.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.6209 - 1.6245* - 1.6263 - 1.6291 // 1.6318* - 1.6354 - 1.6372 - 1.6391* - [1.6427] - 1.6463* - 1.6482 - 1.6500 - 1.6536* // 1.6563 - 1.6591 - 1.6609* - 1.6645 ...

Nigeria Basorun 08:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Anybody have a clue on cable

The Netherlands Purk 08:26 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Think we will get a message from Oily Boily soon to tell us the told you so thing.... talking about patterns....

The Netherlands Purk 08:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Well i dont think anything is changed with the Loonie there, thought last week saw a patternchange, but no go..
see if we can get to 10970-10933.

If we get there, I am seriously thinking of the yearly range of 118-106… Well it is just a range, and just pips…
But than again, just if one starts to think like the crowd, a reversal is in the making for a few hundred pips….

Melbourne Qindex 08:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : the odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.6351

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
if we measure the up trend in EURJPY (4h):
150.75 (Mar 5) - 163.62 (May 3)
first target is 23.6% -- 160.59 / 38.2% -- 158.71

Gen dk 08:10 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin Flip 07:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
While Australia's attractive interest rates are a factor they are only one part of the carry trade story. While alot of hot money which seem concerned with intrest differntial sentiment may have exited the longer term foreign investors continue to buy on the dips in both Aussie and All Ords. One could make the argument that if the RBA don't raise due to it taking heart from a deisinflationary higher Aussie that only encouraged the equity market particpation and therefore attracting more investment flows.
Ozz and SPI weeklys

GENEVA JFO 07:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Hi guys,
Eur/usd : If 1.3595 gives up we could see 1.3525 soon this week.

Gd trds all

Como Perrie 07:47 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Randall or Martin.. do you guys see usdjpy jumping into 121

Como Perrie 07:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
A black cat crossing your path signifies that the animal is going somewhere.

Gen dk 07:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:24 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Correlating AUD's Fate More With Carry
The strength of the AUD's rebound after last week's sharp losses will probably depend very much on market appetite for carry trades. However, some warn that if Aussie rates aren't going any higher, the currency should suffer as carry trades are more correlated with futures market than current interest rate spreads.

Melbourne Qindex 07:21 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market has penetrated the lower barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.5006 // 1.5083*. The next targeting level of the weekly cycle is 1.4879. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.4953 // 1.4970*. The next two downside targeting levels are 1.4926 and 1.4970. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4981.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4904 - 1.4926* - 1.4937 - 1.4953 // 1.4970* - 1.4992 - 1.5003 - 1.5014* -[1.5036] - 1.5057* - 1.5068 - 1.5079 - 1.5101* // 1.5118 - 1.5134 - 1.5145* - 1.5167 ...

CANBERRA JD 07:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Am flat on aussie. havent seen anything convincing to go short. However made a few pipettes on e/u short and am still short g/u with a good position and stop at break even.

HK REVDAX 07:16 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
US$ vs europeans are showing signs of an upmove. Hope Wong Di Sin indicator is right on this time.

Lth th 06:55 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 02:57
A modest long possie may be worthwhile given possibilities in budget speech. The problem may be where and when to TP.

madrid mm 06:03 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Eurozone Finance ministers in Brussels Monday night greeted with new EC forecast for GDP of 2.6% for 2007, 2.5% in 2008. Comments from official imply they remain sanguine about the strength/rise in the euro (Dutch FinMin Wouter Bos quoted saying 'as long as the development is orderly and gradual, as it has been, I'm happy with it - Reuters).

Japan Econs Min Hiroko Ota says BoJ should explain its view of future price trends during government panel meeting later.

Kyodo: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe made an offering to Yasukuni Shrine in late April. Abe's action is apparently aimed at paying heed not only to Japan's neighboring countries but to the shrine as well amid a growing mood of friendship with China following Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan in April. Reuters reported PM Shinzo Abe made the offering, but he stopped short of visiting the memorial out of apparent consideration for China.

IMF says NZD is above its long run average and not supportive of the unwinding of current account gap. NZD correction might be delayed by continuing capital inflows. Sees risk of sharper NZD fall if there is sudden unwinding of carry trade. Sees NZD GDP of 2.5% in 2007, with growth likely below potential until 2009.

PBoC fixing USD/CNY mid rate at new lows of 7.6951, below the key 7.7000 handle, after it closed at 7.7039 on April 30. USD/CNY dipped further to hit all time lows of 7.6942.

Australian retail sales +1.1%m/m more than double market expectation of +0.5%m/m. Chain value retail sales came in +2.0%q/q for Q1.

Australia building approvals for March seen weaker, at -11.4%m/m vs expected -4.1%. Private sector house approvals +0.1%m/m.

Aussie and CNY stole the limelight today, with Aussie hopping to day highs of 0.8308, from 0.8255-60 after the stronger than expected retail trade, and looking forward to an upbeat and stimulative budget - election budget - for more upside, and PBoC setting USD/CNY mid rate below the key 7.70 for the first time to all time lows 7.6942.

Broad base Aussie buying after the retail sales and before the budget pushed it above key 0.8300.Demand for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY from Japanese, US funds - carry trades - though straight USD/JPY under selling pressure, hitting lows of 119.70 as stoploss hit on Tokyo, Japanese banks selling, EUR/JPY sold too, focus on the new lows in USD/CNY, b4 US subcom meeting on FX - CNY, JPY - manipulation tom. Talks of Japan postal funds, Kampo, lifers bids at 119.50-60.

EUR capped by EUR/JPY sales, eye Ecofin meet for any fresh comments on EUR after Eurogroup meet yesterday seem to be sanguine on the Euro rise, given the forecast of higher Eurozone GDP.

NZD firmer on local, US funds, French and prop desk buying, hitting stoploss on above 0.7395-00 to day highs of 0.402, though AUD/NZD buying after the strong Aust retail sales, helped to cap topside in NZD/USD, with AUD/NZD hitting highs of 1.1230-40 from pre data level of 1.1190-00. AUD/JPY hit day highs of 99.50-60 from 99.00-10.

Cable still finding offers ahead of 1.9980-2.0000, with focus on BoE MPC meet on Thurs. While USD/CAD still looking to break key 1.10 handle,with speculation of large options interest at psychological 1.1000 handle again. EUR/CHF edging back to 1.65, stops above.

Nikkei little changed -0.24% or -42.56pts at 17,627. JGBs steady after solid 10-yr auction, 10-yr yield unch at 1.645%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.790/120.14, EUR/USD 1.3595/1.3619, GBP/USD 1.9926/1.9964, USD/CHF 1.2109/1.2134, AUD/USD 0.8243/0.8308, NZD/USD 0.7360/0.7402.

madrid mm 05:46 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi,
Markets should once mark time ahead of Wednesday's FOMC statement.
currencies news Click here

Syd 05:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Aussie PM On Key Message - Fear Of Unions

Australia PM Howard outlines what will be a key government message in buildup to general election expected late 2007: "if we lose, for the first time since Federation, every government in Australia will be Labor and they will be dominated by the trade unions," he tells meeting of government legislators. Tells Opposition leader Rudd in parliament that new Labor Party workplace policy will hand to trade unions control of labor laws, new Labor policy will strip away flexibility in current law; asserts business says "this is the same old Labor Party, the mob that always caves into the union bosses." Labor-bashing exercise no real surprise as conservative government embarks on efforts to win upcoming elections.

HK REVDAX 05:10 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 05:06//i am afraid i am not a very good person to answer the question of profit target. sorry.

Makassar Alimin 05:06 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 05:03 GMT May 8, 2007

kindly share your target, should it go in your direction?

HK REVDAX 05:03 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 04:53//Enough pips to make a trade.

CANBERRA JD 04:58 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
I am short gbp/usd, with target 1.9900

Makassar Alimin 04:53 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 04:41 GMT May 8, 2007

not so sure about that either, usdjpy just printed 3-day low, bounce now is on the way after hitting some emas on hourly,4-hourly and daily chart but not sure how strong it would be

hk ab 04:42 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
short half a/j 99.50 another entry near the 100 full marks...

HK REVDAX 04:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:38 //I am not sure about $/CAD but $/JY seems to have given out a green light to go up...imo

Melbourne Qindex 04:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.0866 - 1.1118 (May 07 - May 11). The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.0950 - 1.1034. The daily cycle indicates that the downside targeting points are 1.0958 and 1.0996.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0902 - 1.0921* - 1.0930 - 1.0944 // 1.0958* - 1.0977 - 1.0986 - 1.0996* - [1.1015] - 1.1033* - 1.1043 - 1.1052 - 1.1071* // 1.1085 - 1.1099 - 1.1109* - 1.1127 ...

USA BAY 04:38 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX,

Looking at usd/cad that is debatable. I see usd weakness to continue and usd/jpy to decline further to 119.20/30 imvvvvho.

HK REVDAX 04:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
The occult oracle from Wong Di Sin says that US$ is going to be an upday today. Disagreement???

Syd 04:05 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Budget 'leaked to Greens'
The Federal Government will spend nearly $20 billion over the next five years on environmental measures, according to the Australian Greens.

According to a detailed document the Greens have received, $2.4 billion of the $10 billion water plan has been allocated over the next four years. This includes more than $900 million to buy back water licences and more than $1 billion to fund more efficient water infrastructure.

The document also confirm the solar rebate program will be extended for five years at a cost of about $150 million.

Syd 03:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
WSJ(5/8) UPDATE: Qantas's Suitors Abandon Bid
SYDNEY, Australia -- The consortium bidding 11 billion Australian dollars (US$9.08 billion) for Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd. Tuesday conceded that its bid for the airline had failed, amid uncertainty over the exact stake it held in Qantas at last Friday's deadline.

Syd 03:28 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Tuesday that he won't comment on daily foreign exchange moves.

"It is my policy that I won't make comment on daily moves of currencies," Omi told a regular press conference when asked by the recent weakening of the yen.

Melbourne Qindex 03:15 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.8107 - 0.8366. The critical level is located at [0.8204] - 0.8237. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading the critical level at 0.8237. After anchoring itself at 0.8302 the market will head for the next quantized level at 0.8366. A barrier is located at 0.8317.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8191 - 0.8208* - 0.8216 - 0.8229 // 0.8242* - 0.8259 - 0.8267 - 0.8276* - [0.8292] - 0.8309* - 0.8318 - 0.8326 - 0.8343* // 0.8356 - 0.8369 - 0.8377* - 0.8394 ...

CANBERRA JD 02:57 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
From here the aussie has to get through a fair few strong res points... I cannot see it going too far, but we need a very large push down to maintain the downwards bias..

Considering a short when i see a stop in the news rally.

Melbourne Qindex 02:44 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The upside targeting point is 0.8343.

Mtl JP 02:27 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:46 -- hahaha, Zhou Xiaochuan.. concerned about bubbles ..in the stock market. Apparently Zhou does not see eye to eye with “You can’t take administrative measures to change people’s behaviour. The market is based on people’s behaviour. Investors will have to learn their own lessons.” - Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress earlier this year.

Although supposedly "Then stock market is ultimately a chart of local currency losing its purchasing power..", there may be times "When the dust is settled one day,some folks will make millions writing about mania too..I call this " Great Stock Revolution of the masses"..Revolution is not a sunday picnic.." for which maybe a good and prudent idea would be to concider some remote mountain-cave hidout...

Syd 02:04 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Qantas shares dip as bid fails
QANTAS shares fell 16c as they resumed trading this morning after bidders Airline partners Australian finally killed off its $11.1 billion bid for the airline.The consortium said it had decided not to pursue a legal loophole because of the time it would take for the issue to be litigated as the bid should be treated as having lapsed last Friday.

Syd 01:52 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK:Aussie Retail Sales Strong But Bldg Approvals Fall

Syd 01:50 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Beware of stock frenzy in Shanghai
When the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges resume today after the week-long holidays, key indexes may hit record highs. The Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3,841 on April 30, is likely to break the 4,000 mark today, analysts predict. Rising share prices on the white-hot markets will further fuel the stock frenzy. In the first quarter of this year, 4.78 million stock accounts were added on the two exchanges, dwarfing the 3.08 million new accounts for the whole of 2005. In the first 27 days of April alone, some 4.5 million new accounts were added, many of them were small investors. College students, many of whom have little or no income, have also become players. Instead of traveling to scenic resorts, many investors and potential market players in Shanghai and elsewhere spent the May Day holiday buying books on stock investment and learning tricks of the trade. Improved company performance, renminbi appreciation and the listing of some blue-chip stocks have contributed to the current bullish run. But some analysts say excessive liquidity on the market poses a risk. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of many Chinese stocks is much higher than those in mature overseas markets. Still, many investors believe the market will only go up. Domestic media outlets and market experts have been uncharacteristically quiet about the market's recent run.
However, foreign media and experts are spooked by the skyrocketing share prices on the mainland and warn of the bloating bubble. It was urgent to shout out a May Day warning to the hundreds of millions of Chinese stock investors. Any possible damage later on would have been smaller had this been done sooner.
(China Daily 05/08/2007 page13)

Syd 01:46 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Zhou concerned about stock bubbles
By Hong Guan (China Daily)

There is still room to raise reserve requirements for banks after previous hikes failed to slow lending and inflation, the central bank governor has said.

Zhou Xiaochuan also said inflation is manageable but acknowledged he was concerned about bubbles building in the stock market.

KL Samuel 01:41 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Euro/USD is showing consolidation and accumulation with resistance level of 1.3623 and support level of 1.3581. With the slow downtrend stochastic movement, it is very unlikely that it may go that far to 1.3550. However, keep the bearing trend. If it breaks the 1.3581 support level, most likely it will continue to be bearish to the next support level

Syd 01:36 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Australian Mar Bldg Approvals Fall 11.4% Vs Feb
The total number of Australian houses and apartments approved for construction fell a seasonally adjusted 11.4% in March from February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.
Economists had expected on average that total residential building approvals fell 4.2% from the month before.

Syd 01:33 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Australian Mar Pvt-Sector House Approvals +0.1% On Mo
Australian Mar Residential Bldg Approvals -11.4% On Mo
Australian 1Q Retail Sales +2.0% Vs +1.7% Consensus

Syd 01:19 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Transport Min: Qantas Must Comply With Sales Act

NY Ed 00:14 GMT May 8, 2007 Reply   
Question ALL, was it lack of liquidity today, Holiday, that did not move euro? and does anyone think eur/usd can go to 1.3650 +/- Tueday?? GL GT