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Forex Forum Archive for 05/09/2007

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Gen dk 23:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
WSJ Fed watcher Greg Ip
Fed Shows Continued Wariness On Inflation

Fed statement gives no sign it is inching toward interest rate cut, says WSJ Fed watcher Greg Ip; FOMC has said its "predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate." Some on Wall Street had expected Fed to acknowledge core inflation - which excludes food and energy - declined in March, after ticking higher in January, February; still, statement said "core inflation remains somewhat elevated," instead of saying, as it did in March, "recent readings" on inflation were somewhat elevated. Wording suggests Fed has looked through monthly fluctuations in inflation, focused on fact it has been at or above 2% for some years now, says Ip; while officials have no agreed-on target, most consider 2% or lower to be preferable. Adds statement reinforces other messages from policy makers that Fed's on hold for foreseeable future

Global-View Research 21:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:

Euro: Watching for a Change in ECB Trichet's Comments

LKWD JJ 20:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
heres a new twist on an old phrase

Long-Term Capital's Rosenfeld Starts Hedge Fund, Person Says
By Jenny Strasburg
May 9 (Bloomberg
Long-Term Capital required a $3.5 billion bailout from the world's biggest securities firms and banks that was orchestrated by the New York Federal Reserve Bank in 1998 after $4 billion of losses. Rosenfeld was one of the original partners at Long-Term Capital with John Meriwether, his former boss at New York-based investment bank Salomon Inc
-----------------------------------------------------------
past performance is not indicative of future results.

LKWD JJ 20:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 19:57 GMT May 9, 2007
so what do you think? gbp 198? $Y 122? chf1.23? euro 1.33?

UK Alex 19:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:52 GMT May 9, 2007
Treasury's have given up some of their recent gains, so don't be too bearish.

Delray beach RMN 19:53 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
besides your typical usd index bounce which we all know the Fed will not let break thru significant levels unharmed, If we saw the drop in cross yen traded currencies in Febuary, and you have read my post I would say it says it all buy the yen against most major pairs for a 3 month play!

LKWD JJ 19:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
is the knee jerk reaction over yet? this is not exactly a bull usd.

Mtl JP 19:48 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
RMN 19:39 / sooooo.. besides a historical re-hash that anyone not living under a rock would have already seen, do u see any redeeming value in it that would generate some - if so, what - probability trade from it ?

Delray beach RMN 19:39 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
While everyone else's eyes have been focused on the central banks and a rangebound currency market, we've been watching the Chinese equity bubble inflate to extreme proportions. The Shanghai and Shenzen stock indices have been increasing at an exponential rate over the last few weeks and charts show prices are essentially vertical, which is when such price advances typically terminate. Recall that the end of February carry-trade meltdown was putatively initiated by 9-10% declines in the Chinese stock markets, that then triggered position liquidiations in multiple markets, sending gold ,oil and equity markets sharply lower. All the ingredients appear to be in place now, with oil prices down relatively sharply on higher inventories, and gold prices looking to have made a double top below psychological resistance at $700/oz. As for the Chinese stock market itself, the week began with Chinese PBOC chief Zhou on Monday warning that the the current Chinese equity market looks like a bubble. There might have been a sizeable reaction in the Chinese market, except it was still closed for holidays. On Tuesday, the Chinese markets gapped higher to open, creating cloud cover in candlestick terms. And Wednesday's price action generated very clear hanging man candles suggesting the uptrend is in serious trouble. While it's rare for events to happen exactly the same way twice, be on guard for a sharp meltdown in equities tonight, led by China, and spilling into other hot-money trades (e.g. gold, other metals, global equities) funded by carry trades, provoking another round of carry-trade unwinding.-- BD

Mtl JP 19:28 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS REPORTED
Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
30-Apr-07 KOVACEVICH RICHARD M
Officer 95,000 Indirect Sale at $36.15 - $36.17 per share. $3,435,0002 - link

madrid mm 19:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Tales From The Trenches: A Simple Bollinger Band Strategy
Click here

madrid mm 19:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
do they know something we do not ?

Lewis isn't the only U.S. bank executive who expects that credit conditions will change. Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer Richard Kovacevich said in December that ``I am not a forecaster of the future; I'm a historian. And history says this will blow up. It always has. And there will be some blood on the street.''

Click here

USA BAY 19:18 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Even if usd/cad rises, 1.1095 should cap it and sell at 1.1095 tp 1.10 imvvvvho.

Geneva 19:14 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Dollar index drop on Monthly charts look corrective to me!
A strong rally is on the card. The combination of extreme negative sentiment, a future US pull back fro Iraq and a Future pull back of Mr. Bush from the white house will be very painfull for dollar bears!-

jkt-aye 19:10 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, i'm on ... don't let me dooown. lol

CANBERRA JD 19:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the USD surge has finished... :( The fat lady has song imho.

USA Zeus 19:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
LOL- Ask not what CAD can do for you but.....

USD/CAD ready to rise from 1.1060 again.

Geneva 19:02 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 19:00 GMT May 9, 2007

Tommorow anther day! I sell Skekel.

rag bar 19:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 18:57 GMT May 9, 2007
Buy USD sell Israeli Skekel!

the Israeli shekel looks like the CAD these days...

Geneva 18:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Buy USD sell Israeli Skekel!

UK Alex 18:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 18:55 GMT May 9, 2007
Better prospects for the economy are just around the corner. That's what stocks are telling us.

CANBERRA JD 18:55 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
LOL.... I hope im thinking the correct thing when translating that.

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:55 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:50 GMT May 9, 2007 || Ask not what the bonds can do for you...

Vienna GD 18:55 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007
iS gold telling us something ?

No not gold ... but anything else!

UK Alex 18:55 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars At BRL2.0215

Makassar Alimin 18:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
dont like losing on a day like this, stop to 1.9961, off to sleep, see you guys tomorrow

The Netherlands Purk 18:53 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:50 GMT May 9, 2007

So was my little friend when i was in the BAJA beach club in the weekend...

Mtl JP 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Delray beach RMN 18:47, 1.3505ish seems to be important.

madrid mm 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
iS gold telling us something ?

CANBERRA JD 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Delray beach, its in a downtrend? You want it to go up?

The Netherlands Purk 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Better look at swissy, it has been the leading indicator for days, and it will have to go above 122 to be interesting.
Took some profit on the loonert longs. Have to eat as well sometimes....

madrid mm 18:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
i gold telling us something ?

USA Zeus 18:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
The USD camp will grow and grow...

hk ab 18:48 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
It's a day of dlr index reversal?
look at yen....

Delray beach RMN 18:47 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have a significant trend reversal level for Eur/usd tks

Makassar Alimin 18:45 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:43 GMT May 9, 2007

thanks JP, was just lucky i guess

Mtl JP 18:43 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
one great shout Alimin 18:00.

CANBERRA JD 18:40 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
*Puts concrete on the feet of g/u and makes him go swimming with the fishes*

madrid mm 18:40 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 18:27 GMT May 9, 2007

how would you rate a "cut" ? HUGE SURPRISE ? armageddon in the making ? 8-)

melbourne DC 18:39 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 18:12 GMT May 9, 2007
u r rite wrt maintain strong focus on inflation. i was totally out on this one in that they obviously not much acknowldgement of what i might as inflation friendly data, with ben consistent line that h2 will see pick up.

madrid mm 18:35 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:25 GMT May 9, 2007
lol

CANBERRA JD 18:34 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Would like to see below 9900 tonight

HK Kevin 18:29 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 18:20 GMT, also short small Cable at 1.9952 a few minutes ago

hk ab 18:29 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
cad seems finding new high again... can it close under the magic 5 dma.....

Sofia mik 18:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   

tomorrow:
BoE -UNCH-big surprise

ECB-UNCH -

Big SurpriSe

CANBERRA JD 18:26 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I wonder who the pound buyers are right now...Either news spike profit takers, or pound buyers?

PAR 18:25 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
As M. Friedman said, better to replace central banks by computers. Saves money and more predictable .

CANBERRA JD 18:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Welll, I officially hate my broker now. Give me 9 pip spread when i am in.. And dont fix spread until its too late :(

Makassar Alimin 18:20 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
locking pips for gbpusd short, stop at BE now, autopilot on :)

Como Perrie 18:20 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I'll do nothing. No scalps in this stop fishing from me, I'll see tom ECB and BOE and switch off. Nite

Como Perrie 18:19 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Exactly same statment as previous

CANBERRA JD 18:18 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Hmmmmm question now is will people take profit?

PAR 18:18 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Buy USDJPY on break of 120.00 .Target 121.00 .

Syd 18:17 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
In leaving rates steady, the FOMC leaves inflation as its key risk

Como Perrie 18:17 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
More or less a no event

Como Perrie 18:17 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Mostly as Yellen said coupla weeks ago

Como Perrie 18:16 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Unchangeged

Sofia mik 18:15 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
unch

Halifax CB 18:13 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 17:41 GMT May 9, 2007
Here's a plot of Usdcad from the two time periods on the 4-hourlies - the current with the candles and last year's in yellow (give or take a few days shift, had to ballpark the offset in my head..)...
Chart

Mtl JP 18:13 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
for the record, March 21, 2007

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
- empahisis added

CANBERRA JD 18:13 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
all i want to see is the V word :D.. GO V word.. Give me a V.!!!!

RIC fxq 18:12 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 18:07

if the FOMC runs true to form, they will focus what THEY believe are critical data elements, not what fx traders have deemed and believe are important hence no change in posture IMO but we shall see in less than four minutes

melbourne DC 18:07 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Fomc statement may be a summary of recent data, hence 'sounding dovish'. big question is whether key phrase reinserted or something new.

The Netherlands Purk 18:07 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I want to drive a Trabant with a t5 850 block in it,but it does not fit....

Como Perrie 18:05 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I think in some years we will have just some 5 to 10 car companies world wide. 10 is very optimistic

CANBERRA JD 18:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Well, I drive a mazda 6.. And I know that volvos arent as comfortable, but are "Safer" and probably have a bit better handling.

CANBERRA JD 18:02 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
early to call that isnt it?

The Netherlands Purk 18:01 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Volvo, Volvo, where did i hear that word before... Ford owns Volvo ah. Drive a Volvo, than a Ford, you will be surprised, and so says an ex salesman of Volvo's.

Como Perrie 18:01 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   

CANBERRA JD 17:59 GMT May 9, 2007

They used too, but nowadays standards have worsen alot for several reasons. Lower quality raw materials, productions depleted in low cost low quality workers countries etc. Plus mergings o.c.

Makassar Alimin 18:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:42 GMT May 9, 2007

short gbpusd 1.9970 with stop 2.0010, target 1.98xx

CANBERRA JD 17:59 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
volvo are said to be the safest cars in the world.

PAR 17:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Saab and Volvo as good as GM and Ford .

CANBERRA JD 17:56 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I smell hawkish.. Go bernake you can do it!

Como Perrie 17:55 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Not sure about Bernanke. Wording play, some squeezing a change in rates a surprise. As we have been talking last week, the chances for a double hike from the Swiss central bank by 0.5 within mid june are near a must.

Fairfield JC 17:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 17:49 GMT May 9, 2007

i am not quite sure what you are saying, and I dont know how Saab and Volvo are rated. I know they are high in the safety department though.

Livingston nh 17:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
JC - as in most things "spin" is the headline -- GM and Ford quality (as most "commodity" producers) is as good as any -- see if the Japanese can compete w/ the Chinese imports into Japan (protectionism?) // How are Volvo and Saab rated?

Como Perrie 17:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
With gasoline at 5 bucks next years somewhere I do not care much anymore about cars. Also cars are investment with a total loosing capital, just the opposite of investing. So far previous was meant to a very basic school call from GM; if he would have said that 15 years ago when the car industry was flourishing other thing...now useless rethorics

PAR 17:42 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
What do you thaink about a German star .

Mtl JP 17:42 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
expect a post FOMC zzz or an initiation of new market possies ?

anyone want to postulate a trade strategy AHEAD of FOMC: possible catalyst in euryen pair ? open to ideas.

CANBERRA JD 17:41 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:27 GMT May 9, 2007
Halifax CB 16:21 GMT May 9, 2007
Agree- As posted some time earlier this looks like a somewhat familiar patterns as seen last year at this time.
--------------------------------------------------
I see nothing similar this time last year, as to what is happening now....

Fairfield JC 17:40 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Lexus, Toyota, Hyundai, Honda......Hello!!!! the first two n this list are in the top ratings for quality not GM or Ford!!! Hahah, and I am NOT trying to be insulting here either.

Fairfield JC 17:38 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 17:26 GMT May 9, 2007
"Quality of japanese cars is no better than of US cars"

PAR - what kind of car do you drive ?

yeah what car do you drive? US cars are the worst.....worst!!!!!! No comparison.....

Mtl JP 17:35 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:18, the Chinese CB has been clearly (as anything Chinese can be clear) up front about market participation via a fund it said it is intilay funding with 300 bios and possibly adding to it additional possible excess funds over its 1.2 trillion reserve mountain.

madrid mm 17:30 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
a Ford Corrolla beetle LOL

nj jf 17:26 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
"Quality of japanese cars is no better than of US cars"

PAR - what kind of car do you drive ?

PAR 17:18 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
In comparison to Japan the Chinese forex policy is very transparant and more in line with economic fundamentals. Japan keeps creating huge current account surpluses thanks to dirty floating of its currency .

hk ab 17:14 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR, I almost short yen and yen pairs.... but if you are here, usually the yen will be weakened.

PAR 17:06 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Japanese deflation is a fairy tale caused by constant manipulation and revisions of japanese inflation index baskets. Quality of japanese cars is no better than of US cars but thanks to the weak yen the japanese publicity and warranty budgets are gigantic .

Como Perrie 16:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Btw rumors around that the Iranian president will resign soon.

Como Perrie 16:51 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:33 GMT May 9, 2007
It is some 15 years they do that. No surprise GM is going that bad with such managers.

dc CB 16:48 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
two big data days for CAD:
Thurs: New house Price Index. Merch. Trade Balance.
Fri: Employment

hk ab 16:43 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
tonight close is very impt to dlr/cad

Sofia mik 16:37 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:11

re uscad;now Im on opposite side -cad/usd 0.85/81
glgt

Halifax CB 16:32 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:27 GMT May 9, 2007
Well, if I threw my entire stake into $Cad longs, with a bit of luck I could probably push it up 0.00000000001 pip. 'Fraid you'll have to do the rest :)

USA Zeus 16:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:21 GMT May 9, 2007
Agree- As posted some time earlier this looks like a somewhat familiar patterns as seen last year at this time. This 1.1060 is getting a bit old. We have seen it since April. Let's get some volatility pumped into this thing!
GL GT! :-)

Halifax CB 16:21 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:11 GMT May 9, 2007
Could be right; it's fascinating how much this week looks like the final week of last year's big run down (which ended right around this time last year, and was followed by a lot of bouncing around, and back to $CAD as normal...). Good time to be out, and waiting, I still wouldn't go long on it...

RIC fxq 16:16 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
fwiw from Briefing:

Still Here : The market has been putting some small pressure on prices as trade looks out to the rate commentary & any & all hints it may offer for policy plans down the road. It's a given that the policy-posse will stick to its guns on its concern with inflation (smokescreen or not) but the market is more interested in what it may dig out from under the Fed's couch cushions, the gritty details or subtle hints that maybe growth, housing or employment is a growing concern. The trade has been tethered to an extreme tight range & that should change once the word is out, although an unchanged statement will play to both bond bulls & bears in its latest interpretation. Things are undoubtedly dull when the ever excitable world of foreign exchange has managed to snare the euro & yen in a 30 pip range on the session.

lkwd jj 16:12 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
beep!! beep!! tooting my own horn!!! out @ 70
======================
jj16:41 GMT May 8, 2007
stepping back for a moment. the fed will not move on rates and the boe will, the only question remains how much. @ 1.99 the mkt is not expecting a 50 pt hike. the 20ma daily is @19902. long here with 30 pip stop is my trade

USA Zeus 16:11 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
No hurricanes or human tragedy necessary.
USD/CAD 1.13-15 very real possibility soon.

GENEVA DS 16:11 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
if it is not ALCOA... then probably Warren Buffet or some chinese will buy anyway shares or whole company of Alcan and many others in Canada.... USDCAD 1.00 and then 0.85 next few month and years... no change of trend...

Halifax CB 16:08 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 15:46 GMT May 9, 2007
Halifax CB 13:52
I mean driver for usdcad is ALCOA-ALcan ; 27bln
if no deal 1.16 again soon



Since early March? (that's how long this drop has been going on for....). Could be, I suppose, I don't follow business news very much. Not that I mind, I like it when $Cad bounces around alot. Maybe we'll get some good hurricanes this summer to liven things up...

hk ab 15:53 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, Future forum. The one without handle.

Mtl JP 15:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
That is ok Zeus 14:52. Basicaly what matters to me is purchasing power, not nominal value.

dc CB 15:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
from Briefing.com

11:22 AL Alcan drops on concerns Canadian government would block any takeover (79.07 -1.21)

madrid mm 15:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Lagos o.o 14:03 GMT May 9, 2007

Easy answer really !!! 8-)

In trading, as well as in gambling, there are two groups of people -- the pros and the amateurs.

You need to understand that there are indeed people who make a living gambling.

Sofia mik 15:46 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:52
I mean driver for usdcad is ALCOA-ALcan ; 27bln
if no deal 1.16 again soon

UK Alex 15:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
General Motors Chief Economist G. Mustafa Mohatarem, speaking Wednesday at a congressional hearing on allegations China and Japan manipulate their currencies to keep them weak and make exports cheaper abroad, said "Japan's policies provided anywhere from a $2,000 to $14,000 cash windfall for each of the 2.2 million vehicles Japan's automakers exported to the U.S. in 2006." This has contributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. auto industry, he told lawmakers, according to a statement from the Auto Trade Policy Council. Recently, the dollar was weaker against the yen from day-earlier numbers Y119.76 from Y119.96 late Tuesday, according to EBS.

HK Kevin 15:31 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, hi. Where is nt?

hk ab 15:24 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
close dlr/cad short @1,1065.

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Any views on EUR/GBP? Thinking of going long at 6770.

USA Zeus 14:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:49 GMT May 9, 2007
Not sure what your point is- still. Are you supposing that I believe the US is immune to inflation? Canadia, Zimbabwe are no exception.


DOW 25k by the end of 2010. Multiyear USD strength cycle likely to begin this year.

Como Perrie 14:37 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
no big change on the cad selling reprise as the market is taking a nap into FOMC.... so will i zzzzzzzzz

Como Perrie 14:34 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
5.6 mios..much above expectations which where in the range of 2 to lower

Como Perrie 14:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
oil inventories are positive

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - wealth of viewpoints is always appreciated!

London NYAM 14:23 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Kap// Dont know if i can answer but i would comment that Bull traps almost hint at conspiracy in the market. Its probably new information and/or overstretched market participation in a trend that is losing steam that will ocnstitute a failure to resume trend. The clue in EW is that the sub waves are usually divisible by three rather than 5. But that probably doesnt help.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
The short squeeze in [USD/CAD] petered out into the 1.1100 area as we suspected (11:20GMT) and at the time of expiry, Funds was pretty much clinging to the 1.1050 strike. A German bank was a seller earlier ahead of 1.11, while two US institutions have been heavy sellers out of New York. Some of the selling interests are said to be on behalf of funds who are positioning/betting on the potential multi billion Cad positive Alcoa/Alcan deal going through. Contacts also note that those models who initiated fresh longs on the 1.1075/80 break earlier have left fairly tight stops, reportedly into the 1.1020/25 zone.

UK Alex 14:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:07 GMT May 9, 2007
Not a good time to call for further yen weakness just as more pressure is being heaped on the Chinese for the yuan to appreciate more quickly. BoNY have been keeping an interesting diary of who said what and when they said it.

Como Perrie 14:18 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Qatar Oil Min. says global oil market saturated. Let's see the oil report. gl

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:16 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 13:56 //
hi - I know it's silly but how can one looking at move in GBPUSD discern if this is a trend to 2+ or a bull trap?

NYC 14:12 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
DS. Japanese investors still seem to be searching abroad for yield but question is whether current levels are a deterrent or whether they matter??

GENEVA DS 14:07 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
very strange feeling.. but it looks like , that the whole planet is looking for reversal in EURJPY , USDJPY , GBP JPY and EURCHF.... how about 170 EURJPY, 125 USDJPY , 255 GBPJPY and 17500 EURCHF... very real possibilty... and most would be again wrong footet.... BOJ and KAMPO and SNB probably the only ones long carry trade... gl gt

Lagos o.o 14:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I`m new in this market and i just don`t see how i can trade without thinking i`m gambling

madrid mm 14:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
NYMEX to Introduce Energy & Metals Options Trading on CME GLOBEX.
Launch date is June 24 (for trade date June 25).

NYMEX metals and energy futures currently trade side-by-side: with open outcry trading taking place on the floor in New York and the electronic platform executions handled via the CME's GLOBEX platform. But now the NYMEX will extend this to their options on: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Silver. Starting June 24 (for June 25 trade date) options on these 4 futures contracts will be available for trading on CME GLOBEX from 6:00 PM Sundays through 5:15 PM Fridays (New York time); with a 45 minute break between 5:15 PM and 6:00 PM.

The strike intervals will be the same as the floor traded options contracts. To ensure orderly exercise procedures, no expiring options will be accepted for trading after the close of open outcry trading on the day of expiration.
For more information, go to Click here

UK Alex 13:59 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:47 GMT May 9, 2007
That's not exactly what he said. He was being diplomatic in his choice of words by calling it misalignment rather than manipulation.

It is possible to determine whether a currency is misaligned or manipulated, but the judgment should be based on a variety of economic models.

London NYAM 13:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY:119.95 post 120 spike but still room for more before we go down
GBPUSD: 1.9915 Similar story except for GBP strengthshould help mount to near or above the 1.9990
cross: room to move to 239.25-35 but pressure should kick in for the reversal.
Its one thing to get this right, quite another for it to happen so quickly.
Limit short order filled at GBPJPY 239.25

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:56 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY //

ooo yes - tnx - was reading the vols explanations and kinda missed it...

tokyo ginko 13:56 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
hope onboard the US$ train..

madrid mm 13:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
previous email, refer to PAR

madrid mm 13:53 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
...but not impossible .

Where There’s a Will, There’s Not Always a Way.....8-)

Halifax CB 13:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
well, shoot, $CAD barely scratched the 2-sigma line. (red lines)..so AFAICS, the trends still in place, but slowed a little.
Chart
A jump to the mid 1.1100's might change things a bit, as would a failure to reach at least close to 1.100 before gettting back to the 1.1090 area.

PAR 13:47 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Currency manipulation just as insider trading difficult to prove .

Spotforex NY 13:43 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
However, a US Tsy official just made some yen comments that does not relfect EU's Junckers new tone....

Spotforex NY 13:41 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
sofia,

posted in GVI earlier

Spotforex NY 13:14 GMT May 9, 2007
EU's Juncker on the wires...seems a bit different tone in his use of words......FX entering a phase where the use of a verb is analyzed..in this case strong vs stronger

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:39 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EU's [JUNCKER]'s is taking a slightly different tack on fx, saying that the Yen is not reflecting fundamentals, and that a further Euro rise could hurt the export sector. Whilst this should not surprise anyone, the slight change in tack could be telling to a market that is already predisposed towards some pre FOMC position adjustment. Eur/Yen is modestly lower on Juncker's comments, and we may see a test of bids through 162.00-10. Any sustained break seems an unlikely proposition at this point. IGM

anyone has this info on other newsfeed? seems they posted it with a little timelag..

slv sam 13:31 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp is good short when at 2.006 imo!GT

CANBERRA JD 13:29 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Speculators beware!

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
London dlrcad 1.1095. NY opened 1.1082, fwiw.

HK Kevin 13:25 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:38 GMT May 8, 2007
USD/CAD intraday resistance at 1.1059, next 1.1090
Hope you have took profit.

Melbourne Qindex 13:15 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle)
: The market has penetrated the lower barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.5006 // 1.5083*. The next targeting level of the weekly cycle is 1.4879. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.4930 // 1.4945*.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4885 - 1.4905* - 1.4915 - 1.4930 // 1.4945* - 1.4964 - 1.4974 - 1.4984* - [1.5004] - 1.5023* - 1.5033 - 1.5043 - 1.5063* // 1.5078 - 1.5093 - 1.5102* - 1.5122 ...

The Netherlands Purk 13:07 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Well loonie players will try and do their best to catch that 11009 again.

Bugger: it looks like showtime to me: 16170 next.... spoily boily is 16270...

moscow mike 13:02 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
interesting resistance level on cable is 9973

Melbourne Qindex 13:02 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD (Weekly Cycle)
: The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.6381 - 1.6728. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6497. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.6351. My daily cycle charts indicate that the market has a potential to tackle the lower barrier at 1.6288*.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.6046 - 1.6081* - 1.6098 - 1.6124 // 1.6150* - 1.6184 - 1.6202 - 1.6219* - [1.6254] - 1.6288* - 1.6306 - 1.6323 - 1.6357* // 1.6383 - 1.6409 - 1.6427* - 1.6461 ...

slv sam 12:58 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd to 2.0050/60 today or tomorrow imho!GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:49 //
very nice quote... I remember bc said many times we are now in a commodity bull cycle - what you posted relates very good to that..

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:46 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I'd say crossess are pretty active:
GBPJPY is making a reversal;
EURJPY is trying a breakout of the tiny triangle (pennant on hourly)consolidation

Melbourne Qindex 12:42 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.8107 - 0.8366. The critical level is located at [0.8204] - 0.8237. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading the critical level at 0.8237. The daily cycle charts indicate that the market has a potential to tackle the target at 0.8310.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8214 - 0.8230* - 0.8238 - 0.8250 // 0.8263* - 0.8279 - 0.8287 - 0.8295* - [0.8312] - 0.8328* - 0.8336 - 0.8344 - 0.8360* // 0.8373 - 0.8385 - 0.8393* - 0.8409 ...

slv sam 12:37 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 11:58 GMT /
yes but they do not hear you!GT

HK REVDAX 12:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Why is the mkt so quiet?

Melbourne Qindex 12:17 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.0866 - 1.1118 (May 07 - May 11). The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.0950* - 1.1034* - 1.1118*. The upper barrier of the daily cycle is located at 1.1092 // 1.1106.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0922 - 1.0941* - 1.0951 - 1.0965 // 1.0979* - 1.0998 - 1.1007 - 1.1017* - [1.1036] - 1.1054* - 1.1064 - 1.1073 - 1.1092* // 1.1106 - 1.1121 - 1.1130* - 1.1149 ...

HK REVDAX 11:58 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Is anyone selling $/JY right at this moment?

London NYAM 11:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
JP// Then DOW 25,000 would be roughly EURUSD 2.750 AND USDJPY @ 35.00 Ouch!

GVI john 11:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3542	119.94	1.2175	1.9888	1.1047	0.8282	163.42
High	1.3622	120.14	1.2197	1.9962	1.1059	0.8309	163.38
Low	1.3515	119.52	1.2104	1.9681	1.1007	0.8244	161.91
05/08/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	05/08/2007					
5 day 	1.3579	120.14	1.2140	1.9905	1.1058	0.8248	163.33
10 day	1.3604	119.79	1.2110	1.9941	1.1100	0.8273	163.05
20 day 	1.3578	119.41	1.2107	1.9944	1.1199	0.8298	162.11
50 day 	1.3399	118.38	1.2152	1.9700	1.1471	0.8111	158.62
100 day	1.3221	119.30	1.2269	1.9642	1.1593	0.7971	157.72
200 day	1.3027	118.27	1.2321	1.9336	1.1440	0.7811	154.08

Mtl JP 11:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 23:15 / DJ to 25K by 2010 and strong dollar:

I was saved effort by someone who refered me this observation:

"Despite its recent eclipse of 13,000 the Dow now buys 30% fewer euros than it did then back in 2000 when it was priced at approximately 11,500. It also buys 35% fewer gallons of milk, 40% fewer bushels of corn or wheat, 65% fewer ounces of silver, 70% fewer barrels of oil, 80% fewer pounds of copper, and 90% fewer pounds of uranium. Try figuring what the Dow will buy in terms of other necessities, such as housing, insurance, college tuition or hospitalization. Any way you measure it, the Dow is worth far less today then it was in January of 2000.

Back in 1980 one Zimbabwe dollar was worth more than one U.S. dollar. Therefore a billionaire in Zimbabwe was also a billionaire in America . Today, almost everyone in Zimbabwe is a billionaire yet few of them can afford a pack of chewing gum. Do you think that anyone invested in the Zimbabwean stock market these past 30 years cares how many record highs that market has made?"
- Peter Schiff

Apparently even a carton of eggs beat the stockmarket "gains".

And to think that stocks gains are capital-gains taxed...

madrid mm 11:31 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet arrives in Dublin today to signal he'll increase interest rates to a six-year high, putting the brakes on Ireland's property boom.

../..This is a long way from the glory days of the property boom in both countries. Irish house prices climbed 335 percent from 1995 to 2005, the most among 18 countries surveyed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Prices in Spain rose 169 percent during the same period, while in Germany, Europe's largest economy, the cost of homes stagnated.Click here

GVI john 11:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

dc CB 11:02 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Reuters reports Warren Buffet is confident that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) can conclude several large takeovers soon, Buffett told Swiss newspaper Finanz und Wirtschaft in an interview on Wednesday. "We are primarily interested in larger takeovers. I'd happily buy something in the area of $5-$20 bln, but unfortunately targets with potential are rare. I'm confident that we are going to be able to conclude several larger transactions soon,'' he told the newspaper. Buffett said insurance and investment group Berkshire, which he heads, was not as active in the currency markets as it once was. "Today, we're only actively buying one currency. You'll find out in one year which one it was,'' he said.

HK REVDAX 11:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 10:49 //What has this piece of news got to do with FX moves of the globe?

Como Perrie 10:51 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
I'll let this attempt of stop fishings off. Will refocus on market later on with a minor check up into energy data release 10.30 east and FOMC this late. Most are for a no change, coupla of them for a lowering asthe bigger banks critical onto Bernanke becouse he did not lower rates anticipatively, while there are coupla of them for a hike too.

I'll see

bibi

UK Alex 10:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Buba's Weber: Germany Could Balance Budget By 2008 - Report

Sofia mik 10:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
1023 GMT [Dow Jones] China's vice premier Huang Ju has died in a Beijing
hospital, U.K. newspaper The Times reported on website Wednesday, citing
unnamed sources. State Council Information Office couldn't be reached
immediately for comment. Absence of Huang, one of several vice PMs, unlikely to
greatly affect economic policies, given that latest notice on Huang's
activities was dated March 7 on central government website. Huang, who has
overseen the financial portfolio at the State Council, fell ill early last
year, according to a government spokesman.

London NYAM 10:38 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi Kapp// Yes the EUR/GBP cross is getting some action here as the Eur weakens prob in the face of growing belief that the June rate rise is the last after the dissapointing econ news yesterday. That may be premature as the other side of the coin GBP may be gaining on overly optimistic rate hopes.
(ie more than one rise). Certainly the EUR/JPY cross has a much clearer trend reversal pattern than the GBP cross at the moment, something that wasnt true last week (IMO). I wouldnt discount the possibility of furtehr EUR/JPY correction towards 162.80 but if it proceeds to a new low before that then I target 161.50

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:23 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
hello NYAM - sorry to hear you got stopped
- obviously there is ST speculation over the BOE and most of the action looks to come from EURGBP - since the spread will widen..
I shorted little more at 162.50 this evening - the pair is consolidating in a triangle pattern and a break around 162.18/22 will give more signs of the reversal scenario and the 23.6% fib target.....

London NYAM 10:12 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
re 1.9929 fulcrum: Its also the .618 retrace from the may 7th high to the may 8th low.

Como Perrie 10:11 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Ozzy has lotsa puts in the range of .8230/20

Kiwi .7320/40

Gen dk 10:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 10:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
This GBP/USD 1.9929 is an interesting fulcrum point.

Melbourne Qindex 09:59 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the upper barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.1092* // 1.1106.

London NYAM 09:44 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Morning. Stopped out at cost on GBPJPY 238.90 (less forward pips). JPY c-wave in progress as predicted but cable held on to 1.9900 area simultaneosly. SO my theory that the cross would cap was off. Still seems like the right trade and may have to re-enter.
USDJPY:119.95 post 120 spike but still room for more before we go down
GBPUSD: 1.9915 Similar story except for GBP strengthshould help mount to near or above the 1.9990
cross: room to move to 239.25-35 but pressure should kick in for the reversal.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:44 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
KL - you can find these important releases on the Home page under Forex Calendar

USA Zeus 09:36 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:32 GMT May 9, 2007
KL KL 09:27 GMT May 9, 2007
Approx 528 to FOMC
Approx 1533 to BOE

KL KL 09:35 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus

What...8.8 hours from now??....I thought it was tonight..Bank of England decision...I know FOMC is later....R U Sure??

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:34 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
today - 18:15 GMT - FOMC rate decision

tomorrow - May 10:
11:00 GMT - BOE Announces rates
11:45 GMT - ECB Announces rates

USA Zeus 09:32 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 09:27 GMT May 9, 2007
Approx 528

KL KL 09:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
May I ask how many minutes from this post is the BOE decision on rates??...Anybody...TIA

moscow mike 09:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
For some reasons i would never fight $cad for shorts when it is above 1076.

hk ab 08:52 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
small short 1.1081

hk ab 08:51 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
nt now only appears in future forum.

moscow mike 08:51 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:45 GMT May 9, 2007
me - not. I am using my own screw drivers and hammers. Was just asking ab because to me he went out of his plan. But now everything is clear.

Best trades!

moscow mike 08:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:35 GMT May 9, 2007
Thanks my friend.

If you ever see our friend nt, pls give him my best regards.

moscow mike 08:48 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD 1300 is coming... LOL

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:45 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
mike & ab //
may I ask - do you use 5 SMA on daily chart for short term trades?

Como Perrie 08:44 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 08:43 GMT May 9, 2007
tks

Como Perrie 08:44 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PITTSBURGH (AP) - A private investment firm urged Alcoa Inc. to drop its bid to take over Canadian rival Alcan Inc.

Royal Bank of Scotland consortium could make hostile bid for ABN Amro - reports

AZUSA 4x-ed 08:43 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, refining capacity improving and crude inventories are up. Gasoline may be the issue, however a TFN poll estimates 172k barrels.

Como Perrie 08:39 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Today US energy information admin. crude oil stocks for May 4 week. An improovment?

Melbourne Qindex 08:36 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP (Weekly Cycle) : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 0.6769 - 0.6820. The daily cycle indicates that projected supporting points are 0.6783 and 0.6792. Projected resistant points are 0.6809 and 0.6818.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.6756 - 0.6765* - 0.6770 - 0.6776 // 0.6783* - 0.6792 - 0.6796 - 0.6801* - [0.6809] - 0.6818* - 0.6823 - 0.6827 - 0.6836* // 0.6843 - 0.6849 - 0.6854* - 0.6863 ...

hk ab 08:35 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
mike, I give a chance of false break.
so short @ 30 pips above this magical 5 dma.

moscow mike 08:30 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:21 GMT May 9, 2007
Isn't that above magical daily SMA 5?

Changing plans?

Lahore FM 08:23 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:23 GMT May 8, 2007
FM, will you short usdcad 1.1070 with stop just several pips above to test the previous day high and with target 1.09xx
---------------
Alimin i think there is some upside left and not shorting here at 1.1070 just now.

hk ab 08:21 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
short dlr/cad on the next blip close to 1.1090

The Netherlands Purk 08:11 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
AMSTERDAM: They forgot the chop in my nose there...

The Netherlands Purk 08:10 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:54 GMT May 9, 2007

U bent welkom... just watch the show there.... when it moves it will be quick no stops....

Como Perrie 08:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gives keynote speech at an event organised by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors, in London in 1 min.

Syd 08:00 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
China Should Suitably Widen CNY Float Range -Govt Think Tank
Think Tank Urges China To Strictly Control M1 Rise - Xinhua
China Should Focus On Preventing Econ Overheating
China Should Curb Sharp Rise In Trade Surplus
China Still Faces Inflationary Pressure -China Should Closely Monitor Short-Term Cap Flows

Syd 07:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
BHP and Rio Tinto have a combined market value of about $US237 billion - about twice the size of New Zealand's economy.

Syd 07:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Toyota Expects Big JPY Gains Vs EUR, USD
In interesting earnings comment from Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker says it expects USD/JPY to trade on average at 115 for this fiscal year, with EUR/JPY about 150; both figures would mark significant rise for JPY, especially against EUR, which recently rose to all-time high vs JPY of 163.60. Expectations in line with predictions from Bank of America putting USD/JPY at 115, EUR/JPY at 152 in 1Q 2008

Melbourne Qindex 07:41 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the upper barrier at 1.2139* // 1.2196. The daily cycle charts indicate that upside targeting points are 1.2189* and 1.2233*. A projected supporting barrier is expected at 1.2133 - 1.2139.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2034 - 1.2056* - 1.2067 - 1.2083 // 1.2100* - 1.2122 - 1.2133 - 1.2144* - [1.2166] - 1.2189* - 1.2200 - 1.2211 - 1.2233* // 1.2249 - 1.2266 - 1.2277* - 1.2299 ...

Amsterdam jm 07:14 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Something a lot of people dont know about Purky...aprt from been a forex trader.....
http://www.geocities.com/sesameplanet/Purk.html

Melbourne Qindex 07:13 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : A projected resistant point is located at [120.22] which is also the mid-point reference of the weekly cycle projected series. As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 119.49*. My daily cycle projected series indicates that the market has potential to tackle the lower barrier at 119.40 / 119.57* when it is trading below 119.80. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.90.


Daily Cycle : ... 118.90 - 119.12* - 119.23 - 119.40 // 119.57* - 119.80 - 119.91 - 120.02* - [120.25] - 120.47* - 120.59 - 120.70 - 120.93* // 121.10 - 121.26 - 121.38* - 121.60 ...

Gen dk 07:08 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
0656 GMT [Dow Jones] The heavy JPY buying that started in Europe spilled into the US session Tuesday with EUR/JPY taking the brunt, down 150 sen to a 1 week low of 161.91. Traders put much of the move down to position trimming ahead of the triple rate setting meetings that kick of with the Fed tonight. EUR/USD breached strong technical support around 1.3550, down to a 3-week low 1.3515 but recovered a little poise in Asia Wednesday and Europe picks up with it once again in the mid 1.35s. Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones says the current EUR/USD correction has risk toward 1.3475-15, although this should hold and she favors buying such dips for a return to 1.3665-80 highs. For EUR/JPY, the demise of the 20-day moving average at 162.07 suggests the rate has more downside near-term, with the Fibonacci level of 160.55, 159.60 (Feb peak) and 158.60 (April 19 low) targeted.

Syd 06:58 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Rio Denies Bid Rumor
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 ends up 0.6% at 6341.0, could fall tomorrow after Rio Tinto denied market speculation that it had been subject to a A$110/share takeover bid from BHP (BHP.AU) after close.

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:37 GMT May 9, 2007 || Dank u... may generosity may be rewarded with a ticket to see JR in action ;-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:45 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
0644 GMT [Dow Jones] In interesting earnings comment from Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker says it expects USD/JPY to trade on average at 115 for this fiscal year, with EUR/JPY about 150; both figures would mark significant rise for JPY, especially against EUR, which recently rose to all-time high vs JPY of 163.60. Expectations in line with predictions from Bank of America putting USD/JPY at 115, EUR/JPY at 152 in 1Q 2008. USD/JPY last at 119.84 on EBS, EUR/JPY 162.32.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:45 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Although the FOMC will provide a significant drag on risk appetite in the very short term, it should also be fuel for further position adjustment. Asia has seen a fair amount of flows in [USD/YEN] with an early dip said linked to Japanese selling of Eur/Yen. Some see this resulting from Euroland bond redemptions, others seeing a risk that the weak Yen could also come under fire from the US congress. That said, the bulk of the cross driven recovery of the Yen in the last 24 hours looks to be the result of profit taking, with specs overall holding more extended risk in Yen shorts than elsewhere, thus the correction natural ahead of a big risk event like the FOMC. Specs still have plenty more Yen shorts to contend with, so today 119.50 is key. Talk of semi official bids support, large stops below. Note strong coverage at Tues" US 10 year auction, the indirect bid an above average 44.3%, highest since Nov 05. IGM

The Netherlands Purk 06:37 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA: in case of patternstruggles bugger WILL go back to 16350 in a few boom booms. Levels to watch it grow are 16249-16277-16304-16318. 18 is a nice level for every 100 pip zones...

CANBERRA JD 06:35 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
am short g/u now for 1.9800 trailing stop 20 and stop loss 9970 hopefully we get the one big push .

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:29 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:49 GMT May 9, 2007 || Eso si que es (SOCKS)... thank you for that; quite nice. Any upside levels in case patterns deceive us?

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:27 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
from DJ tecvh analysis:
Intraday EUR/USD: The euro is set to gradually recover from its Tuesday $1.3515 low and eyes $1.3580 and, if breached, $1.3628 minor resistance, Monday's high, Wednesday as long as the $1.3515 minor support holds. If it doesn't, support around $1.3480 would be eyed. Resistance above $1.3628 comes in around $1.3657. Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The dollar eyes Y119.87 minor resistance, the April high, and could also reach the Y120.00 area, provided Y119.47 minor support, the May 2 low, holds. If not, Y119.07 support, the May low, would be targeted. Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Cable is expected to remain above $1.9880 minor support, and should bounce back towards $1.9925 minor resistance. Further resistance levels come in around $1.9975 and at $2.00. Support below $1.9880 is found around $1.9850 and at $1.9822, the April 3 high. Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: The euro declined sharply Tuesday but should recover somewhat Wednesday. Eyes Y162.57 minor resistance and then Friday's Y162.86 low, provided Y162.22, the April 27 low, holds. If not, a decline towards Y161.90 support should unfold. Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.

madrid mm 06:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

MoF Koji Omi reiterates it is up to BoJ to decide specific interest rate levels. Wants BoJ to support steady economic growth through monetary policy. Government is also striving to share view on economic conditions with BoJ.

Market focus on next week's US quarterly Treasury coupons and redemptions on May 15, coupons of $20.42b, redemption $65.87b.

Rurmours swirling in Aussie market that mining Giant BHP is about to make a bid for its local giant rival Rio Tinto.

RBNZ may tighten capital requirement rules for banks to curb lending and housing market, avoiding need for more rate hikes. RBNZ says NZD movement remains orderly, with yield demand for NZD expected to remain high despite expected substantial upcoming maturities in Eurokiwi, Uridashi.

NKS: The banking unit to be created via postal privatization in October plans to invest in stocks, asset-backed securities, syndicated loans and interest rate swaps to diversify revenue sources and spread out investment risks. Under the business blueprint submitted by Japan Post Corp, the banking unit -- which will become the custodian of the more than Y180t ($1.5t) in postal savings deposits -- will seek approval to invest directly in stocks from the FSA soon after privatization

UK BRC April like-for-like sales +2.4%Y/Y VS +3.9% in March, weakest since Nov. Total sales +4.7%y/y vs +6.2% in March, weakest since Dec.

Japan Mar leading indicator index 40.0, coincident indicator index 22.2.

PBoC sets CNY mid rate at 7.6971.. China says it will hike FX reserve ratio for banks foreign currency deposits by 1% to 5% from May 15.

A Tale of 3 Central banks meeting (Fed, BoE, ECB) and a Tale of 3 US Subcommittee hearing on FX manipulation with US Treasury on CNY, JPY. Market cautious, JPY the key mover, focus on EUR/JPY sell off.

Large Japanese custodian, agricultural, regional bank and large Japanese brokerage/ securities houses were good sellers of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, pushing USD/JPY to day lows of 119.67 after low fixing of 119.76, and EUR/JPY toward 162.08, with talks the huge selling are linked to JPY repatriation, for huge US Treasury coupons+redemption on May 15 and ahead of Fed FOMC statement today as hedge funds, Japan players liquidate long EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY positions.

US funds, large lifer said to be good USD/JPY selling, Japanese exporters selling USD/JPY, EUR/JPY on rallies, with focus on downside risks.

Downside still hearing Kampo, lifers, pension funds bids at 119.50, but sstoploss orders building on break of 119.40 level. EUR/JPY stops 161.80 and more stoploss below 161.40-50.

NZD weighed by US hedge funds sales, but US invs, Dutch buyers ahead of 0.7350 expiry today, Tokyo cut, while stoploss orders are building on break of 0.7340.

AUD/NZD hit fresh 3-week highs of 1.1258 after 1.1250 triggers taken out, focus on 1.1300 triggers.

EUR/USD supported now on talks of Sovereign, East Europeans, Russian, China bids 1.3500 lows after talks of same names selling good amount from 1.36 handle yesterday. EUR/JPY selling weighing on EUR, while GBP/USD capped by GBP/JPY sales, focus now Fed statement today, BoE, ECB tom, ECB Trichet/ Weber speak today.

Nikkei +67pts or 0.38% at 17,724. JGBs lower, eye BoJ Fukui tom, Fed FOMC today, 10-yr yield +0.015% 1.665%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.67/120.04, EUR/USD 1.3536/1.3549, GBP/USD 1.9866/1.9910, USD/CHF 1.2176/1.2185, AUD/USD 0.8265/0.8294, NZD/USD 0.7345/0.7369.

CANBERRA JD 06:11 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Am now looking at the pound. This move up could give good reason to short, am watching and waiting.

Melbourne Qindex 06:09 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.3523 - 1.3759. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the lower limit of daily cycle reference at 1.3576. As indicates in the current daily cycle projected series the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the upper barrier at 1.3561* // 1.3572. Speculative buying interest will increase when EUR/USD is able to trade above the daily cycle upper limit at 1.3607. The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.3523 - 1.3641.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3422 - 1.3437* - 1.3445 - 1.3456 // 1.3468* - 1.3483 - 1.3491 - 1.3499* - [1.3514] - 1.3530* - 1.3538 - 1.3545 - 1.3561* // 1.3572 - 1.3584 - 1.3592* - 1.3607 ...

madrid mm 05:57 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
blmbrg currencies Click here

The Netherlands Purk 05:49 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Ah, here we are lets see where is it: right: e/j pattern says that we will go and see 162.18 again, and will try to catch 16170. If we do that than next will be 16150 and 16122. Shorters will be aware of 50 pip hickups.
Loonie did a nice jump yesterday and will continue this jimp today till we see 11126 today. MIB may try 11009 again, so watch it and just wait on dips if you are a longer. The shorters who are out of possies now: good luck with entering...

madrid mm 05:42 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GM FX JEdi !

Syd 05:41 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Japan leading indicators index rises to 40.0 in March, from revised 27.3 in February. That matches forecast of 40.0 in Dow Jones poll of economists, marks 5 consecutive months below boom-or-bust line of 50. Coincident index came at 22.2, 1st time in two and a half years both readings have stayed below 50 for 3 months straight. Goldman Sachs economists say slump due to production, inventory correction in IT-related goods; index should move above 50 in months ahead as production starts expanding again, which may accelerate economic expansion.

USA Zeus 05:37 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
A USD/CAD crack to 1.1078 will confirm the down trend is disrupted for the first time on my system.

Next step would be to either work its way back into traction south or continue north for to look for a confirmed change of direction.

Syd 05:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:03 GMT well every time I ring a bank etc they are in Timbooktoo

USA Zeus 05:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
geez- another one sorry

"we a straders" should read "we as traders"

USA Zeus 05:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:56 GMT May 9, 2007

Thx Syd- Best we continue on with what we a straders do best! Friend of mine recently had x-rays and they were reviewed from India. So, it is moving beyond overnight computer tech support!
GT :-)

hk ab 04:08 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR if you don't show up today. I will shor the dlr/jpy heavy :P/

melbourne DC 04:06 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
perhaps china-stocks-carry

melbourne DC 04:05 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
14:04
* China State TV Says PBOC To Hike FX Reserve Ratio To 5%
* China To Hike FX Reserve Ratio By 1 Pct Point - State TV

Syd 03:56 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus, interesting article here

The future's bright . . . but not for lawyers and accountants
The result, he predicts, is that between 30 million and 40 million US jobs could go within the next generation. Bear in mind that this is around a quarter of the US workforce, and that on that basis the comparable number over here could be as much as eight million (all major Anglo-Saxon economies will be affected). It is more than a little perturbing.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/08/ccjobs08.xml

USA Zeus 03:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Was doing a few calculations re: prior post when I realized my HP that I was calculating with was imported from China! How did this happen? Is HP really just a Chinese company or an American company exploit cheap overseas labor and manufacturing (cheap infrastructure build out) then "import" their own product and sell it to me?

After I paid the merchant and they presumably paid HP did they in turn keep the money without having to pay anyone in China?

USA Zeus 03:36 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 03:20 GMT May 9, 2007

Does it really matter the "what" ?

Absolutely! Seems like half of all the "stuff" in my house is "made in China" but, aside from a few fortune cookies and firecrackers none of it is Chinese.
The "what" are mostly American goods that are made in China. If Americans would sew Tommy Bahama shirts and make plastic toys for a few cups of rice a day China would not have those jobs nor the so-called exports. And don't think those American goods made in China were paid with an "I-O-U".
The Chinese have advanced from foreign capital sinking billions into infrastructure and cheap labor. As for competitive Chinese trucks sold in the US- That is still a Chinese dream.

Syd 03:21 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
The euro is set to lose further ground against the yen, according to technical charts, after risk-averse investors sold the euro Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting Wednesday and the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision Thursday. The euro could fall to Y160.58, and possibly Y158.69, in the near term, the charts indicate.
The market expects the Federal Open Market Committee to leave rates on hold at 5.25% at its meeting, but the focus is on the FOMC's post-decision statement for any change in wording from the previous statement, with any slight shift likely to provoke sharp currency moves in the foreign-exchange market. Aside from risk aversion, comments by E.U. finance ministers Tuesday that they discussed prospects for a stronger dollar and yen also are weighing on the euro.
The European currency has consolidated against the yen after it hit an all-time high of Y163.62 on May 3.
The currency pair fell to a low of Y161.87 Tuesday, triggering stop-loss sell orders placed below Y162.00. t rebounded to a high of Y162.58. The fall of the euro's exchange rate to the yen below Y162.90, which marked an uptrend support line that extends from the March 6 low of Y150.72, has shifted the technical bias toward bearish. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, or MACD, line has staged a negative crossover Monday against its exponential moving average to signal a euro sell against the yen. Meanwhile, the slow stochastic indicator has turned bearish at the overbought level. At its current level, the spot euro-yen rate is trading below both the five- and 15-day moving averages, which suggests that a downward move may be underway. The immediate target is Y160.58, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the March 6 low of Y150.72 to the May 3 peak at Y163.62. Any extension of the fall would target the euro at Y158.69, the 38.2% correction, and subsequently Y157.17, the 50% correction.
Jerry Tan, Dow Jones

Halifax CB 03:20 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 03:03 GMT May 9, 2007
Does it really matter the "what" ? Certainly the Chinese lag in industries that require heavy capitalization - but guess where they are getting the capital from - selling Americans those TH clothes & plastic toys. Right now China is beginning to export light trucks to the US; and while they may not be the finest in the world, give them a few years. Japan went through similar in the 60's and 70's. By my (ballpark) calculation at current trade growth rates and trade levels, it will be at least a decade before the trade balance is corrected. Lots of time, lots of money...

USA Zeus 03:05 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 02:56 GMT May 9, 2007
JC- C U tom. Have a good one!

USA Zeus 03:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:50 GMT May 9, 2007
Have to refer you to my earlier post.
What was imported? Xao Ming Clothiers or Tommy Bahama?

Fairfield JC 02:56 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:50 GMT May 9, 2007
USA Zeus 02:26 GMT May 9, 2007

you two are funny cats....I am off to bed after missing that entire run down on the GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY. FCUK!!!!! See you tomorrow Zeus and ALL. Tomorrow might be the day of the Dollar? prob not but who knows, she is coming!!!! Night All

Halifax CB 02:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:26 GMT May 9, 2007
FWIW, US exports to China last year were around 55 billion USD; US imports from China were approx 285 billion USD. Catepillar tractors or not, that a pretty big gap....

Syd 02:38 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Chinese investors shrug off warning
Last updated: May 9 2007 03:22
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/120dafa4-fd9d-11db-8d62-000b5df10621.html

USA Zeus 02:26 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:16 GMT May 9, 2007
Actually they sure do- as Alex pointed out. China is the third largest export market. Imagine a world without GE generators, Caterpillar and of course surplus farm crops. Where would China get this? Hard to duplicate it in their copyright enfringement labs. Can even find the likes of a traveling Revdax sipping a java at a Starbucks while checking out the locals in China.

Halifax CB 02:16 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:57 GMT May 8, 2007
If the US imports from China finished goods then it makes sense that we export raw (and finished) goods to them.

The problem is that, on the whole, the US doesn't, and it's not going to happen until US goods become affordable in China (and the other nations holding piles of US debt). How do you see that happening w/o a big drop in the USD?

Melbourne Qindex 02:12 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.9841 - 2.0068. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the lower limit of the daily cycle reference at 1.9864. My daily cycle projected series suggests that the downside targeting levels are 1.9716 and 1.9785. The upside targeting point is 1.9991.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9682 - 1.9716* - 1.9733 - 1.9759 // 1.9785* - 1.9819 - 1.9836 - 1.9853* - [1.9888] - 1.9922* - 1.9939 - 1.9957 - 1.9991* // 2.0017 - 2.0042 - 2.0060* - 2.0094 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Nigeria Basorun 01:48 GMT - GBP/USD : I will post my analysis later today.

Syd 01:50 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY falls on selling by securities houses, trusts, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank.


Australian house prices rise 1.1% nationally in 1Q vs 4Q. Gains now more evenly spread through 8 major capital cities than in recent years with Perth rising just 2.1%, well short of the stellar quarterly increases common in 2005/06. Data suggest boom conditions in west easing. Sydney prices fall 0.4% with Hobart the strongest gainer, climbing 3.8%. Data benign enough not to concern RBA

Nigeria Basorun 01:48 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne do you thinkit will be going in a down trend first b4 any reversals bcos the daily chart show this indication but wat's ur view.

Mtl JP 01:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
out earlier this spring: "Japan March foreign reserves rise to record high" - AFX 04/05/2007

It is my contention that stocks are currently booming on account of the higher their reserves the lower they want the yen => and stocks boom in spring.

In the meantime nevermind that longterm-wise it would be better to loan to the $250/yr Chinese peasants. THEy need to get purchasing power; about a billion of them

Melbourne Qindex 01:29 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.9841 - 2.0068.

USA Zeus 01:23 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 00:22 GMT May 9, 2007

Will have to write a letter to Brazil thanking them for their CB charity intervention and saving the US from certain collapse LOL.

Rye,NY et 00:54 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 21:22 GMT May 3, 2007
Rye,NY et 22:00 GMT May 2, 2007
Eur/Usd...fwiw...A persuasive break below 1.3565 will signal a deeper pullback...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday, the market closed below Trendline Support...The Short-term bias shifts, temporarily, to the downside...GL/GT
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If 1.3500 contains the downside today, we may see some upside...
Just my view...GL/GT

Nigeria Basorun 00:53 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
anybody have an opinion on the cable

NY Ed 00:33 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
am I dreaming, hoping,praying or what, I am still convinced that eur/usd will hit 1.3650 this week. Or at least that is what the daily tells me. Any thoughts????

UK Alex 00:22 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:57 GMT May 8, 2007
Yes, Central Banks have been cushioning the fall. Intervention in the Brazilian real is a prime example. The Ibovespa has also been performing quite well.

Syd 00:16 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Congressional Hearing On Yen/Yuan Manipulation Wednesday
Yuan is old news. What is increasingly new on the Congressional currency radar screen is the yen.

USA Zeus 00:03 GMT May 9, 2007 Reply   
Try again LOL-
Should read- "The Dow stocks are at historic levels for the same reasons..."

 




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