Syd 23:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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Australia's PM: Wage Growth Not Pressuring Inflation, Rates
Australia's decentralized system for setting wages isn't leading to any pressure on inflation, which is in the middle of the government's 2% to 3% target band, and so there isn't a case for any increase in interest rates, Prime Minister John Howard said in an interview on 3AW radio Melbourne
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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jf - tnx - I got ur point..
Syd 23:36 GMT May 10, 2007
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Warning Lights Flashing On Asia Shares
Dow Jones] Asia stocks have continued to tee up record highs in May, aided by fund inflows, M&A activity, though short-term correction's likely as soon as today. Markets are getting a bit starved of oxygen and due for pause, especially with DJIA retreating after string of gains, ending down 1.1%. Also, China regulators have increased noise level on runaway market there, raising chance of correction in China spreading to rest of region. Foreign net buying has been strong so far this year as funds take positive view on Asia and select markets within region and UBS says, as key tactical indicator, this foreign buying is now "flashing red"; net foreign buying of more than $6.5 billion has preceded last 4 tactical corrections in May 2004, April 2005, October 2005, May 2006. Historically, corrections come 1-4 months later. April's net foreign buying was $7.7 billion. So should investors run for hills? Not necessarily, given a correction could unearth value in overheated sectors. As well, fundamentals appeal. Analysts are saying it is wise to cherry pick but there's no need to avoid markets; may pay to get into defensive plays. It would also pay to keep watching China. There are clouds gathering over that market and chatter about bubbles may prompt policy action.
nj jf 23:09 GMT May 10, 2007
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i like to trade both sides as it makes me trade and not hesitate at my levels. if the mkt rises above 162.30 you dont want to be short on the day as it would mean a change in the market structure. gl
Auckland peat 23:05 GMT May 10, 2007
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thx for the reply Zeus...
Halifax - I believe that the most predicatable and hence tradeable part of any formation is in fact the correction not the impulse move. Cad should correct to 1.1370.
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:03 GMT May 10, 2007
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[ASIAN OPEN] What is interesting is NY market bought the Yen after a long interval, and such change of usual pattern needs close monitoring. US stocks weakness along with Yen strength is also an indication of risk reduction operation, so Asian stocks movements today would be watched closely. IGM
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:55 GMT May 10, 2007
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nj jf 22:33 //
interesting strategy - why not selling the pullbacks to the breakdown from the lower channel line at 162.70
Halifax CB 22:26 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 22:01 GMT May 10, 2007
Unlike others, I am in. Many have no positions as they are still trying to analyze their charts but feel it (what- watching?) will be exciting.
That's probably because having followed the trend down, they can go enjoy themselves now that's over :)
Maybe "amusing" is a better word then "exciting"
Cheers;
Gen dk 22:13 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
GVI john 22:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
GBP/JPY
GBP/CHF
USD/CAD
CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI
5/10/2007 20:42 GMT
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD USD/CAD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
Last 1.3483 119.87 1.2201 1.9785 1.1107 0.6814 161.66
High 1.3564 120.54 1.2223 1.9962 1.113 0.6819 163.05
Low 1.3465 119.83 1.216 1.9773 1.1045 0.6786 161.58
Simple mva
5 day 1.3550 120.02 1.2118 1.9823 1.1027 0.6797 162.27
10 day 1.3581 119.96 1.2089 1.9853 1.1049 0.6804 162.45
20 day 1.3584 119.49 1.2065 1.9894 1.1141 0.6794 161.59
50 day 1.3411 118.46 1.2107 1.9651 1.1417 0.6788 158.11
100 day 1.3231 119.31 1.2223 1.9590 1.1551 0.6720 157.21
200 day 1.3032 118.27 1.2275 1.9278 1.1399 0.6724 153.58
Philadelphia Caba 22:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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Gold Coast Martin 22:00 GMT
lol..was just wondering when you gonna show up..! g/l!
USA BAY 22:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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MOSCOW MIKE,
Thanks MIKE and goodnight
USA Zeus 22:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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Auckland peat 21:01 GMT May 10, 2007
Thanks for your concern. Am in with ave cost 1.1042. Perhaps it is too early. Time will tell. This was a gradual positioning in to the trade in blocks strategy instead of "pick your point and dive in" trade.
Just following my plan and got positioned in down to 1.1013 but missed the very bottom. Took some decent gains on the first bit of the allocation earlier today as posted.
Unlike others, I am in. Many have no positions as they are still trying to analyze their charts but feel it (what- watching?) will be exciting.
cheers!
Gold Coast Martin 22:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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****Posts below still valid:
Gold Coast Martin 23:37 GMT May 7, 2007
*Post below still valid. 8887 should stay respected for the rest of this month( give or take 3 pips for the spread retail accounts) and still serve as an early warning indicator of carry trade unwinding... g/l...
Gold Coast Martin 12:44 GMT April 26, 2007( from GVI)
FWIW.. NZD/JPY 8887 Level is a level that looks like will be respected for the rest of this month which points to a target of 8187 with 8627 shorter term target...fwiw..a good early indicator for yen crosses selling ...option play on this pair has good r/r...g/t
**Also careful selling into nzd/jpy unwinding as well as other yen crosses aiming for big figure targets in a straight line ....read post below as to why....g/l to all..
Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007
Trading since 2006 has seen the introduction of more "black box"propriatary systems been adopted by more and more market movers. This has resulted in more daily reversals within the week as these systems trade the market in either direction on a daily basis in 45-90 pip increments...which means that it is harder for the market to drop/rise 200-300 in a straight line and harder for traders to hold a trade for that long. Add the extra liquidity to the market by the entry of new players and this provides more "food"for the black boxes everyday. So for "stay at home"traders it is becoming harder and harder every week/month/year to produce consistent profit off such a market. This extra increasing liquidity these days works against the smaller traders, while increasing the winning propability of these automated systems. It is becoming a on sided market....Solution against this is to trade shorter time frames and to trade longer term options. This way , the small trader trades "with the black box daily flow" and at the same overcomes the daily noise produced by them via option plays.....g/l to all...
London NYAM 21:57 GMT May 10, 2007
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Kap//It would be ironic but it may be too early to be calling for the hearse. It will take alot of shaking to knock out the soft faom in the lounge chair. Lets see.
Syd 21:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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Carry Trade Unwinding To Intensify In Asian Mkts -censored Markets
Carry trade unwinding may intensify in Asian session, says censored Markets chief FX analyst Ashraf Laidi, after Dow Jones Industrial Average records biggest fall in 2 months.
Sharp decline in U.S. equities triggered a sell off in high yielding carry trade currencies like AUD, GBP, NZD overnight, and "may well prompt a much anticipated correction in Asian equities" today, with contagion likely spreading to European equities later in global day
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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London NYAM //
you see - in Feb it was Shanghai that pulled the trigger and then it spilled over the US, Europe and Asia
-- this time it is the other way round - US selloff triggers the bust in Shanghai along with Asia and Europe..
moscow mike 21:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA BAY 21:35 GMT May 10, 2007
good luck and good night BAY (moscow time 1.50am)
Syd 21:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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NZD/USD To Trade With Heavier Bias - BNZ
Bullish USD sentiment, unwinding of carry trades, continued selling of NZD/AUD will keep NZD trading with "heavier bias" today, says Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton. Notes market's failure to react positively to yesterday's strong NZ 1Q jobs data shows sentiment toward NZD has become increasingly bearish; heavy selling of EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY overnight has filtered through into general unwinding of carry trade positions.
London NYAM 21:44 GMT May 10, 2007
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GBPJPY retrace has potential to bounce back to 238.00/10 but it will havetrouble as momentum should build for a stronger wave down as sell offs accumulate momentum. this will depend alot on altered risk assessments in the market amplified by equity sell-offs. The chinese market would prove very important if the corrective pessure spread to the hyper overvalued sticks in shanghai or schenzhen. but we may not get there yet.
USA BAY 21:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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MOSCOW MIKE,
Will short nzd/jpy and set stoploss at 50 pips. Thanks
moscow mike 21:32 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA BAY 21:31 GMT May 10, 2007
Well well, my purpose here is not to suggest any trade, but if you have adjusted your risk-odd ratio then your trade is perfected!
USA BAY 21:31 GMT May 10, 2007
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MOSCOW MIKE,
700 PIPs down. WOW, thats a lot of pip for kiwi. So not too late to enter a short now,. Thanks
___________________________________________
Thanks MTL JP and London NYAM
moscow mike 21:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike 12:46 GMT May 1, 2007
looks like KIWIYEN is set for a BIG move.
===============
USA BAY if we see same movement day tomorrow then 700 pip target is a possibility
P,S, Me thinks i was blured as TV-paper ja-ja-binks LOL
London NYAM 21:21 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA BAY 20:16 GMT May 10, 2007
LONDON NYAM,
197.70 OR 117.70
Neither. At the time of post expectation was for @119.70 hit 119.73 that was enough for now. Contra correction is due but, as i suspect this is the wave 3 down, dont expect much in the contra---usually dead cat bounce kind of play.
Tomorrow is another day. gl gt
LKWD JJ 21:19 GMT May 10, 2007
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was short eurchf but got out a bit early. as euro drops i think its worth less usd to my account so i cut it. waiting for 19816 in cable.
Mtl JP 21:18 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA BAY 20:53 - expecting relatively tight range into tom's retail sales. overall, general bias is down.
USA BAY 21:18 GMT May 10, 2007
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MOSCOW MIKE,
Whats your target for nzd/jpy pls. thanks a lot
Lahore FM 21:17 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike 21:15 GMT May 10, 2007
it kinda crumpled or as Purk says,
'sand to sand,ashes to sand.'lolzzz.....
LKWD JJ 21:17 GMT May 10, 2007
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11960 on radar $Y 20ma. 11915 55ma
Lahore FM 21:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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LKWD JJ 21:13 GMT May 10, 2007
usdchf shud remain weak heading into a carry unwind.gbpchf and eurchf sells.
moscow mike 21:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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Lahore FM
Hello my friend. NZDYEN Seems to be well hurt today to die in our favor ;)
GT as always
LKWD JJ 21:13 GMT May 10, 2007
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so you agree with my view. chjf still 1.2240 or is the party over? hit 23 today.
moscow mike 21:11 GMT May 10, 2007
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Auckland peat 21:01 GMT May 10, 2007
Let me answer for the neighborhood (in trust we trust).
GCE has a well positioned, strong, and beautifully formed USDCAD investment long.
GVI john 21:03 GMT May 10, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
Lahore FM 21:02 GMT May 10, 2007
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LKWD JJ 20:50 GMT May 10, 2007
rodent or rat it is really the same.
Auckland peat 21:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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zeus i hope your built position remained intact, and wasnt frittered away now that the move has started. i still think you were premature but each to their own method. I prefer some confirmation before entering. I'm averaged at 1.1070 +40 next resistance is at 1.1146 , from there it could come back to 1.1092.
eu/j turned from the fib levels at my previous post (162.95 )
again i waited for confirmation so am only short from 162.38 currently +68
USA BAY 20:53 GMT May 10, 2007
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MTL JP,
Could you kindly share your view on usd/cad please. thanks a lot. gt/gl
LKWD JJ 20:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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Lahore FM 20:40 GMT May 10, 2007
LKWD JJ 20:28 GMT May 10, 2007
$y was up about 60 from yesterday and gave it all back. looks like a rat, smells like a rat, feels like a rat, maybe it is. what do you think?
Mtl JP 20:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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"the greatest vote of confidence any country can achieve is thru foreign direct investment" - Paulsen in an interview w/Bartimoro broadcast at 4:30ish NYT. (who is listening ?)
FDI: $361 billion in 2000. 2006: $184 billion
So far none of the pundits on the telly zeroing in on the Patriot Act as root cause which makes anyone holding usd assests subject to deep azz probe.
as was pointed out earlier this year
JP 17:46 GMT January 23, 2007
Bob Rubin on Charlie Rose yikyak yesty addressing "why would you put your many anywhere but America" said that London is shifting into relatively higher gear because of fears of confiscation or other impediments to access one's money in US. He also said it is not irreparable.
Atlanta South 20:42 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus
Ref 20:27. Got it & tks. GT
Lahore FM 20:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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LKWD JJ 20:28 GMT May 10, 2007
JJ all well i hope,speculating on fresh carry unwind i guess.
Halifax CB 20:39 GMT May 10, 2007
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LKWD JJ 20:28 GMT May 10, 2007
And if it repeats what $Cad did May 9th of last year, we could see below 1.100 . In any case, it could be fun....
LKWD JJ 20:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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if we get a repeat of feb 27 usdcad should fly . chf was up vs usd.
hawthorne, ca thetrendmyfrenz 20:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sofia, i am showing EUR trend is down from here, imo we pullback to at least 1.3/1.29 area before we see a bounce to 1.33 area, then pullback to 1.27/1.25 area. i think this may happen by end of June. at that time EUR should be in a trading range +/- 500pt. im still leaning towards EUR hitting 1.4 by year end.
USA Zeus 20:27 GMT May 10, 2007
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!
Atlanta South 20:09 GMT May 10, 2007
USA Zeus
”Do you have a call on the E/$?”
-----------------------------------------------
Reversed to USD bullish right at the top of EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Fairfield JC 18:39 GMT May 10, 2007
Great work JC- Being a contra at just the right time really pays!
Polokwane CS 20:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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CT Cris 05:43 GMT April 27, 2007
Polokwane CS 05:39 GMT April 27, 2007
====
you are welcome , ask for my email
Cris it seems Jay do not have your e-mail address.Can you
please forward to him.
Thanks
NY Ed 20:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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Las Vegas Daniel... No you are very Clear.. I was just trying to digest it.. and it makes alot of sense. which means my long position at 3488 will have to be watched VERY closely...
Thansk GL
Las Vegas Daniel 20:20 GMT May 10, 2007
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NY ED… You are correct. Looking back at my post I see I am not as articulate as I thought I was.
USA BAY 20:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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LONDON NYAM,
197.70 OR 117.70
NY Ed 20:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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Las Vegas Daniel...your feeling if I'm reading you right is, at best we see, 1.3500/03 and then ..."look out below.." ??
London NYAM 20:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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sorry usdjpy 119.70 (ive got cable on the brain).
London NYAM 20:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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JPY still due one more micro wave of selling to new session lows before a correction is due. But this was definitive 5 waves so yet another down turn in this pair os likely. I would expect to see 197.70 area before a rise. gl gt
USA BAY 20:13 GMT May 10, 2007
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Long USD/CAD, 10 dma breached ,target is the 38.2% of the 1.1880/1.1005 move at 1.1340. Stop below 1.1045. OK, ZEUS , on your bandwagon now.
Atlanta South 20:09 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus
Do you have a call on the E/$? $/CAD finally making the trip north, or @ least it appears so. Tks & gt
Las Vegas Daniel 20:09 GMT May 10, 2007
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If you wish to log EUR/USD you can try going against the market since you are encouraged by its current pull back. Personally I don’t believe it will go above the 1.3505 support turned resistances. The rule for scalping says that when the Australians’ open in about an hour from now, they will trade Euro’s for Dollars to pay for goods and services coming from the USA. The EUR/USD should not upturn significantly until Japan enters the market some four hours from now. I am of the opinion that the upward rally has ended at 1.3681 and we are seeing the first corrective wave down.
moscow mike 20:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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yen
==========
strength is coming
LKWD JJ 19:59 GMT May 10, 2007
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cable guy (ct cris) and randall el lets not ruin a good day for alot of participants here. seems people were short cable, long usdcad and usd chf. have a beer !! if it goes to 10950 lets pray to be short and if it goes to 113 lets be long. was quiet around here for a while.
CT Cris 19:54 GMT May 10, 2007
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CT Cris 16:04 GMT April 30, 2007
Perth Randall El 14:56 GMT April 30, 2007
usd.cad
=========
1.13 is coming
===
donkey or liar ,may be both.
-----------------------------------------------
USDCAD
========
1.0950 is coming
moscow mike 19:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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Have not heard a word from Randy for a while. Where is he?
USA Zeus 19:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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usd.cad
======
1.13 is coming
USA Zeus 19:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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The USD camp will grow and grow...
moscow mike 19:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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NY Ed 19:45 GMT May 10, 2007
Good luck Ed! Its really in the human nature to look at the same things and see different.
GT
NY Ed 19:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike...right on, that's why a 12-18 pip is what I'm on top of??
moscow mike 19:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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NY Ed 19:38 GMT May 10, 2007
Every trade is perfect if risk-odd ratio is adjusted IMO
NY Ed 19:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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Hey Moscow...I'm in Long @ 3488...GL
NY Ed 19:38 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike .. I was giving it thought, especially after after the DROP, for no reason other than delayed FOMC.
My 30 minute showed a nice triangle pattern. I'm in...GL GT
moscow mike 19:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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NY Ed 19:28 GMT May 10, 2007
For sure somebody would sell usd and some buy it from them for euros.
Alaska Moon 19:29 GMT May 10, 2007
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Anyone who trades stocks...See futures forum about Marathon Oil Corp stock split..
Moon
NY Ed 19:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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would ANYONE go long eur/usd for today and tomorrow????
moscow mike 19:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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Seems like a USDCAD is set for a "push-push-me-higher-i-am-your-baby" pattern in coming days/nights
Sofia Kaprikorn 19:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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LKWD JJ //
most of the time are..
LKWD JJ 19:21 GMT May 10, 2007
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afternoon email from see em see analyst mr liadi. seems to be very interesting...
NY RP 19:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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hk ab 18:23 GMT May 10, 2007
Its gold and anything can happen like the equity market sell off, taking gold down with it. When trading gold one must have a stomach and a clue. The Fundamentals are screaming a buy, the techncials (monthly are at support), and the physical buyers are absorbing all the gold the central banks can unload. My call is to be buying here and hopefully lower. But a move above to 750 is certainly coming....
lkwd jj 19:03 GMT May 10, 2007
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cable 19772 55ma. worth noting, maybe....
The Netherlands Purk 19:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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Anyone knows if this ZEUS guy has his BALZ back?
I want to see a nice flight tonight in Loonie..
moscow mike 18:53 GMT May 10, 2007
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The Netherlands Purk 18:43 GMT May 10, 2007
Yes Purky, thanks! And a real nice job done by you in usdcad.
Cheerious,
Maui Mike (why not? LOL)
Gen dk 18:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
Gen dk 18:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
AMS MAXXIM 18:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sarkozy dujour gbpusd
The Netherlands Purk 18:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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Took some more profit on the Loonert, got two possies left average 11043.
Well well that bugger did pass 16218 after all, leaning on the usd move there... wait till there will be some unwinding with it...
Glad that MMM and the MMM is back for more gold stories and saying that the loonie gave a long signal....
Patience now on the Loonie is best we can do. NN will do the rest.
Bugger: 16170-16122-16104 (an old one) 16077-16035-16008-15982-77. Upside: yessssssss 16218...
Fairfield JC 18:39 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 18:11 GMT May 10, 2007
I am liking the emphasis on the (W).......Cheers!!! GT
hk ab 18:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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RP//some fellas seeing $30 more bucks to go though, thoughts?
NY RP 18:11 GMT May 10, 2007
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Gold is being whacked hard. Obviously. It is clearly within its trading pattern and at its lower end of support. This area is clearly buying opportunity 101. Ciao.
USA Zeus 18:11 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike 17:59 GMT May 10, 2007
Well well neighbor. Looks the GCE is causing a day of
(W)reckoning out there- Way to go! :-))
moscow mike 18:02 GMT May 10, 2007
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moscow mike 13:52 GMT May 2, 2007
moscow mike 17:37 GMT April 25, 2007
moscow mike 07:40 GMT April 20, 2007
Gold is in the real hot zone on my daily chart and is set for a $40+ correction under 691.
------------------
now fell below daily trend line for the second day and has a good potential to reach 66x
=======================
Well well... Looks like it is a good point to gather some pips here....
Covering half position +21$
================================
Seems this time if gold can drop below 665 we may see 640 and 600..... Covered some more here +24$ left 20% of the position...
moscow mike 17:59 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 17:05 GMT May 10, 2007
GCE Rules! LOL
Cheers from the neighborhood.
Halifax CB 17:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 17:44 GMT May 10, 2007
I knew I should have trusted my indicator more; good trade on your part. ...In the meantime, waiting for a longer term (long) entry in Aud/us around .8255
Sofia mik 17:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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hawthorne, ca thetrendmyfrenz ,hawthorne, ca
thetrendmyfrenz , where is trend pls?
HK Kevin 17:44 GMT May 10, 2007
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If AUD close tomorrow below 8240, it will be the 2nd consecutive week close below the pivotal level. One more week will confirm the dead of current uptrend in the daily chart.
moscow mike 17:27 GMT May 10, 2007
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Covered half eurjpy shorts +120pips at the point...
moscow mike 17:26 GMT May 10, 2007
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>moscow mike 08:34 GMT May 10, 2007
>Same model, which gave a sell signal on USDCAD at 1790 >gave a buy signal 4 hours ago at 1060....
================
Well well.... seems there was some luck behind
>moscow mike 08:14 GMT May 10, 2007
>Sofia Kaprikorn 08:00 GMT May 10, 2007
>Might be wrong but feeling indicator points to a false break
================
Well well.... eurjpy made a nice flip-flop and... LOL
HK Kevin 17:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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Closed 2nd half EUR/JPY at 161.77.
Expected trading range 161.60-162.60. Will sell again at better level tomorrow.
lkwd jj 17:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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word of caution cable is outside of normal daily range 130-150 pips approaching 200.
Geneva 17:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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Euro/Jpy start a long trip to 130!
lkwd jj 17:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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zeus working his magic in cad and lahore fm in chf. usd on aroll all but $y which is where i am . a bit too much and cant move elsewhere. !@#$%
CANBERRA JD 17:14 GMT May 10, 2007
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g/j traders really let the tiger out of its cage... Hope no one was caught long..
HK Kevin 17:12 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 16:40 GMT May 10, 2007
Stop sell EUR/JPY at 162.23
Covered half at 161.68
USA Zeus 17:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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Muito obrigadissimo Brazil!
USA Zeus 17:08 GMT May 10, 2007
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Took a little more heat off of USD/CAD for +81
London NYAM 17:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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Congrats Kap// Long wait, but there you go. Going home lowered profit cover to 238.70 on mine.
Gen dk 17:06 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
USA Zeus 17:05 GMT May 10, 2007
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jkt-aye 16:58 GMT May 10, 2007
Great job- Kudos and cheers to you!
Using the quadratic decided to take a little more GBP/USD off the table for + 270
HK Kevin 17:05 GMT May 10, 2007
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Intraday support of EUR/JPY at 161.60.
HK Kevin 17:03 GMT May 10, 2007
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Halifax CB 16:59 GMT, are you the one throw a bomb on Aussie?
Halifax CB 16:59 GMT May 10, 2007
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I'm going to have to sit down and write a program to analyze Thursday noon hour jumps....
HK Kevin 16:59 GMT May 10, 2007
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Warning bell for YEn crosses unwinding.
Fibo supports of EUR/JPY at 158.70, 157.17 and 155.63.
jkt-aye 16:58 GMT May 10, 2007
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jkt-aye 19:10 GMT May 9, 2007
Zeus, i'm on ... don't let me dooown. lol
USA Zeus 12:51 GMT May 10, 2007
The USD camp will grow and grow...
---------------------------------------
Zeus ... kudos. +50 in my pocket :) tvm.
Gen dk 16:58 GMT May 10, 2007
Reply
Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
USA Zeus 16:57 GMT May 10, 2007
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Guess Dodge was giving away something free from the side of his ice cream truck when everyone thought there was a free ride to 1.08. Turns out it was a different form of ice- no wonder he had such a smile on his face. LOL
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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EURJPY targets:
23.6% - 160.59
38.2% - 158.69
USA Zeus 16:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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Only thing I can think of besides a day of (W)reckoning is that Brazil must have called Ecuador to save the USD from certain collapse. LOL
Halifax CB 16:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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One has to love lunch time NY on a thursday. Who does this this, btw?
Atlanta South 16:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus
I have been getting a buy $/CAD signal for the last 4+ hrs &
I hope you are now riding it up as its appears these are valid
buy signals. I took a small long @ 1063 & tp @ 1093. The
rocket appears to be lifting off for you now. Gt
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:44 GMT May 10, 2007
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wow - great
short EURJPY scenario is in process..
USA Zeus 16:44 GMT May 10, 2007
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ahh yes well USD/CAD finally recycling again and taking off some heat since the last allocation at 1.1013. Sliced some cream at 1.1114 for + 72
London NYAM 16:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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jj// Perhaps its more symbolic sign of change than any real effect that the change may have. The fear that may be growing is that the rate rise was the last and the boom-bust of UK history is in play again. Too soon to say but I do think that the technical picture for cable is pretty stark now.
Makassar Alimin 16:41 GMT May 10, 2007
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move stop loss to BE for usdyen short today, see you guys tomorrow
hawthorne, ca thetrendmyfrenz 16:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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imo EUR/USD heading to 1.3/1.29 on this pullback, as i predicted a couple of weeks ago get ready for the 500-700 pt pullback...
USA Zeus 16:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK REVDAX 14:37 GMT May 10, 2007
Rev-Rev Yes it looks like. I am in as deep as I'll get on the long side.
Halifax CB 14:28 GMT May 10, 2007
Yes well the 1.1075ish level seems like the wand that put the kabosh on it.
GT
HK Kevin 16:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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Stop sell EUR/JPY at 162.23
lkwd jj 16:38 GMT May 10, 2007
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nyam how is the mkt digesting news of blairs resignation and browns takeover possibly? would think cable could slide a bit more just on that fact alone.
London NYAM 16:36 GMT May 10, 2007
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Hurricane season has increased liklihood of comming early and neing relentless. Should be somthing to factor in risk assessments.
lkwd jj 16:34 GMT May 10, 2007
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katrina=corruption at fema. what a shame and scam that the $$ from all over the world were mishandled. didnt hear the same from tsunami area. sad sad.
madrid mm 16:30 GMT May 10, 2007
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New Orleans, Ravaged by Katrina, Hit Again by Subprime Crisis
By Sharon L. Crenson
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Retired New Orleans cook Hattie Warren survived Hurricane Katrina. Now, at 82, she is struggling with the $100,000 subprime mortgage she took out to pay bills and ``have a few dollars'' five months before Lake Pontchartrain flooded the city. Click here
HK Kevin 16:27 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK revdex, you looks like a lonely but wealthy school teacher today in the forum. Range of USD/JPY 119.50-120.50, you will be more happy if it trades under 119.50
London NYAM 16:20 GMT May 10, 2007
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Bodrum// I am very happy to oblige. All the best friend.
Sofia mik 16:17 GMT May 10, 2007
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London Misha
yesterday I read somewhere , that Saudi Arabia is afraide from new war.
Bodrum OEE 16:17 GMT May 10, 2007
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London 13:50 GMT May 10, 2007
London 13:19 GMT May 10, 2007
Hello NYAM, I appreciate your (consistent) analysis. Thank you and good day.
NY RP 16:11 GMT May 10, 2007
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Interesting to see USD/JPY reactions with equities selling off. The correlation with Dow and USD/JPY has been amazing. Time will tell.
London Misha 16:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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Anyone hearing anything about Pres. Bush speaking at the Pentagon about some sort of military action in Iran(???)> Coming from my energy guys.
Mirdiff Mike 15:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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Any views on Eur/USD.
Sofia mik 15:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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any view on audyen, pls?
HK REVDAX 14:37 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 14:21//I know what you are describing but within the frame of a larger daily cycle your projectory could represent a buying opportunity of $/CAD....IMO
Halifax CB 14:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 14:21 GMT May 10, 2007
Not me at least, the easy trend seems to be over. But that doesn't mean that I'm a $Cad bull by any means...seems the $ is going to need a little viagra to get it up past the mid 1.12's....
USA Zeus 14:21 GMT May 10, 2007
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Nobody talking about USD/CAD's southbound trajectory using the 5dma law or hourly perpetuity payouts.
KL KL 14:19 GMT May 10, 2007
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ok in gbpusd long at 1.9821 sl 11...lets see
also long gold 673.6 sl 671
Halifax CB 14:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 14:07 GMT May 10, 2007
You could be right. OTOH it does seem to be restarting it's uptrend, and right now on the hourlies it seems to be travelling sideways more or less. For me, it might be a good buy in the low 90's, but I'll have to wait and see how things go for awhile...
HK Kevin 14:12 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK REVDAX 14:06 GMT, I am already over exposure to long dlr positions against Cable, CAD and Aussie. Can't do more on JPY. GT to you.
Mtl JP 14:08 GMT May 10, 2007
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NY RP 13:43 , expect Paulsen and W trumpet the Chinese - who are supposedly on a so-called buying mission ($4.3 billion being trumpeted) to be a political pablum smoke screen.
HK Kevin 14:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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Halifax CB 13:56 GMT, Aussie is supported by profit taking of short EUR/AUD over the past few days and this morning's employment data. After that, I think it will down to at least 8240
HK REVDAX 14:06 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 13:54 //$CAD going up while $/JY coming down?
UK Alex 14:03 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 13:56 GMT May 10, 2007
Is that where the printing presses are based. It explains why he needs the helicopter.
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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1354 GMT [Dow Jones] Cable has sold off sharply in the last hour or so on a combination of stops and technical trading, says a European bank trader. The pre-rate hike decline was blamed on stop-searching by a couple of big players, taking the rate down to the strong support area around $1.9850. This held through the rate hike, however the bounce to $1.99 met with fresh sellers, with technical stops taken out below $1.9840 and again below recent range lows of $1.9820. The technical picture for cable is now looking decidedly uneasy, and Royal Bank of Scotland says a sustained break of $1.9820 targets $1.9660.
Halifax CB 13:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 13:35 GMT May 10, 2007
Sorry, I already did (I set my SL at only 7 pips, and it hit while I was in snoozing :). I realize that was to tight, but better safe than sorry first time round :)
USA Zeus 13:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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Perhaps we will see Nauru save the US and continue the USD strength in coming sessions
HK Kevin 13:54 GMT May 10, 2007
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HK Kevin 17:45 GMT May 7, 2007
Cable have a downside target at 1.9780 which need to be filled.
Today's target is 1.9750.
slv sam, thik revdax is right.
USA Zeus 13:54 GMT May 10, 2007
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Perhaps we will see Naru save the US and continue the USD strength in coming sessions...
London NYAM 13:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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USDJPY should find it difficult to continue further now to break 120.70. Perhaps its already done. targetting 120/120.10 support again.
slv sam 13:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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usdjpy to 121.30 imho!GT
USA Zeus 13:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 13:45 GMT May 10, 2007
To include CA_SF as well in case SF_CA is a case of reverse polarity.
red bank fxdh 13:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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that is his job
USA Zeus 13:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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SF_CA 13:41 GMT May 10, 2007
If my quadratic is correct Wfak, CT Cris and now SF_CA are all the same person. Can you shed some light on this please?
NY RP 13:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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Bad reatil #s and deficits #s and magically Paulson appears on CNBC to say "Strong Dollar". It is what it is.
SF_CA 13:41 GMT May 10, 2007
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Reverse shs takes usd-cad to 1.1250 next
USA Zeus 13:36 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 23:01 GMT May 2, 2007
Looks like if GBP/USD 1.9860 gives way could see another push of USD strength. Still holding 2nd half from yesterday 2.0040 with a trailing stop
Sliced out another 1/4 for +220
HK Kevin 13:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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Halifax CB 02:46 GMT, when will you shoot down the Aussie?
The Netherlands Purk 13:33 GMT May 10, 2007
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Loonie is going to try and find the lows of the day as e/u retreats already...
Bugger is trapped.
And the fine indicator swissy did the good thing: going above 122 there...
HK REVDAX 13:33 GMT May 10, 2007
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Can anyone tell me how probable it is for $/CAD to go up while $/JY to come down? TIA
UK Alex 13:32 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 13:28 GMT May 10, 2007
Time to short GM then. :-))
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT May 10, 2007
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Dublin Flip 12:54//That is a sell signal of $/JY...lol
USA Zeus 13:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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Delray beach RMN 13:25 GMT May 10, 2007
RMN- MT not too clear to me. LT-
USA Zeus 23:55 GMT April 30, 2007
USD/JPY 125, 150, 175, 200+
GT :-)
Delray beach RMN 13:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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usa zeus looking at your down the road numbers where do you see the usd/jpy in 3 months time? view appreciated
USA Zeus 13:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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Looking down the road a bit-
EUR/USD 1.2777
GBP/USD 1.8777
UK Alex 13:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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Q&A Trichet: Notes US Said Strong Dollar In Own Interest
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:20 GMT May 10, 2007
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UK Alex //
sorry for misunderstanding - I got frustrated as we get a sign of rate hike and market sells off (probably sell the fact...)
looking on 2 hour charts we are going to the lower bands of the channels in:
EURUSD - it is in uncharted territory and possibly first stop is 1.3480..
GBPUSD - lower channel level at 1.9800 is probably targeted with eye on 1.9770 -- 38.2% fibo target..
London NYAM 13:19 GMT May 10, 2007
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Cable broken 1.9817. Implies that top is in place.
melbourne DC 13:17 GMT May 10, 2007
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the sarzoky question.
melbourne DC 13:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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just noticed usd index breached 82.05 .
Mtl JP 13:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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Dublin Flip 12:54, it is my understanding AHNC is scheduled to give a speech later today as well.
Appears that FDI into US is in 4th yr straight decline.
Gen dk 13:04 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
red bank fxdh 13:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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think Paulson giving a sit down interview and adreessing $ directly bears watching imo
UK Alex 13:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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USA Zeus 12:57 GMT May 10, 2007
The point being made was the unwillingness for Brazil -- which is one of the BRIC countries -- to allow its currency to rise further.
UK Alex 12:58 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 12:54 GMT May 10, 2007
There's a serious point in there with regards to commercial hedging and seasonality.
Dublin Flip 12:58 GMT May 10, 2007
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PAR the vast majority of European Union budget goes in farming subsidies and the vast majority of that goes to french farmers. Hasn't brought lower taxes or stimulated growth in France though.
USA Zeus 12:57 GMT May 10, 2007
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Must be Brazil again feeling obligated to save the US- or was it Camaroon this time? LMAO
NY RP 12:57 GMT May 10, 2007
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Talking the USD support is a matter of defense among the .8000 US Dollar index. Days away from Gold take off and Dollar dump. Nothing goes in a straight line especially when we are at crticial levels. Strong Dollar has been said since 120 in teh index and where are we now? Go by action not words.
The road ahead will be rocky but enjoyable to those who are on teh right side of the fence.
Dublin Flip 12:54 GMT May 10, 2007
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Hank Paulson says strong USDJPY is in his nett worth's (Goldies shares) interest -LOL
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:54 GMT May 10, 2007
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UK Alex 12:50 //
good one!
London NYAM 12:53 GMT May 10, 2007
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GBP selling may accelerate today by the price action it looks like it at least. my critical point at 19817 is pretty close.
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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[US TREASURY SECRETARY PAULSON] has repeated the standard line on US fx policy, though one that has not been heard much recently, saying a strong dollar is in the US interest. IGM
-- they say this mantra but weak USD was quoted here boosted a good part of the profits of the DJIA companies and thus contributed to the stock market rise... so one thing is said but what is important is other thing..
USA Zeus 12:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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The USD camp will grow and grow...
PAR 12:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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Irish economic performance very impressive thanks to low taxes made possible by european subsidies . Lol.
Como Perrie 12:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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as they stated several times am taking the conclusion that they do not want excess volatility in markets and so might take a long w/e bibi
UK Alex 12:50 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 12:47 GMT May 10, 2007
It's summer and no one cares?
red bank fxdh 12:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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full interview at 4 pm est
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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well - given the analysis that SV signals rate hike in 1 month and Mr. Trichet repeated it ywice by now in the introductory statement - what we conclusion can we draw now?
red bank fxdh 12:46 GMT May 10, 2007
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anybody see cnbc .. paulson interview with Maria Bartaromo.... strong $ policy comments
Como Perrie 12:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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RIC fxq 12:41 GMT May 10, 2007
as per hte european consumers the majority does not like to work on debts, credit cards, complex leveraged loans and similar. so for europe the only way is a longer term growth before consumption here starts clearly. now big money here is food industry and there are problems with china in regard to that as they do not respect health rules, but they have a big friend called wto that allows them dump on quality requirements as well as to dump on currencies etc. so far most multinationals (excpet the GM economist, even if car industries are not really multinationals) are disupting the concept of the states from where they were financed (by us...not US)
UK Alex 12:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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* Canada Mar Trade Surplus Lowest Since Dec '04;Record Imports
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:44 GMT May 10, 2007
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strongly vigilant was repeated
RIC fxq 12:41 GMT May 10, 2007
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Como Perrie 12:38 GMT
not the point at all, it is simply a question of CHN imports to US dropping, maybe they can ship them to the EU instead to make up for the slack and the US thunders into depression. :-)
Como Perrie 12:38 GMT May 10, 2007
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RIC fxq 12:33 GMT May 10, 2007
But if I do buy anything in US, most is written made in china. Even Dell computers are per the most part produced in China, but they are booked as american made products, just becouse the last assembling and testing job is made in texas
AZUSA 4x-ed 12:36 GMT May 10, 2007
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my mistake... try, tinyurl.com/22ljtj
CANBERRA JD 12:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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Looks like someone is holding the USD to prevent the USD index bounce. Well my friends, it is inevitable.. So i hope you holders get burnt :P
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trichet just said strong vigilance...
Como Perrie 12:34 GMT May 10, 2007
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AZUSA 4x-ed 12:33 GMT May 10, 2007
am not subscribed to Bony, think you need to be a client to watch It.
RIC fxq 12:33 GMT May 10, 2007
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Como Perrie 12:31 GMT
most of that from higher oil imports at higher prices however.
trade def w/CHN down, lowest since 5/2006.
Como Perrie 12:33 GMT May 10, 2007
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If you compare It to chinese trade surplus, you understand the previous telephone call between the american and chinese presidents.
Como Perrie 12:32 GMT May 10, 2007
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Next we do go over 800 billions total trade deficit.
Como Perrie 12:32 GMT May 10, 2007
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63.9 trade def record was 69
Como Perrie 12:31 GMT May 10, 2007
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deficit 3 plus bios higher than expected at 63 plus
UK Alex 12:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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PAR 12:20 GMT May 10, 2007
We know this already.
Como Perrie 12:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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Mtl JP 12:22 GMT May 10, 2007
Just watching JP what's the current state of the market. But looking from the whole numbers of calls around looks this chaos global trade went bit out of control from GM to stats to M3 to inflation and everything. So maybe they think better hold unless It goes.
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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EURJPY - - Mizuho favor a short position with price under the 9 daily MA and holdnig under 163
Commerzbank - RSI divregence on Daily chart - and eroding the uptrend channel
- I myself looking on 4 h chart see the mid term MAs cross to follow the 20ma dive... also DM didn't cross now only wait to see if the correctional flag will hold around 162.95/163
last line that will negate the short scenario is at 163.15/20
Como Perrie 12:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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PAR 12:20 GMT May 10, 2007
Earlier there was a telephone call between the american and chinese president. The latter concerned about economic developments. So this is smog for big affairs I guess we will notice just in months ahead
Mtl JP 12:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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Perrie 12:05, 71% in the survey. I think it is wishful thinking by the "asset protectors" crowd dreaming of the FED riding to the rescue.
PAR 12:20 GMT May 10, 2007
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China agrees to buy $ 4 billion of Us goods before econ talks .
Como Perrie 12:20 GMT May 10, 2007
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China's CB was just one the wires, but no big effect. It says some about the current held Usd treasuries not to be diversified, but If yuan moved from approx 8 to 7.75/70 and considering the yuan is a basket, then they sold most probably, second option is they just booking the usd/yuan losses into the basket, but then reserves should be dropping not rising?
Mumbai Deepak 12:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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ECB Communication Under Trichet
*** Format *** Month: Action; Key Statement; Time until next rate hike occurred
*** 2005 ***
- Jan: Unchanged at 2.00%; Continued vigilance; Next hike in 11 months
- Feb: Unchanged at 2.00%; Continued vigilance; Next hike in 10 months
- Mar: Unchanged at 2.00%; Continued vigilance; Next hike in 9 months
- Apr: Unchanged at 2.00%; Continued vigilance; Next hike in 8 months
- May: Unchanged at 2.00%; Continued vigilance ; Next hike in 7 months
- Jun: Unchanged at 2.00%; Remain vigilant; Ongoing vigilance; Next hike in 6 months
- July: Unchanged at 2.00%; Monitor carefully; Ongoing vigilance; Next hike in 5 months
- Aug: No meeting held; Next hike in 4 months
- Sep: Unchanged at 2.00%; Particular vigilance; Next hike in 3 months
- Oct: Unchanged at 2.00%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 2 months
- Nov: Unchanged at 2.00%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Dec: 25 bps hike to 2.25%; Monitor closely; Next hike in 3 months
*** 2006 ***
- Jan: Unchanged at 2.25%; Monitor very closely; Next hike in 2 months
- Feb: Unchanged at 2.25%; Vigilance: Next hike in 1 month
- Mar: 25 bps hike to 2.50%; Monitor closely; Next hike in 3 months
- Apr: Unchanged at 2.50%; Monitor very closely; Next hike in 2 months
- May: Unchanged at 2.50%; Vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Jun: 25 bps hike to 2.75%; Monitor closely; Next hike in 2 months
- Jul: Unchanged at 2.75%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Aug (3rd): 25 bps hike to 3.00%; Monitor very closely; Next hike in 2 months
- Aug (31st): Unchanged at 3.00%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Oct: 25 bps hike to 3.25%; Monitor very closely; Next hike in 2 months
- Nov: Unchanged at 3.25%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Dec: 25 bps hike to 3.50%; Monitor Closely; Next hike in 3 months
*** 2007 ***
- Jan: Unchanged at 3.50%; Asked whether we can rule out Feb hike; Next hike in 2 months
- Note that in January Trichet then clarified by saying he was not sending a signal for a Feb rate hike
- Feb: Unchanged at 3.50%; Strong vigilance; Next hike in 1 month
- Mar: 25 bps hike to 3.75%; Monitor Closely
UK Alex 12:14 GMT May 10, 2007
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That's bad then because that means growth is still contracting.
PAR 12:11 GMT May 10, 2007
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Slowing US consumer,a declining dollar,a rising yuam, and falling oil prices may mean a substantial lower US trade deficit
Como Perrie 12:05 GMT May 10, 2007
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one trade... Bloomberg reports a survey that FED to stay on hold into year end.
Como Perrie 12:04 GMT May 10, 2007
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Am very slow as of recent, just on new trade made from yesterday.
Melbourne Qindex 12:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle projected series the market is testing the upper barrier at 1.2139* // 1.2196. The daily cycle charts indicate that the lower barrier is located at 1.2110 // 1.2126. A projected resistant barrier is expected at [1.2185] - [1.2190].
Daily Cycle : ... 1.2062 - 1.2083* - 1.2094 - 1.2110 // 1.2126* -1.2147 - 1.2158 - 1.2169* - [1.2190] - 1.2211* - 1.2222 - 1.2233 - 1.2254* // 1.2270 - 1.2286 - 1.2297* - 1.2318 ...
Como Perrie 11:58 GMT May 10, 2007
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UK Alex 11:52 GMT May 10, 2007
I really do not know if It will change or when. Tend to think things ever change so far, some earlier some later. So far take a look to a smaller transcript from Mouldin from a month ago approx that explains yours.
The Liscio Report, among other things, tracks sales tax receipts from the various states. They report a serious deterioration in sales tax receipts in March. "In March only 18% of the states in our survey hit or exceeded their estimated sales tax collections, and levels in just over 30% of the states were lower than they were in March 2006, some quite steeply so." (www.theliscioreport.com)
Again, if inflation is 2.5%, you would expect sales tax receipts to grow year over year, not drop as they did in 30% of the states. Part of the reasons suggested were lower spending on home materials, as well as increased unemployment in some of the states, especially the Mid-west.
GVI john 11:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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from GVI...
At 12:30 GMT (08:30 EDT). The U.S. March trade deficit is seen coming in at -$60.0bln vs. -$58.4bn in February.
Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.0866 - 1.1118 (May 07 - May 11). The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.0950* - 1.1034* - 1.1118*. The upper barrier of the daily cycle is located at 1.1081 // 1.1093.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.0936 - 1.0952* - 1.0960 - 1.0972 // 1.0984* - 1.1000 - 1.1008 - 1.1016* - [1.1032] - 1.1048* - 1.1056 - 1.1065 - 1.1081* // 1.1093 - 1.1105 - 1.1113* - 1.1129 ...
Como Perrie 11:55 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trade deficit today, since considered less relevant than once in the current neo economics of global wanders, is expected at 60 bios, totaling a deficit of some 750 approx billions.
GVI john 11:55 GMT May 10, 2007
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Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
GBP/JPY
GBP/CHF
USD/CAD
CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI
5/10/2007 10:26 GMT
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD USD/CAD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
Last 1.3527 120.41 1.2185 1.9868 1.1086 0.6808 162.89
High 1.3564 120.44 1.2191 1.9962 1.1089 0.6808 163.02
Low 1.3523 119.96 1.216 1.9868 1.1053 0.6785 162.34
Simple mva
5 day 1.3559 120.13 1.2118 1.9842 1.1029 0.6797 162.43
10 day 1.3586 120.01 1.2089 1.9863 1.1050 0.6804 162.53
20 day 1.3586 119.51 1.2065 1.9899 1.1141 0.6794 161.63
50 day 1.3412 118.47 1.2107 1.9653 1.1417 0.6788 158.13
100 day 1.3232 119.31 1.2223 1.9591 1.1551 0.6720 157.22
200 day 1.3032 118.27 1.2275 1.9278 1.1400 0.6724 153.58
GVI john 11:53 GMT May 10, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
Auckland peat 11:53 GMT May 10, 2007
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well at 1.6290 its decision time for the Eur Jpy
at this level we have (coinciding) a 61.8% retracement of the fall from 163.59 to 161.90
and a 161% extension of the first rise from 161.90 to 162.57.
UK Alex 11:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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Como Perrie 11:39 GMT May 10, 2007
That's monetary inflation to prevent the banking system from collapsing. Look at corporate profits as a percentage of GDP over the last few years and compare that to real wages. Then consider the insatiable appetite for consumerism and ask yourself how they can afford to do it. That's where the real risk lies - the overindebted consumer. Higher rates anyone?
Lahore FM 11:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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ECB*,no change.
Lahore FM 11:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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enc,no change.
Como Perrie 11:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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Key eurusd resistances are placed in the range between 1.36 to 1.3630, unless below we count more side to lower development.
Como Perrie 11:43 GMT May 10, 2007
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Previous just a note to future years of much higher inflationary pressures, not a buying or selling advice. Just a reminder about chaotical stats we are dealing with this new century.
Lahore FM 11:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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vigilance and strong vigilance are key phrases to look for in Tirchet's press conference at 1230 gmt.
Como Perrie 11:39 GMT May 10, 2007
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Knees would be knocking audibly in the credit markets, if the Fed still reported M3 growth. ***Annual growth (SGS Ongoing M3 series) accelerated sharply in April to 12.9%, from 11.7% in March. [ See chart below / Bill ]*** The last time annual M3 growth approached 13%, the Fed was liquefying the financial system in the wake of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Before that, the year was 1981 and official annual CPI inflation was running about 10%. If 10% inflation sounds familiar, that is roughly the level of annual CPI inflation that would be reported today using the CPI methodologies of 1980.
UK Alex 11:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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Another “key concern” was that the consumer price index – the Bank’s target measure of inflation – was drawn up on the basis of too narrow a sample set, it said.
UK Alex 11:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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Btw, there's a bit of an argument going on between the Bank of England and the Office of National Statistics regarding the quality of its data. I believe it was the service sector data which they were most concerned with.
London NYAM 11:23 GMT May 10, 2007
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Cable Breach of 19925 will extend sideways action (rangebound).
UK Alex 11:21 GMT May 10, 2007
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Vienna GD 11:16 GMT May 10, 2007
The CPI is fiddled, I'm concentrating on RPI. Historically, keeping CPI in check has always resulted in RPI reverting back to its mean, but this time it could be different. Time will tell.
Vienna GD 11:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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UK Alex 11:07 GMT May 10, 2007
* BOE: CPI To Fall Back On Lower Import Price Inflation
* BOE: CPI To Fall Back On Lower Gas, Electricity Prices
hahaha ... energy getting cheaper day by day ... those liars are learning from Kampo ... deflation just around the corner ... sheeesh, geezz
UK Alex 11:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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* BOE: CPI To Fall Back On Lower Import Price Inflation
* BOE: CPI To Fall Back On Lower Gas, Electricity Prices
* BOE: M/T Risks To Term To Inflation Remain On Upside
* BOE: Businesses More Able To Push Prices Up
* BOE: Margin Of Spare Capacity In Firms Looks Limited
* BOE: CPI Likely To Fall Back To +2.0% This Year
* BOE: Underlying Picture Of Steady Growth In UK
* BOE: International Econ Expansion Remains Robust
PAR 11:06 GMT May 10, 2007
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More UK interest rate hikes expected. Booming UK economy and inflation risks remain to upside .
Makassar Alimin 11:04 GMT May 10, 2007
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guys can scream for more usdjpy strength but i am shorting 120.38 gl
Lahore FM 11:04 GMT May 10, 2007
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GVI john 11:00 GMT May 10, 2007
BOE +25bp to 5.50%
UK Alex 11:02 GMT May 10, 2007
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* BOE: Credit, Broad Money Continue To Grow Rapidly
* BOE: Consumer Spending Has Been Volatile
* BOE: Business Investment Stronger Than Expected
* BOE: Output Growth Has Remained Firm
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:02 GMT May 10, 2007
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as widely expected BOE +0.25
Makassar Alimin 11:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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i think gbp short established yesterday should be covered now, 1.98xx is seen, i think we could slowly building a base here for launch higher over next several weeks, Dr Q's low around 1.984x is also well followed
Maribor 11:01 GMT May 10, 2007
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My guess for next few hours: EUR up, GBP down, CHF down, GBPJPY down, EURJPY up. Hmm...
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:57 GMT May 10, 2007
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About $62 million entered circulation that was later deemed fake in the 2006 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30. That represents a more than 10% increase from the prior year and a 69% rise from just three years earlier, according to the latest data from the Secret Service. In contrast, the European Central Bank said around 565,000 counterfeit bank notes had to be withdrawn from circulation in 2006, compared to the 10.6 billion notes in use. The total was down slightly from the 2005 figure of 579,000.
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Sounds to me like these crooks know how to hedge their bets...
slv sam 10:49 GMT May 10, 2007
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euro today to 1.3630 or to 1.3450 is 50/50 chance imo!GT
Como Perrie 10:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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UK Alex 10:32 GMT May 10, 2007
Inflation more likely will rise next year above forecasts world wide.
UK Alex 10:32 GMT May 10, 2007
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Mtl JP 10:22 GMT May 10, 2007
Quarterly Inflation Report is due for release on May 16, so I'm not anticipating any shocks ahead of this. Another 25bp in June or July is quite possible, if not certain. I believe the market is focusing on what inflation will be in two years' time. If it looks likely we will overshoot the 2% target, then there will be fireworks!
Como Perrie 10:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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In general the market has been coupla weeks now reducing net short usd positions..some agressive turned already. Very complex distribution currently imo
Mtl JP 10:22 GMT May 10, 2007
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Alex 10:08 / spook ? little wood chip here and there would keep the market geussing for a potential 2nd 25er down the road, a 50 would remove that speculation to a large extent.
Como Perrie 10:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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cable below 1.98 does not have anymore much room to be said bullish
Como Perrie 10:15 GMT May 10, 2007
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ALso US Budget later on and Canada New Housing price index too.
Como Perrie 10:12 GMT May 10, 2007
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Agree Alex, but then one never knows...there's is a certain condition when they might act heavily if they want to regain control of the monetary poliicy for next years faster. On the other side FOMC is yet under complex times and Bernanke is risking to loose the control on market fundamentals. Ecb is for nothing but the Trichet speech will be sought for confirmation upon the factored June hike. Candadian trade, US trade too. All in all am not so much interested in trading, but will watch some
Como Perrie 10:09 GMT May 10, 2007
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But with jerk politicians you never know
UK Alex 10:08 GMT May 10, 2007
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The MPC doesn't want to spook the market, so a 25bp hike it will be.
Como Perrie 10:08 GMT May 10, 2007
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Brown so far might be better than Blair imo
Como Perrie 10:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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JP seen on bloomberg ranges of possible hikes....
Misha...he will just say when he exactly is going to step out from labours...but we know already he is out from last year
Mtl JP 09:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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IF BoE raises 50, me thinks wait to let market pop about 80 pips and then short the farm.
anyone want to propose trade tactic ?
Melbourne Qindex 09:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.9841 - 2.0068.
Mtl JP 09:39 GMT May 10, 2007
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Perrie 08:36, whose 50 pointer concesus is that pray tell. tia
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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CANBERRA JD //
Ashraf Laidi yesterday wrote:
With the Reserve Bank of Australia having downgraded its underlying inflation forecast to 2.4% from 2.7% and manufacturers already feeling the pinch of the strong Aussie, a figure of below 8K is likely to prompt fresh selling in the currency, targeting 0.8245-40the 38% retracement of the 0.6540-0.6869 rise. Only a payrolls figure above 15K and an unemployment rate at 4.5% or less could help call up the 0.83 figure, to target 0.8330.
Melbourne Qindex 09:16 GMT May 10, 2007
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USD/CAD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.1081 // 1.1093.
London Misha 09:09 GMT May 10, 2007
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Como Perrie
Not 'officially' yet - that is why he is jetting up to his constituency in Sedgefield to do it.
Auckland peat 09:04 GMT May 10, 2007
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CAD had a 261% extension at 1.1057 and now that price has moved above the highest point of the lowest day a buy signal is issued. Target is the 161% extension at 1.1370. Stop should be at 1.0970 if risk profile can accept that.
Thats what I reckon anyway.
Como Perrie 09:02 GMT May 10, 2007
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London Misha 09:00 GMT May 10, 2007
Blair already announce his resignation
London Misha 09:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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Is it just me or is there more than just coincidence that Tony Blair should announce his resignation at the exact same time that the BOE will (probably) announce a rate hike????
Nice jet by the way - good carbon footprint!
CANBERRA JD 08:59 GMT May 10, 2007
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http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0
This is the employment data for AUD.
Having spoken to someone who compiles this data, I am told that the only reason the number was so good, was because there was a larger survey. He also said to expect this to be the top of the employment trend, and unemployment to move back towards the 5% mark from here.
Como Perrie 08:48 GMT May 10, 2007
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EurJpy might extend on higher very surprisingly so far, not all today however.
Como Perrie 08:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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There's so much smog on forex today that am tempted to get half a day off
Como Perrie 08:38 GMT May 10, 2007
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I'll still stay very soft however ... too soon to move maybe as of yet..but who knows It is more a joker than a trader
The Netherlands Purk 08:37 GMT May 10, 2007
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Bugger: it is still not easy to break this 16218 thingy, so it is up today upside there is 16335 and 16350 again.
Como Perrie 08:36 GMT May 10, 2007
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Consenus for UK rates is for a rise into 5 3/4 pct
moscow mike 08:34 GMT May 10, 2007
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Same model, which gave a sell signal on USDCAD at 1790 gave a buy signal 4 hours ago at 1060....
Might be wrong as ever.
GT
Como Perrie 08:33 GMT May 10, 2007
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The dummy world of consensuses :) lol UK ind. prod has improoved from previous by 0.5
moscow mike 08:29 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 08:24 GMT May 10, 2007
Hi. I am not following conventional analysis tools, but i agree with your defense level.
GT!
NY tim 08:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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GBP/USD after data back to 2.00xx
Plovidv Gotin 08:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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Cable under 1.9910--->1.9183.GL
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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hi Mike, false break up?
I watch 2 chart setups - one with MACD and other with Directional Movement + ADX -- they both show some strength in this up move...
last line of defense is around 163.15 where is the down trendline...
moscow mike 08:14 GMT May 10, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 08:00 GMT May 10, 2007
Might be wrong but feeling indicator points to a false break
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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EURJPY 2 hour chart is correcting in a flag like channel up within the bigger revrsal channel - however is the upper flag line around 162.95 is decisively broken.. maybe we are up for new highs around 164..
madrid mm 08:00 GMT May 10, 2007
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shanghai bc 07:55 GMT May 10, 2007
BC, it looks to me like the same old story over and over, ie always easier to blame the others. It is like the traders blaming the market for losing money, while he/she is the only responsible for pulling the trigger imho
Gen dk 07:58 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
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madrid mm 07:56 GMT May 10, 2007
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Auckland peat 07:47 GMT May 10, 2007
I hope your trading do not take you that far 8-)
shanghai bc 07:55 GMT May 10, 2007
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madrid mm 06:35 GMT May 10, 2007
Why can those learned law makers punish their own multi-nationals like GM,Boeing,Ford for leaving their beloved workers behind for more profits overseas..Smart parents try to educate their own children at home first before they ever try to educate other's kids..
slv sam 07:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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usdjpy may fly to 122 by tomorrow!GT
Auckland peat 07:47 GMT May 10, 2007
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madrid mm 07:22
its all about the throat slitting !
Gen dk 07:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
madrid mm 07:25 GMT May 10, 2007
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London's Black-Cab Drivers Turn Bearish on City -
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- London's black-cab drivers are growing pessimistic about the economy and say they're getting less business from bankers and lawyers, a survey of drivers showed.
Click here
madrid mm 06:35 GMT May 10, 2007
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Highlights
WSJ : The U.S. Congress appears to be gearing up to punish China and, perhaps, Japan for currency policies that many lawmakers argue are hurting American companies and workers.
After years of heated debate over the domestic impact of the weak yuan and yen, the Democratic takeover of the House and Senate increased the odds that Congress will take steps this year to strong-arm Beijing and Tokyo into allowing their currencies to rise against USD..
WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: The Fed signaled continued wariness on inflation, leaving interest rates unchanged and giving no sign it is inching toward an interest-rate cut.
BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says that a prolonged BoJ low-rate policy will encourage an inefficient allocation of capital, including the yen carry trade. Keeping low interest rates could boost stimulative effects and hurt sustained growth.
BoJ Fukui says Japan real interest rates are relatively low in comparison to the economy. Higher risk if BoJ does not adjust rates when the economy is moving in line with its scenario.
BoJ Seiji Nakamura says Japanese firms may have problems unless they can rise prices moderately.
BoJ Hidetoshhi Kamezaki says tightening output gap not boosting prices because of globalistation.
SNB Thomas Jordan as large part of SNB hike has been made, but "journey not over yet." CHF development very impoart for assessing monetary situation.
Australia employment soared by 49,600 in April, 4 times mkt exp of 10,000. Unemployment rate fall to fresh 30+ year lows of 4.4%.
Australia Treasurer Peter Costello says have to quite careful not to stoke wage pressures.
Greenback started Asia session in firm footing after Fed FOMC statement signalled no rate cuts ahead as concerns are still on inflation.
Focus now on BoE MPC rate hike at 1100GMT - 25bps or 50bps - 4CAST sees 25bps to 5.50% - bring Repo Rate above Fed Funds of 5.25%.
EUR eye ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet at 1230GMT after ECB decision at 1145GMT to leave rates unchanged, Trichet likely to signal "strong vigilance" for a June 6 rate hike to 4.00%.
USD/JPY stoploss orders were hit above 120.20 to 120.24, withEUR/JPY spiking to 162.74 from 162.50 as large Japanese trust and mega -city banks bought in early Asia, helped by expectation of good go-to-bi Nakane fixing today.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY then came under pressure after fixing, as focus turns to huge US Treasury quarterly $20bln coupons + $65.87bln redemption next week on May 15 on expectation Japanese custodian names will sell. It then remained around 120, kept huge 120/ 120.10 option expiries, Tokyo cut. Talks of more good offers ahead of 120.30-50 b4 120.50 options.
Aussie is the big mover today, rallying after the much stronger than expected jobs data. AUD/USD jumping to 1-week highs of 0.8325 from 0.8290, AUD/JPY hitting 3-week high 99.88 from 99.55, while AUD/NZD also hitting 3-week highs of 1.1346, after finally taking at the key 1.1300 handle, as strong Aus jobs data trigger talks of RBA hike, despite the recent dovish RBA MPS.
Key focus now on AUD/JPY, with talks of huge options 100/100.10 capping. AUD last above 100 on April 17, when it hit 15-year highs of 100.04. Hearing UK funds, big 4 Aussie names good Kiwi sellers today, and AUD/NZD buyers.
Nikkei +0.05% or 8.17pts 17,756, Toyota lower post results. JGBs lower, with BoJ Governor Fukui still pointing to more rate hikes despite low CPI. 10-yr yield +0.005%, 1.670%.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.96/120.24, EUR/USD 1.3523/1.3547, GBP/USD 1.9929/1.9950, USD/CHF 1.2177/1.2191, AUD/USD 0.8225/0.8273, NZD/USD 0.7322/0.7360.
Melbourne Qindex 06:31 GMT May 10, 2007
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EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.3523 - 1.3759. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the lower limit of daily cycle reference at 1.3576. As indicates in the current daily cycle projected series the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the upper barrier at 1.35673* // 1.3587. The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.3523 - 1.3641.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.3416 - 1.3434* - 1.3442 - 1.3455 // 1.3469* - 1.3486 - 1.3495 - 1.3504* - [1.3521] - 1.3538* - 1.3547 - 1.3556 - 1.3573* // 1.3587 - 1.3600 - 1.3608* - 1.3626 ...
madrid mm 05:52 GMT May 10, 2007
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Yesterday's hawkish FOMC statement stressing the risk of inflation puts import/export prices in focus. Pressure on non-oil import prices could raise new concern over inflation. 8-)
madrid mm 05:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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gm fx jedi , blmbrg currecie news Click here
Melbourne Qindex 04:42 GMT May 10, 2007
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GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle): As shown in my weekly cycle charts the pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.9841 - 2.0068. The daily cycle projected series suggests that the upside targeting point is 2.0045 when it is able to trade above1.9992.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.9727 - 1.9762* - 1.9780 - 1.9806 // 1.9833* - 1.9868 - 1.9886 - 1.9903* - [1.9939] - 1.9974* - 1.9992 - 2.0010 - 2.0045* // 2.0071 - 2.0098 - 2.0116* - 2.0151 ...
Melbourne Qindex 03:51 GMT May 10, 2007
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EUR/AUD (Weekly Cycle)
: The weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.6381 - 1.6728. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6381. The daily cycle charts indicate that 1.6266* is a projected supporting point. It is likely that the market will consolidate between 1.6266* - 1.6355* for the time being. A projected barrier is located at 1.6374 - 1.6377.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.6044 - 1.6088* - 1.6110 - 1.6144 // 1.6177* - 1.6221 - 1.6244 - 1.6266* - [1.6310] - 1.6355* - 1.6377 - 1.6399 - 1.6443* // 1.6477 - 1.6510 - 1.6532* - 1.6577 ...
Melbourne Qindex 03:28 GMT May 10, 2007
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AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.8107 - 0.8366. The critical level is located at [0.8204] - 0.8237. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading the critical level at 0.8237. The market is trading above 0.8302 and the next weekly cycle quantized level is 0.8366. The daily cycle indicates that [0.8324] is a barrier which is the midpoint reference of the daily cycle projected series. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 0.8351*. The upside targeting point is 0.8373. A projected resistant level is located at 0.8420* - 0.8422.
Daily Cycle : ... 0.8226 - 0.8242* - 0.8251 - 0.8263 // 0.8275* - 0.8291 - 0.8300 - 0.8308* - [0.8324] - 0.8340* - 0.8348 - 0.8357 - 0.8373* // 0.8385 - 0.8397 - 0.8406* - 0.8422 ...
toronto df 03:19 GMT May 10, 2007
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Does anyone have any idea where the gbp/dlr is moving?...
Halifax CB 02:46 GMT May 10, 2007
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Aud/us Chart V. narrow SL, target in the 80's?
Halifax CB 02:41 GMT May 10, 2007
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Well, the outside lines of the KF with an autogain has started turning down, guess I'll short audusd....first time for everything (I haven't tried running it on the minutes before now...)
hk ab 02:10 GMT May 10, 2007
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would like to open a/j short near 100 marks....
HK Kevin 01:46 GMT May 10, 2007
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Any news out on AUD?
Sydney ACC 01:45 GMT May 10, 2007
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EMPLOYMENT
increased by 49,600 to 10,416,600. Full-time employment increased by 11,600 to 7,453,300 and part-time employment increased by 38,000 to 2,963,400.
UNEMPLOYMENT
decreased by 5,600 to 482,700. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased by 6,700 to 334,200 and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased by 1,000 to 148,500.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0%, and the female unemployment rate remained at 4.9%.
PARTICIPATION RATE
increased by 0.2 percentage points to 64.9%.
Halifax CB 01:40 GMT May 10, 2007
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CA_SF 01:24 GMT May 10, 2007
wiat for signs of a st top audusd and then sell for a drift down...
CA_SF 01:24 GMT May 10, 2007
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everyone is pasting news instead of giving views...
so .. any opinion on gbp/usd?
^_^ Thanks
Syd 00:12 GMT May 10, 2007
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Composition of today's NZ 1Q jobs data "more RBNZ friendly" than expected, says Goldman Sachs JBWere senior economist Shamubeel Eaqub, noting employment surge driven largely by part-time employment; job losses in construction sector offset by increases in public, external sectors. Thinks labor market "crucial lynchpin in current economic cycle", with job losses likely catalyst to unraveling debt-fueled inflationary growth NZ currently experiencing. Tips labor demand will reverse 2H07, and while there'll be more hawkish rhetoric from RBNZ until then, sufficiently mixed data, high NZD should mean interest rates on hold for calendar 2007.
Syd 00:07 GMT May 10, 2007
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Fed May Yet Hike Rates In 2H Of 2007- JPMorgan
Fed may start rate hikes again in 2H of year, says JP Morgan Chase's Tohru Sasaki; central bank likely to keep rates unchanged for now, but 2H "may force the resumption of interest rate hikes on a background of inflationary pressure rising on a U.S. economic recovery." FOMC stood pat last night while repeating caution over inflation outlook, indicating rate cuts unlikely in near term
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