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Forex Forum Archive for 05/11/2007

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UK Alex 22:22 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Person Familiar Cites Paulson Tensions With German Min

A person familiar with the decision said Paulson's planned absence, in part, reflects tensions in his relationship with German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, who skipped the April meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers in Washington in favor of a family vacation to Namibia.

Auckland peat 21:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
dont believe it myself but CAD went to 1.1100 , limit buy hit at 1105.

Gen dk 21:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 20:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The implication is that, if 400 years of candlesticks make a difference, these pairs will not complete their profiles without tests of the recent lows. That does not signify a turn of trend merely a test of trend...for now.

London NYAM 20:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY opened the week at 120.12 it looks to close within 5 pips. The formation on weeklys is intersting among candlestick watchers. Similarly formations on other crosses appear to be growing candles od similar although not as prominant interest.

moscow mike 20:26 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:13 GMT May 11, 2007
Well, nothing changed. Just some flip flop action. NZDYEN and AUDYEN are set for a good correction. IMVHO.

Halifax CB 19:48 GMT May 11, 2007
Yes CB, keep up good work and smth will be worked out of your bands!

GT

USA BAY 20:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
MOSCOW MIKE,

Came out of nzd/yen short with 10 pips. What do you think of current levels. tia

NY Ed 19:57 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
I mean Halifax

NY Ed 19:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Mike

Halifax CB 19:48 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Thx mike...I've almost got the bugs worked out of the auto-gain version (which seems to be working really well on 1 day averages on the hourlies or less); I'll post it (I hope) this weekend if anyone wants to play around with it. It's a lot easier to use than the standard KF version, and probably better for catching in/out signals...

dc CB 19:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm


gwe/all

moscow mike 19:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:23 GMT May 11, 2007
I like your chart in action, Would take a nice long from 161.8x right to 162.3x!

The Netherlands Purk 19:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
tick tick tick to the high, been that for quite a while now and nobody seems to listen, pitty. People are afraid to take profit i guess. e/j was a long today.

New York BW 19:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
test - have a nice weekend

Sofia mik 19:00 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
last deal for week;short eurodoll from 3527
n/wend

NY Ed 18:52 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ...you thinking cable below 9816 today?? why??

USA Zeus 18:44 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Besides he probably had something more important to attend to like NBA playoff games.

USA Zeus 18:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
JJ- Just showing them which boss has the most muscle.

Mtl JP 18:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
JJ - sulking more than likely. runs thru the adminstration.

LKWD JJ 18:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
maybe security risk?

Gen dk 18:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 18:27 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Paulson to skip G8 finance meeting in German Potsdam due to tensions with German finance minister Steinbrueck ,who did not attend Washington meeting .

LKWD JJ 18:24 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 13:41 GMT May 11, 2007
sold cable 19816.
------------------------
will close before day is out.

USA BAY 18:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Have a great week end to everyone. See you FOREXERS next week. Take care.

Geneva DS 18:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ENJOY ALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND.... there will be plenty of super good things to see and to think about... the world is not ending... STAY POSITIVE>.... good opportunities are waiting for us all... we have to believe in that.... all the best...

Sofia mik 17:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Nice w/d to all !

LKWD JJ 17:52 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Facts on hedge funds
--------------------
was looking for stat on blowups .

dc CB 17:34 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
One reason the CD is at record levels.
Potash

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=pot&p=d&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

dc CB 17:27 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
So it goes.

13:19 U.S. Official says unaware of new terror threat beyond weeks-old warning in Germany - Reuters

German Interior Ministry says security situation in Germany has not changed. U.S Counterterrorism official says no "new urgency" to terror threat in Germany.

Halifax CB 17:23 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Just closed the eurjpy short; tiny profit (7pips)but a good test of the auto-gain KF...
Chart (FWIW, with this filter you just wait for an unusual event on the longer timescales, and track it on the shorter...)

USA Zeus 17:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:14 GMT May 11, 2007
LOL- A little more along the lines of Norman Maclean.
Have a good one!

Gen dk 17:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 17:14 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:43 GMT May 11, 2007
The markets remind us that eventually, all things merge into one, and a river runs through it.

hmmm...either someone is drinking up their profits, or reading too much Cormac McCarthy....Enjoy your weekend!

Gen dk 17:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 17:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:08 GMT May 11, 2007
Maybe ABC gets their info from an inside line to the CIA lol....

Mtl JP 17:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ABC seems to be way behind the ball:

21.04.2007
Germany Says Bolstered US Security Islamist-Linked

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2450554,00.html

dc CB 17:06 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
12:52 Follow Up: U.S., Germans fear imminent terror attack - ABCNews.com

ABCNews.com reports that U.S. and German officials fear terrorists are in the advanced planning stages of an attack on U.S. military personnel or tourists in Germany. Law enforcement officials tell the Blotter on ABCNews.com that U.S. air marshals have been diverted to provide expanded protection of flights between Germany and the United States. "The information behind the threat is very real," a senior U.S. official told ABC News. German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schauble told reporters, "The danger level is high. We are part of the global threat by Islamist terrorism." Of particular concern, according to U.S. and German law enforcement officials, is Patch Barracks, the headquarters for U.S. European Command, near Stuttgart. Security at all U.S. military and diplomatic facilities has been increased in the last month following reports that suspected terrorists had conducted surveillance of the Patch Barracks facility. "The attack would be designed to create high numbers of casualties among both Germans and the U.S. military," said ABC News consultant Richard Clarke, a former White House counterterror official.

LKWD JJ 17:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Stocks Advance on Rate Outlook; Nvidia Shares Rally

By Michael Patterson

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose the most in two weeks after producer prices eased, spurring speculation the Federal Reserve has leeway to cut interest rates.
------------------------------------------------
looks like fx mkt has tuned out to the stock mkt.

USA Zeus 16:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The markets remind us that eventually, all things merge into one, and a river runs through it.

London NYAM 16:34 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Im off too. But Cable rebound looks sickly. USDJPY rebound however is still up for grabs as too corrective or reversal again. Certainly a dollar play on JPY yet Euro strengthened (vs cable too)...interesting. gl gt

USA Zeus 16:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:30 GMT May 11, 2007
All set for heavy trading action in CME and ICE among the usual suspects.



Ahh- Just took +3 on ICE(man) to match the spectacular +17 on CME. Now about that 100m Feadship...

Cali mmm 16:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Good weekend to all here and good trades next week !

USA Zeus 16:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:11 GMT May 11, 2007
Ahh yes. Thank you. 21k Could make JP's blood boil however. LOL
GT :-)

UK Alex 16:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:10 GMT May 11, 2007
There's a post you might like on the futures forum.

USA Zeus 16:10 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Keep an eye on the SP 500. Could have an fx effect

Sofia mik 16:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
small long str/aud 3812

USA Zeus 15:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Well well taking my +17 on CME stock here.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:43 //
hello - nice to read from you - tnx for the notice!
I maintain "strong vigilance" to the unwinding of this move..

moscow mike 15:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
re yens.., Shake in and out is a typical for THE BIG BEN move.

Halifax CB 15:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Friday afternoon trade, eurjpy, SL 162.6....

HK Kevin 15:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:23 GMT, I have revised my trading strategy to take profit at critical support/resistance with trailing stop for all trading after reading Martin's post several days ago.
Lucky closed half of my short AUD, Cable positions this Asian opening (another half got stop at b/e) and long USD/CAD positions at 1.1158. Now only hold short USD/JPY at 120.06.
Looking at charts of almost all pairs, it's still USD bullish (except JPY). Let's see today/this weekly close to decide next direction.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:44 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM :)
yes - it was sucha relief as I saw Jay post the .618 retrace in E/J -- there is always smtg more that one doesn't notice until people with better experience point to it..

Hong Kong Ahe 15:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:32 GMT - Carry Trade is back and NZDYEN has been recovered yesterday lost. Gordon Brown has been announced to run for PM and it should be no problem at all as expected many months ago. GBPUSD will be back to 2.0000 level and above it. Watch the level of 1.9842 of GBPUSD. If it breaks, the down trend of GBPUSD is over. EURYEN may catch up the carry and see 163 of yesterday level again. Good luck friend.

London NYAM 15:39 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kap// Absolutely. In my effort to avoid being 'kinky,' I set my rentry too low. But the fat lady is still singing (though she seems to have cought a cold).
So far GBP/JPY has stalled at the .618 retrace level. As a wave 1 it could retrace althe way back to the start. Not nice...really not lol.

lkwd jj 15:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
$y should run out of steam here 75 pip range avg. short from 17.

melbourne DC Praying 2 Rain 15:36 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
or perhaps to be precise ... unwinding, unwind and unWOUND :)))

hk ab 15:33 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
the day is still long and e/j....

melbourne DC 15:33 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 15:16 GMT May 11, 2007
yes .. down then up ( or up then down) ... is correction ..
but i still like calling it carry unwind then unwind unwind.
next we may have to think of what to call : down then up then down ... since $Y , E$ and EY still at 120.20, 1.3520, 162.40.
but then equities might say its down then up and up and up ...
anyway most impt enjoy your weekend :))

Lahore FM 15:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 15:16 GMT May 11, 2007
you are right,no unwind so far but merely a dip and rise.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM // yes totally agree with you - it's my personal inner battle if I'm wrong or not..
>> however new lessons learned - I could have been managing this much better - both in terms of scaling and lightening... instead of trying some kinky way of accumulating down the way...(because after I read BC I ever wanted to try pyramiding..) funny...

London NYAM 15:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Hey Kapp// Technically I agree with you. At the same time its important not to get wedded to our positions. A loser is a loser unless proven otherwise. Remember knocking the fluff out of this fat sofa we call carry trading will take many blows. Lets see, as you say, how monday fairs after the market has time to digest all the news out there. gl m8

hk ab 15:23 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//it's black box every pair..... metals, dlr/jpy a/j, ej....

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
however I still like the sell side - monday will give more indication as stocks seem to be very important - the turn in EZ and later in US stocks gave a relief to the unwind troubles - but if China stocks which are close to the correction - it will all happen very fast..

HK Kevin 15:19 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
It seems forex "black boxes" are working hard.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hmm interesting - it either a spike for the last to get on the down train - or the way to new highs in eurjpy...

ldn jas 15:16 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:27 GMT May 11, 2007
ldn jas 08:25 GMT May 11, 2007
hardly a carry trade unwind - just a normal correction like I said.......

madrid mm 15:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
the link Click here

Plus ca change....

madrid mm 15:14 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
How about "Carry on Yenning" ? or " Carry on Kampoing " ?

i know I know becoming silly , no excues...This friday feeling

8-)

For those wo read french an interesting article about the french "Nouveau PS" as in "New Labour"

Have a nice week end. And don t forget -
" It is not becaue things are difficult that we do not dare them. It is because we do not dare them that they are difficult." Seneque

RIC fxq 15:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
mm, the latest one to be released soon is " Carry on Carry Trading "

rotfl

madrid mm 15:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Thx Ric

melbourne DC 15:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
the unwinding of carry n the unwinding of carry unwind r both scary :)) One either win double, lose double or have nothing to show for all the stress . At least it all happen fast :)))

RIC fxq 15:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:01 GMT

a whole series of them iirc - eg. "Carry On Camping", etc. all pretty Benny Hill-ish too!

GENEVA DS 15:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Fun starts soon.... audjpy over 100.00 , stop loss orders reported around 120.60 and 12100... , eurjpy the planet still short up to their eyeballs... good luck good weekend

madrid mm 15:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
we need a special definition of Corellation with the YEN

NY RP 15:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:59 GMT May 11, 2007
True.
If you take away the equity markets in teh US what is there to be optimistic about. Economy,rates,war, presidency,real estate, terrorism? It is hard to be a realist when nothing is real. LOL. I do know one thing, guess what? Gold going ot 740 to 760 very soon. Goodluck.

madrid mm 15:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
gatta ----- gOtta

Gen dk 15:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 15:03 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
You gatta love Fridays...Really .

London NYAM 15:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Wouldnt say its over just yet.

madrid mm 15:01 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Wan t there a UK movies serie called " Carry on " or something similar ? 8-)

UK Alex 15:00 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:59 GMT May 11, 2007
ab// It's not the only bubble, so why worry. :-)

GENEVA DS 14:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ANTI-CARRIERS are squeezed again....

hk ab 14:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
RP//US people seem haven't learnt from the nasdog bubble few years ago....now we have made a DJ bubble..

Makassar Alimin 14:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on usdjpy short, such is friday nite life =.=

London NYAM 14:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Comical. So much for finesse. The spring back on this is pretty impressive. Carry on carrying it seems.

Gen dk 14:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY RP 14:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Comical. US raise of rates pushed equity market much higher, now talk of lwer rates make equities higher. Slowing economy means equities higher and potential threat of recession pushes equities higher. War pushes equities higher and potential end of war will push equities higher. Softer dollar has pushed equites higher and a stronger dollar willpush equities higher. What would push equities lower? I love it.

Auckland peat 14:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
spike up on Eur/JPy took all but my beer money. nasty.
but had sold some USD/CAD at 1.1157 - I had already posted this was first target and could easily go back to 1.1092. Buy it back at 1.1105 if I'm still awake - 3am here.

CANBERRA JD 14:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
I smell reversal fever.............. Who farted?.. Perhaps it will be e/u

jkt-aye 14:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:51 GMT May 11, 2007
LKWD JJ 13:31 GMT May 11, 2007
Buy USD/CAD on dips and sell high for pips
----------------------------------------

very nice goose...got another +51 while zzzz. lol

Gen dk 14:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 14:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kampo vs Buffett . 1 - 0 for Kampo . Have a nice weekend .

Mtl JP 14:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:51, Sell USD/CAD on pops and buy low for pips.

unless zeusmarine breaks and closes above 1.1433ish.

London NYAM 14:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Little reaction so far. Could it be the behaviour of equities that will guide fx direction?

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
added again a little short at 161.95

LKWD JJ 14:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Decline, Producer Prices Unchanged

By Shobhana Chandra and Joe Richter

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. economic growth is slowing and inflation is under control, two reports showed today, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates later this year.

UK Alex 14:03 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 13:59 GMT May 11, 2007
The next rate move is already priced into the short-term interest rates markets. NIESR think tank were saying BOE should have made a 50bp move.

moscow mike 14:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
There is a nice break up of daily downtrend channel on USD index...

LKWD JJ 13:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
BOE May Need More Rate Moves to Rein In Consumers (Update1)

By Jennifer Ryan

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may find yesterday's interest-rate increase won't be enough to deter British consumers, whose spending has driven inflation to the fastest pace in a decade.
--------------------------------
is this one also priced in ?

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Flip //
tnx - I saw the redemptions on GVI
just wondered if this info is published somewhere (like COT for example)

LKWD JJ 13:55 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:47 GMT May 11, 2007
JJ 13:41 - s/l ?

19855

London NYAM 13:55 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Executed limit sell GBPJPY 237.55. As per previous post suspect movement could reach 60/80 but i didnt want to finess it.

USA Zeus 13:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Looks like gold and oil are in a turf battle.

moscow mike 13:52 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:51 GMT May 11, 2007

Nice poetry is great addition to the life beauty

USA Zeus 13:51 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 13:31 GMT May 11, 2007

Buy USD/CAD on dips and sell high for pips.

Dublin Flip 13:47 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn it’s been mentioned both GVI and here this week including on this forum…..

madrid mm 06:35 GMT May 10, 2007
……..
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY then came under pressure after fixing, as focus turns to huge US Treasury quarterly $20bln coupons + $65.87bln redemption next week on May 15 on expectation Japanese custodian names will sell. It then remained around 120, kept huge 120/ 120.10 option expiries, Tokyo cut. Talks of more good offers ahead of 120.30-50 b4 120.50 options.

--------
Be lucky

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
JJ 13:41 - s/l ?

LKWD JJ 13:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
sold cable 19816.

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
DJ in terms of number of Ounces of Gold Chart: gold/dow is about 197 ounces at current prices.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:36 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Alex // tnx!

UK Alex 13:34 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:29 GMT May 11, 2007
Redemptions started on Tuesday this week.

LKWD JJ 13:31 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus what does hightech star wars pricefigureouter say today for cad?

Lahore FM 13:31 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
canadian economy lost 5200 jobs against an expected addition.

USA Zeus 13:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
All set for heavy trading action in CME and ICE among the usual suspects.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:29 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:51 //
excuse me - is it possible for the private investors to get info on the redemptions or this is typically available to the interbank community?

Atlanta South 13:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed
I'm not short yet, but watching as 3500-10 might cap it for now. May just stay on the side since its FRI. GT

dc CB 13:26 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Reuters.com: Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday he still believed there was a one-third chance that the U.S. economy would slip into recession this year, reiterating a statement made in March

london phil 13:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
or they are waiting to see if new york stocks get sold again

NYC Ed 13:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South...meant DOWN TREND

NYC Ed 13:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South...yes I did, I was out at 97 and then went short @ 80, if the market opens and I don't get the uptrend I am looking for I pull the plug and kick myself

LKWD JJ 13:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
i think theyre waiting for djia to open to see what will be . another selloff or are the coveted stox "cheaper" today.

hk ab 13:19 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
e/j shorters zone?

london wt 13:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
looks like everyones waiting for everyone else to start buying or selling :)

Atlanta South 13:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed
Did u long E/$? I took a small long from 3467 & tp @ 3497. Gt

moscow mike 13:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD 1.35, GBPUSD 1.98, E/G = 1.35/1.98 = 0.681818181818....

Will it be magical?

dc CB 13:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
today's buffett: briefing.com

RTP Rio Tinto flying again on Buffett rumors - Daily Telegraph

Daily Telegraph reports Rio Tinto was flying again in late morning trading overseas, climbing 8% as hopes of a bid from BHP Billiton (BHP) persisted. The shares ticked up overnight in Australia, where the miner has a dual-listing. It was aided by talk that venture capitalists could become involved too, and that even billionaire Warren Buffett could take a holding in the miner.

Makassar Alimin 13:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ready to short euro 1.3518, stop 1.3534

madrid mm 12:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
who needs FX when we have Wine Funds ?
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Eight years ago, I realized that the case of the scarce 1982 Chateau Lafleur Bordeaux I was hoarding in my cellar was simply too valuable to drink. I'd bought the wine before it was even bottled, as futures, for $350, and I unloaded it for enough money to purchase a car. In March, it was trading for more than $40,000. Maybe I should have waited.

Click here

Como Perrie 12:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Weather forecast for tonight: dark.

dc CB 12:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:46 GMT May 11, 2007
4cast on retail sales: It appears that rising gasoline prices are restraining consumer demand.

As Homer Simpson would say: DOH!

Dublin Flip 12:51 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR with all those redepemptions and coupons next week I guess MOF can feed Kampo's appetitie directly and bypass the market-LOL

Como Perrie 12:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.

Makassar Alimin 12:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:41 GMT May 11, 2007

and the one driving next to you with same speed is an censored? LOL

RIC fxq 12:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
4cast on retail sales:

Weaker than expected even net of upward back month revisions. Ex autos and gasoline fall 0.2% after 0.9% rise in Mar. It appears that rising gasoline prices are restraining consumer demand.

PAR 12:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Figures worse than I expected but dollar behaving even better than expected . Same as yesterday, will Paulson turbo boost the dollar .

Como Perrie 12:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   

Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac?

USA Zeus 12:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Uh oh. Did Maldives get the call?

RIC fxq 12:39 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 12:38 GMT

19820 on my platty but spread was out at that level.

RIC fxq 12:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:32 GMT

PPI/cor PPI were very much inline not higher, correct tho' about retail sales being weak.

rag bar 12:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
cable high 1.9820

Plovdiv Gotin 12:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Cable hi pls?TIA.

RIC fxq 12:36 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:31 GMT

tks, just wondered.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PPI higher than exp / Adv Sales weaker than exp
mixed bag..

UK Alex 12:31 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:27 GMT May 11, 2007
Peter Schiff

Mtl JP 12:31 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
that makes Schiff my Bobbsey Twin

USA Zeus 12:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:25 GMT May 11, 2007
Well yes. We don't know but the new hat may have a "Made in China" sticker on it unlike that new 100m Feadship built in Kaag to keep it safe from Sue Ellen and Bobby.

Melbourne Qindex 12:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT May 11, 2007
CAD/JPY : The market is pulling towards 106.63 - 106.94.

Melbourne Qindex 01:41 GMT May 11, 2007
AUD/JPY : The market will test the supporting strength of 98.19 - 98.72.

RIC fxq 12:27 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:24 GMT

IRWIN Shiff?

UK Alex 12:27 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
US APRIL PPI month-on-month: previous +1.0%; Reuters consensus forecast +0.6% (1330BST)

US APRIL RETAIL SALES month-on-month: previous +0.7%; Reuters consensus forecast +0.3% (1500BST)

UK Alex 12:24 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:14 GMT May 11, 2007
Schiff is on record as saying that a recession is what is called for.

Melbourne Qindex 12:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle projected series the market is working on the the upper barrier at 0.8302* // 0.8326. The daily cycle charts suggest that speculative selling will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through the normal daily lower limit at 0.8240.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8240 - 0.8259* - 0.8269 - 0.8284 // 0.8298* - 0.8317 - 0.8327 - 0.8337* - [0.8356] - 0.8375* - 0.8385 - 0.8395 - 0.8414* // 0.8429 - 0.8443 - 0.8453* - 0.8472 ...

HK [email protected] 12:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:04 GMT May 11, 2007

With most of the goods sold in NY-stores coming from China expect China economy to perform great.

UK Alex 12:17 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
CHICAGO MERC RAISES OFFER FOR CBOT, UP 16% FROM ORIGINAL BID TERMS

Mtl JP 12:14 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Alex 11:37 / Bernanke is on record that "...The factors underlying the U.S. current account deficit are likely to unwind only gradually, however. Thus, we probably have little choice except to be patient as we work to create the conditions in which a greater share of global saving can be redirected away from the United States and toward the rest of the world--particularly the developing nations..." (April 14, 2005)

I have dis-agreed with Ben about "little choice" having pointed out on numerous occasions that a US R ecession (causing the US consumer to put back his wallet) is a viable tactic. Watching the FED printing speed of fiats AND the tilt of battle of control of market's money supply through credit co-generation of "money" are probably telling indicators.

UK Alex 12:06 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:04 GMT May 11, 2007
Yeah, the headline figure will be boosted by high gasoline prices.

Spotforex NY 12:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC booming with foreign tourist...hotel prices start at $400 a room....98% occupancy.....unheard of here

Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above the weekly cycle normal upper limit at 1.1118. The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.1076 - 1.1118* // 1.1150 - 1.1181 - 1.1202* - 1.1245. The upper barrier of the daily cycle is located at 1.1153 // 1.1167. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 1.0825 // 1.0910* - 1.1023 - 1.1079 - 1.1136* - [1.1249].


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0990 - 1.1008* - 1.1018 - 1.1031 // 1.1045* - 1.1063 - 1.1072 - 1.1081* - [1.1099] - 1.1117* - 1.1126 - 1.1135 - 1.1153 // 1.1167 - 1.1180 - 1.1189* - 1.1207 ...

PAR 12:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
With weak dollar and all those foreigners shopping in NY, retail sales should be better than expected .

moscow mike 12:03 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 11:56 GMT May 11, 2007

Dear Jay, it is not here

GVI john 12:01 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/11/2007 9:34	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3479	119.56	1.2183	1.9785	1.1128	0.6811	161.18
High	1.3488	120.01	1.2213	1.9814	1.1134	0.682	161.75
Low	1.3464	119.58	1.2178	1.9762	1.1093	0.6803	161.21
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3527	119.91	1.2133	1.9806	1.1039	0.6795	161.94
10 day	1.3565	119.95	1.2106	1.9843	1.1045	0.6803	162.35
20 day	1.3581	119.50	1.2070	1.9893	1.1129	0.6794	161.66
50 day	1.3417	118.52	1.2108	1.9658	1.1405	0.6790	158.26
100 day	1.3235	119.31	1.2223	1.9592	1.1546	0.6721	157.26
200 day	1.3035	118.30	1.2275	1.9282	1.1399	0.6724	153.65

Gen dk 12:01 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:00 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
found this interesting - from IdeaGlobal:
7:18  Greenspan sounds bearish on economy
Former Fed Chairman Greenspan said overnight in Singapore that there is no doubt that a slowdown is occurring in the US. Housing a significant drag on economy. US has problems in capital investment and potential problems with consumptions. On the other hand, he says stronger Asian growth to offset weaker exports and the odds against a US recession are still 2 to 1. And global growth to offset any US slowdown. IDEA: These comments have helped boost Treasuries and Bunds, as has equity market weakness yesterday.

NYC Ed 11:57 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia PandA... you're right BUT... this is the Forex and it's a new day... ok I hold you responsible if it goes south GL GT

GVI Jay 11:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Mike, did you get my email?

moscow mike 11:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:47 GMT May 11, 2007
Monaco Oil man 06:43 GMT May 11, 2007
Thanks for the chart! Seems your home brewed MACD and FxMozarts already in up signal and DI is ready to cross?
=============

Is your $CAD 1.000 is gone for coming years?

Sofia PandA 11:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 11:35 GMT May 11, 2007
Why not if E/$ broken 1.3516 and stay above.

london Reuters Waynet 11:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
anyone have some useful documentation on using COT to trade. Does anyone use this information currently with their trading. i have been playing with the data and the idea and i can see alot of potential with it.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Global-View 11:37 //
I'm sorry - please excuse me!

UK Alex 11:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:37 GMT May 11, 2007
China is Japan's biggest trading partner, so you can think of USD/JPY as a product of USD/CNY & CNY/JPY. Can't be any clearer than that.

Halifax CB 11:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:16 GMT May 11, 2007
Who will they call on next to save the USD and Buffett's investment- Maldives?

Judging from mm's post, it looks like China. All those IOU's the US wrote to by cheap shirts & plastic toys are coming home to roost....

UK Alex 11:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:16 GMT May 11, 2007
Paulson says China should increase domestic consumption, so I guess that means there will be even less demand for commodities.

Global-View 11:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia. The same report is in our research section LINK

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex //
may I ask for a brief help on how the appreciation of the RMB will affect the USDJPY?
is it that it have the opprtunity to appreciate slowly with less adverse effect on Japan exporters - since it will be still competitive compared to the Chinese ccy?

NYC Ed 11:35 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
anyone think if we can push the 3591 we can get 3600 this morning on eur/usd???

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:33 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
a very good piece by Mr. Crooks:
http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/8f2e9c2375a1496/bsccc051107.pdf

madrid mm 11:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
China Eases Investment Caps, Lets Banks Buy Overseas (Update2)

By Luo Jun and Zhao Yidi

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- China will allow the country's commercial banks to buy stocks abroad, in a move that may release some of the nation's 35 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) of savings on overseas equity markets for the first time.

Chinese commercial banks can invest up to 50 percent of the funds pooled under the so-called qualified domestic institutional investors program, or QDII, in stocks abroad, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement on its Web site. Investors need to have at least 300,000 yuan to purchase such financial products, the regulator said.

The Netherlands Purk 11:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:16 GMT May 11, 2007

In any case they have called the hat maker as well for a bigger hat for you JR... This one does not fit your wallet anymore..

London NYAM 11:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Fishing for bargains(My apologies if my posts on this pair are tedious): GBPJPY if the 237.20 area can be breached a consolidation up to 237.60/80 will be really tough to broach given th emomentum of the sell-off. But it will be a golden op to get in should it appear. The implication i suspect is that Cable will furnish the power for the move.

The Netherlands Purk 11:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Guess that the yen pairs will go for a surprise today. Some people dont like to take profit i guess...

Loonie needed this to take a next zone. But beware of the sudden bounces of 30 pips.

e/j is going for the high and if it stays there, we know what will happen next.... Only the 161- can spoil that...

USA Zeus 11:16 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Who will they call on next to save the USD and Buffett's investment- Maldives?

USA Zeus 11:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:09 GMT May 11, 2007
ab- Good point. Neither should Randy's 1.13.
I see no surprise there, 1.14 or 1.15 either. Yesterday was the first time to start slicing any off from the heavy allocation.

Just needed to take a little cream off the top.
Cheers!

UK Alex 11:12 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Gold is going to $800 and where gold goes, the rest will follow.

Syd 11:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Inspector (Buffett)Cluso is buying Dollars :-))

London NYAM 11:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
fwiw tHINK cad is due a significant reversal. The last move up was 5 waves and impulsive. Too early to say if it will mount a serious offensive to that 113 point but 11250 looks likely in comming sessions.

hk ab 11:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, 1.1190 is not that distant, imvho.

USA Zeus 11:06 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Ahh Sold a little USD/CAD for +123 @ 1.1165

hk ab 11:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
cad story can tell that any bad story from aussie side will do the same thing.

hk ab 11:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
cad data should be bad and lead to a selloff.

The Netherlands Purk 11:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Loonie is off the edge and decided to go look voor good gains...

NYC Ed 10:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Is it my WISHFUL thinking or can eur/usd get to 3500 today?

Mtl JP 10:47 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Canada event risk
11:00GMT - Canadian Employment Report, mrkt: 19K last: 54.9k

USA Zeus 10:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Re Buffett and commodity currency BS-

Speaking at last year's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s (BRKA) annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Warren Buffett warned that commodity markets have become overheated. Earlier this week, another famed value-oriented fund manager -- Bill Miller -- devoted his quarterly letter to shareholders to the same warning.

Here's the report on Mr Buffett's comments from the Wall Street Journal (paid sub. req'd):

Speculation has also begun to drive commodity markets, Mr. Buffett warned. The price of metals, such as copper, and other commodities like oil, initially climbed on fundamentals, but the gains have now attracted more investors betting on further price gains, he explained.

"What the wise man does at the beginning the fool does at the end," he quipped. "Once a price history develops enough for other people to see it and get envious, that takes over markets. We're seeing that some areas of the commodity markets."

The Berkshire chairman also warned that it could end badly, likening commodity markets to Cinderella at the ball. "At the start of the party, the punch is flowing and everything's going well, but you know at midnight it's all going to turn into pumpkins and mice," he said. "People think they'll be able to get out just before midnight, but everyone else thinks that too."

"The problem is that, in commodities there are no clocks on the wall," he added. Berkshire mostly avoids commodity speculation because Mr. Buffett said he's "not good at the game of figuring out how far the speculative gains will go."

Makassar Alimin 10:40 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
here we go, "carry trade unwinding" theme is back...still holding that usdjpy short, stop all 120.08

London NYAM 10:39 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The paranoid in me can't help but wonder if the lingering hawkish tone in the Fed's statement is partly to offset the danger of a dollar seel-off in the face of growing negative econ data.

GVI john 10:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:34 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
last carry unwind saw the 200 daily MA..
measured at present the EURJPY 200ma is at 155.12
probably the 55 Daily MA at 159.33 is first test (break or make)
/all MAs are 00:00 GMT settled/

London NYAM 10:29 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
US Apr PPI expected at0.6% MoM and 3.1% YoY vs 1.0% and 3.2%.
Core number ex food and energy at 0.2% Mom and 1.8% YoY after 0.0 and 1.7%
Apr Advanced retail sales expected at 0.4% down from 0.7% Less autos seen at 0.5% March business inventories expected at 0.3% unchanged 4:00 pm CET.
Paulson speaks at 5:30 pm CET

Corrective churning until then or/unless the Stock market decides its ready to go ahead and dump anyway.

Halifax CB 10:22 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Re. Buffett - I figure he's learned to treat a ccy just like he would stock; so either he's looking for a reasonably well managed country that shows a consistent, outperforming ROI, or something with potential worth buying outright where he can install his own management. Seems Canada fits the bill, at least on the second :).

madrid mm 10:19 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Don't Forget Currencies When Investing Abroad: Michael R. Sesit

By Michael R. Sesit

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Investing outside your home market while ignoring exchange rates may be akin to crossing the street with a blindfold.

For several years, Americans, traditionally a parochial lot, have been making the journey, earning a bundle. While many international equity markets have bested Wall Street by hefty margins, exchange-rate movements -- read weakening dollar --have boosted those returns even more. Click here

melbourne DC 10:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Euro becomes currency of choice for cocaine traffickers
IHT By VICTORIA BURNETT

melbourne DC 10:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ever wonder who r the eastern europeans?

GENEVA DS 10:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
good tought Alex.... so if Warren is buying aud and cad.... and the big japanese investors are buying audjpy and cadjpy... this is may be becoming very interesting as a good deal for next 6 month.... 120 audjpy 120 cadjpy... why not?

madrid mm 10:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 10:11 GMT May 11, 2007


So true !

madrid mm 10:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:10 GMT May 11, 2007

Thoughts are always welcome in this forum 8-)

Mumbai Deepak 10:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
"Carry-Trade".....was last heard quoting Mark Twain. "Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."....LOL!!!

madrid mm 10:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
...until of course that changes 8-)

UK Alex 10:10 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Maybe he's buying a commodity currency - just a thought.

madrid mm 10:10 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:23 GMT May 11, 2007
Highlights
../..
USD/JPY rose on fixing, set at 119.97, but capped ahead of 120.00-10, with focus still on the key 119.50-60 Kampo/ lifers and bids from Japanese investors/ importers and real money Cross/JPY support on dips. Topside interest still to sell on rallies, with offers 120.00-20.

GENEVA DS 10:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Dublin... very good point... real estate has been financed by swissy... but if they have all taken 100 year mortgages, then we can wait a moment for reversal.... btw ... snb speakers this week mentionned being very happy with quiet market conditions at the moment and with level of swissy...

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:07 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Perhaps that much easier to pickpocket Kampo?

Dublin Flip 10:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
I doubt the consensus is long yen and if it appeared they were it is only in the shallow end of the pool (short term speculaters). no offence to day traders.
The geared trade has become a widespread strategy for all from the most sophisticated investors who have used it to buy esoteric high returning assets (like equities and commodities) to those who think a 4% differential is worth beefing up their FX risk. (Even eastern european property investors have been financiaing themselves with foreign borrowings like swissy).

PAR 09:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
With all due respect to Buffett but Kampo has bigger pockets .

GENEVA DS 09:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Madrid.... do agree with you... USDJPY could be much faster than we all think at 125.00 with the help of 2 major players...

madrid mm 09:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM was quicker than me....Now where did i put this "10 easy steps to learn fast keyboard skill" ? lol

madrid mm 09:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
KAMPO & WB , what make you think that they are in the opposite corner ? They could have a direct line to each other office and have the same view !!! ! 8-)

Expect the unexpected

London NYAM 09:55 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
But we don't actually know what Warren is up to...
Consensus does not equal wrong until everyone is in play.

GENEVA DS 09:52 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
I think besides PAR.... (and eventually KAMPO and assciates...) NOBODY is bullish in USDJPY and .../JPY ,,, may be most consensus trade in a while.... everybody short... hope that comes out as expected.... expect tough the unexpected.... ie.... KAMPO right for once... Warren Buffet has been wrong before in Currencies.... last year he lost 2.7 Bio USD on EURO deal.... just for your info.... GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 09:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Watch out for 50 pip quick bounces in e/j as they are back. Loonie on the edge here...

Dublin Flip 09:48 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
I've been there before. In a couple of months time the boss says "But Japan's GDP is 3% and US is 1.5% and we were all buying $JPY and overweight US and underweight Jap equities. What were we thinking??" -LOL

Gen dk 09:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:38 GMT May 11, 2007 || LOL... Warren wins every time! Some lessons are hard to teach.

London NYAM 09:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore// How do you rate the chance that there will be a pause before the storm? The ppi and retail sails figures may prevent any major moves until post numbers. IMO

hk ab 09:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR shows up = BUY dlrjpy signal!

London NYAM 09:40 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Now USDJPY will have to mount the relative low of 119.78 in order to get to a decent retracement. The price action is suggesting that this will be a grueling slog however.

PAR 09:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kampo against Buffett at 119.50 . Lol.

Lahore FM 09:36 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
usdchf won't be rising even if dollar rises against gbp and eur.the carry unwind mentioned a while back is just officially kicking off.

Mumbai Deepak 09:13 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Oilman...I am asking form a longer term trader point of view, as I dont trade Intraday.

Mumbai Deepak 09:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man....06:43 GMT May 11, 2007

That indicator is a "Trend Following" indicator, which will work well in any trend. How do you overcome whipsaw's with in a ranging market. Do you just use the Weekly charts only then?

TIA.

Syd 09:10 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn not a problem :-)) good report ....

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd -- pls excuse me - ..

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Hedge funds seem to be getting very nervous over carry trades in the last 24 hours, says a trader. There's talk of several well known funds checking EUR/JPY this morning and some are saying Thursday liquidation of sterling longs was a result of one side of carry trades being cut. UK bank trader also mentions an article in Thursday's Financial Times that suggests Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame has made a new bet in the currency markets in one currency, with odds favoring that it's long of JPY.


btw - I saw a few reports of big stops in USDJPY below 119.50 - that said it migh reach 118.90

Syd 09:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Funds Getting Nervous On Carry - Trader

Hedge funds seem to be getting very nervous over carry trades in the last 24 hours, says a trader. There's talk of several well known funds checking EUR/JPY this morning and some are saying Thursday liquidation of sterling longs was a result of one side of carry trades being cut. UK bank trader also mentions an article in Thursday's Financial Times that suggests Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame has made a new bet in the currency markets in one currency, with odds favoring that it's long of JPY. EUR/JPY currently trades at 161.57, GBP/JPY 237.25.

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:00 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:42 GMT May 8, 2007
A black cat crossing your path signifies that the animal is going somewhere.
---
Could hold more meaning today than previously implied!?

Gen dk 08:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 08:59 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY looks to be the driver for another exploration into negative territory for GBPJPY. This should be the last leg while Cable benefits slightl;y from the rotation around the cross. Yen should reach around 119.50 before a retracement but it may spillover to 119.30 area. The Cross looks like it will try for contra players stops and take it into the 236.60 range. From there we should get some bounce where i hope to sell the rally.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man - nice CAD chart on the blog.. tnx!
I study the indicators used as I experiment myself with DM and faster responding MACD like the Mozart one..

Monaco Oil man 08:51 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
bought some $chf here 1.2187 stops 68.
Have others at 1.2199..stop all if 68 gives.

Let's see what this friday will bring.

PAR 08:49 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Can not believe Buffett buying yen , rather think he is buying Chinese yuan since he already owns big part in Petrochina .

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
not sure but looking on the BMBG site FTSE 100 its all in red..

Melbourne Qindex 08:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2139 - 1.2291. The daily and 3-day cycle reference indicate that the market momentum is strong since the market was able to trade above their normal upper limits at 1.2190 and 1.2205. My daily cycle charts indicate that speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above [1.2228].


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2086 - 1.2109* - 1.2121 - 1.2139 // 1.2157* - 1.2180 - 1.2192 - 1.2204 - [1.2228] - 1.2251* - 1.2263 - 1.2275 - 1.2299* // 1.2317 - 1.2334 - 1.2346* - 1.2370 ...

Lahore FM 08:27 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 08:25 GMT May 11, 2007
we will see more about it into us session with another stocks selloff.

Melbourne Qindex 08:26 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.9615 - 1.9841. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below [1.9728] which is the midpoint reference of the weekly cycle projected series. The daily cycle reference indicates that the market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily cycle normal lower limit at 1.9864. The lower barrier of the daily cycle is located at 1.9610 // 1.9634*. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9827* // 1.9852.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9537 - 1.9570* - 1.9586 - 1.9610 // 1.9634* - 1.9666 - 1.9682 - 1.9699* - [1.9731] - 1.9763* - 1.9779 - 1.9795 - 1.9827* // 1.9852 - 1.9876 - 1.9892* - 1.9924 ...

ldn jas 08:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:21 GMT May 11, 2007
I would hardly call this move a carry trade unwind - just a small correction imho.....

Lahore FM 08:21 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
carry unwind threat is on through rest of the day and next week.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
added little more shorts at 161.69

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:17 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:30 //
I saw you mentioned DM indicator - I experiment with it at present and so far it provides good help..

Kaunas DP 08:10 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
cable flirting with 55 days EMA - might provide sme support for several days - IMHO

Melbourne Qindex 08:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.3406 - 1.3523. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the lower limit of daily cycle reference at 1.3576. As indicates in the current daily cycle projected series the downside targeting points are 1.3406 and 1.3415. The upside targeting points are 1.3510 and 1.3523.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3368 - 1.3384* - 1.3392 - 1.3404 // 1.3415* - 1.3431 - 1.3439 - 1.3447* - [1.3463] - 1.3478* - 1.3486 - 1.3494 - 1.3510* // 1.3522 - 1.3533 - 1.3541* - 1.3557 ...

melbourne DC 07:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai BC 0747gmt
7 years .. i would say he made his own luck. If not wrong , he waited for more than a dacade for his gillete to pay off . All the best.

USA Zeus 07:34 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 07:29 GMT May 11, 2007

mik- Not much time in the schedule for that.
GT! :-)

Sofia mik 07:29 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus , when you sleep friend?

Monaco Oil man 07:29 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Took some $chf again , same place as yesty ; though yesty it was the break, let's see if there's some follow through..Tight leash on the stops.

USA Zeus 07:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The USD camp will grow and grow...

slv sam 07:17 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
anyone feels longing gbp today?GT

Melbourne Qindex 07:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market has penetrated the lower barrier of the weekly cycle at 1.5006 // 1.5083*. The next targeting level of the weekly cycle is 1.4879. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.4853 // 1.4872. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the normal lower limit of daily (1.5071) and 3-day cycle reference (1.4984).


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4797 - 1.4822* - 1.4835 - 1.4853 // 1.4872* - 1.4897 - 1.4909 - 1.4922* - [1.4946] - 1.4971* - 1.4984 - 1.14996 - 1.5021* // 1.5040 - 1.5058 - 1.5071* - 1.5096 ...

Melbourne Qindex 06:58 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : : As shown in the weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 162.22. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the mid-point reference of the weekly cycle projected series at [161.27. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is expected at 160.46 // 160.66. Selling on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


Daily Cycle : ... 159.89 - 160.15* - 160.27 - 160.46 // 160.66* - 160.91 - 161.04 - 161.16* - [161.42] - 161.67* - 161.80 - 161.92 - 162.18* // 162.37 - 162.56 - 162.69* - 162.94 ...

Monaco Oil man 06:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:47 GMT May 11, 2007

Sharp eye , you spotted the 2nd brewed indicator , yes, it's already up , (comparatively to the "normal macd") ..

GBP$ , is really on dangerous ground , it's short in all time frames but weekly , a bad close here , and into next week it might keep running loose.

AUD needs to regain 8320 too..Maybe the markets will cool down and start ranging for a few months(thus being peaky atm), not something to forget , they have tendency for doing that..

London NYAM 06:51 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Booked short GBP/JPY 237.00 even for 220pips. May be more in store but ill watch.

moscow mike 06:47 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:43 GMT May 11, 2007
Thanks for the chart! Seems your home brewed MACD and FxMozarts already in up signal and DI is ready to cross?

Monaco Oil man 06:46 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Admittedly, it's quite close to starting one , if it keeps pushing , for me the trigger will be 1.1155..

Monaco Oil man 06:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:30 GMT May 11, 2007

Nothing yet for $/CAD in the Oilman's home brewed DI..

moscow mike 06:36 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:28 GMT May 11, 2007 - Yes, Oil Man.

From different time frames it may always look different.

Best of trades!

USA Zeus 06:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Who has been selling GBP/USD- Did Belarus get the call?

moscow mike 06:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Proprietary MA5,34 crossover system on 6hour chart gave a buy signal for the first time yesterday (was shorting since 1750)...

Monaco Oil man 06:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
mike ,
ATM there is quite a fight :

Daily signals are short (FOR the us$ , apart for the $/CAD who is still short) :
e.g
GBP$ 2.0040 short daily , meanwhile weekly still long 1.9500..
Same goes for EUR$...In this sense only my prevailing winning positions are kept, stops are tightened (no more gbp$ at all , either short or long atm)..

-US/CAD stops for the shorts now at 1.1155 for the total of the positions , started awhile ago with an avr of 1.1480 (3 adds , last one at 1.1305).

AUDUSD , Dailies shorted .8358 , 4 hours a few hours ago .8312 have raised the stops , as i have none in hands , i might buy a break to the upside above 8320..no buys however done while it's under 8320 , as target for the current daily short is much lower..

The short signal on the weekly might appear depending on the close of today..Quite an important day , as next week it might trigger new positions taken (for me , or for other trenders, thus a price movement..), if the dollar keeps going..
Filtering , filtering...


madrid mm 06:23 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan says odds against US recession are 2 to 1 (one third). Global growth will help offset any slowdown in US economy. Trade imbalances will remain if CNY remains artificially weak. Does not see the repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

PBoC sets CNY mid point at new high of 7.6835, from yesterday closing of 7.6936, despite the strong USD.

China Trade suroplus for Jan-April hit $63.31bln - XinhuaMoF Koji Omi reiterates FX should be decided under market mechanism, up to BoJ on interest rates.

FT : Warren Buffett sent the FX markets scrambling this week after revealing that he had made a "surprising" new bet on the currency markets. Mr Buffett added to the intrigue by indicating he was only actively buying one currency. "We will tell you about it next year."

FT frontpage today on yesterday's BoJ Fukui comments: BoJ Governor flags rate rise: warning that keeping rates low could fuel the so-called yen carry trade and destabilise the country's economy.

Australian PM John Howard sees no reason for interest rate hike, as inflation and not employment is main driver of rates.

UK Telegraph: Labour set the stage for a new era under Gordon Brown yesterday by unceremoniously dumping Tony Blair's "New Labour" brand within minutes of the PM resignation.

Korean paper Dong-a Ilbo says the U.S. govt is prepared to announce an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, formally ending hostilities with N Korea, by Sept, before the APEC summit.The 2 Koreas have technically been at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended with a truce, with no formal peace accord. The U.S. would establish ties with Pyongyang as early as this month - BBG

JPY strength remains the focus on Asia today, though it did not manage to hold on to gains as real money, funds bought USD/JPY, Cross/JPY, JPY carry trades on lows after the Asian stock markets did not fall as much as feared, following Dow losses, on fears of more unwinding, risk aversion, with Shanghai down modestly -1.85%.

USD/JPY rose on fixing, set at 119.97, but capped ahead of 120.00-10, with focus still on the key 119.50-60 Kampo/ lifers and bids from Japanese investors/ importers and real money Cross/JPY support on dips. Topside interest still to sell on rallies, with offers 120.00-20.

Again focus on rising CNY after the surprise new fixing high, set at 7.6835 from yesterday 7.6936 despite the firmer USD.. Little impact from Greenspan 2-1 odds against recession (or one-third), with focus on tonight's PPI/ Retail Sales.

EUR/JPY off its 2- wk lows of 161.28, with offers now capping topside at 161.80-00, stoploss orders on break of 161.20/ 161.00. EUR/USD weighed by EUR/JPY sales.

Euro currently off its post ECB 1-m lows of 1.3462, with speculation Russia/ East Europeans/ Sovereign may need to buy more EUR for reserve management after RUB intervention in recent sessions. Good Sovereign bids at 1.3450, offers at 1.35 handle, with stops blw 1.3440.

GBP off 1-wk lows of 1.9771, focus on good 2-way interest in GBP/JPY and any signs of Russian, East Eruropeans buying, Cable eye "new" Labour under Brown.

NZD off its 1-m lows of 0.7258 on short-covering in NZD/JPY, which hit 3-week lows of 86.90, with Japanese mega-city banks buying, but huge stops below 86.80/50.

Nikkei -1.1% or 196pts at 17,540 on Dow losses, while JGBs firmer on firmer Treasuries, 10-yr yield -0.020% at 1.645%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.71/120.02, EUR/USD 1.3464/1.3485, GBP/USD 1.9771/1.9815, USD/CHF 1.2196/1.2213, AUD/USD 0.8241/0.8306, NZD/USD 0.7253/0.7308.

moscow mike 06:22 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:20 GMT May 11, 2007
Yes, Zeus, GCE Datamining NN system says the same

USA Zeus 06:20 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:15 GMT May 11, 2007
If my quadratic is correct, try 13-period DX's.

The Netherlands Purk 06:17 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Yep you have said it right Oily Boily, CAD weakness, nice of your to confirm the way up to 11422....

moscow mike 06:15 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:14 GMT May 11, 2007 - Is it a signal given by your proprietary Oilman DX+/DX- indicator?

Monaco Oil man 06:14 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
The US/CAD has had it's upside momentum , but it's loosing it's luster already..Yen will be a factor for further weakness in CAD..

1.1120-55 should resist , for medium straight 1.0 target.

gl gt

USA Zeus 06:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Eventually, all things merge into one, and a river runs through it.

madrid mm 06:06 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
This is an end to an "epoque" !! Barcelona loses in the King's cup semi final against Getafe, Tony is leaving 10 Downing street , Jacques the Elysee Palace and there is no @#$%^&* correlation whatsoever between euro/usd and usd/yen. 8-)

Spotforex NY 06:05 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
signal implies a retracement from today's opening levels,....that is a weaker CAD (stronger USD).....overall....it would suggest a consolidatiion phase after the 10 week+ strong Cad bull run vs USD....the question is how far sucha a retracement....23%? 38? 50%....

The Netherlands Purk 06:04 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
If we have patternchange in Lonnert than we might see 11083 for bottomers. After that nice flight for 11127. Watch out for 11422.

Swissy is the thing to catch. As long as it trades above 12150-70 (MIB like to take 20's) longers are in.
e/u will do some tikcy to the low and decides from there where to go. Pattern says that we first have to go to 13520ishes....

Bugger: well look at previous post, still not to late for 16218 again, but yen less weakness (!!) is all over the place. Dont stare at the numbers all day, just set s/l in and enjoy Bugs Bunny or Free Willy...

hk ab 05:53 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 05:22 GMT May 11, 2007

Do you mean a retracement of 100-250 pips and then resumption of downtrend? or a revesal in weekly chart?

madrid mm 05:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
...and after squandering a two-goal lead, the Ottawa Senators bounced back with three goals in the third period to beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals....

madrid mm 05:44 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Central Bank Rates
USD 5.25% EUR 3.75% JPY 0.50% GBP 5.50%
CHF 2.25% CAD 4.25% AUD 6.25% NZD 7.75%

madrid mm 05:43 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Click here4Currencies

madrid mm 05:42 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
China's Yuan Heads for Weekly Gain as Trade Surplus Doubles in April The yuan had the biggest weekly gain in almost three months on speculation China will use currency gains to prevent its trade surplus from widening and driving up record foreign-exchange reserves.

madrid mm 05:37 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi,

a big jump in the PPI due to gas is expected, but a big change in retail sales isn't. If retail data prove as disappointing as yesterday's chain-store reports, the outlook for economic growth could slow.

Spotforex NY 05:22 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

first time this decade I received such a signal in this pair....usualy means retracement/consolidation. Signal confirmed on Tokyo open today......

from GVI
Spotforex NY 10:46 GMT May 8, 2007
I have a 'rare' oversold' condition flashing in USD/CAD.....I will post when condition is confirmed. But at levels that are 'bubbling' of a retracement rally of 100-200 pips.

USA BAY 04:50 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q,

Could you kindly post your analysis on usd/cad pls. tia

Melbourne Qindex 04:26 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 162.22. The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 160.33 - 162.22.

Perth Randall El 04:03 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
=======
1.13 is coming

Makassar Alimin 04:02 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 01:30 GMT May 11, 2007

you might be right, will try some short myself if 1.3520 seen with stop some pips above it especially if downtrend line extending from 1.36 top breached

Syd 03:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”

Melbourne Qindex 02:31 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY (Weekly Cycle)  : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 236.59. The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle projected series are 231.13 // 232.62* - 234.60 - 235.60 - 236.59* - [238.58]. The upper barrier of the daily cycle is positioning at 238.16 // 238.51. The mid-point reference of the daily cycle projected series is located at [236.75] and the lower barrier is expected at 234.98 // 235.33. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


Daily Cycle : ... 233.92 - 234.39* - 234.63 - 234.98 // 235.33* - 235.80 - 236.04 - 236.28* - [236.75] - 237.22* - 237.45 - 237.69 - 238.16* // 238.51 - 238.86 - 239.10* - 239.57 ...

Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Gold : the market is going to test the supporting strength of 659.7. A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 671.4.

Syd 01:55 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
End of phase of cyclical USD losses vs G10 currencies could be approaching, says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley in report; "While I still think the dollar will likely weaken a bit further, the risk-reward suggests caution on EUR/USD and GBP/USD longs." Says if U.S. economy is gaining traction, risky assets should extend solid performance, USD shorts vs selected emerging market currencies "now look more appealing to me than USD shorts against core G10 currencies."

hk ab 01:45 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, May I have your view on gold in future F? TIA

Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : The market is pulling towards 106.63 - 106.94.

Melbourne Qindex 01:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The market will test the supporting strength of 98.19 - 98.72.

FW CS 01:30 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
All Mighty USA Zeus 22:01 GMT May 10, 2007
I think the USD train does not have many passengers yet. That $/CAD looks like it has good potential on the upside now. I myself am positioning myself for USD strength throu the Euro. Short at 1.3601 and 1.3545. I think we could see 1.33 then 1.29 in the near future.

USA BAY 01:28 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,

Your view on aud/jpy and cad/jpy pls. tia

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 236.59.

Halifax CB 01:18 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 23:05 GMT May 10, 2007
I tend to agree (especially when it comes to lunch hour spikes); but this was hardly an impulse move (it started last Feb. and really got rolling mid-March). As for size, 300 pips isn't a lot on $Cad - except perhaps over the last year (250 - 300 seems to be about 1 std when taken on a 1 year period on a timeframe -e.g. 12 pts on the monthlies, 52 pts on the weeklies around 260 pts on the dailies given Metatrader's day count...).
FIW, I wouldn't count the trend over - just the easy part - not until it retraces to the first or middle fib level and clearly fails to make the 62% extension downlegs have usually made on $Cad. Or at least met the 4 week rule (by closing above 1.1250 next week)

Syd 01:11 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY stop-loss sell orders rumored around 86.50, which if hit could send cross to 85.00, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank; crosses falling broadly on adjustment of EUR/JPY longs

UK Alex 00:56 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Kyodo)--Japan's foreign exchange reserves swelled $6.67 billion from the previous month to $915.62 billion in April, a record high for the third straight month, the Finance Ministry said Friday.

Japan had $768.63 billion in foreign securities as of April 30, up from $762.31 billion a month before.

Foreign currency deposits came to $125.65 billion, down from $125.68 billion a month earlier.

Of the deposits, $6.70 billion were held in foreign central banks and the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, $25.91 billion in Japanese banks and $93.03 billion in foreign financial institutions.

Japan had $16.66 billion in gold as of the end of April, up from $16.28 billion worth the previous month.

It had $1.49 billion in International Monetary Fund reserve positions, compared with $1.51 billion in March, and $2.85 billion in IMF special drawing rights, up from $2.84 billion. Other reserve assets were given as $349 million.

Japan's foreign exchange reserves consist of securities and deposits denominated in foreign currencies, IMF reserve positions, IMF special drawing rights and gold.

Melbourne Qindex 00:47 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 119.49*. The daily cycle projected series indicates that the market has potential to tackle the lower barrier at 118.73 // 118.93. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.40*.


Daily Cycle : ... 118.14 - 118.40* - 118.54 - 118.73 // 118.93* - 119.20 - 119.33 - 119.46* - [119.72] - 119.99* - 120.12 - 120.25 - 120.52* // 120.71 - 120.91 - 121.04* - 121.31 ...

Fairfield JC 00:41 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 00:38 GMT May 11, 2007

Yeah where is that man? Oilman.....hello!!!!

Fairfield JC 00:39 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:32 GMT May 11, 2007

just curious about this 5 DMA. Is it just a 5 moving average? Also where is it right now and on what time frame? TIA.......

Wassup Zeus!!!! You still long? Iam short AUS/USD. GT No luck!!! Hehe

UK Alex 00:38 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Not heard much from the oilman recently. Hope he is alright.

hk ab 00:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, I use that 5 dma with great care,if a trend is broken, be it. and I am happy to long above it....

UK Alex 00:32 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs: China at risk of "market euphoria"

Syd 00:14 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex yes just noticed.......Goldman Sees Gains In China’s Stock Markets As Overextended

In line with comments made by central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the US based investment bank, has stated that a ‘correction’ may be due in Chinese stock markets. With the CSI 300 Index advancing by a whopping 82 percent over the past year, analysts are looking at stock valuations that have completely exceeded earnings potential. Incidentally, the stock market mania has been reflected in the massive amount of new securities account openings over the Golden Week holiday. According to records by the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp, Chinese investors opened a record 385,121 new accounts last week. Volume has also exceeded past figures, mounting to $48.96 billion. Subsequently, the possibility leaves markets open for another Feburary 27th adjustment that would bring stocks back to correct valuations. For now, however, it seems the only direction for Chinese equities is up.

UK Alex 00:09 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:36 GMT May 10, 2007
Goldman Sachs have put out a warning saying Shanghai is looking very overvalued.

Syd 00:08 GMT May 11, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Shares Down 2.5% Early

 




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