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Forex Forum Archive for 05/13/2007

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Syd 23:54 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Buy Yen If China Share Market Corrects - UBS
[Dow Jones] China authorities "understandably nervous" about a bubble in stocks, says UBS, and if market does falter, FX investors should do 3 things: Buy JPY as any regional money illegally entering stock market flows out of China again, buy JPY as risk aversion rises globally, causing carry trades to be unwound, and buy USD as inflows slow into China, meaning PBOC has fewer extra FX reserves in future to diversify out of. In short, "expect euro/yen and the other yen crosses to come off sharply just as they did in February's bout of global risk aversion."

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:01 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
2253 GMT [Dow Jones] Japan's domestic corporate goods price index expected +1.8% on-year in April vs 2.0% rise in March, shows survey of economists by Dow Jones and Nikkei; BOJ has said CGPI likely to continue uptrend although prices of crude oil and other commodities, FX rates will influence index. Data due at 2350 GMT.

Halifax CB 22:48 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Fixed the tick bug in the MT code this evening - if you notice lots of movement on ticks at the end of lines, you'll want the updated version(s). Compiled and source code Here
(sorry for the spam GVI).

Syd 22:22 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Chinese pour savings deposits into stock market
More than 70 billion yuan (9.1 billion US dollars) was transferred from savings accounts in Shanghai to stock trading accounts in the first four months of this year, the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China estimated on Saturday. Link

Syd 21:48 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
House prices 'overvalued by 20pc'
BRENDON O'HAGAN/Sunday Star-Times
TOO HIGH: After a big jump in interest rates, house prices for investors are overvalued by about 20 per cent, according to Westpac. After a big jump in interest rates, house prices for investors are overvalued by about 20 per cent, Westpac says. The bank expects the housing market to cool down "on all fronts". Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said that if fixed-term mortgage rates remained high for a long time they would have a "big impact" on the housing market late this year and next year. The "investor value" of an average home is about $65,000 less than present market prices, after an extremely sharp jump in fixed mortgage rates this year from 7.9 per cent in February to 8.6 per cent for five year terms, Westpac says.

Syd 21:24 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--This summer's bonuses at 247 major corporations will average Y831,009, up 3.05%, for a fifth straight year-on-year rise, according to interim data compiled Sunday by Nikkei Inc. Automakers and steelmakers will dole out more than Y1 million per employee on average, reflecting their robust earnings, The Nikkei reported in its Monday morning edition.

Syd 20:40 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (AP)--Japan's Defense Ministry plans to develop a high-powered laser capable of shooting down missiles to boost its defenses against North Korea, a news report said Sunday. The ministry will ask for funds next fiscal year to develop a ground-based laser capable of destroying ballistic missiles in midair, according to the Mainichi newspaper.

Tonbridge AL 19:25 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
From the GVI AFX News links :
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US and Iran plan to hold landmark talks to thrash out security in war-torn Iraq, but will steer clear of the Islamic republic's nuclear ambitions, officials said.

The talks "in the next few weeks" are likely to involve Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Baghdad, and an Iranian delegation, National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.
"This should not be seen as a particular moment but as part of an ongoing process to get Iran to play a constructive role in Iraq," he told reporters aboard the Air Force One presidential airplane...................

LKWD JJ 19:22 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
how will the latest escalation in iraq with regards to the 3 us servicemen effect the fx mkts, and usd in paricular? or is it just another day at the office ?

Halifax CB 16:03 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
And I just updated it again....

Halifax CB 14:47 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
I have put the latest Kalman filter software up at my black box directory, along with some notes. I have also put up the MQL4 binaries for those that have trouble with compiling; they can be used as is. But I really prefer only to pass along the code (that avoids possible virus problems).

Melbourne Qindex 13:50 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 120.04. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.61. The daily cycle projected series indicates that the lower barrier is located at 119.19 // 119.38. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 118.60.

Daily Cycle : ... 118.60 - 118.86* - 118.99 - 119.19 // 119.38* - 119.64 - 119.77 - 119.90* - [120.16] - 120.42* - 120.55 - 120.68 - 120.94* // 121.14 - 121.34 - 121.47 - 121.73 ...

Melbourne Qindex 13:11 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my daily and 3-day cycle reference 1.3576 is a resistant point, 1.3435 and 1.3465 are supporting points. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily directional indicator of [1.3524] - [1.3548] - [1.3561]. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is weak when it is trading under 1.3494. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the projected supporting level at 1.3407 - 1.3410.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.3410 - 1.3429* - 1.3438 - 1.3452 // 1.3467* - 1.3486 - 1.3495 - 1.3505* - [1.3524] - 1.3543* - 1.3552 - 1.3562 - 1.3581* // 1.3595 - 1.3610 - 1.3619* - 1.3638 ...

Melbourne Qindex 12:27 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the resistant range is expected at 1.1184 - 1.1272. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.1249 - 1.1253 and the market has a good potential to test the projected supporting range of 1.0815 - 1.0981. The initial consolidating range is [1.1091] - [1.1114] - [1.1160]. It is likely that the market will tackle the lower barrier of the daily cycle at 1.1056 // 1.1067.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.1021 - 1.1037* - 1.1044 - 1.1056 // 1.1067* - 1.1083 - 1.1091 - 1.1098* - [1.1114] - 1.1129* - 1.1137 - 1.1145 - 1.1160* // 1.1172 - 1.1183 - 1.1191* - 1.1206 ...

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:15 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--A further weakening of the Swiss franc could lead to higher inflation, and would force the Swiss National Bank to react, Thomas Jordan, a member of the central bank's policy setting directorate, said Sunday in a newspaper interview. "A weak franc tends to stimulate demand and economic growth in Switzerland, and via rising import prices, increases inflation," Jordan told Swiss weekly NZZ am Sonntag. "If and when this happens, we have to react." Asked whether the Swiss franc was undervalued, Jordan said: "There isn't any Swiss franc weakness against the dollar and the Japanese yen, but considering the trade-weighted average, the franc has lost more than 10% of its value in real terms over the past three to four years." Jordan said that carry trades - in which investors borrow money in a currency with low interest rates and invest in one with higher ones - may be partly to blame for the Swiss franc's weakness. "In the short run, foreign exchange rates are heavily influenced by market participants' perception of future interest rate differentials and the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations," he said. In the current market environment, carry trades are attractive, he added. Asked if the SNB plans any more interest rate hikes, Jordan said: "From today's point of view, the phase in which we need more interest rate increases hasn't been fully concluded yet." The SNB has increased interest rates steadily over the past four years, in a policy termed "normalization" that describes the termination of the prior expansive policy. Jordan also said that he expects inflation to stand at around 1% by year-end, which is below the 2% threshold the SNB considers damaging. "We don't see any big inflation risks for the time being, despite the Swiss franc's weakening," Jordan said.

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle ) : Upside targeting range is 1.1125 - 1.1192. Downside targeting range is 1.0990 - 1.1057.

Melbourne Qindex 11:45 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the supporting range is expected at 0.8156 - 0.8202. The market is going to consolidate between [1.8309] and [0.8319] initially during early period of this week. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8314 // 0.8329. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8269.

Daily Cycle : ... 0.8269 - 0.8289* - 0.8299 - 0.8314 // 0.8329* - 0.8349 - 0.8359 - 0.8369* - [0.8390] - 0.8410* - 0.8420 - 0.8430 - 0.8450* // 0.8465 - 0.8480 - 0.8490* - 0.8510 ...

HK [email protected] 11:38 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
.Yuan appreciation cause for concern

The need to control the currency is now a real headache for the Chinese government according to Thomson. The interdependence between the Yuan and the tumbling US dollar has meant that the Chinese government is now spending $35 billion per month to prop up the dollar. This is eating up their currently reserves.

HK [email protected] 10:47 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:12 GMT May 13, 2007

First it is important to watch how a strong correction in China will affect in all Asia and even worldwide.

When people or funds begin to lose heavily they will sell every instrument to produce the needed cash, this will include metals and any commodities. I believe that stock markets worldwide are somehow nationalised ,at least to the extent of using them as tools for economic policies. Like in the US a continuous rising stock market is of the best interest of a stronger USD and inflow of more needed borrowed money from the neighbours. I dont think the Gov. of China is so ignorant as of being out of control of the situation.
No one knows Karl Marx better than the communists:That stock markets are a mechanism to rip off the masses of their savings. And so will it be.

hk ab 10:12 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
RF//What do you see the blow off effect from China stox mkt on gold and metals?

HK [email protected] 10:03 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:50 GMT May 13, 2007

A correction of 1000 points or more in the Chinese stock market will be a very easy way to control excess of liquidity in the system, much easier and cheaper than interest hike which increases cost of living and cost of production. I believe that the market will get it's blow by order from the higher windows, not too late from now.

BTW this is the best way to educate the masses about risks in stock markets investments...BURN THEIR FINGERS LOL.

SO; 2 birds in one shot.

Syd 08:41 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Spanish law targets house prices

London NYAM 08:13 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:30 GMT May 13, 2007 //
This week will be interesting for the JPY should it fail to muster strength for another push. I suspect a range to some new relative lows.
Lot of Chiinese sale-junk on here.

Melbourne Qindex 07:57 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle ) : Upside targeting range is 0.8351 - 0.8416. Downside targeting range is 0.8156 - 0.8221.

Syd 07:56 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
Barron's(5/14) D.C. Current: Cold Winds Of Russia
By Jim McTague
The surly Russian bear is making ominous moves in the Baltic, strengthening our view that Russia is no fit place to risk investment capital. EU members grouse that Russia's behavior should delay its acceptance to the World Trade Organization. Of course, that would be a negative for Russia's stock market.

Syd 07:50 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
China Cautions Investors: Risks Involved In Stock Markets
BEIJING (AP)--China has reached for the brake pedal on its booming stock markets, with a securities watchdog saying investors must be educated on the risks involved and the government announcing plans to widen a struggling program for overseas investing.

In an announcement late Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said the exchanges, securities dealers and others had to educate investors on the risks of stock market investing.

The caution comes as stock market fever grips China. Prices have soared nearly 50% this year - on top of a jump of 130% in the Shanghai Composite Index in 2006 - with a record number of newcomers pouring in money.

"With the stock market becoming more brisk, more and more new investors who lack the awareness of risk are entering and market irregularities keep rising," a commission notice said.

It said stock markets and dealers "should show the risk and educate investors on their own initiative."

The commission said caution was especially needed for those who mortgage their homes or dip into retirement savings to finance a frenzy of trading known as "chao gu," or "stir-frying stocks."

On Wednesday, the Shanghai index passed the 4,000-point mark for the first time, and economists say it could break 5,000 in a month.

Wednesday's trading volume for Shanghai and China's second smaller exchange in the southern city of Shenzhen exceeded all other markets in Asia, including giant Tokyo.

Also late Friday, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said on its Web site that it had eased restrictions on commercial banks for investing in overseas stock markets, expanding on a limited program started a year ago.

The banking watchdog said stocks can now account for up to 50% of the value of overseas investment products offered by Chinese and foreign banks, with a single stock capped at 5% of a product's asset value.

Previously under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program banks could invest client funds only in fixed-income products. But China's booming markets meant few were interested in investing overseas. Worries about the appreciation of the yuan also kept investors away from the program.

The move could boost the flow of funds overseas, although Jonathan Anderson, an economist for UBS Securities Asia, said the move was "a small step."

He said in a research note that the government acted because it was worried about a jump in capital inflows and the rapid increase in domestic stock markets, but that any increase in capital outflows would be too small to have an impact.

The move comes ahead of closely watched talks with Washington. Chinese and U.S. trade envoys are due to meet May 23-24 in Washington for talks on Beijing's surpluses, currency controls, product piracy and other contentious issues.

Some U.S. lawmakers are pushing for punitive tariffs on imports of Chinese goods if Beijing fails to ease currency controls that critics say keep its currency undervalued, giving exporters an unfair price advantage and adding to China's trade surpluses.

Alaska Moon 05:42 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
I am surprised that Jay/John has not "wiped-out" all that spam !! LOL

Prague viktor 04:24 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
G/day Jay!

thank u sir its working wish u a G/w

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:30 GMT May 13, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 20:46 //
hey - really interesting that weekly chart USDJPY shows 2 consecutive Dojis
interesting pattern is also in the weekly EURJPY - the same is line the 3 weekly candles (W34-36 Aug 2006) -
for the new week maybe it will be range play within 161.10 - 163


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