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Forex Forum Archive for 05/14/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:47 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Opposition Australian Labor Party extends big lead over governing Coalition in latest Newspoll voter opinion survey taken May 11-13. Coalition legislators were cockahoop after May 8 government budget, their hubris fueled by overwhelmingly media endorsement of it, but results of this poll, similar Galaxy poll yesterday, will see them come back to earth with a thud. Workplace Relations Minister Hockey says government expected a time lag before positive impact of budget flows through to survey results. But reality is, Newspoll result will rock government to its core, seriously stress morale; result, which only confirms trends evident since Labor elected leader Kevin Rudd in December, suggests an "it's time" factor now entrenched

Melbourne Qindex 23:46 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
NYC 13:30 GMT May 14, 2007
QIndex. I find it hard to interpret what you say in your analysis. In the case of the eur/usd, it that a bearish forecast as long as it stays below 1.3561 and the 1.3576 resistance?

========================================

I didn't make it clear in my first response. Yes, basically you got the whole idea already.


EUR/USD : The normal trading range of my monthly cycle charts is 1.3407 - 1.4048 (see the graphic presentation in my website). The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3441 and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the critical supporting level of 1.3407 - 1.3409. The normal trading range of my weekly cycle is 1.3494 - 1.3709 and anything below 1.3386 is negative. My 3-day cycle reference indicates that 1.3465* is a significant number. ( 3-Day Cycle Reference : ... 1.3435 - 1.3465* - 1.3480 - 1.3503 // 1.3525* - 1.3555 - 1.3570 - 1.3585* - [1.3615] - 1.3645* - 1.3660 - 1.3675 - 1.3705* // 1.3728 - 1.3750 - 1.3765* - 1.3795 ...). The market was a ble to pick support around 1.3465 on last Thursday and Friday. However it the market is trading below 1.3435 which is the lower limit of the 3-day cycle reference, a negative signal will be hoisted in my system. In fact a warning signal has been hoisted in my system when the market is trading below 1.3576 which is the lower limit of the daily cycle cycle reference ( Daily Cycle Reference : ... 1.3576 - 1.3587* - 1.3593 - 1.3602 // 1.3610* - 1.3622 - 1.3628 - 1.3633* - [1.3645] - 1.3656* - 1.3662 - 1.3668 - 1.3679* // 1.3688 - 1.3696 - 1.3702* - 1.3714 ...). Therefore this is a period of uncertainty and a range market is expected for the time being. I like to watch the movement of EUR/CAD and will use it as the leading indicator.


I will update the following later today :

Melbourne Qindex 13:11 GMT May 13, 2007
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my daily and 3-day cycle reference 1.3576 is a resistant point, 1.3435 and 1.3465 are supporting points. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily directional indicator of [1.3524] - [1.3548] - [1.3561]. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is weak when it is trading under 1.3494. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the projected supporting level at 1.3407 - 1.3410.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3410 - 1.3429* - 1.3438 - 1.3452 // 1.3467* - 1.3486 - 1.3495 - 1.3505* - [1.3524] - 1.3543* - 1.3552 - 1.3562 - 1.3581* // 1.3595 - 1.3610 - 1.3619* - 1.3638 ..censored

Wellington, N.Z. 23:25 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 22:44 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 22:42 :-))

RIC fxq 22:42 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:00 GMT

A ROusing Game of Silly buggers ;-)

dc CB 22:37 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CAD speculations. FWIW.....

from Tobin/Changewave
RUNNING WITH THE WOLVES: CANADIAN ENERGY TRUSTS

I'm getting more and more signs that the takeover wave is rushing toward our Canadian energy trust plays -- but there are wolves along the path hunting for unwary investors. Let me explain.

A firm called TRC Capital is out there making a "mini-tender offer" for shares of Canetic Resources Trust (CNE). Because the offer (like all mini-tenders) applies to less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares, this smaller version of a full-blown tender isn't subject to the SEC's full goodie bag of disclosure requirements and protections.

I spoke with several of the head honchos from the Canadian energy trusts last week, and it looks like things are really starting to heat up on the private equity side. No fewer than four different private equity deals are rumored to be in the works right now going after Canadian energy trusts, and the companies involved read like a who's who of investment banking giants.

I'm hearing that Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Bros. and T. Boone Pickens are among the eager beavers ready to fix, with takeovers, what the Canadian Parliament has broken -- some as early as in the next two to four months.

Wellington, N.Z. 22:10 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Euro reaction today should set-up next leg of advance. Ozzy
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Syd 22:00 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
You are still a nation of Basil Fawltys who mock us - say Germans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=454769&in_page_id=1770

Geneva NYAM 21:41 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
You could be right. Met with a curreny stratagist at an inst. today (Marcus H) he is calling the top in the Eur and expecting 129/130 and GBP continued strength. Dont know if i necessarily agree but im sure he is not blowing steam. Okay cant take this method of communication so gl gt im signing out till i get home.

LKWD JJ 21:37 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Geneva NYAM 21:14 GMT May 14, 2007
targets are hard sometimes to reach but i think the support lows are in. how much upside is hard to tell. they the boe did raise so if would be that bad maybe they couldve waited another month for stronger data.

Syd 21:30 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Assessing the cycle – is it really different this time?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/df73422a-0166-11dc-8b8c-000b5df10621.html

Geneva NYAM 21:14 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:37 GMT May 14, 2007// Not doubting the possibility of your target but i wonder about the CPI figure being downside prone given that the BoE had the figures to look at last week.
Geneva DS// currently in your town on a terrible hotel keyboard. Was wondering about your NAsdaq GBPJPY correlation! What is that from? What is the correlation or is this just an eyeballer?

GVI john 20:58 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/14/2007 20:14	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.354	120.29	1.2188	1.9783	1.1071	0.6844	162.87
High	1.3558	120.46	1.2209	1.9845	1.1125	0.6845	163.2
Low	1.3525	120.04	1.2169	1.9782	1.1062	0.6823	162.43
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3524	120.06	1.2149	1.9777	1.1050	0.6798	161.81
10 day	1.3559	120.08	1.2119	1.9837	1.1046	0.6803	162.34
20 day	1.3583	119.56	1.2072	1.9889	1.1117	0.6795	161.70
50 day	1.3426	118.62	1.2109	1.9670	1.1391	0.6790	158.49
100 day	1.3240	119.33	1.2223	1.9594	1.1541	0.6722	157.33
200 day	1.3039	118.33	1.2275	1.9287	1.1398	0.6725	153.72

GVI john 20:56 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Como Perrie 20:53 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Canada's TSX plunges over 100 points.

LKWD JJ 20:37 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CABLE looking good short term.19770 good support(stop area) maybe upside surprise but at least 19820. short covering in front of cpi should get it there. and cpi can push higher.imho.

RIC fxq 20:18 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 20:05 GMT

agreed, just correlating the USDJPY down slide with my near term EURJPY projection.

slv sam 20:05 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 19:02 GMT /
euryen could correct to 156.50!GT

moscow mike 19:41 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Gold below 665 may break apart...

RIC fxq 19:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 18:52 GMT

which would equate to EURJPY somewhere sub 160.75 no doubt.

slv sam 18:52 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
nyc eric 18:46 GMT /
market situation is changing and we must be flexible no?

nyc eric 18:46 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
sam, may i ask why the big change from last week on usd/jpy?

slv sam 13:49 GMT May 10, 2007
usdjpy to 121.30 imho!GT

slv sam 07:51 GMT May 10, 2007
usdjpy may fly to 122 by tomorrow!GT

RIC fxq 18:42 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:15 GMT

cb, a lot of them are proprietary but most are likely based on those same or similar "rocket science" equations you saw.

I do some low level, practical "quant" stuff" which I have programmed in QB4.5 using my own database I collected over many years.

slv sam 18:18 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
me i see usdyen at 119.25 by tomorrow close!GT

Halifax CB 18:15 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
fxq - any knowlege of what types of models they are using? Fwiw, I picked up a book the other day (mathematical methods for foreign exchange)...not a single word about doji's, h&s, point and figures etc. in the whole 600 pages....The equations would make a physicist green equation-envy....

RIC fxq 18:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:51 GMT

on the right track cb but imc(onsidered)o the type accounts you note I think have become much more quantitatively oriented in recent years and even more so in recent months.

Sofia mik 18:07 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 16:33
Tnx !

Halifax CB 17:51 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 16:18 GMT May 14, 2007
My impression is that it s becoming more technical, not less, but in a very different sense than it used to be. While traders may still use traditional methods in the ST, the institutions (governments, banks & funds, big business) that really determine the exchange rates seem to be depending heavily on economic models that make Black-Scholes look like kindergarten...Hence the emphasis on news, since the news picks up the numbers which are the basis of the economic models.

GVI john 16:33 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Check out our wide range of tools for Forex Trading from Global-View.com. Most are free!

CANBERRA JD 16:18 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Nah, its the US insitutions that are news junkies. The london traders give us some good technical moves. But since around august last year, the US market has been 90% fundamental. Speculators, trying to shake a bunch of people out of the market. Pointless moves leading to pointless reversals, etc etc. And now look where they are.. Stuck, making nothing. Coz they got nothing.

LA BV 16:03 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Is anyone else bored with this session? It is like the market has become a news junkie and needs a fresh dose for movement.

USA Zeus 15:52 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 15:26 GMT May 14, 2007
Actually they had a Hooters out there on El Paseo- the Rodeo Drive of the desert but I think it was too much for the geriatrics.

Palm Desert Lucky 15:28 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
HAHAHAHA WA WA WAAAAAAH....
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Haifa ac 15:26 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
"HOT AND HEAVY forex chat "

Hooters in Atlanta on 4th and Main fits the bill.

Palm Desert Lucky 15:16 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Hi Folks, is there anyone here in PST? I'm wondering when the next "BIG" reports are coming out. It's been a while since my last venture into forex, and trying to get a feel for things again.

hk ab 15:15 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
RP//thanks, am currently watch XAG carefully.

NY RP 15:11 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:02 GMT May 14, 2007
Great question. 666 held last week where it found good interest from buyers. The 675 to 677 area is resistance. If 665 t0 666 cannot hold then a test of 650 is possible. Technicals have been bruised and will need some fixing. Still on the belief that 740 to 750 will be met soon. It is good to look at weekly closes for Gold for the bigger picture. GL

hk ab 15:10 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Alex, are you around?

Como Perrie 15:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
okidoki..done for today. I'll check It up around closings or tomorrow, after this slow monday. bibi

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, should one expect Paulson attending NBA playoff games as a reflection of his confidence that his nutz are safe ahead of the Strategic Economic Dialogue of May 22-24 when Wu Yi - "fight until the end" - shows up to tackle trade and other disputes with U.S. ?

madrid mm 15:07 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:07 GMT May 14, 2007

I am glad to read they become obsolete faster than me....I hope so, anyway ! 8-)

hk ab 15:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
RP, any level are you seeing gold moving towards now?

Como Perrie 14:54 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Heart of politics beats in rallies ahead of elections - Turkey Zaman Daily

Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators gathered in the Aegean province of İzmir in the latest anti-government rally ahead of the upcoming general elections, slated for July 22.

Journalist Tuncay Özkan rouses the crowd with his fiery statements at the republican rally. The rally, attended by three leftist opposition leaders, came a day after up to 100,000 supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) raised gigantic Turkish flags and chanted slogans denouncing the opposition as they enthusiastically listened to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül at a meeting in the eastern province of Erzurum.

HK REVDAX 14:52 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
I seldom understand those support and resistance levels and the various kinds of magic numbers such as Fibo and C9s. But when I turn the chart upside down, i can see $/CHF being able to challenge 1.2249 before tomorrow's close.

Any disagreement?

NY RP 14:36 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
It appears as if the big dogs are trying to get the Chinese markets to put in a correction or a top with all the latest releases. If the markets wont do it maybe then can. Interesting.

Auckland peat 14:35 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
i too have been shorting e/y tonite but at the level it is now... 132.80ish so need more attacking plz. ;+)

Como Perrie 14:35 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Cable on wednesday might have Its key day with the quarterly BOE inflation report released. If sounds dovish cable might trade between 1.9580 and 1.9750 then, at least counting from current early developments. 1.9450 a major target.

Como Perrie 14:30 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
am watching eurjpy in the days ahead to early next week (except nikkei sharp drops to drive It down faster) somewhere 159.50 to 160.

for today am yet short from early London cable and watching 1.9770/60 support

Global-View 14:24 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
AFX has an interesting article entitled:

FOCUS Forex market gets M&A boost, weak dollar also driving corporate bids

If anyone would like a copy, send us an EMAIL

hk ab 14:20 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
the big boyz will attack e/j after finishing their mission in XAG and XAU.
They are aiming at an aggregate effect

Como Perrie 14:13 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:08 GMT May 14, 2007

was thinking same, but maybe too soon as of yet to me. not saying that yours will not be a good trade, but this week yen related are bit obscure in general given the BOJ and G8 looming. Obviously if tomorrow the nikkei drops 500 points then this eurjpy might drop into 160...this I agree

hk ab 14:11 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
zeus thinking the same thing
sell 163.15

USA Zeus 14:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Short EUR/JPY 163.13

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   

madrid mm 13:57 GMT May 14, 2007

not worth trading with such things. Ive been on private systems too during and around the y2k. early 90s just the very big international banks been into as was a billion or more investment...nowadays is just coupla pips machine rush at Its best..

In general the rule for such technology/softare that at the fund I was with have fixed is that all those "things", black boxes or whatever marketing name you would love to apply to sell such stuff (note the commercial software is usually the worst),

IS THAT WITHIN APPROX 2 YEARS ALL THOSE (EXPENSIVE TECH INTELLIGENCE INVESTMENTS) BECOME OBSOLETE

Singapore fs 14:06 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 13:36 GMT May 14, 2007
Totally agreeable....

madrid mm 13:57 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Some more blackbox article..8-)

So the movie "The Terminator" was not that far streched after all, was it ?

It's no secret that algorithmic trading is in vogue on Wall Street. But .......Click here

Nice mix we have in here... The Terminator + The Carry On movies... LOL

london wt 13:40 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
think we will be in consolidation mode with small moves until the inflation data is out.

Melbourne Qindex 13:36 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
NYC 13:30 GMT - EUR/USD : The market is under consolidation and it is basically a range market.

NYC 13:30 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
QIndex. I find it hard to interpret what you say in your analysis. In the case of the eur/usd, it that a bearish forecast as long as it stays below 1.3561 and the 1.3576 resistance?

ABHA FXS 13:30 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD
Sterling acted very similar to the euro for the major part of the past week with a very slow Monday followed by a down day on Tuesday, but while the euro had a consolidation day on Wednesday cable made a dash north only to get pushed down at the 2.00 level, Thursday’s price action was again in line with the other majors, cable dropping just under 200 points in one day, while the pair made a new low on Friday getting very close to the 1.9750 level it bounced back and closed the day above 1.9800. Retesting May 4th low of 1.9840 on Friday cable has entered into an unclear area, if it manages to break above 1.9840/50 area the next resistance is basically the 2.00 level, once above that we have to look at 2.0060/70 area as intermediary resistance on the road to the YTD high of 2.0133; if on the other hand the 1.9840/50 resistance holds the pair might become pressured to move lower, if that is the case the 1.9750 level represents its closes support and a strong point for a reversal, lower down we have February 27 high of 1.9670 and the 1.9550 level as significant support zones.


Resistance Levels


2.0200 – Round number
2.0133 – April 18th High
1.9840/50 – May 4th / December 1st 2006 High

Support Levels


1.9750/60 – retested level, May 11th low
1.9670 – February 27th High
1.9550 - .50 Fib

ABHA FXS 13:28 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD
Euro showed some clear signs of weakness against the US dollar this week, as did the other majors. With an undecided price action move on Monday, euro fell sharply on Tuesday consolidated under the 1.3550 level on Wednesday only to continue its south journey Thursday making a low of 1.3560. Thursday May 10th low of 1.3560 was also the low for the next day when the US dollar strength just disappeared and EurUsd retraced close to the 1.3523/50 resistance area. If the down move is to continue price needs to break bellow the 1.3560 level and start heading towards December 3rd high of 1.3365 where the next support level is, bellow that we can see January 7th high of 1.3300 and February 27th high of 1.3260 as strong support which might revert the down movement. If on the other hand Friday’s bounce of the lows is not just a retracement of the euro fall, but it proves to be the beginning of another push north we have our sights set on 1.3630 as first target and above that on the YTD high of 1.3680.

Resistance Levels


1.4532 – March 2005 High
1.3668 – December 2004 High
1.3630 – May 7th High
1.3523 – April 16th Low

Support Levels


1.3459 – May 10th/11th Lows
1.3365 – December 3rd High
1.3300 – January 7th High
1.3260 – February 27th High

Melbourne Qindex 13:03 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my daily and 3-day cycle reference 1.3576 is a resistant point, 1.3435 and 1.3465 are supporting points. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily directional indicator of [1.3524] - [1.3548] - [1.3561]. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is weak when it is trading under 1.3494. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the projected supporting level at 1.3407 - 1.3410.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.3410 - 1.3429* - 1.3438 - 1.3452 // 1.3467* - 1.3486 - 1.3495 - 1.3505* - [1.3524] - 1.3543* - 1.3552 - 1.3562 - 1.3581* // 1.3595 - 1.3610 - 1.3619* - 1.3638 ...


USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 120.04. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.61. The daily cycle projected series indicates that the lower barrier is located at 119.19 // 119.38. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 118.60.

Daily Cycle : ... 118.60 - 118.86* - 118.99 - 119.19 // 119.38* - 119.64 - 119.77 - 119.90* - [120.16] - 120.42* - 120.55 - 120.68 - 120.94* // 121.14 - 121.34 - 121.47 - 121.73 ...

GENEVA DS 13:03 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Sofia...

You are not the only one seeing a strong correction or fall of Chinese Stock Market. Probably you will be right one day... the only 2 similar things I do remember are... Nasdaq 1999/2000... most people became bearish i n 1500 area first.... then it trippled before collapse... Gold in 79/80... most were extremely bearish around 250... it rose to 800 ish before collapse... so china.... most are bearish since 3 month... another doubling would not surprise before loosing may be 80 pct... we are always much too early... look USD rally or JPY rally.... gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 13:00 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The 3-day cycle cycle reference indicates that the market is working on the barrier at 1.9828 // 1.9890. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below [1.9808] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 1.9672 // 1.9700. On the other hand the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.9902.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9589 - 1.9626 - 1.9644 - 1.9672 // 1.9700* - 1.9737 - 1.9755 - 1.9774* - [1.9811] - 1.9848* - 1.9866 - 1.9885 - 1.9922* // 1.9950 - 1.9977 - 1.9996* - 2.0033 ...


USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : My daily cycle and 3-day cycle reference indicates that 1.2190 - 1.2205 is a resistant range. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2215 - 1.2220. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2123. The lower barrier of the daily cycle charts is located at 1.2097 // 1.2117.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2039 - 1.2065* - 1.2078 - 1.2097 // 1.2117* - 1.2142 - 1.2155 - 1.2168* - [1.2194] - 1.2220* - 1.2233 - 1.2246 - 1.2272* // 1.2291 - 1.2311 - 1.2324* - 1.2349 ...

Melbourne Qindex 13:00 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the resistant range is expected at 1.1184 - 1.1272. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.1249 - 1.1253 and the market has a good potential to test the projected supporting range of 1.0815 - 1.0981. The initial consolidating range is [1.1091] - [1.1114] - [1.1160]. It is likely that the market will tackle the lower barrier of the daily cycle at 1.1056 // 1.1067.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.1021 - 1.1037* - 1.1044 - 1.1056 // 1.1067* - 1.1083 - 1.1091 - 1.1098* - [1.1114] - 1.1129* - 1.1137 - 1.1145 - 1.1160* // 1.1172 - 1.1183 - 1.1191* - 1.1206 ... .

AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the supporting range is expected at 0.8156 - 0.8202. The market is going to consolidate between [1.8309] and [0.8319] initially during early period of this week. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8314 // 0.8329. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8269.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8269 - 0.8289* - 0.8299 - 0.8314 // 0.8329* - 0.8349 - 0.8359 - 0.8369* - [0.8390] - 0.8410* - 0.8420 - 0.8430 - 0.8450* // 0.8465 - 0.8480 - 0.8490* - 0.8510 ...

Global-View Forex Services 12:56 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
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Sofia Kaprikorn 12:41 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the Shanghai chart - how is this possible to maintain sucha rise...
or the question might be when the correction will happen - much media spin around the Chainese stock market with big names like GS and ML suggesting caution...

to me it's interesting the info impact on the market sentiment:
usually the most optimistic market commentaries mark the start of the correction -- -- so now is interesting after the signals are coming from Chinese CB and major houses - how long will it take..
pls excuse me for the bearish bias - will appreciate more views

london wt 12:33 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Commitment of traders report for pound

divergence of hedge fund positions and retail trader positions. currently retail traders are net long 33027, short 19331 and they have added 2541 long last week

----------------------
SPECULAT CONTRACT

NET QTY LNG-SHT
51997

NET CHG FR PREV
-11996

QTY long
74982

QTY short
22985

----------------------

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:27 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
volatility is very high at turning points

Melbourne Qindex 12:20 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Consolidating range [1.9769] - [1.9808] - [1.9811]

Como Perrie 12:11 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Ref. the upcoming wine crisis at least imo will have a positive effect of lowering wine prices.

See

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5105176.stm

Winemakers will be paid to dig up struggling vineyards as part of radical EU proposals to tackle over-production across Europe.

and

http://www.chianticlassico.com/english/magazine/200411/articolo0.asp
A WINE CRISIS? WE’LL RESPOND WITH MARKETING AND COMMUNICATIONS

Como Perrie 12:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 11:19 GMT May 14, 2007

:))

Wine Hedge funds will soon pay out their customers with bottles instead of classic premia ratios, as the cellars are getting full of unsold crap wines to chemically arranged around y2k to meet the big demand the nasdaq bubble has generated in wine. Now this is gone and prices are lower progressively. Btw the very good wines are maybe just a hundred of the million of producers around the globe.

So maybe will go with the unsold art. Financial minds are not art people.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:53 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY is testing a breakout of the upper channel line but the piercing above is very indecisive -- a possible scenario is funds start to sell into the strength..
GBPJPY is already giving some signs of turning down..

GVI john 11:50 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/14/2007 9:36	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3537	120.26	1.2198	1.9818	1.1093	0.6831	162.81
High	1.355	120.35	1.2206	1.9846	1.1125	0.6839	162.92
Low	1.3524	120.06	1.217	1.98	1.1085	0.682	162.6
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3523	120.06	1.2149	1.9780	1.1055	0.6797	161.85
10 day	1.3558	120.08	1.2119	1.9839	1.1048	0.6803	162.36
20 day	1.3583	119.56	1.2072	1.9890	1.1118	0.6795	161.71
50 day	1.3426	118.62	1.2109	1.9671	1.1391	0.6790	158.49
100 day	1.3240	119.33	1.2223	1.9594	1.1542	0.6722	157.33
200 day	1.3039	118.33	1.2275	1.9287	1.1398	0.6725	153.72

RIC fxq 11:19 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Excellent Pritchard-Evan piece in the Telegraph

Topic is hedge funds but several of the the subjects interviewed had "exciting" and costly experiences with "sure-thing" forex trades.

Gen dk 11:18 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 11:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 11:05 GMT May 14, 2007
Mid june SNB meets for a hike from 1/4 to 1/2, given the 1 pct increase in inflation we have surprisingly seen the latter. But yet time to work on It It seems

GENEVA DS 11:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
on the other hand.... new technologies (WIFI etc...) will help to rise the Nasdaq to 3000plus very soon.... i.e. Nasdaq is correlated with GBP JPY ... so 260.00 in this cross not too far off...

GENEVA DS 11:05 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
New highs here for AUDCHF ... CADCHF... AUDJPY... interesting... even SNB does agree with weakness of CHF now... even tough , they think it is temporary... (probably next 5 years or so...) G8 will certainly mention as usual the carry... but more stops to come.... in USDJPY 12060... EURCHF 16560.... USDCAD 10950... market wrong footet all over the planet.... gl

Como Perrie 11:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Daimler Chrysler is selling Chrysler 5.5 bios euros talked

Como Perrie 11:01 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
I'll see G8 later the week for eventual carry concerns reprise.

Como Perrie 10:59 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 10:54 GMT May 14, 2007

might be, might be not... you know those one band driven nations are never clear when It comes to top power change risks.

Como Perrie 10:58 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The UK economy will face a sharp slowdown if the Bank of England (BoE) hikes interest rates again, and growth will tail off even at the current rate of 5.50 pct, a leading business lobby warned.

In its quarterly economic forecast, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) predicted the BoE's four rate hikes since August, and the likelihood that it will raise again by the end of the year, will cause UK GDP growth to slow from 2.8 pct in 2006 to 2.5 pct in 2007, and to 2.0 pct in 2008.

In February, the BCC was more bullish, predicting average growth of 2.6 pct in 2007 and 2.3 pct for 2008.

"While the May increase in the Bank rate to 5.50 pct was needed to restore credibility, it is questionable whether additional tightening, beyond 5.50 pct, is objectively needed," said David Kern, economic adviser to the BCC, in its latest report.

"The threat of damaging monetary overkill is now very serious," he added.

Haifa ac 10:54 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:12 GMT May 14//
Apparently was a false report by Maan news.

GVI john 10:52 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Mtl JP 10:51 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
London 05:49 / yes. yes. which David:
- with an acute grasp of political correctness
- boss from h3ll? :-)

Melbourne Qindex 10:46 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.6797 - 0.6848. The upper barrier of the daily cycle reference is located at 0.6851* // 0.6857.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.6769 - 0.6777* - 0.6781 - 0.6787 // 0.6793* - 0.6801 - 0.6805 - 0.6809* - [0.6817] - 0.6825* - 0.6829 - 0.6833 - 0.6841* // 0.6847 - 0.6853 - 0.6857* - 0.6865 ...

Como Perrie 10:03 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f62f91a0-017d-11dc-8b8c-000b5df10621.html

MUMBAI -- India's growing currency reserves could be used to finance local infrastructure projects if a scheme being set up with 3i, the UK-based private equity group, receives central bank approval.

Melbourne Qindex 09:59 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY (Weekly Cycle)  : The daily cycle reference indicates that the upper barrier is located at 108.79* // 109.03 and the lower barrier is expected at 106.70 // 106.93*. The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that a pullback is an imminent. The weekly cycle upper barrier is positioning at 108.39* // 108.88. The odds are high that the market will test the supporting strength of 107.08*.


Daily Cycle : ... 107.42 - 107.62* - 107.71 - 107.86 // 108.01* - 108.20 - 108.30 - 108.39* - [108.59] - 108.78* - 108.88 - 108.97 - 109.17* // 109.31 - 109.46 - 109.56* - 109.75 ...

shanghai bc 09:53 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 00:50 GMT May 14, 2007

Expecting Eur/usd to find a good support in 1.3400-1.3350 region before continuing its north-bound march..

Cape Town 09:36 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Re last para of 09:17 ... here's a chart showing performance of gold versus the majors.

Como Perrie 09:29 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:17 GMT May 14, 2007

Well, I do not agree with that analyst, so far might be wrong or right on his calls, but the basis from where he starts denotes very low knowledge of what is the big agreement behind the euro.

Syd 09:17 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Is the Euro bull running out of control - Moneyweek.com
14.05.2007
"They're treating the Euro as if it was the old German D-Mark," says Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, "but it's not. Germany has regained competitiveness. It has a whopping current surplus and can withstand a higher Euro: France, Italy, Spain, Greece, and Ireland cannot."

Spain is now running a current account deficit worth more than 9% of GDP and its housing market is tipping into freefall as Euro rates rise. Greece took seven years to cut its state deficit below the agreed Eurozone limit, but it was too late; more than 42% of its outstanding bonds are due for repayment by 2009. Total government debt in Athens is second only to Italy, which in turn has suffered a drop in labor cost competitiveness compared with Germany of between one-fifth and one-third in the last decade.

Late last month the central bank of Ireland warned that the Celtic Tiger's own real estate bubble can't bear further interest-rate hikes....and now the French have elected a new president who's vowed to "to launch a diplomatic offensive...to weaken the Euro," reports Le Monde.

"There isn’t a single country in the world where money isn’t a political instrument serving growth and employment," said Nicholas Sarkozy during the election campaign ending last Sunday. "Everybody else is protecting himself; Europe cannot be the only one being disarmed."

"I am asking that we do with the Euro what Americans do with the Dollar, the Japanese with the Yen and the Chinese with their Yuan. Is it too much to ask that the ECB push down the Euro to obtain a more favorable exchange rate?"

Trouble is, the European Central Bank has been doing all it can to debase the Euro, as we'll see in Part II. Yet still the world wants to bid up the currency.Last month the Euro popped above $1.3680, up by two-thirds versus the Dollar from six years ago. Early in May, the Euro hit a fresh life-time high against the Japanese Yen. Way up there at ¥163, it has risen by more than 80% against the world's cheapest money since mid-2000.
Versus the Swiss Franc, old faithful of the world's top five currencies, it's climbed 13% since 2002. Since February this year, it's even knocked Sterling – darling of central bank and fixed-income reserve managers everywhere – down by more than 4%.Sterling itself has been trading around $2.00 per Pound, a 26-year high of its own. One Pound in New York will buy you twice as much stuff as it will in London. Yet still the Euro wins out!Whatever Sarkozy might think, Eurozone interest rates can't explain the Euro's ongoing bull market. Paying 325 basis-points more than the Yen, it still lags the Dollar. Eurozone interest rates sit only 140 points ahead of the Swiss Franc – hardly enough to cover the rent on a suite of hedge-fund offices in Mayfair. Today saw the Bank of England raise rates – and the ECB stick – yet again, the Euro rose versus Sterling!
Then there's the money supply, that mud-covered fossil buried deep inside the European Central Bank's mandate by its ancestor, the German Bundesbank. Broad money in the Eurozone (M3) grew nearly 11% in the year to March 2007, a two-decade record. It's grown by more than one-half since the Esperanto became flesh and began filling cash-tills across Europe at the start of 2002.The Eurozone's population, meantime, has risen only 3.6% in size – including the two million Slovenians who joined at the start of this year. The Eurozone's now got a lot more money per head, in short – exactly the monetary inflation that putting the Bundesbank in charge of Europe was supposed to prevent."Independence doesn't mean indifference," said president-elect Sarkozy of the European Central Bank late last year. "We can't go on with the indifference of a certain number of [central] bankers who don't understand that the priority isn't the fight against inflation which doesn't exist."
Inflation in the Eurozone does exist, however. Even on the official Consumer Price Index, the rising cost of living in Europe has now destroyed 10% of the Euro's purchasing power since it became the world's first sovereign currency to lack its own sovereign.Perhaps it should come as no surprise, therefore, to find that physical gold bullion has gained nearly 50% versus the Euro since the start of 2005. Measured in Dollars, gold has outstripped gains in the Euro by more than one half since 2001.censored

Melb fx 09:16 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
[email protected]

Melb fx 09:15 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY [email protected]@8908...target...8627...timeframe:72 hours.

Como Perrie 09:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Japan Times reports

Social Insurance Agency (SIA), complaining that the agency had lost data on their contributions to the state pension programs.

The loss meant neither they nor the agency could verify how much they had kicked into the programs over the years, they said.

The problem stemmed from lost pension payment slips. About 40 percent of the petitioners appear to have been directly affected: Their pension payments are believed to be less than what the agency owes them.....

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Big push higher by the EurGbp after Uk datas

Como Perrie 08:47 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Cable has lotsa of supports between 1.9740 to 1.9780. We will see next days the market testing there most probably even if the current two way flow ref. carry pairs is holding the market upon sort of slow motion clearing of orders by clearing centers.

Sydney ACC 08:40 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
I am hearing aggressive buying of NZD against JPY currently arounbd 88.82.

Melb fx 08:40 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD 8347 is res. level...

NY tim 08:39 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
what was the low for cable after data - TIA

Como Perrie 08:33 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
UK input prices came in lower than expectations. Output prices in line with YoY bit milder the MoM at 0.1

Wellington, N.Z. 08:33 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EURO/USD bottomed nicely on Friday. Rallied well. Pull-back today
finds Support around 1.3500 for resumption of Uptrend toward Key
1.3680 Resistance, enroute ....

AUD/USD & NZD/USD the BEST currencies for this next leg of Advance versus the USD.

Como Perrie 08:32 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
UK: March house prices +10.9% y/y - DCLG

Syd 08:27 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
US CPI Could Push Risk Aversion Higher Again


0821 GMT [Dow Jones] Risk aversion may be falling now but UBS warns it could spike higher again if US CPI numbers on Tuesday come in higher than expected. The core rate is forecast to rise to +0.2 from +0.1 but a higher reading "would contribute to a stronger USD and higher foreign exchange volatility generally," the bank says. "Positioning in global equity markets and the carry trade is likely still very large, and as such US CPI for April could initiate renewed profit taking on risk trades," it adds.

Como Perrie 08:26 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday we do have the quarterly BOE report on inflation. We will be monitoring their call about inflation to cool down next months. So far might be yet soon for such, but if datas come withing lower ecpectations, might work over next weeks.

Usdindex key resistance between 82.70 to 83

Como Perrie 08:24 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN FUJII: MOF's Fujii reported saying,
- No difference in G8 member countries' basic stance on monitoring
hedge funds. (Rtrs)

Haifa ac 08:12 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi was hospitalized on Sunday after suffering a stroke. Gaddafi's condition was defined as serious, and he is currently in a coma, the Palestinian news agency Ma'an reported.



According to the report, Gaddafi's family members arrived at the hospital to be with him. (Ali Waked)

Como Perrie 08:11 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CHINA: One of China's most influential economists has called for the
government to liberalize the capital account, arguing that billions of
dollars of "hot money" are being channeled into the country via Hong Kong, rendering existing restrictions ineffective.

Como Perrie 08:08 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:06 GMT May 14, 2007
French banks noted behind the move.

Como Perrie 08:07 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Cant' exclude eurcad to catch up stops in the 1.5080/1.51 area later on in US as well.

Como Perrie 08:06 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
EurChf in stop catching mode. Might stabilize in the US session around the 1.65 figure.

Como Perrie 08:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Usd Chf 1.2170/60 to Chf1.2150/45 are key supports for previous jump into 1.2210. Overall slow and old black cats crossing roads here and there.

Como Perrie 07:59 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
U.K. March DCLG house price index to be released as well within the PPI

Como Perrie 07:57 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
The 10-year Bund yield hit 4.25% -- highest level since July 23, 2004

Como Perrie 07:55 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Rumours of an option barrier at Y120.75 together with a confirmed structure at Y121.00 ref. UsdJPy

Como Perrie 07:54 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
btw.. no big seen from here for now except a carry trade rebound or normalisation. largerly usdcad while below 1.1235/80 still wrestling some here.

slv sam 07:53 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
euro will be stronger today imo but I doubt if we see over 1.36!GT

Como Perrie 07:51 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Morn. .. UK input output prices seen relatively milder than previous with a core PPI expected at 2.7 from previous 2.9 pct. Output prices seen at 0.5 vs previous at 0.6

Gen dk 07:35 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:28 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
The European Central Bank may have sounded pretty hawkish at its policy meeting last week but the currency market appears unconvinced.

Despite suggestions from the ECB that rates will rise again later this year, after a widely discounted rate hike in June, support for the euro has failed to materialize.

Some of this may be due to the continued overhang of long speculative euro positions, as well as to the strength of conviction in the market that the U.S. Federal Reserve has preserved a tightening bias.

However, some of the euro's failure to benefit could be coming from the fact that with the impact of past rate rises showing through and with real estate markets in some parts of the euro zone cooling down, pressure for further rate hikes could subside.

"The cooling of several real estate markets suggests that the ECB does not need to be too aggressive," said Erik Sonntag, a euro zone economist with ING Financial Markets in Brussels.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said as much at his press conference last Thursday, when the bank decided to leave rates unchanged for now, but give a strong signal that rates will be hiked, as many expect, at its next meeting June 6.

However, there remains some uncertainty about the overall tenor of his comments.

"While to our mind, Trichet left the door open for another rate rise (after June), markets remain divided, " said Antje Praefcke, a currency strategist with Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

She suggested that this uncertainty is adding to the squaring up of long euro positions.

But, at Societe Generale in Paris, senior fixed income strategist Ciaran O'Hagan said there should be little uncertainty over the ECB's policy stance.

"The statement was more hawkish than April," he said. "It is clear that the ECB will retain a tightening bias after June, given the concerns about capacity utilization and the increased sensitivity about inflation next year."

Not only did Trichet suggest that euro-zone rates are still accommodative but he appeared to remain concerned about the risk to wages, even though the recent IG Metall settlement in Germany came in below expectations. The metal union's annual settlement is general seen as a benchmark for the rest of German industry.

"Despite the German wage agreement...the ECB (has) yet to be assured that a wage inflation spiral has been averted," said ING's Sonntag. "Continued labor market improvements due to high capacity utilization and strong investment spending could lead to further significant wage demands."

"The central bank now sees clear upside risks to price stability and pledges to continue strongly vigilant in the future," said Aurelio Maccario, a senior European economist with UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking in Milan.

He expects the ECB to continue raising rates "after the now certain June increase."

Nevertheless, the weak performance of the euro suggests that this faith in the ECB's hawkishness isn't universal.

Sure, some of the softness in the euro can be put down to continued record high levels of speculative positions taken up in the single currency, that have robbed it of upward momentum in recent weeks and prevented it from rallying back towards its recent record high of $1.3682 reached April 27.

The dollar's own strong performance in the wake of last week's bullish statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve could also be an issue.

With the Fed suggesting that inflation remains its primary concern, there was a nearly universal conclusion that the tightening bias remains firmly in place.

By contrast, analysis of the ECB's statement and Trichet's response to questions in the press conference wasn't so consistent.

For example, while the bank may have said that policy remains accommodative, there were also indications that it was getting back close to neutral.

"The ECB did hint that it was approaching 'neutral' by mentioning that March M3 data demonstrated cooler lending and referring to the effectiveness of previous rate hikes," noted Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London.

"We expect the euro longs to correct further versus the dollar and the yen," he said.

And while falling real estate prices may have been a concern for the U.S. economy in the past, they are now starting to play a part in the ECB's considerations too.

Pointing to the cooling of hot residential booms in France and Spain, Brendan Brown, chief economist with Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International in London, noted that "this slowdown featured in Trichet's comments...as a factor justifying caution in the rate outlook ahead."

DOW Jones

Syd 06:31 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
PBOC May Tighten Policy Faster Than Expected -ML
China's still-strong monetary data may push PBOC to implement tightening policy faster than market expects, says Merrill Lynch. "Over the next three months, we expect a more rapid pace of FX appreciation, another increase in the required reserve ratio and an interest rate hike, with some chance that rates will be hiked by 54bps." Broadest measure of money supply M2 +17.1% at end-April, still above PBOC's 2007 target of 16% growth; total lending +16% at end-April, up from +15.7% on-year end-March

madrid mm 06:07 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

SNB Thomas Jordan, in NZZ am Sonntag, signals further interest rates hikes are needed, as tightening phase not yet fully completed. CHF tends to stimulate demand and growth and could push inflation up. Carry trades possibly having an influence on weakening of CHF. Further CHF weakness could push inflation higher.

NKS: This summer's bonuses at Japanese corporations will average Y831,009 ($6,925), up 3.05%, according to data.

PBoC sets USD/CNY mid rate at new lows of 7.6739.

HK stocks rally after China said it would let qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) invest into overseas.

China Govt Think-tank, Macroeconomic Research Institute, says China's monetary policy now needs to focus primarily on gradually raising interest rates- China Securities Journal.

NZ Q1 actual retail sales +3.8%q/q, vs expect of +1.8%q/q.

Japan April Domestic CGPI +2.2%y/y, above exp of 1.8%, +0.8%m/m.

March c/a surplus +36.9%y/y to Y3.3172trln, vs exp of +22.3%. Trade surplus +62.1% to Y1.7820trln.

FT: UK might now be a more inflationary place. It does not mean BoE will keep raising interest rates regardless, but it will require a verifiable decline in medium -term inflationary pressure for BoE to regain the command over inflation.

WSJ: DaimlerChrysler is expected to announce a deal to sell a controlling stake in Chrysler Group to Cerberus Capital.Merck says it will sell its generics business to U.S. Mylan Laboratories for EUR4.9b ($6.6b) in cash.

Relatively quiet day, with Kiwi being the "first mover" rising to highs of 0.7384 from 0.7329 after the stronger Retail Sales ignite talks that RBNZ may yet have to hike OCR from 7.75% to 8.00% in June/July, and pushing NZD/JPY to 88.70 from 88.15.

Topside saw big US investment houses, Swiss, German selling, preventing stoploss above 0.7385 from being hit.

Talks of profit-taking sales from Japan brokerages/ securities house in both AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, with the Japanese selling AUD/JPY from its 15-yr highs 100.30-40 as well, on profit-taking. Interest still to buy Carry trades.

Focus still on any large USD/JPY sales from Japanese custodian/ agricultural bank linked to tom's quarterly US Treasury coupons, but that did not happen with fixing at 120.23 - may happen tomorrow?

Focus on rising CNY, new highs ahead of Friday's G8, where US Trsy Paulson will be absent (German Finmin Steinbruek was away for a family holiday in Namibia, and was not present at the April G7).

GBP/USD could rise on FT article about UK possibly entering inflationary period - and may require more actions (hikes) from BoE. GBP/USD bids at 1.98 lows, with stoploss on break of 1.9855-60, while EUR/GBP finding resistance at 0.6830-50. EUR/USD seeing some offers at 1.3550, with speculation of more sovereign, East Europeans, Russia bids at 1.35 lows, and focus on EUR/JPY.

USD/CHF steady after SNB Jordan comments, EUR/CHF seeing some resistance at 1.6500-10, cautious of any SNB offers/ rumours.

Nikkei +0.76% or 133pts at 17,687. JGBs lower on back of firmer Nikkei, 10-year yield +0.030% at 1.,670%,

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.06/120.24, EUR/USD 1.3530/1.3550, GBP/USD 1.98161/1.9845, USD/CHF 1.2170/1.2186, AUD/USD 0.8314/0.8352, NZD/USD 0.7332/0.7384.

madrid mm 06:01 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Milk prices worldwide are rising at the fastest rate ever and won't be falling anytime soon because of growing demand in China and Latin America and dwindling government supplies.Click here

markets/currencies

London 05:49 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP have you ever seen the tv programme The Office ? have you seen David the boss? you remind me of him

madrid mm 05:43 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi, new week, new opportunities.

Auckland peat 05:29 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
well spotted on the H+Sh CB from Halifax. But being a relatively small formation the target wouldnt be that far down anyway - maybe 1050 ish. looks like its found some support for now anyway (me long from 1105 - stop below 1040 )

Melbourne Qindex 04:54 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The 3-day cycle cycle reference indicates that the market is working on the barrier at 1.9828 // 1.9890. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below [1.9808] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 1.9672 // 1.9700. On the other hand the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.9902.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9589 - 1.9626 - 1.9644 - 1.9672 // 1.9700* - 1.9737 - 1.9755 - 1.9774* - [1.9811] - 1.9848* - 1.9866 - 1.9885 - 1.9922* // 1.9950 - 1.9977 - 1.9996* - 2.0033 ...

Melbourne Qindex 04:26 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 04:13 GMT : CAD/JPY : The odds are in favor of taking a short position when the market fails to overcome the projected resistant level at 108.81 - 108.91.

Makassar Alimin 04:13 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, do you see cadjpy has finished its corrective move with low 107.20 or are we going to visit your range support 106.xx still? From daily chart I see it bounced well off 20 ema and staying above 13 ema says somewhat bullish although it needs to take out 108.70 from here to remain so..thanks for sharing your view

Mtl JP 04:12 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:47 / that piece is just too ridiculous: 35% of China's total fresh water .. seriously polluted ..

I guess the only redeeming feature is that it is a lifeline to only "tens of millions of people" given that there are some one thousand three hundred million people in China, "tens of millions" is a relatively small amount, in the grand scheme of things.

Somehow it does remind one of the Chines proportionality thingie, and a few ald saws such as the bigger they are the harder they fall or the one about eggs and one basket...

Syd 03:47 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
China's Yangtze River At Risk Of Bank Collapses - Report
BEIJING (AP)--The banks of China's massive Yangtze river, a lifeline for tens of millions of people, are at risk of collapse, a state-run newspaper reported Monday. The China Daily said a recent inspection showed that banks on portions of the river were in danger. According to a Chinese Academy of Sciences report last month, the Yangtze accounts for 35% of China's total fresh water resources. But the report found that more than 370 miles of the river are in critical condition due to pollution, with almost 30% of its major tributaries seriously polluted.

It also showed that the huge reservoir created by the Three Gorges Dam, the world's biggest hydropower project, was seriously polluted by pesticides, fertilizers and sewage.


Halifax CB 03:44 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
I dunno, wash yer hair? I sold it awhile back, but I know there's techs that follow the traditional technigues that might make a profit on it. (it had just broken the neckline)...

Mtl JP 03:41 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
CB, meaning trade implication ? tia

Halifax CB 03:38 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Just in case anyone out there is awake, there's a nice little head & shoulders on the USDCAD atm...

Syd 03:00 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
China says to crack down on stock market foul play
SHANGHAI, May 12 (Reuters) - China's securities regulator said on Saturday it would step up efforts to clamp down on growing insider trading and stock price manipulation, as the country's surging A share market lures a large number of retail investors. "It is worth noting that market irregularities have increased as a large number of investors lacking an awareness of the risks associated with stock trading are entering the market," the statement said. A crash could harm social stability in China and unsettle markets around the world, analysts say.

More than one-10th of China's 90 million-plus stock accounts were opened this year, compared with just 5.2 million opened in all of 2006.
The Shanghai Securities News reported on Saturday that in the first four months of this year alone, 70 billion yuan ($9.1 billion) worth of bank savings in Shanghai had flown into China's stock markets.

In the statement, the CSRC ordered brokerages and fund management firms to pay for efforts to educate investors on investment risks.

It also urged listed companies to release accurate and timely information and vowed to punish investors found of collaborating with executives of listed companies to gain from insider trading.

In a high-profile case, the CSRC plans to punish Zhejiang Hangxiao Steel Structure Co. for illicit information disclosure related to a big overseas contract, which has sent the company's shares soaring, state media have said.

On Thursday, the Shanghai bourse suspended trading in the shares of Kweichow Moutai Co. , a top Chinese liquor maker, following local media reports that the company's general manager, Qiao Hong, has been placed under official investigation, the Xinhua news agency.

Qiao was reportedly summoned by the Communist Party's Guizhou Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection on April 30, Xinhua said, quoting the Beijing Times. ($1 = 7.6766 Yuan) censored

Syd 02:43 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
China inflation pressures remain, though April inflation slows to 3% vs 3.3% in March, says Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp; given "increasing grain prices and energy price rises, the CPI increase may hit 4 per cent in July." Food prices +7.1% in April on-year amid supply shortages. Beijing has said repeatedly it will continue energy price reforms to curb demand, encourage energy efficiency

Syd 02:39 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
China Still Needs More Tightening - CS
[Dow Jones] China still needs more tightening, including raising bank reserve ratio and interest rates, says Credit Suisse's economist Dong Tao, after data showed slight CPI slowdown to 3% in April (vs 3.3% in March). "Regardless of CPI, China needs more tightening. Loans growth is out of control, the stock market is getting out of control," he says, adding inflationary pressures remain. But he declined to say when he expects a rate hike.

Syd 01:36 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Australian Mar Housing Finance +1.3% Vs +1.5% Consensus
Australian Mar Housing Investment Finance -5.0%

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : My daily cycle and 3-day cycle reference indicates that 1.2190 - 1.2205 is a resistant range. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2215 - 1.2220. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2123. The lower barrier of the daily cycle charts is located at 1.2097 // 1.2117.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2039 - 1.2065* - 1.2078 - 1.2097 // 1.2117* - 1.2142 - 1.2155 - 1.2168* - [1.2194] - 1.2220* - 1.2233 - 1.2246 - 1.2272* // 1.2291 - 1.2311 - 1.2324* - 1.2349 ...

Syd 01:22 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Heftier bonuses, special autumn holiday week may help Japanese consumer spending continue to improve; Nikkei reports ruling parties mulling plan to create holiday week in November, similar to May's "Golden Week," to boost tourism industry, encouraging people to take longer vacations, loosen purse strings. Separately, paper reports summer bonuses at large firms to rise 3% for 5th-straight on-year increase. Reports bode well for consumption, which accounts for roughly 55% of Japan's GDP. Japan's overall household spending this year has now risen for 3 straight months, after dropping every month in 2006

Syd 01:04 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Exporters curse dollar’s drag on profits The pound’s strength against the dollar is a boon for British consumers planning luxury mini-breaks to New York. But some UK companies are cursing the toll the exchange rate is taking on their profits and competitiveness.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/49bb3d8e-0187-11dc-8b8c-000b5df10621.html

Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Speulative selling will increase when the market is able to trade below 1.2167.

FW CS 00:50 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai bc
You mentioned a medium term top in the Euro and gold a few weeks back. How much downside are you expecting? I think a move back to 1.29 at least myself.

Syd 00:38 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
China's stock market: Defying economic logic
SHANGHAI: Investors are throwing money into China's share markets and the fever is nowhere more apparent than in the speculative trade involving the mountain of the bourses' money-losing companies.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/275895/1/.html

shanghai bc 00:37 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   

The Nasdaq mania lasted for 4 years even after Sir Alan's warning of "irrational exhuberance"..There is no way to estimate the revolutionary zeal of Shanghai stock crowd..School boys and even monks and nuns have joined the ranks of revolutionary speculators..The Tulip mania,the South Sea mania look like mild mania in comparison..Daily turn over now excceeds that of rest of Asian market combined and even exceeds that of london market..Think of the mania of cultural revolution to estimate the zeal of the Chinese stock crowd..The crowd in mania always believe this time it is different..

Syd 00:10 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
DJ Australian Voter Opinion Poll Puts Labor Well Ahead of Govt
Support for Labor in the poll conducted May 11-13 was put at 57% after distribution of preferences, one percentage point down from the previous poll on April 20-22, with support for the Coalition government rising to 43% from 42% previously.

Syd 00:02 GMT May 14, 2007 Reply   
Japan March current account surplus up 36.9% on year at Y3.317 trillion; increase bigger than 20% rise expected by economists polled by Dow Jones/Nikkei; marks third straight month of increases; surplus gained 4.9% in February, rose 49.8% in January. Increase in surplus due to still-robust exports fueled by weak yen, slowdown in imports, as well as gain in income surplus, say UBS economists

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
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Tue 28 May 2019
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Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
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Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
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