Forex Forum Archive for 05/15/2007

Syd 23:44 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Bolton leaves his successor in a special situation
By Andrew Hill
Last updated: May 15 2007 19:40
The grizzled skipper hangs up his cap and hands the helm to the ship’s youthful new master. But just before leaving the bridge, the old sea-dog grabs the tannoy and makes an announcement to the passengers: “Batten down the hatches! We’re heading into the teeth of a terrible storm! Over and out.” Do you lash yourself to the mast and hope for the best or head for the lifeboats?

Anthony Bolton – who has piloted Fidelity’s £3.3bn Special Situations Fund since 1979 and reeled in an annualised return of more than 20 per cent – could have plotted a more promising first voyage for his successor, Sanjeev Shah, on Monday night. Having anointed Mr Shah, the veteran fund manager warned that the scarcity of cheap stocks “spells danger”. Given the middling performance of Jorma Korhonen since last September, when Mr Bolton picked the little-known Finn to run the other chunk of his fund
UK Fund Manager Bolton Warns On Stocks - FT


Some warnings about exuberance in global stock markts with Anthony Bolton, UK's most feted fund manager, apparently firing off message of doom and gloom as parting shot to industry; Financial Times quotes him as saying, at dinner marking appointment of Sanjeev Shah as his successor to manage Fidelity's flagship Special Situations fund, he's fearful of stock market slump. "We've got a bull market that is four years old now. I find it difficult to find cheap shares. The low risk and high risk (shares) have gone up together. That spells danger. You are seeing mergers and acquisitions tittle tattle that makes me concerned." Views closely watched by financial advisers and rival investment professionals, not least because Bolton has displayed canny ability in past for predicting stock market corrections, FT adds

Syd 22:55 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
NZ 1Q Producer Output Prices -0.2% Vs 4Q; Seen +0.8%
NZ 1Q Producer Input Prices -1.6% Vs 4Q; Consensus +1%

Lahore FM 22:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:49 GMT May 15, 2007
NZD q/q inputs for ppi down 1.6 percent against an expected rise of 0.5 percent.

Syd 22:27 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Forecasts for the kiwi by the end of this year:

* UBS: US67c
* BNZ: US70c
* ANZ: US64c

Gen dk 22:23 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 22:19 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - if it's not proprietary - how do you define a "hot zone". Just curious....

Tallinn viies 22:13 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
as far as last week high on euro contains upmove I would suggest to play range. of course on long side.
if last weekhigh taken out then nxt res at higher bollinger 1,3650. nxt after that at 1,3680-85
first support at 1,3560-65
good luck

USA Zeus 22:09 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Forgot- New USD/CAD block cost = 1.0995

USA Zeus 22:01 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
So far looks like we may repeat another great buy on dip day for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. In that case will add-on to the longs and take profit slices at hot zones. All reactions on EUR/JPY to the downside will see 2-way flows again so will prepare to hammer that one as well.

Syd 21:50 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand policymakers have again raised the possibility of fresh measures to cool the country's overheated housing market, but lack of consensus on the best course of action and likely resistance by the opposition means new tightening steps are unlikely in the near term.

New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard are "eager to have some form of prescriptive solution" in case the property boom continues unabated, a senior policy adviser in a government department, who declined to be named, told Dow Jones Newswires
The policy adviser said the government doesn't want to see the current interest-rate tightening cycle extend into 2008; "they want to have a tool ready to use if housing market inflation persists," he said.

"Dr Bollard has been quite at pains to stress the risks of a housing boom that goes on seemingly without end...apart from the inflation problem there's the huge debt that people are accumulating and that's not healthy for the economy," the adviser said.

At 7.75%, the country's benchmark policy rate is the highest in the developed world after Iceland, a key driver behind the New Zealand dollar. The currency rallied to a post-float peak of US$0.7493 last month, further hobbling the country's export sector. Bollard said last week the bank is considering bringing forward Basel II capital adequacy rules, due to be implemented in January, which effectively increase the cash reserves commercial banks are required to hold. Bollard hopes the stringent rules would help to rein in credit growth and curb demand for housing. censored

HOU rj 21:28 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
This is meant for the newbees
Crosses for example Eur/jpy is trading high
We need to pull up the Monthly chart with enough data in to it
and see
Gl

GVI john 21:03 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

5/15/2007 20:35	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3589	120.26	1.2154	1.9853	1.0981	0.6845	163.42
High	1.361	120.59	1.2204	1.9872	1.1072	0.6855	163.67
Low	1.3527	120.13	1.223	1.9748	1.0966	0.6835	162.66
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3533	120.13	1.2174	1.9790	1.1042	0.6806	161.96
10 day	1.3556	120.13	1.2137	1.9814	1.1038	0.6807	162.32
20 day	1.3584	119.57	1.2081	1.9882	1.1101	0.6799	161.77
50 day	1.3436	118.69	1.2109	1.9682	1.1376	0.6791	158.73
100 day	1.3244	119.35	1.2224	1.9596	1.1535	0.6723	157.39
200 day	1.3042	118.35	1.2275	1.9290	1.1397	0.6725	153.80

GVI john 21:00 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

HOU rj 20:44 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
I am signing off
Good luck to every body

Mtl JP 20:43 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
I told you your pain is not the same as mine: I am an unborn child can not verbally express the pain I experience.

HOU rj 20:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Mtl
Their is no pain beyond the cervical pain

Mtl JP 20:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
df 20:28, fwiw I d probably get out on print abouve 1.9865.

Mtl JP 20:30 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
rj 20:24 / smelling out correctly the prevailing directional bias is only 1/4 the battle. Knowing when to take a loss is another 1/4. I do not expect your criteria for pain to be same as mine.

toronto df 20:28 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP,

Any idea about gbp/usd?, I,ve shorted at 9850...

London NYAM 20:28 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY has completed a 50% retracement from 1.9997 to 1.9645. The down wave was in 5 yet it may merely be the final in a wave c/4 from the 2.0133 high. Since the leg up looks impulsive to the retrace it is looking indeterminate in direction (for me). However for the yen i am more inclined to see imminant signs of exhaustion/uncertainty. We are at the top of a comfortable range that seems to be getting too comfortable. I think signs of second wave tremours are going to shake things up again shortly cary trade or not.

HOU rj 20:24 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Mtl
u seems to be a good trader
why not post u r trades live
WITH A TRADE PLAN ,WHICH MAY BENEFIT A LOT OF NEEWBEES
Like me running from from pst to pillar

HOU rj 20:15 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Mtl

Mtl JP 20:09 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj / the flow is tentative UP above 1.2145. 1.2175ish is currrent block.

HOU rj 20:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Makassar
I need to think myself whether it is for entertaintment or not

HOU rj 20:02 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
makassar
Can I know what is the flow now,
for example
simple pair USD/chf
Now that nearing the end of the day as per my calander

What is the Flow

HOU rj 19:58 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Makassar
I appreciate what u said

Makassar Alimin 19:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 19:47 GMT May 15, 2007

kindly consider posting forex flow related posts instead, if you need help there is always help forum available

Syd 19:53 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Chinese insider fine


Japanese central bank on course for rate riseSome economists support the BoJ’s stance, saying a rise to 0.75 per cent could even be beneficial.

HOU rj 19:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
what is price action

Mtl JP 19:47 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 18:30 / hoping on the Zeusmarine a riski affair while priceaction is below the 1.1005 double bottom.

HOU rj 19:47 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
makasar
I do not think so
It is up to the admn to do,what sholud be done with it
For u r info. I am not a consitant profitable trader as of now

London NYAM 19:44 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hello. returning with a slight back wash of a position. See that some continued yen persistance is occuring. The gbyjpy has now gotten stalled at the 76.4% retrace . Not a healthy sign yet not a confirmation or a resumption of trend. Similarly the stock parkets have proceeded on an intraday scale in making (over the past 5 trading sessions) lower lows and lower highs with 5 wave subsequences. Not quite ready to raise the flag on this one. gdgt

Makassar Alimin 19:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 19:24 GMT May 15, 2007

can you put those in help forum? thank you

Syd 19:28 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Before sentiment starts to be eroded with rate hikes more like it
Home sellers flood market in panic over HIPs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/15/nhips15.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

HOU rj 19:24 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
This is for the newbees
Do not get obligated to anybody, means as far as possible
NO MARGIN even if the situation needs u to get in to this margin business, consider the amount u r tading as if u r own
in the bank

USA Zeus 19:17 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
FWIW- Ccrude oil might be very interesting to keep an eye on tom.

Syd 19:10 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
The selling of low-yield currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen look extremely dangerous at current levels. Similarly, borrowing in yen and Swiss currencies is also very risky given the risk of a sharp adjustment in carry trades.

investica.co.uk.

HOU rj 18:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
This is meant for newbees
Do not Expect anything
Expectations are like Mango Flowers
One Cloud will wipe u away
U may keep u r ears and eyes open
It may take minimum 1000 sreen hrs
Gl/Gt

madrid mm 18:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Now, that'snews...8-)

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real gained, breaking through the 2-per-dollar level for the first time in six years, as a surge in retail sales in March fueled expectations that Latin America's biggest economy is picking up.

NY RP 18:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 18:42 GMT May 15, 2007
Sure. You can have all of them, LOL
Good luck.

Geneva 18:42 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Last minute to buy cheap dollars!

Bangkok bkk 18:34 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
For USD/JPY: Risk for a deeper correction but still looking to buy at lower level.(i.e. 118.xx)

IMHO.

Bangkok bkk 18:30 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
IMHO.... USD/CAD buyer is coming back this week.
I am looking to buy on dips.

Makassar Alimin 17:50 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 17:29 GMT May 15, 2007

yen carry trades have been there for many years, it is just funny how they put it 'could fuel' as if it was just made known

Mtl JP 17:42 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 17:29 / beware of slimy yikyakers:

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT May 14, 2007
john 11:44 - or, in other words, expected FED rate cut later this year priced out. Should allow Japanese to "hike" their rate, if only relative expectation-wise.

The Netherlands Purk 17:30 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:29 GMT May 15, 2007

What, what, did they ban the VODKA?

moscow mike 17:29 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Well, friends, let me say goodbye. I am off for some underground action for the couple of months. Still reachable at email & msgr. Wish everybody a great summer.

GT!

Ldn 17:29 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
BoJ governor flags rate rise
ft.com
Japan’s central bank governor on Thursday made the case for a gradual increase in interest rates, warning that keeping rates low could fuel the so-called yen carry trade and destabilise the country’s economy.

Makassar Alimin 17:27 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on euro short and still running usdchf short, stop brought to entry now

Mtl JP 17:25 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:57, think he migh be joining Paulson watching NBA playoff games ?

The Netherlands Purk 17:09 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Well my shorties in e/u lost.. in the meeanwhile tick tick to the high in e/j again. A higher e/u can lead e/j to new highs.

Sofia mik 17:08 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
maney -money

Sofia mik 17:07 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR, this summer you can't see more japaness tourists with cameras and ful poket maney like years before.
but more japanes cars on the streets.

dc CB 17:07 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX DROPS TO 30 IN MAY (CONSENSUS 33) FROM 33 IN APRIL - Reuters

NAHB says subprime mortgage crisis infected other parts of mortgage market, worsening housing outlook - Reuters

PAR 16:57 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
New French finance minister probably to skip G8 meeting in Germany .

Sofia mik 16:55 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
out eursek 130p

Sofia mik 16:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
long usd /dkk 5.478
out nzd /sek +201p

dc CB 16:38 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell says declares force majeure on Nigeria bonny light crude oil exports - Reuters

Gen dk 16:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 16:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Big 120.00 and 119.75 USDJPY options being defended ahead of the always weak japanese economic data and stock market

USA Zeus 15:56 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
scaling out now a bit more aggressive on buy on dip prank EUR/USD signal for today. Will hold some at b/e along with GBP/USD.

USA Zeus 15:46 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Slicing a little faster now on GBP/USD deceptive prank "buy on dip" idea for today. LMAO

USA Zeus 15:43 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Bought some more USD/CAD 1.0969

GENEVA DS 15:43 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
buy signal now in gbpchf... 241ish.... for medium term players... target 25700 sl 23900... not bad for rr... this is probably even better than long cadchf...

Gen dk 15:29 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai Deepak 15:23 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Fwiw...Golden words by Ed Seykota...

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money

Gen dk 15:19 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 15:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
eurjpy new high.... usdcad new low... perfect match with sp and nasdaq new high.... carry is carrying on... gl

Gen dk 15:10 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 15:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
undeniably, TRL is very good.

USA Zeus 14:59 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
meanwhile starting to slice out on the EUR and GBP buy on dip strikes. May reload on corrections.

USA Zeus 14:57 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:49 GMT May 15, 2007
Just because you think that it should go one way and I prepare for the other does not make it deceptive. Keep your nonsense BS to yourself. Go off at the mouth like Cris and you too will be proven wrong.

Como Perrie 14:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007

At times I myself try some more agressive non-sense trades, but do keep them for myself. You know the old adagio here for which you battled with someone else I don't want to mention, now looks you do the same It seems to those here looking.

Como Perrie 14:49 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007

Do not understand, but if works for you fine to me. Just don't be deceptive and post the reasons if any pls.

USA Zeus 14:49 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD- higher higher LOL

dc CB 14:44 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Xstrata raises LionOre bid, trumping Norilisk offer - WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports Xstrata Tuesday raised its cash offer for Canada's LionOre Mining Intl Ltd. to 25 Canadian dollars (US $22.59) a share, valuing the company at about C$6.2 bln. Xstrata said its new offer provides LionOre shareholders with C$872 mln more cash than Norilsk's offer.

Gen dk 14:39 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 14:36 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:20 GMT May 15, 2007
Adding to GBP/USD longs on pullbacks.


yes- but of course!

hk ab 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
e/j now out of control....

USA Zeus 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:20 GMT May 15, 2007
Yes- However, of greater interest to me is the forward looking weekly chart.
GT :-)

madrid mm 14:31 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
stocks are bullish....It looks like what goes up....keeps going up ! 8-)

Como Perrie 14:20 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   

USA Zeus 14:15 GMT May 15, 2007

did you see the weekly chart ?

USA Zeus 14:15 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:12 GMT May 15, 2007

Plenty more ready. On this forum when it goes up the sky is the limit. When it goes down .85 is coming- LOL

So, the sentiment here is day by day but the plan remains.
GT

hk ab 14:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
zeus, don't forget to reserve some for 1.08xx....

madrid mm 14:08 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:55 GMT May 15, 2007

and it is siesta time in Madrid 8-)

And with the climate change, it will be siesta time in the 4/5th of the world !!!

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Bought a chunk of USD/CAD 1.0979's

NYC 14:02 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
ab, pretty obvious why -- the market is wearing some people down

hk ab 13:55 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
why so quiet?

hk ab 13:41 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
interesting to see how they would interpret the data....
the noise from foreclosure seems suppressed again.

madrid mm 13:40 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:32 GMT May 15, 2007

I really hope so .... 8-)

HK Kevin 13:32 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Following US stock opens, we should see some move in the fx market.

Como Perrie 13:32 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Referring to my previous view on TIC to be lower than forecast is still valid into next months, given the following change in US bonds buying from abroad.

BEIJING -- The central bank said yesterday that the country will not sell large amounts of U.S. dollar-denominated assets to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.

The People's Bank of China also warned of a risk of rising inflation and a rebound in investment as the economy steamed ahead in the first quarter, growing by 11.1 percent year on year.

Authorities have said the country will diversify part of its foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to $1.02 trillion by the end of March and are believed to be invested mainly in dollar bonds.

The central bank said it will mainly address the issue of newly added reserves by widening the foreign currency investment channel and reaffirmed the importance of its U.S. dollar-denominated assets. They will remain an important part of China's outbound investment, the bank said in its monetary policy report for the first quarter, which was published on its website yesterday.

The bank also said it would keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable level.

The bank warned in the report that the country faced the risk of inflation and of a rebound in investment, and that it must prevent the economy from overheating.

In the first quarter, urban fixed asset investment grew by 25.3 percent year on year, 0.9 percentage points faster than in the first two months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose by 2.7 percent year on year, but in March the index grew by 3.3 percent, bypassing the alarm level of 3 percent set by the central bank.

In another development, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced yesterday that the country's current account surplus hit $249.9 billion last year, an increase of 55 percent over the 2005 level of $160.8 billion.

The jump came mainly from the increase in the trade of goods, which reached $217.7 billion, up 62 percent year on year, the foreign exchange regulator said on its website.

The surplus in the country's capital and financial account reached $10 billion, down 84 percent. The SAFE attributed the fall to the strong growth in outbound securities investment.

It gave no figures for last year's overall balance of payments surplus.

madrid mm 13:24 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Net Long Term Capital flows TIC Mar
Actual 67.6B
Consensus 75.0 B
Previous 58.1 B

Syd 13:13 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
U.S. chain store sales rose 2.5% in the first week of May compared with the previous month, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator of national retail sales released Tuesday.

The rise of the index was above the targeted 2.2% increase, according to the report.
The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales in the one-week period rose 2.7% compared with May 2006, above the targeted 2.3% gain.

Redbook said on an unadjusted basis, sales in the week ended May 12 were up 2.7% from the same week in 2006.

madrid mm 13:10 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 62 percent in April from a year earlier and the number of households falling behind on mortgages probably will climb further this year as home prices fall and lending standards rise, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Como Perrie 13:09 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
tic S datas. or the number of financial inflows into the US budget to finance It's record balooning month after month have lowered slightly but this in my opinion does not come yet into surprise to markets o.c. this only unless caribbean-global hedge funds are then hardly swapping and working for the next auctions to come into help. very strange axiom and times we are living. but good we avoided the 29 again.

Monaco Oil man 13:02 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
As long as we're above 663 , upside.

Monaco Oil man 13:00 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Though Gold did bounce healthily today very close to the support zone 663 .

hk ab 13:00 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
thanks very much oilman.
Do you like to see upside more or downside more?

Monaco Oil man 12:55 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
ab,
No if we break 663/660 then 632/6 should be the next bounce area..

Lots of domino's falling.

gl gt

hk ab 12:53 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
thanks oilman, that means 650 should not be the floor.

Como Perrie 12:53 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:47 GMT May 15, 2007

and long gasoline too.. in US might go around 5 into next year or two,

madrid mm 12:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Zzzzzzzzzz.....

Monaco Oil man 12:51 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
ab,
gold
Should stay above 663 to keep the bullish tone.
Going under we get probably a nice long term short signal or at least a short from 663 to 632 which is the next supportive area.

gl

USA Zeus 12:47 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:26 GMT May 15, 2007
Agree. Buying EUR/USD on dips too.

Drive it down if you dare....I'll prop it back up again and higher.
-----------------------------------------------------------


yw! :-)

madrid mm 12:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
this is Logically Ilogical 8-)

RIC fxq 12:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
further to the last - consensus was +0.2 core so it was very much in-line. WGere is the big "surprise"?

Syd 12:44 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
CORRECT: DATA SNAP: US March CPI Rose 0.6%, Not 0.5%

madrid mm 12:43 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:39 GMT May 15, 2007
PAR my man, i left LOGIC a long time ago in this market 8-)

Como Perrie 12:37 GMT May 15, 2007
8-), probablty.

RIC fxq 12:42 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR et al: that "core" cpi # is a major crock of cr*p! Rent up 5% y/y, gasoline +$.15/.25 y/y, food prices up in excess of 3% y/y and inflation is deaD? BULL

USA Zeus 12:40 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Bought USD/CAD 1.0997

PAR 12:39 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Lower US inflation in line with lower US growth . Sounds logic.

hk ab 12:39 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
eur/gbp looks v. strong.

hk ab 12:37 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
oilman, can i have your view on gold and silver? chart looks very sick but some slow accumulation is also seen.

Como Perrie 12:37 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:35 GMT May 15, 2007

with 15 bio less population all gets greener my friend

Syd 12:37 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Overall consumer inflation was up 2.6% from a year ago. The core CPI was up just 2.3% compared to a year ago, down 0.2 percentage point from March and the slowest annual pace since April 2006, when it was also 2.3%.

The figures support the prevailing view among economists that Federal Reserve officials will keep official interest rates unchanged when they meet late next month.

madrid mm 12:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:32 GMT May 15, 2007
what is 15 bio nowaday ...8-) Can you make the earth greener with 15 bio ?

Como Perrie 12:34 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   

Monaco Oil man 12:33 GMT May 15, 2007

well done oilie

Monaco Oil man 12:33 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Morning ,


$/CAD has not held or broken above 1.1155 on the daily , a quick explosive exhaustion spike, and $/CAD retreats.

Support around 1.0938 atm.

Marching still for the target..

Como Perrie 12:32 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
I'll watch TICs in the 60 bios against the 75 of the consensus.

Como Perrie 12:31 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
*US CORE INFLATION HAS RISEN AT 1.9 PCT ANNUALIZED PACE OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 12:23 GMT May 15, 2007
:)))


just wait yet some months that the Central banks revenge of theirs past decades losses ends.

GENEVA DS 12:23 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Como.... but before that, we will all have to drink good italian wine together... all of this forum

GENEVA DS 12:21 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
eventually then big stock rally and of course eurjpy usdjpy and gbp jpy much higher, as they are nicely correlated

Como Perrie 12:20 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article1751509.ece

James Lovelock ---

snip ...
"If you want to get some idea of what much of the Earth might look like in 50 years’ time then, says James Lovelock, get hold of a powerful telescope or log onto Nasa’s Mars website. That arid, empty, lifeless landscape is, he believes, how most of Earth’s equatorial lands will be looking by 2050. A few decades later and that same uninhabitable desert will have extended into Spain, Italy, Australia and much of the southern United States.
“We are on the edge of the greatest die-off humanity has ever seen,” said Lovelock. “We will be lucky if 20% of us survive what is coming. We should be scared stiff.”
... end snip

hk ab 12:19 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
but what's next PAR? with much lower CPI?
dlr/jpy will still not dive much.

PAR 12:16 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Have feeling CPI and core CPI will be much lower than expected .

Global-View Forex Services 12:10 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
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Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 2.4198. The odds are high that the market will tackle the lower barrier of the weekly cycle at 2.3867 // 2.3958*. My daily cycle analysis indicate that the center of the projected series is located at [2.4130] and the lower barrier is expected at 2.4016 // 2.4038.


Daily Cycle : ... 2.3947 - 2.3977* - 2.3993 - 2.4016 // 2.4038* - 2.4069 - 2.4084 - 2.4100* - [2.4130] - 2.4161* - 2.4176 - 2.4191 - 2.4222* // 2.4245 - 2.4268 - 2.4283* - 2.4314 ...

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:37 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
btw - sure an old news but since Alcoa is buying Alcan - this is huge deal and maybe will have additional impact on USDCAD...

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:16 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP //
definately a lesson..

The Netherlands Purk 11:00 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Range loonie: 53 untill now. Pattern resumed down. Last low 11008ish my platty. Lets see if 11060 can be seen again. 10988 can spoil that but beware of NN there shorters. If he has big balloons than bounces of 50-75 will do some serious harm to stops...

CT PT 10:58 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Hello friends,
what kind of CPI number can cause stock market crash & carry trade unwinding?
TIA,
GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 10:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is consolidating in the range of [1.6489] - 1.6527. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the upper barrier of the daily cycle reference at 1.6528* // 1.6538. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below [1.6487].


Daily Cycle : ... 1.6445 - 1.6455* - 1.6460 - 1.6467 // 1.6474* - 1.6484 - 1.6489 - 1.6494* - [1.6504] - 1.6514* - 1.6519 - 1.6524 - 1.6534* // 1.6541 - 1.6548 - 1.6553* - 1.6563 ...

Mtl JP 10:49 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:14, shoulduff = lesson ?

Makassar Alimin 10:45 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:21 GMT May 15, 2007

it is for summer holidays purpose, canadian tourists need strong cad :) oilman must be smiling all the way to his bank, weekly close under last week's close, should open up pathway for his parity

nj jf 10:38 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
crosses arent easy -takes practice.

telaviv dor 10:18 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
TU Bar & TU mm , Toda

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:14 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:09 //
very interesting to watch your posts - last week when you were trading it from the lows 161+ I should have paid more attention to the 2-way risk...

madrid mm 10:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 09:53 GMT May 15, 2007
thxs

telaviv dor 09:46 GMT May 15, 2007
YW

shalom 8-)

MELB fx 09:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD cap 11007 ...

rag bar 09:53 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
telaviv dor 09:46 GMT May 15, 2007
TU mm , How I get to the Fed link ( & sorry for my stupid questions) ?

Shalom dor

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm

Auckland peat 09:49 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
surely someone wants to wack e/y around now that its failed from 163.20 several times! ?
out of USD/CAD long 30 pips ago. was up 2x90 and down 1x50 on that trade. c'est la vie.

telaviv dor 09:46 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
TU mm , How I get to the Fed link ( & sorry for my stupid questions) ?

hk ab 09:41 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
loon strong but metals very weak. Strange enough?

Melbourne Qindex 09:33 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP (Weekly Cycle): The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.6848*. As shown in the weekly cycle projected series the market is now working on the upper barrier at 0.6848 // 0.6867. The center of the daily cycle is located at [0.6834] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.6860* // 0.6866.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.6782 - 0.6791* - 0.6795 - 0.6802 // 0.6808* - 0.6817 - 0.6821 - 0.6825* - [0.6834] - 0.6842* - 0.6847 - 0.6851 - 0.6860* // 0.6866 - 0.6873 - 0.6877* - 0.6885 ...

MLT PA 09:31 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad 1.1185 held and the target is 1.0970 then 1.0945

Mtl JP 09:28 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
loon is bearish below 1.1040, trying to touch 1.1005 for reaction.

hk ab 09:26 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
cad becomes safe heaven? all of a sudden?

hk ab 09:21 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
this cad gets wild. for any reason?

madrid mm 09:18 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
telaviv dor 09:03 GMT May 15, 2007

the best place is the FED

Melbourne Qindex 09:17 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle): The 3-day cycle cycle reference indicates that the market is pulling back from the barrier at 1.9828 // 1.9890 and it is heading towards 1.9725*. The lower limit of the 3-day cycle reference is defined at 1.9643. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below [1.9808] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 1.9683 // 1.9704 and the center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.9788].


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9621 - 1.9649* - 1.9663 - 1.9683 // 1.9704* - 1.9732 - 1.9746 - 1.9760* - [1.9788] - 1.9816* - 1.9829 - 1.9843 - 1.9871* // 1.9892 - 1.9913 - 1.9927* - 1.9955 ...

Melbourne Qindex 09:08 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the supporting range is expected at 0.8156 - 0.8202. The market is going to consolidate between [1.8309] and [0.8319] initially during early period of this week. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8286 // 0.8301. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8269. .


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8241 - 0.8261* - 0.8271 - 0.8286 // 0.8301* - 0.8321 - 0.8330 - 0.8340* - [0.8360] - 0.8380* - 0.8390 - 0.8400 - 0.8420* // 0.8435 - 0.8450 - 0.8460* - 0.8480 ...

Como Perrie 09:03 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Done for the morning. Just watching stocks and bonds into US time.

telaviv dor 09:03 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Pls help : Where I can find interest rates for us$ for the last 7 months. TIA

Como Perrie 09:02 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone Gdp slightly higher than consensus 0.5 out at 0.6

Como Perrie 08:59 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
World Bank's report says Wolfowitz violated ethics

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:56 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:38 //
tnx for the heads up!

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Took most from yesterday cable shorts out around here.

Como Perrie 08:51 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Swiss retail sales rose a real or inflation-adjusted 7.6 pct year-on-year in March, the Swiss Federal Statistics Office said.

Como Perrie 08:46 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
June Bunds extend losses and break below 113.00 level.

Lahore FM 08:38 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:34 GMT May 15, 2007
it looks credible Kapri.morning's action post machinery orders also makes it more so.with very negative numbers jpy rallied after a while.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:34 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY - Daily - I Believe many has spotted the potential of a H&S pattern with Left S (Oct sub 120 highs) - Head 122 high - and now developing the Right S around 120.30/50
- - just an idea to watch..

Como Perrie 08:22 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Cable looks more to look for tomorrow's quarterly report on inflation from BOE, as said yesterday.

Como Perrie 08:15 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Some talks of carry unwinding from russian top financial institutions around.

Como Perrie 08:10 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Also of note today is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to speak about credit derivatives, at the Atlanta Fed's financial markets conference.

Gen dk 08:08 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 08:07 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hjehehehe Albert, your Dutch is getting better whenever Babelfish is improving itself...
The MIB like my QP for this week, you will see e/u under the 135......

AMSTERDAM albert 08:01 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
...PURK..de quantumfysica u bij die Amsterdam supermarkten gebruikt, dont het werk in purky forex..

Como Perrie 08:01 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Cpi consensus is for a 0.3 reading from previous at 0.5 on a monthly basis. Yearly a reading of 2.8 from 3.0 pct previous.

UK Rpi readings at 0.5 from 0.6 mom, 4.5 pct fro 4.8 on a yearly basis. X is seen higher at 3.9 pct from 3.6 pct.

Then we have eurozone gdp seen at 2.9 from 3.3 pct. 0.5 seen on a quarterly basis.

That's all for this morning.

telaviv dor 07:59 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
pls ' need the changes in the interest rates over the last 7 months for the us$ . TIA

The Netherlands Purk 07:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
It seems that the quantum physics of ZEUSTER are very well in place. We will see if the QP’s of Purks will slip into that….
Doubting if the e/j is doing a trip south of more than 250 pips. But if it does think that e/u will follow a bit into the low 134 series.
So I have some shorts in e/u and I will respect tp and so on.
Confidence is the name of the game, the flows will take me where I want to go.
Range is King, and if the range will be 60 today, game is over in e/u and we will see 136+ again.

Melbourne Qindex 07:42 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 120.04. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.61. The center of the daily cycle is located at [120.33] and the lower barrier is expected at 119.46 // 119.63*.


Daily Cycle : ... 118.94 - 119.17* - 119.29 - 119.46 // 119.63* - 119.86 - 119.98 - 120.09* - [120.33] - 120.56* - 120.67 - 120.79 - 121.02* // 121.19 - 121.36 - 121.48* - 121.71 ...

Como Perrie 07:36 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Morning

Melbourne Qindex 07:30 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle): As shown in my daily and 3-day cycle reference 1.3576 is a resistant point, 1.3435 and 1.3465 are supporting points. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily directional indicator of [1.3524] - [1.3548] - [1.3561] - 1.3607. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 1.3494 and the lower limit is expected at 1.3536 // 1.3551. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is weak when it is trading under 1.3494. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the projected supporting level at 1.3407 - 1.3410.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3494 - 1.3513* - 1.3522 - 1.3536 // 1.3551* - 1.3569 - 1.3579 - 1.3588* - [1.3607] - 1.3625* - 1.3635 - 1.3644 - 1.3663* // 1.3677 - 1.3691 - 1.3700* - 1.3719 ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:20 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the resistant range is expected at 1.1184 - 1.1272. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.1249 - 1.1253 and the market has a good potential to test the projected supporting range of 1.0815 - 1.0981. The center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.1045] and the lower barrier is expected at 1.0989 // 1.1000.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0955 - 1.0970* - 1.0978 - 1.0989 // 1.1000* - 1.1015 - 1.1023 - 1.1030* - [1.1045] -1.1060* - 1.1068 - 1.1075 - 1.1090* // 1.1102 - 1.1113 - 1.1120* - 1.1135 ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle): My daily cycle and 3-day cycle reference indicates that 1.2190 - 1.2205 is a resistant range. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2215 - 1.2220. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2123. The lower barrier of the daily cycle charts is located at 1.2101 // 1.2115 and the center of the projected series is located at [1.2172].


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2058 - 1.2077* - 1.2087 - 1.2101 // 1.2115* - 1.2134 - 1.2144 - 1.2153* - [1.2172] -1.2191* - 1.2201 - 1.2210 - 1.2229* // 1.2243 - 1.2257 - 1.2267* - 1.2286 ...

USA Zeus 07:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:03 GMT May 15, 2007

ab san- wish there was more time in the day- sleep these days is a luxury.
For st plays been scooping EUR/USD and GBP/USD on dips. Of course this could always cycle back the otherway but for now it remains intact.
GT! :-)

hk ab 07:03 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
zeus san, you don't need sleeping?
from your tone, you suggest usd selloff?

USA Zeus 06:53 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
June SP 500 down 5.5. Could get real interesting here.

USA Zeus 06:34 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS- Well dip wad. Looks like Zeus still has that Thunderstike capability. Check yourself before you wreck yourself.

USA Zeus 06:26 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Wellington, N.Z. 06:21 GMT May 15, 2007
Agree. Buying EUR/USD on dips too.

Drive it down if you dare....I'll prop it back up again and higher.

MELB fx 06:23 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EURO/JPY cap for the week....16347

madrid mm 06:22 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Japan machinery orders for March at -4.5%m/m, worse than expectation of +1.3%. It came in-5.8%y/y. April-June core machinery orders forecast at -11.8%.

Japan Govt downgrades its assessment on machinery orders, saying the machinery orders remain somewhat weak.

Some rumours that Moody's may upgrade Japan's sovereign rating - unconfirmed (S&P upgraded Japan on Apr23)

MoF Koji Omi says G8 will discuss global economy and activities of hedge fund. No particular emphasis in mind for topic for G8 discussions. (G8 on May 18-19 in Potsdam, Germany)

Economics Minister Hiroko Ota says somewhat concerned at the April-June machinery orders forecast drop of -11.8%q/q. Capex trend remains relatively firm, as can be seen in BoJ tankan.

WSJ: Thomson Corp. could announce as early as today that it has agreed to acquire Reuters Group PLC for about GBP8.7b ($17.24b) in cash and stock, a combination that would unite the second- and third-largest providers of financial news and data, behind Bloomberg.

UK RICS house price balance +28.9 in 3 months to April, its fastest rate this year, up from revised 26.9 in 3 months to March.

World Bank Panel says World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz's handling of his companion promotion violated the terms of his contract, and his involvement represents a conflict of interest.

New York Times: IAEA concluded Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. The inspectors found that Iranian engineers were already using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and were producing fuel suitable for nuclear reactors.

Relatively quiet day, as focus turns to both US and UK CPI due today for any "softish" data that could tilt odds to a Fed rate cut from current Fed Funds of 5.25% and a BoE MPC pause at 5.50%.

Focus remains on the continued speculation of when the "actual and huge" USD/JPY selling for the huge quarterly US Treasury coupons of $20.4bln and redemption of $65.87 due today, May 15 will hit the markets. Market players were cautious ahead of today's go-to-bi Nakane, also on May 15, on any huge selloff and 2-way interest.

USD/JPY rose initially to hit 2 and half month highs of 120.54 from 120.35 after the sharp -4.5% fall in Japan machinery orders, but ran into options related, China, Taiwan, Asian acccounts Japan exporters/ carmakers selling from 120.50-60, capping topside.

It dipped to day lows of 120.31 as Japan trust/lifers sold - some talks for repatriation, and also on PBoC comments on fast CNY rise now, and weighed by rumours of Moody's upgrade of Japan - though no details.

EUR still seen in range, 2 way interest, with talks of European interest and Sovereign interest on both sides - offers at 1.3560-80, stoploss above, and bids at 1.35 lows, though likely to hear Russian bids.

Cable eye CPI after yesterday weak PPI, with GBP/USD, USD/CAD focus on "confirmation" of Thomson-Reuters GBP8.7bln deal. USD/CAD key 1.1000 handle. Some focus on Iran on NYT article on uranium enrichment. Focus on US CPI tonight.

Nikkei -1.01% or 178.08pts at 17,499, weighed by weak machinery data, also lower China stocks, down -1.76% or 71pts below key 4,000 level at 3,975.91. JGBs lower despite good 5-year auction. 10yr yield +0.02% 1.68%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.30/120.54, EUR/USD 1.3536/1.3549, GBP/USD 1.9786/1.9806, USD/CHF 1.2177/1.2191, AUD/USD 0.8318/0.8330, NZD/USD 0.7368/0.7382.

Wellington, N.Z. 06:21 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
The Euro together with the Australasians (Ozzy & Kiwi)
are expected to provide the best trading opportunities
Today.

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts
go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above).

Max McKegg

USA Zeus 06:21 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Drive it down- I'll prop it back up.

USA Zeus 06:20 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Adding to GBP/USD longs on pullbacks.

USA Zeus 06:15 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 06:08 GMT May 15, 2007

:-) Just some strike patterns for me.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:08 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus //
welcome to EURJPY short camp..

madrid mm 06:07 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP might be the play of the day , ie cpi,rpi,....8-)

looking at this euro/usd , the range since yesterday is so tight......I smell a storm brewing with people's impatience.

USA Zeus 06:05 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 05:57 GMT May 15, 2007

Love your humor too! Lost against the Canadian crowd? Plz explain. Have made $ not lost a pip (it's all in the archives regardless of your bias).

Fired beautiful multiple laser strikes on e/j- could care less about Kampo, Jujitsu and Shitoru

madrid mm 06:01 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
today, with other data, we have TIC - Treasury International Capital

Definition
These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities.

Why Do Investors Care?
TIC data have been issued for the past 30 years, but only recently, due to an enormous rise in foreign participation in our markets, have they grabbed the attention of the international financial markets. Although methodologically limited, TIC offers a measure of foreign demand for our debt and assets. Bonds and the dollar are most sensitive to the data, therefore bond and foreign exchange markets are more likely to react to this report than the equity market.

Strong inflows (demand for U.S. securities) are needed to keep downward pressure on interest rates. Strong inflows also underpin the value of the dollar since foreigners must purchase dollars in order to buy our securities. A strong dollar helps to maintain stability in all U.S. financial markets. Since foreign ownership of U.S. equities is comparatively small, the equity market is less concerned about this report. blmbrg

GENEVA DS 05:57 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus.... I like your humour... now you lost against the Canadian crowd.... and now you want to play against Kampo... that makes 2 positions against the main trend... but of course and then again, you might be the only one knowing, that eurjpy will soon fall... wish you best of luck... but personally we will still buy the dips in eurjpy and sell the rally in usdcad... that is how we made the money this year so far... gl and thanks for your contribution

Makassar Alimin 05:54 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
CA_SF 05:50 GMT May 15, 2007

no i dont have any position at the moment with gbpusd, but in any case we close above 1.9840 on daily basis, i will take it as a bullish signal

madrid mm 05:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi,
Another day, another opportunity ! 8-)

Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others. - Groucho Marx

Apply to FX on a regular basis.

BLBMRG currencies Click here

USA Zeus 05:52 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:51 GMT May 15, 2007
Prop up the e/j- I'll push it down.


yw! :-)

CA_SF 05:50 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
alimin:

you dont trade gbp/usd today?

CA_SF 05:50 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
alimin:

you dont trade gbp/usd today?

Syd 05:47 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
China MOF Official:To Push Forward Yuan Exchange-Rate Reform
China Official: CNY Exchange Rate Reform Is In Own Interest

Makassar Alimin 05:38 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
short euro 1.3545 for 1.3438, stop 1.3590

Melbourne Qindex 04:43 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the daily cycle lower limit at 1.5071. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1.4984 which is the lower limit of 3-day cycle reference. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.4846 // 1.4911.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4862 - 1.4885* - 1.4897 - 1.4914 // 1.4932* - 1.4955 - 1.4966 - 1.4978* - [1.5001] - 1.5024* - 1.5036 - 1.5047 - 1.5070* // 1.5088 - 1.5105 - 1.5116* - 1.5140 ...

Wellington, N.Z. 04:13 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
The Euro together with the Australasians (Ozzy & Kiwi)
are expected to provide the best trading opportunities
Today.

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts
go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above).

Max McKegg

Melbourne Qindex 04:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD (Weekly Cycle)
: The daily cycle reference indicates that the market is testing the lower barrier at 1.6224 // 1.6248. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the lower limit at 1.6151. A projected supporting level is located at 1.6062 - 1.6072. The weekly cycle will hoist a negative signal if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the supporting range at 1.5964 - 1.5993.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.5965 - 1.6004* - 1.6023 - 1.6053 // 1.6082* - 1.6121 - 1.6141 - 1.6160* - [1.6199] - 1.6238* - 1.6258 - 1.6278 - 1.6317* // 1.6346 - 1.6375 - 1.6395* - 1.6434 ...

HK RF@ 03:34 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   

Maybe this will give a clue for yen weakness and weak consumer spending in Japan.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/15/asia/AS-GEN-Japan-Severed-Head.php

Teen appears at Japanese police station with severed head, says he killed mother.

TOKYO: A teenage boy holding a severed head appeared at a police station in northern Japan on Tuesday, saying he killed his mother, an official said.

The 17-year-old boy turned up at the police station in Aizu Wakamatsu city in Fukushima prefecture (state) Tuesday morning with the severed head, local police official Hisayoshi Watanabe said.

The boy told police officials that he killed his mother but it was not immediately clear if the head was the mother's, according to Watanabe.

No other details were immediately available, Watanabe said.

Kyodo News agency said that the boy, a high school senior, brought the head in a bag. A body without a head has been found in the boy's apartment, Kyodo said.
censored

Syd 03:29 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
NZ Inquiry Should Target Productivity Growth -ANZ
Recently announced NZ Finance and Expenditure Committee inquiry into monetary policy may provide interest insights but could also divert attention from other "economic ills", in particular weakening productivity growth, says ANZ Bank; adds while RBNZ will admit its policy has not been perfect, ANZ is "suspicious of monetary policy being lined up as the convenient scapegoat" for other imbalances facing economy. Says any government inquiry should instead look at why productivity growth has declined, as this has heightened capacity pressure, kept inflation high despite sub-trend growth; notes labor productivity has more than halved from 2.6% per year over 1990-2000 to 1.2% per year over 2001-2006; magnitude of fall means deterioration can't just be dismissed as being cyclical.

Syd 02:33 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Carry Trade Unwinding Looms Large - censored Markets
[Dow Jones] censored Markets US chief FX analyst Ashraf Laidi warns an unwinding of carry trades looms large, citing possibility of an imminent PBOC interest rate hike, also a possible "market jolt" from key U.S. data due this week. Deems a PBOC hike to be "a high probability event (above 85%) in the next 7 days", given China's April inflation at 3% is above 1-year deposit rate of 2.79%; notes this negative return on savings sending Chinese depositors to equities, which now being driven to levels authorities look to be uncomfortable with. Also says likelihood is "more than 75%" that one of U.S. data releases this week, including April CPI, April housing starts, raises fears of a hard landing.

Makassar Alimin 02:20 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
short usdchf 1.2177 for 1.2080, stop 1.2218

CA_SF 02:13 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Wellington NZ:

Do you know whats the prediction from TRL for tomorrow? especially GBP/usd?

Syd 02:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell in early May, after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year, according to a private sector poll issued Tuesday.

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating fell to 121.6 from 126.6 in April.

Syd 02:06 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Possibility of China raising rates in May is pretty big and chance of further hike around July/August also exists, state-run China Securities Journal reports, cites Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp; comments in line with general expectations of rate hike in near term given overly abundant liquidity, continued fund diversion from bank deposits to stock market. Ha says higher rates could help turn investment activities relatively rational, but "this doesn't mean rate hikes may drag share prices down sharply in one go. A slew of measures need to be taken to ward off a bubble in the stock market and most of the measures shouldn't be monetary policies," he's quoted as saying

Syd 02:03 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
China April Retail Sales +15.5% On Yr Vs +15.3% In March

Gen dk 01:58 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 01:51 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Prop up the e/j- I'll push it down.

Syd 01:39 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
China's securities regulator has banned fund management companies from "speculative trading" and urged them to step up their risk controls over securities investments, the state-run Securities Times reported Tuesday.

The report didn't say what forms of trading the regulator had banned.

Fund management companies should warn investors of risks and encourage them to stick to long-term investments, the newspaper reported the regulator as saying in a notice to the companies.

Fund management companies should also make greater efforts to stop their employees giving stock investment information to their relatives and friends, it said.

hk ab 01:09 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
e/j looks very tad. may short at dead cat bounce.

dc CB 00:35 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
so it goes...

19:10 PVX Provident Energy Trust announces mailing of offer to purchase Capitol Energy Resources (11.67 +0.07)

Provident Energy Trust announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provident Energy Resources, has mailed its takeover bid circular to all shareholders of Capitol Energy Resources in connection with Provident's previously announced offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Capitol for a cash price of $8.16 per share (Canadian dollars). The Offer is open for acceptance until 7:00 p.m. (Calgary time) on June 19, 2007, unless withdrawn or extended.

Syd 00:31 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
JPY/KRW Cross Rate Now At Nearly 10-Year Low At KRW7.6641

Auckland peat 00:29 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Wellington NZ
I thought I recognised your writing style!

Melbourne Qindex 00:15 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : [1.5073] is the center of my monthly cycle projected series. The market momentum is strong if it can trade above 1.5073. The market was rejected around this level yesterday.

RIC fxq 00:12 GMT May 15, 2007 Reply   
Evil looking JPN machine orders - (-4.5% v exp 1.5%).

Not much chance of a BoJ hike with those #'s.