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Forex Forum Archive for 05/16/2007

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Gen dk 23:38 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 23:38 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Did anyone notice a 30pip misspricing of gbpjpy at 238.91 while usdjpy was at 120.70 and USDGBP was at 1.9772? How could that be?

London NYAM 23:27 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
ABHA: A mean reverion play? So you suspect an unwinding ahead? or perhaps position squaring?

London NYAM 23:24 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
my apologies JP wasnt directed at you but at the air...

Mtl JP 23:08 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Alex 23:02 , pa po pobème, *-^

NY Ed 23:03 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS...why on the eur/usd, what's the indicator??
GL

UK Alex 23:02 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sorry JP, wasn't meant to be directed at you. Just continuing the thread.

ABHA FXS 23:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
FOREX TARGET BY End Of Week ...

GBPJPY 235.78
GBPUSD 1.9569
EURUSD 1.3397
USDCHF 1.2364
USDCAD 1.1233
AUDUSD 0.8186
EURJPY 161.70

HAPPY TRADE...

Mtl JP 22:59 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
gents... I ONLY passed my view on why stox w(c)ould be expected to rise in price, and not on where the money (w)could be coming from which is, admittedly, another matter alltogether.

London NYAM 22:50 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
why is this new chinese cash going to feed the US market? why not go locally or in higher return vehicles? Or indeed vehicles less likely to yield a currency adjusted return?

UK Alex 22:48 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 22:42 GMT May 16, 2007
Except for the fact that institutions aren't expected to invest much outside Asia.

Mtl JP 22:42 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CB 20:35 / bingo: stox rise in price when more money supply hits them.

Halifax CB 22:09 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South - did you get them working? (Got your em this morning)

Atlanta South 21:52 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
When time permits, please check em. Tks & gt.

GVI john 21:42 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/16/2007 20:04	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3519	120.75	1.2228	1.9782	1.1036	0.6834	163.24
High	1.361	120.83	1.2248	1.9873	1.1062	0.6857	163.9
Low	1.3504	120.15	1.214	1.9759	1.0971	0.6832	163.12
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3532	120.26	1.2152	1.9765	1.1027	0.6816	162.18
10 day	1.3548	120.20	1.2128	1.9802	1.1028	0.6810	162.38
20 day	1.3581	119.68	1.2081	1.9870	1.1086	0.6803	161.91
50 day	1.3443	118.78	1.2107	1.9692	1.1360	0.6792	158.94
100 day	1.3248	119.37	1.2222	1.9599	1.1529	0.6724	157.47
200 day	1.3046	118.38	1.2274	1.9294	1.1396	0.6726	153.88

GVI john 21:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Halifax CB 20:35 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
The big stock rally isn't too odd when you consider that the rule changes on Friday w/r to Chinese foreign investment could let loose up to 2 trillion USD into various international markets....

Vienna GD 20:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 20:01 ... yes ... from viagra ... perma bull ... you know what happens when the fun is over?! In the worst case the bull will be p*isse*d off ... (;)

dc CB 20:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
US stox on steroids.

NY RP 19:53 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:06 GMT May 16, 2007
Hope all is well.
Is that a guess? or a study?
Thanks
RP

NY Ed 19:40 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
bayern fc...got me, I am long, and WAS excitied...Could be PM announcement...hang in

bayern fc 19:34 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
cable fall anyone know why

PAR 19:26 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Tests between high tech German diesel cars and Japanese hybrids are showing the German diesels are more fuel efficient and more environmentally friendly. This should end the Japanese hybrid fairy tale .

Gen dk 19:19 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 19:17 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Well i decided to trade e/u again. So yesterday i ended up with –50 because i decided to short around 13520ish. Than today i did +70 because i forgot to put t/p.
Strange indeed..
Dont know what caused this move, but yesterday it was an euro move up (almost every pair), and today it was the same but than down. But early in the morning all signs where set for another move up. Important for me is that 13460 zone. And on the other side that 13680 thing. For 2007 I am looking for a range 12860-140 whatever. It can do that with support of the bugger.
I will keep on shorting the e/u and e/j forever, and it will work if i set t/p and s/l right. In e/u that is. I dont do s/l anymore in the rare occasions that i short the bugger. For example, i had orders 16330 and 16350 short. Normally s/l would be around 16385-16390. Well i learned my bit and did not set s/l, guess what the high was....
Now i got out nicely both possies at 16320. I will keep on shorting every zone and more important at the end of the range, so that i can take my 20 pips on ralleys in clogeveing when it does the tick tick to the high thing. Ranges are moving but time is something that MIB use so that guys like me can make their moves.
Loonert: i am not convinced of the move up, it was just on the back of the dollar. But a nice long every clogevening is doing wonders to the account....
Cheers all, the Purk family is going to celebrate hemelvaartsdag and long weekend in Clogland.

Gen dk 19:16 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 19:06 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Despite the fact that japanese current account surplus hit a new record ,japanese Q1 GDP probably turned negative due to shrinking domestic consumption caused by too low domestic interest rates,deteriorating consumer sentiment, rising oil prices and declining real estate prices .

Gen dk 18:56 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 18:18 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
when the day begins with news that Lampert, Buffett and Soros have bought STOX...is there any other way but push the BUY button...for the rest of the herd?

madrid mm 18:03 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nothing in John Whitehead's 37-year career at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. prepared him for the excesses of today's Wall Street. ``I'm appalled at the salaries,'' the retired co-chairman of the securities industry's most profitable firm said in an interview this week. Click here

Gen dk 17:42 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 17:41 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
cadjpy could quickly reverse from here to much higher levels, stop should be under 108.70 for now

USA Zeus 17:37 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 17:28 GMT May 16, 2007
JD- Agree thx for kind words.

On a parting note- Always said that over the long term stocks outperform other asset classes (surprise surprise) Look at gold vs SP 500 from say 1980 to present. Look at 1 yr performance from today as well.

As for gold there are those who think a price slide is a gift. I agree but for different reasons. Just like a rally is a gift. I know many have predicted gold to reach 1000+ by now from a year ago or 2000+ is the next stop etc- who cares?

Predictions rarely if ever come true but the hype is there for sure. Always said that some will spend their money on gold and others (like myself) will simply use gold to make money.

Ok -My plane is on the tarmac waiting for secret recon mission- adios!

CANBERRA JD 17:35 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Kinda like what we were seeing in january with the FED... So many reasons for them not to cut rates.. Too much this not enough that, havent done this yet, bernake didnt shave this morning. Turns out it was a right move :D

PAR 17:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
BOJ can find 60 ways to not raise interest rates in Japan. Too warm weather, too big risk for tsunamis, too high unemployment, too low commodity prices, not enough whales catched etc . Lol.

Geneva 17:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:24 GMT May 16, 2007

BOJ maybe SNB not at all, great economy

CANBERRA JD 17:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
The money has ended for today I think.

Zeus, there are alot of people who try to drag people down around on the net. Best thing to do is to not pay attention to them.

Happy trading.

PAR 17:24 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
SNB dreaming about a strong Swiss economy, BOJ dleaming about stlong Japanese economy. Problem is that swiss and japanese economic data point to continued weakness and that SNB and BOJ lost all credibility .

CANBERRA JD 17:20 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Could be time for that blip up on cable. Not betting on it though.

USA Zeus 17:18 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:08 GMT May 16, 2007
Yes primarily so. a bit different in terms of weightings etc. But as I have said all too many times it is "positioning" in- not scalping etc. But to keep it in check it is massaged into a foundation at hot zones to be sure- and some cream taken when given to keep the process in check.

Those narrow minded ones will never (want to) understand this even though I posted the process repeatedly. All they think is "How can it be so from .14x?" never looking at where the entry points were nor when profits were taken on some pops (profits have never been figured into the b/e) LOL.

A few slices not reported on last major rally but the 100+ pip gains were. Wish I never posted this whole "position" here though because it seems as if the concept and strategy flies over heads and draws bitter feelings from some. Better to simply post laser strike scalps I guess.

Out for recon.
Cheers

Halifax CB 17:15 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Try this, 1 or 2 σ events

Halifax CB 17:13 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 17:07 GMT May 16, 2007
I can understand that - it's why I get lots of time to play with my math models, waiting for 1 or 2 &sigma events....

Halifax CB 17:08 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:03 GMT May 16, 2007
I thought you were off doing spook work....
Geneva - it seems to be primarily a martingale process, but at carefuly chosen levels. Can be very profitable, but you need deep pockets and a high risk tolerance.
(Correct me if I'm wrong Z., as I'm sure you will :)

CANBERRA JD 17:07 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:00 GMT May 16, 2007

A wise trader once said. If you aren't bored whilst trading, You arent doing it properly.

Thus, whilst trading my accounts, I tend to dabble a bit.

USA Zeus 17:03 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 16:59 GMT May 16, 2007

Read the archives

London NYAM 17:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 16:59 GMT May 16, 2007 //
Sure you want to stoke that flame?

madrid mm 17:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:57 GMT May 16, 2007
CANBERRA JD 16:47

Mtl JP , I could not put it in a better way.

CANBERRA JD 16:47
Trading by itself is easy really. You buy. You sell. You sell . You buy....etc
Now comes in the hardest part for a trader - EMOTIONS. 8-)

O

Halifax CB 17:00 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 16:47 GMT May 16, 2007
If yu have a 90% accuracy on your calls, why play around with demo accounts and margin calls?

Geneva 16:59 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:36 GMT May 16, 2007

How your avrage is so low as you start buying at 1.15?

CANBERRA JD 16:59 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:57 GMT May 16, 2007

You took me entirely out of context..

madrid mm 16:57 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
I can see a few interesting speakers tomorrow as well as the data .
All in GMT -
- 6:30 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Fukui to Hold Regular Press Conference
-12:30 USD Former Fed's Greenspan Speaks at Atlanta Business Awards Event
-13:15 USD Fed's Moskow Gives Welcome Remarks at Banking Conference
-13:30 USD Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed Banking Conference

Mtl JP 16:57 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 16:47 / you touched the sensitive spot: emotion about one's own money has a tendency to change chemicals and electrical currents flow in brain. Master the control of those puppies and I suspect you will change from "trader who boasts" to humble one.

Sofia mik 16:55 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:36
be patient my friend 1.2150-1,22 on the radio .

Fairfield JC 16:48 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 16:44 GMT May 16, 2007

That is just a conservative price projection, i am sure it will go alot further than that as well as the Yen will regain alot of it ground as well. But in my opinion I see the USD/JPY and the USD/CHF staying pretty even.

CANBERRA JD 16:47 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Heres a good thought.

Being a trader who boasts above 90% accuracy in positions, I have been playing around with a demo account.

What I decided to do, was use margin call as a stop loss, thus limiting any losses should they come..

I found it to be extremely profitable, however am too scared to go live with it with any real money. Perhaps I would try with a few K.

Has anyone tried this? Or is anyone doing this?

CANBERRA JD 16:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 16:37 GMT May 16, 2007

I want to see the pound go further than that. But I am a little cautious, as the US market has been really hassling the dollar bulls of late. Will need something to swing their bias to get the full move quickly. Then plan the next target. But I want a large correction of the move up from 1.7800.. Would be good to get back into the comfortable prices again.

Fairfield JC 16:37 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 16:33 GMT May 16, 2007

AUS$ .8010 Good call, building as we speak. GBP$ 1.9650. GT

USA Zeus 16:36 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Average suicidal mission USD/CAD cost = 1.0995 as posted in a "position building" trade...

Will be laughing my balls off all the way to the bank- as usual.
Out for covert ops.

hk ab 16:35 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, so gold 630 in your cards?

London NYAM 16:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Gold dumped to 661.00.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:25 GMT /
I got the idea that it's a margin call - I was interested in the comment about building a position ste-by-step (finger->hand ->arm->body)...
anyway I got the DM from your charts and it's good enough for me..

CANBERRA JD 16:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
After getting out of euro and gbp shorts, I would say not to trade for the rest of the day. Market is tangled. Asia will clear the picture up. Ready for some fresh steamy signals tomorrow. My bet is for the aussie to reach 0.8000 end next week, still unsure on the pound, could have a little blip up here. Euro is similar situation.

Makassar Alimin 16:32 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
re carry trade, japan will need to show the real series of action before the euphoria would end otherwise it is just the usual mumbo jumbo which would make carry trades hit back with vengeance

Bangkok bkk 16:32 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD found strong demand just below 1.0990 today as expected. A rally back to at least 1.1160 is on the way. Above 1.1250 can not be rule out though.

------------------------------------------------------

Bangkok bkk 05:19 GMT May 16, 2007

Thanks for your view JP. Usually, I don't agree with Zeus on USD/CAD since he bought USD/CAD @ 1.1400+ (that's suiside)
BUT for this week, the real demand on USD/CAD is coming back for sure.... maybe today or may be on Friday

AS just turn from USD/JPY buyer to USD/CAD buyer below 1.0990 and lower....

------------------------------------------------------------

Bangkok bkk 18:30 GMT May 15, 2007
IMHO.... USD/CAD buyer is coming back this week.
I am looking to buy on dips

USA Zeus 16:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Good timeZ!
tchau

Como Perrie 16:30 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:26 GMT May 16, 2007

Am short cad myself too, but am not printing out agressive trades. Chartwise talking.

USA Zeus 16:29 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Just like my neighbor and tribal leader says-

Mumbai Deepak 15:23 GMT May 15, 2007
Fwiw...Golden words by Ed Seykota...

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money

Halifax CB 16:29 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Most of the euro blow-out happend in 5 1-minute segments (I don't have finer resolution than that) - or about 60% of the move. Personally, I think it's a god place to start looking for longs (it only touched the 2-sided 1 deviation mark on the dailies). It would take about another 100p down to break the daily trend...

USA Zeus 16:27 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:17 GMT May 15, 2007
FWIW- Crude oil might be very interesting to keep an eye on tom.

USA Zeus 16:26 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Could not stay away-

Well Homo Perrie- Just took +65 on USD/CAD....

Como Perrie 14:52 GMT May 15, 2007
USA Zeus 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007

At times I myself try some more agressive non-sense trades, but do keep them for myself. You know the old adagio here for which you battled with someone else I don't want to mention, now looks you do the same It seems to those here looking.

Como Perrie 14:49 GMT May 15, 2007
USA Zeus 14:35 GMT May 15, 2007

Do not understand, but if works for you fine to me. Just don't be deceptive and post the reasons if any pls.

___________________________________________________
Laughing my balls off!

Gen dk 16:26 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:25 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:33 GMT //
hey - glad to hear from you!!
btw - I started studying and using DM indicator a couple of weeks ago - and it was giving very good signs!!

Como Perrie 16:21 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Thks ... so far the xxx/jpy were sold impressively back around to monday levels. Let's see this Japanese gdp first reading early Tokyo.

GVI Jay 16:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, it was a combination of factors. The Japanese trade minsiter also said that the economy was not strong enough to raise rates at this time, which is jpy bearish. See below from GVI:

GVI john 15:39 GMT May 16, 2007
Hearing CITIFX blowing out of their EUR/USD longs after 1.3555-65 did not hold. Also selling vs. their 1.3500 Call maturing tomorrow.

GVI Jay 15:34 GMT May 16, 2007
RTRS Alert:

Dealers are saying large orders to sell eur vs usd and jpy went through at 11am fix. eurusd stops triggered below 1.3565.

London NYAM 16:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
238.55-60

London NYAM 16:13 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY trend line and Fib cluster support around 237.55-60.

London NYAM 16:10 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:08 GMT May 16, 2007
And consequently carry trade risk. FT article today on Bond volumes interesting potential regarding the possibility of declining momentum and positioning for the 'great play.'

Como Perrie 16:08 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Actually what moved markets approx less than one hour ago was Japan's trade minister saying rates will go to level that dilutes carry trade impact

CANBERRA JD 16:05 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Tomorrow is going to be a fun day...

Parijs Van Java Kwang 15:58 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Ct - Cris
hallo Cris how are you.
my chart the Cable show to downward to target 1.9657 (50 %) fibo Retacement from 2.0131 to 1.9184. how about you see.

UK Alex 15:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Ian Shepherdson on housing:
"We expect the fall in permits to be reflected in starts in due course," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "The rate of decline is slowing, but the bottom is not yet in sight."

melbourne DC 15:42 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
GVI jay 1534gmt (GVI)
thx Jay .. that makes most sense for what happened to euro pairs, as it seems in fact jap trade min said economy not strong enuf for hike (which should support eurjpy rather than seeing it drop).

CANBERRA JD 15:38 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Well, my belief of alot of traders is, "Because the trend was up for almost a year, it must remain up forever"...

Maybe im just in a bad mood, even though heavily in profit today..

UK Alex 15:34 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 15:25 GMT May 16, 2007
Actually, he was sounding quite hawkish. NZD/JPY flows are pulling the yen crosses lower.

RIC fxq 15:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 15:28

so folks are going to believe what they want to believe ... or their "book" tells them they want to believe

Hong Kong Ahe 15:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:39 GMT - Sorry to hear that. Preserve Capital is the top priority. For indicator, I recommend you to read "Directional movement" which contains 2 curves of DMI. You will discover something to help your decision when it spreads and closes like a pair of scissors. Good luck friend.

Gen dk 15:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CANBERRA JD 15:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Why is there still talk of recession in the US.... Evaluate the data, and look at the data trends.

lkwd jj 15:25 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:21 GMT May 16, 2007
where can i find out what he said?

UK Alex 15:21 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 15:19 GMT May 16, 2007
Axel Weber

Vienna GD 15:20 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:13 ... forgot to add: and i'm 100% in your boat ... already nicely gathering chips!

lkwd jj 15:19 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
what just happened? cable dropped and chf flew. any news

Lahore FM 15:13 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 15:10 GMT May 16, 2007
always welcome!

Gen dk 15:12 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Vienna GD 15:10 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:54 .. just came back from work - and the first thing i noticed was see exactly what you posted!

Halifax CB 15:09 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:11 GMT May 16, 2007
Gosh, they really want this 121 usd/yen, don t they ? and beyond !!!

I can't see that Japan has much choice. There's recession looming in the States, while their own economy seems to be in the dumps. So they have to continue huilding markets in China, and the only way to do that is to lower their ccy...

London NYAM 15:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
US Markets sharply back to breakeven.

Lahore FM 14:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:43 GMT May 16, 2007
what has been started with audjpy may just be the humble beginings of a larger commodity/jpy unwind.next likely candidiate is nzdjpy and in the end cadjpy shall do the thing imho.

melbourne DC 14:49 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg John Berry ... inflation easing won;t see fed easing as fed still expecting to see economy pickup.

London NYAM 14:47 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Drowning GBPJPY that is.

London NYAM 14:46 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Finally, set stop loss on drowning GBP/USD position set above record highs. If this is a breakdown, it has yet to follow through on a run. Im glad to have booked on what I saw/see as the first leg and would add to the position here if i had that capability. For now that melancholic satisfaction of accepting the loss as its 'out there' now. This USDJPY I find somewhat confounding. Cable is cable.

dc CB 14:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:11 GMT May 16, 2007
Gosh, they really want this 121 usd/yen, don t they

buying Yen against the $ equals buying a put on the US Stock indexes. imho.

Global-View 14:36 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 14:28 GMT May 16, 2007 -

Send us an EMAIL

madrid mm 14:35 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 14:28 GMT May 16, 2007

never heard of "censored" platform... 8-)

IMHO you should contact Jay and his team from GVI. I am sure they will be able to help you.

madrid mm 14:34 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:21 GMT May 16, 2007

thx Lahore.

UK Alex 14:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:25 GMT May 16, 2007
Which fund and which market? TIA

hk ab 14:30 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
thanks jf, that means if aud stops, that deal will probably be over.

CANBERRA JD 14:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
GRrrr, censord the broker.. Nevermind..

CANBERRA JD 14:28 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyone trading at censored? if so can anyone give me some feedback, clients are moving over there. Don't really like the platform, but spread etc is good.

Monaco Oil man 14:25 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:09 GMT May 16, 2007

The fisher man was getting a call...(Margin call)..

nj jf 14:22 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
im not in that mkt anymore
im with bc its prob a physical deal and in response aud gets unwound because of it.

Lahore FM 14:21 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:15 GMT May 16, 2007
very true!!!

hk ab 14:20 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
jf, did you hear the gold selling from IMF too/ is it real?

madrid mm 14:15 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:09 GMT May 16, 2007

Strangely enough, sometimes , waiting is not a waste of time !!!

madrid mm 14:11 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Gosh, they really want this 121 usd/yen, don t they ? and beyond !!!

Are Buffett and Kampo joining forces ? lol

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:09 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:52 //
on crosses - looking at the chart patterns - they are really strange - nothing that can be seen in books on patterns... or maybe I still have to learn more to spot the tendencies (trends / ranges / reversals) in the making...
because it's natural for a specualtor to want to enter before the move..
--however timing is important so one doesn't enter too early..

I am really interested what Oil Man meant with his post about the fisherman getting a call!

madrid mm 13:48 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
at last we have some major moves on the FX market. Phewwwww 8-) Might need a siesta now ....

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:39 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:52 //
well I turned a 200pip profit in a margined out trade - but new lesson is learned:
- stayed too much into this trade /
- didn't exit at a good profit
- technically I was trying to convince myself that indicators and candles are wrong... NO!

madrid mm 13:23 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
just a friendly reminder -
Some Qualities for trading :
Positive Attitude
Discipline,
Control,
Containing Ego

8-)

madrid mm 13:22 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
metals are my next target to learn how to trade them 8-)

hk ab 13:16 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
eur metals are all tied up.

CANBERRA JD 13:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Am short cable, extremely tight stop. Cmon IP do me proud.

hk ab 13:04 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
RP//true, my furtherest study is only weeklies....

NY RP 13:01 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:54 GMT May 16, 2007
If this were last year or the year before I would be a bit concerned. Any sale of gold in size this year has been absorbed with ease. In a few instances gold actually moved up where it has been hit rather hard in the past. These actions suggest the east is more interested in physical then others. Of course the IMF could hit the market and take it down a bit, but you would have to agree that the market dynamics has changed. There are players on the long side that were not so present or interested a while back. We will see, but my feeling is this is another ploy to keep gold down. Keep an eye on the monthlies and even the monthly closes. The bigger picture is upon us. It will not be easy of one is a day trader. GL

hk ab 12:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
RP//aren't you wary about IMF gold sale news? though it could be sell the rumour buy the fact. GT.
I have some reservation on the blastof 700 but 710-715 plausible then range a bit more before the marching to sky during Sept.....

GT and GL , views are welcomed.

hk ab 12:47 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR, fully agree, now the e/j has nothing to stop it....

PAR 12:43 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Have impression Japanese GDP data have been leaked and are much worse than market expects .

GVI john 12:27 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Bangkok bkk 12:16 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 05:34 GMT May 16, 2007
Bangkok bkk 05:19 GMT May 16, 2007

if that is the case, expecting cadjpy to be biggest mover

---------------------------------------------------------

Alimin// Maybe or maybe not for CAD/JPY because USD/JPY still bullish and a delayed correction is possible too.

I don't know anything about CAD/JPY and will not bet on this pair. I tend to invest in the KNOWN before the UNKNOWN.

GL. & GT.

London NYAM 12:11 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Loooks like a spike, kinda smells like a spike in USDJPY. Think there is a little too much positioning for 121.00 going on.

Monaco Oil man 12:06 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP could be toppish here 6850, unless it breaks 6888.

NY RP 12:06 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 10:41 GMT May 16, 2007
My thoughts are on gold are the same. We are in chop mode and currenlty building a base for the next leg up. First traget area is $750 then $850 to $880. I believe the first move is about to happen at anytime. Looking for the low to be in on this chop this week or next at the latest. From there the 700 protection zone will be taken out. Sit back and enjoy the show becuase we have front row seats. GL

madrid mm 12:02 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 11:54 GMT May 16, 2007

A very nice figure of speech to denote the similarity !!!!! 8-)

Makassar Alimin 11:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
stops from long position established this week must be building up under usdcad's last year low, weekly close under will trigger the domino effect

nj jf 11:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman- a well capitalised trader can take advantage of your advice.

Monaco Oil man 11:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
From this point on , we could image adding to losses as being (from the swimmer to trader's perspective):

I arrive at the beach .
I place a foot, I found a piranha.
I place a leg , i found a shark
I placed my body , i found a crocodile..
And soon i got a call.

Gen dk 11:54 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CANBERRA JD 11:52 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
censored i exited my eur/usd short too early :P

Bodrum OEE 11:51 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
JPY crosses may be subject to correction. It is possible that wise money has been positioning. Rest is to your kind consideration (that should take into account the fact that I have a flawed judgement almost at all times). Kind regards.

Monaco Oil man 11:50 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 11:09 GMT May 16, 2007
you can trade your way out of highs or lows, but cutting your posn at a high or low hurts your confidence and makes the next initiation harder... that can hurt

---

When you jump in the sea , or just go to regular swimming , you don't jump in the water without first placing a foot then 2 , checking the temps , no shark ..Everything is fine, 2 legs , then body , then swim..
A trader should built his positions.
A good swimmer could make a good trader.

Makassar Alimin 11:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007

i like your cadjpy target level, cheers, been in bullish camp since 108.70 was taken again...earning interest each day as well, nice one!

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is working on the upper barrier of the daily cycle reference at 120.29 // 120.52.


Daily Cycle Reference : ... 117.58 - 117.88* - 118.04 - 118.26 // 118.49* - 118.79 - 118.94 - 119.09* - [119.39] - 119.69* - 119.84 - 119.99 - 120.29* // 120.52 - 120.74 - 120.89* - 121.19 ...

nj jf 11:09 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
you can trade your way out of highs or lows, but cutting your posn at a high or low hurts your confidence and makes the next initiation harder... that can hurt

nj jf 11:08 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
3 types of traders

early to market - runs risk of stopped at high or low before move starts.
on time - have distinct ability to not overtrade and initiate at highs and lows
late traders - those who chase markets sell lows or buy highs consistently.

its better to have a little patience and not be too early.

Monaco Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Wouldn't be surprised to see

170 EURJPY
CADJPY 115
122 $/Y
1.37 E$
1.06 $CAD

Next following weeks gl..

Mtl JP 11:02 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:52 / ..."that is my biggest weakness as a trader .. patience. its never good to be thinking to far ahead of the market as that makes your stop vulnerable."...

seems contradictory to me or I mis-understand.

Monaco Oil man 11:00 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY :

Signals all pointing for further and sharp move to the upside in all time frames.

Only a move sub 158 would interfere with present bullish outlook...

Plovdiv Gotin 10:57 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Kaunas DP 09:39 GMT May 16, 2007
from 163.8x till todays JAP data eur/jpy is falling knife - IMHO
Agree but if R 163.87 hold and S 163.67not hold.

Monaco Oil man 10:56 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
$/Y all time frames are synchronized for prices moving higher yet.

nj jf 10:52 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:26 GMT May 16, 2007
its a matter and bullish vs bearish patterns, not so easy to look at the chart, fib. no's mean nthg in crosses, you would be best served with looking at the actual pattern's themselves.. what numbers are bullish and what are bearish. I dont have it perfect myself after giving up my nice long too quickly yesterday at this time- that is my biggest weakness as a trader .. patience. its never good to be thinking to far ahead of the market as that makes your stop vulnerable. today I have very strong thought on this market but I know to wait and not be too early. gl

Mtl JP 10:50 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
milano japkiller 09:52, why fight when u can join them ?

Jerusalem ML 10:43 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Yen to test 121 against dollar i think
Gold to go below 650 before resuming uptrend.
G/L

hong kong seek 10:41 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
NY RP-- do u expect gold may reach 750 before summer holidays ??gl and gt

Melbourne Qindex 10:17 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : A projected resistant point is positioning at 109.70. The pattern of my weekly cycle charts suggest that a pullback is imminent.

NY RP 10:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
milano 09:52 GMT May 16, 2007
A bit harsh wouldnt you say. Because of your positions (notice I said yours, meaning you pulled the trigger) you have otheres look at you with less respect becuase of what name is referring to. We have all been there. We have all lost and had harsh feelings. But that is trading. Try trading on less leverage. Sometimes its more about wining then making money. Sometimes. GL

Vienna GD 10:07 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:51 GMT May 16, 2007
ECB s Quaden says yen weakness " not normal "as Japan is running large external surplusses. He forgets that Japanese citizens are exporting all their savings .

Right and Wrong - wall street gangster ala GS are fooling the whole world - they want all the CBs to rise rates and BOJ not to rise rates, what fuels more inflation due to more liquidity. And those idiots of CBers go on and hike and hike and da wall street gangsters laughing all the way to da bank. In other words the more ECB and other CBs hike the more they fuel in fact (carry trade) inflation and support profits of da wall street gansters. It's a rigged game and it will continue as long as there are fools available to be played with.

Gen dk 10:02 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 09:57 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Projected resistant points are positioning at 100.56 and 100.96. Speculative selling pressure may increase if the market is trading below 99.86.

PAR 09:51 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
ECB s Quaden says yen weakness " not normal "as Japan is running large external surplusses. He forgets that Japanese citizens are exporting all their savings .

Melbourne Qindex 09:45 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : A projected resistant point is positioning at 100.96. Speculative selling pressure may increase if the market is trading below 99.86 marks.

melbourne DC 09:42 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 09:06 GMT May 16, 2007
hi GD . not the first time n hopefully many more to come . all the best.

madrid mm 09:41 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
off to the swimming pool

madrid mm 09:39 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
YEN not only needs fundamental and tehnical analysis but also -some vodoo knowledge
-black magic practice
-a direct line to KAMPO
-attention to PAR analysis
-and a pinch of witch savoir faire
8-)

Kaunas DP 09:39 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
from 163.8x till todays JAP data eur/jpy is falling knife - IMHO

madrid mm 09:32 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:29 GMT May 16, 2007

I have no idea, but i always remind myself day after day -
"expect the unexpected."

8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:29 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:27 :)
at least to 164-165 and beyond.. ^

madrid mm 09:29 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
It does not matter the way it goes as a trader. You just need to be prepared. 8-) NEVER FIGHT THE MARKET IMHO.


Now on this YEn... Rumor has it that the ZIMBABWEAN CB is acting on behalf of KAMPO !! lol

madrid mm 09:27 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EURO/YEN to infinity and beyond 8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:26 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
prague mark 09:11 //
I have asked myself the very same question many times before getting margined out in GBPJPY and EURJPY (the latter yesterday as a fresh example)

milano jjap 09:25 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
prague mark 09:11 GMT May 16, 2007
when this f***ing usd/jpy will stop pimping above 120 ?

maybie they need another tsunami or earthquake that will make the isle in 2 or much better another enolagay

this is a currency to use for playing monopoly

Haifa ac 09:24 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
prague mark 09:11 GMT May 16,//

When the LAST BRAVE SHORT GIVES UP!

prague mark 09:11 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
when this f***ing usd/jpy will stop pimping above 120 ?

prague mark 09:11 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
when this f***ing usd/jpy will stop pimping above 120 ?

Vienna GD 09:06 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 08:44 ... eventually bc is it ... that analyst!
It's not the first time we hear that somebody is quoting bc.

melbourne DC 08:46 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
perhaps shouldn't be too surprised GVI is one of the forum they are monitoring , along with other news wire. good stuff .

melbourne DC 08:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:19gmt (GVI)
ni hao .. a live forex commentary service is quoting your comment re gold .. calling you 'some chinese analyst' :)))

Syd 08:30 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Spain risks crisis over vanishing reserves

Spain's foreign reserves have plummeted to wafer-thin levels, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust - despite membership of the eurozone.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml

Gen dk 08:10 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 08:00 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle frequency chart the market is easier to move between 1.3494 - 1.3602. The center of the 3-day cycle reference is [1.3615]. The lower barrier is located at 1.3503 // 1.3525* and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.3705* // 1.3728. The mid-point reference of the daily cycle is [1.3581] and the upper barrier is located at 1.3621* // 1.3631.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3500 - 1.3514* - 1.3520 - 1.3530 // 1.3540* - 1.3554 - 1.3561 - 1.3567* - [1.3581] - 1.3594* - 1.3601 - 1.3607 - 1.3621* // 1.3631 - 1.3641 - 1.3648* - 1.3661 ...

Syd 07:45 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Inflation Report "Could Be Dovish" Lloyds TSB
The Bank of England quarterly report on inflation trends (0930 GMT) could be more dovish than the market expects, says Lloyds TSB economist Kenneth Broux. "The market view is that the report will be hawkish, suggesting that inflation only hits the 2.0% target based on market assumptions of interest rates, which embody a rise to 5.75%. We think the report could be more dovish than this, with inflation falling sharply in the second half of the year and hitting 2.0% in two years on unchanged rates

Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart suggests that the market is easier to move between 1.3494 - 1.3602.

Syd 07:43 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
The Australian dollar edged lower Wednesday after data showed wages growing at a more sedate pace than expected in the first quarter, reducing the chances of an interest rate hike.

Wages rose a seasonally-adjusted 1% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

The result fell short of an expected rise of 1.3% and prompted markets to downgrade the threat of a further rise in interest rates in 2007.

The annual pace of wages growth was 4.1%, a surprisingly benign outcome given that labor market conditions are the tightest in 32 years.

Government bond prices strengthened through the session as some economists pushed out the horizon for another rate hike into 2008.
Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank, said the wages report has "tempered some of the pressure on the RBA after a recent string of strong numbers."

The market looks to have become a little long, but good support is expected on dips with initial support at US$0.8300, Morriss added.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:43 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Tonbridge AL 07:24 //
hello - is this close to AB-CD formation (possible reversal implying)
EURJPY is trending nicely - I got stopped - so another lesson learned... it gave enough good signals it was on its way up..

NY tim 07:36 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, what you see for USD/JPY as long as its very slow for the past several days - TIA

PAR 07:27 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
France Noyer sees Euro Zone growth moving closer to 3 % .

PAR 07:05 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Apparently Kampo got some inside info that Japanese Q1 GDP will be much weaker than expected , could show negative growth ;

madrid mm 06:58 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR
8-). is there such a Zimbabwean car ?

PAR 06:50 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Only two currencies which consistently depreciate against the $ this year are Japanese yen and Zimbabwean dollar . Zimbabwean dollar because infllation is too high and Japanese yen because inflation is too low . Maybe BOJ could ask some advise from Zimbabwean central bank to help Japan out its deflationary crisis . Japanese economy is like a Japanes car , they tell you it is very good while it actually is rather poor

AMS MAXXIM 06:31 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
swifft currency windfromage, where should i pincher?

madrid mm 06:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Premier Wen Jaibao says China is allowing market forces to play a greater role in FX markets. China faces problems of excess liquidity and FX reserves are too high. China is stoking its domestic demand and boosting financial reforms and improving its financial sector

NY Fed President Timothy Geithner says monetary policy cannot do much pre-emptively to correct financial asset bubbles. Monetary Policy could only reduce that risk by adopting policy to ensure stable growth and low inflation.

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig says he sees economy to strengthen and inflation may recede, economy to grow above 2% over the course of the year and higher growth in 2008. Housing market remains risk to economy. Future policy moves are data- dependent. Case can be made for either rate hikes or cuts. Needs to balance US budget over time. Still needs lots of discussion before Fed adopts inflation target.

ECB Christian Noyer says benign conditions on financial markets can be reversed. Imbalances starting to build up despite some signs of cooling. Inflation has stayed broadly in line with ECB price stability goal over last few years and inflation expectations have been remarkably stable.

Bloomberg Fed Watcher John Berry: Fed rate cut is possible if inflation keep easing.

WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: Fmr Fed Alan Greenspan has signed up Allianz AG's Pacific Investment Management Co. as his first client since leaving as chairman of the Fed. Among the predictions: World interest rates are headed higher in the next few years.

NZ Q1 PPI inputs -1.6%q/q vs market exp +0.2%. Q1 PPI outputs -0.2%q/q vs exp +0.2%.

Australia Westpac-MI consumer confidence index hops to record high of 123.9, highest level since the survey started in 1975.

Australia wage price index for Q1 - coming in at "only" 1.0%q/q versus market expectation of 1.3%. Pay rates at 4.1%y/y, vs poll of 4.4%.

Japan rev March Industrial output -0.3%m/m from -0.6% previously.

Range bound market, with USD remaining under pressure after the weak CPI.

JPY under pressure s well on fresh carry trades, Cross/JPY demand, and talks of Japanese custodian banks buying, indicating all the US Treasury coupons linked USD/JPY sales have been completed.

Still talks of good Japanese exporters/ carmakers/ Asian, China, Taiwan and options Gamma related offers above 120.50-60 capping topside, while bids are placed around 120 lows. EUR/JPY remains bids, but off all time highs of 163.67 seen on Tuesday.

AUD rose to day high of 0.8340 on strong Westpac index, but dipped to day lows of 0.8310 on softer wage price index. Some focus on Mon's IMF comments on 400tonne gold sales. Good bids still holding downside at 0.8300-10.

NZD dipped after softer PPI, but downside still seeing real money, local demand 0.7350-70 level.EUR edging back up above 1.36 handle, with real money, Sovereign, East Europeans bids still at 1.3570-80, offers coming in at 1.36, while Cable under pressure after soft CPI - eye BoE QIR today.

Nikkei little changed +7.92pts at 17,520.90 JGBs little changed ahead of GDP, 10-yr yield -0.005% at 1.670%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.17/120.35, EUR/USD 1.3589/1.3603, GBP/USD 1.9846/1.9868, USD/CHF 1.2143/1.2155, AUD/USD 0.8310/0.8340, NZD/USD 0.7370/0.7395.

AMS MAXXIM 06:13 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:00 GMT May 16, 2007
goodmedicgiant

madrid mm 06:10 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Global foreign exchange volumes surged by 17 per cent from 2005 to 2006 amid an explosion in interest from fund managers and retail investors according to new research from Greenwich Associates. FT.com

The Netherlands Purk 06:06 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Good Luck ZEUS, snif snif, snob, wont be the same without you, you giving the calls others bite ya, etc etc.

Farewell, let all my realtives ride with ya (Luke, pa, jr and many others...)

USA Zeus 06:00 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Friends (and others)- So now I leave for some recon black ops underground secretive missions. Great to know many of you here. Best of luck.

USA Zeus 05:57 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Meanwhile buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD on dips seems to have been the right call for yesterday and today for some odd reason- LMAO!

USA Zeus 05:55 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Could offer 100 strike patterns with amazing success here but then show 1 "position" with disclaimers and extensive explanation as to process and all the know it all- but do nothing traders want to provoke.
Bring it on.

madrid mm 05:50 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 8-)

Markets will take a very close look at housing starts and permits for April, the beginning of the building season.

EURO/Yen to 170 this year ? Kampo on fire !

USA Zeus 05:49 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Yes I am out to commit suicide with USD/CAD. LMAO!
Should have never posted the strategy since no one seems to understand anything but their own selective small minded thoughts.

Ok looks like EUR/USD and GBP/USD are taking off as the 2-day trade treat.

Makassar Alimin 05:34 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 05:19 GMT May 16, 2007

if that is the case, expecting cadjpy to be biggest mover

Ldn 05:29 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 05:14 GMT Greenspan will now talk rate cuts if thats the case

Bangkok bkk 05:19 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:47 GMT May 15, 2007
Bangkok bkk 18:30 / hoping on the Zeusmarine a riski affair while priceaction is below the 1.1005 double bottom.

--------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for your view JP. Usually, I don't agree with Zeus on USD/CAD since he bought USD/CAD @ 1.1400+ (that's suiside)
BUT for this week, the real demand on USD/CAD is coming back for sure.... maybe today or may be on Friday

AS just turn from USD/JPY buyer to USD/CAD buyer below 1.0990 and lower....

We might see USD/JPY correction soon but this pair still a buy on dips mode.

IMHO.

madrid mm 05:14 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman who recently said the U.S. economy may stagnate, will advise the world's biggest bond fund in his first role since leaving his position overseeing monetary policy.

madrid mm 05:00 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi,

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- China's Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to loosen controls on the exchange rate and take steps to curb a record trade surplus, a week before a summit in the U.S. to discuss ways to reduce imbalances. Click here

Sofia mik 03:25 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
it seems us$ gain vs exotic currencies

Syd 03:09 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Slow Australia Wages Growth Eases Rates Pressure

News of a surge in employment in April and strong retail sales growth in the first quarter also had some market participants warning that the RBA would be forced to hike sooner rather than later.

That speculation has now been killed off.

"It's hard to argue that strong growth and low unemployment require a restraining hand with inflation and wage outcomes as low as they have been," said Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS.

The modest pace of wages growth will be greeted with open arms in Canberra, with the center-right coalition government trailing badly in national opinion polls and facing an election before the end of the year.

A rate hike ahead of the election would further dent the coalition's reelection hopes and its claim to be a superior manager of the economy.

Kieran Davies, chief economist at ABN AMRO, said that it is possible to extract from the first quarter wages data that the pace of pay increases has slowed.

If the distortion caused by a "bunching" of base wage increases in the first quarter is extracted from the report, then underlying wages growth has weakened, he said.

It raises questions about the RBA's warnings about the inflationary link between the tightening job market and capacity constraints on the economy, Davies said.

Warnings about skill shortages in the labor market may be exaggerated and the RBA may have to reexamine its line of arguments, Davies added.



Halifax CB 02:46 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Thx Isky

Singapore Isky 02:44 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Might want to pay some attention to news that IMF to sell 400 tonnes of their gold reserves in next few days

Halifax CB 02:40 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:17 GMT May 16, 2007
Okey-dokey :) ....sounds like me, I'm waiting for this blue line to cross either this yellow line or that oranged dashed line....
But except for a little Aud/USD which is as thrilling as paint drying contests (and there I'm waiting for the bars to cross back over the blue line or the dashed yellow line - wanna see a pictur? before I close it). But my money's going to be on Yen strength vs $ and Euro, I think...Meanwhile, if history holds, looks like a good chance $Cad will break 1.09 before the end of the week (but not good enough for me to hold it tonight)...

USA Zeus 02:17 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 22:19 GMT May 15, 2007

CB- Well friend I see hot zones as price zones that have an extremely high probability for contra price reactions using a family recipe of a non-linear quadratic polynomial indicator + technique.

Now looking for EUR/USD to pop to about 1.3620ish and GBP/USD to pop above 1.99. Let's see..

Syd 02:04 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM To Hold 0200 GMT News Conference In Sydney

Syd 01:33 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Australia 1Q Wage Index +1.0% On Qtr Vs Consensus +1.3% censored

Syd 01:21 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
China shares may extend losses after yesterday's sharp fall, on concerns securities regulator may implement more measures soon to rein in overheated market; Shanghai Composite expected to test 3850 technical support; index tumbled 3.6% to 3899.18 yesterday; "the broad sell-off in the banking sector implied fund managers have turned cautious on the market's outlook," says Zhu Haibin at Everbright Securities. Bank of Communications may lose 2%-3% on profit-taking after soaring more than 70% to CNY13.54 on debut yesterday. Shenzhen Index off 2.6% at 1097.94

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle)
: The market was able to find support from a significant projected chart point at 1.4869. The daily and 3-day cycle reference indicates that 1.4984 and 1.5071 are projected resistant points. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has potential to consolidate between 1.4911 - 1.5084. The daily cycle projected series indicates that the center of the projected series is located at [1.4926] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.4999* // 1.5018.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.4779 - 1.4804* - 1.4816 - 1.4834 // 1.4853* - 1.4877 - 1.4889 - 1.4901* - [1.4926] - 1.4950* - 1.4963 - 1.4975 - 1.4999* // 1.5018 - 1.5036 - 1.5048* - 1.5073 ...

Syd 00:53 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
Any Yen Dip Thursday Likely Shallow
By Iain McDonald and Patrick Bennett
Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen says Fukui's repeated reference to the BOJ's "second perspective" harks back to the 1980s when inflation was low and easy monetary policy allowed a now infamous financial bubble to grow.

Jen says Fukui's references are understandable but not credible because asset prices aren't high enough.

"But if growth remains robust, and inflation stays low, the BOJ could still tighten," he says.

Fukui himself said last week that "if we are sluggish on carrying out interest rate changes, the risk (of economic overheating or slowdown) could increase."

Globally, investors flush with liquidity continue to pile into risky assets partly funded by borrowing or selling yen.

Analysts agree there is growing potential for surprising policy action in any number of countries to address the harm caused by the tide of liquidity. Such policy action - no matter how finessed - has the potential to trigger risk aversion and an unwinding of yen carry trades.

A number of key carry trade pairs are at or near multi-year highs, while outstanding short yen positions held through the IMM, which is often a useful proxy for the wider market, remain at extended levels, if off the peaks of earlier this year.

Yes, economic fundamentals globally seem strong despite a slowing in the U.S. Yes, previous carry trade unwinding and episodes of risk aversion have proved temporary. But the higher global stock markets rise, the more significant the drop and the subsequent fallout for other markets when it happens. And in that environment, the yen should outperform.

Melbourne Qindex 00:17 GMT May 16, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle): As shown in the weekly cycle charts 1.1057 is a resistant point. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.1013 - 1.1018. The distribution profile of monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market is pulling towards 1.0909. Projected barriers are expected at 1.0932 and 1.0969. The lower barrier of the daily cycle is located at 1.1033* // 1.1049 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.1033* // 1.1049.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0839 - 1.0861* - 1.0871 - 1.0888 // 1.0904* - 1.0925 - 1.0936 - 1.0947* - [1.0969] - 1.0990* - 1.1001 - 1.1012 - 1.1033* // 1.1049 - 1.1066 - 1.1076* - 1.1098 ...

 




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