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Forex Forum Archive for 05/17/2007

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Syd 23:49 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Deteriorating net migration data suggests NZ economy "running on empty" says Goldman Sachs JBWere senior economist Shamubeel Eaqub, noting strong migration flows in recent years have provided "significant demographic support" for housing market in particular. Today's data showing 2.2% on-month fall in April, +0.5% on-year rise adds downside risk to economic outlook, increases probability of deeper downturn; data "exposes weakness in the economy which has been heavily reliant on population growth over recent years." Expects RBNZ to keep OCR steady at 7.75% for balance of 2007.

Aus Stu 23:48 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Found this interesting ditty in Mining News, nothing compares to a first hand view. Sorry not to link, need password

Letter - China growth not all it seems

I HAVE been a huge buyer of the China story since 1995 when I ventured to the great steel city of Wuhan to study Mandarin at the appropriately named Iron and Steel University. I have lived on and off in China since and now live in Singapore but visit regularly.

I was in Hangzhou two weeks ago, a middling city of 5 million people about 200km inland from Shanghai. I arrived at the airport late at night and was surprised to see on the 20km journey between the airport and the city very few lights. Even in the city, many of the large buildings were merely ghostly shadows of a concrete outline.

During the day and on my return trip to the airport a few days later, it became clear what was going on.

The 20km trip to the airport was on a state of the art, elevated six-lane expressway surrounded by a flat alluvial plain for as far as the eye could see. To my utter amazement, on either side of the expressway, as far as the eye could see, were identical three-story bungalows, all empty. There must have been thousands of them, all the same, right next to each other with their eaves nearly touching.

They had clearly been there for sometime and were not being sold, most likely due to the fact that, apart from being hideously ugly, they were probably too expensive for the average Chinese punter (although Hangzhou has the highest disposable family income in China at CNY50,000 per annum).

Likewise in the city, there were scores of multi-tower apartment complexes, all empty. Certainly, you would have thought a Chinese curtain maker would be rubbing their hands in glee with that many bare windows to cover! Unfortunately, not a curtain maker in sight.

Therefore, to whoever is buying Rio shares at 100 bucks apiece, I would recommend that they take a little trip to view the biggest bubble of all time developing in China.

Get them to chat to the underemployed curtain maker. Either that or get them to have a chat to the Japanese and ask them how they valued assets in the late 1980s.

Cheers,
Hamish Mackley




USA Zeus 23:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Las Vegas Daniel 22:43 GMT May 17, 2007
Well Daniel isn't that interesting. When it goes up we think at the top "shake-in" when they see nothing but stars. Now after such disappointment they get the fair handed "shake-out". Can't say we didn't warn of a USD camp growing and growing.

GT! :-)

Syd 23:29 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen Friday said the country's high local currency will start depreciating when the central bank clearly signals an end to the current tightening cycle, and reiterated that the government is keen to address over-investment in housing with some form of tightening measures.

"Most people keep pricing in some expectation around a further increase in interest rates," Cullen told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

"I think we are likely to see the (New Zealand) dollar coming back at the point at which the Reserve Bank clearly signals the tightening cycle has come to an end," he said.

The finance minister also said the longer the New Zealand dollar stays at its current high level, the greater the risk of a steep fall through a sharp unwinding of carry trades.

Cullen said the unwinding of the carry trade is "always a risk, obviously when we have such strength of the dollar through carry trades.

"The longer the high level (of the local currency) goes on, the higher the risk of such a correction," Cullen said.

Yen carry trades, in which investors borrow in a low-yielding currency like the yen and invest in high-yielding assets like New Zealand dollar-denominated debt, have been a key driver of the local currency.Cullen said the Reserve Bank is also concerned about the local currency and the imbalances in the domestic economy.

hk ab 23:27 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
syd, do you mean the weakening of dlr/jpy or the weakening of yen? and do you see if carry continues, the metals will continue its sell-off? thanks for clarifying.

Syd 23:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min: NZD To Drop Once RBNZ Signals End To Hike-Cycle
Risk Of Carry Trade Unwind If NZD Gains Persist
NZD Unlikely To Fall Steeply Like In Oct '00
NZD/USD Is Currently Well Above Equilibrium Rate
RBNZ Concerned About NZD, Imbalances In Econ
Govt Still Wants Some Form Of Curbs On House Invest
RBNZ Supports Govt Push For Alternative Measures
Best Option Is To Ring-Fence House Invest Income
Home Levy Idea To Cool Sector Is Probably "Dead"








Wellington, N.Z. 23:12 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
The Australasians (Ozzy & Kiwi) are expected to provide the
best trading opportunities Today.

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts
go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above) or CLICK HERE

Max McKegg

Syd 23:09 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades hold the key , if the yen is allowed to weaken considerably more the drop will not only affect carry currencies but gold and hedgefunds

Syd 22:48 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD still looks vulnerable on downside despite evidence of elevated investor risk appetite and solid support for carry trades, says National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos; says recent round of better economic news in U.S. combined with benign wages report in Australia has seen Australia/U.S. 2-year bond yield spread narrow to 142 bps from 150 bps earlier this week. Break below 140 bps would pressure AUD/USD lower, possibly to as low as 0.8060 if there are further declines in metal prices at same time. AUD/USD last at 0.8235

Lahore FM 22:48 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 22:31 GMT May 17, 2007
Thanx NYAM,i found the e-wave aspect of the view interesting.

Las Vegas Daniel 22:43 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to read over the posts from a few hours ago regarding the speculation of different countries wanting to jump ship in regards to the EUR. Wasn’t it just two weeks ago when the EUR/USD cross hit 1.3681 all of Europe was out dancing in the streets shouting ‘The EUR is a success’.

London NYAM 22:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
lahore// i would expect if this is wave 4 or ptentially the end of wave then the answer to the direction of your question will be answered in the short time frame you offer. The longer it takes to decide the direction (ie no significant new lows or new highs (4hrly charts) then the less likely that the correction will extend lower and more likely that the inertial weight of the carry will pressure the yen to new highs.

Lahore FM 22:27 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
IQQ AV 22:25 GMT May 17, 2007
Thanx AV.

IQQ AV 22:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
i see a posibility of 120.20 but lower look less likely unless after a month or so

Lahore FM 22:17 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
anyone here sees 119.20/30 over next few days?

Syd 22:16 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Proposed new powers for the U.K.'s Revenue & Customs would mean businesses face surprise raids from tax inspectors suspicious about their affairs, the Financial Times reported Thursday. Officials seek the right to enter business premises and examine goods and records as part of their investigations into corporation tax liability, according to a consultation paper published Thursday that advisers warn could impose extra burdens on small businesses, the newspaper reported.
Private residences could also be visited by officials who want to inspect business assets or stock records kept on the premises, according to the newspaper.
And, tax officials could visit personal taxpayers, in cases where they have failed to provide requested information, the newspaper reported. The consultation document said this would be an option "especially in cases where understanding of tax may be limited."
http://www.ft.com

Syd 22:14 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: World Bank Pres Wolfowitz Resigning Effective June 30

beirut jb 22:04 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Hi Traders

well i didnt post here lately often but it's just to thanks Jay


i had a pb with s a x o , he tried his best to help me
but we didnt have any result , at least for now


what I think after 4 years experience that we need badly a broker made by trader for traders

GVI very pro they should do it,

evry day we watch here somone having pb with his broker:

slipage,permium,unabilty to pass an order in fast move market,,margin , server freezing etc,,,


it's realy a miss , i did try so far many of them

they cost me a lot, no one is perfect so far not even close

GVI john 21:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/17/2007 20:38	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3493	121.28	1.2277	1.9744	1.0988	0.6832	163.64
High	1.3545	121.37	1.2283	1.9791	1.1055	0.685	163.83
Low	1.3477	120.68	1.2196	1.9734	1.097	0.683	163.21
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3534	120.54	1.2159	1.9757	1.1012	0.6825	162.50
10 day	1.3542	120.28	1.2139	1.9790	1.1020	0.6811	162.39
20 day	1.3576	119.83	1.2091	1.9857	1.1073	0.6806	162.09
50 day	1.3450	118.86	1.2107	1.9701	1.1344	0.6793	159.16
100 day	1.3252	119.39	1.2223	1.9601	1.1523	0.6726	157.54
200 day	1.3049	118.41	1.2274	1.9298	1.1395	0.6726	153.96

USA Zeus 21:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Further- Suspect the decoupling going on will lead into some wild action all over the board.
tchau

GVI john 21:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
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Halifax CB 21:33 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
DS - you might want to split the pair into USD pairs, and ask how much room is left for $/Cad to go down, and/or USD/JPY to go up. Just a thought...

USA Zeus 21:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Have a sneaking suspicion about the big oil move today (started y'day as anticipated-posted 2 days ago). Yes actually thought oil would climb- but CAD- what did it do? The USD? Hmmm. Have a feeling I'll be back later in a fantastic Happy Day profit taking Mood.
cheers!

London NYAM 21:20 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Each of the last three highs set in CADJPY were acheived on declining momentum. This is consistant with a momentum falling into a final wave 5 subdivision. to know whether it will end or revert to an uptrend enxtended fifth wave will be decided after a highly likely initial correction test lows and subsequently a test of the highs.

London NYAM 21:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
DS//Thanks for a great contrarian indicator. When a group begins to display signs of hubris in an assetts price direction to the moon, then one can assume all bets are in and the likelyihood of a reversal improves.

Geneva DS 20:01 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
cadjpy closing yet at another peak... probably more of buffet buying and more m and A coming over next few weeks and month... charts did not work anymore in this cross since we broke 106... trend is too strong... expect only minor pullback to 10960 ish but 120 and 140 there we go this year... gl ft

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:54 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:37 GMT May 17, 2007 || Keen eye... although, we've been battling that right shoulder for some time and could fizzle out before we reach the neck line at 17350.

UK Alex 19:39 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd, there's a table of various lenders (incl. RICS 7%) forecasts on housepricecrash.co.uk

Syd 19:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Nationwide forecasts house price slowdown
UK's second-largest mortgage lender says annual house price growth could fall from over 10.% to as little as 5% this year
LINK

UK Alex 19:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
They'll all be eating their words in a few months time.

Mtl JP 19:27 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:17 / it is a dangerous situation when all the law and policy-making monkies think alike, if only publicly, and none dare voice dissent. BUT, by the same token, it offers great opps to those with vision and patience.

dc CB 19:22 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
this and the $2.23 rise in june crude bode well for CADitte longs.

UK Alex 19:20 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
I'm hearing the 'R' word being mentioned a lot today, no not RECESSION, but the other one...

dc CB 19:19 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
this is my fav quote of the day...from briefing's Market Update.

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to forge ahead, as buyers bully sellers into covering their shorts yet again.
The Dow is hitting not just another record but a new milestone, eclipsing the 13,500 level for the first time ever.

Syd 19:17 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
*DJ FDIC Bair: Doesn't See Systemic Risk In Subprime Sector Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Thursday that she doesn't see "systemic risk" in the subprime mortgage sector.

"This is obviously a crisis for individual families, neighborhoods and some communities," Bair said in a luncheon speech here, but noted that she doesn't see systemic implications for the economy.

Bair did say she agreed with the "economic analysis" given by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech delivered earlier Thursday. In his speech, Bernanke said he doesn't expect the effects of the problems in the subprime mortgage market to spill over to the rest of the economy. Subprime loans are made to borrowers that are seen as high-risk and have a troubled credit history.

Mtl JP 18:57 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:37 / When it will happen, I expect it be harsher still. IF only for the "lessons" that our so-called policymakers, lawmakers and CBankers keep telling us they have learned: ex. of gloating about market innovation like for ex. the spreading of risk to those supposedly willing and able to absorb it or deals such the ASEAN block swap deals which are supposed to serve as levies againsts potential spillover.

Bring it on: market vs interventionist dirigists!

Fairfield JC 18:54 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:37 GMT May 17, 2007

Is this a tip you got or just a joke? cause I am expecting something along these lines soon. Or regardless a continuation of this USD strength for a few months at least. TIA brother...

Syd 18:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
House prices: UK still leads the pack for overvaluation
17 May 2007
With all the recent talk of the US sub-prime crisis and the Spanish property market, the market in Blighty sometimes seems forgotten. But, according to a recent report from ABN AMRO, house prices in the US are merely 25 per cent over valued, but in the UK they are 50 per cent too high. Ergo, goes the argument, the UK still faces the biggest danger of crash. It seems to us that a crash in UK house prices is inevitable. The timing is harder to predict, but if some of the worst fears over the course of interest rates for the next year or so prove correct, this crash could come a lot sooner than many previously thought.

PAR 18:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Expect a 1987 style Nikkei crash overnight just to bring USDJPY to Kampo s long term target of 122.OO . From next week I will become yen positive. Just need one final blow out .

PAR 18:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Gonzalez, Wolfowitz White House HR department really doing a good job .

PAR 18:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Japanese deflationary pressures increasing with crude at $ 65.00 and gasoline at $2.45. Japan becoming a car free society will be really deflationary.

Halifax CB 17:20 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - Thinking about your method last night, it struck me as very much like military "defense in depth". Can be painful at times, but in the long run it can be amazingly successful (e.g. Russia vs. Germany WWII, or Russia vs. Napolean)....Primary necessity isn't just simple math - but also lots of cannon fodder :) Me, I think I prefer tiptoeing through the statistical tulips...GL.GT....

Syd 17:12 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
posted yesterday on financial
Syd 22:07 GMT May 16, 2007
Spain risks crisis over vanishing reserves
Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate.
Total reserves have now fallen by two thirds from €41.5bn in early 2002. Greece and Portugal have seen a similar drop.
The Banco de España refused to comment on the sales, leaving it unclear why reserves have fallen so low, or where the money has gone.It appears the bank has been draining the reserves to help finance the current account deficit, which has ballooned to 9.5pc of GDP, reaching €8.6bn in January alone.
"The current account is completely out of control," said Alberto Mattelan, an economist at Inverseguros in Madrid.
"We have the worst deficit in our history and worse than any other country in the western world. It has not yet become a 'street concern', but I can assure you that it is of great concern to us economists. This will turn bad over the next 18 months," he said.
The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to €13.2bn (£9.02bn), equivalent to 12 days of imports.LINK

Syd 08:44 GMT May 16, 2007
Many families are experiencing inflation of more than twice the official rate published by the Government, according to figures produced for The Daily Telegraph by Capital Economics.
There is a massive disparity between the living costs experienced by different types of households, with pensioners and middle-class families facing price rises of more than 7pc, the figures show.LINK

Divorce inevitable as eurozone splits into two camps

Spain is about to relive Britain's ERM torture in 1992: forced to tighten into an accelerating downturn, this time with no easy way out.
"Spain faces a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default - a depression in fact," says Bernard Connolly, global strategist for Banque AIG. Greece is more or less a photo replica.
The euro is today stronger than it was in mid-2005 when two Italian ministers called for a return to the lira. Now France is suffering too: house prices fell in January; the car industry has lost its footing. France's share of eurozone exports has fallen 18pc under EMU.
France will not sweat out deflation, like the others. It might pick its marbles and walk, doing to the euro what it did to the EU constitution.
And what of Germany, conquering market share at the expense of Club Med in a beggar-thy-neighbour policy? House prices are rebounding after a long slump. Pent-up demand is bursting out. Germany will need higher rates, perhaps much higher.
Berlin gave up the D-Mark under an implicit contract that the euro would never fuel German inflation.
This contract will be enforced. If not, German citizens will pull the plug on EMU.
The only question is who will file for divorce first: the Latins or Teutonia. They cannot both share the currency.LINK

lkwd jj 17:12 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
judging by daily lows cable might drop secongd shoe if we go below 19740 (may4). low today is 33.

Alaska Moon 16:51 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Well.... If nothing else, this place is really entertaining !!
Moon

The Netherlands Purk 16:50 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Dubai AA 16:29 GMT May 17, 2007

No need, i know that story by head, and it was quite funny and educative, IF you know what is behind it. You are missing my point. Machmood does not know ZEUS and quite frankly i doubt that he/she will ever will...

lkwd jj 16:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
usdchf back to april 9 highs . looks like a bottom in palce .

USA Zeus 16:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Tricky math for those who can't use a calculator-
Old ave 1.1041 was weighted to 90% when added 1.0997 for new ave 1.10366 which went 50% ave with more aggressive purchase of 1.0979. New ave = 1.1008. That became a 2/3 weight when 1.0969 was added for an amazing 1.0995. NMow that became 90% when added 1.0976 for new ave 1.0993.
Money management is the key in position trading- can put you in a good Mood if you understand simple maths. Make sure when positioning to do it in the hot zones then take cream off the top to keep it balanced. Ahhh

Dubai AA 16:29 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 16:23 GMT May 17, 2007
Well GVI you are the moderators, but sometimes i have enough from people who judge without knowing. If you whish you can delete my post, but at least i am genuine.

Luke, dont know what you are talking about sorry

-----------------------------------------------
Geachte heer / Dear Purk,

Take a look at the archief and read about Zeus what he did to Mahmood. Just for your information.

Goeie Dag, Have a nice day!!!
Arrais

USA Zeus 16:29 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
What? My beeper went off.
Bought more USD/CAD at 1.0976- not too much though since last purchase was at 1.0969 before the timely +65 off the top as posted in real time of course. Enough now to put us all in a good (Mah-mfer) Mood!
GT!

The Netherlands Purk 16:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Well GVI you are the moderators, but sometimes i have enough from people who judge without knowing. If you whish you can delete my post, but at least i am genuine.

Luke, dont know what you are talking about sorry

LDN Mahmood 16:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Only the inexperienced would let Jon (Zeus) fool them. He's average usd/cad is hillarious!

HK Kevin 16:12 GMT - I know where the positions are - 1.0963 hasn't been broken on the upside 1.1050 is distant but very significant for a minor reversal.

Makassar Alimin 16:22 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
cad jpy is a bit extended now, time to exit some, reload at lower level

CANBERRA JD 16:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Wow, this forum just got spicy.

Neatherlands Luke Lurkson 16:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk
Hello Purk, it's me, I'm back. Remember?
Hope your new black-box(PHS) is being used for profit.

GVI john 16:16 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Personal attacks are not permitted here.

The Netherlands Purk 16:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
LDN ,Mahmood 16:07 GMT May 17, 2007

You are a sick man, good for you that i am a descent man, that the sand have mercy on you. It is your brain that can not read a guy (girl?) like ZEUS. Dont think that you know what a Donkey is like, because if you did your head was not covered with sand...

HK Kevin 16:12 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 16:07 GMT, do I read the chart wrong. USD/CAD 1.0963 still hold

CANBERRA JD 16:10 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 16:07 GMT May 17, 2007

Thats not very nice.

Bodrum OEE 16:08 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:28 GMT May 17, 2007
London 11:56 GMT May 17, 2007

correction (I just cannot leave can I?)

-allies or are they?: parties responsible, who sometimes in sync and in others in disassociated pattern while playing with fire through this nonsense policy, over or underestimate who are with or against them respectively. China, an example in case (should further read) is one country that can act against irresponsible bunch dictating direction of no merit.

Gone now.

Promise.

Regards

madrid mm 15:32 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's Federal Customs Service is seeking $22.5 billion in damages from the Bank of New York Co., the world's second-largest custodian of investor assets, for alleged money laundering in the 1990s.

The bank ``committed violations of Russian law that resulted in damages of $22.5 billion to the state'' between 1996 and 1999, Maxim Smal, a lawyer for the service, said by phone after filing the lawsuit in the Moscow Arbitration Court today. Andrei Stukov, head of the Customs Service's legal department, confirmed the amount of damages sought via a spokeswoman.

Como Perrie 15:27 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Workers at Latin America`s biggest gold mine, Peru`s Yanacocha, have failed to reach a pay deal with management after a week of talks and are considering a strike, a union leader said.

"The only option left open to us is the use of force, a strike," Guillermo Nina, secretary general of the union at Yanacocha, told Reuters by telephone.

He said, however, that union representatives would resume talks with management on Monday.

Nina said the union was seeking a 21% increase while management was offering 14%.

Miners across Latin America are seeking big pay increases to reflect the sharp rise in the price of raw materials on international markets in recent years.

Yanacocha, in northern Peru, is controlled by US miner Newmont Mining Corp, the majority shareholder, and Peru`s Buenaventura.

No one from the mine was available to comment.

Output from Yanacocha is forecast at 1.6 Moz of gold this year, down from 2.6 Moz in 2006. Peru is the world`s No 5 gold producer. (May 17 Reuters)


hk ab 15:21 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:25 GMT May 17, 2007

where do you see them?

The Netherlands Purk 15:08 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Loonert ready for a new low. missed e/u so now seeking for a pair that gives nice opps for 20 pips.
First din din...

Gen dk 14:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 14:40 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrumm OEE// Thnaks for your views. We wait and see. Note the other theme I read freom MLs views yesterday; The US economy miraculously and slowly adjusts its Trade deficit with the gradually weakening currency vs other trading partners (ie other than their partner in dreamland: Japan).
GLGT

Gen dk 14:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 14:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
London 11:56 GMT May 17, 2007

Thank you very much NYAM.

Correction first; I too can get mentally and sentimentally involved when I have a view I can quantify and qualify in process.

I hope to better explain what I see on graph form (my weaker skill) better: all indications - except one analysis in derivative form signal further JPY weakness. That exception, is a slow build up (barely visible) on the opposite direction.

I think what I explained above is the result.

JPY (or credit or liquidity) bubble could burst for (other)reasons:

-bubble life: the expansion (state of denial) started in late 2002 and any appropriate response is delayed until now. The equity bubble of late 1990's lasted pretty much the same length (in fact shorter, 1997-2000 in the USA)

-allies or are they?: parties responsible, who sometimes in sync and in others in disassociated pattern while playing with fire through this nonsense policy, over or underestimate who are with or against them respectively. China, an example in case.

- expectations ahead: How many interest rake hike potential does EUR, GBP, AUD; NZD and USD has compared to JPY (currency of a country with 2% growth target this year) -- or Chinese Yuan for that matter?

-speed: it could be "who is out first" when and if JPY does start to go up. This time around however, compared to February 2007, the pace of the move could be much higher since almost everyone in position against JPY in quantity possibly are out now.

-impact: later the correction worse it is on the global scale

AUD could be another currency to watch for indications of an unwind in carry trade (pyramid scheme).

Out for the day.

Health, happiness, peace and wealth to you all.



GENEVA DS 14:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
may be PAR or KAMPO...

GENEVA DS 14:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
hearing by the way interesting buyers of gold JPY... hmmm...

GENEVA DS 14:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
may be some japanese or chinese will NOW diversify into GOLD , as it obviously has broken the traders support line... that is what they do all the time in the currency market as well... beware of strong bounce here and retest of 670 tomorrow..

hk ab 14:11 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
oil man, let's see if bc is willing to load up gold from these levels.

The Netherlands Purk 14:05 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Earlier that should read btw.....

The Netherlands Purk 14:02 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Well only the 16370 was a hit. Closed at 16347 sell price.
Pulled all orders out, tomorrow another day for bugger. Now waiting for e/u to bottom out and take a long. Normally when euro is a short the bounces are realier than when it longs, i will await the 13460 ish.

London NYAM 14:01 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Cable seems oversold for the moment and losing downward steam. Weve cleared a nice 5 wave pattern and it may bounce from here to 19780+.

Monaco Oil man 13:58 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Gold broke 660 , extended to 655 with the stops..Bleaking outlook for the next few following days towards 630 before next move to the upside..(if bounce 630).

hk ab 13:55 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
can someone refresh the time for Henry pls?

CANBERRA JD 13:39 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Short term i wnat to see some sort of move up so i can short again :P but if we start the journey up, we might stay that way.

HK REVDAX 13:35 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:32//Tks. Please go to Help Forum to answer some questions on trading.

HK Kevin 13:32 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:25 GMT, your perception has good track record.

CANBERRA JD 13:32 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Where is Mr Zeus on this fine day.

HK REVDAX 13:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 13:28//For a trade of a day and half long, you don't need a reason. You need some luck and gut. hahaha

Sofia mik 13:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
322 GMT [Dow Jones] Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has some
reasonably soothing words for his audience at the Atlanta Business Awards
breakfast. Bloomberg reports Greenspan saying he sees the mortgage market
absent the subprime sector doing "reasonably well," though he can't predict how
the housing market will turn out. He's reported as saying, however, that the
subprime mortgage problems are hampering the recovery in the housing market.
Seems he may have just scooped the incumbent, since current Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke is just about to deliver his address on that very subject at the
Chicago Fed's banking conference.

hk ab 13:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
RP// I am a bit worried with the way the big boyz pushing the XAG lower, now it becomes a trending lower. not seen for a long time.

Sofia mik 13:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
BB live on cnbc from Chicago

CANBERRA JD 13:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Well, you have to have reason to buy pairs like cable and euro.. The price is expensive, so there would want to be a good reason :P

HK REVDAX 13:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 13:22//No 'reason' can be seen because the mkt, as you said, is unpredictable. Mkt turns for reasons that are known later on.

CANBERRA JD 13:22 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:18 GMT May 17, 2007

Right now, personally, I don't see any reason for a reversal, and no major technical levels have been hit. Thus there is no reason fundamentally or technically for a reversal, at this point in time. However market is unpredictable.

HK REVDAX 13:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:16 //$ is topping out. I know that you are having a grain of salt with my perception.

HK Kevin 13:16 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:04 GMT, what do you mean? Dlr is going stronger or weaker.

CANBERRA JD 13:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Its times like this you stop and think "why the censored is the pound holding is ground"

NY RP 13:07 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:54 GMT May 17, 2007
Daily price action not good. But not looking at dailies.
Study time is Memorial Day with a drink in one hand and a ruler in the other. LOL. Seriously, no worries. All is good. Spain dumped gold, the short gold all the time guys are counting their chickens. We will see at month end. I am sure most weak hands will be out for the move over 700$. Watch and see. Good luck.

HK REVDAX 13:04 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Anyone believes the $ reversal is around the corner right at this moment?

hk ab 12:54 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
RP, perhaps, today is the reason why need to be vigilant to be bullish in metals, everything is possible.

London NYAM 12:53 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HC// Hope, fear, greed, and despair. I hear you. ;)

CANBERRA JD 12:50 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Have closed e/u and a/u shorts, took a g/u short but did not post here. Closed that too.. Will take a nap i think let the pain be dealt to the US traders.

HK Kevin 12:49 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Glad to see the fx marekt has turned alive today. AUD downside target 50 ma at 8179.

Melbourne Qindex 12:46 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The followings are still valid :-


Melbourne Qindex 03:13 GMT May 17, 2007
EUR/USD : The market will test 1.3494.

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT May 17, 2007
EUR/USD : The market is working on the barrier of 1.3503 // 1.3525*.


3-Day Cycle Reference : ... 1.3435 - 1.3465* - 1.3480 - 1.3503 // 1.3525* - 1.3555 - 1.3570 - 1.3585* - [1.3615] - 1.3645* - 1.3660 - 1.3675 - 1.3705* // 1.3728 - 1.3750 - 1.3765* - 1.3795 ...


Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT May 17, 2007
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3563. Speculatve selling pressure will increase if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through a projected supporting level of 1.3462 - 1.3467.

London HC 12:44 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
NYAM. This is what happens in a low vol, tight range environment. Relatively small movements can produce an exaggerated emotional reacxtion.

London NYAM 12:42 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
next trend line resistance on USDJPY appears at 121.35/45 from double top highs of 10 Jan and 11 Feb.

London NYAM 12:39 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Quite right HC.

London HC 12:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
NYAM. I would not say slammed. The day low before the # was 1.9743 and the new low was 1.9738. Last quote 1.9741-43

London NYAM 12:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Actually looks like Eur is taking the brunt.

London NYAM 12:34 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Cable getting slammed.

hk ab 12:33 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
sam, some reservation

slv sam 12:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
as always for me usdcad is a reliable leader ccy for USD, and so far price action tells me USD will fall sharply today!GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:27 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
just saw here that Li Ka-Ching - HK's wealthiest man said Chinese stocks arre too expensive - delivered at the meeting of Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd.

ist sc 12:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
GVI john Question,
Answer: NO

London NYAM 12:19 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY Just broke rising T/L resistance from March 12th high to April 16th high. which came in at 121.05/10

London CB 12:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
ab, CBs are always buying and selling to boost the P&L

hk ab 12:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
yesterday someone mentioned Chinese sold eur... I am surrprised.

RIC fxq 12:10 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:34 GMT

as you probably well remember we used to have mini-meltdowns every time a rumor of the surfaced but not since he is only just another talking head with to actual power I would doubt it very much

GVI john 12:06 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 12:05 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
from GVI...
Good cause for BOC worry?

GVI john 12:04 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/17/2007 10:25	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3532	120.95	1.2219	1.9776	1.103	0.6843	163.69
High	1.3544	121.03	1.2233	1.9792	1.1055	0.685	163.8
Low	1.3516	120.69	1.2198	1.976	1.1027	0.6837	163.23
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3541	120.48	1.2160	1.9763	1.1024	0.6826	162.51
10 day	1.3546	120.25	1.2139	1.9793	1.1026	0.6812	162.39
20 day	1.3578	119.81	1.2091	1.9858	1.1076	0.6806	162.09
50 day	1.3450	118.86	1.2107	1.9701	1.1345	0.6793	159.16
100 day	1.3252	119.39	1.2223	1.9601	1.1523	0.6726	157.54
200 day	1.3049	118.41	1.2274	1.9299	1.1395	0.6726	153.96

hk ab 12:01 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have cad data?

London NYAM 11:56 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 10:25 GMT May 17, 2007//
Yes sentimentality, a mode I have been susceptible to too often, is a killer in this market if one does not detach. I applaud your distance.
I hope I understand your 4 points as a group. The dollar is undervalued against the Yen, I think you say, which is possible from the perspective of an environment of modest global growth and low volatility of (especially but not only) traditionally ‘risky’ assets because of interest differentials. Hence the carry-trade blah blah, which I think agrees with your point 1 and 3. Point 2 would be an unwind of some sort, be it position squaring, or inter-market turbulence, raising risk profiles. I think that fits well with the thesis-antithesis that gets replayed, sometimes rudely, on this forum. Trying to gauge where we are in this great tug-of-war is tough. The fact that it is so ‘out there’ in the open suggests to me that we are in the twilight days. The hic-up in Feb also supports the view that there are imbalances in risk assessment. But there were hic-ups in 87, 95, and 98 in Equity markets that only portended the crash in 2000. That’s important to keep in mind before we jump onto trend reversals. My personality prefers an unwind as a kind of retribution for poor fiscal management, but that is just schadenfreude and doesn’t really have much of a place in trading decisions as you well know. Best regards.

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
In China, the Year of the Golden Pig has boosted Chinese demand of Gold by 31 percent, with affluent city buyers opting for 24-carat bars of pure gold.

madrid mm 11:34 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Someone might be ejected soon....

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Montreal, Canada's fourth- largest bank, said it will record pretax losses of C$680 million ($618 million) from trading natural gas contracts, at least 50 percent more than its estimate last month.

The company said on April 27 that the trading loss would be between C$350 million and C$450 million. The Toronto-based bank will record the losses in the first and second quarters of this fiscal year, it said in a Canada NewsWire statement today.

Como Perrie 11:34 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 11:30 GMT May 17, 2007

Tend to think markets will crash when Greenspan dies.

RIC fxq 11:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:22 GMT

a word of caution re. Gross: he is the biggest book talker among US fixed income managers and has a pretty poor track record.

Of course now that he has G'span as his resident "guru" that could change (speaking of boo talkers) :-)

dc CB 11:29 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
all you CADiites, next up today BOC Review 10:30 ET

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/media/events.html

Melbourne Qindex 11:24 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The followings are still valid :


Melbourne Qindex 11:45 GMT May 13, 2007
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the daily and 3-day cycle reference the supporting range is expected at 0.8156 - 0.8202. The market is going to consolidate between [1.8309] and [0.8319] initially during early period of this week. The daily cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8314 // 0.8329. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8269.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8269 - 0.8289* - 0.8299 - 0.8314 // 0.8329* - 0.8349 - 0.8359 - 0.8369* - [0.8390] - 0.8410* - 0.8420 - 0.8430 - 0.8450* // 0.8465 - 0.8480 - 0.8490* - 0.8510 ...


Melbourne Qindex 07:57 GMT May 13, 2007
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle ) : Upside targeting range is 0.8351 - 0.8416. Downside targeting range is 0.8156 - 0.8221.

Mtl JP 11:24 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 11:04 / 110.35-40

Dublin Flip 11:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
DS Yen is as weak (actually marginally weaker) against europe as it was at the height of the Asian currency crisis @ 163. Yen is weak against all it's Asian neighbours as well. Since the end of 2000 the USDX is down 25%.
So since 2001 open
EUR up 43%
GBP up 11%
CHF up 24%
NZD up 65%
CAD up 27%
AUD up 47%
IDR up 9%
INR up 13%
KRW up 27%
MYR up 10%
SGD up12%
THB up23%
ZAR up8%
CNY up 7%
JPY Down 6%

Como Perrie 11:22 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bill Gross of Pimco says FED funds to lower at 4.5 pct in the first quarter into next year.

dc CB 11:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Statcan: CPI

The all-items index without energy components advanced by 2.4% in April, up from 2.1% in March. This was the strongest year-over-year rise posted by this index since May 2003.

In April, the Bank of Canada's core index was up 2.5%, compared with the same month of the previous year. The growth in this index, which is used by the Bank of Canada to monitor the inflation-control target, increased in relation to the previous month, when it was 2.3%. This was the strongest rise posted by this index since March 2003.

Malta 11:17 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 10:28 GMT - Are you referring to Private Placement Program (PPP)?

Melbourne Qindex 11:14 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:41 GMT May 17, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle): As shown in the weekly cycle charts 1.1057 is a resistant point. The distribution profile of weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the odds are in favor of taking a long position for the upper trading range of 1.1179 - 1.1192 (see graphic presentation in my website) when the market is trading above 1.1057. The center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.1008] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.1062 // 1.1076. The expected range from a medium term view is 1.0610 - 1.1179 and the midpoint reference is 1.0895. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0895 // 1.0966 - 1.1037 - 1.1084 // 1.1179.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0899 - 1.0918* - 1.0927 - 1.0940 // 1.0954* - 1.0972 - 1.0981 - 1.0990* - [1.1008] - 1.1026* - 1.1035 - 1.1044 - 1.1062* // 1.1076 - 1.1089 - 1.1099* - 1.1117 .

Como Perrie 11:09 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 11:04 GMT May 17, 2007

The big guess around is if this 1.0950 usdcad holds, It seems so for now but would not play twice the agressive longs here. Plus tom will be just half day onto markets, so light observer of the next data raws. As the Leading indicators and the Philly idx.

Btw Canadian inflation above consensus at 0.4 MoM just released.

madrid mm 11:07 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Semiji - Forum room rule
"Discussions of brokers are not permitted."
8-) and wit good reasons .

Gen dk 11:05 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 11:04 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
CADJPY just broke through 110.... where is next target?

GENEVA DS 11:03 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
we can still speak about completely overvalued JPY... it depends how you see things...

semiji mal 11:03 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
madrid : thanks ,, or just give me ur guide ..

GENEVA DS 11:02 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
I do not think that we can speak about weak JPY.... USDJPY has traded 145 ish some 8 years ago... and 245 ish some 20 years ago.... has had a terrible time since then and USDJPY trades now only at 121 ish... you make the math...

Dublin Flip 11:00 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Weak Cap expenditure, weak Nikkei, weak Yen.
The weak currency aspirations of the BOJ/MOF/LDP discourage domestic investment while 0.5% intrest ratea are taken advantage of by global speculators who fan inflation.
The japanese must be the most creative statisticians than even the BEA and Eurostat boys to come up with deflation while energy and commodity prices have doubled and trebled in recent years.

PAR 10:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Too high japanese interest rates on top of rising gasoline, crude , natural gas,grain, milk ,rise and sake prices are causing a deflationary spiral in Japan. Voodoo economics and political currency manipulation ahead of elections .

Spotforex NY 10:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
BOJ will act to stem yen softness... Japan has to rethink its easy money strategy to weed out corporate inefficiencies....

170 top in eur/jpy
130 in usd/jpy

for now trend id your friend...buy Japan's woes cannot be solved by its weak yen policy

madrid mm 10:51 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
i would like to see a minus 0.50% from the BoJ, so i could borrow YEN , plug the money into KIWI $ , Ozzi $, and get paid by the lender. lol A kind of "new wavw" carry trade !! hey man !!

madrid mm 10:48 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
semiji mal 10:37 GMT May 17, 2007

contact the peoplemanaging this site.

Use the "contact us" link at the left hand bottomof this page

GENEVA DS 10:46 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR

I do agree, BOJ cannot keep these rates at so high level for too long, economy could collapse....

Monaco Oil man 10:44 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Go for potash (POT symbol),lots of potential still today...

Como Perrie 10:42 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
No Yens, then Gold is the answer imo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/17/cngold...

Gold is coming of age as an industrial metal in a host of uses from car catalysts to air conditioning and health care, adding 451 tonnes to global demand last year -- roughly offsetting sales by central banks.

semiji mal 10:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
hello all, i want to know ,, which platform the best for trade

PAR 10:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Imho dovish comments from Fukui and a weakening japanese economy mean that the next move by BOJ will be to lower interest rates.

Como Perrie 10:35 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Sry previous, thought about the general situation in junk, emerging high yielders and low grade corporates securities in general. But yours confirms they are full of paper and do not know where to sell risk.

Como Perrie 10:32 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 10:28 GMT May 17, 2007
Too risky. Wealth managment pfolios suggesting just the lower risk grade of bonds (AAA and selected countries gov issues - corportes just short term trades perspective if any). Maybe 5 to 10 pct if want to risk big for higher yields, even short to medium not long term for sure. It's a melangé unless It goes.

Spotforex NY 10:32 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
High Yield Investment Program, or HYIP, is a type of pyramid scheme normally offered via the Internet. HYIPs typically accept deposits as low as $1 while promising astoundingly high returns.

Online HYIP schemes rarely last for the long term. Overwhelming number of cases suggest that HYIPs are Ponzi schemes, in which new investors provide the cash to pay a profit to existing investors, which they typically then withdraw.[citation needed] This approach allows the scam to continue as long as new investors are found and/or old investors leave their money in the scheme, known as compounding (because even higher profits are promised).

semiji mal 10:31 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO : please do not invest ,, high risk

EU ZORRO 10:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Hi all...!..need help..

...any one have experience with High Yield Investment Program, or HYIP...

..is it safe?

TIA

Bodrum OEE 10:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
London 09:52 GMT May 17, 2007

Hello NYAM. I cought your post before I go. One or two modest thoughts on your kind response.

I am not attached sentimentally to any instrument, though from a perspective of fundamental valuation approach I have an idea about the material extent of JPY undervalution.

However Yen (I repeat myself with apologies) is overvalued against USD.

Thereby, what remains to be seen from this perspective is as follows:

1)US Dollars taking all other currencies higher against Japanese currency causing a further expansion in the bubble

2) vice versa (others pulling $/yen down)

3) USD/JPY high and other yen crosses down.

On 2) and 3) I suspect the move could start with GBP

4) none (much more likely)

Good day.

Regards

Como Perrie 10:23 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Also many multinationals are loosing big on the currency front import/export mix and raw materials. So the situation is worst than what we are allowed to see. Heard billions of fx losses per company, also BMW recently released a near 10 bio fx loss.

Como Perrie 10:15 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:10 GMT May 17, 2007

Fundamental factors of switching global economies behind lagging are causing concerns over the future of many govenrments. In neo economies or modern markets an instant shake instead of a regulated mutlti years yen correction is favoured imo. But this is just for the big and well organised desks more than for the small investor who is coming up always late in general.

Syd 10:10 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:58 GMT what I find confusing their concern over the carry trade yet continue to stoke the fire

London NYAM 10:07 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Kapp// Totally agree. I/We get caught up in our rationalization. We need it some times to keep conviction in our trade ideas...like back-up. Its difficult to seperate the two sometimes when your conviction/thesis was right or was wrong and you paid money for it hence you switch camps (capitulate).glgt
Incidently the latest ML fx analysis expects the carry to carry on into the 4th quarter this year before unwinding.They hedge that the timing may be a quarter earlier or later. But then theyre currency forecasts for laast year were awful.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:59 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM //
hello - nice that we been holding those shorts last weeks.
it is one thing to read the books and posts here that one must not trade with a bias.. but another thing to implement it in actual trading...

Como Perrie 09:58 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
G8 is holding the carry beast alive imo. So far anything might happen in the carry trade melangé, but unforecastable except the micro term is the yen situation.
Also economic datas out of Japan saw a clear cooling of the Japanese economy, even if It looks linked to lower exports into western economies, this while very interesting imo the dumping of the yen values to gain larger global trade share are starting to smell ineffective.
So far the situation is yet unclear and the yen looks still a non currency for the time being, while living the limbo of an under normalisation economy or a fatal contagion global outbreak.

I do love It to call the flu currency and trading just with aspirines.

London NYAM 09:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum// good day to you.
Seems like the carry vs correction is the basic thesis-antithesis de-semaine. It may be best to take that kind of distance while committment to a certain position is based on weighing the odds of which flows will win and which are over-stretched(hence careful range and breakout range technicals of whatever flavour). Now it seems like corrections of corrections of corrections with many crosses and at many scales. Not the best time to trade a trend, ANY trend, no matter how many people love their attachments to their thesis/es. glgt

Como Perrie 09:45 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Referring to Canada's inflation market has priced a lower inflation than previous higher jumps in prices seen there. So market is here yet cautiusly short the canadian.

In between do see scope for cable to rise towards the euro, which is trading at current around the .6840/43, accelerating lower below .6820/25. Stops seen .6855/60 on the other side. But the Spain situation might weight upon the cross imo.

Como Perrie 09:37 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Lotsa of Canada's datas in less than two hours to watch. Me out of the agressive long yesterday late already. Mixed here as 1.1000/1.0970 supports.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man //
hi - sorry for yesterday - I clearly got your idea about scaling in position .. (just confused the second post )

Monaco Oil man 09:19 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:26 GMT May 17, 2007

663 was just the low of that particular day on gold, 660 was the number to look for as downside break , and still is atm..Once under attraction should pull towards 630.

Should be fixed today if 660 goes, will also fit with euro breaking or not..
Meanwhile , $/Y touches 121.

The Netherlands Purk 09:17 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bugger: 16370-164002-16425-16445-... - 16354.
That is called rangetrading after finding the range. 16318 will spoil this or a tight range. MIB have the say now.
Also on the end of the range in e/u i will be waiting for a long or a short whatever comes.

Gen dk 09:16 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:02 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
A European bank's large purchase of U.S. dollars for a Chinese client pushed the Hong Kong dollar lower Thursday. Traders said U.S. dollar demand has been strong for corporate and options-related needs, and that they expect the U.S. dollar to test a recent high of HK$7.8260 in the coming two weeks. A trader with a local bank said a European bank has bought several hundred million U.S. dollars in the day's trading. "We are not sure why it is buying, but rumor has it that it is buying for Beijing. Whether it is the central bank or just a corporate client, we are not sure," he said. He added that U.S. dollar purchases by the European bank started Tuesday and estimated it had bought billions of the U.S. unit over the past few days. But another trader with a U.S. bank said he hadn't heard of any market rumors over U.S. dollar purchases by China's central bank. He said the recent demands for U.S. dollars followed "cheap outrights" or U.S. dollar/Hong Kong dollar forwards. "The implied spot rate from a one-year U.S. dollar/Hong Kong dollar forwards contract was around HK$7.75, so it is very attractive to buy now," he said.

ldn jp 08:56 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
LDN Julian Symmons 04:18 GMT May 17, 2007
lol....if not to the exact tick then will it be higher or lower than today?

GENEVA DS 08:50 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17667.htm

More bearish articles for our future.... but I still believe that too much people, that our world is going down... lots of bearishness all over.... watch out for a new bull run to continue in Stocks... we will overcome a huge wall of worry... best for long term bull... highest short interest ever in Dow Jones shares.... stocks up... and you know what that means for FOREX.... GBP / AUD / CAD UPPPPPPPP !!! JPY / CHF DOWNNNNN !!! great trading ahead for trend followers... horrible time ahead for contrarians.... gl gt...

CANBERRA JD 08:25 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
am now short a/u and e/u

Bodrum OEE 08:19 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 23:27 GMT May 16, 2007
ABHA FXS 23:01 GMT May 16, 2007
Bodrum OEE 11:51 GMT May 16, 2007


Good morning. My posted thought was based on a mix of fundamental analysis and graphics interpretation

What I see could be the start of a reversal in latter in my limited capacity. In relation to the former, an area of interest and involvement, a correction should have started much earlier.

I hope when and if it does occur those who are behind this irresponsible picture could realize it has been at the cost of
defensless people(s) and their own credibility. I wish it could be in return of only mine on both fronts.

I leave and wish all of you the best.



Syd 08:15 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 08:12 GMT this chap see them raising rates much sooner than they admit
The Japanese economy is growing above potential says Jesper Koll, chief economist at Merrill Lynch

HK [email protected] 08:12 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:03 GMT May 17, 2007
Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said Thursday that ....

Do not believe the Japs any story. They are the biggest liars in the markets. That kind of B.S rehtorics was in the market for a time and basically comes to fool traders.

Syd 08:03 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said Thursday that interest rate hikes may be possible even if consumer prices remain sluggish, suggesting that weak CPI figures alone will not rule out monetary tightening.

"Looking ahead, interest rate hikes will be needed to achieve sustainable economic growth with price stability. But we have no pre-timed schedule on future rate hikes. We will gradually raise rates while closely watching for possible risks, and whether the economy and prices move as we expect," Fukui told reporters at a press conference after the BOJ policy board decided leave the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50%.

Fukui gave no indication on how soon the central bank might raise interest rates.

CANBERRA JD 08:01 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
AM now considering euro and aud shorts.

Gen dk 08:00 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia mik 07:47 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 07:33

EU-Russia meeting 17-18+G8 19 MAY

HK [email protected] 07:40 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
NOW it all looks clear like a game of interest rate differentials, between jpy and other currencies.

For USD/JPY to make it safer to short USD/JPY which looks so inviting, better to sell USD/JPY when price will hit 121.0 for 121.45.

Just to be remembered that it is not only a game of interest diffe. and if the market will recieve any shock, that factor will be forgotten, and unwinding of carry trade will dominate the trade.

Sofia mik 07:36 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
morng, short chfyen 99.00

CANBERRA JD 07:33 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Would be interesting to know what this euro pressure is. Or where its coming from.. Eastern europeans no doubt..

madrid mm 07:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
"Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler;" - Albert Einstein

Maybe Greenny and Benny will offer meaty comments on the economy at respectively 12:30 gmt and 13:30 gmt

madrid mm 06:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged by unanimous vote.

Japan Q1 GDP of +0.5% versus market expectation of +0.7%.

Q1 external demand contribution to GDP at +0.4%. Private sector consumption +0.9%, capex -0.9% vs expectation of +0.7%. Public investment -0.1%, housing investment -0.3%. FY2006/07 real GDP +1.9%, on the dot with Government forecast.

MoF Koji Omi says GDP figures are not bad. GDP shows economic trend is firming as a whole. Not need to comments on BoJ policy.

Japan Economics Min Prof Hiroko Ota says GDP data confirm recovery is continuing. Japan still not yet out of deflation. Will continue to carefully guide macro economic policy with easy monetary conditions. Production somewhat weak but trend in economy is unchanged, personal consumption is picking up.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki says Japan economic recovery is intact despite the weakness in production. End of deflation is still in sight.

US Treasury's Clay Lowery says no discussion of FX expected and G8. G8 allies understand US Treasury Henry Paulson is too busy to attend.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen Budget comments. : NZ Tax Authority will increase audits of property purchases. Property Audits of property purchases may ease housing demand.

NZ Growth will ease next year on back of high RBNZ interest rates and high NZD slowing growth to 1.6% in year to March 2009 from 2.6% in year ending March 31 2008. High Kiwi is "placing significant stress" on the exporting sectors.

NZ Treasury sees FY07/08 Govt surplus at NZD6.327b, FY08/09 surplus at NZD6.431b. Sees March 07 GDP at +1.7%, Mar 08 at +2.6%. CPI for 2008 at 2.7%, 2009 at +2.4%.

Relatively quiet day again, with market players still digesting the stronger USD moves overnight, which saw EUR, AUD coming under selling pressure, and USD/JPY hitting fresh 2-half month highs.

Hearing talks that Asian Cbs, China,were very good sellers at highs in EURUSD, EUR/JPY and triggering stoploss on downside on Wed, and could still be looking to sell more on rallies and offer. EUR/USD offerw now at 1.3550-60, other Sovereign, Russian bids at 1.35 handle, while stoploss orders are placed on break of 1.35 handle.

Focus in Asia on Japan GDP, BoJ decision, Governor Toshihiko Fukui. USD/JPY rallied to highs of 120.83 highs from 120.70 immediately after the Q1 GDP came in at a softer +0.6%, versus market expectation of +0.7%.

It then hit fresh 2-half mth highs of 120.88, high since Feb 26 high of 121.07, but topside capped by talks of very good options, Asian offers ahead of 121.00 handle, options barriers, k-o and expiries, with more than >$200-300m stops above.

USD/JPY unchanged post BoJ unchanged decision, with focus on Fukui. Intereting talks of Asian CBs, Korean, China, Taiwan accounts selling USD/JPY, with talks of the Asian CBs having intervened in their local units, with KRW/JPY having hit fresh 9 and half year highs.

NZD steady after NZ budget, with talks of real money, momentum funds still buying dips. AUD/USD remains under pressure after overnight selling, but US Investment houses buying dips 0.8330-50, and interest still to buy AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY on dips after the overnight selloff, with market still cautious of any JPY Carry trade unwinding.

Nikkei -0.14% or 23pts at 17,505. JGBs firmer after "weaker" GDP, eye BoJ Fukui. 10-yr yield -0.035% at 1.625%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.69/120.88, EUR/USD 1.3516/1.3532, GBP/USD 1.9760/1.9784, USD/CHF 1.2222/1.2233, AUD/USD 0.8235/0.8270, NZD/USD 0.7318/0.7343.

Syd 05:56 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm, yes I know been watching in the shite good and proper :-)))))


China Interest Rate Hike "Imminent" - MS

As China's investment growth still not slowing, rate hike likely, says Morgan Stanley, after government data show January-April urban fixed-asset investment growth quickened to 25.5% on year (vs 25.3% January-March). "The latest statistics confirm that economic activity remains heated in China, and means that we stand by our expectation of another imminent hike in interest rates," it says, without giving time-frame

madrid mm 05:45 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
...Syd if you are there ,
-Spain housing market might be on the brink of collape
-Bank of Spain might have sold a big chunk of its gold reserve
-corruption is flagrant in real estate and other parts of the economy
-etc.

But at least a Spanish team won the EUFA cup !! phewwwwww..I nearly gave up on Spain.. And because of that win, Euro/usd to 1.45 before the year and euro/yen to 175....My Funnymental analysis.

LOL

Alaska Moon 05:42 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Here is a good one to think about !! LOL
=============
I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've
lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to
take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed
over and over and over again in my life. And that is
why I succeed."
Michael Jordan

madrid mm 05:35 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi,

"Winners never quit and quitters never win." - Anon

Bangkok bkk 05:29 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD is very fragile. Downside risk to me. Looking to sell on rally... IMHO.

CANBERRA JD 05:26 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Seatbelts on for the next aud/usd leg boys... Gonna love it.

Bangkok bkk 05:21 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Julian, I like your post. It's funny but so true sometime. Not every info we can release to gen'l public.

GL. & GT.

----------------------------------------------------------
LDN Julian Symmons 04:18 GMT May 17, 2007
pittsburgh pa 02:52 GMT May 17, 2007
Anyone have any thoughts on where the Usd/Jpy will be at.. by the end of the week?

Yes. We know to the tick but cannot release such info to gen'l public.

Syd 04:30 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Dollar Setting Up For Bullish Move
LINK

hk ab 04:26 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you still maintain the view 630 is inevitable now given 663 broke and closed under?

LDN Julian Symmons 04:18 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh pa 02:52 GMT May 17, 2007
Anyone have any thoughts on where the Usd/Jpy will be at.. by the end of the week?

Yes. We know to the tick but cannot release such info to gen'l public.

Syd 04:08 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan's economic growth rate slowed sharply in the first quarter due mostly to a slump in investment, but consumption remained strong, keeping alive expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates later this year. Gross domestic product grew 0.6% from the previous quarter after adjusting for price changes, or 2.4% in annualized terms - the ninth consecutive quarter of growth. The overwhelming majority of analysts and traders expect that the BOJ, which last raised the overnight call rate in February, will keep at 0.5% at its board meeting. But they also expect that despite signs of weakness in business investment, BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui, at his regular press conference starting at 0630 GMT, may signal the bank is still leaning toward lifting rates over time. Capital expenditure "isn't booming, but rather leveling off," so the central bank will likely increase rates in the fourth quarter, said Akio Yoshino, an economist at Societe Generale Asset Management. "Despite the downturn in the manufacturing sector, the Japanese economy will be able to demonstrate high growth for the coming quarters," underpinned by the non-manufacturing sector, he said. The dollar rose slightly against the yen and Japanese government bond prices also rose, though their moves were small. "This is positive for the Bank of Japan in terms of a future rate hike, although there won't be much of a short-term impact for the dollar/yen," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ senior dealer Masashi Kurabe.


hk ab 03:58 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR//I am interested to open some shorts in dlr/jpy today. But if you flag good signal on the strength of this pair, I will withdraw it. :P....

New term: PAR's yen effect.

(It's not to offend,but I found PAR's message often helps us to push dlr/jpy higher). Indeed, some of my trades are based on that.

Sofia mik 03:39 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:26 GMT May 16, 2007
where you read for this test ,pls?

Melbourne Qindex 03:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market will test 1.3494.

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is working on the barrier of 1.3503 // 1.3525*.


3-Day Cycle Reference : ... 1.3435 - 1.3465* - 1.3480 - 1.3503 // 1.3525* - 1.3555 - 1.3570 - 1.3585* - [1.3615] - 1.3645* - 1.3660 - 1.3675 - 1.3705* // 1.3728 - 1.3750 - 1.3765* - 1.3795 ...

Melbourne Qindex 03:08 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market will test 1.2497.

Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3563. Speculatve selling pressure will increase if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through a projected supporting level of 1.3462 - 1.3467.

pittsburgh pa 02:52 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any thoughts on where the Usd/Jpy will be at.. by the end of the week?

Melbourne Qindex 01:48 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The distribution profile of weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the odds are in favor of taking a long position for the upper trading range of 1.1179 - 1.1192 (see graphic presentation in my website) when the market is trading above 1.1057.

Melbourne Qindex 01:41 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle charts 1.1057 is a resistant point. The distribution profile of weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the odds are in favor of taking a long position for the upper trading range of 1.1179 - 1.1192 (see graphic presentation in my website). The center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.1008] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.1062 // 1.1076. The expected range from a medium term view is 1.0610 - 1.1179 and the midpoint reference is 1.0895. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0895 // 1.0966 - 1.1037 - 1.1084 // 1.1179.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0899 - 1.0918* - 1.0927 - 1.0940 // 1.0954* - 1.0972 - 1.0981 - 1.0990* - [1.1008] - 1.1026* - 1.1035 - 1.1044 - 1.1062* // 1.1076 - 1.1089 - 1.1099* - 1.1117 ...

Syd 01:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan Ota Says Econ Recovery In Place

Japan Economy Minister Ota says country's economic recovery on track, though monitoring of capex, which slumped 0.9% in January-March period, would be necessary. But notes "it's too early to say the trend of capital investments has changed", suggesting capex may pick up in coming months. Adds deflation near end, though not over yet as deflator recorded minus 0.2%, much better than market forecast; also says consumption recovering while wage growth still weak. Economists share similar view, saying if wage rises faster, Japan consumers may speed up their spending

Atlanta South 00:42 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
HalifxCB
Working fine, but have several questions. See current em
for those questions. Tks & gt.

Rye,NY et 00:28 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
LA TGV 00:13 GMT May 17, 2007
Sorry...dailies...BTW...these lines are harder to see on conventional charts. I use proprietary charts that are specially designed for Trendline Analysis...
Good Trades...

LA TGV 00:13 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Rye. What time frame chart is that?

Rye,NY et 00:09 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...
Rye,NY et 21:22 GMT May 3, 2007
Yesterday, the market closed below Trendline Support...The Short-term bias shifts, temporarily, to the downside...GL/GT
---------------------------------------------------------
In terms of Trendline Analysis, I have very strong T/L Support today at 1.3498. If that level holds, then the Pullback is over and the market will return to the Short-term Uptrend. I would expect a bounce from that level today...
-----
Also, a bit further out, my arithmetic suggests that the market could be in the process of forming yet another Double Top--the breach of the All-time High would be the left peak of that pattern...time, of course, will tell....Keep an eye on 1.3498...All, as usual, imvho...GL/GT

Gen dk 00:02 GMT May 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

 




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