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Forex Forum Archive for 05/18/2007

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Gen dk 20:12 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 19:38 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
COT
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

g/we/all

Hou DK 17:23 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Options should be Jun 8 exp..

Kaunas DP 17:21 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:55 GMT May 18, 2007
Hearing some big 120.50 , 120.25 and 119.90 yen options being protected in NY by some major hedge fund .

are these magic options gone after todays NY session or will we face them next week as well - TIA

GVI john 17:18 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Be sure to check out the selected services for Forex Trading from Global-View.com.

dc CB 17:16 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:09 GMT May 18, 2007
dc CB 15:53 GMT May 18, 2007

CAD

Halifax CB 17:09 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:53 GMT May 18, 2007

Thx, i couldn't rememebr that name (Amaranth). Seems Cdn's are genertically programmed to cook up bad deals on nat. gas...
Yu're riht, quite something, $/CAD; while taking Fib levels off the weeklies (for example) and using the priors during the descent from 1.6+ would seem to indicate the next big target around 1.03, or less. Looked like it might be slowing, but maybe not, after all.

Sofia mik 17:08 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 17:01
look pls , xxxcad crosses ,I no see a bottom for a months ahead.

dc CB 17:07 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
fyi
Canadian markets off monday...Victoria Day

Geneva 17:01 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:37 GMT May 18, 2007

This move look like 5 of 3 of 5, a corection to 1.11, then final leg to 1.04/1.05 as a long term bottom.

Sofia mik 16:56 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 16:37
I
cad usd 0.92xx-0.82xx=usd1.08-1.22
n/e wnd!

GENEVA DS 16:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
cad target for next few month is 0.85..... some in this forum see 0.85 for CAD/USD...... your choice

GENEVA DS 16:35 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
closing in AUDJPY over 100 00 on weekly gives 125... stops in AUDUSD at 8275.... stops in USDJPY at 12160-12220... stops in GOLD at 667.-----

GENEVA DS 16:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
good buyers for gold and related currencies out of asia and some big american investment banks.... gl gt

San Juan Lil 16:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Hello everone!
ZEUS, just curious, do you have a target for that CAD rally??
tia

Cali mmm 16:32 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Good weekend to all!

jkt-aye 16:02 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
mahmood ... hope all the best for you. cheers

dc CB 15:53 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:39 GMT May 18, 2007
dc CB 13:38 GMT May 18, 2007

Nat Gas trading seems to put a hurting on quite a few...remember Amaranth.

how about that CAD :)

Halifax CB 15:39 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 13:38 GMT May 18, 2007
Good article. BTW, on the downside looks like BMO shot itself in the foot re. commodities this year, and lost a few toes in the process...

jkt-aye 15:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
NYAM 14:28 ... many thanks

Zeus 14:34 ... let see if the goose bite me on 1.0810. gtgl

GENEVA JFO 15:35 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
hihi guys,
1.3520-30 shld be a good chance to sell eur/usd and see 1.3420 next week.

Have a nice one.....

LDN Mahmood 15:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
That magic calulator ... the avr.price on usd/cad now at 1.0929, I want one! Rembering the quote "The trend is your friend until it's about to end". That micro account is running out of ammunition LOL!

Syd 15:18 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Omi: Talked Forex With German Fin Min
POTSDAM, Germany (Dow Jones)--Japan's finance minister said Friday he discussed currency rates with his German counterpart at a bilateral meeting, but the German minister didn't appear concerned about the euro's strength.

"That wasn't the way it seemed," Koji Omi told reporters after the meeting, when asked if German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck expressed concern about the euro's record-breaking rise against the yen recently.

On China's widening of its currency trading band, Omi said the move is "highly welcome", but added that he would like even more flexibility in the yuan's trading framework.



London NYAM 14:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Yahoo-head: "10:30 am : As if the market wasn't already exuding enough confidence, a recent report citing rising stock prices as a reason behind improved sentiment has lifted the major averages to session highs"
A lit of Soros' reflexivity at work here. Round and around...bang your head.

Dublin Flip 14:53 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
JD geared investment isn't just aimed into intrest rate markets. e.g. the most profitable carry trade of all was when majority of the worlds capital was sucked into US equities and geared up on Yen in the ninties.
Similarly while Australia may have 1% intrest differential that is pointed to by the daily FX marketwraps it's the stockmarket has been a prime beneficiary. In the past couple of years Australia (and Germany) have been the stand outperformers (and the currencies have been a symptom) while the USD and stocks have lagged and the worst performer of all Japan's nikkei and yen. I would think it will take the stock markets to top-out for the carry trade beneficiaries to come significantly lower under profit-taking.

London NYAM 14:51 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
It’s a bit presumptuous to know the feelings of traders. Playing unwinds and playing corrections may align underlying bias but are not irreconcilable with profiting in this market.

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:40 GMT May 18, 2007

Hi OEE......
Wish you all the best....many thanks....have a great w/e.

Makassar Alimin 14:43 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
nice comeback by yen pairs, agree with DS, this must be a frustrating time for those playing for carry trade unwinding

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:40 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Japan Fin Min Omi met German Fin Min in Potsdam, says FX should reflect fundamentals, says German Fin Min not worried about EURJPY

Bodrum OEE 14:40 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain

Bahrain1,

Good to see you. I hope all is well

I leave wishing all a happy weekend.

Kind regards



CANBERRA JD 14:39 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
aud has upset me. Its been said there will be no rate raises... Thus the market should settle back into its range below 8000... Unfortunately, its a hard nut to crack,and signs of it going up next week are depressing me.

Melbourne Qindex 14:34 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are [1.0610] - 1.0681 - 1.0705* - 1.0752 - 1.0800 - 1.0823 - 1.0895* // 1.0966

Bodrum OEE 14:34 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
I do not know about a sell of yet (those who follow this pen possibly noticed a conscious effort not to use definitive words, still) it is almost unbelievable how a group of politicians took their great nation and country Japan into a silly looking picture.

Shame and people will remember this..

Even changing a pacifist constitution or a permanent seat at the United Nations (read my writing, it will not happen under the current lay out) is not an honorable of a target at world’s cost.

Oh yes of course, I beg your pardon, University of Michigan sentiment was positive, therefore let the pyramid scheme resume (safely?).

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
New USD/CAD cost 1.0929. Full allocation now.
Stop set 1.0629. Otherwise will enjoy a rally.
cheers!

CANBERRA JD 14:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
dangerous zeus.. I will change your name to dangerous dave.

Melbourne Qindex 14:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.0895.

USA Zeus 14:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
All in on USD/CAD Double down 1.0890

London NYAM 14:28 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Back in the market 238.97 short GBP/JPY

jkt-aye 14:19 GMT May 18, 2007// I don't know whether it will be the big unwind (prob not) more likely second test. Some unwind after a weekend of uncertainty building for those holding over the weekend thinking this was a great buy back in opportunity. All the crosses vs Yen have a 5 wave down profile (ie yen strengthen move today was impulsive) There will be another leg after this bounce and it will also be in 5 waves but whether it unroals in a nasty triangle or a full blown dump wil probably depend on the G8 Japanese comments and/or Chinese markets behaviour early Monday. IMHO.

madrid mm 14:27 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:24 GMT May 18, 2007

you never know....8-)

madrid mm 14:27 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD dipped further to as low as 1.0901, break through prior 30 years low of 1.0930.

GENEVA DS 14:24 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
forex and financial world are still all waiting for big reversal to happen in stocks, carry, jpy , chf..... it will probably not happen for a very long time to come... hard time for contrarians,,,, SUPER time for trend followers... good weekend to all....

jkt-aye 14:19 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
NYAM ... would like to hear your opinion on Bahrain1 13:44. tia

CANBERRA JD 14:16 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
grrrrr

nothing really happened whilst i was awy.

melbourne DC 14:10 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
usd resistance 82.40 1.2280 1.3465

NY tim 14:06 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
my bet is USD/JPY will close below 121 today and below 120 next friday - take care all

hk revdax 14:05 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday's $ top vs YEN, CHF has remained intact while against Euro has been breached a bit. IMO...it will continue to be this way for the balance of today's trading session.

London NYAM 14:04 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
should read 238.80/85 price now

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:01 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
The May U of Michigan confidence indicator is stronger at 88.7 from 87.1 against expectations for drop to 86.2.

London NYAM 14:01 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
239.80/85 Should cap this rebound in GBPJPY then we should see another turn.

Global-View 13:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
jb, check your email

beirut jb 13:48 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi Traders

for those who were not here yesterday late I post again this :

well i didnt post here lately often but it's just to thanks Jay


i had a pb with censored, he tried his best to help me
but we didnt have any result , at least for now


what I think after 4 years experience that we need badly a broker made by trader for traders

GVI very pro they should do it,

evry day we watch here somone having pb with his broker:

slipage,permium,unabilty to pass an order in fast move market,,margin , server freezing etc,,,


it's realy a miss , i did try so far many of them

they cost me a lot, no one is perfect so far not even close

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys good day to you all........
Sell all the crosses against the YEN on rallies....think Monday might be a BIG day for carry trades selling. take care and GOOD luck to you all. See you Monday.

dc CB 13:38 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
may be of interest to CADiites

Buy Canadian

jkt-aye 13:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 13:21 ... yes, i'm ready for that. it's ok for me to give back some what i got from it. gtgl

Como Perrie 11:49 ... i need to learn more your " sleep well oriented trading style ". cheers

Makassar Alimin 13:24 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
hi FM, there is something I want to discuss with you, may I get your contact detail from Jay?

USA Zeus 13:21 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 13:14 GMT May 18, 2007

Use caution here- am hoping for 1 more push lower today then will go all in. May or may not get it. Let's see...
GT! :-)

jkt-aye 13:14 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus...let me join again :)

London NYAM 13:12 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Amnticipation of Another 'bull' day at the US stock market giving the correction of this morning action some backing. How will the US markets end the day? Opportunity to play the next leg down on USDJPY and GBPJPY i suspect.

USA Zeus 13:08 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
New ave USD/CAD cost = 1.0967.
Ready for 1 last position for a full allocation then will set the stop.

PAR 12:55 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Hearing some big 120.50 , 120.25 and 119.90 yen options being protected in NY by some major hedge fund .

London NYAM 12:51 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
FM//4hr chart reverts to traditional tech markers. Too early to count the 4hr wavelets must go smaller time frame to see this one out.The 120.50-60 barrier will cause problems but once broken it opens up 119.50 support level. Will get back if anything pops out but break looks genuine.

Lahore FM 12:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:35 GMT May 18, 2007
it has made the turn NYAM,how does 4 hour chart read with e-wave now?tia.

USA Zeus 12:41 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Bought USD/CAD 1.0917

London NYAM 12:35 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
"S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.3. �Early indications suggest stocks will bounce back from yesterday's breather as it seems the market sees a fresh buying opportunity every time it takes a breather. " Yahoo news
Now thats a great reason to buy. I suppose this news source is what it says on the can.

Como Perrie 12:32 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Cad retail sales up 1.9 pct

Mtl JP 12:25 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:03 / like compensating for small peniz syndrome by driving one such puppy. It says me first, I don't give a fwk about the planet.

On the flipside: Murdoch's plan to take News Corp. carbon neutral by 2010. It consists of three parts: 1) News Corp. will reduce its consumption of energy as much as possible; 2) they will switch to alternative "green" energies where it is feasible; and 3) as an absolute last resort they will offset those carbon emissions that they can not eliminate with carbon offset credits.

hk ab 12:23 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
RP//ANy chance for your 750 route starts today?

London NYAM 12:16 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Lots of UK house data coming on Monday morning.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:12 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
1st sign is if R1.9713/15 not hold then R1.9724.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:09 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Cable/ As long as 1.9734 hold-->down. But if break and stay above-->1.9750/59/79.GT

madrid mm 12:03 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Rolls-Royce's new Phantom Drophead Coupe, 6.7 litre V12 engine, £325,000 ..... maybe one day 8-)

Sofia mik 11:59 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A correction in the U.S. housing market has been
significant, but is "near the bottom," according to U.S. Treasury Secretary
Henry Paulson.

London NYAM 11:58 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Thanks RIC and Livingston. Reverse schadenfreude in effect.
:{

RIC fxq 11:54 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:05 GMT

not traded but 23989/23993 on my platty @0411 ET. usually within a pip or two of EBS/Rtrs

Como Perrie 11:49 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
This early US seession is going to be an interesting one. Markets are getting more risk cautious and the debt/cancer ratio is growing world-wide. G8 etc. No big ideas so am small risk distributed and covered with options in case of anything, but am not betting on It just a sleep well oriented trading style.

Have a nice w/e, will be off after this friday US opening for a long week end busy around.

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:24 GMT May 18, 2007

But It's going to be interesting, particularly if oil crushes the 80 level in the weeks/months ahead.

GVI john 11:40 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/18/2007 10:14	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3494	121.26	1.2259	1.9722	1.0945	0.6841	163.65
High	1.3513	121.39	1.2281	1.9778	1.1001	0.6847	163.9
Low	1.3481	121.19	1.2246	1.9713	1.0932	0.6826	163.47
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3527	120.77	1.2175	1.9747	1.0980	0.6829	162.98
10 day	1.3532	120.40	1.2153	1.9777	1.1010	0.6812	162.45
20 day	1.3571	119.95	1.2101	1.9843	1.1059	0.6808	162.21
50 day	1.3457	118.93	1.2107	1.9710	1.1329	0.6794	159.35
100 day	1.3255	119.41	1.2223	1.9602	1.1516	0.6727	157.62
200 day	1.3053	118.43	1.2274	1.9303	1.1394	0.6727	154.04

London NYAM 11:40 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Yeap stopped out at 239.85 3 pips from the high.

Como Perrie 11:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   

UK Alex 11:24 GMT May 18, 2007

I would love US and Japan do the same this year somewhere.

UK Alex 11:24 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Ahe// China is closing the gap between the lending and deposit rates bringing the real savings rate back into positive territory.

Como Perrie 11:24 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Bonds issued by foreign speculators in NZD – the “EuroKiwi” and “Uridashi” bonds pumped out by Frankfurt and Tokyo investment banks looking for free profits in march totaled NZ$55 billion. That’s equal to one-third of New Zealand’s GDP

madrid mm 11:21 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
update your diary 8-)

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- China said it would allow faster gains in the yuan, four days before talks with the U.S. over a record trade surplus that has strained ties with its trading partners.

The central bank also raised interest rates to the highest in more than eight years and ordered banks to set aside more reserves, according to statements on its Web site.

The suite of measures is aimed at tempering the export-led expansion that is causing the economy to overheat and led to calls for trade sanctions against China by U.S. lawmakers. Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson meet May 22-24 in Washington.

Gen dk 11:14 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 11:07 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Well Bob- trap set but bait not taken on USD/CAD- So steady as it goes for now unless we see lower, much lower for some great positioning.

Meanwhile looking at EUR and GBP- the USD camp grows and grows...interesting how that works.

Happy Day!

London NYAM 11:05 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have traded high on GBPJPY this morning. I will be crying if my stop got hit after this move. TIA

Gen dk 11:04 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 11:02 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Oil prices are near 70 usd in London currently, around 40 pct since up from mid-January levels.

melbourne DC 11:00 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
eur lg 10:50gmt (GVI)
u r a european dealer? similar comments being qouted by fx commentary.
such micro-steps can burn day traders/speculators , but investors would be no trouble. i m sure the chinese understands that n knows their intended target.

Como Perrie 10:59 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
White House to quickly replace Wolfowitz

Como Perrie 10:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Japnese Economy Minister Ota said, expects BOJ to help government achieve end of deflation

madrid mm 10:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
FX news from the PBOC initially centered on the USD/CNY trading band. The Chinese central bank has confirmed that with effect from May 21st (Monday) the new USD/CNY trading band will stand at 0.5%. The previous band was 0.3% but when you consider non-USD Yuan pairs are allowed to fluctuate by 3.0% on a daily basis the move no-longer looks as impressive.

Market participants had looked for the band to be widened to 1.0% or even 1.5% so the move itself may mark little more than a token gesture from the PBOC and signal that they do intend on moving to a free-Yuan down the line.

In other news the PBOC has hiked both reserve requirements and key lending and deposit rates in tandem. The benchmark lending rate has increased by 0.18% while 1-Year deposit rates have increased by 0.27%, with effect from May 19th (Tomorrow). The reserve requirement increase is not due to take effect until June 5th.

The moves are expected to "improve flexibility in the Yuan exchange rate" according to the statement on the PBOC website (www.pbc.gov.cn).

Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 1.9672 // 1.9700.

Melbourne Qindex 10:53 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle charts 1.0990 is a resistant point. The market is heading towards the extreme trading range of 1.0855 - 1.0922 (see graphic presentation in my website). The center of the 3-day cycle projected series is located at [1.0965] and the lower barrier is positioning at 1.0828 // 1.0855*. The expected range from a medium term view is 1.0610 - 1.1179 and the midpoint reference is 1.0895. The current expected trading ranges are 1.0895 // 1.0966 - 1.1037 - 1.1084 // 1.1179.


3-Day Cycle : ... 1.0746 - 1.0782* - 1.0801 - 1.0828 // 1.0855* - 1.0892 - 1.0910 - 1.0929* - [1.0965] - 1.1002* - 1.1020 - 1.1038 - 1.1075* // 1.1102 - 1.1129 - 1.1148* - 1.1184 ...

Hong Kong Ahe 10:45 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:37 GMT Yes, Dont equate JPY=CNY and BOJ=CHINA CENTRAL BANK

Calcutta Vikram 10:45 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Sorry....HIGH of AUD-USD today.

TIA

melbourne DC 10:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
sry 4 mess . but there should be more coming.

Calcutta Vikram 10:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Any one with the AUD-USD today?
TIA.

melbourne DC 10:44 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
20:41 *DJ China To Raise Deposit, Lending Rates From Saturday
18 May 2007
2007051810410006 20:41 DJ MARKET TALK: Euro Money Mkt: O/N Rates A Tick Lower
18 May 2007
2007051810410004 20:41 *DJ China To Raise Benchmark One-Yr Deposit Rate By 27BPs
18 May 2007
2007051810410003 20:41 DJ CORRECT: Andhra Pradesh Chief Min Is Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy
18 May 2007
2007051810400015 20:40 *DJ Russian Customs: May Pursue Bk Of New York's Foreign Assets
18 May 2007
2007051810400010 20:40 *DJ China To Raise Benchmark One-Yr Lending Rate By 18 BPs
18 May 2007
2007051810400002 20:40 DJ MARKET TALK: Hungary Curr Acct Gap Forecast Too Optimistic
18 May 2007
2007051810400001 20:40 DJ Sicom Rubber Futures Settlement Prices, May 18
18 May 2007
2007051810390004 20:39 DJ MARKET TALK: JPY Rallies On Widening Of CNY's USD Band
18 May 2007
2007051810390002 20:39 *DJ China Raises Benchmark Lending, Deposit Rates

London NYAM 10:43 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Today?

madrid mm 10:41 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
does that mean carry trade go into Yuan ? 8-)

PAR 10:40 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
When will BOJ change their trading band ?

London NYAM 10:39 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Great timing of that release. See the 4 and 8 hour charts for the bounce of USDJPY off that resistance. I wonder if BoJ isnt considering that a stronger JPY might actually be in Japans best interests.

London JBS 10:39 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
CHINA CENTRAL BANK SAYS TO RAISE BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS
CHINA CENTRAL BANK SAYS RAISES INTEREST RATES

melbourne DC 10:38 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
china rate hike n reserve increase

madrid mm 10:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
I can t even eat in peace !!! lol 8-)

UK Alex 10:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
No need to rush for the exits then. Carry trade is as safe as it ever was.

Melbourne Qindex 10:36 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : Heading Towards 2.1478

The Netherlands Purk 10:34 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Ah that 16318 again, see if it is a hurd....

melbourne DC 10:32 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
20:31 *DJ Non-USD/CNY Pairs Trading Band Remains Unchanged At 3%
18 May 2007
2007051810300024 20:30 *DJ China To Widen USD/CNY Trading Band From May 21

PAR 10:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
China announces widening of USDCNY trading band.

melbourne DC 10:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
20:28 *DJ China Announces Widening Of USD/CNY Trading Band

London JBS 10:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
CHINA CENBANK SAYS TO WIDEN YUAN-DOLLAR BAND

Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:14 GMT May 18, 2007
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9686.

Melbourne Qindex 03:49 GMT May 18, 2007
GBP/USD : When the market is below the barrier at 1.9853 // 1.9928 my bias is on the downside.

Melbourne Qindex 03:45 GMT May 18, 2007
GBP/USD : If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.9702, the next targeting level is 1.9552.

Melbourne Qindex 01:37 GMT May 18, 2007
GBP/USD : 1.9734 is a significant level.

Melbourne Qindex 01:32 GMT May 18, 2007
GBP/USD : 1.9715 is going to be tested.

HK SA 10:28 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
JPY news?

PAR 10:17 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
With deteriorating japanese economy it will probably be japanese finance minister Omi last visit to G8 . So no need for new communique, just copy the previous one, which is a copy of ... Thats why we pay taxes . Lol.

New Brighton gvm 10:06 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:55 GMT May 18, you have obviously never lived in Japan nor do you seem to know too much about it's politics - LDP losing elections extremely unlikely

GVI john 09:54 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Check out our wide range of tools for Forex Trading from Global-View.com. Most are free!

Cali mmm 09:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. Will keep a close look. Rgds.

Lahore FM 09:28 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 09:04 GMT May 18, 2007
it is trending lower.advantageous shorts can be entered higher. it is a bit low to enter new positions.

London NYAM 09:16 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Position squaring might put paid o any hopes of additional USDJPY advances seeing as it has also completed a decent patterning and stalled against the 121.35-45 barrier mentioned earlier. This might of course, go too far with spillovers possible.
Glad to have been wrong on cable call.

Cali mmm 09:04 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Good morning to all. FM, can you share a target for gbp/usd at this point ? Do you think is still a good short at these levels? TKS !

The Netherlands Purk 09:02 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Loonie on the way to new low. Only e/u 13400 can save it from the poised (FM) 10888....

Bodrum OEE 09:01 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:52 GMT May 18, 2007
Syd 06:30 GMT May 18, 2007
Syd 02:42 GMT May 18, 2007
Syd 00:35 GMT May 18, 2007 (otherwise country is loosing credibility and respect)

Good day to you all.

PAR 08:55 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
With japanese economy weakening quickly LDP probably going to loose the japanese july elections which could mean Abe out of a job .

Como Perrie 08:55 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Or any double digital knock outs structuring - more complex and expensive so far.

Como Perrie 08:53 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Interesting UsdJpy is dealing with december's 2005 highs here, might hold might not but worth a put opt imo.

GENEVA DS 08:52 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
gold breaks up yet again, technicals short, traders short, investors missed to buy yet again... interesting day ahead... gl gt

Como Perrie 08:39 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Usdcad recovred back into It's 50s too, with some profits more than buyers down there most probaly very active in the 30s. Am taking a pause into US. Not a trading day for me today so far, just larger views.

Como Perrie 08:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Yeap this push lower on cable seems tough. I'll see as am very ample on larger views.

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
UK retail sales down 0.1 percent against expected rise of 0.4 percent.

Syd 08:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Growing Wary Over EUR's Rise?

The EUR isn't being helped by suggestions that eurozone officials might finally be growing wary of its advance. As UBS notes, the EUR/USD traded down to a low of 1.3477 "helped by comments from Eurogroup's Juncker in Le Monde, who said that further gains in the EUR would need to be watched for consistency with fundamentals."

Como Perrie 08:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Am small long cable as from yesterday too Par and will stay so most probably trough the data smog if any. Btw do have the impression that this late nyc usdjpy might follow south too, but will not touch It most probably, just a small hedge in case over the w/e anything hints onto carry trades, maybe an option covering the G8 risks.

LDN Mahmood 08:28 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad down again. Soon Jon will be telling everyone his new avr.price low, its amazing what calculators can do. Zeusi is a fake.

PAR 08:26 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Looking for blockbuster UK retail sales .

Como Perrie 08:25 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Am going to leave some sell kiwi limits .7309 and .7372 if seen too on the other side of the usd bashing seen last hour.

The Netherlands Purk 08:22 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Just keep on seeing things negative there Perry and you will exactly get what you speak for.... Think we need a 100 people being positive to ruin your day..

Taking a first short bugger here...

Como Perrie 08:19 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
South Florida is in an 18-month drought, and signs of the problem are everywhere -- from the links to the nursery and sugar cane industries.

Como Perrie 08:17 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
UsdCad gets interesting with series of smaller intermediate supports ahead of the stronger level at 1.0870

The Netherlands Purk 08:17 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Pattern in loonie did not change i see. Let us see where we can long today. Be careful, because 10888 can be in the cards...
Bugger: 16400-16425-16445. Let us see. Have the feeling that something is cooking here.

Como Perrie 08:01 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 07:45 GMT May 18, 2007
You shd start with a real mini for what I see.

Como Perrie 07:59 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Maybe will sell the kiwi on a clear breach of the .7250/40 key suppot if seen later on.

Gen dk 07:56 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:56 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
In less than one hour we do have the UKs retail sales coming out.
Consensus is 0.5 MoM, 4.6 YoY. Later on onto the US opening we do have also the Canada's retail sales MoM, with a consensus lower into 0.7 MoM from previous at 1 pct, while retail readings less autos are expected at 1.1 pct. I would not trade anything intraday most probably today and for several reasons, from technical to the G8 ministers that in a final statement on Saturday can also be expected to comment on world growth prospects and currency markets, even if markets seems to expect a repetition of the previous. Tend also to think datas to come enough in line today. So will just stick to smaller larger oriented trades holding an eye to metals, bonds, stocks and the yen related as the usdjpy decoupling.

Syd 07:49 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
The Australian dollar slumped to 11-day lows in Asia Friday extending a week-long retreat fanned by falling expectations of a hike in interest rates in 2007. Unwinding of carry trades ahead of a Group of Eight meeting over the weekend also added downward pressure on the local currency, analysts said. Government bond prices weakened in line with a dip in U.S. Treasurys overnight on news of an unexpected drop in U.S. initial jobless claims.

CANBERRA JD 07:45 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Interesting, took profit on e/u g/u longs and am looking at another e/u long.

Syd 07:21 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
China's forex regulator says it's found some irregularities in trade, investment flows, as result of probe of 10 coastal provinces and cities. Probe, which looked at forex inflows, settlement between January 2006 to end-March this year aimed at strengthening oversight, curbing impact of short-term flows. SAFE says large growth in country's forex reserves having "certain impact" on stability of economy, next step to keep cracking down on irregular flows. Latest comments indicate policymakers concerned that large inflows undermining tightening moves to curb onshore liquidity, contain investment, inflation.

Melbourne Qindex 07:18 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD :Heading Towards 1.4688.

Como Perrie 07:16 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Newmont’s Australia and New Zealand gold mining operations saw their overall first quarter production costs rise from $384 per ounce to $519 and the company’s flagship operations in Nevada’s Carlin Gold Belt aren’t faring much better.

GENEVA DS 07:04 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
madrid...

yes indeed... i am looking for their email address....

madrid mm 07:03 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 06:28 GMT May 18, 2007

i wish they could allow me to trade 1 bio of theirs ...8-)

Melbourne Qindex 07:03 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy after 1.0966 fails to hold.

Syd 07:00 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
China FX Regulator:To Curb Impact Of Short-Term Cap Inflows
China: Some Irregularities Exist In Trade, Invest Flows
China: Forex Reserve Growth Has Affected Econ Stability

Syd 06:52 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, is concerned that financial markets aren't taking account of the risk of a possible disorderly unwinding of global imbalances in countries' current accounts, according to an interview in the Financial Times Friday.

Naberaghnye Chelny abagan 06:52 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Ichu Marinu Vischnyakovu, Vy zdes

Lahore FM 06:49 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
jpy crosses suddenly under pressure again.

Plovdiv Gotin 06:46 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Cable: if 1.9759 hold we cud see 1.9710/00 today. If not and trading above--->1.9820 at least.GTay

GENEVA DS 06:33 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
may be Blackstone to buy some call Options in S&P500... ergo... SP rising then makes GBPJPY rising as it is correlated.. only a thought...

Syd 06:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Foreign Investment In Japan Property More Than Triples In '06

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Foreign investors purchased 13 billion dollars worth of real estate in Japan last year, up about 230% from 2005 and the most since such data became available in 2003, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., a major U.S. property services company.

GENEVA DS 06:28 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
madrid...

thanks for the news about Blackstone Group... just to know now , which Hedge Fund or Bank is getting the other 997 Bio USD to invest abroad.... GOOD trading to us all... my lord , think this could help currencies with good interest rates and eventually as well gold and oil... thanks

madrid mm 06:15 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
China Business News says China FX investment arm has launched its overseas investments by entrusting US private equity group Blackstone Group to invest $3bln overseas. - Reuters.

Wellington, N.Z. 06:13 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
The GBP/USD together with the Australasians (Ozzy & Kiwi)
are expected to provide the best trading opportunities Today.

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts go to
"TRL" under Forex Services (above).

Max McKegg

madrid mm 06:11 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

US Treasury Henry Paulson says, in PBS, that he keep trying to persuade China to let markets set the CNY value. US would still have large trade deficit with China even if CNY is fully set by the markets.

A bipartisan group of 42 US House lawmakers have filed a petition with the Bush Administration asking it to push China to raise value of CNY and correct what they call an unfair trade advantage. The petition also named Japan.

US House Ways and Means Committee Chair Charles Rangel says "The Time for talk has passed, we must end this unfair trade practice that cripples US industries and contributes to a staggering trade deficit between US and China."

Austrian Deputy Finmin Christoph Matznetter, speaker in Reuters interview, says high unemployment in Europe due to globalisaion and not due to CNY exchange rate.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says latest budget should prevent RBNZ from hiking. Non tradeables inflation a concern. Tight monetary policy and high NZD worsening external economic imbalances.

President George Bush has accepted World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz resignation.

China Business News says China FX investment arm has launched its overseas investments by entrusting US private equity group Blackstone Group to invest $3bln overseas. - Reuters.

LDP SecGen Hidenao Nakagawa says normalising interest rates should not be the sole purpose of BoJ monetary policy.

Japan's Econs Minister Prof Hiroko Ota says she expects BoJ to help the government achieve end of deflation.

Japan March Tertiary sector index -2.2%m/m.

WSJ: General Electric Co. is close to agreeing to sell its plastics division for nearly $11bn to Saudi Arabia's largest industrial company, Saudi Basic Industries Corp.

Italy's Capitalia and UniCredit to form Eurozone's largest bank.Quiet markets ahead of G8 meeting today, no fresh news likely, though as in all G7/G8 meeting, markets players will be cautious of any fresh insert into the FX communique and sideline comments.USD remaining firm after yesterday's rise.

USD/JPY around its 3-m highs of 121.37 seen yesterday, high since Feb 23 121.64 high, but capped by talks of options related and Japanese exporters, mega-city banks selling ahead of 121.50 triggers, stoploss above, and more triggers ahead of 122.00 handle. Bids at 121.00-10 for now.

EUR/USD remains under pressure, but supported by East Europeans, Russia bids at 1.3470-80, stops blw 1.3450, though will not be surprised to hear fresh real money, Sovereign buying, while offers are placed at 1.3520-50, could hear US funds and China offers.

EUR/CHF near all time highs 1.6570 yesterday (despite warnings from SNB officials). Market to watch any G7 carry trade warning.

NZD/USD, AUD heavy after overnight selling by hedge funds, little impact from NZ Cullen comments.

GBP/USD focus on UK retails sales, after dip in UK pay settlements, real money bids still 1.97 lows.

Nikkei -152pts or 0.87% at 17,345. JGBs a touch lower post BoJ Fukui yest, 10-yr yield +0.010% at 1.630%,

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.23/121.36, EUR/USD 1.3481/1.3498, GBP/USD 1.9737/1.9751, USD/CHF 1.2269/1.2281, AUD/USD 0.8208/0.8235, NZD/USD 0.7278/0.7310.

Syd 06:03 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
German Apr PPI +0.1% On Month, +1.6% On Year
German Apr PPI Was Seen +0.4% On Mo, +2.0% On Year
German Apr PPI Excluding Energy +2.9% On Year
German Apr Annual PPI Rate Lowest Since June 2004




madrid mm 05:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."- Walter Bagehot

madrid mm 05:56 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi,
A drop in consumer confidence later on at 16 gmt could raise talk that April's weak retail sales results may be repeated in May.....

Geneva 05:52 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Buying more dollar/Israel Shekel.

CANBERRA JD 05:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Lol.....I don't know what you're talking about :P

I am looking for a long g/u position and a long e/u position. Best bet on usd/chf short, but I am not trading that pair.....

manchester st 05:30 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 05:26 GMT May 18, 2007
mmm.you have been spending too much time at those infamous Canberra houses of ill repute ....stop it son...you will go blind..

CANBERRA JD 05:26 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
When I wake up in the morning love, and the sunlight hurts my eyes, I notice g/u and e/u slow, and a reversal in my mind...

philippines 05:14 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD is more on selling off up to 1.9700/1.9650 its more in the downside.
EUR/USD also in the downside trading range 1.35/10 and 1.3450/1.3400.

Melbourne Qindex 04:14 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9686.

Melbourne Qindex 03:49 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : When the market is below the barrier at 1.9853 // 1.9928 my bias is on the downside.

Melbourne Qindex 03:45 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.9702, the next targeting level is 1.9552.

Mtl JP 03:23 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:03 - we are seeing: Fukui laying.

hk ab 03:15 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
I have a gut feeling that if yen keeps weakening, a break of 122 will open up the sky 125 and will lead to japanese fear like the one in 2001.

Syd 03:03 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 02:45 we shall see

Mtl JP 02:45 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:35/ Fukui is lying. Japan machine orders sukked. Jap terciary index sukked too.. Fukui is talking through his hat.

Syd 02:42 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
China Govt Bonds Down On PBOC Zhou's Remarks

China government bond index down at 111.09, vs 111.16 previous close, after PBOC Governor Zhou said late yesterday that China won't rule out using any particular tool to curb money supply; remarks fueling rate hike concerns; "It is Friday today, and the central bank usually announces monetary policies over weekends, so some investors are selling their bonds," says Beijing- based trader with local bank; tips bond index in 111.00-111.10 range rest of session.

dc CB 02:07 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Re: today's weekly employment number (US). I'm not sure exactly and neither is the analyst on my brokers website who pointed this out...but...so the story goes...the number was low because of an anomoly introduced during Hurricaine Katrina and relating to employment in Puerto Rico that should have been a one time only deal but was not removed from the calculation but which then resulted in a lower weekly number than the actual number should have been if this anomoly had been discovered and removed as was originally intended, but not executed.

So the result...money was lost...money was gained...all in a days button pushing (buy/sell)

To me this all sounds very Japanese.

Melbourne Qindex 01:49 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : It is likely that the market will penetrate through 1.0966 which is a significant level.

Melbourne Qindex 01:47 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : It is a bad sign when the market is trading below 1.4869.

Melbourne Qindex 01:37 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : 1.9734 is a significant level.

Melbourne Qindex 01:32 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : 1.9715 is going to be tested.

Syd 01:08 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Art & Money: Bargain Hunting In The US Weak Dollar Lifts New York Auctions; Warhol, Rothko Up
With help from the weak U.S. dollar, rich collectors from Europe and Asia went on a shopping spree at the spring art auctions that conclude today in New York. Overall sales set a record, but American art lovers struggled on their home turf to outbid those laden with euros, pounds, yen and rubles.

The two chief auction houses, Sotheby's Holdings and Christie's International, brought in more than $1.43 billion combined over the past two weeks, up from $865 million last May. Christie's won the larger share, bringing in just over $750 million, compared with Sotheby's $682 million. The semiannual sale of Impressionist, modern and contemporary art ends today with Phillips de Pury & Co., which is expected to sell art estimated at up to $43 million.

Gen dk 00:57 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:35 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said Thursday that the bank might choose to raise interest rates even if the consumer price index stays below zero but other economic conditions warrant such a hike.

Syd 00:32 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 23:48 GMT May 17 yes many thanks for that

Syd 00:31 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Weak Japan Tertiary Index No Big Worry -BarCap


Weaker-than-expected Japan March tertiary index outcome "is not an issue," says Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida; fall mainly due to weakness in telecommunications, which has proven quite volatile in past, and in wholesale and retail sectors, which probably just backlash from last month's strong data. There're "no worries about overall consumption"; says services still strong, restaurants, hotels readings stable in 1Q. No FX reaction as data considered 2nd-tier.

Sydney ACC 00:20 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 23:48 GMT May 17, 2007
Fantastic post.

Sofia mik 00:05 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR you are right, BOJ must cut rates :)
Industry Activity Index -2.2

London NYAM 00:05 GMT May 18, 2007 Reply   
momentum needs to pick up for usdjpy on good news. if not confirmation if overbought in place. 121.35/45 my key resistance. failure is not an option for longs. usdjpy=121.28

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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