Forex Forum Archive for 05/19/2007

hk ab 17:25 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
RF//Despite the correction from 690 to 650, do you think the gold would go lower with the stock correction? 540 seems a bit ambitious to me especially bc recommendation to buy on 650 line now in play.

Think metals have long flagged the warning.

Melbourne Qindex 14:56 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 2.1300 - 2.1606. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the center of the weekly cycle series at [2.1760]. The downside targeting point is 2.1300. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [2.1531] and the lower barrier is located at 2.1353 // 2.1388 and the downside targeting point is 2.1293. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal lower limit at 2.1246. The market is negative when it is trading below the barrier at 2.1731 - 2.1880.


Daily Cycle : ... 2.1246 - 2.1293* - 2.1217 - 2.1353 // 2.1388* - 2.1436 - 2.1459 - 2.1483* - [2.1531] - 2.1578* - 2.1602 - 2.1625 - 2.1673* // 2.1709 -2.1744 - 2.1768* - 2.1815 ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:56 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : My view is negative when the market is trading below 1.4869 which is a significant level. The pattern of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that 1.4837 is the upside targeting point. The weekly cycle projected series indicates that 1.4764 // 1.4837 is a barrier and the normal weekly cycle lower limit is defined at 1.4546. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4546. The downside targeting points of my weekly cycle are 1.4255 and 1.4449. The center of the 3-day cycle projected series is positioning at [1.4567]. The normal lower limit is defined at 1.4238 and the lower barrier is located at 1.4361 // 1.4402*.


3-Day Cycle : ... 1.4238 - 1.4293* - 1.4320 - 1.4361 // 1.4402* - 1.4443 - 1.4457 - 1.4484 - 1.4512* - 1.4525 - [1.4567] - 1.4608 - 1.4621* - 1.4649 - 1.4676 - 1.4690 - 1.4731* // 1.4772 - 1.4813 - 1.4840* - 1.4895 ...

HK RF@ 05:57 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
The wild card China plays now against the US, is to what extent they may allow their currency to move.
So this is the factor of uncertainty now.

China manipulates it's currency and so it may do within the 0.5% band.

For 5 trading days a week it may allow it's currency to move between -3.5% to +3.5%, it all depends on what is good for China or what can they squeeze from the US.

The widening of the band is a simple message to the US and others. "Now we can be more generous, depends on the situation and at first if we like it or not".

If the Shanghai stock market will get the shock on Monday that is the next thing to watch.

That Mkt is anyway super-bubbled, and needs only a small shock for massive sales.
What may happen in that stock market and and it's wider effects will be another message to the US.

That with a bad chart for gold, which looks at a long term correction down to 530, can send a shock first to HKK and maybe to all Asian markets.




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Melbourne Qindex 05:23 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY (Weekly Cycle)  : The normal upper weekly cycle limit is defined at 115.07. The center of the projected series is positioning at [110.47] and the upper barrier is expected at 112.77 // 113.35. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 109.70* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 108.94. The lower barrier of the day cycle projected series is located at 110.29 // 110.48. The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above [111.23]. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above the normal daily cycle upper limit at 112.73.


Daily Cycle : ... 109.73 - 109.98* - 110.10 - 110.29 // 110.48* - 110.73 - 110.85 - 110.98* - [111.23] - 111.48 - 111.60 - 111.73 - 111.98* // 112.17 - 112.35 - 112.48* - 112.73 ...

Sofia mik 04:44 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
Highest and lowest CAN$/US$ rates during the period:
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Lowest (21/01/2002) Highest (21/08/1957)
$1 CAN = $0.6179 US
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($1 US = $0.9422 CAN)

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Melbourne Qindex 02:08 GMT May 19, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 108.69. The upside targeting range is 115.03 - 115.78. A barrier is expected at 113.54.