Forex Forum Archive for 05/20/2007

Syd 23:56 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
China Move Bearish For Spot Gold, Risk Appetite
[Dow Jones] China's decision to raise interest rates, allow for broader USD/CNY trading band will have bearish repercussions for base and precious metals, says Kitco analyst Jon Nadler. Analysts say combination of moves shows how seriously PBOC taking overheating concerns; move to cool economy to curb appetite for base metals, reduce global risk appetite, and in turn reduce investment in gold. Spot gold last trades at $662.80/oz, up $2.20 vs late Friday trade in NY.

Syd 23:54 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
China's more serious about tightening policy with Friday's steps likely to help U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson calm some protectionist claims of U.S. politicians, says BNP Paribas. Expects base metals to come under pressure which doesn't bode well for commodity currencies; also looks for some unwinding of carry trades. China allowing CNY to rise at faster pace, likely negative impact on stock market, in combination with weaker commodity prices, "suggests remaining bearish" AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY. Due to extreme positioning, EUR/JPY likely under pressure too. Selling-off yen cross rates and rising U.S. bond yields leave EUR/USD with no other choice than to correct lower, it adds; "we target 1.3375."

London M 23:38 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
nyc- thanks for ur view!

nyc just me 23:37 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
m - yes the usd will become weaker as it has been.

London M 23:29 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Kuwait Dinar decided to unpeg to USD, instead to move into the basket of currencies. What sort of movement do we have to expect from this decision? Do we expect a weaker USD because more middle east countries decide unpeg USD? tia

London NYAM 23:26 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB: GBP etc, yes up is more likely than down as the weight of longer term direction revisits. The idea that we are at a juncture ending now is ew wave 4 behaviour and mood across most pairs. Indecision with evntual final reversion to trend with late specs gunning for the moon. 122, 1.9999, 1.3650 and 1.0800 all vulnerable. But the vulnerability is fickle. glgt.

Lahore FM 23:22 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Rightmove UK house prices rose 0.4 percent for may month compared to 3.6 percent last month.the slowest increase in more than a year.

Syd 22:50 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Australia PM: Change Of Govt Will Affect Econ Policy Quality

The quality of economic management in Australia would deteriorate with any change of government, Prime Minister John Howard said Monday.

The Liberal-National Coalition government is well behind the opposition Labor Party in voter opinion polls, in part because of changes to labor laws.

"It's quite clear that the public after 11 years of this government is contemplating a change," he said in an interview on Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio.

But as the election nears, there will be a greater focus on the consequences of change and "the fact that if you change the government you will change the quality of economic management, economic policy in this country, and part of that, of course, is workplace relations policy," he said.

The government has listened to what people said about changes to labor laws and people were nervous that penalty rates and overtime loadings could be traded off without proper compensation, which wasn't the intention of the government, he said.

That's why the government plans to soften legislation and introduce fairness testing, such that if someone trades off penalty rates and overtime loadings then they will be fairly compensated, he said.

Enabling legislation will be introduced in the two-week parliamentary session starting Monday, he said.

Halifax CB 22:45 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
CT PT 22:34 GMT May 20, 2007
Don't know about the fx-effect since it's been so widely predicted, but if it does drop then after a few days it might be a good time to go hunting for conservative ADR's (etc.) over here, like TCM (NYSE) that get caught in the down draft....

Halifax CB 22:39 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Forgot to add the USDCAD chart; waiting to see what happens w/r to the fast line Chart clear break below would mean a sell for me; though I wouldn't be surprised to see it trade back up for awhile. Best to wait for London open, I would think....

CT PT 22:34 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Chinese stock market is going to see a huge drop (atleast 3-4% today)!!!
so friendz--you know what that means in forex market!!!
It'll be a very interesting wk with a nice trend for a change after last wk's ranging----
GL/GT

Monaco Oil man 22:33 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Also bought some gbp here..

52...Let's see if 1.99 is seen again this week.

Halifax CB 22:11 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Re $CAD, I have add on (short) points showing for charts 4 hours or more, but a wait on the hourlies or less. Which is probably good, given Sunday evening trade... Right now an hour below about 1.0880 would probably do it, but I think we'll see higher first before a final confirmation on the hourlies....

Monaco Oil man 21:39 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
BUY $/CAD 1.0900 Stops 1.0865 T/P 1.0965 + 1.1020+1.1115**+
gl gt

Monaco Oil man 21:34 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
I have to say i bought some $/CAD right here at 1.0900 for a quick scalp..However i did maintain the short pos , on other accounts.

Will gun for 1.10.

Monaco Oil man 21:31 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Repost from the old article:


Monaco Oil man 14:47 GMT April 17, 2007
As an update , we have broken the first critical levels , and are consolidating lower for the next move down.


Monaco Oil man 15:31 GMT April 10, 2007
Interesting , my monologue view on $/CAD is approaching the first critical level under it, we go to the New all time low :

Cannes Oil man 14:49 GMT February 23, 2007
Now this is interesting , cause here we are at 1.16, and i have the same exact indicators playing with one at 3416 while it was at 1789 in may 2004..It shows the upside volatility strength (when it goes down vol reverses to the downside , it's now doing so)..
It's hard not to think in terms of high and lows , cause once 1.14 breaks this on the weekly designates $/CAD coming up with a new all time lows coming in the months ahead.


06:54 GMT May 27, 2004

Thank you for your views, I will then share ours.
Our systematic approach on the $/CAD is currently to be shorting the $/CAD 1.37-1.39.
Ideally targetting low 1.2's.
On a technical analysis side, we note several trending indicators which possibly indicate further strenght in Canadian dollars.Some of this indicators are currently as bearish as $CAD 1.60,However signals do change (we were Long $cad from lower levels before the break 1.3870)and we'll stick to the value of the signal until our risk limits are hit (sorry if that is obvious.)
As for the fundamentals for the strenghtning of the Canadian dollar, I (personally) feel the surge in oil prices will be a big part of it.

Monaco Oil man 21:30 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Morning, evening,


CAD has pierced vs the $ and the YEN has indicated last week.


BTW only 900 to go....(quite a long way since 1700 , in such a short time frame..)..Refer to the $CAD article a while ago.

Anycase apart from 1.0870 , there's nothing till my magic 1 number...Or so it seems for now.
Same for my CADJPY , 115 still target for the few following sessions.



gl gt

NY Ed 21:28 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Anyone see , as I do, Dailies, on ALL quoted USD are down? Think it means anything????

RIC fxq 21:23 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:11 GMT

actually it only seemed like it was grey/rainy every QB in TO but in fact it was only every other year :)

Halifax CB 21:11 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:02 GMT May 20, 2007
Lol...actually, the weather's turned nice in NS - fresh but sunny, and the kid has headed out surfing (apparently the waves have been running from 6-10 feet)....Could be worse. Speaking of fireworks though, last fall they had a bunch here for labour day or something, managed to actually knock down a few ducks, which the younger set thought was pretty cool...

Wellington, N.Z. 21:02 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Today’s FX Trading Forecasts:

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts
go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above).

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RIC fxq 21:02 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:45 GMT

ah yes, brings back to mind memories of TO and damp,grey skies, pyrotechnic shell fragments raining down on the spectators. And of
course Ottawa and TO and the kids cheering the famous "burning schoolhouse". :)

Halifax CB 20:45 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
BTW, Monday is a holiday in most of Cadland, it's to celebrate the Queen's birthday (and I don't mean Divine...)

Halifax CB 20:23 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - re. GBP, fingers crossed it will hit 1.9580 before traversing our current stop trend line (currently about 1.99, but closing quickly). May loosen the stop if the sub-trends (not shown) pick up steam downward...Graph, but right now the overall trend (on the dailies) is up. Not so on the hourlies, using roughly the same scaling...Also, it's close to the ! lower deviation line, meaning it's moving out of the usual area, could start seeing some resistance here.

London NYAM 19:18 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Lots of correctiveness out there. Banging against ceilings is largely a two way bet. Breaking new ground or returning to old 'plattys'. Who knows, but there looks like wave 4 triangles are in the mix for the yen crosses. Trade the range and on your toes for the breakout. But dont expect it soon except in GBP which has sidled long enough and the real flows will kick in this week, I suspect.

The Netherlands Purk 18:40 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:22 GMT May 18, 2007
Just keep on seeing things negative there Perry and you will exactly get what you speak for.... Think we need a 100 people being positive to ruin your day..

Taking a first short bugger here...

Well i had set the target on 16275 for this short (16382), and went on a long weekend. Well i thought 5 mins back, it did some but not much, but my platty says that target was hit. So this was a 100++ move down and up?
Great show. Now that it crawled up, i expect 16450 soon. I will await.

Loonie: well there it is 10880 ish. It is just a zone, so we should see 10922 tomorrow, lets see. Great opps for a long but waiting for another move down to hit.

london 15:56 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Kuwait drops peg in body blow to Gulf currency union

Melbourne Qindex 14:03 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are [1.9593] - 1.9728 - 1.9772* - 1.9862

Melbourne Qindex 14:00 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.9477 - 1.9552* - 1.9702 - 1.9853

Melbourne Qindex 13:52 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has potential to tackle the upper trading range of 1.1372 - 1.1479. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1201 - 1.1257. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 1.1257. The lower barrier of the daily cycle is positioning at 1.1212 // 1.1230 and the center of the daily cycle projected series is located at 1.1301.


Daily Cycle : ...1.1158 - 1.1182* - 1.1194 - 1.1212 // 1.1230* - 1.1247 - 1.1253 - 1.1265 - 1.1277* - 1.1283 - [1.1301] - 1.1319 - 1.1325* - 1.1337 - 1.1348 - 1.1354 - 1.1372* // 1.1390 - 1.1408 - 1.1420* - 1.1444 ...

Melbourne Qindex 12:58 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3445 - 1.3547. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3445. The lower barrier of the 3-day cycle is located at 1.3385 // 1.3411. My daily cycle indicates that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit at 1.3459.


3-Day Cycle : ... 1.3309 - 1.3343* - 1.3360 - 1.3385 // 1.3411* - 1.3437 - 1.3445 - 1.3462 - 1.3479* - 1.3488 - [1.3513] - 1.3539 - 1.3547* - 1.3564 - 1.3581 - 1.3590 - 1.3615* // 1.3641 - 1.3666 - 1.3683* - 1.3718 ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:41 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle charts is located at 1.0812* - [1.0856]. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0812. The short term targeting points are 1.0634 and 1.0723. A projected barrier is expected at 1.0989. The center of the daily cycle projected series is [1.0870] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0923 // 1.0936.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0765 - 1.0783* - 1.0792 - 1.0805 // 1.0818* - 1.0835 - 1.0844 - 1.0853* - [1.0870] - 1.0888* - 1.0896 - 1.0905 - 1.0923* // 1.0936 - 1.0949 - 1.0957* - 1.0975 ...

RIC fxq 11:20 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Why do so many forexanalyst/talking head types get so bent out of shape ahead of G7/8/XX meetings when none of the meetings ever discuss forex?

hk ab 10:30 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
RF//Thanks very much. Will watch that carefully.

I am a bit surprised not to see any asian buying on metals over the past 2 weeks. Could it be because IMF selling offsetting the buyings?

Potsdam 10:04 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Markets on China vigil as G8 avoids FX, surprises

Potsdam 10:03 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
G8 communique says world economy good, risks easing

Como Perrie 09:07 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
HKK RF@ 08:46 GMT May 20, 2007
Inflation is coming back globally as costs from production to retails are rising and cutting jobs trough merging and acquisitions is not working so much as a deflationary factor as seen in the 90s, still It means more people on streets and the net, the latter deepence from knowledge development and national reforms.

Next week very interesting to watch will be US-China talks in Washington.

HKK RF@ 08:46 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:23 GMT May 20, 2007
June 1, 2007: The crash begins?
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2083199,00.html

That means; That crash if happens, may weaken the GBP .

Another expected crash in China and HKK, so we are into the crash expectation season.

Como Perrie 08:38 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
As said some time ago, there's not interest anymore in holding the long term bonds and the 10-Year Yield Finishes Above 4.8%

Como Perrie 08:31 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
The currency has appreciated by 5.8 percent since it was revalued by 2.1 percent and set free from a dollar peg in July 2005. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said that is not enough and that he will keep pressing Beijing to do more.

Reuters Sun May 20, 2007

Como Perrie 08:22 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
“Recently, due to an expectation of the [continued] revaluation of renminbi, these enterprises have rushed to settle their foreign exchange holdings through various arrangements and bring [the funds] back onshore,” she said.

Four of China’s five large state banks have raised $42bn in offshore IPOs in the past 22 months, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China alone raising a world record $21.9bn last October.

Ms Wu’s explanation seems designed to kill off any suggestions that the increase in reserves was due to a renewed surge in inflows of speculative “hot money” out of the control of the authorities.

Stephen Green, of Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai, cited a number of other factors responsible for higher reserves, notably interest earned on existing holdings, and the impact of currency revaluations on its portfolio of currencies.

It is not clear why the PBoC decided to unwind the swaps with the commercial banks but they may have done so under pressure from the lenders, who thought the money could be used more profitably at home.

Mr Green also speculated that the PBoC wanted to bring all outstanding funds back onshore ahead of the establishment of the proposed new body to manage a portion of the reserves and secure higher returns.

ft.com

HK RF@ 08:20 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
.

hk ab 17:25 GMT May 19, 2007

At first allow me to insert a correction .
Wherever appears 3.5% in my Prev. post at: “For 5 trading days a week it may allow it's currency to move between -3.5% to +3.5%”
Read as: “between -2.5% to +2.5%” just a simple mistake.

As of gold; Indeed 650 looks as an interesting support, but in case 650 will give way(because so many may eye it as an entry point, and because the chart may support such a move) then, things have to be watched carefully. And ~550 price target may be reached.

Melbourne Qindex 07:19 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.0684* - 1.0746 - [1.0932] .

Melbourne Qindex 07:06 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the critical level is located at [121.17] - 121.83. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 121.17. Short term targeting levels are 120.51* and 120.80.


Daily Cycle : ... 119.09 - 119.37* - 119.52 - 119.73 // 119.95* - 120.16 -120.23 - 120.38 - 120.52* - 120.59 - [120.80] - 121.02 - 121.09* - 121.23 - 121.38 - 121.45 -121.66* // 121.88 - 122.09 - 122.23* - 122.52 ...

Syd 06:23 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
June 1, 2007: The crash begins?
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2083199,00.html

Syd 06:20 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
HSBC rings stock market warning bells

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=44801&sid=13681484&con_type=1

Melbourne Qindex 06:10 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 0.8149 - 0.8189 - 0.8229* - 0.8249 - [0.8309] - 0.8369 - 0.8389*.

Melbourne Qindex 06:08 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 1.3194* - 1.3221 - [1.3301] - 1.3381 - 1.3407* - 1.3461 - 1.3514 - 1.3541 - 1.3621*.

Melbourne Qindex 06:04 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 118.78* - 119.02 - [119.73] - 120.44 - 120.68* - 121.15 - 121.63.

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:49 GMT May 20 is wrong

Melbourne Qindex 05:52 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.3271 - 1.3441 - 1.3525 - [1.3779].

Melbourne Qindex 05:49 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.4286 - 1.4455 - 1.4540.

Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 0.8147 - 0.8194 - 0.8338*.

Melbourne Qindex 02:28 GMT May 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 120.44 - 121.49.