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Forex Forum Archive for 05/21/2007

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RIC fxq 22:53 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 20:57 GMT

horse bucky, whoever supports it as prez will not be of the "D" party - for obvious reasons" and any "R" or - unlikely "I" prez will be impeached, easily, AND convicted.

at least in my lifetime.

Syd 22:51 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
BOF:Mortgages Push French Household Debt To Record High In 06 PARIS (Dow Jones)--French families' indebtedness reached a record high last year, mainly due to real estate loans, while the government cut the country's public debt, the Bank of France said in a study published Tuesday.


USA BAY 22:09 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
COMO PERRIE,

1 AM EST. Thanks so much. gt/gl

Como Perrie 22:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:50 GMT May 21, 2007

1 am east

Mtl JP 20:08 GMT May 21, 2007

He just does his top official job. During holidays, better.

USA BAY 21:50 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
What time is BOJ announcement pls. tia

London NYAM 21:47 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
I like your crazy chart Lahore. I would like to see a little more of an exhaustion reversal though. Be ready for a head over 122 and then a chop to the neck. Way too much complacency but perhaps a little more needed...a demain.

Lahore FM 21:32 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 21:21 GMT May 21, 2007
one crazy monthly usdjpy chart calls for 115.70 test before 130.but of course we have to go below 121.20 first.lolzzz...it sure can be interesting heading into tuesday.

London NYAM 21:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
"The great unwashed"! Was that supposed to be ironic?

Hmm ANYway. I like the look of the USDJPY another leg down now in the offing but i would have preferref a failed test of 121.68 bultiple fib extensions.

Off for a bath now...feeling very dirty.

Halifax CB 21:17 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:57 GMT May 21, 2007
Agree to some extent - loose linkage is fine, but I also like the fact that ccy valuations do reflect choices a country makes. Dunno about the Euro, personally I still think it was a Frankish plot to centralize power between France & Germany....Wonder if they'll start crowning Holy Roman Finance Emperors Ministers at Aix-la-Chappelle/Aachen ?

GVI john 21:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 21:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

5/21/2007 20:09	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3465	121.46	1.2302	1.9702	1.0846	0.6834	163.55
High	1.3532	121.63	1.2332	1.9756	1.0899	0.6852	163.94
Low	1.3436	120.92	1.2252	1.9678	1.0828	0.6824	163.25
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3514	120.98	1.2191	1.9724	1.0923	0.6829	162.97
10 day	1.3519	120.52	1.2170	1.9751	1.0986	0.6814	162.39
20 day	1.3566	120.09	1.2111	1.9828	1.1037	0.6810	162.30
50 day	1.3463	119.00	1.2107	1.9718	1.1310	0.6795	159.52
100 day	1.3258	119.44	1.2224	1.9602	1.1508	0.6728	157.68
200 day	1.3057	118.46	1.2273	1.9307	1.1392	0.6727	154.11
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


NYC beyond_destiny 20:58 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:55 GMT May 21, 2007

Thank you for your advice.

moved s/l to 112.3 market may be a bit bumpy during announcement of BOJ

Syd 20:57 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:49 Its seems many Canadians are not impressed , Aus and NZ also considering the same , probably not imminent but can see mostcountries linking especially after the so call success of the Euro.

FW CS 20:57 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 20:27 GMT May 21, 2007
The North American Union is going to be a reality unless the people in this country wake up and stand up to it. Already the NAFTA tribunals can over rule the US Supreme Court. Never mind if its blatanly unconstitutional it is being shoved down our throats.
---New York Times “NAFTA Tribunals Stir U.S. Worries” By ADAM LIPTAK , April 18, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/18/politics/18COUR.html?ex=1178078400&en=fc60d0fb47b0a157&ei=5070

dc CB 20:56 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:49 GMT May 21, 2007
Bob & Doug Mackenzie

I've still got one the buttons pinned inside my briefcase...eh :)

Dodgey's about to retire, he can say just about anything for the next 6 months.

Pa Ri Teeee

Halifax CB 20:49 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:38 GMT May 21, 2007

True; but look what happened to Europe - floods of economic refugees from the east. In our case it would be from the south ). Especially inappropriate comment as Canada is celebrating the great 2-4 week; the 24th anniversary of its coming of age as a cultural power, with the introduction 24 years ago of Bob & Doug Mackenzie (and "The Great White North") to the airwaves....

I think that Dodge is using this as the equiv of the FinMin & BoJ "checking rates" - try and scare off heavy loonie investors. If you bet on a loonie and wind up with just a buck, then you are SOL, AFAICS :)

Mtl JP 20:45 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
There migh be a good reason why Dodge is being retired in January

LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
DODGE thinks that when cad will be at par , maybe the usa will want to join hands with cad and adopt a single unit. what a bunch of [email protected]#$

Syd 20:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:34 Recall they said that about the Euro.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Monday it was "possible" there could at some point be a unified North American currency similar to Europe's euro.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070521:MTFH10690_2007-05-21_19-13-23_N21348529&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Syd 20:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Emerging Mkt Reserves To Boost USD - UBS
UBS notes that the recent climb in a range of emerging market currencies vs USD has led some USD bears to predict further greenback weakness vs the majors. But bank says emerging market currency strength means many countries will scale back their reserve diversification in future, reducing USD selling. Bank remains bullish on USD, seeing EUR/USD at 1.32 (now 1.3456) and GBP/USD at 1.91 (1.9689) over three months.

Halifax CB 20:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:16 GMT May 21, 2007
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said Monday that a single currency could "possibly" be adopted in North America.

That's more or less a political, not banking, issue, so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

RIC fxq 20:27 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
I can also see the Dem's in congress saying "free access across the border for all laborers", sure when hades experiences a deep freeze!

I wonder what your cb gov is smoking these days, jp?

Mtl JP 20:24 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:16 / "free trade agreement" is a croc of krap: there is nothing free about it.

Syd 20:16 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said Monday that a single currency could "possibly" be adopted in North America.
Responding to a question after delivering a speech in Chicago, Dodge noted, however, that barriers to labor movement across borders would have to be removed and that structures of the Canadian and Mexican economies would have to become more similar to the structure of the U.S. economy before a common currency would be possible.
The U.S., Canada and Mexico have had a free trade agreement in place for more than decade.

Mtl JP 20:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:50 / nothing like a good cause, from my notes I keep: "all of us CB ankers worry that risk spreads appear to be very narrow" - Boc Dodge in his conference on the 26th

BOE Says Low Debt Premiums Pose Risk to Stability - Bloomberg 26th

"An increase in risk-taking at the same time as a possible fall in the quality of risk assessment [has] increased the vulnerability of the financial system as a whole."
to justify a CBankers existence and rationalization for intervention.

Think the interventionistic dirigist "authorities" might be losing some sleep ? After all they are, to a good degree, responsible for keeping the "great unwashed" from running down the palace gates with burning torches and pitchforks in hands.

LKWD JJ 20:07 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
another day , another record high for the DJIA what else is new?

Halifax CB 20:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:16 GMT May 21, 2007
I haven't been following lately, but my impression that almost all cases were associated with people involved in raising poultry, especially under less than ideal sanitation conditions. It may be a case where simple handwashing & keeping the barn clean is the most effective control.

Mtl JP 19:56 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
low 111.xy s/t while under the fore-discussed 112 level. then trial if/when seen for 109ish

USA BAY 19:50 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

Seems like your bias is down for cad/jpy? Whats your target for the pair pls. tia

Como Perrie 19:50 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:21 GMT May 21, 2007

They just too scared to move as big billions ready either ways. As Bob said this am, sharks vs sharks is now the game, while the small fundy types watching. Not to mention our insignificant contribution to market's volumes, even if once a month or so it happens the small fishes breaking some nets around...nothing substantial so far.

Mtl JP 19:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
re cadyen c my 16:23

Mtl JP 19:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:30 / c my 16:32. 1.0880 and 1.0920 cap atm.

USA BAY 19:30 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

What is your outlook on usd/cad and cad/jpy for the coming days please. thanks

Halifax CB 19:27 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:23 GMT May 21, 2007
can u handle 8-handle ( 800++++ pip) days ?

My filter banks are locked & loaded; the more noise the merrier....

Mtl JP 19:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
can u handle 8-handle ( 800++++ pip) days ?

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:13 / nothing, NOTHING... like "markets could lose confidence that policy-makers worldwide will continue to take appropriate actions. Such a loss of confidence could lead to a sharp swing in market sentiment and an abrupt, and costly, resolution of imbalances."

yayayayayaya, bring it ON babY! yayaya fan the volatility

Como Perrie 19:16 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 19:08 GMT May 21, 2007

Currently given some research on avian flu am following at times, near half of deaths are kids. With tamiflu you survive 2 weeks, else you die in around 3 days. Hence tamiflu will help spreading the virus widely around.

Como Perrie 19:14 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
May 23-24 "strategic economic dialogue" in Washington.

U.S. and Chinese officials have been traveling to each other's capitals in recent months trying to tee up other issues more likely to produce agreement. Chinese officials say the area where the two sides are most likely to reach agreement is cooperation in environmental protection.

But the leader of the U.S. delegation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, has said Chinese action on the yuan -- rather than market opening, anti-piracy or other areas -- is the benchmark by which he would measure Beijing's progress.

Critics have charged that Beijing keeps the yuan undervalued, some say by as much as 40 percent, to make its exports cheaper, creating an unfair price advantage that fuels its trade surplus.

Under pressure, Beijing broke a direct link between the yuan and the dollar in July 2005 and revalued the currency by 2.1 percent. Since then, it has allowed the currency to rise 5.3 percent against the dollar in tightly controlled trading. Economists expect an increase of 4 to 7 percent over the course of 2007 under the current system.

Washington is pushing for faster action, saying that the undervalued yuan is contributing to a loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs. A stronger yuan would make Chinese exports less attractive to American consumers and U.S. goods more competitive in China.

A pair of U.S. legislators have introduced a bill that would enable companies to seek tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for its currency policies, though a similar measure in 2005 failed.

Senators Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat; Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican; Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat; and Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, say they are working on a China currency bill and plan to introduce it in June.

Wu, the trade envoy, noted that some American lawmakers want punitive action. But instead of offering conciliatory gestures, she rejected such sentiments as irresponsible.

AP

Como Perrie 19:13 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:07 GMT May 21, 2007

No but mentioned the amero and the likelyhood of a North American currency, which was thinking about some two years ago to have a fix around 1.000000 usdcad. Else Canada would not have entered given the less control of row material and other resources of which US is going short of.

Halifax CB 19:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:02 GMT May 21, 2007
Well, in the longer run, the Black Death was a huge benefit, at least to the West... No pain, no gain, and all that....

Mtl JP 19:07 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 18:48 / Dodge's yak has not mentioned "parity", not evenmonce: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/speeches/2007/sp07-11.html

On the other hand, he is musing that he "worry that it is far too early to start discounting the threat posed by the persistence of global imbalances."

hahaha, this must be the third or 4th reference to worry about risk to financial stability I see on the wires JUST today: chickens forecasting rain/storm showers ?

Como Perrie 19:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:59 GMT May 21, 2007

;)) he says also lack of yuan flexibility impedes china's economy


in some years maybe, maybe earlier if the higher seats are at risk...

continental economies...unless you factor a major global epidemic into your maths to change the output

Halifax CB 18:59 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 18:48 GMT May 21, 2007
Don't believe him, here's proof.
(CAD is the big unknown) => (CAD = X) => (USD"X" = USD"CAD") => (USDCAD -> 0.8)

See, math is simple :)

Mtl JP 18:55 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
beyond_destiny 16:13 / your short cadyen looking promising

Como Perrie 18:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Small check up.

Dodge of the Bank of Canada on the wires. He confirms what was suspecting about an agreement at parity for the amero the North American new currency.

dc CB 18:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
When Traders go bust

Mtl JP 18:19 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
athens kos44 / Are u ignorant ?

looks like u ve skipped over and dis-respected the owners' GUIDELINES FOR THE FOREX FORUM

#4 Any form of direct or indirect advertising is not permitted without permission.

Mtl JP 18:14 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:34 , personaly have no interest in silver: but does not mean that profits can not be made.

The Netherlands Purk 18:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Well i am going to try to live like an aboriginal than i would recognize the face behind the masks, great people those Aboriginals. And how nice of the others to help them run out of everything they got which was apperently an illusion..

In the meantime i have taken my first long in Loonert and let it go to 10924 first, than put it on b/e for a while.
Dont know when this will happen, but i do know that it will happen, as said Loonert is in Nomansland with lotsa people shorting it. There are always crumbs for me though.
Bugger: again my 164 orders where missed, did not take another short. Dont see it boingking against the high, so it is neutral to me.
Swissy keeps doing nice things so that e/u can get lower ever time.
Purk out, reading books about the Aboriginals.

ABHA FXS 18:05 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Short EURAUD 1.6388 Stop 1.6445 T 1.6256

LDN Mahmood 17:56 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:58 GMT - oh he'll find a way out of the mess. Especially with that unique magic calculator that keeps on averaging the price lower and lower. Wish I had one :)

dc CB 17:54 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Cerberus Capital Management Joins the BCE Bidding Battle

Posted on May 21st, 2007 with stocks: BCE

John Bethel submits: File this under "the more the merrier." The Globe and Mail reported Thursday that Cerberus Capital Management is joining the bidding battle for BCE Inc. (BCE). Reuters reports the development is welcome news to analysts:

The Globe and Mail newspaper, citing sources it said were familiar with the situation, wrote on Thursday that Cerberus had enlisted the help of investment bankers UBS AG and Genuity Capital Markets to advise them on making a play for BCE, owner of Bell Canada.

"Cerberus is all over it," the paper quoted one source as saying. "They believe they are there."

Another interesting bit:

A takeover of BCE could easily top C$31 billion ($28.4 billion), making it one of the biggest take-private buyouts in North America.


Sofia mik 17:36 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
G-VI Jay , you have a mail, if no receive , pls I wil send again.

glgt to all!

hk ab 17:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
JP, are you interested in metals too? xag looks m/t turn has come.....

amman 17:27 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
this GBPUSD should go down

Sofia mik 17:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:58
las t year2006 low to new 2007 low usd cad is nearrly 1%.
High o6 is +0.7% from high 05
if usdcad drop to 1.0- this is nearly 10% for one y ear.
check you calculation in % always not in pips .this is important !imho
glgt!

Syd 17:10 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Toxic soup on Games menu
LINK

Halifax CB 17:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:02 GMT May 21, 2007
Sorry, that should be a -10 on the outside, not a -20.

Mtl JP 16:58 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Global-View AFX / that would be crushingly bad for the Zeusmariner; alternately IF this holds: Stop set 1.0629. Otherwise will enjoy a rally

Global-View AFX (TFN) 16:53 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
AFX (now Thomson Financial) has a story entitled:

"FOCUS Canadian dollar set for further gains; Parity with US dollar possible"

If anyone would like a copy, send us an EMAIL

Mtl JP 16:32 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
beyond_destiny 16:13 / re usdcad repost from gvi, fwiw:
Mtl JP 15:14 GMT May 21, 2007
fwiw, dlrcad close below 1.0816 would open 1.075ish for target
, fwiw.

and let someone else(s) comment on your chfyen

Mtl JP 16:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
beyond_destiny 16:13 / I would kill the cadyen IF it closes above 112.07 on the daily bar, despite valuation metrics.

NYC beyond_destiny 16:13 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
am I fighting the market?

Short chfyen 98.8 t/p 95
Short cadyen 112.1 t/p 108
long loonie 1.084 t/p 1.1

Any suggestion for stop?

Halifax CB 16:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 15:43 GMT May 21, 2007
Sorry, I missed it...But I don't do anything with Excel, only MT4 ( or Matlab, C, etc..). I generally plot out

-20*log10((High(i)-Low(i) +Point)/Close(i)) +K,

which gives the variance in dB and makes the chart easer to analyse. Point is just the minimal quote difference for the pair, and is only included to avoid no-trade problems. K is the normalization constant for annualization, but if you are only interested in differences between various points, just set K to 0. Using an exponential average on the results also produces a more readable graph. A difference 3dB = a factor of sqrt(2) difference in the standard deviations, or 2 in the variances.

GENEVA JFO 15:53 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
hi guys,

Eur/usd : Good support level 1.3440/70 can bring us back above 1.3610/50 with risk under 1.3410/1.3390 for direct down round 1.3280/00

Let's see what this week will show us,

Gd trade All

Mumbai Deepak 15:43 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB ...Please see Mumbai Deepak 08:57 GMT May 21, 2007

Como Perrie 15:43 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:10 GMT May 21, 2007

See previous post on choice of butter or cannons getting imminent.

London NYAM 15:32 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:28 GMT May 21, 2007 //
Great point Bob. Those minutes might prove to be the sneak atatck on the USDJPY. I know Ill get flack for this, but the pair should turn a few hundred points soon.

Mtl JP 15:29 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
beyond_destiny 15:12 / dlrcad could not even touch let alone surmount 1.0880 resistanceon the 5 minute chart. in my optique close below 1.0816 would make 1.075ish vulnerable.

St. Annaland Bob 15:28 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
NYC // let's see if CADJPY sets a base above 11220 today, if not then BOJ minutes may cause JPY to enter European session on strong feet.

NYC 15:24 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Bob. You must pay attention to eur/jpy when you trade usd/jpy. The NY session has been quiet but eur/jpy creeping higher has supported usd/jpy.

lkwd jj 15:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
100ma right at todays lows in cable 19674.

St. Annaland Bob 15:22 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:19 GMT May 21, 2007

many tks ... am a trader and not a fireman, your comment suggests that the trade is more a fire play in a circus than a good trade ... happy trade

London NYAM 15:19 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:16 GMT May 21, 2007//Possibly I was just suggesting a mental stop loss should you take the short. This looks like a b-wave right now so a pull back to 121.42 is possible but its tight.

St. Annaland Bob 15:16 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
meaning 12210+++ levels

St. Annaland Bob 15:16 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:13 GMT May 21, 2007

tks ... but, before that possible break will it go 12130 or not? ... no doubt that many looking to initiate USDJPY shorts at the level you mentioned and market sometimes does not willing to provide the chance for the chance takers ... happy trades!

London NYAM 15:13 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:09 GMT May 21, 2007//
I would watch the 121.65/70 level if that breaks it should extend to 122.00/30. IMHO

NYC beyond_destiny 15:12 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
we may see a bounce of loonie on 1.0804/00...Market is extremely in short and correction is due...However, it's a sell below 1.11 (0.9 cad)

Mtl JP 15:11 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:03 / see Zeus 17:37 GMT May 16. Maybe taking flying lessons in the secret recon mission plane (Loon II ?)

Halifax CB 15:10 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:47 GMT May 21, 2007
I do have also two extreme ones, but will not post as do not want to scare anybody - the cad.

Ahh, 'cmon, I love the frisson of a scare inthe am :).
But most intresting indicators - from the ratios of total per capita debt between the two (after all, the countries are rather similar in lifestyle, one would think the debt p/c would be the same) to the ratio of bodyweight or life span, would put the USD siggnificantly lower. As a kid, I remember the USD significantly less than CAD; and having seen the peregrinations of other ccy's in the past by wide amounts, nothing scares me. If I'm on the right side of the bet, that is :)


St. Annaland Bob 15:09 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

your feedback please about taking USDJPY short here for 121.35 target before tomorrow's European opening ... thanks

Como Perrie 15:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Am mostly done for this slow, yet interesting day.

hk ab 15:03 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
zeus, still around?

St. Annaland Bob 15:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
now more then ever markets reflect someone's interest and books more than any kind of real value ... it's very clear that we are in extreme bubble times, the issue is when the burst will arrive and if it will target 2004 or 2005 (at least) values ... anyway, the most important to remember for the time being are BC's words about 2008 being a new story with his vision for the rest of this year (but he mentioned no direction per 2008, yet) ... sure, it is always a good time to thank BC ... happy and safe trades!

Como Perrie 14:54 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
A couple of weeks ago the OECD and the International Monetary Fund delivered their regular reports on the New Zealand economy.

Since both organisations are looking in from the outside and are staffed with highly trained economists, their views seem to carry a lot of weight with local media and politicians. One has to wonder why, since there was nothing much in those reports apart from the same old, same old.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development was frank in admitting that it is puzzled by New Zealand's economic situation. The country has largely followed the reform course prescribed by the international economic watchdogs: extensive deregulation, reduction of tariffs, labour market reform, targeting of low inflation, public debt reduction, and so on.

But instead of ending up in the top half of the OECD rankings, the economy has made no headway on that score and faces a national savings shortage, low productivity growth, an inflation problem, and an overvalued exchange rate.

see full article at the link lower

Time to think outside the box
The Dominion Post | Saturday, 19 May 2007

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4065636a1865.html

Como Perrie 14:47 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
I do have also two extreme ones, but will not post as do not want to scare anybody - the cad.

Como Perrie 14:45 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

Halifax CB 14:42 GMT May 21, 2007

Tks, interesting... So far I'll follow with less computers and classics as the periods of reference have many uncompounded variables and so other possible scenarios I see, which one just time will tell.

Halifax CB 14:42 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:23 GMT May 21, 2007
It is hard getting good targets when we're where no man has gone before regions (well, for 30+ years )...but take a look at the fib levels on the weeklies over te last major retracements, which would make the 1.04 level the next classical tech target. Entry levels with associated stops are a bit more difficult, though I've found a fast filter to be pretty accurate (added on again last night a bit after euro open, once it broke the 1.0880 level, see my earlier post). Running the SL off a 72-hr filter (details if you want...)
As for BoC, I think they are in a wait and see; inflation is a threat here atm, so they are probably happy to see CAD strength, it saves the hassle of increasing interest rates...

Como Perrie 14:41 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Australian Prime Minister just said that in some australian states industrial production will have to be stopped due water shortage.

GENEVA DS 14:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie

Thanks for your post... yes of course , we do have all of us bad periods... actually I do have lots of them.... no problem about that... do agree on your analysis... the only other thing I could imagine is... that a lot of bad news are now priced into the AUD - Rate... I become a buyer, especially against JPY and CHF... gl

London NYAM 14:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY//Wave equality target for move from Apr 19 starting at 117.60 to 120.45 and down to the recent relative low of 119.46 places a potential resistance and attractor at 122.30

Como Perrie 14:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

GENEVA DS 14:25 GMT May 21, 2007

We all have good and bad days (periods). Nothing new, but fundamentally looking the C$ is much much stronger than any other currency at current. Safer on the climate impact than Australia or New Zealand, bigger as a market and oil sands as many other things. So far New Zealand is more an interest speculation of eurokiwis and uridashis, while Australia is the real market, which suffer from record drought now some five years. This was not compunded in the decision process of allocation in the last 90s, so kalman fileters or all the models around are subjective to several other non compunded variables and might be as right as wrong.

Mumbai Deepak 14:31 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:52 GMT May 21, 2007
-----------------

Oilman...I can send you the INR data from 1990. I have daily, weekly and monthly in excel in OHLC format. Can you test it?

I will upload it on my website.

TIA

GENEVA DS 14:25 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
our friend Zeus has taken a day off....? Is he canadian ?

Como Perrie 14:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Think overall most systems are uncapable of giving enough confident signals on the UsdCad here.

Looking back into the 70s by rule of thumb 1.07 to 1.06 approx might be key and maybe the BOC intervention point, maybe not.

Monaco Oil man 13:52 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 11:22 GMT May 21, 2007

I don't have it in my database , so my models aren't able to generate signals.

However if you look at a past post i made , the CCY's of the future (within 5 to 10 years) in the diversification basket should definitely have :

Rubble
Yuan
INR
Those 3 will be the largest gainers within the 5 to 10 Years time frame.

ABHA FXS 13:52 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
IMM types selling usdcad thru stops @ 1.0870

London NYAM 13:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Well the latest BIS report revealed Private Derivative instruments have risen by 1/3 this year alone to a whopping 400 trillion dollars. If they are netted off against eachother (which of course is no insurance against defaults just reassurance), then you get only 10 trillion, still no small sum. Locked and loaded.

Como Perrie 13:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 13:45 GMT May 21, 2007

Yeap Bob agree...


reason will follow the talks with extreme interest is that USA in the last 15-18 years has had both butter and cannons and now at the top US levels having tough talks as there a choice has to be made... which one to choose then, butter or cannons will be a hard one imo.

St. Annaland Bob 13:45 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
happy days ... when small fish is not the meal anymore for the sharks, the time sharks will have no other choice but having each other as a meal nears ... it will be very bloody and interesting ... the golden tip for such times arrived from China by imposing export duties, export duties! ... seems that someone is having lots of self confidence based on actual real power or is overestimating himself ... we will see! ... until now, China's top mega traders are the ultimate market visionaries ... so, trade happy and safe and make your best to be on the same boat with the winning visionaries.

Como Perrie 13:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
This week will follow those US-China talks in Washington, so am taking It easy at the very beginning. G8 mixed, particularly the hedge funds regularization...but the problem is LTCM just distributed risk over thousands of smaller hedge funds, now bigger to hide risk ratios with enlarged assets....so they did not solve anything, rather the opposite they increased the risks astonishingly..imvho too much...but fine to me unless It works, finite economical men too :)

Como Perrie 13:33 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM 13:30 GMT May 21, 2007

:))) most of them are too old for the new imo... but in general am not bother, just sick of listening to lies... maybe am just reading too much..

London NYAM 13:30 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Its those Fat Tails that get you.

Como Perrie 13:25 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Also allocations at the higher levels are starting to move differently and choices are becoming of great difference between the bigger funds and allocators..markowitz unusable at some extents, as black and schools was wrong as caulcuation but still they won the nobel...stupidity at the higher levels?

Como Perrie 13:22 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:00 GMT May 21, 2007

:))) yeap..sounds as all is still fine enough...call It the monday blues ...so far not very active majors as of late, been more there in the prior weeks, but do not want to expand too much at current...

cable went out earlier the morning at 19715, tought to shot the reverse but do find yet some sensation of possible vola gaps to show out next days most probably so will watch ...plenty of time and room either ways It deserves to move, if any

double contradictionary zones of trouble :)

ABHA FXS 13:18 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Cable approaching the 100 day sma (1.9660) as the pair deals lower, last 1.9683/88
We are focusing on the EURUSD .618 daily retracement derived from the 1.3254-1.3679 move up. The level comes in at 1.3417.

London NYAM 13:09 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD 50% Fib level is at 1.9657.

ABHA FXS 13:07 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Aussie sitting on the lows of the day .8185 keep an eye on .8157-59 area this is the 55 day moving average and should provide some support

madrid mm 13:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
The markets is predictably unpredictable, which means that there will be surprises along the way. ....

amman 13:00 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
wut about the GBP/USD ?

London NYAM 13:00 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:34 GMT May 21, 2007//
I love the exasperation that it is unfair to have high taxes on profits while expropriating the natural resources of a country.

Looks as though GBP is winding up for a another crack at lower levels. Is the next round of dollar buying coming?

Gen dk 12:50 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 12:46 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Some charts history on costs of mining

http://www.minecost.com/curves.htm

ny platt 12:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Buy Euro/usd at present price stoploss 1.3400 target 1.3600

Como Perrie 12:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:18 GMT May 21, 2007

No big interest in P/E shares etc. Do see sharp changes in balance sheets to be published, but most probably on news next year. In between the game of mergings and higher unemployment will still lead the buyers appetite. So far take a look at the following explaining why industries will erode their profits and so forced to merge or bankrupt

Miners grapple with rising tax demands

http://www.reuters.com/article/GlobalMiningandSteel07/idUSN2026288020070520

Plovdiv Gotin 12:33 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Euro 1st sign of strength is breaking 1.3461 and stay above. Next1.3475/79/... 1.3507.GL

hk ab 12:25 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, I remember your call of aud 0.8170, great call.

London NYAM 12:18 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:45 GMT May 21, 2007//
Things look stark indeed. Not really good form on my part to talk about 'the end is nigh.' I'll end up harping on about 'imbalances' and that malarky. Just watching the waves. Looking at US equities Ive viewed them as in the misdt of a massive intragenerational B wave since the A wave off the 2000 highs. C-wave is inevitable but it may not end up diving that low. The reversal of some 700billion in leveraged palys on the US Equity market is probably comming with the first failures of the Private Equity Money-Machine. That should knowck into markets and derivative instruments. The housing bubble may end up being the red-herring.

Melbourne Qindex 12:17 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT May 20, 2007
Crude Oil (July) : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 65.18. On the other hand the market momentum is strong when it is trading above (66.97). The downside targeting points are 63.85 and 64.40. The upside targeting points are 66.52 and 67.50.

GVI john 11:59 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


5/21/2007 9:26	GMT						
	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
Last	1.3501	121.31	1.2278	1.9709	1.0838	0.6848	163.8
High	1.3528	121.36	1.2286	1.9755	1.0899	0.6851	163.94
Low	1.3498	121.07	1.2271	1.9707	1.0836	0.6843	163.69
							
Simple mva							
5 day	1.3521	120.95	1.2195	1.9730	1.0924	0.6833	163.06
10 day	1.3523	120.51	1.2172	1.9753	1.0987	0.6815	162.44
20 day	1.3568	120.08	1.2112	1.9829	1.1037	0.6811	162.32
50 day	1.3464	119.00	1.2108	1.9719	1.1311	0.6795	159.53
100 day	1.3259	119.43	1.2224	1.9603	1.1508	0.6729	157.68
200 day	1.3057	118.46	1.2273	1.9307	1.1392	0.6727	154.11

Como Perrie 11:59 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil is above $65 on continued concerns with respect to U.S. gasoline supplies, as markets continue to eye developments in Nigeria and Iran.
LME Zinc inventories fell to a 16-yr low last week, providing support to Asian zinc prices.
Nickel may rise 20% on smelter shortage: Credit Suisse.
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd, Gold Fields Ltd and Harmony Gold Mining Co, Africa`s largest gold producers, have received a demand for a double-digit wage increase from the Solidarity labour union.
Bolivia, the world`s fifth largest tin producer, may propose a 12.5% tax on mining-company profit.

Como Perrie 11:49 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:47 GMT May 21, 2007

Just digital pictures :)) 1/3 or more of silver is still used for films, but not an infinite resources. everything is finite even belief.

Melbourne Qindex 11:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market will test 1.3380.

Como Perrie 11:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Multinationals beside have lost touch with reality as well by thinking the only important thing in the last 15 years was to compete and enlarge. But a game without opponents or consumers exhousted finishes even for the winner.

Haifa ac 11:47 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:44 GMT May //
What about sunsets
Vinus De Milo
Elizabeth Taylor?

Como Perrie 11:45 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
The end of the industrial era as we knew It.

Climate change, resources, water all is becoming to costly. See lower WSJ for explanation. Plus demographics of course...

Como Perrie 11:44 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
To say It simply: All beutiful things have an end.

Como Perrie 11:41 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM 11:34 GMT May 21, 2007

tks yeap the move was tough even for the big guys. I'll watch what next taking It easy and smaller risk...do not like what I see, charts included - there are lotsa strange mixtures around that imo apparently have hit very hard many hedge funds around the globe, this added to multinationals-top quoted companies big forex losses in addition to raw material impacting profitability. A good mix for a stock market at least sectorial reshape imo if not a sharp correction to happen in the unknown future ahead. Also bloomberg has changed statment on China which was by most top around they to wait later on into the year, while now calling for more rapid evolution of the yuan moving into the globe free markets. A revolution in coupla words, a totally new market to avoid global disaster, even if with sharp market corrections.....At least very interesting if nothing else

London NYAM 11:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:21 GMT May 21, 2007 //
Probably alot of short covering. I know a couple of institutions we work with were heavily predicting a USDCAD continuation above 1.18. They may finally be throwing in the towel.

Como Perrie 11:22 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
By Elisabeth Behrman
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, May 21, 2007

SYDNEY, Australia -- As demand for minerals surges and commodity prices approach record levels, the worst drought in Australia in 100 years is starting to affect mining and could crimp output in the country, a leading supplier of raw materials.

The shortage of water is squeezing some coal mines and at least one copper and gold operation. And where planned mines face higher costs to get water or where groundwater is insufficient, development may not proceed, threatening to limit increases in output needed to keep pace with demand.

Australia is a leading exporter of uranium and the largest exporter of alumina, coal, iron ore, lead and zinc. Mining accounts for nearly one-third of the country's exports by value, feeding the rapid development of economies such as China and India.

The states of South Australia, New South Wales and southern parts of Queensland have been severely affected by the drought, which has lasted more than five years in some areas. Prime Minister John Howard said last month he will cut water supplies along the Murray-Darling Basin, a key agricultural and mining region, unless the area receives substantial rain soon. The region provides 5% of Australia's mineral output.

"The viability of planned operations in the Murray-Darling Basin are seriously brought into question," said Melanie Stutsel, director of environmental and social policy at the Minerals Council Australia. "This is an issue that will escalate in time."

The drought comes as miners in other parts of Australia are wrestling with excessive rainfall and cyclones, which have dented the iron-ore output of BHP Billiton in north Western Australia.

In April, copper and gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd. warned that it would cut production at its Cadia Hill mine in New South Wales if there wasn't rain soon. Last week, Newcrest said it had reached a deal with the local government to buy additional water to keep the mine running. A feasibility study for a 1.5-billion-Australian-dollar (US$1.24 billion) expansion of the mine is under way.

Water is crucial to mining, though mining accounts for just 3% of Australia's national water demand. Coal miners need it to control dust and to wash out rocks, dirt and other small particles. In copper processing, water is used to liquefy concentrate for transport through a pipeline. And in metal refining, miners need water for cooling.

Eighty percent of the water the industry uses comes from underground sources, which don't face the same seasonal pressures as rivers but are affected by prolonged drought because aquifers aren't recharged at the usual rate.

One victim of the drought last week was the Tarong coal mine Rio Tinto owns in Queensland. It said it will let go 160 people, or two-thirds of its work force, after the power station it supplies reduced output by 70% because of the lack of water. Other coal mines in southeast Queensland are also at risk from insufficient water.

Last year, the drought didn't hurt mining, but it did curb farm output -- agriculture accounts for the bulk of water demand -- and so shaved three-quarters of a percentage point off economic growth, which came in at 2.8%. For fiscal 2007-08, which ends June 30, the Australian government predicts growth of 3.75%, provided rainfall returns to seasonal conditions.

A South Australian Chamber of Mines and Energy study of 23 companies most likely to undertake development found that water accounted for a "fair chunk" of the A$20 billion they expected to devote to infrastructure, according to Jason Kuchel, the Chamber's chief executive.

"In some mines, significantly more than 50% of development costs will be on infrastructure," Mr. Kuchel said. "A project could go on the back burner if it's at risk of an infrastructure-cost blowout, such as water."

Water demand will increase sevenfold over the next 10 years in South Australia's central Gawler Craton region, which houses BHP's giant copper-gold-uranium Olympic Dam mine, as a result of Olympic Dam's expansion and other mine starts, Mr. Kuchel said.

"The government will likely provide water through desalination plants or [will] work with BHP on an expansion for its [proposed] desalination plant," Mr. Kuchel said.

BHP has said it is considering a desalination plant, with the state government to supply water to local communities and to the Olympic Dam operation. A BHP spokeswoman said Friday it is too early to address issues such as cost or expansion plans for the plant. A desalination plant planned for Western Australia has a price tag of A$955 million.

Melbourne Qindex 11:22 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is not a good sign when EUR/CAD is trading below 1.4600.

Mumbai Deepak 11:22 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman...Do you have a view on USD-INR. The Indian Rupee has even outperformed the CAD in the recent days.

Como Perrie 11:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
There's lotsa surprised institutional and commercial demand of canadian dollars around. No idea what next in such situation. Apparently the war for commodities rich and developed markets as Canada is. ALso rising production costs in the economy, raw materials at first is the big sparker. Astonishing the climate effect on productin is also starting to show out in balances as the WSJ today reports, impacting even the top companies as BHP.

Even if do suspect for parity there are oder larger and longer over the top agreements working onto. So far the world has changed some say, but markets yet noticing It in small pills.

Mumbai Deepak 11:18 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 10:58 GMT May 21, 2007

I know that Oilman...and that is why I asked you your volatility method. I am observing the forum for the last 2 years and I did not find anyone better than you.
You showed us the Range trading tactics in Oct-Nov 2006 and then trend following in the subsequent months.

I asked CAD because that has been ur best performer in the recently and that was the only pair where you discussed "Volatility". I like Derivatives a lot and hence the question.

I also read up a lot of your archives.

Bangladesh Wenel 11:06 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Order placed at 25.SL 1.3340. GL & GT

Monaco Oil man 10:58 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Well you must be forgetting i was also long 6780 NZD, OZI 7707 ..

Which i took out around 72XX..

But CAD had the strongest indicator (higher than 1.60 drop , or 1.38) , so i was looking for a STRAIGHT line to parity...Which so far is happening.

HK Kevin 10:56 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Bangladesh Wenel 10:47 GMT, better wait for 1.3360

GVI john 10:55 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Mumbai Deepak 10:51 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman...I know about the simple volatility. I wanted to know why did you trade CAD and that point of time and NOT any other currency as a "Bearish US Dollar" theme. I want to know your 'Magical Volatility".

I compeletly respect that it may be propritary and you may not want to share it. However, incase you can share it, it would be great for students of the game like us. You are really a Master!!!

BTW, Guys...USD-INR closed at a fresh 9 year low today!

Bangladesh Wenel 10:47 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Looking for long eur/usd from 1,3425.T/P 1,3660.

Bangladesh Wenel 10:43 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Hi guys,
Closed all my eur/usd shorts from 1,3645.I'm flat now.I'll keep you updated about my new positions. GL

Helsinki iw 10:41 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 05:54 GMT April 24, 2007
While euro strength towards the previous high of 1.3660/80 can still be seen, such strength should offer a good chance to short EUR/USD as it seems this pair is losing momentum against this resistance level. An unexpected break would target 1.45/46 at least. IMHO

---

The first fibo support at 1,3470/80 is now broken, and there is a good chance that the euro weakens towards 1,3165/75 or 1,2810/20 over the coming months. IMHO.

Como Perrie 10:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Amazing this UsdJpy, rising and rising and bouncing into new highs will never end.

btw China rising export taxes on most metals produced in China.

London NYAM 10:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Price patterning on USDJPY indicating a th wave extension in play. 122.00 is almost certain. The correction play may be more interesting.

Monaco Oil man 10:35 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Here's an exemple how to calc a very simple volatility :

Here

Mumbai Deepak 10:33 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
OK Thanks Oilman...for this.

Monaco Oil man 10:26 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Funny on the chart u can even see my buy 1.09 before 2007..Not sure if anyone remembers me doing the broken record for upside in cad..Ah.

Monaco Oil man 10:25 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
I made it as an oscillator , but i don't use it as stochastics , only when it drops from a peak...Anyways it was well above the 1.60 drop , or 1.38.

Melbourne Qindex 10:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:19 GMT May 20, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.0684* - 1.0746 - [1.0932] .


Melbourne Qindex 07:06 GMT May 20, 2007
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle): As shown in my weekly cycle charts the critical level is located at [121.17] - 121.83. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 121.17. Short term targeting levels are 120.51* and 120.80.


Daily Cycle : ... 119.09 - 119.37* - 119.52 - 119.73 // 119.95* - 120.16 -120.23 - 120.38 - 120.52* - 120.59 - [120.80] - 121.02 - 121.09* - 121.23 - 121.38 - 121.45 -121.66* // 121.88 - 122.09 - 122.23* - 122.52 ...

The Netherlands Purk 10:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Well Loonie is in Nomansland now, did not see NN longing yet or i missed it. But longers no worries, we will see 10945 this week....
Swissy is good above 122 leading the e/u down...
Awaiting for orders in bugger: 16400-16425-16444-16466.

Monaco Oil man 10:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
OK CAD vol zoomed

Mumbai Deepak 10:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman....I am talking about a "Volatility chart" if you have any.

London NYAM 10:20 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:04 GMT May 21, 2007
who is sitting at 121.30 hard//
See the trend line off the double top highs earlier this year. It capped the dollar for a while but is in process of making a break now.

Melbourne Qindex 10:19 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle projected series are 1.4319 // 1.4470* - 1.4621 - 1.4671 - 1.4772 - 1.4872*

Monaco Oil man 10:18 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 10:04 GMT May 21, 2007

I just posted a chart 2 lines down.

Melbourne Qindex 10:14 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : Keep an eye on the level 1.4394.

HK REVDAX 10:10 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone out there who is selling Euro/CHF and Euro/yen? TKS

Melbourne Qindex 10:05 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : It is importance to stabilize around 1.4626 otherwise the next taget is 1.4218.

Mumbai Deepak 10:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Oilman...

My question is NOT about the scalping trade that you took. I am not interested in that.

I am asking from a more larger point of view, as to pure chartically, AUD-USD was more bullish than $-Cad, in Feb, when you took that trade. Yet you took $-CAD based on your volatility indicators and you have come out with flying colours, while those who took pure chartically, took Aussie and are somewhat stuck.

I am more interested in your magical Volatility. Can you post any charts, Please. Can I mail you?

Monaco Oil man 10:01 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Regarding the chart from last week and it's signal , it bounced right on my special indicator , and now points again to more downside..

That's why systems wait for confirmations (not when i do discretionary trades though , as on those , i m as good as anyone else..).

gl gt

Syd 09:45 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Bubbles are everywhere
LAST year the Chinese market rose 130%. This year it’s already up another 45%. About 300,000 new trading accounts are opened every day and one-third of listed companies are valued at more than 60 times earnings.

So when Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, was asked a few weeks ago whether a bubble was forming in the market it wasn’t that hard for him to figure out the answer. Yes, he said.
link

Monaco Oil man 09:36 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 21:31 GMT May 20, 2007
Mumbai Deepak 04:02 GMT May 21, 2007


THanks, my systems are proprietary , however the scalp isn't (buy $CAD over night , is my idea , i will gladly tell you why i bought (to deep my feet in the waters. , i tested , my toe got bitten)..Which apart from the 25 pips lost on a scalp position (small) definitely points that my 115 CADJPY and Parity $/CAD have high chances of being seen in the following weeks.. (even though we're at 112 now , so 115 isn't too far).

As for how to calculate volatility , you could look it up on google , and make yourself an indicator.
gl gt

Atlanta South 09:33 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
What a nice smooth ride down the $/CAD has made over the
last several weeks. I hope everyone has been on board. It
now appears there maybe some more miles remaining in this
trip. Any views welcomed as these are just my humble views
& nothing more. gt to all.

RIC fxq 09:32 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

* 21 May 07: 08:10(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, GBP/USD Flows - soft start, but liable to be talked up

A slow start to the European session, both EUR/USD and Cable taking a tentative step lower, but shorts in both vulnerable to 'sightings' of Kuwaiti bids after the USD peg got removed, along with the usual East European interests. PB

GENEVA DS 09:16 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
wise decision I think Oil man... i did the same.... everytime I try to beat the trend , I get hurt... any views on AUDUSD , as I think the consolidation is about to be over here....?

Mumbai Deepak 09:15 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman....Please answer

Mumbai Deepak 04:02 GMT May 21, 2007

Monaco Oil man 09:10 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Morning,

My little scalp in $/CAD got stopped..I m just going to wait for parity then with my shorts as the scalp just wasted 20 pips.

gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 09:06 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 14:03 GMT May 20, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are [1.9593] - 1.9728 - 1.9772* - 1.9862


Melbourne Qindex 14:00 GMT May 20, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.9477 - 1.9552* - 1.9702 - 1.9853

Melbourne Qindex 09:05 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The daily cycle reference indicates that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9864. The center of the weekly cycle is located at [1.9755] and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9685. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.9775] and the lower barrier is expected at 1.9666 // 1.9688*.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9600 - 1.9629* - 1.9644 - 1.9666 // 1.9688* - 1.9710 - 1.9717 - 1.9731 - 1.9746* - 1.9753 - [1.9775] - 1.9804 - 1.9804* - 1.9819 - 1.9833 - 1.9841 - 1.9863* // 1.9884 - 1.9906 - 1.9921* - 1.9950 ...

Mumbai Deepak 08:57 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 06:08 GMT May 21, 2007.

CB...Thanks a lot. Could you load your excel sheet on your site so that I may see the calculation.

I also liked your Kalman Indicator, however, I am not very comfortable programming. Hence if you have any computation of the kalman in an excel sheet, please upload that also. I would test Kalman with the stock indexes here.

Sorry Jay, as this post is not related to trading in particular.

Melbourne Qindex 08:34 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:56 GMT May 19, 2007
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : My view is negative when the market is trading below 1.4869 which is a significant level. The pattern of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that 1.4837 is the upside targeting point. The weekly cycle projected series indicates that 1.4764 // 1.4837 is a barrier and the normal weekly cycle lower limit is defined at 1.4546. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4546. The downside targeting points of my weekly cycle are 1.4255 and 1.4449. The center of the 3-day cycle projected series is positioning at [1.4567]. The normal lower limit is defined at 1.4238 and the lower barrier is located at 1.4361 // 1.4402*.


3-Day Cycle : ... 1.4238 - 1.4293* - 1.4320 - 1.4361 // 1.4402* - 1.4443 - 1.4457 - 1.4484 - 1.4512* - 1.4525 - [1.4567] - 1.4608 - 1.4621* - 1.4649 - 1.4676 - 1.4690 - 1.4731* // 1.4772 - 1.4813 - 1.4840* - 1.4895 ..

Melbourne Qindex 02:08 GMT May 19, 2007
CAD/JPY : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 108.69. The upside targeting range is 115.03 - 115.78. A barrier is expected at 113.54.

Melbourne Qindex 05:23 GMT May 19, 2007
CAD/JPY (Weekly Cycle)  : The normal upper weekly cycle limit is defined at 115.07. The center of the projected series is positioning at [110.47] and the upper barrier is expected at 112.77 // 113.35. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 109.70* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 108.94. The lower barrier of the day cycle projected series is located at 110.29 // 110.48. The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above [111.23]. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above the normal daily cycle upper limit at 112.73.


Daily Cycle : ... 109.73 - 109.98* - 110.10 - 110.29 // 110.48* - 110.73 - 110.85 - 110.98* - [111.23] - 111.48 - 111.60 - 111.73 - 111.98* // 112.17 - 112.35 - 112.48* - 112.73 ...

Melbourne Qindex 08:30 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 13:52 GMT May 20, 2007
CAD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has potential to tackle the upper trading range of 1.1372 - 1.1479. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1201 - 1.1257. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 1.1257. The lower barrier of the daily cycle is positioning at 1.1212 // 1.1230 and the center of the daily cycle projected series is located at 1.1301.


Daily Cycle : ...1.1158 - 1.1182* - 1.1194 - 1.1212 // 1.1230* - 1.1247 - 1.1253 - 1.1265 - 1.1277* - 1.1283 - [1.1301] - 1.1319 - 1.1325* - 1.1337 - 1.1348 - 1.1354 - 1.1372* // 1.1390 - 1.1408 - 1.1420* - 1.1444 ...


Melbourne Qindex 12:58 GMT May 20, 2007
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3445 - 1.3547. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3445. The lower barrier of the 3-day cycle is located at 1.3385 // 1.3411. My daily cycle indicates that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit at 1.3459.


3-Day Cycle : ... 1.3309 - 1.3343* - 1.3360 - 1.3385 // 1.3411* - 1.3437 - 1.3445 - 1.3462 - 1.3479* - 1.3488 - [1.3513] - 1.3539 - 1.3547* - 1.3564 - 1.3581 - 1.3590 - 1.3615* // 1.3641 - 1.3666 - 1.3683* - 1.3718 ...

London NYAM 08:13 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum// Good morning to you sir.
No I wasn't referring to your post, but another post stating how frustrated traders must be who were betting against the general carry trade currency direction theme.
I have as imilar underlying view as yourself that we are creating a dangerous global imbalance and that trading with this trend is becomming increasingly risky. There is a kind of pile in/can't beat them join them mentality that is existing in yen carry trade vehicles. It is unsustainable but where we are in its development is tough to predict. Since we seem to be seeing incearing volatility, it may be that there is some two-way flows available to trade. That would offer some opportunities to go against the furious wind. glgt

hk ab 08:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
who is sitting at 121.30 hard ? LOL....PAR, give it a push, so that we all can enjoy a cheap jap holidays.

Bodrum OEE 07:56 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:51 GMT May 18, 2007



Good morning to you. I hope all is well. I do not know whether with your post above you responded to what I have written. By no means I referred to traders in general, but policymakers and those who find it a bit too easy to understand what is in progress (and invite others to join the trend).

Apologies if misput.

Regards

Syd 07:53 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
U.K. Prime Minister-elect Gordon Brown will remove all U.K. forces from Iraq before the next election under a plan to rebuild support among disillusioned Labour voters, Scotland on Sunday reports.

The newspaper says it has emerged that U.S. President George W. Bush has been briefed by White House officials to expect an announcement from Downing Street within the first 100 days of Brown taking over power from Tony Blair at the end of June.
UK's Brown To Pull Iraq Troops Before Genl Election - Paper

Como Perrie 07:53 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
The states of South Australia, New South Wales and southern parts of Queensland have been severely affected by the drought, which has lasted more than five years in some areas. Prime Minister John Howard said last month he will cut water supplies along the Murray-Darling Basin, a key agricultural and mining region, unless the area receives substantial rain soon. The region provides 5% of Australia's mineral output.

"The viability of planned operations in the Murray-Darling Basin are seriously brought into question," said Melanie Stutsel, director of environmental and social policy at the Minerals Council Australia. "This is an issue that will escalate in time."

The drought comes as miners in other parts of Australia are wrestling with excessive rainfall and cyclones, which have dented the iron-ore output of BHP Billiton in north Western Australia.

London NYAM 07:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
ab//Canada having the second largest potential petrochemical reserves doesnt hurt either.

hk ab 07:33 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
seems cad is the new safe heaven.... if any collapse seen, dlrcad will dive first.

Melbourne Qindex 07:25 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 14:56 GMT May 19, 2007
GBP/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 2.1300 - 2.1606. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the center of the weekly cycle series at [2.1760]. The downside targeting point is 2.1300. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [2.1531] and the lower barrier is located at 2.1353 // 2.1388 and the downside targeting point is 2.1293. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal lower limit at 2.1246. The market is negative when it is trading below the barrier at 2.1731 - 2.1880.


Daily Cycle : ... 2.1246 - 2.1293* - 2.1217 - 2.1353 // 2.1388* - 2.1436 - 2.1459 - 2.1483* - [2.1531] - 2.1578* - 2.1602 - 2.1625 - 2.1673* // 2.1709 -2.1744 - 2.1768* - 2.1815 ..

Gen dk 07:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:23 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Rate Hike Probably Won't Help GBP Now

[Dow Jones] The Bank of England is still likely to hike rates some more despite last Friday's slowdown in retail sales. However, this won't be enough to help the GBP much as the rate rise is well discounted and should help to trigger a sharp slowdown in inflationary pressures later this year.

Melbourne Qindex 07:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:41 GMT May 20, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle)The critical level of my weekly cycle charts is located at 1.0812* - [1.0856]. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0812. The short term targeting points are 1.0634 and 1.0723. A projected barrier is expected at 1.0989. The center of the daily cycle projected series is [1.0870] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0923 // 1.0936.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0765 - 1.0783* - 1.0792 - 1.0805 // 1.0818* - 1.0835 - 1.0844 - 1.0853* - [1.0870] - 1.0888* - 1.0896 - 1.0905 - 1.0923* // 1.0936 - 1.0949 - 1.0957* - 1.0975 ...

Auckland peat 07:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
both my platforms show a huge spike and retracement in Eur/Chf about 30 mins ago. ??

Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The daily cycle reference indicates that the market is strong when it is trading above 1.6568. The 3-day cycle reference suggests that speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.6651. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [1.6595]. It is likely that the market will vibrate around the center of the weekly cycle with an expected magnitude of 1.6573 - 1.6625 for the time being. The upper barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.6684 // 1.6707. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.6565.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.6499 - 1.6510* - 1.6515 - 1.6523 // 1.6531* - 1.6542 - 1.6548 - 1.6553* - [1.6564] - 1.6575* - 1.6580 - 1.6586 - 1.6596* // 1.6601 - 1.6613 - 1.6618* - 1.6629 ...

madrid mm 06:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
CME, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange and the largest regulated marketplace for foreign exchange (FX) trading, today announced that it has expanded its FX team...
Click here

madrid mm 06:21 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
"German Finmin Peer Steinbrueck, G8 host, says talks with hedge funds to continue. G8 did not discuss currency problems."

There is a currency problem ? 8-)

madrid mm 06:20 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
G8 Communique : Global growth robust and more balanced across region, risk to global outlook have abated, high oil prices remain a concern. Makes no mention of FX.

Kuwait has dropped its USD peg and switches to a basket of currencies, in a blow to GCC plans for monetary union. GCC says other members will keep their USD peg. Kuwait cites rising domestic inflation as a reason to abandon USD peg.

PBoC sets USD/CNY mid rate at fresh all time lows of 7.6652 from Friday's moves, versus closing of 7.6686.

Shanghai stocks opened down 3.17%, before rebounding to +0.73% by mid day.

German Finmin Peer Steinbrueck, G8 host, says talks with hedge funds to continue. G8 did not discuss currency problems.

US lawmakers wants more concrete action on CNY from US-China talks this week, despite Friday's China triple combo moves.

US Dep Trsy Robert Kimmitt says US growth to pick up after modest Q1. US Housing sector "stabiising" and sub prime lending woes are not spreading.

MoF Koji Omi says G8 agrees China needs further flexibility in CNY. Japan needs to brace for higher interest rates worldwide..

Canadian Finmin Jim Flaherty says strong CAD a challenge for manufacturers. Key to protecting against strong CAD is to be more productive.

IMF chief Rodrigo Rato says China's move to widen FX band a "step in the right direction." Sees need for tighter monetary policy in China, investors should be wary of carry trade risks.

Surprising uneventful Monday, after Friday's eventful triple-Combo moves by China, and uneventful G8 in Potsdam, Germany.

USD/JPY rose in early session after no mention of FX from G8, with EUR/JPY hitting fresh all time highs of 163.91 (later 163.95).

Mkt players were then cautious of any Cross/JPY, carry trades unwind, in event of huge selloff in China stocks after the "triple" PBoC measures.

Shanghai stocks did fall, -3.17% at its open, and USD/JPY dipped to 121.10 from 121.20, before rising to 121.25 again, mirroring the recovery in China stocks. Cross/JPY back up, with interest from Japanese to buy EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY after earlier dip, as firmer Asian stocks and China seeing further cross/JPY carry trades again.

EUR/CHF broke key 1.6600 option trigger in early trading to fresh all time highs of 1.6615, as EUR/JPY hit all time highs of 163.91 as well, though talks of US investment houses offers above 1.66 now.

EUR, GBP eye any possible demand from M.E., Sovereign, Russian accounts after Kuwait's move to abandon USD peg, with interest stil to buy EUR and GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY on dips. Hearing options related selling in EUR/JPY ahead of 164.00 triggers, while EUR/JPY bids now at 163.50.

EUR/USD offers still coming in at 1.3530-50, while bids at 1.3480-90. GBP/USD support at 1.94 lows.

NZD back up as US invs, Swiss names cover shorts again. CAD remains firm, in absence of FX warnings. AUD bids 0.8200, with some interest to buy AUD/JPY on dips for test of 100 again.

Nikkei +0.96% or 17,567, on back of firmer China/US stocks at record highs. JGBs a tad lower, 10-yr yield +0.020% at 1.655%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.07/121.29, EUR/USD 1.3513/1.3528, GBP/USD 1.9735/1.9756, USD/CHF 1.2273/1.2284, AUD/USD 0.8225/0.8250, NZD/USD 0.7295/0.7319.

Melbourne Qindex 06:18 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is working on the barrier at 1.6581 // 1.6617. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 1.6483* - 1.6507 - 1.6532 - 1.6544 - 1.6581* // 1.6617 - 1.6654 - 1.6678* - 1.6727 ...

Halifax CB 06:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 04:02 GMT May 21, 2007
Your question intrigued me, so I went and did up a simple calculation on the variation in $CAD. It looks like in terms of stationary variance (no trending accounted for), the annualized stationary variance (based on (H-L)/C) is really only reduced by a factor of two, which isn't huge. And that's from a rather noisy time, during the main part of the decline; from late 98 to mid 2002, it was pretty much the same as we have now (before that, it was _really_ quiet, by upwards of a factor of 15dB at one point in 83...

Melbourne Qindex 06:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : The current expected tradingranges are 1.6528 - [1.6652] - 1.6776

madrid mm 05:57 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Private derivatives deals soaring, finds BIS

The total outstanding value of all derivatives contracts arranged in private deals around the world has now surged above $400,000bn for the first time, new estimates from the Bank for International Settlements will show today.

The rise, estimated by the Basel-based body, means that the sector swelled by more than a third during 2006, from a total of $297,670bn in December 2005 to $415,183bn in December last year. Click here

madrid mm 05:51 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Gm FX jedi,

Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference. ~Winston Churchill

HK [email protected] 05:24 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Don't forget that a large chunk of the Shanghai stock exchange is owned by different state owned entities including the police and army.
The biggest Shanghai market manipulators might be those Gov. agents; I mean some big chairs officials.

So what do you think? They will cut their bread and butter just like that because of a liquidity crunch or interest rate increase? Meaning a crush just like that?

These are the new Robbers Barons of PROC:
Gov. official which eventually will ripoff their own proletariat.
The parabolic ascend of the market may go on for a while until the last proletariat-idiot will deposit his money in..
And then crush and pump again. It is likely a completely nationalized stock market, something no one has ever seen before. Maybe this is the no-common sense factors moving things there.

Syd 04:51 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
PBOC interest rate hike is not the primary concern, rather it's the level of current investment in the Chinese stock markets that's been worrisome, says Tony Yam, chief investment officer at Shanghai-based fund manager Simon Murray China, the Shanghai index has gone up "too high in too short a period of time," he said. Friday's rate hike doesn't appear to be doing much to cool China's red hot stock market, he noted, adding that though institutional investors have worried about additional interest rate hikes, retail investors "are not so well educated." Further rate hikes are likely, he said, but Chinese authorities will probably not do anything drastic. "I don't think they will do anything radical to hurt the economy. The economy is still more important than the stock market," Yam says. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index +0.6% at 4,053.39.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:42 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
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whilst AUD/USD & EURO/USD are seen as my Best Trades Today
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To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above).

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Melbourne Qindex 04:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The monthly cycle projected series indicates that the market is positive when it is trading above the supporting range of [2.4084] - [2.4113]. The current expected trading ranges from the month cycle are [2.4084] - 2.4234* - 2.4309 - 2.4384 - 2.4534*

Melbourne Qindex 04:03 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The current expected trading ranges are 2.4059 - 2.4106* - 2.4199 - 2.4292 - 2.4338

Mumbai Deepak 04:02 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 21:31 GMT May 20, 2007.

Oilman...I think that you are one of the best analysts here. Congrats for being right on top of USD-CAD following "the underlying trend".

I saw your post of 14:49 GMT February 23, 2007, which talks about the Volatility of $-CAD. I would like to know, which volatility are you reffering to, Historical or the Implied Volatility. How do you compute this volatility, if it was any other volatility. Do you have any charts of the volatility to show how it had behaved historically (May-2004) relative to how it was behaving in Mid-Feb 2007, before the breakdown in $-CAD.

I think that "The forward secrets to the markets always goes through the historical doors."

Syd 03:37 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Another China interest rate hike likely in 2H, says Huang Jinlao, senior researcher at Bank of China's Studies of International Finance, bank's independent research department. Says latest PBOC measures' impact on stocks limited; says PBOC should raise 1-year deposit rate to 5%, from current 3.06% for effective stock market cooling; that could bring average market P/E down to 20X from current 40X, he says. "Apparently, the government meant to warn the local investors against asset bubbles by such mild policies, rather than to trigger a crash in the local bourses", says Huang.

Syd 03:24 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
NZ Adj Apr Credit Card Billings -1.0% Vs Mar; +7.8% On-Yr

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle chart, the frequency numbers of 1.2274 and 1.2379 are more or less the same. This would indicate that the market can easily move ahead towards 1.2379. A barrier is located at [1.2326] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The daily cycle charts indicate that a projected supporting level is expected at 1.2203 - 1.2205. The uper barrier is located at 1.2349 // 1.2363.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2184 - 1.2203* - 1.2212 - 1.2226 // 1.2239* - 1.2258 - 1.2267 - 1.2276* - [1.2294] - 1.2313* - 1.2322 - 1.2331 - 1.2349* // 1.2363 - 1.2377 - 1.2386* - 1.2404 ...

Syd 03:05 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
China May Turn To Direct Measures On Shrs - RBS
Dow Jones] Failure of PBOC's Friday package of tightening measures to dent investor sentiment on China's share markets will likely prompt new approach in coming weeks, "as the shock tactics aren't working as effectively as the government would have liked", says Ben Simpfendorfer at Royal Bank of Scotland. Adds government may take more direct approach such as imposing restrictions on opening stock trading accounts; "but it's very difficult for the government because they're also trying to promote a healthy market, so a more direct approach is problematic."

Syd 02:59 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Foxtons puts up ‘Sold’ sign as BC Partners steps in for £390m
The sale of Foxtons, an agency once as famous for its sharp practices as for the fleet of colourful Minis used around the capital by its salespeople, is bound to prompt fears that Jon Hunt, its founder and owner, is making a call on the top of the UK housing market.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article1816578.ece

Halifax CB 02:48 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone still using my KF routines in MT4 please see my post on the Help forum for an update.

Melbourne Qindex 02:26 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As shown in my monthly cycle projected series and the trading raference (see details in my website) the market is trapped in the range of [1.2189] - [1.2321] for the time being. The market is heading towards 1.2321 when it is trading above 1.2227.

Syd 02:24 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
China's central bank will take more aggressive action if its latest moves to tighten liquidity and widen the dollar-yuan trading band don't help curb imbalances in the economy, according to Yu Yongding, a prominent academic and a former adviser to the People's Bank of China.

Friday's three-pronged policy move by the PBOC to raise lending and deposit rates, hike banks' reserve requirement ratio and widen the currency's trading band is "totally right," Yu said in an opinion piece published in the China Securities Journal Monday.

Como Perrie 02:11 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
-German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck did not show any concerns about the value of the euro against the yen, his Japanese counterpart Koji Omi said following a bilateral meeting with Steinbrueck. The euro has surged to record highs against the yen in recent weeks.

-Steinbrueck and Omi also welcomed China's move to slightly increase the flexibility of the yuan.

-But Omi said he stood full-square behind the US' position to continue to press for more flexibility of the yuan.

-'We would like even further moves towards a free market,' he said.

-Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said the current large capital inflows into Russia could pose a major foreign exchange risk.

dc CB 02:08 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
if you scroll thru the other COT charts on this site...the only significant change: AD, BP, JY, SF, EU...is found on the CD chart. This is the only one of them that has had a switch of sides... Lg Specs and the Comm.

http://www.freecotcharts.com/cot_charts/CD.PNG

to view the others just change the CD to any of the others...must use caps. (/CD.PNG)

Syd 01:41 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
Investment banks face hedge fund warning
FT.com
Investment banks have become less disciplined in their dealings with hedge funds, the Bank for International Settlements will warn on Monday.

The warning will come as efforts to introduce stronger controls over the hedge fund industry increased over the weekend.

Melbourne Qindex 01:38 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It is importance to maintain above [1.2258] in order to provide a positive tone in my system.

Melbourne Qindex 01:32 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It seems to me that the market is heading towards 1.2542 and it may even want to tackle 1.2735.

Syd 00:04 GMT May 21, 2007 Reply   
IMM commitment of traders report shows net JPY short noncommercial positions vs USD at highest level since Feb 13, up at 127,896 contracts in week to May 15 from 112,259 previous week. Suggests carry traders encouraged by FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged while repeating inflation still top worry, indicating near-term rate cut unlikely

 




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