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Forex Forum Archive for 05/22/2007

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ldn jas 23:39 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 20:19 GMT May 22, 2007
where is your stop for gbp/jpy short please - do you still see a turn around happening soon ?...thnx

HK [email protected] 23:38 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=20070523story_23-5-2007_pg5_23

The US-China Business Council described as a ‘myth’ the argument that China’s undervalued currency created a large US trade deficit and prevented American companies from selling more to China.

It acknowledged that China did need to move faster with reforms to allow its exchange rate to better reflect market forces. But it also pointed out that an international think tank, Oxford Economics, estimated that even a 25 percent revaluation of the yuan against the US dollar would decrease the total deficit by only 20 billion dollars after two years.
-----------------------------------------------------------
If that is the case what are the americans talking about faster demands for Yuan revaluation?
-----------------------------------------------------------
Maybe the hidden agenda of the US, is to weaken China from inside by Forcing an internal economic turmoil by a fast revaluation. So if the trade deficit will not be affected what else do the americans expect?

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
wow JF - - what you posted on Help is impressive...anyone would want to know how...

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:23 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
now they talk:
2316 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY may rise with sentiment USD-bullish amid prevailing view Fed won't cut rates any time soon, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank; but with no fresh catalysts expected to emerge for now, a rise above 122.00, where many options-related defensive sell orders await, looks tough. Pair, last at 121.62 on EBS, likely to spend session in 121.40-121.90 band. But in longer run, pair will still probably go above 122.00, so now may be good chance to buy, trader adds.

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:22 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
2319 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY may rise as Europe rates still far more attractive with BOJ set to keep rates ultra-low for a while, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank; but adds revisiting 163.94 all-time high looks difficult as no fresh cues expected in Asia session, profit-taking interest still strong in 163.90-164.00 area. Expects 163.30-163.90 range, with cross last at 163.69 on EBS. EUR/USD bias downward with pair's failure to benefit much overnight from positive German ZEW (at 24 vs 16.5 previously) suggesting players way too long pair; first support at 1.3400, pair last at 1.3451.

Wellington, N.Z. 23:19 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Today’s FX Trading Forecasts:

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Sofia Kaprikorn 23:17 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
just saw onDaily USDJPY is breaking Feb 23 Highs at 121.61...

nj jf 23:13 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
gbpyen depends on 240.20 goes above that potential to become midpoint 238.20/240.20/242.20

euryen shud be 163.95 if not 164.20
anyway see what they do with eurusd thats the key ingredient to the mix.

RIC fxq 23:09 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 23:05 GMT

ejy is laggard of late, a follower to gjy and ujy not a leader.

indicates greater vulnerability in a reaction IMHO

nj jf 23:05 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
it shud be higher imo

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:59 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
I sold some at 44 to 54 but now reversed - long eurjpy at 63..

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:57 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
jf - do you like the EURJPY from the buy side?

I see it now Hourly bouncing of the Trendline (161.05 -- 162.60) support..

Halifax CB 22:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Lol; me & sports, my friends would be amused......

nj jf 22:33 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
no different forum-sports

Halifax CB 22:28 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
jf - between the censored and the mispellings, there was a "probably". But as a forex discussion board, it just seems to be lots of noise & people flogging systems and trying to gather groupies. This board provides a whole lot more info, especially if you subscribe to the other side. (BTW, if it is the board I'm thinking of - did you like the avatar? Skull and cigarrette? - It's by van Gogh...)

Halifax CB 22:13 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
rx forum? (censored, sometines, but it seems to be all noise).

BTW on $CAD, to start closing it might be a good idea (for me) to wait until after tomorrow's close, since todayas barely bothered even the fastest daily filter.

nj jf 22:06 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
cb is that you on rx forum ? halifax ?

Halifax CB 22:05 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:59 GMT May 22, 2007

FWIW. a regression on the current leg of the shortest filter, would put it hitting my trendline at about 1.0885, around Japan close. But at these levels, that estimate is pretty well swamped by noise.

Halifax CB 21:59 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY - well it looks like it's going to keep trying for awhile....As for ST targets, I don't have any. $CAD looks to be trying to form a bottom (it's been a while since it was this flat this liong), which leads to an increase in volatility (usually) over a period of a few days. I'm currently short LT, and will probably start backing out at my center trend line (currently 1.0897) and aim to be out entirely by the 2nd up deviation (currently about 1.1) on the hourlies. They are both moving down at around 0.85 pips/hr....

London NYAM 21:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB//Liquid dynamics. Ive heard of a couple of whiz kids using it for trading. I prefer the penguin method. LOL thank for an enjoyable trading day. Im off to bed mate.

Gen dk 21:41 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 21:28 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
HALIFAX CB,

Yep, seems like it. What is your near term target for usd/cad CB, Thanks.

Halifax CB 21:26 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:45 GMT May 22, 2007
Alcan board recommends rejecting ALCOA bid, so usd/cad rises

more interestingly, it failed ~ 1.0875. Still a ways to go to an uptrend.....

GVI john 21:24 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
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GVI john 21:19 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Halifax CB 20:56 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
istanbul 20:13 GMT May 22, 2007
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/

ad 20:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
any one recomand censored
pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez

Halifax CB 20:46 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - lol, nothing a little conditioner or a good hairpiece won't fix :)
It's actually pretty simple - if you try and measure the behaviour of water in a stream by throwing in a log (the equivalent of too long average) you'll get some idea of the general flow but not a clear idea of what the water is like. If you throw in a wood chip, it might just just get caught in an eddy and travel incircles (it's path knots) - the equivalent of a too short average. Usually there's something in between that tells you when it's safe to swim, and a good expectation of where you'll end up if you jump in. Then there's always the penguin method (push someone in first...)

USA BAY 20:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Alcan board recommends rejecting ALCOA bid, so usd/cad rises

London NYAM 20:19 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:02 GMT May 22, 2007// Knots and Tangles?! You learned about hair issues in grad school? Seriously very confused. Are these nonlinear stochastic names that I’ve missed? Glad it stimulated thoughts even though I don’t quite understand them.

LKWD JJ 16:32 GMT May 22, 2007// I play footy on Tuesdays but good guess about sport exit. Not much of a golfer.

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:03 GMT May 22, 2007// re gbyjpy// I am still short this pair but its not looking ideal. Cable is on a mission and will probably turn north after the minutes come out tomorrow. It won’t be a straight line, but it will probably be enough to blow out GBPJPY potentially above the resistance at 240.20/25 tomorrow. Unfortunately, big news on the dollar front (which I believe will show continued bad underlying fundamentals in the US) won’t be out until Thursday. Not good for the cross as we will have to ride out tomorrows Cable news. Ultimately im seeing the USDJPY correcting this week but it will probably be after a nasty pop in the crosses. Best of luck.

AMS MAXXIM 20:14 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
a storm is comingi?q10 says it's wok wok

istanbul 20:13 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
does anyone know where can i find the exchange rate of dollar and rouble the year of 2002??

Las Vegas Daniel 19:59 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
I would not presume to know what DR Q was thinking, however – if by approaching storm he/she was making a metaphorical suggestion that the markets are going to move violently and catch people off guard in the immediate future, I would have to agree – a storm is coming. I would suggest you investigate what analysts who specialize in Elliott Waves are currently saying about the markets for detailed information.

USA BAY 19:42 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know what storm DR Q, was talking about. tia

hk ab 19:25 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, any views on aud?

St. Annaland Bob 19:16 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
the FED man in Richmond suggests that many people are about to become poor.

Bahrain Bahrain1 19:03 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds good day to you all.....
seems China's story didn't work this time.....
stock market still holding.....but for how long??

Any view on GBPYEN plzzzzz......GL all.

Halifax CB 18:31 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 17:27 GMT May 22, 2007
Yours came in fine. Responses should be in your e-mail....

St. Annaland Bob 18:09 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
back and realize that USDJPY range for today is less than 40pips ... that means, higher high or lower low during the rest of this NY session, if not then ma ma mia the next session ... happy and safe trades!

Como Perrie 18:05 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
btw those US-China talks first round today are boring. I'll see tomorrow. More action less infos could hopefully be tomorrow the day.

Como Perrie 18:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 18:01 GMT May 22, 2007

I know that axiom...but is little more complex than that..

Sofia mik 18:01 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Como,
" many info, little knowledge'"

Halifax CB 17:54 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY looks a little tottery here at the Feb/23 resistance. Next one up is from early Feb, around 122~122.10.

Halifax CB 17:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 17:27 GMT May 22, 2007
They're probably snoozing....Anyway, check your mail....

Como Perrie 17:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 17:47 GMT May 22, 2007

:))) ... find It here

LONDON -- The latest quarterly hedge book survey from Societe Generale, compiled for the bank by GFMS Ltd., records that the global delta-adjusted gold mine hedge book contracted by 128 tonnes during the first quarter of this year.

This compares with mine production of 580 tonnes, meaning that the dehedging activity reduced mine supply by 22%, taking net mine supply to 451 tonnes, compared with global demand of 827 tonnes (the balance is made up by scrap supplies and official sales plus shifts in investment holdings and inventories).



Sofia mik 17:47 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Como do you us Pert mint CERTIFICATE

hk ab 17:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
eur/chf cross seems suddenly lower down. Brewing storm?

Como Perrie 17:41 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Indonesian prosecutors have submitted an appeal document in a bid to overturn a ruling clearing a local unit of Newmont Mining Corp in a high-profile pollution case, officials said on Tuesday

Como Perrie 17:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
We have seen a big round of strikes and higher taxations globally for mining companies recently. Today another problem in an Venezuelan mine, adding to South Africa, Peru, New Zealand and Australia, plus the higher export taxes out of Chinese mines hiked last days.

Hecla Mining Co said it has halted gold mining at Mina Isidora in Venezuela as local residents have blocked access to the mine

Sofia mik 17:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB , I send a mail to Jay but no responce yet.
Pls find me, if you like on [email protected] :or skype name : dinkbg.
glgt to all!

Halifax CB 17:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:15 GMT May 22, 2007
Just a thought - I mentioned earlier the 50 hour filter as being roughly the dividing line beteen uptrends and downtrends; thinking about it and looking at it more closely it is more properly the dividing line between coherent trends (ones with similar direction) and incoherent trends (ones that cross & recross each other in various directions). It's something I hadn't thought about before (though I have vague memories of grad school courses about knots and tangles, but that was ages ago), and might make an interesting indicator, so thanks for sparking the thought....

LKWD JJ 17:01 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
usdcad looking like up move soon. (1hr and 4hr charts).

Sofia mik 16:34 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
CB, tnx!

Halifax CB 16:33 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 16:29 GMT May 22, 2007
Sure.

LKWD JJ 16:32 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
looks like fx'ers play golf on tuesday

Sofia mik 16:29 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB , can I ask your e-mail from Jay , pls

amman 16:17 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
what do u think about the GBPUSD !??

London NYAM 16:15 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Fun fun fun. Time to run. Thank you guys for the help with the loonie. GL.

Halifax CB 16:15 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
I still have 1.96 in the cross hairs. I think it would take a sharp up move of ~100p to break the current counter trend (though I'll probably bail if the fast line starts retracing too much....)
Chart

London NYAM 16:11 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Watch the GBPJPY cross too its actually giving USDJPY some problems and might help cap the move for today while the EURGBP cross is stuck.

amman 16:05 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
just broke it !

London NYAM 15:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hourly resistance on USDGBP May 9th --May 16th at 1.9655/58 proving tougher than expected to break.

London NYAM 15:41 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY next resistance t/l at 240.26.

London NYAM 15:40 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:37 GMT May 22, 2007// If it gets that far maybe a re-entry option after stopping out. Ill keep that figure at hand should we break the stop. It really seems like a move like this needs some time to breath in.

Halifax CB 15:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - Keep thinkng about your client's problem re $CAD & I know it's not much help -but back to the weeklies, $CAD likes to retrace up moves down to the 1,62 Fib level (at least) since the downdraft started a couple of years ago. The target for that is around 1.0425....

London NYAM 15:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY hitting new highs. Setting off stops above 239.90

Como Perrie 15:30 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:19 GMT May 22, 2007

But honestly am happy when public or state owned simil private workers are striking, as they will not get paid at least for those days.

Como Perrie 15:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:19 GMT May 22, 2007

Yeap,, the strikes coming out from a long saga of the privatization process from state owned companies, as Alitalia.

btw interesting the ozzie

London NYAM 15:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USDGBP seems to have peaked a break below 1.9730 opens up 1.9718/20 and a resumption of the correction to 1.9660/70

PAR 15:19 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Thousands of european air passengers stranded because of strikes in Italy .

Como Perrie 15:03 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Am even tempted to add on usdcad upper rallies if any for a test of 1.05 1.06 into tomorrow if goes the agressive way. Picture is still extremely bearish overall.

NYC beyond_destiny 14:57 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
it seems the volume is increasing without major announcement.

San Juan Lil 14:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Special greetings to you both...

Como Perrie 14:48 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Do not know Purk, complex It is. Me tending to see parity in the next coupla months, but might be wrong.

The Netherlands Purk 14:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Finally Lill came out of her hiding place. This forum needs your help becoming more peacefully...

At the meantime i see the Loonie is due for a flight up that is. Let the drums start to roffel..... that is Dutch.

San Juan Lil 14:41 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone!
Swissy failing to rally above 200MA in the daily, second day in a row. FWIW
GL GT

Como Perrie 14:39 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Technically speaking if this usdcad can withstand into tomorrow the lower figure at 1.08 might do some on upper, hard to think however of chances to see 1.10 soon again. So far anything might happen there.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hello all! just looking a 2 hour EURJPY chart and some lines are very interesting:
> Rising trend line 161.05 -- 162.60 - the recent price is bouncing up from it...

>> tiny trend down from 163.91 top - - 163.60
so we have here a very tight triangle - which is about to break in the next hour - so for small intraday action we can judge from the side of the break.. guesswork of course..

however my idea to try small short at market with tight stop around 163.44 (20 day MA)

Como Perrie 14:36 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Doubt the market beliefs to Lacker on housing. Subprimes and the unpaid builders is a tough battle there going on.

NYC beyond_destiny 14:32 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
buy extra on break...USD correction is favored

London NYAM 14:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 14:10 GMT May 22, 2007//
Thanks sticking with the double barrelled GV support from you and Q. My friend thanks you both (nice chart by the way). GLGT

Melbourne Qindex 14:25 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:22 GMT - Sit tight and wait for the market to tell you the right direction.

Sofia mik 14:24 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
FED' s Lacker on CNBC -

HK REVDAX 14:22 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 14:19//Good! Which way?

Melbourne Qindex 14:19 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:14 GMT - A big storm is coming.

HK REVDAX 14:14 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Why is the mkt so quiet? Wait for what? Tks

Halifax CB 14:10 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Deepak - thanks. Good to see folks buying gold, btw :)

NYAM; I've taken my strongest supporting line - the one that is currently flat (anything longer is in downtrend, anything shorter is in uptrend) at about 50 hours. That currently stands at about 1.0820.
2 deviations below that is 1.0765 (meaning if the uptrend is to continue on this time frame, just about all trades should be above this), so maybe that is the support line you might use. Unfortunately current levels are very close to the upper 2 deviation line. which sort of puts an upper bound for the moment on movement - unless the trend changes. So it pretty much confirms (for me) Dr. Q's estimate.

London NYAM 14:10 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Guys. I know it sounds like an agony aunt "I have this "friend" that has a problem", but it really isnt me. Anyway he wants to put the stop at 1.0760 and i suggested below Qs 1.0723 at 1.0720. I like JJs Trading basics assumption that you assume you are opening the position now. Ill check out ALs post too. Thanks again GV community. Ill see if I can package some decent advice.

Como Perrie 14:08 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:52 GMT May 22, 2007

Looking to the distance the approach looking as quant, so risks could be distributed elsewhere. In case an option covering for the time being would be better than a stop imo.

LKWD JJ 14:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
london look over in the trading club as AL has a post/video on usdcad.

madrid mm 14:01 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:29 GMT May 22, 2007

worried ? A trader should not worried.

Money mangement is the KEY !!!

LKWD JJ 14:00 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
so its a double or nothing. as its half way there already. basically the approach should be , that if he was to buy here ,(im not implying he does) where is the stop? and forget about where hes coming from , as that money is gone anyway as of right now.

London NYAM 13:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
JJ//I think all this talk about parity is freaking him out.

Como Perrie 13:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Certain types of industrial development simply may not be feasible over the upcoming years, hence unsolvable maybe... But might be anything else hidden at the very top. A global managed decadence could be well an option too, but they do not want to manage It globally It seems from Wo's words. They want to go their way, and Paulson is getting short of time too.

LKWD JJ 13:51 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
london why bother with a stop now?

Mumbai Deepak 13:50 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:20 / The RBI in my observation only impacts the domestic currency, the USD-INR. I have never seen them impacting any crosses so far. They also dont impact the Metals.

RBI recently was continously defending the 44.00 level in Dec-Feb 07 Period but once they left loose, the USD fell real real quick.

In India the Gold Prices have fallen 10% in 2007 due to a strong currency and all the locals are using this as a "God Sent" once in a life time opportunity to buy it.

Our FM while giving the 2006 Budget, said that they were going to see that the base metals prices will not increase internationally due to speculation, as if he was planning to send fighter jets to the NYMEX or LME.

London NYAM 13:49 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Toronto KH 13:44 GMT May 22, 2007//Don't Laugh. His average is 1.1760.

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:35 / the AFX headline says "US Treasury chief says US, China must 'maintain partnership' to solve unsolvable".

From that version, it would appear Paulson is putting the burden of responsability on China. Why would one want to "solve unsolvable" ? What is in it for Paulson, wether "unsolvable" remains unsolved or gets solved ?

Como Perrie 13:44 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
One of the arguments on table is pollution and air-food toxicity, as cancer and other modern symptoms growing rapidly among the chinese pop and abroad already.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chinaenv.html


http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2005-07-04-pollution-china-cover_x.htm

Toronto KH 13:44 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
NYAM. What is his entry level?

Halifax CB 13:44 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:42 GMT May 22, 2007
I'd go with Dr. Q's, as I'm only seeing open space below that.

Halifax CB 13:43 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
FWIW, that's at best sideways on the 4 hours, and still down on the dailies...Doesn't look too good for longs.

London NYAM 13:42 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
CB//Thanks anything below that . I asaw Dr Qs 1.0723 and 1.0779. Do you see similar levels. Really havent studies this pair to get my own feel and don't want to advise him with a patched up EW analysis...

Halifax CB 13:39 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:29 GMT May 22, 2007
1.0825, but it's pretty weak . FWIW, I have it starting a (very weak) uptrend ATM, but that could be broken by any houly contained below approx the current levels.

Como Perrie 13:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Paulson said bit earlier that US-China confrontation helps to solve the unsolvable. What was he thinking about...just notch of people around know.

Como Perrie 13:32 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Now Wu answering on wires, talking of trade protectionism of mutual trust etc. about confrontation does no good at all and about blaming other sides for domestic problems.
Tough answering to Paulson imo

London NYAM 13:29 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Any suggestons for a stop loss on the Canadian? I have a very worried trader desperate for a support area?

London NYAM 13:26 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USDGBP// Is tracing its way up but there is significant upside resistance between 1.9770/80 It is likely to cap any further advances in the short term but there seems to be growing signals that this pair is looking up.
USDJPY// As per previous post I still prefer a head-fake to 122.00/30 but that is getting little help while the ceiling is so low.

Halifax CB 13:20 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 13:10 GMT May 22, 2007
I don't follow INR; curious as to whether you have seen in the past whether intervention of the RBI has had impact on other ccy pairs or metals?

Mumbai Deepak 13:10 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:01 / Agreed 100% JP.

BTW, it was another day, another 9-year Low for the USD-INR. Closed at 40.5725. A break below 40.50 targets 40.20-10, where RBI expected to come in.

Melbourne Qindex 13:06 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.9559 - 1.9595 - 1.9667 - 1.9740* - 1.9776

Mtl JP 13:01 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Deepak 12:07 / I would argue that they are Rational. Sometimes market may force one party's hand: hence my "their motives may differ" and no judgement, just simple acceptance.

madrid mm 12:55 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:37 GMT May 22, 2007

the moral is --
" Don t do as i ....... Do as I ..... "
8-)

NY RP 12:49 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:43 GMT May 22, 2007
I believe that we are in chop with mild upward bias. Very soon we will see the 700 break and a dance to 750. The bigger question is what happens there. Do we see a mild correction or do we dance to 850 to 888 area. Either way 1600 is the re-evaluate level.

Como Perrie 12:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Paulson was lately on the wires quoting in between the It's not anymore about currency only, but about opening China's markets.
Sounds pretty pushy as this time they want a deal almost done. Very difficult to predict outcome of such. Lawyers apparently have a deadline june/july to start with higher tax and tariffs if agreements will not be drawn down.

hk ab 12:43 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
RP//Do you think the train to 700 and then 750 have started yet?

Halifax CB 12:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Apropros of absolutely nothing at all, I always find it fascinating that here in the West we have this "Protestant Work Ethic" that includes (in theory) ideas like work hard, save your money, don't complain about your burden, etc. Now that China is doing exactly that (and us the opposite), we get PO'd. Should be a moral in that somewhere....

NYC beyond_destiny 12:29 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
reserved chfyen short @ 98.6 / reversed again @ 98.7 t/p open/ S/L 98.8

Close half cadyen short @ 112

Double loonie long @ 1.0836 S/L 1.801 T/P weekly open/1.1/1.116

Market is a bit choppy and Meeting of Vice Wu and Paulson may trigger the rally of USD and Yen respectively... CNY has rallied almost 7 cents in two weeks and cnyyen is eyeing psy 6 ...

NY RP 12:23 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:18 GMT May 22, 2007
Good observation but the US probably won't like talking about their money manager to other clients. LOL
It is amazing that Japan is right there if not in front on China with currency manipulation and HUGE forex reserves. Between China and Japan they control over almost 25% of teh worlds reserves. The yen is a lost casue. Maybe this is when it will turn. Too many other investments to focus on then manipulated porducts. GL

PAR 12:18 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Chinese officials may complain to Paulson about weak yen and too low japanese manipulated interest rates .

St. Annaland Bob 12:09 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 12:07 GMT May 22, 2007

one is taking profit and the other enters loss, ce la vie

Mumbai Deepak 12:07 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:51 / "Every Trade has a Buyer and a Seller. They both think that they are Rational." LOL

GVI john 11:57 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The following is still vaild :-

Melbourne Qindex 10:05 GMT May 21, 2007
EUR/CAD : It is importance to stabilize around 1.4626 otherwise the next target is 1.4218.

Halifax CB 11:55 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:54 GMT May 22, 2007
And good morning to you!

Melbourne Qindex 11:54 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:49 GMT - Good evening!

GVI john 11:51 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

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Updated twice daily. Access GVI free Chart Points and Moving Averages

Mtl JP 11:51 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
fxq 11:35 / every trade must have a seller and a buyer in order for it to happen and their motives may differ. Free market does not question them, just says "yours" or "mine", lol.

Halifax CB 11:50 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:49 GMT May 22, 2007
Sorry, that's re. eur/usd....

Halifax CB 11:49 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Dr, Q - Getting similar off mine. Chart
(Ignore the extra lines; the important ones are the long term average in thick white with dashed extension, the current fast line in thick light blue, the deviation channel and the crossed horizontal & vertical red taget lines....A break out of the deviation channel would be (for me) a clear failure signal on the current counter trend.

Melbourne Qindex 11:48 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:32 GMT May 22, 2007
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at [0.8201] - 0.8238. The market is positive when it is able to trade above 0.8238. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8229] and the lower barrier is expected at 0.8165 // 0.8178.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8126 - 0.8143* - 0.8152 - 0.8165 // 0.8178* - 0.8195 - 0.8204 - 0.8212* - [0.8229] - 0.8247* - 0.8255 - 0.8264 - 0.8281* // 0.8294 - 0.8307 - 0.8315 - 0.8333 ...


Melbourne Qindex 02:04 GMT May 22, 2007
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 120.51 - 121.83. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 120.67. The center of the daily cycle is located at [121.13] and the lower barrier is expected at 120.24 // 120.41.


Daily Cycle : ... 119.70 - 119.94* - 120.06 - 120.24 // 120.41* - 120.59 - 120.65 - 120.77 - 120.89* - 120.95 - [121.13] - 121.31 - 121.37* - 121.49 - 121.61 - 121.66 - 121.84* // 122.02 - 122.20 - 122.32* - 122.56 ...


Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT May 22, 2007
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is negative when it is trading below 1.9662. The center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.9773]. It is likely that the market will challenge the lower barrier at 1.9648 // 1.9673. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit at 1.9574.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9574 - 1.9607* - 1.9623 - 1.9648 // 1.9673* - 1.9698 - 1.9707 - 1.9723 - 1.9740* - 1.9748 - [1.9773] - 1.9798 - 1.9806* - 1.9823 - 1.9840 - 1.9848 - 1.9873* // 1.9898 - 1.9923 - 1.9939* - 1.9973 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:32 GMT May 22, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle charts is located at 1.0812* - [1.0856]. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0812. The short term targeting points are 1.0634 and 1.0723. The center of the daily cycle projected series is [1.0849]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.0779 // 1.0793.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0737 - 1.0755* - 1.0765 - 1.0779 // 1.0793* - 1.0807 - 1.0811 - 1.0821 - 1.0830* - 1.0835 - [1.0849] - 1.0863 - 1.0867* - 1.0877 - 1.0886 - 1.0891 - 1.0905* // 1.0919 - 1.0933 - 1.0942* - 1.0961 ...


Melbourne Qindex 01:23 GMT May 22, 2007
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle chart, the frequency numbers of 1.2274 and 1.2379 are more or less the same. This would indicate that the market can easily move ahead towards 1.2379. A barrier is located at [1.2326] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The center of the daily cycle is located at [1.2271]. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the daily cycle normal upper limit at 1.2355


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2187 - 1.2201* - 1.2208 - 1.2218 // 1.2229* - 1.2239 - 1.2243 - 1.2250 - 1.2257* - 1.2260 - [1.2271] - 1.2281 - 1.2285* - 1.2292 - 1.2299 - 1.2302 - 1.2313* // 1.2323 - 1.2334 - 1.2341* - 1.2355 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:12 GMT May 22, 2007
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle charts the market was able to consolidate between 1.3444 - 1.3551. The market is under pressure when it is trading below [1.3498] which is the center of the weekly cycle. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.3475] and the lower barrier is located at 1.3431 // 1.3440. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit defined at 1.3405.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3405 - 1.3417* - 1.3423 - 1.3431 // 1.3440* - 1.3449 - 1.3452 - 1.3457 - 1.3463* - 1.3466 - [1.3475] - 1.3483 - 1.3486* - 1.3492 - 1.3498 - 1.3501 - 1.3510* // 1.3518 - 1.3527 - 1.3533* - 1.3544 ...


Melbourne Qindex 11:43 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:38 GMT - Barriers are minor supporting or resistants. It is good for a short period of time frame.

Melbourne Qindex 11:39 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
ny platt 11:33 GMT - Those projections are from my system.

Mtl JP 11:38 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:58 / I should probably know better by now, so plz bear w/me: do u use "barrier" equally for Support as for Resistance price points ? tia

Melbourne Qindex 11:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
ny platt 11:33 GMT - Someone is selling!

RIC fxq 11:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
ny platt 11:33 GMT

don't know why you are fighting a lot of analysts who are saying the reverse

ny platt 11:33 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
quindex i really dont know where you get those projections from, everyone is buying the euro/usd like crazy aiming for 1.3600

Mtl JP 11:21 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:06 / when gasoline prices rise here, govt's gasoline tax revenues are stratospheric (as they are a percentage on top of the base gas cost). similar in europe ?

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Keep an eye on 1.3378.

PAR 11:06 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
European gasoline prices at new record high .Bigger problem than wage negotiations .

Melbourne Qindex 10:58 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Other barriers are located at 1.3402 - 1.3416 - 1.3439.

Como Perrie 10:49 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
In the background, however, an announcement by Novartis' pension fund that it plans to invest in precious metals is 'bullish', said Steel at HSBC. The fund will invest 4 pct of its 11.37 bln usd pension fund in precious metals.

Como Perrie 10:44 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Actually the Yuan today has kept around yesterday's levels approx. Tomorrow will be more interesting if anything.

Melbourne Qindex 10:43 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.3409 is going to be challenged.

PAR 10:38 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
New Bri / Look at google news . Japan .

Como Perrie 10:31 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:09 GMT May 22, 2007

Purkie...the loonie might do anything at current levels of models unreability. Btw demolitions?? Why really nothing serius is going on except speeches form top bankers abusing of pshycho pharma. The real theme is posted on the Bob's earlier message. Markets will wait as no one knows the outcome ...which is nothing to be demolished just waiting the things to clear out.

hk ab 10:28 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
anyone see this dlr/jpy will be capped 122 in m/t again?

St. Annaland Bob 10:18 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Wu Yi & Paulson later today, Wu Yi will tell Paulson early DC time that USD/CNY stands at lowest price ever. add export duties and Chinese wallet willing to get open to purchase for full price some US hi-tech goods if the US will only agree. will that be enough to bring the disco lights back to the trading platforms?

The Netherlands Purk 10:09 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:02 GMT May 22, 2007

Than you better write it in Italiano because the tone of all your messages are pretty demolitious imo.

Loonie can not go up it seems, so still expect 10780. If not today it will be a crash tomorrow with 120 pip range. Maybe i consider a short with a 20 pip stop.

New Brighton gvm 10:09 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:25 GMT where are you getting this stuff from re: LDP losing the next election? Absolute rubbish

Plovidv Gotin 10:07 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Euro low 1.3442 means that bayers dont leave 1.4111(tg from 1.2865)

PAR 09:25 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Japanese LDP may loose july japanese elections due to their mismanagement of the japanese economy . Abe and Omi will be out of a job so their comments are becoming increasingly irrelevant .

madrid mm 09:11 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
"I think that so much money is coming in that hedge funds are getting wealthy from the management fees," he says.Click here

Como Perrie 09:10 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Overall do think tomorrow will be an interesting day.

PAR 09:08 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
German ZEW current conditions hit record high .

Como Perrie 09:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
The Neterlands Purk 08:43 GMT May 22, 2007

actually am doing pretty fine recently but with a prudence fashion if that is was what you argued. if you read It again you'll see my point was different, but not a problem to me either ways the market moves at current.

Melbourne Qindex 09:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 0.8780 // 0.8868* - 0.8956 - 0.8985 - 0.9044 - 0.9103*

The Neterlands Purk 08:43 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 06:52 GMT May 22, 2007

I call them signs of direction. Bad signs are only words people use when they lose..

PAR 08:35 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Looking for much better than expected German ZEW, hearing could be as high as 27 . Especially booming German stock and real estate market seems to be helping .

Syd 08:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
PARIS (AP)--The threat of a terror attack remains "real" for France, the new French interior minister said Tuesday, adding that the fight against terrorism will be among her top priorities.
Michele Alliot-Marie said she would maintain France's alert level at red, the second-highest in the color-coded system. "There is a reality. The threat is real for France, as for all Western countries," she said on France-Inter radio. "We are being very careful." Alliot-Marie, formerly the defense minister, was named interior minister in the new government formed Friday following the May 6 election of President Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy served as interior minister before resigning to campaign for the presidency. She said the alert level would remain at red and "it is going to be that way for some time." "The fight against terrorism is one of my priorities ... It is becoming a major concern."

London NYAM 08:22 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Euro looks like its completing a complex corrective pattern. On the sub-hourlies it looks like one more push is on the cards before a reversal as long as 1.3410 can hold for the next few days. Implications for some other crosses may be a reversal of USDGBP towards 1.9860 (following MPC minutes?) and USDJPY towards 119.50 (after Thursdays data or perhaps if Equities sag?).

Napoli DC 08:20 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
small short at 121.50, tight stop

Auckland peat 08:00 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Napoli pf 07:24 GMT May 22, 2007

I do believe it is , or if not then someone else is promoting his service ;+)

London NYAM 07:57 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a pretty slow data day today and not tremendous news tomorrow either. Equity markets will probably run the show, with the SAP 500 in the spotlight. T-bill 1 day reversal yesterday might see some action too. Lets see how much more ammo the Bulls have.

madrid mm 07:50 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Store sales in April were surprisingly weak. The strength of store sales so far in May is up in the air, but another bad month would be a very big story. Look for the latest from ICSC-UBS and Redbook.

Lynden venera 07:48 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
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Como Perrie 07:45 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold takes Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, other central bankers, and their staffs, seriously. The central banks believe that their guide, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, is giving them the right signals. They would disdain the simplistic trend-is-your-friend thinking of half-educated traders, but there is a lot in common between believing in trend charts and believing in the DGSE model. Both serve you well most of the time, but are not good at calling turns in markets or economies.

The problem that traders have with depending on the trend to be their friend is that by the time you can see that your friend has abandoned you, you've burned through your original and variation margin. In other words, you've already lost a lot of money.

The problem that central bank economists have is that at the turning points in the economy, when correct judgment on their part is most important, the data their models depend on is at its most unreliable. As one economist friend of mine says, "There is a huge statistical fog around the US economy. Every number surprises on the upside and on the downside."

This is because behaviour patterns are changing. Builders know the bell has rung on their industry, and are already preparing themselves for long hard times. Invisible illegal immigrants who were working off the books and buying goods are now drifting back across the borders to their home countries. You can't extrapolate from past behaviour, which is what charts and models do, because that behaviour is changing.

....and Mr Bernanke's other academic speciality is depression avoidance if anyone noticed.

Napoli pf 07:24 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Wellington, N.Z. 07:17 GMT May 22, 2007

are you THE Max McKegg???

Gen dk 07:20 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wellington, N.Z. 07:17 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Today’s FX Trading Forecasts

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading Forecasts
go to "TRL" under Forex Services (above).

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Como Perrie 07:04 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Late in the session, an interview with Bank of Japan policy board member Atsushi Mizuno saw him suggest that the central banks could discuss a possible rate hike at their July meet. However, he stresses that no timetable was in place for policy moves.

Como Perrie 06:52 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:48 GMT May 22, 2007
There are no bad signs in Forex, keep that in mind.


Are you sure? Watch out next days, today included, with a degree of low profile and humble observation of the US-China talks outcome. Do not call the unknown is a lesson we have seen so many times here and elsewhere, that thought you learned.

The Netherlands Purk 06:48 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
There are no bad signs in Forex, keep that in mind.

Loonie: no signs of patternchange. No real big bounces yet so expect 10780, simple. Only 10945 can spoil that, but NN has to come up with real money.

Bugger: ranging but no good entrypoints for me, i hate longs in that one.

e/u: nice 20 pips from the lows.... 13465 is still interesting. Next is 13402.

Swissy: soon to be 123+

athens kos44 06:38 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:19 GMT May 21, 2007
Dear sir,Truly my purpose was not in any case the advertize. how ever sorry for this inconvenience.
gd to all

Como Perrie 06:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hedging Stupid?


http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN123005.html

SYDNEY, Australia -- A failure to find the next mother lode was helping prop up gold bullion prices, the head of South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-largest gold miner, said on Monday.

"There is a lack of exploration expenditure and a lack of discovery of any significant size," the company's chief executive, Ian Cockerill told a conference in the Australian city of Perth.

"The world is consuming 85 million ounces of gold a year but the industry is by no means finding and replacing that amount," he said.

Cockerill said the gold sector was firmly entrenched in a bull market and predicted there was still some way to go.

"Gold has in the past decade become the barometer of the geo-political state of the globe," he said.

"With the increasing hostilities over the last 10 years, we have seen sentiment come under gold from the prices of around US$200 an ounce in about November 2000 to the current range of US$600-700 an ounce," Cockerill said.

Spot gold sold for a record $850 in 1980 and traded as high as $730 an ounce in May 2006. The price has since recoiled though it remains well above long term averages. At 0353 GMT, an ounce of gold cost $662.25.

Cockerill said the "stupidity" of miners hedging future production had fallen by the wayside in favour of direct exposure to spot market prices.

"Most analysts now recognise hedging was a fault -- it is like eating your young -- we have come to recognise the craziness of selling something at a price delivery point in the future which is at a price that guarantees that you cannot replace it.

Gold Fields, which earlier this month posted third quarter gold production of 989,000 ounces, has long been critical of hedging gold.

Hedging has divided the world's mining companies, with rivals such as Newmont Mining Corp. and Rio Tinto Ltd./Plc. also refusing to hedge.

Start-up mining companies are sometimes forced by lenders to hedge at least part of their projected gold yield to cover loans.

madrid mm 06:31 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
in GMT -
10:00 EUR ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet Speaks In Seville 13:15 USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Meets With Chinese Officials In Washington

madrid mm 06:25 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Chicago Fed Pres Michael Moskow on US PBS TV last night says economy has been weaker than Fed expected at this time, but sees economy improving in 07, inflation working lower.

Core inflation is running high would like to see it moving toward center of 1-2% zone. Says not sure when housing market will stabilise but spillover from housing to broader economy manageable so far. Consumers haven't scaled back spending due to house price falls in some areas.

BoJ Minutes for the April 9-10 meeting: Many say there is need to watch asset price moves. Strong land prices seen in some areas. Need to watch impact of April services prices revision on CPI. MoF representative says there is need to cautiously watch if price pressure rises, while Cabinet Office Rep says Japan is not out of deflation and need to watch downside risks.

PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-rate at fresh all time lows of 7.6551 from yest close of 7.6673, ahead of US-China "dialogue" despite stronger USD.

Bank of Canada Gov David Dodge says most of the CAD rise to 30-year highs is based on strong fundamentals, ad policy markets are watching its impact on inflation.

BoC Dodge says CPI has been stronger than expected and BoC is watching it closely. Sees US 2007 GDP gorwth a little over 2%. Some slowing in US economy is not unhealthy for Canada.

US President George Bush, in Reuters interview, says he sees lots of tension between the West and Russia. He wants an American to succeed outgoing World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz.

MoF Koji Omi says US citizen should be next World Bank President.

Australia new motor vehicle sales for April -1.1%m/m - s-adj.

Relatively quiet markets as players digest USD recovery yesterday, despite the stronger CNY, and try to justify reason for firmer USD.Focus again on CNY today, ahead of US-China "dialogue" between US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi.

As another pre "dialogue" gesture, PBoC continues set USD/CNY lower, putting the mid rate at fresh all time lows 7.6551, from yesterday's 7.6673 closing, despite a generally stronger USD.

Little reaction to the major currencies, as USD/JPY continues to edge up, eyeing 3-m highs of 121.63 seen on Mon, with BoJ Minutes also not having any impact. Though still within a tight 20-pips range of 121.40 to 121.58.

Speculation of options interest at 121.75/ 122.00 handle, with interest still to buy on dips, while still talks of Japanese exporters selling on rallies.

Talks in Tokyo of >$2-3bln worth of fresh Japanese investment trust, toushin into the month end, thus need to buy Cross/JPY on fixing for the next few days, could see JPY selling.

EUR/USD holding above 5-week lows 1.3436, with talks of Russian/ East European bids, interest stil to buy on dips, while GBP higher as well, with talks of 2-way East Europeans/ East Asian interest. Stoploss now above 1.3480 level.

EUR/JPY traded tight range of 163.39-63, with interest still to buy on dips, after earlier bouts of selling from Japanese brokerages. key 164.00 options triggers.

CAD remains firm, as BoC Dodge says most of gains due to fundamentals. NZD holding, despite bouts of European/ NZD/JPY sales from Japanese brokerages, bids holding at 0.7260-70.

Nikkei +97.23pts or 0.55% at 17,654.10. JGBs edging a touch firmer, with 10-year yield -0.015% at 1.630%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.40/121.58, EUR/USD 1.3454/1.3470, GBP/USD 1.9702/1.9720, USD/CHF 1.2298/1.2210, AUD/USD 0.8199/0.8230, NZD/USD 0.7275/0.7307.

madrid mm 06:17 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
hello FX jedi,

""Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. THAT'S relativity."" - Albert Einstein

Q -if Oil goes up and if usd/yen goes up , doesn't inflation go up as well , or is it Relative Inflation ? 8-)
have a nice day !

Bangladesh Wenel 06:16 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi guys,
taken long position on eur/usd at 1,3460. T/p 1,3600 s/l 1,3390.Removed my previous limit order at 1,3425. GL & GT

HK REVDAX 06:05 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Today Special//Sell $/Jy 121.46 with stp at 121.61

Como Perrie 06:00 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Distorted Heads Funs

Qantas Airways Ltd chairwoman Margaret Jackson has warned that hedge funds holding large stakes in the flag carrier pose a massive risk to the stock price, the Australian newspaper reported.

In her first public appearance since Airline Partners Australia's 11 bln aud bid for the airline collapsed earlier this month, Jackson was quoted as saying that she had no regrets about the takeover process because it had led to a re-rating for Qantas' share price.

But The Australian said Jackson was surprised the shares had not fallen significantly below the 5.45 aud offered by APA after the bid failed.

'I think the surprising thing is that the large hedge funds are still on our register and the really pleasing thing is the share price has held up, and that's great for shareholders,' she said.

'It's hard to imagine they're going to stay there, that's not what hedge funds do, so there will be potentially some volatility as that is sorted out.'

Qantas' shares were at 5.27 aud yesterday -- just 3 pct short of the 5.41 aud peak they hit during the bid and well above the 3.50 aud level at which they were sitting before APA made its first approach in August last year.

The bid collapsed when US hedge fund Heyman Associates failed to accept the offer by the deadline and key institutional investors rejected APA's approach.

Jackson has announced she will retire in November, after 15 years as a director, the past seven as

chairwoman.

Como Perrie 05:54 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES
Pondering the futility of the Bank of Japan's inflation comfort zone

By NORIKO HAMA - Japan Times

Members of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board are said to be at odds about where the rate of inflation ought to be over the medium to longer term.

In a scheduled meeting in late April, the nine member board reviewed what the BOJ calls its "understanding of medium- to long-term price stability." This is BOJ jargon for a numerical range for consumer price inflation that it deems compatible with the notion of price stability. This range has now been set at a year-on-year 0 to 2 percent, according to statements from BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui in a press conference earlier this month.

Yet according to records of that meeting, the policy board members are by no means united on where this inflation comfort zone ought to lie.

Some favored a 1 to 2 percent range, while others insisted on a range that would dip into negative inflation territory at its lower end.

One member is on record for calling for a range between minus 0.5 percent and 0.5 percent.

Price stability becomes a very elusive concept when its custodians differ to this extent on what is considered acceptable. The press seems to have enjoyed itself while needling Gov. Fukui on this point.

The other point that had the press running after the governor was the question of what this zone of price stability was actually supposed to mean in practical terms. Is this comfort zone, wherever it is supposed to be, a target for monetary policy or is it not?

In short, is the BOJ effectively on the way to adopting an inflation-targeting policy or isn't it? This is the question on everyone's minds.

Gov. Fukui insists that this is not the case. What he seems to be saying is that the comfort zone is a collective state of mind on the part of monetary policymakers regarding price stability. Actual price developments are checked against that state of mind to see if they are acceptable or not. It is a very surreal day when monetary policy enters the realm of the collective human consciousness.

All this is exquisitely fascinating. Yet in the final analysis, one is tempted to say, "Who cares?" For there is an important element that is quite conspicuous for its absence in this whole debate over price stability and the direction of monetary policy, and that element is the exchange rate.

I hasten to say that I am perfectly aware that exchange rates do not fall within the formal purview of the BOJ. As in many other countries, exchange rates are the province of the finance ministry.

Yet to the extent that central banks are supposed to be the guardians of the purchasing power of national currencies, it flies in the face of logic and of integrity as a policy institution to say the BOJ will not look at exchange rates as an important factor for consideration.

That, however, is actually Fukui's stated position. He is on record as saying quite explicitly that exchange rates do not enter into his job description.

Technically, he is right of course. Yet it gives one a sinking feeling to learn that the custodian of the yen has no time to consider the external aspect of the currency's value and purchasing power.

In this highly globalized world, price stability is increasingly and brutally at the mercy of the foreign-exchange market. For monetary policy makers to be arguing over simplistic numerical comfort zones of inflation under today's circumstances seems futile in the extreme. It is about time the great collective consciousness focused itself on the greater picture.

GENEVA DS 05:53 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man...

if you are around..? You mentionned yesterday INR as one of the coming currncies... It is now around 40.80 against USD... Do you have any specific technical target for next year or so? thanks.

GENEVA DS 05:34 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Very soon all bad news will be priced in .... in CABLE and AUD... I think the technical picture starts showing some interesting potential in these economically bad currencies...the liquidity in this world has to go somewhere... and probably it will not be JPY or CHF... trends are here to be kept for a long term... gl gt

Syd 05:00 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Surprise fall in mortgages raises fears of an imminent slowdown
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/mortgages/article1821368.ece

Syd 04:42 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian Labor Govt Would Wreck Economy -PM Howard
With a series of voter opinion polls showing the opposition Australian Labor Party well in front of the governing coalition, Prime Minister John Howard Tuesday told parliamentary colleagues the public must be warned about the negative consequences of a change of government.

"The government is doing so well that people think change is riskless, and we need to remind people of the consequences of a change to Labor," Howard told a meeting of Liberal-National Coalition legislators, a spokesman for the meeting said.

"When you change government, you change the economy. Labor will wreck the economy," he added.

After traveling throughout Australia last week, Howard said he found no apparent hostility to the coalition, with people generally feeling it has done a good job, especially with the economy.

But voter opinion polls now suggest the government "wouldn't just lose, but be annihilated," with Labor winning emphatically, he said.





Melbourne Qindex 04:03 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : It is not a good sign when the market fails to overcome the projected resistant point at 0.8934 which is a significant level in my system.

Syd 03:54 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian New Auto Sales -1.1% In April Vs March

Egypt Yahya 03:47 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold is bouncing back to 665-670.... but a downtrend in the medium term is on

Syd 03:27 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
China Can Stop A-Share Bubble If It Chooses - UBS Don't think China's powerless to stop the A-share bubble, warns UBS. It's true "traditional" macro policy tools like base money constraints or interest rate hikes have little impact on equity market; but unlike the U.S. or other developed markets, China regulators have no qualms about using direct administrative tools to affect asset markets once they reach consensus that something must be done, "and we believe that the recent A-share market gains have brought the authorities to that point. We already saw the full gamut brought to bear on the property sector, and we expect further use of administrative restrictions on the equity side as well."

Melbourne Qindex 03:23 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 03:15 GMT - AUD/CAD : the market will be stabilized between 0.8861 - 0.9008 for the time being.

Syd 03:22 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
China's central bank may be reluctant to take stronger measures to curb rising stock revaluations, despite failure of Friday's triple-play policy prescription to dent investor sentiment, says HSBC's Qu Hongbin; "it would be too easy for the government to crush the market... but it doesn't want to go back to that old style of government." Adds Friday's policy move sufficiently weak to suggest central bank simply wants to prompt market to correct itself. HSBC

USA BAY 03:15 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,

Could you kindly comment on aud/cad when time permits. tia

Melbourne Qindex 02:32 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at [0.8201] - 0.8238. The market is positive when it is able to trade above 0.8238. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8229] and the lower barrier is expected at 0.8165 // 0.8178.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8126 - 0.8143* - 0.8152 - 0.8165 // 0.8178* - 0.8195 - 0.8204 - 0.8212* - [0.8229] - 0.8247* - 0.8255 - 0.8264 - 0.8281* // 0.8294 - 0.8307 - 0.8315 - 0.8333 ...

Melbourne Qindex 02:04 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 120.51 - 121.83. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 120.67. The center of the daily cycle is located at [121.13] and the lower barrier is expected at 120.24 // 120.41.


Daily Cycle : ... 119.70 - 119.94* - 120.06 - 120.24 // 120.41* - 120.59 - 120.65 - 120.77 - 120.89* - 120.95 - [121.13] - 121.31 - 121.37* - 121.49 - 121.61 - 121.66 - 121.84* // 122.02 - 122.20 - 122.32* - 122.56 ...

Melbourne Qindex 02:02 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 01:55 GMT - The odds are high when the market is trading below 1.9773 (see details in my monthly cycle charts).

ldn jas 01:55 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT May 22, 2007
QIndex - do you think the lower ramges may be tested in gbp/usd on Tuesday? - Also thank you for posting your series.

Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is negative when it is trading below 1.9662. The center of the daily cycle projected series is located at [1.9773]. It is likely that the market will challenge the lower barrier at 1.9648 // 1.9673. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit at 1.9574.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9574 - 1.9607* - 1.9623 - 1.9648 // 1.9673* - 1.9698 - 1.9707 - 1.9723 - 1.9740* - 1.9748 - [1.9773] - 1.9798 - 1.9806* - 1.9823 - 1.9840 - 1.9848 - 1.9873* // 1.9898 - 1.9923 - 1.9939* - 1.9973 ...

FW CS 01:37 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20070521/ts_csm/aeuro
This was on the Yahoo! homepage basically a USD bearish story. Getting public - $ bears should be wary right next to that link was a curreny converter. Medium term $ bottom probably in now.

Melbourne Qindex 01:32 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle): The critical level of my weekly cycle charts is located at 1.0812* - [1.0856]. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0812. The short term targeting points are 1.0634 and 1.0723. The center of the daily cycle projected series is [1.0849]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.0779 // 1.0793.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0737 - 1.0755* - 1.0765 - 1.0779 // 1.0793* - 1.0807 - 1.0811 - 1.0821 - 1.0830* - 1.0835 - [1.0849] - 1.0863 - 1.0867* - 1.0877 - 1.0886 - 1.0891 - 1.0905* // 1.0919 - 1.0933 - 1.0942* - 1.0961 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:24 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 01:16 GMT - You are welcome.

Melbourne Qindex 01:23 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle chart, the frequency numbers of 1.2274 and 1.2379 are more or less the same. This would indicate that the market can easily move ahead towards 1.2379. A barrier is located at [1.2326] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The center of the daily cycle is located at [1.2271]. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the daily cycle normal upper limit at 1.2355


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2187 - 1.2201* - 1.2208 - 1.2218 // 1.2229* - 1.2239 - 1.2243 - 1.2250 - 1.2257* - 1.2260 - [1.2271] - 1.2281 - 1.2285* - 1.2292 - 1.2299 - 1.2302 - 1.2313* // 1.2323 - 1.2334 - 1.2341* - 1.2355 ...

ad 01:18 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
0

nj jf 01:16 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
tks dr q

nyc me myself & i 01:16 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
i know, but what's your opinion about the BoJ mtg?

Melbourne Qindex 01:12 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in the weekly cycle charts the market was able to consolidate between 1.3444 - 1.3551. The market is under pressure when it is trading below [1.3498] which is the center of the weekly cycle. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.3475] and the lower barrier is located at 1.3431 // 1.3440. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit defined at 1.3405.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3405 - 1.3417* - 1.3423 - 1.3431 // 1.3440* - 1.3449 - 1.3452 - 1.3457 - 1.3463* - 1.3466 - [1.3475] - 1.3483 - 1.3486* - 1.3492 - 1.3498 - 1.3501 - 1.3510* // 1.3518 - 1.3527 - 1.3533* - 1.3544 ...

Halifax CB 01:10 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
nyc me myself & i 00:33 GMT May 22, 2007
i can't trade aud/cad on the platform i use

Just trade aud/usd and usd/cad, for pretty much the same effect (and probably less slippage).

Halifax CB 01:07 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Last line should be
quarter 116.2/126.7

Halifax CB 00:59 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:32 GMT May 21, 2007
It's very believable...I've been playing witht he KF to see what it's crystal ball prognostications will give (which isn't worth much, it's a bit like watching long-term weather forecasts) it's giving even odds for the the following maximum likelihood bounds:
1 month 118.5/122.6
2 months 117.2/124.7
quarter 116.2/124.7

etc....

RIC fxq 00:39 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 00:33 GMT

I do follow the issue very closely and have had concerns for sometime, as I do with the current trucking bill fiasco, et al.

Totally disgusting!

FW CS 00:33 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 22:53 GMT May 21, 2007
You are right impeachment is what should be done to the people and the organization behind this movement. But again the people in this country have fallen asleep.

nyc me myself & i 00:33 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
i can't trade aud/cad on the platform i use

FW CS 00:29 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 22:53 GMT May 21, 2007
Well guess what Bush a republican is already pushing it through and its being supported by the Council of the Americas ,the Security and Prosperity Partnership, and the Council on Foreign Relations whcih has a LOT of money and power.

Did you read the link? The NAFTA tribunal has already OVERULED the US Supreme court on several occasions so this movement has quite a bit of power and money behind it. If the people in this country don't do anything we will see a North American Union in the near future

USA BAY 00:04 GMT May 22, 2007 Reply   
Any opinion on aud/cad at 0.8750. tia

 




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