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Forex Forum Archive for 05/26/2007

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Melbourne Qindex 23:41 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:28 GMT : Something unusal about USD/CAD when one examine its crosses, like AUD/CAD and EUR/CAD. It seems to me that market makers are doing something funny.

Scarborough TG 18:33 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Hi, I've read all your contributions to this forum for many year, my recollection is at least 8 to 10 years of fine reading from all your contributions.
I have a question for the group of contributers, what effect would trade leavies by the Americans on goods produced by china have on the commodity currencies such as the CAD,AUD,NZD .

Mtl JP 15:28 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Qindex 14:29, more an observation Qindex. dlrcad been probably a victim of ressource prices and geo-politics, so if one likes the correlation more downside in cards while the mix persists.

Melbourne Qindex 14:29 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:50 GMT - I am not sure about your question.

Producers would like to maintain a high level of crude prices but not high enough for consumers to use other alternative energy.

Melbourne Qindex 14:21 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.9757 - 1.9890. A projected resistant point is located at 2.0024. The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at [1.9823] and the lower barrier is located at 1.9573 // 1.9623. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats further and penetrates through the projected supporting level at 1.9623 - 1.9638. The center of the daily cycle is located at [1.9849] and the normal lower limit is defined at 1.9675.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9675 - 1.9704* - 1.9718 - 1.9740 // 1.9762* - 1.9783 - 1.9791 - 1.9805 - 1.9820* - 1.9827 - [1.9849] - 1.9870 - 1.9878* - 1.9892 - 1.9907 - 1.9914 - 1.9936* // 1.9957 - 1.9979 - 1.9993* - 2.0022 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.9765* - [1.9823] - 1.9849

GENEVA DS 13:53 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Interesting analysis... When Greenspan last used ,IRRATIONAL EXUBERRANCE, was back in 1996 about the strongly rising NASDAQ Index... at that time Nasdaq was around 1000 points... after his very wise sentence Nasdaq went to 5000... in this never ending bubble... Now , Chinese Stocks are obviously as well in IRRATIONAL EXUBERRANCE stage... so get ready folks to see at least 20 000 on Chinese share index over next few years.... which means obviously... for us Forexers... JPY and CHF much lower and GBP, AUD, CAD and Kiwi much higher... AUDUSD back to 1.30 , where it has been 30 years ago... and USDJPY back to 200 where it was 20 years ago... EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED... hope we can take advantage of that... have a wonderful time... fantastic week ahead...

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Qindex 01:19 / Brent hit $71.42/bbl on Th. $80 looking realistic, especialy as consumers do not yet seem to mind so why shouldn't producers grab what market will pay?

Global-View Research 10:34 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
FX Briefing 25 May 2007 - US economy not yet out of the woods

Melbourne Qindex 10:00 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.3363 - 1.3447 and the mid-point reference of 1.3363 and 1.3447 is 1.3405. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.3354 - 1.3363. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.3249 // 1.3280. A projected supporting level is located at 1.3244 - 1.3249. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at 1.3460 and the upper barrier is located at 1.3497* // 1.3506. The normal daily cycle upper limit is defined at 1.3534.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3386 - 1.3398* - 1.3404 - 1.3413 // 1.3423* - 1.3432 - 1.3435 - 1.3441 - 1.3447* - 1.3451 - [1.3460] - 1.3469 - 1.3472* - 1.3478 - 1.3485 -1.3488 - 1.3497* // 1.3506 - 1.3515 - 1.3522* - 1.3534 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.3405) - 1.3460 - 1.3569*

Como Perrie 09:55 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Yuan Isn't the Cause of U.S. Trade Deficit, Wu Says (Update3)

By Yanping Li

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan isn't the cause of the U.S. trade deficit and a ``large'' appreciation would hurt China's economy, Vice Premier Wu Yi said, signaling the nation won't cave in to demands for faster gains.

``China will continue to reform its exchange rate on its own initiative, gradually,'' Wu said at a dinner in Washington after two days of talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that yielded no agreements on the currency and failed to quell calls in Congress for sanctions against China.

About 85 percent of China's trade surplus with the U.S. is generated by foreign companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. exporting products from China that are no longer made in the U.S., Wu said, citing textiles, shoes and furniture. Imposing protectionist measures to cut last year's record $232.5 billion U.S. deficit with China would harm both nations, she said.

``The U.S. government also doesn't want a trade war with China,'' Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. ``If that really happens, the losses for the Americans might not be lower than those for the Chinese.''

The yuan closed little changed at 7.6527 against the dollar in Shanghai from 7.6519 late yesterday, completing its second- biggest weekly gain since February. China has allowed the currency to rise 8.2 percent since abandoning a fixed link to the dollar in July 2005.

China's trade surplus almost doubled in the first quarter, spurring economic growth of 11.1 percent, the fastest among major economies. The nation's foreign-exchange reserves grew at about $1 million a minute in the first three months to reach $1.2 trillion, the world's largest.

Stock Market

Wu, 68, and Paulson concluded two days of talks on May 23 aimed at easing tensions between the two nations. Paulson and Wu agreed to increase the number of flights between China and the U.S., to lift a freeze on foreign firms entering China's securities industry and to allow overseas banks to offer yuan- denominated credit and debit cards.

China will also increase the quota allotted to approved international investors for the purchase of stocks usually reserved for domestic buyers.

Paulson wasn't able to persuade Wu to allow foreign banks to own more than 25 percent of a domestic lender.

``She's not conceding on any of our points,'' said Alan Tonelson, research fellow of the U.S. Business and Industry Council, which represents about 1,500 smaller manufacturers in Washington. ``This is insulting.''

Democratic Representative Sander Levin of Michigan, who chairs the trade panel of the House Ways and Means Committee, said May 23 the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

Yuan Trading

``Large scale yuan appreciation will have a negative impact on China's economy,'' Wu said, adding that trade protection would hurt relations between the U.S. and China. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke also attended the dinner.

China last week increased the amount its currency can appreciate by widening the band within which it can fluctuate each day against the dollar to 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent.

``As the market evolves, the yuan's trading range will continue to expand,'' Wu said. China's currency has yet to move by as much as 0.3 percent in a single day.

Textile Jobs

China is concerned faster appreciation of the yuan would hurt company profit and jobs. The textile industry, which accounted for 72 percent of China's trade surplus last year, loses 8.2 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) for every percentage point of currency appreciation, the China National Textile and Apparel Council estimates.

Wu met with U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday. Bush later told reporters the U.S.-China relationship was ``complex'' and that the two nations must work together to ease economic tensions.

The U.S. is ``watching very carefully'' China's steps on its currency, Bush said, and is prodding China's government to open its capital markets to international financial institutions.

Wu cited a March study by a Boston scholar that found that China's trade surplus with the U.S. reflects the overall surplus East Asia has with world's largest economy. She didn't name the scholar.

``This scholar's opinion is very well founded,'' Wu said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yanping Li in Washington at [email protected]

Melbourne Qindex 08:05 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that it has a tendency to trade between 1.0698 - 1.0852 and the mid-point reference of 1.0698 and 1.0852 is 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, 1.07998* - [1.0813] - 1.0824. A barrier is located at 1.0755. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. On the other hand the market is able to move higher if it can trade above 1.0824. The short term target is 1.0852. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.0824] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0883 // 1.0898. Downside targeting points are 1.0724 and 1.0755.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0705 - 1.0724* - 1.0734 - 1.0749 // 1.0764* - 1.0779 - 1.0784 - 1.0794 - 1.0804* - 1.0809 - [1.0824] - 1.0839 - 1.0843* - 1.0853 - 1.0863* - 1.0868 - 1.0883* // 1.0898 - 1.0913 - 1.0923* - 1.0943 ...

Directional Indicator : 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824

Melbourne Qindex 07:49 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that it has a tendency to trade between 1.0698 - 1.0852 and the mid-point reference of 1.0698 and 1.0852 is 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, 1.07998* - [1.0813] - 1.0824. A barrier is located at 1.0755. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. On the other hand the market is able to move higher if it can tradThe center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.0824] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0883 // 1.0898. Downside targeting points are 1.0724 and 1.0755.e above 1.0824. The short term target is 1.0852.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0705 - 1.0724* - 1.0734 - 1.0749 // 1.0764* - 1.0779 - 1.0784 - 1.0794 - 1.0804* - 1.0809 - [1.0824] - 1.0839 - 1.0843* - 1.0853 - 1.0863* - 1.0868 - 1.0883* // 1.0898 - 1.0913 - 1.0923* - 1.0943 ...


Directional Indicator : 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824

kk,sabah jenny kho 05:02 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
hi... nice to meet u alll. im newbie here,,,,but i know forex a year ago...but don have skilll to trade.../

Melbourne Qindex 01:19 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Keep an eye on the Crude Oil.


Crude Oil (CL) (July) : The market is trying to overcome the projected resistant level at [65.29] - [65.48]. The upside targeting points are 66.05 and 67.32. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below 64.61 and it will challenge the critical level of the monthly cycle charts at 62.57 - 63.95. The downside targeting points are 63.17 and 64.30.


Daily Cycle : ... 61.74 - 62.21* - 62.45 - 62.81 // 63.17* - 63.53 - 63.65 - 63.89 - 64.13* - 64.25 - [64.61] - 64.97 - 65.09* - 65.33 - 65.57 - 65.69 - 66.05* // 66.40 - 66.76 - 67.00* - 67.48 ...

hk ab 00:23 GMT May 26, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, I went to bed early, miss all your posts.

What level are you eyeing in gold to buy?

 




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