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Forex Forum Archive for 05/27/2007

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Syd 23:57 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
U.K. house price growth slowed slightly in May as rising interest rates began to weigh on the market, property valuation company Hometrack said Monday.

The average U.K. house price rose 0.6% on the month in May after increasing 0.7% in April, Hometrack said. That brought the annual rise in prices to 6.7%, just below April's four-year high of 6.8%.

"The steady ratcheting up of interest rates was bound to take its toll eventually," said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.

Wellington, N.Z. 23:35 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
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BULGARIA KK 23:29 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Good morning.
Is there Japan or Australia online.

Halifax CB 23:04 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 22:18 GMT May 27, 2007
Re the basket, I figure it's about time. A good measure would simply be lowest-cost subsistance based, because what matters is what the basic level of subsitance is, the rest is fluff that peoiple can adjust to meet their wallet. Americans have a tendency to overspend on ridiculous items - from 4+ bedroom houses for single people to ubiquitous SUV's and kilocalorie fast-food restaurants, and AFAICS it shouldn't be treated as a basic part of the economy. The Fed's lack of consistency, however, is not impressive...

RIC fxq 23:01 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 22:51 GMT

US AND UK are on holidays today.

Tonbridge AL 22:58 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
ab.....from below...
GVI john 20:19 GMT May 27, 2007
Mon, May 28, 2007
DE, CH, UK, US- Holiday

hk ab 22:51 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Is today US holiday?

Como Perrie 22:18 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
By shifting its attention away from a constant basket of goods to one that allows for the substitution toward cheaper items, officials at the Fed effectively redefined inflation.

"Now you're looking at a cost of living for a declining standard of living," said Williams. "But people want to be able to maintain a standard of living."

Even if one does take the official statistics at face value, global forces like rising commodity and energy prices are likely to keep a floor under prices, say analysts.

That, in turn, might make the concept of core inflation as a guide to monetary policy look increasingly irrelevant. It would also complicate the Fed's task of managing consumer expectations about inflation, considered key in the fight against accelerating price gains.

Como Perrie 22:11 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Am reading from the Reuters web some interesting points, we have been discussing lately. Look for the following.

Banks wary of subprime mortgage market "head fake"


Gaming the stats: Where is U.S. inflation hiding?

GVI john 21:10 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
DE= Deutschland is the most common abbreviation

NY Ed 21:04 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi All, anyone have any feelings on eur/usd long even in spite of closed US

LKWD JJ 20:51 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
is it not GE ?

GVI john 20:42 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Germany

LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
DE?

GVI john 20:26 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
JJ- I just updated it

LKWD JJ 20:22 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
john was that on the gvi calendar?

GVI john 20:19 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Mon, May 28, 2007
DE, CH, UK, US- Holiday
23:50 JA- Apr CSPI

LKWD JJ 20:06 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
is london closed on monday like the us? hearing "bank holiday" rumors. plz confirm someone. tia(thanks in advance).

deria,dubai ismail 19:40 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
pls i want know what i can srry invest on in a country like united arab emirates,its a country where they totally depend on foreigh foods and water being a desert region.

pls tell me what to invest on.i would really really appreciate it ok

you can reply to my e mail [email protected]

deria,dubai ismail 19:39 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
pls i want know what i can invent on in a country like united arab emirates,its a country where they totally depend on foreigh foods and water being a desert region.

pls tell me what to invest on.i would really really appreciate it ok

you can reply to my e mail [email protected]

NY RP 18:49 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 14:17 GMT May 27, 2007
Good stuff. Appreciate your insights. Always glad to hear them. Since talking about the US Dollar, I feel it is almost a certain that the index takes out .8000 on the downside. It is all how it does does it. Abruptly or slow and steady will determine the dpeths below. I believe we are in the midst of dollar strenght as we speak. Icertainly hope the buck can do better then this, if not we are all in trouble. GL

FW CS 14:17 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 11:41 GMT May 27, 2007
Eveything you say is true but the $ camp is very small now and $ is vulnerable to short covering. A strong $ also doesn't necessarily mean strong economy too. I for one am of the opinion that we are seeing a multi month bottom forming on the USD but it may take about another 3-6 months before that becomes apparent

Melbourne Qindex 12:26 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is going to challenge 113.03 - 113.15.

Melbourne Qindex 12:17 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... Heading towards 1.0683. Projected barriers are located at 1.0710 - 1.0740 and 1.0773.

Melbourne Qindex 12:10 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is heading towards 1.1425.

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is heading towards 2.1150. A barrier is expected at 2.1308.

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is testing the lower barrier at 0.8780 // 0.8868. The next barrier is expected at 0.8692.

NY RP 11:41 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:20 GMT May 27, 2007
Happy Weekend to you.
One doesnt need a paper nor a TV commentor to tell us what is reality. The way it is, not my opinion, it simple. Real Estate went up (huge) and dragged the economy with it. So if Real Estate goes down, guess what goes with it? The only problem with the equation is before RE went up the avergae person had equity in their home. Now times are different.
The way I see it is if it I caught it in the ocean and it looks like fish and smells like fish, it is most likely fish. The only challenge arises when people try to convince you its chocolate. Have a nice day. GL

Como Perrie 11:20 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
From Mouldin

Housing Is Weaker than the Data Suggests

But if the subprime debacle poses no systemic risk (i.e., it will not bring about a collapse or serious contraction of the economic system and credit markets), it does pose a serious economic risk to the growth of the US economy.

Housing accounts for about 23% of the US economy, when taking into account all housing-related purchases of furniture, appliances, and items for new homes, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. So if the housing market is in recession, which it is, it is no small potatoes. Let's look at a few recent points of data.

The NAR (National Association of Realtors) says that home sales are off 9%. Real estate analyst John Burns (http://www.realestateconsulting.com/) says that "the housing market has softened much more than is being reported" by the Fed and the NAR. Let's look at some of his research. He gets it from purchasing the actual closing data for 55% of the country. Using this data, home sales are down 22% for the year through April 2007. The largest nationwide real estate brokerage firm reports sales down 18%.

Mortgage applications for home purchase have fallen 18%, even though many buyers now have to fill out several applications in order to get a mortgage. Taking the states with the worst housing sales/foreclosures crises, Burns found Florida home sales down 34%, not 28% as NAR reported; Arizona sales down 38%, not 28%; and California's down 37%, not 24% as NAR reports. This strong underreporting of the collapse by NAR, the firm says, only dates from the middle of 2006; it doesn't claim any intentional misrepresentation by NAR.

As for new-home sales, JBREC reports the Census Bureau is continuing not to subtract cancellations from reported sales, giving sales figures which are much rosier than the grim reality, and these are reported publicly by the Federal Reserve. And cancellations are a big factor, running 40-50% in some markets.

The market was happy when new home sales rose by 16% yesterday. But looking at the data, one should not be quite so impressed. First, prices fell by 11%, the largest monthly drop on record. Homebuilders, taking a page from auto dealers, are "marking them down in order to move them out." Gabriel Stein at Lombard Street Research in London (www.lombardstreetresearch.com - an increasingly useful source of information to me) comes up with some very useful points on home prices:

"Yesterday, Commerce Department data showed that sales of new homes jumped in the US, although prices fell. Today's data from the National Association of Realtors shows that sales of existing homes fell, although prices rose. Is there a relationship? Almost certainly, yes. The significant development there was that the median price of a new home fell below that of an existing home. Monthly price data for both new and existing homes goes back to 1975. In that period, there is only one brief period - from September 1981 to February 1982 (and only in three of those six months) - when prices of new homes were lower than those of existing homes." As she notes, that period also had a very high stock of unsold homes.

Melbourne Qindex 09:52 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Monthly Cycle ) : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series a resistant level has been established at 1.4621 - 1.4647. The market is going to head for the barrier at 1.4443 - 1.4470. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.4068 - 1.4102.

Melbourne Qindex 08:55 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle lower barrier is positioning at 120.80 // 121.45. A projected resistant point is located at 123.19. Other barriers are located at 122.10, 122.32 and 122.76. The center of the daily cycle is found at [122.00] and the normal lower limit is defined at 120.82.


Daily Cycle : ... 120.82 - 121.01* - 121.11 - 121.26 // 121.41* - 121.55 - 121.60 - 121.70 - 121.80* - 121.85 - [122.00] - 122.14 - 122.19* - 122.29 - 122.39 - 122.44 - 122.59* // 122.73 - 122.88 - 122.98* - 123.18 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 119.90* - 122.00 - (124.06)

Melbourne Qindex 07:32 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.8143 - 0.8276. A projected supporting point is located at 0.8076. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [0.8110] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8210 // 0.8235. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8200] and the lower barrier is located at 0.8134 // 0.8147. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8156 which is the normal 3-day cycle reference lower limit.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8095 - 0.8113* - 0.8121 - 0.8134 // 0.8147* - 0.8160 - 0.8165 - 0.8174 - 0.8182* - 0.8187 - [0.8200] - 0.8217 - 0.8217* - 0.8226 - 0.8234 - 0.8239 - 0.8252* // 0.8265 - 0.8278 - 0.8287* - 0.8304 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8110) - 0.8200 - 0.8264*

Melbourne Qindex 07:30 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.8143 - 0.8276. A projected supporting point is located at 0.8076. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [0.8110] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8210 // 0.8235. The center of the daily cycle is found at [1.8200]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8156 which is the normal 3-day cycle reference lower limit. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8200] and the lower barrier is located at 0.8134 // 0.8147.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8095 - 0.8113* - 0.8121 - 0.8134 // 0.8147* - 0.8160 - 0.8165 - 0.8174 - 0.8182* - 0.8187 - [0.8200] - 0.8217 - 0.8217* - 0.8226 - 0.8234 - 0.8239 - 0.8252* // 0.8265 - 0.8278 - 0.8287* - 0.8304 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8110) - 0.8200 - 0.8264*

Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT May 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2242 - 1.2329. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above [1.2372] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2416. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.2290] and the upper barrier is located at 1.2350 // 1.2365.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2170 - 1.2190* - 1.2200 - 1.2215 // 1.2230* - 1.2245 - 1.2250 - 1.2260 - 1.2270* - 1.2275 - [1.2290] - 1.2305 - 1.2310* - 1.2320 - 1.2330 - 1.2335 -1.2350* // 1.2365 - 1.2380 - 1.2390* - 1.2410 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.2288* - 1.2290 - (1.2372)

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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