Forex Forum Archive for 05/29/2007

hk ab 23:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
with crude sharp dive, the cad still is not responding at all....

Syd 22:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Buy-to-let owners face ÂŁ4.1bn tax clampdown
Landlords will face a capital gains tax of more than ÂŁ4.1 billion, or an average bill of ÂŁ48,600 based on 2006 house prices, according to figures from a specialist buy-to-let broker Landlord Mortgages. New tax-collecting measures include ÂŁ60 daily penalties for people who fail to file self-assessment returns on time, abolishing caps on fines and giving inspectors bonuses for securing unpaid bills.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=458342&in_page_id=1770

Melbourne Qindex 22:17 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:13 GMT - You are welcome.

Syd 22:06 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bringing down the house
More than 20,000 small investors have lost almost a billion dollars in collapsed property schemes. Helen Westerman and Ben Schneiders report on the plague sweeping Australia.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/bringing-down-the-house/2007/05/29/1180205246997.html

GVI john 22:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI

GVI john 22:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

London NYAM 21:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Incidentally, EUR/JPY must correct all the way to 164.10 to avoid significant additional losses. And support for analysis is found for EUR/GBP continued short term correction to .6700 and exposing the realtive strength of the GBP found in the crosses. That relative strength should reverse afterwards propelling USDEUR to 1.42/5

London NYAM 21:36 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum//I am away from my charts so i am going by memory...The L/T view is that both EUR?JPY and GBP/Bodrum//I am away from my charts so i am going by memory...The L/T view is that both EUR?JPY and GBP/JPY are in a c wave that could extend to 166/7 and 244/5 respectively without calling into question the possibility of further impulsive moves carrying out beyond that. On GBP/USD, i have us in a wave 4 of an e wave over the past couple of decades. This view is made less likely on a break of 1.9675 and wrong on a break of 1.9140. On USDJPY, I have us ending a large corrective phase from the lows in 2004. This may venture all the way to 128.60/80. In the meantime a large correction is still feasible.
Now the shorterm is that USDJPY has probably completed or is near completing a wave 4 targeting minimum of 2.0180 to as much as 2.40 if it extends.
On USDJPY if i am expecting a deeper correction on the Yen crosses makes me s/t bearish USDJPY. However the longer we continue sideways on the crosses the more likely we will see USDJPY approach the 128 zone.
The recent sequence that you refer will only indicate more downside if we stay below 240.20 area. Still nothing will be known until we break the range.
Vague I know but if I didn’t understand your question then i may need to know your time stamps to help you.
Hope all is well GTGL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:21 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mid-short term view eur/usd pair: The bounce talked about on my previous comments has taken the pair to test key resistance but failed to break it. With that failure the bears have once again a chance at the key support (3405-15). This key support must be taken out soon or the bulls will take the momentum and try again at the key resistance (3520-30). The strategy is still sell on failed rallies (as the 3520-30 failed). One more thing to note and that is we are in the summer ranges once again. These are very difficult times to sustain or break key points so it is wise to keep tight stops IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:38 GMT May 25, 2007
Eur/usd pair mid/short term: This pair is well into the correction mode already. With key resistance around the 3490-3500 area and main resistance around the 3520-30 area for now the plan is to continue to sell any failed resistance point. Key support is now around the 3405-15 and 3365-75 area for now. With indicators in the O/S area look for a possible bounce if the 3405-15 support is not taken out soon. I am looking to see at least the 3365-75 area before any correction is over unless the key resistance is taken out IMHO. Peace and GT

LKWD JJ 21:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
getting a dmi crossover in cable daily charts. looks like retrace off 2.01 has ended with broken downtrend line. 10ma was support today with interest rates either higher or steady in uk short term , seems like only derailment can come from carry trade unwind.

Como Perrie 20:56 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   

Man with rare TB quarantined by feds

First federal quarantine since 1963
(New York-WABC, May 29, 2007) - The federal government has put a man with a rare and exceptionally dangerous form of tuberculosis under quarantine. It's the first such quarantine order in more than 40 years.

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=health&id=5349408

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:46 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, EURJPY is in the same spot it was exactly 24 hours ago.

Gen dk 20:42 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LKWD JJ 20:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
sorry about last post . looks like it was old news .

LKWD JJ 20:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
HEARD ON BLOOMBERG RADIO 4pm at 11:30am there was an anouncement from pboc with regards to taxes on stox and then the dow sold off. also the adr for china bank was down but later in the day it recovered and so did the mkt.seems all eyes glued to shanghai mkt but maybe more importantly all fingers hovering near sell buttons in case it goes wild.

Syd 20:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Recovering USD, deteriorating carry trade sentiment likely to limit topside in NZD/USD today but solid support has been evident on dips towards 0.7230-7240 region, says Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton; says it will take some fresh impetus to see NZD/USD make convincing downside break but investors should "keep an eye out" for how Chinese markets perform later in session after news China raised its stamp duty in effort to take heat out of over-inflated equity markets; announcement triggered aggressive selling of NZD/JPY overnight, says Hampton

Dallas GEP 19:53 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Closed some gbp shorts HERE from 1.9861, rest running with 1.9840 stop

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
on EURJPY - is this an opprtunity to go long as the China CB rise of the Stamp Duty tax has already made its impact and most possibly it will go like it did...

163.55 is Support 1 from Daily Pivots...

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:34 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mr. Jack Crooks has put today a great piece of G. Soros' book on Reflexivity and the typical boom-bust scenario in his Black Swan daily commentary...

Bodrum OEE 19:24 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

My view is that the recent 241.80 + could be the fifth one if not revisited. Would you share this opinion, could be another way to ask my question. I appreciate your time and effort. Thank you again.

Bodrum OEE 18:57 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

Is the most recent short one (i.e. one minute) complete (and not confirmed yet however) ? Thanks again. Good night everyone

Bodrum OEE 18:47 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

Apologies, up trend that was. Thank you

Bodrum OEE 18:45 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London


Hello NYAM, strictly when and if possible - could you kindly tell me how many waves do you have up on the current GBP/JPY short term trend this year (or if it did start end of last year) and when did it start or end ? Thank you.

The Netherlands Purk 18:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Well remember this: cable will touch 18888 this year...
wont post that again.

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
A multitude of levels to get through, but the ones apparent to me are 1.9841 and 1.9876...

St. Annaland Bob 18:34 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
it will not be one of the world's wonders to see cable going again to 19900 area during the next 24hrs

Lahore FM 18:29 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
nice attempt at stabilization of eurusd and gbpusd.if we can stick around here a few hours there may still be an exhaustive up.

HK Kevin 18:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 18:10 GMT, thank you for your views.
EUR and Cable is going to test 1.3360 and 1.9650 tomorrow. Put stop loss at b/e for my 142.21 short EUR/JPY position. Good night!

Bodrum OEE 18:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
It is possible that the perspective change is implemented on China and Japan versus bubble, as we type. This follows well known (and relatively respected) opinion leaders' statements. Paradoxically it may be the case that Japanese politicans due to lost credibility until quite recently (when they started to show signs of change) are not in a position to reverse it any longer. I wish everyone good luck. Regards

Geneva 18:10 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 18:02 GMT May 29, 2007

I will buy here for 1.11/1.12, I think today was a blow up move. This pair is the MOST over sold!

USA Zeus 18:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Meanwhile the USD pairs GBP/USD and EUR/USD still have that USD bias. That means I sold GBP and EUR- or did I buy USD? LOL

The Netherlands Purk 18:03 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Great moves. MIB did a marvellous job to help the bugger move hin und wieder....
Loonie will go on to 10550 but first correction time to 11045. Rangetrading.
And i dont care what the news is, as long as it is moving. Bugger gives great opps to trade the hin und wieder thing. So keep the range in mind. If by any chance is does not make it back to 16370 in a tick than we will face that 16318-16270 thing again.
I am so glad that ZEUS lost a few on the loonie. Guess that will confuse confusius and saves some people breath, and maybe they will think only about gevulde koeken.

HK Kevin 18:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 17:57 GMT, you must be a deep pocket guy. What's your entry level for short position.

Bodrum OEE 18:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   

TRY down .64 and RAND .90 against JPY.

GBP/Yen close to week and month resistance

JPY and CHF futures up .20 and .10 respectively

USA Zeus 18:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Yes clearly there is a difference in saying going long JPY vs going long JPY pairs. I meant what I said. I clicked the buy button on the pairs.

Gen dk 17:58 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Geneva 17:57 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 17:55 GMT May 29, 2007

1.00 is possible but I think it will not reach it is will bottom around 1.04/1.05. before we should correct to 1.1150/1.12.

Alaska Moon 17:55 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
These problems have allways been in evidence here for as long as I have been here.
It is probable the most clear tostate thepair, as USD/JPY and then say long or short this pair.
I knew exactly what Zues meant but some might not....
Moon

HK Kevin 17:55 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 17:46 GMT, EUR/JPY is in ending pattern, but who know where is the top. I have around 150 for Q3 this year. For USD/CAD, we will see 1.09 in the near future, but not your 1.12. If you take a look at the monthly chart. Parity seems unavoidable.

Mtl JP 17:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
***** WHOAH **** STOP THE G-V PRESS *****

** SOMEONE needs to arbiter what the CONVENTION is **

NYC 17:41 GMT May 29, 2007
Zeus. Stop being so defensive. Why does each question have to become a battle?

Buying yen crosses means buying yen. Long these crosses means you are short yen. Just semantics but can be confusing.

USA Zeus 17:40 GMT May 29, 2007
NYC 17:00 GMT May 29, 2007
"...Buying yen crosses implies buying yen..."

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NYC 17:00 GMT May 29, 2007
Zeus, do you mean selling yen on its crosses?. Buying yen crosses implies buying yen.

otherwise some players could get hurt for naught.

What do you say about it GVI ?

Geneva 17:46 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:38 GMT May 29, 2007

OK, any way, I think euro/jpy is in ending diagonal, one day it will break very hard down!.

I will keep my long dollar/cad target 1.12. then will see.

USA Zeus 17:45 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:41 GMT May 29, 2007
Not battling- you chirp silly quips as challenges. Try posting something original instead of constantly nagging others like an old hag.

USA Zeus 17:44 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:40 GMT May 29, 2007

Actually I see you as CB (More of a CBer!)
Was in reference to those who only post as "NYC" or "Geneva" same as "Detroit"

GT :-)

HK Kevin 17:42 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
If EUR/JPY close below today's opening level 163.72, a temp top will be formed. More downside to go this week.

Global-View GVI 17:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
From GVI

tor Pumpkin 17:30 GMT May 29, 2007
responsible for the USDJPY and EURJPY spill off:

13:15 29May2007 RTRS-CHINA SAYS TO RAISE STOCK TRADING STAMP DUTY, SEEN AS BID TO CLAMP DOWN ON OVERHEATED MARKET
13:17 29May2007 RTRS-CHINA SAYS STOCK STAMP DUTY TO BE RAISED TO 0.3 PCT STARTING WEDNESDAY FROM 0.1 PCT

Sydney Alimin 17:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
wakened up by alarm, usdjpy hit 121.50, i think a lot of markets will be dragged alongside if jpy strengthen from here

multiple rejection from watched ma on gbp hourly, tried short 1.9810 stop 1.9853...there is a potential of hitting 1.9450 if this gets underway

NYC 17:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus. Stop being so defensive. Why does each question have to become a battle?

Buying yen crosses means buying yen. Long these crosses means you are short yen. Just semantics but can be confusing.

Halifax CB 17:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:38 GMT May 29, 2007
Hey, I us Halifax in my handle, and it's a city. Well, maybe not, more of a village....But anyway I caught your post & thought it was rather a funny dig at folks who get things upside down....

USA Zeus 17:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:00 GMT May 29, 2007
"...Buying yen crosses implies buying yen..."

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lahore FM 17:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:37 GMT May 29, 2007
NYC,guess Zeus has made evidently clear what he meant.why split hair?

USA Zeus 17:38 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 17:33 GMT May 29, 2007


My point is that I NEVER said I was long JPY!!!
My post was referring to buying yen CROSSES- NOT YEN!!!!!
The only logical conclusion for you global masters of NYC and Geneva and anyone else who claims a city as their name here is that I was SHORTing JPY on any strength by BUYING YEN CROSSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NYC 17:37 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:06 GMT May 29, 2007 - if you buy these crosses you are short yen

HK Kevin 17:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USD Zeus, agree. Buying Yen crosses on each 200-300 pips correction still work before Q3 of this year.

Geneva 17:33 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:06 GMT May 29, 2007

No sense! You should be short eur/jpy to be long JPY

Lahore FM 17:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 17:18 GMT May 29, 2007
as Purk has noted swissy as indicator.it also indicates that gbpusd might have had the last hurrah.jpy also starting to roll depressing gbp and contis is what it will do.getting below 240.60 will diminish further upside on gbpusd.

Bodrum OEE 17:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
JPY futures up .16 from minus levels.

The Netherlands Purk 17:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Well in a way the bugger did us all a favour 2 times today
16370-163 and 163-16420ish and now back to 16370ish.
Indicator Swissy tells the crowd that indeed the usd camp is growing...

lkwd jj 17:18 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm was that last hurrah of gbp near 199 or will we go there again soon? broke channels and trend lines with this move over last few days.

Lahore FM 17:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
once again most jpy crosses looking to get sold.it is to be seen if the downside matures or not.eurjpy to join 2nd last,cadjpy last.

USA Zeus 17:06 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:00 GMT May 29, 2007

I refer to EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY (Pair) etc

If going long any of these, which would make you long yen?

NYC 17:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, do you mean selling yen on its crosses?. Buying yen crosses implies buying yen.

USA Zeus 16:58 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 25, 2007
Buying yen crosses on dips continues like that slot machine with flashing lights and loud sirens shooting endless coins out after hitting a jackpot.



Guess so!

Bodrum OEE 16:56 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm


I hope you like them

"To exchange principles for popularity might be a temptation. It's at the core of populism. We must offer something else.”

"A person's worth is quite independent of their usefulness to society.”

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-Prime Minister of Norway from 1997 to 2000, and from 2001 to 2005

-Longest serving non-Socialist Prime Minister since World War II.

-First Prime Minister who took sick leave due to mental illness.

hk ab 16:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
This French stance may push dlr/cad lower.

USA Zeus 16:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Test plots of switchgrass at Auburn University have produced up to 15 tons of dry biomass per acre, and five- year yields average 11.5 tons—enough to make 1,150 gallons of ethanol per acre each year.

USA Zeus 16:46 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:39 GMT May 29, 2007

Are those Brazilians morons for growing sugarcane?
My food crop msg is one of self sufficiency and surplus in a world where even many Chinese starve.

However- I suppose the US could use the extra farming capacity to grow switch grass as a source of high yield, low cost ethenol as the new enzymes are formulated.

Mtl JP 16:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 16:12, re food crops: no one - even the so-called communists - grows food crops induced by moronic gov't cheerliding in order to convert it to fuel for cars and nevermind associated rise in food costs. And the media would have us think the N.K. "dear leader" is a moron.

USA Zeus 16:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
And yes EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower on the drop and stop shop-

Ahh today's freebie trade!

Tomorrow is a different day. Trade accordingly.

Vienna GD 16:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 16:16 GMT May 29, 2007
"I want us to do the same thing with the euro as the Chinese do with the Yuan," Sarkozy said, referring to China's exchange-rate peg. "When they tell me the euro is at its right value, it's relative when you consider that the euro has gained 35% against the dollar."

Thanks Mr. Sarkozy ... seems you are the first among all those officials to use your brain cells.
Act accordingly and i'm going to buy peugot and citroen etc.
The saying goes he's pretty fast with his decisions - and that he's not somebody just talking hot air.
Interesting times ahead! Vive la france!

HK Kevin 16:24 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
HK RF, French President complained about the EUR level angainst dlr and JPY. Do you time there is not secret deal between US and China? If so, what is your views on USD/JPY. I intends to sell at 121.90.

USA Zeus 16:19 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:07 GMT May 29, 2007
Not a quantum entanglement between the sexes- LOL!

madrid mm 16:19 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Intereting times indeed we are witnessing .
-new hight euro / yen ,
-usd/cad at levels not seen in over 30 years,
-carry trade yen is the name of the game at the moment
-some indice making historical highs
etc

c u tom 8+-)

Syd 16:16 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
PARIS (AP)--French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday that the euro's rising value against the dollar is "artificial."

"I want us to do the same thing with the euro as the Chinese do with the Yuan," Sarkozy said, referring to China's exchange-rate peg. "When they tell me the euro is at its right value, it's relative when you consider that the euro has gained 35% against the dollar."

Sarkozy said he referred the problem to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

"We must have this debate," he said as he was visiting farmers in Saint-Pierre-Le-Viger, in the Seine-Maritime region. "I believe in the independence of the ECB and I believe that currency is a tool to serve growth and employment.

"How do you think it's possible that agriculture can survive if all the productivity gains that it makes are erased by the artificial appreciation of the euro against the dollar?"

USA Zeus 16:16 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:12 GMT May 29, 2007
Should read "The USD will be the ultimate commodity currency (Perhaps it already is.)"

HK Kevin 16:13 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, big thanks for your CAD storm analysis, thus preventing me from going against the trend.
EUR/JPY have reached my monthly reistance at 164.20. Sell small positions at 164.21 earlier, looking for 162.20 and 161.50. Will put my stop for 30 pips before going to bed.

Monaco Oil man 16:13 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
EURCHF looks quite tired , failure to regain 1.65 on daily close calls for a rapid move towards 1.6300 and if broken 1.6107.
Weekly must stay above 1.6487 to keep the bullish tone..

Will watch this one in the week ahead, could potentially be a mover.

USA Zeus 16:12 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The US will be the ultimate commodity currency (Perhaps it already is.)

The easy cheap supply of crude and other commodities are being spent at an alarming rate. Once gone the largest current oil reserve in the world- deep in the US borders will be mined along with gigantic coal reserves.

Also- No one grows food crops like the US. The information age will be sustained by the commodity anchor.

The strong USD policy will be shockingly powerful in the years to come as we mark the end of a weakening cycle.

Mtl JP 16:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:34/ the globe is significantly decoupling ? How: will there be less children (aka consumers)?

I think Sarkozy may have said more than he may have liked. Ref to FM 13:30.

Despite the plastic smiles that Paulsen and Yi put on for the benefit of cameras, one can not dismiss that the powers that may be (including CBs) are in game of chicken. In that sence, should there occur a mis-understanding about keeping "USD strong" or some other CB-stated platitude cause a correction in some stox index, we just might get those "various flow patterns on a more decent and impactful scale" as the CB putzes add more money and credit in an attempt to ward off a deflationary vortex. (their real nightmare, despite their dribbles about being "inflation" fighters, eh eh)

Yeah: volatility; bring it on !!

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 15:54 //
tnx really - I watch Daily EURCHF chart for break and daily close thru the channel bottom around 1.6480 - it is right there now - and 4 hour chart is confirming the slide ... we'll see.. GT!

Monaco Oil man 16:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Re commodity currencies this post summarizes what i believe is happening (and therefore will continue , as we already know max output and quantities left).

We should therefore see a big break to the upside for the CAD and Rubble , AUD , NZD,INR,ZAR in the years ahead.


gl gt
-------
Cannes Oil man 14:38 GMT February 1, 2007
Posted that last night on GVI..

Bio ethanol still needs POTASH!
Though frankly this second hand solution are long term investment, don't think China or India will abruptly announce a switch from oil to this kind of energy anytime soon.



Cannes Oil man 00:43 GMT February 1, 2007
Sydney ge11ja 22:01 GMT January 31, 2007

Semantics never been my forte , i'm afraid..
Personally I foresee top growth in the next 15 years , so much development ahead , that Stocks are probably going to double within the next 10 years(something i ve written back when dow was 8K..though my 13K target seems to close, 20K better now, but leaps don't last that long) , combined with hyper inflation due to commodity shortage..Again the broken record of People's Republic has already gobbled up 30% of the world's steel... 31% of the world's coal... 40% of the world's cement and so much more demand to feed its ravenous economy - for the next 15 to 20 years)..Combined with India , Africa..Fail to see how US$ can go UP with all above..As for oil , it will soon stop being a problem, potash and ethanol are a good replacement...Maybe i change my name to Potash man?Ah.

Bodrum OEE 16:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Swiss Franc Futures up .37

Sydney Alimin 15:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
this usdjpy should stabilise above 121.50 now and head for 122 in sessions to come, off for some sleep

GENEVA DS 15:54 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA

for EURCHF.... as I said before need a little more time here ... but EURJPY has broken up and could well go on to 170.00 before stabilising... but overall EUR up more ... c btw huge volatility coming our way... expect the unexpected... volatility in the direction of the actual trends... USD up against JPY and down against commodity currency... more or less stable against EUR....

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:51 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 15:46 //
tnx 4 ur comments - so you actually suggest that EURJPY and EURCHF will re-couple thier carry indicator status in near future? - this is not for trading but just as a concept..

Halifax CB 15:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:26 GMT May 29, 2007
I've got (yet another) theory that a non-smoking culture is an uncreative one, Canada being a case in point, the boredom factor being quite proportional to the inverse of the smoking rate.... If I was young & talented I'd head for China, and put up with the smoke.....

GENEVA DS 15:46 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Just bought now some AUDCHF at 10030.... as we see AUDUSD much higher and CHF sinking.... sl 9975 and 1 month target 10350.... gl gt

USA Zeus 15:44 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Today the commods are like a gelatinous blob.

Monaco Oil man 15:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Above 8277 will restart the buying frenzy...

USA Zeus 15:34 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Anticipate that the market will be different this summer than last. More likely to see various flow patterns on a more decent and impactful scale as the globe is significantly decoupling.

GENEVA DS 15:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
thanks a lot Monaco for quick answer... but I do agree , that below 8140 has to be cut... but we could be in for good fun with the current sentiment... thanks

Monaco Oil man 15:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 15:21 GMT May 29, 2007

May to November are definitely not known as trending months , though that doesn't mean it's not going to keep trending.
I m still looking for upside for now..
I have weekly bounce at 8159 (which was more or less touched and bounced today) to .8365..
-Just bought 8200 for 8365 (or more..if it starts moving up), testing the waters(means small entry to start with) , cut if 8130/40..Add above 8260..

I think major move will come AFTER the next 6 months , November to Feb as usual...

gl gt

USA Zeus 15:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the Marlboro man rides a Camel in China-

BEIJING (Reuters) - About 100,000 Chinese die annually from diseases associated with passive smoking while more than half a billion on the mainland suffer from the smoke exhaled from cigarettes, according to the Xinhua news agency.

The Ministry of Health reported that nearly one million people die from smoking-related diseases each year in China, the world's largest tobacco producing and consuming country with more than 350 million smokers, it said.

GENEVA DS 15:21 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
MONACO Oil man...

may I ask you where your long term (6month) target is for AUDUSD...? thanks

London NYAM 15:20 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
MELB fx 15:14 GMT May 29, 2007
London NYAM 14:30 GMT May 29, 2007//
How can it cost me if im out? I dont do opportunity costs if that what you mean.

Como Perrie 15:16 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
And I'll watch a star trek series better :))


seriusly It's not nice to call a market. you need a reason to trade, if you trade some system then first you shd know how the system is built, else Its just past records versus unknown future

am off ..have happy days ahead.

MELB fx 15:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:30 GMT May 29, 2007
That will cost you at least 120 pips from here...g/l

USA Zeus 15:13 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The USD camp will grow and grow...

tokyo ginko 15:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 14:21 GMT May 29, 2007
usd/cad look for major correction in the next 24 hours. GT all

+++

pls ignore the above post. GT all.

GENEVA DS 15:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia... your question on EURCHF... from our standpoint... the CHF will weaken a lot this summer but for the time being is in distribution mode between 16435 and 16535.... so we expect a sudden and very brutal upmove there in direction of 17000+...

USA Zeus 15:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
london jas 15:08 GMT May 29, 2007
Ahh I see. You were referring to the 1.9840 as a pivot. Yes in that case- gotcha. Glad to hear you are in for a freebie!
GT

GENEVA DS 15:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man....
congratulations to you once again... and today... you mention AUDUSD... probably you are again very lonely there, as we hear only bears all over the planet.... AUDUSD will be at 90.00 before the year is over....

london jas 15:08 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:03 GMT May 29, 2007
london jas 14:51 GMT May 29, 2007

Zeus you have answered me perfectly as I wanted to know which direction from that point you thought gbp/usd was taking. I am also short the pair and am happy you are the same........thanks

Maribor 15:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 14:48 GMT May 29, 2007

We all look at prices to make profitable trades, but there are moments when majority sell or majority buy. Market makers can react on this information and as they have opposite position, they may want prices to rise when they bought(customers sold, thinking it will fall). Regardless of there is no central price maker prices will go against customers for two reasons: marketmakers incremental push in their direction(to neutralize position) and customers taking loss as fear is stronger than greed.

Makassar Alimin 15:06 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
nice gbpusd intraday reversal, i am watching the 200 ma hourly for further clues

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:05 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
ok - I had the idea that EURJPY and EURCHF are somewhat carry indicators - right now the EURJPY looks on its way up - - while EURCHF is looking down..
- anyone have a comment on that?

USA Zeus 15:03 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
london jas 14:51 GMT May 29, 2007

Not sure what you mean as a trade under 1.9840 for best trade at the pivot. Am short GBP//USD and EUR/USD for a swing trade but I use fulcrums not traditional pivots.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:03 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie // I agree with you

Mumbai Deepak 15:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Oilman // Please reply to my email id, which Jay would have sent you. I want to send you the INR data!

I agree with AUD. The May Low for the pair was at 0.8170, which was breifly broken earlier today. Now an upside move above 0.8235 would indicate that the interim Lows have already been seen.

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:56 / ya "inflows", see my 13:11. Canada almost like Zimbabwe.

Monaco Oil man 14:56 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 14:51 GMT May 29, 2007

CAD is definitely still weak..

Inflows are restarting (as discussed previously) , still a long way before they reach "record" territory.

Melbourne Qindex 14:54 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market is going to work on the barrier 1.0657 // 1.0730* or 1.0713 // 1.0773*

Monaco Oil man 14:53 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
720 to go to parity...This CAD is accelerating...
Go on puppy.

AUD:

Failure to close BELOW 8170 daily points to 8470 target once again..
Will probably go long if it holds today or tom..

Como Perrie 14:53 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:43 GMT May 29, 2007

There's nothing pro about It.

Just a readable less deceptive forum with less lottery calls and magics - the latter are not part of the finance world, even if some sell their products as that.

Melbourne Qindex 14:52 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market is going to work on the barrier 1.0657 // 1.0730*

Maribor 14:51 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
I wonder if Buffet is or was buying CAD(selling USDCAD) as persistent fall is not compatible with what I think is fundamental to exchange rate movement.

london jas 14:51 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:40 GMT May 29, 2007
Zeus - are you looking under 19840 (gbp/usd) for best trades at the pivot ? ...thanks

Halifax CB 14:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 14:33 GMT May 29, 2007
I doubt it; check rates from a variety of sources & you'll see that in liqud markets they are close. Any attemptby a single platform to move rates significantly away from the market would get arbitraged pdq.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:24 //
hi - sorry to add this but Tokyo ginko calls were very good since I started paying attention to them..

however you are right - I also am very interested to know more when pros make the calls what is the rationale behind...

in the end of course - I assume accomplished traders have their sources and analyses which they have to keep in a discreet way...

Gen dk 14:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 14:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 14:33 GMT May 29, 2007

Yes some trades we win and some we lose just like G Soros

Lahore FM 14:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT May 29, 2007
Thanks dear.

Bodrum OEE 14:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:35 GMT May 29, 2007

Regarding the latter two (JPY,CNY) currencies' overvaluation is at ungrounded levels

Toronto Silverfox 14:37 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
thx you MM

Maribor 14:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Not thinking about that cost me a fortune some years ago...

Gen dk 14:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 14:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
SAINT-PIERRE-LE-VIGER, France, May 29 (Reuters) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Tuesday the euro was the only currency in the world to be overvalued against the U.S. dollar, China's yuan and the Japanese yen.
----------------------------------------------------------
Euro is not the single overvalued currency against USD, JPY and CNY. Almost all are.

Maribor 14:33 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus(and others): isn't it a way of hedging for forex marketmakers to push pair down in which customers have more long positions than short positions(and to push pair up if customers are more short than long). Somehow they must gain back profits lost against succesful traders(and scaplers) which do not let their profits evaporate throu diminishing value of their open positions(if they have any).

hk ab 14:33 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
aud kiwi rather tame inspite of the big move in gold and silver.

London NYAM 14:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Backing out on USDCAD. Bounce was a 3 wave and too tight (1.0718)

Melbourne Qindex 14:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the normal daily cycle lower limit at 1.0705.

Gen dk 14:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:24 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Ginko...by explaining why would have be a rule to add to this forums calls of directions...else maybe better we all hold our calls for ouselves and post just things that matter to a general market obsevation. At least so they teach at the very beginning of this biz, and doubt the rule have changed.

Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
FM, I think it still ranges although it appears the range is narrowing. While I an not short yet, I do have order to do so at 6820 but I have some doubt as to whether or not that gets filled so in Asia I may take it short from 6805/10 area if there.

tokyo ginko 14:21 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad look for major correction in the next 24 hours. GT all

Lahore FM 14:20 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT May 29, 2007
GEP any chance on your screen that it trends rather than range ?tia.

St. Annaland Bob 14:15 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY will die due to over feeding...but, when and at which weight?

madrid mm 14:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
TORONTO SILVER FOX -----

Halifax CB 14:49 GMT April 13, 2007
Men in Black. Sort of like Kampo, or the plunge protection team....

St. Annaland Bob 16:29 GMT February 28, 2007
men in black = death squads of primary dealers (a/c sweepers)

Mtl JP 14:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 14:04 / tx Zeus. Abandoning ship allows for possible salvage operation conciderations.

Lahore FM 14:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
when blackboxes trigger or major players enter at technical hotzones to square up or enter fresh positions,it causes major volatility.some like to think that it is Men IN Black who execute such trades which cause directional movements.it is a gv only term.

London NYAM 14:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:04 GMT May 29, 2007//Probably not worth the virtual ink its written on but it looks bottomy to me. I wonder if a reversal is not around the corner (1.0717). Buying small tranch (my partner will kill me if this works).

Makassar Alimin 14:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:01 GMT May 29, 2007

where do you expect gbpusd heading under your 1.9840?

Toronto Silverfox 14:04 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sorry frd but what is MIB?

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:01 GMT May 29, 2007
Yeah all out for now- too many other things moving/about to move that I need to trade so cut out of USD/CAD at a loss- Most important thing is to know when to cut losses for other opps. We'll see later if there is anything interesting there but for now am heavy on the weekly thematics. GT

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 14:03 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 108.0 (consensus: 105.0, from 106.3 (revised from 104.0)

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Closed eur/gbp longs at target...looks to be decent short from here

The Netherlands Purk 14:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Well for the loonie it is just another zone. It will be difficult for longers to get some pips now, so i am waiting for the 250 pip correction. Might set in at 10671, so i will see if i can place my order there.
Bugger is finally going to do the 164 thing. Waiting for the ever 16450ish. Depends of the range what will be the high of the year.
Another thing: i would not be surprised to see the loonie at 10945 today if MIB take their profits....

USA Zeus 14:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Watchout below GBP/USD and the magical 1.9840 LOL

Mtl JP 14:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:39 / just to confirm: OUT of all dlrcad longs ?

madrid mm 13:53 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
14:00 GMT-
U.S. Consumer confidence May
conensus 105
Previous 104

Melbourne Qindex 13:51 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : On the other hand the market is able to move higher if it can trade above 1.0824. The short term target is 1.0852. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.0824] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0883 // 1.0898. Downside targeting points are 1.0724 and 1.0755.

madrid mm 13:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
meanwhile euro/yen keeps going higher !! 8-+)

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
well sorry -
actually Daily EURJPY is looking bullish with RSI (9) bounced off trendline || MACD is also turning up with Historigram thinning to break above 0 line and only DM is about to have bullish cross...

at the same time however Daily EURCHF is pretty weak - indicators are all pointing down - the test of channel bottom at 1.6480/85 will offer some clue

Melbourne Qindex 13:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:49 GMT May 26, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that it has a tendency to trade between 1.0698 - 1.0852 and the mid-point reference of 1.0698 and 1.0852 is 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, 1.07998* - [1.0813] - 1.0824. A barrier is located at 1.0755. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. On the other hand the market is able to move higher if it can tradThe center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.0824] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0883 // 1.0898. Downside targeting points are 1.0724 and 1.0755.e above 1.0824. The short term target is 1.0852.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0705 - 1.0724* - 1.0734 - 1.0749 // 1.0764* - 1.0779 - 1.0784 - 1.0794 - 1.0804* - 1.0809 - [1.0824] - 1.0839 - 1.0843* - 1.0853 - 1.0863* - 1.0868 - 1.0883* // 1.0898 - 1.0913 - 1.0923* - 1.0943 ...


Directional Indicator : 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824

Cape Town 13:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Ultra long term CAD chart.

Como Perrie 13:42 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
re cad.. me flat...just afraid had been cleaning all my shorts as of late..this early london session......so think about the money I would have made could be well interpreted here as a phylosophycal problem...think you repearing It as from 1.10 usdcad ...so far do not care much there for the time being..I'll wait It to clear out..BOC did not rise int. rates btw but the cad went stronger cleaning all of the cad short stops there..at least 99pct of those or so...

EU theEUROqueen 13:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
and who care about mr.Sarkozy..is he a trader?? ..words do nothing ..

Halifax CB 13:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Typo, sorry:
5 minute chart

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Quite a volatile in-pit session on equities... one would almost think the CC data has been released.

USA Zeus 13:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Gotta let the USD/CAD's go here for a loss to keep with the massive gains on JPY, EUR, GBP action- too many great opps here.

Halifax CB 13:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
re. $CAD - while the 1 hr's are just entring the 1 deviation down level on the main trend (usually a reasonable area to expect a bounce) Chart, no sign of it yet on the shorter frames (like 5 minutes)Chart. I sure wouldn't long the pair, ATM....

slv sam 13:37 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
buying usdcad between 1.04 and 1.05 will be life time oppotunity imo for long term target of 1.25 ...end 2008?GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
interesting enough - EURJPY makes new highs - MACD and DM point lower... just a conflicting observation... might well be wrong..

Lahore FM 13:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
there is a time when each remark on the negative re a currency does quite the opposite of the desired effect.euro is in that stage perhaps.

Mtl JP 13:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy is an ambitious dirigistic small Napoleon: "There isn't a single country in the world where money isn't a political instrument serving growth and employment", Never underestimate the ability of small-penised men to inflict pain on the masses as they try to compensate.

Toronto Silverfox 13:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Go goose go... next level 1.0650

Lahore FM 13:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
from GVI

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT May 29, 2007
GVI Jay / svp... may I introduce Sarkozy to you:

- "There isn't a single country in the world where money isn't a political instrument serving growth and employment"

- "I am asking that we do with the Euro what Americans do with the Dollar, the Japanese with the Yen and the Chinese with their Yuan. Is it too much to ask that the ECB push down the Euro to obtain a more favorable exchange rate?"

USA Zeus 13:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Watch the magical turn signals for GBP/USD in the 1.9840 zone.
Ok- Off for some covert recon. GL GT

Makassar Alimin 13:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
early indication of usdjpy 4hr chart tells me that more strength to come, 122 this time? or do i miss something?

PAR 13:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy said the Euro is the only currency in the world that is overvalued compared to the dollar , the yen and the yuan .

London NYAM 13:23 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:19 GMT May 29, 2007//
EURUSD: Agreed 20 pip-slip on the cards

Gen dk 13:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, all stop set 1.0629 still ?

Lahore FM 13:20 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
BOC keeps rates at 4.25 .

Sarkozy is surely no statesman but has the appeal for the proletariat.

USA Zeus 13:19 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sell CAD and think of al the money you'll make.

Sell EUR/USD for a quick trip south and make the fast $

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:15 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
France's Sarkozy says euro is the only overvalued currency in the world. (Reuters)

San Juan Lil 13:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
...to think of all the money you could have made if you were selling instead of buying, eh?...

USA Zeus 13:13 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
And another at 1.0744. 5 allocations deep and all in for ave cost 1.0800.

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
IF dlrcad closes below 1.0750, 1.0655 next target.

Mtl JP 13:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:04 / one could almost agree, but the Zeusmarine operating manual has some chapters written in French (ribitt)

Look at the procreating record of the Loon, Canada been printing on par with Zimbabwe. almost

Money supply

		2002 	2003 	2004 	2005 	2006    

Gross M1	132,968	143,499	160,879	176,478	197,123 

M2 		551,128 583,056 619,448 652,902 698,743 

M3 		745,724 789,430 860,591 943,605 1,013,712

USA Zeus 13:10 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Another full allocation at 1.0753.
New ave cost 1.0814 on 4 full allocations.

dc CB 13:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 1/2 per cent.

Information received since the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) indicates that economic growth and inflation in Canada in the first part of this year have been stronger than the Bank was expecting. In April, both total CPI inflation, at 2.2 per cent, and core inflation, at 2.5 per cent, were above expectations. On the basis of available information, the Canadian economy is likely to have grown at an annual rate of about 3 1/2 per cent in the first quarter of this year - a full percentage point higher than was estimated in the MPR. The Bank now judges that there is somewhat greater excess demand in the economy than was thought to be the case in April. U.S. economic activity has come in largely as expected and continuing robust growth outside North America has maintained the global demand for, and high prices of, many commodities produced in Canada. Against this overall backdrop, the Canadian dollar has risen appreciably above the range assumed in the Bank's April projection.

On balance, the Bank judges that there is an increased risk that future inflation will persist above the 2 per cent inflation target and that some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target.

The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 10 July 2007.

London NYAM 13:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Probably tick up to 1.9865 first though.

hk ab 13:08 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, to be frank, I am afraid this cad will go to the black hole soon. I am shorting from 1.0860.

London NYAM 13:08 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USDGBP setting up for dump towards 1.9820-30

Como Perrie 13:04 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Zeus...this cad gets frustrating

USA Zeus 13:04 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bought another USD/CAD full allocation at 1.0768

USA Zeus 12:54 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
From a friend-

"C h i n a :

Right after the Strategic Economic Dialogue with the US, China pushed the yuan down by placing the central reference rate lower--after 6 days of putting it higher to appease US calls for appreciation.

According to Bloomberg, the yuan dropped the most in two weeks, down 0.06% to 7.6497 as of the close of trading in Shanghai.

The Shanghai Securities News predicts that inflation will rise over 3% (the April reading) and stay there until at least August due to food prices, news that added a point to the 3-year bond, now yielding 3.24%. The Shanghai Composite rose to another record high. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun has an important story on the risks of Chinese stocks, which Japan cares about because Japanese investment trusts invested in Chinese stocks now tops ÂĄ1 trillion. The first risk is overvaluation by standard yardsticks.

The P/E of Chinese listed stocks is about 47, from 60 just before the 2000 bubble collapse and a range of 10-20 in 2005. The price to book ratio also looks overvalued at 5.4 yesterday, vs. Tokyo and Hong Kong at 2 and “New York stocks, which are now just under 3.” We have no idea whether this study is measuring P/E and price-to-book as a US securities analysis would do. The second big risk is bank lending to speculators, which has not abated despite government pressure. But rising rates have to have an effect at some point, and rates are indeed rising. The Shanghai burped big in Feb when rates were raised, and by a lesser amount in April and last week. Finally, stock regulators are
voicing concerns about the one-way market--and they have the perfect tool to bring down the market--new supply. The NKS ends the story with this ominous reminder--government owns most of the shares in the first place. There is “now a growing possibility that the central and local governments may move to unload a portion of their shareholdings in order to let the air out of any bubble that may be forming in the
stock market.”

China sentenced to death the head of the food and drug ministry for taking bribes. This draconian measure is supposed to quell fear that other contaminated products are being exported, like toothpaste and pet food ingredients. One is reminded of the Japanese resolve in the early 1960’s to stop making cheap trinkets and to impose industry-wide high quality standards, a decision made by the business association Keidanren. Through the remarkable discipline of the Japanese, it worked. In the Chinese case, the average consumer cannot judge quality and we have no reason to suppose that compliance will be voluntary. These entrepreneurs are the worst sort of me-first “capitalists.” (People like this are the reason Milton Friedman was wrong when he said let the market decide in all cases everywhere.) It’s true that regulation can be enforced at extreme levels, but it’s not clear that China has the regulatory infrastructure to carry it out. It’s going to cost China a lot to fix this one."

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
OEE and Bob you are welcome.

Lahore FM 12:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bay,i closed gpchf shorts much sooner due to preoccupation with other trades-it did get down to 2.4220/30 area after the waiting though.

St. Annaland Bob 12:42 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:09 GMT May 29, 2007

tks and good trades to you

jkt-aye 12:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie, thanks. i'm still learning your "sleeping well trading style"...today missed target 121.06. so still trapped on 121.66 short from yesterday. gt

Bodrum OEE 12:36 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore

FM, kind of you, thanks very much

Como Perrie 12:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 12:27 GMT May 29, 2007

No fight just Morgan Stanley and some other friedns defending their synthetic composite bonds issuances, most including the yen and easily sold to customers given the double return they offer in between a world of statistically low inflations not offering enough return for fixed bonds.

jkt-aye 12:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
are there a fight in usjy between tech vs fundamental ?

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
okidoki am back fx on boc :)

hike is expected, but guess factored...gonna see this strangy bouncy apparent no sense what hides...all in all still market having hard times deciding any new direction...too many black boxes and hedgy types going into stops as of late imo


btw syd tks for that avian report...that's the most important thing to me...am waiting for a trend to start soon...long term talking :)

Gen dk 12:24 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 12:10 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 12:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:01 GMT May 29, 2007
gbpusd,projected resistance,as Dr.Q.puts it,situated at 1.9860/70.gbpusd at slight disadvantage compared to eurusd which has first similar resistance at 1.3535.eurgbp is the evident gainer out of this.

perth ss 12:09 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
bob
yep
glgt

USA Zeus 12:06 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:58 GMT May 29, 2007

Esp the Toyota Corollas made by the UAW. LOL

GVI john 12:05 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI

GVI john 12:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

St. Annaland Bob 12:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
cable rejected @ 19900, will EUR manage to go over 13505?

Syd 12:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs Nervous On Carry Trade

Clues that the carry trade could soon unwind are building, says Goldman Sachs. Cites several factors: recovery in some low-yielders, (TWD, CZK, CHF), increasingly tight trading ranges hinting that few players are keen to add to positions, and the fact that carry's bull run is longer and stronger than at any time since '03, suggesting further gains seem unlikely. Also, strong US data and rates are pinching risky assets. Bank advises short NZD/JPY

St. Annaland Bob 11:58 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
funny, soon BigMc in London will cost more than Toyota Corolla in Tokyo ... lol

madrid mm 11:55 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
So much 4 correlation between euro/usd and usd/yen !! lol

Halifax CB 11:52 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
well, there goes 164 eurjpy; now to wait a couple of hours to see whether it turns....

madrid mm 11:51 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., wary of trumpeting its success while U.S. automakers shut plants and cut jobs, is downplaying its sales outlook in North America, said analysts and investors -- who aren't buying it. Click here

Halifax CB 11:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 11:43 GMT May 29, 2007
Ahhh, the Carter Legacy.....and it wasn't peanuts!

madrid mm 11:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:29 GMT May 29, 2007
I wonder what the short seller rate was in 1929?

I woud not know sorry. But i came accross this info @ Click here

It was the quizz on the middle right and side...8+-)

USA Zeus 11:36 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Market has setup for a fabulous swing trading week .

London NYAM 11:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Short EURGBP at .6793 stop above .6820 target @.6700

Lahore FM 11:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:57 GMT May 28, 2007
Bodrum OEE 19:36 GMT May 28, 2007
getting past and under friday's low on gbpusd over next trading day is important to explore further downside potential.if not we are resuming higher on a serious note.

Lahore FM 17:04 GMT May 28, 2007
the weight of overall trend will overtake gbp and contis if further downside is not seen next 24 hours.1.9820 and 1.3420/30 to support then for a complete resumption.wildcard is usdjpy.
-----
the resumption mode is on.1.9840 and 1.3450/60 now hold the downside.

Como Perrie 11:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
as said NYAM, do see some potential...been cleaning out most of things held earlier...so far early to call anything and would not comment much the cad or the yen for the time being...at times makes me feel blatant..gotta foolow coupla things out of da forex world later on as well...

see you then bibi

Halifax CB 11:29 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:31 GMT May 29, 2007
I wonder what the short seller rate was in 1929?

London NYAM 11:29 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
USDGBP appears to have completed a five wave movement up and is now correcting. The implication is that once the corrective phase is complete (1.9780-1.9810) we should be punching through the 1.9900 barrier. The whole move from the high of 2.0133 smells like a wave 4 so that may mean that the upleg over 2.000 has begun. Much will depend on the way the afformentioned second leg up behaves. Analysis corked if we traqde below 1.9675.

London NYAM 11:23 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Hi Perrie//So you are long USDCAD?

Como Perrie 11:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
fwiw have turned coutiusly short the cad earlier, after dumping the lates longs held.

dc CB 11:16 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
No parity for loonie??

St. Annaland Bob 11:12 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
PAR // fewer the politicians, better the economy

PAR 11:11 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
St Annaland / Maybe Japanese government members committing suicide not taking very positively by the markets ?

Global-View Research 10:58 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read (covers BOC rate decision) --

Mellon FX Daily

St. Annaland Bob 10:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
reading carefully BOJ latest comments, watching the data releases at 360 degrees views and still cannot find anything negative for JPY...anyway, Nigeria has new president sworn in ;)

PAR 10:46 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Increased terrorist danger in Germany ahead of next week G8 summit .

USA Zeus 10:43 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
JPY has already proven fun to trade this week as we systematically take profitale trades like free ice cream from the side of the van from that man who smiles.
GBP will be next- like a double scoop of fx ecstasy.

Global-View Research 10:42 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Economics Weekly: Where will UK base rates end 2007? Weekly economic data preview: Busy week for data, headed up by the US NFP report on Friday

GENEVA DS 10:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
netherland..... sorry we means our trading company

The Netherlands Purk 10:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 10:04 GMT May 29, 2007

Who is we? Switserland?

Spotforex NY 10:27 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The problem with most traders is that they do not believe in ever taking losses...So by design or default to look for scape goats to say that the methods used are 'not worth paying for'....


In my opinion one has to stay with a manager, service, or whatever for a length of time in order to gauge its effectiveness.

Personally I have about 7 losing trades for every 3 profitable ones.

It is all about managing positions.


This forum is all about sentiment and ideas. Max provides a service for those who feel it is appropriate.

GV would not allow Max to post ads here if he were not reputable.....


happy hunting all.

Gen dk 10:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 10:19 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:15 GMT May 29, 2007

Perhaps u can't read then.

Swiss comment was " current price was 1.2290 , Staying bullish , Stop under 1.2240 for a move to 1.2330 onto 1.2380.

As i said lets move on, i am not on commision

London NYAM 10:15 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
I received Max's view on Swissy. Looks pretty on target to me. Can't comment on the other views.

GENEVA DS 10:04 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Since a long time, we are subscriber of Max,s service.... it is a very valuable , complementary help. I would not miss that every morning... the only thing , he cannot do , is help you guys make money.... gl

NY NY 10:00 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
London

Max has a well entrench reputation in FX.


What are your views on FX? care to share?

London 09:56 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
No thanks : u were bearish euro, bullish dolls/chf stopped out
bullish dolls/yen, bearish aud +kiwi this morning re your great service.

Wellington, N.Z. 07:01 GMT May 29, 2007
Contrarian Market Thoughts :

If you would like to see my Contrarian Market Thoughts
on the US Dollar, then go to "TRL" under Forex Services
(above).

Max McKegg/TRL

The Netherlands Purk 09:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Keep an eye on the swissy indicator. When it goes under the 122 e/u will face difficulties.
On the other hand can it be true, two times 134++ to 134--?
Lets see if we can see 164+ in bugger today, appointment with 164 still not done yet.
Interesting...

Syd 09:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Mild Bird Flu In UK Has Pandemic Potential - Experts


LONDON (AP)--The four presumed human H7N2 bird flu cases identified in the U.K. last week are a reminder that the next flu pandemic could be sparked by a virus other than the feared H5N1 strain, experts say.

While the global health community's attention in recent years has targeted the H5N1 virus, which has killed at least 186 people worldwide since 2003, some experts worry that attention is being diverted from seemingly less dangerous bird flu subtypes like H7.

"There may be a bit of complacency when it comes to recognizing the pandemic potential of H7 viruses," World Health Organization bird flu expert Dr Michael Perdue said Monday.

Lahore FM 09:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
audusd and nzdusd enjoying some support against usd from spillover of eurusd and gbpusd buying.over a day or two might get bullish on their own.

Syd 09:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
OECD: Fed May Need Another Rate Hike To Control Inflation
OECD: US Needs Reforms To Cope With Shrinking Workforce

GENEVA DS 09:24 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
the world is still not believing in a devaluation of the JPY... obviously there are a lot of stop loss buy orders placed around 16425-40nnn and 12200 and higher,,,

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:18 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS & PAR //
yes really interesting input to the forum you both provide..

Helsinki iw 09:10 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
AUD: Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates identifies Macquarie Bank as prime short candidate. Chanos says Macquarie relies heavily on off-balance sheet financing and related party transactions. If there is a stampede on Macquarie stock, it could affect the AUD, at least temporarily. IMHO.

GENEVA DS 08:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
PAR..

thanks for your Input, I LOVE IT:..... so if it is not the BOJ going under, it will be the JPY.... but most probably both together..... gl

St. Annaland Bob 08:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
cable shorts: out @ 19877

Lahore FM 08:58 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
eurusd,first stopover is 1.3540.

Como Perrie 08:40 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:32 GMT May 29, 2007

:)) I said excatly that there are so many fishy things in the global funds and returns offered that is better to avoid and wait and do on you own if can

newark 08:39 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd has been showing lots of movement and buyers could be looking at a good return today.. So Buy Buy Buy the Euro..

Bodrum OEE 08:37 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
TRY down .67, POLISH ZLOTY .51, RAND .61 GOLD .22 against Yen. JPY futures up .30

PAR 08:35 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Japanese government is becoming so unpopular that at a certain moment BOJ will need to become independent or will go down with the Abe and Omi government .

Bodrum OEE 08:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:22 GMT May 29, 2007

I did not understand what you mean in your post.

In any event that site looks fishy to me (to say the least).

madrid mm 08:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Short sellers are betting against U.S. stocks like never before as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index approaches an all-time high. That's making some of the biggest bulls even more optimistic.

``What the short seller appears to be doing is doubling down,'' said Kenneth Fisher, who oversees about $40 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments in Woodside, California. ``You love to see it, because if you believe there is a basic driver to the bull market, they're going to get run over.''

The amount of shorting -- where traders sell borrowed stocks expecting to buy them back after prices fall -- jumped to 3.1 percent of the total shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange this month. That's the highest since at least 1931, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a research firm in Mamaroneck, New York.

Como Perrie 08:29 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:14 GMT May 29, 2007

and hedge funds o.c. ..

the article imo shows out one of the many typical hedge funds activities, so far not a tendency indicator - for that we will have to see if that goes out in mass maniacs as for bubbles

EU theEUROqueen 08:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob!

the usd happy days its over for now keep selling the usd ..

happy trade

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
also interesting in EURCHF to watch a test of 1.6480 - where channel bottom lies...

Como Perrie 08:25 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Hard to see any linkage between Yen and Metals. But yesterday China has started Its first commodity metal financial index, yes. But just born.

hk ab 08:23 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
seems yen and metals have positively correlated now.

Como Perrie 08:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:14 GMT May 29, 2007

I was just looking at It as the Bubble maniacs companies so present in the global mechanics of finance and whatsoever in present days. From Chinese stocks, to carry trades, to faked balances in merging and aquisitions, to overvalued houses and manipulated official stats that do not count the sellers (at least what Ive seen from recent top analysts quotes last w/e) and so on and on and on and miracles and mirages in two words the global crowd gets mad for as the internet porn in china biz apparently the more returns It offers

St. Annaland Bob 08:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
cable short 19885/90/95/00/05 with 30pips s/l and 75pips target @ 19810 is the current temptation island

Como Perrie 08:19 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=triangle&id=5346544

Syd 08:17 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Thousands of buy-to-let families face tax shock
The taxman is preparing to clamp down on tens of thousands of buy-to-let property owners who may not have paid enough tax, The Times has learnt.

HM Revenue & Customs has identified 80,000 landlords who may have claimed too much tax relief or have failed to declare the amount of rent they receive from the property, or a capital gain made on the sale of the property. There are more than 400,000 buy-to-let landlords in Britain. They borrowed more than ÂŁ94 billion in 2006.
http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article1851885.ece

Bodrum OEE 08:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 18:27 GMT May 28, 2007
ATI Funding Says Dollar's Freefall
Creates Once-In-Lifetime Opportunity

Is ATI Funding a credible business entity in your opinion?

PAR 08:12 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bids from Kampo in USDJPY at 121.00 and 120.75 .

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:07 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
btw - anyone looking in GBPCHF - going to challenge the last high at 2.46 again?

indicators seem fit for upside and daily MAs are all pointing upwards...

Como Perrie 08:03 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
There's lotsa hackers activity btw. Watch out for surfing smaller not official sites, there's plenty of warms, exploiters, trojans and whatever. Also emails freuds and harmful codes attached. So use high protection. Or sell those stocks as the interent casinos, games, 300 and the like...Why the Gov do not ban em I guess.

London NYAM 07:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
It looks to me like we have a larger correction today in USDJPY need a break of 120.90 but odds are very high.
GBPUSD is itching to go up and may get/getting some liket from the cross.

Como Perrie 07:50 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Well to me all seems more or less the same. Nothing to get excited or concerned of. At least as of yet.


btw sow number of companies interested in Alcan growing into sort of competition.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Rumours in the market about Norsk Hydro preparing a bid of more than USD 30 billion for the world’s secondbiggest
aluminium company Alcan, Inc. This coupled with an expected rate hike... it could be interesting to follow EURNOK the next days.

Syd 07:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The Australian dollar slumped to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since April 10 in Asia on Tuesday, as Japanese selling washed into the market.

News that private equity group Kohlberg Kravis Roberts had withdrawn its interest in acquiring retailer Coles Group, also drained support for the Australian dollar, analysts said. KKR was a key element in a consortium expressing its interest in buying Coles. The departure make it increasingly likely Coles will remain in Australian hands, equity analysts said.
Stronger-than-expected Japanese employment data and signs of inflationary risks attracted support to the yen during the day, he said.

But support for the Australian dollar reemerged late in the session, he added.

"It does feel as if retail demand is still being seen," he said.

Attention is locked on a steady widening in key Japanese spreads with 2-year swap rates up by almost 10 basis points in the last week, Rennie said.

Japanese 10-year swap rates are at their highest level since October last year, he added.

"Whether this is the beginning of a major correction in the yen remains to be seen, but certainly it does feel as if the yen has further to go," Rennie said.

Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank, said political factors were also affecting calculations surrounding the yen.

Strong speculation Japan's Abe administration could lose seats in July mid-term elections has some market watchers suggesting a weakened government may not be able to pressure the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low, Grace said.

"Our Japanese interest rate expectations model is showing a greater probability of an interest rate rise even though the economic data has not been supportive of a BOJ rate rise," Grace said.

Gen dk 07:32 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 07:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Looks like GBP/USD wants it pretty bad, the ewe*juan and JPY continue in interest.....Time for that man to arrive so he can smile as he serves free ice cream from the side of his van.

St. Annaland Bob 07:17 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
happy day! ... if OECD & IMF may seen as VOA (voice of America) then US interest is to have JPY as tool against YUAN ... therefore, happy and safe trades!

madrid mm 07:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
this could be why JPY is getting stronger - 8+-)
Japan's Mori wins troubled Miss Universe contest
A raven-haired Miss Japan, Riyo Mori, was crowned Miss Universe 2007 on Monday.../... yahoo.com

Wellington, N.Z. 07:01 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Contrarian Market Thoughts :

If you would like to see my Contrarian Market Thoughts
on the US Dollar, then go to "TRL" under Forex Services
(above).

Max McKegg/TRL

madrid mm 06:57 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
from Bank of Canada web site -
Tuesday, 29 May 2007
Interest Rate Announcement
09:00 (Eastern Time)

madrid mm 06:41 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
8-)
In January, 1981, the fed funds rate traded at the record high of 19.08%. This was slightly higher than the old record, set the previous month in December, 1980, when the fed funds average rate was 18.9%. This was truly an exceptional time considering that since 1984, the fed funds rate has not exceeded 10%. investopedia.com

madrid mm 06:36 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may fall to a seven-week low of $1.3350 against the dollar as investors continue to unwind bets on the currency, said Michiyoshi Kato, a senior currency dealer in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.

Hedge funds and other large speculators reduced bets the euro will rise by 20 percent on May 22 from the previous week, the biggest decline in three months, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed. The euro has dropped 1.2 percent since May 15, when investors were speculating on the currency's advance in record numbers.

madrid mm 06:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
13:00 GMT
CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

madrid mm 06:16 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
“Patience, persistence and perspiration make an unbeatable combination for success” - Napoleon Hill (American author, 1883-1970)

madrid mm 06:14 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
gm FX Jedi,

Japan household spending for April rising by +1.1%y/y, much stronger than expectation of +0.2%, coming in at +0.6%m/m.

Japan's Jobless rate falls to 3.8% in April vs exp of 4.0%, to its lowest in 9 years. Jobs-to-applicant ratios higher at 1.05.

Japan retail sales for April -0.6%y/y, vs mkt expectation of -0.4%.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui has never said BoJ would ignore current prices when deciding on monetary policy. BoJ is looking at not just current prices, but also at long-term outlook for the economy.

Economics Minister Hiroko Ota says she is concerned that wages are not rising despite tighter job market. Consumption is improving. Hopes growing employment and positive output gap will push up prices gradually.

MoF Koji Omi hopes wages will rise ahead as job market tightens in the midst of economic recovery.

FT. The ECB will overhaul its communication strategy and stop using "code words" to signal interest rate changes when the current tightening cycle ends. Germany's Bundesbank President Axel Weber, indicated in an interview with the FT that the ECB would drop the use of phrases such as "strong vigilance".

Weber says ECB might even have to slam on the brakes to damp price pressures. "If necessary we also have to move into a territory that is portrayed as being restrictive, if that is needed to control inflation. "The current cycle of interest rate hikes has not reached its end."

Canadian Press: Industry Minister Bernier brushed aside calls from opposition Liberal Leader Stephane Dion to put a halt to the recent rush of foreign takeovers of Canadian firms.

Choppy Tuesday after the holiday thinned Quiet Monday.

USD/JPY fired the first salvo, by dipping slightly after the better than expected Japan household and jobs data, triggering JPY buying on expectation that BoJ will hike sooner rather than later. USD/JPY dipped slightly to 121.62 from 121.73, while EUR/JPY dipped to 163.65 from 163.73, before edging up a tad on weaker retail sales.

Large Japanese custodian, agricultural bank, and large US investment house out of HK then sold huge amount of EUR/JPY, said to be >EUR1-2b, pushing EUR/JPY down from 163.60-70 through 163.50, and finally to below 163 handle to 162.95 as more stoploss orders were hit.

Hearing Japanese exporters, mega-city banks amongst the good USD/JPY, EUR/JPY sellers as well, pushing USD/JPY to day low of 121.35, from its day highs of 121.79.

Some talks the huge JPY buying linked to JPY repatriation for eurozone bonds and coupons, rising JGBs yields on expectation of BoJ hikes after strong jobs.

Dips in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY still supported by talks of good interest to from Japanese investment trusts, toushin to buy on dips.

EUR back up from 1.3420 lows hit after EUR/JPY sales, on hawkish ECB Weber comments pointing to more ECB rate hikes, beyond 4% post June. EUR/USD offers 1.3480, stoploss on break.

AUD,NZD lower on Cross/ JPY sales, but finding real money demand on dips. GBP/USD off lower after earlier GBP/JPY sales. CAD could be under pressure on calls to halt M+A, focus on Alcan, Norsk Hydro.

Nikkei +72pts at 17,649. JGBs future hit 9-m lows 133.12 on strong jobs, BoJ rate hike fears, yield +0.25% at 1.750%.

Brent Crude oil rebounds, up +14 at $69.85 on concerns over Nigerian supplies.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.35/121.79, EUR/USD 1.3420/1.3455, GBP/USD 1.9818/1.9844, USD/CHF 1.2280/1.2307, AUD/USD 0.8163/0.8195, NZD/USD 0.7250/0.7271.

MELB FX 06:08 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Sell gbp/usd @[email protected]:48 hours

USA Zeus 06:02 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The cat is out of the bag and no way to get it back in- Chinese ewe*juan will surge soon.

USA Zeus 05:59 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Seems like GBP/USD really wants to make that move we discussed earlier when it leaves the magical 1.9840 fulcrum point in the dust.

Syd 05:55 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - The yen pulled back from a three-month low against the dollar on Tuesday after upbeat data further stoked expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the next few months.

link

The Netherlands Purk 05:47 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
It seems that the e/j is continuing this 16370-16318-16277 thing. Still have appointment for 16450ish.
No news on loonie, have to see some time later, pattern does its thing now. 10891 ruins the pattern...

Syd 05:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Family investors lose $300m
A HIGH-risk property investment scheme has collapsed, owing mum and dad investors more than $300 million.

Estate Property Group and its investment arm Australian Capital Reserve called in administrators yesterday. http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21810810-661,00.html

USA Zeus 05:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Looks like GBP and JPY will be the most fun to trade this week.

Bodrum OEE 05:17 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
AZUSA

Thank you.

USA Zeus 04:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Bought another USD/CAD full alocation in one lump sum @ 1.0807. Anticipating the communistic liberals in Canada to ruin the M&A heat. 2 full positions now ave 1.0868.

canmore cyclops 04:45 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
When asked about a Markets direction, I always answer people "the market will fluctuate" and guess what, I am almost always right. Sorry for the useless comment, but I am hoping some people might see what I am trying to say

hk ab 04:38 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
RP, are you ready to trigger the north move?

USA Zeus 04:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD back to the magical 1.9840 area.
Anticipate price to now move away 100-150+ pips within 24-48 hrs.

GL GT
Off for some black ops

Wellington, N.Z. 04:28 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Today’s FX Trading Forecasts :

EURO/USD & USD/CHF are expected to
provide the best trading opportunities Today.

To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX
Trading Forecasts go to "TRL" under
Forex Services (above).

Max McKegg/TRL

Mumbai NS 04:08 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Usdjpy seems interesting sell

gl gt

Dallas DEX 03:49 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
The Smart Money seems to be impacting EURJPY!

Dallas DEX 03:45 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Greetings fellow traders!

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:31 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
OEE, from my end (strictly shorter frame cycles), the current bias remains positive for EURJPY and USDJPY as long as we hold 163 and 120.95, respectively. GBPJPY would need to retake 241.4 to restore a positive bias. Most asian broader indices (except HK) seem to be in positive teritory; thus, I'm not puting much faith in the current Yen moves. Of course, all subject to change.

Syd 02:44 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Japan Ota Says Employment In "Very Good Shape"
Japanese Economy Minister Ota says Japan's employment situation in "very good shape," after April labor survey logs jobless rate at 9-year-low 3.8%. But cautious about sluggish wage growth, suggesting she's closely watching if positive effect of upbeat employment spreads to wages, then consumption. April household spending +1.1% on year, but government says likely due to seasonal education costs.

Lahore FM 01:48 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
CA_SF 01:38 GMT May 29, 2007
it hasn't made any headway on the upside.still might survive 1f 9800 holds also gbpjpy must hold 240.60 or else we go much lower on both.

CA_SF 01:38 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
lahore:

whats your view on gbp/usd?

thx

Lahore FM 01:30 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy just about starting to tick lower.it can develop into something much larger.

Melbourne Qindex 01:26 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:26 GMT May 27, 2007
CAD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is going to challenge 113.03 - 113.15.

Melbourne Qindex 12:17 GMT May 27, 2007
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... Heading towards 1.0683. Projected barriers are located at 1.0710 - 1.0740 and 1.0773.

Melbourne Qindex 12:10 GMT May 27, 2007
CAD/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is heading towards 1.1425.

Melbourne Qindex 12:03 GMT May 27, 2007
GBP/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is heading towards 2.1150. A barrier is expected at 2.1308.

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT May 27, 2007
AUD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is testing the lower barrier at 0.8780 // 0.8868. The next barrier is expected at 0.8692.

Melbourne Qindex 09:52 GMT May 27, 2007
EUR/CAD (Monthly Cycle ) : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series a resistant level has been established at 1.4621 - 1.4647. The market is going to head for the barrier at 1.4443 - 1.4470. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.4068 - 1.4102.

Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:55 GMT May 27, 2007
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle lower barrier is positioning at 120.80 // 121.45. A projected resistant point is located at 123.19. Other barriers are located at 122.10, 122.32 and 122.76. The center of the daily cycle is found at [122.00] and the normal lower limit is defined at 120.82.


Daily Cycle : ... 120.82 - 121.01* - 121.11 - 121.26 // 121.41* - 121.55 - 121.60 - 121.70 - 121.80* - 121.85 - [122.00] - 122.14 - 122.19* - 122.29 - 122.39 - 122.44 - 122.59* // 122.73 - 122.88 - 122.98* - 123.18 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 119.90* - 122.00 - (124.06)


Melbourne Qindex 07:32 GMT May 27, 2007
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.8143 - 0.8276. A projected supporting point is located at 0.8076. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [0.8110] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8210 // 0.8235. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8200] and the lower barrier is located at 0.8134 // 0.8147. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8156 which is the normal 3-day cycle reference lower limit.


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8095 - 0.8113* - 0.8121 - 0.8134 // 0.8147* - 0.8160 - 0.8165 - 0.8174 - 0.8182* - 0.8187 - [0.8200] - 0.8217 - 0.8217* - 0.8226 - 0.8234 - 0.8239 - 0.8252* // 0.8265 - 0.8278 - 0.8287* - 0.8304 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8110) - 0.8200 - 0.8264*


Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT May 27, 2007
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2242 - 1.2329. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above [1.2372] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2416. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.2290] and the upper barrier is located at 1.2350 // 1.2365.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2170 - 1.2190* - 1.2200 - 1.2215 // 1.2230* - 1.2245 - 1.2250 - 1.2260 - 1.2270* - 1.2275 - [1.2290] - 1.2305 - 1.2310* - 1.2320 - 1.2330 - 1.2335 -1.2350* // 1.2365 - 1.2380 - 1.2390* - 1.2410 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.2288* - 1.2290 - (1.2372)


Melbourne Qindex 14:21 GMT May 26, 2007
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.9757 - 1.9890. A projected resistant point is located at 2.0024. The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at [1.9823] and the lower barrier is located at 1.9573 // 1.9623. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats further and penetrates through the projected supporting level at 1.9623 - 1.9638. The center of the daily cycle is located at [1.9849] and the normal lower limit is defined at 1.9675.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.9675 - 1.9704* - 1.9718 - 1.9740 // 1.9762* - 1.9783 - 1.9791 - 1.9805 - 1.9820* - 1.9827 - [1.9849] - 1.9870 - 1.9878* - 1.9892 - 1.9907 - 1.9914 - 1.9936* // 1.9957 - 1.9979 - 1.9993* - 2.0022 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.9765* - [1.9823] - 1.9849


Melbourne Qindex 10:00 GMT May 26, 2007
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.3363 - 1.3447 and the mid-point reference of 1.3363 and 1.3447 is 1.3405. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.3354 - 1.3363. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.3249 // 1.3280. A projected supporting level is located at 1.3244 - 1.3249. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at 1.3460 and the upper barrier is located at 1.3497* // 1.3506. The normal daily cycle upper limit is defined at 1.3534.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3386 - 1.3398* - 1.3404 - 1.3413 // 1.3423* - 1.3432 - 1.3435 - 1.3441 - 1.3447* - 1.3451 - [1.3460] - 1.3469 - 1.3472* - 1.3478 - 1.3485 -1.3488 - 1.3497* // 1.3506 - 1.3515 - 1.3522* - 1.3534 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.3405) - 1.3460 - 1.3569*



Melbourne Qindex 07:49 GMT May 26, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that it has a tendency to trade between 1.0698 - 1.0852 and the mid-point reference of 1.0698 and 1.0852 is 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, 1.07998* - [1.0813] - 1.0824. A barrier is located at 1.0755. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. On the other hand the market is able to move higher if it can tradThe center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.0824] and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.0883 // 1.0898. Downside targeting points are 1.0724 and 1.0755.e above 1.0824. The short term target is 1.0852.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0705 - 1.0724* - 1.0734 - 1.0749 // 1.0764* - 1.0779 - 1.0784 - 1.0794 - 1.0804* - 1.0809 - [1.0824] - 1.0839 - 1.0843* - 1.0853 - 1.0863* - 1.0868 - 1.0883* // 1.0898 - 1.0913 - 1.0923* - 1.0943 ...


Directional Indicator : 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824


Melbourne Qindex 01:19 GMT May 26, 2007
USD/CAD : Keep an eye on the Crude Oil.


Crude Oil (CL) (July) : The market is trying to overcome the projected resistant level at [65.29] - [65.48]. The upside targeting points are 66.05 and 67.32. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below 64.61 and it will challenge the critical level of the monthly cycle charts at 62.57 - 63.95. The downside targeting points are 63.17 and 64.30.


Daily Cycle : ... 61.74 - 62.21* - 62.45 - 62.81 // 63.17* - 63.53 - 63.65 - 63.89 - 64.13* - 64.25 - [64.61] - 64.97 - 65.09* - 65.33 - 65.57 - 65.69 - 66.05* // 66.40 - 66.76 - 67.00* - 67.48 ...

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:05 GMT May 29, 2007 Reply   
daily close in EURJPY isn't bullish at all... maybe the better than expexcted Japan data will be digested and will produce Yen demand later.. maybe..