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Forex Forum Archive for 05/30/2007

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Aus Stu 23:59 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Aus Stu 12:04 GMT May 30, 2007
Nice 4hr descending triangle on Ozzy, squint hard & a litttle H & S on 1hr, face plant soon??? ADP will tell, short from .8217 about a week ago. Patience is a virtue I'm told
---------------------------------------------

Hmmm, guess that question was answered, LOL, that's stops are for I suppose.

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
2332 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY retains upward bias but may hug 163.00-163.80 band with little to spur new longs, says trader at Tokyo securities company; "many players still want to buy the euro/yen given the wide rate gap (between Europe and Japan) but it's hard as there's little fresh material in Asia." Players still watching stocks for any signs of yen carry trade unwinding, but nerves calmer after fairly limited broader impact yesterday of China stock slide. Japan investors may actively buy to invest in foreign bonds, but speculative selling by Asia fund players may curb gains. EUR/JPY last at 163.28 on EBS.

hk ab 23:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GVI, I remember you have a section teaching traders to read candlesticks, where is it? TIA.

Lahore FM 23:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
time for jpy coup de force'.

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
pretty compressed 35 pip range in USDJPY..

Alaska Moon 22:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:57 GMT May 30, 2007
===========
It seems that when we make a statement on the forum, we, of course, know what we mean !! LOL Sometimes we wonder why other people don't get it !!
I assume you mean by getting lower against the majors, you mean AUD,NZD, etc are getting stronger...
Moon

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:13 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
JJ //
hi - in that sense I get it..
yes JPY was sold to the 121.69.. while CHF stays unchanged..
AUD and NZD are up..

I watch with "vigilance" USDJPY if it looks back to the 45/40 area (for a possible breakdown there)..

LKWD JJ 21:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:40 GMT May 30, 2007
sorry J, may I ask what you meant by "Carry trade currencies moving lower ahead of Asian opening
==============================
it means the ccy used for fueling the carry ie jpy were moving lower vs usd, eur, gbp. which means the carry trade was on as opposed to unwinding.

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:54 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:43 //
tnx for the notice!!
as I try new short EURJPY from 163.38 - I was a bit puzzled by what I see and that comment..

Syd 21:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:33 GMT Hi, yes saw something earlier in the week from him,

RIC fxq 21:43 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:40 GMT

noticed that myself and wondered as JPY crosses were firmer. Suspect he meant USD EUR and GBP were firming but can say for certain.

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:40 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
sorry J, may I ask what you meant by "Carry trade currencies moving lower ahead of Asian opening."
.. excuse me - just because I'm really confused as I looked at all xxx/JPY crosses (4 hour charts) and they all point higher..

LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
what does dax-ftse spread show us ? buy eurgbp? its been falling lately as this picture shows a wider spread.

USA BAY 21:33 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Heard from SYDNEY ACC?? Have not seen his post for a while. thanks

Syd 21:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Rate rises damp eurozone mortage lending
Mortgage lending growth in the 13-country eurozone has slowed to the lowest for more than three years as higher interest rates begin to bite, according to European Central Bank figures
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2586e0ae-0e8d-11dc-b444-000b5df10621.html

GVI john 21:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM- its no problem at all!

Lahore FM 21:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 21:03 GMT May 30, 2007
The bourses charts are a nice addition really.many thanx!

Syd 21:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
ALP's diplomacy breach risks China ties
Political editor
May 31, 2007
AUSTRALIA'S relations with China have been compromised after Labor committed a diplomatic breach by warning the Chinese not to trust the Government's "nice words" about President Hu Jintao's visit.Labor foreign affairs spokesman Robert McClelland yesterday launched an extraordinary diplomatic attack on Alexander Downer, telling a visiting Chinese delegation in Parliament House that the Foreign Minister was a "hypocrite" and could not be trusted.

The warning, made directly to senior Chinese officials and the Chinese ambassador to Australia, will cast a diplomatic shadow over Mr Hu's visit in September.

USA Zeus 21:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:17 GMT May 30, 2007

We'll just keep playing until the gaming commission realizes the slot payout has been too great.

GVI john 21:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Charts; Closing Bourses..

JPY-Nikkei HKD-Hang Seng AUD-ASX/S&P-200 CNY-Shanghai Comp

GBP-FTSE GER-DAX CHF-SMI

USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P CAD-TSE

GVI john 21:00 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI


Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

GENEVA DS 20:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
AUDCHF starts his ascent.... a normal target for medium term is about 1.1200, sl 10000.... what a mover today... good night...

GENEVA DS 20:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
AUDCHF starts his ascent.... a normal target for medium term is about 1.1200, sl 10000.... what a mover today... good night...

GVI john 20:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

LKWD JJ 20:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
zeus lets just hope that nobody pulls the plug out!!!!

USA Zeus 20:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 25, 2007
Buying yen crosses (SELLING YEN) on dips (YEN RALLIES) continues like that slot machine with flashing lights and loud sirens shooting endless coins out after hitting a jackpot.

LKWD JJ 19:48 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
seems like chinese were not funding stock purchases with yen as $y had little reaction to csi selloff. maybe when everyone expects something to happen , it doesnt.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:42 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
btw - JPY I guess is key - an upside break out of the Ascending Triangle formation will give strength to challenge previous highs above 122...

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:40 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY reversed at the yesterday bottom at 162.95..
stox shrugged off China worries - let's see Nikkei..
might well happen like on the Pro side is said tommorow CSI regains the losses and carry goes on..
actually all JPY crosses are in bullish mode..

USA Zeus 19:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GOOG near (498.59) the magical 500 marker.

LKWD JJ 19:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
looks like usa to the world rescue once again as dow jones turn positive resting fear of a global equity selloff, at least for the now.

USA Zeus 19:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
TY! Time to stop on COP and VLO and reel in the trophy.

jkt-aye 19:18 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Monaco oil man 18:39
if your cable long come from TA, do you mind to tell me from what time frame you see your signal ? just for my learning process. fyi i'm still short it from 1.9812 y'day, not set target but stop at 1.9769 now. tia

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:54 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Oil man - tnx1

EURJPY short - missed an exit near 163.00 and closed at -3pips.. very stupid of me..
completely confused on direction in this trade.

USA Zeus 18:46 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Go COP go! Take VLO with you!!! and I will go for massive profit locks.

Monaco Oil man 18:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:12 GMT May 30, 2007
I see 1.5470-1.5512 as good place to short from here..Above risks of runnup.

---
Kevin :

Not accumulating, waiting for more upside first.
--
Took some GBP longs 1.9748 stops 20 for 1.9956.

london jas 18:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:10 GMT May 30, 2007
Zues - are you still in your short gbp/usd ?....thanks

Global-View New Feature 18:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
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Mtl JP 18:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
..only somewhat..

madrid mm 18:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 18:19 GMT May 30, 2007

there is value in this !! 8+-)

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
ECB should be raising next week and quite possibly a 2nd time before 07 is out as Euro money growth somewhat down at 10.4% in April from 10.9% in March (some of the rapidest printing in a long long time)

bucharest nick 18:24 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
and do you think it will move below 1.34?

USA Zeus 18:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
bucharest nick 18:11 GMT May 30, 2007
Just another one of the primary instruments I trade. Went short y'day when posted a freebie trade from 1.3505

USA Zeus 18:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Today the commods are like a gelatinous blob

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
mm //
might be that they convey their messages thru post doves - once a message is not delivered, it might be caused by a passing hawk who ate the dove..
if this is enough of humor ..

madrid mm 18:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Gosh , so many people in this meeting!!!! I wonder how big is the meeting table !!! They might need speakers to listen to each other.

U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes for May 9 (Text) Click here

bucharest nick 18:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus what is your opinion on eur/usd?tia

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
interesting enough USDJPY so close to the trednline support at 121.40 - will it give way..

USA Zeus 18:10 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD went from balance point 1.9840 to 1.9740 LOL

London NYAM 18:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Now for the position squaring. Should give an indication of where specs wanted to go. Otherwise not much to other info IMHO. GLGT

Lahore FM 18:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
nothing changed materially other than hawkishness,wah.

USA Zeus 18:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
bucharest nick 17:08 GMT May 30, 2007

Over next 48 hrs It will be like king crab fishing in the great Bering Sea- a modern day gold rush for some and sadly, the deadliest catch for others.

RIC fxq 18:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:48 GMT

not when the Jr Senator from NY becomes prez, she's said "furriners" should be restricted in the amount of Tsy obligations they could hold.

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:02 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
1800 GMT [Dow Jones] There was a slightly hawkish tinge to the last FOMC meeting. Policy makers remained worried by "uncomfortably high" inflation that was not "convincingly" on a downward drift, amid an economy where downside risks had diminished. All told, the minutes seem to push further aside expectations the Fed will cut rates.

Sydney Alimin 17:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
very nice to see gbpusd kept well under 1.9760, should see continuation tomorrow towards 1.9650, good luck guys, off for some sleep

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:48 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
apparently someone is selling the EURJPY and GBPJPY crosses as the majors didn't move much..

NYC 17:48 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Shows current lack of concern but a ticking time bomb?

Foreign U.S. Notes Rise to 80 Percent; Treasuries Irresistible

London NYAM 17:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 17:42 GMT May 30, 2007// It can also be interpreted as a b-wave with wave A from may 23rd high of 121.86 to 120.84. If so a c-wave is still due. Once again the highs of 121.86 will be significant. Otherwise targeting 120.20 area. (for me anyway).

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:42 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
sorry for this by I just zoomed the 4 hour chart and USDJPY is on a healthy 45 degree trendline - and the present formation is actually an Ascending Triangle - a sign of Continuation...

melbourne DC 17:37 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy 240 breach should count for something?
that lvl is rpt resistance midapr-midmay, and today uptrend from mid-mar.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:36 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
well actually this is trendline Support from the start of the move on May 10 -- on 2 our chart it looks like a Triangle formation

London NYAM 17:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD currently trading under the support line from the 14 Mar low to the 21 May low. It better buck up! Who let the doves out?

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:32 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY have a trendline support on Hourly chart around 121.40 - it kept on the downside 3 attempts on the rise..
it is important if this short term line is broken down..

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
[BOE"S BLANCHFLOWER] is on the wires, suggesting there appears to be upside risks to inflation, but he does not fear a wage spiral in the short-term. Blanchflower says the bank has not been ignoring frothy money supply. On jobs, he states that it must be assumed that labour market weakness has more than offset increased capacity constraints. Recall earlier in the week, Blanchflower said another rate hike is not a certainty, and intimated any move will still be data dependent. There has been no Gbp reaction. IGM

Como Perrie 17:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Have a profitable evening. I'll not be watching FOMCs minutes, will spare energies for tomorrow asean market. Doubt anything significant out of minutes, as the FED is capped between pressures of a cut to revive the US economy and other inflationary factors pushing behind. So hence something in between.

Also MPC rite now speech by important member did not have much an impact.

Yet am thinking some selling tomorrow onto Chinese stocks might follow up. So will see then.

bi

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:16 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR and GBP look like on a test of new lows..

bucharest nick 17:10 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
what do u think about eur/usd? tia

bucharest nick 17:08 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
zeus, when do you think the storm will begin?in a few moments,hours, etc...?

USA Zeus 17:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FX land is is in the calm before the storm....

Como Perrie 16:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Commerce dept. has just started to set anew higher tariffs on Chinese imports.

USA Zeus 16:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 back to the top of its channel here.

USA Zeus 16:51 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading petro stocks VLO and COP today on the nice smooth as butter swing to higher levels.

London NYAM 16:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Time for chart reviews and systems checks. This is rather dull.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
12:19pm EDT (Reuters) - Stocks erased most losses and were little changed on Wednesday as optimism about share buybacks offset the impact of a sell-off in Chinese equities overnight...

Bodrum OEE 16:46 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Should one look into it, the starter taking JPY crosses down or Yen higher was possibly USD. I have posted to NYAM earlier (last week) about relocation (I thought was wise money) that was detectible on a derivative graph (which was on GBP/JPY). It disappeared and or switched into USDJPY, the more popular of the two where down signal accelerated, once it peaked. EUR and GBP followed (both inspite being relaxed currencies until now could increasingly become more stressed to descend in value due to national reasons and would do so as CNY and JPY stregthen, as we go by). On the other hand I will not be surprised to see the US Dollar to be the first to hike in value as well as it did downwards when fundamentals permit it. A hybrid (fundamental and technical) observation. It is from a non-tech oriented person (please treat it with the necessary caution the condition warrants). Good night

HK Kevin 16:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Not much follow through on the downside of EUR/JPY, closed 1/4 short position earlier at 163.09.

madrid mm 16:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Subprime Fiasco Exposes Manipulation by Mortgage Brokerages - May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Taher Afghani was working for discount retailer Target Corp. near San Francisco when friends told him about the riches to be made in California's Mortgage Alley. Click here

melbourne DC 16:27 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
0743 GMT [Dow Jones] With little other new data from the US later in the day, expect the ADP Employment Report (1215 GMT) to attract more attention than usual. RBC Capital Markets notes that last month's report correctly highlighted the downside risks to the non-farm payrolls with the series tending to identify risks on the weaker side of consensus. "Another downside surprise would be difficult to ignore," the bank says. The consensus forecast is for a 95K rise in May after April's 64K increase. Payrolls are forecast to rise by 145K, up from a 88K increase. (NEH)

melbourne DC 16:21 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
S.P.R.
In US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In China Strategic Pork Reserve

USA Zeus 16:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT May 30, 2007

Yw GEP- Am all too familiar with those ISD tax bills these days ;-)
GT!

USA Zeus 16:02 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:45 GMT May 30, 2007

I remember last year the teeth grinding that was going on with the tight ranges for the primaries during a global convergence- (excluding EUR/JPY. Some consider this a primary and some do not). I still favor the good old GBP/USD for volatility play. Do think the yen related trades are red hot so keeping and eye there. Will review my journal for more details. Good to keep a trading journal full of thoughts about the trades, plans, charts and new addition is a video recording of each session.

As for now -seems to me the market is still digesting the shake-in/shake-out from the extremes for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Once backfilled and digested we ought to see the summer develop as the global decoupling (think train) accelerates.

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
THX Zeus, you should see the school tax bills we pay!!! LOL

USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
On another note- congrats to Dallas Texas for having the #1,2 and 14 best high schools in the US according to the most recent issue of Newsweek.

Dallas GEP 15:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Actually AB, that should be a very good trade IMO.

London NYAM 15:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Lowering stop to above 240.40 on GBPJPY

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 15:35 / how volatile were they last summer ?

Favour any one over the others ?

hk ab 15:45 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
sounds a bit crazy but let's add dlr/cad short here 1.0750.

Sydney Alimin 15:43 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:37 GMT May 30, 2007

am with you with the gbpusd trade, looking ok so far, hopefully further downside extension tomorrow to close the month with some nice profit

another rescue effort on usdjpy front, now it is make or break situation as well there...it is always well supported there and if we dont go lower anymore then maybe tomorrow will see a BO to 122

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
shorted nZD/USD here...stop 7350 target 7250...anticipate some USD buying during next few days

USA Zeus 15:37 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:35 GMT May 30, 2007

Cut out of USD/CAD as posted y'day
Have been a heavy seller of EUR/USD and GBP/USD as posted and trading quite a bit in EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

HK Kevin 15:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:18 GMT, you know I am looking for more. The range of EUR./JPY for May is only ~300 pips, which is relatively narrow as compared with the previous months. The uptrend is still intact with correction even to 160, above the previous high 159.61. With one day left for this month, it seems unrealistic, unless the USD/JPY made a deep water dive.

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Anticipate summer trading for the primaries to be much more volatile than last year.

London NYAM 15:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:30 GMT May 30, 2007
The USD camp grows and grows...
Across the board or are you only on USDCAD and/or EURUSD?

Lahore FM 15:23 GMT May 30, 2007
Anytime friend.

GENEVA DS 15:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD infront of big fall.... but not against Major currencies... EUR, GBP will stay in VERY tight range and AUD, NZD and CAD together with INR and BRL will explode... gl gt... may be tomorrow new high for chinese stocks... i.e. carry trade to restart....

USA Zeus 15:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
The USD camp grows and grows...

Lahore FM 15:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:19 GMT May 30, 2007
thanx NYAM for such an elaborate reply.

London NYAM 15:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM//Also between the EURJPY cross and the GBPJPY I think the former looks more clear as a drop play then the latter even though I am in the latter cross.

London NYAM 15:19 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM//Normally I would but, Im seeing a second upleg in USDGBP that should outstrip the EUR move in the very short term. I think they will become buddies again very soon afterwards if the pattern plays out. Admittedly it seems to be taking longer for the EURGBP cross to make its last downleg than I would like and it is hanging around the upper limit of the pattern uncomfortably. It may be that the EURUSD breaks down to allow the pattern to play as it is also uncomfortably down at the bottom of its range. For me the move/fall on GBPJPY will be a JPY strengthening play not a GBP dump. Not yet anyway, im ready to switch sides if the Euro cross misbehaves.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:18 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:15 //
can't agree more - GT!
162.60 being a long term Resistance from April 4, 2006 turned Support now
162.20 Up Channel bottom line

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:16 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
jumping off the cliff is good for JPY!

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT, EUR/JPY 162.60 is coming, then 162.20

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:12 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:07 //
I saw on the Daily EURCHF it broke down the channel - but since you also follow it - may I ask is it better always a retrace to the breakdown point - or short it once a lower open confirms the breakdond??

which eventually would have entered us at 1.6480 on the initial break..

Lahore FM 15:09 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYAM,would you not agree that a falling gbpjpy and rising eurgbp are natural buddies?as gbpjpy gets into deeper correction,we may keep rising on eurgbp.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Kevin //
from my trade in EURJPY 2 weeks ago I noticed that GBPJPY was leading and EURJPY a bit lagging...

Monaco Oil man 15:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:54 GMT May 30, 2007

They save a lot, though a year worth is 1 month worth of average US guy..

--
Meanwhile Aud is solid , so far.
EURCHF break here calls for yesterday's target ..Probably need to enter close to 1.5480.
gl gt

Lahore FM 15:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:44 GMT May 30, 2007
yes,had first one at 241.40 and average 240.99.it was cooking mid asian session and yesterday.

HK Kevin 15:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:44 GMT, are you the one quietly accumulate AUD?

HK Kevin 15:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP hourly below 240.10 target 239.20. Hope my EUR/JPY will follow soon.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
JP, you just give the opprtunity of a poor man to accumulate some wealth and he will do his best spending it right away..
stock market presents there the common people with an opprtunity at last after all those years...
big and expensive brands race to sell there and once their average monthly earnings exceed the minimum of 100-200 USD they will start spending even more..

Mtl JP 14:54 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Oil man 14:44 / what is your assessment about the Chinese as "savers" ?

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:44 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM ,
l looked the Daily GBPJPY - apparently you were there before it jumped off the cliff - here like NYAM says the jet pack might have been fake..(this might refer to the CSI -6% close)

Monaco Oil man 14:44 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:03 GMT May 30, 2007

Chineses are great consumers , all they need is product sold at their wages level or time till they catch up in prices , which might take some time..

London NYAM 14:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:27 GMT May 30, 2007 //Edge of a rock indeed. Its coiling up like Wiley Cayote. Either his jet pack will work and censored fly to 128 or he will do the usual pause in mid air before you know what.

USA Zeus 14:33 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:28 GMT May 29, 2007
GBP/USD back to the magical 1.9840 area.
Anticipate price to now move away 100-150+ pips within 24-48 hrs


Stage one complete of the freebie trade.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:27 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks FM
thanks NYAM

just saw the Daily USDJPY - not sure of course but looks like its at the edge of a rock
DM is just an idea away from +DI crossing down & MACD is is about to show a down bias... but certainly market will show better..

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:06 GMT, EUR/JPY needs an hourly close below 163.10 fur further downside. I'm also holding short from 164.21 last night.
Does anyone notice AUD rise silently above 8220. Reistance at 8240. A daily break of 8270 means the current correction wave is over. My view is to sell near 8240 for 8070, stop above 8270. Also watch AUD/JPY for reference

Lahore FM 14:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Dow 13,494.52 - 26.82
NASDAQ 2,563.95 - 8.11
S&P 1,515.67 - 2.44

Kaprikorn,we need some signs of support from usdjpy for eurjpy to come lower.it hasn't happnened.things will change when that happens.

Jas,we might have seen the low for gbpusd.

London NYAM 14:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Very short term there is still a risk to 1.6363 and break to 16380/164. But after this it should make its way to 162.40. To be honest Im really expecting the largest move to be USDJPY going below 121.00 but its a nasty one. The Euro seems unwilling to attack the stops under 1.3400 but the release of news my be used as an impetus as we broke 13410 already.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM & NYAM //
hello sirs,
currently holding short at 163.25
> on 4 hour chart is still under Daily pivot at 163.4 with MACD & DM still bearish
may I ask for your ST view on EURJPY?

london jas 14:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:28 GMT May 30, 2007
Do you think gbp/usd has seen its low for today or another spike down yet? thnx

Sydney Alimin 14:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
this will be very interesting if gbp is above 1.9830 today, doubt it will happen but just in case..i will be stopped out by then at 1.9808

madrid mm 14:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FOMC Minutes, what are they ?

Definition
On December 14, 2004, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that they would release the minutes of each meeting with a three week lag. This is a vast improvement from the previous release of the minutes which ranged from a six to eight week lag. While the FOMC releases a statement after each meeting which describes the policy action (or inaction), the minutes generate a lot of attention in the financial markets because they reveal more details on the discussion of the most recent FOMC meeting.

Why Do Investors Care?
The FOMC has changed dramatically in the transparency of its operations. It now discloses policy changes at the end of each meeting. Historically, the Fed used to keep investors guessing about policy changes. Historically, Fed officials did not appear on the speaking circuit as frequently as they do now.

In today's environment, where disclosure is more pronounced, reading the minutes of the previous month's meeting is not always as enlightening as it used to be. However, the minutes do include the complete economic analysis compiled by Fed officials and whether or not any FOMC members have voiced opinions at odds with the rest of the group.

Investors who want a more detailed description of Fed opinions will generally read the minutes closely. However, the Fed discloses its official view at the end of each FOMC meeting with a public statement. Fed officials make numerous speeches, which freely give their views to the public at large. Bloomberg.com

Lahore FM 13:40 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:32 GMT May 30, 2007
yes will know soon.thanx for the e-wave view.

London NYAM 13:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
make that wrong at .6824

London NYAM 13:32 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM//I have a very short term c-wave that should extend lower first before a resumption towards .7000. I have my trade as unlikely on break of .6810 and wrong at break of .6820.
Should find out pretty soon i think anyway.

Lahore FM 13:28 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
with due respect to NYAM and GEP eurgbp looks to be on a sustained rise back to 0.6850/55.each correction lower since 0.6760 area,has found ready support.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:18 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY seems to be attempting a break down of the fastr up channel on 4 hour chart..

London NYAM 13:18 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GEP//Re EURGBP. fwiw I dont see us getting there. Should be downhill from here. Might be wrong of course.

madrid mm 13:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mortgage lending growth in the 13-country eurozone has slowed to the lowest for more than three years as higher interest rates begin to bite, according to European Central Bank figures. FT.com

madrid mm 13:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
ECB signals end to use of ‘code words’

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: May 28 2007 22:06 | Last updated: May 28 2007 22:06

The European Central Bank will overhaul its communication strategy and stop using “code words” to signal interest rate changes when the current tightening cycle ends, according to a leading member of its governing council.

Axel Weber, Germany’s Bundesbank president, indicated in an interview with the Financial Times that the ECB would drop the use of phrases such as “strong vigilance” – used to indicate that borrowing costs would rise in one month – and hinted he had become frustrated at their use. FT.com

Dallas GEP 13:14 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Closed rest of gbp shorts from 1.9861. Flat on that pair now. Still not in eur/gbp short, waiting for 6810/15 again

madrid mm 13:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
---> We might be in for some Agflation

An increase in the price of food that occurs as a result of
increased demand from human consumption and use as an alternative energy resource. While the competitive nature of retail supermarkets allows some of the effects of agflation to be absorbed, the price increases that agflation causes are largely passed on to the end consumer. The term is derived from a combination of the words 'agriculture' and 'inflation'.

Investopedia Says:
------------------------------------------------------------
Interest in alternative energies contributes to agflation. In forder to produce biofuel (such as biodiesel and ethanol),
manufacturers need to use food products such soybeans and corn. This creates more demand for these products, which causes their prices to increase.
Unfortunately, these price increases spread to other non-fuel
related grains (such as rice and wheat) as consumers switch to
less expensive substitutes for consumption. Furthermore,
agflation will also affect non-vegetative foods (eggs, meat
and dairy) as the price increases for grain will make livestock
feed more expensive as well.

RIC fxq 13:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 11:52 GMT May 30, 2007

... "The risk is of course that the Chinese start to consume like the westerners, then the period of benign disinflation is over."

if their appetite for consumer goods is as strong as their desire for motor vehicles then benign disinflation will be history very quickly.

Toronto EDP 12:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC

Please ignore...
Found link on Telegraph.co.uk thanks.

madrid mm 12:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. added 97,000 jobs in May, according to a private report based on payroll data.

The increase followed a revised gain of 61,000 in April that was smaller than previously estimated, according to ADP Employer Services today. The report is based on data from 364,000 businesses with about 22 million workers on payrolls.

The figures reinforce other employment indicators, such as first-time claims for jobless benefits, showing the labor market remains resilient even after the economy slowed. Job growth is helping support wages, giving consumers a lift. A Labor Department report in two days is forecast to show hiring rebounded in May.

RIC fxq 12:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC 12:36 GMT

pretty second tier and not very strong correlation to NFP

Toronto EDP 12:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC

Any chance of link to that BBC2 Doc ?

Napoli DC 12:36 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
bad figures without any real movement
ADP not a market mover?

Mumbai Deepak 12:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 12:21 // I am a relatively "New" Hand, with 5 years exp in INR. I have seen forwards at a discount! It was in May 2006...Sept 2005...Nov 2004...May 2004... and so on!
My shocker reaction was on such a quick fall!

However, as always, wise words from you.

Any outlook for the coming month?

Dublin Flip 12:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Alimin you instincts might be right. EuroSwissy has proven a pretty cozy bedfollow for $jpy. Eur/Swiss is off 150pips her 1.6610 high on Monday last week.
EurSwissy and $JPY dailys


Be lucky

Melbourne Qindex 12:26 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT May 30, 2007
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.9757 - 1.9890. A projected resistant point is located at 2.0024. The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at [1.9823] and the lower barrier is located at 1.9573 // 1.9623. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats further and penetrates through the projected supporting level at 1.9623 - 1.9638. The center of the daily cycle is shifting down from [1.9849] to [1.9782]. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9870 // 1.9892 and the lower barrier is located at 1.9673 // 1.9695. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate within the daily directional indicator of 1.9765 - 1.9849.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.9607 - 1.9636* - 1.9651 - 1.9673 // 1.9695* - 1.9717 - 1.9724 - 1.9738 - 1.9753* - 1.9760 - [1.9782] - 1.9804 - 1.9811* - 1.9826 - 1.9841 - 1.9848 - 1.9870* // 1.9892 - 1.9914 - 1.9928* - 1.9957 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.9765* -1.9782 - "1.9817*" - [1.9823] - 1.9849

Melbourne Qindex 12:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is testing the supporting strength of 1.9685 // 1.9757*. The current expected trading ranges are 1.9565* - 1.9613 - 1.9685 // 1.9757* - 1.9829 - 1.9853 - 1.9901 -

Mumbai NS 12:21 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 12:12 GMT May 30, 2007

Hi Deepak if u r old in inr i need not say but if u r new let me add a caution that what looks shocker today becomes more shocking tomorrow i won't be surprised to see near fwds trading in discount soon take care mate gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
ADP exp at 115k
DJ macro see it 97K..

Lahore FM 12:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
97 k.

St. Annaland Bob 12:12 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 12:06 GMT May 30, 2007

greetings to you!...all that thing may come out not as a zoo but exactly like the unpopulated open wild...if truth has it's time then JPY is about stopping it's cheating era...happy trades!

Mumbai Deepak 12:12 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 11:49 // Hi NS...Thanks for the INR view earlier today. However, I am NOT a Day Trader and hence did not capatilise on your brilliant view!!!

I hope to have more USD-INR related talk with you here! The forwards really collapsed today. Now 1M below 1%. Shocking!

GVI john 12:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI


Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

GVI john 12:09 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

HK [email protected] 12:08 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
.

............................Stock crush in China.........................

The only positive effect, much more if it will bring all world markets down (altogether) is a wide spread of "MALE IMPOTENCY"(erectile dysfunction) among male investors, thus putting a brake on world population growth for the time being.

Sydney Alimin 12:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:33 GMT May 30, 2007

give it 3Os this time :) how do you expect this one to develop? i would like it to start from 122 but feels that a huge elephant is sitting on top of 121.80, might just about to start...

Aus Stu 12:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Nice 4hr descending triangle on Ozzy, squint hard & a litttle H & S on 1hr, face plant soon??? ADP will tell, short from .8217 about a week ago. Patience is a virtue I'm told

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
sorry..
1.961 mean 1.9761. will be touched soon !!

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:53 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
US data might again be frontrunned by players - with NFP in foucs the ADP is expected to have some impact as an early indicator (of course here many times was pointed out the ADP is not in tight correlation with NFP)..
of course it's only a speculation..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:53 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
if u want to be my boat passenger, any 2 choice : if want to buy, please do now with little stop if show 1.9725. and wait too for action at 1.9647-33 with stop 1.9625. if u want to sell gbp/usd please wait at 1.961 and sell agin at 1.9797 with all stop loss if show 1.9810 (bid) for tgt 1.9647-33.

Helsinki iw 11:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
The looming correction of the Shanghai stock market will be a non-event as far as developed markets are concerned, bar a few days of excess volatility. Chinese stocks are trading on PE:s of 50-60 while western large caps are in the range of 12-16, and thus by no means expensive. No contagion expected.

Much more important is the fact that 2007 will mark the first time in our lifetimes that China contributes more to global growth than the USA and most likely will do so for a very very long time. This has implications for all investment activity as the ability of Asia to decouple from US growth is here. The risk is of course that the Chinese start to consume like the westerners, then the period of benign disinflation is over.

Melbourne Qindex 11:51 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT May 30, 2007
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle): The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.3363 - 1.3447 and the mid-point reference of 1.3363 and 1.3447 is 1.3405. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.3354 - 1.3363. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.3249 // 1.3280. A projected supporting level is located at 1.3244 - 1.3249. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.3458] and the upper barrier is located at 1.3508* // 1.3521. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 1.3358.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3358 - 1.3375* - 1.3383 - 1.3396 // 1.3408* - 1.3421 - 1.3425 - 1.3433 - 1.3442* - 1.3446 - [1.3458] - 1.3471 - 1.3475* - 1.3483 - 1.3492 - 1.3496 - 1.3508* // 1.3521 - 1.3533 - 1.3542* - 1.3558 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.3405) - "1.3458" - 1.3460 - "1.3497*" - 1.3569*

Sydney Alimin 11:51 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
with the break of 1.9760 and stay under, i expect direct further losses for gbp 1.9650 is next

Melbourne Qindex 11:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3405.

Mumbai NS 11:49 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak hope u made best of the inr move today cheers gl gt

London NYAM 11:46 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USDEUR needs to break the 1.3400/10 barrier.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:46 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
there are big money here.
gbp/usd now is at 1.9733.
please buy now. chart will touch again 1.9797 and cut reverse if 1.9725 be shown for tgt 1.9647-1.9633 and cut reverse again when meet 1.9647-33 with stop if 1.9525 be shown.

lets go !!!!

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:43 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
will start some shorting here EURJPY..

St. Annaland Bob 11:33 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 11:31 GMT May 30, 2007

with one O or with OO ;)

Sydney Alimin 11:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
it's been a while since we last had big avalanche with usdjpy...tick tock tick tock

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
hello traders !!!
hope u are all fine till today.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:25 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
just looked on calendar - ADP is expected at 115K from 64 k last .. pretty number...

Gen dk 11:21 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RIC fxq 11:16 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:07 GMT

virtually all of the "house flacks" and bubblevision commentators were of the "skies the limit" variety with very few storm clouds obscuring the "silver lining"

Sydney ACC 11:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 10:26 GMT May 30, 2007
Certainly not Sgt Peppers.
On the BBC website this week I watched an amazinbg clip from a BBC2 documentary. A group of 40 seniors combined age exceeded 3,000, lead singer 90 singing "My Generation". Put a new interpretation on the song, made me feel young again rembering when I first heard it played by The Who.

London NYAM 11:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USDGBP: Correction looks done here with bounce exhibiting s/t reversal character.

London NYAM 11:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Well with the exception of Spain (that font of economic stability) all the markets are down @1%. Probably all in a holding pattern to see how jittery US will be with their neighbors 6% dump.
Cant remember analyst calls on NASDAQ at the height. Would be an interesting comparison on an overlay.

NYC beyond_destiny 10:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:23 GMT May 30, 2007

I listened to the interview of the chief economist of Goldman China, a Chinese-born lady comments on Chinese-speaking HK-based Phonix channel for China market and potential bubble last FRI. Some of key notes in my memory

'Definition of bubble may be interpreted differently from various perspectives'
'Current market is indeed climbing very fast and detail data is running into upper band of usual range'
'Market may consolidate at current level with upside bias'
'Further gain may reach uncharted/unstable terriroty and potential of high shooting star'
'6,000 or 8,000 is possibly reachable target within limited time if so and so...'
'Market movement are supported by strong fundermentals'

There is no doubt her speed itself is well-written with in-depth analysis and strong awareness of cultural communication. However, it's obvious to see her interest and bias that she tries to play off the downside risk. And she deserved her pay...

Cali mmm 10:54 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. Rgds.

Lahore FM 10:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 10:45 GMT May 30, 2007
162.20 might work for that.gtgl.

Cali mmm 10:45 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Good morning/afternoon to all. FM Lahore, do you have a short term (intraday) target for EURJPY ? Thanks for your coments.

Lahore FM 10:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:05 GMT May 30, 2007
yes agree,testing shortly.just might break.

Spotforex NY 10:26 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
ACC


implying that rock music inspires violence?

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:26 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
at the same time Daily CADJPY is at 113.65/68 - ready to challenge yesterday high..

Sydney ACC 10:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
I have just been reminded thuis week is the fortieth anniversary of the release of the Beatles Sgt Peppers etc album. I recall the album's release was delayed in Australia because the album covers destined for this country were aboard a ship trapped in the Suez Canal following the outbreak of the "Six Day War" between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
The first week in June represents the fortieth anniversary of this war. With continuing unrest in the Middle East what occurred 40 years ago may initiate further terrorist events.

London NYAM 10:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 10:09 GMT May 30, 2007// Great article. So the big boys are gearing up for the gearing down.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk //
hi there friend - I don't follow the USDCAD but watch it as it is really interesting to see the trend there...

btw -as tokyo ginko suggested yesterday we might see a nice correction here or maybe from 1.0685 (projected by Dr. Q)..
GT!

madrid mm 10:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 10:09 GMT May 30, 2007
London NYAM 09:46 GMT May 30, 2007

It reminds me this popular sentence we used as kids -
" Head I win, tail you lose ." 8+-)

I believe you will find this article interesting in some respect.

Looming Crash Prompts Most Hires for Distressed Debt Since 2002 - By Kabir Chibber and John Glover

The biggest winners from the global buyout boom are hiring distressed-debt bankers in Europe at the fastest pace in five years.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's most profitable securities firm, hired Andrew Wilkinson, the lawyer who advised creditors in the bankruptcies of Eurotunnel Plc and Parmalat Finanziaria SpA, to help lead its restructuring business in London. Click here

NYC beyond_destiny 10:14 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
sold usdyen 121.75 T/P low 120s

London NYAM 10:13 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 10:09 GMT May 30, 2007 // Well he did portray the bullish bull position. I agree, he 95% figure may mask the limited proportion of the poulation that can open an account.

NYC beyond_destiny 10:09 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:46 GMT May 30, 2007

Personally, I see Lehman or Goldman Sach is the biggest beneficiary of bubble of the market. They will suck up retail investor bleeding to d...They are more than often to tell one-side of the story to the market.

Retail investor is prohibited to short stock which virtually created one-way bet. And not very knowledgable in financial investment. That's why you see a lot of rookie-type panic selling, carry losing position, greedy TP. 95% of Chinese population earns an average of $100-$200/monthly salary and has no significant saving to speculate at all, use of such data is kinda misleading, JIMHO.

The Netherlands Purk 10:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
BTW, i am ready with orders under the 107 for the nice correction. Correctionorders are already in, believe me...

Mumbai NS 10:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM cheers! what abt eurjpy think 163.25 is supported but brk of that can cause ripple effect all around gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 10:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: going under 107
e/u: watch 13402.

London NYAM 10:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD. Pardon.

London NYAM 10:03 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY should find support around 1.9740/45

London NYAM 10:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
mm// Sorry I dont have those numbers. Perhaps Syd or Perrie?

madrid mm 09:59 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Nicholas Garganas said the bank will probably raise its inflation forecast next month and is keeping options ``open'' on interest rate increases after June.

``A number of factors are pointing to an inflation rate which is higher than expected so far this year,'' said Garganas, who also heads the Greek central bank, in an interview in Athens yesterday. ``All the options for a further increase in interest rates and the pace and size of further adjustment are open.''

madrid mm 09:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:46 GMT May 30, 2007

Thx in advance.

madrid mm 09:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:46 GMT May 30, 2007
Chinese investors still have 95 per cent of financial assets in cash."

I am curious but how much is this 95 per cent worth in money term ?

London NYAM 09:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
DS// I wouldnt overstate the point. The 1929 stock market crash did not have a large participation of the underlying domestic population. It is not a necessary part of a bubble but it seems so to us now after the tech bubble.

GENEVA DS 09:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
chinese stock market again... i do not think that everybody in china is involved in this stock market frenzy... if it comes VERY HIGH then the percentage is about 5 percent of all chinese are somewhat invested... so the other 95 percent in china do not even know , what a stock is... so normally for a complete sell off we would need a much higher involvment of the whole population... but for the moment , the best what can happen for the pessimists is a 20 percent correction from the highs... the up we go for the next decade to 20000 in the index...

London NYAM 09:46 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum//Regards and GT

NYC beyond_destiny 09:34 GMT May 30, 2007// From todays FT: Ian Scott of Lehman: "Despite the strong recent inflows into the stock market, Chinese investors still have 95 per cent of financial assets in cash."
We may be underestimating the potential for more froth, or overestinating the support. (I include myself in this bias).

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:40 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Well... looks like we're revisiting familiar territory:
-----
AZUSA 4x-ed 09:49 GMT April 12, 2007
St. Annaland Bob 09:18 GMT April 12, 2007 || I see your dilemma Bob: tinyurl.com/2hppey

Bodrum OEE 09:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:59 GMT May 30, 2007
Bodrum OEE 08:47 GMT May 30, 2007
Como Perrie 07:58 GMT May 30, 2007

--I don't know how many times I have delayed my departure because of this forum--

Perrie, my dear adversary friend (on this matter, I would say, in smiles, I hope you can detect). That post was addressed to those that I might have offended.

As I said I am proud of my involvement of currency valuation (unique one I suspect due to unconventional set of criteria used) and speak what I see (and invest there as well) without making any call to anyone to join me. On the contrary I countless times expressed the view that market could prove me wrong (timewise or altogether). As it did not hesitate to do just that timewise between mid March and now. When and if I have a stronger view due to detected changes in patterns I post accordingly and more frequently (as did in mid February onwards) in the hope to demonstrate what I follow.

Accordingly I apologize in case my words at times exceeded their aim. This statement also extends to Madrid MM.

I thank you again.

LONDON, NYAM, you are a value my friend.

Regards

NYC beyond_destiny 09:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
every one of three urban household in China took out part or all of saving to jump into stock market. Some are extremely greedy by leveraged home equity or misappropiated the purpose of loan to speculate in the market. Lacked of financial education in general population of retail investors is the key to cause the bubble. Many are just blindly buying at any price with rumors of 'any major crash will be bailed out prior to 08 Games'

Lahore FM 09:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NS,am already short since before we talked.but looking for 238.90.

AMS MAXXIM 09:28 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
.GetdetailedinformationonAPPLIEDMATERIALS(AMAT) ncludingquoteperformance,Real-TimeECN,technicalchartanalysis,Profit Factor: 8.34 Someonexplain it

Lahore FM 09:21 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 06:38 GMT May 30, 2007
Bob i was preoccupied with other positions.this one on gbpchf was smaller too.that's the reason why it got closed too soon though still in reasonable profit.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:09 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
2007-05-30- 15:05
Indexes Prev. Closing Last High Low Change%
SSE 180 9120.36 8497.41 8973.64 8424.07 -6.83
SSE 50 3050.44 2857.00 3000.94 2828.86 -6.34
SSE Composite 4334.92 4053.09 4275.24 4015.51 -6.50
SSE New Composite 3660.74 3421.69 3611.79 3389.06 -6.53
SSE Dividend 3796.16 3531.16 3770.10 3489.77 -6.98
SSE A Share 4544.48 4250.00 4483.07 4210.31 -6.48
SSE B Share 332.93 302.95 320.93 302.27 -9.01

I got this infor from the Shanghai Stock Exchange..
if anyone pls could suggest better view on that market..

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:02 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
another observation on EURCHF daily chart - 34 day EMA (1.6459) is now acting as support as the daily candle body is right above it..

another interesting thing I found out is that if one draws a trend line thru the Apr 04, 2006 -- Feb 14, 2007 tops - will now have that Trendline Resistance turned into Support as now it provides bottom at approximately 1.6434 ...

London NYAM 08:59 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:47 GMT May 30, 2007
Como Perrie 07:58 GMT May 30, 2007
Morning boys. A little early for thisfrom two regular and good posters.

EURGBP still looks to have failed to make an attack on the .6820 region. Outlook still on for a move to 6700. i Favour the GBP side in moving this one. EUR does look like its going to see just how many stops are below 1.3410 so careful around there.

PAR 08:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
European retail sales fell sharply in may to 48.4 from 54.6 in april .

Melbourne Qindex 08:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the current expected trading ranges are 1.0601* - 1.0622 - [1.0684] - 1.0746 - 1.0767*

hk ab 08:55 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
it seems that a daily multi-hundread pips dive is the only resolution for this southride. under 1.07, blackhole to 1.00

Melbourne Qindex 08:54 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.0601* - 1.0622 - [1.0684] - 1.0746

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
This cad is really surprising btw.

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:47 GMT May 30, 2007

That one I answered was on Benjamin Franklin and the Media.

Bodrum OEE 08:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:58 GMT May 30, 2007


Read my posts and tell me where is a direction call. I attempt to value qualititavively currencies. When it comes to egos I am one who in advance admit to being more wrong than anyone else. When it comes down to those who favor and are vocal about a journey to too obvious, I voice opposition. In both cases am entitled to express opinion or for that matter inquire for one from those I find credible (especially on technical issues where I am no expert by all means).

I have to go now and see no further need to discuss this issue.

Thank you.

PAR 08:42 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Fukui not willing to normalize japanese interest rates. He thinks that would be bad for world economy and for japanese car manufacturers .

madrid mm 08:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Markets will wait for the afternoon release of FOMC minutes and the latest on Federal Reserve debate over growth and inflation. 8+-)

Gen dk 08:28 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 08:24 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
soon time to make more averaging down in usdcad.... cadjpy headed for 137.00----

Sydney Alimin 08:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
we might see gbp accelerate further to downside once 1.9760 is cleared, then 1.9650 and 1.9450, stops to BE now

FOMC minutes later on, and from past events i think usd has been up on FOMC minutes days

Helsinki iw 08:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Didn't Goldman recently suggest shorting NZD/JPY? Perhaps to bail out a bum position?

The Netherlands Purk 08:23 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 07:35 GMT May 30, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 06:01 GMT May 30, 2007

I see patterns in the loonie. And in half an hour direction will tell us if we go under the 107.
Starting now.

madrid mm 08:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Interesting read into one Hedge Fund -

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Alpha hedge fund fell 3.4 percent in the first four months of this year hurt by losses in the currency markets, according to a report sent to investors last week.

The decline compares with the average hedge-fund advance of 4.9 percent, data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. show. Global Alpha dropped 12 percent since 2005, when it rose 40 percent and attracted more than $3 billion of new cash.

Click here

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:18 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS //
good morning, as I follow the EURCHF and it broke under the 1.6480 trendline I had the initial idea it's in down mode - however 4 hour charts seem to show au reversal in the making both for EURJPY & EURCHF...
would you care to elaborate a bit more, pls?

Como Perrie 08:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
By Ryan J. Foley
Associated Press
via Yahoo News
Tuesday, May 29, 2007

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070529/copper_market.html?.v=1

MADISON, Wisconsin -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has settled a long-running antitrust lawsuit filed by copper companies who claimed the bank's predecessor conspired with a Japanese trading house to manipulate the copper market in the 1990s.

A trial had been scheduled to begin Tuesday in federal court in Madison but court officials said the companies settled late Friday. The details of the settlement are confidential.

GENEVA DS 08:09 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
we are living in a world , where the first time in history a crash of historic proportions is announced officially everywhere in the internet and in newspapers and that for weeks and weeks.... (china and world stocks)... good lord....

Melbourne Qindex 08:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : In the last trading day the low and the high was 1.1274 and 1.1416 respectively.


Melbourne Qindex 12:10 GMT May 27, 2007
CAD/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : ... The market is heading towards 1.1425.

Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT May 30, 2007
CAD/CHF : The market is heading towards 1.1652

The current expected trading ranges are [1.1285] - 1.1376 - 1.1407* - 1.1468 - 1.1530 - 1.1560 - 1.1652*

GENEVA DS 08:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
excellent day today for new highs in USDJPY and reversal in EURCHF to the upside... as all are hoping and praying and seeing something like reversal... watch out... gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : The market is heading towards 1.1652

The current expected trading ranges are [1.1285] - 1.1376 - 1.1407* - 1.1468 - 1.1530 - 1.1560 - 1.1652*

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:02 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
now the Daily EURJPY & EURCHF charts look more in unison - both have bearish implications...

Como Perrie 07:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 07:39 GMT May 30, 2007

This forum was not built as a chat, but as a forex forum not meant to market calls, signals or personal egos. It could well become a source of clean and less lottery calls collaboration if the posts will be focused more on quality and less on quantity. But if you guys wanna see calls, there's plenty around you can paste here from the world of numbers. Every 5 pips become a target a stop and limit for anyone in the world of detached maths and analytics from markets reality.

gl

Como Perrie 07:52 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Am more tempted to see an additional 5 to 10 pct sell off tomorrow in China to follow today's big losses there.

Como Perrie 07:47 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
As said previous week I do find the eurusd critical zone between 1.3350 and minor at 1.34. Still It holds there. While Cad is still strong from some weeks now. Metals surged some too, while the Chinese stocks were loosing some 6 pct, in face of those media downplaying the news. I'll watch tomorrow what happens there to get a major clue of the situation of the asean stock markets. For now you can write whatever, but frankly I would not put a penny into asean stocks at current.

PAR 07:44 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Japan auto exports +2.3% on year in april .Japanese Car exports keep booming and flooding the world.

St. Annaland Bob 07:43 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai stock market going 35% down seen as healthy move by some, in money it will mean wipe of more than USD trillion...free market and capitalism may cause the Chinese regime to realize that mountains of trade surplus will not be enough to bail the Chinese people from financial disaster and riots as Western names suggest...I have no idea who cooks this thing, but social Chinese unrest and 2008 Olympics may trigger something did not seen very long time in China...anyway, there are for sure times to show out of what the Chinese regime is made...happy and safe trades!

Bodrum OEE 07:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
“If all printers were determined not to print anything till they were sure it would offend nobody, there would be very little printed”

Benjamin Franklin


I leave now, good day to you all


NYC beyond_destiny 07:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:01 GMT May 30, 2007
.... for now just watch the market, and in 3 hours we will know if the 106++ will be challenged already...

Could you specify your thoughts? TIA

USA Zeus 07:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Look for a big increase in the ADP # today. Quadratic suggests that this release # will accurately represent the NFP # on Fri (before gov't jobs).

GL GT

NYC beyond_destiny 07:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
The sharp correction of China stock market has been well anticipated...The more important issue is whether it would trigger chain of reation and further decline follow ups...It could go down 10% --20% easily within two weeks...

Geneva 07:32 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT May 30, 2007

Thanks

Gen dk 07:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 07:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Building small long GBPUSD longs. Stop below 1.9675.

Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 06:58 GMT - I will post it in an hour.

Bodrum OEE 07:10 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 06:39 GMT May 30, 2007
PA dessi
"nowadays the whole planet is watching the big crash in China coming... hopefully it will not come... for us all..."

I beg to differ. One could speak for oneself. Some did not jump in the bandwagon to man made almost unshakable profit prospect of long lasting nature, took as much as they can note of warning signs and put their scarce resources where their mouth is (and they may be wrong, yet again I concede). Good luck

USA Zeus 07:06 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
So GBP/USD and EUR/USD extended the freebie as previously discussed.

Como Perrie 07:05 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The Ministry of Public Security has warned investors to beware of a rise in illegal activities related to the booming stock markets.

The police authority said in a statement that some swindlers are inducing investors to buy fake initial offerings or shares in unlisted companies while others are peddling bogus stock investment schemes via phone calls or websites.

Some investors are using money siphoned from corporate or government funds, or cheating banks by investing in stocks with loans acquired for other purposes, said the ministry.

China's markets have risen by 60 pct since the start of the year and have drawn in huge amounts of investments from individual retail investors.

The Ministry of Finance announced earlier today that stamp duty on A and B shares would be raised to 0.3 pct from 0.1 pct, in an obvious move to deflate the market bubble.

Geneva 06:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:48 GMT May 30, 2007

Could you poste the long and medium ranges for CAD/CHF.

Many thanks for your great help.

Como Perrie 06:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
DJ Japan
Copper Smelters Face Tough TC/RC Demands From Miners

Como Perrie 06:56 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
DJ UPDATE: Analysts Downplay Rio Tinto Interest In Alcan

Syd 06:53 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Asia Forex:Yen Gains As China's Tax Spurs Unwind Of Yen Carry
The yen advanced versus other major currencies in Asia Wednesday as falls in Asian stock markets prompted players to unwind yen carry trades.

Following the Chinese government's decision overnight to raise its stamp duty on stock trades to 0.3% from 0.1%, both Chinese and Japanese stock prices fell sharply in the morning session, which in turn sparked unwinding of yen-carry trades, in which players buy high-yield assets abroad with lower-yielding yen.

"If European and U.S. stock prices fall in a chain reaction (later in the day), the yen will continue to rise against other currencies," said Osao Izuka, head of foreign-exchange trading at Sumitomo Trust & Banking.

"It's necessary to monitor global stock price moves for a while to predict how the yen moves," he added.

Tokyo traders expect that if China's stock decline spreads to other major financial markets, the Japanese currency could rise as high as Y120.00 versus the dollar, and Y161.00 against the euro in the near term.


Como Perrie 06:49 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai copper is currently little changed as a decline in global stockpiles and the risks of labor strikes in South America are supporting the contract.

Melbourne Qindex 06:43 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : Heading Towards 2.0770*


The current expected trading ranges are 2.0628 // 2.0770* - 2.0912 - 2.0959 - 2.1054 - 2.1148* - 2.1196 - [2.1338] - 2.1479 - 2.1527*

GENEVA DS 06:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
PA dessi

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia,,, here the link for all stock market.... really funny , nowadays the whole planet is watching the big crash in China coming... hopefully it will not come... for us all... We see a huge rally infront in all stockmarkets... for Forex buy aud, nzd and CAD.... sell CHF and JPY.... don t touch EUR and GBP.... good luck guys...

St. Annaland Bob 06:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM...(personal) question about trading in general, you was mostly certain that GBP/CHF will not print above 24390, were those prints the psychological reason to cause you to exit earlier than the initial /original plan?

Mumbai NS 06:37 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM and Bob MACD convergence is visible there on gbpjpy crossover will push it to 239.80 be on the lookout to short ....my one cent gl gt

Bodrum OEE 06:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
PA dessi 06:20 GMT May 30, 2007

Good morning

All quotes delayed by at least 15 minutes.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/marketindices.aspx

St. Annaland Bob 06:32 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM...tks...EUR/JPY seems to be at least good indicator for possible strong move with JPY as since 144 area it stands at overbought area, but when?

USA Zeus 06:24 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Ahhh- The USD camp grows and grows......

Lahore FM 06:24 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bob,if jpy carry unwinds then long side of gbpchf will not work.so be on watchout for that.

PA dessi 06:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Could someone direct me where i can watch realtime the Shanghai stock market? GL+GT

madrid mm 06:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Looming Crash Prompts Most Hires for Distressed Debt Since 2002

By Kabir Chibber and John Glover

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest winners from the global buyout boom are hiring distressed-debt bankers in Europe at the fastest pace in five years. Click here

Lahore FM 06:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 05:42 GMT May 30, 2007
Bob i had closed it a bit soon.think it can long from 2.4150/200. area for 2.4400.

madrid mm 06:10 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

China stocks extend losses after mid-day break, making investors a touch more nervous, with Shanghai stocks falling >7.2%, to day lows of 4,015.512 - just above the closely watched psychological 4,000 support, after the tripling of stamp duty on stocks to 0.3% from 0.1%.

Japan Industrial Output -0.1%m/m in April, versus expectation of +0.5%m/m, from -0.3% in March. April Inventories +0.5%.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says it is crucial for central banks to carefully examine the factors behind the global imbalances. Disorderly unwinding of the imbalances and accompanying capital flows may hurt global financial stability.

President George Bush will nominate former USTR Robert Zoellick as new World Bank President.

Canadian Finmin Jim Flaherty says he supports BoC warning of higher-than expected inflation and need for higher interest rates. Says he is concerned by effect of strong CAD on manufacturers.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says higher NZ interest rates and strong Kiwi are causing stress for the economy. The economy is showing signs of strain from running at full capacity but is not facing an imminent risk of a sudden correction. - Reuters.

Moody's places China's A2, HK's, Macao's ratings on review for possible upgrade.

Australia April retail sales +0.1%m/m, vs market expectation of +0.5%.

Australia Q1 construction work done +2.7%q/q vs exp of +1.0%.

NZ April new dwelling consents +0.7%m/m s-adj.

Choppy session in Asia as markets braced for possible large selloff in China stocks after tripling of stamp duty to 0.3%, with China stocks now -6.23% or -270 pts at 4,064.

USD/JPY rose to 121.75 from 121.65, EUR/JPY to 163.70 from 163.65 after the surprise -0.1% fall in Industrial Production. Large Japanese brokerages, securities houses and US investment s houses then sold EUR/JPY from highs, pushing Cross/JPY down.

Japanese custodian, agricultural banks bought during fixing, with bids at 121.20-30.

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY fell to 121.29/ 163.05 lows as China stocks opened -5.71%, pushing Cross/JPY lower as funds unwind some JPY carry trades. Cross/JPY and China stocks then did a "bungee jump", rising again as China stocks rebound from lows, before dipping again as stocks extends losses, on fears of more risk aversion, unwinding of Carry trades.

Hearing >$1-2b USD/JPY offer b4 121.90-122 triggers, capping the topside, with Japanese exporters, options sellers.

EUR supported by Asian Cbs, Sovereign bids, and kept by huge 1.34-1.37 DNT options.

EUR seen moving on back of EUR/JPY plays, with offers at 1.35 handle, stoploss above 1.3530.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.8175 lows from 0.8195, while AUD/JPY sold on weaker retail sales + China stocks fall. Hearing US houses, real money good buyers. NZD/JPY steady, GBP eye RBS/ABN M+A deal.

Nikkei -0.58% or -103pts at 17,569 on weak IP, China stock falls. 2-yr JGB yields hit 10 year high of 0.975%, on concerns over impending BoJ rate hikes, while JGBs a tad firmer, 10-yr yield -0.015% at 1.735%.

July NYMEX crude oil, +13 at $63.28, steady after the overnight $2.05 plunge on easing supply concerns in U; Nigeria strike end.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.29/121.75, EUR/USD 1.3439/1.3457, GBP/USD 1.9792/1.9833, USD/CHF 1.2241/1.2255, AUD/USD 0.8175/0.8198, NZD/USD 0.7261/0.7288.

The Netherlands Purk 06:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Loonie is only influenced by oil if the Loonie needs to be influenced by oil. MIB are playing with oil now so they leave loonie alone. Soon they need to book profits so we will see a correction to the 11045ishes.
That will happen fast without delay and can easily end in a fast bounce.... for now just watch the market, and in 3 hours we will know if the 106++ will be challenged already...

St. Annaland Bob 06:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   


think twice before drinking RED BULL

madrid mm 05:50 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi, another day, other opportuinities in the making 8+-)

“I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.” Oscar Wilde (Irish Poet, Novelist, Dramatist and Critic, 1854-1900)

Melbourne Qindex 05:48 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : In the last trading day the high and the low was 1.4622 and 1.4422 respectively.


Melbourne Qindex 09:52 GMT May 27, 2007
EUR/CAD (Monthly Cycle ) : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series a resistant level has been established at 1.4621 - 1.4647. The market is going to head for the barrier at 1.4443 - 1.4470. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.4068 - 1.4102.

Melbourne Qindex 05:40 GMT May 30, 2007
EUR/CAD : Heading Towards [1.4276]

The current expected trading ranges are [1.4276] - 1.4404 - 1.4447* - 1.4532 - 1.4617.

Melbourne Qindex 05:42 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:11 GMT May 28, 2007
S&P - Future (Monthly Cycle) : The market is working on the barrier at 1507.2 // 1540.2.


The following is still valid : -


Melbourne Qindex 05:56 GMT May 10, 2007
SP500 (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1517.4. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the normal monthly cycle upper limit at 1533.1. The next targeting point is 1548.7.


Projected Series : ... 1345.0 - 1360.7* - 1368.5 - 1380.2 // 1392.0* - 1407.7 - 1415.5 - 1423.3* - [1439.0] - 1454.7* - 1462.5 - 1470.4 - 1486.0* // 1497.8 - 1509.5 - 1517.4* - 1533.1 ..

St. Annaland Bob 05:42 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, good day to you...please enlighten about GBP/CHF...do you still holding that short and what are your plans about it?...sorry if I asked too much ;)

Melbourne Qindex 05:40 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : Heading Towards [1.4276]

The current expected trading ranges are [1.4276] - 1.4404 - 1.4447* - 1.4532 - 1.4617.

USA Zeus 05:26 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Monitoring the June SP 500. Down 5.750 here @ 1516.75. Warnings at 1514 then alarms sounding at 1507.50

Mumbai Deepak 04:55 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 04:39 // Yes, the Forwards crashing in the last 2 days was a big surprise for me! Your view has already started to work. Last Spot at 40.6625/6725.
Thanks for the view!

Sydney ACC 04:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Major equity markets across the region are down +1%. Chinese equities off 6%.

Mumbai NS 04:39 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 04:32 GMT May 30, 2007

Hi there a spike to 40.80 is possible wait for spike to short as 40.30 was a long term target which has been met and as fwds have crashed i wuld be wary of adding shorts here and wuld be very comfy selling calls on spike not here gl gt

Mumbai Deepak 04:32 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Hi NS // Do you see the USD-INR breaking below 40.00 in the coming months (June-July-Aug)?

The 3M 41.00 USDput-INRcall is at 0.59paise and 3M forward is 40.8350/8450.

CA_SF 04:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
alimin:

didnt catch what you mean... you said something about gbp/usd?

Lahore FM 04:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
many thanx NS,good to see you again.

Mumbai NS 03:57 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM it's on the corner see euryen charts also i am prefer to stay short i had posted a one liner yesterday itself. gl gt

Lahore FM 03:51 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 03:44 GMT May 30, 2007
i am very well thanx.heard that shanghai stocks did selloff heavily at open today like more than 5 percent but then retraced some of the losses.what is your feeling on a possible unwind of jpy carry on the day?

hk ab 03:45 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
RP//Do you think your north train on gold ready yet?

Lahore FM 03:45 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 03:38 GMT May 30, 2007
ya,got that thanx.

Mumbai NS 03:44 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM how r u mate doing gr8 as usual ? gl gt

Mumbai NS 03:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
FM my frd all's gr8 as u must be aware the secular trend on inr has kept us mega busy n gud opportunities. gl gt

Sydney Alimin 03:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
adding to previous post, watch it closely..there has been a systematic selling done, to suppress gbp, perhaps they know something, for me i can only see such a trail on the chart

Sydney Alimin 03:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:17 GMT May 30, 2007

true FM, thanks...i guess all we need is the last piece of the puzzle
end of month coming and i expect a volatile one to that

Lahore FM 03:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 03:14 GMT
NS,my friend,all good on your end?

Melbourne Qindex 03:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 03:14 GMT - You are welcome.

Lahore FM 03:17 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 02:58 GMT May 30, 2007
jpy has got its elephantine bottom atop gbpusd at the moment.moment of truth has arrived perhaps.if there is some real strength in there then it will get past 9830 or else gravity flattens them all.

Mumbai NS 03:14 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day what a wealth of contribution on the forum pages cheers Dr tks a trillion gl gt

Sydney Alimin 02:58 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd is very interesting, capped under so far by BB middle band on multiple hourly,4-hourly and daily chart, my bet is to the downside, print of 1.9853 would kick me out of short established yesterday at 1.9810

New york fxj 02:13 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
any traders in HK or Singapore who would be willing to talk to a major bank that is looking to enter the semi-pro trader space? For purposes of product research.


Please contact sean at FXWW.com

Melbourne Qindex 02:11 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.8143 - 0.8276. A projected supporting point is located at 0.8076. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [0.8110] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8210 // 0.8235. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8192] and the lower barrier is located at 0.8127 // 0.8140. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8156 which is the normal 3-day cycle reference lower limit. 


Daily Cycle : ... 0.8089 - 0.8106* - 0.8115 - 0.8127 // 0.8140* - 0.8153 - 0.8158 - 0.8166 - 0.8175* - 0.8179 - [0.8192] - 0.8205 - 0.8209* - 0.8218 - 0.8227 - 0.8231 - 0.8244* // 0.8257 - 0.8270 - 0.8278* - 0.8295 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8110) - "0.8192" - "0.8196*" - 0.8200 - 0.8264*

Syd 02:07 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY Weakness May Pull Other Yen Crosses Down
AUD/JPY weakness may pull other yen crosses down, says trader at European bank. AUD/JPY earlier fell to 99.19 session low on weaker-than-expected Australian retail sales data together with China stocks opening lower. Cross now back at 99.57, but adds "we see a trend in rising risk aversion" and cross may be on downward trend which could cause other crosses to fall in tandem.

Melbourne Qindex 02:01 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2242 - 1.2329. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above [1.2372] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2416. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.2225] and the upper barrier is located at 1.2277 // 1.2291. The market is going to consolidate further between 1.2225 to 1.2372.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.2119 - 1.2137* - 1.2145 - 1.2159 // 1.2172* - 1.2185 - 1.2189 - 1.2198 - 1.2207* - 1.2211 - [1.2225] - 1.2238 - 1.2242* - 1.2251 - 1.2260 - 1.2264 - 1.2277* // 1.2291 - 1.2304 - 1.2313* - 1.2330 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : "1.2225" - "1.2232*" - 1.2288* - 1.2290 - (1.2372)

Syd 01:38 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Australian Apr Department Store Sales -3.4% Vs Mar

Melbourne Qindex 01:35 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Crude Oil (July) : A projected resistant level is positioning at [65.29] - [65.48]. The upside targeting points are 64.06 and 64.72. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below 62.75. The downside targeting points are 61.27 and 61.43. 


Daily Cycle : ... 60.11 - 60.55* - 60.77 - 61.10 // 61.43* - 61.76 - 61.87 - 62.09 - 62.31* - 62.42 - [62.75] - 63.08 - 63.19* - 63.41 - 63.63 - 63.73 - 64.06* // 64.39 - 64.72 - 64.94* - 65.38 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : "62.75" - "62.99*" - 64.61 - (65.02) - 65.81*

Syd 01:31 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Australian Apr Retail Sales +0.1% Vs +0.5% Consensus

Syd 01:29 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai Composite Index Opens Down 5.7% At 4087.41

Shanghai B-Share Index Opens Down 9.1% At 302.61

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle): The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.3363 - 1.3447 and the mid-point reference of 1.3363 and 1.3447 is 1.3405. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.3354 - 1.3363. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.3249 // 1.3280. A projected supporting level is located at 1.3244 - 1.3249. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.3458] and the upper barrier is located at 1.3508* // 1.3521. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 1.3358.


Daily Cycle : ... 1.3358 - 1.3375* - 1.3383 - 1.3396 // 1.3408* - 1.3421 - 1.3425 - 1.3433 - 1.3442* - 1.3446 - [1.3458] - 1.3471 - 1.3475* - 1.3483 - 1.3492 - 1.3496 - 1.3508* // 1.3521 - 1.3533 - 1.3542* - 1.3558 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.3405) - "1.3458" - 1.3460 - "1.3497*" - 1.3569*

Bodrum OEE 00:44 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 00:41 GMT May 30, 2007

..One must do however, what must be done..


I leave now wishing all of you well

Bodrum OEE 00:41 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 00:34 GMT May 30, 2007

that came a bit late-decisively.. A vast balloon to bust

Melbourne Qindex 00:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle lower barrier is positioning at 120.80 // 121.45. A projected resistant point is located at 123.19. Other barriers are located at 122.10, 122.32 and 122.76. The center of the daily cycle is found at [121.91] and the normal lower limit is defined at 121.22 // 121.35. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 120.80.


Daily Cycle : ... 120.80 - 120.90* - 121.08 - 121.22 // 121.35* - 121.49 - 121.54 - 121.63 - 121.72* - 121.77 - [121.91] - 122.04 - 122.09* - 122.18 - 122.27 - 122.32 - 122.46* // 122.60 - 122.73 - 122.83* - 123.01 ...

Daily Directional Indicator :  119.90* - "120.44*" - "121.91" - 122.00 - (124.06)

Bodrum OEE 00:34 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 00:30 GMT May 30, 2007


and credibility

Bodrum OEE 00:30 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan's Toshihiko Fukui says it is critical for central banks to examine factors behind global imbalances and its accompanying capital flows may hurt financial stability Dow Jones Newswires

..words of wisdom..

Syd 00:26 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Fukui:Big Intl Capital Flows Could Affect Other Nations

Bodrum OEE 00:22 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

I also think 241.80 + and its extension higher , as I have posted earlier, could end a GBP/JPY bull market of 22 and 12 years respectively (having difficulties due to a bug in institution's charts therefore am not certain about the latter) Thank you again

Lahore FM 00:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
let us see what we get out of drop below 121.50 this once.

Melbourne Qindex 00:20 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that it has a tendency to trade between 1.0698 - 1.0852 and the mid-point reference of 1.0698 and 1.0852 is 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, "1.0730" - "1.0732*" - 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824 and 1.0775 is a projected resistant point. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0755. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. The center of the daily cycle is shifting down from [1.0824] to [1.0730]. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.0784 // 1.0798 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.0661 // 1.0675. Downside targeting points are 1.0638 and 1.0675. 


Daily Cycle : ... 1.0620 - 1.0638* - 1.0647 - 1.0661 // 1.0675* - 1.0688 - 1.0693 - 1.0702 - 1.0711* - 1.0716 - [1.0730] - 1.0743 - 1.0748* - 1.0757 - 1.0766 - 1.0771 - 1.0784* // 1.0798 - 1.0812 - 1.0821* - 1.0839 ...

Directional Indicator : "1.0730" - "1.0732*" - 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824

Lahore FM 00:15 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
From GVI

GVI Jay 23:54 GMT May 29, 2007
*JAPAN JUNE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT SEEN UP 1.4 PCT FROM MAY

*JAPAN MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT SEEN UP 1.8 PCT FROM APRIL

*JAPAN APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DOWN 0.1 PCT FROM MARCH (CONSENSUS WAS +0.5%)

Bodrum OEE 00:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
London


NYAM thank you. It was the answer I was looking for. The short term GBPJPY status to be specific. I see that (in case by -a b c- you mean shorter term trends in a large one) we are looking at it quite similarly. I also think 244.5 could be the reach of the last leg in the case of an upwards move.

In any event the price will also be determined at the fundamental level.

I appreciate your kind effort and response. Best wishes

Syd 00:04 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
Renewed rise in NZ building consents in April could temper view that residential building activity will fall in 1Q07, 1H07, says UBS senior economist Robin Clements; still, notes monthly uptick of +0.7% vs March's revised 1.9% fall marginal, with low level of net inward migration so far this year suggesting rising trend "unlikely to be sustained." At best, data indicate "fairly static" level of construction sector activity, which unlikely to contribute to real GDP growth, won't be a factor in sustaining recent resurgence in domestic demand growth.

Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT May 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.9757 - 1.9890. A projected resistant point is located at 2.0024. The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at [1.9823] and the lower barrier is located at 1.9573 // 1.9623. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats further and penetrates through the projected supporting level at 1.9623 - 1.9638. The center of the daily cycle is shifting down from [1.9849] to [1.9782]. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9870 // 1.9892 and the lower barrier is located at 1.9673 // 1.9695. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate within the daily directional indicator of 1.9765 - 1.9849.

Daily Cycle : ... 1.9607 - 1.9636* - 1.9651 - 1.9673 // 1.9695* - 1.9717 - 1.9724 - 1.9738 - 1.9753* - 1.9760 - [1.9782] - 1.9804 - 1.9811* - 1.9826 - 1.9841 - 1.9848 - 1.9870* // 1.9892 - 1.9914 - 1.9928* - 1.9957 ...

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.9765* -1.9782 - "1.9817*" - [1.9823] - 1.9849

 




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