Syd 23:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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USD Could Gain If Global Equities Correct
While some expecting USD U-turn, analysts say a big correction in global equities could keep USD on its unlikely ascent. Lack of fallout from latest tumble in China shares suggests "perhaps investors are learning that...what happens in Shanghai stays in Shanghai," says Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler, the China scare shows risk of a global slide looms large. Bank of New York's Michael Woolfolk says USD "would benefit from a possible temporary correction in global equity markets, due to its safe-haven status"; but censored Markets' Ashraf Laidi says USD response depends on root cause of an equities slump; if cause home-grown - such as surprisingly weak U.S. data - USD may follow stocks down.
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:28 GMT May 31, 2007
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2321 GMT [Dow Jones] Dow Jones technical analysis indicates EUR/JPY to consolidate with bearish bias; daily chart negative with MACD, stochastic bearish. Support at 163.34 (hourly chart), breach of which would target 162.94 (Wednesday low), then 162.31 (uptrend support line from April 19 low of 159.57). Resistance at 163.97 (yesterday's high), then 164.33 (Tuesday and all-time high), breach of which would tilt bias toward positive. Last at 163.76.
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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AUDUSD and NZDUSD on 4 hour chart are vertical - don't they call for a little rest to recoup?
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:39 GMT May 31, 2007
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EURJPY and AUDJPY are doing some work on the upside but very short term they might correct a bit, no?
Gen dk 22:32 GMT May 31, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:05 GMT May 31, 2007
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GENEVA DS 21:29 GMT May 31, 2007
looks to me like a trend.... ////
while most are watching the micro picture oh hourly to daily time frame - - it is always precious to have somebody remind of the larger picture!!
Syd 21:50 GMT May 31, 2007
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GENEVA DS not if your one of them!!
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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LKWD JJ //
man - sorry can you pls explain in a bit more words.. my English is not that good..
- - what have you learned about MACD - I use it a lot and really feel interested to know you experience with it!!
GENEVA DS 21:45 GMT May 31, 2007
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SYD
1 Million is very few out of 7 Billion... news media always speak from the small masses.... hahaha...
Syd 21:43 GMT May 31, 2007
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A million debtors face court action
Credit card companies have been increasingly willing to lend large amounts to customers, leading to a £1.3 trillion "debt mountain".LINK
LKWD JJ 21:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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sofia kaprikorn i've learnt over the last couple weeks(high tuition) that macd signals occur a few time frames before actual turn of mkt, whether its a crossover or a divergence. although daily usdjpy has shown cross selling it off that alone
will eat you up mentally and financialy. the same was true with cable near 2.01. if you go back and look at charts.
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:38 GMT May 31, 2007
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LKWD JJ 21:27 //
tnx for that notice JJ - I really have missed that commentary...
but Daily chart speaks loud enough - if you connect the first 2 tops (29.01 -- 12.02) you get a slightly descending Resistance trendline - it was broken and now is acting as Support - - just look that we have 4 days of settlements above 121.40/50 and todays Low is right on the line..
-- this zoomed picture calls for a Bullish move above 122
GENEVA DS 21:29 GMT May 31, 2007
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looks to me like a trend.... USDJPY... AUDUSD... NZDUSD...USDCAD... most are looking , why it should turn around... CHINESE Stock market and all the other negative things in this world.... personally I do believe, that we are in REAL FX Trends like we did not have for 2 decades now... the world is not so bad... NO CRASH in CHINA.. and NO FINISHING with Carry trends... minimum 3 to 5 years more to come... My expected levels (I would oviously change my thinking as well, if....) CHINA Stocks 20 000... USDJPY 160.00... AUDUSD 1.10.... NZDUSD 1.0000.. USDCAD 0.8500.... all the best and most probably most will not like what I wrote, because they want more details.... gl gt
LKWD JJ 21:27 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 21:12 GMT May 31, 2007
a retest of the breakout area is normal so not to be discuraged if your long $Y. if youre short careful as 122.17 has started to pull this thing . also BC has said many times not to short when 20ma is on the rise.
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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now the USDJPY begins more to look like Rising Wedge.. so it's very important whether it will break Up or Down...
however the Break above 121.80 was a fake out so maybe the bearish scenario here might work..
but who knows with this pair - everything is possible..
GVI john 20:58 GMT May 31, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
Mtl JP 20:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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Scarborough TG 20:41 / linear thinking carries inordinate risk imo; tend to agree with Zeus that "everything is cyclical"
Scarborough TG 20:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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Lonnie heading much higher, parity or better. Its been moving up about a cent every week for the past twelve weeks, so it should hit parity in 6.5 weeks. Everybody all aboard the Lonnie express.
Rivonia PipPirate 20:17 GMT May 31, 2007
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Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT May 31, 2007
Hmmm...2003...PIPIRATE..I can't remeber if that was a winner or loser!!! LOL
neither LOL, which is where it differs from the "sour cream" trade.
Rwanda Big Bwanah 15:54 Hello, it's me, i'm back. How could I forget the Rwandan with a soul full of hope?
Mr Purk, where did you put the $/cad chart I sent you last year? LOL
LKWD JJ 19:37 GMT May 31, 2007
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its been holding today. thank you
Lahore FM 19:30 GMT May 31, 2007
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lkwd jj 16:47 GMT May 31, 2007
yes 240.60 is key to the pairs.
The Netherlands Purk 19:10 GMT May 31, 2007
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Excuse me: swissy can read above 122...
The Netherlands Purk 19:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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Loonie: no change, predictable, people see it short but dont dare because they fear the correction.. dont worry, correction will come when collective mind thinks that it will short some more. Possible target is between 10856 and 10945. Possible correction take off is 10568 or 10668....
Swissy: still above 12254, so e/u can cruise between 13512+20 =stop and 13402.
Bugger: 16318 seen every day for a while now, so is 16370, nice levels up and down.
USA BAY 18:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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MONACO OIL MAN,
Your view on nzd/usd please. tia
Monaco Oil man 18:48 GMT May 31, 2007
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Cali :
1.9928--2.0100
St. Annaland Bob 18:44 GMT May 31, 2007
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GEP, your expectations means that EURUSD will get 5th red weekly close...currently, it shows that with all that four red weekly closings it did bit more than 250pips in range (less than 2%)...my two cents tell USD bears has their foot on the gas pedal and they control the action...I cannot say it will not breal to a close below 13400, but it looks the USD bulls are actually USD bears...top trades
USA BAY 18:38 GMT May 31, 2007
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DALLAS GEP,
I think kiwi is a short too but wih NFP TOM, will look for a entry point to sell kiwi. thanks
Dallas GEP 18:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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Bay I originally had a stop at 7350 but I removed it I still think we get some dollar buying today or tom so I am still in at 7302. I expect both a break of 122.00 usd/jpy and a break of 1.3400 on eur/usd.
madrid mm 18:14 GMT May 31, 2007
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Its that time again. Non-Farm Payrolls is back. However, PCE and ISM are also released tomorrow! It should be a crazy day!
CU TOM.
hk ab 18:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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seek, any position at hands apart from your 655 core?
London NYAM 17:38 GMT May 31, 2007
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Bay// Probably wise. Best regards Im off. GLGT
USA BAY 17:18 GMT May 31, 2007
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LONDON NYAM,
Thanks a lot for the view. I can't see a trend clearly either. Maybe will observe and stay in the sideline since it is the last trading day for the week and see what happens on tom's close. No apologies pls, thanks again for taking the time. gt/gl
hk ab 17:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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Kevin, put a limit overnight to test my luck 122.10 short.
RIC fxq 17:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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Chuckling to myself over Steinbrueck's comments on the wire downplaying the impact of EUR valuation on GER exports which are "less sensitive to currency fluctions" than other EZ companies.
In other words screw the French, Spanish, Italian, etal. exporters so long as alles is schoen in Deutschland.
London NYAM 17:06 GMT May 31, 2007
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TBH Bay Im seeing so many alternate pattern possibilities on the GBPJPY that im staying away until it does something to show a resumption or reversal of trend. So Im not going to stick my neck out on this one. Regards and apologies.
London NYAM 16:58 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA BAY 16:34 GMT May 31, 2007//Not yet finished with analysis on GBPJPY. First go in M/T we should get over 242.00. I suspect but will confirm later. The present move looks like it might need a rest though s/t.
HK Kevin 16:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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jkt-aye 16:35 GMT May 31, 2007
my magnetic level :
eurusd ... 1.3535 (1H) and 1.3390 (D)
usdjpy ... 120.45 on 1H and 4H
usdchf ... 1.2180 on 1H
could you further elaborate? you recommend long USD/JPY in another post
madrid mm 16:48 GMT May 31, 2007
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Phewwwww Easyyyyy money !!!!! 8+-) I feel richer already !
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - The Spanish government has filed claims in U.S. federal court over a shipwreck that a Florida firm found laden with colonial-era treasure, an attorney said Thursday.
If the vessel was Spanish or was removed from that country's waters, any treasure would belong to Spain, said James Goold, an attorney representing the government. Click here
Now it made me think, and yes i can think, wouldn't the countries where the gold and silver was extracted made a claim as well ??
8+-)
lkwd jj 16:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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lahore fm key for long cable and long $Y is for gbpjpy to be above 240.60. yes?
madrid mm 16:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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FWIW - Beginning June 4, 2007, CME Commodity futures and options will be available for trading on the CME virtually 24 hours a day. Trading will begin on Monday at 9:05 a.m. Central Time and remain open through Friday at 1:30 p.m. with daily hour long trading halts at 4:00 p.m.
lkwd jj 16:36 GMT May 31, 2007
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as its end of month range trading should be the course for the rest of the day,but with fx ....you never know. its always the "x" factor that is effed.
jkt-aye 16:35 GMT May 31, 2007
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my magnetic level :
eurusd ... 1.3535 (1H) and 1.3390 (D)
usdjpy ... 120.45 on 1H and 4H
usdchf ... 1.2180 on 1H
USA BAY 16:34 GMT May 31, 2007
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LONDON NYAM,
Could you please comment on gbp/jpy and eur/aud. tia
London NYAM 16:31 GMT May 31, 2007
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If EURUSD can stay beneath 1.3475 for the next 12 to 16 hours we should see arapid acceleration under 1.3400. IMHO
USA BAY 16:28 GMT May 31, 2007
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DALLAS GEP,
What did you do with your nzd/usd short? Do you see kiwi rising further. tia
Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT May 31, 2007
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Hmmm...2003...PIPIRATE..I can't remeber if that was a winner or loser!!! LOL
London NYAM 16:16 GMT May 31, 2007
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Short also on the straight EURUSD 1.3450.
London NYAM 16:14 GMT May 31, 2007
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Napoli DC 15:50 GMT May 31, 2007//
Wow thx.
FWIW reentered short on EURGBP .6799
Knocked ou on a 5 leg overlapping corrective (may turn out to be a leading diaginal but im still interested in a deeper correction)
St. Annaland Bob 16:14 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sydney Alimin 16:07 GMT May 31, 2007
hi!...going the safest possible manner when JPY involved, don't like my food hot as I prefer it just warm...cable: I see on my screen 19650-19725/30-19825/30-19895/00...best trades to you gentleman.
Halifax CB 16:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT May 31, 2007
Re. $/JPY and momentum past 122 - if eur/jpy is any indication (at 164 the other day), stops could be minor, selling heavy - outlandish conspiracy theory #177: though we don't hear much about them these days, Japanese importers/exporters always seemed pretty canny. I would guess that exporters have been holding on to $'s & euros till the trend wore itself out, and will then jump back in if it drops a yen or two; while importers will start waiting to buy $ and euros until the next bottom, maybe 115'ish?... China, of course, is the elephant in the kitchen.....Anyway, except for quick ones, I'm out till the direction is clearer....
jkt-aye 16:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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100 pct agree
Sydney Alimin 16:07 GMT May 31, 2007
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St. Annaland Bob 16:02 GMT May 31, 2007
Bob, got a trading plan? i think under 121.47 this time i am in for execution of 3Os, good trades and good luck
St. Annaland Bob 16:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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guys, let's keep the kindergarten approach away...there is no need to make party out of bad trade of any fellow trader...we all sit in the same boat and better we will support and defend each other to ensure we all reach destination in and with peace...happy trades!
Sydney Alimin 15:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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as planned, entered short gbpusd 1.9808, SAR 1.9835, looking to test low or else go higher
Cali mmm 15:55 GMT May 31, 2007
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Monaco Oilman, if you are around, do you have a short term target (today) for gbpusd under current price scenario?
TKS
Rwanda Big Bwanah 15:54 GMT May 31, 2007
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Rivonia PipPirate 15:47 GMT May 31, 2007
...You are back..i see you have recovered from the 2005 "service "...hope you learned to keep that soap on a rope around your neck...
Napoli DC 15:50 GMT May 31, 2007
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London NYAM 14:18 GMT May 31, 2007
a diamond cutter couldn't do better
Rivonia PipPirate 15:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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Ah yes, we all remember Dallas GEPs roller-coaster 119.50 $/Y trade from abt 2003, which he named his "Dr S trade", the ZEUS $/CAD trade shall be remembered as the "SOUR-CREAM" trade. LOL.
hk ab 15:34 GMT May 31, 2007
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Zeus, do you have the ADR number?
Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT May 31, 2007
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Well imo 122.00 on usd/jpy is destined to be broken. Bigger question is tho is when those stops are eaten, how much momentum will usd/jpy have past 122.00 mark. Regardless, buy on dips is still in effect for jpy pairs including gbp/jpy.
USA Zeus 15:27 GMT May 31, 2007
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San Juan Lil 15:22 GMT May 31, 2007
Don't understand why people lose/make any more/less in a swing pattern vs trend. Seems that the odds remain the same but the conditions are different. As for the USD/CAD trade- it was a loser. That is nothing to recover from as most of my trades are winners.
GT!
San Juan Lil 15:22 GMT May 31, 2007
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I sure am glad you are having fun Zeus. Unfortunately, a lot of people lose money on days like this (no need to be cruel). Hope you are able to regain everything you lost in you infamous CAD trade last month!
USA Zeus 15:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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Ahh yes that tempest the weatherman warned of is arriving- great swing trading!
USA Zeus 15:08 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 15:07 GMT May 31, 2007
Sorry- 14.80 is up 6.20
USA Zeus 15:07 GMT May 31, 2007
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Can chart and trade liquid GOOG options like an equity on steroids! The June 500 calls have already traded 10014 contracts. Now at 14.80 up 6.06 for the day.
melbourne DC 15:04 GMT May 31, 2007
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One last post :))
USDCAD – Sentiment Index Calls for More USD/CAD Losses. Is
Parity Possible?
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at
4.89 as nearly 83% of traders is long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.56
as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.1%
higher than yesterday and 6.2% stronger since last week. Short positions
are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 34.4% stronger since last week. Open
interest is 5.8% stronger than yesterday and 25.2% above its monthly
average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
jkt-aye 15:03 GMT May 31, 2007
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usjy still try its north journey from a rising +DI on 4H after break 1H down TL at 121.68 but adx not support it atm. plan to BOD with sl 121.50 just to catch the momentum. hope it works.
USA Zeus 15:01 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 19:34 GMT May 30, 2007
GOOG near (498.59) the magical 500 marker.
Now at 507.88- oh my! LOL
San Juan Lil 14:56 GMT May 31, 2007
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I see it as end/beginning of month jitters. As they say, both bulls and bears make money. Its pigs that get slaughtered. Specially during these summer months. Patience and good money management are a must. GL all
HK Kevin 14:49 GMT May 31, 2007
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Hong Kong Ahe 14:41 GMT, many thanks for your prompt response. Really a great help!
melbourne DC 14:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:29 GMT May 31, 2007
and of course , will examine closely your thesis re usdcad bearishness. i was advised the BoC surprise on tue, and the 'highlight' of US-CAN growth differential (even presently) would keep pressure on usdcad. But as someone says, the mkt doesn't move in straight line .
Mtl JP 14:45 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:09 / on occasion, time-wise expentially and physicaly crushingly long.
melbourne DC 14:43 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:29 GMT May 31, 2007
and thx for the afx article note . will take a look later.
London NYAM 14:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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Mya be a better play to look for a reveral in the EURJPY. Watching closely.
melbourne DC 14:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:29 GMT May 31, 2007
actually i thought u r spot on to caution selling on bad US news below 1.07 (for me, due to downchannel floor). but then anyone trading on news/data would have squred (or should have) given good pmi . all th best :) david.
Hong Kong Ahe 14:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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HK Kevin 14:24 GMT May 31, 2007 - Some big boys are protecting USDJPY and keeping selling JPY on all crosses. Take note of the Year End high of USDJPY is 122.20. Yen bears Speculators want to break it and target 122.50/60. But BOJ will not let it go to 125 and verbal intervention will come, as what they did it in 2006. During this year of CNY progressive appreciation, YEN has no reason to fall further against USD. Hmm.. time for Carry trade to take profit from today aggressive moves. Good trade and Good luck.
USA Zeus 14:36 GMT May 31, 2007
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Let's see if the EUR/USD quadratic magnetometer fulcrum point of 1.3277 gets smacked.
Other magnetometers-
1.2277, 1.2777, 1.3777
hk ab 14:36 GMT May 31, 2007
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zeus, imvho, your lottery game will soon turn from north side to south side on dlr/jpy. GT and GL.
Como Perrie 14:30 GMT May 31, 2007
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Personally do think was the Chinese bubble persiting that left the carry trades so high. Me just very small as cutted out most recently...too risky being over exposed for the time being to me. So far am still covered the other way with options in case...gonna see....off for today will see tomorrow asean again. bibi
watching gold 670 if touched tomorrow.
Halifax CB 14:29 GMT May 31, 2007
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melbourne DC 14:18 GMT May 31, 2007
Don't get me wrong, I think she's bang on. I shorted yesterday at 11:50 Eastern, but closed this morning. But those were on technical indicators, not news.... I was about to pull the trigger myself on another short when I saw the headline, then stopped to think about it...Just a question of timeframes.
BTW, if you get AFX, check the note on the US economy. It's one of those times that I am actually impressed by economists - came across a bit in Hallwood & MacDonald ("International Money and Finance") that pretty much describes the potential for the slowdown in the US due to falling exchange rates (ontrary to what one naturally would assume) - even though the copy I have was written 6 years ago...
hk ab 14:27 GMT May 31, 2007
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KEVIN, I am thinking exactly the SAME thing on dlr/jpy.
Sydney Alimin 14:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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London NYAM 14:17 GMT May 31, 2007
thanks NYAM, agree somewhat with ur analysis, multiple rejection on daily everytime we moved above 50 dema, maybe it is time to go down first for euro...
HK Kevin 14:24 GMT May 31, 2007
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Hong Kong Ahe 12:53 GMT, any views of USD/JPY at 121.95? Tempt to short at late NY time if trade below 122.10.
Como Perrie 14:24 GMT May 31, 2007
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we need to see how Its going to close ...this was big big stop catching move of several billions on all xxx/jpy melangers. great days ahead either ways It goes.
USA Zeus 14:24 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 25, 2007
Buying yen crosses (SELLING YEN) on dips (YEN RALLIES) continues like that slot machine with flashing lights and loud sirens shooting endless coins out after hitting a jackpot.
LOL
London NYAM 14:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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The break out up on USDJPY makes the argument for resumption of caarry tade weakening yen stronger than ever. It wil have to tackle 122.30-50 and that may be difficult short term.
Mumbai SAS 14:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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Good day All ..... anyone thinking about shorting the usd/yen at the 122.10 - 20 levels ? ... TIA
Sydney Alimin 14:21 GMT May 31, 2007
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the big elephant has moved a bit,now where would the close be for usdjpy? new monthly high it seems
melbourne DC 14:19 GMT May 31, 2007
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miss the most impt usdcad daily downchannel floor 1.0675.
Geneve 14:19 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:13 GMT May 31, 2007
Great point !
Como Perrie 14:18 GMT May 31, 2007
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From the team that forecast the end of the Soviet Union and the start
of
the housing bubble...One of our most shocking predictions yet!
A trickle of oil...
A flood of illegal immigrants...
A river of blood...
THE COMING
U.S.-MEXICO
BORDER WARS
from the daily reckoning... for those interested...else do not read It..
London NYAM 14:18 GMT May 31, 2007
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Previous relative high on EURUSD 134.39 must break to confirm the next most likely move is down,
melbourne DC 14:18 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:13 GMT May 31, 2007
$cad intraday duble bottom 1.0665 but a.0695 =1/0.9350. Lien of censored seems to favour usdcad 12 hrs ago on bloomberg.
London NYAM 14:17 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sydney Alimin 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007//
Thanks. Not too bothered actually as some things closed well earlier this week. Im looking for EURUSD (now at 1.3445)to make an extended correction below the last lows testing 1.3350 The last move bounced nicely off the .618 retrace in the last intraday high 1.3475. The previos leg down looks like a stereotypical 5 wave so odds are we continue to new near term lows. glgt
Como Perrie 14:15 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 14:13 GMT May 31, 2007
Personal convinction is neo-economics and fukuyama have distorted cycles and now reigns an chaotic global marmelade.
Halifax CB 14:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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Somethig also to note (for those that sell USD/CAD on bad news) - the weak construction numbers are as bad for Canada as for the US, as lumber exports to our southern neighbor a economically important....My own view is that $CAD is going to relax a bit from here, maybe up to 1.0720's or so but nothing worth (now) going long or short for....
USA Zeus 14:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007
From an earlier post my analysis is that the major cycle shift takes place this year.
Como Perrie 14:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007
Personally am observing more gold 715-730 than the Usd or any other currency except cad o.c.
USA Zeus 14:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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Como Perrie 14:06 GMT May 31, 2007
Thx- I see it in opposite. My reality is that all bad things come to an end.
Eventually all things merge into one and a river runs through it.
GT
Sydney Alimin 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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London NYAM 13:58 GMT May 31, 2007
sorry to hear that NYAM, such is life...
have you got anything for euro at the moment?
Halifax CB 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 13:57 GMT May 31, 2007
I love all the US bashing contra democracy babble here!
Great contra indicator. Soon the strong USD policy will remind the blind that everything is cyclical.
Problem is - just how long are those cycles?
dubai KA 14:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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U.S. construction spending surprisingly edged up 0.1 percent in April. Analysts had expected no change. More soon.
jkt-aye 14:07 GMT May 31, 2007
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Oilman 10:49 ... many thanks. gt gl
Gecko 11:02 ... welcome back :) hope everything fine with you.
melbourne DC 14:06 GMT May 31, 2007
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backward / forward data may spur talk of economy bottoming. range mkt?
Como Perrie 14:06 GMT May 31, 2007
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Zeus
I do admire your faith.
So far once they said Its a free speech-thinking society. But all good things have and end in reality. Just hope in the 30-50 years from now.
madrid mm 14:06 GMT May 31, 2007
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Halifax CB 14:00 GMT May 31, 2007
Kampo & PAR, of course, excluded :)
LOL
dubai KA 14:03 GMT May 31, 2007
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Bad day
Halifax CB 14:00 GMT May 31, 2007
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madrid mm 12:54 GMT May 31, 2007
Right now, I have both the eur/jpy and usd/jpy knocking up against some pretty significant limits - esp. 164 in eur/jpy, but also around 121.85 in usd/jpy. In eur/jpy it's been pretty much a month of flat-lining, in usd/jpy about 2 weeks, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it start falling as specs start putting mid term money into something more profitable...Kampo & PAR, of course, excluded :)
London NYAM 13:58 GMT May 31, 2007
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I scored a triple! S/L that is. Stopped out at cost GBPUSD (19760) Stopped out of EURGBP -12p And stopped earlier this AM with a nasty -140 pips.
USA Zeus 13:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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I love all the US bashing contra democracy babble here!
Great contra indicator. Soon the strong USD policy will remind the blind that everything is cyclical.
Mtl JP 13:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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potential data risk at top of the hour:
US - April Construction Spending: no chg vs 0.2% last
Sydney Alimin 13:55 GMT May 31, 2007
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is this the moment of truth for usdjpy? if whoever sitting on top of 121.80 might just move his a$$ a bit, then ....
madrid mm 13:53 GMT May 31, 2007
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May 31 (Bloomberg) -- A measure of U.S. business activity jumped more than forecast in May, signaling expansion for the third consecutive month and suggesting the economy is accelerating after bottoming in the first quarter.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today its business barometer rose to 61.7 in May from 52.9 the prior month. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion,
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:52 GMT May 31, 2007
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Chicago PMI 61.7 fm Apr 52.9 ag forecasts 54.0
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:51 GMT May 31, 2007
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Chicago PMI 61.7
Dublin Flip 13:50 GMT May 31, 2007
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KA sorry
Dublin Flip 13:50 GMT May 31, 2007
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KR I think the spinmeisters who are buying equities no matter what the weather tell us....
Bad Data is a sign of where we have been,
Good data is a sign of where we are going
-LOL
dubai KA 13:49 GMT May 31, 2007
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why is US$ getting stronger all of a sudden in the last 5 minutes
dubai KA 13:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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US had a bad GDP report but still $ is not falling
what is the reason ?
hk ab 13:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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anyone knows what trigger the vigorous move on metals today?
HK Kevin 13:08 GMT May 31, 2007
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The Aussie bull dream has been burst with rate trading above 8270.
Oilman, great job, my short AUD trading plan hasn't been executed since AUD/JPY recorded a new high.
Short EUR/JPY positions also liquidated at 163.28 and 163.62. Now watching the level of 163.85.
Como Perrie 13:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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san diego bobl 12:46 GMT May 31, 2007
I took some "illigal" space onto the political forum for posting a longer analysis from the NYTimes about the clueless politicians and the irrational species, for which I do not have any link sry.
But agree 200 pct onto. as explains the Washington clueless society.
Monaco Oil man 13:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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This still valid btw (for all targets):
Monaco Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007
Wouldn't be surprised to see
170 EURJPY
CADJPY 115
122 $/Y
1.37 E$
1.06 $CAD
Next following weeks gl..
madrid mm 12:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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email please read post
slv sam 12:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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re storm..
euro...storming up
yen...storming up
usd...free fall
of course aimho!GT
madrid mm 12:55 GMT May 31, 2007
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...previous email.. But i don t know which way it will pop! snif ! snif !
lol
PAR where are you please ? 8+-)
madrid mm 12:54 GMT May 31, 2007
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usd/yen bollinger band are getting tighter and tighter on the 1hour..... Prelude to a storm IMHO
Hong Kong Ahe 12:53 GMT May 31, 2007
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What happened to USDJPY? Not moving at all.
Monaco Oil man 12:49 GMT May 31, 2007
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Stops to entries on the AUD$ (8200), it shouldn't drop back from here...(If the break 8270 is valid.)..
san diego bobl 12:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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Agree Perrie... where or when does it all end??? Drives me bunkers that the majority of sheep buy these stories.
San Juan Lil 12:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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Hello everyone!
Oil Man, very happy to see you, your views much appreciated. Always crystal clear.
Tks. a lot and may we have the link to your website once again pls.?
Dallas GEP 12:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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Nope I missed it NYAM, my platform never gave it to me.
london phil 12:45 GMT May 31, 2007
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usd jpy in a nice 4 hour triangle and gettting sqeesed in the pointy bit break out immminent direction unknown
Como Perrie 12:44 GMT May 31, 2007
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U.S. Senate is attempting to legalize what Greenspan and Top US banks have long been doing in intervention terms. Why do you guys pay them, Its just more debt that went over the limits already in february. what is about 6,000 trillions now plus leveraged I guess and M3 dicosntinuation wasnt an intervention as balance and inflation stats falsifications. Those guys up there are just nuts
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:41 GMT May 31, 2007
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$CAD: 1.0496 and 1.0464 very important support if seen. GL.
Monaco Oil man 12:40 GMT May 31, 2007
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Japan obviously isn't in the "seen as rising"...Thus the moves vs JPY..
Monaco Oil man 12:38 GMT May 31, 2007
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If the mood is 50/50 on rate cut in the U.S (personally totally disagree with any kind of cut , as i still see Hyper Inflation in the future ->Rates to 7 to 9% within 2 years, bringing a continuation of the mighty pullback in housing market ) , it is no wonder the US$ does not bounce much and lacks the push to break resistances , as elsewhere there is no talk of cut , but still seen as rising (ECB , GBP, AUD,CAD).
dc CB 12:37 GMT May 31, 2007
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Statistics Canada Government of Canada
The Daily
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Canadian economic accounts
First quarter 2007 and March 2007
The economy picked up steam in the first quarter of 2007 as real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.9%, more than twice the pace of last quarter.
The Canadian economy recorded an annualized growth rate of 3.7%, up sharply from the fourth quarter of 2006 (+1.5%). The Canadian economy outpaced the US economy, according to an advance estimate published on April 27, 2007.
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:37 GMT May 31, 2007
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Think we might see 1.06 today. GL
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:36 GMT May 31, 2007
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CANADA GDP +0.9% vs +0.4% Better than +0.5% consensus.
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:35 GMT May 31, 2007
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CANADA GDP +0.9%
Mtl JP 12:29 GMT May 31, 2007
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fxq 12:21 / It is the more funnier coz at the end of the meeting Wu Yi called the talks "a complete success", principally because supposedly they had avoided "easy resort to threats and sanctions", arguably a no-no for Beijing.
--
heads up: slew of US data, one canada GDP dataset as well on the half hour.
Monaco Oil man 12:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 11:46 GMT May 31, 2007
Yes though i had the 1.9735 yesterday (as i bought in the 40's)...need a break here so i can put stops at entries.
->1.9796..
RIC fxq 12:21 GMT May 31, 2007
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Mtl JP 12:13 GMT
yeah, right ...
just posted 'cause the legislative branch is itching for a fight on the protectionist/isolationist front IMO.
dc CB 12:21 GMT May 31, 2007
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Globe and Mail Update May 30, 2007 at 4:58 PM EDT
Don Drummond, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, and Marc Lévesque, chief economics strategist, TD Securities
TD's take on the CD
London NYAM 12:20 GMT May 31, 2007
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GEP// Did you catch the EURGBP at .6810?. Good call btw.
Sydney Alimin 12:16 GMT May 31, 2007
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will try short intraday gbp if 1.98 seen, SAR 1.9835
Mtl JP 12:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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RIC fxq 11:57 / eh eh
Wu Yi leaves Washington for home
www.chinaview.cn 2007-05-25
..."WASHINGTON, May 25 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice-premier Wu Yi left here Friday for home after co-chairing with U.S. Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson a successful second meeting of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) between the two countries. ... Both sides agreed that the 2nd SED enhanced mutual understanding with much consensus and a wide variety of tangible results."...
Success.. tangible results... Looks like something might have gotten lost in translation? Nothing like good political fist-fight for volatility.
madrid mm 12:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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There will be lots of important data tomorrow but it may be the Chicago purchasers' report, which will offer a snapshot of the upcoming ISM reports, that will have the greatest chance to move the markets.
Bodrum OEE 11:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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(Dow Jones)--Financial markets have become more resilient, but that doesn't mean risks are benign, Terrence Checki, executive vice-president of the Federal Reserve's emerging markets and international affairs group, said Thursday.
A brief spell of market volatility at the end of February stemming from China that rippled across international markets didn't have a major market impact, Checki said.
"You would need a magnifying glass to see it against the backdrop of historic volatility," he added.
However, policy risks and risk appreciation assessments tilt the balance toward financial risk, he said.
"It hardly seems just to current market conditions to describe them as benign," Checki said.
The complexity of linkages in credit derivative products and structures could mean that investors, and regulators, may be unaware of problems.
"It's not at all clear today - in the event of stress - who will own the problem," Checki said.
He also referred to increased investment by industrialized countries in emerging markets with improving financial structures amid ample liquidity is akin to a "big fish swimming in a small pond."
"This could be a source of unusual price action and induce stress," Checki said.
Furthermore, investors shouldn't assume that abundant global liquidity will endure.
"Liquidity is ephemeral - it disappears at the most inconvenient of times," Checki said.
......
RIC fxq 11:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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Interesting FT article:
FT - Senate leaders are close to finalising legislation that they hope will lead to a reversal of long-standing US policy of opposing intervention in currency markets, according to people familiar with the matter. The Senate bill is to be introduced in the next month and will mandate the US Treasury to intervene in global markets if currencies become fundamentally "misaligned", people involved in the process said. The consensus in Congress in favour of currency legislation hardened after talks with China led by Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary, failed to secure big concessions on trade and foreign exchange imbalances. The bill has not been finalised but details are emerging as Democrats and Republicans seek to build a veto-proof majority. The legis-lation is an attempt by a bipartisan coalition of Senate leaders to correct what they view as tactical and strategic failures in US international economic policy over the past decade. For four years the Bush administration has opposed intervention in currency markets as part of an attempt to isolate and pressure China into embracing exchange-rate flexibility. But congressional leaders now believe that effort has failed to sway Beijing and has inhibited co-ordinated policy action through the Group of Seven industrialised nations over other weak currencies such as the yen. The US has not intervened in currency markets since 2000 and has thwarted co-ordinated action by European ministers at the G7. Analysts said the administration was likely to resist pressure to shift its stance now but would find it increasingly politically costly to rely on a strategy of persuasion with China.
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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Monaco Oil man 11:09 //
hourly chart::
GBPUSD has a double bottom around 1.9735 (so I see your technical view of risk at 37...)
also there is a trendline Support from May 23 low -- recent Bottom..
Daily chart:: we can find rising trend line from Mar 30 -- May 21... Support then can located around 1.9710..
-- however if 37 gives way - then 1.9675 low might be challenged
== I know it's a bit pointless to state the obvious but I do it in an effort thru others' comments or ctiticism to enhance my skill
hk ab 11:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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seems some big storms ahead.
London NYAM 11:19 GMT May 31, 2007
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stopped out on GBPJPY btw at 240.48
London NYAM 11:16 GMT May 31, 2007
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the cable move has a high chance of equaling its last high of 1.9898 and most likely it will test 1.9830/35 (.618 retrace)
Mumbai NS 11:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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If cbl can continue the downward momentum and breach 1.9675 then 1.9470 shuld be coming later lower lvls but yes 1.98 is pivot from now gl gt
LKWD JJ 11:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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Alaska Moon 22:29 GMT May 30, 2007
LKWD JJ 21:57 GMT May 30, 2007
---------------------------------
it came from gvi and all i tried to do was clarify what they meant. i guess the view is different from the moon .
Monaco Oil man 11:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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Break of 1.9796 points to 1.9878 then 2.0122..Quite bullish on this GBP from here...that's if i'm not stopped...
Meanwhile $CAD keeps free falling...At this rate might see my parity target within 2 month..
Euro holding 1.3420 gives chances of seeing a bounce towards 1.3585 and above , tomorrow and following week.
gt
la fxkwam1 11:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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dubai KA 10:59 GMT May 31, 2007
i bought GBP @ 1.9870, I am still holding it ,
what do you guys suggest me ? should i liquidate it
or wait untill todays data comes out
Have you ever heard of the term "Stoploss"???
The Netherlands Purk 11:00 GMT May 31, 2007
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I love the loonie for it is so predictable. Can do long in the morning/evening and start shorting at 07:00 gmt and that for weeks and weeks.
Just put s/l at little beter than b/e every time and we are great!
And if one took profit on the shorts just watch the bottom in the evening and long the b...rd.
Great!
dubai KA 10:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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i bought GBP @ 1.9870, I am still holding it ,
what do you guys suggest me ? should i liquidate it
or wait untill todays data comes out
GVI john 10:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
Monaco Oil man 10:49 GMT May 31, 2007
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AUD:
Good and solid strength from AUD, just need the 8270 resistance to break from here.
jkt-aye 19:18 GMT May 30, 2007
GBP:
I have a tech floor at 1.9736 which i am using as risk, thus my stop in the 20 area.
gl gt
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:42 GMT May 31, 2007
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GENEVA DS 10:20 //
nice update DS - tnx!
GENEVA DS 10:20 GMT May 31, 2007
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No movements expected for next few days/weeks/month in EUR/GBP/USD as they are traded in good equilibrium.... however focus will completely shift now to ASIAN currencies long AUD, NZD and INR against short JPY..... may be the once who will not trade those, can still buy heavily CAD against CHF target 1.3500... gl
London NYAM 10:08 GMT May 31, 2007
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Exactly Kap. Just have to work with r/r and reasonably small allocations and perhaps even wider stops as all the ranges are expanding sometimes in both directions.
madrid mm 10:08 GMT May 31, 2007
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"All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by
crowd psychology." -- Financier Bernard Baruch
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:00 GMT May 31, 2007
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I think GENEVA DS will support the notion of an upside break for those carry indicator pairs..
however I assume a healthy pullback is also in cards - my problem is whether we head for new highs or we correct a bit more to those levels I have and then the uptrend is resumed..
3rd scenario is - we are stuck in a range with gradually stretching and collapsing borders..
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:48 GMT May 31, 2007
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I watch also in EURJPY & EURCHF some longer term trendlines that were once Resistance and now I assume will act as Support
levels to watch on daily closing basis: 162.80 and 1.6435/40...
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:44 GMT May 31, 2007
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NYC beyond_destiny 09:31 //
I try to navigate with the use of comments by pros here - bc wrote on the other forum that E/Y wond correct unless CBs make a move... however if it goes to 160/159 it won't hurt the uptrend - but for day traders it's a good profit potential anyway... and also as J pointed on the pro side - it shows signs of a mature trend as the big figures like 164 up and 163 down don't spark any big follow through...
NYC beyond_destiny 09:31 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 09:14 GMT May 31, 2007
yeah, market is stalled here. It's obvious that some players already book the profit. And re-test of recent high is unlikely to happen by end of first week in JUNE.
as someone said it would just like flip of coin would go either side.
melbourne DC 09:30 GMT May 31, 2007
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another uk data .. third time lucky for 1.9735?
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:14 GMT May 31, 2007
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NYC beyond_destiny 08:32 //
hi - as I watch & trade the same pair I also look for a breakdown - just read a quite good tech view from FX Strategy on the Research section here..
they see a potential Bull break if 76 and 96 give way..
from pivot points I see:
R2 - 163.95
mid point - 163.78
R1 - 163.61
mid point - 163.47
Daily pivot- 163.32
mid point - 163.16
S1 - 162.99
Como Perrie 08:48 GMT May 31, 2007
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After the tubercolosis case expantion in US and brang into europe by an US turist flying Paris, Prague, Athens, Rome,Germany and back to NYC, and after reading all european media not so many turists going there this summer as statistically hoped. Plus the Medicare system in US cutting out the poors is seeing from europe as a big scare as developing viruses in poor suburs out of big US towns, as follows
bit off topic might seem but Its not
good luck
Virulent bacteria hits poor Cook County Jail tied to increase in drug-resistant illness
NYC beyond_destiny 08:32 GMT May 31, 2007
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euryen is a short @current price, T/P 161.9/1 S/L 163.7
madrid mm 08:32 GMT May 31, 2007
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As NFP is nearly over us, this is interesting
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- The slump in homebuilding, the deepest since 1990, has so far taken only a modest toll on the U.S. job market. Workers like Francisco Leon may be part of the explanation. Click here
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:31 GMT May 31, 2007
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Perrie, do you have a ccy pair in mind when referring to those HF stops?
Como Perrie 08:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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Dunno where the hedge funderers stops reside, but they are sweating for sure. The dark side of the moon is best in current modern days as a past reference, all the rest is becoming just medieval.
Bodrum OEE 08:21 GMT May 31, 2007
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Calyon Uneasy Over GBP
It is among the most overvalued currencies. In addition a prime example of flawed valuation exercise of the convention.
Syd 08:11 GMT May 31, 2007
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IMF Lipsky Warns Sharp Move On "Global Imbalances" A Threat
melbourne DC 08:07 GMT May 31, 2007
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HK REVDAX 08:02 GMT May 31, 2007
difficult to do that now without DJ guidedog. other than that , its just a coin-toss play on 121.80 holding.
HK REVDAX 08:02 GMT May 31, 2007
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Is there any interest in shorting $/JY out there for pip-raiding?
Gen dk 07:52 GMT May 31, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
melbourne DC 07:44 GMT May 31, 2007
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Syd 07:31 GMT May 31, 2007
thx . eurgbp also talk of (as usual) mth end buy.
Syd 07:31 GMT May 31, 2007
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Calyon Uneasy Over GBP; Warns Of Wobbles
Bullishness on GBP may be overdone, says Calyon. Bank notes that with the market fully priced in for one more hike and heading towards envisaging 6% rates this year "any signs of moderation will cause some wobbles". Says GBP/USD's retreat from $1.99 has taken some of the "hawkish froth" out of the currency (now $1.9743) but it still sees short-term upside for EUR/GBP, possibly testing GBP0.6860
melbourne DC 07:28 GMT May 31, 2007
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hey .. melbournians are well represented on this forum :))
good luck to you all :))
MELB fx 07:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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MELB FX 06:08 GMT May 29, 2007
Sell gbp/usd @[email protected]:48 hours
**[email protected] mainly due to expiration of timeframe..intitial target is still valid..g/t
Melbourne Qindex 07:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.8143 - 0.8276. A projected supporting point is located at 0.8076. The center of the weekly cycle is positioning at [0.8110] and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8210 // 0.8235. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [0.8235]. The lower barrier is located at 0.8150 // 0.8167 and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8304 // 0.8321.
Daily Cycle : ... 0.8098 - 0.8121* - 0.8133 - 0.8150 // 0.8167* - 0.8184 - 0.8190 - 0.8201 - 0.8212* - 0.8218 - [0.8235] - 0.8252 - 0.8258* - 0.8270 - 0.8281 - 0.8287 - 0.8304* // 0.8321 - 0.8338 - 0.8349* - 0.8372 ...
Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8110) - 0.8200 - "0.8235" - 0.8264* - "0.8268*"
melbourne DC 07:24 GMT May 31, 2007
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prefer to use gpbusd as momentum indicator when there is a usd move. too wild ; its one of the pairs that my brokers doesn't always execute my orders when mkt is moving.
Hopefully this 1.9735 will still be around to guide me when us data comes along.
melbourne DC 07:18 GMT May 31, 2007
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hmmmmm ... ...
amman 07:15 GMT May 31, 2007
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so sell gbpusd !
melbourne DC 07:12 GMT May 31, 2007
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gbpusd 1.9735 is begging to be broken.
Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT May 31, 2007
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USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The projected profile of the weekly cycle probability chart indicates that 1.0698 has a good pulling force exerting on the market. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 1.0698 with an expected magnitude of 1.0621 - 1.0775. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the directional indicator, "1.0752" - "1.0753*" - 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824 and 1.0775 is a projected resistant point. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.0755. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is positioning at 1.0669 // 1.0698 and a projected supporting point is expected at 1.0621. The center of the daily cycle is located at [1.0752]. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.0813 // 1.07829 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.0676 // 1.0691. Downside targeting points are 1.0635 and 1.0691.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.0631 - 1.0651* - 1.0661 - 1.0676 // 1.0691* - 1.0707 - 1.0712 - 1.0722 - 1.0732* - 1.0737 - [1.0752] - 1.0768 - 1.0773* - 1.0783 - 1.0793 - 1.0798 - 1.0813* // 1.0829 - 1.0844 - 1.0854* - 1.0874 ...
Directional Indicator : "1.0752" - "1.0753*" - 1.0798* - [1.0813] - 1.0824
madrid mm 06:47 GMT May 31, 2007
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Highlights
BoJ member Kiyohiko Nishmura says CPI is likely to rise more clearly in the H2 2007/08, though CPI likely to stay around 0% for the time being. BoJ needs to adjust rates (hike rates) in line with the economy and prices.
Low rates could distort fund flows and asset allocation, though no signs of worrying moves in asset prices now, but always need to be cautious.
Australian Treasury David Gruen, speaking to parliament, says the higher AUD has a stabilising affect on the economy. Australia's terms of trade were at the highest level in 50 years.
Gruen says part of the stabilising effect on the economy as a whole of dealing with a situation where one part of the economy is growing very rapidly, is the shock absorber role that the FX (AUD) plays by appreciating, and the real FX has appreciated substantially less than the terms of trade has gone up. So that's quite unusual - Reuters.
WSJ article : Fed officials appeared to have gained confidence about economic expansion but harbored "considerable uncertainty" that inflation would slow as hoped.
Overall, Fed officials agreed that core inflation remains "uncomfortably high," even though it has edged down to nearly 2%, a level that is preferred by many Fed officials.
Australia Q1 new Capex +9.1%, twice expectation of +4.0%. Q1 building capex +17.2%, plant/ machinery +6.1%.
Australia trade gap for April at AUD962m, wider than AUD800m exp, from -AUD1.628b in March.
Australia Private April sector credit at +1.2%m/m, housing credit at +0.9%m/m.
NBNZ business confidence survey shows a net 48.3% expecting the economy to deteriorate over next 12 months, sharply lower from 19.4% in previous survey, signalling RBNZ likely to refrain from hiking.
Japan May Manufacturing PMI falls to 28-month lows of 51.4 from 52.3 in April. Japan PMI output prices index rises to 51.1, its highest this year. - Reuters.
Japan net foreign bond investment -Y445.5bln in week ended May 26. Net Japan stock investment +261.3bln.
Relatively quiet market, with Singapore away for holiday.
USD/JPY traded tight range, capped by good offers, said to be >$1-2bln ahead of 121.90-122.00 options triggers, while bids still at 121.20-30, with focus on China stocks after the hike in stamp duty to 0.3% from 0.1%.
China stocks opened down and then extended losses below key 4,000/ 3,900 to lows of 3,858, falling >4%, before rebounding back to 4,000, and helping to stabilize cross/JPY after earlier selling on fears of risk aversion, carry trades unwinding.
USD/JPY dip to day lows to 121.46, before edging up as stocks recover, real money demand still at 121.20-30 supporting.
EUR/JPY under pressure, some focus on the EUR16.2bln Italian eurozone bonds and coupons due tom, June 1.
AUD/USD rallied to hit highs of 0.8243 from 0.8230 on strong capex, with AUD/JPY back above 100. AUD/NZD back up again on slump in NBNZ confidence, strong AUD comments from Treasury Gruen, after earlier sales from Swiss names.
US houses have been good AUD buyers, helped by MS-Investa AUD4.7b cash M+A. US houses good buyers of NZD/USD.
EUR/USD bids at 1.34 lows, options, sovereign interest. Asian bids. GBP still finding demand on dips at 1.97 lows.
Nikkei+248pts or 1.41% to 17,836, helped by stabilising China stocks after earlier selloff and record highs Dow/ S+P. JGBs lower on firmer stocks. 10-yr yield +0.010% at 1.745%.
July crude oil, $63.36, -0.13 in Asia ahead of US inventory data from EIA tonight.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.46/121.66, EUR/USD 1.3424/1.3435, GBP/USD 1.9749/1.9764, USD/CHF 1.2251/1.2259, AUD/USD 0.8218/0.8243, NZD/USD 0.7287/0.7315.
madrid mm 06:40 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sgp Thomas 06:29 GMT May 31, 2007
No worries. Every little help.8-)
Bodrum OEE 06:36 GMT May 31, 2007
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"One abandons ambiguity at one's peril"
Jean François Paul de Gondi, cardinal de Retz (1614 - 1679)
Sgp Thomas 06:29 GMT May 31, 2007
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madrid mm 05:59 GMT May 31, 2007
Thanks friend. i actually needed to know how the yen fixing works and helps. i came across in the help forum some material which says the yen fixing is used by importers. so wondered how could someone buy dollars at a rate which could be away from marke spot - as a fixing is always a polled rate and could be different from the spot rate. anyways thanks.
nyc The Donald 06:23 GMT May 31, 2007
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Now is your time to shine like me. Be firm, be confident and go big- buy U.S. dollars against EUR, GBP and JPY.
madrid mm 06:03 GMT May 31, 2007
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GM FX Jedi,
“I used to think I was indecisive, but now I'm not so sure” 8-+)
madrid mm 05:59 GMT May 31, 2007
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Sgp Thomas 04:26 GMT May 31, 2007
the following info could be useful -
The European Central Bank (ECB) sets currency fixings every working day in Frankfurt at 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time. The actual procedure of this fixing is done by observing the spot rates in the inter bank market, in which the ECB also participates. Traders of the ECB in various locations get together to decide on
how to set the fixing. The quantity quoted is not a bid price or an offer price the ECB or anybody else necessarily trades at, but is rather used for statistical and official means, for instance tax computation or economic research.
www.frankfurt-school.de/dms/publications-cqf/CPQF_Arbeits3/CPQF_Arbeits3.pdf -
Syd 05:45 GMT May 31, 2007
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BOJ Nishimura: Policy Not Linked To Specific Data, Events
Syd 05:33 GMT May 31, 2007
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UK debt judgments at 10-year-high
The number of County Court Judgments (CCJs) against consumer debtors has reached its highest level in almost ten years, figures show.
Nearly 250,000 CCJs were issued in England and Wales in the first three months of 2007 - up 9.5% on the same period a year ago.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6705957.stm
Wellington, N.Z. 05:05 GMT May 31, 2007
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Today’s FX Trading Forecasts :
USD/YEN & USD/CHF are expected to provide
the best trading opportunities Today.
To receive a Free Trial of my Daily FX Trading
Forecasts go to "TRL" under Forex Services
(above).
Max McKegg/TRL
Syd 04:37 GMT May 31, 2007
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NZ Confidence Weak Enough To Stop June Hike-UBS
Robin Clements of UBS says slump in May business confidence should be enough to prevent RBNZ from hiking again next week; "we were erring in this direction in the first place, based upon the deterioration in consumer confidence already detected and the suggestion that it was too early to judge the impact of the latest rate hikes." Says confidence survey suggests rate hikes in March, April and high NZD are biting. "All the more reason to wait and see, in our view."
Syd 04:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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NZD/USD Up; Braced For Fall As Confidence Slumps
NZD/USD heads toward modestly higher close, but off its session highs around 0.7310; traders braced for a possible sharp correction heading into offshore session as markets digest big slump in NZ May business confidence to its lowest level in over a year. Deutsche Bank senior dealer Sean Brown says Kiwi underpinned for now by demand out of Japan, but expects NZD to weaken over next 24-48 hours, particularly on TWI basis, as investors price in reduced chance of RBNZ rate hike next week; "The market seems to be short (kiwi) at the moment, so the pair is taking time to come off." Pegs support at 0.7250, resistance 0.7310/0.7315 overnight. NZD/USD last 0.7297
Sgp Thomas 04:26 GMT May 31, 2007
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Can anyone tell how the yen fixing works. Since yenis a fully convertible currency,why is the need to have a fixing? Can anyone transact at the fixing rate? i will be thankful if someone can give me the complete picture of how it works. thanks
Syd 03:35 GMT May 31, 2007
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Business confidence in New Zealand declined sharply to its lowest level in over a year in May - hurt by two recent rate hikes - and firms' own activity expectations also fell, a survey published Thursday showed.
A net 48% of businesses surveyed expect business conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, compared with a net 19% in April, according to the National Bank of New Zealand's Business Outlook survey.
Net confidence is defined as the number of optimists minus the number of pessimists.
In Thursday's survey, 7.8% of firms said they expected their own activity to increase - an eight month low - compared with 22.5% a month earlier.
hk ab 03:24 GMT May 31, 2007
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oilman, do you think gold still has room to 630 from here?
Sydney Alimin 02:52 GMT May 31, 2007
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morning folks, aud is very resilient...
i think it is better to have a change in plan for now, take the profit on short cable from 1.9810 at 1.9762 and see how it develops later, might get better price to sell or jump ship, see you later when london opens
Syd 02:14 GMT May 31, 2007
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China shares reverse brief early gains, now falling as government's move to triple stamp duty still rippling through market; Shanghai Composite down 2.1% at 3969.36 in light trade, under key 4000 mark, with analysts putting support at 3900, near 30-day moving average. Index initially gained to 4077.74. Still, Zhang Yuheng at CSC International Holdings says "the market is likely to rebound later after sharp drops" in recent days. Brokerages lead market fall on expectations duty rise will dent speculation, which would hit securities firms' commissions: Citic Securities (600030.SH) off 4.6% at CNY55.00, Hong Yuan Securities (000562.SZ) off 9% at CNY31.78, both in heavy trade. Shenzhen Index down 3% at 1163.88
USA DK 02:03 GMT May 31, 2007
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Lahore FM 01:48 GMT May 31, 2007
Thanks
USA Zeus 02:00 GMT May 31, 2007
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That USD/JPY 120.90- 121.10 seems to be heavily focused. Could be like the three gorges dam blowing apart if it gives way.
Syd 01:53 GMT May 31, 2007
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BOJ Nishimura:
Necessary Step To Curb Distortion Of Fund Flows
Necessary Step To Curb Big Fund Flows
Volatility In FX Markets Low
Bond,Stock,Land Prices Very High
Must Watch If Market Moves Excessively
Must Watch Investors' Risk-Taking Activity
Structural Reform May Affect Inflation Expectations
Lahore FM 01:48 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA DK 01:11 GMT May 31, 2007
if you short i'll add to mine.
Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT May 31, 2007
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USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2242 - 1.2329. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above [1.2372] which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2416. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.2244] and the upper barrier is located at 1.2286 // 1.2297. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.2329.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.2158 - 1.2172* - 1.2180 - 1.2190 // 1.2201* - 1.2212 - 1.2215 - 1.2222 - 1.2229* - 1.2233 - [1.2244] - 1.2254 - 1.2258* - 1.2265 - 1.2272 - 1.2276 - 1.2286* // 1.2297 - 1.2308 - 1.2315* - 1.2329 ...
Daily Directional Indicator : "1.2149*" - "1.2244" - 1.2288* - 1.2290 - (1.2372)
USA DK 01:11 GMT May 31, 2007
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Long gbp/jpy.... anyone else on this one?
Melbourne Qindex 01:10 GMT May 31, 2007
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GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9757. The center of the weekly cycle projected series is positioning at [1.9823] and the lower barrier is located at 1.9573 // 1.9623. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats further and penetrates through the projected supporting level at 1.9623 - 1.9638. The center of the daily cycle is shifting down from further to [1.9727]. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9814 // 1.9835 and the lower barrier is located at 1.9619 // 1.9641. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate within 1.9698 - 1.9823.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.9555 - 1.9583* - 1.9598 - 1.9619 // 1.9641* - 1.9663 - 1.9670 - 1.9684 - 1.9699* - 1.9706 - [1.9727] - 1.9749 - 1.9756* - 1.9771 - 1.9785 - 1.9792 - 1.9814* // 1.9835 - 1.9857 - 1.9871* - 1.9900 ...
Daily Directional Indicator : "1.9698*" - "1.9727" - 1.9765* - [1.9823] - 1.9849
USA Zeus 01:09 GMT May 31, 2007
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RIC fxq 01:01 GMT May 31, 2007
It could very well be a violent reaction of the tempest! LOL
RIC fxq 01:01 GMT May 31, 2007
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USA Zeus 00:42 GMT
or before taking a dump!
rotfl
Melbourne Qindex 00:57 GMT May 31, 2007
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EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The pattern of the weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.3363 - 1.3447 and the mid-point reference of 1.3363 and 1.3447 is 1.3405. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.3354 - 1.3363. The lower barrier of the weekly cycle is located at 1.3249 // 1.3280. A projected supporting level is located at 1.3244 - 1.3249. The center of the daily cycle is positioning at [1.3437]. The upper barrier is located at 1.3476* // 1.3486 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.3388 // 1.3398. The normal daily cycle lower limit is defined at 1.3358.
Daily Cycle : ... 1.3358 - 1.3371* - 1.3378 - 1.3388 // 13398* - 1.3407 - 1.3411 - 1.3417 - 1.3424* - 1.3427 - [1.3437] - 1.3447 - 1.3450* - 1.3456 - 1.3463 - 1.3466 - 1.3476* // 1.3486 - 1.3496 - 1.3502* - 1.3515 ...
Daily Directional Indicator : (1.3405) - "1.3437" - "1.3444*" - 1.3460 - 1.3569*
Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT May 31, 2007
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USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The weekly cycle lower barrier is positioning at 120.80 // 121.45. A projected resistant point is located at 123.19. Other barriers are located at 122.10, 122.32 and 122.76. The center of the daily cycle is found at [122.17] and the normal lower limit is defined at 121.52 // 121.65. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 121.14.
Daily Cycle : ... 121.14 - 121.31* - 121.39 - 121.52 // 121.65* - 121.78 - 121.82 - 121.91 - 122.00* - 122.04 - [122.17] - 122.30 - 122.34* - 122.42 - 122.51 - 122.55 - 122.68* // 122.81 - 122.94 - 123.03* - 123.20 ...
Daily Directional Indicator : 119.90* - "120.57*" - 122.00 - "122.17" - (124.06)
USA Zeus 00:42 GMT May 31, 2007
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USD/JPY squats and coils before the tempest.
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:13 GMT May 31, 2007
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0009 GMT [Dow Jones] JPY-crosses like NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY now falling on sales by short-term overseas players, but may rebound in near term on continued buying by Japanese for investment in foreign bonds, says trader at Japan bank; "Demand for overseas securities is still solid in Japan given its ultra-low interest rates." Adds, summer bonus payment in June will likely inflate demand for foreign investment further, which in turn may help boost crosses; "Even if risk-aversion grows, (crosses are) unlikely to fall much for a while."
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:11 GMT May 31, 2007
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JPY moves at last to 45 support..
Gen dk 00:08 GMT May 31, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
Syd 00:01 GMT May 31, 2007
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INTERVIEW: NZ Fin Min: Need To Consider House Invest Curbs
New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen said Wednesday that progress has been slow in finding alternatives to monetary policy for cooling the housing market, and that "ring fencing" of property investment income should be considered.
Cullen, in Melbourne for the Annual International CEO Forum, said a parliamentary committee reviewing the effectiveness of monetary policy will need to consider such an option in the context of the housing issue
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