Forex Forum Archive for 06/1/2007

London NYAM 23:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
You know its worrying when you switch on CNBC and instead of market commentary you get the Pro Am Poker tournament. Tells you something about speclations hunchback's sister...

Atlanta South 23:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
MTl jp
Ref 17:04/ Have a good point my friend. Have a great weekend & gt next week.

Melbourne Qindex 22:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 16:30 GMT June 1, 2007
there is also a gentleman who shared, I take the chance for calling HATS OFF QINDEX !!!

Melbourne Qindex 08:57 GMT May 30, 2007
USD/CAD : the current expected trading ranges are 1.0601* - 1.0622 - [1.0684] - 1.0746 - 1.0767*

=======================================


Thank you for your kind words. Have a nice weekend to you all!


Albert

Halifax CB 21:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
This time with spell check turned on...
newark 20:31 GMT June 1, 2007
If y0u take a look at the monthly values for the majors against the USD, you'll see that - with the exception ofog JPY - the dollar has been falling pretty consistently since the summer of 2001. (down about 33% against the CAD, 40% against euro, 45% against Aud, maybe 30% against GBP) while the others have remained in roughly the same ballpark w/r to each other. It's not so much a case of CAD getting stronger, it's one of inherent problems in the American economy, particularly its large debt and it's poor trade balance. As for the stock market, it's not unusual for a bit of a frenzy to precede a crash, think of 29, or Nikkei....For me, the US markets more-or-less simply reflect the fact that Americans are running out of places to put the money they borrow from abroad now that real estate is also turning it's toes up.....

Halifax CB 21:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 20:31 GMT June 1, 2007
If y0u take a look at the monly values for the majors against the USD, you'll see that - with the exception og JPY - the dollar has been falling pretty consistently since the summer of 2001. (down about 33% against the CAD, 40% against euro, 45% against Aud, maybe 30% against GBP) while the others have remained in roughly the same ballpark w/r to each other. It's not so much a case of CAD getting stronger, it's one of inherent problems in the American economy, particularly its large debt and it's poor trade balance. As for the stock market, it's not unusual for a bit of a frenzy to precede a crash, think of 29, or Nikkei....For me, the US markets more-or-less simply reflect the fact that Americans are running out of places to put the money they borrow from abroad now that real estate is also turning it's toes up.....

Monaco Oil man 21:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Closing the intra day stuff , keeping the rest..
Kept the lowest euro also stops to entry.

Good weekend.

Napoli DC 20:50 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Newark
NYSE rally began with dollar weakness. A matter of rates, perhaps?

newark 20:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
New York Stock market did well today too so I dont understand why is the USD not rallying back on the Euro. Pound and Cad? And just as a general question what actually made CAD get so strong? Why did it get so strong so quick?

Mtl JP 20:24 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 20:16 / tip: KISS by keeping your Qs limited in number as well as lenght. You might get more pertinent replies and learn faster.

re dlrcad: see my 18:58 fwiw.

The Netherlands Purk 20:17 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well Pune, i whish you no luck but believe in your own trades. Luck does not exist, believe yes..

newark 20:16 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
well for today trading will come to a close for a couple days, but just want to get a few things straight.. When can we go in and start buying a ton of usd/cad?? How low can it go?? And I sold usd/jpy at 122.10 , that is pretty high in my eyes.. And for the Eur/Usd I dont even know what to say. Next week on wednesday the ecb is expected to raise rates which should make it go up and run at 135.. What do my fellow traders think about all of this???

Gen dk 20:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Pune 20:08 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Dear thanxxxxx for ur gud comments..... and i try to be tension less and wil be planed trade....... and Wish u best of luck for next weeek..

Keswani

moscow mike 20:04 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Pune
IMVHO You will feel enjoyment when you close position. Market is full of 250 pips possibilities for good trades to recover.

GL

The Netherlands Purk 20:02 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well Pune, i am not a signal provider, and i never will. I am just here to trade the range or try to be the market...
I am trying to say that the only one who can help you is YOU.
So if you want to trade again stop the pain, and go and learn some basics, which can be learned from various tools here, or free sites.
If you want to be in pain, keep the possie and see where you might end (margin call or profit...)
Trading is all about having a plan and stick to it, also if that means that you lose. It seems to me that you did not have that plan, otherwise you would have put s/l in.

BKK Gregory 20:02 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Pune

Doesn't look good on the dailies charts. Looks to be on its way up. Might as well cut your losses. Remember, let your profits run and stop your losses...IMHO..GL...GT

Pune 19:54 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Dear (.NetherLand.)
i realy being upset .,.... i dont have any Idea wat should i have to do....... please let me know that should i have to wait for recovery...... and please Dear can u give me Buying and selling Call on my mail... i dont have any knowledge for Forex Trading..... ...... i hope u wil give me + response.....

Keswani

The Netherlands Purk 19:39 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well Pune, stop the pain.... or enjoy it....
It is all up to you. I whish that you get out of the possie with profit.

Pune 19:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Dear All members >......... I realy need ur help..... please give me Idea about NZD/Yen..... bcz i m making huge loss in it i have made short sell and my position is around 250 pips against to me...... so kinldy advise me should i further hold or have to close my position...... ????? PLease give me suggestion

The Netherlands Purk 18:59 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well loonie moved a nice bit today, giving nice opps for those who have trust in themselves...
It is great to see that only a few believe in MIB, and some of the people here think they are MIB, even better.
Indicator swissy does its best again today, and watch out for the bugger. Instantly it can skip the whole of the 164 zone, and take it to the next zone of 165...
Only 16018 will spoil this for the longers i guess.
Ah why? because the e/u has 80 pips to go up, and bugger might follow.

Mtl JP 18:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 18:11 / what it meant was that "I succumb to the father unknown Nigel JUBBs", as I was expecting 1.0610 to hold, now that the captain on the Zeusmarine called Loon abandoned ship. IF this puppy stays below 1.0650 today, chances are we see 1.0475/50 faster than Halifax CB's Kalman filter can register.

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
ohohhh, time to buy $CAD?

moscow mike 18:43 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:33 GMT June 1, 2007

who is moscow? LOL

GT, neighbor ;)

The Netherlands Purk 18:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Moscow who?

moscow mike 18:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
It looks really interesting how one can remember only the small "wrong" thing among numerous amount of good things... human psychology at work....

Personally believe that one who lost (probably) 100 pips during usdcad slide gained 1000 on other ccy's.

GT

London NYAM 18:13 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Im off have a good weekend fxers
and lets see monday FM....glgt

LKWD JJ 18:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:24 GMT June 1, 2007
Mtl JP 17:04 GMT June 1, 2007


LOL- Would love to learn what "doing a zeus" means.
Perhaps it means taking a loss among so many gains?
------------------------
it meant buying cad

London NYAM 18:03 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark. im sorry to hear that. i am susceptible to getting a beating but i know when i think in thise terms ive already dviated form the money management becuase of strong convicion out of a pattern. But no pattern is full-proof, no prediction perfect so if you do stick to the money management rule 1% of capital risked per trade you will stay in the game long enough to try those riskier 5% trades. if you wiped more than 5% then you really need to take a breath before getting back in. imho.

Sichuan LK 17:49 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 17:27 GMT

just saw this post, plz ignore my last post then, thanks for your opinion

Mtl JP 17:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 17:29 / euro heading for 1.3550. <1.3325 nixes.

newark 17:41 / Unless < 119.80, expect to see 123.

Sichuan LK 17:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 17:23 GMT

The weekly chart shows that the 0.85-0.99 range since early 2004 is broken . Technically speaking, it has the potential to reach 1.1 level, since the short-termgold correction seems finished, and the JPY is already sold in a quite low level, buying AUD/CHF is also a sorta carry trade, and relatively cheap. thoese are the reasons that why I bought it

But I am kinda concerned about what the consequcenses will be, when carry trade is intervened by Cbs, due to CHF's historical background, would it be deemed as safehaven may outperform AUD then? I am holding it as a mid-term position. any comments on it? and do you think it is possible to reach 1.1 level? good trades

newark 17:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
well as of right now i took a beating with canadian dollar today and euro didnt really leave me with anything so I decided to sell usd/jpy since it is looking pretty high.. it can not hold at 122. any ideas?

Hou DK 17:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:35 GMT June 1, 2007

Ditto.... on eur comments

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair. The whip saw effects of a mild bloody Friday have come to pass now and for the most part the key points were never taken out. Scalpers be aware of calling bottoms or predicting the future with your positions. As I said before we are in the gloomy summer ranges and it takes a lot to break through. Eur/usd pair now has a more defined bottom and with indicators in the O/S area a possible bounce can be produced but until the key resistance is completely taken out there is no guarantee that the bulls have fought off the bears correction for now. It is still sell on failed rallies until the key resistance is taken out IMHO. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. Peace and GT

newark 17:29 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
well euro didnt do so much for me today because it never went back towards 134 as of rite now but the gbp seems to be up so anyone thinkin of selling that to buy later on??

GENEVA DS 17:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

I wrote short term 10350 , we are in 72 hours at 10245... our target is 1.1200 for 3 to 5 month... but further out AUD should outperform massively... 1.35 or higher.... hope that helps...

USA Zeus 17:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 25, 2007
Buying yen crosses (SELLING YEN) on dips (YEN RALLIES) continues like that slot machine with flashing lights and loud sirens shooting endless coins out after hitting a jackpot.



LOL

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:04 GMT June 1, 2007


LOL- Would love to learn what "doing a zeus" means.
Perhaps it means taking a loss among so many gains?

USA BAY 17:24 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS,

What is your target for aud/chf please. tia

GENEVA DS 17:23 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 15:46 GMT May 29, 2007
Just bought now some AUDCHF at 10030.... as we see AUDUSD much higher and CHF sinking.... sl 9975 and 1 month target 10350.... gl gt

GENEVA DS 17:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
AUDCHF developping nicely since 48 hours.... unbelievable... gold finally took the bears by the horns as usual... next week ... outlook could be... more of the same... there seems to be still HUGE amounts of moneys out of Asia/Japan to be invested in good yields and gold.. watch out... AUDUSD 90.00 before christmas eve... have fun good weekend

LKWD JJ 17:09 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
19819 the 480 ma(1hr chart) tough to break but cracks showing for cable

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 16:45 / the right side has and still is actually the left side.

I did a "Zeus" earlier today and.. paid 27 pips for it.

LKWD JJ 17:02 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
gold is talking but are we listening? usd to fall but not against carry ccys.

LKWD JJ 16:52 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
cable looking to attack 19830 , with r2 @64

tokyo ginko 16:51 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
eur stop out. have a good weekend all.

Lahore FM 16:51 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM,looks it has taken off to a good start.

LKWD JJ 16:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
closed my $swissy shorts from 03,13 @00. still long cable and $Y , along with eurusd 1.3401. range has been good 134-135. stops @30.

Atlanta South 16:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Hats off to several on this forum who seem to always call them right. Not calling any names as they know who they are.

$/CAD has been making a nice smooth decline over the last
several weeks & just seems to keep on giving to those on the
right side of this pair. I've been shorting this pair since 1510. Will tp before close today & keep some for later. Gt
to all & a great weekend as well.

LKWD JJ 16:43 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
106 ish area was a target from tonbridge al on gvi club video. the man is a wizard!!!

LKWD JJ 16:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
the cad will bounce after the last long has been stopped out- to quote the market gurus !!!!

melbourne DC 16:37 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 16:27 GMT June 1, 2007
yesterday censored indicates 83% of their posn r long , so rabbits still around:) i see those who want 2 play usdcad already know the key points from midweek so that report not new point, just unfortunate timing.

St. Annaland Bob 16:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
have great and very peaceful weekend everybody & everyone...and for the scalpers, enjoy until the close ;)

St. Annaland Bob 16:30 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
there is also a gentleman who shared, I take the chance for calling HATS OFF QINDEX !!!

Melbourne Qindex 08:57 GMT May 30, 2007
USD/CAD : the current expected trading ranges are 1.0601* - 1.0622 - [1.0684] - 1.0746 - 1.0767*

LKWD JJ 16:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 16:11 GMT June 1, 2007
Not sure when report was released. piece of bad luck for contertrend longs in usdcad.
--------------------------------
give a few days for the sharks to let the school grow before they attack again. too much publicity and woof the rabbit has disappeared!!

Lahore 16:13 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
What is the Next Target of S&P 1. Up Side 2. Down Side Or....

melbourne DC 16:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Not sure when report was released. piece of bad luck for contertrend longs in usdcad.

1600 GMT [Dow Jones] A rise in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, combined with stronger-than-expected economic growth, will drive CAD to parity with USD by year-end, says a report from CIBC World Markets. Between red-hot commodity and energy markets and huge capital inflows associated with an avalanche of M&A deals, CAD has "plenty of octane left to take a concerted run toward parity against the greenback," the report says. With the national jobless rate plumbing 30-year lows and core inflation now bobbing above the BOC's target range, CIBC's earlier assumption the bank would intervene against a further rise in CAD with rate cuts no longer seems tenable, the report says. With the Fed seen as likely to cut rates in 4Q, CIBC now expects CAD to climb to parity with USD by year-end and remain in that range over the first half of '08. (DBC)

RIC fxq 16:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:46 GMT

about a day late on the "news" item, on the wires ysty pm.

London NYAM 16:03 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
FM// No doubt!

Still looking out for an opportunity trade short USDJPY. Id like to see similar reversal behaviour at 122.20/30. If not it may slam its way up to upper 122's.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:00 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY daily - has build a base (closed and opened just above the 20day MA)

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:58 GMT June 1, 2007
lolzzz.i will be well commisioned from my longs by then.

London NYAM 15:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks FM. ill send you a commission on the EUR trade when we mount 137.00
:)

Lahore FM 15:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:52 GMT June 1, 2007
happy trades!

dc CB 15:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Globe and Mail Update
June 1, 2007 at 11:37 AM EDT

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday any attempt to intervene with the strong dollar to save manufacturing jobs would be a “huge mistake,” Bloomberg News reported.

“The rising Canadian dollar is a reflection of the underlying strength of the Canadian economy,” Mr. Harper told the news agency in an interview.

London NYAM 15:52 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Long now EURUSD s/l below low target...
Exited EURGBP short for 16p

dc CB 15:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
CAD free to go.

BOC to stay on sidelines

London NYAM 15:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
If you take a look at the daily chart and start the wave count at the Feb 5th low at 129.12 (this assumes that the last leg down was a failed fifth wave on the retrace fom the Dec3rd highs) the 38.2 retrace is 1.3387 the low I’ve clocked is at 1.3391.
Thanx I would have missed that.
Looks good for a wave 5 attempt to new highs M/T.

Monaco Oil man 15:39 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:37 GMT June 1, 2007

Got a porter by now ;)

Mtl JP 15:37 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
attaboy...
Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007
Wouldn't be surprised to see

170 EURJPY
CADJPY 115
122 $/Y
1.37 E$
1.06 $CAD

Next following weeks

hope you get a backache at least under all that loot ! :-)

Monaco Oil man 15:37 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
3 left to go :
1.00 $CAD
170 EY.
1.37 E$.
gt

ldn pw 15:37 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:34 GMT June 1, 2007
well thanks for the answer but I won't be wasting time looking up 'men in black' theories. You will be telling me there are little green men in spaceships next - lol

Monaco Oil man 15:36 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
115 CADJPY!!!!!!!!!!!WOO.

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Qindex's CAD storm is blowing.

Lahore FM 15:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:28 GMT June 1, 2007
looks a neat dollar selloff setup in works.above 1.3444 we take a fast cab to 1.3544.cable also looks good for rise.next 2 hourly closes throw more light on the matter.

pw,the forum has quite a few posts on this anonymous men in black(mib).check archive.

London NYAM 15:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Personaly i'm eying the EURJPY cross again failure to mount 164.35 seems interesting considering the so-called 'return of the carry'

ldn pw 15:29 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:24 GMT June 1, 2007
what is mib?

melbourne DC 15:29 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin
a factor in favour of your usdcad posn ... ifr went short on 1.0640 break :)) Could end up the same with their eurusd 1.3400 break short (at least for intraday day) . but must say am really impress/apprehensive of this cad strength. Enjot your weekend . david

London NYAM 15:28 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
FM! Any views you have today?

Lahore FM 15:24 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
setup in place for cable long trade.mib all over.

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 15:20 / tip: emotional trader = vulnerable trader.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
This combination of strengthening risk appetite and reduced dollar shorts supports further gains in the carry trades that do not involve the US dollar, such as rising USDJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, NZDGBP but downside pressure on EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP. Mr. Laidi / censored

newark 15:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
yea cad already spread some death on me today.. censored them...

St. Annaland Bob 15:19 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
looks like CAD is on the run and wishing to spread death among some FX players

Napoli DC 15:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 15:01 GMT June 1, 2007
do agree, was watching it closely, but may be it's friday, it didn't seem to have the strenght to get there today, imho.
Still holding longs

newark 15:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
why did the euro rally back up so quickly?? i thought it was gonna be around 1.3400

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
btw - once again I really admire Oil man's skill - when EURUSD was below 1.34 - I would have gone short.. thus again selling the bottom - - wonder how can I learn to do this..

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
excuse me - is there such notion that Carry trades are strengthened when going into the weekend since they profit from the rollover interest?

I remember someone on the pro side said once carries are sold in the first part of the week and bought in the second ..

tokyo ginko 15:06 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
watching my stops closely

Sydney Alimin 15:02 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
it is just a mixed picture, apart from aud and cad, usd is doing pretty well against the others, expecting the same for the rest of today...

London NYAM 15:02 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
round THREE over 122.00 ding ding.

hk ab 15:01 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
DOWJhas not yet exercised its usual May fall. Many funds are still holding their positions....

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:01 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, EUR$ trendline from mid October 06 comes in at 1.3360/70.

melbourne DC 14:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like usd index 82.50/60 the line to watch.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab //
what do you mean by stox not retraced for summer, pls?

hk ab 14:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
zeus, this warning on e/j seems not joking though.
stoxx has not retraced yet for summer.....

toronto df 14:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Oilman
I fully agree with u, longed at 1.34.

USA Zeus 14:42 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:20 GMT June 1, 2007

Thx- How many times big boys said "enough" according to this forum over the last year or so?

Monaco Oil man 14:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Careful of the friday tricks....Getting shorters under 1.34 before it starts flying...At least is what it looks like , anyways sitting on my positions still..


gt

tokyo ginko 14:39 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
sold eur june 1.3417 s-l 1.3440 for month test of 1.32 levels, GT all

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM //
yes tnx!

San Juan Lil 14:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
It seems the swissy is rejecting the 200ma on the daily once again. Double top?

sg RS 14:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Good 1. missed that!

London NYAM 14:36 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Kap//EUR/GBP is the key to that divergence. Check the chart you may see that head and shoulders break i mentioned a while back.

Napoli DC 14:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
long now at 1,3395

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
to state the obvious AUDJPY, NZDJPY and GBPJPY are up and only CHFJPY and EURJPY are down at present..

usually GBPJPY is leading the moves and EURJPY following but strange divergence there now..

Como Perrie 14:23 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
EurUsd might be yet some sarkozyed downside in strange manners imo

LKWD JJ 14:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
watch highs and lows and mkt will retest and fall/rise . its a friday remember?

hk ab 14:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
zeus, take care with your lottery machine....big boyz said enough

Como Perrie 14:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
the eurchf stuff must print below 1.6450 to confirm anything southern cooking ahead of june 15 SNB 8th interest hike meeting. the guess is will It be again 1/4 or they shd go heavy with 1/2


happie w/e
bye

Monaco Oil man 14:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Took some more euro's 97..

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:14 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
it's sure aFriday mess.. I'm totally frustrated was short 163.76 but then long 164... I seem to be that little fish that is always selling the bottome and buying the top..

London NYAM 14:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
After the ISM numbers one would think a try at 122.20/30 would be attempted. Bailed other half of EURUSD for 33p

Sydney Alimin 14:07 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:53 GMT June 1, 2007

LOL, they should mate, they have no reason not to be profitable after riding such a trend after the plunge early this year

LKWD JJ 14:03 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:46 GMT June 1, 2007
LKWD JJ 13:42 GMT June 1, 2007
-----------------------
short term play inside long term picture. thanks.

London NYAM 13:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:50 GMT June 1, 2007 // i hope they left with some stop losses i place...

hong kong seek 13:50 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
short usdjpy at 12204

Sydney Alimin 13:50 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 13:32 GMT June 1, 2007

there are plenty, but they keep silent, laughing all the way to the bank and prepare their holidays now

Monaco Oil man 13:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 13:42 GMT June 1, 2007


My targets are very different on gbp than on $y , as both $y and $chf will be closed end of day or stopped...Meanwhile GBP i will hold (or be stopped) into next week and following (that's if it goes up...As my 2nd target is 2.01)

NYC beyond_destiny 13:43 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
I've drawn a rangeon swissie in Feb... 1.2/1.203---1.23/1.233 and the price is still contained in the range. It looks like this range would be locked longer than usual due to carry trade. Eurchf will follow the direction of euro, more co-related than before.

LKWD JJ 13:42 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:26 GMT June 1, 2007
Current :
are there any funnymentals to back up these trades? chf and yen up vs usd, and long cable? if $Y goes down it will put pressure on gbpjpy as we have seen lately holding down gbpusd as well. only trying to pick your brain not a fight.

London NYAM 13:42 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Joining the short USDJPY train soon but 'not yet my friend not yet.'

LKWD JJ 13:37 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 13:32 GMT June 1, 2007
is there something wrong with long $Y? cash cow !!! besides who said anybody long from these lofty levels?

The Netherlands Purk 13:36 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well the 80's in l;oonie did not hold, so it is the 44's from now or still the 10744... let us see or feel...

Mtl JP 13:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:11 / at 14:00GMT:

- May ISM manufacturing index: mrkt: 54.0 vs 54.7
- May UofM index consumer sentiment: 88.0 vs 88.7
- April Pending Home Sales: 0.5% vs -4.9%

IF the ISM comes in on the money (or higher) it should be indicative of hot industrial production. It should help keep the FED from having to cut rates anytime soon.

RIC fxq 13:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 13:32 GMT

of course there are, if not USDJPY would be in minus figures!

melbourne DC 13:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
dismissing rearview data, data points to goldilock economy? rebounding with tame inflation threat. good for stocks and carry?

GENEVA DS 13:32 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
PLEASE PAR AND KAMPO do not answer this question !!!! ANYBODY in this Forex world long USDJPY now ?...

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man //
tnx for ur view - I believe I get your point


GENEVA DS //
as you mentioned EURCHF is on its way back up..
let's see when EURJPY will break above 164 - I suppose this time it must gain some momentum..

London NYAM 13:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
FWIW Closed half short EURUSD for 25p

HK Kevin 13:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, short USD/JPY 122 and EUR/JPY 142 orders both hit earlier. Tight stops. Let's see how market develop.

Monaco Oil man 13:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Current :

$/CAD Short...Long term position (been in it for awhile, keep in it till parity..) Stops 1.1227 (Avr 1.14 , start from 1.17 and added up on way down).

GBP$ Long 1.9746.
$Y 122.01 Short
AUD 8200+72 Long; Stop entries.
$CHF 1.2294 short
GBPCAD 2.1115 Long (might have to cut that one, just a counter trend trade)..
EUR$ 1.3432 Long.

All good and looking for 100--200 pips on new positions..

gl gt

Cali mmm 13:24 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
OK Thank you Oilman. Rgds.

Monaco Oil man 13:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
CAli :
GBP$ just needs to pop 1.9803 to make another burst ->1.9830 then 1.9928...

Otherwise i will be stopped at my entries (40's).

Dallas GEP 13:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
well usd/chf indicates usd bulls making some small in roads but eur/usd is holding p pretty well being supported by eur/jpy longs. usd/jpy break so far is with minor follow thru . nzd and AUSSIE both over bought but they are holding fairly steady as well. if not already in possie , I would look for clearer direction.

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 13:12 / quick look at chart (courtesy GVI john 11:18), one can easily see 122.20 jan 29th high, wchih should be relatively minor Resistance to break.

GENEVA DS 13:19 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Even after this magic figures nothing new.... EUR GBP and USD going nowhere will remain like that for a long time to come... JPY to start accelerating against AUD NZD CAD... no stock crash for today.... carry will make a little comeback... gl

Monaco Oil man 13:19 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:06 GMT June 1, 2007


Market is definitely cross driven via yen...All the focus is there...However i think when $/Y cools up , Euro will pass (with EY bursting upside same time)..

----

Cali :

Same target as posted last night 1.992 ---2.0100

only one that i want to close before the end of day is the $chf..(or close by stop...).
gl gt

Como Perrie 13:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Funds are yet full of technology stocks bought from coupla years ago and trying to promote heavy at current. Smelly at best.

Como Perrie 13:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
10 yrs...30 yrs has become a no touch bond on earlier, just swapped around by the monetarian stability pact.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
only think that troubles me is why oil man shorts the USDJPY - I see it broke out of its Ascending Triangle formation on 4 hour charts - which is a sign of Continuation..
maybe good of 50-100 pips on the upside..
however would appreciate some more knowledgeable comments on this..

Como Perrie 13:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
As It looks into next weeks and months the FOMC is glued into a double sided macro situation, can't move rates, but if NFPs confirming a reprise of the economy at least the long term interest US rates shd rise sharply over 5 pct to 5.1/4 or so maybe.

LKWD JJ 13:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
my feeling going to nfp was this: either the economy slowed good for short usd position or stayed the same still good for usd shorts. only strong number a hurt but it only means theres no rate cut, a hike is out of the question. okod for usd shorts but not great. cable holding up well while usd gains vs jpy and chf(carrytrade fuel).

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:09 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
btw - Daily EURJPY & EURCHF all look very bullish - and as they are somewhat of indicators of carry trades we might see extending of this rally into next week

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:06 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man //
the way I see your view is that USDJPY is falling slowly (say 121.30) while the EURUSD is appreciating strongly further (appr. 1.3540) - thus creating a disposition of further rise in carry EURJPY?

madrid mm 13:05 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Good ol' friday afternnon !!!

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:03 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Wed, Jun 6, 2007
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision

Baked in the cake as they say, but still worth the thought...

hk ab 13:00 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
I think problem is e/j is very very well controlled now by them @164.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:57 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 12:48 GMT June 1, 2007
LOL a day late and a Euro short on my end. I hope you are well sir and thanks for the heads up either way looks like the market is having some trouble taking down the 3405-15 area once again. Have a great weekend. Peace and GT

Cali mmm 12:57 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, what is your short term target for gbpusd after news? TKS!

Como Perrie 12:57 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Strange mixture of rising yields, rising commodities, usd confirming mild to medium strenght at current. Stocks to watch ISM. And the classic housing surprise, very golfing friday this super friday. US 10 yrs to go for 5 yield imo soon, but short term rates might be lagging some.

Monaco Oil man 12:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Shorted 122.01 $Y..

small stops..

Now waiting time , Ozi holds well , so is CAD (particularly CADJPY , as my 115 target is already here already).

Should be fixed if stopped or not in the few next minutes.

gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 12:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : ... 1.3384 - 1.3397* - 1.3404 - 1.3415 // 1.3425* - 1.3436 - 1.3439 - 1.3446 - 1.3453* - 1.3456 - [1.3467] ...

newark 12:51 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Euro is falling.. soo looks good.. anyone have any idea how long it will stay there for??

Mtl JP 12:49 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
dlryen itching to test 122.20. IF it vaults, 122.75ish comes on targeting radar.

GVI Jay 12:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
OMIL - that barrier was said to have expired - email me if you need more info on it

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Eur/usd pair: They are sure plugging up the 3400 barrier pretty good. I have a feeling the market will take it down soon IMHO. Peace and GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
long EURJPY 163.99
seems carry is going strong into the weekend..

Sydney Alimin 12:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
still in gbpusd short 1.9808, target new low, SAR if 1.9835, all good

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
carry trades all look up..

Gen dk 12:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 12:32 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:47 GMT June 1, 2007

let's hit it Bob, it got to my mark

Melbourne Qindex 12:32 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is now testing the barrier of 1.3415 // 1.3425.

newark 12:32 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
is there a reason why gbp/usd is all over the map right now..

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Apparently many hedged long gbpusd short eurusd

St. Annaland Bob 12:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 12:23 GMT June 1, 2007

you don't wat to know about bc's stop loss, his s/l must be located at places that market will move down 10%-15% per day ;)

Hou DK 12:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:12 GMT June 1, 2007

ditto

KL KL 12:23 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc

So ....do you have any Stop Loss to your gold position....??

Melbourne Qindex 12:23 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : I have a feeling that it will trade below 1.3400 in the New York session.

London NYAM 12:22 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2432337.ece

if it interests you on block-head number 2

Hou DK 12:22 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:11 GMT June 1, 2007

I am seeing a possible medium term setup coming together in CHF. Will wait for further confirmation and begin accumulating.

Regards GLGT

London NYAM 12:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:16 GMT June 1, 2007//
Browns other boner was the Pensions issue in 1999 before the crash.

newark 12:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
yea i though it started at 8 , but i guess it starts at 930.. I feel really embarassed now.. sorry again

melbourne DC 12:16 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:12 GMT June 1, 2007
thanks for the reply. i heard the UK sales is a Brown move against the advice of the tsy; it certainly look silly now. david

newark 12:16 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
but i guess it fell right bak to its normal level right away.. sorry to be annoying but i am just trying to get the hang of it..

Como Perrie 12:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 12:12 GMT June 1, 2007

the stock exchange starts in some one hour from now

newark 12:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
so the new york stock exchange just started and soon as that happened the eur/usd started to jump up.. is this what happens normally?

shanghai bc 12:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 11:57 GMT June 1, 2007

Good evening..I have been buying anything below 655 for the last few weeks in fact..It is still a good buy on dips today..I wonder why EU folks are selling money making investment,gold..UK started it by selling at 255 and annual ritual of selling by all types of EU cbs while gold rose from 255 to 665 today..I still believe anything below 1000 is a good bargain for the next 10 years..And we may never see usd1000/Oz again in this century once we pass that mark in coming years too..Good luck..

Monaco Oil man 12:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Well Sold 1.2294 $CHF also.

Just for the day , will close even if it goes down good today (and up it gets stopped)...

Rest same as before , OZI, GBP, $/CAD..And GBP/CAD from around current levels.

GL , it's friday.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:10 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
hello - any ideas on reaction to NFP?

Mtl JP 12:09 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:53 / Beijing tries new tack on excesses (FT)

The Chinese "authorities" are trying desperately to maintain the illusion that they are in control. BUT IF the 7% proportion of China wealth is close to true, then even a 50% slide in stocks would be insignificant in the grand scheme.

Como Perrie 12:06 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
The very short term data scalpers might concentrate mostly onto the NFPs and previous eventual revions to the 88K.

The whole for now seems mildly Usd positive as there to be sort of inflationary expectations embedded into the series we are going to see bumping some this early US morning.

melbourne DC 11:57 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:53 GMT June 1, 2007
good evening sir. good to hear your views as always.
Would you be buying gold at current lvl (665) ; ecb just say they won;t be selling any more this yr. thanks. david

melbourne DC 11:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:48 GMT June 1, 2007
that's interesting. hmmm ....
but on a number of occasions i was using comstock via fxtrek as censored feed was down ... i find their feed weirdly wild n erractic. anyway barrier take out is not main event tonite:))

shanghai bc 11:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 10:15 GMT June 1, 2007

I trade against the views of other banks or funds in most cases..So I respect their views only to the extent of being on the opposite side of me creating the market..Any market anywhere during any period is in a serious bubble when the high school kids and house maids join the market in large numbers with their lunch money and savings..More so when they buy shares of the firms they cannot even understand what those firms do..Reading firm's a/c is beyond their ability as well..Chinese are no different than any others in that respect..Even more so when the hard working folks try to mortagage their houses and buy those shares..Young kids of few years experience in investing otm pretend to be stock wizards too..More funamentally,share market has been in long-term bear market in real terms for 6 years by now..That is inflation minus the gains since 2001..

Hou DK 11:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Euro comments

The momentum in manufacturing is beginning to ebb,'' Ken Wattret, chief European economist at BNP Paribas in London said. ``If this continues, which we would expect, that does raise some question marks about how far the ECB will go. We're pretty skeptical that they'll go beyond 4.25 percent.''

Como Perrie 11:50 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
.. and we do have the Core PCE price index as well to be watched as an indicator of one of the primary concerns of the FOMC, which is inflation.

St. Annaland Bob 11:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
COMSTOCK datafeed shows USD/JPY 12210 as high for today

Como Perrie 11:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
sry previous, actually NFPs are relative to the month of May

melbourne DC 11:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 11:38 GMT June 1, 2007
ya .. all my brokers n charts didn't show it ; highest was by a cfd provider 121.97/122.00.
and i was extra-focus on this pair as well , hoping for some free lunch by some chinese clamp down announcement :))
its probably a pre-written item accidentally sent :))
all the best for the big ones later. david.

Como Perrie 11:44 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
NFPs April expected 140K previoous was 88K

unemployment unchanged, personal income lower than previous, personal spending slightly higher than previous.

michigan 88

april pending home sales unkown previous was - 4,9 pct

ISM manufacturers index 54 previous was 54.7

RIC fxq 11:38 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 11:31 GMT

not sure how they got 12208 as my platty shows a 12198 high and it has a v. high correlation to ib prices reported.

melbourne DC 11:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy !!!
i didn't blink at all then how did i miss the blast to 122.08 , and quick pullback to 121.90 (IFR) !!

GVI john 11:19 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Charts: Updated Bourses..

JPY-Nikkei HKD-Hang Seng AUD-ASX/S&P-200 CNY-Shanghai Comp

GBP-FTSE GER-DAX CHF-SMI

USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P CAD-TSE

GVI john 11:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI

Jerusalem ML 11:07 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
My bet for NfarmPAYROLSS
UP by 66000

good luck.
M

St. Annaland Bob 10:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 10:50 GMT June 1, 2007

sometimes we get asked questions while we are too young...I am sure these days your answer should give you the job on spot ;)

Mtl JP 10:50 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:32 / You have defined "market". Pain (or pleasure) is just market's teaching and lesson delivery tool.

I was once asked if I think my tolerance levels for pain are same as those for pleasure. I didn't get the job that time.

St. Annaland Bob 10:47 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, BOOORING ???

St. Annaland Bob 10:44 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark, the collective of people so called the market is the only one to tell you if you do good or wrong...good luck

London NYAM 10:43 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Tough love JP. lol
Newark just keep your money management in control and you will be fine. If you start to get a string of losers you wont be wiped and you can stop and tweak your system.
Try help forum for specific questions.

newark 10:43 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
well i dont want that to happen.. i want to know before that happens that is the point in all of this.. haha so what do you think about the euro/usd..

Mtl JP 10:40 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
you will know soon enough; just watch the + sign morph to - in your account.

newark 10:36 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
but wat if i am doing something wrong??

Mtl JP 10:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark 10:29 / why ? just keep whatever you are doing and try to simply multily it by 5 or 10.

Like a page Chinese maintenace manual: Do not touch while it runs.

St. Annaland Bob 10:32 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 10:25 GMT June 1, 2007

pain by definition is a matter of who gets the pain, China's economy is for sure not a hot air...when looking on DJI chart since it's first days, one can see point of almost zero during the 30's...if USA markets could recover, the Chinese for sure are not capable for less.

newark 10:29 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
I am very new to this so it would be helpful if people could be a bit clearer.. I have been trading for a month now and made about 1000 USD. I try to keep my research up to date and am trying to learn what everything means to make the best trades possible. but for now I have set the euro to fall so hopefully that happens.. anyone agree or disagree

GVI john 10:28 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Mtl JP 10:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
One can play various "What If" scenarios with the numbers, for ex.: even IF chinese stocks plunged 50% now accross the board, it would wipeout only 3.5% of China "wealth", raising the question if enough widespread and sufficient pain willl have been inflicted to deliver a lesson.

Mtl JP 10:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:31 / earlier Citigroup was quoted saying that China A-share mkt not excessively priced.

Someone pointed out that Chinese stock valuation represents only some 7% of China wealth.

London NYAM 10:12 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Theme 1: What happens in Shanghai stays in Shanghai
Theme 2: So much liquidity so little volatility plenty of time
Theme 3: Interest rates are on hold

Mtl JP 09:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
forgot the link: Behind The US Dollar's Sag

Mtl JP 09:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
stox UP, Gold UP.. means usd Down.

Anyone born probably around 1965 or later might find this piece useful perspective:

Behind The US Dollar's Sag (ACN Newswire)

..."If The Six Million Dollar Man does make a return to television now, who knows; in a few years he might just be the Six Trillion Dollar Man."...

Smell of Zimbabwe.

Como Perrie 09:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
The FT.com reported yesterday in an article titled: Funds Attack Banks' Aid for Subprime Borrowers

"The $1,200 billion US subprime mortgage bond market has been hit recently by rapidly growing defaults, and hedge funds have profited from the crisis by buying such derivatives."

Global-View New Feature 09:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
We have a neat feature that we recently added that you can find on the left sidebar under Forums Login - FX + LIve FX Rates. It is the Forex Forum + a Live rate applet as an alternative to the ticker. You may need the latest java updates to make it work.

Global-View Research 09:14 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
FOREX-Dollar hits near-4-mth high vs yen before U.S. data

hk ab 09:05 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
short some dlr/jpy here 121.93

melbourne DC 08:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN: The Bank of Japan sees no pressing need to raise interest rates
in July as wage pressures on inflation are slow to emerge and the
general expectation that further BOJ rate hikes would come at six-month
intervals or so is "just about right" at this point, a well informed
source told Market News International.

Budapest Z 08:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
newark...u know what that means when majority of participants lean one way/see something the same way? ;)

madrid mm 08:57 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Most people make a big deal out of market prediction. They think they need to be right 70% or better in order to "pass" the exam that the market gives them. They also believe that they might get an "A" if they could be right 95% of the time. The need to predict the market steps from this desire to be right. People believe that they cannot be right unless they can predict what the market is doing. - Dr. Van K Tharp

Just be prepared and don t be afraid to be wrong as it will probably happen most often than being right !! Not quantity it is quality 8+-)

HK REVDAX 08:42 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:31//This is why university professors seldom get rich.

EU theEUROqueen 08:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:33 GMT June 1, 2007
happy day..i still do belive that we are on the way to 170..(hopefully)

happy trade

shanghai bc 08:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   

Chinese stock investors are good disciples of Mark Twain.." To succeed in life,you need two things: ignorance and confidence"..Mark Twain..

newark 08:29 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Look for Eur/Usd to drop to 1.34 today.. According to many reports the support is for 1.34. Is that what everyone else thinks??

Como Perrie 08:20 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg is calling this as the super-friday. Well I suspect we might go to play golf. Reminds me of the Stephen King quote lower after seen the Titanic.

Como Perrie 08:06 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
There's some squaring up ahead of UKs PMIs datas in some less than a half an hour.

Big today is US NFPs so far. Those are seen higher from previous, but difficult to figure out It clearly as serieses are getting strange for the many changes seen - even if the yesterdays US GDPs made me clear this thing has a name media are still very shy to report but It's clearly STAGLFATION imo . Me cutting out yet more ahead of the w/e, what else in such a complexity and bubbling.

----

I watched Titanic when I got back home from the hospital, and cried. I knew that my IQ had been damaged.
Stephen King


Each life makes its own immitation of immortality.
Stephen King


The beauty of religious mania is that it has the power to explain everything. Once God (or Satan) is accepted as the first cause of everything which happens in the mortal world, nothing is left to chance... logic can be happily tossed out the window.
Stephen King

We make up horrors to help us cope with the real ones.
Stephen King

Sydney Alimin 08:04 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone wants to take a pick for usdchf? it has been on a compressed triangle on weekly as well

London NYAM 07:59 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Key level was/is 1.9758 should have read. The EURGBP (.6789 now) needs to continue its decouple allowing GBP some room to go up.

London NYAM 07:54 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GBPUsd is twisting out an unusual path but it is a path distinctly higher. You can make out the start of a fifth wave on the chart. Key level was 1.9858 and it has held. Look for 1.9835 test soon.

Como Perrie 07:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
That's the secret to life... replace one worry with another.
Charles M. Schulz

Gen dk 07:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 07:33 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
good day...seems €/¥ short @ 16450 area later today will be good trade...the braver among us should consider a long to there, but not me...happy and safe trades

Bodrum OEE 07:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
I am off for the day. I wish all of you a prosperous week.

Bodrum OEE 07:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep.

Saul Bellow (1915 -2005)

The Nobel Prize in Literature 1976

hk ab 07:11 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
it seems the operators agree to allow more movement in a/j and nzd/j but not the e/j, gbp/j
.

any brave heart sell e/j here?

The Netherlands Purk 07:00 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
In the meantime, like clockwork, loonie is looking for the low. Let us see where it ends. Range is nothing yet so i guess low is between 10622-44. If the 80's hold than we see 10744...

USA Zeus 05:58 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:53 GMT May 25, 2007
Buying yen crosses (SELLING YEN) on dips (YEN RALLIES) continues like that slot machine with flashing lights and loud sirens shooting endless coins out after hitting a jackpot.


LOL

Monaco Oil man 05:56 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Re Loonie, people are starting to call for parity (the last comer's in the train , that pay the tickets for all the rest), I therefore think it will stagnate around here for awhile , with even a bias enough to eat weak short stops , still short myself , but quite above current prices.


Interesting one , GBP/CAD.

gl gt

madrid mm 05:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Ongoing good spec. demand for AUD, NZD main feature of Asia trade, otherwise quiet, pre-tonight's US data.

Nikkei report says foreign banks in Japan sent Y22tn abroad in last fiscal year.

China stocks (Shanghai A index) +1.32% @05:00gmt.

July crude oil, $64.01,+ $0.62; +0.19 to 64.20 in Asia

Asia FX and News Highlights:

Ongoing demand for Aussie and kiwi dollars the main feature of otherwise slow pre-payrolls Asia trade. Rumoured options barriers at 0.8300 on AUD/USD contain the upside, but Y101.00 barriers on AUD/JPY just taken out, as too 0.7400 on NZD/USD (high 0.7401). Model and other speculative accounts driving strength, both directly and via thirst for yen crosses (AUD/NZD also offered by speculative names).

No relevant news out of either country, but Kiwi market further pricing in RBNZ tightening next week (Kiwi June bill futures -0.02, Sep -0.04). This despite y'days weak NBNZ Business Survey and polls showing only 3 out of either 13 or 14 banks expect a rise next week (median probability of rise put at 40% in DJ poll).

USD/JPY sandwiched between exporter offers in Y121.75/85 area and support from cross rate buying vs. high yielders.

FinMin Omi and Economy Minister Ota both say US headed for soft landing but Ota blames US weakness for fall in Japanese auto output.

Nikkei report quotes BoJ sources saying foreign banks in Japan sent Y22tn abroad in year ended March 2007.

EUR/USD traces narrow orbit around 1.3450. Swiss name a notes seller met by German, UK and US bank buyers. Dutch May manufacturing PMI falls 0.3pts to 56.1. Talk of 1.3500 options expiring for NY cut today (also 1.9810 on GBP/USD).

Nikkei and JGBs:

More strong gains for Nikkei, takes out 18,000 for first time since late Feb. Chinese stock market tumble. +0.6% @17,082 @05:00gmt. JGB yields rising again, led by 5yr sector (+2.5bps). June JGB future -0.26 to 132.91, 10yr cash +0.02 to 1.765%.

madrid mm 05:53 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi,
“To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence.” - Mark Twain

The Netherlands Purk 05:49 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 20:17 GMT May 31, 2007

Nee maar it is really him. Trust you where streched up by the Rwanda boys...
Chart is in the files, maybe i held it upside down. Fact is that if you do not fight loonie but stay with its pattern one can see that it is traded by very large parties who have their orders in every day. These MIB move the pair some 1000 pips very quickly to make the yearly range. After that they just take all stops for a few month and finally they will take some back from the range, and move it again the next year. Just levels, zones to enter, range to play. Lotsa good pips to make and easy to trade once you let go of the fear and greed. And greed is what SUD AFRICANER do not have don't they?
Glad you are back, jokes have not been the same anymore.
Zie je later alligater.

Monaco Oil man 05:48 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Will be out for the day,

Looking at the post , all needed from here is a nice rise in E$ to get 170 EY from here...Rest are all pretty close.

As for GBP$ , AUD$ targets are approaching at least on AUD$ , GBP$ looking for 1.99 today and 2.0100 the following days.

Stops to entries on all positions..

GL GT.



Monaco Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007
Wouldn't be surprised to see

170 EURJPY
CADJPY 115
122 $/Y
1.37 E$
1.06 $CAD

Next following weeks gl..

GENEVA DS 05:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY reaches the target at 122.00 from PAR and KAMPO.... what is next ? do they change their mind ? is there any reason for ? may be we could first have a little overshoot to 124.00 short term, then we will see what the next target will be... but we all know... ONE DAY it will be over, but for the moment lets JOIN THE PARTY BUT WE WILL DANCE CLOSE TO THE DOOR... good trading day

Wellington, N.Z. 05:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
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Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:09 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Short-mid term view eur/usd pair: With Bloody Friday and summer ranges looming like a bad stench once again in our back yard it is imperative to bring patience to the table. 3405-15 and 3520-30 are the key points but even a break of either one at this point will not guaranteed follow through IMHO. My previous comments are still valid. Peace and GT

Sydney Alimin 03:45 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
i think i am gonna play for usdcad bounce with stop under yesterday's low, so buy 1.0701, target 1.09

GENEVA DS 03:44 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
everybody waiting for payrolls I guess... nothing will happen in majors EUR GBP USD will stay the same against each other... action happens already big buyers for commo currencies and Gold... some JPY sales.... no crash in stocks so far this morning.... gl

NYC beyond_destiny 03:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
exited euryen short for single pip...Look like bulls are gearing up to push for a break as market anticipating NFP..there is a few more chances to re-enter short @ better price.

London NYAM 03:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
CB: Or 'efficient' besides we are talking % moves over that time horizon.
Hey DS and Kap// Why are you guys awake?! Full moon i guess.

Mumbai NS 03:26 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
On Eurjpy the strong resistance at 164.5 is likely to be tested but it is worth a short there and if on return 163.30 breaks there are no two words this time that we wuld head much lower gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 03:25 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
DS & CB //
I apreciate your big picture views - this micro moves commentaries come from the risk profile of the retail traders...

Halifax CB 03:21 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
DS - USD/JPY was up there too, back then. Funny to think that folks worry about a 1 or 2 yen change thesedays; we've become myopic....

GENEVA DS 03:15 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Just saw a chart for 35 years in NZDJPY.... high was 400.00 in the 70ies...... still some space left.... gt....

Sofia Kaprikorn 03:01 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Deepak //
yes absolutely right - Daily EURJPY and EURCHF show bullish signs...
my problem is to exit this short term play that I overstayed already too much.. I just see a modest pullback before reinstating the Up trend

Mumbai Deepak 02:55 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Fwiw....Officially the US hurricane season starts! Further support for CAD!

Mumbai Deepak 02:52 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Fwiw...

React to what is happening and not on what you expect to happen......Michael Carr.

E/Y in my view is seeing buying on dips...and should be purchased while it is above 161.10. The most imp thing to watch is that carry is alive and well, even after the shanghai wobble, indicating "Carry Bull Market is climbing a Wall of Worry", as bull markets always do. I eventually expect a bullish move above 164.30 towards 166.00 in the next few days!

Sofia Kaprikorn 02:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
0214 GMT [Dow Jones] Players sell 1-day USD call/JPY put options with 122.20 strike, $100 million face value at 5.35%, suggesting players expect USD/JPY won't break above this year's high, at 122.20, even after U.S. data releases later in day, says senior options dealer at major Japan bank. Adds, price cheap, but "it's better to sell it now rather than holding it now."

jkt-aye 02:34 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn ... same situation here with usjy. squared my long when 122 held, then turn short at 121.75. sl set on break y'day high. see you on us session. gt gl

Sofia Kaprikorn 02:31 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB //
a bit confusing with all JPY crosses...
all the time carry is reinstated since China is ok...
then in EURJPY not much follow thru above 164..
and AUDJPY and AUDUSD are close to vertical.. -- my initial idea was a quick short as such steep moves are not sustainable.. but it turned out to be tougher than I thought..

Halifax CB 02:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 02:18 GMT June 1, 2007
If you're only 6 p out on Eur/jpy, I'd say you're doing ok. I think of it is one of those pairs where being only out 50-80p isn't bad at all, as long as those folks on the other end eventually smarten up and get the values right :)

Sofia Kaprikorn 02:18 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
I got myself a bit into trouble short EURJPY 163.78 and AUDJPY at 100.85...
they seem to strengthen right now..

Bodrum OEE 01:46 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
"Broke is a temporary condition, poor is a state of mind." -

-- Sir Richard Francis Burton

NYC beyond_destiny 01:41 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
re-entry euryen [email protected], S/L 164.05 T/P open

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:35 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
0031 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's upward momentum likely weak, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank, as Japanese funds already invested in USD-denominated assets overnight. Ahead of U.S. data later in day, players not willing to test upside, so pair may fall a tad due to exporters. Support tipped at 121.50, vs last 121.72 on EBS.

tnx Syd!

Syd 00:27 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:19 can see a quiet day in Asia given the data later today unless something unexpected occurs in China

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:19 GMT June 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd - hi there!
do you like USDJPY short term test of the Rising trend line on hourly at 121.60?