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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2007

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Syd 23:59 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
A large majority of City economists believe that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will turn the interest-rate screw again on Thursday and order a further quarter-point rise in borrowing costs to a new six-year high of 5.75 per cent.

London JAS 23:54 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Regarding the terror attacks in the UK - the sooner we get rid of these religious fanatics out of my country the better. Get rid of them back to their own countries and blow each other up would be the preferred solution.

Wellington, N.Z. 23:54 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
TODAY’s FX Trading Forecasts:

Max McKegg's FX Trading Forecasts are now

Cambridge Zoltan 23:53 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
JPY: Tankan in line with expectations and with prev. data

Maribor 23:48 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:21 GMT July 1, 2007

Regarding COT: net percent of speculators positions coincides well with exchange rate(higher rate, more long positions, lower rate, more short positions). I could not find consistent lead so that change in speculators positions would forecast change in exchange rate, but sometimes divergences between behavior of par exampe 20 week MA of net speculators positions and the same MA of exchange rate help to shape expectation about exchange rate movement, so that can be very useful.

Retail traders are mostly wrong, but analysing data about positioning 2 times daily and comparing with exchange rate also does not show any predictable power. It can however be useful to think about trading breakouts: retail traders will be cought on wrong foot and sharks will cash some money...

You can also Google Commitment of Traders...

Syd 23:30 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:24 with the terror attacks they may think twice though the market is already starting to hit the fan

Sydney ACC 23:24 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:26 GMT July 1, 2007
I note the Shadow MPC voted 8-1 for a rise of 25 bps with one member punting for a 50 bps increase.
I read where the Bloomberg poll showed 75% of economists predicted a 25bps increase this week.
Given that it takes only one member to change his/her vote and the four that voted for an increase last time are unlikely tio change I go with the 75%. Nevertheless its going to be close and given sterling's recent strength it might turn out to be a buy the rumour sell the fact.
looking further forward if we see more bearish news on teh economy ie High Street sales, property values etc the market may have to take back the other 25bps it has factored in.

Syd 23:22 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Treasurer Worried By Private Equity Fund Risk
Australia's Treasurer, Peter Costello, said Sunday he would be worried by at least two aspects of highly leveraged buyouts of companies by private equity funds.

"If you have very high leverage, very large borrowings, a downturn in the company could put the company at risk," Costello said in an interview on Sky television. "I am also concerned that high leverage and high borrowing isn't used as a tax minimization device."

Australia's financial regulators are looking at private equity funds from the point of view of leverage, corporate stability, and stability in the financial system from the tax angle and they will be advising the government in relation to that, he said.

Australia hasn't had any bad experience so far, with the most highly publicized private equity offer, that for Qantas Airways Ltd., rejected by the market, he said.

Syd 23:14 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 23:09 yes thats correct cheers

Bon Air VA Dennis 23:09 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:26 GMTconfirming article on AFX a few minutes ago.

Syd 22:26 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the prices are hitting the fan in the UK even before they Hike rates further...

Syd 22:24 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Business comment: There's no painless cure for the debt hangover

Sydney ACC 22:22 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
mumbai apu 22:12 GMT July 1, 2007
But has he been predicting Aussie topping out at 0.8520/30 level or has he been increasing his target as it has continued to appreciate.
Best predictor recently for antipodewan currencies on this site has been Oilman.

mumbai apu 22:12 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
ACC that's the same analysis that guy has been posting for the last three months!!

Sydney ACC 22:05 GMT July 1, 2007
Syd 21:47 GMT July 1, 2007
That is the same analysis you posted last week.

Syd 22:10 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC , mrng any views on direction today with the attacks ongoing in UK

Yen Drop to 22-Year Low Disrupts Nissan, Canon Earnings Outlook By Stanley White

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nissan Motor Co., Canon Inc. and Ricoh Co. say the yen's slump to a 22-year low is too much of a good thing for Japan's exporters.

Nissan, the nation's third-biggest carmaker, can't afford to rely on exchange rates to compete, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn says. Canon Chairman Fujio Mitarai, head of the country's largest business lobby, and Ricoh President Masamitsu Sakurai, leader of the biggest executive group, said the yen's drop is becoming a concern.

Sydney ACC 22:05 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT July 1, 2007
That is the same analysis you posted last week.
Article in today's SMH headlined AUD tipped to rise to 90 cents.

Sydney ACC 21:59 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Was sterling affected by the July 2005 bombings?
Hard to tell really.
Prior to the bombings on 7th July cable traded 1.7501, the next day it was 1.7420, on 14th July 1.7620 and 8th August 1.7751. Against the euro change was more profound.
Using the same times and dates on 7th July 0.6813, 8th July 0.6850, 14th July 0.6846 and 8th August 0.6945.
While there was no significant change against USD during the aftermath, there was against the euro. Problem was euro was very strong over that month it alsio firmed against AUD by a cent.

Syd 21:47 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
A$, a steep decline nearing?

Syd 21:30 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD Multi-Year Low Possibly In Place at 1.0470
The USD/CAD made 30 year lows this morning. Time to play a break...right?

Makassar Alimin 21:02 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
that news will fade away by itself, i dont think it will have a big impact

Syd 20:59 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (AP)--Heathrow Airport's terminal 3 was closed Sunday night after a "suspect package" was found, airport authorities said.

Airport operator BAA said in a statement that police were on the scene and "are working with airport staff to get the terminal reopened as soon as possible." Further details weren't immediately available.

svk rosso 20:45 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
i mean GBP/JPY ;-)

svk rosso 20:44 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
We`ll see on GBJ/JPJ soon...
I personaly feel sort on this pair

lkwd jj 20:30 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
if nobody gets killed it will be ok but history shows after 9/11 and 07/05 london bombing (the home ccy) falls.

Makassar Alimin 20:21 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
i think cable 2.130 should be tested at least this round, so will try scalp early monday to buy for any dips towards 2.0050 with stop under 2.0020

lkwd jj 18:28 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
how will terror in uk affect cable?

The Netherlands Purk 18:20 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:09 GMT June 29, 2007
Nope dad, i leave the yen crosses alone unless i see the end of the range. bugger does the tick tick to the high thing and 16621 is a dangerous thing. After that there is only 16687, and after that the next zone and new high. Just the market there to see. Loonie as said is going for lower lows. It is not going so fast now, first we have to see 15552, than there will be some fastness. But also remember 10622 will also be there....

This is another example in which i believed strongly. I wrote this before the 10471.Waited and wait for good possies, and got s/l out. Instead of losing i ended up in profit, also because i took the 10487.

The Netherlands Purk 16:55 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Neatherlands Purk Snr 07:10 GMT June 29, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 07:02 You too have a soul full of hope, son, just like RWANDA, otherwize why did you buy at 660 and than again @ 593? HO-PING sounds like an ancient Chinese city frequented by American boys looking for wife.

Because i believe in what i do. Closed out the 93 of course on Friday, and i took a 10487 as well which o bailed out a bit to soon, but just taking some heat off.

NN= Next door Neighbour. Since he has left Alicia alone he started drinking i guess, see the story from today that dragged him sober... drinking is over now and just good enough to stop e/j....
Cheers all see you all in the new week, I am sincerely whishing that people wake up here and help eachothers, otherwise there will to many Dïcks in here to stop...
MIW are taking over control in my opinion.

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:36 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
aurora colorado JT 19:20 GMT

the platform I use "ends" Friday trading at 17:00 ET which corresponds to the daily CME/IMM "close.

The Netherlands Purk 15:54 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 13:37 GMT June 29, 2007
Yes i see the bugger going to the highs, but it will be stopped. If not err, there is no not...

Noted that this Friday was a copy from last friday levels.
I wrote above because i believe in what i do. Shorted at 55,70,80,83 and 90.
Closed the last 4 at 47. Taking some back.
I further believe that it wont get above 16735. Earlier i already was convinced that the high 165's where hiding the highs already plus mib pips.
You have to believe in what you do othereise no trades for me.

The Netherlands Purk 15:45 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Biggest " gain " that i saw this week that some people where actually saying to each other that they be here for the same purpose. Lets see if they meant that...

Makassar Alimin 14:21 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Oil man mentioned about bullishness of pound based on increasing number of retail shorters but Syd mentioned about IMM speculators increasing their long pound do one interpret it, do they contradict each other, or is it like comparing apple and orange? I am not into COT report, so please excuse my ignorance

Cbj Jake 14:12 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd - a long delayed appreciation of your posts. They are so restful. I have long associated the impersonal with sanity and harmony. So my respect for you.

Syd 06:59 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
IMM specs boost stg longs,yen short to record-CFTC
Currency speculators boosted their positions in favor of the British pound and bets against the yen to record highs, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.The value of the net short U.S. dollar position in the week to June 26 swelled to $10.3 billion from $3.3 billion the previous week, according to Reuters calculations.
The aggregate dollar position is derived from the net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.The net-long position on the pound rose to 96,134 contracts from 71,693 contracts a week earlier. The net-short yen position rose to a record 188,077 contracts, from 161,361 the week earlier

Syd 06:49 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia Heightens Travel Warnings For UK On Terrorist Acts
CANBERRA, Australia (AP)--The government heightened its travel warnings for the U.K. Sunday after three terrorist acts in London and Scotland

Syd 06:48 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
NAB eyes UK swoop
NATIONAL Australia Bank's 10-year search for a merger partner in Britain may be nearing a decisive moment, with the value of potential target banks falling to their lowest levels in more than a decade.

Speculation is mounting in local investment circles that NAB may be eyeing Britain's ninth-largest mortgage lender, Alliance & Leicester.

London-listed A&L has a market worth of pound stg. 4.79 billion ($11.2 billion), but leading analysts believe NAB would have to shell out at least $13 billion to execute a takeover.,21985,21991154-664,00.html

Belgrade Bobby 00:00 GMT July 1, 2007 Reply   
Of course we should get in touch Perrie ( Jay have my e-mail, so no problem there :)
Re: adding to losing position...have you ever heard the expression Oil mate - If in trouble , then you double - :) What do you think, what those huge funds that went MIA did to deserve that ? :) BTW, how can you avoid entering losing trade ?? Would appreciate your input on that 1.....



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