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Forex Forum Archive for 07/02/2007

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Syd 23:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC People who were looking at where the tentacles of sub-prime lending led !!! seems they are starting to creep out of the woodwork

Sydney ACC 23:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Private Equity Deal Collapses - GBP 1.8 billion Problems raising debt

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article2017557.ece

Syd 23:42 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Suspect In UK Terrorism Plot Arrested In Australia - Report

Syd 23:33 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Marc Faber on CNBCasia Live

Syd 23:24 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 23:17 great to see :-))

Syd 23:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   

A Bit more on that.
Bridgecorp Receivership May Hurt Households - ANZ
2304 GMT [Dow Jones] NZ financial company Bridgecorp's collapse could hurt balance sheets of local households, says ANZ Bank in report; thinks collapse is "non-trivial," expects "some ructions across the finance industry over the coming months in a similar fashion to mid 2006." Notes Bridgecorp funds that were frozen following receivership amount to one third of economic boost provided via recent surge in dairy payout. Notes receivership leaves NZ$500 million in investments frozen, impacting 18 000 investors.

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
tnx Syd!

Oil Man - I feel much better to see you fade the same - i started a bit early at 7775 and 90 but averaged to 0.78..

Gen dk 23:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:20 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: BOJ Warns Banks On Hedge Fund Risks - Report

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:19 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
A [NZ] finance company; Bridgecorp Ltd, has collapsed, leaving about 18,000 mainly "mum and dad" Kiwi investors unsure of the fate of nearly NZ$500mn they have invested with the company. Whilst Bridgecorp's woes were due in part to its inability to raise funds in Australia (where its parent company lies) and recent troubles over an invt in Fiji; for New Zealand, the receivership, effective last night, is seen the biggest of its type in recent years, and dwarfs the collapses last yr of Provincial Finance, Western Bay and National Finance 2000. It will be interesting to see just how mkt confidence will be affected by this definite risk averse news; especially with the NZD surging abv 0.7800 to hit fresh post 22yr highs and the AUD up at 18yr peaks.

could it be this?

nyc 23:19 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
,,Ask your friend Purky...he knows,,,,,

fl, usa ag 23:18 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
likely possibilty of intervention? NZD?

Syd 23:17 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:06 Aussie used to be a very slow snail, but the carry trades have given it spice generally around data I find the best time or just use the highs and lows , orders to buy a huge chunk or sell it comes out the blue its not the best of currencies to trade

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:16 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
any idea what caused the sudden drop in NZD.. it was so fast..

Syd 23:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY drifting down from late NY levels and likely has slight downward bias on overall weaker USD, lower U.S. Treasury yields, says trader at major Japan bank; tips pair to fall in part as players close positions before U.S. holiday tomorrow. Support at 122, then 121.50, break of which may initiate stronger downtrend;

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
macd on hourly nzdusd has crossed from above so minor correction might give me chance to lighten just below 78

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:06 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd //
hi - may I ask if you have observed any particular pattern of when volatility picks up in AUD & NZD - is it like majors mainly moved in the European session or is also dynamic in the Asian session since the yield chasing by Jap investors is fueling the appreciation of these ccyies?

Syd 22:51 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Don't Expect Much Guidance From Trichet - BarCap


2246 GMT [Dow Jones] ECB to stand pat this week with key being how much Trichet signals a hike in September, says Barclays Capital. If statement changes "monitor closely" to "monitor very closely," that would be a faint sign; "in addition, Trichet is bound to be asked about market expectations concerning a September hike but we suspect he would rather offer no comment on market expectations in two months' time. He is also likely to be asked about whether the ECB is planning an August press conference (in keeping with usual custom, none is scheduled). We would expect him to say there are currently no plans but that nothing is ever ruled out." Overall, doesn't look for Trichet to offer much guidance about timing of next hike though house still of view this will happen in September; "we do suspect that, as in June, the 'body' of the text will be more hawkish than the opening sentences."

Syd 22:46 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
RBA Meets Today But Rate Change Unlikely

LKWD JJ 21:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
zues your outta luck as 07/07/07. is a saturday and the mkts wil be closed.

Sydney ACC 21:56 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
In the last two days there have been several major overseas acquisitions and buybacks:
1. Westfields has raised another £530 million through the launch of its long-anticipated wholesale UK Shopping Centre Fund, the assets are owned by institutions but managed by Westfield. It was only two weeks ago that Westfield, the world's largest retail landlord, tapped the Australian equity market for $3 billion to help fund its $10 billion-plus development pipeline.
2. Under its deal, Multiplex has signed up for a £339.5 million project developing three hospitals in Peterborough, north of London.
3. Macquarie Communications paid USD 1.4 billion for US telephone towers bought from Blackstone.
4. CSR purchased the Pilkington glass operations from Nippon Glass for AUD 680 million.
5. And rumours of NAB considering a major acquisition in the UK - Alliance and Leceister being the likely target.


2. Multiplex

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:50 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry if irrelevant -
as I've seen some comments on market correlation to moon phases etc.. - I thought there might be some natural correlation between natural rythm and trading cycle (certainly influenced by being short 0.78) -- so since last night was full moon and the rise reached its turning point and now the moon is on the wane...

in the same way the up trend in NZDUSD (AUDUSD also) today following the full moon reached an long term High (above 0.78) and the trend fade..

--- this is certainly not pragmatic thinking .
especially with OM's 7860 target in mind

GVI john 21:43 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

USA Zeus 21:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD From the magical 1.3277 support to 1.3777 perhaps.


Ok will check back here when oil hits 77.77 (Hope we see that before the Easter Bunny LOL)

Happy Day!

Syd 21:10 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai stocks may decline over policy doubts
http://en.ce.cn/subject/chinamarkets/mktopinion/200707/02/t20070702_12025077.shtml

Yuan likely to make small gains as measures bite
http://en.ce.cn/subject/chinamarkets/mktcurrencies/200707/02/t20070702_12025328.shtml

Syd 21:06 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Upbeat Tankan To Spur Speculation For Aug Or Sept Rate Hike
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Bank of Japan's increased confidence that the economy will continue to grow, based on the tankan business sentiment survey it released Monday, has boosted speculation that the central bank could raise interest rates in August or September.

LKWD JJ 20:38 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
122.46 34ma in $Y daily chart. havent closed below that ma since may. heads up.... zeus this is the making of the 34 ma secret.....

nj jf 20:38 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:11 GMT July 2, 2007

i forgot to mention the easter bunny

lkwd jj 20:37 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
i meant for others not the home system.

lkwd jj 20:33 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
oil man
last 2 post there.---->.
contradictory?

Syd 20:31 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Warns Commercial Banks Of Hedge Fund Risks - Nikkei


TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Bank of Japan issued a warning about investing in hedge funds Monday, urging financial institutions to check the performance histories of fund managers before making a commitment, The Nikkei Financial Daily reported in its Tuesday edition.

In its report on hedge fund investments, the central bank noted that returns largely hinge on the fund manager's skills and that investments usually cannot be canceled for a certain period of time.

The BOJ also recommended that financial institutions obtain as much accurate information as possible about the hedge funds they are considering, advising them to thoroughly examine the skills and investment policies of the managers. Financial institutions are also urged to assess whether potential losses are tolerable.

Syd 20:28 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Tax evasion taskforce to probe UK

Plans have been drawn up for an international taskforce to crack down on tax haven abuses orchestrated in large part by bankers, accountants and lawyers in London.
As authoritative evidence suggests that $1 trillion of illicit funds flow to secretive havens managed by financiers based in London, New York and Dubai, the Norwegian government is forming a global coalition to 'facilitate the recovery of assets illicitly stacked away in tax havens'. Several countries are set to join, but Britain, recently classed as an offshore financial centre by the International Monetary Fund, is not among them.http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,2115469,00.html

Syd 20:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Asia: 10 years after the financial crisis
3:55pm: What has changed since the 1997 Asian financial crisis? LINK

dc CB 19:43 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Goldman...errrrrrrr I mean

15:37 Paulson says US housing correction 'at or near' bottom - Reuters

Syd 19:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
apan Mulls More Tax Rewards For Giving To Nonprofits -Nikkei


TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Japanese government plans to expand tax incentives for charitable donations to nonprofit organizations offering public services in the hope that this will boost financial contributions, The Nikkei reported in its Tuesday morning edition.

Proposed revisions to taxing financial contributions to nonprofit organizations were included in the economic and fiscal policy blueprint for 2007 that the government compiled in mid-June. The government Tax Commission and others will flesh out the details beginning this fall with the goal of including the revisions as part of fiscal 2008 tax reform measures.
Charitable giving by Japanese individuals and companies totals around Y700 billion, about 1/30th that of the U.S.

The government hopes that an increase in giving will enable private-sector organizations to offer more services to the public, alleviating the fiscal burden shouldered by the public sector.
Also, the government will consider increasing the number of organizations to which contributions are tax deductible. Of the 25,000 nonprofit organizations, including foundations and other public service corporations, only around 900 are certified by government ministries as tax deductible for contribution purposes
As part of fiscal 2007 tax reform, the government lifted the cap on deductions for financial contributions by individuals to 40% of total income, up from 30%.

Syd 19:23 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
18,000 hit by finance company collapse
Finance company Bridgecorp Limited has collapsed, leaving about 18,000 mainly "mum and dad" Kiwi investors unsure of the fate of nearly $500 million they have invested with the company.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4115843a10.html

USA Zeus 18:41 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:32 GMT July 2, 2007

Nope- Just the NYMEX contracts.

Wish all here great trades and many future successes.
tchau

Singapore TR 18:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
so looks like everyone is saying usd has no future from hereon?

USA Zeus 18:33 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
JP- Like 200 MA is to an egg a trend is to a chicken.
Can't have one without the other but having one does not necessarily lead to the other.

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 18:26 / I expect you crushed smooth as butter dlrcad 1.0535

Alaska Moon 18:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've
lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to
take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed
over and over and over again in my life. And that is
why I succeed."
Michael Jordan

Mtl JP 18:28 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
zeus, regadless of what Ed Seykota may think, for me Rye, NY et 18:034 need for eggs settles the case.

USA Zeus 18:26 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Ah- JP..Buy on dip from the 70 marker has put us back above 71 again to 71.15. LOL

USA Zeus 18:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
"ive noticed a few trends in nature"

As all have been interpreted on an individual basis from a historical paradigm
All of these are historical. orange is an interpretation and color (light) comes and goes as stars cannot burn forever. Lions eat smaller animals until there are no more lions or animals for them to eat- same for the dinasaurs.

Some dark clouds offer rain and some do not- could be why the weather predictions are so often false.

Exiting the atmosphere in a "straight up" line has in the past converted the object into carbon dust- same for re-entry. Perhaps the future will be different.

Rye, NY et 18:03 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Patient: "Doctor, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken."
Doctor: "So, tell him he's not a chicken."
Patient: "I can't. We need the eggs."
-------------------------------------------------
There's no such thing as a "Trend" ---- but, we need the eggs...

Cambridge Zoltan 18:00 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
NOK has been very strong for a few hours now, esp. NOK_SEK. Anyone has a clue why? I couldn't find any news out, but that doesn't mean much. Thanks!!

nj jf 17:57 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
"There is no such thing in nature."

ive noticed a few trends in nature

oranges tend to be the color orange, lions tend to eat smaller animals when they get hungry, when grey clouds roll overhead there's a strong tendency to rain, to sail around the world you need to trend in one direction to make it, to get into space the best way to go is in a straight line ... UP.

USA Zeus 17:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Please forgive the timely repost from earlier-

USA Zeus 00:30 GMT July 2, 2007
trader asked a question:

I have been searching far and wide for a trader who can define a trend. None have lived up to the task...I have read piles of books and none have been able to answer my question either.


Ed Seykota answered:

Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist. Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now. Furthermore, The methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend. Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.


adios



Makassar Alimin 17:50 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
all i can say is be careful out there fading the move, with market expected to be in holiday mood, one might not get the little quick pips expected and could easily get screwed by the tiny range...good luck and trades to all..off now, see you all tomorrow

USA Zeus 17:45 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 17:44 GMT July 2, 2007

Moon- Trends only exist in the past- not even in the now.

GENEVA JFO 17:45 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed
Are you around?

I would suggest to have a quick short trade from these levels
1.3620/25 for a consolidating mode process.

Target 1.3590/00

Gd trd

Alaska Moon 17:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:32 GMT July 2, 2007
======
LOL !!!
I read a cute quip on "trending" the traders says that if you use the last 3 words of..."The trend is your friend till it ends"
Then you might want to change the sentence to "the trend WAS your trend" LOL
I guess we can all agree that the trend is a wide angle look in the rear view mirror...
Moon

The Netherlands Purk 17:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
I am trying to figure out if saying: I am the best out in public or in your self is the same thing....

USA Zeus 17:40 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
JP- All one needs to do is wait for such signals (200 MA etc) then make bold predictions. Most will not amount to anything. The ones that do are "genius" and should be focused on in light of the teeth grinding for the remaining predictions. Must also scrub the many "reversal" views commented along the way of the big ONE.

IF everyone shorted New Century where I suggested and bought endless puts and shorted on the stock on margin we could double Uncle Warrens pledge to cousin Bill's foundation...


USA Zeus 18:28 GMT November 28, 2006
Actually the core business of Countrywide is conventional conforming paper. If sub prime is your target try New Century symbol: NEW

NY tim 17:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY 273 this year ?

Mtl JP 17:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Moon 17:14 / for some trading forex is like a quantum physicist's sex: find the position but can't find the momentum; get the momentum, can't find the position.

Monaco Oil man 17:27 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP , like :


Cannes Oil man 14:49 GMT February 23, 2007
"....cause here we are at 1.16, and i have the same exact indicators playing with one at 3416 while it was at 1789 in may 2004..It shows the upside volatility strenght (when it goes down vol reverses to the downside , it's now doing so)..
It's hard not to think in terms of high and lows , cause once 1.14 breaks this on the weekly designates $/CAD coming up with a new all time lows coming in the months ahead......"


New all time low in btw..

GT.

Como Perrie 17:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Also Bush-Putin talks are interesting. Some protesters there yet think about peace and impeachment ref. iraq war, but at this point is meaningless - too late.

I do wonder how the sentiment in big cities around will change if those articles of earlier warning about further terror changes - and multi religious towns clashes. Good luck and good night.

lkwd jj 17:14 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
oil man how many pips did that cost and do you get a flat quote for the spread or do you pay the ask and receive the bid? could you post the price for the put @ 245 alone? i want to see how much more risk is involved if one was to leg in 1 side (long first) at a time.

Alaska Moon 17:14 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
My "hindsight" is so ACCURATE that I should now be a millionaire !!!!!! LOL

USA Zeus 17:13 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:08 GMT July 2, 2007

Of course not! The law of the 200 MA system is "The Secret Revealed!"

Mtl JP 17:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
zeus, do you think a near-thousand pip non-existent trend needs a more complicated signal ?

USA Zeus 17:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
UBS increases est ave WTI crude oil prices to $65- pretty timely considering it is at 70.40...LOL

USA Zeus 16:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:41 GMT July 2, 2007

Was that it? the law of the 200 MA?
And now we know the secrets of the market LOL

Makassar Alimin 16:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
usd index is in trouble, damage has been done fwiw, even if we range from here i think it will resume the downtrend when everyone is back from holiday

Gen dk 16:47 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 16:41 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:04 / HAD you recognized the signaled sell power of loon's close under the 200MA (from 1.1446 begining of April) AND gone with the trend (that apparently does not exist) you would be sitting on a pretty pile of pipski's.

ahh... the world of could should would, eh eh

Monaco Oil man 16:39 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 16:24 GMT July 2, 2007

Right on, plus with options the one of the most important decisive factor is time...Where could GBPCHF be within those few days..Under 2.42 before expiry seemed unlikely..But even though wouldn't have made me risk anything..This is very basic anyways, and something much more complex could have been done..But cost or risk would have risen.

GT.

prague mark 16:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:35 GMT July 2, 2007

200-300pips which way?

USA Zeus 16:35 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the yen story will heat up for the asians (people of asia) next session.

Still looking for that 200-300 pip GBP/USD day. Me thinks it is coming soon- very soon

USA Zeus 16:28 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Well yes buy GBP/USD on dips has still been flavor but am ending that idea with just a scale out on the surge.

Makassar Alimin 16:25 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:07 GMT July 2, 2007

with recent high broken, i am thinking more immediate upside is coming, say to 2.04 as some will start shorting to test water but with most on holidays i think all initial short attempts will be short-lived..need to see consolidation of the gain first though, probably 60 more pips to upside from here and range until Thu's MPC then we will see

lkwd jj 16:24 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
oil man
i see now 245 put bought 242 put sold less cost= less profit = less risk.

EU theEUROqueen 16:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob!

it will be so nice if we can crash the 1,37..BUT we need ur help.!!

Happy trade

Como Perrie 16:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:03 GMT July 2

spotted some was actually bond related. seemingly traditional japanese appetite for US bonds is lowering at current.. let's see how It is going to develop. Not easy the whole.

HK Kevin 16:07 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:00 GMT, agree. Cable need to close below 2.0120 before thinking short.

USA Zeus 16:04 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
For CADettes- Big oil psych level at 70.

dc CB 16:03 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:35 GMT July 2, 2007
PS am carefully watching this UsdJpy 122.00 for 121.60

imo. this can be looked at as a "synthetic" put against US stox going into enhanced "threat" level holiday. 1/2 day Wall Street tues. closed wed. Currency (even using Globex futures) is only way to have a liquid position until Thurs Stox open.

Monaco Oil man 16:00 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 15:48 GMT July 2, 2007

I posted a pdf..Anyways this is how it's called..

Basically you have a view , which you pay with a premium , you lessen that cost by selling another option below..Minimizing your cost , also maximizing your profits to the call strike..In this case, there is no profits below 2.42..but only from 2.4560 to 2.42..

GL.

Makassar Alimin 16:00 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 15:48 GMT July 2, 2007

with a close like this, I won't be the one jumping to short it, it is just the start of the week, month and quarter...only a close under today's low will open the play from short side, i'll leave top guessing game for others, clearly recent top has been broken anyway, so high degree of guessing at the moment from short side

USA Zeus 15:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD same song all day buy on dip scale on blip.

Como Perrie 15:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:48 GMT July 2, 2007

Yes. But the big unsolved problem is our cultural evolution yet trapped into coupla generations back ol', most wrong habits. So in one word to avoid the whole It would take a change at the top powers way of administrating/controlling the society. But still this is another problem as of narcisism related to hierarchies, while for the masses we talk of non affordability of self-naricisim to be valuated and so they do go into collective nationalistic-religius narcisism, which is a by product of heroes, terrorists, overpopulation and many other aspects. The tribe and the homo-sapiens are yet less evoluted than some wants us to think.

best

lkwd jj 15:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
looks like cable was set up short for a drop after attacks but they fizzled and was squeezed out to the upside. all stops hit and now ready for a drop as buy the rumor sell news strategy is setting itself up once again.

London NYAM 15:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:35 GMT July 2, 2007// The return to medieval IS the theme of societal collapse isn't it? One society/group seeks it as redemption, the other fights it and may unwittingly help provoke its return. Liberal redemtion presumably can only occur upon self-reflection as well as critical examination of the 'other.'

lkwd jj 15:43 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:49 GMT July 2, 2007
put spread on the pair which was @2.47 and went down so you made pips . language of x put and y call threw me for a loop. why not call it a put on the pair as opposed to both the put/ call?

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man //
tnx - I'm definately went wrong here.. but will try ot get out with minor damage ..

On Options - I'm interested in trying options in the future and that's why I asked for the name of the strategy..

Como Perrie 15:35 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
I still find It medieval the whole this story about race and religious madness, a narcisistic boiler of common nationalistic/religious narcisism administration. Which as says Fromm, over certain levels brings to non understanding and stupid clashes/wars.

What else....most medium/low society muslims think to have four wives is something prescribed by god. Well history shows that It wasnt like that, but It become so when from the 7th to 11th century of muslim expansions and due to the many borders fought for expansion many males have died and so those at home, prescribed by the leading cast of those times, gained the right to have four women so to add the necessary warforce and censored lotsa. Hence nowadays stll more or less the same.

PS am carefully watching this UsdJpy 122.00 for 121.60

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:34 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
average short NZDUSD 0.7800 - definately fading a strong trend so I think I will lighten if seen 7795/7800 soon and try new shorts around 7850/70

Monaco Oil man 15:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:09 GMT July 2, 2007


That GBPCHF put spread was taken at spot 2.47xx..And out now..1:14..(it was fully posted here before , or on site).
--
Anyways as for NZDUSD , the first target was reached 7760, next target being 7860..and it's coming fast.

As for my part, i m currently flat spot, as I placed limits all over to buy on dips, but as i posted last night, the market might force me to buy high's and never dip..

GT

GENEVA JFO 15:31 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 15:21 GMT july 2 ,2007

If you are long only , I would take profit around 1.3625.
Last friday I posted to take profit of 2/3 of the position.
I am speaking of the rest 1/3 of the long position to close.

I will take a new short position at higher levels above the all time high.
I will post it as soon as.

Gd trade to you

Napoli DC 15:30 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Ed
3625 alive and kicking

Como Perrie 15:29 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 15:08 GMT July 2, 2007
Me is reading on some italian newspapers a jordan, Mohammed Jamil Abdelkader Asha. 26 years old working at the Stoke-on-Trent Hospital in Staffordshire NW


PS... took out of usdcad shorts some

Makassar Alimin 15:27 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
nice gbpusd squeeze before MPC decision on Thu...heavyweight train

NYC Ed 15:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA JFO...would you go short now or wait for the 3625?? thanks

lkwd jj 15:13 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
also djia is up which has been trading with $Y like a glove.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:09 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   

Monaco Oil Man //
hello - may i ask if this strategy is a Bear Put Spread?

and if you like may I ask for your opinion on NZDUSD?
I keep in mind your target of 7780 was reached

I have an average short entry just above 80 but will add new short at 7819..
my reasoning is that the Average Range in Kiwi is 80-100 pips (with extreme 170 pips June 8 - 11)

Syd 15:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
One Of The Glasgow Bomb Suspects Is An Iraqi Doctor - TV

GENEVA JFO 15:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone,

eur/usd is now in overbght territory and suggest to take profit around 1.3625.
If we see the 2 or 3 next days excessing levels (above alltime high) , then suggest to start selling the pair.
With independance day on the 4th, we will have a volatile week......

Gd trd all

lkwd jj 15:07 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
mkt seem out of sync as yen strength not causing carry unwind but general usd weakness. yen is gains off usd weakness should be limited and find support at 12200-20. area.

HK Kevin 15:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:40 GMT, no idea at the moment. Wait for today's market close for next clue.

Makassar Alimin 15:01 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
when a report has been released, usually nothing happens, it is when there is no warning or the warning being ignored/unpublished then the real terror strikes

HK Kevin 14:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:42 GMTm, sorry for the confusion. I followed my trading plan, just failed to make money.

Syd 14:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Controlled Blast At Royal Alexandra Hospital In Scotland-TV

Como Perrie 14:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
A secret U.S. law enforcement report, prepared for the Department of Homeland Security, warns that al Qaeda is planning a terror "spectacular" this summer, according to a senior official with access to the document.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=3336148

Gen dk 14:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 14:49 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Spot: 2.4717
GBP Put / CHF Call GBP Put / CHF Call
Strike 1: 2.4500 Strike 2: 2.4200
Expiry Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2007
---

Done..

Como Perrie 14:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
said=side... barbecue leg and brain neural retardments at times :)

Como Perrie 14:47 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Renewed M&A flowing into Canada adds today onto the pair. While technically 1.0520 remains key to understand if there will be further developments of Cad positive trend to resume. Might be even some said, but the tone has been ringing many times onto those new M&A again today.

Syd 14:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:39 GMT its seems to be endless pot of gold :-))

London NYAM 14:42 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:36 GMT July 2, 2007 // Agreed. And what was the plan that you failed to follow? If I may ask.

Makassar Alimin 14:40 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:36 GMT July 2, 2007

could well be the case, do you see possibility of 1.35-1.37 range?

Mtl JP 14:39 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:34 / the sort of "adequate pain" might be in the ferocious (i.e. within a week) loss of say somewhere between $30-90K by each of the so-called "housewives".

HK Kevin 14:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:31 GMT, picking top/bottom is the challenge of every trader, but need to follow the trading plan. I failed this time.
Just wonder whether today's market move is related to the asset allocation of funds for the Q3?

NYC Ed 14:34 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Is jumping IN to SHORT eur/usd, is that what they call "Smart Money" gl gt

London NYAM 14:31 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Kev// Not a good day to pick tops /bottoms. Dollar just keeps getting whacked. gl

HK Kevin 14:29 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Not a good start of Q3 for me. Short NZD stop out with 20 pips loss. Als closed my short Cable with 5 pips loss. Prefer to stay sideline today and watch.

Syd 14:26 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 14Sydney ACC 14:23:23 true, actually can see 50bp hike in August for BOJ which is why they are letting it run lose , we have seen the elastic band springs back, dont think many of the japanese punters have new to the market

Makassar Alimin 14:26 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 14:17 GMT July 2, 2007

they can call it whatever they want, but market wants to see real action, bring on the hikes

Sydney ACC 14:23 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 14:08 GMT July 2, 2007
Europe kicked up more of a fuss when EUR/JPY was at 150 level at G7 meeting in Singapore September 2006.
Until the Americans say something as well this will go on. Triouble is as I have said before the Yanks have a bigger fish to fry, they can't be seen pushing the Japanese to intervene in the markets whikle they lecture China on currency reform. So Japan will continue to benefit from a lower yen to compensate for the ageing populatioin and lowere consumption.
But the longer this continues the worse the reversal is likely to be.

Syd 14:17 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of Japan's Inflation Threat Scale
Given events in the UK this weekend, we not only have to contend with Red Alerts from the Dept of Homeland Security, but market practitioners must contend with a new system introduced today in Japan. Taking a cue from the United Kingdom's Home Office, the Bank of Japan has initiated an "Inflation Threat Scale" in an attempt to forewarn the nation, and especially foreign policy-makers and market participants of threats that might require changes in official BoJ interest rate policy

Syd 14:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 14:01 it really comes down to how much weakness the rest of the world will tolerate especially europe

Syd 14:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   

US ISM Jun Mfg Business Index 56.0 Vs May 55.0

Sydney ACC 14:01 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:34 GMT July 2, 2007
Mtl JP 13:29 GMT July 2, 2007
If these punters' time horizon is say three years, the NZ Govt Bond rate is 7.25% and the same Japanese Bond is 1.16%.
Interest differential of 6.09% per annum.
Given the magnitude of the differential they are not going to experience a twinge until Kiwi has depreciated 15% against JPY. At 20% they get no return on their money.
At 30% is where the pain should start.
Problem is all those punters that have aleady piled in have a lot of profit up their sleeve. Since 1 Jan NZD/JPY has appreciated 11.25%.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
i howeevr think audusd and nzdusd now at long term highs might be boosted by the shorters stops to bit overextended levels - like 0.86 & 0.7820

Syd 13:34 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:29 GMT July 2, 2007
Syd 13:25 / re "harder to spook": not IF the Lesson delivered by House of Pain is severe enough.

what sort of pain would you consider adequate ?

Como Perrie 13:30 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 12:21 GMT July 2, 2007

Ok then..sry saw just those coupla lines you printed, but no big time to read much today...part busy on mkts, part the barbecue leg from yesterday...hava a good day ahead bibi

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:25 / re "harder to spook": not IF the Lesson delivered by House of Pain is severe enough.

Syd 13:25 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Lex: Long term yen
Like cherry blossoms, or the short but glorious life of a samurai, is the yen carry trade an ephemeral phenomenon? Last week’s bounce in Japan’s currency has again sparked fears of an unwinding of carry trades, in which investors borrow in yen and buy assets abroad. But taking a longer view, there are reasons to think that the yen may not rise, despite being up to 30 per cent undervalued on fundamental measures.

There is no doubt that low volatility and large interest rate differentials have spurred carry trades, resulting in downward pressure on the yen. The scale of positions is hard to determine, but there are basically two groups of investors that matter. Speculative punters, such as hedge funds, may indeed exit positions if yield gaps narrow, or return expectations make the trade unattractive. But Japanese savers, the other significant source of yen weakness, may prove far harder to spook.

FT.com

Syd 13:14 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 13:06 just what CB like

Makassar Alimin 13:06 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
we used to have complaints and verbal intervention from european's officials when we were at this euro level few years back, and this time there is none, guess we are heading much higher....

Syd 13:05 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:00 GMT July 2, 2007
All to do with yield.
thats right all to do with yields !!

London NYAM 13:01 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
raising sl on eurusd short to 1.3619 bid

Sydney ACC 13:00 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 12:44 GMT July 2, 2007
Still 80% of NSW drought declared, all this rain we got was mainly coastal, but did get as far as Goulburn.
Aussie and Kiwi unbelievable.
AUD up 8.3% this year and Kiwi 9.6%.
Aussie started the year at 0.7896, Kiwi is almost at that level.
Used to consider Aussie over valued at that level, now Kiwi is there.
All to do with yield.

London NYAM 12:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Long USDCHF 121.10 S/L 120.89 P/T 121.60

london tv 12:57 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
kiwi seems a one way ticket for now

Syd 12:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 12:35 Last thing I heard about the drought they are flooded out so they considered the drought problem over , just shows who can you believe heard a large buy order was what pushed the aussie earlier and while we have the distorted carry trade markets its difficult have completely clear view also the election which is in the air a real toss of the coin JIMHO

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:40 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hello all - just camo to my platform and my 7775 & 7790 sell orders are executed..
let's see if we can have a brief retrace..

London 12:38 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Jim Rogers is selling out of emerging Market bloomberg

Sydney ACC 12:35 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 12:23 GMT July 2, 2007
CBA tipping USD 89 cents top for AUD, after punting on 85.5 cents for end of June (missed out by one day) for 12 months.
Also tipping 25bp increase in August. CPI later this month has to be a shocker to warrant a change. Higher Aussie depressing imported merchandise.
I think CPI may be more of a problem next year. If the drought in the Murray Darling basin worsens there will be shortages in many staples and talk of imports required to meet shortages. If that does happen then RBA will push rates up regardless of the problems out west. There was a couple of articles about that in the weekend papers. Thing is these people could have a better lifestyle if they went to live in Adelaide where cost of living is much cheaper. That is probably the long-term solution. I live in teh Eastern Suburbs and light industry is being driven out by residential apartment development.

Makassar Alimin 12:26 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
euro's next target is Zeus's 1.3777? :)

Syd 12:23 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 12:19 cant see them wanting to push the economy over the edge same over here, may people suffering wouldnt take much artlicle in weekend SMH people being forced to sell to cover debt already. deva vous of 1990 but larger mortages.

hk ab 12:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
contraction of gbp triangle in hrly

Syd 12:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:13 GMT July 2, 2007
I dont doubt what you say , it all in the article http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/the_interview.shtml

Sydney ACC 12:19 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 12:08 GMT July 2, 2007
Agree too much evidence starting to appear that the previous rises are starting to take effect, Kings vote for a rise and closeness last time adding to pessimism in the high street.
25 bp increase and if we are to believe what's being written it may be the last.

Como Perrie 12:13 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT July 2, 2007

That's not true. I do have a friend who collaborated with Nassim and coupla years ago he was still active, even if into other academic and research things too.

hk ab 12:09 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
seems we are going to revisit 120 sooon...

Syd 12:08 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 12:05 GMT well thats what hits the hip pocket first , dont think they have the bottle to go 50bps

Sydney ACC 12:05 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 11:36 GMT July 2, 2007
Interesting how all the market related news articles in today's UK papers are bearish propertry prices and retail sales. All laying the blame on four interest rate increases.

Sydney ACC 12:05 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 11:36 GMT July 2, 2007
Interesting how all the market related news articles in today's UK papers are bearish propertry prices and retail sales. All laying the blame on four interest rate increases.

hk ab 12:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
2nd kiwi kicked in to see.

GVI john 11:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
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hk ab 11:57 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
they try to maximize their bunds profit, 167 in sight.

hk ab 11:53 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
mkt can't wait 'cos it's the last change to challenge e/j and g/j tops.

London 11:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
More London bombings on way, warns Muslim
UK Islamist leader claims Brits ready to carry out 'many attacks'
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56469

hk ab 11:47 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
the gbp might take a short break for the sake ofeur/gbp and gbp/jpy before making new highs later for goal like 2.10

hk ab 11:46 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
unless the attack is talking about the scale of 911, otherwise, dun see fx will be moved much. (Must stress no one wants to see that though). Indeed, you can't trade in those moments 'cos banks/brokers will make spread super large.

hk ab 11:42 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
will GC martin shows up and giving us more surprises?....

Syd 11:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
US MONEY WK AHEAD: Treasurys Face Subprime Vs Fed Tug O' War

The next few days could be vital as hedge funds are due to report the value of their holdings to their bankers just as Wall Street gets a first reading on the "fair value" of the subprime debt bundles seized by the Bear funds' lenders. Concerns that this could herald more problems at hedge funds with subprime exposure will keep investors on their toes.

For Michael Cloherty, chief Treasurys trading strategist at Banc of America Securities in New York, the subprime story and its fallout "are going to be the main focus."

"We also have a holiday shortened week which could exaggerate to some extent the market (moves). People who are worried that something could come out when markets are closed or volumes are thin" may be reluctant to reduce exposure to Treasurys, lending prices extra support.

London 11:13 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
More than 7.4 million household bill payments have been missed in the past six months as Bank of England rate rises hit home, new MoneyExpert.com research shows...

Around 1.23 million regular bill payments ranging from gas and electricity to mobile phones and council tax have been missed each month as household finances come under strain from rising interest rates.

London NYAM 11:04 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD looking overextended short 1.3580 s/l 1.3609
target 1/2 1.3546.

Makassar Alimin 11:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
HK 10:54 GMT July 2, 2007

dont count on news like that anymore
i like to see this as general dollar weakness, check the usd index, previous low should be tested this week and looks to be the case (just a matter of time)

hk ab 10:56 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
short half kiwi .7780, half waiting 7789. all stop @ 30 pips higher.

HK 10:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
uk bomb scare seems to have no effect on cable. ..weak dollar?

London NYAM 10:53 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
AUDUSD Pattern alert. Check 15min charts. Breakout or down crit point approaching.

Makassar Alimin 10:47 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
with euro going to 1.37 i think cable will also go to 2.04, how it will go there i'll leave that to the market

Syd 10:43 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
In the short term though, Japanese investors are expected to repatriate some cash from the euro zone, where a bumper 29.5 billion euros' worth of bond redemptions and a further 14.5 billion euros of coupon payments are due this week.

Overstretched positioning -- with speculative yen shorts hitting record highs according to the latest weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission -- also helped the yen.

"Yen shorts are at record highs, so some profit taking ... is not too surprising. There are massive redemptions (bond) this week in the euro zone while net issuance is very weak and this suggests that probably there will be some repatriation into yen," said Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

hk ab 10:33 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
bc, may I ask, what will be the scenario look likeif usd index close under 80 daily basis? what' will be the next station then?

hk ab 10:23 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Seldom have a chance in l/t wise that USD is weakened to all the majors simultaneously, i.e. eur, jpy and gbp.

hk ab 10:12 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
we are not far away from the 80 benchmark

London 10:07 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Welcome to a post-bubble wasteland left over after risking too much – and losing it all. Tokyo's credit-fuelled mania found its top nearly two decades ago. If you're expecting today's Anglo-Saxon bubble in debt to end quickly and pain-free, just take a look at Japan.http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31452/japans-post-bubble-depression-is-a-warning-to-us-.html

hk ab 10:00 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
like other pairs, mkt wants to see if ECB can tolerate 1.3660 broken.

hk ab 09:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
why all friends here disappear? It's only a HK holiday...

Helsinki iw 09:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
No, but buyers of Ferraris and fine wines in the USA will.

hk ab 09:46 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Will europe feel any pain if eur trades abov 1.4?

HK Kevin 09:10 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, forget to mention. Also short NZD earlier at 0.7771 with 20 pips stop.

HK Kevin 09:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, need to go now. See you tonight

HK Kevin 08:57 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, not yet. Keep my stop.

hk ab 08:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
just 100 pips for historical high for eur, not v. far away.

hk ab 08:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, did you give up that gbp short?

HK Kevin 08:49 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Smell sth wrong of USD with EUR trades above 1.3570.

hk ab 08:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
m move entry of kiwi short 7785, slightly higher

hk ab 08:17 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
gbp suffered from both eur/gbp and gb/jp crosses

Syd 08:07 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN CREDIT:Japan iTraxx Wider On Terrorism In UK
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's credit default swap spreads were pushed wider Monday, market participants judging the recent terrorist attacks in Britain will push overseas credit spreads wider.

The iTraxx Japan Series 7 50-name index traded at 21 basis points, 21.5, 21.25, 21 and 21.125, its highest levels since April, and about five basis points above its lowest traded level of 15.875 in mid-May.

"There is anticipation that Europe will be weaker after the attack in Glasgow, but we'll see how Europe reacts on the opening," said a trader at a foreign securities firm.

He recommended going long protection (selling CDS) in the current environment, as he thinks spreads will tighten back down.

Monday trading was mainly in the iTraxx indexes, not in single names.

The iTraxx Japan Series 7 80-name index traded at 20.75, 21.25, 21.5, 21.25 and 21 twice.

Takayuki Atake, an analyst at Nikko Citigroup, said the fundamentals of most Japanese companies other than those in the consumer finance sector continue to improve. He recommended buying cash bonds and selling CDS protection in case Japanese spreads widen along with overseas markets.

Still, he thinks now is the time to sell protection, saying there is a bit more widening to come.

London 07:50 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Ten Years After Asian Crisis, Risks Remain - ADB Forum
Asia has moved forward after the 1997 financial crisis, but surging capital flows still pose a risk and require closer economic cooperation, the Asian Development Bank and government economic managers said Monday at a forum to mark the 10th anniversary of the crisis.
"In the near future, the prospects of economic growth in the U.S. and the world, global payments imbalance, and the pace of unwinding global liquidity pose risks and challenges to the Asian economic outlook," Kuroda said at the forum.

Vilnius 07:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
time sell gbp/usd...2.0120

hk ab 07:42 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
oilman, your last bird hit the target!

hk ab 07:41 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
mkt behaving like last Fri when dlr/cad hit the jackpot....

wellington am 07:39 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Long AUD/NZD good R/R for position players at these levels.

Syd 07:36 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
The net short JPY position, meanwhile, grew to $19.1B from $16.4B. "This represents a new extreme net short JPY position," ABN Amro bank says. New long positions in the GBP reached a new all-time high of $12.0B.

hk ab 07:30 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
it's very thin with hk holiday.

hk ab 07:20 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
ACC//Today, I read an interesting newspaper article talking about new Chinese stocks client reducing.....Hopefully, these newbies have not put too much wealth into different "investment" company to invest for them.

Sydney ACC 07:17 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:55 GMT July 2, 2007
Take care each time the crosses have dipped the Japanese retail market has seen it as an opportunity to buy at lower levels.

hk ab 07:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
the eur/gbp long starts the game now.

hk ab 07:04 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
gb made a clean key hour reversal

hk ab 07:03 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
yen crosses usualy find major targets well in 4 hrs and daily chart

hk ab 06:56 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
gb/jp freebie 246 then 244.

hk ab 06:55 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
my only concern is whether this yen unwinding will have a round 3 or not....

Gen dk 06:55 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 06:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry typo haps=japs

hk ab 06:51 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
know what many haps have a fatty summer holiday and thank for the grannies to attract the whole world join the carry trade.

USA Zeus 06:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:45 GMT July 2, 2007
ab-

Hehe- Well done on eyeing the yen. Kudos!
cheers

hk ab 06:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
next station is 246

hk ab 06:45 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
watch gb/jp show.... I think Zeus has all these in his mind.

hk ab 06:35 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//There are too many wild cards in this pair.

ONe of them, but probably not many have noticed are the double tops in various charts on gb/jp

HK Kevin 06:34 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
If Cable 8-hr chart close under 2.0080, I will move s/l to entry.

HK Kevin 06:30 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, you are working so hard on holiday. Limit order short cable at 2.0110 hit.

hk ab 06:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
yen looks quite vigorous

hk ab 06:18 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
seems unwinding of carry 2nd round is in due course.

hk ab 06:15 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
maybe BOE is going to hike 50 bps....

hk ab 06:11 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Purk//Do you have an easier to understand version of the move on last Fri on dlr/cad @ 1.05? TIA.

hk ab 06:10 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
small limit to short kiwi 7777

madrid mm 05:59 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
BoJ Tankan June survey, Big manufacturers DI at 23.0, in line with market, and unchanged from 23.0 in March. Big non-manufacturers DI at 22.0, also in line with market expectation.

BoJ Tankan: Big firms seen FY07/08 capex at +7.7%, Japan big manufacturers see USD averaging 114.40 for FY07/08, recurring profit at +0.2%.

BoJ Hidetoshi Kamezaki says in Mainichi Shimbun interview that BoJ should promptly take action once it is confirmed growth is set to continue.

German MoF official says federal net new borrowing will fall to EUR12.8bln next year and budget will be in balance by 2011, for the first time in 40 years - Reuters.

Peugoet Chief Christian Streiff says strong EURO is hurting Europeans exporters. Thinks monetary imbalance between Europe and Japan is higher than 30%.

T: 5 people were on Sunday under arrest as part of a fast-moving investigation into 3 failed car bomb attacks in the UK by suspected Islamist terrorists - as the US indicated it would step up security on flights to and from Britain.

UK Home Office has raised the national threat level to critical, the highest on a five-rung scale, indicating another attack could happen soon.

WSJ: Investors in two Bear Stearns hedge funds will have to wait until as late as July 16 to learn how much money they have lost.

All eyes on JPY today on the closely watched BoJ tankan, which came in on the dot with no surprises, with big manufacturing DI at +23, and big non manufacturing DI at +22.

The in line with expectation BoJ Tankan helped triggered some USD/JPY, Cross/JPY buying as the data indicated BoJ will not have to "rush" with an August rate hike. USD/JPY edged up to 123.28 from 123.15, before coming off again on Japanese selling.

Topside ran into good selling from Japanese houses, with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD weighed on expected of huge Eurozone coupons and redemption this month, starting today. There are some EUR9.7bln from Italy today, and huge EUR34.6bln on Wednesday, July 4, mainly out of Germany, and Finland, with some EUR10bln worth of coupons on Wednesday.

EUR/JPY hit day lows of 166.45, after failure to test Friday's all time highs 166.94, bids at 166.20-30, stops blw 166.20/166. USD/JPY offers from exporters 123.40-50, bids 122.80, stops below.

EUR/USD seen weighed by EUR/JPY selling, after hitting 1-m highs of 1.3547, speculation of Sovereign/ options offers at 1.3550/ 1.36.

AUD/USD hit fresh 18-yr highs of 0.8538, whike Kiwi rallied to post float 22-year highs of 0.7759, with no signs of RBNZ, as funds, real money continue to buy high yielders.

Cable to 10-wk highs 2.0101 on large Dutch buying, little impact on UK terror threats, with focus on the 26-year highs of 2.0134, bids at 2.0050, EUR/GBP offers 0.6750, with focus on likely BoE MPC rate hike this Thursday to 5.75%.

Nikkei +0.20% or 36.94pts at 18.175. JGBs back down after rising on the BoJ tankan. 10-yr yield +0.010% at 1.880%

August NYMEX crude oil a touch lower in Asia on profit-taking, -$0.27 at $70.41 after rallying >$1 on Friday to 10-m highs.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.96/123.28, EUR/USD 1.3530/1.3547, GBP/USD 2.0061/2.0101, USD/CHF 1.2204/1.2226, AUD/USD 0.8478/0.8538, NZD/USD 0.7708/0.7760.

USA Zeus 05:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Closed out remaining GBP/USD for +118.
tchau for now.

hk ab 05:54 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
where are the stops? LOL...

hk ab 05:52 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
option strike dash in gbp?

London 05:46 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
This was dated 05, took them a long time to get the picture in the West.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/8218/europes_angry_muslims.html

hk ab 05:44 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
any kiwi bears left?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:31 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:45 GMT June 29, 2007
Remember US holiday (4 of July) coming up and terrorist jitters will probably hold the $ bulls from making any major moves at this point IMHO. Peace and GT

Ouch those words rang a bell in England over the weekend and I REALLY hope it is over for now but I could not count on it yet. This is when the terrorist love to strike and put fear in the hearts of their enemies as they put it. Meanwhile Eur/usd pair is testing the key resistance (3560-70) with out much conviction in these mixed and troubled times. I hope that everyone enjoys the Holidays peacefully. Peace and GT

Syd 05:02 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Despite JGB yield rise, pension funds cited as buyers of 10-, 20-year cash bonds, says Japan bank trader; "they bought longer-end bonds to lengthen duration of their portfolios" in regular buying move. 10-year yield +1 bp at 1.880% after brief fall to 1.855%, 20-year +1 bp at 2.245% after falling to 2.225%.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:55 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
TODAY’s FX Trading Forecasts are now available to
my Subscribers and Trialists.

Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 04:50 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:42 yes read that its in the WSJ also

Sydney ACC 04:42 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
The cover article in this week's, "Economist America still Number 1"

Beautiful line:

If America were a stock, it would be a “buy”: an undervalued market leader, in need of new management.

hk ab 04:40 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
With so many "real" terror threats in UK, the gbp doesn't tank and the PMs don't rise made a lots of food for thoughts.

Halifax CB 04:23 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Budapest Z 02:05 GMT July 2, 2007
Haven't followed Empirica, but he does say in his books his favorite investment method is 80-90% safe (things that whose behaviour we know about enough to predict), 20-10% extreme (like Microsoft, early 80's). It's a good interview (from an intro level POV), BTW...

Syd 03:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
S&P Reports Rise In Arrears On Australian RMBS
Prime residential mortgage loans more than 90 days in arrears rose to 0.47% in April 2007, which is equal to the highest level ever recorded.

houston fl 02:48 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
put some short on euro looking unsure of an upward move stop 1.3558

Syd 02:32 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei Quick survey of 177 institutional JGB investors shows about 75% expect August BOJ rate hike, while 22% predict move in September or later, only 3% forecast tightening this month. Survey also shows 47% expect Japan ruling coalition to lose Upper House majority by 5 or fewer seats at July 29 election, while 33% predict loss of majority by over 5 seats; if ruling coalition loses majority, 58% expect drop in Japan shares, 59% project weaker JPY and 45% (biggest ratio) expect JGBs to consolidate

Syd 02:22 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Australian inflation up 0.2% on month in June vs 0.1% rise in May, according to TD Securities' inflation gauge; rising fruit prices, dwelling rents, holiday travel and accommodation behind increase. Annual inflation pace 2.6%, which well within RBA's 2%-3% target band.

Syd 02:21 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Split Bk Of England Likely To Tighten In July-GS


0143 GMT [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs says Bank of England minutes revealed substantial differences within MPC, with decision to not raise carried by 5-4 majority; governor King among those in favor of hike. "Those voting against a move appeared to do so with varying degrees of conviction and, for at least one of the majority, the decision seems to have hinged on a desire not to surprise markets." Says with most of hike priced in for July, hard to find reason to prevent MPC from raising. Adds, "Relative to the MPC, we are more pessimistic on future demand growth and less concerned by inflation. We expect official rates to be cut again next year."

Budapest Z 02:05 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
here is my 2 cents on Taleb for what it's worth...
his words on black swan events and the idea that people always want to rationalize and explain the unexpected and how it was coming etct etc..i give him that, but it is nothing new and revolutionary. Humans are the kind of animals that want to see/believe that everything happens for a reason...so the story goes. However applying his "theory" (if u can call it that) to finance is flawed and ridiculous. Essentially buying deep OTM puts and calls (to simplify his strategy) in expectation that the big one will hit eventually...the long awaited black swan. How is it different from buying lottery tickets? ( i know i know it doesnt have a negative expected value but i brought it up to simplify the concept) Well, let me tell you, you will bleed to death waiting for it. Buying something, which has a miniscule probability of happenning but huge payoff will cost you dearly in the long run. And one more thing to add, he is also making a big assumption that these options are underpricing that event...and I think that is a big assumption. If I recall correctly his fund Empirica did not do that well and is probably closed down. But you can always tell your investors, hey trust me after I lost 95% of your money, give me another 100, the big one will hit eventually...and guess what... he is right....it will hit....WELL...one day :))) gl

nyc 02:03 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 02:01 GMT July 2, 2007
Tell someone who cares....goodnight,,,,,,

Monaco Oil man 02:01 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Wrote up the weekly target..

Currently flat looking to enter, question is ,will the market be gentle enough to retrace or have to buy highs...

Good night.

Syd 00:58 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:56 extremely, really worth listening to the whole interview I found it quite facinating

USA Zeus 00:56 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT July 2, 2007

Thx for the link Syd. Taleb's black swan paradoxical work is truly fascinating.

cheers

Syd 00:45 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS Interesting interview worth listneing to if you get a moment
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, philosopher of randomness and chance, financial investor and writer, talks to Owen Bennett-Jones on The Interview.
Owen Bennett-Jones and Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb is a former Wall Street trader who made his fortune in the crash of 1987. Since then he's been an academic, researching the randomness of history, and in particular those inexplicable and unpredictable big events - like wars, tsunamis, terrorist attacks, the rise of the internet - which change our world forever, and which he calls Black Swans.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/the_interview.shtml

USA Zeus 00:30 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
trader asked a question:

I have been searching far and wide for a trader who can define a trend. None have lived up to the task...I have read piles of books and none have been able to answer my question either.


Ed Seykota answered:

Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist. Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now. Furthermore, The methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend. Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.

Syd 00:01 GMT July 2, 2007 Reply   
think thats taking it a little toooooo far !!!

Lecturer shot his wife dead when their house failed to sell
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=465279&in_page_id=1770

 




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