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Forex Forum Archive for 07/03/2007

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Syd 23:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Interesting interivew on ASIA SQUAWK BOX Say NZ using Japan to out Source their economy through carry Trades and there is a great risk as a financial Crisis arising with a property maket collapse and a current account Deficit running at over 9% GDP and that investors should be very concerned. Japan is supporting the Kiwi through carrytrades very precarious , they say when not if Japan start raising rates the Kiwi and economly will be hit

Syd 23:32 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Australia June Performance Of Services Index -1.2 Vs May
Australia's services sector recorded slower growth in June, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Wednesday shows.

The Australian Industry Group-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index fell 1.2 points in June from May to 54.9.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the official overnight cash rate at 6.25% on Wednesday, following a decision taken at a monthly board meeting Tuesday.

Gen dk 23:27 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:33 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
With RBA universally expected to keep rates steady at 6.25% today, May trade balance is focus for market. If RBC's A$1.4 billion deficit on-month forecast is realized, AUD/USD will be vulnerable to a test of 0.8510 at least, Trinh says. Data due 0130 GMT

USA BAY 22:16 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks a lot for the view. gt/gl

Syd 22:07 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Japan Plastic Prices Highest Since End Of Bubble Econ -Nikkei
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Prices of the four major synthetic resins are trading at the highest since the end of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s because of soaring costs for crude oil, The Nikkei reported in its Wednesday morning edition.

New Zealands Employment Confidence Index fell to 128.4 in the second quarter from 131 in the first - back to levels at the end of 2006 when jobs grew at 1.5% a year.

"Employees are clearly more guarded about the future employment situation," Westpac Bank economist Donna Purdue said. "But the concern is primarily in the form of job security and future job opportunities, rather than earnings," she said.

Syd 21:56 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened Tuesday to seize companies and privately owned clinics that refuse to lower prices in response to a cut in the value added tax.

"Retailers must lower prices. That's when I say that those who do not (lower their prices) we close their business, we expropriate it," Chavez said during a televised speech in which he gave details of his recent trip to Russia, Belarus and Iran. "That's the kind of private sector that we cannot accept." The president had threatened clinics with nationalization before. He has also threatened to nationalize meat industry businesses, cement companies, and banks if they fail to follow his socialist ideas.

"The true human beings march on the road to socialism," Chavez said. The leftist leader has often referred to capitalism as "the road to censored."


Syd 21:54 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Japan Listed Cos See 37% Surge In Interest, Div Income-Nikkei


TOKYO (Nikkei)--Publicly traded Japanese companies pocketed roughly Y1.8 trillion in interest income and dividends on a consolidated basis in fiscal 2006, up 37% on the year.
The increase was spurred by high overseas interest rates and a cheap yen. The data covered 1,748 nonfinancial companies, excluding those listed on the three start-up markets.
Manufacturers saw their net interest and dividend income hit Y26 billion, a turnaround from fiscal 2005's Y119.5 billion interest expense, net of dividend and interest income. This marks the first time they have been in the black since consolidated reporting became the norm in fiscal 1999.
data compiled by The Nikkei, according to a report in its Wednesday morning edition.

London NYAM 21:48 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:32 GMT July 3, 2007
short term i prefer a test of lows prior to a test of highs so we test 245.88 and 245.43 (favorite level) and 244.88 then, if they hold we move higher.
My preference is for the energy to come from GBPUSD correction as stated in previous post not from JPY strengthening. Following all this im expecting more carry-fear tug of war with carry winning one final battle at the cost of JPY of course.
glgt

Syd 21:45 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. (8830.TO) and four other major real estate firms had a combined Y998.1 billion properties under construction as of March 31, up 55% over a year earlier, But specialized condominium developers are the ones driving the construction boom. According to a survey by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., 16 condo builders, including Daikyo Inc. (8840.TO) and Towa Real Estate Development Co. (8834.TO), had a total of roughly Y1 trillion in projects under construction.

"The combined condo supply capacity of major and specialized developers is reaching record levels, making price increases difficult," Credit Suisse analyst Yoji Otani says. "Profitability is likely to suffer because of rising land prices and construction costs."
The Nikkei reported in its Wednesday morning edition.

Syd 21:41 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Independence Day holiday, relative illiquidity in FX market may provide another opportunity for RBNZ to intervene to cap NZD, says Bank of New Zealand in report; notes talk in market that RBNZ may have been selling Kiwi yesterday. Adds RBNZ's first intervention June 11 was done during Australian public holiday when trading was thin. NZD/USD tapped yet another post-float peak of 0.7843 in U.K. session overnight before pulling back, last 0.7811

LKWD JJ 21:37 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
we might be at the end of the rate hiking cycle as higher rates will cause worse problems for the sub prime industry. which banks arent holding a little if not alot of that paper?

Syd 21:30 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
FSA to warn on UK subprime mortgages - report
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The UK's financial regulator will this week sound a warning over the country's subprime mortgage market, which lends to people with poor credit records, the Financial Times said without citing sources.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/07/03/afx3880106.html

'Long, slow house price collapse'
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0703/houses.html

Syd 21:25 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Italease blow-up stokes derivatives fears
A derivative blow-up at the Italian bank Italease has sent tremors through Milan's banking fraternity and exposed the hidden dangers of exotic credit instruments.The troubles in Italy came amid fresh problems for US hedge funds linked to the subprime property crash. United Capital Markets, which has funds of $620m, said it had suspended redemptions from its Horizon Strategy hedge funds after a sudden exodus by investors
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/03/bcnitaly103.xml

USA BAY 20:32 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Could I have your view on gbp/jpy please, tia

LKWD JJ 19:14 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
HEARD ON BLOOMBERG suspicious package found in heathrow terminal 4 shut down for 5 hrs. 100 BA flights cancelled. its their main terminal . since reopened.

Sofia mik 18:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
long small eur/gbp,aud /kiwi!

Break time trade to september 'end
gl/gt to all !

Bon Air VA Dennis 17:56 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:39 GMT

no mention on TFN/AFX

LKWD JJ 17:39 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
any details ? which news service?

PAR 17:26 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
All european BA fligths to Heatrow cancelled .

London NYAM 16:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
JJ// Too late for that.
My garden is a foot deep in water and covered in ice pebbles.
I see GBP is comming off as a show of God-fearingness though ;)

LKWD JJ 16:33 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
london maybe time to repent

London NYAM 16:24 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
We just got hit with a hail storm that ive never seen anything like in London before. Bibical.

Gen dk 16:21 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 15:42 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
closed for +10 only, too slow..maybe better to go and do something else today

Makassar Alimin 14:24 GMT July 3, 2007
intraday position usdchf limit short 1.2163, stop 1.2187 target open, looking to close the trade today if not stopped out

LKWD JJ 15:12 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT July 3, 2007
any idea if the Housing data in14:00 gmt will catalyse any movement?

similar to a tree falling in the forest .it might make noise but theres nobody around to hear it.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
jf // tnx for advice - I watch with great interest how nimble you are in spotting the right direction and managing the trade

nj jf 15:05 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT July 3, 2007
also i suggest with each strategy/method you figure out whats the optimum s/l with that method. because thats also a part of making money how much are you risking to how much you are making. as vol rises then your ability to expand the range makes it better, when vol declines you need to shut down the positions faster and use tighter stops as your return will be lower. all things to consider when making a long term success of this business ... gl

Monaco Oil man 15:01 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Think NZD and AUD will have some struggle up here , due to their jpy crosses..

Daily close below 95.40 and things could start shaking out.

delray beach RMN 14:59 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Monaco, currently short aud/jpy at 105. and looking for your view on this trade, all comments appreciated

Mtl JP 14:57 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 13:58 / on closer exam, Lion thing is a FAKE. This page is a fake news report wrapped in a BBC page, this is done using public API (programming interface) available on the web. Try to get the article direct from the BBC web site, you'll never find it. It is very well done.

We ve been had: Kudos to the prankster !

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:55 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
I remember soem time ago London Gooner wrote that if entering a trade based on MA cross - one have to wait for the price to get back to the cross and then go in the direction..

so on hourly USDCHF - the 20 and 50 MAs are about to cross somewhere in the 1.2140/50 area - so as it has retreated from the 78 to 47 it is ok for Long trade..

Monaco Oil man 14:54 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:52 GMT July 3, 2007

Currently short NZD 7840.
gt.

HK Kevin 14:54 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
To be honest, I 'm one of the traders who bets on strong USD last week. This ended up with being stop twice for ~90 pips on short Cable.

hk ab 14:52 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you even prefer to try some short this week?
like kiwi could be the best choice.

Monaco Oil man 14:52 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Think we got the real big trend vs $ December 4 2002, Long 9920 E$ (which disappeared in the archives) but still have that post below..
That's really when US$ turned around and started downside acceleration..


UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x �
Then 1.0450
Then 1.16+
1.12
1.26
the coccoon is ready to mature!

madrid mm 14:51 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
RBA rate decision will be the main focus in the coming Asia session. RBA is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.25%.

HK Kevin 14:46 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:38 GMT, my friend. It all depends on how you define mid term. USD has been in a downtrend since end of 2000

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:33 GMT

born last Friday? ridiculous! USD has been in a bear trend since this past October.

Monaco Oil man 14:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:33 GMT July 3, 2007

Think we have too much weak longs to continue right now vs the US$..

Probably a quick shake(£ 19990-20090) before new high's are seen (in GBP, EUR, nzd, AUD).

GT.

HK Kevin 14:33 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Amidst the hope of traders who bet on USD strengths, the mid term USD bear market was born last Fri

Makassar Alimin 14:24 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
intraday position usdchf limit short 1.2163, stop 1.2187 target open, looking to close the trade today if not stopped out

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:16 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
spot: Lions 1, midgets -42 rotflmao

Mtl JP 14:14 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 13:58 / not too different from trading in forex: angry fan, Sihamoni's pride... both emotions, not logique.

Maybe they read Wesley Moons, a psychologist at the University of California at Santa Barbara, and his colleague Diane Mackie's Anger Fuels Better Decisions study in which they supposedly found that - detailed in this month’s issue of the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin - anger helps people focus on the cues that matter most to making a rational decision and ignore cues that are irrelevant to the task of decision-making.

Possible grounds for litigation ?

Halifax CB 14:10 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 13:58 GMT July 3, 2007
I dunno, I feel a lot of sympathy for the fighting league, as a retail trader.....

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:04 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
hi -tnx _ I'm quite close to it actually

San Juan Lil 14:02 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kapricorn
I wasn´t actually referring to you personally. What I would reccommend is to join Monaco Oil Man´s service ASAP, and follow his lead. You will make a bundle and learn from a REAL pro.

Spotforex NY 13:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   

Here is a story that defies logic...


http://www.fmft.net/archives/BBC_NEWS.htm

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
yes martingale is more gambling style
but since i'm not good in identifying trends from the outset and even worse in fading them i try to find a way to survive - miserable but some way...

Sydney ACC 13:50 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Chainsaw victim puts hand in fridge

An Adelaide man accidentally cut his hand off with a chainsaw and then put it in a fridge until help arrived, the ambulance service says.

The man, from the southern suburb of Hackam West, phoned for help about 2pm (CST) today saying he had accidentally cut off his hand two hours before, a South Australian Ambulance spokeswoman said.

He told the service he had put the severed hand in the fridge until he could phone for help, she said.

The man was conscious when the ambulance arrived and was taken to the Flinders Medical Centre, where he was admitted for emergency surgery.

San Juan Lil 13:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone........
I call it risking a lot and hoping to gain a little

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:29 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
JP //
yes I know - I was just referring to the averaging strategy ..

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 13:09 / zeus was not buying cad, he was selling it. Buying dlrcad means you buy the first mentioned currency and sell the second one in the pair. Think he calls it "exponentiallism".

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:21 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
this is of favor to the USD buyers side I guess:

1303 GMT [Dow Jones] The Comex leading Aug. gold contract, near $658.60, is stalled at $661.00 resistance, which is the technical breakout point on the daily chart. The contract's technical momentum - its rate of uptrend - is edging lower and that's the setup for downtrend to $652.50 support, which charts say may be a prominent intraday low.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:09 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Dennis & Alimin // thanks!
more important from your comments I feel is that the range today might not be much more wider..

jus trying to manage my short nzdusd trade.. since my netry is 7804 (average) I was thinking this strategy:
lighten at 20 then add above 30...

just try to come up with some idea how to manage a trade that went bad withour just closing it with loss - because if I close lower then I add the same margin with a relatively smaller loss - and in the same time moving my short entry higher..

it resembles a bit Zeus' buying the cad a month ago.. but I can't even do this since every time it goes under 7820 I think it will go to B/E ..
anyway - sorry for too much writing - just share what I try to do - I personally think it's not great strategy but thinks change and I try to find for myself whether I fixed stop is better or gradual scaling with some mind level where one must just close or reverse (while actively dragging entry up as described)

HK REVDAX 13:08 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 10:42//The special for today in the Sichuen restaurant is selling euro, not buying it.

Monaco Oil man 12:56 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
There's some news coming out, which on low liquid days might make a break...

See 1.3644 as upside break out , and 1.3575 as downside(e$)..Though might just be a slow day..

Good trades.

Makassar Alimin 12:48 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT July 3, 2007

most probably we have seen the range for today in most pair ahead of US holiday, so I am not expecting a mover, could be wrong of course..

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT

kappi, this is a very minor report that of late has been hyped as important. if the mkt chooses to "make" it an "event" then it will be but it is a very vague indicator and has a not very long or reliable track record. much like the ADP jobs indicator . the pending sales number simply reflects contracts placed and in many cases these will not go to settlement because of financing or other issues that must be negotiated.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:31 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
any idea if the Housing data in14:00 gmt will catalyse any movement?

GVI john 11:50 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Como Perrie 11:45 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
tks

Bon Air VA Dennis 11:41 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:27

yesterday was Canada Day (July 1 - celebrated Mon July 2), just for the record.

London NYAM 11:36 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
m/t outlook (ie 1 to 4 weeks) for eurusd, is better than gbpusd. both are buys but the range fo euro apears to be higher judging by its gradual build up. gbp is in (imo) an ending diagonal (or wedge if you like). first of the three waves is complete and we are now in the second. mimimum target should be about 2.0058 but good chance we get as far as 1.9928. Catalyst likely to be sell the news on Thursday.

Como Perrie 11:27 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
So here we are entering the day ahead of the US holiday. Independence day. Activity is slow in general, with some concerns lagging yet behind. Earlier we had some interesting japanese speakers that made some onto the yen side again, but with no significant moves behinds. All looks steady, except maybe for oil which in asia traded around the 72 bucks. US 10 years bond yields am looking for chances to taste the support around 4.9 later on. Some carry dismantling earlier during aseand and european hours moved also some prices in favour of the usd, beside the yen back ahead of holidays. Btw today is also holiday in canada. So presumably the activity will be rather small, except ...

have a good day ahead

Manchester SA 11:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Macao Sofia

Is where the GBP is now qualify as a 'dip' for you?

Regards to all

Macao Sofia 11:07 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
GBP is buy on dips mode with target 2.058.

slv sam 10:42 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Any euro buyers at 3560sh?GT

Cali mmm 10:23 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oilman.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:22 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
the EUR & GBP retreat from recent highs must put pressure on the surge in AUD and NZD - I guess - of course correlations are not tight there but a bit os USD buying might help fading the commodity ccys trends..

Cali mmm 10:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oilman. Can you share your short terms targets for your positions on NZDUSD and GBP$ >>>>> ? Thank you!

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:03 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
OM - tnx 4 this update -

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:39 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
btw NZDJPY 4 h chart has some easing in the top like it has a slowing momentum before a reversal - just an observation..

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:26 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
just observing that $/Y and majors are not making any significant moves - AUD is also very slow - the only movement is in the NZDJPY which drags NZDUSD to 7840..
where is intervention now:)

London 08:59 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Suspect Package In Ldn, Controlled Explosion Due -Reuters

Syd 08:45 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
UK bank trader says a prime US bank has been selling cable from 2.0160 has still has more to go by the looks of it. The rate is currently trading at 2.0150 from the day's and 26 year high of 2.0193. Next major support for the rate comes in at 2.0072.

Syd 08:42 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Bini Smaghi: Any Forex Move Must Be Done With U.S. And Japan
The euro area is better placed than the U.S. or Japan to "influence" foreign exchange markets, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Tuesday. "The structure in place in the euro area is in my view a more efficient one," he said in a speech.
Bini Smaghi's remarks follow complaints by French and Italian politicians at the strength of the euro, which has hit record highs against the yen in recent weeks and remains historically high against the dollar Any official intervention in foreign exchange markets would have to be done in concert with U.S. and Japanese authorities, he said. The ECB has intervened in the past, Bini Smaghi said. In autumn 2000, the ECB took the initiative, albeit after consulting U.S. and Japanese officials, in an effort to boost the euro which had sunk against the dollar following its launch. For foreign exchange market intervention to be effective it must be consistent with domestic policyaction, it has to be done in conjunction with officialsrom the other major-currency nations, and it has to be explained to the market, Bini Smaghi said.


Syd 08:38 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
EUR slides back again to $1.3607 as ECB's Bini Smaghi acknowledges that currency intervention can work but that it is best done in coordination with the US and Japan. His comments follow more recent criticism about the EUR's strength from Italy and France with French President Nicolas Sarkozy repeating his criticism that the single currency is overvalued. It remains unclear whether the market is interpreting Bini Smaghi's comment as any sort of threat.

Como Perrie 08:26 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
and then BOJ's Muto says is happy with current sustainable growth.

Which then is the BOJ's market view stays yet some of a dilemma, but hard to not think of sort of steppened rises in the next quarters ahead to smooth yen losses in a possibly controlled manner.

Como Perrie 08:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Nishimura just said that the bank of japan should not wait too long to raise interest rates

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:56 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
yes I've got it then..
it just went a little away from my original idea for this trade..

nyc 07:49 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn,...this was directed to your earlier post..it pays to read...may be i should have re - posted this after the move occurs..g.t

nyc 23:19 GMT July 2, 2007
,,Ask your friend Purky...he knows,,,,,

Gen dk 07:44 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
SAS //
yes exactly the same with me...

Makassar Alimin 07:21 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 07:07 GMT July 3, 2007

those that want to do something, cannot do anything..and those that can do something, do nothing about it...so there we go,life goes on :)

Mumbai SAS 07:20 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:15 GMT July 3, 2007

I have a short at 7810 .. have been watching the kiwi all asian session and it is being reluctant ... a retrace is evident but i hope it is not after it takes my stop out ;) ... GL

Syd 07:20 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Japan Takenaka: Fin Ministry "Uncomfortable" With Yen Level
BOJ Muto:Upward Pressure On Wages To Rise On Tight Labor Mkt BOJ Muto: Inflationary Pressure May Remain In U.S.
The CAD's rise to a 30-year high against the USD may have taken it as far as it can go. With new data suggesting that Canadian growth is faltering, rate expectations may need to be scaled back at the same time that M&A inflows show signs of trailing off.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:15 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
kiwi very stubbornly staying at 7818/22

Syd 07:07 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Homeowners feeling rate pain
Pain in the suburbs
Already, last year's rate rises are hurting Australians.
A NEWS.com.au conducted in June has revealed 42 per cent of respondents said their financial situation was worse than it was one year ago. The survey of of 1778 people found 5 per cent of respondents had sold properties because they could not afford to keep up with higher loan payments. One in four respondents said they were just managing to make ends meet while 17 per cent of respondents said they were running into debt.And 70 per cent of lower income earners said the last three interest rate rises had made it harder to make property loan repayments

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22009807-5001024,00.html

HK [email protected] 07:07 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
FWIW

Yen's weakness becomes worrisome!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/02/business/bxatm.php

LOOKS WHOM TALK. Can you trust any of those????????
----------------------------------------------------------
TOKYO: Several top Japanese manufacturers say they are concerned that the yen's slump to a 22-year low is too much of a good thing for Japanese exporters.

Nissan Motor, the third-biggest carmaker behind Toyota and Honda in Japan, cannot afford to rely on exchange rates to compete, its chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, said. The Canon chairman, Fujio Mitarai, head of the largest business lobby in the country, and Masamitsu Sakurai, the Ricoh president, leader of the biggest executive group, said the yen's drop was becoming a concern.

London 07:02 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
The Scottish police have removed a car from outside a Glasgow mosque as part of their investigation into the car bombing at Glasgow airport, The BBC and Sky said on their Web sites that before the vehicle was removed, a serious of controlled explosions were carried out on it. Sky News television reported.

Syd 06:57 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Housing could hit 'crisis point' as approvals tumble
Building approvals tumbled in May as the cost of building a new home turned buyers towards the established housing market, leading to fears the housing sector will hit "crisis point" within a year.In May, building approvals fell 5.6 per cent to a 12,004 units, seasonally adjusted, to be 7.2 per cent lower than a year ago, Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed. the result surprised economists, who had expected approvals to fall 1.4 per cent during the month following the 8.1 per cent increase in April.He said both housing affordability and the rental market would be affected."Approvals are trending at an annualised completions rate of just 137,000, still well below underlying dwelling requirement of around 168,000 dwellings," Mr Braddick said.NSW posted the largest fall in building approvals in May, dropping a sharp 12 per cent, despite a 1.8 per cent rise in private sector approvals.Total building approvals were down 10 per cent in Queensland, 4.6 per cent in Tasmania, 4.4 per cent in Western Australia and 0.9 per cent in Victoria.



Syd 06:50 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Japan Ex-Minister Takenaka: Tokyo Land Prices Not A Bubble Citing soaring property prices in Singapore, Seoul and Hong Kong, he joked that Tokyo "real estate prices are not high enough." Prices aren't excessively high based on financial modeling that estimates the present value of future rent payments, he said.

Japanese land prices last year rose for the first time since the bubble economy burst in 1990, with the comeback led by urban areas, notably a Tokyo surge of 9.4%. The gains were driven by a small number of exclusive residential and commercial areas, some jumping 30%-40%.

London 06:40 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/03/cnewlook103.xml

The £1.8bn auction of New Look was last night on the brink of collapse amid claims that the sale of the fashion retailer has been scrapped.



Makassar Alimin 06:32 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 06:23 GMT July 3, 2007

agree Perrie, plus coupled with more general usd weakness
it is now under the middle BB on daily, so good r/r to short

Como Perrie 06:29 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
flat and off.. will check It out later on after It clears some if any

Como Perrie 06:23 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
I doubt this UsdJpy uppper move from 122.18 is nothing of just a prudential resetting of a larger move that has to print at least 121.50. Maybe below 120 in certain cases if the Japanese authorities clear the path for another moderate hike of rates.

madrid mm 06:20 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
BoJ Kiyohiko Nishimura says staying put on policy too long is not prudent. Policy adjustment cannot be prescheduled or occur at some fixed interval. General economic conditions in Japan now on favourable trend. Slow but steady upward pressure on prices clearly felt in markets.

Sudden change in Japan retail investors may shift FX trade direction and magnitude.

Econs Hiroko Ota says BoJ Tankan confirms corporate sector is firm, though weak capex still continuing and needed to be watched closely. BoJ to decide by monitoring economy and prices.

MoF Koji Omi says rate level is up to BoJ, economy is "solid". Wants BoJ to support economy through policy.

Japan Defence Min Fumio Kyuma resigns over "A-bomb" remarks.

Australia May retail sales disappoints, falling by -0.1%, versus market expectation of +0.7% . Also building approvals coming in weak, at -5.6%m/m, versus market poll of -1.4%.

NKS: The BoJ's increased confidence that the economy will continue to grow, based on the tankan business sentiment survey it released Monday, has boosted speculation that the central bank could raise interest rates in August or September.

President George Bush has commuted prison sentence of former US VP aide Lewis "Scooter" Libby.

NZ Herald: Investors in Bridgecorp are facing a nervous wait as receivers get to grips with the scale of the problems that led to the NZD600m finance company's failure yesterday.

USD seen finding no reprieve from selling pressure in Asia, after overnight selling on continued sub-prime fears and lower US Treasury yields, and ahead of US Independence Day holiday tomorrow, 4th July.

EUR/USD a touch weighed by EUR/JPY selling, ahead on expectation of JPY repatriation for the huge EUR34.64bln German bunds and Finnish coupons and redemption tomorrow.

EUR/USD off its 2-month highs of 1.3639 seen, just off its all time highs of 1.3681 seen in April, with interest still to buy on dips, but vulnerable on EUR/JPY sales.

USD/JPY rose on fixing demand, after dipping to 3-wk lows of 122.09 on weak USD sentiment on Tuesday, with USD/JPY higher on fixing, but capped by pair of Japanese trust banks, US investment houses and brokerages, selling from 122.40-50.

But talks of 122 option - Asian accounts, China and also Japan investors - fresh toushin, overseas investment trusts for the new H2 2007, and US hedge funds demand. Stoploss on break of 122.00, while offers capping 122.50/ 123.00.

USD/JPY also weighed on back of AUD/JPY sales after the surprise -0.1% fall in Australia retail sales, with Aussie dipping to 0.8559 from 0.8583, while AUD/NZD dipped to 17-m lows of 1.0943 after stoploss orders were hit on break of 1.0950.

AUD/USD still capped ahead of 0.8600 options, high so far 0.8599. NZD seen weighed by concerns over impact of Bridgecorp failure, with Kiwi dipping, leading to some talks of RBNZ sales- but no signs so far.

GBP capped ahead of 2.0190 options, but bid on BoE rate hike tom, interest to buy on dips.

Nikkei +35pts or 0.19% at 18,181.60, while JGBs firmer on back of US Treasuries rallies. 10-yr JGB Yield -0.030% at 1.855%.

August crude oil remains firm in Asia above key $70, but off 10-month highs, $70.89, -$0.20.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.20/122.45, EUR/USD 1.3615/1.3634, GBP/USD 2.0160/2.0185, USD/CHF 1.2093/1.2116, AUD/USD 0.8555/0.8596, NZD/USD 0.7790/0.7830.

madrid mm 06:18 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi

Sydney ACC 06:17 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Don't put rates up, say manufacturers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/02/cnrates102.xml

Como Perrie 06:15 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Morning... no big here this early..maybe some those laserometrics lovers.. btw do see this UsdJpy yet capped some as yesterday briefings.com reported some Krugman concerns over Rating agencies misinterpretations, for which all of us think mostly agree. Let's see this particular market what has in store for us todays. Have a good day ahead.


Subprime Ribs : Subprime worries go on, with NYT's Paul Krugman calling out the ratings agencies "you might have thought that S.& P. and Moody's, which gave Thailand an investment-grade rating until five months after the start of the Asian financial crisis, and gave Enron an investment-grade rating until days before it went bankrupt, would by now have learned to be a bit suspicious," regarding ratings on subprime related bundles. One large mortgage banker always on top of his game noted, "many, many, many years ago we had a policy that we would never sell bonds [to an entity from whom] we would be afraid to buy them back," so they have "stayed away from the derivatives of derivatives of derivatives." With the WSJ today noting "Hedge funds are due to mark to market this week their exposures to subprime assets as they report to their lenders," (gulp) what that means exactly in the sense of "mark-to-market" is murky. There will "likely be the dance [as in previous looming crisis'] 'Oh! Look over there!' while they" decide where that "mark" for a given instrument is. "Valuation on these things is spongy, at best, in the best of times." The good news he thinks, with the curve shallowly flat, but no longer inverted, "banks can actually have positive carry...again...for a while."

Makassar Alimin 06:13 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
asia's tiny range is a good start, could easily add 60-100 pips upside for gbp later on, same to euro could hit 1.3720

Syd 06:13 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Graham Parlane, associate director at foreign exchange trading house Tricom, said the Australian dollar could come under further pressure in the offshore session and weigh on the New Zealand dollar.

Syd 05:34 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ shares at breakeven, with strength of Telecom (TEL.NZ) offsetting effect of NZD strength, which still "dampening enthusiasm" in rest of market, says ABN AMRO Craigs adviser Alexandra Dalzell; theme may continue until data "shows some signs of slowing" in economy that could dent NZD.

Macao Sofia 03:40 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Is it too greedy to set exit order at NZD 0.8100?

Sydney ACC 03:35 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
LDN 02:39 GMT July 3, 2007
NZD 50 per hour.
Is that what the sheep charge for a date these days?
Aussie sheep come lots cheaper.

Syd 02:43 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Korea Govt: Current FX Movement Decoupled From Econ
Korea Govt: Worried About Recent Forex Movement
Korea Govt: Closely Eyeing Continued Offshore USD Sales

LDN 02:39 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Price of Lamb in NZ...a big cause of nz inflation...it is now at least $nzd50.00...PER HOUR..lol..

Syd 02:31 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
The Independent newspaper reports that a suspected militant cell linked to al-Qa'eda has been using British hospitals as cover
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/terror-plot-second-doctor-quizzed/2007/07/03/1183351169435.html

wellington am 02:13 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:07 GMT July 3, 2007

Agree re yield - but that didn't stop nzd/jpy selling off to .70 last year. Based on uridash/eurodashi repatriations, my expectation is a big sell off in September by the latest, but have started building shorts anyway. Will cover if we break through 93+ and wait for 95. Come on Bollard, use your f...... stick.

Sydney ACC 02:07 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
wellington am 02:00 GMT July 3, 2007
It's yield pure and simple 8% versus 6.25%.

Syd 02:05 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
NZ Tourism Holdings Expects Soft 1H; Outlook Clouded By NZD
New Zealand's Tourism Holdings Ltd. (THL.NZ) Tuesday said a high New Zealand dollar and interest rates are clouding its outlook, with current fiscal first half trading conditions expected to be softer than the previous year.
Tourism Holdings said it's confident about longer term trading prospects based on the assumption of more moderate values for the New Zealand dollar.

"At current levels the (New Zealand) dollar has a significant negative impact on inbound visitors' purchasing power at the group's attractions, and encourages substitution of New Zealand inbound travel by travel to other markets," it said.

The local currency has remained at elevated levels for much longer than many had expected, and rallied to a new 25-year peak of US$0.7835 in overnight trading.




Syd 02:02 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
wellington am 02:00 thats the plain truth none of the censored

Syd 02:00 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:58 circumstances masked the real data

wellington am 02:00 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
AUD/NZD - this is just silly. kiwi is way over valued here wrt the ozzy. NZ runs a large deficit with oz, with the profits of most of our major banks and business get repatriated back there. If the ozzys want more money, they just dig another hole in the ground. Look at the coal ships off Newcastle - NZ has nothing equivalent, bar a few dairy cows.

This all just feels like a technical route of NZD shorts. Sell rallys and watch the margin - esp NZD/AUD.

Syd 01:59 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian May retail sales data show expected gains from tax cuts discussed in recent budget have failed to flow through, says Dresdner Kleinwort's Adrian Foster; downward revision to April data mean spending flat for two month period, with April-May spending pattern weakest 2-month reading since October 2005. Reverses strong trend in 1Q GDP, suggests 2Q GDP growth "will be much less impressive." May building approvals also tepid and combination of data "argue against a near term rate hike from the RBA. These data points suggest increased talk of near term rate hikes over recent months has had a tightening impact already and dented spending." Inflation expected to moderate in 2Q, 3Q as adverse impact of bad weather last year on fruit and vegetable prices reverses; "this makes an RBA hike unlikely over coming months

Sydney ACC 01:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:54 GMT July 3, 2007
Well if we think May was bad wait until we get June. Especially for NSW.
All states and territories except New South Wales (-0.3%), Victoria (-0.7%) and Western Australia (-0.1%) had increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The largest increase occurred in Tasmania (+1.0%).
The state by state figures just illustrates how poorly the most populous states are performing.

Syd 01:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian Police Quizzing Second Doctor Over UK Terror Plot

Syd 01:57 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
I pick ANZ US69c

Syd 01:54 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC had afeeling about this data , some of the really strong data before covered school holidays , also better weather but I honestly cant see people being able to splash out with the cost of mortgages food and fuel, there are people really struggling , if the RBA did raise rates who ever gets in Government next will have a recession first and foremost and I know we havent got it here but the terrorism also is a dampener.

Aussie Retail Sales Surprise On Weak Side In May
Australian retail sales surprise with 0.1% fall in May vs revised 0.3% decline in April (initially had printed +0.1%); outcome misses expected increase of 0.6%. AUD/USD falls on data, to around 0.8560 vs 0.8590 beforehand though pair remains at lofty levels. Analysts may take reading as cue to RBA that another dose of monetary tightening may not be needed;

Sofia Kaprikorn 01:44 what can I say, it really depends on the information .. all I can say is at the moment we are not trading in normal times China has put a different hat on everything todo with commodities for now , if the Aud really takes a hit it would move the Kiwi but just a drift down it wont.

Sofia Kaprikorn 01:52 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
now Mark Faber is on Bloomberg

Sofia Kaprikorn 01:49 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
I added 1 position at 7819 - I view a possibility that bad data might take lower aud and nzd with it..
will have to cut above 25 however because I missed the 2 exits around 7790 and 7802.. very unfortunately that I didn't act as planned - as if I lightened there - now i would have better opportunity for trade location..

mumbai apu 01:47 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
I pick BNZ's 73c, however it will reach 69c sometime during the second half. GT

Sydney ACC 00:18 GMT July 3, 2007
Take your pick on kiwi's prospects
Year-end Kiwi forecasts

* Westpac US79c
* BNZ US73c
* ANZ US69c

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10449215

Sydney ACC 01:46 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:35 GMT July 3, 2007
AUD/USD Drops To 0.8561 From 0.8590 After Soft Retail Sales

How weak is the domestic economy now.
May expected +0.7% and April revcised from +0.1%.
This economy may not be as rosey as economists thought.
Maybe we need to abolkish capital gains tax on property investment.

Sofia Kaprikorn 01:44 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd -
sorry do you find a strong correlation between AUD & NZD?
dailyfx show some 75% on average correlation - I ask because I assume the bad AUD data caused the drop while NZD still stays above 0.78...

Syd 01:35 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Drops To 0.8561 From 0.8590 After Soft Retail Sales

Syd 01:34 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian April Retail Sales Revised To -0.3%

Syd 01:33 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Australian May Retail Sales -0.1% Vs +0.6% Consensus
Australian May ResAustralian May Pvt-Sector House Approvals Bldg Approvals -5.6% On MoAustralian May Pvt-Sector House Approvals -3.2% On Mo

Syd 01:11 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Real money accounts turning increasingly to KRW given apparent uptReal money accounts turning increasingly to KRW given apparent upturn in Korea economic prospects, possibility of monetary tightening in 2H, says StanChart; BOK still trying to jawbone but with current account back in surplus as of May and CPI edging up in June "it would appear there is room for further gradual won strength. Unlike the peso or the ringgit, this is certainly not a trade that the market has on - yet." USD/KRW technicals "collapsing" and given breach of 922.35, target is 913.10, Dec. 7, 2006 low; after that, is 900 psychological supporturn in Korea economic prospects, possibility of monetary tightening in 2H, says StanChart; BOK still trying to jawbone but with current account back in surplus as of May and CPI edging up in June "it would appear there is room for further gradual won strength. Unlike the peso or the ringgit, this is certainly not a trade that the market has on - yet." USD/KRW technicals "collapsing" and given breach of 922.35, target is 913.10, Dec. 7, 2006 low; after that, is 900 psychological support

dc CB 01:05 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
London 00:58 GMT July 3, 2007

reported in 03 as The Brown Cloud.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/culture/articles/030317/17haze_2.htm

London 00:58 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
World Bk Study Says 750,000/Yr Die In China From Pollution-FT Beijing engineered the removal of nearly a third of a World Bank report on pollution in China on concerns its findings that about 750,000 people die prematurely each year, mainly from air pollution in large cities, could provoke social unrest, the Financial Times reported on its Web site.

China's State Environment Protection Agency and health ministry asked the World Bank to cut the calculations of premature deaths from the report when a draft was finished last year, the paper reported World Bank advisers and Chinese officials as saying.

Guo Xiaomin, a retired Sepa official who co-ordinated the Chinese research team, said some material was omitted because of concerns the methodology was unreliable, the paper reported. But he also said such information on premature deaths "could cause misunderstanding."

"We did not announce these figures. We did not want to make this report too thick," he said in an interview with the FT. The pared-down report, "Cost of Pollution in China," has yet to be officially launched, the paper said.

http://www.ft.com


milan chuck 00:57 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
strange idea ... aud a littlr overdone ... let see

dc CB 00:50 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:29 GMT July 3, 2007
dc CB 00:20 GMT not as funny as you think,

Had no idea. Just struck me as to the turn of phrase, in that it was just reported in the past couple of hours that Bush pardoned Libby from any jail time. (for protecting the insiders.)

Syd 00:41 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
UK Terror Plot Suspect Doctor At Queensland Hospital-Official
State and federal police seized the man, whose name was not immediately released, at Brisbane International Airport, where he was trying to board a flight with a one-way ticket, Attorney General Philip Ruddock told reporters in the national capital, Canberra. No charges have yet been laid.

Ruddock said the man was not an Australian citizen but had been working as a registrar at the Gold Coast Hospital in eastern Queensland state. He declined to state the man's nationality.

"The individual concerned was seeking to leave Australia and I understand did not have a return ticket," Ruddock told reports. "The man is currently assisting police with their inquiries."

Police executed a number of search warrants across Queensland state overnight, including at the hospital where the man worked, but there was no sign that Australia was a possible target for attack, Ruddock said.

"There is no information that suggests that the terror alert, at medium, should be varied," he said. "While a terrorist attack could certainly be possible in Australia, we have no specific information about any such planned action here."

Syd 00:36 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Nishimura: Japan Recovery Remains On Right Track
BOJ Nishimura: Japan Household Investors Affecting FX Mkts Nishimura:Standing Pat On Policy For Long Time Not Prudent Nishimura: Policy Adjustment Can't Be Pre-Scheduled Nishimura:Policy Changes Shouldn't Be At Fixed Intervals









Syd 00:31 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:18 GMT that artilcle really says it all , reminds me of the Nassim Nicholas Taleb article I put on yesterday just what he was talking about , they make it up as they go along and get paid for it.

Syd 00:29 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:20 GMT not as funny as you think, UK has had a crime wave since they let in every tom dick and Harry have you been over there , you cant put anything down incase its swiped, and Harrods is a joke with gypsies and babies surrounding it begging - organised crime and plenty of it at all levels

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:22 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
funny with my tonight's "moon wane - kiwi trend fade" trade outlook..

dc CB 00:20 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:09 GMT July 3, 2007
FSA warns of criminal gangs cashing in on insider dealing

that's the funniest thing so far. I guess they're "criminal gangs" because they're not of the proper class. lol

Sydney ACC 00:18 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
Take your pick on kiwi's prospects
Year-end Kiwi forecasts

* Westpac US79c
* BNZ US73c
* ANZ US69c

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10449215

Syd 00:18 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
UK Terror Plot Suspect Doctor At Queensland Hospital-Official

Syd 00:14 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Nishimura: Japan Household Investors Affecting FX Mkts

Syd 00:09 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
FSA warns of criminal gangs cashing in on insider dealing
Gangs of organised criminals may be infiltrating the mergers and acquisitions departments of British investment banks to garner inside information on takeover bids, the City watchdog suggested yesterday.The Financial Services Authority accused banks of being “complacent” about the risks that their own staff might be guilty of illegally exploiting secret bid information.Banks and other advisers needed to do more to investigate the source of leaks and should do more to reduce the huge numbers of people with access to price-sensitive information, the FSA said.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2017514.ece

Syd 00:04 GMT July 3, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ
A parliamentary select committee is currently reviewing the effectiveness of monetary policy in managing inflation with a view to considering whether some form of alternative measures, such as through the tax system, are required to curb housing-led inflation.

The RBNZ also said it has conveyed its concern to the government about the rise in lending seen in some banks to the household sector, and the ultimate risk such lending could present to the financial system.

 




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