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Forex Forum Archive for 07/04/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd 23:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
The South Korean government is closely monitoring the local foreign exchange market as a fall in the dollar-won exchange rate could hurt local industries, Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy Kim Sung-Jin said Thursday according to local media.

Kim was quoted as saying that the foreign exchange authority will deal with market disturbance, such as speculation, accordingly to maintain market stability.

He said the market should be aware that it is risky to expect the foreign exchange rate to move in just one direction, local media reported.

A local radio station, TBS, interviewed Kim earlier Thursday.

Syd 23:41 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Potential reversal of capital flows by retail investors , at some stage they will be tempted to take profits
with excess of 25% gain in the bag , a repatriation of capital to japan once interest rates start to move up.
Bob Parker Vice-Chairman Credit Suisse Asset

Gen dk 23:25 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   

Do they expect the British public to roll over and play dead???

Stretched homeowners eye rental option
The homeowner sells their property lock, stock and barrel to a company, which then becomes the seller's landlord.
With millions of homeowners burdened by debt, sale and rent back is becoming big business.

Turn to the classified sections of most tabloid newspapers and you will see brightly coloured adverts offering to buy homes for cash in a matter of days


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6266268.stm

Syd 23:11 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:00 yes I remember thats when I came here, too many in the business dont ask question now and just accept everything face value , you can get false qualifications over the web even .

Sydney ACC 23:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:05 GMT July 4, 2007
This reminds me of Victoria in the early ninetie's. Pyramid Building Society and Estate Mortgage. Amomng others these two were notorious for lending money to property developers for up tp 110% of the property's value. At the same time they were borrowing at a margin above bank bill.
In the aftermath of their crash the property market crashed. Within two years residential values dropped by up to 40% in well-to-do areas of Melbourne.

Syd 23:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sakakibara Says Bank of Japan Must Lift Rates to Strengthen Yen
Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official, said the central bank needs to increase interest rates soon because the yen's slide has fueled a ``dangerous'' bubble in carry trades.

``The cheapness of the yen has reached absurd levels and the only cause for that is low interest rates,'' Sakakibara said in an interview yesterday after a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. ``The Bank of Japan needs to normalize interest rates as quickly as possible.''
``I couldn't agree more with Sakakibara,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange at UBS AG in Tokyo, who predicts the yen will rise to 122.80 per dollar and 165 a euro today. ``Japan's situation is abnormal and lots of people are having a free lunch. There is something wrong here.''
``Japan's interest rates are absurdly low and creating a carry trade bubble, and this is quite dangerous,'' said Sakakibara
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=abmy78o3d0lA&refer=currency

Syd 22:35 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Happy fellows

In Video, No 2 Al-Qaida Calls On Muslims To Unite In Holy War


CAIRO (AP)--Al-Qaida's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, has issued a new video tape calling on Muslims to unite in jihad, or holy war, and support the Islamist movement in Iraq, a U.S.-based intelligence monitoring group said Wednesday.

Al-Zawahri is seen in the one-hour and 35 minutes tape dressed in white and addressing a wide array of topics from Iraq to Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian territories and Egypt, said the U.S.-based SITE intelligence group, which monitors al-Qaida messages.

The group said it had obtained the tape ahead of its release on the Internet by militant web sites, and issued a transcript of al-Zawahri's speech. The authenticity of the transcript couldn't be independently verified.

Al-Qaida's deputy chief called on all Muslims to join the holy war against the West.

Ldn 22:28 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Policy Makers Say Keeping Rates Low Hurts Growth
Keeping Japan's interest rates unchanged for too long could hurt economic growth in the world's second-largest economy, two central bank board members said.

Failing to raise rates soon ``could cause large swings in economic activity and inflation,'' Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said in a speech in Tokyo today. Fellow board member Kiyohiko Nishimura said ``to stand pat for a long period of time is not a prudent strategy.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ayq3rov59ldM&refer=japan

LKWD JJ 22:13 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
a liter of gas costs how much compared with 3 bucks a gallon? theres also national health which is only a thought here in the us. the only ones who will gain if theres a raise are the fx guys who bought cable, if it doesnt collapse after the anouncement.

Syd 22:13 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Ronnie Biggs was doing time, until he done a bunk,

GVI john 22:12 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 22:11 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:05 GMT Sorry , got out

LKWD JJ 22:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
whats a "bunk"? i know we both speak english but there a difference in the dialect that im not familiar with. sorry

Syd 22:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Its happening everywhere

More firms collapse
TWO more high-risk property investment schemes have collapsed, taking to four the number of failures in the sector this year.
About $1.5 billion poured into property investments by 40,000 mums and dads is now at risk, Labor finance spokesman Nick Sherry said.
More could fall, Senator Sherry said, adding that "there could be a contagion effect".
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22019447-661,00.html

Syd 22:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:52 No , they are suppose to be policing this sort of behaviour , how is it that the culprits have already done a bunk before the authorities know, and the poor people are left bankrupt.

LKWD JJ 21:58 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
mtl jp bloomberg showing 53 of 60 economists surveyed favored a hike. its not a done deal. fomc decision was unanimous as far as the analysts were concerned.

Syd 21:58 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC exactly right , which is why I came to Australia , you can go back to the UK and the same old bloke is leaning against the same bar he was 10 years ago, nothing changes except it gets worse

LKWD JJ 21:49 UK is a magnet to many in the Southern part of Europe , from the small villages in Spain and Portugal you ask the children what they want to do when they grow up, they say work and live in the UK and I am talking back in the early 80s before you could go anywhere in Europe and live, 600.000 went into the UK the moment the doors were open and they expected around 30.000, just explain where all these people are suppose to live they even had tents pitched in Hyde Park, quite unacceptable in Margaret Thatchers day.

LKWD JJ 21:52 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:44 GMT July 4, 2007
The horse has already bolted !!!
----------------------------------
what do you mean?
raising rates now will only make matters worse for those less fortunate who are in forclosure.

LKWD JJ 21:49 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
syd the folks in london might be better off than other parts of the country. NY and LA have higher prices than ST. Louis and Miami. hard to fathom that their money is worth twice mine. i've been there many times and feel like i've gone back in time 25-35 yrs by the standard of living. the avg bloke on the street is worse off than here.

Sydney ACC 21:45 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:20 GMT July 4, 2007
FWIW the major difference between the UK and USA property markets is the abundance of supply in the USA. In the UK there is an accute shortage of standalone properties owing to the emphasis in recent years on building apartments in line with government guidleines championed by John Precott. The shortage and emphasis that London plays in the calculatioin of national figures masks a less sturdy picture in the north and midlands.

Syd 21:44 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
The horse has already bolted !!!

FSA in subprime crackdown
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/88fa9e9e-2a19-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html

LKWD JJ 21:43 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for a fifth day, led by Samsung Electronics Co. and Kookmin Bank, after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il signaled he's ready to dismantle the country's nuclear program.
-----------------------------
surprising that usdjpy didnt get sold off this news. i only remember it going up when the koreans fired test missiles, which today is the anniversary. maybe the mkts dont trust him and need deeds not just words.

Syd 21:42 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:20 One of the problems the UK has is foreign money pushing up prices in the South , the ordinary folk are being squeezed out of the property market , or have bought and now finding it hard to come up with payments, similar will happen in the UK with many that couldnt really afford to buy but thought they had no choice , but with rates continually rising will be forced into a fire sale as many dont have any equity in their properties. also many of the people buying the properties that are coming onto the market are Landlords who pick them up cheap and then rent them out to the poor souls who have lost everything ...

Halifax says that big rises in Northern Ireland and London mask falls in the West Midlands, the South West and Wales
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article2024322.ece

Mtl JP 21:29 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:20 / fwiw, U.K. House Prices Rise, Services Expand as BOE Meets - bloomberg

"... The average cost of a home in Britain rose 0.4 percent last month to 197,461 pounds ($399,000), compared with 0.3 percent in May, said HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender. An index of services growth unexpectedly rose to the highest since January, according to the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply...."

Mtl JP 21:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:57 / political wanna-be do-gooders coming up with a solution AFTER the fact ! ROFLMAO...

LKWD JJ 21:20 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
subprime problems in uk and bankruptcies might not let the boe raise rates tomm. here in the us subprime is hurting the housing mkt as it leaves more homes for sale since buyers are not creditworthy of a mortgage. home prices have fallen so far. on the other hand in the uk prices are still climbing so subprime might be less of a concern . would be interesting to know what % of both mkts is being fueled by these loans.

Syd 20:59 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:51 bed partners , lets just hope they both dont get the bomb :-(((

Syd 20:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) is to take action against five brokers that sell sub-prime mortgages.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6268754.stm

Bankruptcies hit record level as consumer debt reaches crisis point The number of people going bust smashed through the 100,000 mark last year, throwing the spotlight on Britain's worsening consumer debt crisis.

Personal insolvencies in England and Wales totalled 107,288, the highest since records began in 1960, according to figures from The Insolvency Service yesterday. The staggering tally will stoke fears that more and more people are living beyond their means and struggling to cope with debt in an environment of higher borrowing and living costs. But it also reflects the recent relaxation of bankruptcy rules, as well as the plethora of debt management companies that specialise in organising individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2211627.ece

Mtl JP 20:51 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20.17 - Venezuela agrees to sell gasoline to Iran - IHT

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:50 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
AUD on 4h chart is making a U turn - and NZD on 4h chart also think wants to drop to the opposite Bollinger Band around 7750

Ldn 20:33 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
1M FAKE PASSPORTS SEIZED IN RAID http://www.express.co.uk/news/view/12324/£1m-fake-passports-seized-in-raid

Syd 20:17 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Iran Confirms 80 Arrests After Fuel Rationing Riots TEHRAN Authorities have arrested some 80 suspects on the charge of damaging gas stations and looting shops during last week's protests against fuel rationing, Iran's state-run television reported Wednesday. Authorities could indict the suspects, mostly detained since last Wednesday, after watching video surveillance and security cameras in the looted shops and damaged gas stations, state TV said. The report was the first confirmation that people were arrested for protesting the new fuel-rationing measures. Announced last Wednesday, the government's rationing drove angry Iranians to smash shop windows and set fire to more than a dozen gas stations in the capital, Tehran, and several other cities. The new rationing is part of a government effort to reduce from $10 billion to $6 billion the bill it faces each year for refined fuel imports. Fuel is sold at subsidized prices to Iranian drivers for far less than it costs. Iranians are accustomed to cheap gasoline. After a 25% hike in prices imposed May 21, subsidized gas now sells at the equivalent of 38 cents a gallon. The rationing system allows private drivers only 98 liters of fuel per month at the subsidized price. Taxis get 799 liters a month. Anything more than that will have to be bought at a higher price, which officials say will be announced within the next two months.


Sofia Kaprikorn 20:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Philly Caba // nice to see you posting!

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:13 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
1957 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD should continue to remain range-bound today, likely to move lower during remainder of week, says ANZ Bank; "selling interests on the topside above 0.7830 should provide enough resistance to ensure it struggles on any attempt to break the shackles." Expects test of 0.7780 support during next 24-hours, with topside capped around 0.7850

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
1942 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD opens touch weaker after subdued trading session overnight as investors held their positions as U.S. markets closed for Independence Day holiday; opened 0.7818 vs 0.7825 yesterday's NZ close, last 0.7813. Pair traded in narrow 22 point range offshore with dollar subdued, little changed vs major rivals. Locally, apart from ANZ's June commodity price report, paucity of data should keep pair in recent 0.7780-0.7840 range; traders say there's possibility RBNZ may use thin trading condition to intervene and sell Kiwi. Any action by RBNZ could occur early in NZ session. Support of 0.7780 looks safe for now.

London 19:34 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
UK FSA Worried On Lending, Advice In UK Sub-prime Market

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The U.K.'s financial regulator Wednesday added to widespread concern about the sub-prime market, saying poor lending and sales practices may lead to serious broader consequences.

The Financial Services Authority, or FSA, said it had found weaknesses in responsible lending practices and in firms' assessments of the consumer's ability to afford a mortgage.

It has launched enforcement proceedings against five firms, but didn't name the firms. It said it would continue to monitor lenders and sellers of products operating in the sub-prime market and will focus on debt and affordability for the latter half of 2007.

Sub-prime mortgages are offered to home buyers with lower credit scores who are therefore a higher default risk.

"Consumers in the sub-prime market are vulnerable people who may have high debts or a bad credit history. It is therefore important that they are properly assessed and advised," said Clive Briault, Managing Director of Retail Markets for the FSA.

"We will not hesitate to take action where we find bad practice," he added.

The FSA's findings come amid growing concern in the U.S., where rising interest rates and stagnant house prices have triggered an increase in defaults and foreclosures.

American regulators and politicians have responded to the crisis by issuing tougher underwriting guidelines and proposing bailouts for home owners who are struggling to keep up with monthly payments.

The FSA said the high level of sub-prime arrears in a benign market raised important issues about how lenders and intermediaries were conducting their business.

"Poor sales practices in this market may lead to serious wider consequences," said the FSA's Briault.



AGV MAXXIM 18:30 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
No Blasting area radio N off v Ru ist

PAR 18:10 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
UK government lowers terrorism threat level from critical.

PAR 17:03 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY hitting new record highs before ECB and Trichets comments on global imbalances. As long as GM, Ford and Chrysler love to loose market share to the japanese, Paulson will tolerate a weaker yen to help his hedge fund friends .

Hong Kong Qindex 16:53 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3544 - 1.3674 and the mid-point reference of 1.3544 and 1.3674 is 1.3609.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.0494 - 1.0640. The mid-point reference of 1.0494 and 1.0640 is 1.0567.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:07 GMT July 4, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0048 - 2.0327. The mid-point reference of 2.0048 and 2.0327 is 2.0187.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.2088 - 1.2315. The mid-point reference of 1.2088 and 1.2315 is 1.2201.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:37 GMT July 4, 2007
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range is 0.8506 - 0.8643 and the mid-point reference of 0.8506 and 0.8643 is 0.8575.


Hong Kong Qindex 08:02 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 122.02 - 123.56 and the mid-point reference of 122.02 and 123.56 is 122.79.


Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range is 165.92 - 167.48 and the mid-point reference of 165.92 and 167.48 is 166.70.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT July 4, 2007
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading range is 244.88 - 247.73 and the mid-point reference of 244.98 and 247.73 is 246.31.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range is 0.6702 - 0.6774 and the mid-point reference of 0.6702 and 0.6774 is 0.6738.


Hong Kong Qindex 10:07 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.6462 - 1.6654 and the mid-point reference of 1.6462 and 1.6654 is 1.6532.


Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/AUD : The current expected trading range is 1.5753 - 1.5977 and the mid-point reference of 1.5753 and 1.5977 is 1.5865.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:28 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.4273 - 1.4467 and the mid-point reference of 1.4273 and 1.467 is 1.4370.

NY ralph 16:23 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
is this GMT 05:00 - May Lead Indicator - from Japan important for USD/JPY - ?

LKWD JJ 16:20 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:58 GMTJuly 4, 2007
LKWD JJ 15:52 GMT July 4, 2007

thanks for pointing that out i never knew that crucial peice of the confim of the next day.

London NYAM 16:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:11 GMT July 4, 2007//
On a cursory look I would say your suspicions are correct. i doubt we get below or much below that 2005 low. Pattern seems to be loosing momentum and completing. I rebound looks likely into the months that follow the break. But I'm just guessing.

Commo thanks for enjoyable convo on a slow day.
I'm off home.

PAR 16:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Higher crude and base metal prices are helping Japan combat deflation .

Como Perrie 16:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:57 GMT July 4, 2007

Well try to change your count from 5 waves into 7 for the big moves and then the congestion phase. More or less that is impulsive choatical trending..even if to me concept of chaos or trend are more or less identical, just the two donkeys linked that want to go to the same place on opposite routes.

Makassar Alimin 16:11 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:05 GMT July 4, 2007

yes, looks pretty ugly once that level is broken, the only thing that is questionable at the moment is that are we gonna have a good size followthru if we do break that level down...US summer is always tricky in terms of playing breakouts, lots of false breaks

Como Perrie 16:06 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SF/97

London NYAM 16:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:59 GMT July 4, 2007 // Hi Aimin.

Thanks for that. I see what you are getting at certainly looks like we will break that 81.00 level innevitably.

Makassar Alimin 15:59 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:00 GMT July 4, 2007

hi NYAM, i usually use futuresource...GV also has a link with feed provided by one broker, but i find it to be different from other sites

Como Perrie 15:58 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:52 GMT July 4, 2007

I do not see It JJ.

But just to recap some minor things on candlesticks, keep in mind that the rule is that the next candle is the confirmation of a certain candle pattern. As this you looking at as a possible hammer. The more the less today is a holiday, so I would clean out today bar and look at cable dailies by tomorrow. Even if short term do hence some minimal adjustments lower that I agree from a technical aspect. But this again I would start to consider during the upcoming asean session as to be values of markets to be considered fair for chart reading.

London NYAM 15:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie that is the next zone at 1.2234 not 1.2134!

London NYAM 15:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:43 GMT July 4, 2007 //
Dont know about the chaos system of which you speak but we did get a pretty decent 5 wave decline into 1.2089 which was a slippage of only 15 pips from the fib support zone when i bought it two days ago (1.2110 fib zone 1.2104). Its played out nicely so far right into the hands of the next fib hot-zone at 1.2178 (high 1.2177) but it has done so in 3 waves so we have more to go. I expect the zone of 1.2134 next. So if your chaos program os working that would play well with this structure as it seems to be retracing in steps before another launch below 1.2090.

PAR 15:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
With crude oil at the high of the year, more rumors of an imminent Chinese interest rate hike .

LKWD JJ 15:52 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
for all those who use candle stix daily gbp has a signal for a short.

Como Perrie 15:43 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:33 GMT July 4, 2007

am now currently playing with some chaos systems...and was exactly wathching usdchf... all appears the chaos model which is targeting 1.2040/50 has been deleyed into august or so for Its natural completion awaited in June from this chaotical enviroment am now observing. (as there to be sort of interventinism behind of sort - maybe just the Bear Stearns case imvho)

London NYAM 15:33 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
USDCHF just on the edge of breaking out of its wedge to the upside at 1.2165

Como Perrie 15:13 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
The following is a text I sent over to some pfolio friends to consider more adding onto TIPS from fixed bonds some a time or so ago (if time exists)..think 10yr yield was some 4.6 to 4.7 -

-----------------------------------------------------------

while from the distressed industry all looks different anything and nothing and It goes.. took a look last days at the following stories published..at least so to see what menthal distance from reality It takes:))

(me)

NEW YORK (HedgeWorld.com)—Activist investors may get higher returns for company shareholders, but their actions are not always in the best interests of bondholders, as the results of that activism can decrease the creditworthiness of companies. In other words, the increasingly popular concept of "shareholder democracy" may not be such a good thing for everyone, according to a recently released report by Moody's Investors Service.
The report, "Expanding US Shareholder Power Increases Potential Credit Risk to Bondholders," was written by Mark Watson, head of Moody's corporate governance group. In it he argued that bondholders traditionally "rely upon management and the board to strike the right balance between generating returns for stockholders and maintaining the creditworthiness of the company." But such balance has been under strain of late. Short-term investors have won new rights to press companies harder for short-term gains that may not be in the best interests of risk-averse bondholders who rely on fixed returns, according to the report. The trend has gotten worse with new developments that have increased the power of shareholders at the expense of debtholders, Mr. Watson noted.

Moody's did not imply that the interests of bondholders and shareholders always conflict. They may be aligned when shareholders are long-term investors, such as pension plans. For instance, when shareholders reduce chief executive pay or force boards to be more accountable, the end result can be beneficial to both long-term shareholders and bond investors, as those changes reduce credit risk.

What concerned Moody's as outlined in the report was the effect of activist investors. While the term "activist hedge fund" is never mentioned in the report, the pressure tactics of those new players to increase returns on equity are clearly identified, and Moody's considered their agitation process detrimental to bondholders as it promotes short-term changes.

For instance, pressuring boards to implement a leveraged buyout, finance investments through more debt, or simply borrowing funds or selling assets and then returning the proceeds to shareholders through dividends or share purchases are some of those negative tactics that can decrease the creditworthiness of an issuer, according to the report. "In the most dramatic cases, management and the board of an investment-grade company will enter into a leveraged buyout, yielding a high premium for shareholders but a sharp increase in credit risk for bondholders without protective covenants," according to the report.

As shareholder rights in the United States have made progress never seen before, harmful effects on bondholders are all the more noticeable. Some of the new powers won by equity investors that may hurt bondholders include the right to reject a management board nominee using majority vote mechanisms, and proxies that give more power to the activist investors to nominate their own directors. Starting July 1, the report noted, issuers or dissident shareholders will be able to distribute proxy ballots electronically, which will dramatically reduce the cost of mounting a proxy fight.

In addition, some companies have dismantled their takeover defenses in recent years in response to investor pressure, which has left them more vulnerable. For instance, since 2000, the number of "poison pills"—a mechanism that helps boards fend off hostile bidders by diluting the value of their shares—has dropped from 276 to 175, according to Institutional Shareholder Services Inc., wrote Mr. Watson in his report.

To make matters worse, debt agreements with the issuer, often called covenants, provide bondholders with a lower level of protection. Traditionally, bond covenants put limitations on leverage and dividend distribution. But such restrictions are less incorporated in the bond indentures of investment-grade issuers. And speculative-grade bonds with limited covenant protections are becoming more common.

In its conclusion, Moody's pressed for changes: "[We] believe it is time for investors and policymakers to analyze carefully the potential harm to bondholders of significantly enhancing shareholder power," wrote Mr. Watson.





Como Perrie 14:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:39 GMT July 4, 2007

Very intersting concept.

Was just mumling on the academic readings of markets to be somehow, like agriculture people without land to seed. In other words you can say this point to be a strange attractor, becouse markets are chaotical, but If your reckont today to be a holiday in US the chaos disappear as is stupid to trade during holidays and so we do not count this phase as the academics do.... Bat as in the naricisitc problematics of individuals and the more of the society, the classic type of madness is folie ala deux, so hence the classic double strange attractor is needed to relax the equal amount of money borrowed and offered from the market, so as in basic economics the rule of offer and demand. Now am reading a mathematician from his non-real and so theoretical point of view quoting that when demand and offer are different we are going into a chaotic move - while I do think he just made his first steps for the psychiatic cure at least some pills for well being :))))

I think just too much has been written and that too many rules and balance sheets and stats have been falsified and as Greenspan said liquidity will dry up ---.- then the reality will appear between demand and offer.

Have a good one

Monaco Oil man 14:39 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie , Some things never change :

“The most fundamental principle of all in gambling is simply equal conditions, e.g. of opponents, of bystanders, of money, of situation, of the dice box, and of the die itself. To the extent to which you depart from that equality, if it is in your opponents favour, you are a fool, and if in your own, you are unjust.”

Girolamo Cardano Year 1565

London NYAM 14:38 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Not exactly a thrilling market today as Jay has been saying, but all the critical levels are easily within shooting range. Looks like no big boys are interested in shifting the market, although GBP is drifting lower.

Como Perrie 14:34 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Short-term traders will fail over time due to nothing more than the cost of trading

PAR 14:29 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY risk clearly for a weaker yen whatever japanese barking dogs .

Philadelphia Caba 14:08 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:20 GMT July 4, 2007
are the RBNZ's guys dumb? I don't think they are ... they've tryied to intervene 2-3 times already ... market is still driving by carry trades & weak $ ....
g/l with your shorts, I got stopped twice past 3 weeks...hats off on Oily Boily reading market .. nice job!

PAR 14:03 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
125.00 if Trichet refers again to the G7 statement and call for a stronger yen which he also did when EURJPY was at 140.00. before being rebuked by Paulson . Lol and never listen to central bankers .

NY tim 13:59 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:56 GMT July 4, 2007

do you see 123+ for USD/JPY

PAR 13:56 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Selling Japanese yen -like Kampo , now joined by the japanese house wives- still the single best idea. Kampo probably informed that japanese economic numbers will as usual be horrible, despite the positive rhetoric by BOJ and MOF .

London NYAM 13:53 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:42 GMT July 4, 2007//
Thanks for the link. Noted that IGROK the old contributer to the forum has an interesting article.

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:24 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
BCN JP 12:55 GMT

given that a BoE rate hike is almost a certainty - and has recognized by the mkt as such since the minutes of the last meeting indicated a 5-4 rather than 7-2 split - there is no reason at all for a huge spike higher UNLESS there is a 50 bp hike (of course nothing is ever logical in fx so who knows).

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:20 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
added at 7824 - now average short 7808..
ST techs look favourable for at least test of 0.78
interesting however that every plunge is very quickly bought and the rate just stays above 7814...

Como Perrie 13:03 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
AudUsd think key supporti is this $0.8480 Previous high August 1990

BCN JP 12:55 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Right, NYAM.

Lets talk now about one big mover tomorrow: cable.

Two scenaries:

A hike of 0.25%

A no hike.

For me, a no hike will send cable down to 2,0080. And the problem is if we have a hike.

A hike could mean we will see it at 2,0250 at least, but we could see too profit taking.

What do you think?

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
very clear explanation - tnx !

Como Perrie 12:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
A good time to recalibrate analyses during this US holiday. So far Forex markets are fully open, but with some players absent.

Monaco Oil man 12:51 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:20 GMT July 4, 2007


RBNZ is hidding, they spent on their last intervention their yearly trade surplus of 300M(lol,jk), if they try another 300M "intervention" they better do it again on sunday open , when NZ only is open...Otherwise their 300M will make a 5 pips move..
Anyways CB's intervention , pure cash one ccy against another has for a long time now no chance of succeeding unless it is against retail positions (and thus with corporate positions)...That's when they break and go for long..Other way, money is quickly absorbed as market conditions haven't changed..

GT.

Como Perrie 12:43 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:38 GMT July 4, 2007

there are also some parental candlesticks strong patterns supporting the whole scenario imvho. dailies

madrid mm 12:42 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Fwiw

July issue of Currency Trader magazine
Click here

London NYAM 12:38 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:33 GMT July 4, 2007 // I like that count you offer as that would help extend the annoyance of a wave 4 well into lates summer and knock out specs again with a wave b top possible false breaking above 124.12. It would maximize pain.

London NYAM 12:36 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
BCN JP 12:17 GMT July 4, 2007//
I actually agree with you as well, except not many people can stay in the market long enough to recognize its short commings and trade accordingly. The problem is that when you see it work you get the overconfidence disease and overtrade.
Its just a tool and it depends on whose wielding it.

Como Perrie 12:33 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:26 GMT July 4, 2007

Agree. Took a look at the chart you posted. More likely outcome I do see is an larger ABC count to start with a B around that 121.50 to 120.70..aprox numbers am looking by thumb on chart...below 120.50 117.50 imvho..but timing unknown as we progress.

gl and gt

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
BCN JP 12:17 GMT July 4, 2007

I do agree, but at times am looking at for a general view of the market not really a trading one. There is also a reason for what you state on the fallacity of the Ewavers, which is that EW readings do change lotsa as the market progressing. Another one would add is that claim about 2.000 to be an elliot point is due a bad/false and misuse of elliot wave. My count was actually different about possible targets and targets are several and not only one. So claiming 2.0000 as to be the only target is just a personal speculation or a news by some analysts from big banks that want to get rid of the minor speculators in one way or another.


London NYAM 12:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:55 GMT July 4, 2007
Now you ‘speaka’ my language. :)
Indeed EW people do dislike the problematic 4th wave and, post fact, one would be forced in this case to renumber the count should we get below 118.48, but that’s too far off to be tradeable for me. The correction so far, however, may already have been enough. But the final phase you mention has room to correct to your targets without disrupting the general count I have (and you) as wave 4. The 23.6% target I have at 121.16 (starting from the march 28th low of 116.37 to the last high. Also a draw/pull to the wave 4 lows within this wave at 120.76 is very possible. (see blog which for me still holds: http://www.gviforexblog.com/node/425). I prefer to trade this long with normal size positions and with undersized positions when short to the aforementioned areas. In general, I don’t like wave 4s as they are usually extended decision points with a lot of potential for whipsawing. Also, an inside measure of the b wave up that you pointed out to 123.55 (1.33 yen extending down by 1.618 would take us to 121.39
So lots of reasons to stay short here.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:20 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
excuse me for this question - but just for information - if RBNZ is to intervene - when is it going to act?

I mean it's normal working time is Asian session but I can fugure that dealing of CBs are 24/7?

BCN JP 12:17 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hi!

With respect, the day you get rid of Elliot Wave, you would be free.

Elliot Wave has a very strong business behind. The problem is that when you discover that EW is not going to give you money, you may be broken.

A lot of EW followers were saying that cable was ready to collapse at 2,0000. Some sold it. Well, it happens always the same, you lose a lot of trading opportunities thinking you master the market. Get rid of your biased thinkings by EW and just trade what you see.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:15 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
btw - I see audjpy & nzdjpy actually creep higher slowly
those Japanese housewifes don't rest on Independence day :)

Como Perrie 11:55 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 4, 2007

if we play then some elliot wave adaption to micro term of this usdjpy...currently It might false show one of the three types of irregular fifts...from top at 124.10... but to me if count properly the third and 4th and so this strange fifth are flase as an abc intra movement developing from 122.20 into 123.50...and then 122.10 ...doubt elliot to work very well around the 3d and 4th wave as already elliot had some doubts on the 4th...but methinks It was all togheter the 3d and 5th and hence the 4th between he was seeking to trigger somehow....


I tend to think a micro chatic enviroment from short sighted markets we do deal at current that below say 122 or 121.90 bring a micro avalanche of stop orders into 121.50 or so ...without changing the macro chatical enviroment yet.... that should be imo below 120.50 or so

Como Perrie 11:47 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
btw bike helps me to offset my yet bad habit of smoking...but am taking as a tour not really a competition.:)

Como Perrie 11:46 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 4, 2007
:)) am old and young ...It deepence working day or w/ends :))...not so old for nowadays just 42 yrs going 43yrs... but started early :))

for a very short term pic a micro chaos enviroment usdjpy shd go pick some into 122.39/35 for the upocoming hours

London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:27 GMT July 4, 2007//Funny, I always pictured you as a wise old bearded man who smoked a pipe in one hand and flipped stakes on in the other, not a bike rider…
I would be surprised to see the yen strengthen to as much as that in this phase of the trend but if 121.90/122.00 breaks then it could trigger some unwind/fear stops. A break down below 120.74 would send many carry traders packing (or perhaps just see them come back to the office with stop loss orders filled below their order levels.
On the NFP triggering blood lets on the USD vs EZ and Brittania; definitely on the cards, but the interest rate announcement will probably knock the wind out of cable. The EURGBP cross should get a big boost tomorrow (if all goes to plan ;~)).

Now I wait. I’d rather be on a wine tour though.

Como Perrie 11:31 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
but am rarely intradaying... so not worth looking at what am saying except a 2 to 6 weeks horizon...

Como Perrie 11:29 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
btw I do see yet some audusd stops from late yesterday in the .8555 region. RBA did not touch rates this time as you know. Guess so eur gbp, but not the jpy

Hong Kong Qindex 11:29 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range is 165.92 - 167.48 and the mid-point reference of 165.92 and 167.48 is 166.70.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT July 4, 2007
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading range is 244.88 - 247.73 and the mid-point reference of 244.98 and 247.73 is 246.31.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range is 0.6702 - 0.6774 and the mid-point reference of 0.6702 and 0.6774 is 0.6738.


Hong Kong Qindex 10:07 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.6462 - 1.6654 and the mid-point reference of 1.6462 and 1.6654 is 1.6532.


Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/AUD : The current expected trading range is 1.5753 - 1.5977 and the mid-point reference of 1.5753 and 1.5977 is 1.5865.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:28 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.4273 - 1.4467 and the mid-point reference of 1.4273 and 1.467 is 1.4370.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:28 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.4273 - 1.4467 and the mid-point reference of 1.4273 and 1.467 is 1.4370.

Como Perrie 11:27 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:18 GMT July 4, 2007
:)) ref BBQ ..nothing this w/e am planning a bike tour in the proximity of the wine region...some 30-50km with agricultural stops in between :))

London 11:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck Wednesday sent a warning to France to keep its medium-term budget objectives, because to not do so would create a problem for the European Union and the Stability and Growth Pact.

Como Perrie 11:25 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:18 GMT July 4, 2007

tks for recap.. likely..also likely usdjpy 121.60/40 after NFP tomorrow? with stops on eurusd and gbpusd being triggered...or just carry repat ahead of dangerous yen rebalances due closing books in semptember?

London NYAM 11:18 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Perrie//
EURUSD (4hr)
Currently I gave us in a wave 4 of a wave 3 so the dip we got to 1.3584 was already at the high prob. retrace of 23.6% (I usually expect that the wave 4 targets within a wave 3 do not retrace more than 23.6%) but in this case I think an extended sideways correction could retest that level, so I’m looking for a small gain on this and will wait to see if we can break this to get down to the next level at 1.3552. S/l will have to be respected as we are in the (usually) strongest part of a move so the 5th of the 3rd will not be pleasant ie; if it breaks above the 1.3638 high it won’t be pleasant for shorts without s/ls.

The GBPUSD however looks to me to have completed the first wave up and is begging for a deep correction.

Usdjpy may have trouble getting over 122.90 but if it does I suspect this corrective phase is over.

Enjoy the BBQs

Como Perrie 11:07 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Kyodo News reported Tuesday night that Financial Services
Minister Yuji Yamamoto suggested that he believes Japan needs to
review the management of its forex reserves and to start investing
them in non-US assets via a Japanese Investment Corporation (JIC).

London NYAM 11:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:39 GMT July 4, 2007 //
Do you have a decent site that shows charts for the USD index? anyone?

Como Perrie 11:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:32 GMT July 4, 2007

So far I do see some Usd strenght and suspect strenght of Yen too to lead the market into tomorrow. Gonna see which one the strongest.

Mumbai SAS 10:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Closed my Kiwi Short from 7810 at 7818 for a loss of 8 pips ... will try to reshort at better levels ..... GL GT

Como Perrie 10:49 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:32 GMT July

Am summer relaxing working onto end of august to september currently. as presumably intraday opportunities will not be the daily dose for the time being. But who knows unless the liquidity does not dry up sharply, maybe It is already. Gonna see

Bon Air VA Dennis 10:48 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 10:39 GMT

what would you expect for a range on a major, high summer holiday in any country?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : The current expected trading range is 1.5753 - 1.5977 and the mid-point reference of 1.5753 and 1.5977 is 1.5865.

Makassar Alimin 10:39 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
usd index is not looking good at all, if at most we have today is another tiny range, then i expect another sell-off to make new weekly low

London NYAM 10:32 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:24 GMT July 4, 2007// couldnt really argue with these views. I have a tendency to go in too early so the USDJPY dip is always feasible.

Perrie Counter Chaos? So that would be resumption of trend im guessing.

gtgl to you both.

Como Perrie 10:29 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 10:04 GMT July 4, 2007

Yes a month or so ago It was in Cech rep., UK and some in Canada as well as Romania or some I think. Lotsa of summer flu this year. But yet contained the human deaths known are bout 300, but slowly expanding onto the globe.. Good news

Como Perrie 10:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:17 GMT July 4, 2007

I haven't seen yet anyone talking differently than their books :))

that's why I do not wish to post much of what am doing. btw today am working contra-chaos :)

and will wathch those int. rate meetings o.c.

have a good day ahead.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:24 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
NYAM // tnx for this q - just from charts observation I think usdjpy wants to dip briefly under 122 to touch the daily channel bottom
-- while eurusd & gbpusd could revisit their 20day MAs (down approx. 150 pips) as a healthy breath before the resumption of the Uptrend without any damege to the charts..

this view is like I stole it from Oil Man and other Pros but I cant's see anything else that makes sense to me..

London NYAM 10:17 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
of course im talking my book as im currently long dollar against virtually everything. ;)

London NYAM 10:15 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:05 GMT July 4, 2007// Of the three sub components of the crosses you like (i presume you are itching to short the european carry pairs), which do you think will fund the move down? EUR&GBP or JPY? Or perhaps both?
Just curious as, to me, it looks like a dollar strength s/t is being set up. Both GBP Aand EUR look ready to correct while USDJPY looks to be setting a bottom in for a new play up over 123.00 first.
Anyway glgt.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:07 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.6462 - 1.6654 and the mid-point reference of 1.6462 and 1.6654 is 1.6532.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd - tnx!

btw - looking at Daily EURJPY & GBPJPY -
is there any significance that we see Double Tops on both?

certainly they are well positioned for further rise but just in the short term (1 week??) isn't this formation going to cause some technical reversal?

Ldn 10:04 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EU:Says New Bird Flu Cases Suspected In France, Austria

Como Perrie 09:59 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Fidelity National Information Services, a financial processing company, said that a worker at one of its subsidiaries stole 2.3 million consumer records containing credit card, bank account and other personal information. Washington Post

Como Perrie 09:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
The Washington Post today reports that borrowers fell behind in their payments on a higher percentage of consumer loans in the first three months of the year, pinched by slowing job and wage growth and climbing gasoline prices, new figures showed.

PAR 09:55 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP going for stops above 2.0225. JPY aiming for stops above 122.55. Usual carry trade day. GBPJPY target 248.00.

Nigeria Basorun 09:52 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
any idea or opinion on the CABLE with due respect anybody on it

Como Perrie 09:51 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
KEY NOTE TODAY

The Bank of England is widely expected to lift rates 25 basis points on Thursday to 5.75 -

THIS WHILE

ECB is expected for a hike to 4.25 percent in September

rest is of minor importance today as most of markets are relaxing positions due holidays.

Syd 09:50 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:41 yes I agree with you on that , Mr. Yen sounded quite pissed off with the level, Japanese must lose self esteem with their currency in the Gutter no wonder the latest consumer confidence was low, and heard the banks are suffering unable to raise rates.

PAR 09:46 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EURO aiming for stops above 1.3650. Should be easy in thin market conditions .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading range is 0.6702 - 0.6774 and the mid-point reference of 0.6702 and 0.6774 is 0.6738.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:41 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd //
hi - I'm certainly far from calling tops but I sense that the news flow from Japan is slightly twisting to underline aversion of one-way thinking -- like they want not to scare everyone for the exit but to guide a more orderly unwinding or decresing of the retail carry... (as hot money will always chase higher yield)

I'm not good at caling tops but AUDJPY and NZDJPY on 4h charts look to me prone for correction - - I'd appreciate any opinions

Como Perrie 09:36 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Moody's to upgrade Japan Bonds

Syd 09:31 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Fund Crisis Spurs Two Congressional Hearings: 'Plunge Protection Committee' in Rare Testimony
July 3, 2007 With a growing credit markets crisis centered on hedge fund failures and the mortgage-based securities and derivatives they trade, two Congressional committees reportedly have scheduled new hearings on hedge funds in July.

PAR 09:23 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Slumping euro zone retail sales proves that europe not good for consumers .

Syd 09:21 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Interesting article from last week !!!
Japanese Central Bank Dumps Pro "Weak Yen Official" in Move to Curb Carry Trade.
June 26, 2007 (LPAC)--Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Hiroshi Watanabe, has resigned.

Known as the "Weak Yen Official," who as Japan's top currency official was obviously one of the key supporters of the Yen carry trade.

Also today, Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi issued a statement warning that investors should realize the risk of one-way bets against the Yen. He told reporters in Tokyo that "disorderly moves of foreign exchange rates are undesirable." The statement was seen as targeting the yen carry trade. Indeed the yen advanced against all the major currencies including the Euro.

PAR 09:17 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro zone retail sales consecutively dropping in april and may suggest that consumer spending is deteriorating across region and that before the impact of the latest ECB hike which can only make things worse. This again proves the big divergence between european politicians rethoric and the normal suffering european consumer .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading range is 244.88 - 247.73 and the mid-point reference of 244.98 and 247.73 is 246.31.

London 09:15 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Retail sales volume in the 13 countries that share the euro slowed more than expected in May.

The volume of retail trade fell 0.5% on the month but rose 0.4% on the year, the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, said Wednesday. This was a sharper fall than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted that sales volume would fall 0.3% on the month and grow 1.0% on the year.

Eurostat also revised down its estimates for sales growth in April to a 0.1% decline on the month and 1.5% growth on the year, having previously calculated that sales grew 0.2% on the month and 1.6% on the year.

PAR 09:09 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Past ECB interest rate hikes having a big impact on euro zone declining consumer spending .

Ldn 09:07 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Italian Economy Minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa said Wednesday he shared concerns expressed by European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia over the country's high debt level and the sustainability of the state pension system.

PAR 09:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro zone may retail sales unexpectedly drop 0.5% on month against an expected increase. Euro zone consumers not benefitting from business boom due to too high taxes and too low salaries and wages .Most company profits are generated out of Europ .

Como Perrie 08:53 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
NFA puslished a guide for broker's selection and scam.

Individuals also have the option of viewing and printing the publication by downloading it here

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or in PDF format by clicking on the cover or at

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Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range is 165.92 - 167.48 and the mid-point reference of 165.92 and 167.48 is 166.70.

Syd 08:26 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Riksbank Minutes More Hawkish Than Expected
The minutes of the Riksbank's monetary policy meeting on June 19 were more hawkish than expected, says Henrik Svensson of Nordea, and he had expected the minutes to be hawkish. Says he knew Deputy Governor Svante Oberg wanted a tighter policy, but is surprised by the strength of Governor Stefan Ingves comments.

London 08:14 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
An al-Qaeda leader in Iraq boasted before last week’s failed bombings in London and Glasgow that his group was planning to attack British targets and that “those who cure you will kill you”, The Times has learnt.“He talked to me about how they were going to destroy British and Americans. He told me that the plans were already made and they would soon be destroying the British. He said the people who cure you would kill you.” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article2023024.ece

New Brighton gvm 08:11 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 07:58 thanks for your feedback. GT to you

Hong Kong Qindex 08:04 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3544 - 1.3674 and the mid-point reference of 1.3544 and 1.3674 is 1.3609.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.0494 - 1.0640. The mid-point reference of 1.0494 and 1.0640 is 1.0567.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:07 GMT July 4, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0048 - 2.0327. The mid-point reference of 2.0048 and 2.0327 is 2.0187.


Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.2088 - 1.2315. The mid-point reference of 1.2088 and 1.2315 is 1.2201.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:37 GMT July 4, 2007
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range is 0.8506 - 0.8643 and the mid-point reference of 0.8506 and 0.8643 is 0.8575.


Hong Kong Qindex 08:02 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 122.02 - 123.56 and the mid-point reference of 122.02 and 123.56 is 122.79.

London NYAM 08:04 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
London 07:54 GMT July 4, 2007//True but the pros can still switch sides and leave the retailers holding the paper...
any chance of an initial or two?

Mumbai NS 08:03 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Two bad hrly closes on cbl turned short let's see gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 08:02 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 122.02 - 123.56 and the mid-point reference of 122.02 and 123.56 is 122.79.

Monaco Oil man 07:58 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 07:48 GMT July 4, 2007

I m actually not looking for "much" downside , probably 1.3557 by announcement..
The real game will begin if we start going under 1.3520..
I don't see that as a trend change, but consolidation phase before the next move against the US$..
Can probably barrier up 1.33-1.37 for the next 2 months.
Good trades.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Every time Sarkozy say euro over-valued..the euro's move up.
Best for him to stays quiet. LOL.

London 07:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Too many pros joining retail USD longs

Syd 07:49 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Investors More Guarded About Carry Trades

London 07:48 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
French President Nicolas Sarkozy repeated recent warnings that the euro is overvalued and inflicting damage on euro-zone industry. "I want to raise the issue of the euro being overvalued," Sarkozy said. In his speech, Bini Smaghi acknowledged that intervention can work as it did in 2000, when the ECB helped to boost the value of the euro.

New Brighton gvm 07:48 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:57 - what sort of downside ar eyou looking for in the Euro? TIA

prague mark 07:45 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
long GBP/USD 2.0180 TP 2.0250

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:45 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Bob are youi around mate.....EURSEK coming to your target soon. :-) GL

Syd 07:43 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Swedish Ctrl Bkers Unanimously Voted For Rate Hike June 19
Riksbank's Oberg: Upside Risk To Inflation
Riksbank's Oberg: Wages Rising More Than Expected
Riksbank's Svensson Supported Rate Hike, Rate Path Rise
Riksbank's Oberg:Rate Path Should Follow Overheating Scenario

ldn 07:40 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Common for top pickers.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:39 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sweden's policy makers were unanimous on June rate increase.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:39 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sweden's policy makers were unanimous on June rate increase.

Monaco Oil man 07:38 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Stops resisted , now that's a good one, being 8 pips from a SL in GBP always wakes you up on the right foot.

This day could prove to be majorly volatile with lack of liquidity into the middle of European session.

GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:37 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range is 0.8506 - 0.8643 and the mid-point reference of 0.8506 and 0.8643 is 0.8575.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:36 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Swedish central bank split on June 20 rate hike, minutes say, Two new members voted for hike.

NOKSEK down 40pips so far.

Gen dk 07:35 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Saint 07:35 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
ldn 07:28 GMT July 4, 2007
short cable 2.0203

Nice Fill

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:34 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
just in line with my style to post some useless info - based on BBands nzdusd on 2h chart has all the reasons to touch 78 low...

ldn 07:28 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
short cable 2.0203

Malaysia 07:27 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
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London NYAM 07:25 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
agreed ld right ariund here is starting to look like a good cable short for 100 to 200 pips

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:24 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
audjpy 4h chart has a pattern very close ot H&S and nzdjpy is somewhat edging higher but momentum seems to be waning..
the theme of risk aversion is slightly apparent in the news today..

ldn 07:23 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Reporting perfect high point to short cable like a journalist. LOL

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:19 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
0714 GMT [Dow Jones] Risk appetite edges lower again with the UBS Risk Aversion Index rising to 0.18 from 0.16 on Tuesday. The bank notes the index is now approaching risk aversion territory. "This development was mainly reflected by increasing USD/JPY volatility and widening high yielder spreads," the bank adds.

London 07:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Consumer Confidence Shows A Slide
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1273559,00.html

Monaco Oil man 06:57 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
AB:
I m quite loaded on GBP$ , $CHF, EUR$ shorts atm..
And as i felt 2.0203 was a good addon to existing shorts, so i just closed all NZD..To drop the cookie on GBP..
Time will tell if it was a good idea.
Good trades.

Wellington, N.Z. 06:55 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday's FX Trading Forecasts:

Today’s Favored Trade is NZD/USD
To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Monaco Oil man 06:53 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:47 GMT July 4, 2007

I took out all NZD with a meagre profit, due to keeping leverage under leash , got plenty gbp Added....
GT.

HK [email protected] 06:52 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
To play it safer if anyone wants to join the Yen to USD appreciation, better buy Yen below 120.80. Above that you may be squeezed

hk ab 06:47 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you think kiwi is still a nice reshort @7840 if seen again? or we better exit?

Syd 06:46 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC yes just looking at it , have a friend at CNBCeurope sending it to him cheers for that

Sydney ACC 06:45 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd, this one is especially for you.

The Financial Services Authority will say in a report today that it is concerned that sub-prime mortgages are being inappropriately sold to homeowners in Britain.

Its investigation, which preceded the meltdown in the US sub-prime market, found that some mortgage brokers had not kept proper records and could not show that loans they had sold were suitable for customers.

Sydney ACC 06:40 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Fidelity chief Bolton warns packaged loans market echoes split-cap trusts

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2023039.ece

One of Britain’s leading fund managers said yesterday that the $1 trillion (£500 billion) institutional packaged loans market was flawed and posed significant risks to investors.

madrid mm 06:25 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
hello, hello, hello,

Moody's has placed Japan's A2 Government Rating on review for upgrade.

RBA leaves Cash Rates unchanged at 6.25%.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki speaking earlier, says Japan should seek profitability in managing FX reserves while ensuring safety and liquidity. Undesirable for FX reserves management to affect FX and markets.

UK Chancellor Alistair Darling, in FT, says he is concerned Britons who took out fixed rates mortgages for 2 years in 2005 will have to move onto higher rates.

WSJ: Alcoa hints at higher than $27.8b bid for Alcan.

NKS: PM Shinzo Abe swiftly named a replacement for Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma, who resigned over controversial remarks about the U.S. atomic bombings; but ruling party lawmakers, facing an uphill battle in the upcoming elections, did not hide their frustration over yet another blunder by a cabinet member.

Australia trade gap unexpectedly narrowed to AUD807m, versus expectation AUD1,200m, and versus AUD916m

Daily Mail reported yesterday: It's on. A GBP250bn-plus summertime oil merger to create the world's largest company. Red hot rumours suggest that BP and Royal Dutch Shell are currently involved in round the clock discussions centred on finalising terms for a 'friendly' merger which many industry analysts believe would make a great deal of sense.

Thin markets today, with US away on Independence Day.

JPY remains the focus, with talks of the huge EUR34bln coupons and redemption hitting market today, though market has already been abuzz with the above for the past few sessions, including >EUR10bln German bunds coupons.

Eye any sales in London Fixing.

Focus on fixing where there were talks large regular Japanese custodian, regional, agricultural banks may sell it. Fixing was set at high of 122.46, only for USD/JPY to come under selling on Moody's move to put Japan for possible upgrade, pushing USD/JPY to day lows of 122.22, and EUR/JPY lower to 166.39 from 166.55-60.

USD/JPY downside still finding bids from Japanese importers/ investors - talk of new toushin, and options bids ahead of 122.00 triggers- talks China.

EUR/ JPY still vulnerable on coupons, with stops below 166.20, and offers again b4 167, after it hit highs of 167.20.

AUD dipped a touch post RBA decision to 0.8545 from 0.8455 before edging up on narrower than expected trade gap of AUD807m, pushing it back up to 0.8565, and up on real money demand to day highs of 0.8575. Options related selling now ahead of 0.8600, eye 18-year highs of 0.8599. NZD edging up to 25-yr high of 0.7840.

EUR/GBP eye BP+ Royal Dutch Shell GBP250bln+ merger talks, bids 0.6740-45, could edge up. GBP still capped ahead of 2.0200 option triggers, but stoploss above.

Nikkei +28pts or 0.16% at 18,178. JGBs lower on back of UST, with 10-year JGB yield at 1.905%, +0.025%.

August crude oil a tad lower in Asia, -$0.21 to $71.20, though market thin with US off.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.23/122.51, EUR/USD 1.3607/1.3620, GBP/USD 2.0158/2.0185, USD/CHF 1.2149/1.2163, AUD/USD 0.8544/0.8578, NZD/USD 0.7806/0.7826.

Syd 06:16 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Yuan Accelerates Past 7.6000, Highest Since Revaluation

It seems that policy makers may now be giving into the overall pressure, realizing that an appreciation in the currency may help to alleviate economic problems that have emerged (notably consumer inflation).

Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.2088 - 1.2315. The mid-point reference of 1.2088 and 1.2315 is 1.2201.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:01 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 04:56 GMT - I am working on the major and GBP/JPY will do later today or tomorrow.

Mumbai NS 04:56 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:51 GMT July 4, 2007
Ty Dr Q any thots on stgyen gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 04:51 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 04:24 GMT -

GBP/USD : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above [2.0182].

EUR/USD : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.3619

Mumbai NS 04:24 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day to u any bias on cbl and euro gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 04:07 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0048 - 2.0327. The mid-point reference of 2.0048 and 2.0327 is 2.0187.

Syd 04:01 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
China shares down midday in lukewarm trade, as investors head to sidelines on concerns of more tightening measures after PBOC yesterday said it would appropriately tighten policy.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.0494 - 1.0640. The mid-point reference of 1.0494 and 1.0640 is 1.0567.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3544 - 1.3674 and the mid-point reference of 1.3544 and 1.3674 is 1.3609.

Syd 03:10 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for possible upgrade the Japanese government's A2 rating for domestic debt securities (JGBs) in light of indications that an inflection point has been reached for an improving government debt trajectory.

"In addition," said Moody's Senior Vice President Thomas Byrne, "sustained improvement, albeit gradual, in Japan's macroeconomic performance has helped support Japan's fiscal consolidation."

Syd 03:07 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Moody's places Japan's A2 government rating on review for upgrade, says trader at Tokyo securities company; "Right after report came out, it appears that players started" selling currencies like USD, EUR vs JPY.

Syd 02:53 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   

The first interview today..
Turbulence Expected for Financial MarketsWed. Jul. 4 2007 | 9:11 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=408574040&play=1#

Syd 02:42 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Facing Possible Mishap
New Zealand is a potential candidate for a mishap in the financial market says Sean Darby, head of regional strategy at Nomura International. He tells CNBC's Amanda Drury, Martin Soong and Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered that short-term money flows for New Zealand are financed by the carry trade.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=408574050&play=1

sydney ge11ja 02:34 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 01:42 GMT July 4, 2007

I see the comparisons to 1998 for yen but it appears to me the AUD and NZD are more similar to 1989. Then the market was driven by Belgian dentists but potential moves will be similar

Field Trader JC 02:21 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Field Trader JC 02:15 GMT July 4, 2007

That was a dumb question!!!! Good night

Monaco Oil man 02:20 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Field Trader JC 02:15 GMT July 4, 2007

Yes, still long $ over all those ccy..
Think we got a no hike coming in UK..So will be sell the fact, though above 2.0220 , fold the cards and follow the train..(That goes for all high's on majors).
GT.

Field Trader JC 02:15 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 02:05 GMT July 4, 2007
I meant the wing of the company that is located in Monaco. Thanks for the lead to Jay.....I will try to get in touch with him.

Good night and Good trading

Are your Eur/Gbp/Nzd trades still open?

Monaco Oil man 02:05 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Field Trader JC 01:56 GMT July 4, 2007

You can contact me through , Jay (ask global view for my email)..

Btw Monaco is a special country for Forex...
There's no license given to anyone but institutions..So you won't see a S.A.M (Monaco companies) raising capital and trading FX, can do it via offshore /hedge fund, but no S.A.M..
Just for the sake of general knowledge and the "Your monaco company".

Good trading.

Syd 02:00 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY Unlikely To Break Record High Before ECB

EUR/JPY unlikely to break all-time high 167.20 before ECB meeting ends tomorrow, says trader at major Japan bank; adds while Europe economy still robust, interest rates high, "it's difficult to decide how much we can build up euro-long positions (against the yen) before confirming whether the ECB will raise interest rates twice within this year". Adds subdued markets due to U.S. holiday, persisting concerns over terrorism attacks, will likely hamper advance in cross.

Field Trader JC 01:56 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 01:42 GMT July 4, 2007

How does one contact you? Can I send an e-mail to your companies Monaco e-mail address?

Syd 01:49 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Former Japan vice minister of finance for international affairs Sakakibara is latest ex-Japan official to throw weight behind case for BOJ rate hikes; tells CNBC "the BOJ should raise rates as quickly as possible...we should target 1.25 to 1.5 per cent" by end-year. Says Japan economy in biggest expansion since WWII, is experiencing price stability. Doesn't agree with view that hiking rates again could prompt deflationary shock: "We are enjoying zero inflation. What's wrong with that?". Most in market don't expect rate hike before August at earliest, once July polls out of way, and given lack of broad strength in economy, prices; with rates at 0.5% now, Sakakibara is suggesting notable rise in pace of hiking in coming months. Also downplays likelihood that complaints will rise about weak yen; while U.S. would have power to sway markets if it suddenly voiced concern, Treasury Secretary Paulson "is focused on China..he is not focusing his attention on Japan."

Monaco Oil man 01:42 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:39 GMT July 4, 2007

I'm not looking for a complete turn around, or a change in trend (US$ down, YEN down) , but consolidation..If current high's are taken , then there's no consolidation , we move again higher, but the more we move higher without prior consolidation the more the risk of brutal change increase (See 1998 Yen).
Something to think about.

GN.

Sydney ACC 01:39 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 01:21 GMT July 4, 2007
OM your views on the antipodean twins has been spot on for the last 6 months or so.
Lets see whether we are all correct as to the proximity of a turnaround to their fortunes.

Syd 01:25 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:18 Also feel something brewing in the Yen , today's CNBC concentrating on it , the situation of the NZD goes far beyond just the carry trade but it implication on the economy once they start to pull out.

Monaco Oil man 01:21 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:13 GMT July 4, 2007

Aye, NZD and AUD , are in the hands of the Japaneses wifes.(See GVI Jay 10:35 GMT July 3, 2007 for first link)..

Do foresee some troubled days ahead for NZD and AUD..(Though again in the Grand scheme of things, the US$ is going down)..But the next 100-200 pips might not be to the upside from here on.

Good trading.

Sydney ACC 01:18 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:41 GMT July 4, 2007

After yesterday's poor retail sales figures, CBA has backed away slightly from an increase next month. They now regard an increase in the rediscount rate as anytime soon.
The market lopped up to 7 cents off the futures strip yesterday. Lets see what happens today!

Sydney ACC 01:13 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 00:54 GMT July 4, 2007
Sydney ACC 00:46 GMT July 4, 2007

I agree.
What's at the front of my thoughts is that USD/JPY is starting to show some resilience (at least over the last couple of days)
which has to be a precursor to any weakness in AUD and Kiwi.
I think we are days away (only guess work and no one should rely on this hunch) from something happening.

The risk as alawys when AUD/JPY or NZD/JPY falls that the Japanese retail market views this as an opportunity to buy at a lower level. Maybe if they get slaughtered they'll think twice about adding to their already large positions.

Syd 01:12 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Dr Eisuke Sakakibara Professor of Waseda University & Former Vice Minister for Finance Japan Squawk Box says the value of the yen is obscene says Japan should raise rates to 1.25% by year end ,

Syd 00:58 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Some really good news today

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP)--Kidnapped U.K. reporter Alan Johnston has been released after nearly four months in captivity, Hamas said Wednesday.

Johnston was not seen after the announcement.

The release was announced by the Islamic militant group's TV and confirmed in a text message from Hamas to The Associated Press.

Hamas said Johnston was in the custody of its military wing.

sydney ge11ja 00:54 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:46 GMT July 4, 2007

This is another sign the top is nearing, the market is giving up on the short side.

Sydney ACC 00:46 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Only a matter of time before it's US80c?


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10449454

Another suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank yesterday morning pushed the currency briefly below US78c, but the kiwi spent most of yesterday hovering above US78c, near the overnight high. It closed at US78.12c.

Syd 00:41 GMT July 4, 2007 Reply   
Commonwealth Securities chief equities economist Craig James expects Australian rates to remain steady throughout 2007, after RBA earlier stood pat; high AUD damping inflation risks and says it's very hard to see 2Q CPI on July 25 giving RBA a strong enough number to warrant August hike. Data this week showed building approvals at 6-year low, while retail sales tepid in April and May, so "the RBA has time on its hands."

 




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