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Forex Forum Archive for 07/05/2007

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Gen dk 23:45 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sydney ge11ja 23:42 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:39 GMT July 5, 2007

Yes it was like the world was ganging up on me and the only reason it came back down was because I cut 1/2 of my position at the top!!

Sydney ACC 23:39 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 23:02 GMT July 5, 2007
Between the MPC announcement and the release of the ISM data NZD/USD shot up from 0.7815 where it had been for the last 36 hours up to 0.7875. Man it looked like it had been fed steroids. If you were short at that time you would have been thinking the whole world was ganging up on you.
Kiwi, Aussie and sterling are all overvalued.
Like a surfer you've just got to wait for the right wave.
Very frustrating.

Syd 23:14 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC scary thought if your on the wrong side, just reading about the Japanese elections would be nice if any japanese participants on the forum could give us some insight to the situation and what the alternative to the present government would mean.

Toronto MRC 23:02 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:24 GMT July 5, 2007

Syd think about nzdjpy and audjpy given yen is 33% undervalued versus the dollar and nzd is more then 70% overvalued yikes the eventual unwind will be the greatest money making opportunity in a long while.

Syd 22:44 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
China stocks plunge as investor faith remains low
Chinese stocks nosedived more than five percent on Thursday as more investors stayed away from the market, which has been highly volatile in the past month.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.25 percent to close at 3,615.87 points, extending Thursday's two percent loss.
Turnover in Shanghai A-shares was low at 75.76 billion yuan, slightly higher than the 72.26 billion yuan on the previous session, but less than one-third of the daily record of 267.5 billion yuan reached on May 30.
That indicates many investors remain cautious and are staying away from the market, analysts said, adding that it may take a long time for investors to regain confidence.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/05/content_910975.htm

Syd 22:29 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Investors Shun `Falling Knife' of Real Estate Stocks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aplRXmosXJJw&refer=home

Bon Air VA Dennis 22:28 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:47 GMT

excellent point re: overconsumption, for what I see anectdotally it is becoming as great an issue in the EZ/UK as it is in the Western Hemisphere.

Competitive rate cuts would certainly kill the carry trade/sure thing,one way traders as well.

Syd 22:24 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Latest Big Mac survey sees Kiwi 73% overvalued

Halifax CB 21:47 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR, I wouldn't hold your breath. AFAICS, the West has to let Japan weaken it's currency in order to make inroads into China, and to stay competitive with China on the world scale. If it bothers the West, they can always lower their rates, and live with the inflation, or raise taxes. Over-consumption is Western problem, not a Japanese one.

GVI john 21:35 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
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LKWD JJ 21:31 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 21:01 GMT July 5, 2007
or debris on the subway trax..

LKWD JJ 21:30 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
strong down trendline in $Y coming in near 123.should hold still looking for 121.50 soon.

London NYAM 21:01 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Yeah PAR the USA always have the nuclear option... again right? That would fix em.

PAR 20:52 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
As proved in WO II unfortunately for them the japanese only understand hard talk not diplomacy.

London NYAM 20:46 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR interesting bed time stories but really. The Japanese stand to lose just as much by this carry extremism. Besides it wasnt so long ago you were short dollar yen.

PAR 20:35 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trichet is fooled by the japanese like the Americans were fooled at Pearl Harbor. For years the Japanese are not keeping their promises and Trichet dares not to reply. Ultimately this will become a financial Pearl Harbor because nobody ,including the Us treasury, has the strong leadership to confront the japanese with their continious manipulation .

Mtl JP 19:11 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke will present his revised 2007 and 2008 estimates to Congress at his July testimony on monetary policy, now announced for the 18th. The joke... may be on us - i.e. the market - as he should present his re-written and revised inflation data for the last three years. July 18th = hight of the summer holiday season when eyeballs are glossy and minds on golf handicaps

Mtl JP 18:57 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
LKWDJJ is refering to
Mtl JP 18:45 GMT July 5, 2007
Unusual for head-of-state to comeout so directly...

Brown Says U.K. Rate Rise Necessary to `Get Grip' on Inflation

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates was necessary to contain inflation.

``We've got to get a grip on inflation,'' Brown said today in an interview with ITV. ``

LKWD JJ 18:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
mtl jp ------------> did he relinquish his position in the boe as he is now pm? if not , hes the guy for a quote.

Como Perrie 17:31 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
French swans have deadly bird flu
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6272574.stm

London NYAM 17:16 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Alimin//Yeah something similar. I like your consolidation zone. It conforms with a complex correction following a simple one that appeared in the early move of this breakdown. Sticking to selling top of the zone with a stop just above the area (for the replacement of the half short from 2.0185) in case this is actually the end of wave a and not merely the 4th wave within it. 2.0140 is my 'uncomfort' zone. glgt

Makassar Alimin 17:03 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:57 GMT July 5, 2007

guess we are looking at the same picture :) i think tomorrow's strategy could be playing the breakout using OCO for 100-150 pips to either side if got it right but from past experience, usually we will have false breaks on US summer trading months, so need fast finger tomorrow if proved wrong

London NYAM 16:57 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Alimin// Totally agree multiple fib clusters at/between 2.0124 and 2.0132. Breaking 2.0138 would mean a more protracted retrace. But the move should consolidate for another dip. IMO
Repositioning other half of short in increments between these levels.

Makassar Alimin 16:50 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
out of gbp long from 2.0095 at 2.0124 for +29, should consolidate here between 2.0130 and 2.0090

Lahore FM 15:56 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:37 GMT July 5, 2007
the bid sort of stalled yes.let us see what we get by way of ata tomm.1.08 is not impossible of course.gl.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:51 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
The followings are still valid :


Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3544 - 1.3674 and the mid-point reference of 1.3544 and 1.3674 is 1.3609.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.0494 - 1.0640. The mid-point reference of 1.0494 and 1.0640 is 1.0567.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:07 GMT July 4, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0048 - 2.0327. The mid-point reference of 2.0048 and 2.0327 is 2.0187.


Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.2088 - 1.2315. The mid-point reference of 1.2088 and 1.2315 is 1.2201.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:37 GMT July 4, 2007
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range is 0.8506 - 0.8643 and the mid-point reference of 0.8506 and 0.8643 is 0.8575.


Hong Kong Qindex 08:02 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 122.02 - 123.56 and the mid-point reference of 122.02 and 123.56 is 122.79.

melbourne DC 15:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
1315 GMT [Dow Jones] BNP Paribas says the most significant aspect of Trichet's introductory statement was the restating that the ECB will monitor developments "closely." This is in line with the expression used last month and is a break from behavior previous to that. BNP Paribas says the use of the phrase gives the impression rates are closer to neutral and that the ECB is in less of a rush to deliver. BNPP says this will fuel speculation of the next move coming in October rather than September and in turn decreasing the likelihood of two further moves in the 2H. (GST)

dc CB 15:37 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:21 GMT July 5, 2007
usdcad well bid for 1.0650.

Canadian building permits were up over 21%.
Ivey PMI was at 67.4 from 66.4.

none of this moved usd/cad much. tomorrow 7AM est Employment stats, then Tues Rate annc. If the loonie still wallows about in this range after these numbers come out, the run may be done, and time to visit Purkies 108xx.

London NYAM 15:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Gold had a bulimic attack to down to 646 from from 656. Looking at softs and they joined the purge-party.

HK REVDAX 15:20 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Is there anyone here who is familiar with Qindex's vibration number? Then according to his vibration numbers, will Euro go further down? TIA

Makassar Alimin 15:12 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
stop brought to entry on previous gbp long, might have a better entry if stopped out

Monaco Oil man 15:11 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
I m currently flat, now, no trades till tomm...

Time to go out.

Good luck.

London NYAM 15:05 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
geez guys, give the guy a break he's been dishing out winners like a happy rain god.

delray beach RMN 14:58 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL WHAT IS YOUR TARGET ON AUD/USD SHORT AUD/JPY AT 105.17 TRYING TO CALCULATE EXIT STRATEGY

Syd 14:47 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:46 yes was just wondering the same

Mtl JP 14:46 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 14:42 / hehe, Raising Consumption Tax in a saver society with with a price-deflationary mindset... Is Japan PM a prankster ?

Syd 14:42 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan PM Hints At Possibility Of Raising Consumption Tax-Kyodo

Makassar Alimin 14:40 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
go long gbpusd 2.0095, stop under 2.0057

London NYAM 14:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Closed half of short GBPUSD at 2.0104 from 2.0185. Stopped out of short USDCHF at 1.2252 (-17 pips). Break under GBPUSD trend line at 2.0122 looks good for another 100 pips bur may bounce here.

Makassar Alimin 14:07 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
will try gbpusd long near 2.0090 with 30 pips stop, should be good enough

Monaco Oil man 14:04 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   

I was short GBP before rate decision and PT at 2.0130(last leverage)..Reshorted as under...

That ALL from GVI :



Monaco Oil man 12:58 GMT July 5, 2007
I have upped all targets, just left the stops..I think we've seen weekly high, and still have a friday to go , so will go for larger targets..This week been pretty tight range, and if they do break my way, then only patience is needed.

Good luck.

Monaco Oil man 11:49 GMT July 5, 2007
Current :

All trades resumé:
AUD 8572+85 Short. 8626 bid stop...
$CHF 1.2120 Long (heavier), 1.2076 bid stop.
GBP$ 2.0180 Short 2.0212 (bid stop)..
NZD$ : 7864 Short...86 bid stop.
EY : 167.14 Short, 44 stops

----

BTW , for those who don't GVI, there are good information turning on that side, it does help , even for me , as I don't read any news , reading the other people keeps me well informed..(I only use numbers)..
Thanks GVI , often forget to thank for the service out here.

Syd 14:03 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ISM Jun Non-Mfg Employment Index 55.0 Vs May 54.9

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:02 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
60.7 ISM

Syd 14:02 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
US ISM Jun Non-Mfg Business Index 60.7

madrid mm 13:53 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ISM Non-Mfg Survey - Consensus 57.5

Como Perrie 13:51 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
sry june 25 lst

Como Perrie 13:47 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:12 GMT July 5, 2007

I do see last post june 5...title suprise and more.. interesting chatter chart

Cali mmm 13:32 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, can you pls share your tragets for GBPUSD and USDCHF short term? TKS!

PAR 13:30 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trichet and ECB acting like BOJ. We will watch developments .

toronto df 13:25 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:12 GMT July 5, 2007
Long $ over the board (for those who read GVI or blog).

Oil Man What's your target for GBP/USD ?

Lahore FM 13:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
usdcad well bid for 1.0650.

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:19 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
9:13 EDT - T. does NOT exclude presser

wth is going on, double, triple, quad negagtives?

Syd 13:19 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:16 GMT before and after I think :-)))))

PAR 13:16 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd/ We understand that but the japanese drink too much sake after the G7 meeting and then forget what they signed and said.

Syd 13:13 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:12 great call

melbourne DC 13:13 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
23:09
*DJ Trichet Q&A: Doesn't Exclude August Press Conference
he is not performing too well today (to me) , maybe mind on hol already.

Syd 13:12 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:07 thats how I read it also

Monaco Oil man 13:12 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Long $ over the board (for those who read GVI or blog).

Think we have seen the weekly tops , so should see 1.2230 $chf for example from here.

Good luck.

hk ab 13:10 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ge11ja
thanks...

PAR 13:07 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Basically Trichet says he agrees with Sarkozy that Euro is overvalued and yuan and yen are undervalued as agreed with the japanese and the chinese in most of the previous G7 meetings.

Tonbridge AL 13:00 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Teleconference is how they do the summer holiday meeting. IE by telephone they meet to discsuss the ECB policy. Their is no press conference.

Syd 12:59 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trichet playing the market players along at their own game , no intentions of raising rates till he is good and ready just like Hans Tietmeyer

London NYAM 12:59 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:56 GMT July 5, 2007 //
London was using double negative...

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:56 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 12:52 GMT

hmmm, TFN/AFX saying teleconference IS planned for Aug 2

Ldn 12:52 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trichet Q&A: No Plan Not To Hold August Teleconference

Sydney ACC 12:44 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
While signs of the impact of higher rates have been limited until now, it is clear that household spending power is being squeezed, and that the housing market is losing steam.

Today’s rate rise will apply another touch on the brakes that should be sufficient to ensure that the Bank can be reasonably confident of having quashed inflation risks — and that its target will be hit with its hard-won credibility still intact.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2030903.ece

sydney ge11ja 12:41 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:36 GMT July 5, 2007

The first one was in NY time. The Fed offered USD/YEN through EBS.

hk ab 12:36 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
does anyone know when was the 2 massive intervention taken place in 1998? Was it during NY, Asian or Eu session?

madrid mm 12:36 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
fwiw-bloomberg- The non-manufacturing ISM
Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Financial market players monitor the business activity index, because a composite index, like its manufacturing cousin, is not compiled by the ISM.

Why Do Investors Care?
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data like the ISM non-manufacturing survey's business activity index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The ISM manufacturing index has a long history - dating to the 1940s. This new report (beginning in 1998) was originally not adjusted for seasonal variation, but the ISM has since established seasonally adjusted figures for several of the ISM non-manufacturing components (including the business activity index) since 2002. As a result, the ISM non-manufacturing survey has garnered more attention and is almost as widely followed by financial market participants as its manufacturing cousin.

Halifax CB 12:31 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Re the ADP numbers; though the numbers look ok on the surface, manfacturing and large goods producing sectors continue to decline; the major growth is in small and medium service sector jorbs.

Como Perrie 12:28 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
NFP tomorrow so far..today those 315K new jobless claims which is a minor one..later on the ISM the non manufacturing - might be interesting since the US economy has almost lost any weight onto the GDP from the manufacturers.

Guess good to think about vacations...have a good one anyone of you who go around some...I'll be pinballing here yet some

Makassar Alimin 12:26 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
after today, it is getting more and more expensive holding long jpy against gbp, unless rates in Japan starts going up too, but so far it has all been talks only...like lion with no teeth

Como Perrie 12:24 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Just maybe for now... am bit bored with such summertime markets hope this NFP to offer some good entry points either ways It want to move this melangé

Syd 12:22 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
An employment indicator published Thursday by payrolls giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers reported an increase of 150,000 in private jobs in June.

That compares with the expected 128,000 increase in total jobs that economists called for in a Dow Jones Newswires survey earlier this week. The Labor Department publishes June nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.

In addition, there was a slight upward revision in the May increase, which now shows an increase of 98,000 private sector jobs instead of the 97,000 increase first reported.

The ADP-Macroeconomic Advisers estimate doesn't include jobs growth in the government sector. In May, there was a 22,000 increase in the number of government jobs out of a total increase of 157,000.

Como Perrie 12:22 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:17 GMT July 5

yeap agree... from the closer friends of Sarkozy and international politcs too...this is not the classic dum and gloom ...at least It confirm me the political class has fallen deeply into gossip and stupidity, maybe heavy compromised either ways to do the donkey job of netting the society for international powers and global change...hence the end of nations as we knew It

ref chf might be good an idea..but would wait NFP before any move further....maybe in coupla hours or late tonite usdjpy at 122

London NYAM 12:17 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shorted USDCHF at 1.2135. Bounce off of 61.8 retrace should hold it (1.2143). s/l above it and tight.

Perrie, stuff like that comming from a senior French minister is pretty appauling.

Makassar Alimin 12:15 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
after gbp made new high, now aud, will euro follow soon?

Como Perrie 12:12 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
It says that a video quoting the interview released by the french ministers is published at reopen911.info

Como Perrie 12:11 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Secondo Christine Boutin, ministro delle Politiche urbane e degli alloggi
Ministro Francia: "Bush dietro attentati 11/9"

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:06 GMT July 5, 2007

Yes NYAM on the front page It says the french minister Bush to be behind 9/11

London NYAM 12:06 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:58 GMT July 5, 2007
"Am reading one of the main italian newspapers .. www.corriere.it

in the front page It says that a Sarkozy's Minister Christine Boutin is quoting Bush behind 911"
Sorry do you mean he is saying Bush was behind 9-11?!

Como Perrie 11:58 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Am reading one of the main italian newspapers .. www.corriere.it

in the front page It says that a Sarkozy's Minister Christine Boutin is quoting Bush behind 911


well what was clear is that documents regarding Iraq were falsificated, that Florida elections manipulated...but this french guys are getting heavy now I guess... what's going on in this global madness

GVI john 11:51 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Como Perrie 11:51 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:46 GMT July 5, 2007

That was already done by the banks with CDOs and the like (with lotsa yen borrowing into)...problem is bankrupticies and closing of loans...domino with homeowners - lending banks - syntetic financial instruments and carry trade....all is linked

Syd 11:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ECB Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged At 4.00%, As Expected

PAR 11:46 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Solution for UK home owners is to swap to yen loans . Benefit from declining yen and rising UK house prices .

Syd 11:41 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
the UK housing market and economy will now start to feel the pain the US have for the last year , with the rate hikes feeding through, ECB have yet to start tightening the screws but they willl

Syd 11:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
SydoJoe 11:35 also hearing today that the CPI may suprise to the downside with the low petrol prices feeding through.

PAR 11:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Top three jap car manufacturers share of us ligth vehicle sales 32.9% vs 28.3% a year ago. GM, Ford , Chrysler 50.2% vs 56.1% a year ago. Top three us car manufactuers all losing money in car production and only make money thru financial engineering and investing in subprime and other dubious investments .

UK Alex 11:30 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:24 GMT July 5, 2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/24/cnhonda24.xml

London NYAM 11:29 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 11:27 GMT July 5, 2007// Thanks OEE. I leave on Monday and have your number should we drive down to Bodrum.

Best regards.

Bodrum OEE 11:27 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

Have a safe travel and enjoy your time here. Regards

Como Perrie 11:27 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:24 GMT July 5, 2007

Guess the japanese manufactures do not care much anymore of the overindebted and tired western world par...they think to sell cars in china next...while we still dreaming into a doubtfull past...hence the taxes in UK are missing to sustain the SexPistols economy

PAR 11:24 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Japanese car manufacturers very pleased with BOE rate hike decision.

Como Perrie 11:23 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Okidoki gotta go for another coffee..there's nothing short term of my taste at current levels...hate that 1 pip limit missed....I'll see then again in some...am more tempted to see a yen strenghtening starting with the usdjpy and then the crosses due that subprime, bear stearns and the hundreds of funds behind involved totalling ten times more than LTCM.. if such the case is more likely upper way of eur as of gdp to be smoothed and the safehaven to be the yen...so a general idea..but this is nowhere confirmed at current...I'll stay yet put at current in general and see then

Syd 11:12 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Subprime mortgage collapse: why Bear Stearns is just the start
05.07.2007
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31699/subprime-mortgage-collapse-why-bear-stearns-is-just-the-start.html

London NYAM 11:10 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ahh bad luck Como. Dont think this is going to stick anyway. Stopped and reshorting now.

Como Perrie 11:09 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 10:48 GMT July 5, 2007

If you think I'll give any money to a narcisitic man of fund who calls Cazenove..I'll rather spend It in borderls myself

Como Perrie 11:07 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ah NYAM my limit to buy cable at 22 not executed for 1 pip so bad...but who cares am not really much there cabling as of late..

Syd 11:07 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
SydoJoe 10:49 GMT I can remember when the top rate of income tax was 83% and for some I believe 98% many just up and left the UK for the USA , but its not just out of your pay they are taking it house hold rates have trebled since I left. I have a friend that pays equivalent to $6000 Aud a year , and he doesnt have a swimming pool either

London NYAM 10:58 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:48 GMT July 5, 2007 // If that occurrs Commo that would be areal body blow to Cable. moments away...

SydoJoe 10:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
re
Syd 08:54 GMT July 5, 2007
This probably accounts for 80% of the population
in the UK :-))))
Hunt is on for undeclared income
-----------------------------------
This will drive Hedge Funds out of the city... most of the partners and principals have their whopping bonuses paid offshore in Jersey and other offshore havens... these big boys will physically relocate a lot of businesses and move elsewhere in the world..

madrid mm 10:48 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
A sense of Deja vu.... NOT ?!?!?!?!

``It's the triumph of liquidity over fundamentals,'' said Peter Harvey, who oversees $3.8 billion of assets as head of credit at Cazenove Capital Management in London. ``The creation of credit funds is unlike anything we've ever seen.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKzJqs78jqaY&refer=home

Expect the unnexpected. What goes up , must keep going up sometimes !

Como Perrie 10:48 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Wd not be surprised BOE not to hike NYAM.. but no idea if this the case confirming your deep stratofishing point down there, could be harmful for many I guess

Sydney ACC 10:30 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd another property horror story for you.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31730/can-you-bag-a-property-bargain-in-ireland-.html

London NYAM 10:27 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
keep an eye out for the GBPUSD 2-4 trend line from June 14th to June 27th lows (best seen on 2 hr charts) comming in now at 2.0117 and rising at about 30 pips a day so should we approach it, it will test the confidence of longs and the power of new entrants. Breaking it would make a move to 1.9980/90 more likely than a new high first. IMO

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:10 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
tnx guys..

London NYAM 10:06 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:54 GMT July 5, 2007 //
M/T targets .8048 S/T Resistance is here at .7825-.7850 above minor hit on .7877 then .7907. Need a break of .7821 to change short term picture.

madrid mm 10:02 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:54 GMT July 5, 2007

Yes .
It is Stronger than the All Blacks at the moment
8+-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:54 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
anybody care to comment on NZD?

Como Perrie 09:51 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:48 GMT July 5, 2007

Agree in part, but as the hwole you mentioned am not really that way as most are seemingly quoting...but better I stay put on this as is just my imagination maybe...see later..taking a pause

Como Perrie 09:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
even 1.3580/70 are more important as supports for the eurusd...maybe tomorrow the multiday players will set their stops there ahead of the NFPs...today I do not know...

ECB is no hike with prospects of another in september which will be sought in Trichet commentaries...

BOE is for no hike to 1/4...market apparently undecided here..soon to come and see some fireworks for fast finger traders only but

London NYAM 09:48 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:37 GMT July 5, 2007//
It’s a mini rollercoaster of micro-chaos but the levels are still there to attack. I’d rather take a few small bites from the easy moves and set up for the turns. The USDJPY had thrown me a little I admit. It seemed to me the resumption of trend had already begun but the move up was so choppy and the reversal so smooth you can see where the path of least resistance appears to be. Although this appears equally true for the EUR, it too is likely to get consolidated in a 4th wave coming soon. GBP is not looking so healthy and today should be a burn for the beast unless, for some ridiculous reason, BOE starts talking about how they considered a 50 basis point hike…that would reverse fortunes no matter what the phase of wave we are in.

PAR still long USDJPY then?

Como Perrie 09:45 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR tend to think is safer to sell this eurusd if goes below say some 1.3600 to 1.3590, as anticipating such marekts is bit dangerous. What is clear to me is we are trading around some complex levels and the marekt went long around 1.3350 to 1.3400...where the usd camp was theoretically growing for some many there while the story again shown out to be different in nature with obsviously the handsight of time...so worth nothing, just a mere consideration of facts.....where next I do not know as the usd has some problems so the euro region had many, but as all bubble as It goes you buy the climax and the smartest sell the strenght..where is then the strenght...the forum offers so many levels posted that is better not to follow....in doubt stay flat imvho

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:41 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
could this been intervention from 7849 to 7833 in a few minutes?

PAR 09:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Nobody daring to sell EURUSD ahead of hyper vigilant Trichet .

Como Perrie 09:37 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:23 GMT July 5, 2007

In general am thinking that way, micro term am yet bit unsure of anything very clear to happen out of eur, gbp and so chf before the afternoon...maybe some of those boxes feeding the market either ways here and there..this while the yen clear goes on his own so another story here.... hard to define a market like this at least from a short term point of view to me..at times I do just sit here and do watch those pinball traders going up and down and at times I do play that too, but very rarely as those speedy fractals are very untollerant of the market structure in many times..... so prudential and inflation protected bonds :))

Como Perrie 09:24 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:21 GMT July 5, 2007
I tend to think all nations, and previous two generations, have grown out by printing debt and sending It onto new genrations...so am waiting the unemplyed growing number of youngsters to have some to say as in the 68, maybe much more.....plus the king and the totem are bit expensive maybe...so me looking the other way around to this neo-feudalism..but what can I do...until capable to go my own fine, when strangled then in love of mass revolution or nazism as It already happened the previous century(ies)

London NYAM 09:23 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Today looks like a new direction has developed on USD. Profit stoped on usdchf at 1.2144 and Commo appears to have seen the emergence of the mysterious 7th leg (magic of 7s again). Looking for a pop now to reverse. Equally the poor showing of USDJPY unable to breach the 122.90 level mentioned yesterday has made me reverse positions (with small profit on USDJPY long. Now short. But the reak loser looks to me to be the GBPJPY which im still short on at 247.15 (that at least has played to the rythem). EURGBP crosss also palying ball and comntinues to march onward. EURUSD has already started its 5th of 3rd leg up (stopped out for a loss of 20 pips).

Como Perrie 09:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
btw am flatting this eur ahead of ecb...just do not like to be trapped in those ugly sides for too long...

Syd 09:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:13 so would I be definitly , quite a good cop out isnt it :-)) UK these days are taxing the air you breath .

Como Perrie 09:13 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:08 GMT July 5, 2007

Oh well syd.. living here as a small fish, that's what I am, Its impossible not to pay taxes - maybe If I would had a company that's easier, but not my case as my earnings are clear and taxable so am I.....the problem here so far is still of those agreements between the church and the new nation born some a hundred years ago where basically we have a double taxation - 2/3 of taxes goes to the republic while 1/3 to the vatican...btw if you are a religius body you are exempt of taxes as from houses to many other things plus you receive financing from the state....

so in italy all are religious somehow..the big ones at least :)

Syd 09:08 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:05 you dont have to have great wealth to fiddle the tax man :-)))

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:08 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
pretty strange - aud is not moving but nzd is jumping all over - of course this might be because NZD is small ccy and easier to move around the stops levels..

Como Perrie 09:08 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London 08:50 GMT July 5, 2007

That's all couse BOE washed natioanl reserves now the urgency of taxes becomes a classic of preservation of the old bureocracy and gov. Big clash, but multinationals are paying just some 3-5 pct of taxes on special agreements, else they dismantle production in UK and move It abroad, hence state finance will loose even the small tax payers, which in contrary are happy to pay taxes - at least It means they do earn some ::))

Como Perrie 09:05 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:54 GMT July 5, 2007
maybe a 5-10 pct but 80 pct of wealth :)

Como Perrie 09:04 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Guessing if correct to stay long eurusd with stops in the 1.3625sh

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:01 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
somebody is playing with NZDUSD - on my 2h charts there is a gap and the rate is jumping around 7848..

RBNZ seems to care little here

Hong Kong Qindex 08:58 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : 

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.3514 - (1.3538) - "1.3615*" - "1.3618" - 1.3619*

Upside Targeting Points : 1.3656 and 1.3676

Downside Targeting Points : 1.3530 and 1.3574 

Remarks : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.3619.


The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3544 - 1.3674 and the mid-point reference of 1.3544 and 1.3674 is 1.3609.

EU theEUROqueen 08:55 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob!

only 60pips thats all what we need...!! by the way the chines stopped selling the EURO!!..thats a good news for us..

happy trade

Syd 08:54 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
This probably accounts for 80% of the population
in the UK :-))))

Hunt is on for undeclared income

Tax investigators have vowed to extend the search for undeclared offshore income to all corners of the banking system.Dave Hartnett, the director-general of Revenue & Customs, said that the battle to prise open secret offshore accounts of British taxpayers would affect all 550 banks in the UK, not just the five high-street banks that have been forced to divulge their offshore customers’ account details.

“It is very important to have a level playing field. We are not going to roll up our tent and go away.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/27ab0246-12c7-11dc-a475-000b5df10621.html

London 08:50 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Late tax payers face seizure of bank cash
LINK

Como Perrie 08:48 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:44 GMT July 5, 2007

well par It s not exactly like that. Its wto giving room to multinationals of wine friends, that's all and that's around from many years without the politics to notice It. Concept of nations btw as Fromm said a 50 years ago is also a collective naricisism, which when overextended brings to risks of war. Now interesting the story about Taiwan going up the in the china's japan's seas, but we knew this from coupla years, at least stratfor reported. What will happen then I do not like to forecast, as I smell I might be right, even with an unaproriate timing. Have a good day ahead. Am now focusing on markets.

PAR 08:44 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
European commission planning to spent € 1.3 billion a year to reduce domestic wine production in favor of imported wine. Pure soviet style plan economy better than old style Russian 5 year plans .

Como Perrie 08:42 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
and subprime fund related in florida reports the nyt not paying out customers...but this is getting global it looks

Syd 08:36 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Australia, U.S. Concerned Over China's Military Buildup
Australia and a top U.S. military official expressed concern Thursday that China's rapid military buildup and use of a missile in space could add to instability in the Asia-Pacific, and backed a greater role for Japan in regional security.
Releasing his government's first defense policy update since 2005, Prime Minister John Howard said China's economic rise was good for the world, but added a caution that it was also a pivotal player in several tense issues in the region.
"The pace and scope of its military modernization, particularly the development of new and disruptive capabilities such as the anti-satellite missile, could create misunderstandings and instability in the region," the policy report said.
Separately Thursday, the commander of the U.S.' Japan-based naval battle group voiced Washington's concern about China rapid military expansion. "Certainly we are a bit wary of China," Rear Adm. Rick Wren, the commander of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk's battle group, told The Associated Press. "They seem to be fairly opaque in communicating what they intend to do with this large military buildup."
Howard said China's economic rise was good for the world, but that "U.S.-China relations, China-Japan tensions and long-standing flash points in Taiwan and the Korean peninsula will require continuing careful management."

The report said mishandling tensions between Taiwan and China could have "disastrous consequences for the region."

The U.S. and Japan are stepping up efforts to build a joint missile defense system in Asia, partly as a bulwark against regional threats such as a nuclear-armed North Korea. Australia, a steadfast U.S. ally that has about 2,000 troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, is studying whether to participate in the defense shield.

PAR 08:35 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Rumors Trichet will say he is very pleased with a strong Euro just to counter Sarkozy.

Syd 08:31 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:02 they seem to be falling like flies here never mind the states
WA investors caught in ACR collapse
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/05/1942896.htm

Syd 08:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Nearly half of stocks fall 30% in past month
Almost half of the yuan-denominated A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell more than 30 percent in the past month, a news report said Thursday.
In a major correction that started on May 30 after China tripled the stamp tax on stock transactions, the key indexes for the two bourses dropped 12 percent and seven percent, respectively. Most of the stocks fared worse than the market, the Shanghai Security News reported.
Forty-five percent of the total, or 653 stocks dropped more than 30 percent; 901 stocks, or 62 percent, were down more than 20 percent; and 53 declined more than 50 percent.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/05/content_910679.htm

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:21 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
on Monday somebody here truly noted that nzdusd was a one-way ticket..

Kaunas DP 08:07 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shorting EUR/USD 1.3644 into Fridays NFP - GL

New Brighton gvm 08:04 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man - r u still holding your euro short? TIA

Sydney ACC 08:02 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
CBA evening report:
The Australian Fair Pay Commission increased the Federal Minimum Wage by 2.0%. According to Michael Blythe, our Chief Economist, the rise equates to an annualised increase of about 2.5% and covers about 12% of the workforce. The potential contribution to aggregate earnings growth over the next year is 0.1ppts. But the strength of labour demand at present means the decision is unlikely to have much impact on employment. And the size and coverage of the rise means that the impact on wages/prices should be limited. We nevertheless believe that Australia remains on track to record a 1.2% increase in the quarterly CPI and underlying inflation pressures (+0.8% QoQ) will be enough to cause the RBA to raise interest rates on 8 August. Stay long the AUD.

Japan's May leading index surprised (well and truly) to the downside by coming in 10% points below expectations at 30%. This surprise is because the leading index is rarely out from consensus. The result is significant for two reasons; (1) the leading index is excellent in picking turning points in Japan's economy, and it is not yet suggesting that the economy has recovered from the current period of softness in industrial production; (2) it has maintained a weak bias on the JPY because the BoJ appear to be even further away from a possible interest rate rise. The JPY exchange rate continues to adjust to the fall in Japan's terms of trade. EUR/JPY has convincingly broken through 167.00 and is on track to meet our forecasts of 172.80 by Sep and 176.80 by year-end. Prior to our currency revisions last week, we were forecasting 168.00 (by Sep) and 169.00 (by Dec) for EUR/JPY. NZD/JPY has traded through 96.00 and is on track to meet our new forecasts of 99.84 (by end Sep) and 100.10 (end Dec). Our earlier forecasts of 93.44 and 93.60 were achieved early. NZD/JPY is just shy of its previous October 1987 high of 96.68 but it is only a matter of time before this target is met.

There was speculation that the RBNZ may have used the quiet US Independence Day holiday trade to intervene in the currency market, but so far the RBNZ have been notably absent. Next week's New Zealand economic data will be of major interest. June house price series (Monday) and May retail sales (Thursday), followed the following week by the Q2 CPI. The NZD is likely to move more than a full cent on absorption of this data.

tehran liteforex 07:56 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
visit this site.
http://www.liteforex.org/eng/?uid=900000224

Syd 07:55 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Beijing urged to tax share trading gains
A top government think-tank says a capital gains tax should be considered to help cool the surging stock market, highlighting growing efforts in Beijing to prevent an asset bubble ...http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.0e28f4bc32cee73034ebbc0a53a0a0a0/?s=idx_Business

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:52 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
(DJ):Ex-MOF Sakakibara: Japan FX Stance Change Unlikely

IGM: In the perceived absence of any central bank selling activity to come, [NZD/USD] looks set for a bout of steady trade today. A fresh prop for the booming Kiwi came in the form of local data earlier, with NZ Jun ANZ commodity prices rising 6.1% versus 2.6% last. Bull targets come in at the post float high of 0.7841, while there is a reported barrier just above there at 0.7850. Apart from the spectre of possible RBNZ activity, there is little argument against a likely tripping of the latter option play over the coming sessions, although there appears insufficient appetite/interest in the broader market at present. The sustained 1.10 break in Aud/Nzd looks another fairly bullish signal for the king of the high yielders.

Gen dk 07:41 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:35 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
As per PAS comments a little while ago 8-)
Housewives of Tokyo and the yen
FT.com

Gnomes of Zurich ---> http://www.ifi.unizh.ch/CL/rinaldi/gnomes.html

Hong Kong Qindex 07:30 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : The current expected trading range is 2.1162 - 2.1488 and the mid-point reference of 2.1162 and 2.1488 is 2.1325.

Mtl JP 06:50 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:32 / Nature has an approximate 80/20 Rule (also a .214 or .236 FIB): what took 80 to build gets destroyed in 20, so if the six million subprimes took 4ys x 12 = 48 months, we could reasonably expect approximatly 10 months for them to blow up. Taking the BearSterns HF management June 29th shake-out date as starting point, one can start to speculate and make time bets.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.1435 - 1.1568 and the mid-point reference of 1.1435 and 1.1568 is 1.1501.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:35 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
it is very interesting that news on strengthening in Yen start to abound - - before these news would scare the carry flows and now they just go along with the rise in audjpy and nzdjpy to new highs..

Syd 06:32 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 06:16 GMT the thing is the same applies in the UK because most were chasing the market , the men in black try and mask the real situation , but we all know it will fester under the surface like it did in the US until the rate cycle catches up with them all, problem is rates take a few months to take affect and in between time the nasty little men do more damage. But still feel Pimco are talking their bond book as ultimately they are lucking for rate cuts in the US which cant see happening. Why would they set themselves up for the same thing to happen again , makes no sense

Hong Kong Qindex 06:22 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 114.96 - 116.60 and the mid-point reference of 114.96 and 116.60 is 115.78.

Como Perrie 06:19 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Mine attention is turning into the next coupla hours as there to be some mild market reasessment before the meeting rates today start. All in all at current difficult to see anything clearly, at least short term.

Mtl JP 06:16 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:38 / Brother Bill of PIMCO (now getting advice from uncle Al incidentaly) let this cat out of the bag in his Investment Outlook - July 2007 "..."Escalating delinquencies of course ultimately lead to escalating defaults. Currently 7% of subprime loans are in default. The percentage will grow and grow like a weed in your backyard tomato patch... ... ...Folks the point is that there are hundreds of billions of dollars of this toxic waste and whether or not they’re in CDOs or Bear Stearns hedge funds matters only to the extent of the timing of the unwind."

It would appear that there were approximately 6,000,000 (six million) sub-prime mortgages issued over the last few - 3-4 - years. (sub-prime mortgage = a loan of approximately 100% of value of a house to people who had no money and who signed on near or at the topof the market)

madrid mm 06:09 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
NKS article: Market attention will be turning to the BoJ meeting next Wed and Thurs, with all eyes focusing on whether any of the 9 members will propose raising interest rates. Even if a motion to raise interest rates is made, it will most likely be rejected by a majority of the board. Still, the proposal itself would be significant because it will add to expectations for a rate hike in August or soon.

WSJ: Japan's auto makers are taking increasing advantage of a weak yen and strong products, giving no quarter to their Detroit rivals as the US carmakers undertake costly restructuring efforts. Detroit execs have been complaining to the Bush administration for some time about the relative weakness of JPY against USD.

China's NDRC's Director Ma Kai, says China still has not brought its overheating economy under control - Beijing News.

UK Telegraph: BoE is set to raise interest rates to 5.75%, highest level in >6 years .The resilience of the economy to the steady increase in interest rates since August has led many in the markets to forecast that interest rates will eventually hit 6pc, or higher.

NZ Immigration Minister David Cunliffe says NZ will cut the number of migrants it allows into the country this year to help reduce inflation in the economy.

Australia has raised the minimum wage by AUD10.26 to AUD522.12 per week, warning a cautious approach is needed to avoid stoking inflationary pressures. Unions called for AUD28 a week raise.

South Korea Dep Finmin Cho Won-Dong says S Korea is preparing measures to support SME export companies in the H2 due to the firmer KRW against Yen, trading at its highest in almost 10 years.

Japan Cabinet Office has upgraded its assessment of the economy to "improving."

Relatively quiet session after US Independence Day holiday with focus on BoE likely rate hike and how "vigilant" will ECB President Trichet be at 1230GMT news conference after ECB leaves rates unchanged.

USD/JPY,EUR/JPY edging up ahead on fixing, with "a load" lighter after the huge eurozone coupons and redemptions have passed. USD/JPY hit highs of 122.82, but unable to match the fixing set at 122.87, with talks of good options related, Japan exporters offers, talks China capping ahead of 123.

Talks same Asian, options names were good buyers at 122.20 lows ahead of 122-125 DNT. Also talks of huge 122.50 expiries, so keeping the USD/JPY in range, though some focus on NKS report that BoJ member may propose a rate hike next week, which could put pressure on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY near all time highs, but capped ahead of 167.25 option barriers.

Cable remains firm ahead of BoE rate hike, still interest to buy on dips, with bids at 2.01 lows, and focus on GBP/JPY options at 247.55/ 248.00/ 248.50 and any buying from East Europeans, Russian.

EUR still capped ahead of 1.3650, eye ECB Trichet.

AUD little changed ahead of huge 0.8575 option expiries today, Tokyo cut, AUD/JPY 105.30/ 105.50 options, with Japanese good sellers.

NZD up on Swiss, German bids, but eye RBNZ rumours ahead of 0.7840-50.

Nikkei firmer +0.38% or 69.46 at 18,238, helped by weaker JPY as exporters stocks firm. JGBs lower today after losses in eurozone bonds (with US away) 10-yr JGBs yield +0.025% 1.920%

August Crude oil prices firm in Asia, after US holiday, at $71.40, -$0.01.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.62/122.82, EUR/USD 1.3607/1.3619, GBP/USD 2.0151/2.0169, USD/CHF 1.2164/1.2172, AUD/USD 0.8568/0.8584, NZD/USD 0.7808/0.7822.

madrid mm 06:08 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
helle hello hello FX Jedi,
Focus on the positive.

There's always some good in a bad situation. And there's always some bad in a good situation. It's the Yin Yang effect. So, what do you choose to focus on?

An old ditty says it this way:
"As you go through life, brother,
Whatever be your goal,
Keep your eye upon the doughnut,
And not upon the hole!"

Some people focus on the hole. But the strategy seldom if ever works. You've got to stop keeping track of the negatives.
8+-)

Mtl JP 06:00 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:11 / Waiting with baited breath for confirmation of the "American ambassador to Harare" forecasting prowess: "...the American ambassador to Harare, who forecast that inflation would hit 1,500,000% before the end of 2007. ..." - guardian

Mtl JP 05:54 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:11 / I have not noticed oil producers squealing about recieving US dollar going the path of the Zimbabwe dollar (USD->ZWD) for their crude (which is now near a 10-month high in terms of the USD), and neither are they making noises about increasing supply which could suggest theat they woulkd not object recieveing even more of the USD->ZWD for their crude.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:33 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan cabinet office says upgrades assessment of economy to 'improving'. (Reuters)

Syd 05:08 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:06 its normally greed they will kill the goose that lays the golden egg in the end

Sydney ACC 05:06 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:48 GMT July 5, 2007
It was I just read the comment printed earlier about profit-taking on the back of a 25% gain and thought, Nah! they won't do that, too greedy!

Syd 04:48 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:43 GMT looks like your on a roll :-)))))

Sydney ACC 04:43 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Why the carry-trade will end in tears, the beginning of the end will commence with someone other than the participants.

"The point is, ladies and gentleman, that 'greed' -- for lack of a better word -- is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed -- you mark my words -- will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

Gordon Gekko - 1987 "Wall Street"

Syd 04:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Property loss $1bn, rising
THE Australian arm of failed New Zealand property investment group Bridgecorp and a NSW Central Coast company have joined the wave of collapses sweeping the industry.
Total industry losses remain unclear - and could take months to establish - but they are believed to be well in excess of $1billion, affecting the life savings of tens of thousands of small retail investors.

Syd 03:55 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:52 take your point

shanghai bc 03:52 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:38 GMT July 5, 2007

What would you say if Chinese aircraft-carriers sail around the coastal areas of USA telling the world " we are really concened about the intentions of USA Navy"..For some folks hubris has no limit..

Sydney ACC 03:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:11 GMT July 5, 2007
I judge you may be taking an Asian centric view to the relationship between Japan and Europe. Both parties are fundamentally export oriented with a large proportion of their manufactured goods shipped overseas. Given that the JPY has weakened against the euro 7% this year and 20% since January 2006 the JPY depreciation puts Japan at a distinct advantge when they compete head to head in any market.
certainly helps Toyota trying to sell a Lexus when competing with Mercedes and BMW.

shanghai bc 03:45 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:32 GMT July 5, 2007

Long-term trend like this rarely ,if ever,turns around in forex market without long stick of cbs..

shanghai bc 03:43 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
London 02:33 GMT July 5, 2007

only a statement of fact ..Yen has been decling against Euro since 2001..Same for Dollar against Euro..Zimbabwe Dollar has been declining a bit faster though..

Syd 03:23 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
INTERVIEW: BOJ Rate Hike Pace May Pick Up Speed - Barclays

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--After likely raising interest rates in August, the Bank of Japan could hike again in December and in March 2008, spurred by a healthy global economy and recovering domestic labor market, Barclays Capital Chief JGB Strategist Masuhisa Kobayashi forecasts.

If this prediction of a more aggressive policy tightening is accepted by Japanese government bond market participants then the yield on benchmark 10-year JGBs could rise to 2.1% by the end of September and 2.3% by the end of December, he says.

At 0230 GMT, the 10-year yield was quoted at 1.915% after rising above 1.9% last month.

"There is a high possibility that the pace of rate increases by the BOJ accelerates (this fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2008)," Kobayashi told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview.

The strategist has previously forecast that the rate rise could come as early as July but now says that recent comments from BOJ officials suggest an August hike is more likely.

He said Japan's recovering labor market, which will boost consumption, justifies a rise in rates in August.

Market consensus is that the BOJ will likely raise rates next month but would then hike again once every six months.

But Kobayashi expects a faster pace of policy tightening, in part because he expects on-year changes in Japan's core consumer price index will turn positive around the autumn. Japan's nationwide core CPI fell 0.1% in May from a year earlier, marking the fourth straight month of decline.

Also, expectations could reappear in coming months of a rate rise in the U.S., which would give the BOJ added impetus to hike, he said.


Focus Shifting From CPI To Employment
Aside from the CPI, employment is key to sentiment in the domestic economy, Kobayashi said.
"(The strength in) Japan's economy could be confirmed by the tightening labor market and its ripple effect to wages. The increase in wages eventually leads to a rise in prices," he said.

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged in May at a nine-year low of 3.8%.

"The BOJ looks at the overall economy rather than solely relying on CPI when deciding the timing of a rate hike," as shown by recent board member's comments, he said.

BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui himself has recently said that the central bank may tighten policy even if the CPI stays weak.

And BOJ policy board member Kiyohiko Nishimura earlier this week said that the BOJ should adjust rates according to "general economic improvement" but not to a prefixed schedule.

He said political uncertainty, including falling support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, which is expected to suffer at Upper House election on July 29, is unlikely to change the August hike view. The more-power lower House is still dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party, Kobayashi said.

Syd 02:43 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
India Doctor In UK Terror Plots Detained In Brisbane
Australian authorities said they detained Indian doctor Muhammad Haneef, 27, late Monday at the Brisbane airport in connection with failed terror plots in Britain as he tried to board a flight based on information forwarded by British officials.


Syd 02:40 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
S Korea Deputy Fin Min: Yen-Won Cross Fall Hurting Local Cos

South Korea's Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy Cho Won-Dong said Thursday that the fall in the yen-won cross rate is hurting local industries, especially exporters.

"In this regard, the government will try to come up with measures to help local industries, which will be included in the economy policy blueprint for the second half of this year," said Cho.

The government will release forecasts of economic indicators for the second half and its economic policy blueprint July 11, the finance ministry said.


Syd 02:38 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
ABOARD THE USS KITTY HAWK (AP)--The United States is wary of China's rapid military buildup and will continue to expand its military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region as it interprets Beijing's intentions, a senior Navy officer said Thursday. Rear Adm. Rick Wren, commander of the Japan-based aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk's battle group, told The Associated Press that Washington wants China to become a stabilizing force in Asia, but that it has some reservations about Beijing's military expansion. "Certainly we are a bit wary of China," Wren told the AP aboard the carrier during a port visit to Sydney, Australia. "They seem to be fairly opaque in communicating what they intend to do with this large military buildup." "We need the Chinese to be a strong and stable partner in the global economy, as they already are," he said. "Certainly we need them to be a stabilizing force in this region. But until we can actually define that, we will continue to practice our skills and be ready for whatever the president calls on us to do."

London 02:33 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:11 GMT July 5, 2007

Who said only currencies like Zimbawe dollar or US dollar can decline against other currencies..

a little below the belt , a bit insulting to the US on GV

wellington am 01:42 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:47 GMT July 5, 2007

NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF just look ominous imho.

hk ab 01:32 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
bc, that means the e/j level has not reached to "concerned" phase yet? more upside of e/j from here?

shanghai bc 01:11 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   

Some 70% of Japan's trade is with Asia with China being Japan's No.1 trading partner..It is Asia and China that are vital for Japan's economy..With China feeling comfortable with Usd/Jpy115-125 range,the rest of Asia is unlikely to complain loudly..Japan's EU trade is not unimportant but it is not vital for Japan,so, Japan will at best pay a lip service..Not many US firms leave the country to re-settle in Japan..So Yen's range is not a concern for US politicos either..Who said only currencies like Zimbawe dollar or US dollar can decline against other currencies..

Mtl JP 01:10 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:58 / to me it simply means that if they raise, gbp will rise a bit more than it otherwise would before comes down. And if they don't raise, the fall will not be as ferocious had all 60 been on side.

Toronto MRC 01:10 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:47 GMT July 5, 2007

Japan is telegraphing it's next moves to allow for a civilized unwinding of the yen trade. This talk will be followed up with action. imho

Sydney ACC 01:00 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Tim Beasley, who wanted to raise interest rates last month, has said that the Bank of England should consider taking the unprecedented step of lifting rates by half a percentage point.

According to a survey of 60 economists by the financial news agency Bloomberg, 53 are expecting the bank to lift interest rates.

However, the decision comes as the first evidence starts to emerge that the four increases in interest rates since August are beginning to take their toll on consumers. Consumer confidence, for example, dropped last month for the first time since January, according to a survey from Nationwide.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/04/bcnrates104.xml

Hong Kong Qindex 00:58 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the market will dissipate its downward momentum when it is able to trade bewteen 122.98 - 123.20.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:55 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It will challenge the barrier at 1.2201 // 1.2216.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:54 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market will consolidate between 1.0542 - 1.0614 for the time being.

Syd 00:52 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:47 GMT your right , at the beginning of the week there seemed to be some loud noises coming out of Japan I suppose we have to wait till next month to see what game their up to :-))

Hong Kong Qindex 00:49 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It may retrace further down to 2.0124 // 2.0137.

Sydney ACC 00:47 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:33 GMT July 5, 2007
All this talk about Japanese interest rates being too low and dangers of the carrytrade are starting to p**s me off.
Everybody talks about the bleeding obvious but they don't do anything about it.
I shorted USD/JPY yesterday and cut last night.
Interesting how Kiwi has stalled don't you think?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:46 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is challenging the barrier at 0.8575 // 0.8583.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:36 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to test 1.3583 - 1.3601. My bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the gap 1.3618 - 1.3635.

Syd 00:33 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Keeping interest rates low endangers economy: Muto
Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Toshiro Muto said Tuesday that keeping interest rates low for too long could hurt economic growth.

"We need to pay attention to risks that could emerge should the stimulus from monetary policy become amplified," Muto said in a speech in Tokyo, according to a draft posted on the central bank's Web site.


http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20070704n3.html

London Neil 00:18 GMT July 5, 2007 Reply   
Wow havent been here for a while, hope everyone is well.

 




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