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Forex Forum Archive for 07/06/2007

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Sydney ACC 22:19 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd
Probably interest you - there is a review of Taleb's book The Black Swan in Saturday's Spectrum in the SMH.

Como Perrie 20:00 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:47 GMT July 6, 2007

The absent are never without fault, nor the present without excuse.
Benjamin Franklin

Como Perrie 19:52 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
AMS MAXXIM 18:53 GMT July 6, 2007

a freak topolotopop

dc CB 19:47 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
COT release delayed until Monday due to July 4 holiday. (as if they really need 3 full days to put that data together)

AMS MAXXIM 19:35 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:27 GMT July 6, 2007
U A inla W

Como Perrie 19:27 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
A small leak can sink a great ship.
Benjamin Franklin

hk ab 18:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
someone shouldring up BOJ andlook at their good wrk on e/j....

AMS MAXXIM 18:53 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Gbp_Usd popStAR on the daily.and will see what next week will bring.

enjoy your weekend.

Gen dk 18:47 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 15:15 //
very well put..
I was out today at NFP time and just watched the quotes on mobile.. it is the reality now thatUSD strength is demonstrated in the USDJPY and the crosses as the main theme for the markets ...
and it will remain like this I guess until some day Yen drops from 129 to 110 in 1 week -- then perhaps things will change and market will find a new theme to follow..

a tribute here to Oil Man's remarks that at the end only Trend followers will survive - - I had many times tried to fade both commodity ccy's and Yen crosses but it proves to be a tiring business instead of going with the trends in all Yen crosses..

Somewhere All Knowing 18:34 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
She's said the same to me about you, iw.

San Juan Lil 18:20 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 17:48 GMT July 6, 2007

That is very funny iw, lol...

Happy weekend everyone!

Helsinki iw 17:48 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sign of a multi-year top, anyone? The nickname of CNBC's anchorwoman Maria Bartiromo (ignoramus, btw), MoneyHoney, is now a registered trademark. Duh.

Cali mmm 17:32 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Good weekend to all!

Monaco Oil man 17:30 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:08 GMT July 6, 2007

My internet goes up and down every 20 mnts it seems, anyways , sorry for typo , guess the meaning was understood though..

Short e$ , long $cad...

Good Weekend.

LKWD JJ 17:08 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
oil man theres a typo in your gvi post.

The Netherlands Purk 16:58 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Yawn, see posts of the last Fridays: bugger will close near the highs and will continue to go up. But(t) we will see 16750 also again. It looks like MIW where not at home today.

Gen dk 16:35 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 16:28 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Have a nice w/e GVers. See you in 2 and a half weeks (unless my wife decides I'm not joining her in Turkey)

Makassar Alimin 16:24 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
looking for a short entry on usdcad next week, preferably close to 1.0510, see you all next week, have a good weekend

Gen dk 16:15 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is now working on the barrier at 1.0469 // 1.0490. The next downside barrier is 1.0409 // 1.0428.

Cali mmm 16:04 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, I guess that target is for next week? Thank you and have a good weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:03 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Either 1.0033 or 1.0204 is a medium term downside target for the next 20 - 40 trading days.

Monaco Oil man 16:02 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
1.3534 sounds good enough..

I have collected enough pips , to now look for bigger targets.
Good weekend..

Hong Kong Qindex 15:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Basically the market is pulling towards 1.0372 - 1.0406 trading range. A projected chart point is located at 1.0483.

Cali mmm 15:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oilman. What short term target do you have for you EURUSD Short? Any target for USDJPY also? TKS!

PAR 15:52 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Japan Abe s promise to raise consumption taxes opens the door for regime change . " Read my lips . I will raise taxes " . Things can only get better after Abe .

HK Kevin 15:50 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:47 GMT, both AUD & NZD seem loss their upward momentum in the 4-hr & 8-hr charts.

Monaco Oil man 15:47 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Looks like most the targets were hit , 1.3565 , but euro sitting at 1.3634..

A gift..Shorted.

Gen dk 15:31 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 15:29 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 15:24 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:15 GMT July 6, 2007

true, pretty important if weekly close is under previous low, can easily extend much lower next week, especially with gold bouncing and oil is grinding higher

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:15 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
newark 14:47 GMT

GBP/EURJPY are NEVER going to fall, just get used to that idea.
See, bad US data/Good US = good for EURJPY/GBPJY, even if USD gets sold on either. LoL

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:56 GMT, USD/CAD has recorded a new low, but no follow through. May be late NY time will show the real action.

Kuala Lumpur matttz71 15:10 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
thanks halifax

Hong Kong WT 15:04 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin
thank you

Makassar Alimin 14:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 14:52 GMT July 6, 2007

if it is too obvious, it's probably not

London NYAM 14:53 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Pretty key for GBP to stay above 2.0104 (?? more sideways action) and EUR above 1.3617 (probably will).

Hong Kong WT 14:52 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin
Our sponsor MIG quote 29 jun 2007 usd/can bottom 1.0461
so far the lowest is 1.0461 by another sponsor censored

I am lucky if these are double bottom.

Halifax CB 14:51 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Kuala Lumpur matttz71 13:25 GMT July 6, 2007
re. NZD/JPY, it's in a retrace now, but keep an eye on the rising resistance connecting the high on June 7 and June 24 on the dailies, it gives a reasonable estimate of where the interventions/retracements might occur. That pair is (over the period) growing at about 50%/year, I would expect RBNZ to start nudging it down to something more sustainable. I would guess (only a guess) that another good buy-in should occur in the 94-95 region, wait and see. Something to keep in mind is that a CB is free to intervene without announcing the fact, they only make announcements when it suits their purpose.

newark 14:47 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
So Im guessing the huge employment change report released 7am eastern time was the big report that caused the drop on usd.cad?? Any others agree and when what is this gbp/yen going to finally fall?

HK Kevin 14:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 14:37 GMT, thank you. new traders usually have the luck to win. Will try tiny position at 1.1452 if seen.

Richland QC Mailman 14:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hello folks!

Just sold a couple of euros 1.3634 stop 1.3655, target below 1.3600.

London NYAM 14:43 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd backed of fib on 2.0140 (.618 from swing hugh of 2.02 to low 2.0056): wonder if it will get back now...

Hong Kong WT 14:37 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
logically speaking
return back to 1.0500 then long usd/cad
or
when reach 1.0400 long usd/cad

I believe(only) 1.047X and 1.0469 will be today's bottom.
The temptation will drive me long usd/cad. stop will be 20pips below.

HK Kevin 14:31 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 12:39 GMT, what's your plan on USD/CAD?

Como Perrie 14:29 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
imvho market has went covered either ways

Gen dk 14:28 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 14:22 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD may encounuter resistance at 1.3348

London NYAM 13:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:56 GMT July 6, 2007 //Might be waiting a while crude at $74

PAR 13:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sold USDJPY at 123.45 . Looking to see what happens with japanese inflation if crude oil is at $100.

London NYAM 13:52 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Lovely move on EURGBP. GBPUSD looks on course for a rebound to 2.0115/30 while EURUSD may just skip a further drop altogether and try for 1.3660. USDJPY cant seem to capitalize on the news so we probably lose some footing below 123.00 (a buy?). See a similar .6780/90 level on the EURGBP but .6740 should hold.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:37 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is likely to consolidate between 1.0490* - 1.0506 - 1.0523* for the time being.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:35 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : If 0.9005 fails to hold, the market will trade in the range of 0.8963 - 0.8984.

toronto df 13:32 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Any idea where EURYEN is heading?????

Hong Kong Qindex 13:31 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The market is going to test the barrier at 1.4256 // 1.4273. The next targeting point is 1.4208.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:30 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CAD : The market is going to test 2.1112.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:28 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
CAD/CHF : The market is working on the barrier at 1.1591 // 1.1605. The next two upside targeting points are 1.1646 and 1.1700.

Kuala Lumpur matttz71 13:25 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
hi guys! any tips for NZD or AUD

Hong Kong Qindex 13:25 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY : A projected resistant level is positioning at 118.25 - 118.35. Projected barriers are located at 117.15 and 117.59.

Makassar Alimin 13:22 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 13:12 GMT July 6, 2007

BOJ will tell us that when in confusion with other currencies, the only sure thing is betting against the jpy :) noone cares about jpy and noone wants to do anything, not even the japanese housewives LOL

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:12 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds....
Watch out 0.6785( 50+100DMA) on EURGBP...good lvl to short with tight stops. GL

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:12 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:06 GMT

well of course, as expected US NFP data, significant upward revisions to past two months so sell USD, buy EUR, GBP and their crosses because ... the market loves "sure thing, one-way" bets.

LoL

PAR 13:06 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Looks like we have seen the high of the USD for the daY , from here can only go down ..

slv sam 13:05 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
usdcad looks going to test 1.03xx if today close <1.0560 which is most likely.GT

Belgrade Sammy 13:05 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
No can do . sry

Como Perrie 12:59 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
okidoki am now turning back onto some trading...have a nice w/e and bibi

PAR 12:49 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Big 1.3550 euro put option being protected .

Makassar Alimin 12:46 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
looking for an entry to go long gbp, i think gbp should hit good support today and ready to go up again, will try again if we see area between 1.9980-2.0020, stop then should be under 1.9960

Makassar Alimin 12:41 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
i cannot get it, everything is used as a reason to sell jpy nowadays...dont the world want jpy at all?

Hong Kong WT 12:39 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Loonie
My turn----bottom picking

Makassar Alimin 12:38 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
bullish the buck and somehow jpy is the unwanted child? LOL

Makassar Alimin 12:37 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
gbp stopped 2.0067

Como Perrie 12:37 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
me waiting eurusd 1.3550 and get out.

Como Perrie 12:36 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
I would say bloody bonds and subprime borowers..watch out later on.

KL KL 12:33 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
132 k
Last month revised +190K from 157K

Bloody good!! up USD down Gold

Makassar Alimin 12:24 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:19 GMT July 6, 2007

agree Perrie, personally thinking of just placing a limit buy 1.0508 with stop under previous low, leaving it on autopilot, see a reversing potential if somehow we manage to get above 1.0560

Como Perrie 12:19 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:03 GMT July 6, 2007

Think the canadian will be the less interesting in the current hour, maybe later. Watching majors at current is best.

Bets now allowed ahead of datas for intraday traders is the best practice here.

London 12:17 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
GET READY
US Jun Jobless Rate Due 8:30 AM EDT; Seen 4.5%
US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls Due 830 AM EDT; Seen +128K

Como Perrie 12:12 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
More likely values I do see for NFPs is some between 110 and 140K which will not provide imo more than some 20-30 pips moves, say in reference to the EurUsd. Less for UsdJpy maybe a 10 pips more for Gbp. Particlarly the lower reading, the higher readings if around 140K will provide Usd strenght for some 10-20 pips on most pairs.

Wider if for previous post readings.

Makassar Alimin 12:11 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
trying to catch some NFP volatility, small long gbp 2.0101 stop under 2.0070

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
regarding NFPs a minor fundamental analysis shows levels in between some 90K to 160K will not change basically trends, but provide room either ways for big micro swings. Out of those levels is food for thought for pfolio mechanics.

Jerusalem ML 12:07 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Anyone wanna bet on NFPayrolls with me???

MY BET - UP 192k

good luck
dollar on the offensive today and next week

G/luck!

Makassar Alimin 12:03 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
usdcad looks on its course to attack the previous low 1.0470

Como Perrie 11:53 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 11:18 GMT July 6, 2007

Yeap pity me.. Ive seen that potential over 117 coupla days ago but did not reverse, just flatten down as the shooting star figure from previous week was cleaned out as a downtrend potential stopping notch around 115 with subsequent retreat higher again. More or less as the UsdJpy as I see It.

Como Perrie 11:50 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
As I see Eurusd potential for extension below today low somewhere 1.3550 is fully intact from the trend established, so far the data risk is for catching stops behind 1.3620/30 too. So this is a pure market fishing enviroment we do assist at current. Not worth gambling with markets at current imvho.

Como Perrie 11:39 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Flat as a puppy - no stress.

GVI john 11:29 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
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Como Perrie 11:26 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Now lets go to the more important NFPs in approx one hour. Most short term is going to get out flattening the whole - except Don Chichote and Sancho Panza - big sweating driers are already positioned onto the bonds desks and the dow is controlling magnetudo levels for any further upsa/downsa opening gaps risks....

uh... would you think It comes out 125K as expected.

Como Perrie 11:21 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Apart from what technical you might try to say about the candian, fundamentally talking the canadian emplyment data were felt positive by the market and did not exceed the expectations embedded behind the daily smog.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:20 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:30 GMT July 5, 2007
GBP/CAD : The current expected trading range is 2.1162 - 2.1488 and the mid-point reference of 2.1162 and 2.1488 is 2.1325.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT July 5, 2007
CAD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.1435 - 1.1568 and the mid-point reference of 1.1435 and 1.1568 is 1.1501.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:22 GMT July 5, 2007
CAD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 114.96 - 116.60 and the mid-point reference of 114.96 and 116.60 is 115.78.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:28 GMT July 4, 2007
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.4273 - 1.4467 and the mid-point reference of 1.4273 and 1.467 is 1.4370.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 4, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading range is 1.0494 - 1.0640. The mid-point reference of 1.0494 and 1.0640 is 1.0567.

dc CB 11:19 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto braced for aluminium bid battle - Daily Telegraph

The Daily Telegraph reports Rio Tinto is drawing up plans to gatecrash the $28 bln hostile bid battle being fought between the North American miners Alcan (AL) and Alcoa (AA). Rio Tinto is understood to have engaged Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank to advise it on a range of options, including a bid for Alcan. Another possibility is a bid for Alcoa although this is thought less likely. The appointment of the two banks comes after the hiring of Morgan Stanley by Alcan, which is trying to fend off the unwelcome approach from Alcoa. People close to the process said last night that Rio Tinto had asked Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank to explore "strategic opportunities" in the mining sector, which is undergoing a round of global consolidation. Rio Tinto is thought to have already held tentative talks with Alcan's mgmt about a counter-offer for the Canadian aluminium miner, which received the $28 bln hostile bid from Alcoa at the beginning of May. It was not clear last night what stage the discussions between Rio Tinto and Alcan had reached. Alcan is attractive to Rio Tinto because it would bring valuable alumina and bauxite reserves. However, bankers with knowledge of Rio Tinto's plans said it is keen to get hold of Alcan and Alcoa's aluminium mining assets, although less likely to be interested in Alcoa's downstream metal production businesses and its packaging subsidiaries. Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) is also thought to have shown interest in making a counter offer for Alcan.

Makassar Alimin 11:18 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
cadjpy is on steroids :)

dc CB 11:15 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Canadian Economy Added 34,800 Jobs in June, Doubling Forecast

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a5v5zUEPkSqU&refer=canada

Lahore FM 11:06 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Cad jobs plus 34 k against plus 20 k expectation.

Como Perrie 11:03 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:05 GMT July 6, 2007

The bone was the candian big stops wows. 5 minutes 75 pips

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
tnx Deepak - got the point..

Mumbai Deepak 10:53 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Kapri…It is generally seen as.. The Yen depreciation is good for Japanese exporters and hence the “gradually moving up” Nikkei, when $-Y goes up.

Foreigners don’t invest in Nikkei and the locals don’t do it either. This is why Nikkei is one of the worst performing stock market in 2007 in USD terms.

Nigeria Basorun 10:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
anybody got an opinion with any refrence of were the cable might be head after the non farm and also loonie after employment change

madrid mm 10:42 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
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Sofia Kaprikorn 10:36 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
tnx john - I was looking the chart and just wanted kinda confirmation I get it right..

but then one can't use Nikkei as it is a lagging indicator ..

UK Alex 10:20 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Linda Goldberg and Eleanor Wiske Dillon say (in an article in the latest issue of a New York Fed journal): "Our analysis reveals that a USD depreciation is unlikely to close the trade gap single-handedly." They argue that although the weak USD has been a boon to foreign consumers of US products, because almost all US imports are invoiced in USDs, import prices exhibit an "insensitivity" to exchange rate changes. They note: "The unresponsiveness of US import prices to a USD depreciation suggests that any substantial trade balance adjustment achieved through exchange rate changes must come instead from a reduction in export prices." They also note: "Improvement in the trade balance following a USD depreciation will most likely be achieved instead through increased foreign purchases of newly affordable US goods. Nevertheless, if the nation's consumption patterns are not 'rebalanced' away from imports, then the total adjustment in US trade following the depreciation of the USD could still fall markedly short of expectations."

GVI john 10:11 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sofia-- It is generally felt that USD/JPY leads the Nikkei...



Como Perrie 10:05 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Nicknack paddywack give a dog a bone

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:01 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
gvi john //
if I may ask - as it is very interesting the Nikkei and usdjpy overlay chart - which is leading / lagging?

I have a strange feeling that actually usdjpy is leading the moves - and it might sound silly - but isn't it supposed to buy Yen to invest in Nikkei?

Another interesting thing is how we relate the EURGBP movement to the FTSE / DAX differential?

Como Perrie 09:51 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Taking a pause into later's data. Can in some one hour will not watch as flat there currently. Just NFPs later on. CU then

London NYAM 09:50 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:41 GMT July 6, 2007//Thanks. I use Fib targets on extensions of swings and retracements. Then i set up a matrix to determine the clusters. EW is just to determine the important swing highs/lows and also to weigh the targets according to likely position in the count (3s get higher targets 4s get lower retracements than 1s etc).

Commo has nicely realigned my attention to the JPY which is pobably going to get back into action after a week of limited consolidation. So scratch my GBPJPY s/t short.

Commo// If we get a dropp becuase of the numbers it would be a buying opportunity imo. s/t your stop area predictions look good and could get us some buytime around the 122.40 to 122.70 (if it gets there as it doesnt have to especially if the numbers are particularly strong).

Como Perrie 09:47 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
In between am settip up some works from larger into some daily pipdose menthality. Yet too precise was yesterday twice in calculations, coupla pips of error on eurusd just one onto cable. Room to improove. But good today friday and tomorrow triple7 good for bike/wine tour then. At least is friday finally.

Como Perrie 09:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
EurUsd similarily has yet risk to develop further lower late today provided 1.3610/20 holds. Am suspicius this NFP will not deviate much from expectations, hence some 30 pips fast risks around there if market stays as current.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:41 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi NYAM,
yes - I see your point - I actually based my analysis attempt on the ranges of the consolidation - high 247.92 // and low around 246.55 --
>> standard idea is that one needs to see a breakout of the Resistance - it actually looks more like Ascending Triangle - as the top is almost flat and the Support line is rising - so the Upside break is Favoured...

btw - yesterday you spotted NZD Res levels very nicely..
was it some EW + Fib levels that you used for your analysis?

Como Perrie 09:40 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
In general do see the stops onto UsdJpy to have been raised into 122.60/90 area ahead of NFPs. The latter is to me the most important indicator, bond market particularly - hence forex and equities follows.

London NYAM 09:38 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
er tomorrow.

Como Perrie 09:38 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
tks NYAm let's see how we are going to position into US opening the whole, at least gets interesting. As you know am larger looking things and act accordingly, no big in chaotic sides except some at times to me as am taking those sides just as the classic side in technical analysis and see how flirts with stops upsa downsa ya know man

London NYAM 09:38 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
By the way for Zeus and Bobby: Today is 07/07/07.
God bless ;)

London NYAM 09:35 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Perrie// (usdjpy now at 123.17) I suspect that since the trend line held (8hr chart) we will continue up from here towards 125.00 then test the fib zone of 126.50/90. Can't say how it will behave but s/t if 123.00 holds up then we take out 124.00. IMO. The limited retrace actually sems to me to be an indication that the upside targets will get less build. Your point on two-way is well taken. The move up so far is rather grudging but the last leg has potential to spring it out top-side.

Como Perrie 09:16 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
2 NYAM and/or Oil Man...

am now charting lotsa this usdjpy..very double sided at current...an intermediate major area of reference am seeing is just notch below around 123.00/10 ..do you see It straight up into say 125/129 or a correction has to unfold before It should happen I guess

PAR 09:05 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Uk manufacturing got boosted by military equipment . A strong war economy ,but who will pay the bill ?

The Netherlands Purk 09:02 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Question for me is where will MIW meet MIB today in e/j, and do the MIW stand a chance?
Orders are ready to short....

London NYAM 08:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
I should add 'in my experience' as others may have more positive feedback on a triple top. It just seems you need to bring in other indicators or larger patterns.

JKT ACDC 08:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi All,

maybe you all can help here. Yesterday and now DATA from UK was good for GBP why is it then it is not able to captilise on this and go higher??

London NYAM 08:55 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:44 GMT July 6, 2007
GBPJPY - 4h chart
There arent any three attempts then down (triple-top) rules on their own that seem to work as you know from wedge formations sometimes they create fake outs to the downside then the real move is up (or vice versa if momentum stalls) It does look an interesting sell to me though.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:44 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY - 4h chart
we have a High at 247.92 - today is 3rd attempt to break the High
is it correct to assume that if the 3rd attempt fails we have downside?

on the Down side we can see SAR at 246.55 - and better 55 MA - 246.70
it is consolidating right now and seems the Yen rethoric in recent days is not causing any concerns..
- so if we have a break of 247.92 - next stop would be 249?

and if 246.70 gives way - next Support is the 244 Low
>I'm not trading it - just post this to get any feedback on my analysis attempt.

PAR 08:43 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
German indus order will be even stronger than UK manuf data which were the strongest since 2001 .

NY tim 08:39 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
will USD/CHF crack 1.22 - ?

PAR 08:26 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Looking for better than expected UK ind prod and manuf fig. This should give GBP a boost .

Como Perrie 08:20 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) - Hundreds of dead seabirds that washed up along the Southeast coast in recent weeks apparently starved to death, but experts don't know why.

The deaths of the birds - similar to gulls and called greater shearwaters - have wildlife officials worried about possible changes in the ocean that could have affected the fish that the birds usually eat.

"It's got a lot of folks talking and wondering," said Jennifer Koches, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. "Is this a canary in the coal mine issue? Is there something that serious going on out in the ocean that it should be causing us serious alarm?"

An estimated 1,000 of the dead birds have been found from the Bahamas to Florida and north to the Carolinas, said Craig Watson, a wildlife biologist with the Fish and Wildlife Service.

Como Perrie 08:17 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
UBS replaces CEO Wuffli after setbacks
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:45 PM ET Jul 5, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- UBS AG said Friday it has removed Chief Executive Peter Wuffli after a series of setbacks, including a blowup of an internal hedge fund, and replaced him with Deputy Chief Executive Marcel Rohner.

London NYAM 08:13 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
closed all GBPUSD shorts at 2.0095

Gen dk 07:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:54 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The theory -

If the jobs report proves strong, interest rates will extend their climb. But a weak report would catch the bond market by surprise, meaning lower rates and in turn declines for the dollar and stocks.

The practice - " Run Forrest , run !!" 8+-) And be prepared for the unexpected.

madrid mm 07:26 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
Consensus 125,000

Unemployment Rate - Level
Consensus 4.5 %

Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change
Consensus 0.3 %

Average Workweek - Level
Consensus 33.9 hrs
Bloomberg

Syd 06:43 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
BRISBANE (AP)--Australian police launched fresh raids Friday in connection with the failed terrorist plot in Britain, seizing computer files and other material from two hospitals in western Australia, the federal police chief said.

Australian Federal Police Commissioner Mick Keelty said computers taken from the hospitals, in the Western Australia state capital of Perth and the Outback mining town of Kalgoorlie, had come into contact with a suspect in the plot arrested in Australia earlier this week.

He said the investigation in Australia - which started with the arrest on Monday of Indian doctor Muhammad Haneef in Queensland state - had also widened to a third state, New South Wales.

AGVD MAXXIM 06:33 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:40 GMT July 6, 2007

perhapsy next level 196.57

Kaunas DP 06:28 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Kaunas DP 08:07 GMT July 5, 2007
shorting EUR/USD 1.3644 into Fridays NFP - GL


took profit 1.3584

madrid mm 06:04 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Thta is intereting -----> Economist magazine's latest Big Mac index. NZD is 73.0% overvalued against USD Most wealthy countries have currencies that are overvalued against USD, including the EUR by 22% and the GBP by 18%, while JPY is undervalued by 33% vs USD.

Nestle Chairman Peter Brabeck, in FT, says food prices are set for a period of "significant and long-lasting" inflation because of demand from China and India and the use of crops for biofuels.

All eyes on US NFP due tonight, expecting a firm number after strong ADP numbers and ISM Non-Manufacturing

USD/JPY continues to edge higher to day highs of 123.16 during thin Tokyo lunch hours, on back of Cross/JPY demand, as Japanese investors, funds, Asian accounts continue to buy Cross/JPY and interbank stoploss buying.

Talks of huge 121.75-123.25, rumoured expiry next week on July11, with topside seen vulnerable.EUR/JPY hit all time highs of 167.45, after stoploss hit above yesterday's all time highs of 167.29, more options at 167.50/ 168.00.

AUD/JPY to 16-year highs of 105.51 after 105.50 triggers taken out, to its highest level since 1991 October highs of 106.30.

GBP/JPY firmer on expectation of more BoE hike to 6%, with focus on 15-yr highs 247.97 and options at 248.00.

EUR supported on EUR/JPY buying, good bids at 1.3580, while GBP still finding bids at 2.0080-00, eye any fresh buying from East Europeans/ Russian accounts again.

Some focus on CNY as both US Democrats frontrunner Clinton/ Barak back China bill, and again any usual talks of PBoC interest rate, CNY moves being a Friday.

NZD/USD, AUD/USD to be supported by good waves of buying from Chinese, Asian accounts and Japanese investors, putting bids at 0.7810-20 in Kiwi, despite rounds of selling from US models, big German and Big 4 Aust banks. No signs of RBNZ, but likely to be watching Kiwi like a hawk. NZD/USD off its 22-year highs of 0.7880, more options at 0.79 handle.

AUD/USD bids at 0.8540-50, with Japanese buying AUD/USD, AUD/JPY.

Nikkei a touch lower -0.47% or 85pts at 18,135. JGBs under pressure on UST falls, 10-yr yield +0.015 at 1.935%. August crude oil remains firm in Asia, $71.80, -$0.01.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.86/123.16, EUR/USD 1.3591/1.3600, GBP/USD 2.0100/2.0120, USD/CHF 1.2175/1.2188, AUD/USD 0.8557/0.8576, NZD/USD 0.7818/0.7837.

boy wonder 05:58 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The ADP report has pre-NFP positioning closer to USD bias to neutralize the strong report.

madrid mm 05:58 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Japanese fund managers will launch more than 1.4 trillion yen ($11.4 billion) of foreign-currency trusts before the end of this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``Japanese investors are constantly sending money abroad to invest in high-yielding investment trust funds overseas,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $1 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The summer bonus season has not finished yet. This will keep pushing down the yen,'' to 125 per dollar and 170 a euro by year-end.

That s a lot of Zimbabwean currency !!!!!

madrid mm 05:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
hello people from around the world !!!
8+-)

Mumbai NS 05:43 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Yeah wuld agree think fillip comes from usdjpy which can brk out gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 05:40 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Well the e/j is just cruising into the next zone.
And the way the cruising goes it is like 16755-16788 today. But maybe there is somebody in the middle taking it back to 167 again, and we can start all over again...

Sydney ACC 05:20 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The carry trade is getting to be like the weather, everyone talks about it but there's nothing they can do about it.

Makassar Alimin 05:18 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 05:11 GMT July 6, 2007

still think it is ranging 2.0090-2.0130, will play the breakout after NFP later, got a feeling it could go down but close back around 2.0090, good luck

bbsapul 05:11 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
hi alimin:

what do you think of gbp/usd right now?

Makassar Alimin 05:08 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
this whole yen carry train is unbelievable...japan must be flooded with tourists

Toronto MRC 04:53 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 04:41 GMT July 6, 2007
The margin is the one thing that remains the same, labour, cost of input depend on local input cost. It is a pretty good measure of P.P.P. but in our business that can take a very long tme normalize. P.P.P can be better compared with goods trading freely between countries in a competitive market.

Brisbane Flip 04:43 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
acc With the amount of variety and quality in the food business these days MacDonalds is surely for the very young, very poor or very drunk. If anyone is prepared to pay USD 5.95 or NZ 7.50 for a Big Mac they should be committed.

Hong Kong Ahe 04:41 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Big Mac Index is not reliable. Big Mac in Hong Kong is HKD13.30 or USD1.67. Many ingredients of a Big Mac are supplied from local suppliers of each country and not all imported from US. The index assumes the cost and profit margin of a Big Mac of all other country to be the same as the one in US is also wrong. It extrapolates the PPP (Purchasing Price Parity) exchange rate by a simple forumula is not reliable. It is a humorous illustration only.

Toronto MRC 04:28 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Obama and Clinton back sanctions on China.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e628b512-2b20-11dc-85f9-000b5df10621.html

dc CB 04:22 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Mom and Pop Traders Pass Chicago in Yen Sales (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aFArnlyQJ4_c&refer=japan

Syd 04:14 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Yellen Favors "Asymmetric Policy Tilt", Inflation Bias


SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--U.S. monetary policy should be biased toward fighting inflation while not posing unnecessary risks to growth, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Friday.

In text of a speech to a conference in Singapore, she said that upside risks to inflation remain and her "best guess" is that the pace of real gross domestic product growth in the U.S. "will pick up a bit in 2007 to a rate just below potential."

"An 'asymmetric policy tilt' seems appropriate given the upside risks to inflation," she said via teleconference. "However, it is also essential that policy retain considerable flexibility in responding to emerging data."

Yellen also said investors may be underestimating the risks of popular "carry trades" - which sell low interest-rate currencies like the yen and buy higher-yielding assets. But she also said she expects the economic fallout from the crisis in subprime mortgages to be limited.

Yellen is the first senior Fed official to speak since the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a slightly less hawkish stance last week.


hk ab 03:40 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Revdax//with this rate of Yuan rise, HK big mac will soon be the cheapest, LOL.

Syd 02:57 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Reflecting cooling enthusiasm for China stocks, number of new securities accounts being opened by investors steadily dropping in recent weeks; latest official data show 70,132 new A-share accounts were opened Wednesday, lowest daily number in around 5 months, also sharply lower vs 367,466 A-share accounts opened on May 29, when key Shanghai Composite Index surged to record high 4335.96. "Fewer new entrants into the market means less fresh money inflows," says Chen Huiqin at Huatai Securities; notes number of new A-share accounts being opened daily may keep falling as China shares may stay in correction next 2-3 months. "Concerns over further policy tightening and a flood of big IPOs will deter new investors from jumping into the stock market," she adds. Shanghai Composite now down 0.2% at 3609.29

HK REVDAX 02:56 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Nasdaq-related social problems, not programs

HK REVDAX 02:55 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:51//A Big Mac burger in China sells for US$1.5. Thus either the Chinese RMB is undervalued or the US$ is overvalued. The US Fed Chairman Greenie Span was leading the world into galloping inflation in order to rescue the Nasdaq-related social programs in the US.

Sydney ACC 01:51 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The Big Mac index at The Economist indicates a burger in NZ costs the equivalent of USD 5.89 which makes it thye most expensive in the world. In Australia they state it is ther equivalent of USD 2.95.
Does anybody know what a Big Mac costs in NZ?
Based on the current exchange rate it would be NZD 7.50.

Syd 01:39 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Expert warns on jihadist doctors
A former Islamist radical has warned that a key extremist group operating in Australia and the UK numbers many doctors and engineers among its leadership.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/06/1971370.htm

Syd 00:55 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Eastern Europe's economies
Worrying about a crash
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9443551

Syd 00:45 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
The Big Mac Index
Beefed up
http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9433804

Sydney ACC 00:24 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
On Bloomberg i read an article where the equity market in Japanwill be dragged down today by retail stocks. It says that the Japanese government is considering raising the consumption tax.
Interesting! On the one hand the government keeps lobbying the BoJ to refrain from increasing interest rates and on the other everytime the government has increased the tax it has sent the economy back into recession.

Sydney ACC 00:17 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
City superwoman Nicola Horlick blamed heightened concerns over hedge funds and the subprime market as her new alternative asset fund of funds raised just over half the £250m it had been aiming for.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/05/cnhorlick105.xml

Toronto MRC 00:00 GMT July 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:39 GMT July 5, 2007

I'm floating in the audjpy pond waiting for such a wave. BOJ participants are telegraphing and at some point would be more then happy to sell aud nzd to buy yen just to remind the market this is not a one way street.

Some interesting observations; oil moves higher but gold moving down China seems to have a slow leak in its market as investors are not rushing in on every dip usd weakness is now providing some support for the yen.

If it wasn't for some good numbers out of the US and rising bond yields we might have seen the 122.10 122.20 area punctured. It feels to me like players are slowly taking some risk off the table at least at this point it is civilized but a further fall in the Shanghai index or a break down in gold prices could accelerate things. imho

 




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