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Forex Forum Archive for 07/08/2007

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Syd 23:59 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Japanese core machinery orders rose 5.9% in May from the previous month, the government said Monday, suggesting still-robust business investment will likely continue supporting country's five-year economic expansion.
Japan's money supply, M2 plus certificates of deposit, grew 1.8% in June, faster than May's revised 1.5% rise, the Bank of Japan said Monday.

That was faster than the 1.5% growth forecast on average by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei.

The M2 plus CDs figure includes money in time deposits and CDs, as well as cash and demand deposits.

Broad liquidity rose 3.6% on year in June, compared with 3.1% on-year growth in May. Broad liquidity covers a wider range of financial assets, including investment trusts and government bonds.

The gain was much larger than the average 2.6% rise forecast by economists surveyed by Nikkei and Dow Jones Newswires.

AMS MAXXIM 23:47 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 17:29 GMT July 8, 2007
who made you commandeur 64

Syd 23:15 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
UK Business Confidence Hits 16-Month Low - Survey

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. business confidence is at its lowest in 16 months as concern about rising interest rates hits the services sector, a survey by U.K. banking group Lloyds TSB said Monday.

The Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Business Barometer showed that, on balance, 45% of companies surveyed in June expect their business activity to increase over the next year, down from 61% a month earlier. And only 39% of service-sector firms were optimistic, down from 76% in May.
"Sentiment seems to be that the combination of higher interest rates, a stronger pound and a re-acceleration of input costs will squeeze profit margins," said Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets

Syd 23:01 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
``We reckon the rate will be 5 percent by the year end,'' said Rossa White, an economist at Davy Stockbrokers in Dublin. ``We assume that the increase in unemployment is related to the decline in housing activity.''

Growth is slowing in Ireland as eight European Central Bank interest-rate increases since late 2005 crimp demand for property in a country where construction accounts for about a quarter of the economy, double the EU average.

Irish homebuilders registered 61 percent fewer properties in June, the biggest annual decline on record, as rising borrowing costs curbed demand.

Syd 22:57 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Yuan Strength Fails to Quiet Sanction-Seeking U.S. Lawmakers

Syd 22:26 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:19 you know whats going to happen , which isnt so far fetched , Kiwi Dollar could be the next global crisis in the making due to the stupid japanese housewives getting away with treating the japanese currency like a gambling chip

Sydney ACC 22:19 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd,Last week NZ Herald published a May survey by financial analysts JDJL showed it took nearly all the average weekly Auckland take-home pay (99.5 per cent) to make a mortgage repayment on a median house. For all of New Zealand the figure was 74 per cent, while Australians forked out just 34.5 per cent of their weekly earnings.

Syd 22:14 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC well was looking to put the house on the Market but having second thoughts, not sure what can be done unless there is a house collapse but thats looking less likely too at the moment but for sure it will happen if rates go up further - many are talking NZ has one foot in the grave already

Sydney ACC 21:49 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:43 GMT July 8, 2007
Exactly. This week is the first anniversary of our move. Last year we moved one street away from where we previously lived, it cost AUD 85,000 in stamp duty, AUD 6,000 for removalists and AUD25,000 for estate agents and advertising.
If I didn't have to pay stamp duty i could have put in a pool.

Syd 21:47 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Companies based in or near the western Japanese city of Osaka are increasingly worried that the yen might suddenly strengthen, a senior official of the Bank of Japan said Friday.
"Managers at Osaka-based companies are now expressing concern about an abrupt reversal of the recent trend of the yen," the manager of the Osaka branch of the central bank, Masahiro Samejima, told a news conference.

"The yen has so far been staying at levels that are beyond the budgeted export hedging rate, thereby yielding a net positive impact on companies in this region, even after taking into account negative effects such as higher cost of imported products," Samejima said.

Osaka-based companies apparently wish the Bank of Japan to adjust interest rates "carefully, in accordance with the pace of the improvement" of the economy, he said.

"However, companies in general seem to have absorbed [the adverse effects of] interest rates so far relatively well."

Makers of electronic devices based in the Osaka area, while undergoing mild adjustments in their production to deal with weaker cellphone output and lower investment abroad in flat panels, think that demand for electronic devices will recover, Samejima said.

Syd 21:43 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC I was working that out over the weekend, there is relief for first time buyers , but its getting ridiculous the costs to move your property you can sell thinking you have a good deal then be hit for well on $100.000 costs when re-purchasing crazy, I just dont know how it will be resolved quite honest .

As 'China effect' reverses, inflation threatens

Sydney ACC 21:36 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:13 GMT July 8, 2007
The single most expensive item when buying a property is state stamp duty. In Sydney where the median residential property price exceeds AUD 500,000, a buyer pays in excess of 4% of the prurchase price. In the eastern suburbs or north shore where more of the desirable properties are located and prices average between AUD 1 million and AUD 2 million stamp duty on a AUD 2 million property is AUD 95,500.

Syd 21:13 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
MORE than one in four Sydney households is battling to keep a roof over its head.
The Housing Industry Association said 26.8 per cent of Sydney households were battling to pay rent or the mortgage, or 370,000 homes where affordability is a big issue.
"Housing stress" is when more than 30 per cent of a household budget pays accommodation.
The HIA sums are based on latest census results.
A total of 560,000 households around the state were fighting to keep accommodation, and NSW had five of the nation's 10 worst areas rated on lack of housing affordability.
"Driving this unacceptable level of housing stress is the dramatic increase in infrastructure charges and taxes which are adding to mortgage payments," HIA executive director Graham Wolfe said.
Insolvencies soar to record level
LABOR today called on the Howard Government to urgently address the escalating housing affordability crisis, with new figures showing insolvency levels at a record high.

Figures released yesterday by the Insolvency and Trustee Service of Australia (ITSA) show there were 31,964 personal insolvencies across Australia in the 2006/07 financial year - a rise of 16.9 per cent on the previous year.

A further breakdown shows insolvency levels in NSW - where housing is most expensive - rose by 26 per cent in the last financial year and by more than 50 per cent in the last two years.

In Victoria, insolvency levels jumped by 22 per cent in the last year and by 35 per cent in the last two years.

Both state levels are at record highs.

Labor's shadow treasurer Wayne Swan said the new figures showed just how much pain Australian families were under.

"There is no such thing as a small home loan anymore and no such thing as a small interest rate rise,'' Mr Swan told journalists in Brisbane today.

"And the biggest contributor to this financial pressure on Australian families has been the eight interest rate rises on (Prime Minister) John Howard's watch.''

Mr Swan called on the government to accept responsibility and to urgently act to bring housing affordability under control.

"When John Howard says that Australian working families have never been better off, these figures demonstrate just how out of touch John Howard is,'' Mr Swan said.

"This is urgent.

"We need the commonwealth government to put up its hand and show some political leadership and to work with the states and local government and the business community to put in place a long-term plan to ease the financial strain on Australian families.

"That means putting downward pressure on interest rates through a range of policies.

"It also means cooperating with state and local government and the business community to help struggling home buyers.''

Labor will hold a housing affordability summit in Canberra later this month.

Syd 20:55 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Take out a multi-currency loan
Interest rates are lower in some countries – 0.5% in Japan and 2.5% in Switzerland. But if sterling weakens against the currency in which you borrow, your debt will go up. If your loan is in euros, say, but you make repayments in sterling you can hedge against fluctuations by taking out a forward contract to fix the exchange rate for up to two years.

NYC 20:22 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
GD, jusdging by the rates in Aussie/NZ, no reaction.

Vienna GD 20:02 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 18:36 GMT July 8, 2007
Any comments on w/e Nikkei article and therefore speculation about MOF/BOJ non-verbal intervention? Can this be the end of carry trades? tia!

Caba ... seems you are kidding. Go back in history or archives and try to find the first point when they started to talk of a stronger yen. They were talking all the time about it ... but just to feed the sheep, to keep the sheep shorting the yen (short usdjpy, eurjpy etc.). That way they always kept the game going on - and they will keep it going on, because there are at least two STRONG and anything else overwhelming reasons: with a weaker yen da boyz have to pay back less thena their original debt and second they earn nice profits in highler yielding currencies. Da boyz would be stupid in fact not to do anything possible (f.e. continue to feed the sheeps and lemmings) to prolong that very profitable game. And i don't even talk here about the games between the us and japanese governments. I just talk about the wallstreet boyz.
IMHO to short the yen (short usdjpy, eurjpy etc.) makes only sense for very shortterm trades and only if the trend is too stretched. Anything else IMHO is stupid - because it means to be a sheep. Not?!

The Netherlands Purk 19:40 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
MIB will love those stories Caba and they will cheerfully buy some more whatever it is they can short the yen with.
After Fridays push up and some more push up, we will go up again today looking for fresh zones.
But (t) we will see a very big correction coming up, and i will be there to play it. Already took a few shorts, and will be ready to short again. MIB are ready to take any s/l, and after that well who knows what will be the target.

Cambridge Zoltan 19:11 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 19:07 GMT July 8, 2007 :

Thanks Caba, much appreciated!

Philadelphia Caba 19:07 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
An article in Saturday"s Nikkei notes that the dwindling value of the Japanese Yen on a trade weighed basis has put the JPY at the lowest level in 22 years. The article states that while in the past Japanese authorities and Japanese industry
thought that a strong JPY was bad and a weak JPY was good, those perceptions are starting to change. The article goes on to say that the weak JPY has dented Japanese purchasing power and is starting to impact on the quality of life by
pushing up the price of all imports. The weak JPY is also resulting in a diminishing international presence of Japan. Gyoten Toyoo, a former vice-minister of finance for international affairs was quoted in the article as saying: "A weak yen will reduce Japan"s presence in the world economy in the long run and thereby lower its international clout. That"s what a weak currency means." The article points out that the Yen"s weakness is amplifying the negative effects on Japan's position in the world. Japan's per-capita gross
domestic product in dollar terms, which was the highest in the world in 1993, dropped to the 14th in 2005 and probably fell further to somewhere around the 18th slot in 2006, behind France and Germany. The article concludes by saying
"the yen's persistent weakness is now starting to unnerve Japanese. It is time for the nation to ask whether a weak yen really in its best interest." Sources in Tokyo say Japanese authorities are starting to come around to the view that the JPY weakness is starting to go too far. The USD/JPY had a brief period of weakness on Friday in the wake of comments from Japanese PM Abe warning about JPY volatility and that the JPY should reflect fundamentals. Perhaps we will start to hear more warnings from Japanese officials and this
could lead to speculation that the MOF/BOJ will start to unload the massive amount of US dollars bought in their interventions to keep the JPY weak a few years ago. Officials in the US and EZ were not too thrilled about the MOF"s
efforts to weaken the JPY back then, but they presumably would welcome, encourage and perhaps help the efforts by the MOJ and BOJ to help curb JPY weakness and help strengthen the JPY. (DailyFX comment)

Makassar Alimin 19:06 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 18:36 GMT July 8, 2007

they have been singing the same song for some time now and warning about two-way risk

maybe someone can tell them two-way risk my a$$, the yen keeps going down and until they do some concrete action, then nobody is gonna believe what they say

Cambridge Zoltan 19:00 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 18:36 GMT July 8, 2007:

Do you have a link for that article? Thanks!

Philadelphia Caba 18:49 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
placed two kiwi sell orders at .7850 & .7870, with s/l above .7900 for sun/mon opening..

Philadelphia Caba 18:36 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Any comments on w/e Nikkei article and therefore speculation about MOF/BOJ non-verbal intervention? Can this be the end of carry trades? tia!

Como Perrie 18:19 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
BRUSSELS (AP)--France's crusading new president will charge Monday into a carefully balanced set of economic rules designed to keep the currency his nation shares with 12 other countries stable and trusted.

Como Perrie 17:50 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 17:47 GMT July 8, 2007

Not drinking purk. Today was my gardening day and am just onto computers to work onto some. My dutch is computer generated so consider the limits of cumputer believers :)) Have a good day

Como Perrie 17:48 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
If I do looks at eurusd dailies do have strange mixing type of countings as from the EW to chaos impulsive wevelets.

Larger talking for example we might go for a double top and back 1.3250.

Drop below 1.3250 for 1.2500 or so.

While if consider a chaotical eviroment we have reached the top and we are into congestion mode. More or less this is the time when those using chaos are having tough times. So watch out for the many advisors here as we all are erratic in nature and returns.

The Netherlands Purk 17:47 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 17:29 GMT July 8, 2007

Drinking and try to speak Dutch do not go hand in hand....

Como Perrie 17:43 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
In larger time frames I do see the eurusd still long from approx. 1.3480, but suspect with some decent profit taking yet unshown into the charts. Still short term am either ways sided as the late friday counts are mostly wrong, so think liquidity and big funds absent. Do suspect an interesting monday ahead.

Como Perrie 17:29 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
AMS MAXXIM 10:57 GMT July 8, 2007
Ja akkoord ga. De briefings zijn goede manier samen te werken en grafieken voor de onbekende micro- termijn voor ons te testen. Verschillend van egoïstische shortsighted is de grote investering en het pfoliobeheer waar de dingen op een grotere term horizon op basis van het einde van chaotical milieu's voorspelbaar zijn. Nobel voor phisics toonde het aan en won de prijs in 1994. Ook rond teveel die hun trucs van onzekerheid verkopen die als nasdaq van eens kijkt. Wanneer de geheimen de magische dalingen groot in waarde worden verteld, binnen wat tijd natuurlijk. Zie voor nu de waaier voor maandag en hebben vooruit een goede week.

Como Perrie 17:09 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
It's briefing time.

madrid mm 14:51 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
July: A Positive Month for USD/JPY


madrid mm 14:48 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
At the end of the day, as most of the major economic players keep rising their interest rates,ie, USA, EU, GBP, Oz, etc.... Japan will keep attracting speculators to "promote" carry trade ! 8+-)

It sounds like a holiday destination -
Hello and welCome to Japan!
Borrow n load yourelf in YEN at low interest rate
Invest in other currencies at high interest rate
Enjoy your stay in the sunrise land.

I read somewhere that there's a famous rhyme in Japan that goes, "Some fools dance while some fools watch; if we're all to be fools, then let's all dance!"

The Netherlands Purk 13:54 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Ha die MAXXIM, enjoying the fine weather? Trading the impossible into possible these days...
Enige gedachten inzake cabelito?

Goede zondag!

AMS MAXXIM 10:57 GMT July 8, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:52 GMT July 6, 2007
Alleen voor Hoger opGEleiden
ALLESMAGMVN HIGHER EDUCATHIEFED E RATIO AU free communications trough the universe


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