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Forex Forum Archive for 07/09/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Gen dk 23:34 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:31 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Voter Survey A Worry For Government
Latest Newspoll voter opinion survey a major headache for Australia's governing Coalition. The Australian newspaper's Newspoll put 2-party preferred support for Coalition unchanged at 44% compared with Labor's 56%. On primary vote, Labor support at 48%, well in advance of 43% threshold political insiders see as key number needed to be in the game.

nj jf 23:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
mntevideo 23:23 GMT July 9, 2007
im sure whoever is offering it when you look at the price itself
it will be like trading on 10 pip spot prices lol

mntevideo 23:23 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi people!

Does anyone know exactly when censored is gonna begin offering currency options for live accounts?
They are available for demo acccounts onlyt.

If anyone knows something about it I ´ll be glad to hear from it.

Syd 23:14 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
U.K. retail sales picked up in June, but that may mask a downturn in sentiment as consumers take advantage of discounting now in anticipation of interest-rate rises ahead, the British Retail Consortium said Tuesday.

But that growth may be the result of consumers taking advantage of heavy discounts to buy now in anticipation of a further rate rise, hiding a decline in confidence due to recent monetary tightening, the BRC found.

"Higher-than-expected overall growth has been achieved by heavy discounting of non-food goods which has tempted consumers to bring forward major purchases in anticipation of more rate rises," said Kevin Hawkins, director general at the BRC. "Torrential rain hit clothing and footwear, DIY and gardening, but did drive footfall in department stores," the BRC said. "Food sales slowed against last year's World Cup and gains in homewares and furniture were largely discount-driven," it added.

OTTAWA mjw 22:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   

thanks syd...

Syd 22:25 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
NZ Actual 2Q Net Business Confidence -37% -QSBO
NZ's Adj Net Business Confidence -30% In 1Q -QSBO
NZ 2Q Capacity Utilization 91.6% Vs 1Q 91.8% - QSBO
NZ Actual 2Q Net Business Confidence -37% Vs -15% 1Q - QSBO

Syd 22:24 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand business confidence slipped further into negative territory in the second quarter of 2007, although firms remained positive about their own activity outlook, according to a private-sector survey published Tuesday. That mayoffer some comfort to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is battling to contain persistent domestic inflation pressures.
The NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that a net 37%of surveyed businesses expect general conditions to deteriorate over the next six months. In the first quarter, a net 15% of businesses expected conditions to worsen.

OTTAWA mjw 22:21 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
would anyone know if kiwi #'s have been released thanks for any reply..

Syd 22:14 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japan has built up 900 billion dollars, or about 110 trillion yen .Weak Yen Threatens Japan's Global Stature

Cambridge Zoltan 22:09 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 20:32 GMT July 9, 2007 :

Thanks Ldn, very much appreciated!

Syd 21:12 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Around the Markets: Cheap yen is seen as threat to innovation
TOKYO: Nissan Motor, Canon and Ricoh say the yen's slump to a 22-year low is too much of a good thing for Japan's exporters.

Nissan, the nation's third-biggest carmaker, cannot afford to rely on exchange rates to compete, the chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, says. Canon's chairman, Fujio Mitarai, head of the country's largest business lobby, and Ricoh's president, Masamitsu Sakurai, leader of the biggest executive group, said the yen's drop was becoming a concern.

While the yen's 10 percent decline against the dollar and 20 percent plunge versus the euro in the past two years helped the Tokyo-based companies post record earnings, it has also pushed up import costs that may cut into profits and prompted criticism from trading partners.

"Honestly, the yen is too cheap," said Michijiro Kikawa, chief executive of Hitachi Construction Machinery, which competes with the Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar in selling mining equipment. "There will be trade friction should the yen fall further."http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/02/business/sxasia.php

Syd 21:07 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Private sector Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, due 2200 GMT, likely to keep NZD contained on top side, says ANZ Bank. Thinks survey will show sharp decline in headline confidence, causing support levels for NZD to be tested again. Still, details of survey important - expects pricing and resource pressures to be at elevated levels, keeping RBNZ on edge, but doubts survey will deliver "smoking gun" that'll prompt the central bank to hike rates. Pegs support at 0.7780, resistance 0.7825

GVI john 20:50 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Syd 20:41 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
"The number of people missing mortgage payments has more than doubled since the start of the year as the impact of rising interest rates is beginning to bite, according to research released today. The study by moneyexpert.com, a price comparison site, estimates that 77,000 mortgage payments are being missed every month, up from 36,000 at the beginning of the year." LET S REMEMBER: between 1990 and 1993 there have been "only" 430k repossessions...http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2048456.ece

Ldn 20:32 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said late Monday that early elections in the autumn are a likely outcome if dismissed Deputy Prime Minister Andrzej Lepper's Samoobrona party follows its leader out of the government.

"If it turns out we have no chance to form a (parliamentary) majority, the only choice will be early elections," Kaczynski said in an interview with Polish state television.

Asked about the most probable timing for early elections, Kaczynski replied: "Likely in the autumn, but it's still too early to say definitely. It could be later."

The interview contained Kaczynski's first public comments after the a government spokesman announced Lepper had been dismissed amid allegations his associates were involved in corruption at the agriculture ministry

Lahore FM 20:04 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 19:56 GMT July 9, 2007
ACC sir,thanks for the detailed overview on upcoming data and pertaining issues of nzd sentiment.nzd certainly has been one of the most admantine bulls but i really stick to techs merely and would again like to see what fundamentals work in conjunction with the present picture on techs.many thanx again.gtgl.

Sydney ACC 19:56 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 9, 2007
Thanks, CBA report from Monday on Kiwi, they remain quite bullish.
This week is an important week for the New Zealand economy. Already released has been the June New Zealand house price series. According to Quotable Value, the annual rate of growth in New Zealand house prices has risen again, to 12.2% from 11.1% in May. There has been a good long-term positive relationship between the rise in New Zealand’s house prices and both New Zealand’s interest rate and the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ has identified housing as one of the key factors generating upside risks to New Zealand’s interest rate outlook.

Tomorrow there is the release of New Zealand’s quarterly capacity utilisation series, courtesy of the NZIER. Capacity constraints continue to place upside pressure on New Zealand’s medium-term inflation outlook. The RBNZ is seeking some relief from an easing in capacity utilisation. If they don’t get it, then upside pressure will remain on New Zealand’s interest rate market and the NZD. On Friday, New Zealand’s May retail sales data is due. The retail sales number will provide us with the second month of retail data for Q2. Risk is still to the downside given the payback from an extremely strong Q1. However, of note is the NZD’s limited reaction to last month’s weak retail sales number. If we get another limited reaction to a weak retail sales number, it would suggest that sentiment to the NZD still remains extremely strong, and so further immediate upside in the NZD should be expected. In some ways, the reaction of the NZD to the May retail sales data will be a litmus test for sentiment in the NZD. Next week (Monday 16) is New Zealand's Q2 CPI; Expect 0.6% (QoQ), 1.6% YoY).

Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
ACC,two to five trading days.

dc CB 19:46 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Sydney ACC 19:44 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007
Lahore, what time frame do you expect to reach your NZD/USD target.

The Netherlands Purk 19:43 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:39 GMT July 9, 2007
Cannon bls sls bugger sht 168.40

This is strange, didnt anybody figure this post out? He went short e/j at 16840.
And by the looks of it he cashed in at 168. Being monday he got 40 out of 60...
Impressive. So he does speak with his cannonballs...

Cambridge Zoltan 19:08 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone here have a newsfeed from/about Poland? Apparently Lepper, the leader of the Self-defence party was just re-called by the PM and now he says that his party will leave government. I only have access to headlines. Thanks!!!

Lahore FM 18:48 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Gold may rebound should the euro rally, said Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of Suffolk, Virginia-based the Gartman Letter. Five of the past bear markets in the dollar resulted in a higher price for gold.

``Since the spring of this year, when gold failed on another attempt to push through $700, it has been on the defensive and correcting,'' Gartman said in a report. ``If the euro pushed upward through $1.37, gold shall end its correction.''

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at [email protected] .

Lahore FM 18:46 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Manchester SA 18:37 GMT July 9, 2007
SA,i was not looking for the fib retrace in particular in this trade.if it coincides according to your calculation then good.gtgl.

Manchester SA 18:37 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007
short nzdusd 0.7799.tentative stops at 0.7840.target 0.7640

Hi Lahore

Good to see you on here again!

I was only wondering....is your trade based on the 61.8% Fib?


Regards

Stone

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, Gartman on Bloomberg on Gold

Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
short nzdusd 0.7799.tentative stops at 0.7840.target 0.7640.

Gen dk 16:57 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LKWD JJ 16:48 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
monthly close @20080-90 has been good support.

Makassar Alimin 16:47 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
could it be that we won't see gbpusd under 2 anymore before hitting new high? too early of course but it has been very well supported

LKWD JJ 16:35 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
licking the wounds of my short u/j stopped out at highs above 168.

Como Perrie 16:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Rumors of some central banks holding upon heavy losses persist. Also verbal intervention went far the breakeven of futher credibility. Lovely.

bbsapul 16:20 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hi oil man:

may i know where is your stop on euro short?

TIA

USA Zeus 16:14 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO NICK 16:08 GMT July 9, 2007
any advice for GBP/JPY?


Discipline Discipline Discipline

TOKYO NICK 16:08 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
any advice for GBP/JPY?

Sydney MH 15:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Atlanta, will do

Atlanta South 15:12 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Are you seeking EA to trade your account in auto mode?
If so get my email from Jay & I'll direct you to one that I
hear works well. I don't care for EA's, but if one
works for you thats all that matter. GT

Sydney MH 14:58 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone recommend a good EA?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:41 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Trading Reference


... 1.0385 - 1.0413* // 1.0441 - 1.0455 - [1.0469] - 1.0483 - 1.0497 // 1.0511 - 1.0526* ...

Mtl JP 14:32 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Slow day, good read:

Real estate guru 'in a pickle'
Investment adviser has legal, financial troubles
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4949667.html

Como Perrie 14:32 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Oh well. See yourself, subprime not a problem anymore.

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/38424

Monaco Oil man 13:42 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 13:37 GMT July 9, 2007

I commented on gold earlier..

Right now, I m chilling out, watching my CAD fly(seems they are flying faster in my head than in their actual prices) , and savoring the flight.

Gold , looks bullish above 660 on dailies...But who will buy it on July to august?

Oil man

sydney zigen 13:39 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hi everybody.. traded gbp/usd last year had a drawdown of 7k before I got my 10k capital back, phew.. i'm now back in business. Hope to gain some market info and ideas from any of you all.

USA Zeus 13:38 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:39 GMT July 9, 2007
Cannon bls sls bugger sht 168.40



grandes cajones locks 168.00

Napoli DC 13:37 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
me too join the CAD boat going long at 1,047
s/l under today's low

hong kong seek 13:37 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil man --could u pls comment on gold ? gl

delray beach rmn 13:27 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Monaco what are your views on aud/jpy im looking for some consolidation myself much appreciated.

hk ab 13:27 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
no one mention kiwi/jpy carry now.

Monaco Oil man 13:23 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
No i m only trading noise at this time(re $cad)....Periods of "ranges"..

This trade is looking for upside not downside.....As said earlier, i m looking for a consolidation phase...On most ccy's.

GT.

hk ab 13:09 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
alimin//me applied too.

Makassar Alimin 13:03 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:52 GMT July 9, 2007

perhaps...;)

maybe only me and Qindex see different thing at the moment, anyway prepare to be proven wrong with the stop in place

hk ab 12:52 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
alimin, hard to stand in front of a flight.

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
short gold 661.90,no stops for now.

Makassar Alimin 12:38 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
i'll shoot down the aircad around 1.0510 with stop ard 1.0535

warsaw TOMi 12:37 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
canada goes for parity.. kitkat u there?

Como Perrie 12:33 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil futures are down this early supporting those who shorted the canadian as per this early london recap.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:27 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:25 GMT July 9, 2007
CAD flight taking off...Sit as take off's are always a bit bumpy on AIRCAD.


Hi Oil Man////what's the 1st target from here plz. thx GL

Monaco Oil man 12:25 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
CAD flight taking off...Sit as take off's are always a bit bumpy on AIRCAD.

Como Perrie 12:18 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
New Paper: The Instability of the Bretton Woods 2 Regime
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/203473

Makassar Alimin 12:12 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:09 GMT July 9, 2007

toilet paper is too expensive there :)

Hong Kong Ahe 12:09 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 11:13 GMT - What else can they do other than admitting they have weak eyesight. LOL.

Como Perrie 12:06 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
For usd/dem and usd/jpy we distinguish from six primary types of interventions. (CBI or central banks interventions):

1. unilateral interventions conducted by the Bundesbank (ECB after 1999) on the DEM/USD
market denoted BBU,
2. unilateral interventions by the US Federal Reserve on the DEM/USD market denoted FEDU,
3. coordinated interventions defined as interventions conducted on the DEM/USD market the
same day and in the same direction by the two involved central banks denoted COORD,
4. unilateral interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on the YEN/USD market
denoted BoJU,
5. unilateral interventions by the US Federal Reserve on the YEN/USD market denoted FEDUY,
6. coordinated interventions defined as interventions conducted on the YEN/USD market the
same day and in the same direction by the two involved central banks denoted COORDY.

http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=393

The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20).


GVI john 11:49 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Plovidv Gotin 11:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Break of 1.3568-->1.3535/1.3488. GT.

Athens 11:21 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
NS, Lil, Kevin, thank you.

Plovidv Gotin 11:15 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   

E/$: If 1.3642 not hold-->1.3645/66/77/96.
If 1.3611 not hold-->1.3568.

Syd 11:14 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 11:11 sorry dont

Monaco Oil man 11:13 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Kevin,

They have been saying the exact same phrase for the last 4 years now..

HK Kevin 11:11 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai bc, does the below statement qualified as verbal intervention?
Japan MOF Fujii Says Watching Forex Markets Carefully

Sydney ACC 11:11 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:07 GMT July 9, 2007
Got an http address for this story?

The Netherlands Purk 11:01 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Well they can always take profit now.....

Syd 10:58 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Talk of Rising fears of policy makers for the collapse of several huge hedge funds who have big bets against the Yen

Monaco Oil man 10:53 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 10:48 GMT July 9, 2007


Think as usual , (as per last week on majors) , buy the rumour , sell the fact...New low in...Now should see upside.

Gen dk 10:52 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 10:48 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
newark / Practical Lesson Fundamental Trading 101

From http://www.global-view.com/weekly.html,

Tue, Jul 10, 2007
13:00GMT CA - BOC Policy Announcement

Market expects BoC to hike .25bps
Mon July 09 morning rate: 1.0465
-
What, do you think, usdcad priceaction
1) should be
2) will be

Syd 10:34 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Bovis hit by stagnating house market Bovis, the FTSE 250 builder, brought fresh misery to the housing market today as it reported that customer orders for its new-build homes have all but dried up and average sales prices have stagnated. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article2046827.ece

Makassar Alimin 10:20 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:24 GMT July 9, 2007

agree very much Qindex, since not even my proposed entry 1.1510 touched

Syd 10:07 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
The forex market's fixation on yield is now so strong that old valuation models appear flawed, says RBoS. Says a new model incorporating yields, PPP and current accounts suggests most major currencies are now close to fair value. Says JPY has been "rooted" close to fair value for the last 18 months. CAD is not quite at fair value although it has moved towards it, while GBP, EUR and AUD are the most overvalued, the bank says.

San Juan Lil 10:05 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone!

Athens 08:45 GMT July 9, 2007
Athens Adam, great pleasure to see you, very interesting your newsletter and views as always. Tks.

NY tim 10:02 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
NY will buy USD - IMHO

HK Kevin 10:00 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Athens 08:45 GMT, you are always welcom. Even just a few lines.

Syd 09:36 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Japan MOF Fujii Says Watching Forex Markets Carefully

Hong Kong Qindex 09:24 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Sell on rallies is still the preferred trading strategy.

Monaco Oil man 09:20 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
CADJPY is going nice...Bigger push and all pairs vs cad should move upside.

GT.

Mumbai NS 09:17 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Athens 08:45 GMT July 9, 2007

Hi Adam gr8 to see ur post after a long time excellent as usual tks gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:06 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD :

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.0461 - (1.0483) - 1.0554*

Upside Targeting Points : 1.0535 and 1.0584

Downside Targeting Points : 1.0387 and 1.0412

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.0461. Speculative buying increase will increase if the market is able to trade above 1.0554.

The distribution profile of super magnets are as follow : (1.0229) - 1.0314 - (1.0356) - 1.0385* - 1.0387 - 1.0461 - 1.0469* - (1.0483) - 1.0535 - 1.0554* - 1.0609 - 1.0609 - (1.0610) - 1.0638* - 1.0723* - (1.0737)

Kaunas DP 09:00 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
sold GBP/USD 2.0153 for quick 50 pips

Hong Kong Qindex 08:53 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The odds are high that the barrier at 1.0375 // 1.0387 will be challenged. A barrier is located at 1.0413*.

Athens 08:45 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone on the FF. I haven't posted here for a long time. For those still interested in my market views here's a free copy of this week's Trendways weekend analysis. As usual all detailed tech analysis is contained in my T&S page. Anyone interested in more info on Trendways please contact Global View.

I hope all old friends here are fine.

JKT ACDC 08:36 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
OILMAN, got your message loud and clear.

Thanks

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:34 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
UK June PPI. The unadjusted output measure was +0.2% mom and +2.4% yoy from May's +0.4% mom and +2.4% yoy and against forecasts for +0.3% mom and +2.6% yoy.

Monaco Oil man 08:32 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
JKT ACDC 08:25 GMT July 9, 2007

The secret is keeping your boat afloat , so that your cats can pass you trades...Even when there's a storm.

My new cat is called Linux, and is much faster than the older one, who only read weekly charts..

Just have to keep tight leash on risk , keep the boat floating, the rest is fine?

Think tec's , funnymentals, cats, dogs, or anything can make out signals...Most important is staying afloat.



Good Luck.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:31 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to trade below the barrier at 1.0437 - 1.0441.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:28 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.0554. It is under prssue when it is trading below 1.0483.

Como Perrie 08:26 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Do not forget today's Sarkozy speech on economy.

JKT ACDC 08:25 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi OIlman,

Your views are they based purely on technicals??


Monaco Oil man 08:24 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 08:16 GMT July 9, 2007

I m actually looking for 1.06-1.07 Wednesday or so..

Very small stops, barrier at 40 is rumored to be quite heavy.
GT.

The Netherlands Purk 08:16 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
I can not believe that i am in the same CAD boat as Oily Boily. If it turns out into profit i will honour the sand like it was my own....

The Netherlands Purk 08:11 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Time for e/j to decide which way to go.
Target up: 16873.
Target downnnnnn: 16733. Shorts: when target is reached s/l to b/e for 1 take profit on the rest.
Target up: short the censored out of the e/j than!!!!
PLOL

prague mark 08:09 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
wll cable take out 2 on the downside today?

Monaco Oil man 08:07 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:58 GMT July 9, 2007

You bet ...

btw that $cad , is a combo with GVI (this morning, or my signal)


Monaco Oil man 06:47 GMT July 9, 2007
"......Shorted CADJPY 118.11....116.30"

Como Perrie 08:01 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 07:56 GMT July 9, 2007

ok

hk ab 07:58 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
oilman, got similar entry on dlr/cad.
I want to test out your signal ( thinking about 5 real trades) And I see your offer is a very very GOOD bargain!

Monaco Oil man 07:56 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:54 GMT July 9, 2007

Sure thing, ask jay my email.

Monaco Oil man 07:55 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:47 GMT July 9, 2007
from GVI:

Monaco Oil man 07:40 GMT July 9, 2007
Got some longs $/CAD 1.0459...If my CADJPY trades works out, then $/CAD should see 1.06-1.07 this week....25 pips SL.

GT.

Como Perrie 07:54 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
btw Oil Man wd u share some briefings from time to time in private. If agree lets drop an email to Jay. As you know am more interested in impulsive markets, but do working some onto short term envisioning too currently as can't be purely trapped into investment/p-folio stuff as did in the past coupla years. I'll see what I see, opportunity nowhere :)

Como Perrie 07:51 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Think I'll wait US opening and see.

hk ab 07:50 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
the yen seems kept boding the dlr index well.

Como Perrie 07:48 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Oops I haven't been following this cad. But with Oil so high this will be danger commodity beast. Not for my monday's :)9

hk ab 07:47 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
oilman, saw your dlr/cad 1.07 weekly target. Where will you start the long mission?

Como Perrie 07:46 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Morning... no big seeing at current. The only thing of note as GV pointed out last week with that nice chart is Nikkei up and Usd/Jpy up too.

hk ab 07:16 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
oilman, thanks and got ya!

hk ab 06:57 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
zeus what's your short e/j target?

Monaco Oil man 06:55 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
ab:

I don't trade gold much , latest signal was long 645 (though it's "clean" , as not all time frames are in agreement)..

Though looking at charts real fast, it needs to break and stay above 658 for a daily close , to really regain the bullish impetus..

The last time you asked, i said it's going to 630 , low was 637 (because of the break at 660 i think it was)...But I really prefer ccy's than gold...

There is also this trendline from May to now on daily which comes on 658 more or less..So break of that would be bullish...No break could turn into a longer consolidation phase.

GT.

hk ab 06:40 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
oil man, would you mind elaborate a bit further on the gold part please? TIA.

Sydney ACC 06:18 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 05:56 GMT July 9, 2007
My bank tells me they have seen wave after wave of Kiwi selling today against JPY little if any buying.
Maybe Mrs Watanabe is taking some profit on her Kiwi positions.

Gen dk 06:10 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 06:08 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
AUDNZD staying above 1.0940 , has potential for a nice move to the upside this week.

Something to watch.

GT.

Sydney ACC 06:04 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
BHP up AUD 1.30 or 3%, RIO up AUD 1.43 or 1.25% today. Resource stocks very well bid today.

madrid mm 06:01 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Have a gr8 day all of you.

madrid mm 06:00 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Oily,
- in tears for many ,
- laughing all the way to the bank for a few
maybe ?
8+-)

Monaco Oil man 05:56 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Guess can now look for :
170 EY
CADJPY 120 (that one is impressive).
124.50 $Y
1.35 E$.
2.0 GBP$.
1.07 $/CAD.

Looking across the board, and it's definitely YEN , that is the driver behind this moves..
As soon as a ccy starts dropping its YEN pair is seen as a bargain stabilizing prices..
Makes one wonder , about the leverage employed by this carry traders , who it seems have re discovered gold..
And how is it going to end..
gt.


Monaco Oil man 11:03 GMT May 16, 2007
Wouldn't be surprised to see

170 EURJPY
CADJPY 115
122 $/Y
1.37 E$
1.06 $CAD

Next following weeks gl..

madrid mm 05:56 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hello hello hello fx Jedi -

Japan Core Machinery orders for May +5.9%m/m, stronger than expection of +2.3%.

Japan Government has raised its assessment of machinery orders; for the first time in 11 months.

LDP Shigeyuki Goto, in Reuters interview says BoJ should be very cautious in raising rates as prices continue to fall. Goto says that under current situation, an August rate hike "cannot be accepted"

French Pres Nicolas Sarkozy says he wants EU leaders to meet in Autumn to discuss economic policy. Wants former French Finmin Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be IMF head - Le Journal Du Dimanche.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear to French Pres Nicolas Sarkozy that Germany will firmly resist any efforts to impinge on ECB independence - Der Spiegel.

WSJ: France Pres Sarkozy will attend Eurogroup meeting to plead his case for pushing France's balanced-budget deadline to 2012. He is also keen to give politicians more of a role in FX debate, in hopes of reducing the value of the euro, and on ECB debate.

NIESR projects UK GDP growing 0.7% in 3 months to June.

Moody's says the outlook for NZ's banking system is stable, but highlights the increased possibility of an abrupt slowdown in the country's fixed-rate mortgage dominated housing market .

NKS article on Saturday: "Weak Yen Threatens Japan's Global Stature"--The yen's real, trade-weighted value has declined to its lowest level in 22 years.... But the yen's persistent weakness is now starting to unnerve Japanese... It is time for the nation to ask whether a weak yen really in its best interest.

JPY remains under selling pressure as JPY Carry trades resume after Friday's strong US NFP data, triggered risk taking.

EUR/JPY hit fresh highs of 168.30 in early morning trade, before dipping slightly on the stronger than expected Japan machinery orders of +5.9%m/m.

USD/JPY edged down to 123.36 given from 123.45 on the stronger data, before edging up again on back of Cross/JPY demand, with Japanese buying EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY.

EUR/JPY extended its gains to 168.50 LDP Goto says BoJ August rate hike is premature, despite the stronger than expected Japan machinery orders, which gave hopes of an August rate hike to be discussed at BoJ meeting this week.

Still hearing talks of good Japanese and US lifers, funds buying interest, while good offers still placed aty 123.70-80- some focus on the huge French 5-year BTANs eurozone coupons of EUR2.84b and EUR16.08b redemption - totalling EUR18.92bln due this Thursday, July 12- could see EUR/JPY sales.

AUD/JPY broke 106.00 triggers to fresh 16-year highs 106.11, high since 1991 Oct highs, despite earlier bouts of AUD sales from Japanese securities houses.

Good interest seen in Kiwi today, with Kiwi falling to 0.7777 lows from 0.7830 on broad based Big 4 OZ, funds, models selling, as AUD/NZD bought above 1.1000 from 1.0955-60 to 1.1010 on stoploss, some focus on Moody's report on NZ highlighting possibility of abrupt housing slowdown. It squeezed up to 0.7810-15 again before seeing fresh sales from Japanese banks.

Nikkei +114pts or 0.63% at 18,255 on strong machinery orders. JGBs lower on weak UST after Friday's NFP and strong Japan machinery orders today, with 10-year JGB yield +0.025% at 1.955%.

Aug crude oil a touch lower in Asia after big rise in NY on Friday. $72.56, -$0.25.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 123.36/123.66, EUR/USD 1.3618/1.3634, GBP/USD 2.0101/2.0124, USD/CHF 1.2176/1.2191, AUD/USD 0.8569/0.8585, NZD/USD 0.7777/0.7830.

Syd 05:30 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Official Says Food Safety Crisis Could Trigger Unrest


BEIJING (AP)--China's food safety crisis has tarnished its reputation abroad and threatens to spur social unrest at home, where more health scares are expected, a top official was quoted as saying Monday.

"Food security problems have impeded Chinese agri-products and food many times in international trade, and damaged our national credibility and image," Sun Xianze, an official with the State Food and Drug Administration, was quoted as saying by the official China Daily newspaper on Monday.

Sun called on his colleagues over the weekend to urgently step up food supervision, the paper reported.

The Chinese government has been trying to toughen product supervision amid mounting criticism - at home and abroad - that the quality of its drug, food and other products is poorly regulated.

Sun was quoted by Xinhua in an earlier report as saying that "mass food safety incidents will continue to occur frequently, with the rural food safety situation in particular causing us to not be optimistic."

In a seminar on Saturday, Sun said that future food safety accidents would likely be caused by residual pesticides and veterinary drugs in food, the use of industrial ingredients in food manufacturing and dangerous bacteria, Xinhua said.

He said authorities should be prepared for the possibility that harmful substances in food could lead to the increased risk of chronic or hereditary illness, without giving specific examples, Xinhua said.

"Food safety accidents and individual cases will not only affect the healthy development of the industry but could also impact local economies and social stability," said Sun, who is director of the agency's food safety coordination department,

He listed domestic cases from the past year including drug-tainted fish, banned Sudan dye used to color egg yolks red, and pork tainted with clenbuterol, a banned feed additive.


hk ab 05:04 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
nzd drops probably starts after summer holiday commences...i.e. after mid-July

HK [email protected] 04:25 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
The NZ$/US will be in a side move for a while . Short may be interesting only below 0.7760 if seen

Syd 04:16 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
China's foreign exchange regulator said Monday it has abolished a rule introduced in 1999 that required Chinese exporters to repatriate foreign-currency income.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its Web site that the rule was rescinded as of July 1.

The abolition of the rule is the latest step taken by the government to reduce the massive inflow of foreign currency into China. The country's trade surplus continues to grow rapidly, and export income is a major source of foreign-currency income for China.

USA Zeus 02:39 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannon bls sls bugger sht 168.40

Syd 01:58 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Drops Below 0.7800 On Asian Selling -BNZ
NZD/USD drops below 0.7800 as heavy selling by Asian model accounts "triggered stops around (0.7800) the figure," says Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton. Notes market "scrambling for reasons" for fall, with some suggestion it relates to Moody's report on risks to NZ housing market of abrupt slowdown; comments from Trade Minister Phil Goff Friday on carry trades. Still, she thinks NZD was already looking bearish given recent run up, traders looking for excuse to sell, which was provided by "chunky flows" from Asia. Pegs support at July 2 low of 0.7780, with a break through that level likely to trigger further downside move toward 0.7740

bbsapul 01:50 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
hi caba :

whats your target on nzd/usd short?

TIA

Syd 01:40 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY Down As Moody's Warns On NZ Housing Mkt

Syd 01:38 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Australia Newspaper Job Ads Fell 3.1% June Vs

Sydney ACC 01:27 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Anyone got any news on the Kiwi - off 45 points so far today.

Syd 00:39 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Japan PM Abe:Very Possible Won't Need Sales Tax Hike

USA Zeus 00:30 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:13 GMT July 7, 2007

Yes- That super magnet has been pulling strong as of late. Let's see....

GL GT

Syd 00:17 GMT July 9, 2007 Reply   
Moody's Warns On Risk Of Abrupt Slowdown In NZ Housing Mkt

 




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