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Forex Forum Archive for 07/10/2007

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Philadelphia Caba 23:56 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd on dailies targeting 1.4

Syd 23:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Japan May Unadjusted Curr Acct Surplus +31.1% On Yr

Syd 23:46 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
If Asian stocks perform poorly, USD/JPY may fall further due to unwinding of carry trade as investors reduce risk, JPMorgan Chase Bank strategists say

hk ab 23:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
is it too hard to find a reason to dump USD like toilet papers? LOL

Syd 23:36 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
A Bank of Korea official said Wednesday that even if the central bank increases the policy rate, it won't restrain the current economic recovery, Yonhap Infomax news agency reported.

The bank is widely expected to raise its key overnight call rate target by 25 basis points to 4.75% Thursday due to abundant liquidity in the market amid a strong economic recovery.

hk ab 23:28 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
we need to see how many rich censored housewives are left to buy up all these "good bargained" carry-stuff.....esp. today.

USA Zeus 23:13 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:25 GMT July 10, 2007
EUR/USD, GBP/USD- The market rips through stops to teach top pickers a thing or 2.



Yes. The magic of magic- the lucky 7's strange attractor super magnetometer fulcrum ripped EUR/USD stops to the 1.3777('s)....Ahhhh

Gen dk 23:11 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 23:10 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
anyway, chart is very ugly now.

hk ab 23:10 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
this yen-crosses selling only take effect on commod but not on the leader eur......
+ no effect on metals at all.....
actions taken by several big funds for summer money only?

Philadelphia Caba 22:49 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
okay, now, if BOJ will hold, we should see a new high on yen crosses, right? (on friday..?)

Halifax CB 22:32 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Interesting that NZD/JPY bounced off the last intervention close (around 93.40), and USD/JPY off 121, at the same time. Must be a hot phone link between RBNZ and BoJ...

Lahore FM 22:27 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
thanx ACC sir,a lot more might be happening.quite agree!

Sydney ACC 22:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:12 GMT July 10, 2007
Beautiful call on the NZD/JPY, best I've seen iin a long while.
It might be a bit early but this might be a turning point in teh carry trade. We did see some good moves in March which were then reversed with more outflows. This time, however, there is is the spectre of higher Japanese rates to contend with.
The ten year US treasury bond is off 12 cents, the UK Gilt is off 10 cents and the yield on the equivalent term in Japan is down 1.3 cents. This is supports further carry trade liquidation.
If the iunflows dry up AUD, NZD and GBP will all suffer not only against JPY but against USD as well.

Halifax CB 22:19 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 22:17 GMT July 10, 2007
Whoops, make that 93.40....

Halifax CB 22:17 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:10 GMT July 10, 2007
Good to hear, it'll buy the boys some beer :) FWIW, I have the next support around 93.50 on nzd/jpy, wonder if they'll let up there...

Lahore FM 22:14 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
if rbnz has actually been doing that ACC then they have kinda learned art of war.guess keeping in touch with japs via uridashi deals has rubbed off.lolzz...

Lahore FM 22:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ACC sir closed nzdjp for 110 pips.a bit too soon but still short nzdusd.

Sydney ACC 22:10 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ has been in selling NZD this morning.

dc CB 22:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Globex JY Sept futures closed the session an hour ago at 8287 up 107 pts. Just opened new session at 8311.

Lahore FM 22:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:59 GMT July 10, 2007
aud will take double heat i feel.against usd and jpy as well.let us see.there is this glitch of a bit of aud data as well.

Lahore FM 22:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:03 GMT July 10, 2007
welcome Bay!

USA BAY 22:03 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

Great call on nzd/jpy, execellent. Thanks a lot.

Syd 22:03 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 21:5 quite a wild run at 1.38 obviously looking for stops in thin trade :-((

Patra alex 22:00 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
1.3777

LKWD JJ 21:59 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm you feel aud going down vs usd not jpy?

nj jf 21:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
syd
thats kind of what i expected to see a eurusd high .... not we shall see if the yen crosses can sink on both eurusd and usdyen dropping...... aud back thru 95 also wud be of assistance

Syd 21:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC possibly

Toronto MRC 21:55 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd

I think this yen move is partly fear of a 50 point move by BOJ. I think it will be a quarter.

Syd 21:54 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
The junk bond market was noticeably weaker Tuesday as worries about the subprime market prompted risk aversion that rattled the high-yield bond market.

The risk premium on the KDP High-Yield Index rose to 292 basis points over Treasurys, after closing at 269 basis points over Treasurys Monday and trading around 280 basis points Tuesday morning.

"It widened out significantly," Kingman Penniman, president of KDP Investment Advisors, said, adding it was partly a result of the rally in the U.S. Treasurys market and partly the "repricing of risk."
The subprime mortgage market was also shaky after Standard & Poor's said it plans to downgrade up to $12 billion of mortgage bonds backed by subprime loans.

Investors seeking a safe haven fled to Treasurys, while others bought credit protection through closely-watched derivative indexes.
S&P also said it's reviewing the ratings of collateralized debt obligations - complex securities that have been in the spotlight since two Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) hedge funds posted big losses in such investments - that contain any of the affected mortgage bonds facing downgrade.
Late in the day, Moody's Investors Service chimed in with the downgrade of 399 mortgage bonds backed by adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages, a move that will deepen concerns about the fate of the subprime market.

"We're starting to see some collateral damage from subprime hitting the leverage loan and high yield bond market," Penniman said.
Bernanke suggested that Fed rate hikes might be able to bring inflation down at a lower cost to the economy than once thought, since those actions have the added benefit of reducing the public's future inflation expectations.




Syd 21:49 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 21:44 yes i recall , would like to be a fly on the wall ( mature players kill each other let alone themselves in the unwind process.) :-))

Toronto MRC 21:44 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:13 GMT July 10, 2007

I think I commented last week there were signs the carry trade was starting to unravel. I think we hit some "money shot" levels that may have sped the pace. Oil near 73 and a chance to unload gold over 660 plus the threat of BOJ won't help. The potential is there for a mess but these are mature players kill each other let alone themselves in the unwind process.

Monaco Oil man 21:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Well it did..But what sand , heh?

The Netherlands Purk 08:16 GMT July 9, 2007
I can not believe that i am in the same CAD boat as Oily Boily. If it turns out into profit i will honour the sand like it was my own....

Lahore FM 21:40 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:16 GMT July 10, 2007
commodity currencies are yet to take the heat of double retrace;against euro and contis and against jpy.right now chapter one unfolding.lots more to come ahead imho.

GVI john 21:33 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

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Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

LKWD JJ 21:30 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nihonbashi warriors waking up in 1hr. maybe they roll over and go back to sleep.

Syd 21:26 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Al-Qaeda condemns Rushdie honour
Zawahiri said Britain had insulted Islam with the award
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6289110.stm

Syd 21:13 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:06 GMT with the fear of S&P, Moody's masking $200 billion of subprime bond risk , also the possibility of the carry trade typically unwinding at a most unfavourable moment , the whole thing could be a bit nasty to say the least , in my experience is it ever rains but pours

Halifax CB 21:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
BTW, there's a bit of rising support to the NZD/JPY on the dailies, joining the lows of June 7, 12, 26. Could get interesting if this gets broken.....

Halifax CB 21:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:53 GMT July 10, 2007
That well could be :) But I'm guessing that they'll manage to have their cake and eat it too - markets cower until the rate announcement, which will be unchanged but strongly enough worded to keep folks in fear until the August meeting, by which time the (almost) usual repatriations will be underway. Well, that's my theory, but I ain't sticking to it too tight :)

The Netherlands Purk 20:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trust that everyone see this is the yen show rather than eur strength or usd weakness. The unfinished business of e/j is done now and still ticking to the lows this cloggy evening.

I see the canonball HAT Kaag Isle man chopped out a great deal of pips in the bugger.. I personally keep my shorts both ways in e/j. Biggest gain of my 3 years on this forum: not being short on e/u during a shoot out... but keep on doing the plan. So as said yesterday and today, as long as e/j is not ticking to the high it is shorty time.
Downside was 16733 wich will be hit tomorrow or in Asian Session.After that we have to see what happens. I prefer to see all previous day highs to be broken for a what bigger correction. Tomorrow it is time to short some e/u at 1377777777777777...

nj jf 20:54 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
cb - certainly that makes the most sense

Syd 20:53 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:51 BOJ could play the markets game and just stick rates up 50bpt to clear the decks

Halifax CB 20:53 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Also 2 sets of JPY numbers of moderate importance up in a couple of hours....

Makassar Alimin 20:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, the 1.3777 magnetic level is performing some wonders

Halifax CB 20:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 20:41 GMT July 10, 2007
Looks to me that another pre-BoJ yen strengthening is underway. Call me old-fashioned, but I can't see anyone risking serious money on counter-yen trading until the BoJ meeting is done with, particularly when carry trades were getting out of hand, and the weak yen was being considered as an embarrassment in the press.

Syd 20:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 20:41 GMT many thanks for that and yes we probably are not , trouble is when it does turn it will be so fast !! the move overnight caught many analyst off guard

Syd 20:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
UK speculators wont let go until the BOE puts the squeeze on to 6-6.5% and the problem is most people in property market have never seen interest rates above 5% in their lifetime

Buy To Let: Property investors are getting together via new websites
http://money.independent.co.uk/property/homes/article2731288.ece

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31910/bought-a-house-recently-youre-losing-money.html
Bought a house recently? You're losing money

Bovis banks on summer and autumn sales after a slump in homebuyerconfidence
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2051064.ece

nj jf 20:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
syd
weve seen a limited yen cross move in this timezone - and when you look at it its more a general usd move

the boj meeting is probably the best chance for a yen based movement

typically what happens in a really bearish yen cross move - eur aud gbp all these things stop rising and first the yen gains then the asset side then falls - obviously from watching the prices we arent quite at that phase yet.

nj jf 20:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
one of the gvi members saw some good audusd buying at 8595/00 so its probably better to sell a break back below that level than sit short right at this level.. esp if eurusd is going to shoot up in thin trading first.

Lahore FM 20:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:31
quite agree with the premise there.gtgl Syd!

Syd 20:31 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:24 we are seeing big players making some very odd moves out of sync with normality, very dangerous especially for carry trades which this could be the beginning of the end .

BOJ – Can The Carry Come Undone Despite Low Rates?

While the Bank of Japan’s meeting this week is virtually guaranteed to show a steady hand at 0.50%, we’ve seen the Japanese yen gain some ground as risk aversion grows in the market – signaling that a rate hike isn’t necessarily needed to unwind carry trades.

Meanwhile, central bankers remain optimistic that prices are will become more stable, opening the door to rate normalization talks:

Lahore FM 20:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
newark i am all for selling and have some on.

dc CB 20:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
S&P futures basically wiped out all of last weeks "first of the month/quarter new OPM's" fueled gains.

Lahore FM 20:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:21 GMT July 10, 2007
quite agree there and there is a little matter of retracing a thousnad pips plus move against the jpy still pending not to speak of against euro and gbp and even aud.

newark 20:23 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Anyone taking the AUD to get a little bit weaker from the employment data coming out tomm and selling it??

Syd 20:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Yield Appeal May Not Be Enough To Support NZD-ANZ

NZD carry trade unwinding and concerns on the local economy are likely to cap topside for NZD says ANZ Bank. Though NZD still managed to attract buyers overnight despite move to lower support levels - indicating the attractiveness of its yield advantage - in the event of a wider carry trade unwind or liquidity slump on back of U.S. subprime woes, "even the yield advantage may not be enough." Kiwi set to be "hostage to global moves" ahead of NZ May retail sales Friday.

LKWD JJ 20:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
didnt read bernankes' speech. but if it spooked the mkts why arent the yields helping the usd?

dc CB 20:18 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Moody's cuts 399 subprime RMBS issued in 2006; 32 additional securities placed on review for possible cut - DJ

Dow Jones reported just before the close that Moody's Investors Service has downgraded 399 residential mortgage-backed securities and placed an additional 32 RMBS under review for possible downgrade. The transactions were issued in 2006 and are backed primarily by first lien adjustable- and fixed-rate subprime mortgage loans. The ratings were placed under review and downgraded based on higher than anticipated rates of delinquency in the underlying collateral compared to current credit enhancement levels.

USA Zeus 20:13 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 down 23
LOL

LKWD JJ 20:07 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 19:42 GMT July 10, 2007
LKWD JJ 19:31 GMT July 10, 2007
bonds not showing anything.

Syd 19:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD opens just below 0.7800, recovering from heavy selling - largely from Japanese accounts - that nudged unit to overnight low of 0.7740. Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton thinks selling was triggered by Japanese newpaper article talking about "excessive speculation" in NZD/JPY and warning unwinding of these positions could lead to broad-based gains in JPY. Steady selling of NZD/AUD also contributing to heavy tone. Though broad USD weakness helped NZD climb off its lows, Hampton says escalating concerns about U.S. subprime mortgages, losses in global equities markets, likely to temper appetite for carry trades - with further weakness in NZD/JPY likely to keep NZD/USD trading with heavier bias

USA Zeus 19:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 futures off 21
LOL

Bodrum OEE 19:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:31 GMT July 10, 2007

No odds there. Except the fact that what do I know?

dc CB 19:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Globe and Mail reports private equity funds are poised to move into the bountiful world of base metals, says a report from Ernst & Young. The so-called "barbarians at the gate" may have steered clear of mining in the past by factors such as the cyclical nature of the industry, political risks and the specialist knowledge required, but current cash flows in base-metals cos are so rich they have begun to attract interest among equity funds. "Major mining companies are running out of capital projects and are aggressively returning cash to shareholders," the report states. "Several of these organizations have unused credit capacity, are consciously unhedged and are aggressively consolidating ... If metals prices remain high, we expect that these characteristics will only become more pronounced." Ian Slater, Ernst & Young's Canadian mining leader, said he doesn't know of any private equity mining deals that have taken place in Canada yet, but said they have already begun sniffing around. There are, however, many candidates. Globally, there is BHP Billiton (BHP), Anglo American (AAUK) and Rio Tinto (RTP), Mr. Slater said, all of which have colossal cash flows. The ideal mining company would have assets in areas with low political risk, he said. "You could see a competing offer for Alcan (AL) or Alcoa (AA). Inmet Mining Corp. is a perfect opportunity. You also have smaller single-mine companies in Canada such as Taseko Mines Ltd. (TGB) or Northgate Minerals Corp. (NXG) in B.C.," Mr. Slater said. "Teck Cominco Ltd. (TCK) would also be perfect," though having two classes of shares means Chairman Norman Keevil's agreement to sell would be needed, he said.

LKWD JJ 19:31 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
any odds on a 50 move from boj? mkt might be nervous after todays move

USA Zeus 19:25 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD, GBP/USD- The market rips through stops to teach top pickers a thing or 2.

USA Zeus 19:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Cannon Bls HAT Bugger scale +95

Bodrum OEE 19:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Don Henley - In a New York Minute (parts in lyrics)

Harry got up
Dressed all in black
Went down to the station
And he never came back
They found his clothing
Scattered somewhere down the track
And he wont be down on wall street
In the morning
He had a home
The love of a girl
But men get lost sometimes
As years unfurl
One day he crossed some line
And he was too much in this world
But I guess it doesnt matter anymore
In a new york minute
Everything can change
In a new york minute
Things can get pretty strange
In a new york minute
Everything can change
In a new york minute
Lying here in the darkness
I hear the sirens wail
Somebody going to emergency
Somebodys going to jail
If you find somebody to love in this world
You better hang on tooth and nail
The wolf is always at the door
In a new york minute
Everything can change
In a new york minute

USA Zeus 19:02 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 futures down 16
LOL

Syd 18:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
UPDATE:Bernanke:Inflation Expectations 'Imperfectly Anchored'
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Dow Jones)--The public's expectations of future inflation are better anchored than they were in the 1970s and 1980s, but they are not "perfectly" anchored and still change based on incoming economic news, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

He also suggested that Fed rate hikes might be able to bring inflation down at a lower cost to the economy than once thought, since those actions have the added benefit of reducing the public's future inflation expectations.

"Although inflation expectations seem much better anchored today than they were a few decades ago, they appear to remain imperfectly anchored," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to a National Bureau of Economics Research conference.

Bon Air VA Dennis 18:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 18:52 GMT

you are welcome, there is alot of misconception over the role of the Fed and Tsy and while it may be technical distinction, in theend unless the Tsy says go, the Fed can not move on its own.

Hong Kong WT 18:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis Thank you

Halifax CB 18:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 17:34 GMT July 10, 2007
I managed to wade through it, it's rather surprising how amazingly irrelevant it is. His primary concern seems to be how to model inflation from an academic POV, and his attitude towards the beast itself seems more or less that he just wishes it would go away, because it disturbs his models and makes the models less accurate. Nassim Taleb must be enjoying a god laugh...

Ldn 18:28 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070710161307.7o8pz62c&show_article=1
Al-Qaeda threatens 'response' to Rushdie knighthood

Makassar Alimin 17:40 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
somehow i miss Greenspan badly

melbourne DC 17:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
We are definitely in a diff CB era in US.
Previously one may be mistaken into thinking one understands what the chief is saying. With this one, such mistake is most unlikely, since its unreasonable to make such assumption if u can't sustain your attention beyond the 3rd paragraph :( i better just read some poor bugger's summary tomorrow.

Mtl JP 17:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Ben: "Although inflation expectations seem much better anchored today than they were a few decades ago, they appear to remain imperfectly anchored."

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2007/20070710/default.htm

Q&A to follow..

Lahore FM 17:00 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
fwiw,nzdusd still looking lower not higher.

madrid mm 16:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
FED President Bernanke is expected to discuss inflation in the US at 17:00GMT

madrid mm 16:47 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
When there is a winner, there is a loser 8+-)

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Paulson & Co.'s largest credit hedge fund returned 40 percent last month by wagering on the decline of the subprime-mortgage market.

The Credit Opportunities Fund has soared 129 percent this year through June 30, according to a July 5 letter to the New York-based firm's investors. Hedge funds globally gained 1.1 percent on average in June and 8 percent in 2007, Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago said yesterday. Click here

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:47 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 16:41 GMT

Bernanke does not directly speak to USD issues, that is the function of Paulson and the Treasury not the Federal Reserve.

Hong Kong WT 16:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Will Bernanke say something to support USD when USD index on 81.21?

inflation???? consumer credit, energy price......
reflex on how many pips on the market?
or no expectation at all.

usd/can from the day chart out of the triangle. Today close above 1.0525, will have fun. Before rebound to 1.08, Will you believe the price must reach 1.0380 or 1.0443 will do?

I believe will reach 1.06 after today's rate high.

dc CB 16:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
as long as the oil market remains firm...and we are heading into hurricaine season...and metals remain bid, the CAD will bounce back from any set back, just as the AUD has done. The Canadian economy is cash flow postive.

Lahore FM 16:28 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
i see why the negative incentive makes good posters evaporate!

USA Zeus 16:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 15:51 GMT July 10, 2007
Thx- It's all good.
Cheers!

LKWD JJ 16:11 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
roughly 120 pips is all that happened vs gbp, eur and usd. with most vs usd. cot reports warned this was coming but a bit delayed . probably due to holiday. would love to see tommorow 115 in jpy....you never know with fx do you?

Lahore FM 16:02 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
it clearly needs to be seen over next 24 hours if what jpy started today is more than skin deep.

LKWD JJ 16:00 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
fm mkt is learning that it was a one off as opposed to a step in a pattern. next step is over the cliffs edge.

Lahore FM 15:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
whenever a currency gets a sentiment shift after a rate hike from its CB just like Cad today did it is time to re-evaluate the whole business of direction on that currency imho.

ldn pw 15:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:42 GMT July 10, 2007
lol - I find your trading comments very valuable by the way....

USA Zeus 15:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:42 GMT July 10, 2007

JJ- Guess so. Makes me wonder sometimes what people want for nothing- their money back? LOL

LKWD JJ 15:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
zues i guess its all about dollars and sense !!

USA Zeus 15:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 15:39 GMT July 10, 2007

I guess he is. As you had your opinion I expressed mine.
As for the fan club- where do I sign up- Zeusempirefxcrusher.com?? LOL

ldn pw 15:39 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:15 GMT July 10, 2007
I guess he's able to reply for himself but as you feel you need to reply on his behalf I was just pointing out that giving the result of a trade without posting the actual trade was pretty useless information to those of us not in gvi. I am sure he is a wealth of information although he only ever posts his trades and not the reasoning behind them. Carry on with your Fan Club.....lol

newark 15:38 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
The CAD might have gotten some strength in CAD/JPY but as of right now i dont see it in the CAD/USD

Monaco Oil man 15:32 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
CADJPY went from 118.30 to 116.20 , in 1 day...it's obviously giving some strength in $/CAD..


GT.

USA Zeus 15:28 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:24 GMT July 10, 2007

Should also add that it is for those who like to trade the political currency.

Makassar Alimin 15:28 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
patience, usdcad's consistent push under 1.0510 will hopefully bring to fruition under 1.04

hk ab 15:25 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
the goose is purely cross driven.

newark 15:25 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Yea why isnt CAD falling into the 1.04 territory

USA Zeus 15:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
For commodity sensitive fx traders- WTI oil should have a lot of stops above 73 IMO.

hk ab 15:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
strong oil + hike and cad still spending its life above 1.05....

Monaco Oil man 15:16 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:07 GMT July 10, 2007

I am flat across.

Not going to try to pick a bottom , or whatever, lets not forget all i was looking for was a consolidation phase in the trend (the dollar DOWN trend)..

So waiting tom , and see what happens by then.

GT.

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:15 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:58 GMT

why leave them alone? they deserve derision for foisting nonsense like that. wire service "reporters" on balance, although there are a few exceptions, are no better than race track touts except these guys are touting trading desk "sources" who generally are talking their own books in any case.

USA Zeus 15:15 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 15:06 GMT July 10, 2007

Instead of grumbling and quipping, try moving along and reading whatever you deem so valuable on this global cocktail.
As for FM he offers some of the best info here for those in the audience looking for some free bird feed.

hk ab 15:14 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
place limit buy 7780

Lahore FM 15:08 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
PW,i apologise. i guess i need to be careful!

hk ab 15:07 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I thought the kiwi is now in the yen's wild card list. 7830 is v. likely but 7860....

SAR your dlr/cad long yet?

ldn pw 15:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:49 GMT July 10, 2007
ldn pw 14:45 GMT July 10, 2007
still trying to figure what the grumbling is about.

the grumble is I don't see the point in you posting useless information if the trade you took was posted on gvi..............I might aswell say I gained 120 pips on cable long today but what use is that information to anybody if I haven't posted when or why I entered. I know we all like our little egos to be massaged but posting results of trades without anything to back it up is just taking up space on the forum (just like this grumble.....lol)

Gen dk 15:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Richland QC Mailman 15:04 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bought a couple of dlr/yen 122.08/11, stop 121.80.

Monaco Oil man 15:03 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:32 GMT July 10, 2007

Yes it was, though I got glitched out of the trade with an automated trail while away..Happens.

Guess can see NZD to 7860 tonight.

GT.

Lahore FM 15:01 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:57 GMT July 10, 2007
yes Alimin it has been behaving like that since it closed above 2.0000 on the month.

Como Perrie 14:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:52 GMT July 10, 2007

Let them alone. Looking for reason in such markets is stupid. It was simply a long list of stop orders being cleared in an impressive way. Hence the market was too sidelined and the top banks are lurking into positions and stops, while letting the public know just the stupid CFTC report which counts in forex for some 2-4 pct of the market share.

Makassar Alimin 14:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
FM, do you think this gbpusd above 2.00 is behaving like aud when it passed 0.80 mark and never to look back again for some time?

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Are these guys serious?

* 10 Jul 07: 14:31(LDN) - FX NOW! NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY Flows - Planes and boats and strains ....... and subs

"... and the Florida plane crash ...."

A Cessna 310 hits two houses and injures three people in Orlando FL and that contributes to USD`selling? This cufrrent market environment is completely irrational.

USA Zeus 14:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Must be my lucky day- Crushing it on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY (from 168.40 as posted), GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold, oil, SP 500.

Ole' Ole'

Lahore FM 14:49 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 14:45 GMT July 10, 2007
still trying to figure what the grumbling is about.

hk ab 14:48 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Did Henry say anything "special"?

Como Perrie 14:46 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Need a pause..done into later. Will see some if any reason for in the speeches later on. During the day went into a real no brain train as when It moves as such. But It's summertime. BIBI

ldn pw 14:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:42 GMT July 10, 2007
............and it was not for general consumption.

must try not to read this 'general' forex forum then (maybe an e-mail would work better for 'private consumption')......lol

Gen dk 14:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 14:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 14:34 GMT July 10, 2007
not every trade posted is meant for this side.copying and pasting all does not make much sense either.btw,i was referring to what mmm had already read and it was not for general consumption.

hk ab 14:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Henry may be playing magic on usd again...

nj jf 14:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
correct anyway

nj jf 14:36 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
i absolutely know what your saying and agree with the sentiment but they dont want to hurt japanese housewives/companies or traders so they will say something directly first- give them a little time// besides the market is trying to

ldn pw 14:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:43 GMT July 10, 2007
mmm,just had eurcad run into money by 130 pips as posted on gvi.

.......perhaps that is where you should post your result as it means nothing to us on this side when we were not privy to your original entry.

Makassar Alimin 14:33 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 14:26 GMT July 10, 2007

true, jf...but seriously though if they want to do it, this is the best time to do it, since their moves have been accustomed to and they need to do it differently this time

nj jf 14:31 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
you will see yen should reflect fundamentals and words like dont like to see excessive volatility but not yen is undervalued or yen is not reflecting current fundamentals some action maybe needed.

Mtl JP 14:31 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 13:05 / BoC site is up now, fwiw

nj jf 14:26 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:21 GMT July 10, 2007
as much as Id wish to see the BOJ fire a 25 bio broadside on the tokyo open tomorrow, I doubt its even being considered w/o some direct warning statements first.

hk ab 14:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Alimin//think they won't since avalanche is seen in commod/yen crosses alreawdy

Como Perrie 14:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hit the monkey :)) What a day huh

Makassar Alimin 14:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
wonder if BOJ sans who are closely monitoring the market will consider intervention tomorrow early asian time, then the snowball effect could be underway!

hk ab 14:18 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, yup.
Let's see if carry-stuff fully gives up starting from today till end of AUg.

Monaco Oil man 14:17 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:06 GMT July 10, 2007

No , i didn't SAR , but got stopped at 1.3669 as posted.
CADJPY touched the 116.30...Quite a mess , as i was short 118.11 , but glitched with the trail stuff which ended up stopping me at 118.12..Meanwhile 116.30 target is touched.

Anyways, sometimes have to listen to what the market tells you (via stops) : You are wrong.

Can't be Christmas everyday ..

GL.

Makassar Alimin 14:09 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, maybe what we need now is another push usdjpy to expose 121 handle, then 1.3777 will show up as well

hk ab 14:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, did you SAR the eur short?

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 13:58 GMT July 10, 2007

Alimin-
The super magnet has been pulling hard for a while- let's see...
GT!! :-)

Gen dk 14:03 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 14:00 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg.com reports that Standard & Poor's said it may cut credit ratings on $12 bln in bonds backed by subprime mortgages because losses will rise beyond its previous expectations. Ratings of 612 classes of residential mortgage-backed securities were placed on CreditWatch with negative implications, New York-based S&P said today in an e-mailed statement. The bonds represent 2.1% of the $565.3 billion of similar bonds rated by S&P during 2006. "We expect that the U.S. housing market, especially the subprime sector, will continue to decline before it improves, and home prices will continue to come under stress... Weakness in the property markets continues to exacerbate losses, with little prospect for improvement in the near term.'' Prices of some bonds backed by subprime mortgages have declined by more than 50 cents on the dollar in the past few months while their credit ratings haven't changed. briefing.com

PAR 13:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Profit taken on short USDJPY from 123.45 at 122.40 and will watch market closely . Lol.

tokyo ginko 13:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
enter long usd index here for medium position GT all.

Makassar Alimin 13:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:55 GMT July 10, 2007

get the 1.3777 rocket ready Zeus, dont disappoint the believers

USA Zeus 13:55 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 13:51 GMT July 10, 2007

Exacto!
Now if we can just squeeze to that magical EUR/USD 1.3777

dc CB 13:55 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
S&P looks to cut ratings on $12B subprime mortgage bonds. (Bloomberg)

HK [email protected] 13:54 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 13:49 GMT July 10, 2007
Buy JPY against all, and buy dollars exept the jpy

Wait until 121.50 B4 further decision.

Makassar Alimin 13:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
whoops, gbpusd is on track to reach 2.04, barring sudden turn from here, i think under 2.00 wont be seen for some time

nj jf 13:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:30 GMT July 10, 2007

the mkt isnt trading it this way because everyone has the correct position

hk ab 13:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
kiwi may make a nice dead cat bounce before avalanche.... by yen...

Geneva 13:49 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Buy JPY against all, and buy dollars exept the jpy

HK [email protected] 13:46 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Yen signals attempt to reach 121.50 maybe that will begin to crack the NZD.

Cali mmm 13:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. Will follow. Rgrds.

Lahore FM 13:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
mmm,just had eurcad run into money by 130 pips as posted on gvi.usdcad has turned for the medium term others might follow.above 1.0540 we get to 1.0620.

USA Zeus 13:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 futures down 12
Here Here!

USA Zeus 13:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
time = time

USA Zeus 13:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:37 GMT July 10, 2007

Remember first "risk" will be the fashion statement- THEN USD- but not all in a weeks tim of course.
Here Here!

Mtl JP 13:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 13:30 / maybe members of "The USD camp will grow and grow..." free newsletter

hk ab 13:32 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman cad/jpy target has reached. let's see what's next

USA Zeus 13:30 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Seems like everyone here wanted USD strength early this week. Be sure to read more than one newsletter LOL

HK Kevin 13:30 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
In my eyes, it looks like a YEN story rather than USD weakness over the broad.

london tv 13:29 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
interesting how kiwi not following moves of euro / gbp

Cali mmm 13:29 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Any target or new bias for USDCAD Oilman and/or Lahore FM now that kind of dovish statement is out? Thank you.

Gen dk 13:27 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 13:27 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
it;s a very interesting day of yen crosses.

Maribor 13:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
After being buy on dips for 1/2 year xxxJPY crosses changed their mind and are now sell on rally's. Lets hope it will not get brutal.

Gen dk 13:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 13:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
new era for USD... could be crunching the 80 marks now.

EU theEUROqueen 13:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob..

so Bob the show must go on..and the usd will keep falling..stay long Bob..

happy trade

hk ab 13:19 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
eur new highs..... dlr/cad , aud and nzd all stalling.... good though

Makassar Alimin 13:19 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ding ding ding...usd index

hk ab 13:14 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
eur is hesitating @ historical high?

HK Kevin 13:14 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
BOC raise 25 bps

hk ab 13:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
it looks s obvious thtat the spike is to clean up all weak SHORTs......

USA Zeus 13:08 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 futures down 7 in pre-market.
Zipidee do dah

madrid mm 13:08 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Funds Shorting S&P 500 at `Crowded Levels,' Merrill Says

By Alexis Xydias

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are short-selling Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures by the most in three years, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst said, and recommended investors buy the securities before the funds have to settle their obligations.


hmmmmmmmmmm.......

dc CB 13:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
cannot connect with the BOC, can someone please post the Statement. thanks.

Makassar Alimin 13:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on remainder usdcad possie, will try again close to 1.0550 with stop 1.0568 for today

Mtl JP 13:05 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 4 1/2 per cent
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2007/rate_100707.html

hk ab 13:04 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
not too many stops on both sides though

Lahore FM 13:04 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
from gvi
Lahore FM 12:57 GMT July 10, 2007
today looks like a fitting first chapter of the commodity currency story.let us see.

hk ab 13:03 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
real show on cad will begin soon.

Hong Kong WT 13:01 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAN today seems no bottom picking and no top picking as well.

hk ab 12:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
now it's cad time

dc CB 12:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
is anyone else having trouble getting on the Bank of Canada site???

USA Zeus 12:56 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Cannon bls and HAT 167.77 ('s) bugger Kaag isle locks.

USA Zeus 12:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:42 GMT July 10, 2007

Thx Perrie! :-)

USA Zeus 12:47 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:54 GMT July 10, 2007

Not quite yet. Could be a little later in the year yet. Remember it is a Very LT cycle shift.

As for now (today) enjoying the current flows in yen and EUR and to a lesser extent GBP.

GT!

Gen dk 12:47 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 12:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Napoli DC 12:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:13
thanks for your precious orangeclogs opinions
really appreciate them

HK [email protected] 12:37 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
I am not a big believer in Tech. in this distorted mkt. but, this is worth a second look.
---------------------------------------------------------
HK [email protected] 04:25 GMT July 9, 2007
The NZ$/US will be in a side move for a while . Short may be interesting only below 0.7760 if seen
----------------------------------------------------------

That one may have much money in it.

Gen dk 12:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 12:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
US dollar gone wow who would said It.

hk ab 12:16 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
seems dlr/chf is running towards the big fig which could lead eur to hit my stop.

Gen dk 12:14 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 11:54 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, is it time to figure out l/t plan yet on usd?

hk ab 11:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
very interesting to see dlr index still survives the crucial 80 even eur and gbp are all at their highs....

hk ab 11:44 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, any bias on dlr/jpy?

Macao Sofia 11:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
Yen Futures Positioning Indicates Reversal Potential
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

Friday, 06 July 2007
NZD/USD - At the End of an Impressive Run?
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

--------------------------------------------------------

Good contrary opinion?

GVI john 11:21 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

The Netherlands Purk 11:13 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Well after the unfinished business of yesterday e/u and e/j moved on to their usual spots, taking out those who have a tight s/l etc.
It is the yen story NN told me so i will stick with the e/j for as long as it takes. It does the ticking to the high thing, but this has to be confirmed because range is tight. So 16850 to beat and 16780 for the downside. If 16780 broken we get 16733.
If 16850 is broken we get 16877, and if that is broken we get 16912. All a bunch of iffies, so lets see. Pips can be made on rallies during the day, NOT in the evening.

hk ab 11:07 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
eur look forzen but cad shows good movement

hk ab 10:44 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
and place my stops of eur short @ 1.3688

hk ab 10:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I am flat on cad now.

Makassar Alimin 10:43 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
limit short usdcad 1.0510 activated while away, take profit 25% here 1.0482 previous support approaching and run the rest with stop at BE

Makassar Alimin 10:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 05:26 GMT July 10, 2007

yes, price clearly indicates this, it is struggling to go up and down easily, so even if you want to long dollar, better wait for better confidence...

Global-View Research 10:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Previews the BOC rate decision and Bernanke's speech:

Mellon FX Daily

Mumbai NS 10:29 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Oilman hi where is ur stop mate on eurusd gl gt

Monaco Oil man 10:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:16 GMT July 10, 2007

I am currently SHORT E$(36).
If i get stopped , i am not going to reverse right there, just to be in the market...

GT.

hk ab 10:16 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
you meant, won't buy it above 60 right?

hk ab 10:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
the e/j barriers look huge.

Monaco Oil man 10:10 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:02 GMT July 10, 2007

Well won't sell it above 60 myself...

Though I note the previous high 1.3688..So must be lots of barriers at 1.37 since..Could be resistant..
Anyways E$ is a buy atm , in all time frames, so hard to keep enumerating its merits as a short..(I m short stops in place).
GT.

hk ab 10:09 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
eur seems lack of conviction.
try small short here 1.3653.

PAR 10:06 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY aiming for new record highs on Ecofins lack of concern and on japanese carefull watching .

hk ab 10:02 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
so oilman, in other words, it's safe to chase eur and e/j if 60 breaks...

Monaco Oil man 09:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
JKT ACDC 09:52 GMT July 10, 2007
Flat.

JKT ACDC 09:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oilman Pls also share your views on GBPUSD

Thanks

Monaco Oil man 09:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
london tv 09:48 GMT July 10, 2007

Was short 7830 yesty , but currently flat..

i'm waiting to see what E$ does, before doing anything really..If it moves above 60, then the rest will follow..

and NZD will do a new high.

GT.

hk ab 09:51 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
how about the cad/jpy?

Monaco Oil man 09:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
If high's are taken , then it's time to look to sell the $ again..

It had its chance, it's not doing anything..Currently still giving the horse a chance but if stops taken, then better fold , and go with the trend...Which is still down for the US$.

GT.

london tv 09:48 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oil man, appreciate your comments on this site. any views on kiwi/usd at these levels?

Monaco Oil man 09:46 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:24 GMT July 10, 2007

I got out at 1.0519..
Then went long today in the 80's.

Going slowly , as dollar might suddenly decide that consolidation phase is over..and back down..

GT.

hk ab 09:38 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
gbp looking for a nice spike UP.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
BoE's Gieve says recent increase in RPI inflation has not come through to wage deals. Also says some signs of recent rate hikes coming through in consumption, housing, not clear cut yet. (Reuters)

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
BoE's Gieve - issue for me is have we done enough to bring inflation back to target - newspaper. (Reuters)

BoE's Gieve says slower reported retail sales may be early sign consumers being more cautious. (Reuters)

london tv 08:19 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
im short kiwi at 7807, should have taken some profits like lahore FM around 7759 but didnt. any views on this pair that is currently trading around 7775. what resistance levels are people seeing?

Como Perrie 07:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
The following development worth following next weeks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/10/cnfran...

French President Nicolas Sarkozy threw down the gauntlet in Brussels last night, vowing to press ahead with his plans for a "fiscal shock" regardless of European Union rules on budget policy.

hk ab 07:53 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
seems nzd carry trade interests dissipate much faster than others.

Gen dk 07:45 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:42 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 07:26 GMT July 10, 2007
:))))

You are swapping from epic posts into very cryptic ones. If can suggest, behind the cross-understanding particular language adapted, to surpass the etymological problem by adapting standard terms for what we describing: as for chaos those standad terms, which are mainly chaos enviroment, flat-balanced, and trend - for technical classic we do know as from candlesticks, to bollinger, envelops, oscillators of sort, averages etc. for fundamental we do have consensuses expectations and deviations, plus previous data revisions. For speeches the key phrasing adopted etc.

Just a smaller idea meant to improve cross forum understanding, as spotted too many trying to name indicators and terms in a subjective manner as to have discovered anything new. The world is still old and same imo and just the first cave men most probably really discovered some, others just building upon earlier discoveries. :)

have a good day ahead

JKT ACDC 07:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD keeping today's interest data in mind shouldn't the CAD appreciate in value after the data?

hk ab 07:36 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
someone wanted to short the dlr/cad goose, did he enter?

Monaco Oil man 07:35 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
All positions closed overnight...+142.

Still long $/CAD though.

Back to work this morning, looking for some bargains..Still think $ has a good chance of moving upside , but after 4 days+, of nothing happening...Guess start again , and see if patience pays out.
Good luck.

Como Perrie 07:33 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
In between fixing the flat or balanced trading enviroment.

Como Perrie 07:32 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
I'll watch short term in one hour just cable and leave the rest to the US hours. ref usdyen am just covered with puts, no trades there at current.

USA Zeus 07:26 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
yen

hk ab 07:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, will you decide to exit dlr/cad long if it doesn't reach 1.06/1.07 target by Wednesday?

Como Perrie 07:15 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Of note the polish zloty under some of attack for those searching of volatility.

Como Perrie 07:09 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Regarding the micro term chaotical structure of the eurusd there was a signal buy at 1.3610 targeting 1.3625/35 with stops 1.3600

Como Perrie 06:58 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Morn.. the market is getting into some nervousness ahead of the key interest decisions as of BOC and BOJ upcoming the week. Some speeches again sheduled on the trivial pursuit game sat by central bankers for which the market is loosing most of It's interest. Eurusd dip today lead by cross related redux of carry trades globally and of decent sizes, yet the mood is to further check out the london hours for the classic minor central banks noted as sovereign support in reserves adjustments for what their reserves are mostly steady and rarely moved in big strategic amounts. Further the morning ahead of note we do have UK trade figures, which are forecasted to have worsen some from previous.

In general reading of the market the enviroment is still flat or balanced, except for yen crosses except the more solid usdjpy and for the canadian which is moving at key long term zones, hence a very short term minded pair with some exception at key levels for long termers.

Kiwi was maybe under some sort of non-told intervention as central banks are trying to find new modes to escape from the big hidden minuses in their assets. If one looks at the ECB losses there presumably count around 25 to 30 pct from the beginning and there are some difficult talks between France and Germany in regard of that that are for now held mostly hidden from the comics of the media we do assist currently.

This late US Bernanke is speeking upon inflation.

Have a good day and good luck. For what luck is the wrong approach in such markets.

Syd 06:41 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
David Schwartz stock market historian on CNBCeuorpe.com quite interesting

madrid mm 06:13 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus soared to a record $26.9 billion in June, outpacing economists' estimates and supplying extra ammunition for U.S. lawmakers threatening sanctions unless the yuan appreciates faster.


Now that 's a lot of "dosh" , isn t it ? What a dilema!!! They must be scratching their head and asking themselves " what do we do ? what do we do ?" 8+-)

madrid mm 06:11 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hello everybody

Talks of Nikkei Financial Daily report on possible change in sentiment of Japanese investors. Japanese investors, seeing overheated JPY sales, fear that the yen may reverse its course suddenly someday in the future. With some saying that the NZD (NZD/JPY unwinding) may signal a change in the yen's future course, or see a sharp JPY recovery.

PBoC sets USD/CNY mid point at 7.5845, 1.7 big figures lower from yesterday's 7.6015 close

Econs Minister Hiroko Ota says machinery orders data confirmed the firmness in Capex.

MoF Koji Omi says up to BoJ to decide on specific interest rates.

NKS: An online survey ahead of the July 29 upper house election shows voters unhappy with the ruling coalition led by the LDP on a host of issues. 63% said the ruling parties should lose their majority, up 3 points.

French Pres Sarkozy says general consensus of satisfaction on French proposals. Can Balance budget by 2010.

NZ Q2 NZIER business confidence falls to -37% from -15 in Q1. NZIER says results justify a period of RBNZ on hold.

BRC like for like UK retail sales +3.0%y/y in June, +5.1%y/y, recovering from May and helped by price discounting, and before July BoE rate hike.

Australia May housing finance +0.1%m/m, vs exp of +0.5%.

Kiwi the focus today, with interesting talks of RBNZ/ BoJ selling NZD/JPY making the rounds in the markets and talks of Nikkei Financial report that JPY recovery could come from NZD/JPY unwinding.

Fall in NZIER Biz confidence also weighed on Kiwi.Kiwi selling started from day highs of 0.7813, hitting stoploss on break of 0.7800 with talks of large lot NZD/JPY selling from large Japanese trust banks, Asian accounts and China names as well.

Kiwi then extends its falls to 1-week lows of 0.7740, after more stoploss hit below 0.7780/ 50, on broad based NZD/JPY selling from Japanese trust banks, funds, and as big 4 Aust banks sold large Kiwi, and model funds and US houses buying good amount of AUD/NZD. AUD/NZD hit 2-week highs of 1.1070 level, with many houses calling for a buy.

Market cautious of any RBNZ intervention again, 1 month after it started the historic intervention at 0.7630-40 on June 11.

Hearing some EUR/JPY selling on expectation of JPY repatriation on the French 5-yr BTANs EUR18.92bln coupons, redemptions due on July 12 - though the previous EUR34.64bln Geman bunds coupons and redemption had limited impact.

EUR/JPY bids 167.50, stoploss on break, resistance, all time highs of 168.54 seen yesterday.

USD/JPY edging up on Japanese demand, with some talks Japanes custodian bank was buyer today. Focus on any EUR, EUR/JPY comments out of Ecofin/Pres Sarkozy today. CAD firm ahead of BoC.

Nikkei a tad lower, -35.19pts or 0.19% at 18,226. JGBs a tad lower, 10-yr yield +0.010% at 1.955% aft 5-yr auction.

August crude oil dipped a touch in Asia, $72.03, -$0.16.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 123.18/123.44, EUR/USD 1.3593/1.3632, GBP/USD 2.0121/2.0161, USD/CHF 1.2161/1.2194, AUD/USD 0.8565/0.8609, NZD/USD 0.7740/0.7813.

Halifax CB 06:02 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Ok :) But I think they should have at least done it with antibiotics he happily passed on to les fortunate people....

Syd 05:59 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 05: thats ok he deserved to die , an eye for an eye :-))))

Halifax CB 05:56 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:48 GMT July 10, 2007
The guy was executed for taking bribes to allow the sale of unsafe medicines. At least 10 people were known to have died from one unsafe antibiotic alone. It's hardly anything to get one's knickers in a twist over, unless you think murder-for-gain by officials should somehow be treated differently than murder-for-gain by everyday people.

The Netherlands Purk 05:55 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Kato ?

Wasnt that the guy that was in all the inpector Cluseau movies with Peter Sellers?

Syd 05:50 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
The euro fell against the yen in Asia Tuesday amid speculation that hawkish signs out of a Bank of Japan policy board meeting later this week could cause the European currency to shed some of its big gains over recent sessions.

The dollar was also weak against the Japanese currency, but traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled later in the day.

U.S. hedge funds were said to have sold the euro against the yen on speculation one or more of the nine BOJ policy board members may vote in favor of a rate hike at their two-day policy board meeting ending Thursday. Such votes would suggest the central bank as a whole may be turning more hawkish.

Japan's central bank is expected to keep monetary policy intact at the upcoming meeting, but "if several board members vote in favor of a rate rise, concerns over a yen surge will mount," said Michiyoshi Kato, a senior trader at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

He said if the BOJ appears unexpectedly hawkish, market speculation could grow that the bank will raise rates twice this calendar year,pushing up the yen.

Kato thinks the European unit could drop to as low as Y167.50 in the near term while other traders say it could fall to Y167.00 in tandem with falls in other high-yield currencies such as the New Zealand dollar and the pound.

Around 0530 GMT Tuesday, the euro was at Y167.86.

"There's been a widespread cautious mood in markets over the weak yen," said Hiroshi Imaizumi, a senior dealer at Resona Bank. "If the BOJ sends positive signals on rate rises, high-yield currencies including the euro will face downward pressure against the yen."

Early in the Asian session, overseas fund players, U.S. hedge funds in particular, sold the euro, sending it to a session low of Y167.70 from its closing level in New York of Y168.07 on EBS.

The dollar, meanwhile, dropped to Y123.17 against the yen from Y123.38 in New York on selling by non-Japanese short-term investors.

Looking ahead, traders expect that Bernanke will stick to his usual remarks in his speech later in the day. The dollar is only likely to strengthen if Bernanke sounds more hawkish after the strong U.S. jobs data released last Friday.

The Netherlands Purk 05:48 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Ah Patterns, yes where do i have it... On the pattern thing i took a short last night e/u and cashed in this morning. Also took shorts on e/j : started Friday in the high 167 and low 168 thingy... Pattern tells me that we will see 16733 in e/j. Also am looking for a bigger correction. As long as we do not have the ticking to the high thing shorts are fine. Today we first will see unfinished business of the nice Monday we had, that is also the Monday that Zeus told us to take 40 pips from e/j out of the market but nobody cared to see i guess.
After this business what we now see to be exact we have to see if the e/u can go above the 13680ish. OR that we go below 13550.
Whereever he lays his HAT was his home.

bbsapul 05:26 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
judging from usd index patern, dollar could be grinding down slowly lke it did during march, april and may


hi alimin: what did your statement mean?
US dollar is weak now?

Macao Sofia 05:24 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD is likely trading within 0.77-0.81 in next few weeks.

Syd 05:10 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
On borrowed time: markets stare into abyss
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,2121050,00.html

Syd 04:57 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Graham Turner of GFC Economics has ranked global currencies in terms of their creditworthiness, using 11 factors such as the current account deficit and the ratio of exports to short-term debt.

"New Zealand is by far the highest risk," he says. "It scores badly on every one of the 11 indicators." With Iceland's economic problems already troubling investors, the next test for markets could come from the other side of the world.

USA Zeus 04:56 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:20 GMT July 10, 2007

True- except it was likely censored from the commoners because the last thing they need are people speaking freely right before a global event. Still have horrible memories of tanks and students...

Syd 04:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD support at 0.7740 with pullback to 0.7680 worst case scenario. Having risen pretty rapidly over the last month, the softer business confidence survey is having some people maybe second guessing how strong the NZ economy is. ABN Amro

Syd 04:48 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Ex Head Of China Food & Drug Safety Admin Executed Tue -TV

BLOODY censored

Syd 04:39 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs says China's record-high trade surplus in June highlights ineffectiveness of "policy tinkerings" that have "failed to tackle the root cause of China's bloating trade surplus - the significantly undervalued currency". Trade surplus widened to record high $26.9 billion in June, up from $22.5 billion in May. Notes China export growth in June at 27.1% on year, "largely unchanged" from 28.7% in May, but imports growth "softened" to 14.2% on year, down from 19.1% in May. Expects no material change in near future as effects of export rebate cuts "are likely to be offset by stronger global industrial production momentum

Makassar Alimin 04:39 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
judging from usd index patern, dollar could be grinding down slowly lke it did during march, april and may

Lahore FM 04:38 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
ACC sir,not missis Watanabe but i am.from GVI.

Lahore FM 04:34 GMT July 10, 2007
Lahore FM 18:35 GMT July 9, 2007
Sell NzdJpy
Entry: 96.19 Target: 94.20 Stop: 96.60

nzd looks like having topped out for the cycle.selling nzdjpy here
---
closed 1/3rd at 95.64.stops for remainder at 96.40 now.

Syd 04:36 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
NZ PM: Free Trade Agreement With China Still 2 Years Away
WELLINGTON (AP)--New Zealand hopes to wrap up a comprehensive free trade agreement with China by mid-2009 - a year later than scheduled - Prime Minister Helen Clark said Tuesday.


Sydney ACC 04:33 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy's blitz puts paid to pact on policy

France has slipped down the rankings to become the sick man of Europe, with a growth rate of 1.8pc since 1991 compared with 2.8pc for OECD peers. It's share of eurozone exports has fallen 18pc since the launch of the euro, leading to an unprecedented trade deficit of €29.2bn in 2006.

Germany has reclaimed her place as the world's biggest exporter. By holding down wages through a relentless squeeze, German has gained 22pc in cost competitiveness against France since the launch of EMU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/10/cnfrance110.xml

Lahore FM 04:32 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007
short nzdusd 0.7799.tentative stops at 0.7840.target 0.7640.
----
closed 1/3rd at 0.7758.
stops for the rest lowered to 0.7820.

Sydney ACC 04:26 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi is off half a cent. Maybe Mrs Watanabe is taking profit on her NZD/JPY positions.

Sydney ACC 04:20 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:19 GMT July 10, 2007
I telkl you what though, if an official or poolitician had said that in Sydney in 2000 during the Olympoics they would have lynched him. Maybe its sign of their civilised nature that he ewas able to say that at all.

USA Zeus 02:52 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:44 GMT July 10, 2007

Was not my opinion but an interesting AP write-up tittled "Beijingers 'still need to work on manners' for 2008" that quoted chinese (people of China) officials.

As for the paper (and- mansions, yachts, jewelry, exotic cars, private jets) and those who host the games- to each their own I guess.

Halifax CB 02:44 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:18 GMT July 10, 2007
OTOH, I have noticed some countries that are rolling in (paper) wealth and have enough money to become grossly overweight and hold a number of Olimpics still haven't learned those lessons....

Mtl JP 02:33 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Is the housing market about to crash? New Zealand Herald
In April 2007 our M3 money supply increased by year on year by per cent14.4! This is the true indicator of inflation within NZ. Housing market collapse?

USA Zeus 02:19 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Sorry- Last post in wrong forum

USA Zeus 02:18 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Hoping for window dressing some civilised Chinese err people of China of higher quality-

BEIJING (AFP) - With most venues for the 2008 Summer Olympics near completion, organisers said Beijingers still had to work on improving their behaviour in order to hold a successful Games, state press said Monday.

"The Olympic Games is not simply a matter of competitive sports -- it is also a question of raising the quality of the people," the China Youth Daily quoted Zhang Faqiang, vice head of the Beijing Olympic organising committee as saying.

"You cannot deny it -- the difficult area in staging a civilised Olympics rests in the quality of the people," Zhang said.

"We are still a ways off from meeting the demands for a real civilised Olympic Games, so we will continue to do important work on this."

Zhang said China had only recently overcome basic issues like food shortages, and many people across the nation were only beginning to consider how to live healthier lives and be more civilised.

hk ab 02:12 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman// 1/5!

Syd 01:36 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Australian May Housing Finance +0.1% Vs +0.5% Consensus
The number of housing-finance approvals in Australia rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in May from April, the Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.

Economists surveyed ahead of the announcement on average had expected a rise of 0.5% in May.




Syd 01:22 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Tuesday the government wants the Bank of Japan to support economic growth with monetary policy, but added that setting interest rate levels is up to the central bank.

"Our basic stance is that we want (the bank) to underpin stable economic growth from the monetary side," Omi said at a news conference after a regular Cabinet meeting. "(But) what to do with specific interest rate levels is up to the BOJ to decide."

Omi's comments came ahead of the central bank's two-day policy board meeting starting Wednesday. While most analysts expect the bank to keep short-term rates unchanged at 0.50% this month, they're closely watching whether any of the BOJ's nine board members votes for a rate increase, a move that could signal a rate hike in August.

The bank last raised rates in February when it increased the overnight call rate, or the rate charged on overnight loans between banks, to 0.50% from 0.25% in its first credit-tightening since July 2006.

Syd 00:34 GMT July 10, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand has the highest current account deficit of the developed nations and a major rating agency has warned of the increased possibility of an abrupt slowdown in home buying. The government has already expressed its concern about the strength of the currency so there are arguments against further interest rate increases.

 




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