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Forex Forum Archive for 07/11/2007

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Syd 23:58 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ's manufacturing activity declined last month as manufacturers bowed under pressure of strong NZD, high interest rates, cost pressures, Business NZ's latest Performance of Manufacturing Index shows, falling to 50.4 from 55.6 in May. Though a reading above 50 still indicates an expansion in activity, Business NZ CEO Phil O'Reilly says "if current trend continues, a period of contraction... is a distinct possibility." Survey offers little comfort to RBNZ, which is looking for rebalancing of economy toward export, manufacturing sectors and away from domestic-driven demand. Shows manufacturers struggling to cope with soaring NZD, which last week brushed a fresh post-float high of 0.7880. PMI also showed sizable level of negative sentiment among manufacturers, with proportion of negative comments rising to 65% from 64% in May.

USA Zeus 23:35 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Now that lucky lou 1.3777('s) was reached market is likely to hit 1.2777('s) by 2008.

Syd 23:17 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy's 'General Attack' on the Eurozone
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is not playing ball when it comes to European fiscal policy. He wants to postpone France balancing its books by two years, and is questioning the independence of the European Central Bank -- much to Berlin's chagrin.http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,493777,00.html

Syd 23:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
U.K. house prices continued to rise in June, although the pace of increase was more than cut in half from May to an 18-month low as four interest rate hikes in just 10 months have begun to take hold, according to a survey released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Wednesday.

The RICS survey showed that, in seasonally adjusted terms, the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in house prices exceeded the proportion reporting a fall in prices by 10.6 percentage points, down from 22.5 points in May.

The sharpness of the decline in the headline measure was a surprise. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week had expected the measure to fall to just 20 points.

Syd 22:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
IHI Rushing To Raise Funds Ahead Of Rate Hikes Nikkei
TOKYO (Nikkei)--IHI Corp. (7013.TO) has been scrambling to procure investment funds to avoid higher interest rates, the Nikkei Financial Daily reported in its Thursday edition.

Mtl JP 22:02 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:50 / farmers should LOVE and wish for even more drought then, how about enough drought for a $100 head of lettuce , rofl ?

Gen dk 21:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 21:50 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Dollar threat to grower gains
THE fallout from Australia's disastrous drought is slowly easing with farm produce prices rising 15.5 per cent over the past 12 months.

The Westpac-National Farmers' Federation commodity index is at its highest level in 18 years, but the strong Australian dollar has eroded some of the gains on offer from the high global prices.

Van jv 21:06 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:28
""""what a nice comeback for carry trades, it is very much well and alive, until the japs do something of course...but they love it too, so i guess everyone is happy""""IMO It all goes on with tacit approval of US authorities to the delight of major banks and hedge funds---it is controlled , pre meditated manipulation and has a character of insider trading, should be treated as such...

USA Zeus 20:45 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
In for a great trading summer as the bucking bronco earnings season gets under way and the decoupling and recoupling of the financial markets marches on.

Syd 20:44 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Sub-prime mortgages 'set to grow' Datamonitor said increasing numbers of people would have poor credit histories in future, fuelling sub-prime lending. Further growth in sub-prime lending may have dangers for the housing market and the wider UK economy. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6288738.stm

USA Zeus 20:42 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
The LT message of the strong dollar policy will rip most ST minded folks (thinking they are LT cyclical thinkers) that act like a wind up jack-in-the-box who is turning the global crank as they go- POP!

Lahore FM 20:40 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad 1.0542.stops 1.0500.target open.

Syd 20:38 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Big Japan Corp Bonds In Pipeline As Higher Rates Loom -Nikkei
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Large bond issuances are on the rise, with Tokyo Electric Power Co.and Japan Tobacco Inc. among those seeking to secure long-term financing ahead of an expected climb in interest rates, The Nikkei reported in its Thursday morning edition.
Tepco on Wednesday announced the flotation of Y50 billion in 10-year straight bonds with a coupon rate of 2.025%. The power utility has already reached half the Y400 billion in issuances planned for fiscal 2007.
Japan Tobacco seeks to issue Y150 billion in bonds to refinance borrowings from its acquisition of Gallaher Group Plc, a U.K. cigarette manufacturer. Demand is currently being gauged through a brokerage.
On Tuesday, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings Inc.approved Y20 billion in five-year bonds, and Rakuten Inc.submitted a shelf registration for its first publicly offered straight bond issuance.
Corporate bond issuances for the April-June quarter totaled Y2.46 trillion, up 36% on the year, and the balance for the first half of 2007 was up 29% at Y4.3 trillion. With the Bank of Japan expected to hike key rates, interest rates overall are seen rising.
"Amid strong corporate appetite for issuances, the growth trend will continue through the year," says Tsuyoshi Ando, head of debt capital markets at Mizuho Securities Co.

USA Zeus 20:37 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well the gift of gold came since last week, the lucky 1.3777('s) fulcrum point, now just need oil to kick it in gear.

Oh yeah almost forgot....Why is everyone talking about a so called "carry trade" ending, returning, coming or going- when they can simply just trade??

Flows people...flows

Mtl JP 20:35 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
CB 19:44 / I see a couple of reasons why you call it "fictional"

GVI john 20:34 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Gen dk 20:25 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Toronto MRC 20:20 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:28 GMT July 11, 2007

The carry trade is a longer duration bet. We have been seeing reduction of risk which is likely to resume. At this point the major players in this game are not willing to fall all over each other to get out but we are seeing the early stages of a trend.

London 20:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
US Official: Low Risk Of Severe China Fincl Crisis Next 5 Yrs


WASHINGTON (AP)--A senior U.S. intelligence analyst said Wednesday that parts of China's financial system are unhealthy, but assessed only a low risk of severe financial crisis over the next five years.

Thomas Fingar, the top intelligence analyst in the Office of the National Intelligence Director, told lawmakers that China's state-owned banks have large balances of non-performing loans.

But, he said, "China is introducing market measures to the financial sector and has massive foreign exchange reserves, current and capital account surpluses and low exposure to short-term foreign currency debt."

Beijing is working to curb rural discontent, which "could undermine continued rapid economic growth if not addressed," he said in prepared testimony before the House of Representatives' Armed Services Committee.

Fingar said China's rapid military modernization "reinforces concerns about Chinese intentions toward Taiwan."

"We assess that China's aspirations for great power status, threat perceptions and security strategy would drive its modernization effort even if the Taiwan problem were resolved," he said.

U.S. officials regularly press China for more transparency about the aims of its military buildup. China raised its military budget by 17.8% this year to about $45 billion - the biggest jump since 1995. The Pentagon says actual Chinese defense spending could be twice as high.

Lahore FM 19:47 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:41 GMT July 11, 2007
thanx CB!

Halifax CB 19:44 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT July 11, 2007
I tend to agree, my fav. fictional scenario atm is one ME potentate decides to he doesn't like the US and announces publicly he's exchanging his couple-of-hundred-billion US reserves for Euro or JPY or gold (or even CNY) for religious reasons... Bingo, liquidity dries up (who wants to long USD then?) Derivatives and other marvels of Gaussian financial engineering should happily add to the toxic soup...
BTW, I wonder what the actual amount of daily FX is when you take out the ping-ponging....

dc CB 19:41 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Loonie’s Flight To Take A Bite Out Of Canada’s Economic Growth

Ottawa, July 11, 2007 – The high-flying dollar is expected to diminish Canada’s economic growth over the remainder of this year, according to the Conference Board’s Canadian Outlook – Summer 2007.

“The surge in the Canadian dollar during the second quarter of 2007 exceeded anything we have seen recently, and it put additional strain on manufacturers and exporters,” said Pedro Antunes, Director, National and Provincial Forecast. “Canadian manufacturers are expected to respond by investing heavily in productivity-enhancing machinery.”

Although the Canadian economy charged ahead in the first quarter, the rising loonie has led the Conference Board to downgrade its 2007 growth forecast to 2.5 per cent for this year, instead of the 2.8 per cent forecast in the Spring Outlook.

The rise in the dollar occurred not because of changes in economic fundamentals, but through changed financial market sentiment toward the Canadian economy. In addition to the strong dollar, the fact that U.S. growth will be modest will limit Canada’s export growth potential in 2007. After Tuesday’s interest rate increase, the surging dollar should restrain the Bank of Canada from raising short-term interest rates further.

In 2008, stronger economic growth of 3.2 per cent is expected, thanks to a better trade performance and steady consumer spending.

Lahore FM 19:39 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
from gvi.
Lahore FM 19:36 GMT July 11, 2007
short gbpjpy 248.51.no stops as yet.

Makassar Alimin 19:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
what a nice comeback for carry trades, it is very much well and alive, until the japs do something of course...but they love it too, so i guess everyone is happy

nj jf 19:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
jp - the only people who need protection in fx are the retail traders from the brokers.... funds are aware of the risk its easy to calculate if you deal the majors only, those artificial bonds on the other hand thats an accident waiting to happen or has happened.

Bodrum OEE 19:19 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 18:32 GMT July 11, 2007
Bodrum OEE 18:19 GMT July 11, 2007
LKWD JJ

Final correction (and possibly I will repeat myself so excuse me).

I will exclude USD/JPY and not be surprised if it goes higher and the rest of major JPY crosses, lower.

A minorcross TRY (new Turkish Lira my native currency) against JPY is extremely overvalued as well.

Meanwhile same currency (TRY) is undervalued (still) against USD under current conditions (that can change in a heartbeat)


I leave.

Good night.

Gen dk 19:18 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 19:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
1 doll profit over three days with gold shorts.not bad really when most thinking of fresh highs evry one of the last three days.

The Netherlands Purk 19:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
sniff'n the tears....

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 16:46 / In light of some of back of envelope calculations about what percentage price move at a given leverage (say 30:1) would wipe out an asset AND how that could cascade and ultimately affect banks adequacy ratios under Basel II AND further cascade and affect "the stability of the global economy" I tend to agree with "Fed Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner argues that the danger that new crises will be harder to manage should be the ``principal preoccupation'' of central bankers." (bloomberg

“A financial crisis is likely to be a global event, not a local event, and derivatives will probably help make that happen,” Joe Brandon, C.E.O. of General Re, a reinsurer, part of Berkshire Hathaway.

Now, it is generally accepted that FX daily trading volume is approximately $1.5 trillion. I' ll let you make up your own estimate as to 1) what volume would be indicative of a "financial crisis" and 2) what "fundamental" measure might appear should the supposedly "strong dollar" be becoming something else than "strong" faster that "reflecting fundamentals". One (amongst others) possibility: administrative or other kind of difficulties when trying to liquidate (especialy large-sized bond quantities).

The [dump] USD camp will grow and grow...

Bodrum OEE 18:32 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 18:19 GMT July 11, 2007
LKWD JJ


non-fundamentally, should read, fundamentally, rather, I am sorry

Bodrum OEE 18:19 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ

My deepest apologies. I have not seen your response until today. All I can say is that the current conditions are dangerous for those who are JPY bears non-fundamentally. I take liquidity side (opposite) view into account. Nevertheless partially at best. I thank you for your kind response. Best of luck to you.

Iran 18:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
If this is a policy of strong dollar, what is a weak dollar!!!

Bandung AS 18:12 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
which one better to bet AUD/USD or AUD/JPY for preparing employment change report?

hk ab 17:31 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
exit dlr/cad short 1.0565, flat.

USA Zeus 17:15 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Smth tells me the Spermonde Archipelago is inhabited by a very smart trader.

Syd 17:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Panic selling hits property funds
Two of Britain's biggest property funds yesterday stunned investors by slashing the value of their units
Norwich Union's Property unit trust and New Star's Property Unit Trust between them hold nearly £7bn for private investors
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=422221&in_page_id=166

Makassar Alimin 17:06 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:03 GMT July 11, 2007

not familiar with their operation, sorry that's beyond my sphere

but i think the move is not just about jpy, it is usd also thus the trail we saw

LKWD JJ 17:03 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:59 GMT July 11, 2007
LKWD JJ 16:54 GMT July 11, 2007
is that how the mib are masking the carry trade unwind, by selling usd vs gbp and euro?

LKWD JJ 17:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
122.29 todays high $y is 50ma but this time it came up to test from below. first time since april 19th its below 50 ma

hk ab 17:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad tries to avoid the hammer in daily chart now.
it will be trouble enough if it closes at 1.0540...

Makassar Alimin 16:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 16:54 GMT July 11, 2007

if u look at gbp and eur printing new highs, it is not surprising

LKWD JJ 16:54 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
what surprises me is that even though $Y was sold off over 150 pips, the e/j and gbp/j were strong relatively speaking as the moves up that were in those 2 pairs was much larger compared to the usdyen.

hk ab 16:49 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
at first, it's aud, kiwi and cad made all the big moves.
Then eur, gbp, chf.....

now seems only eur has soem strength left.

USA Zeus 16:48 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Oil wants to rip above 73

Syd 16:46 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
In Q & A, Fed's Plosser said that banks are in pretty good shape and the net impact of subprime on the economy should be small. Plosser also said that he's far from certain inflation will moderate in 2008, adding that the Fed will continue to be vigilant on inflation. Plosser added that there are signs that consumer demand will be maintained, with consumer spending and exports cause for optimism.

dc CB 16:31 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones reports Moody's Investor Service today announced that it has put 184 tranches of 91 collateralized debt obligations backed primarily by residential mortgage-backed securities on review for possible downgrade. The rating actions affect securities with an original face value of approx $5.0 bln, representing roughly 0.5% of the total Moody's rated asset backed security CDO universe. By tranche number, the affected CDO tranches account for 3.6% of the total Moody's rated ABS CDO universe. These CDO rating actions primarily reflect Moody's recent rating actions on R.M.B.S. assets associated with first lien subprime mortgages from the 2006 vintage, the second lien loans of the 2005/2006 vintage as well as the structures of the individual transactions. The majority of rating actions taken today (124 rating actions) impacted securities currently rated Baa or lower. There were also 37 A, 15 Aa and 8 Aaa rated tranches placed on review.

prague mark 16:24 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
any idas re USD/JPY into next 24-48h - TIA

USA Zeus 16:21 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Ahh the land of KAAG where the bugger is controlled- and will continue from those posts- beeter listen as he speaks and then NN pushes the buttons.

Now tranches of sub prime have been downgraded like shutting the barn door after Bob's chickens already escaped. They will scratch and sniff ALT-A mortgages next.

BB4N

hk ab 16:19 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
plenty of time and levels to short eur again

The Netherlands Purk 16:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Biggest gain of the week:being flat during the move in bugger, cable and e/u.
Next biggest gain: 110 pips on a single day SHORT bugger...

Syd 16:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Plosser: Will Continue To Be Vigilent On Inflation
Fed Plosser: Far From Certain Inflation Will Moderate In '08

The Netherlands Purk 16:13 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well yes it is about learning, but you can also learn and not do what you have learned.
It is very good to take an objective look to the market. So do not call when e/j is at 16660 ONLY for the downside. Notice the pattern on the bugger is 100 down and 200 up.
This summer will be difficult to trade, and for that easy to trade...
I trust that everybody looked at bugger with two sides. Pattern tell us that the tick tick tactic is very good to use and take good profits.
Loonie as said is still under influence of Oily. So that means that just when you think it is a long and you forgot tobook profit, you are history.
HATS of for oil.

dc CB 16:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Moody's may cut 184 CDO tranches backed by R.M.B.S., action affects $5 bln of securities - Reuters

Sydney ACC 16:09 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
SPURRED by the falling US dollar, surging superannuation fund inflows and the need for secure, high-yielding assets, Australian investors have widened their lead as the biggest international buyers of US real estate.

Australian purchases this year amount to $US7.7 billion ($9 billion) so far, or $US2.2 billion more than in all of 2006, according to New York property researchers Real Capital Analytics.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/aussies-splurge-on-property-in-the-states/2007/07/11/1183833597963.html

Syd 15:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Eurodlr Futures Turn Down, Trim Rate Cut Odds

hk ab 15:40 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
european curr repeating kiwi, cad paths....

Gen dk 15:40 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 15:37 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:29 GMT Its all about no rate rise IMHO , while they have a strong Euro they can string the markets along kidding them they will raise rates and have no intentions of doing it , market players sucked in

hk ab 15:29 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 14:55 GMT July 11, 2007

would that be eur wise or e/j wise?....

USA Zeus 15:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
yeah crude is in a heated battle- lots of whip chop today after the report.

GENEVA JFO 15:25 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hello everybody,

eur/usd : seems overbght around 1.3770.
got a sell signal with first object 1.3690
let's see how we close today and tom.
could be very indicative for next weeks direction.....

gd trd all

hk ab 15:24 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, the crude action is not as good as that eur path

hk ab 15:18 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
carry trade is back in instant....

USA Zeus 15:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Strange how that fulcrumatic pivotal strange attractor 1.3777('s) works on EUR/USD
LOL

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:12 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:08 GMT

not so strange ab, remember EURUSD rallies whenever and whatever cross is ralllying, CHF, GBP or JPY. It does not however follow those crosses lower if USDCHF declines, EUR also rallies.

Not logical but that is what happened just now.

hk ab 15:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy as planned. 123 next station.

hk ab 15:08 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
so strange that the action is on chf but not eur.

Syd 15:07 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Closes Emerging Market Forex Positions

Syd 14:55 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
The European Central Bank will "closely" monitor price developments in the 13 countries that share the euro, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Wednesday.

"The ECB will continue to monitor closely all developments to ensure that risks over the medium term do not materialize," he told European Union parliamentarians in a presentation of the ECB's 2006 annual report

HK Kevin 14:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Just my gut feeling, tomorrow's market will re-visit today's high/low. Short tiny AUD at 8636 with 30 pips stop.

madrid mm 14:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
"Between January 2000 and May 2007, the Australian dollar/Japanese yen currency pair (AUD/JPY) offered an average annual yield of 5.14%. For most people, this return is a pittance, but in a market where leverage is as high as 200:1, even the use of five to 10 times leverage can make that return extremely extravagant. Investors earn this return even if the currency pair fails to move one penny. However, with so many people addicted to carry trades, the currency almost never stays stationary. In the past 6.5 years, the AUD/JPY exchange rate increased 83%, bringing the cash-on-cash return on a long AUD/JPY trade to 100%. At two times leverage, that's 200%. " Investopedia.com

The rest in the Help Forum.

london al 14:48 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
test.

Lahore FM 14:12 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:10 GMT July 11, 2007
yep Kevin,today's price action is one fine example of need to book profits.with 245.05 low and 248.00 plus high on gbpjpy it becomes evident.gtgl.

HK Kevin 14:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:04 GMT, very true. I have a short AUD/JPY position from 105.16. Plenty of time for me to cover the position this Asian morning around 104.20-40, but ended up with my stop profit order hit at 104.91.

Lahore FM 14:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 13:59 GMT July 11, 2007
HK ab
as Purky teaching "take profit first"
---
very importnat lesson which maybe relearnt everyday for fx profits can be transient to the very limit.

hk ab 14:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//dlr/chf limit 1.1945

Hong Kong WT 13:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
HK ab
as Purky teaching "take profit first"

HK Kevin 13:57 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 13:51 GMT, USD/CAD may close around 1.0550 today. 1.0520 may be tested tomorrow, then up again if my prediction is right.

hk ab 13:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
WT//you may take a look at cad/jpy first

Hong Kong WT 13:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
I take profit on this wave usdcan from 1.06 to 1.0550.
Now it is next wave to think up or down.

USA Zeus 13:48 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well Wed and already up more than 777 pips- not too shabby.
LOL

hk ab 13:43 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
let's see if dlr/cad can close under 1.0550 first.

hk ab 13:42 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
commod curr and gold made lots of divergence today. Seems every move is due to yen cross.

Makassar Alimin 13:33 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
usdcad above 1.16 might be a good r/r zone at least for now to establish some short position, it has qualified as 150+pips bounce from low and seems to be meeting some resistance

Hong Kong Qindex 13:29 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to trade below 2.0205 - 2.0225.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range from the monthly cycle is 2.0291 - 2.0377 and the mid-point reference of 2.0291 and 2.0377 is 2.0334.

GVI john 13:25 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
In the July monthly forex spot rate sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has worsened. The three-month ahead mean currency spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3542 from 1.3435 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (July 9 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3630.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was steady in the EUR/USD at 48 from 46 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forex spot rate forecast improved to 122.27 from 120.24 one month ago. The USD/JPY currency spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 123.35. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was 37 after 43.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $71.33 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $67.97 estimate.

In a special question, 66% said they felt that the ECB refi rate target (now 4.00%) rate would end the year at 4.50%. 23% saw 4.25% at yearend, and 1% saw a rate above 4.50%.

For complete detailed survey results including history see:
monthly forex spot rate survey

Hong Kong Qindex 13:24 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:56 GMT - GBP/USD : The market may reverse its direction in front of 2.0377 or any time, if my assumption is right that EUR/USD and USD/CHF have reached its targeting point already.

prague mark 13:22 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
cable will dive sooner than later IMHO

hk ab 13:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
that 30 pips shallow retracment seems telling further weakness of usd before NY close.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:15 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The monthly cycle lower barrier is positioning at 1.1945 // 1.2008. We may have seen the recent low already if the market is able to trade above 1.2047.

hk ab 13:12 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
my most optimistic view on kiwi is 7920 then, there must be a relief retracement.

hk ab 13:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad will confirm south move at 1.0550 convincing break.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:06 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : When the market is rejected from the monthly cycle barrier at 1.3714 // 1.3770, the odds are high that we may have seen the recent high already around 1.3781. The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle are 1.3600 - 1.3657 - 1.3714* // 1.3770 - 1.3827 - 1.3940*.

hk ab 13:02 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
some luck for me lately.

Como Perrie 13:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Maybe yesterday sparked some decent redemption out of many funds..hence unpredictability this early


US mortgage problem fears spark sell-off

By Michael Mackenzie and Saskia Scholtes in New York

Published: July 10 2007 20:55 | Last updated: July 10 2007 23:48

Fears of further problems in the US mortgage industry and the broader economy flared on Tuesday, triggering a sell-off in credit markets as investors sought safe havens.

Markets were rattled when Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, threatened to downgrade the credit ratings on some $12bn of bonds backed by US subprime home loans. This raised concerns of a broader repricing of risk in credit markets, leading to heavy losses for some investors, particularly in derivative markets.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/343aca72-2f1a-11dc-b9b7-0000779fd2ac.html

Como Perrie 12:58 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Apparently yet some suprime concerns lagging onto markets this early US open.

Makassar Alimin 12:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:43 GMT July 11, 2007

thank you very much Qindex, looking forward to your mentioned gbpusd level, good trades

HK [email protected] 12:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   

Yen

>>>119.50 for USD/Yen has become a possibility, though to be safe one may add yen longs below todays low(-5 pips) if seen.
The NZ has a very strong lobby because a big money is stuck up there with no ability for an honorable exit.
Eventually the strengthening of the Yen may get them all.




hk ab 12:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Ahe//The funny pattern of dlr/jpy keeps repeating.

There maybe one more leg north but if kiwi can't use this dlr/jpy north leg to make a new high, some further liquidation can be seen early Aug.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:43 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is heading towards 2.0379.

USA Zeus 12:41 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:28 GMT July 11, 2007
Hi ab- Answered there. :-)

Hong Kong Qindex 12:41 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to challenge the projected chart point at 1.3781.

Plovidv Gotin 12:32 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
jkt az 10:08 GMT July 11, 2007
Hi forum, any key res gbp$
tq
2.0363/73/90...2.0400/12/19/27.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:04 GMT - Carry is back. Kiwi may see 0.7920/30 soon. The best moment for its dip has been passed and it cannot penetrate through 0.7720/30. I do hope it will be down to 0.7630 or 0.7480. But Carry is still in a strong trend. While GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD and JPY keep on appreciating with USD and many with new highs, NZDUSD cannot be dipping too much as we all wished. GL GT

hk ab 12:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, left you a qns in future F.

hk ab 12:25 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
at these levels, we will soon meet many options barrier.

USA Zeus 12:21 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
And some said we were all set for summer ranges and dull markets.....but we knew better. LOL

london tv 12:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
small short aud/usd 8613

Makassar Alimin 12:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:47 GMT July 11, 2007

ab, do you notice that usd index's orderly decline is kept in place by 'manipulating' one or two pairs? same old strategy...usdcad can rally while the rest of usd pairs can go down the flush

Makassar Alimin 12:06 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:50 GMT July 11, 2007

yes, and when they say strong dollar policy, we know how strong the dollar is....

hk ab 12:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
kiwi look stale and anyone give it a push it will be over the cliff.

hk ab 12:03 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
yesterday we have the test of 1.3666 and then shallow retracement.
today 1.3777 and 30 pips shallow retracement?

hk ab 11:55 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
seems not many post usd buying positions.

hk ab 11:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
I am very interested to know any gvi friends are still usd bull.

Mtl JP 11:50 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Alimin 11:42 / why "punishment" ? low(er) usd fiat is supposed to be helpful to US exports and keeping the GDP churning; never mind internal price-inflationary contribution.

hk ab 11:47 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
seems someone is watching dlr index, not, eur, yen alone.

Makassar Alimin 11:42 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
market is very punishing, usd is next replacing jpy as toilet paper, especially against the contis

Como Perrie 11:36 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
there are some risks we might extend towards that magic 1.3777 nicely spotted by zeus...not sure if a breach there...guess the tone there is linked to the subrpime wows if those persist today again...

Como Perrie 11:30 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
btw looks to be an interesting US opening today...have a good one

Como Perrie 11:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 10:50 GMT July 11, 2007

I do distinguish every single fund by the composition of Its risks and assets primarily, then other specifical factors. At least this is how am seeing at the things. Just then imo we do have the grouped risks etc. as country, systemic and on and on ... btw life is a risk of dying that we can only offset in time or some narcisitic thought to be remembered by some rocky statues...but the latter is the daily madness dose to me

hk ab 11:25 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
a steep support line at 1.0561 in hrlym, if 1.0550 rebreak, we can add more short there.

GVI john 11:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
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Charts: Updated Bourses..
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hk ab 11:02 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
then they should go to lots of gbp and cad 'cos they are too dependent on oil.

melbourne DC 10:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Ito (advisor to Abe): $700B in reserves should be diversified into EUR, AUD, and emerging market currencies

hk ab 10:58 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
But signs start showing dlr/cad m/t bottom in place at 1.0440.

hk ab 10:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
SAR 1.0590

hk ab 10:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
sorry 1.0572

hk ab 10:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
will reverse all dlrcad longs at a blip, if not, at the b/e 1.1572.

hk ab 10:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy marching back towards 123 to collect more victims.

dc CB 10:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Reuters reports Alcan (AL) has begun negotiating toward a merger agreement with Rio Tinto plc (RTP) to fend off a hostile bid from rival Alcoa (AA), Canada's the Globe and Mail newspaper reported on its Web site. Britain's Times newspaper also reported that Rio was poised to launch a $34 bln takeover of Alcan, saying that bankers believe the rival offer "is ready to go hot" with a formal approach within two weeks.

Monaco Oil man 10:50 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:50 GMT July 11, 2007

No I mean FACT is , forex funds, and forex products offered in banks are safe...

Comparatively to energy funds, or even stock funds, forex is safer...Even though forex is always pointed at, the major burst are done elsewhere.

madrid mm 10:37 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:44 GMT July 11, 2007
No PAR.
japanese housewives are doing the trick at the moment !! lol
8+-)
Soon we will have the grand pas and grad mas coming into the fray

Syd 10:33 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Royal Bank of Scotland has put out a sell technical trade alert on NZD/CHF. The bank gives three factors why it sees the cross reversing its intermonth uptrend. The completion of a "3 rallies to the top" bearish divergence sequence on the daily charts with weekly and monthly RSI's in overbought territory. Achievement of the 0.9500 long-term retracement target (76.4% of 1.0490-0.6280 decline) and inability to sustain the break above 0.9450 Dec '05 high. Lastly the combined effects of central bank activity, NZD selling and rising CHF money market rates should add weight to a negative scenario on the cross. NZD/CHF trades around 0.9350 and the bank says position for failure of 0.9300 on a weekly closing basis for a move through 0.9065 (23.6% Fibo), reinforcing the topping scenario and opening risk toward 0.8745 and 0.8485, placing a stop at 0.9610.

Makassar Alimin 10:27 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 09:59 GMT July 11, 2007

i might be talking my own book, but that's the way it is gonna be, demo trading is the place where we won't get anxious

Syd 10:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
ECB' have no intentions of increasing interest rates,there rhetoric suggest they are talking the talk but thats about it

hk ab 10:09 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
close another quarter at 1.0605, rest stop at b/e

jkt az 10:08 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Hi forum, any key res gbp$
tq

Bandung AS 10:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Bet AUD will be more wise to bet until employment change report released.. comment please..

Bon Air VA Dennis 09:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 09:56 GMT

a little over anxious aren't you? only 20319/20 high thus far

Ldn 09:57 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
'Most expensive' US home on sale
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6290160.stm

A Beverly Hills mansion has been advertised for sale at $165m (£81.4m), making it the most expensive residential property listing in the US.

Makassar Alimin 09:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd is almost 2.04 now, some more stops hit will help but guess smart money will start scaling out

hk ab 09:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you see aud will follow the cad path?

Syd 09:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
EU: Chinese Trade Barriers Cost EU Billions In Lost Exports


Como Perrie 09:50 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 09:34 GMT July 11, 2007

Oh well there are believe me. Maybe not that single trader you have been talking too, me was just talking compunded levels. Bit busy at current...so will look later on into...

btw yesterday Cyprus and Malta adapted the euro.

hk ab 09:49 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
close 1/2 @1.06

hk ab 09:48 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks for the fuel

Monaco Oil man 09:34 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:52 GMT July 11, 2007

I haven't met any banks or funds that hold positions leveraged up to the moon to burst on a 200 pips dips....

I mean respectable funds / Banks (That aren't in energy lol ).

GL.

The Netherlands Purk 09:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Stops on bugger btw are at 16722... let us see if can be taken.

The Netherlands Purk 09:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
I dont care why it happens Perrie, i just take a look at the market, see streched things, wait some wait some more and than take a contra. Sometimes i go where Dick goes. I also do not know who Dick is, if i did i was not here...

Como Perrie 09:23 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
your previous post seemed so to me at least--
. so far i do not know this d... you mention ...nor your folie ala deux statments here why has happened... guess you guys have to solve It and start to work it over in the fx sense...btw yen pairs the more chaotical today as an enviroment...liquidity yet erratic imvho

The Netherlands Purk 09:18 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
You mean exited with profit at 16655 for some possies?PLOL
Forex does not excite me Perrie. I am in it for the money, nithing more nothing less.
I dont care about stops i just take pips from Dick.

PAR 09:18 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
No need to unwind carry since time works in your favor and you have such an unbelievable interest rate advantage .

Como Perrie 09:11 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   

The Netherlands Purk 09:09 GMT July 11, 2007

being excited is the wrong approch.. current micro phase is erratic in nature and except the boj/mof sans are behind the market might be lagging some. Overall bigger stops usdjpy are far away around the 122 region, which is very far from here.

Syd 09:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Property Market Faces Bad Debt Scare
Homebuyers in the UK may soon be feeling the effect of a bad debt crisis in the US.
Analyst Datamonitor says in the UK the sub-prime market, as it is known because it lends to those who have poor credit ratings and have often defaulted on repayments, increased by 28% during 2006, to a total of £24.6bn.

This side of the market is likely to continue expanding at nearly twice the rate of the traditional mortgage market but is also at risk from people defaulting on their loans.

It is expected to be worth some £31.5bn by 2011, after growing at an annual rate of nearly 5%.

Report author Maya Imberg said: "There remains significant opportunity in the UK sub-prime mortgage market, however, growth is slowing."

Healthy economic growth, low interest rates, low unemployment and a rampant housing market had made consumers more willing to borrow and spend, she said.

"However, more consumers are unable to cope with meeting their financial commitments.

"High levels of consumer debt coupled with more difficult economic conditions will drive the sub-prime mortgage market forward over the next five years.

"With more defaulting or meeting payments late, more consumers will fall into the sub-prime population."

The Netherlands Purk 09:09 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well 50 pip bounce on bugger was here, now let us see if 80 can be taken by Dick. He has to be careful because he has to meet 16595...

london tv 09:03 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
13730 needs to break for anyone with euro shorts

Como Perrie 08:55 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
even if the flow acts normally and so is safe to watch.

Como Perrie 08:54 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
so in other words I do see more a day of central banks and small fishes the more active for the some hours ahead at least. plus the big drown down desks not permitted to trade for the next coupla days most probably.

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
I guess many around more busy in reporting than trading today, even banks/funds types.

Como Perrie 08:50 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:44 GMT July 11, 2007

difficult to say ..micro term talking usdjpy has stops from 121.60/70 the most closer ones relative to the short term picture. bigger time spans are far away so far. so am thinking there to be some key level to watch if touched later on. but hard to say anything clear at current

hk ab 08:44 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
need some fuel for the goose flight.

PAR 08:44 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Some BOJ intervention to temper the speed of the yen s appreciation ?

Como Perrie 08:36 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
I do just wonder about yesterday's volumes turned. So bad can't figure out the nums. I guess It was some maybe as the whole week before.

Syd 08:35 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD's outlook has become more volatile after Tuesday's topside breakout, and BHV says it cannot exclude new highs above $1.38 near-term. However, the bank sees one of the main drivers of this move, sub-prime worries, as a temporary issue and one which will not induce a financial crisis in the US. Consequently, says the idea of EUR/USD turning back toward the lower end of a $1.35-$1.30 band by year-end, in the wake of firmer US growth

Como Perrie 08:34 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
maybe par maybe.. It has yet to be seen if boj/mof sans working behind. lotsa of counting/reporting and market reshaping I do see at current at many global desks around.

PAR 08:29 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Already new carry trades being set up by Us investment banks and hedge funds to support Us assets .

The Netherlands Purk 08:23 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Profittaking on yen just begun. I saw the quick 40 pips Lets see if we can get to 16745... or 16595...

Bandung AS 08:22 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
oh very scary move this day... :( better wait tomorrow for AUD news

Gen dk 08:21 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 08:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
FM hehehe no not really was ok with aussy but got caught on euro now flat on it forming fresh thots. gl gt

Lahore FM 08:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NS gud day too.hope you took your share off the cake.gtgl!

The Netherlands Purk 07:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 01:05 GMT June 28, 2007
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:49 GMT June 28, 2007
The "carry trade cycles"identification, is a complex one as it is purely dictated by the "carry trade issuers" from japan. To put it simply, a way to identify that we are moving from the 'selective stage"to the "secondary"stage is when you see what we see now....dips been bought after the upsurges..when these retracements get shalower and shallower it confrims that we are moving to the secondary stage which produces no significant dips and a trend reversal commences.after that it is a straight line ..to put this into numbers....166-16385 is the selective stage.....16385-16108 is secondary...under 16108 all there is 156..trading in between these levels while positioned for the "big drop "at the same time is best way to tackle right now...so with current scenario, i prefer to sell from the highs rather than buy from the lows, as R/R is better been positioned to the long term downside than to the upside..the g.t,,,,

Lahore FM 07:59 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
1.73 to 1.58**

Lahore FM 07:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 07:51 GMT July 11, 2007
CB,your observation touches upon the fundamenal side to the issue.what i see is from the tech side mostly and on this occasion the reason is for example the fall of euraud from 1.73 to 1.48 now in need of retrace.same for eurnzd and gbpaud and so on.so it is this double retrace looming for commodity currencies which is creating the effect i guess.gt!

hk ab 07:55 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Maybe GC martin can shed us more light on yen crosses and kiwi.

Mumbai NS 07:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
FM gud day good observation n gud luck gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 07:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
So let us see: Bugger: downside to break are 16595 that is the low of the day in my book of secrets. Upside there is 16745. When it break 16745 again just let it go says the book.
After 16595 downside there is 16529 and that is a long way. But (t) do not forget to watch out for those 50-80 pip jumps. Dick may increase the jumps to 80-120.
So that means we can see 16600 and 16720 in a few ticky hours... Just watch the highs of the previous days and we are at it.

Halifax CB 07:51 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:37 GMT July 11, 2007
That's an interesting point, FM. I wonder if it's due to the commodity ccy's just being from smaller countries - or more nefariously - Japan needs to start buying raw materials?

HK Kevin 07:48 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Be ready for next selling wave of YEN crosses after European market opening

The Netherlands Purk 07:45 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 07:15 GMT July 11, 2007

SO i dont wish you many Ah? WT?

Lahore FM 07:37 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
a striking feature of jpy action on crosses is that it is unwinding principally against commodity currencies,namely,cad,aud and nzd and as it is happening there is good buying of euro gbp and chf against the commodity currencies which has supported them against usd thus far.how long it can go on will depend on how boj acts and market reacts to it.

hk ab 07:36 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
have a bit wider stop for scope of 1.06-1.07

HK Kevin 07:32 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, USD/CAD possibly will test 1.0620, but I can't predict today's close.

Gen dk 07:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:22 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Today an interesting day to be followed closely. Can't really say anothing the short term at current. Largely will recap the picture at today's very late closing.

Como Perrie 07:19 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:15 GMT July 11, 2007

:)) witz style

Haifa ac 07:15 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:10 GMT July //What about a Harley V-Rod (or whatever the name is)?

Hong Kong WT 07:15 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Purky
Ah..... is very local in hong kong
thank you. Will keep take profit ( loss) wave by wave.

Trap of CAN when it is in dropping position, it go up. When it is in flying position, it fall down.

Como Perrie 07:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
A car can massage organs which no masseur can reach. It is the one remedy for the disorders of the great sympathetic nervous system.
Jean Cocteau

The Netherlands Purk 07:08 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
So if you are in profit, protect them, profit will get dinner on the table. Loonie gives chances if you are prepaired to take them, both ways...

The Netherlands Purk 07:04 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Ah WT now you are talking. Now it gets dangerous.... The more people willjoin the more Dick will like it and eat stops. Loonie will fly when it is ready. Oily still to high for a major follow up. Only 10655 and above will show us 10787-10845.
Keep an eye on the ranges of the last few weeks and than the ranges for up. It can suddenly move against you.

hk ab 07:03 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
ok 1.0580 stops are cleared. waiting for jackpot 1.06

Bandung AS 07:02 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
what makes USD/CAD very sharp up? fundamental = rate hike should make cad stronger right?

Hong Kong WT 07:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/can over 1.0595
more people will join.
will we see 1.0660 again today??

The Netherlands Purk 06:57 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well on e/ it is this now: 16722 or 16622.

hk ab 06:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
buy dlrcad on break 1.0572

Bandung AS 06:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad resistance could break 1.0580??

The Netherlands Purk 06:55 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Profit taken on some 13777777, rest for KAAG.

hk ab 06:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
seeems dlr/cad goes back to buy the break mode.

hk ab 06:49 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
oil man, seems 1.3666 is a adding area for eur.

hk ab 06:47 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, do you have any change on oil view?

hk ab 06:38 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
seems all monies fleed from carry to gold....

Sydney ACC 06:32 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
CBA comment on REINZ housing report:

The June REINZ figures show more definitive signs that the market is slowing. Price growth has softened, turnover has fallen noticeably, and the median of days to sell has edged up a fraction.



In levels terms prices have shown signs of levelling off. Moreover, the recent sharp lift in the annual growth rate has been reversed. Annual growth in the smoother but lagging 3-month moving average has also turned down slightly. However, going forward annual growth is likely to slow more noticeably in Q4 rather than Q3, as 2006Q4 was when prices started to rise noticeably.

The Netherlands Purk 06:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
BTW, shorts on e/u at 1377777777 may be have s/l at b/e now, we might see some stophunting. Dick is not hapy with results, there are toomany tinies in profit.

I honour the sand, and taken profit already.
Loonie always gives more chances

Sydney ACC 06:11 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ house prices fall - REINZ

The national median house price dropped by at least $2500 in June, according to latest figures from the Real Estate Institute.

The drop follows an increase of $45,000 over the last year.

The national median price dropped from $350,000 in May to $347,500 in June, the figures show.

Real Estate Institute president Murray Cleland said the residential market had "cooled its heels".

Mr Cleland put the fall down to cold weather and high interest rates

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10450956

The Netherlands Purk 06:02 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Well some previous highs taken out already on e/j. Now see if the retrace is more than 50 pips... It is that simple yes.
And it will go fast.

Sydney ACC 06:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Buffett feasts on Aussie, Kiwi dollars

US investment guru Warren Buffett has made $NZ131.6 million ($119.65 million) for his investment company Berkshire Hathaway by trading the New Zealand dollar.

The Independent Financial Review reported that the profit was made in the period between 2003 and 2006.

Overall, Berkshire has made $US2.2 billion ($2.56 billion) on foreign currency transactions during those years. His position on the Australian dollar reaped a $US247 million.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/buffett-feasts-on-aussie-kiwi-dollars/2007/07/11/1183833558374.html

madrid mm 05:45 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
fwiw but these lvls
121.00 us/yen
1.20 us/chf
1.38 euro/us
will be interesting to watch ..... "Ca passe ou ca casse !!!"
8+-)

Syd 05:41 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar closed steady Wednesday after a volatile 24 hours, and dealers expect it to remain vulnerable to risk aversion in the global session.

Graham Parlane, associatedirector at FX trading house Tricom, said there were enough risk aversion elements entering the market to make investors wary about the Kiwi.

"The market is still really wondering if we're going to see a yen-inspired correction or whether the U.S. dollar weakness we've seen from the euro and sterling strength will be the primary factor here," said Parlane.

He tips the Kiwi's topside to be capped at US$0.7790, with support around US$0.7700 overnight.

Syd 05:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ June House Sales -19.5% Vs May; -11.3% On Year - REINZIt suggests the central bank's aggressive tightening in monetary policy - a combined 75 basis points in March, April and June to the current 8.00% - may be beginning to flow through to the housing market.

But the REINZ said it has tightened the reporting deadline for sales from June, with the earlier cutoff date reducing June reported sales and possibly affecting some median prices.

Activity levels dropped off sharply, with the number of sales falling 19.5% to 7,474 from 9,285 in May. Sales were down 11.3% on the same month a year earlier.

Syd 05:00 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Buy To Let: Central London was once said to be safe as houses. Not any longer The prime central London market has peaked and many investors are deserting the area that made them rich. Savills' price index for the second quarter of 2007 shows that the growth rate in prime central London (usually defined as the area between Oxford Street, Bayswater Road and the Thames) has slowed to 5.7 per cent, down from 8.8 per cent in the first quarter.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2056500.ece

Syd 04:58 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Huge increase in those forced to default on mortgages payments Buyers are being forced to borrow record amounts of money to finance their property purchases
Number of people defaulting on their payments this year has doubled to 77,000 each month
Fears are growing of a dramatic increase in the number of houses that are repossessed

http://money.independent.co.uk/property/mortgages/article2753390.ece

Syd 04:22 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD to stay volatile as "there are enough [reasons] out there to make a few people wary" in terms of risk aversion, unwinding of carry trades, says Graham Parlane, associate director at FX trading house Tricom; "the market is still really wondering if we're going to see a Yen inspired correction or whether the USD weakness we've seen from the Euro and Sterling strength will be the prevailing factor here," he says. Tips relatively wide range overnight, with 0.7790 capping topside, support at 0.7700, with importance of NZD/JPY, meaning tomorrow's BoJ meeting will be watched closely

Bandung AS 04:01 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
in my opinion, USD/CAD can break low record, because BOC said will be more interest rate twice until end of the year (exp 4,75% and then 5%), but why USD/CAD now looks like very sharp up?? how long it will go down?

USA Zeus 03:56 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Nice party yesterday- more to come but it might not be what many think. Let's see...

asta la vista- baby!

Makassar Alimin 03:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
alright, time to try short usdcad 1.0548, stop 1.0580, target open

Syd 03:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Nick Minchin, Leader of Australian government in Senate, raises fear factor about Greens in speech to National Press Club; warns Greens could hold balance of power in Senate if latest Newspoll voter opinion survey repeated in general election. Under Newspoll results scenario, Greens will hold Labor government to ransom to achieve "radical agenda" but won't now spell out quid pro quo. "An election could be called at any time"; urges voters to consider stark choices ahead. Minchin acknowledges coming general election will be a tough battle

Syd 03:16 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Japan's current account surplus grew at a much faster pace than expected in May on a wider income and trade surplus, boding well for economic growth in the second quarter.

The surplus in the current account, which is the broadest measure of the nation's trade with the rest of the world, expanded 31.1% to Y2.134 trillion during the month before seasonal adjustment, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

That's wider than was expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei, who estimated the surplus expanded 19.8% to Y1.949 trillion.

The continued surplus, especially in income from overseas Japanese securities and corporate direct investments, is likely to support growth in the April-June quarter. The income surplus ballooned 36.6% to Y1.788 trillion after April's 41.5% expansion.
The weaker yen inflated repatriated profits from foreign investments, Aida said. The size of the surplus, however, isn't a factor in foreign exchange markets like it was during the heated trade battles with the U.S in the 1980s and early 1990s, he said. That's when comments on bilateral trade action by Washington or a bigger-than expected trade surplus could move currency markets.

The May trade and services surplus expanded 4.0% to Y429.8 billion on an increase in the trade surplus and a shrinking services deficit. The latter contracted because of a smaller tourism deficit and expanded royalties from patents. The trade surplus rose 1.0% to Y490.4 billion, while the services deficit shrank 16.2% to Y60.5 billion, the ministry said.

The surplus data show that the Japanese economy is continuing to get stronger support from its overseas investments, rather than just from shipments of automobiles, electronics and high-tech materials.
Separate data released by the Bank of Japan Wednesday showed that domestic corporate goods prices increased 2.3% to 102.9 in June from the year-earlier month, rising for the 40th straight month.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:03 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD :  Pulling Towards 0.8534. The current expected trading ranges are 0.8462 - 0.8498 - 0.8534* - 0.8570 - [0.8606] - 0.8642 - 0.8679*.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : 121.03 is likely to be tested. The current expected trading ranges are 120.59 // 121.03* - 121.48 - 121.93 - 122.38 - 122.83* - 123.27 - [123.72]

Hong Kong Qindex 02:52 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : 121.03 is likely to be tested. The current expected trading ranges are 120.59 // 121.03* - 121.48 - 121.93 - 122.38 - 122.83* - 123.27 - [123.72] -

Hong Kong Qindex 02:49 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD :  Pulling Towards 0.8534. The current expected trading ranges are 0.8462 - 0.8498 - 0.8534* - 0.8570 - [0.9606]

Bandung AS 02:21 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
what appen with USD /CAD?? USD very very strong... otherside, EUR/USD GBP/USD, usd is very weak

Sydney ACC 01:57 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
newark 01:53 GMT July 11, 2007
Talk of options at 0.8560 to be protected and firm orders lined up to buy at same level.

Sydney ACC 01:57 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
newark 01:53 GMT July 11, 2007
Talk of options at 0.8560 to be protected and firm orders lined up to buy at same level.

newark 01:53 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any support numbers for AUD/USD??

USA Zeus 01:33 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Just feels like that black swan will show itself soon.

USA Zeus 01:28 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Yes gold is doing/has done what we said for the week. Just need oil to kick in and finish it off. Let's see...

Syd 01:26 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
China May Hike Rates 1 To 2 Times In 2H - BOC
China may raise interest rates 1 to 2 times in 2H to curb inflationary pressures, mop up flush liquidity, Bank of China says in note; adds June CPI growth likely to accelerate to close to 4% vs May's +3.4%, so PBOC may hike rates as soon as this month. Estimates China GDP growth at 11.3% in 1H, tips 10.5% growth for full-year 2007. Also tips CNY to rise 4%-5% this year vs USD.

Syd 01:19 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian consumer confidence drifts down 0.6% in July vs June, according to Westpac Bank

Syd 00:58 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Japan May Curr Acct Surplus To Support Econ In 2Q

Japan's economy likely to get support in second quarter after May current account surplus expands by 31.1% on year to Y2.134 trillion, underscoring solid corporate and investment earnings, as seen in income surplus up 36.6% to Y1.788 trillion. Much higher than consensus of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones/Nikkei, who expected current account surplus ballooned 19.8% to Y1.949 trillion

Syd 00:47 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
INSIDE VIEW: Plunge In N Zealand Dollar Could Spark Yen Buying
Nikkei

Halifax CB 00:14 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:49 GMT July 10, 2007
Sorry, been out - I figure its more fun-with-carry-traders time, more than anything else. Put real meaning into "two-way-risk". For all I know, they may actually be bidding it up a bit just to hit it later...Love to have a tap on that phone line...

Syd 00:10 GMT July 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD to trade lower, hurt by unwinding of NZD/JPY carry trades as investor risk aversion rises, Moody's report Monday warning of risks of potential abrupt slowdown in NZ housing market. But NZD/USD losses limited by negative USD sentiment. Dow Jones technical analysis shows daily chart negative as both MACD, stochastic bearish, latter falling from overbought level. Immediate support at 0.7694 (previous cap set June 26), breach of which would target 0.7566 (June 27 low

 




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