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Forex Forum Archive for 07/12/2007

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Syd 23:54 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ASB Treasury Economist Daniel Wills thinks RBNZ will remain on hold at its next review, July 26, despite strong NZ May retail sales print. Notes household spending has tended to be "closely correlated" with house price inflation - as price rises have boosted households' balance sheets. With housing market indicators like latest REINZ house sales report displaying mixed results, central bank has reason to pause. Still, today's data has lifted chance of July hike, ASB puts it at 35% probability vs 30% previously. Strong retail sales also highlight risk of RBNZ hikes later in calendar year if economy, housing market don't appear to be slowing sufficiently to rein in inflation.

Syd 23:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
NZ May retail sales pre-dates the last of the three rate hikes by the RBNZ !!

Hong Kong Qindex 23:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.3693* - 1.3718 // 1.3743* - 1.3768 - 1.3793* // 1.3817 - 1.3842* ...

Syd 23:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Probably the damger is RBNZ getting a little upset with the Kiwi up here

Syd 23:40 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD - to consolidate after touching 26-year high of 2.0366 overnight, supported by GBP/JPY carry trades, expectations of further BOE tightening this year. GBP/USD daily chart mixed: stochastics turned bearish at overbought level while MACD remains bullish. Bearish divergence of stochastics vs GBP/USD spot price, double-top formation on hourly chart, hint at possible near-term reversal. Immediate support at 2.0243 (Wednesday low), breach of which would target 2.0207 (previous cap set July 4); resistance at 2.0366, then 2.0410 (projected top of ascending channel from June 14 low of 1.9656).

Syd 23:39 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC just see it going higher for now, see everything going to overshoot as market is not really trading to the normal pattern more like a runaway train with the women in the engine room , as you said earlier buy dips as we are overbought this morning

Sydney ACC 23:33 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:58 GMT July 12, 2007
Syd got a view of cable its been sagging a bit over the last 24 hours, esopecially against euro, since the RICS data came out.

Syd 23:31 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Stronger-than-expected NZ May retail sales "unwelcome news" for RBNZ; increases risk profile for July rate hike, says ANZ Bank Senior Economist Khoon Goh. Data "effectively reverses" April decline, though Goh notes it's "difficult to gauge what's really going on" given today's number driven largely by supermarket, motor vehicle sales. Thinks key number for RBNZ will be NZ 2Q CPI, .

Syd 23:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Risk Of AUD/USD Pft-Tkg Before Weekend - Suncorp

AUD/USD range expected at 0.8655-0.8680 with no data releases on offer locally to drive market, says Suncorp strategic analyst Chris Graham. After strong gains this week, risks are for profit-taking leading into weekend as well as risk of strong U.S. retail sales tonight; domestic market will then focus on 2Q CPI due in two weeks for direction in interest rates and flow-on effects to FX, he says. AUD/USD now around 18-year highs at 0.8668.

St. Annaland Bob 23:27 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   

ZEUS - vacation not so fun since your zuster and wifey play the Scandinavian sun bath style, and chickens made sure all the sites were your favorite lunch got bitten with no chance for restore ... Purky will send you plastic love out of Holland.

Syd 23:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:18 GMT I dont it was on the Bloomberg TV which i have on the PC they were saying it was the way to slow the market with the BOJ and the FED doing a bit of intervention , remember when the Fed came in in the early 90s

Sydney ACC 23:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:58 GMT July 12, 2007
I can't see the present levels really troubling the central banks the exchange rates have seen these sort of levels at some stage over the last 25 years.
While many rates have gone several days in the same direection the movement has been orderly. Furtrhermore if they intervene they cede the moral ground to the Chinese.

What is of concern is the source of what has been most of this flow, but that now seems to be being augmented by central banks. I wonder what the BIS thinks of central banks buying barrier options and then trying to trigger them with the trading of billions of dollars.

Do you have a reference for Bloomberg?

Syd 23:16 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The results of voter opinion surveys aren't good for the governing Liberal-National Coalition, Prime Minister John Howard said Friday, adding that he intends to fight the next election as leader.

"The polls are not good for us at the moment," and the Coalition has a big fight ahead to win the election, he said in an interview on Radio 3AW.

Syd 23:15 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM: Voter Polls Aren't Good For Coalition

Syd 22:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:47 it looks like the housewives will get there way for now , cant see for the moment anything other than the Fed getting together with the BOJ which was mentioned overnight on Bloomberg.

Pecs Andras 22:49 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
NZ retail sales +1,2%, core +0.8, very strong

Philadelphia Caba 22:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
NZ Retail Sales 1.2%

Cambridge Zoltan 22:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
NZD: retails sales up 1.2%, core up 0.8%, above consensus

Sydney ACC 22:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:28 GMT July 12, 2007

Firstly on a lighter note, beware!

Today is Friday 13th and AUD trades around 0.8666. Superstitious ?

More seriously, Aussie is buy the dips the dips have become shallower, hence yesterdays low of 0.8606 and once we broke through 0.8639 which had been a barrier to its appreciation on several occasions this week it caused a scramble.

Aussie has probably garnered some of its strength from the euro and weak USD, with market talk of 1.40 EUR/USD that would drag other currencies up against USD as well.

USD weakness probably overdone for the moment so may see some pullback prior to data release in New York session.

Probable bottom 0.8645/50 area until data release but sentiment is so so negative USD that it is only a lmatter of time before we hit 87 cents.

I thought Rio move on Alcan may have been a negative. Means no capital return to sharegolders, cease buyback of shares which has been a daily occurrence in London, stable dividends. Similar prospects for BHP.

There is also one other aspect, this one confuses me. Rio is migrating its head office to Monbtreal. If so what impact will that have on franking credits. Given that News and Singtel were readmitted to S&P/ASX 200 that won't change the index followers holdings of their shares.

Syd 22:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Ford My Cut 600 Australia Jobs - Report


Ford Motor Co. (F) of the U.S. may cut up to 600 jobs at its plant at Geelong in Australia's Victoria state, Fairfax newspapers report Friday.


Gen dk 22:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london tv 22:43 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
concencus is 0.5% increase in NZ sales

Philadelphia Caba 22:33 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
short kiwi at 7841 before NZ retail data in case of lower reading, tight stop above 7860. just 1/2 possie.

Philadelphia Caba 22:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd, ACC & GCM .. any comment on aussie, pls? tia!

Syd 22:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
S&P Corrects Major Miscalculation Of Mtge Bonds Under Review


NEW YORK (AP)--Credit ratings service Standard & Poor's Corp. said Thursday it made a major miscalculation earlier in the week, when it overestimated by billions of dollars the value of bonds backed by subprime mortgages it was placing on a negative watch.

Standard & Poor's, which put under review 612 classes of bonds backed by loans given to customers with poor credit history, said Tuesday the total value of those bonds was $12 billion. It revised those figures Thursday to $7.35 billion.

Bon Air VA Dennis 21:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 21:19 GMT

my initial preferred level is 13807, fwiw. Possibly 13798 but I see a 48% chance of seeing 13807 o/n.

Syd 21:39 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Yellen: Productivity Growth Still 'Quite Healthy'
Yellen:Core Measures Better Predict Future Inflation Levels

london tv 21:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
any kind of concensus on NZ data? ive taken a short at 7840

Syd 21:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Yellen: Overall Inflation Matters To Households

bbsapul 21:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
is it a good time to short euro here?

TIA

GVI john 21:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 21:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
NZ May retail sales to set tone for NZD/USD today, poor data print could trigger a drop to support at 0.7790 1045 GMT,

Bon Air VA Dennis 20:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Amusing anything to see/read all the reasons why stocks can not go higher but there is no limit to how high EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURJPY can go basis on E-waves, chart projections, tea leaves or what have you. Are we really talking technical analysis here or talkings ones own book/biases?

Syd 20:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Yellen: 'Upside Risks To Inflation Continue To Be Present'
Expects 'Further Improvement' In Core Inflation
Subprime Woes Unlikely To Have 'Big' Econ Impact
Housing Likely To Stabilize This Year And Next

USA Zeus 19:41 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 contracts up 24.50

LOL

USA Zeus 19:40 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:30 GMT July 12, 2007

Can only imagine that but IF the price surges to be similar to what EUROland pays now- can only imagine the bite and sting it would have in the EU.

That is when the USD might become the ultimate commodity currency as the value of the trillions of barrels of oil in the Green River basin will skyrocket.

Como Perrie 19:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:11 GMT July 12, 2007

:))

remember gasoline at 5 bucks a gallon next year or so

Como Perrie 19:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
flattyland and nite...


too suspicius to have risks open in asean time

Syd 19:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Call me suspicious but something definitly stinks there

Syd 19:16 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Beijing backs Syrian Golan claim
China steps in and guarantees Syria protection against an impending Israeli assault. This is in addition to Russia providing direct militaryassistance and Iran having a pact with Syria. A shooting war is what you get then the entire financial system is about to collapse
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1184063449364&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

dc CB 19:15 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:11 GMT July 12, 2007
dc CB 19:08 GMT July 12, 2007

a really "black" swan :)

Syd 19:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Government Blocks Access To Israeli Web Site
JERUSALEM (AP)--Chinese users have been blocked from accessing Chinese content on an Israel-based Web site since the beginning of July, a spokesman for the site said, diminishing site traffic and the company's profits
The "shvoong.com" site allows users to post short essays and book abstracts, then pays them a modest share of the site's advertising revenues, based on their posts' popularity.

The site hosts almost 2 million articles in 24 languages. The China ban has reduced traffic from 50,000 visitors a day to 30,000, said Eyal Rivlin, director of Shvoong, a Hebrew slang expression for "in the zone." Rivlin said half the site's content, and one-fifth of its visitors, are from China.The company is considering legal action through international trade organizations, Rivlin said, but has found efforts to contact Chinese authorities fruitless. We are trying to penetrate the mystery of Chinese decisions," he said.

USA Zeus 19:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:08 GMT July 12, 2007

And then there are the unknown unknows for oil.

dc CB 19:08 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
imo if oil goes to 90/100

the only way that will happen is if there is a catastrophe of some sort. Oil is an easily manipulated market, since those who actually own the stuff can sell into a runaway market. (and those who own the stuff are in power here for the moment).
For the sheep to be shorn at the pump, the sense of wealth must be maintained. all is good.

The shorts are really getting it handed to them today in stox.

USA Zeus 19:04 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
San Juan Lil 14:46 GMT July 12, 2007
Hello everyone!

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT July 12, 2007
......you mean it stopped the "TREND"???
(sorry, too good to resist) lol
gl gt

____________________________________________________

Well yes- Me thinks Lil now knows the power of the amazing fulcrum- the magic of the pivotal fractal quadratic EUR/USD 1.3777 ('s) polynomial magnetometer

sorry- Far too good to resist! LMAO

Happy Day!

Como Perrie 18:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   

dc CB 18:32 GMT July 12, 2007

imo if oil goes to 90/100 Dow Jones might print 17K due the mass buying of oil shares. But sectorially will be a disaster imvho

dc CB 18:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
if you view the run in stock indexes since the March low in terms of an Elliot 5 wave rise, then W4 which has lasted since the early June high is over and the indexes are beginning a W5.

The Nas lead the charge breaking out last week. The Dow broke out today. Only the S&P remains.
This implies Dow Futures above 14000, SPU to 1600, NDU 2050. ????

Syd 18:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Improved Trade Deficit Brightens Growth Outlook
The trade deficit widened a bit in May in current dollar terms, but in real terms it was unchanged, suggesting a solid contribution to growth in the second quarter.

That addition - around one percentage point, or $29.6 billion - will boost second quarter gross domestic product growth beyond 3%. For a change, the U.S. is benefiting from the locomotive of strong overseas economic activity as real export growth outpaces still-strong gains in import.
As a result, economists upped their forecasts for second quarter GDP growth. Ian Morris, chief economist at HSBC Securities in New York, raised his estimate to 3.3%; Mike Englund, chief economist at Action economics in Boulder, Colo., boosted his estimate to 3.4%; and Ted Wieseman, economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, raised his firm's estimate to 3.9%.

Como Perrie 18:26 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Some smaller shorts just seen turning the market onto the eurusd, with stops in the 1.3810/25 area.

Patra alex 18:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
In your boat too. gt

The Netherlands Purk 18:17 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Patra: yes i did. i have no target but close at every 20.

Perrie: might be a good idea! Because i am sure that a lot of people will be interested in that.

Patra alex 18:13 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk, have you tried any eur/jpy shorts?

Como Perrie 18:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 18:09 GMT July 12, 2007

Me looking the usdcad somewhere between 1.01 to 1.02 largerly talking.

Syd 18:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
FED WATCH: Asset Bubbles A Worry, But Action Debatable
In 1928, the Fed began hiking its key discount rate of 3.5% to ward off stock market speculators and in spite negative inflation. Rates reached 6% by September 1929, but during this time stock prices kept going up, leading to the crash on Black Tuesday - Oct. 29, 1929.

The Netherlands Purk 18:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
I did not know it was Friday already? I see all tick tick to the high thingies.
I pitty it that noone listens to the pattern thing on loonie. It is down and will only be stopped by major players, but oil is doing the high thing, so no longs in loonie for me.

Como Perrie 18:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 18:04 GMT July 12, 2007

I think It will be a long and complex story yet to follow. But all points the the 1973 and if looking at the aussie presume the record high at unseen previous levels might be touched somewhere next year. But might be a managed crash, as It is form some years with plenty of anything. Nothing random just obfuscated.

Como Perrie 18:06 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
US treasury surplus below at 27 Bios, below consensus of 30/31 bios.

Deficit forecasts for the year are seen between the 150/300 billions from various forecasting services. Official expectations are for a 205 bios deficit this year. Plus war costs to be added o.c.

Makassar Alimin 18:04 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, do you think October breakout has come 3 months earlier this time?

Como Perrie 18:01 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Of note on earlier movements was US Treasury requested a TWO panel on China subsidies after talks failed.

Como Perrie 17:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
DXY hangs precariously above the Dec '04 bottom.

Makassar Alimin 17:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ding ding ding, another warning sign from usdcad, tomorrow is friday, with it very close to recent low and looks pretty comfortable, expecting another downside attack which could end the week with new low

Cambridge Zoltan 17:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 17:12 GMT July 12, 2007
Lahore FM 17:11 GMT July 12, 2007 :

Thank you both!

Como Perrie 17:43 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
168.88 minor lucky res.:)

USA Zeus 17:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 17:15 GMT July 12, 2007


Exacto! Nassim has great things to say about that- a lot of it funny akin to the more starch in your shirt (and forcast commentary) and the nicer the tie- the bigger the lie- as if a 7 figure grad from the red bricks or ivy league somehow influences the unknown future.

Better to be a board shorts and t-shirt trader making 8-10 figures. LOL

Como Perrie 17:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
EurJpy might go into 170 next days

Syd 17:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian Investors Mistakenly Buying American Real Estate
Posted by Dan Denning on Jul 12th, 2007
Two notes on Australia’s infatuation with property. First, unlike a tender first love or a smouldering romance, this housing love affair is causing financial stress. “The number of Australians under financial stress from housing costs has soared to a historic high, with more than a million households now spending at least 30 per cent of their income on loan repayments or rent,” reports Nasssim Khadem in today’s Age. “Census figures show that the number of households officially declared under “mortgage stress” has almost doubled in five years - to 547,054.”
Not content with suffering housing pain at home, Australians are cruising for a housing bruising in American commercial real estate. You’d think Aussies would be warned off by that other great re-valuing in the world, the marking down of subprime-backed bonds from the sloppy and deflating US housing bubble. But noooooo! Aussies can’t get enough American property risk.

“Spurred by the falling US dollar,” reports David Levitt in today’s Sydney Morning Herald, “surging superannuation fund inflows and the need for secure, high-yielding assets, Australian investors have widened their lead as the biggest international buyers of US real estate. Australian purchases this year amount to $US7.7 billion ($9 billion) so far, or $US2.2 billion more than in all of 2006, according to New York property researchers Real Capital Analytics.”

hk ab 17:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
bugger, show me your strength....will shoot more.

Makassar Alimin 17:17 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
usdchf has pretty clear defense area 1.20, stops are built below and should that be hit, another 150-200 pips down fast

Halifax CB 17:15 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
mm, Zeus - it's like the joke about economists & traders - market economics is largely based on random walk theory which in turn depends on "efficient markets"...
An economist and trader are wlking down the street, the trader spots a 20$ bill on the street next to the economist. Asks the economist if he would like to pick it up -& the economist replies - "No, if it was real someone would have picked it up already"....so the trader takes it...

Syd 17:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Cambridge Zoltan 17:09 sorry that AEST 8.45 Retail NZ
have to excuse me its late here

Lahore FM 17:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan,it is 2245 gmt.just a few hours to go.

Cambridge Zoltan 17:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 17:03 GMT July 12, 2007 :

I thought NZD data was due at 10:45 GMT.

USA Zeus 17:08 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:55 GMT July 12, 2007

Love it! In fact that quote summarizes how one gets an "economics" degree instead of the roll your sleeves up and crunch the numbers finance or accounting majors.

Cali mmm 17:05 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Ok thank you FM!

Lahore FM 17:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
tomm most likely.

Syd 17:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Retail Sales out 8.45gmt

Bandung AS 16:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
6 hours for NZD, any comment guys? looks like NZD will be bullish right?

Cali mmm 16:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
What timeframe do you have for that target FM?

Lahore FM 16:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
mmm,target is 2.0400.

madrid mm 16:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:47 GMT July 12, 2007

Oh absolutely....
“An economist is someone who sees something that works in practice and wonders if it would work in theory.” -- Ronald Reagan

I find it interesting though that they asked only the top people in Inc. international .....

Plus ca change, plus c et la meme chose !!!!

hk ab 16:52 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
eur/jpy keeps licking the ceiling but neither eur or dlr/jpy are willing to break the roof....

Cali mmm 16:51 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, can you pls indicate your target for GBPUSD? TKS!

prague mark 16:51 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bandung AS 16:48 GMT July 12, 2007

OR below 1.37 - LOL :)

Bandung AS 16:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
i think tomorrow euro should be above 1.38

USA Zeus 16:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Oil hit 71.92
LOL

hk ab 16:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
short bugger 168.72

hk ab 16:34 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
oil is so red now.

Makassar Alimin 16:31 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
euro should be able to hit more stops above 1.38, before correcting

hk ab 16:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
more downside to come for dlr/cad as cad/jpy clears 117 again

LKWD JJ 16:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy shouldnt take out 122.80 if this downdraft is for real.too many obstacles there and if it gets above ait will be another score for japanese housewives who are already leading 1-0.

hk ab 16:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
gold wants to bust more stops topside so that biggies can close their longs for today?

Lahore FM 16:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:09 GMT July 12, 2007
yes this stocks factor makes carry being back on more credible.let us see.trade safe!

USA Zeus 16:10 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
72.34
LOL

Ok you get it

Makassar Alimin 16:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:06 GMT July 12, 2007

thanks FM, got a feeling this whole jpy carry is back with vengeance bringing along other markets, DJI is already into new high

hk ab 16:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
typo, sorry should read 168.75

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Oil 72.56 +0.000 for the day

hk ab 16:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
they want to carck the bugger hard first by dlr/jpy then by eur but seems 167.80 is guarded. Any option there?

Lahore FM 16:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd 2.0280 and 95.stops at 40.

USA Zeus 16:06 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Oil at 72.77 after topping 73.79

Lahore FM 16:06 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Alimin closed gbpjpy short for zilch.

Lahore FM 16:05 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 16:03 GMT July 12, 2007
yes,this once it looks less bleak with support from gold rise.may just break.some pressure from dismal job data this am is what has put lid on it thus far.let us see.

LKWD JJ 16:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:06 GMT July 11, 2007
audusd rejected off 0.8639 for the umpteenth time.not good for the upside i would say.
looks like it might push higher as oil is up along with gold, but usd showing some strngth vs gbp and jpy. any thoughts?

Makassar Alimin 16:01 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
looks like gbpjpy is about to start rallying into new high again

USA Zeus 16:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
"For ours is not to reason why but to trade with the flows or die"- Zeus 2007

hk ab 15:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
here

hk ab 15:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
thanks zeus, almost initiahere.te shorts from

USA Zeus 15:53 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:03 GMT July 12, 2007

Used the magical fulcrum to close longs as it stopped EUR/USD dead in its tracks. So, been trading other pairs/crosses. Three things happen from the fulcrum points-

1. The currency gains energy as it coils from such strong megnetometer levels

Then-

2. Old trend resumes after consolidation
or
3. Trend reverses

So I'll just trade accordingly


Meanwhile oil has had a beautiful contra as it rolled over and drilled down.

USA Zeus 15:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:38 GMT July 12, 2007

On the flip side a lot can go right- Eeconomists are trained to be negative. Most did not see nor predict the massive multidecade expansion. Their predictions are as accurate as flipping a coin...."Don't be fooled by Randomness"

madrid mm 15:38 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The greatest economic boom ever-A lot could go wrong. And it may not feel like a day at the beach to most Americans. But for your average globetrotting Fortune 500 CEO, right now is about as good as it gets, says Fortune's Rik Kirkland.Fortune'

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:29 GMT, my dear lady, many thanks.
hk ab, I hope USD/CAD could close above 1.0470 this hr and 1.0515 today. My limit long order at 1.0479 was hit earlier. Also still hold short Aussie from 8636 last night. All tiny positions.

dc CB 15:36 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
from Briefing.com:

MCO Moody's on Conf Call commenting on recent subprime downgrades -Update-

MCO downgraded several hundred securities involving subprime debt on Tuesday... S&P did it as well. Co saying that investors have been painting all mortgage backed securities with the same brush... they are trying to make some finer adjustments to help investors differentiate between mortgage backed products. Lots of complicated language, but in the end what they are saying is that after reviewing the subprime area, they decided based on default/delinquency/foreclosure data that owning subprime debt was more risky than the previous ratings suggested. Saying they downgraded the CDOs with the heaviest exposure to residential mortgage backed securities but left many unchanged. Saying they believe loans that are currently delinquent should start to show losses(foreclosures) in 12-18 months. Noting CDOs are hard to define as a group because they are all different and each has its own portfolio of mortgage backed securities. Saying they will finalize the downgrades over the next few weeks. Sort of dodged a question about whether AAA CDOs could be in danger of downgrades, giving a canned response. Being very evasive... dodging an aggressively asked question about why they didn't downgrade more subprime exposed securities and do it sooner by saying they don't change ratings based on price changes and headlines, but based on long term expectations based on available data. In response to a question about why they were so wrong on CDOs originally, they basically said they did the best job they could with the data they had. They are implying they are going to look at all securities with exposure to residential MBS closely going forward. Bottom line of what they are saying is that it is very difficult to categorize CDOs because they are all different and they are doing the best they can.

hk ab 15:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Purky, will you short the bugger again?

Halifax CB 15:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:21 GMT July 12, 2007
Listening to BoC's Dodge, it sounds like business as usual as well. Think he's well schooled in the "don't-worry-be-happy" )or "what-me-worry") school of monetary policy....Good, at least ST, for CAD...

Hong Kong Ahe 15:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:14 - Yenophobes are now lost in the direction. London close is approaching. But the withdrawal of GBPUSD without signicant rebounce and hold of USDYEN distracting them to push EURYEN higher to 168.80/169.20. Will short EURYEN before London Close.

melbourne DC 15:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hmm ... how should an censored client feel abt such recommendation ??
given the stats, there is 76% chance he is short eursud. and his broker is asking everyone to go against his posn.
moreover, if his retail client is aggressively selling eurusd, that's in part b;ocs his tech analysts have been advising 1.38 topping. hmmm ...

hk ab 15:25 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//all depends on cad/jpy thinkit will follow the e/j path and will decide the next direction till 118 is reached. HOwever, it seems that the 122.50 is capped by sth now.
my 123 target may not be reachable in this round.

melbourne DC 15:24 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
censored Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)
By Antonio J F Sousa, Thursday, July 12, 2007

§ EURUSD – Retail is aggressively selling the euro
§ GBPUSD – Long to short ratio is -2.22 as 69 percent of retail
traders are short
§ USDJPY – Traders are long and buying more
§ USDCHF – Positions Outstanding Rise By 20.7 Percent
§ USDCAD – Nearly 80 percent of traders are long USDCAD


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -3.21 as nearly 76% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -3.35 as 77% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 18.8% weaker since last week. Short
positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 10.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.6% stronger than yesterday and 1.9% above its monthly average. In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days.

The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

HK Kevin 15:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:18 GMT, I just back from a late dinner. USD/CAD under 1.1070 is not good for long.

bbsapul 15:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
has cable reached its all time high?

hk ab 15:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
we have the NFP tomorrwo

hk ab 15:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//cad/jpy will be the next one.

Syd 15:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Fukui: Pieces Starting To Fall Into Place For Rate Hike

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Thursday that the economy is likely to remain on a sustained growth track while prices show stable movement, indicating that conditions necessary for an interest rate hike are starting to take shape.

HK Kevin 15:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:50 GMT, so far only EUR/JPY made a marginal new high today. Any observation from you on the carry trades?

Como Perrie 15:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
There's a high likelihood tomorrow we see another usd low. Maybe no big thing, but risk is enough clear.

hk ab 15:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
zeus, did you short eur @1.3777 to prove the fulcurm?

Hong Kong Ahe 14:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD has formed double top and leads the correction. GLGT.

hk ab 14:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
seems operators have enough tolerance on e/j upside....

San Juan Lil 14:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone!

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT July 12, 2007
......you mean it stopped the "TREND"???
(sorry, too good to resist) lol
gl gt

PAR 14:44 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
While Fukui and BOJ are worried about the Us subprime market the Dow makes new highs and the japanese economy keeps collapsing Zimbabwe style . Abe and Fukui are the Mugabes of the japanese economy .

Richland QC Mailman 14:39 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bought a couple of usd/cad 1.0471 earlier, stop 1.0440, target 1.0515.

Como Perrie 14:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Who says chaos is just a short term tool, has missed part of It



Como Perrie 15:43 GMT July 4, 2007
London NYAM 15:33 GMT July 4, 2007

am now currently playing with some chaos systems...and was exactly wathching usdchf... all appears the chaos model which is targeting 1.2040/50 has been deleyed into august or so for Its natural completion awaited in June from this chaotical enviroment am now observing. (as there to be sort of interventinism behind of sort - maybe just the Bear Stearns case imvho)

The Netherlands Purk 14:34 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Well leaving the loonie alone thing was the best to do since NN does not watch it so clearly anymore, but he will come back..

Noticing that e/j was at 16660 yesterday, that is err 200 pips...
Time to go down....

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The power of the pivotal fulcrum, the magical strange attractor fractal 1.3777 stopped EUR/USD dead in its tracks.

LOL

Como Perrie 14:31 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
A good reason why not to try longing the usdcad unless the trend is finished.

http://www.ft. com/cms/s/ df06ca50- 2f29-11dc- b9b7-0000779fd2a c.html

melbourne DC 14:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
london av 14:18 GMT July 12, 2007
no worries. i guess the rbnz guys now have to pay a visit to these funds mgr also to take it easy on their ccy :))

Como Perrie 14:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
So far looks yet slumber time.

Como Perrie 14:24 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:22 GMT July 12, 2007

:)) me like tennis wee, micro macro and ace

GVI john 14:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
GVI Forex Survey analysis courtesy Cumino...
Click to View

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Watching the pips add up up up is like watching a 6 yr old play their favorite game on Nintendo wii>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

LOL

Como Perrie 14:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
There's a big likelihood for a crash somewhere in autumn. But for the time being the plunge time might yet manage some, hence against the mass of flows out of funds is diminishing strongly It's power.

melbourne DC 14:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
nuts .. of course not .. unless something spectacular happens in gbpusd :)) apologies.

london av 14:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
thanks DC.

Como Perrie 14:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Big digital long term chotical levels at risk of further new shapes developing. Usd faith at big risk next months imvho. Plus the tops we dealing with are falling back into the mid 70s Usd negative levels. More Usd negativity to come if oil goes over 85

melbourne DC 14:17 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
this week the days high in the europe/usd made next 2 hours .. so dunno if this pattern repeat itself. :))

USA Zeus 14:16 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Gold contracts are trying to reach 677.70 (near topside of my weekly increase estimate)

delray beach FL 14:16 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
any views on dollar yen as it has repeatedly bounced of the 122.55 level? views appreciated

melbourne DC 14:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
london av 14:07 GMT July 12, 2007

this explanation as good as any. note the gold strength also.

14:00 NZD/USD: USD Diversification Flows Continue to Support Kiwi San Francisco, Jul 12. NZD/USD trades at 0.7823/28 this morning, still firm but stalling under the overnight spike highs of 0.7841. The theme of USD diversification from sovereign wealth funds continues to be a key supportive factor for the NZD with those entities reported as buyers of both AUD and NZD this week as these investors shift their portfolios. Some caution over risk aversion continues to temper NZD/USD gains with Asian and US names among sellers on rallies overnight. But, similar to the market"s lack of sustained reaction to the weak AUD jobs data, a softer NZ PMI release last night was largely ignored by the market with buying still firm on dips. NZ PMI for June fell to 50.4 from 55.6 and the lowest since Jan 2006 but remains barely above the key 50.0 level which shows manufacturing is still expanding.
Sellers remain ahead of 0.7850 with more tipped at 0.7870/80. Buyers remain on dips towards 0.7800. [email protected] /rd

hk ab 14:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad is not at the right time yet since 116.78 is broken

USA Zeus 14:10 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP and EUR top pickers got crushed last few sessions.
Doesn't seem so stoppy now- more like teeter totter smooth as butter price transitions.

london av 14:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
any reasons why kiwi and aussie still holding on against usd whilst euro and GBP falling

melbourne DC 13:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
possible scenerio .. a number of wave counters looking for reversal from 1.38, can gbp lead it?
but if only s.t specs follow that play, then setup for another burst up. perhaps gold hindering the usd turning.

USA Zeus 13:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:49 GMT July 6, 2007
Oil $2+ next week and gold $10 or $20+


Come on baby- come on
LOL

melbourne DC 13:43 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
market nowadays reduced to machines vs chuckling traders.

melbourne DC 13:40 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
EURO-DOLLAR: Retracement low was $1.3757 a trader reports, adding that
the euro then rebounded to $1.3780 area. Trader chuckles too that "this
was the most muted reaction to a trade report" that he has ever seen.
>>> With the deficit coming in bang on the forecasts of $60 bn, there were
no algorithmically generated trades triggered by the data <<< , the trader
chuckles, leaving everyone just staring at the machines!


Lahore FM 13:36 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
closed gbpjpy short for nothing.

Como Perrie 13:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Magic doubles magic per 111 777 = 888

hk ab 13:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
for dlr/cad longers, please watch cad/jpy 116.78

madrid mm 13:27 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 10:44 GMT July 12, 2007

lol

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:07 GMT July 12, 2007

Thanks, wish you all the best. GL.


hk ab 13:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
the weakness of gbp and the weakness of dlr/chf seems pretelling sth for tomorrow.

hk ab 13:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
FM//I may join you if it stablize above 1.0480

stop will be 1.0432

Lahore FM 13:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
yes AB.

hk ab 13:16 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
FM// are you still holdng your dlrcad long?

hk ab 13:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
who wants to long some dlr/cad at 1.0440?

Hong Kong Ahe 13:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:02 GMT July 12, 2007 - Awesome. GT.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:06 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
closed all at 61 +19pips total pips= +30 GL all

dc CB 13:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
38 billion at .05%.................who cares about prices??? just sell more Yen, it's free money. lol

dc CB 13:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Today's hot hot hot Lotto ticket:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
.............Anthony Conroy, head trader at BNY Brokerage Inc. in New York. ``It seems like every day you come in and there's another buyout. Those things are certainly helping the market.''

..........................Alcoa rose $2.26 to $44.69 after Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, agreed to buy Alcan Inc. Rio will pay $101 for each Alcan share, a 13 percent premium to yesterday's closing price of $89.60, the London-based company said today in a statement. The offer is 33 percent higher than Alcoa's bid of $76 a share.

BHP Billiton Ltd. will attempt to buy Alcoa ''in a relatively short space of time'' if Alcoa fails to buy Alcan, said John Meyer, a director of mining-equity sales at Numis Securities in London. (Bloomberg)

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 12:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
coverd 1/2 eur short here at 69 +11pips stop now at 1.3805+ GL

USA Zeus 12:56 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:48 GMT July 11, 2007
Oil wants to rip above 73

LOL

prague mark 12:52 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USDPY to 120.22 - here wego - LOL

dc CB 12:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Group may borrow as much as $38 billion, the second-biggest loan in Europe, to finance the acquisition of aluminum producer Alcan Inc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aCuSC9kKxuRA&refer=canada

dc CB 12:43 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
May 2007
Canadian merchandise imports and exports declined in May for the second consecutive month after both reached record levels in March. The nation's trade balance with the world remained relatively unchanged at $5.9 billion, as imports and exports fell by nearly the same value.

New Housing Price Index
New housing prices in Canada increased at their slowest pace in just over a year in May.
On a monthly basis, new housing prices were up 1.1% from April.

(statcan)

Bandung AS 12:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
how about USD/CAD? isn't surprise for cad, trade balance higher??

NYC 12:37 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bandung. Trade deficit was as expected and wekkly jobless claims were lower than forecast

Bandung AS 12:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
bad data for USD but why reaction is very few??

Ny NY 12:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
June 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which
shows a total of 164,644 foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported during the month, down 7 percent from the previous month but still up 87 percent from June 2006.

dc CB 12:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
US foreclosures rise 87% y/y in June. RealtyTrac

Brisbane Flip 11:57 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Anatole Kaletsky has written the same negative crap about for eons. I am surprised he still hs a job. I guess like a broken clock one day he will appear right because an econoic crisis will come along and he can attribuite it all to the Euro.

Brisbane Flip 11:38 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The Germans understand that to stimulate the economy one has to encourage investment. Asian currencies (bar one obvious) have all markedly appreciated as growth has powered along. The Japanese are still using high school economic theories while the globalization and democratization of capital has meant one needs to follow the cash flow. Why do you think the Americans spout the "strong dollar policy" for the past ten years. They really mean "we welcome foreign capital" policy. The Japanese on the other hand export liquidity and wonder why they have no growth. Price deflation is the symptom not the cause of their ills.

Como Perrie 11:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Ok flat ahead of ..and a brunch time b pause

Como Perrie 11:26 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 11:23 GMT July 12, 2007

I guess the writer of such does not understand economics. German have a monetaristic school. US is trying to develop a neo school from classic liberal concepts from past decades. Japan has a mix of both etc. etc.

Sydney ACC 11:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
European policymakers, by contrast, seem to have no idea of how currency markets operate. In contrast with Americans and Asians, German politicians in particular still see a “hard currency” as a virility symbol – not as a threat to economic performance or an indicator that interest rates are probably too high.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article2062059.ece

Como Perrie 11:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ref the US trade balance do suspect a higher reading due oil primarily. Maybe in the range of the 63/64 bios, but still contained if there. Over 66/67 then gets bit danger for the buck. Adding onto this late US the Federal Budget for June which is forecaste 5 billions higher and summarizing the whole into more debt to be sold and the current poorer state of central banks and hedge funds buyers will be interesting to follow - hence unforecastable at current. Might influence in a strange manner the combo box of bond/stocks and consequently the dollar and commodities. But do suspect a lower growth in the next quarters, even if contrary to the political will to be maybe the best thing to stabilize global marekts some.

Lahore FM 11:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
so no change boj introduces no major change in fx.

Como Perrie 11:03 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Looks different for former commonwealth currencies in general

Como Perrie 11:02 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
btw It smells as of current this eurusd has to run into 1.3850 or so

Como Perrie 10:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Ciao DC

ore 14.30 Can trade balance plus imports and exports details. Previous trade surplus was 5.8bios expected 5.5

ore 14.30 Can new housing price index - previous 0.8pct expected 0.5 pct

ore 16.30 Can monetary policy report.

GVI john 10:56 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
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Como Perrie 10:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
For usdindexers trade balance should stay withing 61/59 bios...plus watch for any previous revision as the stats office suffering from a turbulence of errors.

Napoli DC 10:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Perrie
scusa, trade balance and what else?
tia

Como Perrie 10:54 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
For carrieaters holding above of 121.50 very safe.

Como Perrie 10:52 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bit doggy the whole.

For caddites series of important datas upcoming next hours.

Rivonia PipPirate 10:44 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:43 GMT July 12, 2007
Rio Tinto Bids $38.1 Billion for Alcan,
How many ¥ is that ? Or Zimbabwean Dollar (ZWD) ?

ZWD 15 Quadrillion and counting.......LOL

Como Perrie 10:25 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Japan Should Diversify Reserves,
Prime Minister's Adviser Says

By Shigeki Nozawa
Bloomberg News Service
Wednesday, July 11, 2007

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at1OmRjIJsKU&refer=h...

TOKYO -- Japan, the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, should invest $700 billion of its currency reserves in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and corporate bonds, said Takatoshi Ito, an adviser to the prime minister.

Syd 09:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Telegraph: Borrowers 'at breaking point over debts'
Ian Perry, spokesman for Rics said: "House prices have finally started to cool significantly for the first time since the recent mini boom in the housing market got under way in 2006. "Interest rates hikes have begun to affect the psychology of the market with potential new buyers starting to think twice before buying a home. "The July rate increase may not mark the peak of the current interest rate cycle and earlier rate rises have yet to fully filter through. "A softer landing for the housing market is in store as we move into the Autumn." RICS is basically saying we ll have a crash in the Autumn... in their book "softer" means harder
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/12/ndebt112.xml

Como Perrie 09:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
In general the Usd bodes very badly as to have to crash or some, but BIG SUSPECT goes to the USDJPY as if the dollar would have to collapse the first to move heavy into an impressive downtrend would be the UsdJpy which is not.

london tv 09:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
any comments on kiwi at 7730 levels? was thinking quick short with stops above 7870

Syd 08:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Risk Slowdown In UK Econ Will Be Very Sharp, Painful - BCC
.UK. firms are very concerned about the possibility of continued monetary tightening, the BCC said.

"The expected slowdown in U.K. economic activity may commence later than previously envisaged, but there is a distinct risk that the slowdown would be very sharp and painful," Kern said.

Kaunas DP 08:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
IF we have 1.38 option -it will be taken out with several pips above and then USD MIGHT turn on some strenth - IMHO

Sydney ACC 08:08 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BHP and Rio have been buying their respective shares on the London exchange for several weeks. Buying outsourced to a third party has been done on a daily occurrence. Buying has generally been in the order of 300k/500k of shares each day.
Rio has about 100 million of sterling based treasury shares on hold based on current market price that is GBP 4 billion.
While nothing is certain, I would presume these shares might be sold and the proceeds used to pay Alcan for which is an all cash bid of USD 101 per share.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:02 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ok added more at 90. stop now at 1.3810. GL

Syd 07:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Fukui Remarks In Line With August Hike View -MUFJ

Lahore FM 07:56 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
stops for usdcad long removed.entered a new one at 1.0508.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hearing 1.3800 option defense. GL

Como Perrie 07:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
By James Mackintosh
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, July 11, 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e839b922-2fdb-11dc-a68f-0000779fd2ac.html

An Australian hedge fund manager with almost $1 billion in junk-rated loans and troubled structured credits warned investors on Wednesday that it could restrict withdrawals to ensure its survival as it reported losses of 14 percent in one fund in June.

madrid mm 07:43 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Bids $38.1 Billion for Alcan, Trumps Alcoa (Update2)
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- largest mining company, agreed to buy aluminum producer Alcan Inc. for $38.1 billion, trumping Alcoa Inc.'s $27.7 billion hostile bid.

$10.4 billion more ?!?!?!? Woaaaa They must be desperate !!!!

How many ¥ is that ? Or Zimbabwean Dollar (ZWD) ?

8+-)

prague mark 07:41 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
so when these f u c k i n g eur/usd 3550 players will start to take profits

Gen dk 07:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 07:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.3596 - (1.3588) - 1.3596 - 1.3658* - "1.3698" - "1.3855*"

Upside Targeting Points : 1.3785 and 1.3788

Downside Targeting Points : 1.3658 and 1.3698 

Remarks : The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is able to trade below 1.3658.

Syd 07:28 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto (RTP) looks to be paying top dollar for Alcan (AL), says a trader. Rio Tinto will shell out a massive $38B, or $101 a share for Alcan. "They seem to be paying a lot for the privilege. Alcan was trading down in the $50's before all this kicked off, that's an almost 80% premium to what investors previously thought the company was worth," he adds.

Syd 07:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Market rates imply 66% chance BOJ will raise overnight call rate to 0.75% from 0.50% at its August 23 meeting, after standing pat today, according to survey by Credit Suisse

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Nice move GBPYEN......

Sell euro here add more at 90/95 with stop above 1.3810. GL all.

Bodrum OEE 07:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain

Thank you Bahrain 1. I am well. Kind regards

Sydney zigen 07:05 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd now ready to rally and test yesterday's hi of 2.0362

Sydney ACC 06:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto and Alcan announce merger.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 06:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 06:18 GMT July 12, 2007

Hi OEE.....
How r u .....hope all fine with you and hope the market treating you well. :-)
Good luck to you and wish you a great day.

The Netherlands Purk 06:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Right here is it today: Use it as notes to compare with yours:
Bugger: downside: 16745 to watch (same as yesterday when 16745 had to be passed for uppy). Upside there is 16850.
Bugger came from a long way (16653) so if you want to short wait and wait some more and keep an eye on the range.

Bodrum OEE 06:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN

Hello there Bahrain 1. All best.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 06:14 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds......
Sell GBPYEN on rallies......
Good luck all.

madrid mm 06:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BoJ votes to keep monetary policy unchanged by majority vote of 8-1, with BOJ Hawk Atsushi Mizuno dissenting (voted for hike).

Focus on BoJ Toshihiko Fukui news conference from 0630GMT.

NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says NZ is moving to reduce pressure on the economy, which is continuing to grow unsustainably fast. A looser fiscal policy would certainly see RBNZ hiking rates.

Australia Treasurer Peter Costello says inflation remains constrained. Stronger AUD making it tough for exporters (after AUD hit fresh 18-year highs of 0.8641 in NY, high since Feb 1989)

Australia employment for June disappoints with only 2.5K rise, vs expectation of +13.5K. Full time jobs falling -34,300. Unemployment rate edges up to 4.3% from 4.2%.

NHK: Campaigning officially began on Thursday for Japan's 21st Upper House election to be held on July. This time, 377 candidates have been nominated for 121 seats.

UK RICS house price balance +10.6 in 3 months to June, from revised +22.5 in May, to its lowest level since January 2006.

Times Anatole Kaletsky article: ECB seems determined to keep raising interest rates, thereby exacerbating the damage done by the euro's excessive strength. Americans, meanwhile, will enjoy the benefits of a super-cheap currency. There is only one leading European politician, Pres Nicolas Sarkozy who seems to understand the dangers of an overstrong euro.

FT: Alcan and Rio Tinto were on Wednesday night in the final stages of negotiating a friendly deal worth more than $30bn.

Focus of the day is the widely awaited BoJ decision, which came in at 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, with BoJ Hawk Atsushi Mizuno seen raising calls for a rate hike, focus now on BoJ Fukui conference as he may sound more hawkish given the 1 call for BoJ rate hikes.

Interesting moves in USD/JPY after the decision, with USD/JPY edging up on no change decision to 122.25, then down after decision show 1 member (Mizuno) voting for a hike, and then up again to 122.41 as market decides that 8-1 is still a big majority voting for no rate hike and rates are likely to stay for a while.

EUR/JPY mirrored USD/JPY moves, finally hitting 168.35 hit 168.35 from 168.20. Focus on any fresh JPY carry trades, after the strong recovering in Cross/JPY.

Some focus on news that Thailand Finmin has called for urgent meeting at 2pm Bangkok, or 0700GMT - for any measures on THB again after recent moves - eye any changes on capital controls.

AUD/USD dipped to day lows of 0.8605 from 0.8630 after the smaller than expected Aus jobs rise of only 2.5K, while AUD/NZD dipped to 1.1030, AUD/JPY lower, but downside still supported on real money demand.

Talks of good bids around 0.86 handle, with real money demand, and Japanese AUD/JPY buying interest.

EUR at 1.3750, off its all time highs of 1.3785 seen yesterday, but still buy on dips interest, while Cable dipped a touch after UK RICS data, offers coming in at 2.0350, bids at 2.03, market a touch long, could dip.

Nikkei shares higher, +59pts or 0.33% at 18,108. JGBs lower on UST losses, BoJ 8-1 vote, 10-yr yield +0.035% 1.910%. August crude oil off lows in Asia after falling on bigger than expected US gasoline stocks buildup, $72.63, +$0.07.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.16/122.41, EUR/USD 1.3744/1.3763, GBP/USD 2.0308/2.0339, USD/CHF 1.2043/1.2058, AUD/USD 0.8605/0.8637, NZD/USD 0.7805/0.7876.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USD (DX, NYBOT): As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 80.53 - 82.12. In the last New York session USD Index was able to settle at 50.53. The low and the high was 80.44 and 80.64 respectively. 80.53 is a super magnet in my system and it is reasonable to believe that the market is able to find enough support around this significant level.

madrid mm 06:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

melbourne DC 06:01 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:53 GMT July 12, 2007
thanks :)) all the best.

Syd 06:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Spain caught in credit squeeze

Spanish companies face much tougher credit conditions as a result of a dramatic change in perceptions of country risk, brought on by fear that Spain’s house price bubble is about to burst.Spanish companies face much tougher credit conditions as a result of a dramatic change in perceptions of country risk, brought on by fear that Spain’s house price bubble is about to burst.

According to rating agency Standard & Poor’s, Spanish corporate debt is at an historic high point, totalling 106 per cent of gross domestic product last year compared with a Eurozone average of 70 per cent


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/7cb9865c-2e4e-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 05:53 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
DC Little more here
Australian hedge fund warns about withdrawals
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e839b922-2fdb-11dc-a68f-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=d355f29c-d238-11db-a7c0-000b5df10621.html

melbourne DC 05:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:47 GMT July 12, 2007
0350 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. subprime jitters have widened Australian spreads in recent months despite country's miniscule subprime mortgage exposure. Peter Jolly, head of research at NAB, says safe path ahead is to say widening of semi, swap spreads could run some more and wait for narrowing before getting involved; indeed, slow burning subprime woes argue for caution. But when no-one wants to touch something it is not necessarily a bad time to start going other way, particularly if fundamentals still strong; Jolly says widening overdone so be short subprime mortgages and high yield corporate credit, but time looks right to get involved with high rated and semi spreads.(JEG)

Syd 05:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australia Hedge Fund Warns About Withdrawals - Report


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--An Australian hedge fund manager with A$1 billion in structured credits and junk-rated loans has warned investors it could restrict withdrawals to ensure its survival after it reported losses of 14% in one fund in June, The Financial Times reports.

Basis Capital said in a letter to investors it had been hit by "indiscriminate" repricing of "otherwise fundamentally sound collateral" amid the crisis in subprime home loans in the U.S., according to the report.

Executives from Basis Capital weren't immediately available for comment on the report

Bodrum OEE 05:29 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 04:36 GMT July 12, 2007

I agree.

The possibility of Bank of Japan hiking this time was low.

Meanwhile (in case no one did it on record) I propose to call this part or phase of the balloon "Japanese Housewife Bubble".

In addition without meaning offence (I do not) one could try to illuminate conditions of the period we experience in graphic terms: "Bubbly Japanese Housewives" to define wishful present and "Busty Japanese Housewives" in relation to the limits of such expansion in hope

Good day to you all


Makassar Alimin 05:13 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:50 GMT July 12, 2007

ab, euro's 30 pips range before 1.40 what do you say?

Syd 05:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BOJ still expected to hike rates in August, even though there was only one dissenting vote at today's on-hold decision amid talk that more board members would vote against standing pat, says Japan brokerage analyst; says more dissenting votes would have better reinforced expectations for August hike, but split vote could nevertheless still be signal of August move

hk ab 04:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//Do you think dlr/cad has bottomed out?

hk ab 04:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
not far away from oilman's 170 target.

hk ab 04:49 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
will only short dlr/jpy above 123, probably.

USA BAY 04:49 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Keeps Rates Unchanged By 8-1 Vote

hk ab 04:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, + they can even protect themselves with option.....

Makassar Alimin 04:46 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:39 GMT July 12, 2007

even if they raise rate, how far can japan's economy cope with it? 2% max perhaps? that's still leaving carry in good position....unless everywhere else start cutting then again at that time japan won't be the only one raising...so all in all nice carry trades are still the game

hk ab 04:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Fuikui's speech seems hauting all the players, no matter bears or bulls.

hk ab 04:39 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
what's more was seem many people "expected" a 0.25 an hour ago....

hk ab 04:38 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
a difference of almost 7% would take a long long time compensate the rate difference loss....

Toronto MRC 04:36 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BOJ will raise by .25 next meeting, but dont under estimate the impact on the carry trade.

hk ab 04:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
we need 168.50 clear to add fuel.

hk ab 04:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
need some fuel for censored rocket to 123.

hk ab 04:21 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
where's nzd/jpy now?

Syd 04:13 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
China's forex regulator says it'll prevent foreign funds from flowing illegally into country via trade channels, highlighting possible forex policy dilemma: faster CNY rise could help prevent wider trade surplus, but could also fuel more hot money inflows. Remarks follow June trade surplus ballooning to monthly record high of US$26.91 billion and Beijing's end-June forex reserves rising to US$1.333 trillion. Comments, latest in recent months, underscore difficulties Beijing faces in curbing illegal inflows as local stock market soars, foreign investors speculate on further appreciation of yuan, but efficacy of efforts remain uncertain given difficulty of verifying export, import orders.

Bodrum OEE 04:10 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Japanese politicians and their extensions in technocracy have cornered themselves in such a situation that it warrants a bust in politics, society and economy. It will be much more powerful than what it should be. Global too. Charlatans.

hk ab 04:10 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Indeed, the unwinding was just in time to give good levels for the censored housewives.

hk ab 04:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
guess those banks PR need to hurry to convey the new carry "opportunity" to their customers in the globe soon.

hk ab 04:01 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
it proved that all politicians are good liars....

Syd 04:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged Thursday, but the first split vote by policy makers in five months suggests a more hawkish shift that may signal a rate hike soon.

The 8-to-1 vote will bolster market expectations that the BOJ will raise its key rate from 0.50% as early as its next meeting in August.

The last time the board's vote wasn't unanimous was in February, when the group decided by an eight-to-one vote to lift the unsecured overnight call rate target to 0.50% from 0.25%.

Board member Atsushi Mizuno was against keeping policy steady, a statement released by the central bank showed.

Market players will now focus on a news conference by Gov. Toshihiko Fukui starting 0630 GMT for any clues on when the BOJ might go ahead with a rate hike.

hk ab 03:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
I think statement is more important.

hk ab 03:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
out yet?

Syd 03:58 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Board Votes 8-1 To Leave Policy Unchanged

hk ab 03:30 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
a fast pull back on dlr/jpy followed by a more vigorous spike to the 123 destination.

Then, mkt will say, even hiking 50 bps, jpy rate is still too "low". And excuses are everywhere to resume carry.

hk ab 03:20 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
wonder if bc can kindly offer his view on dlr index 80 line. should we chase and continue or reverse there?

Halifax CB 03:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
FM I have anywhere from now through the next 2.5 hrs; they seem pretty erratic. Note though that the one announced latest in the day was the one with the hike.
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm

hk ab 03:19 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
dlr cad might test 1.0507.

Lahore FM 03:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:12 GMT July 12, 2007
thanx!

hk ab 03:17 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
watch cad

Syd 03:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:00 6a.m GMT GT

Lahore FM 03:00 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd,what time gmt roughly is the boj expected to make statement on interest rates and so on?between 6 and 7?

Hong Kong Qindex 02:41 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3723. The market is now working on the barrier at 1.3723 // 1.3783 (1.3723 - 1.3743 - 1.3773).

hk ab 02:33 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
zeus, can you comment on short eur 1.3777 and then 2nd prep. on 1.3888?

USA Zeus 02:31 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Looking at EUR/USD going straight up and hitting the 1.3777('s) and remembering last year's major 1.2777('s) both times the strange attractor forced a stop and stall pattern- truly amazing.

Lahore FM 02:25 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:11 GMT July 12, 2007
agree with some demand getting soaked up.if it does not make any headway as in brushing off bad data,we are headed lower with jpy pressuring it all along.

USA Zeus 02:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:12 GMT July 12, 2007

Syd- Thx...Very interesting
-Z-

hk ab 02:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
kiwi looks a bit tiring here.

hk ab 02:22 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
with dlr/cad breaks 1.0550 and candle daily chart, we may see some downside probes before rebounce.

Bandung AS 02:18 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ok, AUD done here. let's fundamentalis trader wait till tomorrow for USD trade balance :)

Syd 02:15 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Jobs,Other Data Mean N/T Hike Unlikely-Dresdner Kleinwort Beijing's Adrian Foster

Syd 02:12 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Electricity generated by Japan's 10 regional power utilities in June rose 2.2% on year to 79.09 billion kilowatt-hours due to strong industrial demand, the Federation of Electric Power Companies said Thursday.

The utilities used 670,019 kiloliters of crude oil in the month, up from 372,558 kiloliters a year ago, the federation said.

The jump in oil consumption from a year ago was due to a lower operating rate at Japan's nuclear power plants.

Sydney ACC 02:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 02:09 GMT July 12, 2007
Bandung AS 02:07 GMT July 12, 2007
It's soaked up a lost of selling since the data was relased, there will be a lot of bids at around 0.8595 area as well.

Syd 02:10 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:50 can see NZ living up to its name as a bad risk if they get more of the data we had today , only the brave or crazy would be sitting long Kiwi dollar or have some trusted stops , some trading houses dont even honour them when the market hits the fan .

Lahore FM 02:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bandung AS 02:07 GMT July 12, 2007
yes it can be said.will have to see how audjpy and jpy play hereon.

Bandung AS 02:07 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD now struggle to go down right?

Lahore FM 02:06 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ACC,the chart that i have up on kiwi needs the slightest push and if we get 0.7770 or lower post boj then 0.7600 is right next door.

Syd 02:05 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:53 GMT you forget they are born with gambling chips in their hands :-))

Sydney ACC 02:02 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore you looking for 0.7740 or thereabouts on the Kiwi?

Lahore FM 01:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ACC,Jpy is looking for a weak moment on the commodity currs.nzd and aud data can kick in the 2nd tape.

Sydney ACC 01:59 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 01:55 GMT July 12, 2007
Let's see if you can kick a goal like you did last time. Great combination of a weaker Kiwi and stronger JPY came together like an eclipse.
Best of luck!

Lahore FM 01:55 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
ACC,had intiated fresh shorts on nzdjpy at 95.71.a few hours back looking for 94.40.they have started working okay.let us see what trick boj has up its sleeve though.

USA Zeus 01:53 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Interesting times we live in. Even the housewives beat the $#%! out of the pros.

Sydney ACC 01:50 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:47 GMT July 12, 2007
Lowest trade post release is 0.8605. There has been a great deal of volume sold and it seems for the moment the market is soaking it up.
Be interesting to see how it goes over the next hour or so but looks like the demand is sufficient to keep it up above the lows.

Syd 01:48 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
As widely expected, Bank of Korea hikes call rate target 25 bps to 4.75% to curb liquidity as stronger economic growth threatens to stoke inflation later in year; BOK also hikes rate on aggregate credit ceiling by 25 bps to 3.00%; move follows BOK, finance ministry each revising up economic growth forecasts for this year.

Syd 01:47 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Employment in Australia grew a less than expected 2,500 in June, with full-time jobs plunging 34,300.

Syd 01:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bandung AS 01:36 think that depends on the sushi housewives view of the numbers

Bandung AS 01:36 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
can it touch support at 0,8500??

Syd 01:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Cant see rate going up in Aus or kiwiland anytime soon despite what all the analist say

Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:32 GMT July 12, 2007
Full-time employment down 34,300 and particitpation rate 64.9% versus expected 65%.

Syd 01:34 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian Full-Time Employment -34,300

Lahore FM 01:34 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Aud jobless rate 4.3 percent as against 4.2 percent expected.

Syd 01:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian Jun Employment +2,500; Consensus +15,000

Australian Jun Unemployment Rate 4.3%; Consensus 4.3%

Lahore FM 01:32 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
aud fell out of bed.wowow.

Syd 01:27 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:23 thats the problem its not normal trading with the Japanese impossible to trade it unless you run with it , but could come unstuck too just needs the nod from BOJ

Sydney ACC 01:23 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:11 GMT July 12, 2007
All the data emanating from NZ indicates that the economy is turning. Yesterdays REINZ data showed the average price of a NZ home dropped by NZD 2,500 or 0.7%.
Cullen highlighted the steps the Government is taking which will reduce demand which I do not believe anyone has focused on yet:
Firstly, taking into account contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, the Government was removing demand from the economy.

Secondly, the expansion of KiwiSaver was increasing household saving and would take pressure off monetary policy.

Thirdly, steps had been taken to increase the so-called speed limit of the economy -- the speed at which the economy could sustainably grow without building up unsustainable pressure.

I am surprised Kiwi rallied as high as it did but I note it ia back to the 0.7800/20 area where it was stuck for about a week before thgis week's drop.

All in all the irrational exuberance of the Japanese for the antipodean currencies shows no letting up.

Syd 01:11 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:09 yes it was , not sure if they will count it though , but the NZ numbers were as bad , they will push the economy into recession if they hike further, need to come up with something quick in my view, it the index falls below 50 they are [email protected]&!!..... good and proper

Sydney ACC 01:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:04 GMT July 11, 2007
That RICS figure was a lor lower than the RBS forecast oif 20.0.

detroit 01:09 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Life sucks. I lost all my lifes savings in this censored market. It happened so fast. I want to kill myself.

Syd 01:01 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian consumer inflationary expectations fell to a median of 3.5% in July from 3.8% in June, according to a survey by the Melbourne Institute published Thursday.

Expectations have been falling since May, when consumers expected an inflation rate of 4.4%, it said.

The proportion of survey respondents expecting annual inflation to fall within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2% to 3% declined to 15.9% in July from 17.4% in June.

Philadelphia Caba 00:56 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:45 GMT
there's scope to overcome 1.4000 in current market condition..imo

hk ab 00:45 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus//Maybe the Chinese likes to see 1.3888888888888 first....

dc CB 00:42 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
from my POV: US Stox
This morning futures were down hard before the opening on the idea that the Chrysler deal with Cerberus would not go down because financing could not be found. The BIG FEAR: Credit tightening would end all the Private Equity Deals. It wouldn't be just the Tax Questions about Cap gains VS Earned Income ( 15% v 35%).

Later on the rally from the Do or Die levels (1510 cash SnP) was almost scuttled when JPM said that the deal that a couple of its "funds" had made to buy SLM ( the Student Loan company) and take it private might not go through because of legislation that currently before Congress that would change the interest rates student's paid for loans ( not clear on the specifics, but the point is). The bill passed, but, BUSH announced that he would Veto the bill. STOX rallied into the close, forcing shorts to cover. Paulson....Bush.....Wall Street's Men in the Oval.

What this day reveals is that it is the Private Equity Deal that is fueling Stox.....got to have that lotto ticket for the next take over.....beyond that ...no substance to the rally.

Syd 00:39 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 00:15 GMT agree he has a fight on his hands the the Germans but maybe its going to be a good show to watch as you say not sure if he is up to it though , time will tell :-)))

Bon Air VA Dennis 00:15 GMT July 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:17 GMT

Syd, I have been following very closely the developing "food fight" which is brewing between FRA and GER talking heads/heads of state re: the disparities in economic vibrancy in GER vs the rest of the EU.

It bears watching in the months ahead as Sarkoszy is, in my mind, very much like GWB here in the states: decidedly "pig-headed" about his goals/wants and of course we all know how flexible and accomodating German's are insofar as there other EU partners are concerned. Could be great sport ahead, imho.

 




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