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Forex Forum Archive for 07/13/2007

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San Juan Lil 23:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   

Hi Zeus,

Fortunately in order to read the market, I can rely on my very own proprietary Quantum Levels (based on simple mathematics) which give me a price where I can safely enter and exit a trade so don´t need to pay much attention to funnymentals, strange attractors, trends, or lack of them, etc., etc. Actually, you will have a hard time convincing me to enter a trade if your entry doesn´t correspond to my level, as is the case with 1.3777.

What is the Direction of the Next tradeable movement (35-50 pips or more) is the question every forum member wants answered, stop and target.

For example, what do you do at 1.3777, buy or sell?

TIA

USA Zeus 22:07 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:04 GMT July 12, 2007
San Juan Lil 14:46 GMT July 12, 2007
Hello everyone!

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT July 12, 2007
......you mean it stopped the "TREND"???
(sorry, too good to resist) lol
gl gt

____________________________________________________

Well yes- Me thinks Lil now knows the power of the amazing fulcrum- the magic of the pivotal fractal quadratic EUR/USD 1.3777 ('s) polynomial magnetometer

sorry- Far too good to resist! LMAO

Happy Day!
____________________________________________________

Have a great W/E Lil!

Philadelphia Caba 21:00 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
short aussie at 8710

Gen dk 20:54 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Makassar Alimin 20:52 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
short audusd 0.8705, stop 0.8750

NIGERIA BASORUN 20:47 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
HELLO ANYBODY IN HOUSE

Como Perrie 20:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sorry thought was july 31..earlier the previous

Como Perrie 20:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
btw my chaos games showing usdchf back to 1.22 somewhere mid august.

bibi

Como Perrie 20:19 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
personally do think most of the risks reside in yours pension funds and central banks assets, plus the system is absorbing quite nicely anything...see the bear stearns multi billion loan and the other many of which we arent informed...but so goes this new world..btw next year election in US to me is already a factor too.

Como Perrie 20:17 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:58 GMT July 13, 2007

::)))


Happy new eve then and watch the computer glitch...

well to tell the whole I dunno, I'll see monday next what else...btw seen some sizeable funds sold emerging markets lately in a progressive way, so concern there is ..I'll wait the flows to start so far


have a nice w/e

Makassar Alimin 20:04 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:58 GMT July 13, 2007

not only from tuesday, there has been lots of doom and gloom reports and analysis these past few years...surely one day they will have their time :)

Syd 20:02 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
UK property could face 'severe crash' in 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/13/bcnboa113.xml

dc CB 19:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:44 GMT July 13, 2007
dc CB 19:06 GMT July 13, 2007

Yes knew about that this morning. But this is a huge flagpole rally in the US indices, multi year highs, all the doom and gloom from tuesday has been miraculously erased from the collective memory.
We're partyin' like it's 1999.

Como Perrie 19:44 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:06 GMT July 13, 2007

there's a reason for that..this morn in London a rumor Iran has asked Japan to start to pay in yens instead of Usds the Oil tankers.

dc CB 19:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
notable that Yen is up against the dollar even with the stock index rally. Previously with this type of push in stocks it would be well above 123 or 124.

Como Perrie 19:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   

Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?

http://www.theoildrum.com:80/node/2752

USA Zeus 18:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
US stox stealing the show from FX land again today?
LOL

USA Zeus 18:43 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well Happy Day!

Ahh yes well dreams do come true. Oil touches 74.

LOL
We scratch and he sniffs.

Happy Trades!

LKWD JJ 18:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
took a whopping 8 thats right 8 pips out of $Y from 00-08.!!!
good w/e to all .might be on vacation for 2 weeks depends on the wife. woe is to me , eh?

The Netherlands Purk 18:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Did not trade the loonie for 4 days now, and it just sits there and staring at me, buy me buy me. But i am not giving in. NN must be back first, and if he is not we will see some 1,02 action all the way
By the looks of it we might see some flying to get to 1,05.

The Netherlands Purk 17:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Yearrange bugger 15074-16893. So i guess it is a long... Havent seen this 1000+ - correction yet. Dick not happy with the situation. He is wondering who that guy is that seems to know where oil is going, not to mention gold.
Speaking of oil, where is oilman? I am glad that he did not come through with his predictions, because he seems to take out every pip in the market.

Ah San Juan Tampa Bay Lil was here i see. Madam your energy waves are hitting me like the mining gear Zeus was mentioning.

Happy day!

USA Zeus 17:47 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well after this summer the Citation X will need to be upgraded to a Boeing Business Jet 747-VIP

LOL

San Juan Lil 17:40 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone!

Purk, congratulations and happy weekend!

And for all those euro bulls out there... what is next 1.40 or 1.34?

TIA GL GT

The Netherlands Purk 17:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 12:57 GMT July 13, 2007

Happy trade and happy day!

Lotsa happies here.
Well the 16822-16912 thingy worked for the day. Closing all possies here. Bugger will tell the tail again next week just by looking at the ranges. Many good chances to short make pips short again for more pips etc. Toppicking not allowed so no entry data for me here...
Happy day and Happy trades.

USA Zeus 17:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 16:20 GMT July 13, 2007
Como Perrie 16:16 GMT July 13, 2007

Thx fellas! :-)

Makassar Alimin 17:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
usdchf is still indicating lower high and lower low, so i'll stick with short bias, could try SAR above 1.2070

USA Zeus 17:01 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Ahaaa. Oil wants that 74 handle...oil NEEDS that 74 handle. 73.93 now
LOL

Hong Kong WT 16:47 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
with hold a short usdcan over this weekend.
Mon, Jul 16, 2007
JA- Holiday- Oceans Day
06:00 DE- Jun HICP (final)
09:00 EZ- Jun HICP (final)
CHART
12:30 CA- May Manufacturing Shipments--->will it be not bad? May's data.
12:30 US- Jul Empire PMI (see 16.9 vs. 25.8)

If before NY close, it go down to 1.045X, I will square it.

Mumbai NS 16:20 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Zeus well yes drawing that horizontal line for God knows how many 8 hourlies but now seeing some interesting stocs in the slow cordon on 4 hourlies seems interesting to me gl gt

Como Perrie 16:16 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:19 GMT July 13, 2007

imvho this was one of your best post. clear simple and straight.

Lahore FM 16:13 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
AV,for me it is down on the day and now have a short term sell signal too.

london av 16:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
lahore FM, whats the reasoning for selling?

Lahore FM 16:03 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sold gold 666.60.stopless for now.

HK Kevin 15:54 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY may test 105.50 tonight

Richland QC Mailman 15:53 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Sold a couple of cables 2.0357 stop 20385. Good trades to all! Will rest, sleep in a while.

USA Zeus 15:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well yes everyone has left their seats but those who trade oil and gold....

Happy Day!

Richland QC Mailman 15:42 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Cable - a possible triple top in the offing to reject fourth attempt to break? Selling near the possible triple top is not a bad idea (as price approaches 2.0360's area) imho.

USA Zeus 15:34 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Why do I get the feeling many tried a USD bias this week and got stopped out multiple times as they tried top picking in EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc???

Richland QC Mailman 15:20 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Hello folks! Just back and saw my longs of usd/cad at 1.0470 and 73 established yesterday (NY time) closed at 1.0490 (low was 5 pips away from my set stop loss). Looks like the loonie is forming a temporary short-term base 1.0450.

USA Zeus 15:19 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Just load a 15 min chart of EUR/USD and draw a horizontal line at 1.3777 for the last three days.

Syd 15:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD Bounce Confirms Long USD Bias - TD
Another decent bounce from the low/mid C$1.0400 area Friday morning, the third this week, maintains its bias to try and trade the market from the long side for now, TD Securities says. "Short, medium and longer term slow stochastic studies are all at or near oversold (and the weekly slow stochastic signal is showing a slight but persistent bullish divergence)," TD says in a report. The narrowing daily range also indicates that downside momentum is slowing sharply, it says. "We are long from 1.0495 and maintain a 1.0425 stop and 1.0695 target (top of the channel)," TD says

hk ab 15:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
when mkt can't find any stops to hit on upside, they may like to choose the other side.

hk ab 15:11 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
can eur/jpy be artificial rescued again?.....

london av 15:05 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
gbp/yen just does not want to go past 249. will we revisit 246 again

hk ab 14:56 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
lots of stops above 50's for yen and chf while under 50's for eur.

USA Zeus 14:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Yes the power of the Zeus quadratic magnetometer pivot 1.3777('s) stopped EUR/USD cold in its tracks- a point too good for Lil to pass up.

hk ab 14:44 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
MIB fleeing for the holidays?

hk ab 14:41 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
zeus, make a wish, that eur will close @ your fulcrum 1.3777

hk ab 14:40 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy is leading everything.

HK [email protected] 14:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
The carry trade is an approved conspiracy between the Japs and the Americans.

Iran will not be allowed to dictate anything in the CCY. MKT., by whatever decision.

Expect the news effect to be wiped out.

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well already realised gains in excess of 1000 pips this week- not too shabby. Will need a Le Tourneau L-2350 to scoop up those pips.

Happy Day!

hk ab 14:19 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
see if Martin will come out with his MIB....

hk ab 14:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
mkt will become quite thin when most players will exit to get thier profit for summer fun...

melbourne DC 14:07 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
1351 GMT [Dow Jones] June retail sales apparently missed the iPhone sales at the end of June and may be subject to substantial upward revision according to Dave Greenlaw, senior economist at Morgan Stanley. "As many as 700,000 units were sold over the opening weekend at an average price of $600 per unit," noted Greenlaw. "If all of these sales were captured in June, it would have boosted the home electronic category by about 4.5 percentage points." Instead, the retail sales report showed a 1.4% decline for the category. Either June gets revised higher, the sales show up in July, or some combination. (JJM)

watch out if trading on the retail figures. the i-Factor.

USA Zeus 14:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:48 GMT July 13, 2007

Dunno about that one. Market has to clearly overcome the super magnet at 1.3777('s) still.

Syd 14:04 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jul Sentiment 92.4; Jun 85.3
Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jul Current Index 105.7; Jun 101.9
Reuters/Univ Michigan Mid-Jul Expectations 83.9; Jun 74.7
Reuters/U Michigan 12-Mo Inflation Forecast +3.3%; Jun +3.4%
Reuters/U Michigan 5-Yr Inflation Forecast +3.1%; Jun +2.9%

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:04 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
UoM CSI 92.4 v 85.3, as I said earlier, non-event

melbourne DC 14:03 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:57 GMT July 13, 2007

Commentary: 1.3800 held yesterday but the EURUSD could test that level again today before bearish potential comes to the forefront. We say this because the rally from 1.3731 may be tracing out an ending diagonal. If this is the pattern playing out, then we should see a spike through 1.3798 before a reversal. However, upside potential is limited compared to downside risk. It seems likely that we’ll see a decline backl towards the former 4th wave at 1.3568 next week. Coming under 1.3731 instills confidence in the near term bearish case.
Strategy: Sell break of 1.3731, against swing high (currently 1.3798), target 1 is 1.3568, additional bearish potential below there.

similar view to censored tech. so the soveriegn demand (if there is ), could have big bang for their money.


Syd 13:59 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Mike Moran Standard Charter saying the move of Iran re: oil possitive for Yen moving higher - Carry trade negative !!

USA Zeus 13:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Forget the rake. Think we need a Bucyrus Erie model 1850B.

melbourne DC 13:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
on a simple thought .. i would have thought the iran yen news itself is $Y neutral (since iranian didnt like $ anyway) but eY positive (unless they want to keep the Y for sushi). unless the current positioning in Y cross on friday 13th means more of Y impact (which us equities would also play a part). If so , dip shouldn't last.

Syd 13:57 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Eur/$ has pushed to another slight new high but is again having difficulties building on those gains. Appear to be forming a small rising wedge over the last few days, generally seen as a topping pattern that resolves sharply lower. Note too that the market is within the final upleg in the fall from the Jul 6th low at 1.3565 (see numbering on hourly chart below and possibly the whole rally from the June low at 1.3260) and is overbought after the last month of sharp gains. For now, would short on a clear break below the base of the wedge (currently at 1.3760/70) as it would greatly increase the likelihood that at least a temporary top is in place. Support below there is seen at 1.3690/00.
FXA

USA Zeus 13:54 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Mission accomplished locked 73.68

USA Zeus 13:49 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well Oil up $700/contract in 1 hr 73.60 from 72.90.....ahhhh

hk ab 13:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
zeus, maybe you need a new fulcrum at 1.3888

dc CB 13:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Do you believe them now?????????

Bloomberg.com reported Lehman Brothers said the worst of the global credit market rout caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage slump is over and investors should buy European investment-grade debt. "The worst of the hedging process is behind us," Lehman credit strategist David Brickman in London wrote in a research note. While there will be "more bumps to come," the selloff this week is "overdone." Lehman Brothers, Barclays Capital and Societe Generale SA say investors overstated the risk of slowing economic growth and the effect on earnings. Cos have "strong" cash reserves and the default rate is near the lowest on record, Lehman said. Any deterioration in credit quality is likely to be "gradual." Lehman is recommending that investors bet on improved credit quality by selling the benchmark iTraxx Europe Series 7 index of credit-default swaps on 125 investment-grade companies.

dc CB 13:44 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
T. Boone Pickens comments on CNBC
Says the oil could pull back to $67 or $68, but the producers want a higher price, and they want to see how much the world can stand on price. Thinks they will keep pushing it on up as far as it can go.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:42 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY :  :  As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market has a tendency to trade between 166.23 - 168.57. A projected resistant is located at 169.41 - 169.51. A barrier is expected at [167.17]. The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle are 165.30 - 165.76 - 166.23* - 166.70 - [167.17] - 167.64 - 168.10* - 168.57 - 169.04.

USA Zeus 13:42 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well here we are an hour later and oil is up $600/contract

madrid mm 13:40 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
....and now

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Iran will allow United Nations inspectors to visit later this month a reactor under construction that could produce plutonium, the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency said.

The agreement came during discussions this week in Tehran between Ali Larijani, the country's security chief, and Olli Heinonen, the nuclear agency's deputy director-general.

Thi is called cat and mouse game
8+-) lol

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sounds like an awful lot of shovellin' in with the rakin'

melbourne DC 13:37 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
eurusd not staying above 1.38 even with retail data, and iran oil news?

LKWD JJ 13:34 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
if $Y keeps going up those yens will be worth less than if they got paid in usd. are they expecting a bbig yen gain vs the majors or even just usd?what will they do with all those yens if they dont want usd? they will buy euro or gbp. how is it yen positive that the mkt just dropped ? they will sell yen!!!

USA Zeus 13:33 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
At least they explain it away with new reasons other than the carry trade is going/coming, resuming/ending. But the chart does not lie because it does not know how to explain or justify anything but how to rake in the pips.

madrid mm 13:27 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, to counter the risk that U.S. dollar transfers may be frozen by increased sanctions.
Click here

HK Kevin 13:26 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, bad luck. Both short AUD/USD and long USD/CAD positions got stop loss. eware if EUR close above 1.3780 today. No trading today for me la.

Syd 13:23 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Retail Sales Data For GDP Figures Not So Bad
Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman, said of the weaker-than-expected US retail sales data: "If there is a sliver lining to be found it is that excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, retail sales was flat after a 0.9% rise in May. This is the figure that gets used for GDP calculation."

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh pa 13:13 GMT

of course, unless it is well above consensus (86.0), then it will be a non-event or a data aberration - lol

hk ab 13:17 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
not many aware 2 things......

1) There are way too "few" stops above 1.38.
2) eur/jpy seems struggle to go up any further....

Hope it helps.

Bandung AS 13:16 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
not interesting data for today, :(

Hong Kong Qindex 13:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market has a tendency to consolidate between 1.5714 - 1.6040. The mid-point reference of 1.5714 and 1.6040 is [1.5877]. The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle projected series are 1.5714* - 1.5796 - [1.5877] - 1.5958 - 1.6040*

pittsburgh pa 13:13 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Will the July University of Michigan Sentiment Survey be a big market mover today?

USA Zeus 13:12 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
And just like that oil hits 73.24
LOL

USA Zeus 13:10 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Right. Oil is at 73.08. Euro knows the pattern and gold is itching for freedom.

Shenzhen Laowen 13:08 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 13:01 GMT July 13, 2007 //

Mate I am interested in yr points. Can you show me your successful calls in the past? Many thanks.

Shenzhen Laowen 13:08 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 13:01 GMT July 13, 2007 //

Mate I am interested in yr points. Can you show me your successful calls in the past? Mant thanks.

Jerusalem ML 13:01 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EU -
i tell you we will see Euro weakening today ,
lets all make a market.

good luck anyway man

hong kong seek 12:59 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 12:57 GMT July 13, 2007
could u share your m/t view on Eur ? gl

EU theEUROqueen 12:57 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
yes it will be a black friday BUT for the usd not for the euro

happy trade

Shenzhen Laowen 12:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ab, seems you have got yr first lot of $CAD long. GT and GL.

melbourne DC 12:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
range diehard speaking ...
if good nfp cannot keep eurusd below 1.36, and bad retail sales cannot keep eurusd above 1.38 ... we r in for 1.36-38 range ? still too early to tell and certainly not going to trade on that for now.. may have eggs on my face pretty soon (not to mention prev thought of range below/around 1.35. )
This week truly mucked up by pretty strong directional flows to trade on data release.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:51 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 23:45 GMT July 12, 2007
EUR/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.3693* - 1.3718 // 1.3743* - 1.3768 - 1.3793* // 1.3817 - 1.3842* ...

Como Perrie 12:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
I dunno, so not trading short term today. I'll see It tonite or the w/e. Bibi

Hong Kong Qindex 12:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The pattern of monthly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.4271 - 1.4614. Projected supporting levels are located at [1.4100] and [1.4170]. The current expected trading range from the monthly cycle projected series are [1.4100] - 1.4186 - 1.4271* - 1.4357 - 1.4443 - 1.4528 - 1.4614*.

USA Zeus 12:38 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Looks like oil wants to complete its mission today. Now at 72.91

Como Perrie 12:36 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
as you might have seen retail It came out in some of a surrpise with a stops purging from yesterdays possies long the buck here and there, except the ozzie. I'll still watch into later so to see where the market goes once the news traders get bit exhousted.

Como Perrie 12:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
karachi invest 12:28 GMT July 13, 2007

how many sick people inhabitating this world I guess

Como Perrie 12:25 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
US both export and import prices seen higher respectively at 0.3 and 0.7, while retail sales seen far lower from previous reading at 1.4 with a consensus of 0.10 pct.

ex. auto seen 0.20 pct

later on business inventories and michigan

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:05 GMT

actually it yellow shirt Friday for me LoL

Jerusalem ML 12:16 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
BLACK FRIDAY GUYS !!
EURO TO HAVE A CRAZY DAY
I SEE IT GOING DOWN TODAY TOWARDS 3680 !

BEWARE!!

M

hk ab 12:11 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
mkt has spent a long while to break this usd index 80 marks.....

hk ab 12:05 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
btw, it's black friday

Shenzhen Laowen 12:01 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 11:50 GMT July 13, 2007 //

hehe mate, if stopped at 0.7900, then ab's 0.7920 won't be hit. LOL.

hk ab 11:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
is that 1.0440 barrier still there?

Hong Kong Ahe 11:50 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Shenzhen Laowen 11:37 GMT - Better short at NZDUSD at 0.7878/80 Stop 0.7900 GLGT

hk ab 11:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
yes, for dlr/cad.

for kiwi. I will be v. surprise it can make 200 pips more without asking the yen to help.

Shenzhen Laowen 11:42 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
BTW, ab, are you going to Long $Cad if a dip is seen? GL and GT.

Shenzhen Laowen 11:37 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ab, where should be the stop of the kiwi short? I intend to play w/o one for today.

hk ab 11:33 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
laowen kiwi short entered. reserve some if 7920 seen.

PAR 11:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Looking for much better than expected june retail sales mostly due to price increases not picked up by CPI figures and core CPI .

Syd 11:24 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
There are worries investor risk aversion towards higher-yielding assets is deepening and the ZAR may start to weaken, says Moody's Economy.com economist Melanie Averall. Adds suggestions that Zimbabwe may be allowed to join a South Africa-led monetary union could increasingly dampen investor sentiment toward the region. Via continued carry-trade activity, the ZAR hit highs against both the USD and the JPY at the start of this week.

Syd 11:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read Black Swan Enjoy, but one-way bets deserve care
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/research/index.html?nid=8477

hk ab 11:09 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
we will soon know whetehr we are lucky to get that blip in kiwi.

Shenzhen Laowen 11:04 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ab// You, martin and Oil man are all my mentors. LOL.

hk ab 10:49 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
laowen//GC martin is the master of this kiwi fruit.

SydoJoe 10:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Nakatomi San I suggest the way the housewives and obaasan are trading you can just go to takashimaya and find some excellent traders in Ginza ! Oyasuminasai

GVI john 10:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 10:37 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

Gen dk 10:27 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 10:23 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Nakatomi 10:11 GMT July 13, 2007

Spamming is banned here.

london av 10:12 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think GBP/yen short look good with stops above 249. keeps failing to pass that

Hong Kong Qindex 10:08 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF: The critical level of the monthly cycle charts is located at 1.6569 - [1.6615]. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.6615. A projected supporting point is positioning at [1.6505]. In the mean time the market is likely to consolidate between [1.6505] - [1.6615].

Como Perrie 09:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:33 GMT July 13, 2007

Yeap agree there's plenty of curious stuff happening around, but no big time at current to read the whole...maybe I'll later on some. Currently am bit busy with some larger term analysis and the like on several instruments. So far the US managers as from Enron, the bigger case, but with all the line have abused of certain rights by flasificating balances and several reports. Many lawyers making huge money at current now from years, so bad there's no lawyer's big studio quoted on wall street :))

Sydney ACC 09:57 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
See below changes to RBNZ intervention announced earlier today.
In a paper published in 2004 the Australian Reserve Bank identified three particular occasions when it intervened - mid 1980's after the float, the first half of the 1990's and one period after 1997. On each occasion the Bank was required to buy AUD's.
The Bank stated its profit from this intervention amounted to USD 5.2 billion.

Syd 09:33 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:29 welll just read the article , was I right or was I right not just Arabs but the Russians are coming too , the weathy Hedge Fund managers cashing in their bonus, just before the hedge fund rolls over and plays dead

Como Perrie 09:32 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
o.c. except the pfolio stuff am flat, meant just the trading stuff.

Sydney ACC 09:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
How about this one:

Prime properties in London sell at 2,300 pounds a square foot, or 5 percent more than nearest rival, Monaco.

You atest to that one Oil Man?

Como Perrie 09:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Am flat an watch btw short term bit foggy to me at current levels.

Como Perrie 09:29 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:58 GMT July 13, 2007

Those paid robbers are talking the books sold to retailers, else they got fired. So the forum might become a better source of a honest briefing working group imvho.

Syd 09:28 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:27 GMT arabs buying them up

Sydney ACC 09:27 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Luxury home prices in London rose at the fastest monthly rate since real estate broker Knight Frank LLC began tracking them 31 years ago, suggesting the most expensive properties remain resilient to rising interest rates.

The average price of the costliest houses and apartments in the British capital gained 3.1 percent in June after May's 2.5 percent increase, a monthly index compiled by London-based Knight Frank showed. Prices advanced almost 35 percent from June 2006, the biggest annual gain since mid-1979.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602062&sid=ae2pXaiiryG8&refer=movers_by_index

Shenzhen Laowen 08:59 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:35 GMT July 13, 2007 //

Exactly mate. Histirically you were great on trading Nzd pairs so I think very probably you are correct.

Bandung AS 08:57 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD looks like nerver stop bullish, what makes that???

Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP: The pattern of my monthly cycle charts indicate that the market can easily trade between 0.6721 - 0.6798. The lower barrier of the monthly cycle is positioning at 0.6701 // 0.6721. The current expected trading ranges are 0.6701 // 0.6721* - 0.6740 - 0.6759 - 0.6779 - 0.6798* - 0.6818 - [0.6837].

Hong Kong Qindex 08:42 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP: The pattern of my monthly cycle charts indicate that the market can easily trade between 0.6721 - 0.6798. The lower barrier of the monthly cycle is positioning at 0.6701 // 0.6721.

hk ab 08:35 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
laowen, many kiwi m/t highs were witnessed during asian in the past, but it can't be ruled out though.

dlr/jpy is playing the "thing".

London 08:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Law firm warns that sub prime mis-selling crisis could equal endowment scandals of the past
A leading City law firm is warning that The Financial Services Authority's damning report on the sub-prime mortgage industry last week could eventually lead to a flood of claims against lenders and advisers...

Law firm Reynolds Porter Chamberlain is predicting cash-strapped borrowers struggling with payments could capitalise on the FSA's report and make claims against both lenders and advisers.

Robbie Constance, Solicitor, of RPC:

"Where the FSA go, claims follow, fuelled by rising interest rates. Interest rate rises are bad news for borrowers. Already over-stretched, many in the sub-prime sector are likely to blame their inability to pay on the lenders and advisers that recommended their mortgage.

"Public criticism from the FSA encourages complaints - and not just against those five firms facing enforcement action."

RPC points out that the FSA's report, exposing weaknesses in the methods sub-prime lenders and intermediaries have assessed the ability of borrowers to pay, could lead to mis-selling claims on a scale not seen since investigations into the Pensions Review and the on-going mortgage endowment crisis.The sub-prime sector lends to those with poor credit records, borrowers' mortgage arrears are currently running at 20 times those of conventional mortgages, a trend that is expected to rise following the latest interest rate hike.
firstrung.co.uk

Syd 07:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Simon Goodfellow ING says he has been asking for the last weeks why OIL has shot us like it has, and cant get a straight answer.

Shenzhen Laowen 07:54 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ab, thanks for your input. Do you still see Kiwi can go up to 0.7920 within today? GL & GT!

hk ab 07:51 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
disappointed not to see dlr/jpy reaches 123 to complete this round of correction to prepare those fatal dive......

hk ab 07:49 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
btw, prefer kiwi than aud short as aud/nzd seems going to make a furious UP soon...

hk ab 07:49 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Laowen//on cad front, I see a possibility for an irrational dive to kill stops under 1.0440, so, I split entry to 2 and 1 @1.0445 another at 1.0405.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD: The critical level of my monthly cycle is positioning at [2.0205] - 2.0377. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 1.9688 - 2.0377. The distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.9688 - 2.0377. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.0205.

Syd 07:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Cable looks vulnerable to weakness at the open, says Royal Bank of Scotland, however while support between 2.0205 and 2.0185 holds, the bank sticks with its constructive interweek view for the rate. Topside, the bank says, gains through 2.0365-90 (recent high and projected channel top) opens the way toward 2.0670-85 with intermediate resistance coming in at 2.0450 and 2.05. Cable now trades at 2.0285

Gen dk 07:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:38 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
okidoki..have a good day ahead...

am off some into later...

Como Perrie 07:37 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday's cable and eur lows are significant for larger multidays moves imvho.

Como Perrie 07:32 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Might be It (usdcad) goes there as per the oil retracement we have see this as US Oil refineries have restarted production units, which were the main fundamental couse for the recent upper spike into the 73/74 area.

Como Perrie 07:29 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ref UsdCad looks yet complex while below the 1.0500/30 area.

Shenzhen Laowen 07:29 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:09 GMT July 13, 2007 //

A sudden turn just now on Aud, Nzd and CAD. Did you get some,mate?

Como Perrie 07:29 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
ref earlier UsdJpy It will be very interesting if the pair crosses clearly the minor resistance upper around the 122.70 area.

Syd 07:22 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Hans Redeker, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London, warns of the "significant event risk" that still exists in financial markets "given the high correlation between asset classes that would have the potential to tighten liquidity significantly and swiftly."

"While markets might be happy to turn a blind eye on these events for now, a change in sentiment is all that is needed for a reversal of the yen's fortunes," he said, referring to a likely rebound in the Japanese currency should risk appetite fall again.

Como Perrie 07:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
More or less It seems me the Usd is well defended today, while all looks It is going to be an interesting day ahead. I'll take the whole very softly at current morning mix. Maybe more deeply later on after Us datas.

hk ab 07:09 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//mkt rewards brave longers in dlr/cad.....
be patient to wait for a sudden turn to go long.

Como Perrie 07:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Milano PS 04:35 GMT July 13, 2007

Maybe at the beginning positive, over larger time have some doubts as influences the GDP growth negatively.

Como Perrie 07:05 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Morn

best pair to watch today to me seems UsdJpy

London 07:02 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
2007 Second Quarter FX Outlook
http://www.gocurrency.com/outlook-nzd-usd.htm

Syd 06:57 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY fall as investors take profits since rising above $1.38, Y169 prevented due to "considerable" size of options-related selling orders, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank.

Toronto MRC 06:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
I have a theory that today's retail sales number is going to disappoint. Walmart may have benefited from higher oil/gas pushing the consumer to more economical retailers. Oil started June at 63-64 dollars and finnished the month at about 70. The move on the dow yesterday was mainly about short covering so today we might see a reversal. imho

USA Zeus 06:23 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Right. Let's see if Dick can stay positive after his vacation. Especially during a Friday like this- as action heats up.

Happy Day!

The Netherlands Purk 06:09 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
16912-16944-16972-17001-17018-170515555-17081..

16822-16791-... 16733 (if 16745 is cleared) than there is 16553. That last row is nearly 250 pips away. The first row as well. We could make that, lets make it a positive Friday not a black one.

Just keep an eye on 16822-16912.

Happy day!

madrid mm 06:09 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
1.3800 euro/usd the number to watch today IMHO.

have a great day !

“Only one man in a thousand is a leader of men, the other 999 follow women” Groucho Marx 8+-)

madrid mm 06:03 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hello hello hello

SF Fed President Janet Yellen says there is no fundamental change in the way Fed is looking at inflation, despite recent talks of important of rising food and energy costs. Yellen says last 3 months "core inflation" has been "really pretty low" and would be surprised if it is sustained.

Fed Yellen says she is "not fully convinced" core PCE can be sustained at 1.9%y/y right now, but adds inflation expectations are pretty well balanced.

NKS article: Despite its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the BoJ stressed it is confident about the health of the domestic economy, leaving open the possibility of a rate hike as early as August. BoJ Governor Toshhiko Fukui hinted that an interest-rate hike might be in the offing in the near term but emphasized that the BOJ policy board will continue to carefully monitor risk factors.

RBNZ announces change to FX management. RBNZ Gov Alan Bollard says RBNZ will hold some portion of our foreign reserves on an unhedged basis - an "open FX" position. This means that part of the foreign reserves portfolio will be funded in NZD rather than in foreign currencies."

Main reason for this new approach to (FX) management is to give the Bank a more effective means of responding to crisis situations involving sharp falls in the NZD. RBNZ may continue to intervene in FX markets.

NZ retail sales for May at robust +1.2%m/m, vs expectation of only +0.4%. Actual retail sales +6.7%y/y vs 6.1% expected.

North Korea is proposing having military talks with US, with the topic relating to peace and security in the Korean pensinsula. - KNCA. 6-party nuclear talks to start on July 18. - Reuters.

Focus in Asia on the rising US stocks markets and the renewed demand for risk and thus carry trades.

Kiwi started the day on a hawkish note, by hitting fresh 22 year highs of 0.7879 from 0.7830-40, after the much stronger than expected retail sales, pushing NZD/JPY up as well toward 96.45 from 95.90-00, on speculation that RBNZ may still need to hike from current OCR 8.00%.

Kiwi then reversed course, hitting day lows of 0.7818 on RBNZ moves to change its FX management- leading to speculation RBNZ may want to intervene again. Offers now at 0.7850-60, bids still 0.7780-90.

All eyes on huge EUR options, with EUR managing only an all time highs of 1.3799, 1 pip ahead of huge 1.3800 option triggers, with talks large UK clearers, European names amongst huge sellers there, payout >15-20m, talks of good China, Sovereign interest there, while M.E. names sold >EUR1-2b at highs in NY. More option at 1.3820.

USD/JPY rose to highs of 122.61 on back of good Japanese sec houses/ US investment buying, but unable to take out stops above 122.65, with fixing before Japan Ocean's Day holiday at 122.71. Talks of good selling interest from Japanese exporters, mega-city banks at 122.55-65.

EUR/JPY new high of 168.95, but capped b4 169 triggers, Cable weighed by EUR/GBP buying toward 0.69, Cable bids at 2.0250 level, USD/CAD remains capped on M+A. USD eye US Retail Sales

Nikkei +1.44% or 258pts at 18,242 on Dow rally. JGBs fall on weak UST, Nikkei rise, 10-year yield +0.025% at 1.925%.Aug crude oil remains firm in Asia, but off 11-m highs of $73.80 seen in NY, currently at, $72.55, +$0.05.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.33/122.61, EUR/USD 1.3777/1.3792, GBP/USD 2.0285/2.0305, USD/CHF 1.2027/1.2042, AUD/USD 0.8654/0.8676, NZD/USD 0.7816/0.7879.

The Netherlands Purk 05:52 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Right, stumble stumble wtf is it again?
bugger: 16822 to catch and 16912...

sydney ge11ja 05:52 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
fingers crossed my friend

Syd 05:36 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 05:20 just listening to Jeremy Stetch fx analyst says , currencies are stretched at present levels and can see a correct coming in the not too distant future .

Bodrum OEE 05:28 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
London 03:34 GMT July 13, 2007

I posted a response. It is in the political forum. Thanks

sydney ge11ja 05:20 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:21 GMT July 13, 2007

Would definitely help the RBNZ if the AUD wasnt so well bid. There just doesnt seem to be any interest to bring the AUD back of its highs

Syd 05:03 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (AP)--A powerful typhoon pounded Japan's southern Okinawa island chain Friday, cutting power to tens of thousands of households and grounding hundreds of flights.
About 60,000 households were without power - 11% of all households in Okinawa, according to Tomoko Sunagawa, an official of Okinawa Electric Power Co. It was not immediately clear when power would be restored.

Syd 04:43 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Thai Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said Friday the government will take action to contain excessive volatility in the baht currency.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:40 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is defined at 1.2008 - 1.2513. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.1945 // 1.2008. A projected resistant range is located at 1.2329 - 1.2387.

Sydney ACC 04:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Milano PS 04:35 GMT July 13, 2007
Bush will veto the bill. The Democrats can't muster a two-thirds majority in the House and Senate tom override the presidential veto.

London 04:38 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Milano PS 04:35 GMT about time too its draining the USA

Sydney ACC 04:38 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd, who is right the equity market or the FXZ market?
The FX market sells the USD down to a generational low, the market is as bearish as censored looking at further significant depreciation. One comment I saw indicated EUR at USD 1.45 within a year, or
Equities at a record high on the day USD reaches significant lows over concerns to activity in the US economy the equity market soars nearly 2 per cent to a record high.
I know bond yields are off and that pricing models base their calculations off the risk-free rate butn glory be, if the US economy is a bucket of **** like everyone likes to point out how come billions of dollars were invested driving this market north yesterday.
I received a report yesterday advising investors to stay away from 5 things:
1. Residential property
2. Corporate Bonds
3. China
4. Equities especially the Dow; and
5. The USD.
Someone ought to tell the punters.

Milano PS 04:35 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
House votes for withdrawal from Iraq till April 08!
Should be Positive Us dollar!!!!-

Sydney ACC 04:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:18 GMT July 13, 2007
The cost of food is definitely increasing and will continuye to do so. Bakers Delight increased the price of braed this week, an annuyal occurrence, ten cents a loaf to AUD 3.00 an increase of 3%, but rolls went up 10% from 50 cents to 55 cents. National Foods alerted consumers that wholesale price of milk will increase by 25% in coming months due to the ongoing ramifications of the drought notwithstanding recent rains.
Conversely the price of imported consumer goods and petrol will be lower because of the currency. Between March and June the currency appreciated 4 cents, since June its up 3 cents whether these increases remain only time will tell, what will have occurred is that imported goods have been discounted, there is sufficient competition out there to ensure much of benefit of a higher Aussie has been passed on.
The Reserve Bank is smart enough to interpret the figures accordingly they will continue the jawboning but remain on hold.

Syd 04:21 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC obviously the RBNZ have been working out a way to combat the markets over the last few weeks. Get the feeling as with the report below market may be getting just a llittle toooo bearish USD seems every man and his dog has a sell order

MARKET TALK: Key Level For NZD 0.7830;USD To Provide Cue-HIFX
NZD/USD needs to hold above key support around 0.7830 to retain upward bias near term, says HIFX director of trading Mike Hollows, noting a failure to break through technical resistance around last week's all-time high of 0.7880 earlier in the session - despite stronger-than-expected NZ May retail sales print - is "reasonably important." Says a lot depends overnight on USD sentiment; "we've got to bear in mind there's a lot of broad-based USD weakness out there, not just NZD strength." Pegs support at 0.7790, resistance 0.7880. NZD/USD last 0.7833.

Syd 04:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04 I think they did extremely well, and it worked.
What do you think about the CPI at the end of the month , I have a feeling it wont be as stella as most think

Hong Kong Qindex 04:17 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD: As shown in the monthly cycle charts the critical level is located at [1.0372] - 1.0483. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.0372. The downside targeting level is 1.0033 - 1.0042. A projected resistant barrier is located at 1.0568*.

sydney ge11ja 04:16 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:11 GMT July 13, 2007

What worries me for today is that the traders would have been reluctant to be short yen crosses today given last Fridays price action and the moves this week. If this RBNZ news turns out to be significnt then we will hav a big move as the trading community will not be able to absorb the flow. Think about how the market moved Wednesday morning.

Sydney ACC 04:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:55 GMT July 13, 2007
When RBNZ maintained a "hands-off" approach to the exchange rate it made perfect sense to hedge its reserves. NZ interest rates were higher than those currencies that comprised the reserves. The bank made a profit out of the currency swaps.
Now they are intervening it makes perfect sense not to hedge. They are signalling to the market you can take us on but we will hold the position we take from you asnd hold it at our discretion - ala RBA.
Its only six years ago that the Aussie was trading less than 50 cents US, now its in the mid-eighties. Despite a negative yield for that period which the bank can absorb without pain I think you will agree they would have done well.

Syd 04:11 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 04:01 cycle has come full circle , think the USD will have its day in the sun again

Shenzhen Laowen 04:11 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, patience might work for today. I loaded some Aussie shorts at 0.8670 and will see if we can get some Kiwi at 0.7920. LOL. BTW, where would you put the SL for Kiwi from 0.7920?

sydney ge11ja 04:01 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:39 GMT July 13, 2007

Yep my point being its still a yield story and we have just swapped the Belgian Dentists with Mrs Watanabe, Same story, different players but very much same ending.

hk ab 04:00 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
where's oil man? Hope he can shed us some light on this black Friday and kiwi.

Think big names haven't unloaded all cargoes yet so, a furious, irrationaly uppush from here to nz sky will provide the signals.... GT all.

Syd 03:55 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ comments on adopting more open position on FX reserves "reasonably significant" for NZD, says HIFX director of trading Mike Hollows; adds, it "doubles (RBNZ's) firepower" to intervene to sell down NZD; "effectively it means they've got more fire power to sell NZD and buy foreign currency unhedged." Thinks comments may provide a "good excuse" for corrective move down for NZD near term. NZD/USD last 0.7836 vs 0.7864 before RBNZ statement

Syd 03:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 03:29 if you mean the Aud, interest rates back then were 17&

Syd 03:37 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:35 criky , may be they know something we dont !! he may have been on the wellyphone to the BOJ

Sydney ACC 03:35 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:00 GMT July 13, 2007

The changes outlined in today's announcement are the clearest indication that NZD is overvalued and the RBNZ believes the fall will be swift and significant. Furthermore the Kiwi taxpayer will benefit from the fall, in the meantime the Bank is going to amass foreign currency reserves on an unhedged basis in preparation for the fall.

London 03:34 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
On the one hand people want to say the troops are to blame for the failure of the Iraqi citizens to accomplish anything for themselves on the other they are supposed to be obligated to sit like ducks in a shooting gallery as the Sheites and Kurds destroy themselves at the aid of Iran.

Syd 03:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Standard & Poor's Funds Services said Friday it is seeking a meeting with the management of Australian hedge fund Basis Capital following reports it could restrict withdrawals to ensure its survival after suffering losses of 14% in one fund in June.

Sydney ACC 03:31 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Reserve Bank of NZ announces changes to FX management

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said that for the last 20 years, the Bank’s foreign currency assets have been fully matched by foreign currency liabilities.

“That was an unusual approach by international standards and we are now moving in the direction of a more conventional approach,” Dr Bollard said.

In the future we will hold some portion of our foreign reserves on an unhedged basis – an “open FX” position. This means that part of the foreign reserves portfolio will be funded in New Zealand dollars rather than in foreign currencies.”

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2007/3065318.html

sydney ge11ja 03:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sorry should read "Belgian Dentists"

wellington am 03:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:00 GMT July 13, 2007

Looks like they just did!

sydney ge11ja 03:29 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:58 GMT July 13, 2007

And why was it up there then? The Belgina dentists in search of yield

London 03:07 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
US House votes for troop pullout

Syd 03:00 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ: Bank To Intervene When NZD At Extreme Levels

Syd 02:58 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Australia Dollar Quoted At US$0.8678, Highest Since Feb '89

Bandung AS 02:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sell aussie? isn't more wise to buy AUD/USD?

dc CB 02:05 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
good chance BOJ to lift overnight call rate to 0.75% in August

Lordy...we're gonna have to reconsider that buyout bid....can we afford 0.25% more on our money?

Shenzhen Laowen 01:48 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
BTW, ab, are you also selling Aussie?

Shenzhen Laowen 01:47 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Thanks ab. I have the same opinion as yours, having an order at 0.7920. LOL. $ weakness is over streched at this moment.

dc CB 01:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 01:02 GMT July 13, 2007

Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=GE:US&sid=aJ.QWFrbqWBA

hk ab 01:41 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
laowen, waiting 7920 or a sudden spike up

Syd 01:39 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Market interest rates today suggest odds of 25bps BOJ rate hike August 23 has inched up even further: Credit Suisse survey shows rates imply 69% odds of rate hike next month, compared with 66% chance yesterday right after BOJ's 8-1 vote to stand pat; to be sure, slight rise in odds may simply reflect rise in Japan rates this morning on overnight Treasurys weakness. Still, the new, higher odds underline market's perception that unless upcoming Japanese economic data terrible, good chance BOJ to lift overnight call rate to 0.75% in August

Shenzhen Laowen 01:18 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, are you selling Kiwi now?

Syd 01:17 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
WSJ(7/13) Euro Has Germany, France Clashing Over ECB Policies
BERLIN -- The soaring euro is opening new rifts between Germany and France as the leaders of Europe's two largest economies prepare for an important summit next week.

As the euro has hit ever higher levels against the dollar, the yen and other major currencies in recent weeks, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for more input from political leaders into how the European Central Bank sets monetary policy for the 13 nations that use the currency. Mr. Sarkozy has cited the toll the strong euro has taken on French exports -- particularly plane maker Airbus, which is owned by the French-German joint venture, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co., or EADS.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has resisted any effort by Mr. Sarkozy to inject more politics into the decisions made by the Frankfurt-based ECB. On Tuesday, she told a German radio program: "I don't agree with any of this. I won't go along with it and neither will the entire government." ECB independence should be protected to help it fight inflation, which remains its top priority, she added.

The two leaders will meet Monday at Airbus headquarters in Toulouse, France, to discuss ways to streamline the complex management structure of EADS.

Beyond politics, a difference in business cultures contributes to the clash between leaders of the euro zone's two largest economies. French companies trail Germany's newfound competitiveness, which has been achieved after a long string of economic changes and corporate restructurings since German unification.

While Germany has reliably posted trade surpluses in recent years -- and is the world's largest exporter -- France has seen its trade deficit widen to 27 billion euros ($37 billion) last year from a surplus of 5.2 billion euros five years earlier.

Analysts said German businesses also have diversified overseas more successfully than their French counterparts, insulating them more from euro fluctuations. At the same time, they said the French government has a history of tinkering with currency valuation in efforts to support business, an impulse that never developed in Germany.

Mr. Sarkozy's push for influence of the ECB is expected to become an issue in future EU summits and other policy sessions in Brussels, where he has gone without public support from other euro-zone governments.

In Berlin, Ms. Merkel and her cabinet members take turns mounting open opposition.

"This is an exchange rate we can live with," German Economics Minister Michael Glos said last week, noting benefits such as cheaper imports brought on by the strong euro. "The economy is booming and there are no current problems."

Not so in France, where some of France's industrial champions -- particularly Airbus -- are feeling the pinch.

EADS Chief Executive Louis Gallois warned in an interview published yesterday in the financial magazine Challenges if the dollar sinks more over time, the airplane maker would have to consider if it can continue to make planes in Europe.

He said each 10 U.S. cents the euro rises against the dollar shaves 1 billion euros from the company's operating result.

Airbus's chief rival, Boeing Co., has 80% of its costs in dollars, while 50% of the costs born by Airbus parent EADS are in euros, according to Mr. Gallois. He said the company's Power8 restructuring program is based on an exchange rate of one euro to $1.35.


.





USA Zeus 01:15 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Toward the end the sub prime margins became like real "A" paper as everyone wanted a part of it. Now after the wildfire is cleared out those who remain or step in will be the real winners as the margins will be gigantic and the hedging will be different. The contras will bypass the BMW's and go right for the Maybach 62's and personal chauffers.

USA Zeus 01:09 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:27 GMT July 13, 2007

ab- Yes indeed. Could be a day of (W)reckoning for those who are rigid in their views.

Syd 01:06 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:02 GMT also hearing that may have just made a peak , the only thing I am wary of are the women in japan .

hk ab 01:02 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
syd//nt's favourite contranian indicator Master Hui was calling aud will peak out mid-July.....

sydney ge11ja 01:02 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:30 GMT July 13, 2007
headline in WSJ is that GE plans to sell it sub prime unit

sydney ge11ja 00:59 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT July 13, 2007

+ or - for AUD

Syd 00:45 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:25 GMT Market definitly over stretched for now otherwise would have shot higher the Kiwi, just hearing that the Alcoa deal will have an impact on the Aud once the deal has been set

dc CB 00:30 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
fwiw: GE (General Electric) posts earning tomorrow before the Open along with a conference call. GE has fingers in many pots, including mortgages. Be interesting to listen to the excuses.?

hk ab 00:27 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
zeus, yin and yang, sounds like we are heading for some "R" accidents.

The only yen-cross pair has not pared the high is cad/jpy.... but seeems it will do so.

however, the floor at 1.0440 is very tempting to "BUY".....

hk ab 00:25 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
syd//I am waiting to shoot kiwi @7920....at some points, uncertainty will make the "thing" turn.

USA Zeus 00:24 GMT July 13, 2007 Reply   
Well this is where things get interesting.

The bugger is at interesting levels- Purk will give us the 411 on that to guide us through the range. EUR/USD was successfully stopped by the lucky 7('s) quadratic and the USD index is right there.

Equities are swinging all over as we enter earnings season while gold and oil want to make their own statement.

And to top it off, we see that Dick is now back from his beach vacation just in time for Friday.

Looks like we're all set for some yin and yang action-

GT and Happy Day!

 




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