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Forex Forum Archive for 07/14/2007

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GVI Jay 23:32 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Tornbridge Al has posted his weekend videos on the GVI Trading CLub. If you would like to see one of the following, specify which one and send me an EMAIL

1) 9 minutes on $/Jpy with pivots, Fibs, Trendlnes and mov.avs

2) 4 mins on $/Chf with Channel trends

3) 5 mins on Eur/$ and breakouts

Mtl JP 23:05 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:55 / Monday = Japan holiday => thin market = potential for hanki-panki (with the japanese hausuwaifu for ex ?)

Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
can anyone see Friday's price action in the forex market as an important indicator to the immediate fortunes for the USD?
In a week the Dow and S&P 500 both score record highs on consecutive days and the week closes on a record the FX market pushes the USD to furtrher generational lows against the major currencies.
We have two markets viewing identical data coming up with two different pictures. Despite the 10 year treasury bond bouncing back to a yield of 5.1%, retail sales falling 0.9% in June and other data mixed equities soar. GE claims its stock is undervalued despite the high price of its stock so it will initiate a buyback.
Forex sees the low sales figures pushes the dollar lower on the day but then retreats almost immediately. Higher Michigan sentiment figures then cemented the USD at almost unchanged levels at least against the contientals for the rest of the session.
I am confused higher treeasury yields, higher equities, lower USD. It can't just be the benefit from a lower USD flowing back to those companies with foreign operations of exposures.
Anyone care to comment.

Sydney ACC 21:26 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:02 GMT July 13, 2007
There is so much conflicting data being published about the UK housing market I am confused as to whom I ought to believe.
Nationwide and Halifax, the two largest mortgage lenders, announce conflicting trends.
RICS indicates buying interest waning to the lowest levels in eighteen months.
Knight Frank, the estate agents, said prices of prime central London grew by 3.1 per cent in June, the highest monthly rate of growth since the start of its index in 1976.
Bank of America warns of a one in five chance of a severe property crash in the next two years.
The only thing one can believe is that there is a lot froth and bubble which is common in markets when they reach a turnign point.
One thing is certain the KF and BoA reports will bet short shrift at the BoE. That Central London properties valued at more than GBP 4 million rose by 3.1% in one month hardly affects the average person whosr property is valued at GBP 222k, whats more how often are these properties turned over in any case. Furthermore how many property crashes have been predicted in thge last five years? Probably about the same number of predictions about the end of the world.
I still hold the minority view BoE will not need to increase rates again later this year.

Makassar Alimin 17:59 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 15:50 GMT July 14, 2007

what's your trading plan then? care to share?

EU theEUROqueen 15:50 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
well sounds we made the first step to the 1,4**-1,5**..not now but in the near future..

Happy weekend

Como Perrie 10:36 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Morn...

an interesting week ahead might be. ..btw Lil next week you'll see things far better, just work work and blur the tango moves :))


Think Ocean Day in Japan too, and coupla interesting things onto the calendar...also stocks will look into many company reports...

so relax now

MONDAY, July 16


WASHINGTON -- Treasury bill auction, 2 p.m.


EL SEGUNDO, Calif. -- Mattel Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


TUESDAY, July 17


WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on producer price index for June, 8:30 a.m.; Federal Reserve reports on industrial production for June, 9:15 a.m.


SAN FRANCISCO -- Charles Schwab Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


ATLANTA -- Coca-Cola Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- CSX Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Intel Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. -- Johnson & Johnson reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Merrill Lynch &. Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


RESTON, Va. -- SLM Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


MINNEAPOLIS -- U.S. Bancorp reports second-quarter financial results.


SAN FRANCISCO -- Wells Fargo & Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


SUNNYVALE, Calif. -- Yahoo Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


WEDNESDAY, July 18


WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on consumer price index for June, 8;30 a.m.; Commerce Department reports on housing starts for June, 8:30 a.m.; Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.


ABBOTT PARK, Ill. -- Abbott Laboratories reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Altria Group Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


NORTHBROOK, Ill. -- Allstate Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


FORT WORTH, Texas -- AMR Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


ATLANTA -- Delta Air Lines Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


SAN JOSE, Calif. -- EBay Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


MCLEAN, Va. -- Gannett Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


ARMONK, N.Y. -- International Business Machines Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


MILWAUKEE -- Johnson Controls Inc. reports third-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Pfizer Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


DALLAS -- Southwest Airlines Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


HARTFORD, Conn. -- United Technologies Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


SEATTLE -- Washington Mutual Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


THURSDAY, July 19


NEW YORK -- Conference Board reports its monthly Leading Economic Indicators Index, 10 a.m.


WASHINGTON -- Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates; Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.


OMAHA, Neb. -- TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. reports third-quarter financial results.


SUNNYVALE, Calif. -- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Bank of America Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Bank of New York reports second-quarter financial results.


DEERFIELD, Ill. -- Baxter International Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


MCLEAN, Va. -- Capital One Financial Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


HOUSTON -- Continental Airlines Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Dow Jones & Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo. -- First Data Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- Google reports second-quarter financial results.


MILWAUKEE -- Harley-Davidson Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


HERSHEY, Pa. -- Hershey Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


MORRISTOWN, N.J. -- Honeywell International Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- McClatchy Co. reports second-quarter financial results.


RICHMOND, Va. -- Media General Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


REDMOND, Wash. -- Microsoft Corp. reports fourth-quarter financial results.


SCHAUMBURG, Ill. -- Motorola Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Nucor Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


PLEASANTON, Calif. -- Safeway Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands -- Seagate Technology reports fourth-quarter financial results.


OMAHA, Neb. -- Union Pacific Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


MINNETONKA, Minn. -- UnitedHealth Group Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


MADISON, N.J. -- Wyeth reports second-quarter financial results.


FRIDAY, July 20


ABINGDON, Va. -- Sentencing for OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma LP and three current and former executives for misleading the public about the risk of addiction to the painkiller.


DETROIT -- Contract talks to formally begin between United Auto Workers, Chrysler Group and Ford Motor Co.


NATICK, Mass. -- Boston Scientific Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Citigroup Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


PEORIA, Ill. -- Caterpillar Inc. reports second-quarter financial results.


NEW YORK -- Schlumberger Ltd. reports second-quarter financial results.


CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Wachovia Corp. reports second-quarter financial results.


SATURDAY, July 21


UNDATED -- Last book in the Harry Potter series, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows," released.

The Netherlands Purk 08:01 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Sh. am i the only one here who only did kindergarten? Kindergarten ist Deutsch btw. I always thought i was at school because my Purk parents wanted to pester me... I was only interested in fun, and i still am. Strangely enough i learned counting, and that comes in handy with s/l and t/p. At the time i was able to understand what school really was it was too late. Best thing i ever did was listening to nature. Yes i do have a degree of madness. Baggy trousers.

Ah (the word in HK) forex. I trust that for everyone forex is a place of numbers (and if i learned it, everybody else can do it because i am one of the most simple human beings here, i grunt and am abusive to women) I also trust that everybody is in for the bl. money. SOme of us are here just for one. Some of us are actually counting oil: 89,90 74!
I notice that some people are really learning, like hk ab. He is the Sean Kelly of the last decade, taking possies when Dick is squarring. I further trus that everybody is making a lot of Buckaroos with Oily Boilies newsletter and pipmaking blogs. I personally am not taking up any subscription, because i want to call myself an aaarsswhole when i lose and not sandyman or anyone else.
Now i am going to the Isle of Kaag to watch the boats of freedom...

USA Zeus 02:32 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
San Juan Lil 02:09 GMT July 14, 2007

Lil- Thx for the insights. Not irritated in the least- sorry if it seemed so. Bottom line as you mentioned is to make a ton of money. Glad we are fortunate to do so.
cheers!

San Juan Lil 02:09 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Zeus,

Did not mean to irritate you. I do have a law degree and a psychology degree. I am not an economist, or a mathematician, though sometimes I find some of the more academic posts interesting. Particularly I suppose, observing as you say the market psychology as well as the personality of the members.

As far as the rest of your commentary, I have checked out all of the services that are provided by forum members over the years, QIndex, gen dk, Trendways, and others. I have only subscribed to one of them and that is the new Monaco Oil Man Newsletter. I plan to continue with the service because I have made a ton of money, and am also learning about risk management, the use of leverage and other important aspects of trading. I plan to renew the subscription and will keep you posted.

As I said, I don´t really read all the posts, just scan through them looking for what I am interested in, direction, entries and exits, to compare them with my levels... and of course, the psychology. I appreciate and am thankful to those who express themselves in good faith and as clearly as their English allows. Sorry to say, I find your posts obscure at times. ...and no need to answer the question, pls.

Good weekend. Please pardon lenghty post.

USA Zeus 00:20 GMT July 14, 2007 Reply   
Well hello Lil.

My point was (see archives extending back for some time) that 1.3777 was a potentially powerful attractor and target. Turns out it was. You questioned if it stopped the trend (with the added “sorry, too good to resist”). Perhaps that came in light of what seemed like a “trend” to that point where the price was marking up fast and steadily. There is a natural tendency according to my calculations for that to be a powerful hinge. That does not mean that it would have been for sure as nothing about the future is knowable. Successful traders must have a statistical edge and exploit it for success. That just happened to be such.

As for the “convincing” you to take a trade, I would hope that no one could convince any one- not so called experts, fund managers, newsletter writers or forecasters, of taking a trade. One might predict USD bearishness one week with some random targets and be a “genius” as the market flows that direction. The next week the “genius” could flip a coin and decide to be USD bullish and yet the market will still go where it does. Don’t be “Fooled By Randomness”.

My posts and participation here, along with sharing my views and ideas with no commercial intent, has been an experiment to observe certain mass psychology, herd effect, false comfort in strength with numbers and consensus along with the dynamics of those who believe they know what will happen and want to prove they can tell the market what to do. Their motivation is to lure the other members of the forum who are looking for an oracle, to subscribe to their newsletter or trading service. (I subscribe to neither side.) I have observed no such correlation with one’s so called professional title or esteemed designation and performance.

Cheers!

 




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