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Forex Forum Archive for 07/15/2007

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Syd 23:58 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
RBC Capital Markets notes more USD bearishness as IMM net USD short positions increased from 109,334 contracts July 3 to 160,001 July 10. DXY dollar index tumbled 0.7% July 10, after Moody's downgraded subprime mortgage-backed bonds; S&P warned it might follow suit, heightening concern that U.S. mortgage market woes might spread to broader economy. EUR net longs surged 26,400 contracts to 102,896 as EUR/USD hit record high. JPY net shorts shrank again; Moody's, S&P rating actions led to another bout of risk aversion as USD/JPY dropped July 10

Syd 23:41 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
NZ 2Q CPI very strong "in all the wrong places" from RBNZ's point of view, says ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley; data raise odds of another rate hike July 26, though ASB sticking to on-hold view for now, as high NZD/USD - which tapped all-time peak of 0.7894 on data - and early signs of cooling in housing market, with house sale volumes declining, suggest "RBNZ has a bit of time" to assess need for further hikes

Cbj Jake 23:38 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Asian Times: the opaque asian central banks. Nicely written!
"The Robbery of the Century" by Chan Akya -

Wellington, N.Z. 23:23 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 22:58 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
The Australian Labor Party has maintained a wide lead over the governing Liberal-National Coalition in an ACNielsen survey published Monday in the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper.

The survey found Labor holds a 58%-42% lead over the Coalition, widening from 57%-43% in the previous poll a month ago.

Cambridge Zoltan 22:48 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
NZ CPI up 1.0%, expected 0.8%

Sydney ACC 22:39 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT July 15, 2007
Data from 2006, begs the question how much of this was drawndown prior to the first interest rate increase in August last year. Certainly supports the Bank's reasons for earlier increase in interest rates.
It would be more relevant, however, to see data for the first-half of 2007.

Mtl JP 22:04 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 / looks like we may have a version of GumBall Rally:

Mark Gilbert at Bloomberg (ya, I know: traders run risks to their bankaccount; pundits only to their reputation) alleged that "Contagion from the allegedly self-contained implosion in the U.S. subprime mortgage market is drifting through the securities industry like mustard gas. It helped push the dollar to a record low yesterday, triggered the biggest deterioration in European corporate-bond risk in at least three years, and drove an index that tracks leveraged-buyout loans to a nine-month low." BUT he is putting hope in "Those central bankers who have wondered how the brave new financial world of hedge funds and derivatives would cope in a crisis may soon have an answer. Let's hope it's not ``KerPlunk.'' in face of "a record $50 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages will reset at higher levels in October ... RealtyTrac is predicting that more than 1 million borrowers will join the 761,343 already facing foreclosure proceedings this year .. "

Makes me wonder: why NOT "KerPlunk" ?

Syd 21:47 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Homeowners withdraw £49.7 billion
Figures show that the amount of borrowing against the value of their property is rising, with the mortgage equity withdrawal totalling £49.7 billion in 2006.

This figure is up from £36.6 billion in 2005.

Many economists suggested that this rising mortgage equity withdrawal rate would increase consumer spending on the high street. However from figures on retail sales this does not seam to be the case. It appears that more people are using the extra funds to pay off other debts such as credit cards, bank over drafts and other unsecured debts.

Homeowner often release equity in their properties to fund home improvements, but it should be noted that should property prices fall they may be in a negative equity situation.

At this point house prices remain robust, but there appears to be a slow down in house sales. This is particularly prevalent in the first time buyers market with would be purchasers finding it increasingly difficult to get on the property market.

Profit warnings at five-year high
Profit warnings issued by UK-listed firms are at their highest level since the low point of the technology-led stock market crash in 2001

IT is not just property stocks that have taken a hammering. So too have banks exposed to mortgage lending.

Sydney ACC 21:24 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
MORE than a third of voters are cutting spending to keep a roof over their heads, but are more inclined to blame fellow home-owners, investors and developers than the Howard Government,

As in NZ we have a taxation system biased to capital gains. Someone on the maximum rate of 45% can generate a tax arbitrage using negative gearing and property appreciation. Over a five year period where an investor incurs a negative return of 2% per annum (cumulative 10% ignoring funding costs), yet achieves a 10% capital appreciation the tax system will yield a return of 2.25% over that time.

Mtl JP 20:45 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man 12:59 / the prisoner's dilemma: Everybody would be better off if nobody traded, so that there would be no need to recognise lower prices. But if everybody is planning to sell, those who trade first will have an advantage... lol

Bon Air VA Dennis 20:29 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Yep, just buy and keep buting is his/her motto.

USA Zeus 19:24 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:49 GMT July 6, 2007
Oil $2+ next week and gold $10 or $20+

Well you can't win 'em all..Oil +1.20, Gold +16.


Makassar Alimin 17:49 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 16:48 GMT July 15, 2007

Yes Dennis, I am ok with his/her conviction and bias, however, I would like to know what's his/her trading plan to play euro from long side. Is he/she recommending go long now to reach 1.4** and 1.5** and if not, what's the entry level considered...looks like he/she doesnt have one

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:48 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:59 GMT

Alimin, just go to the archives and check queenie's past post, they are always euro ^. No analysis, just bias.

Bodrum OEE 15:40 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Enjoy Çeşme (Ilıca and Alaçatı as well) NYAM. Markets should be able to function without you. Best wishes

NYAM Ceçme 14:41 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Hi. Just popped on to see market action and what caught my eye was Cable. Strange i didnt see much comment (one on right). Think its settıng itsef up for a correctıon but there ıs still room for an extensıon to 2.06 BUT ıf/when we break 2.025 (2-4 t/l) it looks lıke a lovely large set of figures down. Which remınds me there's a nıce set waiting back on the beach...byebye

Monaco Oil Man 12:59 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Always easier to throw a few numbers , and 2 ways strategy..

It's always harder when you actually put stops , and real trades in...otherwise there wouldn't be any markets...

It's that simple, the day , everyone starts making money, there won't be any market..

Good trades.

Sydney ACC 12:40 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Since Jan 1992 the DAX has appreciated 405%, the DOW has risen 337%. The comparative value foir the euro was 1.3323. While on the face of it a US investor would have profited from investing in the DAX viz a viz the DOW over the 15.5 years I leave it toi you to consider whether the additional return was worth the risk especially over the period 2000-2003 when the euro was below par.

Sydney ACC 12:15 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:39 GMT July 15, 2007
Lies, censored lies and statistics - since Jan 1 the Dow has climbed 11% whereas the euro has appreciated against the USD by 4.5%.
As at the beginning of 2003 EUR/USD was 1.0500, having recovered from the lows near 0.8400 in 2001.Markets have a habit of overshooting both ways which is my very point.What makes AUD/USD worth 75% more than it was in 2001 when it plumbed at 0.48. Yes commodity prices are greater than they were then but this country still runs a current account deficit in excess of 5% of GDP. Australia at the time was lambasted as an old economy country a member of the rust belt.
Two things:
It all depends where you pick your starting point. Go back to 1992 and pick the ECU equivalent rate of 1.4577 and what will your answer be then; and
Markets overshoot in their exuberance ala EUR/USD at 0.84, I recall Citi calling it down to sub 80 cents at the time.

Saeasoota HFD 03:22 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
US dollar vs euro vs DOW is meaningless because the consumer pays in local currency- US Dollars. Unless there were taxes + inflation that stripped the DOW gains then they are real.

shanghai bc 01:39 GMT July 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT July 14, 2007

The rise of Dow since 2003 till now is in in minus territory when computed in Euro and some other major currencies..That sums up the true nature of Dow rise..It has been on the back of falling Dollar given the structural issue of US economy. For example, GM has been making roaring profits selling cars in China while at home it behaves like a kind of troubled second division finance company rather than a car-maker..We can say falling Dollar is in the interest of US multi-nationals..On bond yield issue,if the foreigners leave bond market en masse for safety and better returns elsewhere ,Dollar is bound to fall even when the yield keeps rising..


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