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Forex Forum Archive for 07/17/2007

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Syd 23:52 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC can see RBA Stevens being quite dovish today if he mentions the economy , dismissing any views on rate hikes given the election is to be called at any time

Syd 23:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 23:38 I still see Bernanke overlooking the whole situation as market histaria, which if we are honest all is out there just getting the finer details now - the shoe has already dropped . However ,yet to see this across the globe as rates go ever higher they seem to think they are immune :-))

dc CB 23:38 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:35 GMT July 17, 2007

Bear, plus the seeming disappointment with the Intel and Yahoo reports...Most of the popular press are still having stories about record run on Wall St. Futures are down hard as can be expected.

The line that I've been hearing, besides this rally being the mother of all short squeezes, with everyone on the wrong side, is that all the Bad News is known?? and is priced in...it would take something from way out in left field to de-rail this market. So all is good.?

Also keep in mind that this is Options Expiry week, and a lot of the Calls that were sold were so far OTM, before this rally... no one expected this sleepy July expiry to turn out like this.

In one of my more wined-up posts, I said I saw this market as a Kurosawa movie...Ran to be exact...very colorfull displays by the opposing armies.
But it also makes me think of those days as an AD on W$W in the late 80's when Marty Zweig would sit at the table and sweatingly stutter about not wanting to be the one who yells fire in a a crowded theater.

At this point the SF seems to agree. Maybe oilman's target will me meet.

Syd 23:31 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Offshore accounts at 13 foreign brokerages place small net buy orders for 200,000 Japanese shares overnight, according to trader. Sixth straight day of premarket net buying may be positive for market at open, although yen value basis of figures unknown. Buy orders total 30.2 million shares, with sell orders amounting to 30 million shares

Mtl JP 23:22 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:19 / I smell a pump (by so-calkled authority) and dump (by market players) rat. Any word on magnitude on Kyriakopoulos' expected usd support from Ben's tout ?

Syd 23:15 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
BOK Official: If Japan Ups Rates, JPY May Rebound - Report

Syd 23:11 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
earlier in the month article

Beware the fallout from the carry trade
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/31902/beware-the-fallout-from-the-carry-trade.html

Mtl JP 23:05 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 22:16, Syd 22:58 / psst.. also known as
The Bagholderss
Definition
The term 'bagholder' is an informal slang term used in U.S. financial markets to refer to the shareholders left holding shares of worthless stocks. The shareholders could be caught up in a corporate bankruptcy and accounting scandal, as was the case with Enron and Worldcom, or the victims of a pump and dump scheme, in which naive and unsophisticated investors fall victim to e-mail spam, rigged stock tip forums, or other tricks used by stock touts to drive up the shares of worthless penny stocks.

The word is derived by combining shareholder with the expression "left holding the bag."

Holding the Bag

The expression "left holding the bag" originated in eighteenth century Britain and spread throughout the English-speaking world. In this context, a person left holding the bag is stuck with the stolen goods, taking the blame from the police while the rest of a criminal gang escapes.

LOL

Syd 22:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Bear Fund News To Spur More Risk Aversion

Subprime worries bubbling away, maintaining risk aversion, with WSJ quoting sources as saying Bear Stearns has told investors in two hedge funds that portfolios' assets almost worthless; this likely behind early Asian fall in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY. Assets in Bear's more levered fund, High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, worth virtually nothing, they say, while assets in other larger, less-levered fund worth roughly 9% of the value since end-April. Latest news follows whippy day for broader mortgage market; one particularly wobbly slice of market tracked by closely watched index called ABX fell to all-time low of 44. Credit derivative indexes wider with investment-grade credit derivative index - broad measure of credit risk actively traded by investors - out 2 bps to 46 bps. "People are looking at what they have and are reassessing the risk," says analyst; "nothing in our market is risk-free. The question is, how low is that risk?"

Syd 22:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 22:26 GMT not a worry , wonder if that can affect the yen and carry, just hearing early morning squawk could cause yen rally due to cutting shorts, appreciate any views on that from anyone

Manchester st 22:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh pa 22:33 GMT July 17, 2007
13595

pittsburgh pa 22:33 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Any Eur/Usd targets for the week? Anyone?

USA Zeus 22:29 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 20:28 GMT July 17, 2007

Mrs Z forgives. She understands that 1.3777 when the HAT is on the market listens.

dc CB 22:26 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd, didn't read down just came over and posted...should have known you'd beat me to it.

Syd 22:19 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
SD Expected To Benefit From Bernanke Speech

USD supported by easing of concerns that sub-prime mortgage sector meltdown will hurt earnings of U.S. financial institutions, says nabCapital head of currency strategy John Kyriakopoulos. Expects Fed's Bernanke's semi-annual testimony tonight could help USD as he'll likely reiterate that inflation is primary concern rather than much weaker economy and also play down potential for sub-prime mortgage woes to put large dent in economy.

dc CB 22:18 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
BSC Bear Stearns: Moody's puts BSC Alt-A trust and bonds review for possible downgrade; says Alt-A deliquencies higher than anticipated-- BBerg -Update- briefng.com

dc CB 22:16 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The sound of a Shoe Dropping: from briefing.com

BSC Bear Stearns: Two Bear Funds nearly worthless Investors told-- WSJ (139.91 -0.40)

The WSJ report sthat, weeks after the meltdown of two prominent Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds that bet heavily on the market for risky home loans, the brokerage has told the funds' investors that the portfolios' assets are almost worthless, according to people familiar with the matter. The assets in Bear's more-levered fund, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, are worth virtually nothing, according to people familiar with the matter. The assets in the larger, less-levered fund are worth roughly 9% of the value since the end of April, these people said. The April valuations were not immediately available, but in March, before their sharp losses, the enhanced leverage fund had $638 million in investor money, while the other fund had $925 million. The WSJ is reporting that sources said Bear disclosed this information to investors earlier today and is expected to make a statement this evening. A spokeswoman for Bear did not return calls for comment... stock is trading at $136.02 in after hours.

Syd 22:14 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD's uptrend increasingly is limiting inflation pressures and weakening case for any near-term RBA rate hike, says Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist and RBA-watcher Rory Robertson.

Syd 22:01 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:49 GMT agree, your mention of traders holding from 87.50 , however I recall last time it was at lofty levels I bought on a dip but continued , broker said no problem going much higher but we all know what happened next, a lesson in the making for me , everything is at decade highs and the smart money would be saying buy dollars and sit on them same as Yen , as with the aud on the low and the Euro at 82 what the song ,There is a season (turn, turn, turn)

Syd 21:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
WSJ:Two Bear Funds Nearly Worthless, Investors Told -Sources
Weeks after the meltdown of two prominent Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) hedge funds that bet heavily on the market for risky home loans, the brokerage has told the funds' investors that the portfolios' assets are almost worthless, according to people familiar with the matter.

The assets in Bear's more levered fund, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, are worth virtually nothing, according to people familiar with the matter. The assets in the other larger, less-levered fund are worth roughly 9% of the value since the end of April, these people said. The April valuations weren't immediately available but in March, before their sharp losses, the enhanced leverage fund had $638 million in investor money, while the other fund had $925 million.

The two funds have been in the spotlight for weeks after suffering heavy losses in the subprime market. Late last month, Bear helped stabilize the less-levered fund with a $1.6 billion secured loan; the enhanced fund began trying to unwind its remaining $1.1 billion in debt.

Bear disclosed this information to investors earlier Tuesday and is expected to make a statement Tuesday evening, these people said. A spokeswoman for Bear didn't return calls for comment.

These losses, which took more than two weeks to calculate because of the fluctuating values in the market for risky, or subprime, mortgage securities, came amid another tumultuous day for the broader mortgage market. One particularly wobbly slice of the market tracked by a closely watched index called the ABX fell to an all-time low of 44.

Sydney ACC 21:49 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd, I hold on to the belief that the RBA will not increase again until next year.
There is another report in today's SMH highlighting the stretched finances of many Australians. What this article doesn't mention is the flow of savinmgs into superannuation. The tax advantages of super creates a disincentive to any long-term cash investor.
Looking ahead it probably any change may not atke place until March next year.
On the Aussie it just looks so strong, take this morning for instance it traded at 0.8717 an hour ago now its back in the 30's or should I also add the USD looks so weak. In a normal market anyone long at 0.8750 would have probablky cut by now but with the current trend they can realistically hold on for the market to trend back.
All the USD data points to a resurgence yet it has been unable to rally. All these postings about shorting currencies like cable at current levels for 2.0000 on present evidence seem destined for failure.
I read one report yesterday about 10 year treasury bonds going to 5.5% it may take that to push the USD index back up above the previous support level.
For me I can't bring myslef to trade at these levels I can't buy because I have been conditioned by the market since the float and i remember what happened the last time we approached 90 cents how quickly it descended - but then as IO said earlier this is a different paradigm, I can't short it either because I am not that stupid.
I will wait for Bernanake's testimony and the US CPI.

GVI john 21:45 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 21:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:09 GMT many thanks for that it puts everything in perspective, my feeling is that with interest rates ever increasing also, at some point we are going to see a slowdown of some sort , and here could see other parts of the economy slip into recession , saw earlier report Bloomberg the Japanese are looking at other ways to fund their carry trades, like the currencies overshoot so do the interest rates cycle which will be more brutal especially for NewZealand over 8% which will herald the top in my view seems RBNZ trying to prepare the market without being to blunt about it.

Sydney ACC 21:09 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:35 GMT July 17, 2007
The mining and agricultural industries are important to Australia. They are two of the three major foreign exchange earners for Australia. The majority of our people are not employed, however, directly or indirectly in these indutries. Many are employed in nthe third - tourism.
I look at the rate and I see a comparison with 2001 when AUD plumbed the lows against USD at 47 cents. At the time Australia was derided as being an old state economy. we didn't have the glossy new IT industries to teh extent the US had. Well we know the end of that story. But where I draw the comparison is that just as the market overshot on the AUD on the downside it is hjust as capable on the top side as well.
The difficulty in this situation is what is fair value for AUD. Previously we held that to be in the low 70's, but given the changed paradigm of higher energy, basic metals and other hard commodity resources coupled with the prices now obatianble for our soft commodities that level has changed. What hasn't changed is the fact we still run a huge current account deficit and the benfit from the resources onlky filters down so much.
we need to maintain a balance in our economy so that as many as possible benefit. its no giood selling everything we take out of the ground at top dollar if at the same time the market makes it so expensive for tourists we choose alternatives for their holiday.
AUD is likely to push higher it has all the hallmarks to suggest it will. Over teh last month its put on nearly four cents, this year it has strengthened by over 10% against the USD>. While it is likely to go higher one of the major supports for the currency finishes today, that is teh Rinker takeover. That provided demand for up to AUD 16 billion since the takeover was recommended by the Rinker board in April - sufficient demand to service the deficit for that interim period.
What's next - China's new investment authority may take equity in BHP and Rio. It all just rolls on.

Syd 21:06 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Market enthusiasm for Sterling will remain strong in the short term with expectations of further Bank of England interest rate increases. The UK currency is, however now looking dangerously overvalued given that the economy is liable to deteriorate
The higher than expected inflation data will maintain expectations that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates further to curb inflation pressure, especially as the high RPI rate will tend to increase upward pressure on earnings. These expectations will provide near-term Sterling support.
Wider carry trade influences will remain very strong with the UK currency gaining ground if there is further global interest in high-yield assets, especially in view of the inflation data. Overall volatility levels, however, are liable to be higher in the short term. The UK fundamentals are also likely to deteriorate with the housing sector liable to show evidence of very serious stresses as debt concerns intensify.investica.co.uk.


milan tom 20:55 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
seems next target GBPUSD is 2.05 IMHO

Wellington, N.Z. 20:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for WEDNESDAY-JULY 18th:

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 20:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 18:25 GMT good morning your right, its like saying the Kiwi is at its correct level here, wish is censored

The Netherlands Purk 20:28 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
OOps there is that 137777 again and it is staring at me like a HAT with eyes in the middle.
I am off, cant take no more of that 137777.
Censored... Sorry mrs. Z.

Mtl JP 20:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
from another newsblip:

Hoening: "As you look at the economy and you weigh these risks right now, I can make a case for ... both an easing or tightening as you move forward," said Hoenig, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2007" - Bloomberg

Deer in headlights ?

Mtl JP 19:52 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
e-mail from KS Fed media relations: "No speech text is being posted today". sooo...

KC Fed's Hoenig: Fed right to focus on core prices - Bloomberg

Fed's Hoenig Foresees Modest Economic Growth CNBC

melbourne DC 19:15 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Did Hoenig signal a fed ready to acknowldge 2way risk on monetary policy ?

Bahrain Bahrain1 18:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds....
With BOE minute tom.
Cable should make correction at least 50/70 pips before any new rally. We might see this at London open tom.
Good trade all.

Sydney ACC 18:25 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil-Man

I agree with regard to the AUD and the other comnmodity currencies we are in a different paradigm, a coming together of prices for soft and hard commodities that we have not seen in a generation.
In some respect what we are witnessing is similar to conditions that prevailed in 1974, the withdrawal from Vietnam, the end of gold convertibility, the float and depreciation of the dollar,increasing inflation, high commodity prices.
IF you want rates I'll give you rates from 1974:
AUD/USD 1.4875
AUD/JPY 442.64
AUD/GBP 0.6252
AUD/NZD 1.0279

But we were in a different world then, the AUD was tied to the USD still nine yeras away from the float and more importantly almost 33 years of accumulating CPI differentials.
At 85 cents 95% of this country's manufacturing industries are uncom0petitive, needless to say incoming tourism. We doi, however, need to think outside the square even at these levels.

bbsapul 18:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 17:01 GMT July 17, 2007
Short GBPUSD 2.0490/2.0530 Target 2.0000/1.9975
Short AUDUSD 0.8735 Target 0.8328
Short nzdusd 0.7910 Target 0.7642


No stops?

USA Zeus 17:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Ahhh oil just had another $ swing. So far on a triple range crush today!

The Netherlands Purk 17:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The loonie is doing the Queen song: I want to break free... isnt that the one with the vacuumcleaner?

The Netherlands Purk 17:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Lets see if the bugger can hit 16838 and than do the tick tick to the high again.
Always fun in the JPN currencies.
Long short, long short, bit dizzy mans band here...

Cali mmm 17:17 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Tks Oilman.

USA Zeus 17:14 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Ahh yes well that 1.3777 thingy still works.

dc CB 17:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
NAHB Housing Index falls to 24 vs 28 consensus; lowest level since Jan 1991

ABHA FXS 17:01 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Short GBPUSD 2.0490/2.0530 Target 2.0000/1.9975
Short AUDUSD 0.8735 Target 0.8328
Short nzdusd 0.7910 Target 0.7642

Monaco Oil Man 16:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I am still in the contra trade, though by definition contra = small leverage....quite unimportant in the grand scheme of things..
----
Just looked at the charts on the OZI...
Sometimes the forest around us makes itself invisible, and we only see 1 tree...
AUDUSD year 1981 = 1.1930...
Lots of room to go before it gets above that..
Now i understand the NZD guy , taken at the throat said "Overnight, New Zealand's finance minister, Michael Cullen, said that the NZD was overvalued and that the currency will correct itself. Also, Cullen warned that investors should protect themselves against this correction and be realistic about the risks they are taking on their portfolios"...But the facts are the same...NZD is at 8% , JPY is around 0..Nothing is going to change that unless he starts cutting rates..
He cuts rates he has the G8 on him, and NZ isn't China, they'll burn him at the stake for witch craft and currency manipulation...

Looking at $CHF 1.1970--1.2060 for 2 weeks, the USDX , we're either in front of another collapse , or a bounce of the US$..Looking back the last few years, the path of least resistance is ....Still with US$ going even lower..

Something to think about , even though , i'm currently playing around with long $'s position $CHF 1.1970 will ring the alarm bells...

Mtl JP 16:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
on deck:
17:00GMT - July NAHB Housing Market Index mrkt: 27 vs 28
17:00GMT - Fed’s Hoenig speaks on the U.S. economy

ABHA FXS 16:40 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hi all,
======
Short AUDJPY 106.85 Target 105.17
Long EURAUD 1.5777 Target 1.5927
Short EURJPY 169.00 Target 167.77
Short USDJPY 122.78 Target 121.15
Long USDCAD 1.0431 Target 1.0559
Short GBPCHF 2.4665 Target 2.4478

Shenzhen Laowen 16:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:32 GMT July 17, 2007 //

Thank you mate for your update. I trvelled a lot today and already closed my Kiwi shorts @0.7913 before I flew. The situation you described also happened to me often. Stop setting is very difficult. GL and GT.

Cali mmm 16:16 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, do you still see a short oportunity on gbpjpy given recent price action? or are you out of that earlier contratrade?TKS.

PAR 16:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
French minster for Europe says european policymakers shouldn t be naive about exchange rates and that euro zone countries face an ever increasing competitive disadvantage due to an undervalued yen , yuan and dollar .

hk ab 15:57 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
will add dlr/jpy short every 30 pips up, next adding point 122.55, 123

USA Zeus 15:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
oops- wrong forum. supposed to be in futures...sorry 'bout that.

USA Zeus 15:50 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
trading oil on the smooth as butter price transitions- sometimes what is simply too easy can't be passed by. LOL

madrid mm 15:40 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
It is all in the price action.
One imporant lesson -
Trade What You See, Not What You Believe.

GVI Jay 15:39 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
AFX (now TFN) has a good report looking ahead to tomorrow's data, which includes the BOE minutes. If anyone wants to see a copy, send me an EMAIL

PAR 15:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Toyota planning to increase Japans attraction as export paradise to emerging countries by lobbying for weaker yen .

hk ab 15:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
laowen, I have a very tough situation for the WHOLE week, which is, whenever, I enter a position, it keep going near my stops and finally my direction came and right after I grab a pip or 2 , then it moves to my original plan fast. so, want to test it out again, I exit all kiwi shorts here and if it helps, gl to you.

HK 15:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
thank you guys!

hk ab 15:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I think many haven't read the "change of vehicle" news in bloomberg.....

UK Alex 15:00 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
HK 14:56 GMT July 17, 2007
BOE expected to be more aggressive in its tightening cycle after CPI and RPI beat expectations.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:14 GMT July 16, 2007
GBP/JPY The monthly cycle projected series suggests that the market has potential to trade between [248.04] - [255.63]. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle 249.68 which is a significant level in my system. The monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that 249.68 and 252.97 have the same frequency numbers and this would suggest that once the market can establish itself above 249.68, it can easily move ahead towards 252.97. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below [248.04] and downside targeting points are 243.10 and 245.38.

HK 14:56 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
what causes cable yen to fly?

hk ab 14:53 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
kiwi is kidnapped in a tight range.

melbourne DC 14:49 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man 14:45 GMT July 17, 2007
good morning/afternoon .. saw your breaish stance on gbp .. what impact r u looking from the lugovoi UK/russian situation ? thx.

Monaco Oil Man 14:45 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:55 GMT July 17, 2007

Right on!

london av 14:45 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
oil man, any views on dlr/chf at these levels? i'm looking to short to break 11970

UK Alex 14:39 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Letter from Caracas

Mtl JP 14:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:47 / chances are market may start to get impatient with the lies between inflation and price movement.

dlr index at The Economist showing food price-inflation ytd 21% (ref JP 13:59 July 13) looks like it may not be off the mark afterall:

Rising Food Prices May Give Bernanke, Central Bankers Heartburn - bloomberg

"... It is also sowing doubts about the U.S. Federal Reserve's focus on core inflation, which excludes food and energy, and about China's gradual approach to tightening credit.

As Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke prepares to deliver his semiannual report to Congress this week, central-bank officials worldwide are anxious that climbing costs may trigger consumer concerns about faster inflation. To keep them from being self- fulfilling, some of the biggest economies might have to push interest rates higher.

``Central banks are more conscious than they've ever been of the danger of allowing inflation expectations to become unmoored,'' says Louis Crandall, chief economist at Jersey City, New Jersey-based Wrightson ICAP LLC, a unit of ICAP Plc, the world's largest broker for banks and other institutions that trade in financial markets.

An unprecedented surge in global demand is behind the 23 percent rise in food prices that the International Monetary Fund recorded during the last 18 months. ``We haven't seen anything on this scale before,'' says Martin von Lampe, an agricultural economist in Paris at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. ..."

--
Bernanke to stress price worries before Congress

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to tell Congress this week the central bank is more worried U.S. inflation will flare than it is that housing market turbulence will seriously damage the economy.

USA Zeus 14:26 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Well yes Crude is now 75.15-
three cheers!

hk ab 14:16 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
short 122.290

hk ab 14:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
exit all dlr/jpy long @ 122.28

UK Alex 14:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
$/yen appears to be benefiting from renewed interest in cross buying.

hk ab 14:00 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
this fight at 122.35 is enormous and vital. Think it's a kind of option guarding activity.

UK Alex 13:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Russia has decided to keep its powder dry and not expel any of our diplomats (for now).

melbourne DC 13:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:49 GMT July 17, 2007
having said that ... maybe the censored tech note time is running out ... since bottoming out below 1.33 e$ has pattern of consolidate a few days ... then jump on the 5th or 6th day into new consolidation range. tomorrow is the 6th day:))
but for today .. should be more reasonable , given the the data n reaction , just range the 40pips range.

melbourne DC 13:55 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:49 GMT July 17, 2007
don't even get me started on that ... their tech was asking ppl to fade saying 1.38 is topping, then their other team announced clients posn extreme short and calls for bullish price. they must have a devious plan to fry us small fry :)) only believe those who put their money where their mouth is .. the sovereign players. or they put the money, and let other's mouth do the talking .

UK Alex 13:55 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:51 GMT July 17, 2007
Cheers. Been busy with other projects which I'm having a day off from today.

hk ab 13:54 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
soon, I can move my trail to 30.....

hk ab 13:53 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I think it's time for some risk averse play, long PMs, short commod/jpy.....

The Netherlands Purk 13:53 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: still no interest of bigger parties to long, so it is waiting on tonight if the FMIB will decide to give it another bash.

hk ab 13:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Alex//welcome back, where have you been?

Dont' miss this dlr index 80 action....

london av 13:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
usd/chf any comments? will this go below 11970?

The Netherlands Purk 13:50 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Bugger: the tick tick to the high story kicked in just now. So shorters who are desperate and can not wait, just wait for the high, PLOL. 16895 to beat, than 16912, than 16944.
Downside might be far away but i suspect that their are some very large parties waiting for that 16912-44 thing again...
Range: almost 90, and still some time left. Just another zone.

Remember what i said yesterday: market just finishes of what it did not finish yesterday...

Halifax CB 13:49 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:45 GMT July 17, 2007
shocking ... Fx cm tech now drop their bearish 1.38 topping stance :))

They almost have to; over 70% of their clients are short :)

UK Alex 13:48 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Some rumours were doing the rounds over the 8th bank on that list today.

hk ab 13:47 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Does that TICS make such a huge impact? I doubt, I think it's the CPI tomorrow which is the evil.

melbourne DC 13:45 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Commentary: We are looking for a larger correction of strength in the near term, but upside potential remains. It looks like a complex correction is unfolding from the 1.3813 high (a-b-c-X-a-b-c, labeled W-X-Y). The correction is either complete at 1.3756 or will continue lower towards congestion at either 1.3731 or 1.3700. A cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.3756, since it is possible that the mentioned complex correction ended at 1.3756.
Strategy: Flat

shocking ... Fx cm tech now drop their bearish 1.38 topping stance :)) rather pay more attn to talk of soreign buying mid1.37 , real or rmr :))

UK Alex 13:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx

USA Zeus 13:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I remember the same price/attractor relationship last year when EUR/USD hinged and wobbled around 1.2777.

melbourne DC 13:40 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
1328 GMT [Dow Jones] The higher-rated triple-A tranches of the subprime-mortgage based ABX index were in "free-fall" on Monday, according to a note from Bridgewater. In spread terms, the risk premiums on this tranche have gone up to 440 bps from 9 bps, the note says, pointing out that "the majority of that move occurred in the last two trading days." The price action suggests "a player, larger than the Bear Stearns funds that blew up in June, is going bust," the note says. In price terms, the triple-A tranche is trading at 94 cents on Tuesday morning. On Monday, it was at 95 cents. (ASH)

HK Kevin 13:38 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:11 GMT, limit order short USD/JPY at 122.55, stop slightly above 123. Need to go, time for my daughter.

USA Zeus 13:37 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 13:31 GMT July 17, 2007 yes- for fun. as day after day the supermagnet pulls any deviation right back to the strange attractor. But, that will change soon and become a good marker- like a pivot as price moves away from it.

UK Alex 13:37 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:34 GMT July 17, 2007
ab, as long as euro/gbp doesn't fall too far, you won't hear any complaints.

hk ab 13:34 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
we hear complaint from eu that e/j is too high but never g/j.... when will they feel the pain?

bbsapul 13:31 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
zeus:
what for? just for fun?

pittsburgh pa 13:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Weekly target in Eur/Usd anyone?

hk ab 13:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
trail up by 10 pips again.

USA Zeus 13:26 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Anyone draw a horizontal on their EUR/USD chart at 1.3777?
LOL

San Juan Lil 13:25 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
.........that is assuming it can make it to 1.23 !!

San Juan Lil 13:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
In mvvho since $JPY did not make a monthly lower low when it had the chance, it could now make a higher high. GL

hk ab 13:21 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I am very curious of not seeing any holidays exit at all on majors....

Syd 13:18 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
US Jun Industrial Production +0.5%; Consensus +0.5%
US Jun Capacity Util +0.3-Pt At 81.7%; Consensus 81.6%
US May Industrial Production Revised To -0.1% From Unch
US May Capacity Use Revised To 81.4% From 81.3%


hk ab 13:11 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//long was based on 4hr chart.

HK Kevin 13:10 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:06 GMT, need to watch nast week's high 122.60. No trade atm.

hk ab 13:06 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
If plan goes smoothly, can SAR heavy at 123.

hk ab 13:05 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
trail to 122.10

Cambridge Zoltan 13:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
USD TIC 126B

hk ab 13:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
protective stop move to 122.00

Monaco Oil Man 12:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:54 GMT July 17, 2007

Don't see why JPY would firm up suddenly...Could happen , but till it does, better think it's not happening..I can swim under the current, but THAT current is too strong to swim against...

Only change in carry i can see , is EUR I% going higher than US I% , making E$ a carry!

hk ab 12:54 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
oilman, what do you think about possible switch of carry boat in the near future?

dc CB 12:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Goldman, JPMorgan stuck with debt they can't sell to investors - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com reports that Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the rest of Wall Street are stuck with at least $11 billion of loans and bonds they can't readily sell. The banks have had to dig into their own pockets to finance parts of at least five leveraged buyouts over the past month because of the worst bear market in high-yield debt in more than two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show... As the market began to turn sour last month, Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH) and Wachovia (WB) had to buy $725 mln of bonds that Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based Dollar General Corp. was selling to finance Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. purchase of the company for $6.9 bln. Those bonds are probably worth 94 cents on the dollar, or $43.5 mln less than when they were sold on June 28, according to Justin Monteith, an analyst at high-yield research firm KDP Investment Advisors in Montpelier, Vermont. KKR completed the acquisition of Dollar General on July 9.

Johannesburg Andre 12:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis
Did not know the forum is not for "newbies",at least the pair is going now.

Monaco Oil Man 12:44 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:37 GMT July 17, 2007

Volatility is good!

This GBP might keep running till 2.0550 if E$ doesn't move down from here...Insane..Yes..but FX is FX?

manchester st 12:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp/jpy sell @[email protected]

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:37 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man, yes the world IS crazy but when all of the "newbies" who have to ask all the "why's" and "what should I do's" don't have a clue, don't you think there is a serious risk of omplosion?

Monaco Oil Man 12:34 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Note this one though (out from the insane world):


Monaco Oil Man 12:29 GMT July 17, 2007
Here at 2.0462 GBP$ looks attractive as a short.

GT!

Monaco Oil Man 12:33 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:30 GMT July 17, 2007

LOL...

FX is just a reflection of the world in action...Look the news...You see anything NOT insane?..People blowing themselves in bus's , Pollution running all over the place, Commodity are running into shortage, and the masses keep doing what they know...staying Insane.
GT.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Has the fx world gone completely insane?

All of these post's re: "why hasn't EUR/XXX gone up?" Have you stopped to look at a chart and see how far it has gone in the past month or so? Is every trade a "sure-thing", one-way bet?

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
potential event risk catalysts:
US - PPI, IP and Capacity Utilization, on deck today

Johannesburg Andre 12:29 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
London HC
Thank you very much,does this mean that we have seen the high at 168.95 or will it be tested again?

Monaco Oil Man 12:29 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Here at 2.0462 GBP$ looks attractive as a short.

GT!

pittsburgh pa 12:26 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
So will the Eur/Usd catch up with the Gbp/Usd? Anyone?

Gen dk 12:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London HC 12:21 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
ANDRE - IT IS CALLED THE CARRY TRADE the market does not want to give up on.

Johannesburg Andre 11:55 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   

Does anybody know why eur/yen is lagging behind

Syd 11:48 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The mortgage fees that have soared by 600% in two years
Homebuyers are being lured into taking up what appear to be good value mortgage deals only to be stung with huge fees.
Some leading lenders have increased their arrangement fees by more than 600 per cent in the last two years.
Banks and building societies can manipulate where they appear in best-buy tables by appearing to have low interest rates.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=468881&in_page_id=1770

Syd 11:40 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Video of the looming Spanish bust
The Spanish economy will be devastated.
20-40% of the government's income comes from housing related taxes.
The spanish housing minister won't comment at all.
How many Brits have remortgaged back home to buy in Spain
Germany's economy is going from strength to strength and will see even more EUR rate rises.
It is a catastrophe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6900000/newsid_6902100/6902120.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1

GVI john 11:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

hk ab 11:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
laowen, lighten some kiwi short here.

Como Perrie 11:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
July 22, Turkish elections.

Yesterday, the BBC reports, a candidate was shoot dead in Istanbul.

Kaunas DP 11:01 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
shorted GBP/USD 2.0448 TP 2.0300 in 16h tme frame - GL

Monaco Oil Man 11:01 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
JPY:
Looking at this GBPJPY , it's definitely not a good short.
However you want to look at it , same as EURJPY , they are still in Buy on dips mode....Same as ALL jpy crosses...Going against the current might work, but chances of drowning are superior than swimming easily with the current.

Good Luck.

hk ab 10:59 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
after serveral fingers burnt by gbp short tops, learnt not to run infront of the train but be patient.

Mumbai NS 10:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Gud i gave a tight s/l on stgyen otherwise wuld have got quite sqeezed no point trying for tops at the moment that's the way it is gl gt

hk ab 10:56 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dlrchf and dlrjpy are doing their usual dead cat bounce to clear as much as shorters could before few hundred pips run.

hk ab 10:56 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy long position protective stop 121.90 for now.

Oilman, thanks very much for the sharing. The dlr/jpy and dlr/chf definitely are drawing lots of attention.

THat article re changing the vehicles of carry is very interesting. Just wonder if Singaporean dlr can tolerate from the yen flux......

Probably, kiwi might be switched too if 26th July is not a hike.

Monaco Oil Man 10:48 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 10:38 GMT July 17, 2007

I closed all positions a few mnts ago...(GBP/CAD, AUD/NZD, NZDUSD, $CHF, CLQ7).
Did not have ANY GBPJPY...Can't invent the trades...
As to your question 249.70 should hold today...

GL.

melbourne DC 10:38 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
17 Jul 2007 20:33 AUSEST DJ German Govt: Europe Should Consider Protecting German Indus
BERLIN (Dow Jones)--The European Union should considers ways in which to protect German as well as other European industries from foreign buyers, a spokesman from the German government said Tuesday.

Ramat Afal SBS 10:38 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, what is your target for long GBP/JPY ?

many thanks for reply.

Monaco Oil Man 10:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
prague mark 10:03 GMT July 17, 2007


Preferably let the GBPUSD do it's top before even trying...Even if i miss out the top from 20 pips, it might continue even 80 pips from here..Or more...This is GBP..

GT.

madrid mm 10:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Carry Traders in Asia Look for Alternative Bets: Andy Mukherjee -

"A big dose of global risk aversion may yet cool the ardor of carry traders, though for now it looks like the soap opera will continue with new actors replacing old ones."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNnOKO1MsEm4&refer=home

prague mark 10:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man 09:55 GMT July 17, 2007

we dive from here - take your ticket - GL

Monaco Oil Man 09:55 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
AB:

Might go to the target(1.16), but before it does it needs to break the 1.1970 on a daily close...
No GBP shorts atm, but just long it's crosses..The Puppy is a naughty one, and WILL eat every short stops before it does the olympic summer patented Dive (old expression from our friend , Gecko).

GT and GL , AB.


hk ab 09:49 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
RF//I agree with the dive, but cane we kindly have a blip first? LOL.... Think 122.50-123 is still a spiking card in the coming days.

hk ab 09:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I see a run to 1.21 or near region before the march to 1.16 per your target. Comments welcome.

Monaco Oil Man 09:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Good to wake up with pips in the pocket...
GBP is always such a lovely spiker..Love the puppy and it's crazy crosses.

GT.

Mumbai NS 09:38 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:31 GMT July 17, 2007

What confusion r u talking mate culd not follow gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 09:31 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
prage mark 09:06 GMT July 17, 2007

Beast = GBP/JPY, may confuse people here. And we dont want that do we? Loonie seems to struggle to make it to 10470.

PAR 09:24 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
German industry finally starting to be impacted by strong EURJPY. Contrary to Merkel , Sarkozy seems to be having the correct feeling on the european economy .

Syd 09:19 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Could Become Short-term Capped
Axel Rudolph, MSTA

The currency pair could be short-term capped around the US$0.8750 area though, as the rapid advance over the past week has been very steep on the daily chart. It's normal for minor corrections to kick in while profit taking occurs before new upside impetus can be found.

In case of a minor retracement lower, Monday's US$0.8696 low, together with the upper trend channel line, currently coming in at US$0.8631 and sloping upwards by three ticks a day, are likely to hold the cross.

Mumbai NS 09:13 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sold stgyen here 249.15 s/l gl gt

prague mark 09:13 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
NY will take ot cables 2.0348 and then w go like 300pips down till the end of the month - GL

Sydney ACC 09:13 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
In a repeat of March (letter), CPI inflation came in on the high side of expectations - and for the same reason - an unexpectedly large rise in furniture & furnishings in June in order to maximise the price 'cuts' in the July sales. Without the 0.09pp from that category, we would have had the 2.3% that we were forecasting. Even so, the data were disappointing and still leave us some work to do to get to the MPC's Q3 forecast of 2.25%. - RBS Markets

prague mark 09:13 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
NY will take ot cables 2.0348 and then w go like 300pips down till the end of the month - GL

PAR 09:12 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sep bunds sharply higher after Zew. Next move by ECB will be cut .

HK [email protected] 09:10 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
It is a matter of hours more that probably Yen/USD will be around 119.50.
Just based on chart and indicators reading

prage mark 09:06 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:04 GMT July 17, 2007

so long it - LOL

PAR 09:06 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
German Zew expectations collapsing to 10.4 on the back of too high Euro and too high oil prices.

The Netherlands Purk 09:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Mark, the beast is dealing at 248,70 here...

San Juan Lil 09:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Hello everyone!
Seems the MIB have finally made their appearance!!

prague mark 09:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
today is USD day - GL

The Netherlands Purk 09:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Well just take a look at the gbp and err it is strong....
Not so long ago we where at 200 and people started shouting for a big correction (o sh. me included..) now we are 430 pooints higher already, nice.

prague mark 08:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
shorted beast 2.0415

prague mark 08:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
shorted beast 2.0415

PAR 08:39 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Rumors German ZEW may unexpectedly show strong rise to as much as 26 on the back of booming German industry .

hk ab 08:16 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
PMs are creeping lower quietly.

hk ab 08:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
should see some unwinding from nzd/chf pair.

hk ab 08:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
key hr reversal for nzd.

Wellington, N.Z. 07:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   

Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for TUESDAY-JULY 17th:



My favored FX Trade for Today is EURO/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL



Syd 07:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Downside Risks To GBP From Data - Commerzbank
Today sees the start of some influential UK data releases that have the capacity to impact on GBP, says Commerzbank. Sees risks skewed to the downside from CPI, the MPC minutes and retail sales. Says CPI is expected to continue its rapid decline from +3.1% in March to +2.4% in June, while a +2.3% reading will mean the BoE's quarterly forecast of +2.52% has almost been met. Wednesday's retail sales release (seen +0.3%) has downside risks from the wet weather, while the July MPC minutes are expected to produce a 8-1 or 7-2 vote split, although a more divided result is possible. Overall, these events will have little long-term effect on sterling, but from the current lofty levels could create short-term weakness

hk ab 07:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
think short nzd/chf or nzd/jpy is the right play.

Syd 07:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said last week he expects consumer prices to rise. Tuesday's results are almost in line with bank's views on the future course of Japan's prices.

Syd 07:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Most Japan Economists Expect BOJ Hike In August
Most economists expect BOJ to raise policy rates in August right after July 29 Japan election on sustainable economic recovery, suggests report from Economic Planning Association, a government-affiliated organization.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY: As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is able to trade above the barrier at 115.94 // 116.48. A projected resistant point is positioning at 117.55. The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 115.94 // 116.48* - 117.02 - 117.55 - 118.09 - 118.63* - 119.16 - [119.70]

Bodrum OEE 06:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Çeşme 10:56 GMT July 16, 2007


Thank you NYAM. Regards

Syd 06:54 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
As long as EUR/CHF holds below 1.6587, the currency continues to look vulnerable to correct lower and test its 4-month uptrend support at 1.6531, says Commerzbank. This in turn implies that a 1.6531/1.6587 narrowing range dominates near-term, as the market exhibits signs of upside exhaustion or reversal, brokerage says. Further out, 1.6531 is under pressure to break and confirm that a corrective phase has begun, and EUR/CHF risks testing a key support at 1.6415/20, which are the respective lows from May and June. For Tuesday, Commerzbank recommends short trades at 1.6572, keeping stop at 1.6587, and covering on dips to 1.6531 "for now.

hk ab 06:53 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dlr index is v. dangerous though. just 50 pips away from 80 marks.

hk ab 06:48 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
add a bit more dlr/jpy long here 76, same stop.

Gen dk 06:14 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 05:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Oh I forgot: Happy day and Happy trades!

The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:31 GMT July 17, 2007

FFFFF... is this that James de Wett guy? I have read all about that guy, and it seems (still under investigation that is) that he is not what he say he is.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:28 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for TUESDAY-JULY 17th:


Today’s Favored FX Trade:

My favored FX Trade for Today is EURO/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Hong Kong WT 05:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
One important point, why I dump usdcad now (I know I will be falling in love with usdcad again). usdjpy and cadjpy move more than 10 pips, usdcan only move 1 or 2 pip.

Hong Kong WT 05:12 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I had squared usdcan short and booked 6x pips only. It is not as most the commentary said 100+ pips profit. Watching the price movement for awhile, before jump in again. Small fish as me can feel there is no immediate direction for next trade with reasonable risk and reward ratio. Any breakthrough the support or resistant seem to be a trap or not likely has follow through.

Any other currency has movement 50 pips? Waiting the news in NY time.

Syd 04:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney Residents Urged To Prepare Terror Survival Kit


SYDNEY (AP)--Residents of Australia's largest city are being urged to create survival bags to prepare for terrorist attacks and other emergencies under a campaign launched by city council Tuesday.


USA Zeus 04:31 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
London Justinefx 04:07 GMT July 17, 2007

James- Would like to challenge you to your "pinpoint Forex money making opportunities like a laser guided missile". Let's see what you are made of. Post specific entry and exits in real time so we can see if you have the kahonas to back it up. Will you step up?

London Justinefx 04:06 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Currently: The Euro has broken above the large flag formation.
Allow for some hesitation around 1.3800, with limited dips quite possibly holding well above first support at 1.3720

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590
Weekly trend direction is Bullish.

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Key G7 system support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Syd 04:04 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9_QxBa2Z5xM&refer=home

Syd 04:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
China GDP Likely Grew Near Fastest in Three Quarters
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy probably expanded at near the fastest pace in three quarters, fueled by booming exports that exacerbated tensions with the U.S. and Europe.

Gross domestic product grew 11 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier following an 11.1 percent gain in the three months to March 31, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government will release the figure on July 19 in Beijing.

Syd 03:56 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
.US. Treasurys little moved in Tokyo vs NY close with players cautious before June U.S. CPI, Fed Chairman Bernanke comments to Congress later in week; if Bernanke testimony comes out hawkish, 10-year yield may break above recent high of 5.3%, says foreign brokerage analyst

Syd 03:54 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
NZ Equities Not As Positive This Yr Vs 2006 -AMP
NZ fund manager AMP Capital Investors says share market unlikely to offer as much of a positive environment this year as in 2006 due to high interest rate environment

Syd 03:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan May Econ Activity Drop Won't Alter BOJ
Japanese economic activity fell 0.1% on month in May, but in spite of the slight fall, the economy's outlook is positive overall, analysts say.

That means that the market expectations will remain high that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy next month after standing pat last week.Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida said the tertiary index results ought to be considered "positive" despite the negative reading, and that it didn't alter his view that the BOJ will raise rates next month.



hk ab 03:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Last night PMs move seems to be related to data release this week.

Syd 03:44 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Chinese shares down 2.36 pct amid worries of further tightening measures
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/6216750.html

hk ab 03:35 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
121.63,

bbsapul 03:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
ab:
where is your stop for usd/jpy

Shenzhen Laowen 03:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
ab, yes. It is very interesting. GL and GT.

hk ab 03:31 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
small long dlr/jpy 121.95

hk ab 03:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
laowen, I see some more steam from aussie but not kiwi.

Shenzhen Laowen 03:28 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:19 GMT July 17, 2007 //

News Group deal w. Dow Jones will hit down aussie to 8680. Mate is it a place to Long there or a target to Sell here. I am reluctant to go against the trend though.

Syd 03:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:19 me too around there,

New Brighton gvm 03:22 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 02:46 spellcheck mate - it's sober !! - its only 1.19pm here - give me time ;-)

hk ab 03:19 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
syd//am waiting 8680.

Syd 03:05 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY falls as Japan players adjust positions, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank. Tips support at 96.10, where cross likely to start rising again; last 96.52. Adds NZ Finance Minister Cullen's earlier comments on high NZD "had a little impact on the foreign exchange market".

Syd 03:03 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
News Corp Reaches Tentative Deal To Buy Dow Jones & Co
News Corp Would Pay $5 Billion For Dow Jones & Co wsj

USA Zeus 02:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 02:40 GMT July 17, 2007

Not hardly. To each their own I guess. Some hate, bich and feast on their negativity- hoping to be missionaries of anti- freedom propaganda i.e. Pelosi Reid 1,2 punch out to get nothing accomplished but point fingers and jawbone about how displeased they are as leaders but unwilling/able to do anything about it read-DEMOCRAT (see their 100 day plan LOL). Does the US need that in 2008 i.e. Billary the Beast, Feinstein, Boxer, Pelosi, Harry the Huckster Reid?

Manchester st 02:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 02:40 GMT July 17, 2007
Nice to see you posting gvm.....sobre...

New Brighton gvm 02:40 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - was your moniker 'Analyst' a few years back - your comments are very similar to those of Analyst

Syd 02:10 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:57 German economy is also slowing , from the chatter of the ECB they have no intentions of raising rates , but the more they threaten the higher the Euro goes and the less they have to do. The currency markets have become a different animal since the days of the BB havent they less predictable they have had to change their tactics

hk ab 02:05 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
It could be one of the few mornings seeing censored housewives absent to push the nzd/jpy to new high.

Sydney ACC 01:57 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:32 GMT July 17, 2007
The strings that bind the main members of EMU are starting to stretch. Germany is currently devouring the export markets of France, Spain and Italy. Germany is able to live with the strong euro, the others are finding it too constraining.
I read where Anatole Kaletsy suggested EUR could go to 1.50 but the longer term consequences would be catastrophic for European manufacturing.
EUR is at a very interesting level at present. I find it interesting it could not break above 1.3820. I heare also there are option strategies in place with strikes at every 20 points above 1.3800. There was one last week reported with a payout of USDS 16 million where one European bank sold a yard of euros to protect the trigger.
It looks to me that we need a bit of a pullback, what do you think?

USA Zeus 01:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man 01:23 GMT July 17, 2007
Well at least we are all human. At times fighting the trend works and at times it doesn't just like anything else I suppose. Dip or blip, whichever is next will help set the tone.

cheers

Syd 01:32 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I also cant see the ECB hiking rates with the Euro so strong , it would cause untold problems for Europe - they are playing the market with the smooth talk.

USA Zeus 01:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
BTW- I care less what direction the USD flows- I just trade where it goes instead of act like a prophet of prediction. Have been short USD right up to 1.3777. Now am locked and ready for the next

Syd 01:30 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man personally dont think the RBNZ will hike and where ever the Kiwi is sitting at that point, have a feeling they will come in and give it an extra kick down

USA Zeus 01:29 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man 01:23 GMT July 17, 2007


Not sure about arbitrary performance tables. One can find a time frame for tops/bottoms, 1 yr, 3 yr 50 yr asset comparisons etc. and see multiple "winners" in hindsight. One could use the lowest point from the crash of 87 for the Dow- or Oct 2002 or anything else to show a bias since figures never lie and liars never figure LOL.

GT

Monaco Oil Man 01:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:11 GMT July 17, 2007

Sure the DOW is also up...But i will refer you to the table posted before....(Link is here)...

As for me being short or long , who knows, I might have been though apart from the last 2 weeks (which have been pretty tough as actually have to fight to do gains and not sit and wait , proof that I am swimming against the trend), I have always been a fervant supporter of US$ devaluation (on which every blip must be sold for further high's..as posted before), hopefully can see a decent dip , so i can short the $ again, problem : Some people were faster than i am on the month start, and as soon as everyone took profits , never gave a dip , so 1.36 to 1.37 has been a fight to stay positive.
GL

Philadelphia Caba 01:23 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar hit a fresh 25-year high Tuesday and is significantly overvalued, but there is little the government can do about it, Finance Minister Michael Cullen said.
The Kiwi had soared to a 25-year high against the U.S. dollar at US$0.7940 after strong inflation data on Monday heightened the likelihood of a central bank interest rate rise next week.
Soon after 0000 GMT, it was buying US$0.7923. The Reserve Bank's official cash rate currently is at 8.0 percent, after four 25-basis-point rises this year to slow inflation.
Cullen said the current New Zealand dollar rate against the U.S. dollar is too high and currency investors need to realize the risk they face.
"Those people pushing money into the New Zealand dollar have to realize the correction will occur at some point and they're exposed to risk around that," he told reporters.
Cullen said when the dollar does fall it will probably fall back to an undervalued position.
But RBC Capital Markets Foreign Exchange strategist Sue Trinh said she maintains her view that the Kiwi is headed to US$0.8200 by the end of September, with upside risks.
"The market is only warming to the risk that the (Reserve Bank) will hike rates on (July 26) following (Monday's) far too strong" second quarter domestic inflation, she said.
Cullen said the high dollar was lowering the cost of imports, further fueling the country's spending binge on overseas goods.
"This country has got to shift its behavior over time away from consumption-led growth to savings and investment-led growth," he told reporters.
There was no immediate action the government could take other than to "slash and burn" spending which, Cullen said, he did not believe would work.

Dow Jones Newswires

USA Zeus 01:16 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
But more importantly as we were ALL there for those free pips and they were given to us all- what will be the next set of free pips EUR/USD 1.57 or 1.17 (seems like oil man predicted that too)? Guess if you predict all levels they all come true LOL

Monaco Oil Man 01:12 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:05 GMT July 17, 2007

think the market shifted a bit too fast on that one..

Was much better at 44% than 7X% ...Market likes to stop surprises , but in doing so creates expectations....
Which when they don't arrive create desesperation...
The market will sell NZD because they didn't hike from 8 to 8.25...At 8 it was the highest carry around, everyone wanted it , but expectations prevail...Need more..Not get = not good.

GN.

hk ab 01:10 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
I think some forces have put a lid on yen crosses.

Syd 01:05 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan Ota: Must Watch Impact Of Oil Prices On Economy
To Monitor Consumer Sentiment
Must Watch Developments In US Economy
US Economy Causing Weakness In Japan Exports



NZ money market now pricing in 72% chance of 25bp hike to 8.25% next week, shows Credit Suisse's implied interest rate pricing; this up from 44% Friday and highlights sharp shift in sentiment past few days, triggered by strong May retail sales and especially yesterday's faster-than-expected rise in 2Q CPI.

Monaco Oil Man 01:02 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:53 GMT July 17, 2007

The free pips were given from 1.25 to 1.37 (Which was the target back then)..

Current US Government and it's actions are probably more than 50% the reasoning behind the moves..(deficits being a big part...The Shameless spending JP pointed too is just the tip of the Iceberg).

Or you think the US$ went from EUR .85 to 1.37 atm under Bush mandate because Euro is more sexy?

hk ab 00:58 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy hope of 123 returns.

USA Zeus 00:51 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:46 GMT July 17, 2007

They asked for it- since Greenspan and got it. What comes next will be interesting in the full cycle of a currency's cycle...especially the global impact.

Syd 00:48 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan May Tertiary Result Positive - BarCap
Despite negative reading at minus 0.1% on month, Japan May tertiary index results should be considered "positive", says Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida. Notes negative reading just a "slight" pullback from strong April result. Adds pullback "from the strong April result was smaller than we've expected, with no subindexes recording minus for the second straight month." Adds data won't have any negative impact on BOJ's rate decision next month. In April, index marked revised +1.6%.

Syd 00:46 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:43 the Fed have to be laughing all the way to the bank with the low dollar just what the doctor ordered.

Syd 00:44 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast SA , Hi, well FWIW we could see the AUD dip to to mid 86 area prior Fed talk as he could get hawkish with the low Dollar causing inflationary pressure and oil spiking higher again , also we have the PBOC to possibly hike rates shortly , any good dips would be a buyer

hk ab 00:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
a/j got 106.50 rejected again.

USA Zeus 00:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Military Spending Boosts Economy

Vince Boberski, chief economist at RBC Dain Rauscher in Chicago said, "We really just got a pop from spending on the invasion of Iraq." The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the previous two quarters. Growth in the gross domestic product, which measures the value of all the goods and services produced in the country, is essential for job creation. Economists say GDP growth of at least 2.5 percent is needed for employment to grow.

hk ab 00:43 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Laowen, my sneaky bank quote often prevail many "incidents'. Right now, it's flagging a possible larger down move into 78xx region.

USA Zeus 00:42 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Tax Cuts Helped Economy Stay Afloat.
“The economic downturn during the Bush administration was the shortest and shallowest, and the recovery from it the most rapid, since WWII.”- Barrons

Gold coast SA 00:19 GMT July 17, 2007 Reply   
Hi Syd Can I have your views in AUD/USD?

 




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