Forex Forum Archive for 07/18/2007

Syd 23:54 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:53 imagine in about 20yrs time

Sydney ACC 23:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:49 GMT July 18, 2007
Here we go currency union again.

Syd 23:49 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Economy on 'death spiral' due to exchange rate
The New Zealand economy is on a death spiral by having a free, floating exchange rate combined with inflation targeting, according to a leading US economist.

Steve Hanke, fellow of the Cato Institute and professor at Baltimore's John Hopkins University, said New Zealand should abandon its free-floating exchange rate and peg it to a key larger currency such as the US dollar, or a basket of currencies.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452541
Cullen hints at action to stop rise in interest
5:00AM Thursday July 19, 2007
By Paula Oliver

Syd 23:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
excuse to wack the dollar

Syd 23:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:29 I agree, the joke is some big wigs in the market are using it as an excuse to wack , enabling most central banks can sit back and not worry about raising rates, as I have said before the ECB are the ones who should be worried with all the crime going on in southern Europe in the Property market , one thing about the US once it out they sort it , the problem with southern Europe they are so corrupt you have a job pinning down the culprits because they are normally the top men or women , if interest rates rise the sh.t will hit the fan - same with the UK and here

Sydney ACC 23:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Milk run won't last forever, Fonterra told

Craig Norgate says record dairy product prices are already reducing demand in some markets. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Fonterra must act quickly to secure future earnings for its shareholders as unprecedented milk powder prices force some international customers to ditch milk products, says the dairy giant's founding chief executive, Craig Norgate.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452481

Philadelphia Caba 23:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:20 GMT
Bingo! I dont think that 'subprime etc..' is a problem just for us$ .. interesting summer .. to be continued...

Syd 23:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Basis Fund On Verge Of Collapse -Rprt

Australian Financial Review says Basis Capital on verge of collapse, with lenders calling in loans tied up in the group's Basis Yield Alpha Fund, which has suffered heavy losses because of the falling subprime mortgage bond market in the U.S. Report says Basis' lenders want to protect their exposure but also avoid causing a panic that could wipe out Basis' operations and further unsettle a nervous market. So far, no other Australian invements houses have revealed major losses caused by exposure to the U.S. subprime market, but eyes on any signs of stress. S&P yesterday put rating on two Basis funds on hold. Basis not immediately available for comment

Syd 23:05 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello has exposed the bitterness at the heart of the governing Liberal-National Coalition by describing Prime Minister John Howard as a failed economic manager, the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper reported Thursday.

Syd 23:00 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Signs point to an imminent rise in China's interest rates
(Beijing Time):2007-07-17 13:32

The special bills issued last week by the central bank may signal an interest rate hike in the near term if history is a guide, industry experts said yesterday.

The People's Bank of China said on Friday that it had placed 101 billion yuan (US$13.3 billion) worth of three-year bills with commercial banks in a special issue to mop up excess liquidity. The bonds carried an annual yield of 3.6 percent.

Syd 22:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Banks predict 1-2 interest rate hikes in 2nd half
number of commercial banks predicted that China may raise the interest rate once or twice in the second half of this year. The first rate hike is expected by the end of this month.

Industry experts said they believe the government will likely impose other measures. For example, it may issue special treasury bonds and suspend or reduce the interest rate tax, alongside the interest rate rise.
http://en.ce.cn/Business/Macro-economic/200707/18/t20070718_12215347.shtml

Gen dk 22:56 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wellington, N.Z. 22:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for THURSDAY - JULY 19th:

Today’s Favored FX Trade:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

USA Zeus 22:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
steam explosion

Syd 22:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   


Como Perrie 22
only the japanese ones with the Yen chips

Como Perrie 22:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:25 GMT July 18, 2007
Very doubtful you wonder about housewives. At lest in that financial sense :))

Como Perrie 22:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
I would ask the same question the central banks allocated capital where It is how It behaves, nor pensio funds. So far here's a think some might be interested into.

HEDGE FUNDS: The latest Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey, released earlier in the day, directed a special question to hedge fund managers - "Over the past month, have you taken specific steps to increase or decrease your exposure to volatility?" The percentage of respondents who said that they had increased exposure (thought that volatility would rise) rose to 40 in July vs June's 24. Those that decreased exposure to vol rose to 17 vs 12. And, those that took no action related to volatility dropped to 34 vs 56.

------------------------------

Upper considerations of mine are: Are those guys enough experienced to understand that past volatility does not necessary shows development in future volatily. Maybe not..if they are still at such considerations of basic risk pitching, It looks they went some 30 years back in regulamentations.

Syd 22:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 22:21 just wondering what the housewives will do with their NZD carries once the RBNZ gets moving with its plan, the way the Authorities feel over there can see them doing it when least expected, see Benanke says some of these loan markets need a shakeout , same witht he carries shock tactics are the only thing that seem to work.

dc CB 22:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
"when" ...should be where.

dc CB 22:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Gives you a pretty good idea when the money will go if it turns out to be a real one.

Syd 22:22 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Explosion Not Related To Terrorism -Officials

Como Perrie 22:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:11 GMT July 18, 2007

That long the Nizie Central bank collapses or the carry trade retreat. Your choice.

Syd 22:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Explosion Possibly Involves Electrical Transformer -TV

dc CB 22:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
18:15 Manhole or transformer explosion near Grand Central; no reports of casualties, fire dept says - Bloomberg

dc CB 22:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
This just went by on Briefing.com

18:12 Building collapses near explosion in midtown Manhattan, witness says - Reuters


18:09 Explosion reported in midtown Manhattan, crowds running from scene, according to Reuters reporter - Reuters

Syd 22:11 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
How Long Can This Be Allowed To Go On?
Tuesday, 17 July 2007, 4:17 pm
The New Zealand dollar's skyrocketing trajectory, reaching record highs and creating carnage in our export sector, is an economic crisis built on a failed ideological policy prescription unsuited to New Zealand's reality, said New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters today.

“The solution to this crisis lies in addressing the nexus of this policy prescription – the ‘Primary Function’ of the Reserve Bank,” said Mr Peters
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0707/S00257.htm

Syd 22:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Europe’s Trade Balance Widens With China
Surprising officials, it was revealed today that Europe’s trade gap with China widened in the first four months of the year by as much as 29 percent to 35.2 billion euros from 27.2 billion in the year earlier comparison. In detail, imports from China grew by 23 percent in the period as exports to China rose by less, rising only 12 percent. Bearish for the Euro, the findings will further fuel recent pleas by French President Sarkozy of global trade partners to allow their currencies to weaken, helping to take speculative pressure off of the Euro as an appreciated single currency has dampened the competitiveness of Europe’s exports. “The problem isn’t the value of the Euro, but the value of other currencies…France wants to put an end to monetary dumping which leads some currencies in the world to be managed in ways that have nothing to do with the market,” Sarkozy noted in a meeting with German Chancellor Merkel earlier this week. Incidentally, Chancellor Merkel has recently come round backing the notion and stating that the G8 nations “must keep an eye” on current yuan exchange rates. Nonetheless, traders threw comments and political sentiment to the wayside, bidding the EURCNY higher to 10.4443 in the overnight session.

Syd 22:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
FX market participants "cannot ignore the increasing political backchat surrounding monetary policy and the NZD", says Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton; adds those pushing NZD/USD to new highs need to be cautious despite majority of economists tipping RBNZ to hike next week. Notes comments from NZ Finance Minister Michael Cullen referring to section 12 of RBNZ Act, which gives government power to suspend RBNZ's inflation focus: "While no one really thinks the government will actually invoke section 12, the recent raft of comments does highlight increasing political concern over the level of the NZD." NZD/USD last 0.7930.

Syd 21:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Fin Min Comment Reflect Unease Over High NZD -ANZ

Ldn 21:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Japanese reactor not quake-proof
The world’s biggest nuclear power plant, which was hit by a magnitude 6.8 earthquake, was not designed to withstand tremors of such force and might have been built directly above an active faultline, the operating company admitted on Wednesday. The revelations could trigger fresh concerns about the wisdom of building reactors in one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. More than 50 nuclear plants provide about 30 per cent of Japan’s electricity. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/37008142-3556-11dc-bb16-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 21:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
AUSTRALIANS are using more and more of their income to make mortgage repayments, with more some borrowers using 60 per cent or more of their income on home loan debt, according to a survey
Lower income earners are also struggling the most, with any more interest-rate rises threatening to cause financial havoc through forced sales of homes and repossessions
A survey conducted by NEWS.com.au and polling firm Coredata in June has found almost one in five Australians (or 18 per cent) use up 60 per cent or more of their total household income on home loan repayments.
The last time the cash rate sat at 6.5 per cent was in November 1996, shortly after Prime Minister Howard took over economic management of the economy from the Labor Party in March 1996.

Repossessions of houses has jumped this year in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne as a rising number of home owners default on mortgage repayments, set against the background of falling or stagnant house prices.

Sydney ACC 21:30 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 20:40 GMT July 18, 2007
The timing of the next move in sterling interest rates is going to be data dependent if you take MPC minutes to heart. This weeks CPI was higher than expected and this might have affected those willing to wait to see the impact of the earlier increases without both feet entrenched in the dove camp. You need to keep an eye on Kate Barker and Paul Tucker they are the two who voted for an increase that are more likely to vote against a further increase in future.
Both The Times and The Telegraph carry headlines on their web sites indicating a further increase may be deferred.
Yesterday's price action for sterling bears is a bit disconcerting, however. Cable still finished the firmly entrenched above 2.05 and firmed also against the euro. Cable has not retraced the June meeting when King voted for an increase despite knowwing beforehand the issue was lost.
I don't think cable is going to collapse, the dollar is not strong enough for that to happen. Any major reversal in sterling's fortunes probably lies in the carry trade.

Syd 21:30 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
More People See Consumer Prices Up Within Next Year: BOJ Poll : Yen Interest-Rate Futures To Climb To 1.2% Nikkei

Como Perrie 21:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Since a retreat was dollar bullish related due major budget implication for the US spending plans, thought might be of interest the following:
Republicans in the US Senate have blocked Democratic plans for a vote on withdrawing troops from Iraq by the end of April, ending an all-night debate.

Plus

Shortly after midnight*, you can see Mars rising in the East. It has a pinkish, red colour which, to the ancients, was always reminiscent of blood. Thus it became a planet associated with any activity that might involve 'spilling blood' like surgery, butchery and soldiery. As weaponry and ironmongery are also used in these professions, they came under the rulership of Mars too. So did activities that 'got the blood going', especially sports like racing, wrestling and boxing. The 'rush of blood' to a particular part of the anatomy also explains why Mars is traditionally linked to physical passion.
* Approximate local times: London, UK - 00.42; San Francisco - 01.13; Miami - 02.02; NYC - 00.51; Rio de Janeiro - 02.39; Madrid - 1.32; New Delhi - 1.45; Tokyo - 1.10; Perth - 2.56; Sydney - 3.05; Auckland - 3.22.

Syd 21:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Basis Capital In Crisis Talks With Creditors - FT
According to creditors, Basis missed margin calls on Monday for its Basis Yield Fund, and hired accountants Grant Thornton as restructuring advisers.

The Yield Fund is "understood," the FT said, to have missed margin calls on repurchase agreements, prompting several big investment banks to seize the collateral and put it up for sale.

Syd 21:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 17:39 many thanks, the website is worth keeping in favourites as it will be posted there I would imagine when RBNZ put their plan into action ,which judging from that wont be too far away.

GVI john 21:11 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Wellington, N.Z. 20:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for THURSDAY - JULY 19th:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Lagos Jarrett 20:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
I will be waiting for the change

bbsapul 20:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think cable is about to crash down?

Sydney ACC 20:33 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Bank likely to pause before further rate rises

The Bank of England is likely to take a pause before rushing to raise interest rates again after two rate hikes in the last three months, according to economists.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/18/bcnboe118.xml

USA Zeus 20:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Let's see where was that?.....Oh, right here it is-

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT May 30, 2007
Anticipate summer trading for the primaries to be much more volatile than last year.

USA Zeus 15:34 GMT May 29, 2007
Anticipate that the market will be different this summer than last. More likely to see various flow patterns on a more decent and impactful scale as the globe is significantly decoupling.

____________________________________________________
Happy Day!
LOL

Stockholm za 19:54 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   

GBP/USD .. push spike at 2,0574 damage done for 2,0621..

We are playing out the myth of “ tin summer trading “
Happy trades to all................

Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.2017,target open,stopless.

Gen dk 19:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 18:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said demand for leveraged buyout debt is drying up

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7aOfSS4q8ak&refer=us

Bon Air VA Dennis 18:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
So glad to see we have yet another "ranter" in the group. :(

USA Zeus 18:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
There are no athiests in foxholes

geneva 18:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:20 GMT July 18, 2007

There is NO free meal! many others to follow.

Como Perrie 18:27 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070718/wall_street.html?.v=39

Wall Street Snaps Rally Amid Bernanke Comments, Hedge Fund Concerns, Lower Profit Forecasts

USA Zeus 18:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Looks like oil will be a favored trade of the day tomorrow.

NYC 18:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dc Assume it is the leverage more than the value of the underlying properties that have wiped out these funds. Even properties that have been financed with sub prime mortgages have a value.

dc CB 18:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
BS, BS:
Some key sentences, translated:

The preliminary estimates show there is effectively no value left for the investors in the Enhanced Leverage Fund and very little value left for the investors in the High-Grade Fund as of June 30 2007.

Translation: You’re screwed.

At this time approximately $1.4 billion remains outstanding on this [$1.6 billion] line and we continue to believe there are sufficient assets available in the High-Grade fund to fully collateralize the repo facility.

Translation: We’re not.

In the past weeks, Bear Stearns has taken action to restore investor confidence [blah blah blah] extra layer of oversight [blah blah blah] hedge fund risk management function [blah blah blah]...

Translation: We faxed Ralphi Cioffi’s resume to (403) 217-2470.†

Our highest priority is to continue to earn your trust and confidence each and every day, consistent with the Firm’s proud history of achievement.

Translation: Thanks for playing. Please enjoy the rest of your evening.

Loadzaluvvly links, including the letter in full, after the margin call.

Como Perrie 18:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Watch Out
Tomorrow Bernanke to speak again around US opening.

NYC 18:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke:Housing drag may persist, inflation a worry

Como Perrie 18:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
small check up...

EY looks as confirming for 170

The Netherlands Purk 17:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
london av 15:46 GMT July 18, 2007

No, sorry dont trade the pair.

USA Zeus 17:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Been short USD for quite some time but late comers to the party tell me smth as EUR and GBP are near annual targets set by the wirehouses.

Some said it was difficult as they faded up and they'll be burned at the top after a flip-flop tired of the battle but ever so complacent from on high.

Van jv 17:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
sorry ..16:59

Mumbai Deepak 17:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS.....Currently the USD put INR call, with strike of 40.00, 6Mths is at 44 paise in INR. That is 1.08%.

Van jv 17:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd
thnks for NZ ref-16:49 and all your contributions which provide valuable info to many of us. ECB should read this too....
interesting part, quote:
"“The removal of the Reserve Bank interventions from the interest and NZ$ exchange rates markets will allow those markets to rapidly fall to equilibrium values, which we and others have analysed: at interest rates at least 300 basis points below current levels; and exchange rates at 55-60 US cents and 65-70 AU cents for the NZ$”, says Phil Verry.

He says, once ILSS is introduced, all interest and exchange rates will be set by the markets operating freely without the distortions of Reserve Bank interventions.

“We have reports that already the smarter currency traders in the USA are selling down their NZ$ positions, to currency traders in other regions, especially Asia, who have not yet woken up to the fact that the NZ$ is about to have a very substantial overdue correction. We are moving our own liquid reserves out of the NZ$, as in part has the Reserve Bank,” he says

Monaco Oil man 17:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
This feels a bit like 01 to 03 , when the it kept tanking with barely any blips for the US$.
With more or less every day a new high , and lower lows...Definitely could continue for a few months without a major dip.

Lahore FM 17:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
sold gold 672.70 will add 680 if seen.

Mumbai Deepak 17:34 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS....IF USD-INR breaks big time...I would be really happy. We are also holding a big USD PUT and outright short Forwards position! INR is clearly in an uptrend against the USD! I will also add on breaks!

Oilman...if you need the data for INR, then I can give it to you! Then you can tell your view better.

Patra alex 17:34 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man, may I please have your views regarding GBP/CHF?

Thanks.

Monaco Oil man 17:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The US$ looks pretty much cooked vs anything at the moment.

Syd 17:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
$/cad, sharp upside ahead ?
LINK

Ldn 17:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
A dissident Irish Republican Army bomb has detonated near the major Belfast-Dublin railway line, injuring nobody, while U.K. army explosives experts successfully dismantled a second bomb, police said Wednesday.
Police and soldiers had been searching the area since Sunday night, when telephone warnings from IRA dissidents claimed to have left bomb on the rail line. The threat appeared timed to coincide with a Belfast summit Monday involving the U.K. and Irish prime ministers, Gordon Brown and Bertie Ahern.
Police Chief Inspector Christine McCullough said both devices were "capable of causing death or serious injury." She accused IRA dissidents of making "a dangerous but ultimately pointless, cowardly and empty gesture."

GENEVA DS 17:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
thanks Monaco.... yes absolutely true... was short USDCHF intraday at 12130,, sl 12165 took it back at 12000....,,,, but this is not looking nice, but probably trend will be slow ... but bought big chunk of PUT USDINR for next 6 month... I think the dam will break big time.... nobody prepared, americans very sad with china and india.... 20 percent down before end year... any thought s there ?

Syd 17:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke: Hedge Fund Failures 'Not Necessarily A Bad Thing'
Fed View Of Bk Ties To Hedge Funds Not 'Laissez Faire'

Bandung AS 17:11 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
look for tomorrow USD/CHF, looks good to sell (fundamental and technical) maybe... :)

Monaco Oil man 17:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS
I actually sold US$ today..Didn't get my NZD 7890 by a few pips bu t got the euro's..(NZD was entry was entered after it made the low , but lots of people at the "portillon" , so did not get it).

The E$ is struggling , as $CHF holds the 1.1970 area , but as soon as it breaks , should see a fast move to 1.16..So E$ should have an acceleration to 1.40 soon.

Kinda "slow" atm..Apart from GBP.

GL.

melbourne DC 17:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 16:51 GMT July 18, 2007
ya ... saw that email earlier :)) and his 1.3773 is breached also. :)))

hk ab 16:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Then, oilman, I think dlr/chf is ok to short here.

Syd 16:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Low Rates, Low NZ Dollar, Low Inflation
The executive chairman of EROS Capital Ltd and Red Stag Timber Ltd, which operates Waipa Mill, New Zealand’s largest sawmill and timber processing plant, Phil Verry, announced today that he will be making a personal submission to the Finance & Expenditure Committee of parliament, which will shortly review the operation of Reserve Bank monetary policy.
He says the submission, of 116 pages, will present a comprehensive solution to the mounting calls for new methodology for the operation of monetary policy, to replace present policy which has become demonstrably antagonistic to the nation’s interests.


http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0707/S00328.htm

GENEVA DS 16:58 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
monaco...

thanks much, then we will see ... as you said this morning, still no chance in being contrarian in USD... one way bet and soon accelerating I guess.. gl

Monaco Oil man 16:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Would just mean $/CAD falls slowly towards parity instead of in an accelerating crescendo like the last few months...While the other guys keep running the strong marathon..

Mumbai Deepak 16:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Thanks DS.

Monaco Oil man 16:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS :

Looks nice , it's crossing on the weekly right now.

As soon as above 92 it should start flying...Meanwhile i have the same pattern on GBP/CAD..
Looks like the period of weaknesses(6-7 month) in X/cad pairs are over.

Mumbai Deepak 16:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC // That analyst which you were talking about yesterday from the brokerage (f x c m) has flipped his opinion on EUR-USD again! This time a 5 Min Chart with a E-wave count.

Ohhhhh.........These E-Waves!

GENEVA DS 16:50 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
mumbai

hey... i am only trading options in Rupeeh... and as far as I know all major swiss banks are doing options... hope that helps...

Sydney ACC 16:49 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 16:40 GMT July 18, 2007
Japanese banks are paying carry trade clients the interest differential on a monthly basis, the client receives a regular income and at the same time they can see their capital appreciate - great product!
All well and good while the sun shines on the Kiwi, however, for recent buyers there won't be much protection if it falls drammatically.

Mumbai Deepak 16:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS....where do you trade the Rupee in Swiss?? Could you email me? I have a friend in your country, who needs protection.

TIA

melbourne DC 16:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:39 GMT July 18, 2007
ya ... the mkt got their 0.8787 for now ... all the best to you n thx for your generous opinion . david.

GENEVA DS 16:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Monaco...

where do you see AUDCAD... as it is sloping slowly upwards?... would you see a medium term target of 1.00 ? thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 16:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Good night and have a nice trade.

Monaco Oil man 16:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Over bought , Over sold..

The guy who bought NZD at 76 , won't leave his place unless offered a real good price, he's earning interests, in a strong economical situation , rising rates currency.

It's frenzy , not many nzd to eat too, nzd is rising against every ccy:it's the highest paid interest "civilized" currency.

Makassar Alimin 16:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:31 GMT July 18, 2007

nice companion Kevin, hopefully it will pay good by end of the week :)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 16:37 GMT - I would prefer a pullback. I guess it is around the corner.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Mla Evan 16:35 GMT - USD/JPY : 121 - 124

melbourne DC 16:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT July 18, 2007
unless u r an overseas buyers of local asset . i already have some venting their despair at the aud rise as if it is my fault their cost of acquisition has sky-rocketed :)))

Syd 16:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Lehman issued a statement Wed. afternoon denying troubles from its business in the subprime mortgage market, calling the speculation "unfounded."

Mla Evan 16:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, how abt Usd/yen?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.8888 is a nice upside targeting point.

HK Kevin 16:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:56 GMT, we are on the same boat saling down the river.

hk ab 16:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kiwi must be very overbought not to find any stops above 7940.....

Syd 16:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ford job cuts spark aid call THE Howard Government is under pressure to dole out billions of dollars of new aid to Australia's car-makers in an urgent review of industry assistance prompted by Ford's decision to close its Geelong engine manufacturing plant.The car industry, under siege from cheaper imports and a high Australian dollar, yesterday urged the Government to undertake a policy rethink and provide extra funding to keep local manufacturers afloat.

hk ab 16:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
IT's like a hide and seek game. Test with a small amt during NY thin hour whether RBNZ is behind 7940 or not.

hk ab 15:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kiwi asking the RBNZ stick tomorrow.

Makassar Alimin 15:56 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short audjpy 106.92 stop above today's high looking for 105.38

Makassar Alimin 15:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.1998 stop under 1.1950

Lahore FM 15:49 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy from 121.82.

london av 15:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
purk, any views on gbp/yen?

madrid mm 15:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
time to look at xag/usd & xau/usd.....8+-)

bacau biz 15:43 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short Eur/USD

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
IFR bullet: GBPUSD - Market ignore minutes (BoE) focusing on Fed and sub prime.

In other words, don't confuse us with facts, let us conjure up the scenarios we desire. Nothing like playing with fire.

USA Zeus 15:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 15:32 GMT July 18, 2007

Well we found out earlier today that Dick is back so markets are in an uproar. Watch out for rubber chickens.

bacau biz 15:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kevin,Usd/jpy up 122,77;down 119,70.

hk ab 15:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
KEvin// I am waiting to see sth "unexpected":D

The Netherlands Purk 15:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The ozzie is being bought than bought again, than bought some more.
It is dollar selling now, but where is the steam for further moves? Still to come?
Surely i am watching and taking my possies.

HK Kevin 15:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, expect USD/JPY to consolidate around 121.50 and 122.50 for one more week before diving.

Syd 15:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
3 Men Arrested In Manchester Over Alleged Terrorist Activity
Police said the arrests were made after they received a tip from the public about "alleged terrorist activity and of the existence of a potential threat."

There were no links with the recent investigation into botched car bomb attempts in London and Glasgow, police said.

Ldn 15:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Rumour mongers trying to use Fed Speech to push dollar lower

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
London Misha 15:09 GMT

>>>>>>>>>>

Syd 15:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Lehman Brothers said "the notation of financial conditions and the numerous comments related to total inflation and inflation expectations provided an overall hawkish tone to the report even as (Bernanke) acknowledged a weaker housing sector. Indeed, the report can be viewed as that much more hawkish because of his willingness to downplay the housing and credit risks."

London Misha 15:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Anyone hearing any more rumours on sub prime??

melbourne DC 14:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:55 GMT July 18, 2007
yogi bear got spanking ...

USA Zeus 14:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD and EUR/USD, gold....nice positive gain from BB's testimony release....smooth as butter

USA Zeus 14:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
It just hit me listening to Barney Franks.
He doubles as yogi bear...boo boo

hk ab 14:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
we just came back to this morning except PMs

dc CB 14:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Questioning starting. Ben. On CSpan3 even though the web lists it as Greek Mythology .

http://www.c-span.org/watch/index.asp?Cat=TV&Code=CS

hk ab 14:50 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
If stox echo the move, dlr/jpy sees 121 fast

USA Zeus 14:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:55 GMT July 18, 2007
Well yes keep an eye on gold. Later we'll tell you that we told you so.

USA Zeus 04:16 GMT July 18, 2007
yes there is gold kicking a little bit now....crescendo

___________________________________________________

Yes- Well we told you so.....We aim to please.
Happy Day!

USA Zeus 14:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:32 GMT July 18, 2007

ab- Thx. Hats to you as well.
cheers

hk ab 14:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
yen crosses action starts.

and zeus you desrve the hats.

Sydney ACC 14:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke predicted American economic growth will pick up slightly next year and inflation will gradually recede.

``The U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend,'' he said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. ``Core inflation should edge a bit lower, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year.''

Same story - same result narrowing differentials against euro and widening against sterling - sell dollars.

Como Perrie 14:08 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Offeted :)) bibi

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Tomorrow and interesting day finally maybe.

NEW YORK (AP) - Stocks retreated Wednesday after Bear Stearns Cos. told investors there was little value left in two failed hedge funds, renewing concerns that soured subprime loans will wreak financial havoc on Wall Street.

Como Perrie 14:05 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
For now same story from Ben, nothing new as said earlier FED can only affirm concerns not rates anymore - unless anything exeptional happens, which seems at current state of markets must be something bigger than imagination allows.

Como Perrie 14:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Me just watching Ben and then maybe stop for today.

Mtl JP 14:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives
July 18, 2007

USA Zeus 14:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ben B- Looks market positive

Hong Kong WT 13:58 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
I start to think about usdcan now. Looking for position to jump in.

Como Perrie 13:56 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The big problem for the FED is that is currently, whatever inflation figures, trapped in a limbo of whatever decision to be a wrong decision - and the big bond market is perceiving It from some time. News not o.c.

Como Perrie 13:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Henry watching $Y 121.50 hopefully to hold after Ben in 10 min

hk ab 13:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
playing fire...... what Henry has mentioned?

London Mamun 13:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
SELL DJI

Como Perrie 13:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
$Y seems of of some significance intermediate attractor point 121.98

hk ab 13:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
once stox mkt confirmed the action, hope the housewives will not be too scared to see their "interest" vanishes in secs.

There's a time factor in carry.

dc CB 13:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
from Briefing.com:

As mentioned at 8:39 Punk Ziegel downgraded Bear Stearns (BSC) Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH) Merrill Lynch (MER) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to Sell from Market Perform. The firm also downgraded Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) to Market Perform from Sell. The firm notes it is being reported by the WSJ that insiders at Bear Stearns have indicated that the value of its two well-publicized leveraged hedge funds are close to, if not, zero. The firm does not view this as a Bear Stearns' problem but a systemic one. The firm notes they have been writing that this could happen and that the systemic protections against such a development have been removed by the market place. They note this opens investors to sizable losses which, at this moment, simply cannot be calculated. Firm says simply stated, an economy growing at the pace of this one cannot generate the income necessary to support the interest payments that are coming due on the new securities. The firm says the first sign of this is that poor people cannot pay their mortgages. The next step will be rich corporations not being able to pay for the leveraged debt that they have created.

hk ab 13:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The interestin dlr/cad just came back from the sky....

Como Perrie 13:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Gold is currently moved by other factors. So do not look and trade It for some time is better if not your primary stuff. imvho o.c.

Hong Kong Ahe 13:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:17 GMT - LOL, dear Kevin, the reporters wont say it especially about its aftermath and the repatriation of YEN.

HK Kevin 13:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:09 GMT, thank for the post. I have searched for the news and found nothing about compensation.

Hong Kong Ahe 13:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:01 GMT - compensation paid by Insurance companies or by the government. People started to move in protective shield centres both by earthquake aftermath and to avoid radioactive influence due to its pollution. News reported it was closed for inspection. There would be alot of people affected by the shortage of electricity. Japanese government may cover its aftermath as election is close.

hk ab 13:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Stox will be v. red today if no MIB mission.

HK Kevin 13:01 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 10:34 GMT, hi. What kind of compensation you are refered to?

hk ab 13:00 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The tanking of gold stocks together wtih PMs are not a conincident and yen crosses normally follow.

The game is called RISK AVERSION.

bacau biz 12:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ab,the 2.045 support area maintains a bullish bias.

Syd 12:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The euro's level against the U.S., Chinese and Japanese currencies is disproportionate to the strength of the European economy, France's Secretary of State for European Affairs said in a newspaper interview published Wednesday. "Today the problem is that the level of the euro has reached historical heights not just vis-a-vis the dollar but also the yen and the yuan," Jouyet told the International Herald Tribune.

"We are at levels where there is no relation between the strength of the economy and the currency," Jouyet said. "The Chinese are growing into a formidable economic power and their currency is undervalued.

"The growth is back in Japan and the yen is undervalued," Jouyet said.

Jouyet said France will lobby for more regular and substantive meetings between the finance ministers of the euro group and the president of the European Central Bank.

"You can influence the ECB's decisions by having a more open discussion about the motivations behind interest rate decisions," Jouyet said. "You can have those discussions discreetly and in the framework of the Eurogroup."

Jouyet denied France wants to reform the Treaty or "touch the independence of the ECB," he said.

hk ab 12:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
interesting to see gbp stays comfortably under Dr. Q 2.0489....

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:42 / deepen not Q. Widen, spill out into wider economy is. market pundits pretty hot on both sides of argument.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:49 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:48 GMT - At that time, no eye see. LOL

hk ab 12:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
One usually don't believe until they see coffins...

hk ab 12:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, gold is tanking for great accumulation?

Makassar Alimin 12:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
japanese housewives in action...tell them carry trades are over and they will prove you wrong

madrid mm 12:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
It is the Ben Bernanke & peer show soon.

IMHO "watch especially for his assessment of the housing market and whether he thinks trouble in the sub-prime market may deepen."

Hong Kong Ahe 12:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kokocity madfx 12:06 GMT - Dont put everything in one basket. Take 3 pairs as option. Like dealing with EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY. Their movement are not the same. One serves as pivot while other 2 are moving. GLGT.

hk ab 12:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
seems the dlr/chf can get stpo out

USA Zeus 12:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the market is all set for some great trading to come.

Como Perrie 12:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Actually there are some concerns in general, even if the market is still Usd bullish some from the asean retracment wich touched new record dollar lows..

*US JUNE Building Permits down 7.5 PCT TO 1.406 MLN, 10-YEAR LOW , which might add upon the subprime again.

Smelly the whole.

See Ben later. on

Bandung AS 12:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
mix data for USD, not a good day to bet :(

Syd 12:33 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
US Jun Housing Starts +2.3% To 1.467M; Consensus -1.6%

Syd 12:33 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
US Jun Consumer Prices +0.2%; Consensus +0.1%

bacau biz 12:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD:Short @ 0.7909 with targets @ 0.7884 & 0.7854 in extension.

Syd 12:27 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Remarks by a member of a European government about the independence of the European Central Bank "are not acceptable," ECB spokeswoman Regina Schueller said Wednesday.

Schueller, who was speaking on behalf of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, was most likely referring to comments made earlier this week by France's Minister for European Affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet.

Jouyet demanded Tuesday that ECB should discuss monetary policy decisions with euro-zone finance ministers. He repeated the call earlier Wednesday in an interview published by the Herald Tribune.

"Following a recent declaration by a member of a European government published this morning...the President of the ECB repeats with gravity that any attempt 'to seek to influence...the ECB in the performance of its tasks violates Article 108 of the EC Treaty and that therefore such declarations are not acceptable," Schueller said

Syd 12:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Fed Call: Overnight RP Expected; Fed Funds At 5.28%
At 8:14 a.m. EDT (1214 GMT), the federal-funds rate was trading at 5.28%, above the Fed's 5.25% target

dc CB 12:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   

WSJ reports cos are buying back their shares at a furious pace, one of the big reasons the Dow Jones Industrial Average is pushing toward 14K. The question is, how long can they keep it up? In recent weeks, cos as diverse as ConocoPhillips (COP), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) have announced ambitious buyback plans. In the first quarter alone, cos in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index spent nearly $118 bln to repurchase their shares, more than in any previous quarter. Cos have increasingly resorted to buybacks as a way to return cash to shareholders. In doing so, they have supercharged the stock mkt's rally. Many analysts and investors question how long the buyback boom can continue, and how much support stock prices can derive from buybacks over the long haul. Some cos are financing their share repurchases with borrowed money, which is likely to get more expensive if interest rates continue to rise. Meanwhile, corporate-profit growth has slowed this year, which will limit the cash available for buybacks.

Gen dk 12:18 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 12:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   

WSJ reports Countrywide Financial (CFC), Option One Mortgage and Merrill Lynch's (MER) First Franklin Financial unit told employees and mortgage brokers this week that they would no longer offer so-called 2/28 subprime loans, ones that carry a relatively low fixed rate for the first two years and then jump to a much higher, floating rate, often more than 10%. A spokesman for Countrywide said investors' demand for such loans is "very, very limited." A spokesman for Wells Fargo (WFC) said the co is "reassessing our product mix" and expects an announcement on 2/28 loans soon. Lenders sell most subprime loans to packagers of mortgage-backed securities and thus typically offer only loans that investors are eager to buy. Investors have soured on 2/28 loans over the past few months because of a surge in defaults. At the same time, regulators and rating agencies are pushing lenders to be more conservative in granting loans. Countrywide, Option One and Merrill's First Franklin continue to offer loans that start with fixed-rate periods of three years or more before "resetting" to a floating rate. Such loans are considered less risky because they give borrowers more time to improve their finances in an attempt to qualify for a less-expensive loan before facing the reset.

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kokocity madfx 12:06 GMT July 18, 2007

try equities

Global-View 12:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bc biz (and others), please use a recognizable location when posting on the forum. TIA

kokocity madfx 12:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
what to do as long as I am addicted to FX and loosing money?

PAR 12:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
US CPI figures may increase deflation fears ( especially with crude at $75 ) and then... helicopter Ben could come into action to sent the Dow to 15000.

Como Perrie 12:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
In the asean times the U.S. credit problems sparked renewed risk aversion. After the U.S. close there were two separate stories that highlighted the problems in the U.S. credit markets. Chrysler had to pay higher rates on a $12B loan to attract investors amid the unfavorable market conditions, and Bear Stearns announced that two of their home mortgage market hedge funds are essentially worthless.

bc biz 12:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Above 1.2035 look for further upside with 1.206 & 1.207 as targets?

Gen dk 12:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

melbourne DC 12:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
setup now nice for ben to move the fx :))

hk ab 11:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short a bit more dlr/chf all stops at 48

hk ab 11:56 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dlrchf v. close to the stops now.

Como Perrie 11:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bc biz 11:47 GMT July 18, 2007

Might be if US CPI shows lower readings imvho.

hk ab 11:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
mkt artificially push this a/j up for exit. short more 107.

hk ab 11:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
just shorted 1.2025. Tight s/l

bc biz 11:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ab,Short positions below 1.2035 with targets @ 1.198 & 1.196 in extension.

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 11:24 GMT July 18, 2007
I found very confirming of a target in the UsdCad around 1.01 to 1.02 with that Canadian Railroad takover.

hk ab 11:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
aud/nzd may break impt resistance soon. kiwi tighten our seat belt.

hk ab 11:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
prefer short dlr/chf rather than long eur.
now @ the attractor again

Como Perrie 11:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The bad one

Scientists say conditions are right for the zone to exceed last summer's 6,662 sq miles (17,255 sq km).

The dead zone is an area of water virtually devoid of oxygen which cannot support marine life.

It is caused by nutrients such as fertilisers flowing into the Gulf, stimulating the growth of algae which absorbs the available oxygen.

The volume of nutrients flowing down rivers such as the Mississippi into the Gulf has tripled over the last 50 years.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6904249.stm

Como Perrie 11:24 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The good news today

Water find 'may end Darfur war'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6904318.stm

dc CB 11:24 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
What's of interest in the Can CPI is: Gasoline prices fell by 4.1% during this period, the fastest decline since October 2006.

Which implies a "good" CPI number from the US.

Como Perrie 11:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
1.3820/30 appears to be a solid resitance, even if the upcoming US CPI will be closely watched imvho. Also Building permits, Housing starts and real earnings are released at the same time. This late then Ben is speaking.

Have a good summer day ahead.

Gen dk 11:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 11:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short bugger 168.40

Syd 11:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Top Iraqi In Al-Qaida In Iraq Leadership Arrested-US Command

hk ab 11:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
When is HEnry's speech?

gbp goes closeto Dr. Q point mentioned.

Gen dk 11:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 11:12 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:15 GMT July 18, 2007

Because they were watching closely the situation. Like the Japanese central bankers and Japanes mandarin from top ministry.
" We are watching closely the situation. " LOL

I guess this maybe a difference between Knowledge and intelligence......
8+-)

I believe there is an ol' US saying -

"it is not over until...." cant remember now , sorry

hk ab 11:11 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
That couldnt' be a too bad data to spook the move....

Mtl JP 11:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ab 11:02 - just out: Consumer prices rose by 2.2% in June compared with June 2006, identical to the increases in both April and May.

dc CB 11:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
CAD:

Consumer prices rose by 2.2% in June compared with June 2006
On a monthly basis, the all-items index declined 0.2% between May and June 2007.

The Bank of Canada's core index rose 2.5%, faster than the 2.2% increase observed in May.

statcan

hk ab 11:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
what's behind the dlrcad?

UK Alex 11:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Mustn't forget Bear Stearns is also facing lawsuits following the New Century debacle.

Syd 11:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Spokesman Tsutomu Uehara told reporters in Tokyo.
Inspections at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant showed 400 drums had fallen over and that lids had come off 40 of them, Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501.TO) No radiation has been detected outside the facility on Japan' northern coast, Uehara said. Tepco had earlier announced that about 100 barrels had tipped over. It has also said the nuclear plant, the world's largest by capacity, leaked radioactive water into the sea and suffered other problems.

hk ab 11:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
what 's the reason of this cad move?

Syd 10:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:52 actually saw that monday , gave triple A ratings only now to say its not our fault , sound like Bart Simpson , I didnt do it . They tried to come the heavy with Japan but they told them "on your bike"

GVI john 10:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

UK Alex 10:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:09 GMT July 18, 2007
Not all investors are so lucky as to be able to choose where their money is invested.
Subprime contagion?

Syd 10:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Tepco 400 Barrels With Nuclear Waste Tipped Over In Quake scary stuff

bc biz 10:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ok,Jay.Sorry:-)

dc CB 10:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
And another:

Women's Wear Daily reports as Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts is set to launch its IPO, the private equity giant is said to be looking to make a big splash by acquiring Macy's. Sources said KKR partnered with Goldman Sachs on an offer for the $27 bln retailer valued at $52 a share, or about $24 bln, which may or may not exclude Macy's debt. Private equity sources said an agreement in principle could be within days of getting completed. The financial sources said principals involved had expected a deal to be signed last weekend, but others indicated there were details that needed to be ironed out. Sources also believe that the parties are trying to get a deal done before Monday, the scheduled date for a series of investor meetings planned by Macy's mgmt. A value for the potential deal could not be ascertained due to uncertainty over how much debt Macy's currently has on its books. According to private equity sources, KKR is keen on inking a deal as a way to help sell shares of its planned IPO later this year. From an investor's standpoint, Macy's is attractive because it generates cash, owns 54% of its real estate, and is one of the most famous retail brands in the world, with a rich heritage.

Ldn 10:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Japanese fears over nuclear power http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6903146.stm

As Japan admits that radioactive material leaked from a nuclear power plant during Monday's powerful earthquake, the former BBC Tokyo correspondent Jonathan Head looks at why Japan has stuck with nuclear power despite the risks.

dc CB 10:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Non Stop Deals:

Globe and Mail reports a private equity consortium led by Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM) is preparing a takeover offer for Canadian Pacific Railway that, if successful, would represent one of the largest leveraged buyouts Canada has seen, according to people familiar with the matter. Sources said Brookfield, in partnership with Goldman Sachs (GS) and the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, had expressed interest in a possible acquisition bid in April, but those advances were rebuffed. Instead, the board of the railway operator authorized a massive buyback of up to 10% of its stock that some observers interpreted as an attempt to thwart a takeover. However, the stock repurchase program has not deterred Brookfield from pushing ahead, according to a handful of people close to the matter. They said the prospective buyout group recently asked for another meeting with CP's directors to highlight the merits of a going-private transaction. As of a few days ago, both Goldman and the Caisse were still partnering with Brookfield on the effort, the sources said, although they stressed the group is being "circumspect" and does not want to mount a hostile bid. It is understood CP has hired financial advisers to spearhead its defense. At the end of trading Tuesday, CP was worth about $12 bln. But analysts have suggested the co could fetch closer to $15 bln from private equity suitors, who would ratchet up debt levels to help finance the purchase and generate returns.

Global-View 10:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bc biz, check your email

Hong Kong Ahe 10:34 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:14 GMT - The event of the nuclear Power plant in Japan, which provides one tenth of the electricity to Japan, may further lead to large compensation and hindrance of the Japan business world. It will lead to large repatriation of YEN back to Japan to save the motherland. Beware! GL GT.

Monaco Oil man 10:22 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
It's those risk models...Even the VaR one , take into account constant rates of 6% , then max default on any bond type instrument is valued at 70%..Now that's a big assumption..

Meaning the risk model might write it's all fine, but the bond defaulting more than 70% , is more than the risk model will ever price..So default where only 30% is taken back is 40 more than models will ever count..

They had a "gap" of 1$ to now 9 cent..

Market is risky..Very volatile , particularly for the leveraged guys..LTCM , energy..It will not stop , greed is the driver.


GT.

hk ab 10:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Don't miss RF mentioned that 119.xx in sight now....

Syd 10:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:13 GMT thats the sad thing , they cast the line out draw them in and then throw them in the pot :-))

PAR most investors are Suckers trust smooth talking men in suits

hk ab 10:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR/They need to make sure the value doesn't go to "negative"......

hk ab 10:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR// An easy solution for car makers is to short the dlr/jpy with a leverage 1:10 to counter against those housewives.

Like the BS case, those carry-traders know their RISKS.

Ldn 10:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand is just a small part of the yen carry trade, a $500bn (ÂŁ254bn) worldwide ... Japan's finance ministry says $100bn of this is hedge fund money, ...

PAR 10:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
What I find unbeliavable is that it take smart investment bankers at Bear Stearns three weeks to find out that the value of those hedge funds is ZERO .

hk ab 10:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
I delete the wishful thinking of seeing 123 now....

hk ab 10:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:09 GMT July 18, 2007

Actually, the banks made no loss 'cos they shift all the risks to these customers....

hk ab 10:11 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
the early birds have already positioned a BAD USD news posture since Asian morning. The key now is if the news will subsequently liquidate all those risk appetite carry-trade is just ONE of htem only...

hk ab 10:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR// I think those people have given enough notice to these groups and if they don't unwind/hedge somehow, they deserve the fruits.

Syd 10:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:05 GMT one thing we have to remember the people that invested in those funds did so of their own free will , knowing the consequences , that aniimal of investment is high risk and this is the price they pay -

UK Alex 10:05 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Bear Stearns on Tuesday told investors in two stricken hedge funds managed by the bank that one fund had lost all its value and the other had about nine cents remaining for every dollar invested, following bad bets on the US subprime mortgage market. The losses, especially for the less leveraged of the two funds, were worse than investors expected. The two funds at one point had more than $20bn in investments, much of it using borrowed money.

PAR 10:01 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Boj, Fed and other central bankers are worried about systematic risk to the financial system if the carry trade should ever unwind . First to go bancrupt would probably be Kampo , japanese car producers and some major Us and Uk hedge funds .

london av 09:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short GBP/yen 250.40 s/l 250.55

Gen dk 09:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 09:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Yen declines further against dollar as problems at Bear Stearns seems to be limited to investors and new carry trades are being put on by Us investment banks and hedge funds .

hk ab 09:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bugger seems to have problems... together with a/j....

try short both with tight s/l.

hk ab 09:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, thanks very much.
under current condition, I only see shorting nzd/chf is promising.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:33 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:26 GMT - Only normal or real saving and investment was kept in Kiwiland. Like, Hong Kong grannies bought kiwi for 3 months deposit to gain the high interest.

It only detered the speculators as they poured in Big Hot money and withdrawal them after earning big profits within few days. I couldnt remember exactly which year, perhaps 1987.

Ldn 09:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Market insight: Be bullish and watch the bears impale themselves
By Ken Fisher
click here

Headlines herald a US prime-time, subprime mortgage implosion leading to an upcoming credit-crunch crisis – destined to sink shares, raise interest rates and impale economies. But this is demonstrable nonsense. Yes, there have been media autopsies of the few notable subprime lenders who have gone belly up. More are certainly in the wings. But what makes this a systemic problem?

hk ab 09:30 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
eur long taken at 82
now need ot see action at the magneto wutever fulcrum.

Syd 09:27 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
It's crunch time for EUR/USD as it moves on channel resistance at 1.3860, says Barclays Capital. Both weekly and monthly charts are reading overbought and risk is that the current rally stalls and a substantial correction follows. Howeve the bank says for now, evidence of a top is conspicuously absent and until it appears, the greater uptrend needs to be respected. Pair now trades at 1.3785. The bank says while above 1.3680-40 support, the next target is 1.40.

hk ab 09:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ahe, that means, there's no more normal saving/free investment? When was it be? 198? ?

Gen dk 09:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Ahe 09:08 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ab, for example, the withdrawal of fund over certain amount from kiwiland was lengthen from three days to seven days etc.

hk ab 09:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ahe//Lengthening? how? TIA.

hk ab 09:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
protective stop on eur long @80 now.

The Netherlands Purk 09:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:59 GMT July 18, 2007

Abs, loonie is still in no mansland. If it is so than we have to see a change of pattern, and that is start at the low in the morning than evening some flying. that means for me that we have to pass 10455, than that 10471, and staying above 10439 for a while.

Hong Kong Ahe 08:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:45 GMT - Changing rule of the game is more destructive by money bombs. They are the first bank who was successful to defend kiwi from strengthening by speculators attacks in Eighties. Method was easy and simply by just lengthen the period of withdrawal from kiwi lands. It scared the speculators as their assets was going to be locked in the heaven. Flow is the top priorities for speculators. GL & GT.

bc biz 08:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
July 18. Cable has fallen by more than a quarter-cent to lows just shy of touted bids at 2.0480 on the back of the BoE MPC minutes disclosure that three members of the committee voted against this month"s 25bp base rate hike to 5.75%. May"s prior 25bp rate increase to 5.5% was delivered by a unanimous 9-0 vote.
The pound has also taken a knock from the sub-forecast 3.5% annualized rise in UK annualized average earnings in the three months to May. 3.6% was the expected number. There was better news for UK rate hawks re: the unexpected decline in May"s ILO jobless rate measure to 5.4%, and June"s much bigger than expected 13.8k decline in claimant count unemployment.
Some sell stops reportedly reside below 2.0477 (yesterday"s high). Exotic option barriers are tipped at 2.0550. Sterling scaled a new 26-year peak two pips shy of 2.0550 in Asia today.

hk ab 08:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Purky, do you see dlrcad has finished its job you mentioned yesterday?

Gen dk 08:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 08:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trust that everybody who called out for higher eur when trading above 138 did not get stoploss. Think when you think like the 95% one is treated as one of them..
I see correction on ozzie kiwi and loonie.
Protect profit and take s/l is the name of the game.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 2.0489*. It has potential to retrace back to 2.0377.

hk ab 08:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bought eur 1.3775

hk ab 08:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
each time before dlr/chf made a big drop in 4hr chart, there's a huge spike..... This time no difference.

hk ab 08:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
If RBNZ had that mighty, they should give it a push when kiwi licks 7850-00....

hk ab 08:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy bottoming again.... in 4hr...
Good for my wishful thinking of 123.....

gbp is really dumb and I thought it could kiss2.0560.... now need to wait Henry to give it a dose.

London Mamun 08:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
sold ÂŁ-$ 2.05 stop 2.0525

Syd 08:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The MPC's July vote split came in on the DJN consensus at 6-3 but the market had talked itself into a bigger vote for a hike and sterling has subsequently fallen on disappointment. Cable is at 2.0495 from 2.0520 while EUR/GBP is up 8 ticks to 0.6728. Next big support for cable is around 2.0440, resistance for EUR/GBP at 0.6740The vote for a rise in the Bank of England's key rate was as expected, with 6 MPC members favoring a move, and 3 opposed. But both camps are split internally, complicating the outlook for rates. Doves on the majority - probably Barker and Tucker - stressed downside risks and the need for caution and argued there was no "presumption" in favor of further moves. A larger group of hawks - Sentance, Besley and King - argued there were firm upside risks, although no "immediate" judgment that more hikes are needed. Bean joined Lomax and Blanchflower in dissenters camp, and a move in August appears far from certain.

London Mamun 08:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
SOLD GOLD AT 668 stop 671

EU theEUROqueen 08:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Should we crash the 1,385**during (Bernanke speech )it will be a great day today indeed

Mumbai Deepak 08:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NS...Wise words. But looking from a corporate side, I dont think that covering is a good idea, as looking too much from short term angle may result in missing the meat of the move and the original hedge may be left open, reflecting on "Forex Losses". The Forwards have all crashed, and for that, buying a short term bull spread could be considered (Purely short term trade - 2 weeks targeting 40.70 from current 41.4175/4275)

I guess, long term conviction eventually pays more often than not. And, I am a long term guy.

DS....where do you trade the Rupee in Swiss?? Could you email me? I have a friend in your country, who needs protection.

Syd 08:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Risk Of Contagion To Carry Trades

The USD may be falling on hedge fund losses, the poor NAHB survey, as well as credit spreads, but carry trades and the rise of high yielders have so far been unaffected. But, warns The Royal Bank of Scotland, "there could be contagion if USD/JPY weakness was to extend significantly." For now, gains for the low-yielding JPY have been fairly modest.

Syd 08:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The GBP looks like the pick of the high yielders, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Not only is the currency supported by the latest M&A news (Delta Two's $24B approach for J Sainsbury) but the Bank of England's minutes later Wednesday are hardly likely to reduce expectations of another 50 basis points on interest rates after Tuesday's strong inflation numbers

Syd 08:18 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP Is Pick Of The High Yielders -RBoS

Mumbai NS 08:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Deepak as discussed with u last near fwds are all in discount and third month at par as a result of this and the fact that central bank is not letting loose in the backdrop of some rumors of capital controls think square ur shorts and resell below 40.20-25 areas just a thot gl gt

GENEVA DS 08:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
thanks Mumbai... very much appreciated... gl

Mumbai Deepak 08:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
DS...INR does NOT move that much, that it would reach 35 in next 3 months. Particularly, since much of the move this year has already happened.

However, we need to be on our feet to watch for the new ramifications for the Dollar should the Dollar break 80.00 on a sustained Monthly Basis. As of now, only there is one supporter of the dollar and that is Yen, the reason for which is known to all.

Eventually, I expect the Rupee to appreciate but to 39 in 3 months time. The Support is at 40.30-25-20 and Closings below that should be seen for a valid break. I will post it here if that happens. I expect 35-36 in 2008 End.
Long Term Chart

The exporters here are not ready to see any thing below 40.00, with one treasury head of large export company is waiting for a rally to 42.50 since last 5 months to "Sell on Rally". I guess, the rally will never come. If it comes, then the trend has reversed and then it would be no need to sell in the first place. LOL

Good Luck for Long Puts, however, selling very deep in the money puts (below the put buying strike) would be recommended.

Hong Kong Ahe 07:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD is back to Zeus Line, what a forex war game!

Syd 07:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
The latest leap in sterling leaves the currency vulnerable to Wednesday's MPC minutes, says Calyon. The bank says the markets will be driven by how many doves swayed from June's 5-4 no change vote, and since June's minutes showed all members saw the need for a hike at some point it's conceivable that July's hike was backed 9-0. However, Calyon believes there will be some dissent among those doves who are worried about the uncertain outlook for consumer spending, while others may prefer to wait another month for the Quarterly Inflation report. Calyon looks for a 7-2 split and suspects it would take an 8-1 or 9-0 vote to provide sterling with the kind of lift it had from yesterday's CPI report, especially ahead of the Bernanke event risk later in the day.

Ldn 07:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:21 GMT what a load of b.ollocks

hk ab 07:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
time to revisit the fulcrum. and long from there.

Gen dk 07:37 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 07:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
thanks v. much Deepak.

I think gbp is floating here 'cos many expect a good number from BOE min. and that may help to rocket it to kiss 2.0560 for death.......

Mumbai Deepak 07:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
THAI CENTRAL BANK CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25BP TO 3.25%, NOT EXPECTED

GENEVA DS 07:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
sorry mumbai... did not know that exactly.... what do u think next 3 to month in USDINR ?

Mumbai Deepak 07:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
ab ....Bank Rate and reverse repo rate is 6.0%

DS...Its NOT bank of India. Its the RBI.

The Netherlands Purk 07:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Bugger: for those shorters out there the pair can go all the way to 16745-33. For now i should say, protect shorts from 16850+ range into stops at profit that you like....
If bugger has the power to go back to 16850 plus we all know what happens. The tick tick to the high last night was broken by the correction of the beast i can imagine but i dont care less.

Loonie already on the run down. Waiting for NN's move but if he is there around 10388 we might get a blast to 105 in a day. If he is not well, than we have to see where profittakers are, and they are not there, well it keeps on floating, there you are...

Nice move on the e/u. Range still tight.

hk ab 07:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
What's the prime rate of India now?

GENEVA DS 07:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
bought some very cheap PUT options on USDINR for next 6 month..... rate still holding 40.25 level... think Bank of India will give up defending USD and break to 35 matter of some weeks.... gl

hk ab 07:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
the players clearly know that there is a BIG stop waiting for them under 1.04.... simialy to the one under 1.05 before.

PAR 07:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Hearing BOJ and Kampo defending 121.50 in USDJPY to prevent carry trades from unwinding after the Bear Stearns disaster. Only winner from the collaps of those hedge funds seems to be Bear Stearns itself which collected very nice commissions while blowing up investors money .

Syd 07:18 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NZ Finance Minister Cullen in Parliament question time said he would target the exchange rate under section 12 of the RBNZ Act. The Government does have the power to issue an Order in Council to suspend the current policy targets agreement and to suspend the primary objective element of the Act. Seems he is seriously considering adjusting the RBNZ Policy target Agreement , which will weaken the NZD significantly .

hk ab 07:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dlr cad show time

may try long at Dr. q recommended 2.0505.

The dlr/jpy still heavy.

Como Perrie 07:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Morn...

huh, they said It

http://www.forexradio.net/radio.php

PAR 07:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Will Bernanke speech boost the dollar ? No . Since helicopter Ben became Fed president the dollar only got some palliative care to slow its death .

hk ab 06:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
gold move indicates many steam left behind chf and gbp..... imvho.

hk ab 06:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
SBS//dlr/jpy ranges break will make a no come back move as usual. So, many coilings could be seen like in the past. I hope 1 more bounce to be seen towards 123 before the largest move. GL and GT.

Ramat Afal SBS 06:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk, can you please elaberate.

I'am expecting a down move on $/yen. but it is still looking bid via the crosses.

thanks.

hk ab 06:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
unusal wider spread of a/j at this hour... GL

hk ab 06:34 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
aud will not prints 89 once a/j starts unwinding.....

hk ab 06:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
RISK AVERSION will be hoisted after its last flagging 6 yrs ago....

Ramat Afal SBS 06:28 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk, good morning.

what is your forcast for $/yen for the rest of the week?

thanks.

Sydney ACC 06:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a charity speech in Sydney today, titled The Asia Crisis: a Retrospective. The speech was designed to coincide with the 10 year anniversary-month of the 1997 Asia Crisis.

The speech itself had no relevance for Australian monetary policy. But the RBA Governor did make two interesting comments –

1. He said he wasn’t surprised that the Australian dollar was high, given a strong global economy and a 50 year high in Australia’s terms of trade.

2. He said that the US subprime developments are being unwound in a reasonably orderly fashion. But, you can’t be sure that it won’t develop into something bigger.

Market Reaction

The Australian dollar rose close to 20 pips following Steven’s comments to US$0.8785. The market has interpreted the comments as supportive of the current level of the Australian dollar from a central bank (monetary policy) perspective. The AUD is likely to rise further as London and US trade opens. A near-term test of US$0.8800 is possible.

CBA’s view remains that the AUD will continue to appreciate towards US$0.8900 by year-end.

hk ab 06:07 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
yen will take the influential role for the rest of the week.

USA Zeus 06:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 05:58 GMT July 18, 2007

ac- Much appreciated.
Very valid points- all noted. Thx :-)

Syd 06:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
If Germany heading south without a rate hike the streets will be running with blood across Europe once they do !!

BERLIN. The economic situation in Germany already left its high point in opinion of experts behind itself. The Mannheimer center for European economic research (ZEW) according to, which appoints itself to an inquiry under 300 analysts, economic situation expectations decreased/went back surprisingly strongly. Therefore growth in the second yearly half will more weakly fail than in first. As causes the Mannheimer researcher called the strong euro, the high oil prices and the rising interest. Like that the euro is no longer far from the 1,40-Dollar-Marke and also the oil price noted on a record level.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.berlinonline.de/berliner-zeitung/index.php&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=1&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2BBerliner%2BZeitung%2B%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26pwst%3D1

hk ab 05:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
YIPPEE, May I ask your multif fig target of this gbp short?

Haifa ac 05:58 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:53 GMT July 18//We are rather close to mega changes in many trends (stocks, third world bubble, commodities, dollar, star is born....).
These are important times!
7 years into the thitd millenium. Mark the concept.

hk ab 05:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
From the wise words of BC, this USD downturn probably need a "real" stick from CBs to signal the possibility of retreating.

Before that, those risky curr like kiwi can be toasted with other majors behave normally.

hk ab 05:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, do remember to hoist your timing sharp when "that" is seen...;P

I see during this crisis, chf, jpy and PMs are benefit the most.

USA Zeus 05:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
While short the USD I maintain my unpopular view that a very LT cycle change is likely to take place in favor of the USD.

Syd 05:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Global Risk Aversion Would Spur USD/Asians-Westpac


0542 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. Treasury's latest international flows data show another fall in China's holdings but big picture is intact, says Westpac: "Asia buys the U.S.' bonds, while the U.S. invests a much smaller amount - though growing - in foreign equity markets including Asia's. Hence if we see a substantial rise in global risk aversion - even if the catalyst is in U.S. credit markets - the likely response is a rally in dollar/Asia, as U.S. sales of Asian equities dominate

Syd 05:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Chris Locke Oystertrade.com says the USD could possible make a recovery from here as its reached levels across the board they have been aiming for and market should be careful of a large correction happening at any time

hk ab 05:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
actually I have a qns left atthe back of my mind.....
What will CBs think when 80 breaks and stay under? Will they care?

And what's the next level of "concern"? 70?

hk ab 05:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
also may short the break of dlr/jpy if seen.... (downside).

GENEVA DS 05:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab

do you mean , we should see one of these mornings a high of 1.1930 AUDUSD ?.... just for fun... expect the unexpected... i.e. a great continuation of this trend... gl

Syd 05:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
German economic think-tank Ifo sees the country's economic expansion losing some of its momentum, Ifo's head of economic research Gebhard Flaig told daily Berliner Zeitung for its Wednesday edition.

"The upswing does not have the same dynamic as in 2006," the paper is citing Flaig, "We're over the peak."

Flaig's peer at Berlin-based think-tank DIW, Christian Dreger, is of the same opinion. Dreger is pointing to the construction business that has lost strength.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the following is still valid :-


Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT July 13, 2007
EUR/GBP: The pattern of my monthly cycle charts indicate that the market can easily trade between 0.6721 - 0.6798. The lower barrier of the monthly cycle is positioning at 0.6701 // 0.6721. The current expected trading ranges are 0.6701 // 0.6721* - 0.6740 - 0.6759 - 0.6779 - 0.6798* - 0.6818 - [0.6837].

hk ab 05:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
short dlr/cad for the last leg.

USA Zeus 05:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:32 GMT July 18, 2007

Could do. the magic of 1.3777 could serve many uses but am seeing it more like a fulcrum now instead of strange attractor as that option we chatted about before after gaining energy. However, will not surprise to revist 1.3777 later with the attraction action to wipe and clear stops after being stopped cold for almost a week.

hk ab 05:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
many m/t highs in aud and kiwi are made in Asian session.

hk ab 05:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
So, Zeus, this euro will march towards 1.4 and let's see if we can see one more time 1.3777 for the move.

milan tom 05:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD should correct now before next swing to 1,3885 UGBPUSD next target 2,0565 IMHO

Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : Heading Towards 2.4734

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above [2.4598]. The market is now heading towards 2.4734. The upper barrier of the projected series is located at 2.5007 // 2.5075. A projected resistant point is located at 2.4837.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for WEDNESDAY-JULY 18th:

Today’s Favored FX Trade:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

USA Zeus 04:55 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Well yes keep an eye on gold. Later we'll tell you that we told you so.

USA Zeus 04:52 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
yep the EUR/USD coil was compressed ready to leap from 1.3777 as a hinge like we talked about.

USA Zeus 04:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Wellington, N.Z. 04:32 GMT July 18, 2007

Max-What are the results of your daily favored trades? TIA

USA Zeus 04:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:30 GMT July 18, 2007

Dunno ab. Can't conclude what I don't know with any reasonable probability. Been on this side for the ride higher (GBP/USD as well) but have no particular price objectives 2 more pips or 2000 at this point. Just trading the flows now.

Monaco Oil man 04:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Well looking at this market , it's time to go back with the flow, wasted 18 days , and US$ is still not bouncing..Might as well let it start bouncing than wishing it starts bouncing..

This month has been difficult for only one reason : there's not dips to enter short US$ position..One way street market says one thing..More one way street market , then one day no more one way street market...

However there doesn't seem to be any valid reasons to go long US$ at this time (apart against the JPY) , as technical supports are breaking in all majors, USD index is stumbling to news lows, Oil making new highs, and interest differential thinning against the Euro , and increasing vs the GBP, AUD, NZD.

As i posted earlier (with the 1.1930 AUD "forest") , the US$ cycle seems to be accelerating (not so far vs the YEN , so it looks there also imminent) , and E$ marching towards 1.45..Only under 1.33 we start having signs of US$ strength from here (though under 1.3630, longs can be taken out as period of range might start with 1.35-1.38 coming to mind).

Time to go back to the favored meal of the last decade nearly now...

Sell the US$.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Forecasts for WEDNESDAY-JULY 18th:

Today’s Favored FX Trade:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Sydney ACC 04:32 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ramifications of strong AUD starting to come

Mineral sands miner Iluka Resources has downgraded its full year profit guidance due to the impact of a higher Australian dollar.

The company said today that its calendar 2007 net profit would between $55 million and $65 million, assuming an average exchange rate of 81 US cents.

Iluka's original guidance was for a full year net profit of $90 million to $100 million, based on an average exchange rate of 75 US cents.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/strong-dollar-hits-iluka-earnings/2007/07/18/1184559827351.html

hk ab 04:30 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, time to conclude that your 1.3777 is a jumper for eur towards 1.4?

hk ab 04:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
and yen also wants to join the party to break thru 80 marks.

hk ab 04:24 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kiwi buyers must be v. puzzled not to see their doggy following majors.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards 2.0621

The critical level of my monthly cycle is positioning at [2.0205] - 2.0377. The monthly cycle projected series indicates that the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 2.0489*. The monthly cycle charts shows that the market is moving towards 2.0721. Projected barrier are located at 2.0509 and 2.0621.

USA Zeus 04:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
yes there is gold kicking a little bit now....crescendo

Sydney ACC 04:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Watch out on AUD.
Glen Stevens stated that he is not surprised AUD is at these klevels given the improved terms of trade, in fact compared to CAD and NZD it has underperformed.

Syd 04:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD may run into "pretty tough resistance" around 0.7935-0.7940 area heading into offshore session due to potential risk aversion after news subprime mortgages woes wiped out Bear Stearns hedge funds, says ABN Amro currency strategist Greg Gibbs; says he's "a bit surprised" both AUD, NZD strong as would have expected to see some unwinding of "high yield emerging plays" from Asia on news, but explains "people are afraid to sell the Aussie and the Kiwi. They've risen so consistently, the market is afraid to play the risk aversion card." Also notes USD weakness partly holding up NZD, with market focus on raft of U.S. data, including CPI, tonight

hk ab 04:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
And purky last mission on dlr/cad will materialize too.

Dlr index should have broken 80 now.

JKT ACDC 04:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, May I know whay you decided to short GBP Thanks

hk ab 04:12 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
aud..... 8888??????????

gbp is just "as usual".

Now prefer to short @/near 60 after this blast.

Makassar Alimin 04:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on cable short earlier at 2.0538

Syd 04:01 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 03:56 yes seems to be many thanks and hope you stick around :-)))

NYC YIPPEE 03:56 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd: FX looking interesting again. And "Yes" I am looking at long US dollar strategies for mutiple big figures. Not calling the top here - but sense the risk reward is too juicy to ignore.

Syd 03:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 03:50 hi again great to have you back on GV , are you seeing the Dollar finally coming back for a time ? again nice to see you again

NYC YIPPEE 03:50 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd: Best option to be short but would prefer vs the JPY.

I am looking for a material move across all US dollar pairs in next few sessions.

Syd 03:43 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 03:30 GMT Hi, Yippee whats your view on the Aud thanks

hk ab 03:43 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
can't imgine we are at 80.30 now.... LOL.

JKT ACDC 03:36 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
HI all,

Why is it that GBP keeps climbing. How come it does not affect UK economy if GBP keeps rising. Also trend still looks very strong upward. A lot of traders do claim that GBP is overbought but it does not seem to stop traders from buying into it.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is going to consolidate between 2.0512 - 2.0621.

hk ab 03:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
what recipe can make up dlr index 80?

dlr/jpy 121.50, eur 1.3850, gbp 2.0550, dlrchf 1.19?

NYC YIPPEE 03:30 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
FWIW Fancy GBPUSD hold 2.0563 and GBPJPY 250.37.

Would short here 20 and 00 with stops above....

bbsapul 03:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
looks like US dollar is doomed

Syd 03:25 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: Dow Jones Board Approves News Corp's Bid

hk ab 03:20 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
posiibly, I prefer eur short rather than gbp short.

Syd 03:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Credit Suisse expects China 2Q GDP to grow 11.2-11.4% on year; tips June CPI to rise 4% driven by higher food prices. Expects China to raise both lending, deposit interest rates by 27 bps this Friday or next; also expects announcement on deposit income tax changes. "We think a rate hike of 27 bps won't do much to the economy, but may affect market sentiment," it says. Adds China stocks could fall initially after release of strong June economic data, but may rally later if subsequent tightening measure is 27bp hike and not more aggressive. China set to release 2Q GDP, June CPI data tomorrow

Sydney ACC 03:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 03:08 GMT July 18, 2007
Maybe so but in the last month there has been on three days when cable has closed lower than the opening, the largest of these produced a 40 point reversal.
OK it has to happen at some stage but this looks risky especially with every other currency hammering on resistance levels.

hk ab 03:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
alimin, i wait for 2.0530.

Syd 03:13 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Thai Fin Min: Need To Ensure Baht Not Moving Too Fast
Thai Fin Min: Baht Shouldn't Move In One Direction

Syd 03:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
RBA Stevens: Ongoing Work Needed To Avoid Asia Crisis Repeat

Ldn 03:08 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 02:59 GMT very overbought

Makassar Alimin 03:06 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 02:59 GMT July 18, 2007

why not, i am in, 2.0508 30 pips stop should be sufficient

hk ab 02:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
take a look of this beasty gbp.... can't imagine if someone wants top picking....

Syd 02:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Home loans on tap
Sydney Morning Herald
The mortgage stress crisis is being worsened by the boom in easy credit, with lenders approving loans without inspecting properties, offering large amounts to borrowers who have no deposit and encouraging buyers to take on debts that would eat up half their income.

Amid concern over the growing practice of loans being approved with no on-site inspection, the Herald discovered yesterday how easily customers can be seduced by quick and simple access to credit.

Syd 02:49 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane mortgage stress doubles
The number of Brisbane families spending more than 30 per cent of their income on mortgage repayments has doubled in five years, according to data released last week.

Census figures show the number of owner-occupier households suffering "mortgage stress" has increased from 22,264 in 2001 to 44,811 in 2006.

The figure triples if people renting their home are included.

Both the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Housing Industry Association recognise 30 per cent of household income on mortgage repayments as an accurate benchmark of "mortgage stress".

Syd 02:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:18 GMT Will avoid the economy or be quite happy with the way its been going cooling somewhat especially the employment data of late , cant see him rocking the boat infact think he will be positively Dovish

Sydney ACC 02:18 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:02 GMT July 18, 2007
Whats your view on his testimony?

Syd 02:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Commodity currencies are continuing on their trends, but the moves are becoming exhausted. The sustainability of the rallies will be dependent upon how dollar bullish Bernanke will be . fxm

USA Zeus 01:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Well we'll here about the carry trade as if it controlled the market. Some say it is going, coming, reversing, resuming. Bottom line is it does not matter.

USA Zeus 01:54 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:21 GMT July 18, 2007

LOL- well ab dunno if that IS the level for teeter totter fulcrum action. Doesn't show on my calcs. Let's see...

hk ab 01:54 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Simply, they can dive in and by "manipulation" and "intervention" amid this situation.

melbourne DC 01:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
$y sitting on my 4hr uputrend .. which held 3 tests..121.80

USA Zeus 01:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
crescendo yes

hk ab 01:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
syd//currnetly begging 121.60 holds and bounce it back to my shooting region...

Syd 01:51 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab it would come a bit of a blow to the Kiwi /yen if he manages to bring down inflation by other means and start cutting rates :-))))

hk ab 01:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
kiwi crosses maybe the most volatile one in this summer.

Syd 01:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab looks like he is about to act

Syd 01:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Cullen yesterday says NZD "significantly overvalued" amid renewed debate in political circles over high NZD, which driven by RBNZ contining to raise rates. Answering questions in Parliament, he noted under RBNZ act, government could override act's objective of price stability, instruct bank to pursue different objective; later says he was merely pointing out that government had the power to change focus under act, not signaling

Syd 01:38 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:35 many thanks for that

Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:19 GMT July 18, 2007
A falling dollar makes US equities look good, dividend returns when converted produce more USD.
I bvelieve Berananke's testimony tonight is important for one of teh two options.
Option one is a straight regurgitation of the same old story about the Fed being more concerned about inflation than the sub-prime market.
Optioin two is a continuation of option one with an add in. He could raise concerns about the higher risk margins being applied to loans and the danger that this may have derailing the recovery. He could then go on and say the highere margins, while welcome because financial institutions are finally pricing risk at correct levels, will by definition reduce the onus on the Fed to raise interest rates again if need be. Anything he says that resonates with any delay or reduction of interest rates and the FX market will slam the dollar. As to what might happen with equities tonight I haven't got a clue.

Syd 01:31 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Taiwan probes watchdog over $2.2bn fraud
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/56878396-3478-11dc-8c78-0000779fd2ac.html

hk ab 01:27 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Party is over?

Syd 01:26 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
China shares expected to drop given chance of further policy tightening in near-term, after Xinhua reports legislative committee said yesterday China should continue to strengthen macroeconomic controls to deal with problems in economy; words strengthen expectations Beijing will take more cooling measures to rein in blistering pace in investments, possibly as soon as this weekend. Shanghai Composite may break below 3800 after ending +1.9% at 3896.19 yesterday, says Zhu Haibin at Essence Securities; "the rebound is unlikely to continue as shrinking volume reflects a lack of confidence." Adds market correction in coming months will depend on how government tightens policy. Property stocks, including China Vanke (000002.SZ), Merchants Property (000024.SZ), likely to fall 2-3% after recent rally.

hk ab 01:23 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Looking at all majors, I see that eur pressure can be relieved to all the cousins now, first chf then yen.

hk ab 01:21 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, do you need to put up a new 1.3888 attractor now?

Syd 01:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC do you see this hittlng the US equities

Ldn 01:18 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
brazilian peso

milan chuck 01:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
as i said yeastrady usd can not much left on down side people can think big move south but where oil can go 100 150 but 5 ooo km border line mean something...... negative sentiment on usd surge from a long time ago now ....is better becarfull hit the monkey hardly when time is coming and ithink will be pretty soon mu cycle is saying pretty soon bla bla is cofusing big picture hasta siempre

USA Zeus 01:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Note that SP 500 contracts are down 10.75

Syd 01:17 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:10 thats true just need to get their act together but seems we are really getting close to the frothy top before some form of correction

hk ab 01:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Just wonder what on earth can we have a substitute for kiwi....

hk ab 01:15 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
just checked Sing dollar rate and dound that there's a lot of room for new carry shift..... lots of room....

Sydney ACC 01:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:00 GMT July 18, 2007
Given the various internal and external pressures on prices, what would be the ramifications for the currency and interest rates if they adjusted the inflation range. They currently target 1-2% whereas the UK and Australia are in the range of 2-3%. The range NZ employs puts them near the bottom of a league of comparative countries.

hk ab 01:10 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
a bit regret to dump that dlr/jpy short early 'cos the indicators definitely is now flashing a big south move.

Syd 01:09 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Spot gold rally could be running out of steam after struggling to maintain prices above $665/oz, says Sydney-based trader. Notes some buying in early Asian trading after sterling, euro reach new record high vs dollar. U.S. CPI data, Fed Bernanke testimony to provide fresh direction but gold could be in for test lower. "The market is getting reasonably long and could fall back to the $655 area," says trader.

Syd 01:08 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:05 GMT need to get their website if so :-)))

hk ab 01:05 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
syd, there might be a GHFC that we don't know.... (Global-Housewives forex community.)

hk ab 01:04 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
sh.....quiet unloading the yen-crosses.

Syd 01:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:57 also seems the housewives are starting to manipulate the market BOJ turning a blind eye

Syd 01:00 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:57 looks like he will do something god knows what but getting uptight about the level here

Syd 00:59 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen appears to be causing ripples in local financial markets after telling Parliament Tuesday that the government has the capacity to suspend the central bank's single focus on inflation.

Persistently high domestic inflation has forced Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard to raise interest rates in three quick moves this year, taking the Official Cash Rate to a record 8.00% - the highest policy rate in the developed world after Iceland. The consequent rush by offshore investors to buy into New Zealand dollar-denominated assets has driven the country's currency to record highs.

Cullen's comments on the government's Policy Targets Agreement, or PTA, with the RBNZ came after the minister labeled the local currency "significantly overvalued."

hk ab 00:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Just testing to see if my kiwi short exit can initiate a 100 pips down move :P

Syd 00:57 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:53 bit too long to post DowJ.

hk ab 00:53 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:46 GMT July 18, 2007

where is it from?

Wellington, N.Z. 00:48 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
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Mtl JP 00:47 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Only on June 4th, the FT prognosticated market this sentiment: "UK interest rates are seen staying at 5.5 per cent, even though inflation concerns remain prominent following recent data pointing to the increased pricing power of British companies. Interest rate futures suggest another quarter-point increase to 5.75 per cent is likely by August.". Reality check: BoE has already hiked June rates to 5.75% and market expects 6% in August.

Money supply, over the long(er) run, does matter. Always did, always will. LOL

Syd 00:46 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
NZ Fin Min Brings Focus Back To RBNZ's Mandate As NZD Surges

hk ab 00:45 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
When eur makes a high and eur/gbp makes a dive, there must be a liar....

Gen dk 00:44 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 00:43 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
just can't see how any "managed" fund will be bode enough to buy e/j near 170, g/j @250 and a/j at 107 here.....

bbsapul 00:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
is US dollar really this screw up?

NYC YIPPEE 00:42 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   


Man it has been a while! I am going to have a read of the forum and post a few comments...

Syd 00:41 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:39 GMT looks like it a trap

Lth th 00:40 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 18:25
I am in broad agreement. However it is worth highlighting the effect of UK's accession to EU on Oz and NZ. We are only just now adjusting to the newer global trading paradigm as Asian economies come out of the closets.

hk ab 00:39 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
be careful, it looks like the prisoners in yen crosses trying their last efforts to push up all the carry pairs to unload.....

Mtl JP 00:34 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:06 / BoE Screwedup Royaly when it didn't hike rates when it c(sh)ould have: it has LOST the Inflation Battle (via expectation, anchor and mooring notions). There is only one way for it to re-gain control with M4 at 14% and Inflation June: CPI down to 2.4%, RPI at 4.4%: rates will have to go much much muuuuchhh higher.

hk ab 00:29 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
dlr index 80 should be licking now.

oilman, can you have a bit more update on that dlr/chf long from 1.1970?

Syd 00:27 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Spot gold faces "minor price fatigue," turns under $665/oz for 2nd day with focus on U.S. CPI, Bernanke later, says Kitco analyst Jon Nadler. Says stronger demand elusive despite two weeks of fairly solid gains; "it may not bode well for the short-term that 665 to 668 dollars may be emerging as a stronger than expected resistance area" and pause in rally may trigger profit taking.

dc CB 00:19 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:46 GMT July 17, 2007
dc CB 23:38 I still see Bernanke overlooking the whole situation as market histaria,

That's why Bush et al gave him in the job. More Transparent, yet more Academic, the perfect taste ....smoke Pall Malls.

dc CB 00:16 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
I wonder if one of the Representatives will ask Ben what he makes of the Bears ..........Two Bear Funds nearly worthless Investors told........... sounds a bit Penny Stock...dosen't it Mr. Bernanke?

hk ab 00:14 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
exit dlr/jpy shorts at 122 handle.

USA Zeus 00:03 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
Well like we talked about- "Risk" will be the fashion statement on Wall and Broad.

Syd 00:02 GMT July 18, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD - to consolidate, may initially target support at 0.8708, some caution at current levels, pair may test support during next few sessions as traders remain cautious of any damage to risk appetite from U.S. subprime concerns, some analysts suggest recent AUD strength may weaken case for further tightening from RBA could damp investor support for currency.