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Forex Forum Archive for 07/20/2007

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GVI john 21:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
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GVI john 21:22 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
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UK Alex 21:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Yes, a sad day for checkers indeed. Fortunately, chess is a far superior game and a computer will probably blow its circuits before it ever gets anywhere near a solution.

Minyanville certainly knows how to read between the lines of the FOMC minutes:

Certainly, if by "more efficient deployment of the economy's resources" the Fed really means "the confiscation and transfer of wealth by means of inflation," then yes, the low savings rate is indeed a more "efficient" deployment of resources.

This central bank's philosophy, as revealed by the Fed minutes, is to maintain consumption at all costs.

UK Alex 21:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
JP// The BOE made a mistake by cutting rates in August 2005, but they are now tightening in an effort to dampen inflation. If you are referring to the increase in money supply, then ask yourself where all that money is coming from? Yes, London is attracting a lot of hot money from here, there and everywhere. Are house prices falling? No. There is a fundamental problem with supply (i.e. we haven't been building enough new homes for the last 10 years) and now demand is increasing with the recent inflow of migrant workers.

Mtl JP 21:02 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sad day for checkers

Mtl JP 20:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Alex / this CBanker reasoning on "need to get on top of this inflation problem" amazes me: "The sooner households begin to acknowledge the consequences of higher interest rates, the greater is the chance of a smooth adjustment towards a level of consumption consistent with maintaining the inflation target in the medium term." warned Besley.

re borrowing: In general, it is a good idea to not pay interest on anything that loses value. In general, lenders lend because they expect they are/will be making profit.

UK Alex 20:43 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:21 GMT July 20, 2007
The UK mortgage rates have remained competitive despite the Bank of England's rate hikes so we can't apportion the blame quite so easily. Borrowing to invest is not a bad thing in itself, especially if you want to protect your money from the effects of inflation, but loaning recklessly is. The subprime sector represents a much smaller portion of the overall market over here and the risks to the economy are therefore that much less. Couple that with the UK's above trend growth and you will see we are doing just fine. They just need to get on top of this inflation problem.

Mtl JP 20:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex / look who is washing their hands:

Besley defends desire to raise rates - FT July 20 2007

"...He said looser lending criteria “appear to be linked to the strong asset price inflation that we have witnessed”. ..."

In the same tone and (I can not help percieve) pre-emptively:

Fed's Poole says sub-prime problems due to bad business decisions, not economy - 2007-07-20 15:34:14

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The sub-prime mortgage meltdown is mostly the result bad business models and bad decisions in the mortgage market, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank president William Poole said today.
It is not a systemic problem with the housing industry or the economy, Poole told a real estate brokers convention at St Louis, and rather that "I believe we should conclude that this year's markets punished mostly bad actors and/or poor lending practices".
The St Louis Fed released the text of Poole's speech to reporters.
Primarily, he said, the problems "stem from inadequate incentives among some of the parties operating in the market to create and maintain strong reputations for quality and fair-dealing".
That lack of incentives applied especially to thinly capitalised mortgage brokers generating much of the sub-prime lending.
Many of them are now in bankruptcy and "there is reason for concern about this business model... when capital is so thin that owners have little to lose if the business ceases operations".
Poole said securitisation, the ability to repackage and sell on mortgages, was the key factor enabling the enormous growth of sub-prime lending. That opened formerly local mortgage markets to national and international capital flows.
As a result: "Non-prime mortgages are the common denominator in such diverse recent developments as rising household foreclosure rates and collapsing hedge funds."
Poole said he was surprised that hedge fund managers and investors did not see sub-prime problems coming as interest rates rose.
"Of course, I would not expect average homeowners to be able to read the yield curve," he said, "but I find it odd that apparently sophisticated investors in non-prime mortgage-backed securities now claim surprise that many non-prime ARM (adjustable rate) borrowers are facing payment shock because of the increase in short-term interest rates over the past few years."
It was not, after all, as if the Fed had not been saying since 2004 that it was going to be raising rates. The phrase "policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured" became famous in FOMC statements.
What should the Fed be doing now? Poole said it needs to focus on abuses and new regulations that provide the kind of incentives to good business practice that were missing.
"The sub-prime market in particular is an immature market," he said, "a baby market in age, thought not in size, and we want to remember the adage about not discarding the baby with the bathwater."

He, a central banker, finds it odd ! and now they are going to be coming out - post fact - note - with regulations ! ahhhhhh....

The netherlands Purk 19:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Well in case somebody noticed, NN is back and loonie found a buyer i guess...
Have a nice weekend.
Happy day!

Lahore FM 19:55 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 18:23 GMT July 20, 2007
perhaps yes.

Hong Kong WT 19:27 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
booked 60 pips profit
This Loonie bottom picking cost me a few days. Very patient to wait. Bank of China don't have canjpy pair to trade.

GVI john 18:45 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Revdax- forex is driven by interest rates. This has been a very volatile session in U.S. and EZ 10-yr notes... see BOTH charts below (esp bunds)... GL+GT





hk revdax 18:35 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 18:31 GMT//pardon my ignorance. how can it be wild unless the pip spread charged is about 1? for 3-5 pip traders, it is as unwild as position trading.

hk ab 18:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
seems we need Monday for 120.....

NYC jr 18:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If Jack Nicholson were a bank trader -Anonymous.... apologies Revdax for disrupting the flow. just getting a little loopy late on Friday. It's been a wild one!

hk revdax 18:26 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 18:23 GMT //Are you smoking something?

NYC jr 18:23 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I eat breakfast three hundred yards away from four thousand hedge funds who are trained to pick me off. So don’t think for one second that you can come down here, flash a client relationship, and make me nervous. Son, we live in a world that has risks, and those risks have to be avoided by men with models. Who’s gonna do it? You? The Sales Force? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for your client and curse the desk. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that your client’s loss, while tragic, probably saved p&l. An that my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves p&l. You don’t want the truth. Because, deep down, in places you don’t like to talk about at parties, you want me in those screens. You need me in those screens. We use words like roll-down, carry, gamma. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very bonus pool that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I’d rather you just said “thank you” and went on your way. Otherwise, I’d suggest you pick up a prop book and stand a post. Either way, I don’t give a censored what you think you are entitled to!

hk revdax 18:23 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:29//Not today...

USA Zeus 18:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sales: "You want answers?"
Finance: "I think we are entitled to them!"
Sales: "You want answers?!"
Finance: "I want the truth!"
Sales: "You can't handle the truth!!!"
Sales (continuing): "Sir , we live in a world that requires revenue. And that revenue must be brought in by people with elite skills. Who's going to find it? You? You, Mr. Operations? We have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom.
You scoff at the sales division and you curse our lucrative incentives. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what we know: that while the cost of business results are excessive, it drives in revenue. And my very existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, drives REVENUE! You don't want to know the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at staff meetings ... you want me on that call. You NEED me on that call!
We use words like consignment, evaluations, discounts, RFPs. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent negotiating something. You use them as a punch line!
I have neither the time nor inclination to explain myself to people who rise and sleep under the very blanket of revenue I provide and then question the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise I suggest you pick up a phone and make some sales calls. Either way, I don't give a censored what you think you're entitled to!"
Finance: "Did you expense the alcohol?"
Sales: "I did the job I was hired to do."
Finance: "Did you expense the alcohol?"
Sales: "You're goddamn right I did!"

PAR 18:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PPT getting ready for last half hour miraculiousq rallye. i walked thru the valei of declining stocks and i show no fea

hk ab 17:49 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If they like RBNZ will visit us then as well...or if manipulation is to be used, won't it be in about 1.5 hr?

HK Kevin 17:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:19 GMT July 20, 2007, the hr of NZ opening while we fall asleep is much dangerours

tokyo ginko 17:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
i am looking at a test of 1.0650

Lahore FM 17:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ab don't really disagree but am looking for a possibility of a shift in this recent trend of chf and jpf being joined at hips in unwing actions.let us see about it.

Gen dk 17:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 17:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM//If dlr/jpy breaks and close under 121, dlr/chf flight might b delayed due to tandem carry-unwinding.

Lahore FM 17:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
usdchf can etricate itself from 1.2010 and off to 1.21.

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ginko 17:05 / to be precise, - from the GV database - we need to see close above 1.0501 (from 7/9/2007). Else it is just a "zeusmarine bobb".

Lahore FM 17:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:44 GMT July 19, 2007
cad above 1.0435/40 goes to 1.05 for a quick one.
--
1.0505 possible,alos possible we don't see 1.0440 for a fe days if not more.

hk ab 17:19 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
this hr is the most dangerous thin hr.

Lahore FM 17:15 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:37 GMT July 20, 2007
sold audusd 0.8824 in addition to 0.8801 earlier.stops a 0.880 for two.

--
out of half of 0.8824 at 0.8767.stops lowered from 0.8880 to 0.8830 for remainder 1 and 1/2.

Lahore FM 17:07 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:57 GMT July 19, 2007
Lahore FM 11:38 GMT July 19, 2007
long usdcad 1.0440,stops at 20.
-
s/l amended to 07.

------
closed half at 1.0488.

tokyo ginko 17:05 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:55 GMT , u are right, i meant to say "take off " , wonder if there are any hunter to hit the geese down. GT

hk ab 17:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sell gbp 2.0550. add more if blips towards 2.0580

hk ab 17:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
if eur/chf unwinds, it will confirm.

HK Kevin 17:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe, sound like to create a electroencephalogram in my brain. You must be a physican in profession.

hk ab 17:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
we seem to be too distracted for dlr/jpy collapse but actually it's a carry-trade collapse....

Lahore FM 16:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
than Alimin.last long usdchf added 1.2013.stops 1.1990.

geneva 16:56 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
The world economy became a HUGE video game! who care about economic numbers. Play play play. GL dont forget to enjoye

Mtl JP 16:55 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 16:38 / one can not talk of flying while under 1.05, only bobbing

Makassar Alimin 16:55 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:52 GMT July 20, 2007

very nice one, especially in audusd..i absolutely like what i see in the chart!

Lahore FM 16:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
it is all good for the dollar the way it is turning.

hk ab 16:50 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
OMG..... was I running too fast, from time to time....

yen crosses (ALL) being nailed.......but expect a blip on Monday.

Hong Kong Ahe 16:47 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:28 GMT - Hi Kevin, you flag those pairs you are interested to trade. Those data keeps rotating and you take a glance of it periodically at a regular frequency. Those data form signal send to your brain like camera snapshots. Your brain will save them automatically as images of data. Later your brain will be trained to update those data of image by adding the time period and frequency of changes into it and form a chart in it. As new data comes in, it will analyse without alerting you until some signal of turns, which is learned by the past experience. Later, your brain will be auto-driven by itself with a detail roadmap and chart hidden inside implicitly.

Hope that I can explain it in a comprehensive way what I am trying to say. LOL.

HK Kevin 16:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sold USD/JPY at 121.26 earlier, stop above 121.60.

geneva 16:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
They will like him!!! "the dollar"

HK Kevin 16:43 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If AUD/JPY trading under 106.20, I will be blaming myself for closing the positions too early.

hong kong seek 16:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
seems Hongkongers become the main contributor here...

tokyo ginko 16:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
geese flying

Çesme NYAM 16:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD stıl behavıng above 2-4 trend lıne. whıch now stands at 2.0500 and rısıng at 2 pıps an hour. Plenty of room to breath for another push up. lıkely to end ın overlappıng waves as most of the GBP moves have done on larger scales and these thıngs lıke to repeat fractal lıke. Attractors above 2.0605/30 - 20690/725 above that then some new news must come out to change the fundamental outlook as 2.010 looks a straıght shot. But r/r suggests shortıng between 2.06 and 2.07 wıth s/l just above or shortıng once 2-4 trend breaks occurs whıchever fırst. Cıao good weekend.

Makassar Alimin 16:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
japanese housewives will be angry next week and make a revenge selling more jpy

Sichuan LK 16:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:58 GMT

I may recommend one to you,if you send me an email.

hk revdax 16:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:13//Yes, sometimes i wonder about those courses too, but i have to be humble because i have never taken one. I admire your quantitative talents. That said, the only thing that seems to work for me most of the time is to avoid trading against the trend. This is why I am still buying Euro despite it has gone so high.

HK Kevin 16:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 16:13 GMT, I also have a pager with news and quote feed. How to turn it to my teacher? Hope to learn from you!

USA Zeus 16:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
These moves are far to obvious and predictable. Must be big positions taking action and can't hide their cards very well.
LOL

Hong Kong Ahe 16:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:58 GMT - Hi Revdax, sorry I dont know. I hv not attended any forex class. I learnt by myself and writing programes for myself running since 1985. I once challenged those software of charting emerging in late 80s. I think one of my good teacher is the real time price quoting machine (mobile one) which I carried 24 hrs. I could touch the pulse of the market and also the minds behind those traders from those changing figures. GLGT.

USA Zeus 16:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Well buying gold on dips being the favored trade of the day is red hot of course.

LOL

Çesme NYAM 16:08 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
cecme TURK NYAM 06:25 GMT July 19, 2007
çesme NYAM 06:42 GMT July 20, 2007
London NYAM 09:42 GMT June 26, 2007

Target hıt on the mark at 38.2 retrace from 19th apr low to 22 june hıgh. Thınk thıs just about does ıt? Probably not. Prıce actıon suggests more to follow. But stıll looks correctıve and balance of rısks have shıfted ın favour of turnıng posıtıve soon. Dollar losses wıll probably contınue monday but the bottom ıs nearly ın. I look forward to Tuesday to go dollar bargaın huntıng.

hk ab 16:05 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//daily hammer?

HK Kevin 16:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Auuise backs to today's opening level, any clue?

dc CB 16:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
talk about "which is it" (see my 14:50)

someone must have told Poole that stox are tanking on his earlier remarks....."never mind"

11:51 Fed's Poole says subprime problems are isolated, haven't spread to banks - Reuters
Sees no signs subprime problems impacting consumer spending.

hk ab 15:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe//I think all depends on DOWJ.....

hk revdax 15:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe//Do you know of any good trading course one can take in HK at a reasonable price? Have you taken any trading course yourself?

Hong Kong Ahe 15:49 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Quoted...
Hong Kong Ahe 17:25 GMT July 19, 2007
USDJPY is still capped under 50 DMVG 122.18 which was the top in Jan and Feb of 2007. It looks like it is easy to make one day drop from current level of 121.97 down to 120.33 100 DMVG- same pattern in the drop in Jan and Feb 2007. Watch out your stop if u long it. GLGT.
Unquoted...

Now it is staying around 121.20, looking forward to hit the 100 DMVG 120.33 and EURJPY hit 166.60. NZDUSD once hit 0.7993/0.8003. Now it lies on the move of NZDJPY.

HK [email protected] 15:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
A declining DOW and a strengthening Yen may not be too positive for gold especially when a breach of the upper huge triangle may begin sending gold ~300$ more up, some bankers may not like it.
Needs caution coz things are too obvious.
I still SUSPECT yen at 120 tonight.

tokyo ginko 15:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
renter short eur/usd 13824, s-l 13855

HK Kevin 15:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 15:25 GMT, thank you. Just closed my short AUD/JPY from 107.40 last night at 106.71. The one from 107.20 was stop loss at 107.71 earlier.

dc CB 15:30 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Red-flag sale: LBO debt deals face new snags - WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports banks raising nearly $40 bln in buyout-related debt for Chrysler Group (DCX) and Alliance Boots plc are being forced to sweeten terms for investors and face delays in their sales, in another sign of turbulence in global debt markets. Chrysler is being taken over by Cerberus Capital Management and is raising $20 bln in loans as it separates from DaimlerChrysler AG. Alliance Boots is being taken over by KKR and is raising the U.S. dollar equivalent of $18.4 bln. In both cases, bankers are shopping interest payments to investors that are around a half percentage point more than originally planned. And in both cases, they're putting off plans to close the deals in the next few days. The Alliance fund raising might be delayed by months, people familiar with the situation said. The Chrysler debt sale is expected to close next week. After months of seemingly insatiable appetite for corporate debt, bond and loan investors began pushing back strongly against buyout deals in June, forcing bankers to put off fund raising for some midsize buyouts or to make the loans to these companies directly. The latest developments suggest these huge deals -- which recently came to market with few hitches -- are also facing resistance. "Two or three months ago, the banks could have said that this is the price, take it or leave it," says Gary Jenkins, a portfolio manager at Synapse Investment Management, a London debt investor. "Now the price is being dictated by investors."

hk revdax 15:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:24 GMT //How about buying Euro at mkt with a stop at 13803..

UK Alex 15:27 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:12 GMT July 20, 2007
All those loans are subprime. The way the ABX indices are divided into five tiers is misleading. I am not surprised the AAA and AA layers are taking a hit now.

hk revdax 15:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:24 GMT //i have only the time target. It is next Monday, whatever the price level will be.

HK [email protected] 15:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:15 GMT July 20, 2007
I suspect it may happen again but may not even touch the0.80. maybe somewhere between .7990 t0 .8000

hk ab 15:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
revdax, any target on dlr/chf? to me it's not very constructive. yen might move more than chf.

hk revdax 15:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:13 //because people watch Harry Potter too much...lol

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK RF, do you think Kiwi would attack your expected high again?

dc CB 15:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
DXU - US dollar index sept futures low so far 7996. last 8008

Hong Kong Ahe 15:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
What happened to sudden collapse of Dollar? Due to Earthquake? Rather busy in handling the positions.

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:54 / checking the source:

J.P. Morgan becomes largest hedge fund firm
Goldman drops to second in Alpha magazine's annual ranking
- MarketWatch May 23, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase is the world's largest hedge fund firm, narrowly edging out banking rival Goldman Sachs, according to Alpha magazine's annual industry ranking, which was released on Wednesday.

JPM had $33 billion in hedge fund assets at the end of 2006, Alpha said.

hk revdax 15:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
My short $/CHF is doing nicely while my $/CAD is being fed to the dogs. Will hold both poss into next Monday.

Global-View 15:08 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Come on guys, no food fights on a Friday. We will be glad to connect you offline to discuss this but market is busy enough today to stay focused on it.

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:05 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
mm: Perhaps you should contact Jay about my offensive posts.

USA Zeus 15:05 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Looks like many traders are about to blow their tops again out of frustration.

LOL

Gen dk 15:02 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 15:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:25 GMT July 20, 2007

I am ure you are clever enough to
1- google "respect" and learn something new today
2- PAR contribution is as good if not better than yours Dennis
3- check the rules of the forum to refresh your memory.
Keep cool man and keep smiling. You will feel better.

8+-)

dc CB 15:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:54 GMT July 20, 2007
Make your mind up!

that was yesterday when JPM was reporting and trying to boost their stock and keep the holders happy.

Today at 10:30...well "never mind"

USA Zeus 14:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
yes the investor side of the sub prime product market is almost finished. However, the housing market will take time to work out.

madrid mm 14:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Northern California Hit by Magnitude-4.2 Earthquake, USGS Says

By Dan Hart

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Northern California was shaken this morning by a magnitude-4.2 earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The temblor struck at 4:42 a.m. local time, 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) east-northeast of Oakland, California, the USGS said in a report on its Web site. The quake was 3.6 miles deep.

hk ab 14:57 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
when you think it's over, it can come back suddenly.....

hk ab 14:54 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
we may close below dlr/inx 80 today.

UK Alex 14:54 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Make your mind up!

NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters) - A closely watched gauge of investor sentiment on risky subprime home loans may not have much further to fall, analysts at J.P. Morgan Securities said during a conference call on Thursday.

"We are near, we think, a bottom in that sector," said Christopher Flanagan, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities in New York.

"The fundamental outlook for subprime credit remains very bleak," Flanagan said, referring to subprime mortgages, or home loans granted to borrowers with patchy credit histories.

"The good news, though, is that the most visible pricing in the market, the ABX index, we believe, has already priced in most of this bad news that is to come."

HK 14:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
any one buy dip on those yen crosses?

Gen dk 14:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Maribor 14:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
For AUDCAD to obey "sell on blip"mode, either AUDUSD must fall(does no look like to me) or USDCAD must fall double.

Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
most opportune time for being short aud and nzd.

dc CB 14:50 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
JP Morgan sees rate reset and refinancing problems over next 18 months - Reuters
JP Morgan forecasts more rating downgrades of asset-backed securities and ABS CDOs


Poole says non-prime mortgage market large enough to affect homebuilding activity, consumer spending - Reuters

hk ab 14:45 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hate this type of stop eating activities....

HK [email protected] 14:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Monday will be declared holiday in Japan.
No banker will dare facing the raging housewives in the banks.

Gen dk 14:41 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 14:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
RF//LOOK AT KIWI....
Those old housewives now need the help from BOJ.

hk ab 14:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If my memory serves me right, last Arma was 21st March 2002.

HK [email protected] 14:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:36 GMT July 20, 2007

I suspect that attack was designed for nightime when they are asleep.

hk ab 14:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I am just curious if we will see oil man's 1.16 on dlr/chf...

Lahore FM 14:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
correction*

Lahore FM 14:37 GMT July 20, 2007
sold audusd 0.8824 in addition to 0.8801 earlier.stops a 0.8880* for two.

Lahore FM 14:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sold audusd 0.8824 in addition to 0.8801 earlier.stops a 0.880 for two.

hk ab 14:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
busy time for housewives.

Lahore FM 14:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
stopped for 20 on usdjpy.looks like the unwind day.

HK Kevin 14:35 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK RF, Kiwi high was 7991

HK [email protected] 14:34 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Yen at ~120 may be seen tonight not sure my 119.50 will hit.
Below 119.50 it may turn to Armageddon-Friday

hk ab 14:34 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
It's the thrid dive in daily chart for dlr/jpy .... everything is possible in fx.

Maribor 14:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
For trend change I would expect some wild stop cleaning on both sides...

Maribor 14:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ab, I guess catapulation is not ready yet.

hk ab 14:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
can we have some multi-fig move on dlr/jpy?

hk ab 14:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
RF//Then, what next? CB yardsticks on kiwi?

Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ndusd short 0.7987,stops at 0.8040.

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
new albany mb 13:53 GMT

look, PAR lives in this fantasy world of "the FED is going to cut because of ......", just fill in the blank with whatever issue/point you care to use. :)

Lahore FM 14:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
long 121.40.stops at 20.

Lahore FM 14:23 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
remainder from 121.82 and 122 stopped at 121.50.closed part at 122.38.

HK [email protected] 14:23 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
The NZD may touch 0.80+-5 pips as suspected

hk ab 14:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
e/j indicative.

hk ab 14:18 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
dilema in dlr/jpy movement..... more to come then, carry-trade will be nailed.

HK [email protected] 14:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Gold near the point of "BANKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE" to repel the attack.

Gen dk 14:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 14:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:09 GMT July 20, 2007
Another journalistic error? :-))

ldn 14:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:09 GMT July 20, 2007
Was that infringement on how to make rat ta tui soup?

hk revdax 14:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:53 GMT//Lately a Chinese company in the Atlanta of US won a litigation against an US company for stealing Chinese products copyright. The legal fee is about 200 million US$.

USA Zeus 14:02 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:54 GMT July 19, 2007
next favored trade-buy gold
LOL

USA Zeus 13:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahhh midas

UK Alex 13:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
JP, We had an early estimate of $70-90 billion, so I guess Ben prefers to err on the side of caution.

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex / maybe a fresh journalist rookie then, little fogged up about million, billion, trillion ?

A $100 million loss would be just a mosquito crap on the windshield of tax-writeoffs and hardly worth of Alphoso's plane ticket cost to China. Unless of course the numbers are vastly different.

new albany mb 13:53 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR-a fall in the dow will not cause the fed to cut rates

HK [email protected] 13:51 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Any attempt by the RBNZ to apply a plan to bring down the KIWI B4 a touch of 0.80(+- 5pips) is a suicide plan, which will work for a short time only. A strike must come when that price touched or... the price will go back to that level after a wasted intervention.

PAR 13:50 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
A Dow Close below 13750 and helicopter Ben will cut Us rates . Of to the coast . Have a nice weekend .

UK Alex 13:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:38 GMT July 20, 2007
I wasn't being facetious. Here is what it says:
In congressional testimony Thursday, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said losses on subprime loans could amount to up to $100 million and threaten consumer spending. The comment was keeping investors uncertain about the housing market outlook, dealers said.

Lahore FM 13:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
yep ab for 32 pips.will see if shorting is possible towrds close.

Mtl JP 13:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:42 / was that a true piece or just you being facetious ?

for perspective Bloomberg Asia ran this little dirt:

U.S. Urges China to Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities

"..."The U.S. is urging China's central bank to buy more mortgage-backed securities after a surge in defaults by risky borrowers in the world's largest economy eroded demand for such instruments. ..."

It felt compelled to shere with anyone reading that "Its (Ginnie Mae) securities are guaranteed by the U.S. Government National Mortgage Association."

What realy strikes me is Alphonso's arrogance: "``It's not a matter of whether they're going to do more business in mortgage-backed securities,'' Jackson told reporters in Beijing. ``It's who they're going to do business with.''

LOL, the cheek of that!

hk revdax 13:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:32 GMT //I am short $/CHF and long $/CAD. I don't quite like kiwi fruits.

hk ab 13:32 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM//Have you given up the kiwi short yet?

hk revdax 13:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe and Kevin//I think the forex market is going to give all of you a surprise that even the opportunity to miss Harry Porter would be viewed as a non-event.

By the way, Kevin, if not because Harry Porter speaks English, that story would be as insignificant as many that have come and gone... Bring your daughter to a Cantonese soap opera for a change, Kevin, as the story of Harry Porter does not make an aristocrat out of anyone...

HK [email protected] 13:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Expect an action when NZD/USD=80. or at Mkt. or after Mkt. close. the Gov. cant afford such a serious quarrel with it's industrialists the same the BOJ can't afford a quarrel with it's housewives and pensioners, but seems these two cannot be accomodated simultaneously.

PAR 13:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air / I agree . But since Bernake spoke US Treasury yields keep declining sinece everybody is expecting a cut . And . The market is always right .Not the smart guy .

hk ab 13:23 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
you just need a 15 mins chart and 10 ma to trade kiwi....

Hong Kong Ahe 13:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 13:11 GMT - hi revdax, it is flying up and up to the sky. NZDUSD is going to hit 0.8000 as Japanese got the leak-out of Interest rate hike in coming Thursday.

HK Kevin 13:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 13:06 GMT, the only heart-breaking news is I can't book the movie tickets of Harry Porter for my daughter this coming Sun due to some technical problem. Even the rate hike of PBOC was widely reported in the newspapers this morning.

hk revdax 13:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:09 //And how is that balloon related to the forex mkt? Waiting to be enlightened...

Hong Kong Ahe 13:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 13:06 GMT July 20, 2007 //I am not Kevin. The earth-moving news today is that I have bought a helium_filled kiwi balloon. ;)

hk revdax 13:06 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:04//Any earth-moving news today?

HK Kevin 13:04 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Like the stock market, it's the technique of currency pick for trading in fx market nowsaday.

Lahore FM 13:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
last gold short 679.00,stopless as before.will consider stopping on close above 688.

dc CB 12:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Reuters.com reports the chief executive of KB Home said on Thursday he does not expect the overall U.S. home mkt to bottom out until the end of next year and that prices will not increase until well into 2009. "By the end of '08 it will start to stabilize," Jeffrey Mezger told Reuters. "Then it will start to go back up in '09. I think it will take a year." It was one of the most recent and grimmest predictions by an exec in the housing or housing-related industry.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:57 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:29 GMT

Have you been listening to Bernanke and other votig members of the FOMC? You will NOT see a rate cut simply to bail out Wall Street firms and investors stupid enough to have bought
junk bonds anymore the the BoJ/JPN finmin will accomodate the idiot housewives/salary men playing the Tokyo futures contracts.

The Netherlands Purk 12:56 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
10 times long loonie is also 150 pips.... Where is Dick, he has to move the range a bit, and if i say bit to Dick he will MOVE it. Enjoy.
I am flat mostly unless you have to count that kiwi short i have for positiontrade because i have to wait till the holidayseason is over....

HK [email protected] 12:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If yen does not break the 121.50 support nothing special will happen. and looks like it will be defended.

The Netherlands Purk 12:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sometimes Ab, i think you are Delboy in disguise...

UK Alex 12:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
No wonder Japanese housewives can't resist the lure of the dollar - Kyodo were reporting anticipated losses in the subprime sector as only $100 million. LOL

hk ab 12:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
gbp v. close to rekiss the 550.

Maribor 12:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:29 GMT July 20, 2007

I guess USA already borrow that 100 bio $, so that can not be counted as loss for uSA. It can be counted as pure(partial) gain for USA and (partial) loss for foreign borrowers.

Syd 12:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Germany's Ifo business climate survey for July is forecast to fall for the second straight month in line with the deterioration reported in the ZEW survey of economic sentiment.

Despite the expected drop, however, the outlook appears set to remain elevated, with manufacturing sentiment likely to be robust "in line with buoyant global conditions," according to BNP Paribas economists, who add that retail sentiment has yet to recover from the hike in the value-added tax.

On average, economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast the July Ifo to drop to 106.4.

hk ab 12:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
unless they peg kiwi with USD for a certain rate.
Curious qns is: if they REALLY do so, what would happen to the outstanding contract?

PAR 12:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
According to some big US invetsment banks the biggest beneficiuary of bIofuels would be Catterpillar . It seems KOMATSU which is the winner . Lol.

madrid mm 12:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
xau and xag on the move....

USA Zeus 12:35 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Seems like there are some GOLDen trades today.

LOL

Syd 12:35 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Get our helium-filled Kiwi dollar back to earth
“The international competitiveness of New Zealand’s food producing economy is now in grave danger
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0707/S00218.htm

tokyo ginko 12:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sold eur 1.3810, stop 1.3820, t-p 1.3680 GT all

hk ab 12:30 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
let yen do this round quietly......

GVI john 12:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
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Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
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PAR 12:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Looking for Fed rate cut to limit subprime losses to $ 100 billion . Difficult times in USA . Cost of war in Iraq close to $ 600 billion , add to that $ 100 billion in subprime losses , add to that some accounting errors and again USA needs to borrow close to a $ ONE trillion from their friends in China, Japan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia .

hk ab 12:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
THe yen just like a motor cycle to kick all supports away...

And gold is moving in tandem, Thanks god and zeus.

Syd 12:18 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
RBC Capital Markets. Expects PBOC to continue to "gradually manage USD/CNY lower, hike rates twice more this year and increase reserve requirements by another 50 to 100bps

hk ab 12:15 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
oops, unusual Friday....

Syd 12:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:09 GMT Looking at it though they could be onto something , wouldnt half be a shock and would shake some of those casino yen trades out of the system, because at some point its going to happen , as they say it wont happen overnight but it will happen :-)) saying that though it could

Hong Kong Ahe 12:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:07 GMT - I dont know, too. Japanese traders are too smart in Ninja skill. They always act behind you.

Lahore FM 12:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
stopped on gbpusd short 2.0510 at 2.0530.

reshorted at 2.0532.stops later.

UK Alex 12:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 12:02 GMT July 20, 2007
It's hardly surprising that a Chamber of Commerce is proposing a reduction in interest rates.

hk ab 12:07 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, any support you see we can go long more?

hk ab 12:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I was also faked by that RSI divergence in kiwi daily chart and SARed already in 7953 region.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
NZDJPY no sign of retreat, like fearless pioneers to explore a new world of heaven.

Syd 12:02 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Interest Rate Cut – Not Increase

Contrary to economists predicting the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates next week, the Auckland Chamber of Commerce believes a strong case can be made to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) without adding to inflation pressures.

“All the latest evidence is pointing to a deteriorating economy and domestic demand slowing in the period ahead,” noted Chamber chief executive Michael Barnett
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0707/S00355.htm

hk ab 12:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
7960 wall is now gone, next is .8000 mark. only 40 pips away.

hk ab 12:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ginko, now you see, it's a ONE way street. news leaked so people can rest assure to send this kiwi to sky.

hk ab 11:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
oh.... yen takes the lead.

tokyo ginko 11:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab: someone put a small order selling nzd even on 7955...

what is your point ?

hk ab 11:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
someone put a big order buying nzd even on 7950....

Gen dk 11:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 11:38 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Futures moving lower.

hk ab 11:35 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
but yen's correction are often "unexpected"....

hk ab 11:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Just wonder why people can forget the dangers spreading from BS so easily.

madrid mm 11:22 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, indirectly connected to FX

Hypocrisy Reigns in Anti-Takeover Defenses: Michael R. Sesit
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- How's this for disingenuous?
For years, China, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Norway and other countries have lent billions to Americans and Europeans. The money helped pay for the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit, funded consumers living beyond their means and financed budget shortfalls in the U.S., Germany, France and Italy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aQJqvIYYz4_Y&refer=home

hk ab 11:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
And Ahe, so far, no pair has breached the wall from FM!

hk ab 11:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
likely no hike again in censored?

Hong Kong Ahe 11:08 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:51 GMT - The Japanese got the leak-out today, see the NZDJPY today move in the Opening of NZ market which behaved differently from Mon to Thursday.

hk ab 10:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sorry year 2000

hk ab 10:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, this stox bubble resemble perfectly like Nasdog in 1997....

Hong Kong Ahe 10:57 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:51 GMT - I am surprised to see market news said they expected rate to raise 27BP today just before PBOC announcement. There must be a leak out too.

hk ab 10:55 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM//am interested to know what indicator gave you the signal on dlr/chf and dlr/jpy and gb/jp long? they were so dangerous on charts yesterday.

hk ab 10:51 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
it seems to me the RBNZ has the decision to hike already and leaked out.

UK Alex 10:50 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If the U.S. tightens sanctions further, all those dollars Iran holds will be like worthless bits of paper.

hk ab 10:48 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
oh come on gbp, you dun look that weak.

hk ab 10:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe//They need yen for toilet paper ;P

Hong Kong Ahe 10:43 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane Flip 10:14 GMT - Really? They think YEN will appreciate double of its current value in coming months? They want to keep reserves as YEN to buy what kind of products from the Japanese? Water, electronics TV or Toyota cars or Nuclear Plant technique?

bacau biz 10:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF:Short positions below 1.2061 with targets @ 1.203 & 1.2017 in extension.

hk ab 10:30 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
also SAR some dlr/chf to long side to see.

Mtl JP 10:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK ecom growth numbers were better than expectation in Q2 (annual 3% rate vs 2.9% expectations). Is that what pushed the swissy/gbp lower?

Mtl JP 10:19 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:51 / "...a bloated state sector that has risen from 37 per cent to 45 per cent of GDP..." really ? eh eh

lahore omy 10:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   

for gb sell it below 20530 with a target of 20470 , if anyone have any advie let me know
thanks

Brisbane Flip 10:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ahe Iran announced they want Japanese buyers of their Oil to pay them in Yen recently

lahore omy 10:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   

my opionion about euro is buy now and traget will be 13825

UK Alex 10:06 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ab, gbp/chf is looking interesting.

hk ab 10:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
especially now gb/jp well above 250.

hk ab 09:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
have a gut feeling if this gbp blast 2.0550, eur will follow to have a sharp spike to 1.4....

but where chf could be?

Maribor 09:53 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Good luck, hk ab .

Syd 09:51 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
While the epicentre of this credit crunch is America, the tremors are hitting Europe. Hardly any junk bonds have been issued for three weeks. Traders are on the sidelines, holding their breath.

When the liquidity tide does recede, and beaches the British economy, we will find out what the Brown legacy really is: a bloated state sector that has risen from 37 per cent to 45 per cent of GDP in a decade (on OECD data) with taxes to match, and that is now higher than Germany's; a budget deficit of three per cent of GDP at the top of the cycle, worse than America or Italy; a current-account deficit of 3.4 per cent of GDP; and of course our own version of America's subprime debacle - yet to hit, although arrears are already shocking.

Soon enough the British housing boom will cool, knocking away the interest-rate prop that has held up sterling. Global markets will then make a harsher judgment on Brownism.

The pound will not look so pretty, and perhaps that will help cure us of our Dutch Disease. As Churchill mused regretfully in the late 1920s after restoring Britain to the Gold Standard at a punishing exchange rate to please the City: "I would rather see finance less proud, and industry more contented."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=YMSD4XOPPMZEFQFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/opinion/2007/07/20/do2001.xml

Syd 09:48 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
China's latest rate hike no surprise, and another hike likely before end of the year, says Tim Condon, ING Chief Economist in Asia. "This is a process, not an event," says Condon, adding banks' reserve ratio hike to follow any time. "People are comfortable with one rate hike every quarter," he says.

UK Alex 09:47 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 09:43 GMT July 20, 2007
Payment in yen is very much a reality. Likely to be implemented for September-October deliveries.

Syd 09:47 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Australian 2Q CPI Unlikely To Trigger RBA Hike-Australian home owners can rest easy for now as second quarter inflation data Wednesday is unlikely to trigger a near-term rise in official interest rates.

A survey of 22 economists by Dow Jones Newswires Friday points to a likely inflation rate of 1.0% through the second quarter and 1.9% from the same period a year earlier.

Core inflation, which strips out price volatility, is likely to show a rise of 0.7% on quarter and 2.5% from a year earlier, according to the survey.

As the Reserve Bank of Australia uses a 2% to 3% inflation target to guide policy decisions, neither inflation result is expected to spark a policy response.

hk ab 09:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 09:39 GMT July 20, 2007

now I am testing it with the strongest pair, long gold position.

Maribor 09:43 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
News about payment in yen was denied.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:39 GMT - Par, Iran only accept receipt of EURO for a droplet of oil.

PAR 09:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
If japanes nuclear power stations are unsafe they need to buy more crude oil from Iran which need to be paid in yen . So at a certain moment the japanese will need to sell some dollars or face an energy crisis .

Maribor 09:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:28 GMT July 20, 2007

Rule. Furtunately has exceptions...

:-)))

manchester sc 09:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
8790 is very stubborn resistance for aussie shorts

manchester sc 09:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
8790 is very stubborn resistance for aussie shorts

hk ab 09:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
even the long eur/gbp trade is also worked against.
now I bet gbp will see 2.0550 and a blast squeezing.

V. interesting summer indeed.

Syd 09:32 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
China PBOC: Benchmark 1-Yr Lending Rate Raised To 6.84%

Hong Kong Ahe 09:30 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:21 GMT - They read your post and acted. You are Mr Yen now. GLGT

PAR 09:30 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
PBOC raises lending rates by 27bps. Will have no impact, was widely expected .

Calcutta Vikram 09:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
CHINA'S PBOC RAISES INTEREST RATES BY 27 BASIS POINTS

hk ab 09:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I found that all posted trades on gv seems to worked against. Coincidence?

Maribor 09:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Customers(SSI) are net long USDJPY... should go down.

PAR 09:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Big stops in USDJPY above 122.50. Expect US carry traders to take out the stops .

Cali mmm 09:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM, what is your view on USDJPY at the moment?

Richland QC Mailman 09:07 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Good day folks!

It would be interesting to see how cable reacts ahead of 2.0550. Looking to short on the initial attempt.

melbourne DC 09:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
chinese said something??

PAR 09:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Unlike Bernanke , Trichet will be unwilling to make comments about forex. He prefers to wine and dine at G7 meetings which never have any concete impact .

Kaunas DP 08:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
when does this GBP/USD 2.0550 expires? - TIA

Syd 08:51 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Australian 2Q CPI Unlikely To Trigger RBA Hike

Cali mmm 08:32 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
OK Thank you FM

Lahore FM 08:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 08:24 GMT July 20, 2007
yes.one and a half position.stops for all now 2.0530.

Lahore FM 08:27 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:24 GMT July 20, 2007
Bah thanx. it was a favourite setup or else i would not have made so loud a call.

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:59 GMT July 20, 2007
Lahore FM 10:34 GMT July 19, 2007
long gbpjpy 250.02,stops 249.30.target 252.00.


Hi Lahore................
Well done......
Thought we see it lower 1st...but one way up.....

GREAT call. GL

Cali mmm 08:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM, are you still short GBPUSD?

hk ab 08:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
gbp is quite interesting here.

hk ab 08:06 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
the next news waiting is China hike

Lahore FM 08:04 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:32 GMT July 18, 2007
long usdjpy 121.82,stops at 121.50.target 222.50.
--
closed 1/3rd at 122.38.

Lahore FM 08:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
yes ab.

hk ab 08:01 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
now mkt will go back to the follow suit of sub-prime stuff.

hk ab 08:00 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
FM// will u short gold at 680 as planned?

Lahore FM 07:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:34 GMT July 19, 2007
long gbpjpy 250.02,stops 249.30.target 252.00.
--

closed 1/3rd at 250.80.

Syd 07:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD made a fresh 18 year high above 0.88 Thursday however the upside momentum could wane should the greenback move to a more sustainable consolidation period, says ANZ. AUD strength may also be checked if next week's CPI numbers confirm there's little scope for the RBA to hike interest rates ahead of the election. AUD/USD trades at 0.8792 and the bank sees near-term support at 0.8790 and hourly trendline support at 0.8740, a break here would signal a more extended downside correction is underway toward the key support level of 0.8550

hk ab 07:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
there seems to be many early birds on this PPI number these 2 days.

madrid mm 07:37 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 07:11 GMT July 20, 2007

May I suggest the Bank of Japan -

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/

madrid mm 07:36 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 07:11 GMT July 20, 2007

No worries. And Pleasure.

hk ab 07:34 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
oilman, believe that our wanted pullback is in now.

Mumbai Deepak 07:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ab......CHF down due to worse than expected PPI. Came at 0.0%, vs 0.3% expected.

manchester sc 07:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
dlr/chf -where are we going we with this, suddenly jumped to 12050

Gen dk 07:27 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london av 07:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
im short aud/usd 8790 and nzd/usd 7951. can anyone suggest a good trade to hedge and what kind of price levels

hk ab 07:22 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
chf down is due to gold sale? cool reason.

Ldn 07:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Strength of the euro, which has been climbing steadily from about $1.20 since the beginning of 2006, may be starting to take its toll both economically and politically in the euro zone.

"The broad consensus that Europe is immune from euro strength might be misplaced," said Stuart Bennett, a currency strategist with Calyon Credit Agricole in London.

He noted that not only is the region's economy having to deal with a slowdown in exports, due to the higher value of the euro, it is having to face higher energy costs at the same time.

"The double whammy of energy price hikes and no end in sight for euro strength suggests that the risks to activity in the second half of 2007 are mounting," Bennett said.

So far, only the French have been objecting to the economic costs of the euro, with the new French President Nicolas Sarkozy calling for the European Central Bank to be held more accountable.

Other key leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have energetically defended the ECB's independence.

But, argues Bernard Connolly, global strategist with Banque AIG in London, this defense may not last much longer and the political heat on the ECB and on its President Jean-Claude Trichet to manage the euro's advance could soon intensify.

First, Connolly said, the ECB may be "functionally" independent, but "it cannot view itself as being able to set its own objectives."

"Clearly Ecofin (euro-zone finance ministers) can oversee the ECB's performance in maintaining price stability and in supporting general economic policies in the community," he said, adding that it is for these ministers to assess what they consider to be price stability in the light of developments in individual countries.

Connolly certainly isn't looking for Merkel to back down in her defense of the ECB at this stage. But, he said, "it may be that the German government will play up concerns expressed in the next few months by German companies about the strength of the euro."

Of course, the ECB could still push for a rate hike in September to try and prove its independence. But, the central bank could also be pressured to take the strength of the euro into account.

"That suggests to us that rate expectations for the end of this year are too high," Connolly states.

There are already signs that Germany may have to acknowledge this. The finance ministry said Thursday that second-quarter growth may have slowed slightly to 0.5%.

Adrian Schmidt, senior foreign exchange strategist at The Royal Bank of Scotland, said this will favor the dovish camp at the ECB and suggested that while the market has 75% priced in a September rate hike, such a move is not that certain.

"Spreads consequently have some potential to move in the dollar's favor in the short term and the dollar should be able to correct a little higher (versus the euro)," Schmidt said.

New euro-zone trade numbers this week didn't help much either. These showed that the surplus totaled only EUR1.7 billion, compared with the three-month average of EUR3.9 billion and forecasts for EUR2.2 billion.

Other data for the January to April period also showed the trade gap with China widening and the trade surplus with the U.S. shrinking - both reflecting the higher value of the euro.

Technical analysts suggest that the euro is also showing signs of being over-bought. Momentum remains weak and the single currency continues to back away from resistance at $1.3855. Steve Merrigan, a technical analyst at The Royal Bank of Scotland, said that while a break of that level could help the euro up to $1.650 and then $1.4215, he feels that other indicators "favor the idea of a corrective/consolidative phase."

Early Friday in Europe, the euro was trading relatively flat at $1.3801 at 0645 GMT, compared with $1.3803 late Thursday in New York.

However, it was up at Y168.71 from Y168.49 as investors once again show interest in carry trades.

The dollar was up at Y112.21 from Y122.13, helped by a reminder in the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes that inflation remains the "predominant" concern.

Plovidv Gotin 07:16 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
E/$: 1.3807 is a important Sup. leading to 1.4111(LTT from 1.2865).GTay.

Syd 07:14 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Union Urges Government To Block Proposed Sainsbury Bid

Mumbai Deepak 07:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Madrid...You are so kind. Actually, I knew about US. I wanted to learn for Japan. However, this will certainly help someone, I am sure.

Geneva....As said a couple of days back..USD-INR at 36 by 2008 mid or end. Last at 40.3150/3250

Bandung AS 07:11 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
boring friday, no movement here

Geneva 07:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 06:04 GMT July 20, 2007

Where do u see the INR long term?

madrid mm 06:59 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
It's Friday - and Eve of the 2nd Anniversary of the July 21 2005 CNY reval - watch out for PBoC rate/ reserve requirement hike or CNY reval news and talks - fact or fiction - more so after the robust 11.9%y/y Q2 GDP, and 4.4%y/y June CPI. All eyes on will be China news, China CNY and China stocks today - for any moves by PBoC.

IMF new Chief Economist Simon Johnson, said on Thursday Eur is roughly fairly valued and IMF is "comfortable" where the Euro is.

NZ Herald: Former RBNZ Gov Don Brash says NZ Interest rates could rise dramatically if the Government were to override the Reserve Bank's inflation target. Fin Min Michael Cullen raised the possibility of invoking a Reserve Bank Act provision, which has never been used, which lets the Govt override one of its central provisions, that the objective of monetary policy is price stability.

NKS: U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony lent support to the BoJ's bid to raise interest rates. BOJ officials welcomed Bernanke's comments suggesting that a monetary loosening was not likely to be carried out anytime soon. Also, Bernanke's view that the US economic outlook is stable falls in line with BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui's.

Yomiuri Survey: About 28% of people intend to vote for the Democratic Party of Japan in the nationwide proportional representation portion of the upcoming election, while 20% of those polled favor the LDP. The approval rating for the Cabinet of PM Shinzo Abe rebounded to 34.8%, an increase of 4.6% from the previous survey, marking a record high in the five Yomiuri polls.

Aust Q2 import prices +0.1%q/q vs poll of -2.5%. Q2 Export Prices +0.3%q/q versus poll of -1.7%. Motor Vehicle sales +2.2%m/m.

Focus in Asia on the high flying high yielders as Aussie, Kiwi hit fresh multi-year highs, and also focus on CNY for any PBoC rate hikes/ reserve requirement hike and CNY reval today, a Friday after strong Q2 GDP/ June CPI, and 1 day ahead of 2nd Anniversary of Jul 21 2005 CNY reval. USD/Asian seen under pressure. Global stocks firmer.

USD/JPY rose on good weekend fixing + toushin demand, hitting highs of 122.29 at 11am Tokyo time after earlier regular fixing of 122.30. Interest to buy USD/JPY, Cross/JPY on dips on back of >$3bl toushin launch today, more toushin related buying at 0600-0700GMT.

Though topside hearing pair of large Swiss houses selling good amount from 121.25-35 and capping the topside despite good toushin demand, with selling like options/ gamma related, amidst talk of Asian accounts/ China "playing" 121.50-122.50 range, buying at lows and selling at highs. More bids at 121.70-80, while offers capping topside now at 122.30-50. Focus on China, PBoC, CNY news anytime today.

AUD hit fresh 18-yr highs of 0.8814, its highest level since Valentine Day (Feb 14) on 1989 on continued real money demand. AUD/JPY hit fresh 16-year highs of 107.70.

Kiwi finally broke through 0.7950 handle, and Kiwi hit post 1985 float 22 year highs of 0.7958, as Japanese investors, toushin demand, real money buying + carry trades extend NZD/JPY gains through key 97.00 handle to 20-year highs of 97.20.

EUR/USD remains supported on dips, but good offers still capping topside at 1.3835-50, GBP/USD lower, with GBP/JPY capped ahead of 250.50, and Cable ahead of 2.0550 triggers.

Nikkei +41.25pts or 0.23% at 18,157.82. JGBs firmer, with focus on election, 10-year JGB yield -0.025% at 1.875%

Sep crude oil off highs in Asia, $75.79, -$0.13, but remaining bid on concerns over supply.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 122.06/122.29, EUR/USD 1.3792/1.3805, GBP/USD 2.0481/2.0497, USD/CHF 1.2036/1.2048, AUD/USD 0.8795/0.8814, NZD/USD 0.7930/0.7958.

madrid mm 06:45 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 06:12 GMT July 20, 2007

Please see help forum . Posted an article on the Fed funds futures and the % chance of a rate hike. Hope it helps somehow
8+-)

çesme NYAM 06:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Cıao Lahore and Bahraın and Bodrum.

usdjpy stıll dıdnt break 122.28. r/r looks good from here wıth s/l above 122.30 for 121.30.

GBPUSD on trend lıne now 2,0485 (from 10th and 13th low) lıke ıt as a buy here wıth s/r for half. I left an order wıth work to sell ın the 2.06+ regıon but ıf thıs t/l breaks ı wont see ıt.
best luck to the gv possıe ın the fıeld.

Wellington, N.Z. 06:32 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 20th:

Today’s Favored FX Trade:

My favored FX Trade for Today is USD/YEN

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

GENEVA DS 06:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
mumbai

thank for the good news... yes indeed... if eventually China starts revaluing... then India will probably let its currency go as well ? thanks

Mumbai Deepak 06:15 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
SydoJoe

Censored = Japan. If you can post a link to some chart, it would be great.

TIA

Mumbai Deepak 06:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
SydoJoe.......How does one calculate the prob of a rate hike and from which curve are you calculating it? from the 10-Year Yield or censored Libor or any other curve ?

TIA

Mumbai Deepak 06:04 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
DS......Good News! $-INR Last at 40.3175/3275.

For the first time in the last 2 months, the offer side hit a level below 40.30, at 40.2950.

The May and the 2007 Low was 40.27. Lets hope for the best!

However, the RBI is heavily defending 40.30 and if and when they go away, the dam will break.

GENEVA DS 05:42 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I think BOJ will raise 1/8 of Pct in August and that will it be for next 12 month... gl

SydoJoe 05:40 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
the market woudd be surprised if the BOJ in fact DID NOT raise rates in august................ it has it priced as a 70% probability of a hike there at the moment in aug

Singapore S 05:33 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Would BOJ increase interest rate on AUG????

Sydney ACC 05:31 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
June credit card billings fastest growth in 6 months - RB

Credit card billings rose at their strongest pace in six months in June, despite three rises in interest rates by the central bank, data showed today.

The Reserve Bank said total billings rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9 per cent last month, following a rise of 0.5 per cent in May and a fall of 0.8 in April

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452807

GENEVA DS 05:28 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
ZEUS


By the way... 8 years ago GOLD was at 13000CHF per Kilogram when Bull Started.... Yesterday .... we bougth at 26000 CHF per Kilogram.... so target must be 39000...HEHE

GENEVA DS 05:26 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus

Do agree completely... gold has broken out... and it is funny to watch... exactly 8 years ago... wenn swiss national bank and BOE decided to get rid of Gold , it was the start to the rally at 280.---USD.... , 2 weeks ago, Swiss National Bank decided again to sell part of the remaining gold, for us it was the clearest buy signal... we are positionned since about 3 month at 655 ish.... but we bought yesterday as well a big chunck of GOLD ag CHF, as we believe the CHF will have some major troubles to get stronger here in EUROPE... GOOD LUCK... c ya

Sydney ACC 05:02 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
The world has shifted in the past few years from excessive supply to excessive demand. The great disinflationary moderation of the 1980s and 1990s reflected too much stuff chasing too few buyers. We are all consumers now and that is why that fence post you couldn't find at B&Q had already been sold in Shanghai and it costs £60 to fill your car.

It's why inflation in China hit 4.4pc in June, higher than Beijing's 3pc target for the fourth month in a row, why underlying prices rose in Britain at their fastest rate for 10 years and why Ben Bernanke will be in no hurry to lower the cost of borrowing in America whatever happens in the credit markets.

Inflation will kill this market not slowing demand - but that is tomorrow's worry.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=Z4OB5C43BDQ5XQFIQMFCFGGAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/07/20/ccom120.xml

USA Zeus 04:48 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Favored trade-
Buy gold on dips/pullbacks....700-720+ is coming.

LOL

Sydney ACC 04:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Fonterra's 11,600 farmers look likely to get a payout boost averaging $250,000 each this season, double the rise forecast by Fonterra seven weeks ago, says a bank economist.

That would take the average milk payment to almost three quarters of a million dollars per dairy farmer.

Westpac economist Doug Steel said international dairy prices had risen by a further 15 per cent since Fonterra announced a record forecast payout of $5.53 per kg of milksolids in May.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452747

Van jv 04:44 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
I rather think we need a decent correctiion in USD/JPY to get that pullback ..

Syd 04:34 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:25 just listening to a report that the Aud could see a couple of days sharp correction , possibly brought on by either of these RBNZ China rate hike which could be larger than the 27bps talked about or a negative CPI under the 2.5 even the ardent bulls are calling a correction so may be a good short for 200pips

Sydney ACC 04:25 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:49 GMT July 20, 2007
Kiwi has put on a spurt towards 80 cents now and AUD picked up a further 10 pips. We need to get a good rally in the USD to support a pullback.

hk ab 04:13 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
let's see how many SARers are there in kiwi above 7950.

hk ab 04:12 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
just a piece of news and it erases all the momentum from cable?....

Syd 03:49 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:29 GMT was looking at the same also , many looking for a pullback for now

HK [email protected] 03:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 01:58 GMT July 20, 2007
123 coming, but if that breaks, everything will be in chaos.

For the time being JPY goes nowhere.

BOJ and helicopter Bernake are desparately trying to stabilize the rocking galleon against incoming tidal waves.
Before that was the Iranian oil story then the evapouration of the two hedge funds this weak.

Who knows what will be the next. So the best is to create a doldrum like environment(and earn some intereset differential meanwhile) and wait for the next tidal wave.

Sydney ACC 03:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:48 GMT July 20, 2007
Sydney ACC whats your call on the CPI ??

I haven't given it much consideration at this stage.
CBA tells me they are going for 1.2% for the quarter which will make the headline 2.1% for the year. The trend rate is expected at 0.7% for the quarter and 2.5% for the year.
While the y/y figure is within range the quarterly adjustment is high so they are looking for CPI to be AUD supportive. Personally with AUD so high and much of it booked this quarter this would act to compress price rises although much of this dampening effect may not flow through until the next quarter.

Syd 02:48 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC whats your call on the CPI ??

Syd 02:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
BOJ likely to raise interest rates in August regardless of the outcome of July 29 Upper House elections, Bank of America analyst writes; even in case of landslide loss for ruling LDP and possibility that PM Abe resigns, BOJ would need to weak economic data or prolonged equity market decline to avoid raising rates, to avoid impression that bank reacts to political developments. However, weak LDP showing could make future rate hikes more likely if party thinks it must avoid unpopular measures like consumption tax increase and abandons fiscal consolidation policy, increasing bank's inflation-fighting burden

dc CB 02:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
interesting this gold stocks index

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$xau&p=d&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

hk ab 01:58 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
123 coming, but if that breaks, everything will be in chaos.

hk ab 01:39 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
oil man, the dlr/chf bias seems have changed to UP.

USA Zeus 01:22 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
So Horrice and Laughy (names changed to protect identity) over at FX see 'em come and go have some sentiment line that wiggles. They sell people on the idea that they "know" the bias in positions and flows of the market. I just wonder why they can't seem to even match a flip the coin approach.

Oh well Laughy is happy to sell her day trade the fx market book- her boss is even happier.

LOL

hk ab 01:21 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
kiwi slowly absorbed for 5 days in a roll now, and yet, no upside spike seen yet.

Syd 01:09 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
More PBOC Hikes Tipped But Effect In Doubt -CS
China may raise interest rates once or twice more this year but 2-3 percentage point hike wouldn't be enough to cool economy, stocks, says Vincent Chan, MD of equity research at Credit Suisse; "the capital cost (on the mainland) is too low. Although China shares are expensive now, they can be even more expensive." Adds, CPI data don't well reflect surge in property prices, inflation pressure in service sector. Reasonable 1-year deposit rate should be 8-9% vs PBOC's 1-year benchmark deposit rate of 3.06%, he says.

Philadelphia Caba 01:03 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:52 GMT
it's seems only yields oriented data's are important for market now...

Syd 00:56 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:43 me too from the Midlands, they say they eat their young up there in the North and yes North of Watford ehehe , used to find that quite insulting when I was young . But the Northern People are a bit like the Aussies rough and ready. (for anything) and talking to a few old friend they are getting things are not good

hk ab 00:52 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
apart from 26th July, any important data for kiwi?

Wellington, N.Z. 00:46 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 20th:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Sydney ACC 00:43 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:29 GMT July 20, 2007
Its the MPC's call not the government. The Committee is smarting from the criticism over the lat 25 bp reduction a couple of years agoand the repercussions re housing prices and the evolution of inflation expectations. Besley and Sentance will burn the economy, King is worried not about inflation now but next year. Lower gas end electyricity prices have kept a lid on the CPI over the last couople of months but that benefit will be exhausted in months to come. Notwithstanding that those minutes showed at least a majority had an open mind. Furthermore Lomax (Deputy Governor Monetary Policy) and Bean (Chief Economist) both whom voted to maintain rates at previous levels are probably closer to to being able to read the real economy than any of the others.
Regarding Northerners, I am one myself at least by birth, I can say London doesn't give tuppence for anyone north of Watford.

Syd 00:29 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:18 from the technical perspective 8550 area looks a possiblity depending on what storm clouds are around , regards GBP the Uk govenment dont have the bottle to raise rates too far , they also are looking at an election next year , they dont want to be heading into it in recession , which I thnk will happen anyway the housing market there has all the hall marks , but the buy to let mob will cause unrest never witnessed in the UK, the Northern Folk wont put up with it for long especially when their young cant buy a home

dc CB 00:24 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Now you can buy your own Zapper.

Taser International Inc. now is shipping its latest device, designed for personal use.
The palm-sized Taser C2 will sell for $300, and is coming to a limited number of stores. The Cabela's store in Glendale is expected to have the devices on shelves in the next few weeks.

* Up to a 15-foot range from the device conducting energy that
temporarily incapacitates an attacker by overriding sensory and motor functions

* A unique anti-felon identification (AFID) technology, which disperses
20-30 serialized pieces of confetti whenever a TASER Cartridge is
deployed to help prevent and track potential misuse

* A light, sleek, hand-held design that can fit in a pocket or a purse

* Available in four designer colors: Black Pearl, Titanium Silver,
Electric Blue, and Metallic Pink

* A safety cover and trigger design that users can easily operate with
their thumb

Sydney ACC 00:18 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:41 GMT July 19, 2007
I agree with your view on the USD against EUR and GBP.
On the euro the market hasn't been able to puncture 1.3820 properly. The MPC minutes raised doubts about further interest rates when at the same time the market has factored in two further increases. On this basis there are good prospects for a dollar bounce against the majors. Aussie is a different fish. Look at Chucks postings on grains. The wheat harvest is going to be a bumper and for the first time ion a decade the farmers will be abkle to combine it with good prices. The rural sector next year will do well. the market is ignoring interest rates in Australia. The flow is ointo equities into BHP and Rio. If next Wednesday's figure is low and for arguments sake Aussie does fall back to 0.8550 it'll get hoovered up and be back at 0.8800 within a week.
Aussie has never behaved like this since the float.
It is a different paradigm.
In some respects tghe environment is not too dissimilar to 1972. High commodities, low AUD prior to the election in December and a Liberal government on the nose and internal bickering with Whitlam outgunning McMahon in the polls.
"It's time" was the Labor Party's theme then and probably now.

Philadelphia Caba 00:06 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
sold aussie again, just 1/2 pos., at 8801, s/l 8856, t/p 8655

USA Zeus 00:04 GMT July 20, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 22:24 GMT July 19, 2007

Interesting info on grain. Good strategic reasons to keep the subsidy going too. Who wants to produce such good metabolic foods if you can't make a living? This keeps production high and the US with a strategic food source.
Best of all is you can't help the poor (by feeding them with surpluses) and needy by becoming part of the problem.
Now I'm sure someone thinks this is political and wants to complain that someone else shared an idea after it was mentioned but it further exemplafies the stability of the US and the reasons for which the world has chosen the USD among all other options as the primary currency to peg (piggyback) and hold as their reserve currency regardless of anyone's predictions of the future.

 




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