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Forex Forum Archive for 07/22/2007

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Syd 23:36 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Quitting in droves
“The CMA’s preferred action would be a 3 percent cut in interest rates. This move would increase import costs, slow consumer spending, and along with a fall in the NZ Dollar, speculators, Japanese housewives and Belgian dentists would experience some of pain that our exporters are feeling.

Syd 23:33 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:30 dont think they will raise, and on a very very outside chance will use the meeting to annouce something new , just a hunch just see the economy cracking if they raise rates further.

Philadelphia Caba 23:30 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd, ACC whats your bet on Thursday's RBNZ ? tia!

Syd 23:27 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:14 GMT yes I also missed the spike , dont see a hike as I say most are standing back on the USD as the best of the two evils , see UK raising to 6% always have since they cut .

Wellington, N.Z. 23:20 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 23rd:

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Sydney ACC 23:14 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Well Syd do you see any sort of pullback for AUD/USD after Friday night's volatility. I had an early night (11:00pm)and missed the hi-jinx. When I departed Aussie was 95/00 and was the same at New York close yet we had a 50 point range in the meantime.
USD is still looking anaemic but euro just doesn't seem to able to go on with it.
CPI Wednesday probably all important for Aussie, too early for most of the benefit from the appreciation to have filtered through so with higher prices of foodstuffs from tghe floods in NSW and Victoria the risk is to the upside. Still can't see it being enough though for RBA to move.
Cable - RBS calling it up to 2.07 this week, again no pullback since it started it's run.

Syd 22:54 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Australian 2Q CPI reading crucial for AUD this week; anything less than +0.7% core CPI on-quarter will weigh heavily on AUD and particularly on AUD/NZD, says RBC senior currency strategist Sue Trinh. Dow Jones survey shows economists expect core inflation, which strips out price volatility, of +0.7% on-quarter and +2.5% from a year earlier. If RBNZ hikes rates as RBC expects this week, the confluence of events would see AUD/NZD back below 1.09, Trinh says. Pair currently 1.10.

Maribor 22:41 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
I guess change in CHF CME net positioning make it possible for USDCHF to break down.

Patra alex 22:35 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 20:46 GMT July 22, 2007

Still in position?

Syd 22:20 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Aussie CPI Unlikely To Trigger Near-Term Hike
Australia's 2Q CPI reading unlikely to trigger near-term rise in official cash rate of 6.25%, with Dow Jones Newswires survey of 22 economists pointing to likely inflation rate of 1.0% through 2Q and 1.9% from same period a year earlier. Survey shows core inflation, which strips out price volatility, likely to show rise of 0.7% on quarter and 2.5% from a year earlier. Data due 0130 GMT Wednesday. RBA uses inflation target of 2%-3% and most economists expect central bank to hold rates until at least early 2008.

Sydney ACC 22:07 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg is predicting:
AUD/USD 1.0230
NZD/USD 0.9495

Mtl JP 21:41 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:32 / gravity always exists and is alway at work in one way or another: sometimes it allows the dollar to rise, some other time the Shanghai index and at another yet the smoke of various dreams.

Mtl JP 21:33 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Thx Zeus, time will tell who is Truthteller you or Heebner. IF Heebner is anywhere near close, should see l/t int rates move UP over time.

nj jf 20:55 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (AFP) - Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) is likely to suffer extra costs of at least 1.7 billion dollars after its nuclear power plant was damaged by an earthquake last week, a media report said Sunday.

nj jf 20:53 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
all i see is the nuclear accident is alot worse than the company let on.. now they call in inspectors to clarify the situation because of potential damage to tourism in the area etc/ the company running the facility is in alot of problems now.

anyone see anything else be sure to put it out there

The Netherlands Purk 20:46 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 20:28 GMT July 22, 2007

Than do me a favour and make some nice profit on this one!

new york 20:30 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
any jpy news

Patra alex 20:28 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Purk. I always look at your JPY trades with respect.

The Netherlands Purk 20:26 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Can not post entries taken after the deed Alex. But if we are going under 16840 i will closed half the size.

Alaska Moon 20:25 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
10007 20:21 GMT July 22, 2007
The forum rules require using a reconizable location...

Patra alex 20:23 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Which one? short I guess. What's your target?

The Netherlands Purk 20:22 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 20:16 GMT July 22, 2007


Florida Crom: LOL

10007 20:21 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
does anyone know why u/jpy and crosses are higher

Florida Crom 20:16 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:57 GMT July 22, 2007
Guess i just witnessed spikes in yen pairs.

That makes you the censored criminal

Patra alex 20:16 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:57 GMT July 22, 2007

Are you in a JPY trade?

USA Zeus 20:07 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:27 GMT July 21, 2007

ALT-A includes much more than you mentioned. Some require a lot of documentation and many ALT-A borrowers have excellent credit. 40% of ALT-A loans are NOT going to go sour. Much different paper than sub-prime

Patra alex 20:03 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Short EUR/JPY 168.91

The Netherlands Purk 19:57 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Guess i just witnessed spikes in yen pairs....

london av 19:56 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
any views on cable. 20580 first or 20480?

Florida Crom 19:29 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:18 GMT July 22, 2007

What you smoke, dude?

Lahore FM 19:18 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
1.2825 eurusd,1.2012 usdchf and gbpusd dipping to 2.04 last three days but getting back up.think usd has these the currencies on ropes despite itself being on the defence.adding to this strong usdcad,and sooner rathen than later,usdchf and we will have an across the board usd rally which will to a great degree be result of complacency with weak us dollar.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:14 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

TOKYO NICK 16:19 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
may i know where can check the rollover interest for each currency?

Belgrade Sammy 15:04 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
While waiting for markets to open
I find Sunday especially boring, this day one should rest and dedicate time to some other things, but Forex. We have tried many things to keep us preoccupied, and except going out on a boat, one finds itself running in circles, waiting for markets to open. Unfortunately we are not living on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea anymore, and the luxury of boat escapes are, for now, out of reach. Having nothing better to do, I'll do the unthinkable and open charts, just to see what might happen with Euro on Monday.

I guess you all know that trend remained intact, and there is no change in view. Support at 1.3780 held beautifully on Friday, and we managed to get ourselves to a new high at 1.3843. Buying at 1.3800 area might be the game plan for tomorrow, but for that I'll have to wait for market to open .Only 10 hours to go.

Strictly technically speaking, pair was already overbought on 29th of June, and now it is so squeezed, that I can't bring myself to look at indicators anymore. You will ask: "Can it drop then, if it is so overbought as you claim?" , and the only thing I can answer to that question is YES. Never the less, I have seen it before, and it can continue to rally without correction as well. So carefully, carefully, carefully is my main strategy for Monday. Tight stops in place, and lets see what happens.

Philadelphia Caba 14:11 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Oily, did you use aussie friday dip to 8760 for a new long pos?

Monaco Oil man 11:49 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
New Trend in CAD crosses

the call spread is still cheap.

Good trades and Good Weekend!

Mtl JP 10:36 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
U.K. Rate May Reach 6% as Soon as August, Ernst & Young to Say - Bloomberg

Mtl JP 10:14 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
from the Global-View economic calendar

Mon, Jul 23, 2007
00:30 AU 2Q07 PPI m/m cons +0.8% prev 0.0%
00:30 AU 2Q07 PPI y/y cons +2.0% prev +2.8%

london av 08:43 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
any indications on the aussie ppi figures? will these confirm a likely rate raise or not. i am currently short aussie at 8810

Wellington, N.Z. 00:05 GMT July 22, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 23rd:

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