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Forex Forum Archive for 07/23/2007

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hk ab 23:59 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
keep an eye on eurgbp.....

eur is now being attacked in tandem by all crosses..eur/jpy, eur/gbp, eur/chf.

Syd 23:45 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
So many that these illegally rented out sheds and garages are needed to house them all. They have been swept here by border changes across Europe and are now testing how we deal with mass immigration
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/panorama/6908390.stm

hk ab 23:38 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
mkt always like to suck the last drain of blood, made me to remember the guy short XAG here 2 years ago... and his blood all went to the river before the huge retracement came.

hk ab 23:32 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
zeus, good call on gbp.

look at tha energized kiwi fruit. I think target moved to .84 now.

USA Zeus 23:28 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD and GBP/USD have made it to their annual inst'l targets. They feel tired as do I. Perhaps it is a good time to go fishing for blue marlin.

Syd 23:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Newspoll also has opposition Labor leading Coalition 55-45%, though narrowing from 56-44% in previous survey. Most analysts expect general election around October/November.

Patra alex 23:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Here we go

Syd 23:14 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/NZD Under Pressure; To Target 1.08 - RBC
AUD/NZD under pressure and finally going some way to catching up to narrowing of Australia-New Zealand 90-day bill spread which has fallen to 19-month low of -200 bps, says RBC senior currency strategist Sue Trinh. AUD/NZD currently 1.0966 from high of 1.1052. "We remain of the view this cross has further downside in the near term and target a move to at least 1.08," Trinh says.

Syd 23:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Australia Costello Can't Save Coalition At Election-Newspoll
Replacing Prime Minister John Howard with Treasurer Peter Costello would not help the governing Coalition defeat the opposition Labor Party at a general election later this year, according to a Newspoll voter survey published Tuesday in The Australian newspaper.

Patra alex 23:08 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
There should be large stops under 167

Syd 22:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Is buying fake a faux pas?
http://www.reuters.com/news/video/videoStory?videoId=61342

Sydney ACC 22:52 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:36 GMT July 23, 2007
Without putting a number on it the night desk indicated that it was substantial and repetitive.
Despite the market being bullish on Aussie it has fallen back under the 1.10 level on the cross and continues to weaken now.

Syd 22:45 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson repeated on Monday that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and currency values should be set in free and open markets.

"We feel very strongly, I do, that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest," Paulson said on CNBC television. "The dollar's value should be determined in a competitive marketplace, baseds upon underlying economic fundmaentals
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2338169520070723?rpc=44

Philadelphia Caba 22:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:28 GMT
just wondering if if flow in aud/nzd is so significant for nzd/usd. thanks ACC.

Sydney ACC 22:28 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:03 GMT July 23, 2007
Australian banks in London reported significant AUD/NZD selling throughout the day.

GVI john 22:12 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Philadelphia Caba 22:03 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
The NZD received special attention in the past 24-hours due to the building consensus that the RBNZ will have to hike rates 25 BPS to 8.25% when they announce on Thursday, more NZD-uridashi issuance and potential NZD-positive M&A flows emanating from the possible partial 2.6 BLN NZD sale of Auckland Airport to Dubai Aerospace. (thmns)

can anyone more elaborate on kiwi issuances & maturities in August, pls? tia

Syd 21:46 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD near 18-year high of 0.8843 reached last night, at 0.8840 in early Asian trading, on back of resurgent NZD, says Suncorp strategic analyst Peter Pontikis. Pair could find resistance at 0.8850 today with rumors of significant AUD/USD selling interest in upper 0.8800s, with support due at 0.8820. Pontikis says can't see much of any new reason to buy either AUD or NZD once Australia's 2Q CPI and RBNZ rate meeting out of way this week.

Cali mmm 21:08 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Ok got it. Tks!

Wellington, N.Z. 21:08 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   

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Lahore FM 21:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
that's right mmm.

USA Zeus 21:05 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Cbj Jake 20:59 GMT July 23, 2007

Jake- I'm sure we are like old friends.
GT :-)

Cali mmm 21:03 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM, are you short NZDUSD with a target to 0.78?

Philadelphia Caba 21:00 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM, I'm on the same boat. good trade mate!

Cbj Jake 20:59 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus (18:09)- Ah, you make me laugh more than you make me itch. Now you know that was naughty! You know, in the flesh,I think I would really enjoy you - politics included!

USA Zeus 20:56 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Next favored trade: EUR/JPY

Lahore FM 20:55 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
0.7800 Caba.

Cali mmm 20:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
I see FM. Thank you!

Patra alex 20:51 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Let's see if jpy will do it again once again after 24 hours..

Philadelphia Caba 20:51 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:19 GMT

FM, what target are you looking for on that trade?

Lahore FM 20:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
mmm,am already long from 2009 and 2017.looking for said targets.there is some delinking of chf and jpy in matter of carry unwind.i had been looking for it last week and it is now actually happening.hope the delinking solidifies further and we will likely have higher usd lower usdjpy and higher usdchf.

London NYAM 20:34 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 20:19 GMT July 23, 2007 // you got me ;)
i just want to see a sign that this leg (looks like a final 5wave c, really is just about done...
by the way, stop under 61.8 retrace 1t .6661 might be just a tad safer. if we even get there .6700 even is the 50 mark for support. lets see...

Cali mmm 20:30 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
So you will be looking to long it around 120.30ish also?

Lahore FM 20:28 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
mmm,from jpy action usdchf likely to come to 1.2035/40 and from there try for 1.2140/60.

Cali mmm 20:25 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, what is your target for USDCHF ? TKS!

Patra alex 20:24 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:47 GMT July 23, 2007

Perfect scenario for another dip on JPY pairs

Lahore FM 20:20 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 20:19 GMT July 23, 2007
sure,guess you want it to play around a bit before jumping on.gtgl!

Lahore FM 20:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
removed stops for nzdusd sells.jpy and rbnz will do it for me.

London NYAM 20:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:19 GMT July 23, 2007//nice trade. will join in the morrow. gl

The Netherlands Purk 19:47 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Hmmm e/j does the tick tick to the low thingy. for me that means shorting can continue. 16653 to beat. Upside: there is nothing till the spike of 169....

ras tanura 19:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
:)

Lahore FM 18:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
long eurgbp 0.6709,stops 0.6670.target 0.6800.

USA Zeus 18:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 23, 2007
Today's favored trade-
Sell GBP/USD over 2.06


LOL

Mtl JP 18:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 16:13 / could be. As I have indicated, I use Bollinger as as a warning, not a lone signal.

ex just posted on GVI a few mins ago:
Sell dlrchf
Entry: currentahead of 85 Target: 1.1850ish Stop: close above 1.2090


I take the possie because I have 2 or more signals coinciding, some being:
a) 10-2 Bollinger at 1.2075 on closing values.
b) down-sloping Resistance line at 1.2085ish on my chart

BIG Note: any specific level is not 100% important, rather a consistently sticking to your signals signaling enter/exit far more important. Key: consistent.

The Netherlands Purk 17:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
If e/u will take the same pattern as in the e/j we will seemore downside tomorrow, as a result of unfinished business of today and usd strenght....
But (t) beware of the sudden bounces. MIW take profit on strange times of the day...

The Netherlands Purk 17:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Loonie does it very well. We will have to see if profittaking by MIW does not lead by a new fall.
Flight has to bring us to 10504.
Still 10439 not seen as a steady base. we will see manana...

PAR 17:26 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
New carry trades and almost certain Ozawa victory in Japanese elections are underpinning USDJPY .

Lahore FM 17:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
the elements of jpy crosses unwind are still in place.weakening currencies from top of range and weaker usdjpy and much more of it impending is the perfect recipe.

Lahore FM 17:18 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
nice rally for usd!

Mumbai Deepak 17:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Hi Friends.....

Can any one who has Bloomberg post the chart of ADXY (J P Morgan - Bloomberg Asia Currency Index - ex Yen). Long term weekly and short term from 2007 daily. It shows the real strength of Asian currencies against the USD.
Please post it in GV Blog or any where else and give a link.

TIA.

Lahore FM 16:56 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 14:24 GMT July 23, 2007
will see about it dear,in due course.

hk revdax 16:13 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
JP//Using 10-2, i am getting 1.0546 of $/CAD. Is that where you would place the stop?

Mtl JP 16:10 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
10-2 Bollinger on daily audusd might be case in point, fwiw.

Mtl JP 16:06 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
revdax 15:57 / fwiw, I use Bollinger band as warning only on daily or longer timeframe chart. For initial estimate on steep slopes try 10 day with 2std.

USA Zeus 15:59 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
yes trillions in mortgage paper is good. I only need a few bps from all that paper.

LOL

hk revdax 15:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP //According to your reading of the Bollinger band, where would you recommend a stop for shorting (...or buying)$CAD? TIA

Mtl JP 15:54 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus / what is new is the newly reported line item 34 on page 13 of the July 20, 2007 Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.8 (Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States)

34 Securitized real estate loans 12: 1,211.0 (Jul 4) 1,214.6 (Jul 11)
Not seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars

USA Zeus 15:50 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Merket sentiment shifting in some regions from "wait and see if prices go lower" to "bargain shopping".

Many lenders were not properly positioned and over exposed. The field is white. Will start new ALT-A mortgage co tomorrow to capture enormous market share as the weak have taken flight.

Syd 15:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Buy-to-let repossessedBuyers of new-build flats whose developers offered financial incentives have seen the value of their investment plummet and the rental income struggle to cover the mortgage, writes Paul Farrow

Investors who gambled on rising house prices are getting their fingers burnt despite survey after survey claiming that the buy-to-let market is stable.At an auction room in Covent Garden on Thursday, 52 of the 179 flats and houses that went under the hammer were on sale "by order of the mortgagee" - in other words, they were repossessed properties

USA Zeus 15:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:36 GMT July 23, 2007

Old hat meaning nothing new to report. Seems the buzz is still here among headlines but quickly fizzzzzzling.

After USD gains strength they'll be late to report the fashion shift as usual but it will be the buzzzzzzzzzz.

Mtl JP 15:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 15:31 / it already is "old hat"; only trick left now is how to pass the bag to next bagholder.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:35 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong when it can trade above the barrier at 1.2103 // 1.2128.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It could be a leading indicator.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:31 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:23 GMT - May be 1.0347.

USA Zeus 15:31 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Yes mortgage CDO tranch risk will soon be old hat.
New fashion statement will be USD as we previously discussed.

hk revdax 15:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:07//How low can $/CAD do this week? tks

Hong Kong Qindex 15:14 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is vibrating around 0.8829 with an expected magnitude of 0.8810 - 0.8847 for the time being. Projected supporting and resistant point is 0.8792 and 0.8865 respectively.

Stockholm za 15:13 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   

“…risk takers have been encouraged by a perceived increase in economic
stability to reach out to more distant time horizons. These actions have been
accompanied by significant declines in measures of expected volatility in equity
and credit markets inferred from prices of stock and bond options and narrow
credit risk premiums. History cautions that long periods of relative stability
often engender unrealistic expectations of its permanence and, at times, may
lead to financial excess and economic stress.” - AG

Hong Kong Qindex 15:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.0481. Projected barriers are expected at 1.0392 and 1.0437.

Syd 14:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
US Dollar: High Level of Commercial Interest Indicates Reversal Potential
US Dollar Index: Implied net positioning continues to decline and is now at -170,752. Net positioning is inching towards where it was when bottoms were formed in December 2005, June 2006, and November 2004. Our commercial interest index is at 100, which is extremely bullish. The last 100 reading was in early December 2006 when the EURUSD topped out at 1.3364 and fell 5 figures (500 pips). We are expecting the dollar to begin at least a multi week rally in the next few weeks. dfx

hk ab 14:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Did RBNZ fire this asian session?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is vibrating around 2.0562 with an expected magnitude of 2.0533 - 2.0590. A projected barrier is located at 2.0619 and a projected supporting point is positioning at 2.0504.

madrid mm 14:31 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
``Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success.''
Warren Buffet, 2007

He should know I guess 8+-)

hk ab 14:29 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
crucial support eur/gbp

Maribor 14:24 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM, customers are net long USDCHF. Little probability they are right...

hk ab 14:21 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
I hope mkt can kindly offer Zeus's gbp entry.....

hk ab 14:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//that was a spike related to election saying Abe has no hope.
Mkt tells use the real scenario is the other way round.

Lahore FM 14:14 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
AB,chf and jpy less joined at the hip than they were Friday and this is what i was looking for.chf to continue plummeting it seems.

Lahore FM 14:11 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
from gvi

Lahore FM 14:09 GMT July 23, 2007
Buy AudNzd
Entry: 1.1022 Target: 1.1220 Stop: 1.0950

looks good to me on 4 hour chart so buying here.

HK Kevin 14:10 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:44 GMT, I just came back from Guangzhou. Looking at the charts, did USD/JPY trade at 122.20 in early Aisan hours?

Lahore FM 13:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 20, 2007
ndusd short 0.7987,stops at 0.8040.
--

raised stops to 0.8060.sold one more at 0.8026.

hk ab 13:44 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Is today holiday? or mkt is too puzzled by all pairs movement?

hk ab 13:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
suggest just leave aud and kiwi alone and see what can happen.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : In the mean time the market is vibrating around 1.3819 with an expected magnitude of 1.3802 - 1.3836. Projected supporting and resistant point is expected at 1.3750 and 1.3887 respectively.

hk ab 12:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy MIB can come at any second....

Hong Kong Qindex 12:31 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is stable when it is trading above [1.1956]. It is now working on the barrier at 1.2035 // 1.2061. A barrier is located at 1.2054.

USA Zeus 12:27 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:47 GMT July 23, 2007

No change in views at this time.
GT :-)

hk ab 12:25 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
the chf weakness on crosses go uncontrolled.

hk ab 12:24 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
I have a feeling that the gold strength is yen related.

Lahore FM 12:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:59 GMT July 20, 2007
than Alimin.last long usdchf added 1.2013.stops 1.1990.
--
stopped at 1.1990.
-

still carrying two longs from 1.2017 and 1.2009.if these two had stops they would have been taken quite unecessarily just as 1.2013's stop was taken.

hk ab 11:55 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
still wonder why chf is so weak.....

gold will enter the buy zone soon.

Lahore FM 11:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
additional sell on gbpusd 2.0567,earlier at 32.stops for both at 2.0610.

GVI john 11:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Lahore FM 11:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
sold gbpjpy 249.50,tentative stops at 250.30.target 247.50.

Sydney ACC 11:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Morgan Stanley also issued a warning on 7th June on equities.
Sydney ACC 03:21 GMT June 7, 2007
Morgan Stanley issues triple sell warning on equities. Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?_DARGS=/core/lowerHeaderBarWideFrag.jhtml

Syd 11:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Strong euro 'fling' could end in German tears
Predicting exchange rates is a mug's game, as they say. It is clear that the euro is significantly overvalued. But there are non-trivial structural risks that the euro may appreciate further in the short-to-medium term. Of course, it may never happen. But if it does, Mr Steinbrück will not only have to eat his words. More worryingly, he and his European colleagues will have no idea what to do under these circumstances.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6a27b352-3334-11dc-a9e8-0000779fd2ac.html

Sydney ACC 11:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Morgan Stanley has warned that current jitters on the global credit markets could spread to equity markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/23/cnmorgan123.xml

Mumbai Deepak 11:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
DS....Should 40.00 break, I would expect 38.00 - 37.50 in 6 months, as this time the decline in the USD may be slow. Last time around after 44.00 broke, the pair fell sharply as most of the Indian export companies had to sell at what ever was the price on the screen. Therefore, this time the gain may be slow.

Would any one believe that at one point of time, USD-INR was trading 4.0% below its 200-HR average in Apr and May. I had never seen such a move in such a short time in my 7 year in the currency markets.

6-Month 40.00 USD Put INR Call at 54 Paise in INR. Breakeven is at 39.484

Ldn 11:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
"The result itself won't directly affect the bond market,"
TOKYO, July 23 (Reuters) - A big defeat for Japan's ruling bloc in an upper house election this Sunday could trigger selling in stocks and the yen while boosting Japanese government bonds, but many market players believe any reaction would be temporary.

"Politics and its uncertainty hasn't affected the real economy," said Koji Ochiai, a senior market analyst at Mizuho Securities.

"The election result is unlikely to affect expectations for a BOJ rate hike as early as next month if the loss is more or less within projections," said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"If anything, the more uncertainty in politics, the more determined (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui would be in conducting monetary policy with an open mind."

Ochiai said. "But if stocks fall so sharply as to raise concerns about recovery, bonds may be bought, but it will be short-lived."

If stocks fall sharply on a big defeat for the ruling camp, investors could close out risk exposure and unwind yen carry trades that were established by selling the low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies and assets. Such unwinding could push the yen higher.

Mumbai NS 11:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM tks even i have shorted with the long term basket having stops abv 90cents and short term baskets having stops close to 8860 and for the long term basket now have target below 80 cents........if u remember last close to 75 cents we had a long term target abv 80 cents .....those days when i used to write more frequently....gl gt

Lahore FM 11:16 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:58 GMT July 23, 2007
yep Aussie's sell is not a bad idea.just sold at 40.

Gen dk 11:14 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 11:12 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Technicals Favor JPY Strength - Lehman

GENEVA DS 11:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak

Where would you see a 6 month target on USDINR after an immediate break of 40.00 now ? thanks

HK [email protected] 11:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
After the market cleared likely most of the early sell-NZD birds, remain to see if the RBNZ has any policy except looking like goats on their currency.

Syd 11:06 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Homeless report
The number of Australians seeking emergency shelter has reached record levels, according to a new report by the St Vincent de Paul Society.

http://www.skynews.com.au/story.asp?id=180537

Mumbai Deepak 11:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
DS..............The Dam surely has to break. Look at KRW, SGD and all the Asian Currencies. They are all in the same position as the INR. I look for “Commonality” in the markets and the IMO, the SGD is leading.

The SGD rallied from 1.5090 (Apr-07) to its 200-MA of 1.5458 (June) in 8 weeks, while it has plunged to new lows in the next 4 weeks. This shows that where and which side the big money, and stronger hands are!!!

Mumbai NS 10:58 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM hi frd tks for the info i also feel it's kin aussy might be interesting now wat say gl gt

Lahore FM 10:52 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
NS dear it is on wednesday 26th July at 2100 gmt.i am looking for further sells on nzd a day before or even sooner.levels now aren't bad either.

Mumbai Deepak 10:52 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Envy is the silliest of the sins. You suffer and the other guy isn't affected. ---Charlie Munger

GENEVA DS 10:47 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
mumbai

tks for informing about USDINR.... very interesting indeed, just confirms the overall bearishness of USD.... eventually this 40.00 dam will have to break... tks... gl

hk ab 10:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
london av 10:36 GMT July 23, 2007

'cos they sell gold.... LOL

Syd 10:37 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
OPEC Oil Data Head Sees Fair Oil Price At $60-$65/Bbl
Current Oil Price "Quite High" - OPEC Oil Data Head

Sydney gerald 10:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
before last Friday, GDP rate announcment, favoured to investor's expectation, GBP/JPY still dropped 100bp from 250 level.

london av 10:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
why hasnt chf picked up along with other majors against usd?

Mumbai NS 10:35 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Deepak tks for the info......yes usdinr now looks like targetting lower as central bank is slowly bringing the lvls lower and the slow and steady slide in place .....btw i am not a short term player anywhere........and here also fwds going in discount are advising me caution and so i am not initiating any fresh shorts atm gl gt

Mumbai Deepak 10:29 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:07 // RNNZ is 0230 AM our time (IST) Thursday morning.

BTW, do you see the USD-INR Breaking to new lows on a sustained basis this time around?

Geneva DS.....USD-INR touched a low of 40.24 Intraday today, its new 9+ year low. Last at 40.2925/3025.

Patra alex 10:29 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:34 GMT July 23, 2007

Closed at 147.434 for 6 pips

Short USD/CHF 1.2035

Syd 10:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
China's government will use macroeconomic controls to prevent the economy overheating, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Monday, citing Finance Minister Jin Renqing.

PAR 10:18 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Buba, German 2Q economic growth slowed from 1Q .

Philadelphia Caba 10:11 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:07 GMT
buy the rumour sell the fact ..(?)

hk ab 10:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
what's a good "reason" for usd buying? and look this kiwi..... again, don't tell me Thur is a no hike.

Mumbai NS 10:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM gud day when is rbnz announcement pls

Sydney gerald 10:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
gbp/jpy, back to 250.50 before Wed, shouldn't be a big problem.

Gen dk 10:00 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney ACC 09:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:55 GMT July 23, 2007
For reasons - read guesses.

Syd 09:55 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ABN Amro puts forward a trio of reasons for the sharp JPY gains seen Monday. The bank says rising risk aversion caused Japanese investors to either reduce or hedge foreign investment holdings. Another is position trimming ahead of the Diet elections at the end of this week while the third is that JPY tends to rally between July and November for seasonal reasons, so the market may be trying to get ahead of itself.

Syd 09:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Direct investment in hedge funds is not for the Retail Investor
Anthony Limbrick, Chairman of the New Zealand Absolute Return Association, the organization representing the New Zealand hedge fund industry says "it is the New Zealand Absolute Return Association position that retail investors should not be encouraged to invest directly in hedge funds. They do not have the resources, the understanding, nor the experience to judge whether such an investment is appropriate for their investing needs."

Sydney gerald 09:52 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FM, I agree. settle all carry trade position before NZ & AUD announcment.

Syd 09:51 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:50 yes agree no rate hike in my view , they would be bonkers , thats why they dont bother to intervene ;-))))

Lahore FM 09:50 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:24 GMT July 23, 2007
sell before the rbnz announcement.

Sydney gerald 09:48 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
I reckon Wednesday will be a tuning point. wheather, favour or unfavour result of NZ gdp & Aus cpi will be a tragger of further unwound. China's coming rate decision will be a major tragger as well.

london av 09:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
gerald, do you see this heading back upto 251 and beyond?

PAR 09:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Boj mamaged to stabilise USDJPY above 120.75 danger zone .

Sydney gerald 09:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
av, commodity pirces are still strong, CAD is picking up after the unwound last Friday~~!

Sydney gerald 09:38 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
carry trade will pick up again soon on gbp/yen due to the i/r gap, and expectation for another rate rise this year.

london av 09:35 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
views on GBP/Yen?

Syd 09:24 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:22 GMT hi, any view on Kiwi here ? many thanks

Sydney gerald 09:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ab, the mortgage default rate is on safely level in Aust & NZ, also the property mkt in Aust is picking up.

MLT PA 09:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Fed Couldn't Do What Trichet Has Done to Sarkozy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aXSszA6YnycQ

Lahore FM 09:22 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
usdchf headed much higher from here.

Lahore FM 09:22 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
audusd shorts from 0.8800 and 0.8820 area stopped at 0.8830 for almost break even due to partial profits at 0.8767 on friday.

--
short again at 0.8840.stops at 0.8890.

Syd 09:12 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
It doesnt just happen in the USA once interest rates bite the world comes tumbling down no matter what part of the Globe you live

House price rises 'will grind to a halt' as interest rates bite
The housing market will shudder to a virtual standstill next year as aggressive interest-rate hikes finally start to bite, a leading forecasting group has warned.
Houses are currently overvalued by as much as 16 per cent, it warns.

An interest rate hike to 6 per cent will end the property market boom, ushering in a decade of stagnation, it says.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23405403-details/House+price+rises+%27will+grind+to+a+halt%27+as+interest+rates+bite/article.do

NY tim 09:10 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
RBS just bought 500mlo EUR/USD

Syd 09:09 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
A little reminder of earier post.
``The New Zealand property market is the canary in the coal mine,'' Henderson said. ``The currency is very closely linked to the property market so if that starts to crack the kiwi's high- flying days are numbered.''

A drop in the New Zealand dollar would erode returns for investors profiting from so-called carry trades, in which they borrow the yen to buy higher-yielding assets. The decline would be a welcome relief for exporters, who have been firing workers and moving factories overseas. They make up 30 percent of the nation's $102 billion economy.

New Zealand Dollar May Drop, Standard Chartered
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8UGe8Aemypk&refer=asia

hk ab 09:06 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
where on earth can sub-prime problem be escaped?
Wonder how NZ people can manage theirs as well.

NY tim 09:04 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
heavy eur/usd buying ahead of 1.38

sydney ge11ja 09:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:57 GMT July 23, 2007

mmmm think you will find it makes no difference

Syd 09:00 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Friday's European credit downgrades by S&P is one sign that suprime worries and widening credit spreads are not just a US story, says Royal Bank of Scotland.

hk ab 08:59 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Does FED care the 80 line much? or just by coincidence that this line is always guarded by luck?

hk ab 08:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ge11ja, when people dive into the mkt without any indicators, nothing can be easily predicted.

Is chf weakening 'cos someone mentioned earlier? due to their gold sale?

PAR 08:55 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
BOJ defending 120.75 Fibonnaci in USDJPY . A break below and BOJ and Kampo will be in big trouble .

hk ab 08:54 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Revdax, what choppy pic do you like and on which pair?

sydney ge11ja 08:54 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:42 GMT July 23, 2007

how do the housewives distort the charts???

hk ab 08:50 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
nzd/jpy can't lie, otherwise, those carriers will not be that bolded to keep adding. Only 1% chance is that we are now in the final blow off phase but the neat stairs climbing makes it not convincing. So... leave it alone.

Syd 08:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Property prices in 70 of China's large and medium-sized cities rose 7.1% in June from a year earlier, marking the biggest rise so far this year, data from the country's economic planning agency showed Monday.

The pace last month compared with May's 6.4% year-on-year rise, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its Web site.

Among major cities, property prices in Beijing rose 9.5%, the commission said. They were up 1.2% in Shanghai, 7.2% in Nanjing and 6.6% in Tianjin, it said.

Prices of newly built residential property rose 7.4% in June from a year earlier, accelerating 0.8 percentage point from May's year-on-year rise, the commission said.

Sydney gerald 08:45 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
carry trade will go on until any major retreat in any equity markets. China's i/r decision will be a main concern as well. If Aust's CPI doesn't meet investor expectation this Wed, major carry trade retreat will happen.

hk ab 08:43 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
interest to buy some eurs on pullback

hk ab 08:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
gerald, I would not rely on short time frame bollinger.
And don't forget that many technicals are now distorted by the censored housewives.....

hk revdax 08:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:40 //Today is a pork chop day...chop... chop... chop... day

Syd 08:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko is this the bottom for the USD ? need your view

Sydney gerald 08:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ab, isn't any clue can tell of Bollinger Band (overbought) for the carry bubble about to burst? btw, base on my research, the time for the burst most likely btw 12-16GMT (most active time in UK, or beginning of NYK session).

hk ab 08:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
laowen, I have stayed away with this beast. let it do whatever it wants to do.

Sth is not right with dlrchf from last Thur to today.

Shenzhen Laowen 08:34 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ab, frankly so far I haven't heard of any uncle who does not have a dick. LOL.

BTW, Kiwi looks crazy.

hk ab 07:55 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, who's that uncle Dick you refer?

hk ab 07:51 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
quiet afternoon.

Wellington, N.Z. 07:15 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 23rd:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

hk ab 07:15 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
repatriation of monies to clear the aftermath of that leakage?..
carry-bubble just like any bubble......Hard to pick top and hard to leave the limbo when it avalanches.

Mumbai NS 07:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Had heard impossible to straighten a dog's tail ,it can't be, likewise , got in a myth of straight talk for first time,only to realize soon that the saying is always rite

Gen dk 07:01 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 06:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
BOJ and Kampo buying USDJPY below 121.00 . Line in the sand for BOJ is 120.00 .

USA Zeus 06:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Well looks like Dick is back and has a score to settle.
Meanwhile he may take profits at will.

LOL

Mumbai NS 06:47 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Gud lite banter cheers

hk ab 06:47 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, gold still eyeing 705?
kiwi needs silence for its turn.

USA 06:42 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   


Netherlands Luke Lurkson 06:40 GMT July 23, 2007
For you Bob , will do a special deal....it will cost you 20 rubber chickens..lol

Netherlands Luke Lurkson 06:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Today's favored trade-
Sell GBP/USD over 2.06

How much does Zak McZeus's service cost? tia ZLOLZ

hk ab 06:36 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
syd, do you have any recent fig on uridishi from NZ?

The Netherlands Purk 06:11 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:33 GMT July 23, 2007

You can do me the next favour and keep the profit in your pocket....

USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Today's favored trade-
Sell GBP/USD over 2.06

The Netherlands Purk 06:06 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 22:35 GMT July 22, 2007

Nope, half just under 16840, half this morning around 16740.

Sydney ACC 05:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:54 GMT July 23, 2007
Peak too soon 0.8010 bid.

hk ab 05:54 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Isn't it unusual to see no options trigger or big stop buying at the fig. for kiwi?

GL.

madrid mm 05:52 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
FT: Japan's ruling coalition is heading for a crushing defeat in next Sunday's upper house election, according to several polls released on Sunday. Such a result would cause political gridlock and could lead to pressure for the resignation of PM Shinzo Abe. If the polls prove correct, the LDP could win fewer than 40 seats in the less powerful upper house.

* Nikkei poll: Support for the government of Shinzo Abe has plummeted to 27%,the worst showing since the PM took office last Sep t. Support for the ruling LDP slid 6 points to 29%, main opposition DPJ increased 4 points to 30%, beating the LDP for the first time ever. This is the first time the cabinet approval rating has fallen below 30% since February 2001, during PM Yoshiro Mori term.

* Times : Tokyo's ShinGinko feared on brink of failure.

* Turkey's ruling AK Party wins election victory, PM Tayyip Erdogan party winning 47% of the vote, up 13% from 2002. Turkish Lira rallies to 1.2590 to USD from 1.2750 after the victory - Reuters.

* OPEC Pres al-Hamli says OPEC is concerned about potential impact of high oil prices on world economy. - Reuters.

* FT: French Pres Nicolas Sarkozy is to push for a more assertive EU exchange-rate policy towards China to try to shore up ailing exporters hit by the strong euro.

* BBC: Barclays is close to raising around GBP10bn from the Chinese and Singaporean governments to help finance its takeover of the Dutch bank giant, ABN.

* July Rightmove house price at 10.3%y/y, down from 13.2%y/y.

* ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi says weak USD reflects "weak" US economy - TG1 - BBG.

USD/JPY then dived lower on US hedge funds selling in thin markets, on worries over subprime woes again, with EUR/JPY back down to 167.20-25, and USD/JPY falling to 6-week lows of 120.80, lows since June 8 120.75 lows.

Some focus on news of ShinGinko, negative JPY.

EUR/USD then edged down again, after it hit all time highs of 1.3846, but capped ahead of huge 1.3850 options, rumoured expiry today, NY, with payout said to be >$12m. Good offers now at 1.3840-50 capping.

EUR/USD capped by talks of good options related selling, not surprised to hear Sovereign, quasinational, options offers ahead of 1.3850.

AUD edged up on PPI data, but seen weighed by AUD/NZD selling, though hearing good AUD/NZD buying around 1.1000-20 by large UK clearer and Swiss bank.

NZD hit fresh 22-yr high 0.7998 on back of good US investment house, US money center banks buying, but capped ahead of 0.8000 options triggers.

GBP/USD remains firm, with bids at 2.05 lows, focus on 2.0600 handle, stoploss on break

Nikkei hit 1-m lows, -241 or 1.33% at 17.916. JGBs futures hit 6-wk highs on US Trsy, 10-yr yield -0.025% at 1.855%.

Sep crude oil dips in Asia as OPEC Pres voice concern high oil may hurt world economy, though little sign of that so far. $75.53, -$0.26.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.80/122.20, EUR/USD 1.3828/1.3846, GBP/USD 2.0500/2.0585, USD/CHF 1.1984/1.2010, AUD/USD 0.8795/0.8817, NZD/USD 0.7965/0.7998.

madrid mm 05:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
...and i missed it !!!!! I definitaly have to "trade" the Asian session !!!
8+-)

madrid mm 05:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
We had a choppy early morning session, which saw UD/YEN spiked to 122.20 taken from 121.36,
+EUR/JPY spiked through 169.00 triggers to all time highs of 169.05,
+FT article that Japan's ruling LDP coalition government faces heavy defeat at this Sunday's election, according to various polls

Kiwi continues to edge higher toward the key 0.8000 handle again..This lvl is teasing traders and making the NZ central bank sweating !!!!

madrid mm 05:34 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Hello FX Jedi,

Wellington, N.Z. 04:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 23rd:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

HK [email protected] 03:56 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:49 GMT July 23, 2007

Should be a very sentimental bombing LOL

I think we saw the high for NZ for the daY

Syd 03:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, Guam: To take part in annual exercises with the U.S. Air Force last month, Japan practiced dropping 500-pound live bombs on Farallon de Medinilla, a tiny island in the western Pacific about 240 kilometers north of here.

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6770304

Syd 03:47 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Dubai High-Rise World's Tallest

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070722/D8QHBBEO0.html

Syd 03:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:39 GMT agree

Syd 03:40 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
USD Fall May Yet Concern Tsy, Fed - censored Markets

hk ab 03:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
syd, looks to me that because too many people aware the toppish signal on kiwi but big players want to do some killing stops cleaning first before making it down.

However, it's harder now 'cos seem RBNZ is watching.

Syd 02:59 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Dollar May Drop on Housing, Standard Chartered Says
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar, the best performing currency against the yen in the past year, may slide from a 21-year high as the nation's property market cools, according to Standard Chartered Bank.

The currency known as the kiwi may fall 3 percent to 93.94 yen and to 77 U.S. cents by Dec. 31, said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy in Singapore. The central bank may pause after raising its 8 percent benchmark rate on July 26, because mortgage costs will be high enough to stifle housing demand, a Bloomberg News survey shows.
``The New Zealand property market is the canary in the coal mine,'' Henderson said. ``The currency is very closely linked to the property market so if that starts to crack the kiwi's high- flying days are numbered.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8UGe8Aemypk&refer=asia

Sydney ACC 02:35 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Barclays set to launch fresh bid for ABN

Barclays is on the verge of raising around £10bn from the Chinese and Singaporean Governments to finance an increased bid for rival ABN Amro.

John Varley, chief executive of Barclays, will use the £10bn to raise his all-share £43bn (E65bn) offer for ABN. A bid which, if successful, would transform Barclays into the fifth largest bank in the world.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=E4H0JO2RF5HDBQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/07/23/cnabn123.xml

Syd 02:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Will the banks go bust in a property slump?

IN the 1930s, the bank robber "Slick" Willie Sutton was once asked why he robbed banks. Sutton simply replied, "because that's where the money is".
What I love about his response is that he so completely missed the point of the question.
Still, what he said remains true today. Banks and other lenders in Ireland have raked it over the past decade. But with the housing market now stumbling, spare a thought for the bankers and those who own bank stocks.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/will-the-banks-go-bust-in-a-property-slump-1042325.html

Syd 02:27 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Banks face mortgage ‘timebomb’
Analysts forecast that leading banks will announce a surge in mortgage arrears as well as bad-debt charges linked to mortgages. According to one, UK banks wrote off just £56m in the first quarter of this year. But this is thought to have more than doubled to £140m between April and June. Some analysts now predict that the losses could reach £500m for 2007 and jump to £650m in 2008.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2115098.ece

hk revdax 02:19 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
1.0551

hk revdax 02:18 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:41 GMT July//$/CAD will stop before 1.0516 today...imo

hk ab 02:15 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
It would be sad for those who just longed the uiridishi to hedge by selling aggressively.....

Maybe time for housewives turning into exporters.....

Syd 01:41 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones technical analysis shows USD/CAD may trade higher this week as daily MACD, stochastics bullish, latter rising from oversold. Immediate resistance at 1.0516 (downtrend line from June 27 high of 1.0734), any breach of which would target 1.0612 (July 11 high), then 1.0759 (June 21 high).

Patra alex 01:34 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY 167.364

Philadelphia Caba 01:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
A PPI 1.0%/2.3%

Sydney ACC 01:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:21 GMT July 23, 2007
I don't believe a change of government will make much difference. NZ has a Labour controlled coalition and the currency is at a post float high. We have had a conservative government with a strong mandate for eleven years yet in 2001 Aussie plumbed sub 50 cents.
Once the ALP get into office government restraints affecty their policies. The aim of any party is to improve the living standards of their constituents and as a debt importer they know they have to keeop our creditors happy.

Patra alex 01:33 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 20:46 GMT July 22, 2007

All yours, closed at 167.36 +155 pips

Syd 01:30 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Shares Open Weaker;China Hike Weighs

Syd 01:23 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
BoE's monetary policy hampered by two-speed economy - ITEM Club
The Bank of England's monetary policy fails to account for imbalances in the UK economy, hampering its efforts to keep the economy from overheating, a leading economist said.
Much of the UK's GDP growth is generated in the City of London, financed by long-term structured credit which is little-affected by changes in interest rates -- but these higher rates can have a major impact on the UK consumer, said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Ernst & Young-sponsored think tank, the ITEM Club.
"The Bank of England is like a one-club golfer," Spencer said.
"It's stuck in a bunker and it needs a sand-iron to get out -- but the only club it's got is a number-one wood, which is great for clobbering the household sector and the export sector but it's really not suited for cooling financial market activity like mergers and acquisitions," he added.

Syd 01:21 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:14 really dont know, we will probably have a new government by then so the direction of Aus can change with them being more Union oriented and would see manufacturing in recession by then just above 50 now , as far as the Kiwi is concerned the big R word definitly and who in there right mind would hold onto that carry :-))

dc CB 01:20 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd both CC

re: grain conditions Wheat. right now all harvest ready world crops are dire. Emerging crops are the only hope for/against decade highs in the wheat market.

Sydney ACC 01:14 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:57 GMT July 23, 2007
Scenario One
let's say AUD/USD does reach parity. The question is when? Lets say March next year, by that time the cash will start to flow from a bumper harvest, the RBA starts to jack up interest rates. My guess is by that time the wind has died down in NZ and the economy over there has started to scale back so I am assuming an AUD/NZD cross of 1.15 which is back closer to the historical mean. that would leave Kiwi at around 87 cents.
One report i read on the eweekend indicated that about 17% of the subprime mortgages in the US are in arrears. A JP Morgan study suggests by second half 2008 that figure could be 50%.
Scenario Two
The carrytrade blows up USD/JPY moves to 112.00 by September, interest rate increase in Japan in August.
Mrs Watanabe et al start to liquidate positions AUD/USD has reached a high of 8961 but can't keep pace with USD/JPY. When USD/JPY reaches this level 112.00 lack of flow and cioncerns iof a Chinese slowdown sees AUD/USD back down to 0.8300. AUD/USD then trades 0.8100/0.8700 no chance of parity, Japanese keep their money at home things then start to slowdown in Australia with suggestions of interest rate cuts by the end of the year.
Like the rest of us I am just guessing but scenario one looks the most likely at the moment.

Syd 01:13 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
French officials to discuss China currency policy with Trichet - report LONDON (XFN-ASIA) - French government officials are planning to raise their concerns over China's exchange-rate policy at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers, the Financial Times reported.The business daily, citing French sources, said the officials aim to discuss China's policy at the meeting, which precedes an EU-China summit in November, which European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is also set to attend.
"It makes sense to discuss the issue in this forum because Mr Trichet will be there," an unidentified official was quoted by the FT as saying.French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said that he has "a problem" with China's exchange-rate policy which he argues deliberately undervalues the yuan to the detriment of French exporters.Unidentified officials from the Eurogroup, the group of eurozone finance ministers, told the paper that Trichet, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia and Luxembourg Prime Minister and Eurogroup chair Jean-Claude Juncker may travel to Beijing to discuss the currency issue.
afp

Philadelphia Caba 01:06 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
looks like kiwi at 8000 will be tough..

Syd 00:57 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:53 where would that put the Kiwi ? curious

Sydney ACC 00:53 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:03 GMT July 23, 2007
If Aussie goes to parity with USD, which is possible, CAD is ;likely to go to .90/.95 level.

There is no time frame on his prediction. The weekly chart looks so bullish I can't see any resistance on Aussie at all going back to 2000. the only resistance at this stage is the post-float high of 0.8961 in January 1989. back then by early May it was down at 0.7300. I can't recall what prompted the decline, it wasn't interest rates, bank bills at the time were 16.54% in Feb, followed by 17.25%, 17.46% AND 17.52% in succeeding months. i do know that at 89 cents the debt management office converted almost all their foreign currency debt in AUD's.

Philadelphia Caba 00:49 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
nzd has been bid nzd1.229 B worth of uridashi and Eurobonds at the end of last week ( sexy b. feed)

hk ab 00:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
ABe defeat...... maybe due to his rate hike comes too late....LOL

Syd 00:39 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
IFR coming to a short term top on the NZD says trade is becoming too risky at this Level

hk ab 00:27 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Revdax//What level are you eyeing for your dlr/chf short now?

Syd 00:16 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:11 you have to ask yourself if they do what risk is that putting on the economy , high rates are ok but dont alway follow with a higher ccy on when the people buying are crazy sushi women

hk ab 00:11 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
I think before NZ doing anything, housewives will need to make up their decision first on their "risks". It's no longer absent there.

dc CB 00:03 GMT July 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:07 GMT July 22, 2007
Max McKegg is predicting:

if this, then loonie is to parity.

 




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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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