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Forex Forum Archive for 07/24/2007

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USA BAY 23:58 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM,

What do you think is a good level to long gbp/jpy and eur/jpy please. Tia

Syd 23:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:31 cant see the BOE cutting rates and can see a rise to probably 6.25 , the thing is the property market has been taken over in the UK by the get rich quick crowd , a lot different from the past , and its the same in the US everyone talks about rate cuts ,why would they only to start this cycle all over again , there are many out there ready to jump in again.

Lahore FM 23:45 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:41 GMT July 24, 2007
ACC sir,am looking forward.gtgl!!

Sydney ACC 23:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:34 GMT July 24, 2007
nj jf 23:30 GMT July 24, 2007
Could very well do if the Australian CPI is benign and RBNZ holds the OCR at current levels.
First one in 110 minutes.

Lahore FM 23:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 23:30 GMT July 24, 2007
yes,certainly the perfect scenario and i guess it is about to get triggered.

Wellington, N.Z. 23:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
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Sydney ACC 23:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:06 GMT July 24, 2007
Funny old world!
I read a story yesterday that the higher euro had helped ameliorate the impact of higher oil prices in Europe effectively reducing the need for ECB to increase interest rates again.
Regarding the UK I am not convinced MPC will increase again. King indicated memebers the Committee don't make up their finds beforehand, apart from from Besley, Sentance and Blanchflower anyway. Cable is about 3 cents over done by my book. What's more I reckon they will be cutting witghin six months.
I am hearing Asian central banks lined up on the bid sub 1.3800 too.

nj jf 23:30 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
fm .. if aud eur or gbp started some correction in the middle of a yen unwind - wud be a real mess.... that maybe something that wud really benefit our positions

Lahore FM 23:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
added short gbpjpy 248.00 with 248.70 mind stop.

Gen dk 23:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:23 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
60% of UK wealth is tied up in homes
In 1948 Britain was worth £551bn. The property boom has raised it to £6.5 trillion
http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2133284,00.html

Syd 23:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:34 GMT yes saw that he was bullish , probably been privy to something since , most analyst see the dollar holdig the above 80 index , to be quite honest getting such a diverse view across the board can on rely on what the numbers say at the time , as I have said if higher rates affect the European and UK markets similar we will be looking at a different picture , hearing today talk of 5% rates by ECB due to inflation bought on by the high oil prices, that may be ok for Germany but will crush the rest and the French guy will be out with his shotgun

Monaco Oil man 23:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
manchester sc 22:12 GMT July 24, 2007

JPY,GBP, AUD, CAD , EUR, USD..In that order of preference.

GT!

Sydney ACC 22:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:21 GMT July 24, 2007
Interesting scenario from Westpac, about two months ago Bill Evans spoke on ABC saying he was confident the bank would increase rates the following month.
CBA predict 1.2% headline, 0.8% core with RBA odds-on to increase rates next month.

Syd 22:21 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian home owners can rest easy for now as second quarter inflation data Wednesday is unlikely to trigger a near-term rise in official interest rates.

A survey of 22 economists by Dow Jones Newswires Friday points to a likely inflation rate of 1.0% through the second quarter and 1.9% from the same period a year earlier.

Core inflation, which strips out price volatility, is likely to show a rise of 0.7% on quarter and 2.5% from a year earlier, according to the survey.

As the Reserve Bank of Australia uses a 2% to 3% inflation target to guide policy decisions, neither inflation result is expected to spark a policy response.

The data will be published at 0130 GMT on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Official interest rates have been held at 6.25% since November 2006, and most economists expect the RBA will be keeping its powder dry until at least early 2008.

"Importantly from a monetary policy perspective, core inflation is expected to remain within comfortable ranges....These figures will not be high enough to warrant a monetary policy response and we maintain that the RBA will stay on the sidelines," said Riki Polygenis, economist at ANZ Bank.

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac said inflation will have to come in a lot higher than currently forecast to unnerve the RBA.

"We assess that the RBA is in no hurry to raise rates and will need to be confronted with a huge shock on July 25 to get it moving," he said.

While the RBA clearly retains a tightening bias due to strong domestic demand, wage growth has not yet spilled into higher inflation, so the RBA has time to wait. Australian interest rates have already been raised 8 times since May 2002.

Philadelphia Caba 22:13 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
thanks ACC

manchester sc 22:12 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
oil man, i agree with you in that NZD is due a fast drop but which currency would you short it against?

Monaco Oil man 22:04 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
We have been in a congestion for the last 3 weeks, with a thinning range 1.1960-1.2110 for the $CHF..
A break either way calls for a new directional move (400-600 pips on $chf)..

Shouldn't hold much longer , all models are still short on the pair , with no signs of $ strength as of now.

Meanwhile NZD should start feeling gravity , and fast if $/Y does break under 119.70..Exploitable moves on its crosses (AUDNZD, GBPNZD and so forth)..

Good trades.

Philadelphia Caba 22:02 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:51
looks like you did start post on this side more often again. it's good! gt/gl!

Lahore FM 21:58 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
added scalp sell gbpusd 2.0613,stops at 30 bid.

Lahore FM 21:51 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 21:48 GMT July 24, 2007
like and agree with all.

Philadelphia Caba 21:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
I think that next trigger for unwinding of carry ( & some retracement in us$ pairs - except usd/jpy), after today's 'drop' in the djia can be tonight aud cpi and/or tomorrow's rbnz cut (lol), no change decision. any comments?
gt/gl!

Sydney ACC 21:47 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 21:38 GMT July 24, 2007
Market is expecting anything between 0.7% and 1.2% with the mean at 1.0%.
Two points, one much of the appreciation of the currency has yet to be felt most of that will get factored into this qaurter's figure and two the cost of fresh fruit and vegetables has skyrocketed in recent weeks because of the weather.

the risk is ahigher figure particularly as we have had two very low readings for the past quarters.

The Bureau will release the RBA's data at the same time this may be of more relevance in getting a handle on the core figure.

Philadelphia Caba 21:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd & ACC, any comment on aussie cpi tonite, pls? tia!

manchester sc 21:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
1/2 cent?

Lahore FM 21:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
*

less than half cent* away

Lahore FM 21:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
eurgbp likely gainer in all this scenario with current at 0.6704.

Lahore FM 21:22 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
manchester sc 21:20 GMT July 24, 2007
there is a possiblity but slight.it has delinked considerably from jpy from monday open onwards.perhaps my scalp is not very safe but i have it on anyways.

Lahore FM 21:21 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
going to be an ugly day for gbp,nzd and aud with gbpusd less than half sent away from recent high.

manchester sc 21:20 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
FM, dont you think CHF will show ome strength at some point

GVI john 21:17 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
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Charts: Updated Bourses..
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Lahore FM 21:09 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
added a third position on usdchf ,long,with a small stop.long 1.2028,stops at 1.2010.

Lahore FM 20:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 20:20 GMT July 24, 2007
quite agree with the ur held view there Purk but whichever way we look at it ,it is about time that unwind kicked in in full and usd became stronger against gbp and contis on back of hat.

Gen dk 20:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 20:20 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
FM, the usd/jpy is this high because of the waek yen not because of a strong or weak dollar. I saw usd/jpy moving with the bugger and the beast.
Congrat on the beast trade btw, very good indeed.

Gen dk 20:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 20:04 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:30 GMT July 24, 2007
last of the downticks on usd for what i see.still lower usdjpy though.

--

Lahore FM 17:52 GMT July 24, 2007
shorted nzdusd for a scalp 0.8083 with a stop for this scalp at 0.8110.

--
out of half at 0.8040..stops to entry for half.

Lahore FM 20:01 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:41 GMT July 23, 2007
sold gbpjpy 249.50,tentative stops at 250.30.target 247.50.
--
closed half at 247.40 for 210 pips.

ABHA FXS 19:58 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
LIMIT ORDER..
Long EURJPY 165.84 Target 170.00

Mtl JP 19:54 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
usdx looks to trgt 4x bottom 78.40/30

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:05 GMT July 24, 2007
ACC they will break down under jpy load sooner rather than later.let us see.this will be second time on.friday was first but incomplete.

--
see them breaking now,most likely quite completely this once.

dc CB 19:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
SnP down over 30pts, Dow down 230, Naz 55
this day may be the start of an unwind.

Maribor 19:39 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sometime even I guess it right...

Maribor 14:52 GMT July 20, 2007
For AUDCAD to obey "sell on blip"mode, either AUDUSD must fall(does no look like to me) or USDCAD must fall double.

The Netherlands Purk 19:39 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
All stops to b/e already in e/j... Will closed 1/2 at 166.

The Netherlands Purk 19:39 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
All stops to b/e already in e/j... Will closed 1/2 at 166.

dc CB 19:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
15:28 Trading curbs now in effect on NYSE

The Netherlands Purk 19:33 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
e/j does the ticking to the low thingy. shorts can be taken. Watch 16653 for the other side now....
Loonie: stops are cleared i guess. I hope all those longers kept their possies and believe in 104022...

ABHA FXS 19:27 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Short CADCHF 1.1613 T 1.1413

Mtl JP 19:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:02 / those Chinese villagers must be awful and somehow important to merit a visit from such a... luminary.

London NYAM 19:14 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
No need o get excited folks. usdjpy still resillient between 120.00 AND 120.25 below that i would start squeeling too. eur and gbp are not really getting the kind of reaction one would expect. Dont worry be happy.

ABHA FXS 19:07 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Short NZDJPY 97.24 Target 95.81

dc CB 19:05 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
fwiw the Countywide conference call just ended....it went on for almost 3 hours....this is very unusual. They basically freaked the market out.

Lahore FM 19:05 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
ACC they will break down under jpy load sooner rather than later.let us see.this will be second time on.friday was first but incomplete.

dc CB 18:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   

14:21 CFC Countrywide On Conference Call (29.80 -4.22) -Update-

Delinquencies and defaults rising across all investment tools... says lower home prices may effect credit.....

.Says until the market can understand future rating from S&P they will have difficulty investing in credit areas... says a large question remains that even if CDOs recover would their be buyers again...

... Asked what we need to look for improvement: says that inventory in house supply has to be versatile; says no one saw the deterioration of real estate values coming; says right now buyers can wait til housing prices go down and that needs to change...

Asked about prime portfolio: co says so far what they have seen in deliquencies is due to people losing job, losing health, lost marriage, moreso than any resets; says that definition of prime may not be as high as some think;

co seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression... Says that a small % of lost homes are due to payment shock; says 60% is due to some sort of loss of income; 25% attributable to death or divorce; says a significant amount is explained by investors unable to get out of the property...

says not saying that house prices will decline in 2009; says not sure when housing declines will cease . On call, co notes that subprime isn't the story this qtr, rather it is home equity borrowers who pulled money out of their homes..

Sydney ACC 18:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:30 GMT July 24, 2007
Where do you see EUR and GBP heading FM?

antverp frank 18:42 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
anybody can explain why in this year currency trade in very norrow range average 40 pips in euro in day and difficult to trade. and just aussy kiwi runing without stop even no small correction just this year its know that they have higher interest rate last year they have also and not were strong .and you can short them never always lose money on short them.and how posibble all the day they up and rest up and rest no down even small is all the world buy them together collaborate

Lahore FM 18:30 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
last of the downticks on usd for what i see.still lower usdjpy though.

Cbj Jake 18:29 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
To "boldface" NYC jr (13:46) Bill Gross:"To be blunt they(institutional investors) seem to think that if Moody, S$P have done such a lousy job...how can the market have confidence that they are not repeating the same structural, formulaic mistake with CLOs and CDOs...the growing lack of confidence has frozen future lending...absolutely nothing is moving."

hk ab 18:23 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad: weekly chat T/L support 1.0335.

hk ab 18:21 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
and the majors move quite masking the slow down creeping in eur/gbp.

If it closes below .67 daily, some nice shows waiting for us.

hk ab 18:19 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
CB//US pic now quite resembles the bubbles HK 1997. Diff. is HK has a large reserves but US has a large debt.

The Netherlands Purk 18:18 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Closed the remaining possie in e/j. Profit is profit.
Fore those who long the loonie, i hope for you that it will give you pips, but (t) pattern in such moves are that noone is interested in buying at these levels. I dont see NN here, maybe at 10322...
Maybe tomrrow is a good idead longing or not at all. Or the plan should be adding untill you drop...

dc CB 18:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
from briefing.com:

14:12 Major averages trade to fresh session lows in the past 20 min... CFC conference call comments likely adding to nervousness about housing

CFC's conference call, which is in Q&A right now, is likely adding to the market's nervousness about the housing market. This time, subprime isn't the primary issue, but rather the deterioration in the housing mkt -- co said that "home prices are falling at a level not seen in quite some time." As the Q&A has gone on, the Dow has lost 30 points, and the Nasdaq 15 points.

London NYAM 18:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
This price action upwards in GBPUSD (2.0632) really is looking sloppy. i think your shorts may come up well Lahore/Zeus. Only looking corrective so far and dollar really wants to try for some strength.

ABHA FXS 18:14 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
corrction..
Long EURCAD 1.4300 Target 1.4515

ABHA FXS 18:12 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Long EURCAD 1.4200 Target 1.4515

hk ab 18:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
To my belief, mkt worked against all posted positions in gvi this month. I am not surprise to see dlr/cad reaching parity soon

Lahore FM 17:52 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
shorted nzdusd for a scalp 0.8083 with a stop for this scalp at 0.8110.

KL skystar 17:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 17:17 GMT July 24, 2007
Long USDCAD 1.0355 Target 1.0570

Long USDCAD too...expecting this commodity pair favor USD when oil price subsided...kfx...gl gt

madrdid mm 17:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR
it is not what you know , but who you know !!!

LOl

ABHA FXS 17:17 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Long USDCAD 1.0355 Target 1.0570

PAR 17:02 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Paulson going to China at the end of this week to check whether the Chines are interrested to invest in some subprime Us loans or maybe want to take a major stake in a big Us bank or broker .

Cali mmm 16:59 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
FM, do you have any view/position on CAD/JPY ? Any targets? TKS!

Mumbai Deepak 16:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
DEM = German mark!

Mumbai Deepak 16:54 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
ab....I am not a short term player! Good luck with your positions.

If someone still looks at USD-DEM, then the pair would have currently quoted near 1.4060 approx. The 1995 Low for USD-DEM was 1.3850 approx! I still look at USD-DEM also!

hk ab 16:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
tx v. much Deepak.
seems we will see a swift dive again by tomorrow Asian open on dlr/jpy.

madrdid mm 16:43 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
March 1973 was chosen as a base period because it is when the world's major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely. This was the result of an agreement reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, DC. The Smithsonian agreement replaced a fixed rate regime implemented about 25 years early at Bretton Woods.

From the March 1973 base point, the USDX has traded as high as the mid-160's and as low as the high-70's.

Traderpedia

Mumbai Deepak 16:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
ab//

EUR 57.6%
Yen 13.6%
GBP 11.9%
CAD 9.1%
SEK 4.2%
CHF 3.6%

Dollar Index

USA Zeus 16:37 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Covering e/j as the favored trade is good

Lahore FM 16:36 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
most certainly working mmm.i had posted regarding futility of stops on usdchf when it ranged 9 days.i had none.

--
shorted gbpusd 1.0620,stopless.

PAR 16:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Paulson and Bernanke dont care about the dollar or inflation , the DJII and S&P are their benchmarks .

madrdid mm 16:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
US Dollar Index - USDX

What does it Mean? A measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.

Investopedia Says... Currently, this index is calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. This index started in 1973 with a base of 100 and is relative to this base. This means that a value of 120 would suggest that the U.S. dollar experienced a 20% increase in value over the time period.

It is possible to incorporate futures or options strategies on the USDX. These financial products currently trade on the New York Board Of Trade.

Cali mmm 16:33 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
your long USDCHF working so far FM.

hk ab 16:27 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
strange thought, probably, we could see a massive shift of funds from the old carry to new asian/carry....
THat could create an illusion that the dlr index bounced off 80 and allow some breaths of these sufferers of the past 7 years.

Can someone tell the precise composition of USD index

manchester sc 16:26 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:01 GMT July 24, 2007
long again 1.0384,stops at 50.

whats your target?

London NYAM 16:23 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 16:20 GMT July 24, 2007 // The return to dreamland looks like its on for this afternoon. Think we mount 121.00 today. Carry crosses should get happy lift.

hk ab 16:23 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR//That's because of the rescue team.

PAR 16:20 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
During afternoon trading on NYSE subprime and other credit worries usually melt away .

manchester sc 16:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
bernanke commented on sub prime / housing, he obviously knows something. housing data out tomorrow. it could be carnage for the dollar

Mumbai Deepak 16:10 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
ab.......One more thing!

Yes..Rising Currency hurts the exporters, but we have to look at the positive impact of the currency as well! Bcoz our INR is strong, we dont see a rise in Oil. Bcoz our currency is strong, our govt's financial coffers are full, which would be used in the development of infrastructure and I guess, every asian citizen will be happy with a rising currency.

Mumbai Deepak 15:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:34 // The only asian currency in the Dollar Index is Yen, weightage of which is nearly 10%. It is dominated by EUR which is approx 57%. It even contains SEK but NOT Yuan and INR, which IMO are more important. Its Faulty and FED wants to keep it that way, as they dont want to see 80 break, as it can hurt their credibility globally!

For real Dollar fall...See BRL, where the USD has crashed 12-13% so far in the year. See USD against INR and against KRW. See USD against SGD.

The real index for us who are in Asia, live and work here, is the ADXY. Since ADXY is ex-Yen, it gives the correct picture of "Emerging Asia". That index is currently near its highest since 1998 meltdown! I saw the chart just today! I cant post it however. This is why, I requested someone to post that chart in GV Blog.

Sydney ACC 15:53 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:42 GMT July 24, 2007
Intervention is being used to slow the Kiwi's ascent. The RBNZ knows full well that it cannot reverse the appreciation and force the currency down by any measurable degree. While an interest rate cut may have the desired affect one has to consider the ongoing ramifications. The Bank may as well say that their actions for the last year have been futile. Furthermore the Governor has to consider the country's position as a long-term soverign borrower. In the light of day the problems associated with the currency's strength will prove transitory. Selling Kiwi, buying foreign currencies and holding them unhedged, sanitising the sales will ensure the RBNZ has sufficient firepower to slow the currency's decline when it occurs.
It is less than 13 months since Kiwi traded sub 60 cents and will so again. I just don't know when.

Lahore FM 15:52 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
was stopped for 80 pips on gbpusd shorts at 1.0610.

HK Kevin 15:47 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:38 GMT, Canada May Retail Sales ex-autos m/m 2.3% (expected 0.6%), May Retail Sales m/m 2.8% (expected 0.5% )

Mtl JP 15:44 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:07 / "strong" - an undefined and inprecise notion by political characters - does not mean in some numericaly computative and relative terms, rather muscle-bound as explained by Gartman: "as long as the US remains the world's dominant military power, for it is military power that protects, ultimately, the position of the reserve currency nation".

Some have already found out and determined what holding usds may mean.

hk ab 15:42 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
if RBNZ wants their intervention work, either show us a 500 pips one or a 1% cut. Otherwise, the effort will fail at the 0.8000 line again for bulls.

NY RP 15:40 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab. Good point. Then the Broad Dollar index would be a good gauge as well. And the Major Currencies Index. It is worth a look. GL

hk ab 15:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
oil man, seems cad crosses move is altered by the fig. tonight.

hk ab 15:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Can any experience trader tell us what happened in May 1988 when kiwi made that turn? What was the trigger?

hk ab 15:34 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
RP//dlr index doesn't include some Asian countries, those monies might be targeting them.

I think bc did leave a remark for some uncertainties next year.

NY RP 15:28 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
The big question is does one buy support or sell it? US Dollar index has MANY years of support at .8000. This goes and we are in a renewed/stage two of Dollar bear and 5 to 10 figures could very well be achived. Time will tell. GL

NY RP 15:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Comments by Paulson appear to be consistent. Let the Dollar slowly drop with out panic. Strong Dollar but let markets decide. Enough said. Was done by Wall St. in the dot.com (stocks) and is being done again with real estate and the Dollar. It is funny if you think back. The stocks were in a bubble, Wall St. claimed a bottomed all along the way until it was a bottom. Thanks Abbey Jospeh of Goldman, oh did you say Goldman? If so who is running the Fed currently?
That is the way the street works, other wise you get panic and the Fed or the street cannot control that once it starts.
Let's have some fun, volatilty is coming back. We missed you.

NYC 15:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
The only reason for trying to pick a dollar bottom is the level. The fact that pairs are leapfrogging each other to new highs says the market is switching between pairs but still shunning the dollar.

hk ab 15:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Bob, fact is all countries produces their brands in China instead....

Cali mmm 15:13 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Ok thank you FM.

Lahore FM 15:08 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
yes mmm,both positions are on.had removed nzdusd stops.

PAR 15:07 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
If according to stand up comedian Paulson a strong dollar is in the US interest then by consequence a collapsing dollar should be bad for the USA .

Cali mmm 15:05 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM. Hope everything ok. Are you still long usdchf with a 1.2140ish target? also short nzdusd after yesterday upward move? Thank you for your comments.

Lahore FM 15:01 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
long again 1.0384,stops at 50.

Lahore FM 14:57 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Hi Bob,all well i hope!

Lahore FM 14:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
stopped on 1 and 1/2 long usdcad from 1.0430 and 40 at 1.0400.had closed 1/2 earlier at 1.0485 so out with minimal loss.

St. Annaland Bob 14:54 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   

buy VW, Audi, Pursche, MB or VOLVO in USA and/or USD pegged countries for re-sell in European and/or EUR pegged countries seems to be good business transaction for the moment ... also, don't leave GEOX and NATUZZI as orphans ... also, let's see if selling Perrier to the French will work also this time and Bosch for the Germans ... peace and bye!

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:46 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:28 GMT

I agree with your premise re- USDCHF fivergence from making new lows vs highs for EUR and GBP vs USD.

The market in the EUR GBP cr0sses vs USD are so one sided to the buyside that a shakeout of weak, overextended longs will happen, the question is how soon.

The USD negatives are the same ones that have been trotted out day after day after week for the past fews months. Meanwhile negativive/sub expectation reports, especially for GBP data are being ignored - example: CBI industrail orders this am and Roghtmove houses prices Sunday evening.

Mtl JP 14:42 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 14:28 / dlrchf 1.1850 not yet shot: 1.2080/90 holding reasonably well atm although not out of the woods yet.

melbourne DC 14:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
instead of consolidate 5-6 days then jump, eurusd now just making marginally new highs ..

manchester sc 14:39 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
DS, everyone is aching to call the bottom of the dollar but its just not happening, not sure about your analysis that euro will come down to 13550. weak housing data could mean 140 could come quickly

GENEVA DS 14:28 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
seems to us that now LOTS of people know that EURUSD is gonna be 1.4000 and GBPUSD will be 2.1000... we think that some EUR and GBP correction is infront of us... may be one last little new high to lets say 13870ish then down to 1.3550.... how many will be buying at 1.3550 ?.... only a thought.... USDCHF refuses to go down ... gl

Sydney zigen 14:23 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd closed yesterday at 2.0590. it confirmed the break-out of 2.0550, it has to test 2.0760(weekly trendline), 2.0880 (monthly bol.) though before it hit 2.1

London NYAM 14:09 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD Agreed failure again at the 2-4 trend line indicates we take another trip up but 2.10 to me is still dependant on 2.0700/710 break.

Sydney zigen 14:02 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd has broke 2.0500 barrier, now heading 2.1000.

HK [email protected] 14:00 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
That NZD likely will enter the range between 0.8150 to 0.82 maybe then expect any action if any from RBNZ

Hong Kong WT 13:59 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
booked 8? pips profit from usecad.
When today's last US data come out, start to think bottom picking.

HK Kevin 13:53 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:44 GMT, what does item 2 imply for?

GVI john 13:50 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
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NYC jr 13:46 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Pimco: Bill Gross August comment...

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+August+2007.htm

HK [email protected] 13:44 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
,
HK Kevin 07:04 GMT July 24, 2007

1)USD/JPY FWIW the 5-day-SMA crossed the 65-day-SMA

2)AND now NZD open for a jerkup of one percent more.

madrid mm 13:40 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
testing 1-2-3
8+-)

GVI Jay 13:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sorry for the rare interruption. It was a progamming glitch and beyond our control. We are back online.

HK Kevin 13:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Jay, welcome back!

Gen dk 13:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Funny but so true -

"Take a shabby sub-prime mortgage; chop it into “investment”, “mezzanine” and “equity” tranches. Bundle it with other equally suspect mortgage backed securities (MBS). Decide (arbitrarily) what the CDOs are worth Tell your banker. Leverage at a ratio of 10 o 1. Take 2% “off the top” plus salary for your efforts. Buy a summer home in the Hampton’s and a Lexus for the wife. Wait for the crash. Then repeat." Congratulations; you are now a successful hedge fund manager! Oh yeah; and don’t forget to prepare a few soothing words for the investors who just lost their entire life savings and will now be spending their evenings squatting beneath a nearby freeway off-ramp."

http://malaysia-today.net/blog2006/reports.php

HK Kevin 07:04 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
HK RF, 100 ma of USD/JPY hit today. What's next? Short USD/JPY position closed at 120.56.
New position taken is short Cable at 2.0643.

Ldn 06:58 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Official:EU Bans On Dangerous Chinese Goods Not Protectionism BEIJING (AP)--European Union bans on Chinese imports deemed dangerous or unsafe are not protectionism, an E.U. consumer goods official said Tuesday as she urged China to better police its problematic manufacturers. There was no double standard on how the E.U. decided to ban imported goods for safety problems or in the way it requires governments to track down problem exporters, E.U. Consumer Commissioner Meglena Kuneva said. "Many of the goods which are coming to the European market (from China) don't raise any concern and they increase the choice of European consumers," Kuneva said. Dangerous goods from China were dealt with in the same way as unsafe products from any other third country or Europe as well, she said. "There is no double standard," she said. The E.U. in 2006 identified 924 products - from unsafe lighters to wobbly strollers to short-circuiting kettles - as too dangerous to be sold in its 27 member nations, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.

USA 06:52 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Neatherlands Luke Lurkson 06:41 GMT July 24, 2007
Yes Bob.You should join the Maxs flock but i dont think he will accept rubber chickens in payment...

Neatherlands Luke Lurkson 06:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:25 GMT July 24, 2007
NZ Traders Flocking to Foreign Exchange
Tuesday, 24 July 2007, 12:59 pm
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0707/S00450.htm

Flocking great news for Max....more customers. 'Spose that means a whole bunch of Newbie Zealanders on the FF (Flocked Forum?)

hk ab 06:36 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR, is Kampo buying now @120.50?

If we know some censored friends and seeing housewives redeeming their fatty coupons, by then, we can start selling nzd. Right now, it might be too early LOL.

hk ab 06:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
unless RBNZ makes a 500 pips intervention (Similar to the one produced by BOJ in the history). These scratchings will only add fuel to their attacks on the 80 line......

Bet many biggies are around there to BUY.

madrid mm 06:15 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
* US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson says subprime mortgage problems are "quite containable". Strong USD is in US interest, rate should be set by fundamentals - CNBC
( how many times the same song comes along in every part of the world )

* Japan MoF Koji Omi says too early to says if Japan supports French candidate Dominique Strauss-Kahn as the next IMF head.

* Econs Minister Hiroko Ota says last week's earthquake in northern Japan that slowed production in th auto industry will likely have short-term impact on overall industrial production.

* NKS: Swiss securities house estimates Japan's top 9 banking groups' combined holdings in products backed by US subprime mortgages to slightly exceed Y1trln.

* FT: The falling US dollar is lowering the OPEC purchasing power by up to a third, making the powerful oil cartel more reluctant to increase production and cut prices. Although oil is trading near last August's record $78.65 a barrel, Opec calculations show that, when adjusted for the weaker dollar and inflation, an average of the 12 Opec members' crude oil prices has fallen in the past year. Growing trade between Opec members, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, And the EU is aggravating the problems because the GBP and EUR has risen.

* WSJ: Foreign governments, flush with cash and no longer content with the meager returns to be had on safe but low-yielding investments like Treasurys, are becoming increasingly aggressive players on the equity front. The new boldness was on display when entities controlled by the govts of China and Singapore agreed to invest as much as $18.5b in return for stakes in the Barclays PLC.

Choppy day today, as JPY buying triggered USD selloff. A large US banking group out of Tokyo, talks CTAs and hedge funds are said to be huge USD/JPY sellers, today and yesterday.

Some speculation of possible shift in sentiment or position from Short JPY to JPY short covering, probably amidst the current US subprime woes.,

The US house good selling probably, >$300-400m, from below 121, hit stops below 120.70/60/50 key "Ichimoku clouds" on the charts closely watched by Japanese traders, and triggering stoploss orders on the way down, and pushing USD/JPY to 2-month lows of 120.47, before further falling to 120.42, low since May 16 low of 120.14.

Hearing large options interest at 120.25/ 120.00, rumoured Asian accounts and China, likely to see USD/JPY options bids there, but stoploss on break.

The USD/JPY sales triggered EUR/JPY sales to 3-wk lows of 166.47, with more stoploss orders on break of 166.40/ 166 handle. Offers now coming in at 167 handle/ 167.50.

GBP broke through 2.0610-25 barriers to hit 26-yr highs of 2.0647, as EUR/GBP stops hit below 0.6695-00 to 5-mth lows 0.6693 on UK clearers, Europeans Cable buying.

AUD broke 0.8850 barriers to fresh 18-yr highs of 0.8863, while Kiwi managed to float above 0.8100 barriers to fresh 25 year highs 0.8111, high since Jan 1982, before coming off sharply -triggering talks of RBNZ intervention.

EUR/USD unable to hit new high, 1.3850 options on EUR/Crosses sale.

USD INDEX near 15-yr lows of 80.117, near key 80, stops below.

Nikkei recovers, +28ps or 0.16% at 17,992.JGB futures edge up to 6-wk highs, 10-yr yield flat at 1.850%.

Sep crude oil lower in Asia, after yesterday's OPEC concerns on high oil prices. $74.67, -$0.22.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.42/121.15, EUR/USD 1.3800/1.3832, GBP/USD 2.0587/2.0648, USD/CHF 1.2028/1.2065, AUD/USD 0.8826/0.8863, NZD/USD 0.8052/0.8110.

hk ab 06:12 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
we were on the 80 line this morning.

madrid mm 06:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Hello And GM FX jedi, aother day, another opportunity at the least

German import prices rose by 0.6 pct in June from May, well above forecasts for a much more moderate 0.3 pct rise, figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed.

hk ab 06:10 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR why not, it was just at 115 few months ago....Think we will see that pretty quick too.

problem is on e/j, not u/j....

PAR 06:04 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Would be really surprised if BOJ allowed USDJPY to trade below 120.00 , this would be quiet disorderly ..Lol.

USA Zeus 05:55 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Was able to add short GBP/USD 2.0652

Wellington, N.Z. 05:46 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 24th:

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The Netherlands Purk 05:45 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Closing half on e/j here. Rest at b/e from last night. still 16653 to break. Upside now 16745, and than nothing till 16902.
Great moves!

Mumbai Deepak 04:46 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Hi Friends.....

Can any one who has Bloomberg post the chart of ADXY (J P Morgan - Bloomberg Asia Currency Index - ex Yen). Long term weekly and short term from 2007 daily. It shows the real strength of Asian currencies against the USD.
Please post it in GV Blog or any where else and give a link.

TIA.

Mumbai Deepak 04:42 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
DS...Last at 40.2550/2650. No news today as such, except that SGD gained some more. I guess, one would see the sub 40...when USDSGD goes below 1.50.

Syd 04:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 04:35 there already here !! talk that SE Queensland belongs to NZ.

Manchester st 04:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:29 GMT July 24, 2007
Soon not only will the aussies get another mass exodus of kiwi imigrants to Australia again, this time they will bring their "girlfriends"along as wel, since their girlfriends"" dont have any more commercial value there...Lock up your Merinos Syd. The kiwis are coming..lol

GENEVA DS 04:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai

morning my friend.. any last price for INR ? any news...? I just keep my long term 6 month option on it, but are sure appreciating your comments... thanks my friend... gl

Syd 04:29 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
High dollar hammers sheep and beef outlook

The 2007-08 outlook for sheep and beef farmers is grim if the current high exchange rates continue for the next 12 months, Meat & Wool New Zealand Chairman, Mike Petersen says.

"Under the current 79-80 US exchange rate, gross farm revenue decreases 9 per cent to $3.6 billion. This reduction totals $400 million or $26,000 at the farm gate, for the average commercial sheep and beef farmer and it follows from two tough years."

Hong Kong Qindex 04:28 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
USDX (Sept) : The weekly cycle projected series indicates that the market is consolidating between 79.72 - 80.30. The market is stable when it is trading above 79.82 which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the weekly cycle upper barrier at 80.41 // 80.50.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:26 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 24th:

Today’s Favored FX Trade:
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 24th:

My favored FX Trade for Today is GBP/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 04:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
NZ Traders Flocking to Foreign Exchange
Tuesday, 24 July 2007, 12:59 pm
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0707/S00450.htm

London NYAM 04:24 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Also I would'nt be surpried to see USDJPY pitching in at a low hereabouts (120.40) with risk to 120.25. That may be the catalyst for m/t dollar 'come-back.' (But don't call it that).

hk ab 04:22 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, agree very much. Unless some "strange" new actions taken, which we doubt a lot.

PAR//you should call up your BOJ friends now otherwise, we are going to see 115 by month end.

Hong Kong Ahe 04:18 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 03:35 GMT - This little dip changes the remaining bears to bulls now. NZDUSD is frenzy like GBPUSD breaking key of 2.0000 which is now at 2.0640.

London NYAM 03:57 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD: The lady's not for turning. Notice the resiliance of that aformentioned (and still hypothetical) 2-4 trend line formed from July 10th (6:00)and 13th (7:00) lows. shows up best on hourlies. Now need a break below 2.0595/600 to get a correction in.

Mumbai Deepak 03:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
DS......Dont know that you are in or not yet, however, today's for the record books.

USD-INR Last at 40.2125/2225. Lowest since 15-May-1998. :)

Also see the rally in the SGD.

Syd 03:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Japan PM Not Planning To Resign If Weekend Elections Go Badly
TOKYO (AP)--Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe does not plan to resign even if his ruling party fares badly in parliamentary elections this weekend, his top spokesman said Tuesday.


bbsapul 03:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
rbnz intervene???
no kidding.. just this 30+ pips?

Syd 03:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Most Americans see President George W. Bush as intransigent on Iraq and prefer that the Democratic-controlled Congress make decisions about a possible withdrawal of U.S. forces, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Sydney ACC 03:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ intervenes

Mtl JP 03:11 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:01 / It might pay more to look at the research group's very grand censored-u-me umptions rather rather than the substance of their proposal:

1) Can "China" - whatever that is - actualy efectively communicate is edict ?
2) and even IF it did effectively communicate its edict, does it have and effective way to supervise and enforce it through its banking and legal system ?

"The sky is high and the emperor lives far away." according to Wang Xiangwei in the South China's China Briefing of 16th July 2007. The edicts probably never go very far beyond Zhongnonhai (the government complex in Beijing) given China markets behaviour to date.

USA Zeus 03:07 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Yes can cover a little- but am staying with my favored trade e/j.
Like new contra on GBP/USD. Still have gold targeting higher from mid 640's- levels into the big lucky 7xx likely.

malaysia semiji 03:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hi all, anyone know for eurusd,,tq

malaysia semiji 03:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
hi all ,anyone know about eurusd,,tq

hk ab 02:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
easy hint is inspecting the sentiment on GVI.....

hk ab 02:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
bulls=bears

hk ab 02:30 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
kiwi move mimics gold move in 2006,
So, top picker got squeezed..... as long as we still see people saying short kiwi, it will not go down.

Once all bulls died (far from there). The strike back will be swift and untold.

Makassar Alimin 02:28 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
limit short aud 0.8888

Syd 02:21 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ being held hostage by the Japanese housewives quite funny really

USA Zeus 02:20 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Ok- No more longing GBP/USD for now. Time to play top picker and fade. Short 2.0639. Will do my best to add more at a higher price.

LOL

Syd 02:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
NZD/AUD taps 2-week peak of 0.9152, looks set to extend uptick ahead of tomorrow's 2Q Aussie CPI data, says an ANZ Bank dealer; targets 1.5 year high of 0.9180-9200 if CPI comes in softer-than-expected and further cools RBA rate hike expectations. "In contrast, the market here expects (RBNZ) to tighten on Thursday ... there's more to go for the Kiwi just looking at the momentum." Tips 0.9100 to support, target 0.9180, last 0.9150

Patra alex 02:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Added 0.5 position to earlier NZD/USD shorts at 0.8095

Patra alex 02:15 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 02:08 GMT July 24, 2007

I'm off too. Eyes closing gl gt!

Toronto MRC 02:08 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:54 GMT July 24, 2007

I was kidding. My point is with a few hundred million leverage a 300 pip poke in the eye stings. The kiwi is a small playground being ruled by the bully. If the RBNZ shows up once in a while and gives the bully a fat lip he is likely to look for a different playground. Even big funds set stops.(the expectation of sharp directional moves invites a new group to position for those sharp moves adding balance)

RBNZ can buy time sell kiwi buy yen (destined to appreciate and dollars oversold but waiting for rates to rise). Over the next 1-2 years as carry (yen) disappears RBNZ wins.

Early post mentioned dropping rates---buying power of imported goods to high leading to inflation spending powers. Non convention would say cut purchasing power cut demand cut inflation. Good Luck G/T (last post tonight)

Syd 02:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Falling dollar puts pressure on Opec
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/743a52a2-3959-11dc-ab48-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 02:01 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
China should consider raising interest rates again during the second half to slow overly rapid investment and asset-price growth, a research arm under Beijing's economic planning agency said in a report published in Tuesday's China Securities Journal.

China should also continue to use open market operations and hikes in banks' reserve requirement ratios to curb money supply growth, the research group at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research said in the report.

China's monetary policy should take asset prices into account and focus on interest-rate policies, it said.

The research group said the report doesn't represent the views of the academy, which is under the National Development and Reform Commission. Research arms of government agencies don't set policy, but their recommendations can be influential.


Newspaper Web site: http://www.cs.com.cn

Patra alex 01:54 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Depens from the position size, from the level of confidence and if it's st mt lt

Toronto MRC 01:50 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:38 GMT July 24, 2007
Toronto MRC 01:35 GMT July 24, 2007

How wide are your stops?

Hong Kong Qindex 01:47 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

Syd 01:39 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Clark cuts down Cullen’s credibility
Mr English says Dr Cullen made it clear in Parliament that the reason he raised Section 12 was to alert the so called Japanese housewives that he has the power to intervene and he might use it.

“If Dr Cullen has now officially passed responsibility for the Finance portfolio on to the Finance and Expenditure select committee – perhaps Helen Clark should tell the rest of the country.” http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0707/S00376.htm

Patra alex 01:38 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 01:35 GMT July 24, 2007

I don't mean Japan to be involved, I just mentioned the time. They also intervened at the past. So what? We are at 0.8085. If they intervene they will give the chance to carry traders to load some more at better prices. I guess that the real unwind will begin somewhere between 0.85-0.90

Syd 01:36 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
MARKET SCRAMBLE: Strong Managers Key To Foreigners' Value Picks

TOKYO (Nikkei)--With Japanese stocks increasingly seen as discounted relative to their overseas counterparts, some foreign investors are targeting undervalued companies with sound management.

Toronto MRC 01:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:31 GMT July 24, 2007

Japan used to intervene between 1-3 am New York. At the moment Japan has no Reason to be involved. RBNZ intervened before 3-400 pips ago and has to prove they have nuts. They have been warning the market now the have to show they weren't kidding /2-300 pip move. imvho

Patra alex 01:31 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 01:28 GMT July 24, 2007

To me it looks more likely on early jp opening where market is thinner

Toronto MRC 01:28 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
If I had to bet, interventions would occur after the local stock market closes. To punish the speculator but not disrupt the local market. imho

Syd 01:26 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
manchester st thanks ..

Patra alex 01:25 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Let's see if USD/CHF bounces from FM's 1.2030

Patra alex 01:20 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY 166.81. Will set stops before going to bed

manchester st 01:17 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:13 GMT July 24, 2007
No Syd it hasnt..but better check yours!!

Patra alex 01:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Thinking to try a EUR/JPY long with tight stop.. Your views please?

Syd 01:13 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Has the ticker above stopped ?

NY Ed 01:12 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patr...correction reversal etc etc... I placed the wrong trade, now I will either pull the trigger or give Japan a couple of hours..OH time...you censored

Patra alex 01:10 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 01:06 GMT July 24, 2007

I guess there would be a correction at 2.0650/2.07. Most probably a correction than a reversal

Patra alex 01:08 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT July 24, 2007

I agree with you, but since the market has priced in a hike a no hike will cause a NZD sell. Short term of course

NY Ed 01:06 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex....I hear ya...so much for my charts...but when I go hourly I see RSI Stochastics MACD all show reversal.
Plus are we ready for 2.07 cable, too much to quick..all that being said. I'm short and I losing

Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 00:53 GMT July 24, 2007
Sydney ACC 00:48 GMT July 24, 2007

Government ought to give RBNZ more slack on inflation target which will take pressure off increasing rates. Nonetheless in the longer term that probably won't make much difference on the currency the differential will still be huge.

Patra alex 01:04 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 00:53 GMT July 24, 2007

Top pickers cause problems to overbought zones extending them even more

Patra alex 01:03 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Planning to add another 0.5 position if 0.8095 is seen

Patra alex 00:58 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 10:29 GMT July 23, 2007

Closed at 1.2031 for 4 pips.

Short NZD/USD 0.8080

Syd 00:56 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
this is a false move before the pull back pre data

Toronto MRC 00:55 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
BOJ not likely but RBNZ never know.

Patra alex 00:54 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 00:50 GMT July 24, 2007

Maybe, let's see now if BOJ acts since USD/JPY approaching 120

NY Ed 00:53 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex...Unfortunately I did, who wouldhave "think" it, I see it as overbought

Patra alex 00:53 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:48 GMT July 24, 2007

Since they are shouting about overvalued NZD they should. But I guess they won't cut rates. At least they shouldn't hike

Patra alex 00:51 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 00:47 GMT July 24, 2007

Hope you didn't short it

Syd 00:50 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:48 never know what they are thinking , due to the fact the rise is all specs they could do something out of the blue

Toronto MRC 00:50 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:48 GMT July 24, 2007
Patra alex 00:44 GMT July 24, 2007

Would make a lot of senses.


This current move feels dollar driven not yen.

Patra alex 00:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:46 GMT July 24, 2007

NZD/USD looks nice for a short here. And even better on Wednesday before the rbnz

Wellington, N.Z. 00:49 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 24th:

My favored FX Trade for Today is EURO/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

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Max McKegg/TRL

Sydney ACC 00:48 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 00:44 GMT July 24, 2007
Syd 00:30 GMT July 24, 2007
There are some economists (non-market) who have suggested that RBNZ should cut rates. Highly unlikely but imagine if that occurred.

NY Ed 00:47 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
anyone thinking Cable should be SHORT here

Syd 00:46 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 00:44 GMT agree they seem to be letting it run wild for now

Patra alex 00:44 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:30 GMT July 24, 2007

We will have real action if RBNZ doesn't hike. I guess that will fuel the jpy

Syd 00:43 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Talk if the RBNZ and AUD this week disappoints analyst say can see 200-300 drop this week

hk ab 00:43 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
a bit more steam for gbp from the eur/gbp dive if close under 67

hk ab 00:42 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR is calling KAMPO now....

Toronto MRC 00:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
You would think but I would have guessed we might have seen more gbp aud nzd dollar selling through the crosses but not much is showing. I'm starting to think some of these trades are in need of intervention. To me gbpusd and nzdusd seem badly ovebought and extremly one sided. imho

Sydney ACC 00:41 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
One of the large Japanese banks has recommended going short euro against yen on the basis euro area economy topping out.

NY Ed 00:36 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC you think it's a BIG JPY open

Syd 00:35 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 00:32 looks like yen buying , i could be wrong

Toronto MRC 00:32 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Any news kick starting this last dollar sell off?

Syd 00:30 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 00:17 well its a gamble isnt it and every tom dick and harry is at it now along with the Sushi women- RBNZ have their work well and truly cut out

Patra alex 00:17 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:12 GMT July 24, 2007

Nice post. Really, is it an opportunity?

Patra alex 00:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
The jpy train began

Patra alex 00:16 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
The jpy train began

Wellington, N.Z. 00:13 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 24th:


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Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 00:12 GMT July 24, 2007 Reply   
Is the weak United States dollar an investment opportunity? By the way people have been walking into banks and grabbing fistfuls of foreign exchange, you would have to think so.

"I was talking to a mate who's a bank manager the other Friday and he said they'd run out of US dollars," says Scott Healey of NZ Currency Concepts.

"People were buying US$10,000 and US$20,000 cash. They'd just run out. And this was probably their biggest branch in the country."

This is certainly the brutally simple approach to taking advantage of what seems an unsustainable imbalance between the Kiwi and US dollars.
Dallas Squire, head of forex at OM Financial, says many New Zealand farmers and business owners have been forced to learn about currency dealing to hedge their export-based income.

Because the Kiwi dollar is about the most volatile currency in the developed world, many individuals are entering the money markets just to buy insurance against its more extreme swings.

But equally, a growing number of speculators are having a go.

All they need is a PC, a forex account and perhaps some tipster software, and they are ready to do some day trading.

It is a risky business. And in the past year, even many professional forex traders have been burnt. So how does it work exactly?

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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