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Forex Forum Archive for 07/25/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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dc CB 23:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
"" the No. 3 U.S. home builder, on Wednesday posted a second-quarter loss after one of the largest writes-down for impairments and land-related costs the U.S. builders have taken.""

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2543983520070725?rpc=44

Mtl JP 23:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Alex 23:24 / apparently changes a-coming, according to The Economic Dynamics of Global Integration - Geithner
"...these (deficit) gaps remain substantial and the U.S. fiscal position is unsustainable. Time does not help. We are going to have to begin to develop a political consensus on the mix of policy changes that can bring our commitment and resources more into balance, if we are to preserve confidence in our market and our long-term economic prospects. ..."

Patra alex 23:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
How can you fight inflation when putting a tax on the interest rates? Can't understand that..

hk ab 23:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
audnzd benefits the most seem.....
now only a weekly T/L resistance left.

Wellington, N.Z. 23:31 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for THURSDAY - JULY 26th:

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

hk ab 23:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Just as predicted. That hike decision must be leaked so that carry warrier has all the brave needed to start longing from 7950.....

But sounds to me there's a new tax, isn't it?

UK Alex 23:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Nomura has 266 billion yen of MBS on its books.

UK Alex 23:24 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:48 GMT July 25, 2007
For the Fed that's a triumph in the face of adversity.

Sydney ACC 23:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
One way of reducing the US current accounbt deficit:

Japan's nine biggest banking groups have more than ¥1 trillion of combined holdings in products backed by U.S. subprime mortgages, the Nikkei English News reported.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group probably owns about ¥330 billion in securities backed by U.S. mortgages, while the smaller Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group has about ¥100 billion in such assets, the article said, citing Hironari Nozaki, an analyst at Nikko Citigroup, based in Tokyo.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/24/business/sxasia.php

Toronto MRC 22:56 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:54 GMT July 25, 2007

lol

Sydney ACC 22:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:46 GMT July 25, 2007
Another case of traders wrapping up a sow's ear in fancy wrapping and calling it a silk purse.
At the end of the day all these guys were doing were getting sub-prime paper collateralising it, calling it investment grade, taking 2.5% to 3% and going off home thinking they were the smartest guys in town. fortunately these guys limited their (Whoops,sorry their client's exposure!) to smaller perecntage than Basis.

Sydney ACC 22:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bollard today in his statement says Kiwi's have a very strong incentive to save given the OCR rate of 8.25%. Interest is taxed at 30% which reduces the real rate to 5.8% and inflation most items is between 2% and 3% so that reduces the benefit of deferring spending for year to about 3.5%.
Introducing a tax free threshold on interest earned on savings of say NZD 500 per person, or NZD 1,000 per family would more likely entice someone to save.

Syd 22:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Credit Mkt Mess Hits Australia Absolute Capital


0041 GMT [Dow Jones] Yet another Australian boutique fund manager that has dabbled in structured credit says it's taking measures to cope with blowout in credit spreads; says it will temporarily suspend withdrawals from two of its yield strategy funds, which have A$200 million invested. Says its exposure to U.S. subprime sector only 5% of total but lack of liquidity in structured credit markets generally means it's difficult to properly value assets. Says it won't process any withdrawal requests until Oct. 25. Follows Basis Capital's move in early July to suspend withdrawals from two of its funds.

Syd 22:41 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Commodity prices unsustainable: Access
Demand for industrial commodities from countries such as China and India is still accelerating, but may not be sustainable, independent forecaster Access Economics says.


http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/commodity-prices-unsustainable-access/20070426-prw.html

Patra alex 22:40 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 19:08 GMT July 25, 2007

Closed 1/2 at 1.3726 for 18 pips. s/l to entry for rest

Patra alex 22:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 19:22 GMT July 25, 2007

Closed at 1.4301 for 25 pips

dc CB 22:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:11 GMT July 25, 2007
Debt problems may signal end of buy-out boom

I joked when Blackstone IPO'd.... the end of Priv Equi buyouts marked by the Black Stone. :)

Syd 22:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 22:28 many thanks :-)

Bon Air VA Dennis 22:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:11 GMT

"You the man" when it comes to posting useful articles like this one! Many thanks! :)

Syd 22:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ "looks to be on hold from here", says ASB treasury economist Daniel Wills, referring to comments by the central bank that 4 straight OCR increases will likely be "sufficient to contain inflation". Notes housing, labor, capacity utilization and retail data will be key; expects further moderation in housing market over coming months - consistent with latest anecdotes and market data - which will reinforce on-hold message. Tips next RBNZ move will be a cut, likely around December 2008, as domestic inflation pressures slowly unwind.

Toronto MRC 22:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
I would suggest that with rates on hold the Kiwi side of the equation would encourage carry trade between yen to purchase kiwi bonds with potential upside in bond price on the prospect of future falling rates. However this elastic band is pulled tight and new carrys are aggresive players not so interested in bond yields. Differential with Japan will shrink on yen rate increase so I would look towards Jpn economic release and rate talk to dictate short term kiwi moves. In addition high oil and credit issues may draw money back to safe haven currency (usd) further putting downward force on kiwi and aussie dollar while cad may be supported by oil. Golds fall still suggest a quiet/stealth cover in carry. imho gl/gt

Syd 22:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Debt problems may signal end of buy-out boom
The eight banks selling £9bn worth of loans for Boots, the biggest buy-out in UK history, threw in the towel on trying to place £5bn in senior loans and sold £1.75bn of more junior debt at far bigger discounts than expected. The size of the discounts more than wiped out their 2–2.5 per cent fees, leaving them with sizeable losses.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ca48c19e-3ace-11dc-8f9e-0000779fd2ac.html

Philadelphia Caba 22:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] RBNZ trying to signal today's rate rise is last of rate hike cycle and it intends to allow time for recent rate rises to take effect, says CBA Chief Currency Strategist Richard Grace. Says NZD may find it difficult to rally for a while and some NZD selling will probably emerge over next few days as some participants exit strategic long positions; NZD currently more than 10% above its 200-day moving average and this has always been a traditional downward signal. A 3.2% dip for NZD/USD to 0.7750 wouldn't be a major surprise, he adds. Support due around those levels.

Syd 22:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ's tone clearly more dovish than market was expecting, says RBC Senior Economist Su-Lin Ong. RBC has no further hikes pencilled in, with cash rate steady through to end of 2008, but thinks risk is that RBNZ may need to resume tightening and will be monitoring data flow closely. Ong says RBNZ clearly would prefer not to lift rates any further largely due to its concern over soaring NZD

Philadelphia Caba 21:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
re kiwi: watch today japan reaction and friday close..

Lahore FM 21:55 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:25 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 12:13 GMT July 25, 2007
short nzdjpy 96.93,stops 97.45,target open.
---

closed 1/3rd at 96.37
stops to entry heading into rbnz.
--
there was a crazy spike to the entry price reaching 96.97 that took the partial out for cumulative 56 pip gain.

manchester sc 21:53 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
okay, where do i put a limt sell on nzd/usd. 8060 with stops above 8110. any views?

teh 21:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
From now until early to mid 2008, the super-long range projection for the EURUSD is Short - period.

EURUSD has pinged just under a 13 year high. There's nothing supporting a $1.4535 move from a probability standpoint (I'm a pure technical trader). Fundamentals might support that type of move, but I don't even see that on the horizon as far as news is concerned.

Today, is a watershed event. This short break represents the initiation of the Annual Apex Short Cycle - or what I call, the AASC. It came rather late this year and waited until July to formulate and show itself. That fact is a huge signal to the "wise" super-long term "trader" in the EURUSD. There is no need to panic, however given today’s move. Entry pricing into the AASC near the $1.3852 (for the long-term "trader") will be seen again.

Bottom line, the stored probability/potential for the Annual short side move has reached critical levels for the 2007 to 2008 apex (every year has its own apex).

Go back and look at 2006's high of 3365, 2005's high of 3571, 2004's high of 3664 and then take a look across the vast ocean of what you DON'T SEE between 2004's high and 1997's high of 3669. Then look at 1995's high of 4535 in contrast to 2007's high of (currently) 3852. Take a look at the Annual Low's for each of the same years, then compare it tot he Annual low of this year. Again, this only applies to the super-long term "trader/investor". 2007 blew its top and went 13 years deep into history with its move up to 3852. That’s a pretty deep historical push for ANY tradable instrument. Unless the EURUSD is planning on busting 17 years worth of history by going through $1.4535, then it now MUST stall and begin a reluctant fall into its Annual Apex Short Cycle. Super Long-Term Traders/Investors need to understand these technical facts about the EURUSD and Day Traders need to understand where the source of price momentum is coming from and when that “source” of price momentum is undergoing a “state change”.

For the Day Trader:

24hr horizontal price action has commenced with the 7/25/07 move for the next several months, making channel and range more predictive, but not a slam dunk as the upside bias from a continuation of the Annual upside cycle of 2006, was pretty darn strong. So, expect contiguous 24hr bars (day trades) to give the appearance of long-trend continuation at times (over the next couple of weeks), with the understanding that genuine Annual “state changes” in momentum typically require "time" to formulate the Apex as opposed to Daily, Weekly and Monthly “state changes”. You won't be able to look back and see the Annual Apex state change on your charts until it finishes its cycle. Mark this date on your calendar and check back in 2008 at about the same time and you will clearly see the Apex being described here, today. I did this same kind of post in 2006, targeting above the 3000 level when the price was nearer to the 1800 level. Back then, some thought the “trend” would continue sending the EURUSD down to near the 1000 level or lower. Now, we can look back and see that the 2006 Annual Apex Long Cycle (AALC) was indeed correctly noted. Rest assured - you are looking at yet another Annual Apex Cycle in the making right now.

Over the next several months, expect to see both Short and Long Day Trading opportunities. Short 24hr bar opportunities coming from strong 24 hour long side triggers (in other words, previous session high's being taken out should provide for good short side opportunities under the "right conditions" for the short-term Day Trader as the EURUSD’s Annual energy gets converted from Long bias to Short bias. Pure Day Traders should thrive in this environment. Long 24hr bar opportunities coming from strong 24 hour short side triggers that happen mid to late week. However, be careful on any long side hold while using small’ish stops as the Annual energy state change in the EURUSD begins to turn south over the next few to several months. Pure Trend Traders, won’t like this environment all that much and many will find themselves falling behind the power-curve over the next couple of months, or taking in very small profits from poorly timed entries – so heed the warning.

Long Term Outlook Target? 3100'ish. Timeframe? Who cares - if you are a super-long term "trader/investor", but I would guestimate 2-6 months with a serious possibility of extending well through the initial first quarter of 2008, Unless the EURUSD decides to break 17 years worth of history. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

So, if I were in the market with say…oh… a cool $271 million right now divided into several smaller trades at various cost basis levels, I’d be Short the EURUSD right now with a flexible 100 pip stop and looking down range into 2008, feeling pretty darn happy about the decision.

Lahore FM 21:26 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Sapul,post tokyo open 0.8081 is the high for the session.

Gen dk 21:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 21:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
the censored word is j-a-p.

Lahore FM 21:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 21:20 GMT July 25, 2007
if you asked with gmt timings i would be able to tell.post rbnz it rose as high as 0.8053.

bbsapul 21:20 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hi lahore:

whats the high of nzd as of 5 pm?

did it spike to 08161 first?

Lahore FM 21:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:08 GMT July 24, 2007
yes mmm,both positions are on.had removed nzdusd stops.

Lahore FM 21:16 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:53 GMT July 23, 2007
Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 20, 2007
ndusd short 0.7987,stops at 0.8040.
--

raised stops to 0.8060.sold one more at 0.8026.
----
closed 0.7987 short at 0.8006 for 19 pips loss.
keeping 0.8026 short and nzdjpy partial short from 96.93.would like to add if 0.8060 seen though looks likely but we can have some censored housewives buying into this nzd weakness with ever abundant jpy.

GVI john 21:15 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
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Philadelphia Caba 21:15 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
expecting kiwi back below .7000 by the year end ('07 lol)

Syd 21:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 21:09 GMT cheers didnt notice i had doubled up .

Philadelphia Caba 21:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
rbnz says expect no further tightening (sexy b.)

Syd 21:10 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The New Zealand economy is running strong. We are recording continued big increases in international commodity prices, especially dairy, reflecting solid world demand for our products.

"This is very good news for New Zealand. Given this positive situation, some of the negative commentary circulating about the economy is unwarranted.

"However, the continued tight labour market, high capacity use, and rising oil and food prices all point to sustained inflationary pressures. That is why we are increasing the OCR today.

"The New Zealand dollar has reached very high levels recently, driven by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders' heavy demand for borrowing. This level of the currency has been hurting exports.

"The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.

"New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing. Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation."

Toronto MRC 21:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will increase by 25 basis points to 8.25 percent.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: “The New Zealand economy is running strong. We are recording continued big increases in international commodity prices, especially dairy, reflecting solid world demand for our products.

“This is very good news for New Zealand. Given this positive situation, some of the negative commentary circulating about the economy is unwarranted.

“However, the continued tight labour market, high capacity use, and rising oil and food prices all point to sustained inflationary pressures. That is why we are increasing the OCR today.

“The New Zealand dollar has reached very high levels recently, driven by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders’ heavy demand for borrowing. This level of the currency has been hurting exports.

“The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.

“New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing.

Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation.”



Lahore FM 21:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

incorrectly collated.


Lahore FM 21:08 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 20:04 GMT July 11, 2007
Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007

Philadelphia Caba 21:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bollard: nz labour market tight and capacity use high
indicators point to sustained price pressure

Lahore FM 21:08 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:04 GMT July 11, 2007
Lahore FM 18:22 GMT July 9, 2007
short nzdusd 0.7799.tentative stops at 0.7840.target 0.7640.
---
closed for the moment at 0.8006 for 7 pip loss.

keeping nzdjpy partial short.

Toronto MRC 21:06 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
rbnz hiked?

Philadelphia Caba 21:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
rbnz Bollard: nz economy running strong

Philadelphia Caba 21:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
was wrong about no hike view...now, rbnz can intervene again..lol..

Lahore FM 21:02 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
nzd dipping.

Philadelphia Caba 21:02 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
rbnz hike

Syd 20:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Property gloom as another one bites the dust
Australian privately-owned mortgage provider John West & Associates has collapsed with debts of over $A9.5m. The firm had already attracted the scrutiny of the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, for allegedly operating an illegal managed investment scheme. It may have contravened the Corporations Act by taking money from investors and paying them low interest rates, while also channelling the funds at much higher rates to commercial borrowers. Court action over that claim is scheduled for 10 September 2007. John West administrator Meertens Chartered Accountants says it is not yet known what kind of return the about 50 investors can expect

Sydney ACC 20:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Another Sydney hedge fund freezes withdrawals to prevent run

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/sydney-hedge-fund-freezes-withdrawals-to-prevent-run/2007/07/25/1185339081688.html

Wellington, N.Z. 20:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for THURSDAY - JULY 26th:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Bon Air VA Dennis 20:06 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 19:35 GMT
;) ;)

Sydney ACC 19:50 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bollard faces tough call on interest rates

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10453915&pnum=2

USA Zeus 19:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Something to keep an eye on- US equity earnings is red hot.

USA Zeus 19:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Glad we didn't go marlin fishing in Maui this week and miss all this. Anticipating plenty of vibrations from asia on to Friday as the ripple effect grows and grows for more and more flows.

Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 17:43 GMT July 25, 2007
CB,i liked what is posted in there re jpy.hot money can make markets sizzle,no?

Stockholm za 19:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

Bucketshop sellside commentary!!

Patra alex 19:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Anyone trading NOK?

Patra alex 19:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Long EUR/CAD 1.4274

USA Zeus 19:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Was going to complain about higher commissions having to call orders in to the pit while Globex was offline.

Mr Purkson taught me better (as only a clog can do) as "giving" is the word of the day.
LOL

Patra alex 19:08 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Long EUR/USD t/p Zeus magnet 7777

USA Zeus 18:55 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
77.77 oil is still coming JJ.

USA Zeus 18:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:37 GMT July 25, 2007

Well there's 76.07 for a 260 pip session move
LOL

Mtl JP 18:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:55 / a picture of explicitly saying

USA Zeus 18:37 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Total quadra crusher in oil from 73.47 to 75.91!!
LOL

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
In s/term (ref g-v Forex calendar tom's 8:00GMT EZ Jun M3 10.6% 10.7% might catalyse euro to move some.

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Some BB highlights:

- Employment continued to increase in most locations and in many sectors of the economy.
(as expected)

- Most Districts said that residential construction and real estate activity continued to decline on balance.
(as expected)

- Most District reports indicated that manufacturing activity continued to expand during June and early July
(as expected)

- Contacts generally reported ongoing input cost pressures, particularly for petroleum-related inputs, while prices at the retail level continued to increase at a moderate rate.
(as expected)

- Many Districts described overall wage gains as moderate and/or similar to the previous reporting period. However, many also pointed to significant upward pressure on wages and salaries for in-demand, high-skilled workers.
(as expected)

In aggregate, maybe no cause for rate hike just yet and remain worried and vigillant, but no catalyst for a cut either.

Lahore FM 18:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
**
Lahore FM 18:18 GMT July 25, 2007
long eurusd 1.3708**,no stops at the moment.

Lahore FM 18:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
long eurusd 1.3608,no stops at the moment.

dc CB 18:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:54 GMT July 25, 2007
dc CB 17:43 / writing was on the wall earlier

Yah, but the game kept going for another 60-70 Snp points, plus dow records, and the Naz "comeback from the dead" ...all on the lottery ticket mentality of whose gonna get taken private next at a 20% premium. That game is now. The question is what's the next game.

Mtl JP 18:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Beige Book July 25, 2007

madrid mm 18:02 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
munich st 16:18 GMT July 25, 2007
mm, you mean we are going to see 3680 :-)

you mean -
-the Dow
-the dax
-kiwi
-other ?

8+-)

Mtl JP 17:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 17:43 / writing was on the wall earlier: financial alchemists *Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. [KKR.UL] is haggling over fees as it seeks partners for its $29 billion First Data Corp. (FDC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) deal after tapping out traditional investors. - reuters june 12t

Tapping out.. traditional investors... vs non-traditional, habrakadabra

dc CB 17:43 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
apparently in addtion to the Chrysler deal it is also being reported that KKR failed to sell $10 bln of Boots loans.

imho: just musing.

if Priv Equity can no longer make the loans to lay off their risk for these deals on "other people" perhaps these controllers of huge pools of capital may turn their eye to the Yen...as the one-sidedness of this aging trade offers the greatest bang for the buck and the funds bottom line come the end of the quarter.

Patra alex 17:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD seems to be a nice mt long from current levels. Will add lower if seen.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:43 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Weekly cycle analyses were posted in the GV Forex Blog.

USA Zeus 16:43 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Just killing it in oil as one of today's favored trade as mentioned,

LOL

Cbj Jake 16:42 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
GVI john(16:35): Bravo! When thinking becomes too casual and hip, disciplined formal thinking suffers.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :: Weekly Cycle Analysis

USD/JPY : As shown in my weekly cycle projected series the market is going to vibrate around 121.41 with an expected magnitude of 120.98 - 121.83 initially during early period of this week. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 120.56. This is in agreement with the monthly cycle projected series which indicates that the market is working on the barrier at 120.59 // 121.03.



Weekly Cycle Reference : ... 116.31 - 117.16* - 118.01 - 118.43 // 118.86* - 119.28 - 119.71 - 120.13 - 120.56* - 120.98 - [121.41] - 121.83 - 122.26* - 122.68 - 123.11 - 123.53 - 123.96* // 124.38 - 124.81 - 125.66* - 126.51 ...


Weekly Distribution of Super Magnets : (116.31) - (118.86) - 119.20* - 119.37 - 120.32 - 120.45* - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70* - 122.21 - 122.96* - 123.16 - (123.96) - 124.21* - (126.51)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USDX (Sept) : Weekly Cycle Analysis

Weekly Cycle (80.15) : ... 78.65 - 78.85* - 79.04 - 79.14 // 79.24* - 79.33 - 79.43 - 79.53 - 79.63* - 79.72 - [79.82] - 79.92 - 80.02* - 80.11 - 80.21 - 80.31 - 80.41* // 80.50 - 80.60 - 80.80* - 80.99 ...



USDX (Sept) : The weekly cycle projected series indicates that the market is consolidating between 79.72 - 80.30. The market is stable when it is trading above 79.82 which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the weekly cycle upper barrier at 80.41 // 80.50.

GVI john 16:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Suggestion : for clarity use the full price 1.3680.

hk ab 16:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
I Think the key is not hike or not hike anymore but the continuation of nzd/jpy carry or not... That will include the dlr/jpy movement into considertion.

manchester sc 16:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
any views on if we will see a rbnz rate hike later?

munich st 16:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, you mean we are going to see 3680 :-)

ldn 16:15 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
" I dont mind loosing , as long as it costs me less than when i win" ..

madrid mm 16:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Remember:
There is nothing worse in the trading game than thinking that you know where the market is going . Every seasonned traders will confirm that.

Gen dk 16:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 16:06 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
8005, therefore, never filled.

hk ab 16:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
after announcing the soldiers, the biggies simply buy up all kiwi above there.....

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:44 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 18, 2007
long usdchf 1.2017,target open,stopless.
----

Out of 1/3rd at 1.2144 for 127 pips.stops now placed at 1.2040 for 2/3rds.
--
closed all at 1.2145 for cumulative 128 pips.

UK Alex 15:55 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Back in late October 2004 Dow Jones Newswires carried an interview with Japan’s former vice-finance minister for international affairs, Eisuke Sakakibara. Fresh back from a visit to the US during which he met with both current and former government and central bank officials in Washington and New York, his comments were revealing. In particular, he noted that a "surprisingly large" number of the people he met seemed to hold the view that "some sort of foreign exchange adjustment," could be used to address the US twin current account and budget deficits. He then memorably argued that Washington might choose to tolerate a USD fall in a form of "benign neglect," even without explicitly saying that's what it was doing.

BoNYM: US currency policy

HK Kevin 15:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:27 GMT, no action needed atm. The market is still moving orderly. Personally, I expect a further attack of USD/JPY 120 level today.

UK Alex 15:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Anything connected with GM is significant. You won't ever see that stock go down. LBO funding is starting to look a bit dicey for the banks. They're going to need deep pockets.

Bodrum OEE 15:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:27 GMT July 25, 2007

I think the development is significant regardless of Chrysler related sensitivities.

dc CB 15:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bloomberg is reporting Chrysler abandoned plans to sell $12 bln of loans to complete its purchase by Cerberus Capital Mgmt after investors balked at purchasing the high-yield, high- risk debt, according to investors who were briefed on the decision.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

putting doubts into the Takeover market???
One of the biggies that's been keeping the market up. The daily need to own a lottery ticket.

hk ab 15:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
What could RBNZ prepare for us tomorrow?

Lahore FM 15:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:13 GMT July 25, 2007
short nzdjpy 96.93,stops 97.45,target open.
---

closed 1/3rd at 96.37
stops to entry heading into rbnz.

Lahore FM 15:21 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:01 GMT July 24, 2007
Lahore FM 11:41 GMT July 23, 2007
sold gbpjpy 249.50,tentative stops at 250.30.target 247.50.
--
closed half at 247.40 for 210 pips.
----------------------------------
Out of all at 246.50 for 300 pips.

USA Zeus 15:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT July 25, 2007

Ahh forget my 15:18 in that case.

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 15:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:11 GMT July 25, 2007

Sure- technically yes but I do believe it is rising against all fiats and non-fiats the same. Was not a position against the USD index etc. I think you get the point.

Have owned gold for many years- even back into 1980. But gold is not higher since then but am sure you would know more than anyone how much the USD has fluctuated since then and in what direction. LOL

Lahore FM 15:17 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:47 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 16:36 GMT July 24, 2007
most certainly working mmm.i had posted regarding futility of stops on usdchf when it ranged 9 days.i had none.

--
shorted gbpusd 2.0620*,stopless.

closed1/3rd at 2.0537 for 83 pips.stops placed at entry now for 2/3rds.
--
Out of another 1/3rd at 2.0497 for cumulative 123 pips.
stops further lowered to 2.0560 for last 1/3.

Lahore FM 15:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 25, 2007
short gbpjpy 247.60,mind stops at 248.40.target open.
--
Out of half at 246.80 for 80 pips.stops for 1/2 at entry now.

Mtl JP 15:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
fporget my 15:11, cross-posted against your 15:10 explenation.

Lahore FM 15:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:04 GMT July 24, 2007
Lahore FM 18:30 GMT July 24, 2007
last of the downticks on usd for what i see.still lower usdjpy though.
--
if we can get to 1.0480 usdcad and 1.2240 on usdchf then usd is for full recovery ff 80 on dixy.

Mtl JP 15:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 15:07 / buying Gold and selling what IF not usds? seems to u ve been quoting ur Gold purchases in terms of usd fiat.

Lahore FM 15:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
mmm,that was addressed to you.

Lahore FM 15:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy 245.80/90 as posted a while back.eurjpy ,JF is the best person to ask so is Purk.AB too.

USA Zeus 15:10 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:07 GMT July 25, 2007
I view gold as gold- not as the antithesis of the USD. Been buying that for some time now on the dips as posted.

Buyind USD's just recently. I just trade the flows on different time frames.

Lahore FM 15:10 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:00 GMT July 20, 2007
last gold short 679.00,stopless as before.will consider stopping on close above 688.
--
closed half at 673.90.

Lahore FM 15:08 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:52 GMT July 24, 2007
shorted nzdusd for a scalp 0.8083 with a stop for this scalp at 0.8110.

--
out of half at 0.8040..stops to entry for half.
--
Out of all at 0.8029 for 54 pips.

USA Zeus 15:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:01 GMT July 25, 2007

Been buying gold because I think the commodity will go higher.
Have been buying USD's for the same reason.

Netherlands Purk jnr 15:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:22 GMT July 25, 2007

Loonie is waiting to be taken up by the flight attendant...
LOL..NN already taken care of that...

Mtl JP 15:01 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 14:58 / is that why u r buying Gold (and selling usds)
*-^

USA Zeus 14:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Strong USD policy brings a whole new experience to the over-geared complacent USD bear when they least expect it.
LOL

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Silverfox / earlier posts on GVI:
From todays Black Swan's Dead Dollar Bounce: "For I’m here in beautiful Vancouver Canada this week to speak at an investment conference on Friday—everyone, and I mean everyone, is universally bearish on the buck. Amongst this crowd of attendees and investment “gurus” alike, especially the “gurus”, the dollar can ONLY go one way from here---down!" (would probably involve some presence timing luck to take advantage if/when it should happen)

and agree w/your 14:05: IF not (dlr phillip) from housing, maybe from "labour shortages" and "rising prices for food and energy products" - i.e "inflation expectations" - to fuel speculation about rate hike later today in Beige book.

Cali mmm 14:55 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
FM, can you share targets on GBPJPY & EURJPY ? TKS!

London NYAM 14:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Dollar best not break 120.05/00 otherwise its 119.35

nj jf 14:52 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Fm . that worked out quite well, see what asia holds later - gt

Gen dk 14:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 14:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Toronto Silverfox 14:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP-- looks like credit market likes the lower housing
numbers and look for continued weakness in housing as far as q1 or possibly q2 2008. Cant figure out the opposite direction
of USD especially since the Dow came right off and interest rates heading lower. Maybe just a slight correction in USD
since it has been steadily sold off last 3 weeks.

USA Zeus 14:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab- True will buy on deep dips
Still in on core from 27 pts lower
Bought another 671.40


Lahore FM 11:27 GMT July 25, 2007
very true friend.


Still heavy short e/u, gbp/u and e/j from the tops- brilliant!

HK [email protected] 14:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
.
hk ab 14:43 GMT July 25, 2007

Likely to 668, but so fast unbelievable

hk ab 14:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
another proof of biggies watching GVI....

HK Kevin 14:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, I am looking for a 200-300 pips correction in Aussie. At the moment, YEN crooss has hindered further uplegs of the twins.

hk ab 14:43 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus, your gold needs fuelk

USA Zeus 14:42 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Ahh what a glorious day!

Bodrum OEE 14:41 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Desperate Housewives

hk ab 14:40 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
can see that those soldiers this morning should have placed some b/e stop at .8000 line.

So, once it's touched, we all know what to do next. SAR.

HK Kevin 14:39 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab & HK RF, Qindex had some posts last year mentioning the coreleation between USD/JPY and Yen-Gold.

hk ab 14:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RF//I think it was sell yen or gold to buy aud and kiwi....

Makassar Alimin 14:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:35 GMT July 25, 2007

let's hope it is not the plastic soldiers we used to play

HK [email protected] 14:37 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:29 GMT July 25, 2007

If a carry trade of sell gold to buy yen existed last few days , which may be possible because likely sell yen buy gold existed for a while before, things are more clear for what may evolve.
Depends which party is stronger.

hk ab 14:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//seems the kiwi want to start the bowling game...

soldiers are waiting at .8000 line. unless a crush and a super dive to .76, carry never dies due to spread.

HK Kevin 14:33 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:23 GMT, I have weekly level 0.8848 other than Qindex's 0.8888. Short orders entered at 0.8845 this Mon, really a tough work.

hk ab 14:30 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
but i see eur is being attacked around all crosses atm.

hk ab 14:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RF//some pairs might have used gold has a carry already. So, when yen carry unwinds, gold carry also unwinds.

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Silverfox 14:04 / absolute units maybe ho hum.. but "Dollar up as US median home price rises for first time in nearly a yr" according to an AFX headline

Bodrum OEE 14:24 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
"I am not here" (quote from Watergate crooks' legal counsel in court to Bod Woodward). I am here. Thank you NYAM. Best wishes

HK [email protected] 14:24 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Another thrust of yen to the 120.70/80 range should not be discounted, but 119.50 is likely to follow soon, so I expect buyers at that level.

hk ab 14:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q does aud satisfy your m/t target and now starting its m/t retracement now?

London NYAM 14:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE// It was certainly a great break but I am also glad to get back involved. It was just a bit hot. Cheers OEE. Are you in? Havent seen you on.

Bodrum OEE 14:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

From heatwaves in Turkey to markets'. I hope you enjoyed Ceşme with your family and friends. Regards.

Lahore FM 14:08 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
looking now for 1.2200 and 1.2240/50.

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 13:51 GMT July 25, 2007
thanx mmm!

Toronto Silverfox 14:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Thats it til Beige book , watch Dow til then.

UK Alex 14:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. sales of existing homes fell 3.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million, the lowest rate since November 2002, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Sales in June were down 11.4% from June 2006. Inventories of unsold homes on the market fell by 180,000, or 4.2%, to 4.20 million, representing a 8.8-month supply at the June sales rate. The months' supply was also 8.8 months in May, the highest since 1992. The median sales price was $230,100, up 0.3% since June 2006. It's the first time in 11 months that median sales prices did not fall compared with a year earlier.

Toronto Silverfox 14:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
5.75 housing ho hum

hk ab 14:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
data?

Mtl JP 13:57 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
risk event on deck:

14:00GMT US June Existing Home Sales mrkt: 5.86mn last 5.99mn

HK [email protected] 13:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:41 GMT July 25, 2007

You are right, and even now, we dont have yet a clear signal that gold has reversed, but letting gold making an additional run to about 1000 did not look favorable to CB so I believe.

So I made that joke of:

HK [email protected] 14:16 GMT July 20, 2007
Gold near the point of "BANKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE" to repel the attack.

Cali mmm 13:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Good call on that one FM!

manchester sc 13:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd next stop 13690

Lahore FM 13:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:28 GMT July 23, 2007
mmm,from jpy action usdchf likely to come to 1.2035/40 and from there try for 1.2140/60.
--
let us see if there is more to usd strength from here.

hk ab 13:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
good news leaked?

Lahore FM 13:44 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:46 GMT July 18, 2007
long usdchf 1.2017,target open,stopless.
----

Out of 1/3rd at 1.2144 for 127 pips.stops now placed at 1.2040 for 2/3rds.

hk ab 13:41 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RF//last week actions are nto showing that case though.

HK [email protected] 13:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:31 GMT July 25, 2007

It may be that by this time while yen appreciates, gold will be used as a substitute for carry trade, which may add to it's bearishness.

London NYAM 13:37 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:33 GMT July 25, 2007 and RF
Possibility of extension to .6660 and if that breaks (god knows why it would) then the cross is really sick. But I vote long on the pair too from here .6685 as it appears also to have completed the minimum for 5 waves of a final c. fwiw

Lahore FM 13:33 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Tim,0.6800 won't surprise me for longs on the pair but of course the downside must hold around today's low to make for a starter.

Lahore FM 13:31 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:23 GMT July 25, 2007
quite agree RF!

NY tim 13:31 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:28 GMT July 25, 2007

whats the target sir

Toronto Silverfox 13:30 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Thinking eur/gbp holds this level and rally back towards
.6750-70 area. But keep tight stop and reverse at .6680.
Failed yesterdays bullish reversal, may follow through today.

Lahore FM 13:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:19 GMT July 25, 2007
am long 0.6709.let us see.

HK [email protected] 13:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
To be little bit imaginative gold has made a quazi-4-tops between mar-2007 to date, so what can one expect now.

For the near trading days 668 will provide a target, where it will not be a surprise to see it down to about 640 later few days(no guarantee).

hk ab 13:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
anyone trading eur/gbp here? look at that? funnymentals suggest long but...... after "suggested" here, it breaks thru the bottom.

HK Kevin 13:00 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Short AUD/JPY at 106.59 earlier with 30 pip stop, targetting again today's low.

Gen dk 12:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Patra alex 12:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:16 GMT July 25, 2007

Thank you very much sir.

Lahore FM 12:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:36 GMT July 24, 2007
most certainly working mmm.i had posted regarding futility of stops on usdchf when it ranged 9 days.i had none.

--
shorted gbpusd 2.0620*,stopless.

closed 1/3rd at 2.0537 for 83 pips.stops placed at entry now for 2/3rds.

Gen dk 12:45 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 12:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus do you give a stop for your gold?

London NYAM 12:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
out usdjpy long at 120.45

madrid mm 12:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
-The National Association of Realtors may report home resales fell to an annual rate of 5.86 million, the lowest since April 2003, from a 5.99 million pace in May, according to the median forecast of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Realtors group will release existing home sales figures at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 5.45 million to 6.12 million.

Also scheduled for release today is the Fed's Beige Book, a compendium of regional economic anecdotes that will be considered by Fed policy makers at their Aug. 7 meeting on interest-rate policy. The Beige Book is set for release at 2 p.m. Washington time.

Lahore FM 12:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 12:15 GMT July 25, 2007
agree there Revdax.hope you are very well.JF's post was jpy specific and referring to some of the posts on gvi side.gtgl!

Hong Kong Qindex 12:16 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 07:20 GMT July 25, 2007
Hong Kong Qindex 04:14 GMT July 25, 2007

I was referring about gold spot sir.

Thanks.

===========================

Spot Gold (Monthly Cycle) : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above [663.6] which is the center of the projected series. The monthly cycle upper normal limit is defined at 690.2. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate around 676.9* with an expected magnitude of 670.3 - 683.5. As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the upper barrier is located at 703.5* // 710.1. The current expected trading ranges are 660.1* // 667.0 - 673.9 - 687.7 - 701.5 ...

hk revdax 12:15 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:51//The mkt has already shown its hand---long $ and short Euro. Whatever 'news' will unlikely alter that pattern of development...imo

Lahore FM 12:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
short nzdjpy 96.93,stops 97.45,target open.

Lahore FM 11:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 25, 2007
short gbpjpy 247.60,mind stops at 248.40.target open.
--
target 245.80/90.

Lahore FM 11:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 11:49 GMT July 25, 2007
yes JF,quite agree.the market will show its hand soon.

nj jf 11:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
fm ......seems we will know in an hour or 2 whether to stay short or reverse to long.

Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy 247.60,mind stops at 248.40.target open.

Lahore FM 11:33 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:11 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 14:28 GMT July 18, 2007
additional usdchf long 1.2009,will consider closing for loss on day close basis rather than place a stop.
--
closed half at 1.2025 for 116 pips.
--
Out of full at 1.2136 for 125 pips.

Lahore FM 11:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
ab and Zeus not unlikely that we get down to 665 in a quick dip and maybe then even lower.let us see how the day develops.

Shenzhen Laowen 11:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Haha.Nice Yen crosses move.

hk ab 10:39 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
maybe bc is the one we can seek help and insight from current level of euros.

Gen dk 10:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 10:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:32 GMT, tomorrow or Fri close, we will know the answer.

hk ab 10:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
theoretically, yen crosses should hold here and make a quick return BUT this round seems there're some problems with the rocket....probably, due to this:

hk ab 18:06 GMT July 24, 2007
To my belief, mkt worked against all posted positions in gvi this month. I am not surprise to see dlr/cad reaching parity soon

Mumbai SAS 10:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Long Euros 1.3733 mental stops at the moment .... GL

hk ab 10:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
unless they are crushed badly like bowling ball, otherwise, lifelong carry....recent move is just a temp correction?

hk ab 10:15 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
I still have a feeling that the brave carry-trader are lining up at .80 line for kiwi.....

Gen dk 10:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai SAS 10:01 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Good Day ... Anyone looking to long the eur/usd at these levels .. think its a good buy at 3730 with a stop at 3690 and target recent highs .... GL

Mumbai NS 09:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q Gud day sir missing ur gud posts on gbp and euro sir if u culd share pls gl gt

Makassar Alimin 09:52 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
closed at 1.2115 for +117

Makassar Alimin 15:55 GMT July 18, 2007
long usdchf 1.1998 stop under 1.1950

USA Zeus 09:50 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:46 GMT July 25, 2007

Thx ab- Let's see...
cheers

hk ab 09:50 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
e/j stablize at 165 encourage all pairs to do a s/t reversal. (probably m/t too).

hk ab 09:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
NYC//because they sold gold.

hk ab 09:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
perfect call zeus on gold.

NYC 09:45 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Why is CHF weakening while carry trade is unwinding?
all CHF crosses are wekening day by day without any sign of halt!!!
GL/GT

Lahore FM 09:42 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:30 GMT July 25, 2007
yep ,just in time to prove that wrong.

USA Zeus 09:39 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:30 GMT July 25, 2007

Open target but 7xx is still open season imo
These are add-ons from 645.
GT

St. Annaland Bob 09:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

last one, it's not the price but the timing ... and for that, I am useful as the rain of years ago ... yes, god loves everybody here in this forum as all has access to the archives to follow posts of Mega Brains out Shanghai (aka BC)

Gen dk 09:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 09:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

also KIWI will take it's free fall, but it may take some extra time ... generally, EUR/USD prints above 14000 will cause theme of seeing positive things in USD to shine ... buy USD and hold waits for the prints out of atmosphere (i.e. 14000 and above) to start it's march back to gravity zones.

St. Annaland Bob 09:30 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:57 GMT July 24, 2007

good to hear all is fine on your end ... seems JPY started it's move as most lost their beleif that such move is to happen

hk ab 09:30 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus what's your target on this gold trade? 7xx?

USA Zeus 09:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Gold add-on 676.50

Lahore FM 09:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
correction**

closing for loss on day close basis rather than place a stop.
--
closed half at 1.2125** for 116 pips.

Lahore FM 09:24 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 09:14 GMT July 25, 2007
NS dear,sticking to view that jpy will humble nzd and aud both.

Syd 09:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Reasons To Buy JPY Again


0740 GMT [Dow Jones] Three reasons why the JPY could rebound. According to BNP Paribas not only did reports earlier this week show that Japanese pension funds might be switching into JGB's from higher yielding overseas assets, but the latest surprise 53.4% rise in the Japanese trade surplus shows a 16.1% rise in exports and now US Treasury Secretary Paulson is headed to Beijing again to convince authorities there to increase currency flexibility. With equity markets likely to come under severe selling pressure again, "we emphasize our aggressive USD/JPY sell strategy," the bank said.

Gen dk 09:16 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 09:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
FM gud trades to u all gud ones cheers me too sqrd short basket except aussy any thots there gl gt

USA Zeus 09:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:09 GMT July 25, 2007
Aug contracts of course.

USA Zeus 09:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Sir Sean Purkson Kelly has spoken. Heed to the calling.
Next NN will push the buttons from the control tower.

Maribor 09:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD still "buy on dips" mode.

Lahore FM 09:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:28 GMT July 18, 2007
additional usdchf long 1.2009,will consider closing for loss on day close basis rather than place a stop.
--
closed half at 1.2025 for 116 pips.

--

this is posted by mistake.the position does not exist as it was stopped at 1.1990.

Lahore FM 09:05 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 16:59 GMT July 20, 2007
than Alimin.last long usdchf added 1.2013.stops 1.1990.
--
closed half at 1.2125 for 112 pips.

USA Zeus 09:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Had to buy some gold
677.70

Lahore FM 09:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
long eurnzd at 1.7045,tentative stops 100 pips below.

Lahore FM 09:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:59 GMT July 20, 2007
than Alimin.last long usdchf added 1.2013.stops 1.1990.
--
closed half at 1.2125 for 112 pips.

The Netherlands Purk 08:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
I am sean Kelly again today. Wait untill somebody moves and than outnumber them....
Works great for lotsa pips, and the HAT wont mind. 8870-8840 Ozmond..
Off to former DEM country

Lahore FM 08:54 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
thanx NYAM.

Lahore FM 04:26 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 23:24 GMT July 24, 2007
added short gbpjpy 248.00 with 248.70 mind stop.

--
out of half at 247.42 for 58 pips.

-
closed all at 246.86 for 114 pips.

USA Zeus 08:53 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Very quiet here tonight so it seems. Remember what we discussed.

London NYAM 08:52 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
nice trades FM. Longing the beast for me with eye on 2.0508/12. break and we have usual cable dump. I will hold for an expanding Triangle since the highs with this as wave e. now up or out.

USA Zeus 08:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:48 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 07:56 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 21:09 GMT July 24, 2007
Lahore FM 08:48 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 07:38 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 21:58 GMT July 24, 2007

Great trades there FM! :-)


Gen dk 08:50 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 08:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:56 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 21:09 GMT July 24, 2007
added a third position on usdchf ,long,with a small stop.long 1.2028,stops at 1.2010.

closed 1/3rd at 1.2080 for 52 pips.stops for rest at entry.
--
closed in full at 1.2106 for 78 pips.

Lahore FM 08:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:38 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 21:58 GMT July 24, 2007
added scalp sell gbpusd 2.0613,stops at 30 bid.
--
closed 1/3rd at 2.0583.making the rest a free trade.

-
closed in full at 2.0530 for 83 pips.not bad for a 17 pip stop,eh!

Gen dk 08:44 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 08:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 08:12 GMT, many thanks, GT&GL.

USA Zeus 08:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:18 GMT July 25, 2007
Thx- Yeah the magic delete wand works wonders.
cheers

HK Kevin 08:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:01 GMT, EUR/JPY shows a m/t top in the daily chart since Mar 07.

London NYAM 08:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Looking in the archive I dont get it except he seems to be irritated. I hope Como comes back in any case. Nice trades Zeus.

USA Zeus 08:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
NYAM- He wanted some help after the arduous plea so in Sir Purkson's words "...giving is the word of the day..."

GT :-)

Hong Kong Ahe 08:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 07:51 GMT July 25, 2007 - the correction of Carry trade not yet over. EURJPY is now at key 165.50. They are pretty smart, first to buy Yen of USDYEN and then pause and now sell to EURUSD. The only brave soldier is NZDJPY. Next critical support is 164.24/34 for EURJPY. GLGT.

London NYAM 08:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus what is this obsession with Perrie?

USA Zeus 08:08 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:02 GMT July 25, 2007
Short AUD/USD .8866


Well Perrie Covered @ .8846 for a laser-like +20

Happy Trades!

London NYAM 08:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 120.15 Half position. S/L 119.80

Gen dk 08:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 08:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Great job Perrie! That's a net + 106

Happy Day!

hk ab 08:01 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
collapse of carry? no way, the bugger will show resilience soon.

USA Zeus 08:00 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
covered 1/4 GBP/USD shorts @ 2.0546

Syd 08:00 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY has now shed 50% of its March-June rally and although oversold, its bearish momentum has increased, says Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott. Despite this she favors the rate holding above the 119.80 low for the rest of the day's trade, but says any upticks toward 120.70-121.00 should be used as a selling opportunity for a drop to the weekly trendline support at 119.20. Now at 120.17.

London NYAM 07:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Long GBPUSD 2.0552

Lahore FM 07:56 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:09 GMT July 24, 2007
added a third position on usdchf ,long,with a small stop.long 1.2028,stops at 1.2010.

closed 1/3rd at 1.2080 for 52 pips.stops for rest at entry.

HK Kevin 07:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Closed my short Cable at 2.0577.
Hong Kong Ahe, does carry trades come back today?

madrdid mm 07:42 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Nomura Japan said it may exit the U.S. subprime lending industry after the business lost 31.2 billion yen in the quarter.

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan's largest securities firm, posted a fourfold increase in first- quarter profit as assets under management rose to a record and it made more money trading stocks and bonds.

Net income rose to 76.7 billion yen ($638 million) in the three months ended June 30 from 20.1 billion yen a year earlier, Nomura said in a statement to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The company said it may exit the U.S. subprime lending industry after the business lost 31.2 billion yen in the quarter.

Lahore FM 07:38 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:58 GMT July 24, 2007
added scalp sell gbpusd 2.0613,stops at 30 bid.
--
closed 1/3rd at 2.0583.making the rest a free trade.

Syd 07:37 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD Stalling,Corrective Weakness Likely-RBoS


EUR/USD's inter-month uptrend is stalling beneath the 1.3870 channel top and combined with overbought readings on the weekly and monthly momentum indicators suggest the rate is vulnerable to a bout of corrective weakness, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Now at 1.3796. Slippage toward 1.3755-25 is expected with a more aggressive downside target being 1.3685-60. Topside, the bank sees resistance at 1.3825.

madrdid mm 07:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
I wonder if on the USD$ Index , the eighty is the magic number, ?!?!?!
Could be interesting to watch the USD fall below 80 and we could witness the dawn of a terrific run in gold prices that could take the yellow metal to an all time high in a surprisingly short period of time.

+ With their hands on over $1.2 trillion dollar bills, the Chinese Government must also be watching the USD like hawks having lost probably billion of value in less than a year.

Syd 07:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
The NZD may well be looking for the RBNZ to hike rates by 25 basis points later in the day. But, this may not be a foregone conclusion. "While a rte hike does seem most likely we feel it could be a very close decision, with enough risk of no change to suggest that long NZD positions ahead of the announcement could prove vulnerable," warns Bear Stearns

Lahore FM 07:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
my mistake to put a rigid stop on it.might long again in a while.

Lahore FM 07:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
stopped on usdcad 1.0385 at 50 for minus 35.

Mumbai NS 07:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
FM gud old frd hmmmm touchwood cheers gl gt

hk revdax 07:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:52 //Expect a small bounce of $/CAD.

Lahore FM 07:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
all the makings of a very interesting day on usd.

Patra alex 07:20 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:14 GMT July 25, 2007

I was referring about gold spot sir.

Thanks.

The Netherlands Purk 06:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
As long as the high 16633 is not violated by force bugger can be shorted the censored out.... Also quick 50 pip bounces can be taken at the end of the range.

Syd 06:49 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Intraday EUR/USD: The euro is likely to retrace slightly, and is likely to probe 1.3786, Friday's low. Further support comes in around 1.3748, where Thursday's low was made. Minor resistance still comes in around $1.3853, Tuesday's high.

The Netherlands Purk 06:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Ah, the HAT is trading for Perrie today, hope he will gain from it. Giving is the word today.
Loonie is waiting to be taken up by the flight attendant.

Makassar Alimin 06:21 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
audjpy short position got stopped out although target was met, only left with long usdchf at the moment

i think long usdcad could be tried if there is a quick dive today, same to audusd...anyway as long as they are all moving it is good, certainly not a boring summer :) off for now, see you few hours from now

The Netherlands Purk 06:20 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
This is going to be a nice day and it is already of course with the multiple chances in shorting and longing and and and, so excited...
Dick is doing stuff in thin markets here i guess. Still shorting bugger on rallies. Still shorting e/u on rallies. Cable has the most potention down to 200000000000000, but everybody wants that so keep profit in the pocket please.
Bugger for now: 16633 to beat upside and 16518 for downside. Can be done in a blips.
I guess HK ab is very rich now talking the kiwi up, amazing how that guy earns his money.

USA Zeus 06:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Shake it Perrie!

Covered remaining u/j Laser guided planetary greenhouse carbon missile @ 120.15

Mumbai NS 06:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
LVJ changed entity but wish u gud luck for good old times sake gl gt

USA Zeus 06:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Perrie- covered another 1/4 u/j scalpal @ 120.12

Makassar Alimin 06:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:03 GMT July 25, 2007

whoever they are, they must have some gun power to keep buying aud to the moon

i am still waiting to see if my limit proposed yesterday got hit today

USA Zeus 06:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Well feelin' the mojo Como.

covered remaining e/j laser scalpal @ 165.94

USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Covered another 1/4 e/j @ 166.02 for laser Perrie

USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Covered 1/2 u/j @ 120.15 for laser Perrie

USA Zeus 06:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Covered 1/2 e/j 166.07 for laser Perrie

hk ab 06:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
0.84 easily reach 'cos hike/ no cut news is leaked.

hk ab 06:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, it's just because there's a group of eye-closing buyers from censored who is brainwashed with all carry-tactics like 3x leverage and impossible to see a 30% correction, etc

USA Zeus 06:02 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Short AUD/USD .8866

hk ab 06:00 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
another thing which might help RBNZ is they should cook some poor data for the mkt. It's an easy statiscian job.

see how easy a 100 pips retracment is made?

Makassar Alimin 05:59 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
audusd is playing 'catch me if you can'...such a relentless rally

hk ab 05:52 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
1.0330 dlr/cad is risking for an exhaustive dive to meet m/t target at parity.

hk ab 05:46 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
you see this protocol works extremely well.

hk ab 05:35 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
mkt might be kind enough to give one more test on 80 line, and then, the bouncing will be back.

hk ab 05:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
If this is not done so like that lots of housewives will not vote for Abe.

hk ab 05:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:42 GMT July 24, 2007
if RBNZ wants their intervention work, either show us a 500 pips one or a 1% cut. Otherwise, the effort will fail at the 0.8000 line again for bulls.



The game is like: to prepare stronger yen in the coming months. yen crosses are brought up first, and then, sluggish and down running, togther dlr/jpy strengthen. once some 200-300 pips reached, mkt replay the brought up yen-crosses. In this: even dlr/jpy might have run 1000 pips, the other major also rallies 2000 pips simultaneously, overall, censored is still in advantage.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:29 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JULY 25th:

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hk ab 05:28 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 05:23 GMT July 25, 2007

This because RBNZ is not determined enough.

Now too late, carry resumes and kiwi to 84 and aud to 93.....

dlr/jpy will stablize around 120 'cos of BOJ and PAR.

USA Zeus 05:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Angry bugger- added more e/j @ 166.20

Syd 05:25 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Street Dogs: A housing perspective
“This belief is now at a tipping point. Holiday homes across the country have suddenly become sticky to sell. Prices have fallen in (several) cities …
“Only those owners who hit the exit early will benefit; the rest will lose capital and their already bad cash flow will deteriorate further.”


http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/markets.aspx?ID=BD4A522770

GENEVA DS 05:23 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
for all anti carry traders...

pretty amazing for a morning , where the world should have gone under.... (look comments only in this forum ...) AUD JPY moved from 105.40 to 106.60 bid.... and still rising.... AUD CHF- just made new highs for the year... really not sure overhere, if it is smart to be very anti carry... lets wait and see and have all a wonderful and certainly profitable day... gl

Syd 05:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Base metals, platinum group metals could be hit by further rise in risk aversion, although gold, silver may be safe due to weaker USD, modest long positions, says UBS. Notes UBS Risk Index at highest levels since March 2007, spike mainly triggered by increasing USD/JPY volatility; falling risk appetite has hurt credit markets, USD most, benefited precious metals, left base metals largely untouched, though this could change. "(Any) signs of widening of market concerns could hit pro-growth commodities such as base metals and PGMS." LME 3-month copper down $20 at $7,955/ton as stronger USD pressures in mostly directionless market. Spot gold down $3.65 at $680.75/oz.

USA Zeus 05:17 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Sold U/J 120.30 & e/j 166.15

Syd 05:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan June Trade Surplus Jumps On Strong Exports
Japan's merchandise trade surplus soared in June, far exceeding expectations as a weaker yen helped push exports to the second-highest level on record, government data showed Wednesday.



Lahore FM 04:53 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
short audjpy 106.44,stops at 107.10.target open.

Syd 04:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Alumina Says AUD Biggest Factor In Downgrade
MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Alumina Ltd. (AWC.AU) Chief Executive John Marlay said the strengthening Australian dollar is the single biggest contributor to the profit downgrade announced by the company Wednesday.



USA Zeus 04:33 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Out another 1/4 GBP/USD shorts at 2.0584

USA Zeus 04:32 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Favored trades for today-
yen 2-way flows
gold
oil

Equities- several

Lahore FM 04:26 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:24 GMT July 24, 2007
added short gbpjpy 248.00 with 248.70 mind stop.

--
out of half at 247.42 for 58 pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:14 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:34 GMT - Are you referring Spot Gold or XAU gold stock index?

Wellington, N.Z. 04:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JULY 25th:


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New Brighton gvm 04:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:05 migh be a tad premature there AB - especially prior to housing figures out later today - what makes you so certain the 80 figure has held? Looks to me like its still being tested

hk ab 04:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
mkt has treated this retreat to 80 line a golden chance to go long like they did previously....
sounding carry-trade is back.....

80 line now on hold, next could be 84.

Syd 03:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY Downtrend To Continue - Trader
0355 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY supported by Japan individual investors above 119.50 but break below there remains very possible, says trader at major Japan bank; "momentum is clearly in a downward trend now which is likely to continue for a while." Players will be watching U.S. June existing home sales data at 1400 GMT (tipped down 2%); if data week, heighten fears over subprime mortgage market, could send pair toward 119.50, then 119. EUR/JPY likely to track USD/JPY with no clear support until 164.80;

New Brighton gvm 03:57 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 2:51 straight from Dan Norcini commentary today - r u trying to pass this off as your own commentary?

Syd 03:33 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in June that the RBA could sit on the sidelines if inflation picks up, given the low level of inflation in the last year.

But Huw McKay, senior economist at Westpac, said that core inflation stubbornly near the top of the RBA's target band will make it uneasy.

Tony Pearson, head of economics at Australian & New Zealand Banking Group, said the faster pace of core inflation would ensure the RBA retains a tightening bias, but it will not act on it until after a federal election.

An interest rate hike in August would wound the reelection hopes of Australia's 11-year-old center-right government, which is already floundering in opinion polls ahead of an election expected before year end.

Official interest rates, a political hot button, have been held at 6.25% since November 2006, after being raised eight times since May 2002.

Treasurer Peter Costello told reporters in Melbourne that the inflation spike was consistent with the government's expectations of moderate price gains over the next year.

"I see these results as very much consistent with our inflation target," he told reporters.

geneva 03:19 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
After the JPY! Forgot.

geneva 03:18 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
The US dollar going to be the best safe even for the crises we will see the next weeks or months to come!!!-GL

Syd 03:10 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello plays down policy impact of 2Q CPI data even as some private-sector economists say data raises likelihood of August rate hike. Costello says headline CPI's 2.1% on-year rise is lowest in three years, underlying inflation consistent with target. "Notwithstanding Australia's strong employment position and the strong terms of trade, the consumer price index remains very constrained," he tells reporters. "I see these results as very much consistent with our inflation target." Also says AUD rise has shielded Australia from global price rises.

Ldn 02:51 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
While it is a bit too early to say with certainty, it appears that what we are witnessing today is some unwinding of the massive yen carry trade that has supported the US equity markets for so long.

The yen has reached a level where we would normally expect bargain hunters to come in and offer it down as they make plans for additions to their leveraged trades involving borrowing in yen. If the yen manages to hold on to its gains and closes strong, some of the most highly leveraged investors are going to have problems on that carry trade since the currency loss is going to eat into their profits.

They have a couple of options to minimize losses – they can either simply close out the trades, which we might be seeing as the US equity markets swoon, or they can hedge their currency risk by going long the yen. We might also be seeing some of that. It is difficult to tell at the moment.

Syd 02:39 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Australia Costello: Underlying Inflation Within RBA Band


MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Australian Treasurer Peter Costello Wednesday played down expectations that second-quarter inflation numbers would encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates, saying the numbers are consistent with the country's inflation target.

Costello noted the 2.1% increase in the consumer price index in the second quarter from a year earlier was the lowest on-year rise since March 2004, when the increase was 2.0%.

He also said underlying measures of inflation are within the RBA's target band of 2% to 3%.

"I see these results as very much consistent with our inflation target," he told reporters.

The treasurer was speaking after data showed that the RBA's measures of underlying inflation accelerated in the second quarter from the first quarter.

Sydney 02:22 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
CPI primes RBA to lift rates

THE Reserve Bank is expected raise rates by 0.25 percent at its meeting in two weeks, following a surprisingly large jump in the rate of inflation.

Syd 02:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Australia Costello: Underlying Inflation Within RBA Band



TD Sec: Good Reasons For RBNZ To Pause Thurs

TD Securities believes RBNZ should not raise interest rates tomorrow; senior strategist Joshua Williamson says bank could wait until September review to properly assess activity indicators, economy's response to last 3 hikes. Notes while consensus is for another hike, are good reasons to pause: Recent strong 2Q CPI print mainly driven by petrol prices and RBNZ has said it'll ignore oil-driven price pressures; on-year CPI also within RBNZ's 1-3% target. Thinks financial conditions will become much tighter for mortgagees, and own view is recent business confidence slump likely 1st wave of data pointing to more moderate activity. 10 of 15 economists polled by Dow Jones tip RBNZ to hike 25 bps to 8.25%

hk ab 02:09 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
kiwi bulls now lining up at .800 to wait the food fed to them....

unless kiwi falls 500 pips from .81, they will never die.

Syd 02:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Higher-than-expected Australian 2Q core CPI outcome not enough to hand RBA a trigger for August rate hike, says Tony Pearson, head of economics at ANZ Bank; 0.9% core inflation number is in "no-mans land" for RBA policy makers, though was higher than 0.7% expected. Looming election also good reason to stay sidelined, though case for hike is building with annual core measures stubbornly near top of RBA's 2-3% band; is likely that hike is coming, but not until

Sydney ACC 02:03 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Yield on SFE Bank Bill Contracts up 12 cents across trhe strip.Yield on Sepotember Contract now 6.63%
market factoring in 100% chance of an increase before then, March 08 contract 6.86% so looking for another one before then.

HK [email protected] 01:58 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Those who benefit from the yen rise are likely some big bankers, if we assume that many of those yen were sold on margin to housewives and orphans when yen was at lows.
Yen interest rate given by BOJ is low, so remain only to victimize big time the customers on margin hehe.

USA Zeus 01:48 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:55 GMT July 24, 2007
Was able to add short GBP/USD 2.0652

USA Zeus 02:20 GMT July 24, 2007
Ok- No more longing GBP/USD for now. Time to play top picker and fade. Short 2.0639. Will do my best to add more at a higher price.
____________________________________________________

Ok Covered 1/2 2.0578
Set remaining at b/e

LOL

Syd 01:47 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY could fall further given signs that broad FX position adjustments gaining steam, says Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ senior FX manager Masashi Kurabe. "Technically, it would be no surprise even if the dollar breaks below Y119.50" in Asia, which near May 11 low of 119.47. "There's a sense of uncertainty throughout the markets amid subprime problems," with stock markets unstable; "Under these circumstance the yen is being bought back. That's making yen-sellers feel uncomfortable." Adds, break below 119.50 could pave way for try of 119 mark

HK [email protected] 01:40 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 01:34 GMT July 25, 2007

We can be surprised to see higher prices too, but My computations show some price fatigue in the range between 0.8150 to 0.8170 which may be also the time some action may be taken by the RBNZ.

Syd 01:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY Facing Pullback On Uridashi Maturity
AUD/JPY lower at 106.03 on carry trade unwind overnight. Pair is also vulnerable to a pullback around mid-month as a result of a large A$1 billion uridashi maturing on Aug. 23, say CBA analysts. In week leading up to this bond maturity, may see some selling in AUD/JPY

Philadelphia Caba 01:36 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Australian Q2 RBA Core-CPI Plus 0.9% (0.7% Median)
Australian Q2 CPI Plus 1.2% (1.0% Median)

Philadelphia Caba 01:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 01:24 GMT
re kiwi: we're in 'blue sky' territory now so why 'exactly' 8150 level?

Patra alex 01:34 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:21 GMT July 25, 2007

Thank you sir. Can you give me some targets from your analysis please? Always respected.

HK [email protected] 01:24 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
NZ$. Always must be watched for a bullish comeback to above 0.8150. Thinking about another short a little above this price.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:21 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 01:13 GMT - I am bias on the downside when gold is trading below 687.7.

Patra alex 01:13 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Qindex sir, may I have your views regarding XAU? Thank you very much.

HK [email protected] 01:12 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 07:17 GMT June 18, 2007
Monaco Oil man 04:09 GMT June 18, 2007

If the surge in USD/YEN will top here, a longer term Ret. may go to ~118.5.

A break above 124, one may expect to forget about it, and think more about ~131
..................................................................................

Well, at that time(June 18) 118.50 appeared as a convergence point in some voodoo charting, but this time it coincides with the lower boundary of a bearish wedge on the daily.
So the medium term trader will have to watch for that support line if holds or not.

I wonder if gold(0% interest) has replaced the yen as a substrate for carry trade LOL.

ABHA FXS 01:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Limit order..
Long AUDJPY 105.15 T 108.00

Rye, NY et 01:11 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...According to my charts, the market is approaching a major ascending Trendline at 1.3796. A bounce from here would send it..."to the moon"...All, imvho...GL/GT

Hong Kong Qindex 01:04 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

hk ab 01:01 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR, I thoguht BOJ was on the 120 line.......Now housewives screaming for help from them.

Syd 01:01 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
How High Must It Go?" Asks Winston Peters
Press Release: New Zealand First Party
How High Must It Go?
With the New Zealand Dollar having burst through the 80 cent mark, the pressing question on exporter's minds is - how high will the dollar be allowed to go before the government will do something, says Winston Peters.
"If we are to believe the so-called experts - including a certain currency trader who is now dabbling in politics - then there is no limit to the dollar's growth if the 'invisible hand' of the market is the only force controlling it," said Mr Peters.
"The so-called experts are all pointing to the weaker US dollar and astronomically high interest rates as the reason why our dollar is soaring - but they offer no solutions because they can't. These doyens of economic orthodoxy have such undying faith in the market mechanism that they are prepared sit idly by and watch our economy deteriorate before their eyes.
"How much hurt and how much damage must occur before they realise that the 'invisible hand' is a cruel hoax perpetrated by those who have interests other than New Zealand's at heart, which has failed New Zealand in the past and is doing so again.

"New Zealand First will again seek to have its sensible solution of a rewrite of section 8 of the Reserve Bank Act tabled so that parliament can give the Reserve Bank Governor the tools he needs to start to remedy this situation. We call on parliament to put aside petty politics and embrace the chance to make a real difference," concluded Mr Peters.

Wellington, N.Z. 00:27 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   

Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JULY 25th:


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Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JULY 25th:


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Lahore FM 00:05 GMT July 25, 2007 Reply   
Bay 247.30 area if it is a long at all.i though am playing from short side.only review might come if aud rises post cpi data.

off for now.

 




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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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