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Forex Forum Archive for 07/26/2007

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Philadelphia Caba 23:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Over DowJones. According to the UK government think tank, one more interest rate from the current bank rate of 5.75% (to 6.00%) would be sufficient to bring consumer inflation back under control. According to NIESR economist Barrell however, the MPC may already have raised interest rates too far, noting that the economic model used by the BoE to predict growth may be overestimating how quickly interest rate hikes feed through the economy.

Napoli DC 23:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
tks all

Rye, NY et 23:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Symptoms of Subprime Contagion...
http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/25/loans-subprime-credit-biz-wall-cx_lm_0726credit.html?partner=alerts
(If somebody has the code to post a link, please put it on the HF...TIA)

hk revdax 23:44 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
For my curiosity, do we still send emails to each other through Jay in GVI?

Philadelphia Caba 23:40 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN DATA: From the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications:
- June core CPI -0.1% y/y, down for 5th month in a row
- July core central Tokyo CPI -0.1%y/y vs -0.1% in June

Monaco Oil man 23:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 23:32 GMT July 26, 2007
core CPI -0.1%

--

There's also a chart on GVI.

Syd 23:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Jul Core CPI -0.1% On Year; Mkt Expected -0.1%

Napoli DC 23:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
data, please?

Monaco Oil man 23:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Amsterdam Kaprikorn 23:10 GMT July 26, 2007


Livingston was using a cat and the little ones to define that..
It's a safebet to say crosses do move more than majors due to their liquidity and efficiency , apart from that your guess is as good as mine.

GT

Amsterdam Kaprikorn 23:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 21:50 GMT //

Greetings,
maybe it's not a smart question but I always thought how can one gauge in a given moment which trade (majors or crosses) will give better return?

Does it have to do with Volatility which you measure with the prop DX?

Wellington, N.Z. 23:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 27th:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 23:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC any view on the next aud move ?

dc CB 23:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 21:17 GMT July 26, 2007
but otherwise break pf 11800 in $Yen looking good.

rejected 11803? ...my platform.

Monaco Oil man 22:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
u can't start winning in forex till you start learning how to lose.
With CB's (as posted on GVI) , and The Number of YEN CALLS which has increased and paid the current downside : Housewifes could be back fully loaded into the next days ready to go back to filling the basket +with the help of the CB's protecting us against "sharp moves".
It could be an interesting friday (particularly with the "bargain" prices on EY , NZDJPY , GBPJPY ,CADJPY and even $/Y)..

GT.


nj jf 22:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
bay- take a trial of gvi we discuss yen things alot more on that side.

USA BAY 22:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
nj jf

thanks jf, if you do have the time please post your views on gbp/jpy. tia

london cg 22:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY should rebound somewhere, maybe tonight with a low inflation number in Japan or sunday election?

nj jf 21:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gbpyen I cant speak for as I havent looked at the trading ranges - purely euryen at this point.

nj jf 21:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
friday we always see 150 pips euryen range so given what we have seen looks 161.80/163.30

i would think tokyo has one squeeze in it but you have to be careful today I tried to long and had to cut as you saw how aggressive the mkt is when it wants to sell.

overall 164.10/169.10 .... 164.10 broken can run all the way to 160 until 164.10 is regained.

goodluck and be nimble

Monaco Oil man 21:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

I don't have ANY US$ longs , just playing the crosses(GBP/CAD , AUD/CAD , AUD/NZD etc)..

An important close tomorrow as it's monthly close..
Should therefore see some nice move tomorrow , at London FIX and NY trading session, particularly with a monthly close under 1.3730 or above 1.38 looming..

August is often a slow month with range, Traders get into range , and september starts trending and everyone is on the wrong foot, and the trend accelerates....
Anyways a close tom under 1.3700 and we have a month of range heading towards 1.35 , then september ...And trend starts yet again.

GT.


SF Jurin 21:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
A very good question

USA BAY 21:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
nj jf.

Do you think the unwind for e/j and gbp/jpy is over or more to come. tia

nj jf 21:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
zeus ....did you post entry levels for these trades ?

Syd 21:44 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
should see a bounce first thing in Asia trade from these levels any views

USA Zeus 21:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Black swans are swimming?

Halifax CB 21:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Will FX become the next dot.com/sub-prime theater of the absurd? Or will the NA house-husband/soccer-mom follow his or her Japanese cousins? I found it a rather scary article (it's called "Hedge your retirement with currencies" ). Big problem is down the road, when this blows up and everyone starts blaming under-regulation....

USA Zeus 21:35 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Covered another 1/4 core e/j from 166.20 @ 162.26 for a fast 394 piptitos.

LOL

Hong Kong WT 21:33 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Purk

Toronto MRC 21:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
At some point the fx market is going to realize carry unwind or equity crisis will eventually lead to big Ben dumping money from a helicopter.

USA Zeus 21:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 21:19 GMT July 26, 2007

Nice trade there oily. Just covered 1/2 core AUD/USD shorts from .8866 @ .8680

UK Alex 21:26 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 21:12 GMT July 26, 2007
It all depends on valuations - are future earnings predictions too optimistic and are stocks trading at too much of a premium because of M&A hype. If the IMF have got it right, then I guess it's onwards and upwards.

dc CB 21:22 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
AP
Countrywide CEO Exercises Options
Thursday July 26, 3:26 pm ET
Countrywide Financial Chairman and CEO Angelo R. Mozilo Exercises Options for 46,000 Shares

NEW YORK (AP) -- The chairman and chief executive of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. exercised options for 46,000 shares of common stock under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Wednesday Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Angelo R. Mozilo reported he exercised the options Wednesday for $10.89 and $14.69 apiece and then sold all 46,000 of the shares on the same day for $30.52 apiece.

The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material non-public information.

Monaco Oil man 21:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

Monaco Oil man 22:04 GMT July 24, 2007
........"
Meanwhile NZD should start feeling gravity , and fast if $/Y does break under 119.70..Exploitable moves on its crosses (AUDNZD, GBPNZD and so forth).."

Good trades.


Bingo , nice NZD run!

GTs

dc CB 21:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
When Washington get back from it's August Vacation...like in September....if nothing blows up in the interim...there may be a Consitutional Crisis.

but otherwise break pf 11800 in $Yen looking good.

dc CB 21:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 21:03 GMT July 26, 2007

amazon, Bidu think it's true?

Lahore FM 21:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
119.20 long stopped at 118.80 for 40 pips.

244.09 long gbpjpy stopped at 243.30 for loss of 27 pips with partial close at 244.61.

out till laterz.

ABHA FXS 21:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 19:27 GMT July 24, 2007
Short CADCHF 1.1613 T 1.1413/// +200 pips

ABHA FXS 19:07 GMT July 24, 2007
Short NZDJPY 97.24 Target 95.81/// +143 pips

UK Alex 21:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 21:01 GMT July 26, 2007
Possibly, you'll have to ask him. LOL

UK Alex 21:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Jeremy Grantham, the respected founder of GMO, a large fund manager, goes so far as to liken the stock market to a dinosaur. “As yet the equity market seems totally unaffected, with volatile and risky stocks still making the running. Although the brontosaurus has been bitten on the tail, the message has not yet reached its tiny brain, but is proceeding up the long backbone, one vertebra at a time.”

Bodrum OEE 21:01 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

Correction with apologies

Bodrum OEE 20:29 GMT July 26, 2007
UK Alex 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007

if

PAR(IS) is no longer the housewives' favourite, at least not in Japan

they should know

How about Madrid? Still fashionable?

dc CB 20:59 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
in case this has passed by. The Senate Judiciary Committee has requested the appointment of a Special Cousel to investigate whether Attny Gen. Alberto Gonsalez committed perjury in his sworn testimony before the Committee this past tuesday.

dc CB 20:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The State of the Slump

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118540759669178277.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

Wellington, N.Z. 20:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 27th:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Toronto MRC 20:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 20:09 GMT July 26, 2007
Toronto MRC 20:02 GMT July 26, 2007
So much for "stealth" cover of the carry.

In fixed income markets but not in higher risk assets.

Bodrum OEE 20:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007
PAR(IS) is no longer the housewives' favourite, at least not in Japan.

They should know

How about Madrid? Still fashionable?

dc CB 20:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Friday is EOM (end of Month) minus 2. The question that every fund manager (hedge and mutual) tonight is: Do I want to be owning stocks or selling stocks into the turn...which action will show that I am smarter and deserving of more of Your Money.

The Netherlands Purk 20:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
e/j numbers i forgot: 16255-16218-16175-16099.
Upside: there is 16545 only, and that is a long way it seems, but can be seen by a blip.

UK Alex 20:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Senate Finance Committee Thursday approved legislation that would strengthen penalties for U.S. trading partners with misaligned currencies.

With a 20-1 vote, the committee reported the bill favorably to the Senate floor for approval. Of the senators present, only Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., voted against the bill.

Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said the legislation is a bipartisan compromise that will be effective in pushing China to reform its currency regime in a way that is consistent with international trade rules.

"Some say this bill is too harsh and accuse us of China-bashing," Baucus said. "Others see this bill as too weak and believe we've given the administration too much discretion; I think we have struck the appropriate balance."

The bill, introduced with support from vocal China critics Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., would require the Treasury Department to continue reporting twice yearly to Congress on the state of international foreign exchange markets. The Treasury would identify "fundamentally misaligned currencies" and once it designates a currency as misaligned, the department would impose a series of penalties, including International Monetary Fund consultations, a ban on government procurement from the country and opposition to funding for the country in question from the World Bank and regional development banks.

The Netherlands Purk 20:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Right here it is:

Loonie: if we keep above 10439 per clog closing for me it stays long.
On the other side i am looking for that "visiting the lows one more time to let Dick has his fun". If that is the case a lot of casualties on the way.
Upside: 10555 first, than 10595. Than 10645.

Bugger: back to 27-2-2007. It fell from 15924 to 15074 in 5 days.... Than straight back to 159 and over it...
Let us see if this tick tick tick to the low thing can cause a 300 pip move down and a 400 pip up....
But do not forget to watch the market in any case. Range can be 40 tomorrow as good as 400...

dc CB 20:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Geometrically (Gannwise) speaking, the SPU will close above the 2x1 lines... 1) rising from the March low, 2) decending from the June 26 (27 overnight) low.

1484-85 up..........1473.74 down.

Rabbit's ears are just above the rim of the hat.

USA Zeus 20:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Well we will see massive market action by Fri close. (wo)man your battlestations.

USA Zeus 20:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Well JP That decoupling in the fin'l mkts seems to be the ticket as we previously discussed. Glad we decided to postpone blue marlin fishing in Maui for a bit.
Cheers!

dc CB 20:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 20:02 GMT July 26, 2007
So much for "stealth" cover of the carry.

I propose the covering has been going on since the Feb/Mar sell off in Stox...the same goes for Stox....Too bad the guys at Blackstone and Cerberus didn't get the note...who did they pi$$ off> :)

USA Zeus 20:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
NYSE volume 5.75 billion shs

Toronto MRC 20:02 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
So much for "stealth" cover of the carry. lol Depending on the sse 225 we may find a base tonight. No reason to shoot yourself in the head just to see if the gun is loaded. The big players can handle these types of moves but need a gradual cover to close out carry and my be forced to manufacture that environment.

USA Zeus 19:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Let's watch the market on close orders rip.

USA Zeus 19:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Man on Reuters box all excited about a "rally" because Dow is off only 285.
LOL

dc CB 19:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HSBC braces for $9 billion in mortgage price hikes

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070726/usa_subprime_hsbc.html?.v=1

dc CB 19:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
From Goldmans' man in the Oval:

Paulson says what is happening in markets now is "risk being repriced" - Reuters
Says there has been tendency towards laxity, sees current market events as wake-up call.

"we have had a very major correction in housing," while subprime issues "will be largely contained," they will take time to "work out" but they are ultimately not a threat. He notes the global economy is strong & that markets "ultimately work."

Hong Kong Ahe 19:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
After the IMM close, another new wave is started. GLGT.

USA Zeus 19:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Covered another 1/4 core e/j from 166.20 @ 163.20 for a fast 3 figure crush.

hk ab 19:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Fri should be a day of rest.
So, many positions may exit and reenter next week.

USA Zeus 19:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
See 10 yr notes at 4.77('s)%

dc CB 19:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
it's tme for rabbits and hats

USA Zeus 19:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
I see 4.75 billion shs on NYSE right here.

Makassar Alimin 19:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
cant see usdjpy bounce from here, should go lower..first bounce probably from around low 118

madrid mm 19:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The number of shares changing hands also increased, another sign of volatility. Some 1.88 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange as of 2:34 p.m., 84 percent more than the same time a week ago. In the U.K., the London Stock Exchange said 798,800 trades were made today, the most ever at the bourse.
bloomberg

UK Alex 19:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Oil prices must be biting into the profits of airlines.

HK Kevin 19:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Covered 1/3 short EUR/JPY from 163.80 at 163.02

USA Zeus 19:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Alcoa Aluminum is down. Wonder if Airbus had to cancel the A380.

LOL

USA Zeus 19:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Perrie- Covered some e/j @ 163.00 from the top for the swing position.

USA Zeus 19:01 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Think the equity market sword will swing both ways for a clean cut.

madrid mm 18:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
I think the KIWI today is a gr8 example of a pair with dried up liquidity...
.78 hee we come...
8+-)

hk ab 18:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
alex, lots of them on nzd....
It makes me to recall the crazy down spike on daily chart in dlr/jpy 2002 March.....

similar one now on a/j and n/j.

BUT theoretically, today low will deserve fast bound due to oversold condition....

madrid mm 18:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 18:51 GMT July 26, 2007

Simply put , because the market doen't think it should.

HK Kevin 18:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Don't take profit, let it run....

hk ab 18:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, there will be talking from BOJ sans and we can wait for the blip....

Makassar Alimin 18:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, shorting usdjpy now all the way to 115?

Pecs Andras 18:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Guys
How come that GBP is not hurt by this yen strength like the other major carries, AUD and NDZ?

UK Alex 18:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
See the Kiwi has caught up now.

hk ab 18:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gravity....

dc CB 18:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007
would like to see where the hot money will go.

got that right. it's got to go somewhere to make that "yield" .

But it does seem that all those shorts on the NYSE were right. Now that they are on the right side, wonder how long they'll push it.

madrid mm 18:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
we should all be thankful for days like this one as traders
8+-)

USA Zeus 18:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:45 GMT July 11, 2007
In for a great trading summer as the bucking bronco earnings season gets under way and the decoupling and recoupling of the financial markets marches on.



LOL

hk ab 18:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
mkt in v. nervous mode.
aud/jpy trying to bottom out.

USA Zeus 18:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007
ab- Check the treasuries for flight patterns.

HK Kevin 18:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Aussie under 8710 will test 8500 level

UK Alex 18:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The bottom is probably in on the Dow for today, if its fall is comparable to the FTSE.

USA Zeus 18:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007
Guess the EWers are in deep doo doo.
LOL

hk ab 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
would like to see where the hot money will go.
HK stocks were so resilient due to the "always" rumour of chinese fund flooding....
let's watch the show.

dc CB 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Today's action in the SnP proves that the previous technical reading that the rally above 1560 was a breakout that was the beginning a a W5...from a multi week W4 is wrong.

What we seem to have instead is a Expanding Triangle top....translation....Stox be in deep do do.

UK Alex 18:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR is no longer the housewives' favourite, at least not in Japan.

USA Zeus 18:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 off 50
DOW off 400
LOL

hk ab 18:26 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
If we see 116.x tonight, this diving magnitude will be similar to the one we had in 2002.....

Makassar Alimin 18:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
wonder where is PAR now, BOJ to the rescue? :)
after c9s in hk got whacked a while ago, this time censored housewives will take their turn

USA Zeus 18:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SP 500 futures off 47.
Dow off 388

hk ab 18:24 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
lots of housewives need to see their bankers tomorrow.....i guess.

HK Kevin 18:22 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK RF, you are great. 118.50 for USD/JPY now

hk ab 18:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
aud/jpy still has not much signs of life....

hk ab 18:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, real horrible stuff could be gold..... no eye see.

USA Zeus 18:14 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sorry- almost forgot-
Happy Day!

Hong Kong Ahe 18:14 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:07 GMT - That is very funny. They borrow Yen and go to buy everything in the world that is more investable than Yen facial (not paper) value.

USA Zeus 18:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:06 GMT July 26, 2007

142.80- Made 4 sticks.
LOL

Did someone say "duck"? Must be all out of luck.
We scratch he sniffs.

dc CB 18:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SPU initailly bounced off a 2x1 Gann line drawn off the March lows, 1484.50. It has since been tested and breached.

HK Kevin 18:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY 300 pips a day, terrible

St. Annaland Bob 18:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
anyone to bet with me???

GCM is about to return with his I knew it all approach ... I put two rubber chickens and one rubber duck as stake ;)

I love you too Martin

dc CB 18:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
it's also interesting that the UnWind is also hitting the grain markets...even wheat, which fundamentally should be limit up.

all those index funds that have entered the grain markets...wonder where they get(borrow) all that cash?

HK Kevin 18:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UAD/CAD starts marching to 1.06, long at 1.0514 earlier

USA Zeus 18:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:32 GMT July 26, 2007
Wonder if AAPL can remain this lofty from a little widget in this market. Me no think so. 146.80 now. Let's see.....


143.80


LOL

UK Alex 18:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Has Nomura dumped its subslime yet?

USA Zeus 17:59 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SP contracts off 40 now
LOL

dc CB 17:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
no one's buying lottery tickets today.

mid day wrap brief.com: M&A Rumor Review: Takeover chatter has been virtually non-existent today, not surprising as concerns around a tightening credit mkt are leading many to believe that the record pace of LBO activity has hit its cyclical peak...

prague mark 17:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY will close this week above 120 and we will say "carry trades are reniewed" - LOL

Hong Kong Ahe 17:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:31 GMT - ab, as Shanghai bc once posted Gold will be around 1000 within ten years (I remembered he said was around 2000) - it implies around 2010. The characteristic of BOJ rising interest is extremely slow like a Koala up the tree twig. They will not raise it once a month or once per quarter like other banks in the world so that they are able to stick to the zero-interest rate policy and control USDJPY in a narrow non-tradable bandwidth.

Carry trade will continue for a longer time and it is unavoidable and was made and pushed by MOF/BOJ.

dc CB 17:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Two Wash Post stories, 1 front page, 2nd front page Business Section.

Easy Money, Lifeblood Of Economy, Is Drying Up

spacer
Home Sales on a 'Staircase to the Basement"

UK Alex 17:36 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wells Fargo & Co.'s (WFC : Wells Fargo & Company) Wells Fargo Home Mortgage said Thursday it will close its nonprime wholesale lending business, which processes and funds subprime loans for third-party mortgage brokers. In 2006, the business represented 1.6% of Wells Fargo's total residential mortgage loan volume of $397.6 billion. "Wells Fargo will continue to offer nonprime loans in channels where the company has direct relationships with consumers" said Cara Heiden, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage division president, in a statement. Heiden added that "the decision to close our nonprime wholesale lending business has no effect on Wells Fargo's robust prime lending business." As part of the move, Wells Fargo will close its nonprime wholesale operations in Baton Rouge, La., and Des Moines, Iowa. In Baton Rouge, 170 positions will be affected, while in Des Moines, 67 employees will be affected. Shares of San Francisco-based Wells Fargo fell 58 cents to $33.99 in Thursday afternoon trade.

hk ab 17:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Ahe//thanks for these historical info. So, does it mean if carry chooses to do long term (or at least a proper huge m/t reverse) gold will follow down? TIA.

USA BAY 17:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex,

Dr Q,

Based on your website"

"On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is trading below [248.04] and downside targeting points are 243.10 and 245.38."

What do you think the possibility of the pair reaching 241.xx in this round of carry unwind or do you thing 243.10 should hold before a move higher. tia

Hong Kong Ahe 17:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:49 GMT July 26, 2007
If yen now controls everything, can someone remember where was gold when carry starts? was it 400? --
Hi ab, Carry Trade has been started in early 1990 when Japanese Interest rate were as low as zero. The bubble once bursted after half a year when Japan first increased the Interest rate. The second trend of Carry Trade was started around Aug-Oct 2000. You can overlap all daily charts of AUDJPY, NZDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY. They are all keep on a strong trend of rising from bottom of Oct2000 to July 2007 without much correction. The Gold has a similar uptick but a bit later to catch up after Oct2000. At that month Gold was still at its bottom of 260/270 and kept its uprising trend to current level of 662 (Top 730).

As I recalled "Try to retrieve Shanghai bc posting of 2000". As I remembered we have discussed at that period BOJ ought to do something to hedge the Yen. The Japanese decided to sell Yen of EURJPY to hedge the pressure from US to strength the USDYEN by decreasing the Trade Surplus Gap. Shanghai bc also once said that Gold would kept rise to the top of sky. Of course at that time, I could not imagine it would go to 730.

hk ab 17:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
RF//I saw 650 200 dma and 640, 250 dma.
anyway, just want to pick a good level to long with manageable stop.
Unless the unwinding continue till dec, am expecting PMs could start a rally from Sept.

USA BAY 17:16 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Dr Q

The Netherlands Purk 17:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bugger: 50 pips bounce from the low now. Lets see if there is a return for the ticky tick tick to the low.

HK Kevin 17:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, switch to short E/Y at 163.80 earlier.

HK [email protected] 17:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:58 GMT July 26, 2007

Telling the time is not easy, but to get an idea just observe the gold chart for the last few month(on the weekly). And dont forget to draw the 65Wkly SMA (currently at 640) which practically was not breached since 2002 . So if 630 my target will hit hmmm not vert pleasant. See that the 65Wkly SMA is now in coincidence with a significant support line which if breaced will give you an idea where prices may go.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:06 GMT - You can use the monthly cycle charts for reference. It is freely available in my website.

USA BAY 17:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q,

Could you kindly post your analysis for gbp/jpy please. Tia

Hong Kong Qindex 17:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : I am expecting the market may take a rest today around 118.65 - 118.68.

Gen dk 17:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 16:58 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
RF//mind to tell the time frame for that 600 target?

USA Zeus 16:58 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Housing is job driven. Seasonals are huge. Sales slump after summer thru the beginning of new year.

HK Kevin 16:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:37 GMT, I am taking a bath and miss the price.

manchester steve 16:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
short eur/chf 16555

NYCNYCNYC NY 16:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Housing is credit driven. Decades of build up, easier and easier terms, doesn't stop because of some seasonal. 3 home people will go to 2, the marginal sale sold to whom at what price? My guess is quality, not over inflated stuff loses 60%.
Apts on Park AVe were free in 1934 if you could just make the maintainence fee.

Bandung AS 16:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
watch for NZD trade balance, NZD currency now is too high, not a good condition for exporter. maybe it will be worse...

HK [email protected] 16:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:49 GMT July 26, 2007

For the time being I got already a certain view for gold below 600. More than that have to wait.
Too low for gold hmmm remember China has lot of cash and strong yen makes gold cheap in japan too.

USA Zeus 16:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:39 GMT July 26, 2007

Could be wrong but have many factors as to why such bias. Will try to share on Futures forum when time permits.

cheers!

NYC YIPPEE 16:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FWIW Taking back AUDJPY short here at 104.50.

USA Zeus 16:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Am probably wrong but I have a growing feeling that buying gold on dips is the low risk opportunity.

USA Zeus 16:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:32 GMT July 26, 2007

144.80
LOL

hk ab 16:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
If yen now controls everything, can someone remember where was gold when carry starts? was it 400?

NY tim 16:48 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
do we have KAMPO?

London NYAM 16:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a USDJPY stop loss kicking into the GBP and EUR as the crosses are more or less tranquil.

Lahore FM 16:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.2036,mind stops at 1.2008.

Gen dk 16:40 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 16:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:07 GMT July 26, 2007
But, the public will be misled as the bottom of the housing market will take place in coming months on the seasonals.

Just don't know if that is right or not but if the bottom occurrs when you suggest the scale of the fall may be larger than one would expect.

I posted the mortgage reschedule estimates and their sizes on a monthly basis on the blog. fyi

Lahore FM 16:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
new albany m 16:34 GMT July 26, 2007
thanx.

hk ab 16:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//your 1.3770 is magical.

USA Zeus 16:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 16:27 GMT July 26, 2007

Think when she checks her co's share price on her Blackberry she'll abandon her cabana.
LOL

new albany m 16:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
great trading Lahore !

Lahore FM 16:33 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
short 2.0555,no stops.

USA Zeus 16:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Wonder if AAPL can remain this lofty from a little widget in this market. Me no think so. 146.80 now. Let's see.....

Gen dk 16:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
closed eurusd long 1.3708 from yesterday at 1.3764 for 56 pips.

Lahore FM 16:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:28 GMT July 26, 2007
shorted 2.0518 with 40 bid scalp stop.
-

lolz....... that was fast.took a hit of 26.

USA Zeus 16:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
There. Now let's see the majors pull us along.

Gen dk 16:28 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 16:28 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
shorted 2.0518 with 40 bid scalp stop.

Lahore FM 16:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
sc it is from charts only

NYC jr 16:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
A guy here just goes "they might have to get Abbey Jo-Co off the beach" haha

Lahore FM 16:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
closed all of 2.0434 long at 2.0520 for 86 pips.

london sc 16:23 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM, whats your target and whats the thinking behind the trade with RBNZ unlikely to hike further

Lahore FM 16:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
long 94.20 on ndjpy no stops just now.

hk ab 16:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
RF//appreciated your sharing. I have no guts to jump in either the long or short side now. watching the show.

HK [email protected] 16:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:08 GMT July 26, 2007
Definitely I did not expect 630 yesterday LOL. Same when I pointed to 668 which was already achieved.
Day traders will not always look at the medium trend.

But if one bought gold at 672 yesterday for the rebound to 676 ok. If he is still hoping for a reversal he may be in trouble now. That what I mean.

Lahore FM 16:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
friends there is nothing in gold price action that suggests a rise off the lows though seeing is believing so we shall see how it trades from 662 now with low on 660 already printed.

USA Zeus 16:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
BTW- liquidated several on the pop higher. Zeus is always massaging positions.

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:04 GMT July 26, 2007

Only 99 contracts from 661-656 traded of which many were mine.
LOL

hk ab 16:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
RF//last time, just kidding, when you call for 630, the gold quickly rebounds....

Do you expect that in several days?

NYCNYCNYC NY 16:08 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
CBT E vs COMEX,
COMEX floor steals constantly but CBT occasionally their is some rout.
Even that is positive if you have resting orders, but for those who use stops, its treacherous.

HK Kevin 16:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Just tiny sell Kiwi at 7911. See what happen tomorrow

USA Zeus 16:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Listening to the squaker on tv you'd think there was some kind of bad news in the US about housing and mortgages.
Guess nothing else to talk about. Been baking that cake on the street since Feb. CDO tranches to be finished in adjusting soon. The media will think it is all breaking news for next several months. But, the public will be misled as the bottom of the housing market will take place in coming months on the seasonals.

HK Kevin 16:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Time is mature if RBNZ wants to intervene tomorrow's morning.

bbsapul 16:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ok fm,

closed all the short .. now flat..
thinking of long gbp/jpy when got the chance

UK Alex 16:04 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:00 GMT July 26, 2007
Either that or a big program trade kicked in when that stop level got triggered.

Lahore FM 16:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul it is fm not lahore-did you close audusd in part or not?

gbpjpy long target is 245.40 or maybe higher.

USA Zeus 16:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Gold- Obvious to me looking at the CBOT executions is that some idiot hit a market sell order that filled on my bids then it snapped back

Bodrum OEE 16:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:46 GMT July 26, 2007

A better doctrine compared to communism perhaps? All my best Alex. I must leave now. Thank you and good day.

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
closed half of 2.0434 long at 2.0490.

bbsapul 15:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
lahore:

whats your target for gbp/jpy long?

Thanks

Gen dk 15:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 15:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Market movement indicates we may need to chase the NZD to sell

UK Alex 15:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FTSE-100 -2.9% AT CLOSE.

HK [email protected] 15:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Those losing in the Dow may be taking now part in the gold liquidation, so the 630 target I mentiones Y.day may not be far.
Below that need more computations.

Lahore FM 15:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
NYCNYCNYC ny 15:38 GMT July 26, 2007
lahore -CBT E trade hit 656

--
yes i am speaking of spot.have 660 low so far.have still one more short to unload.

UK Alex 15:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 15:39 GMT July 26, 2007
True, but if the world population continues to expand at the present rate then even the first part of that statement will be unachievable.

NYCNYCNYC NY 15:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
97 was it when Tiger lost 2billion covering yen carry trades.
pressure is building.

london sc 15:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
why is eur/gbp not pushing up on gbp weakness?

hk ab 15:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Raden, seems the massive clean up rather than the sharp return....

Bodrum OEE 15:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex

This is the real risk:

There is enough in the world for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed.

Franklin N.D. Buchman (1878 1961), Christian evangelist


dc CB 15:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:27 GMT July 26, 2007
dc CB 15:23 GMT July 26, 2007

yes, just reporting what's rolling by on the wires now. pointing to the fears that are tanking stox. I'm a tad late as that one hit at 11:03.

anyway by by usd/jpy, or for me, HELLO JYU.

Lahore FM 15:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
closed all of 672.75 short at 664.00 for 8.75 dolls.

USA Zeus 15:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Buy stops triggered on gold from 660-657

NYCNYCNYC ny 15:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
lahore -CBT E trade hit 656

HK [email protected] 15:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 15:32 GMT July 26, 2007

You may be right, and if you are right it is still a very nice return for savers. A more daring computation shows a target for USD/Yen at 103. In this kind of wild mkt. who knows.

Cali mmm 15:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. Also long on GBPJPY ? What is your target on that one?

NYCNYCNYC Ny 15:35 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gold yen ? excessive leverage in HFs is at rsi kof being unwound. HFs, INDEX Funds are long. If teh big trends of teh last few yrs unwind, it will spread.

as the Yen has risen recently, Gc and SI have fallen.

Lahore FM 15:33 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
655 looking more likely on gold from 667 now.

Van jv 15:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:37 Lahore FM 14:25 GMT July 26, 2007

USD/YEN

105-106 see possibly in about 2 Years , fundamentals - rising inflation

UK Alex 15:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:23 GMT July 26, 2007
The banks are already taking losses on these deals.

Lahore FM 15:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 15:20 GMT July 26, 2007
--
yes for 2.0490/0520.

hk ab 15:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Raden, dont' you think dlr/jpy will hinder any gold rocket upside?

dc CB 15:23 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
snippet from briefing.com.

.....the Mar lows in the stock mkt were made on fears that subprime mortgage woes were spilling over into the broader lending industry. Although the S&P 500 is up 9.8% from those Mar lows, it has sold off ~3.7% from last week's highs, largely on what could be summarized as an intensification of credit concerns. The fear now is that tighter credit mkts (due to higher risk aversion after losses in subprime related issues) could slow down the pace of the private equity deals that have added support to the market (as well as added to profits of major financial institutions). The belief that subprime issues were largely contained seems to be unraveling a bit.....

hk ab 15:23 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gold move making e/j lots more downside.

dc CB 15:21 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
11:08 Trading collars are now in effect at the NYSE

UK Alex 15:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
What we are witnessing is an orderly unwinding of positions by banks who are in big trouble. LOL

Cali mmm 15:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM, are you still long GBPUSD? Any target? TKS.

hk ab 15:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
an easy to analyze yen and yen crosses is your 5 dma in daily chart.

madrid mm 15:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:13 GMT July 26, 2007

maybe, and so far...But are they telling the truth ?!?!?!? The whole truth and nothing but the truth ?

So are our acquaintances in Japan and Paulson and co. still watching closely FX moves ? Sweaty hands and faster heartbeat for some, grin faces for others I guess.

madrid mm 15:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
119sh in sight , would it old today ? !?!?!? 8+-)

PAR 15:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Losses at WestLB around € 250 million. No big deal compared to Us hedge funds .

Bodrum OEE 15:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

Hello to you both and hope all is well.

UK Alex 14:54 GMT July 26, 2007

Liquidity is the end-result.

Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 26, 2007

It is about 17 % overvalued

Bodrum OEE 04:51 GMT April 26, 2007
Bodrum OEE 19:19 GMT July 11, 2007

HK [email protected] 15:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:51 GMT July 26, 2007
RF//Can you elaborate a little bit more?

Structures on charts maybe in the eyes of the beholder, but if you can spot a rising wedge on the daily, you may compute an estimated target.

Hong Kong WT 15:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:49 GMT July 26, 2007
I will do some calculating later this evening in bugger and loonie. For now loonie that 10439 has to hold as base.

Small fish is awaiting your calculation result.
I had top picking loonie. Arear 10pips

Thank you

hk ab 15:01 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone experience enough to recall what happened on gold during the killing dive of dlr/jpy from 147 to 116?

UK Alex 14:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:48 GMT July 26, 2007
PAR is pulling our collective legs as usual. The real risk is contagion in the credit markets and the housing recession spilling over into the rest of the economy.

Como Perrie 14:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Canadian Oil Sands Trust would remain good investment as stock: analyst

Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum for you.
ISTANBUL, Turkey (Nikkei)--Investment money raised in Japan at ultralow interest rates is streaming into Turkey, where the overnight call rate is as high as 17.5%.

An investment of yen here a year ago would yield a profit of nearly 45% now on a 27% gain by the Turkish lira against the yen and 17.5% interest, said Tevfik Aksoy, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Turkey.

Hedge funds from around the world are trading in the Turkish currency with money borrowed in Japan, said Nurhan Toguc of Turkey-based Ata Invest Inc. The lira's recent rally has also fueled the boom.

The lira/yen carry trade began around 2004, and has grown significantly since last year due to a crisis at Turkey's central bank. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country's pro-Islamic prime minister, recommended that the president of an Islamic bank be named the new governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, a secular politician, rejected the appointment in part because the candidate was from an Islamic bank, which is forbidden to pay or charge interest under religious law.

As a result, the central bank temporarily lacked a governor and the Turkish currency plunged, causing the overnight rate to surge to 17.5% from 14-15%.

One of the reasons why Turkey keeps interest rates so high is to prevent a recurrence of the hyperinflation triggered by the 2001 economic crisis. CBRT Governor Durmus Yilmaz said his most important task is to maintain price stability.

A reversal of the yen-carry trade could cause the Turkish lira to plummet, however, sparking inflation and generating a negative cycle of a weakening currency and rising prices, possibilities that recently prompted Yilmaz to announce that the central bank may gradually lower short-term interest rates starting from the October-December quarter.


-- Translated from an article written by Nikkei staff writer Ken Moriyasu


(The Nikkei Financial Daily Thursday edition)

hk ab 14:51 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
RF//Can you elaborate a little bit more?

The Netherlands Purk 14:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
I will do some calculating later this evening in bugger and loonie. For now loonie that 10439 has to hold as base.

Bodrum OEE 14:48 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Government of Japan proudly presents pop stars (in par): Bank of Japan and Kampo

A bank can be in trouble in Turkey (no such news), here and there and everywhere.

This is not about it .

The subprime is a fraction among other instruments that are part of history's largest ever recorded liquidity expansion.

The size is the uncertainity.

So are victim identities.

HK Kevin 14:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:37 GMT, USD/JPY 105-106, typo or correct?

HK [email protected] 14:40 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:30 GMT July 26, 2007

If housewives will be loosing money ,they can retreat to the kitchen and order their husbands to get some more money for them, I am afraid to say we are facing some bigger institutional financial problems.

Van jv 14:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
last two corrections went to 115 zone --H wives waiting to buy 115-117?

HK [email protected] 14:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
.
Lahore FM 14:25 GMT July 26, 2007

USD/YEN
Before looking at huge yearly structures I compute my target for my daily bearish formation, that points to the range
105-106 . Now we have to wait for some fundamentals releases to see what is driving the markets.

hk ab 14:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
housewives pressure making dlr/jpy 119.5 like a wall.

hk ab 14:28 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
be careful, sentiment in oil on gvi seems to be 1 way looking for >80......

time for reversal?

hk ab 14:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR//do you agree that BOJ has given up and now the only game is to sell dlr/jpy to the target point?

Lahore FM 14:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:19 GMT July 26, 2007
HK Kevin 14:04 GMT July 26, 2007
---
my two cents look for 114.50/115.50 as the extreme downside for usdjpy if pressure persists before monthlies kick in for rise to 130 and 135.

hk ab 14:23 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
119.50 act like a wall.

HK [email protected] 14:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:04 GMT July 26, 2007

A simple answer is given to you by: London NYAM 14:06 GMT July 26, 2007

So if you are in a position to hold like the banks do, just compute the target for the bearish wedge. Fundamentals will justify all later.

118.50 is not really on the lower line of the wedge, but it is a level if which breaks, will cause a sudden move to 117 which is well below that line.
I pointed to it a little before the yen peaked at about 124. as a target, but now things are little more clear. GL/GT

HK Kevin 14:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
My next favourable trade is sell EUR at 13770.

The Netherlands Purk 14:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Will not post entry because nobody will believe me but longed bugger again....
and stop already 10 pips.

Gen dk 14:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Geneva 14:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The euro /jpy weekly and monthly still very very over bought, that's mean still a l o o t of down side for Usd/jpy and Eur/Usd!!!gl

Richland QC Mailman 14:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Just bought some usd/chf 1.2076 stop 1.2040. 1.2060-65 is the 3rd support box for the day and should hold imho.

Gen dk 14:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Home sales are all around here and there. Wishy washy and crashy this Usd looks like....... And the harakiri karrie as oil goes for 85 bucks soon.

London NYAM 14:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:03 GMT July 26, 2007//
Yes sir 118.50 is the number to watch. Break that and the massive triangle developed since 1995 is complete. It augers a L/T trend change to sub 100

USA Zeus 14:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:03 GMT July 26, 2007

Just imagine how bad it could have been without doing my part! LOL

USA Zeus 14:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:03 GMT July 26, 2007

HK Kevin 14:04 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:00 GMT July 26, 2007
HK [email protected] 13:53 GMT, weekly trendline support at 115.50. Looking at the chart. USD/JPY is still a sell unless trade and close above 120.96
50 ma of the weekly chart at 119.27. my previous post means sell near 120.20-50 level.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 14:04 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
New home sales were a weaker than expected: 834k in June from a downward revised 893k (was 915k) in May.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:57 GMT - LOLROTF, thanks for the contribution on behalf of Uncle Sam.

The Netherlands Purk 14:02 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
s/l taken.

Lahore FM 14:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Mailman,great trades there.ecellent.yep am doing fine ,thanx.

HK Kevin 14:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:53 GMT, weekly trendline support at 115.50. Looking at the chart. USD/JPY is still a sell unless trade and close above 120.96

The Netherlands Purk 13:58 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
s/l at 79...

Richland QC Mailman 13:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM remember aussie my good friend? I opened up additional shorts @ 8854 and 8852. Only 1/3 of the possies still open, the rest liquidated 8769 and 8767.

Hope you are having a fine day too.

Lahore FM 13:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:29 GMT July 26, 2007
long gbpjpy at 244.09.tentative stops at 243.30
--
closed half at 244.61.

The Netherlands Purk 13:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Well it happens all so fast, but i am long e/j at 163592, and already put s/l at 69. I am going for the gap at 16450.... but maybe Dick will take my stop first. He may because 10 pips is 10 pips

USA Zeus 13:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Well I did my fair share to help June new home sales. Let's see how much that bolsters the report.
LOL

HK Kevin 13:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:42 GMT, simply based on the assumption that carry trade activity is still carried on without the impact of an earth shaking event, I may be wrong and hope to hear and learn from your insights.
Another half short AUD/JPY covered at 104.79

HK [email protected] 13:53 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
A break of 118.50 may be followed by a sharp move to 117.

UK Alex 13:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
TRY/JPY +2.9%

Syd 13:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:48 GMT when the dust settles :-))

hk ab 13:48 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
syd//willing to buy some aud under these chaos?

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
data event risk

14:00GMT - US June New Home Sales
market: 890K last: 915K

sydney zigen 13:44 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd has broke 2.0458 support, now heading down towards 2.0258 (38.2% ret.)

PAR 13:44 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Why is TRY dropping drom 1.2500 to 1.2900 ?

Lahore FM 13:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:45 GMT July 26, 2007
Lahore FM 21:16 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 13:53 GMT July 23, 2007
Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 20, 2007

------------------------
closed all 0.8026 short at 0.7905 for 121 pips.

HK [email protected] 13:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:03 GMT July 26, 2007
........Overall, the carry trade game is still rolling.
USD/JPY 118.50 level is very important and should not broken.

-----------------------------------------------------------


Why 118.50 should not be broken? I think the market likes to test those important points.
If this level goes I think the bankers whom loaned the housewives the margin will celebrate,

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
US Treasury's Paulson says 'I'm a strong dollar man'.

UK Alex 13:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:31 GMT July 26, 2007
What do you mean? ;-)

madrid mm 13:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg NGT 13:34 GMT July 26, 2007

no worries.

Also post on the help forum you could get other advices.

Johannesburg NGT 13:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid MM

Thanks. I really appreciate your advice and encouragement.

madrid mm 13:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg NGT 13:21 GMT July 26, 2007

We have all been there!!! 8+-)

You have to find a system that fits you, ie day trading, swing trading etc....
Practice make perfect!

Work hard at learning and practice practice practice.

sound silly, but losing is part of trading somehow.

PAR 13:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Whats happening with the Turkish Lire ? Some Turkish bank in trouble ?

Lahore FM 13:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
long gbpjpy at 244.09.tentative stops at 243.30

dc CB 13:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

Bloomberg.com reports that The "golden era'' for leveraged buyouts proclaimed by Henry Kravis two months ago is losing its luster. Kravis, co-founder of New York-based Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., said on May 29 that there was "plenty of capital'' to finance acquisitions. Yesterday, Chrysler (DCX) and Alliance Boots Plc failed to find buyers for $20 bln of loans to pay for their buyouts. Ten banks, including Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co., were stuck holding the debt. LBO firms, which announced an unprecedented $690.4 bln of takeovers this year, need to raise $300 bln of debt to fund purchases, according to data compiled by Bear Stearns Cos. That's going to get harder because investors, hit by losses on subprime mortgages, are shunning riskier bonds and loans. "You're going to see more broken deals,'' billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said in an interview yesterday in New York. "If the investment banks continue to get hung up, their appetite for risk is going to go down. That'll be a big change.'' Sales still in negotiations are being affected. Cadbury Schweppes (CSG), the London-based maker of Dairy Milk chocolate, may get less than the $15 biln sought for its U.S. beverage unit as two buyout groups bidding for the division struggle to arrange funding, people with knowledge of the talks said yesterday. ....

HK Kevin 13:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 13:05, please forgive my interuption. I don't know the story and invisisble forces behind the carry trades. But too many traders like me are aruging and exoecting for a correction. In this case, my simple mind tell me the tide and wave is not over yet.
I try to recall my memory the stimulator of the horrible carry trade unwinding in Oct 1998. Is't the Russian debt issue, any body can tell me.

Hong Kong Ahe 13:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:12 GMT - Yenophobes (Code as Japanese Housewives) may not shed blood if NZDJPY falls. Normally they invested the money for a year. Jul2006 NZDJPY is around 70. After 9 months rise to 86 and corrected to 77.50 in Mar2007 within a month. They were still earning alot of money. Then it keeps on rising to 97 in July2007. They squared out all position and earn both the exchange rate and interests after 1 yr deposit. They are rich in their pocket. Shedding blood are only those latecomers whatever they are.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is working on the barrier at 119.27 // 119.46. The next downside targeting level is 118.96 - 119.07.

Lahore FM 13:21 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:39 GMT July 26, 2007
Lahore FM 04:53 GMT July 25, 2007
short audjpy 106.44,stops at 107.10.target open.
-----------------------
Out of half at 105.55 for 100 pips.

---------------------------
closed all at 104.70 for 174 pips.

Johannesburg NGT 13:21 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid MM

Thanks for the advice. When using the demo it seemed much easier, maybe because it wasn't my money.

But on live every trade I make seems to go the opposite way.

hk ab 13:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR, BOJ failed.....

Lahore FM 13:20 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
tentative long usdjpy 119.20.stops at 118.80.

Gen dk 13:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 13:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:12 GMT July 26, 2007

in case Japanese rates and inflation are about to stay around the levels they are, and if the leverage into this adventure was well considered and safely taken by the housewives, then anything above 37 in ten years time will come out as good investment for the housewives and not as coffins ... but, leverage kills more than the price action, all the answers will come out ... we will see

madrid mm 13:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
And I thought summer trading was slow
lol

UK Alex 13:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Keep an eye on Deutsche Bank - rumours of big trading losses due to subprime fallout.

melbourne DC 13:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
$Y havng sort of daily down channel floor around 119.40 on my chart.

madrid mm 13:15 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg NGT 13:04 GMT July 26, 2007

use demo and don t get carry away by Extraordianry results.
And play small to start with
and don t panic and let your emotions take over your head
8+-)

USA Zeus 13:14 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Perrie- Looks like the most favored trade will make to its target.

Happy Trades!

hk ab 13:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 13:05 GMT July 26, 2007

Hope that they don't need to witness a 30% fall in nzd/jpy in a month..... Otherwise, the thing they consumed is not pain killer but coffins....

St. Annaland Bob 13:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, the greed and brains of the player at the other side are for sure not less than the greed and brains of the housewives ... the mental powers of the major JPY players are oceans of wisdom, the action shows that something mega is rolling out.

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:37 GMT July 18, 2007
sold gold 672.70 will add 680 if seen.

---------
closed half at 668.20.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
okay. lets go gbp/usd go up also gold. have moved on safe raillway up now.
see u later.

PAR 13:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Maybe WestLB can sell stake in the bank to the Chinese. Lol.

HK Kevin 13:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Closed half short AUD/JPY from 106.62 at 105.09

UK Alex 13:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) WestLB management board to be dismissed for deliberate manipulations - report

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 13:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg NGT 13:04 GMT July 26, 2007
Hi. I'm new to trading. Any tips for a beginner like what's best to look at before entering trade etc.


Hi....Where to keep your stop loss. GL.


NY tim 13:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY get ready for 254 in 2 months

St. Annaland Bob 13:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:50 GMT July 26, 2007

it's about time for Japanese housewives to consume painkillers (i.e. opium), their euphoria is about to change into free fall that will get equal to the fall of Qing dynasty ... the fall of JPY of corrupt at least as the raise of Qing dynasty, but I cannot tell how long it will last ... truly, the powers in this play are above any prediction my gut can tell ... kill the own ego first, then trader may become ready for FX markets from their profitable side ... it's all a question how leveraged the housewives went into this adventure, nothing else that I can see.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 13:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ready for battle in gold. buy now my friend !!!!. 668.30 - 665.80 is bottom range.

Johannesburg NGT 13:04 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Hi.
I'm new to trading. Any tips for a beginner like what's best to look at before entering trade etc.

hk ab 13:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
aud will be dragged hard soon.

HK Kevin 13:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The market is still moving orderly with carry trade unwinding gradually. Only those late coming Japanese housewives are being published. Overall, the carry trade game is still rolling.
USD/JPY 118.50 level is very important and should not broken.

Ldn 20 hours ago 12:59 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
A series of explosions at a facility that sells liquefied natural gas sent flaming debris raining onto highways and buildings near downtown Dallas. At least two people were injured, hospital officials

Lahore FM 12:59 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
plus jpy has yet to humble nzd and aud.when that happens we will have a real scramble.

Lahore FM 12:58 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
NS,more help coming for audusd shorts with plummetting gold.

PAR 12:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
When Trichet was president of french central bank Credit Lyonnais alos lost billions of dollars before anybody noticed there was a problem .

Lahore FM 12:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:36 GMT July 26, 2007
the purpose of taking profit on 679 short was not to reverse the trade but just to lighten up a bit for 665 and 650.still have shorts and will short some more if it rises.

hk 12:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
why gv censor the word japan?

UK Alex 12:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Didn't WestLB accidentally build a 14% stake in Daimler Chrysler?

hk ab 12:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
some people might want to push the gold down to push down the oil...... imvho.

hk ab 12:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Bob, why?
ACtually a pic suddenly pop in my mind which is: why the high oil doesn't bring censored any inflation? Especially when yen is kept depreciating against dlr?

PAR 12:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Apparently huge losses in securities department of WestLB of Germany .

St. Annaland Bob 12:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:45 GMT July 26, 2007

do you mean Bank of China?

hk ab 12:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
seems BOJ is v. busy now.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
about gbp/usd
there are big money for open buy position. today gbp/usd have touched 2.0426. maybe from there will go till 2.0996. there are 3 levels as start level for 2.0996. first is 2.0426 (have done) and if that level be broken please wait 2.0280 for buy again in averaging strategy and final low (if done) at 2.0204. all from that start levels give same top target at 2.0996. please hold for several days.

GL/GT
me,

raden

hk ab 12:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Raden, what's your time frame for that gold target? it looks puzzled still. I still want to try some short gold positions on some spike tonight.

Lahore FM 12:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:36 GMT July 26, 2007
Raden you would be the first person whose advice i would take on gold for i follow only myself.thanx still!

UK Alex 12:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
But with Brent having recently come to be regarded as a better reflection of global oil prices, some were left querying the reversal on the basis of the stock picture alone.

"The WTI move is rather dramatic, back at a premium to Brent. But the reasons that caused the discount have not entirely disappeared," said Harry Tchilinguirian at BNP Paribas.

"We'll have to see how long that's going to last - there's been a lot of talk over how Brent has been a better market of global oil prices."

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:36 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:32 GMT July 26, 2007
as your friend I hope you think twice if you decide to short of gold. my suggest is strong for buy gold.

Lahore FM 12:32 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:10 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 13:00 GMT July 20, 2007
last gold short 679.00,stopless as before.will consider stopping on close above 688.
--
closed half at 673.90.
--

closed remainder at 672.25 for 6.75 dolls.will reshort higher.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
I dont know what will happen with this world, because chart of Gold see very bullish now after today touch 665.80 and that level is strong bottom and give clear pattern will go till new high 724.00 for the first sub top. The strong top target is 806.20 with sub top band range at 753.90-767.90.

Maybe caused by oil price will move up with crazy till above 100 usd/bbl or US-China trade conflict and US have only a choice to make weak of usd index.

To stock index and stock players..be carefull with potentialy of crash stock with BLACK MONDAY.
Be carefull...!!!!!!!!!

hk ab 12:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, interesting games in gold in process now.

HK Kevin 12:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 10:57 GMT July 26, 2007
When will the gravity affect Aussie?
It seems gravity is working now.
Sold all short USD/JPY from 120.40 at 119.86, still holding short AUD and AUD/JPY.
Have a feeling USD/JPY is range trading 119.50-120.50 for several day before testing 118.50 m/t bottom next week.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : : Daily Forecast

Daily Directional Indicator : "120.49" - "120.64*" - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70*

Remarks : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 120.45. Projected resistant points are located at 121.41 and 121.70.

Daily Cycle (120.50) : ... 118.65 - 118.96* - 119.26 - 119.42 // 119.57* - 119.72 - 119.88 - 120.03 - 120.18* - 120.34 - [120.49] - 120.64 - 120.80* - 120.95 - 121.10 - 121.26 - 121.41* // 121.56 - 121.72 - 122.02* - 122.33 ...


Upside Targeting Points : 121.41 and 121.27


Downside Targeting Points : 119.46 and 119.57


Weekly Distribution of Super Magnets : (116.31) - (118.86) - 119.20* - 119.37 - 120.32 - 120.45* - "120.49" - "120.64*" 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70* - 122.21 - 122.96* - 123.16 - (123.96) - 124.21* - (126.51)

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 12:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hello all. hope all people here are fine till now.

Stockholm za 12:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FX smart...
Please Please – Guys don’t forget this…

Global-View 10:33 GMT July 21, 2007
Subject: Forex Blog
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We are expanding the GVI forex blog by creating a new section on our website. We are looking for quality traders who would like to setup a blog. If interested, send us an EMAIL

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Lahore FM 12:01 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
NS dear thanx.aussie is still good from sell side.for cable see 2.0405 max for a day or two.

Gen dk 11:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 11:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 11:50 GMT July 26, 2007
FM hi mate congrats gud trades me still on with aussy n cbl and of the two i understand u have different view on cbl but what u feel on aussy gl gt

------
NS dear than.aussie is till good from sell side.for cable see 2.0405 ma for a day or two.

Hong Kong Ahe 11:52 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
All Yenophobies of Carry Trade are all aligned now to retreat. EURJPY will hit next key support of 161.50. GLGT.

Mumbai NS 11:50 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM hi mate congrats gud trades me still on with aussy n cbl and of the two i understand u have different view on cbl but what u feel on aussy gl gt

Lahore FM 11:49 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:45 GMT July 26, 2007
Than NYAM,it just so happened. :)

madrid mm 11:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
So much for correlation Euro/$ and $/YEN lol

How Fascinating !!! LOL

London NYAM 11:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM you are having a pretty phenomenal week. Congrats and keep it up. GV prize this week no doubt. ;)

Lahore FM 11:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:16 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 13:53 GMT July 23, 2007
Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 20, 2007
ndusd short 0.7987,stops at 0.8040.
--

raised stops to 0.8060.sold one more at 0.8026.
----
closed 0.7987 short at 0.8006 for 19 pips loss.
keeping 0.8026 short and nzdjpy partial short from 96.93.would like to add if 0.8060 seen though looks likely but we can have some censored housewives buying into this nzd weakness with ever abundant jpy.
--------------------------------
closed half of 0.8026 short at 0.7938 for 88 pips.stops in place now at 0.7990 for half.

Brisbane Flip 11:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
$jpy opened the year 119.00. While 120 is pyscholgical that is the big level IMHO. When $jpy went below 119 (i.e. -ve for the year) in march the market puked. When it recovered and stabilized above it ther market felt happy to re-continue adding. BOJ hardly have any legitimate reason to sell yen when were are still only a few percent above it's 25year lows.

Lahore FM 11:42 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:22 GMT July 23, 2007
audusd shorts from 0.8800 and 0.8820 area stopped at 0.8830 for almost break even due to partial profits at 0.8767 on friday.

--
short again at 0.8840.stops at 0.8890.
---
Out of half at 0.8802 for 38 pips.stops lowered to 0.8860 for remainder.

Lahore FM 11:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:07 GMT July 25, 2007
long eurnzd at 1.7045,tentative stops 100 pips below.

---------
Out all at 1.7264 for 219 pips.

Lahore FM 11:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:53 GMT July 25, 2007
short audjpy 106.44,stops at 107.10.target open.
-----------------------
Out of half at 105.55 for 100 pips.

Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
**
Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 26, 2007
bought 2.0434** without a stop so far.

UK Alex 11:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
No-one has commented on the fact that the Russians have decided to expel are top trade diplomat.

Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
bought 1.0434 without a stop so far.

Lahore FM 11:33 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:17 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 12:47 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 16:36 GMT July 24, 2007
most certainly working mmm.i had posted regarding futility of stops on usdchf when it ranged 9 days.i had none.

--
shorted gbpusd 2.0620*,stopless.

closed1/3rd at 2.0537 for 83 pips.stops placed at entry now for 2/3rds.
--
Out of another 1/3rd at 2.0497 for cumulative 123 pips.
stops further lowered to 2.0560 for last 1/3.

-----------------------------------------------------
Out of last 1/3rd at 2.0434 for cumulative profit of 186 pips.

PAR 11:33 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
120.00 is the line in the sand . Boj will not allow USDJPY to close below 120.00 because it would reduce their small trade surplus .

PAR 11:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Guess market is becoming velly
velly disoldelly . Need to watch velly calefully . Lol.

Gen dk 11:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 11:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR thanks calling the boj.

The Netherlands Purk 11:25 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:54 GMT July 26, 2007
Like when bugger goes up it skips levels, that also can happen when it goes down.....
So when the 164 zone is entered we might skip the upper part of that....

err yes it did...... now we have to see how big the bounces are....

UK Alex 11:22 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, I agree, 0.7700 is the first stop for bargain hunters.

hk ab 11:22 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR you forgot your call to BOJ....

hk ab 11:19 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
alex, probably against yen......
banks luring c9 to buy all those 3X carry bond.

Syd 11:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The Japanese finance ministry's new top bureaucrat said Thursday the government is carefully monitoring foreign exchange markets, but he declined to comment specifically on recent movements. In doing so, Hiroki Tsuda, who took over as vice finance minister from Hideto Fujii two weeks ago, underscored the authority's oft-stated position on currency issues. "Foreign exchange should reflect economic fundamentals," Tsuda said at a regular news conference in response to a question about the yen's recent rise versus other major currencies. The dollar Wednesday broke below Y120.00 for the first time in two and a half months amid growing concerns over U.S. subprime mortgage woes. "We cannot assess the possibility," Tsuda said about whether other participants would pick up on the weak yen or the yen-carry trade as topics for discussion. Tsuda also said Japan's economy remains on a solid recovery path with a steady improvement in private-sector activities such as consumer spending.


UK Alex 11:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, I think pullbacks are going to be deeper than people are expecting. Let's see.

hk ab 11:12 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
alex,how many weeks target?

GVI john 11:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
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UK Alex 11:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
0.7700 is doable.

hk ab 10:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
7940 was the starting point of the last herd brave carrier.

HK Kevin 10:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
When will the gravity affect Aussie?

hk ab 10:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Alex, how low do u think this kiwi can go?

UK Alex 10:48 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, it is affecting other credit markets and because of this the banks are taking losses on their private equity debt deals. Doesn't inspire confidence.

UK Alex 10:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Kyodo)--The average lifespan of Japanese women in 2006 was the longest in the world at 85.81 years, maintaining the top spot for the 22nd consecutive year, according to data released Thursday by the health ministry.

hk ab 10:45 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
so this subprime is a disease and spreading.

hk ab 10:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Alex, if USD drop was due to sub-prime, aud and gbp looks dire.

UK Alex 10:40 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
A second Australian hedge fund has become caught up in the subprime mortgage fallout, with Absolute Capital telling investors it has suspended withdrawals from two funds until October due to a lack of liquidity in structured credit markets. Sydney-based Absolute Capital, which specialises in structured credit assets and is half-owned by ABN Amor Australia, said the two funds are Absolute Capital Yield Strategies Fund and the Absolute Capital Strategies Fund NZD, and are worth A$200m ($177m) combined. The suspension follows a decision by Australian hedge fund Basis Capital to suspend redemptions on two of its funds and appoint US-based Blackstone Group as financial adviser to help prevent a fire sale of its assets.

GENEVA DS 10:14 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
oh yes do hundred percent agree with you... good luck and lets move this afternoon, before we go to sleep... gl

Wellington, N.Z. 10:13 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
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The Netherlands Purk 10:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
No need to be sorry of anything there, it is ok, as everything is, it is my message to say that you have to try to be the market...

GENEVA DS 09:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
sorry netherlands.. I do apologize my words.. of course you are right.... hope you still understand our meaning.... thanks buddy... gl

The Netherlands Purk 09:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Market does not hope, because it can not go to toilet. Markets just decides which way it goes without the toilet business. Market just takes entries, stops, targets and orders nothing more nothing less.

GENEVA DS 09:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
fly robin fly.... people would like... all we know is... that market is really HOPING for this next eurusd and GBPUSD -rally.... but key probably could be JPY... if GBPJPY breaks 245.50 or EURJPY breaks 164.70.... then the dam will break and EURUSD will fall very quickly to 1.3100 and cabloe to 19800 and USDJPY to 116000... NO CHANCE THAT USD INDEX GONNA BREAK 80... WAY TOO OBVIOUS.... gl

london bob 09:30 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
BP/USD will fly today on the upside again

The Netherlands Purk 09:24 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Imagine yourself leaving on Monday the 23rd of July watching the e/u at 138, you come back on Friday and see it is still 138, you start to think it did not move and go away again....
I see swissy down a bit, lets see if this continues...
Bugger is trying higher lines to short from...

Syd 09:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Veteran investment guru Jim Rogers says in Shanghai the sooner China makes its currency convertible the better, as "a blocked currency" could create bubble in real estate, stock market. Adds CNY could "go much, much higher" in next few years; "it could even double, but China can still remain competitive."
blah blah blah

NY tim 09:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
2.0479 GBP/USD long SL 2.0450 TP 2.0550

HK Kevin 08:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Guys, any views on USD/JPY? 120.20 seems from today's bottom.

Montréal Taro 08:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have trouble to get connected with I F X ?

Montréal Taro 08:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have trouble to get connected with censored ?

PAR 08:36 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Paulson in China to explain why the Chinese $ 3 billion investment in Blackstone is now worth only $ 2.58 billion . America is offering the best returns and a strong dollar is in Us interest . Lol.

Syd 08:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK June Mortgage Lending +GBP21.5B, Highest Ever

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:07 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Germany CPI for the state of Saxony is 0.4%mm fm 0.0%mm ag forecasts for 0.4%mm.

USA Zeus 08:06 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
They will be tossing around the "I" word now and feel compelled to use energy cost as the convenient excuse for any staged poor economic conditions.
LOL

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
EURO AREA M3 10.9% AFTER 10.7% EXP 10.7%

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:04 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
IFO 106.4 FM 107.00 EXP 106.4

USA Zeus 07:57 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sure its not normal for so many posts about oil but when the clog gives it should ring a few alarms- Just hit 77.15!!! Most favored trade today will likely get wild when Eric Bolling and crew awaken to see oil in a Zeus zone.

The Netherlands Purk 07:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Like when bugger goes up it skips levels, that also can happen when it goes down.....
So when the 164 zone is entered we might skip the upper part of that.... numbers: 16633 for up all the way. Down: 16450 of course....
I dont see swissy above 122 yet, for me important level for further downside e/u.
Loonie: wishing is maybe enough, would like that 10439 back for a few days. I remember when going fast up, there was too much profittaking revealing new sell orders.
Wonder when oily boily shows up to tell us these levels are very good for buying anything against the usd....
Wish that the HAT calls the oil price back to 70, petrolstation is demanding prices mrs. Purk refuses to pay, forcing the Purk to walk.... but (t) walking is good for them anyroad....

Gen dk 07:48 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 07:35 need about three months of falls before you can trust it , still see first 6% , but remember the floods have cooled the pace over the last month

USA Zeus 07:36 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
JJ- Call it a lucky omen for 77.77 oil.
76.70 now.

Sydney ACC 07:35 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:29 GMT July 26, 2007
Still hold to the belief we are heading for 6.25%, if so, what do you think MPC will do next week?

Syd 07:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
The disappointing slow rise in Nationwide UK house prices, up 0.1% rather than the 0.5% that had been expected, is not good news for the GBP. As The Royal Bank of Scotland says, the data "is another indication that previous Bank of England rate hikes are finally working." The GBP is back down at $2.0501 from $2.0524 late Wednesday in New York.

USA Zeus 07:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Right Good things happen when clogs are around. "Giving" 300 pip reversal in oil since inventory #'s.

We scratch he sniffs NN pushes the buttons.

The Netherlands Purk 06:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Right, the clog is back from Germany right to see Loonie and kiwi's matured for me. NN sure did a good job. As said to the HAT, cable has most potential (from 206526... hehehehe) for 20000000000.
Bugger is still doing the ticky ticker to the low. Expect bouncing, have to see if they match the 50+.
Buying usd on rallies, but maybe rallies are small...

madrid mm 06:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
* RBNZ hikes OCR by 25bps to 8.25%. RBNZ Gov Alan Bollard says he expects no further tightening. NZ economy is running strong, tight labour market, rising oil and food prices fuelling inflation. High NZD not sustainable and hurting exporters.

* NZ Finmin Michael Cullen says NZD gain not solely due to interest rates. NZD bouyed by milk prices, weak USD - BBG.

* Australia Treasurer Peter Costello says that inflation in Australia is currently within RBA's 2-3% target range and the government is happy with that. Inflation is right "where we want it." CPI is one of the lowest in 10-years.

* US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson, in Fox News, reiterates sub prime issues largely contained, not major risk to economy.

* BoJ member Tadao Noda says BoJ has no preset idea on rate hike timing, will need to adjust rates if economy and prices are moving as forecast. Always watching whether excessive risk position are taken in the markets. Japan may see rising inflation pressure if emerging nations sustain high growth.

* NY Fed Timothy Geithner: US economy is performing well. Defaults on commercial and industrial loans remain "extremely low".

* Moody's upgrades China ratings to A1 from A2, upgrades HK ratings from Aa2 from Aa3.

* WSJ: Yesterday, Chrysler Group became a signpost for the high-yield-debt market's strain as bankers for the ailing auto giant postponed a $12b sale of debt to investors as part of a buyout severing Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler.

Kiwi remains the focus today, after the choppy moves post RBNZ, rising from 0.8035 to 0.8055 on OCR hike, only to fall to 0.7990 when RBNZ says no further tightening.

Kiwi rebounded from lows, but then came into fresh selling from funds, pushing it to lows of 0.7962, as Kiwi broadly lower. NZD/JPY dipped to below 96 on back of broad based Kiwi sales, before edging up on bottom fishing to 96.30-40

AUD/NZD hit 1-wk highs 1.1095 after options triggers/ stops at 1.1060-70 taken out, despite earlier bouts of selling from large US banking group, on "diverging" view - with RBA seen hiking and RBNZ pausing. Resistance at 1.1100-20, but stoploss orders building on break of 1.1120. NZD/USD stoploss blw 0.7945.

USD/JPY rose on talks of >Y500b worth of new Toushin to be launched, hitting highs of 120.75 on US investments, banks buying, but dipped again to 120.44 as Japan mega-city banks sold. Bids reported at 120.20-30, with talks of Japanese toushin demand.

EUR/JPY dipped earlier on back of Japan mega-city banks sold, with interest still to sell EUR/JPY on rallies after yesterdays huge selling and selloff to 1-month lows of 164.70. Offers now at 165.50-60.

Still talks of buy on dips on the toushin, but market cautious of being too long EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY long liquidation by funds, and with NZD/JPY vulnerable to fresh waves of Funds selling after RBNZ signals OCR (Kiwi?) is at peak.

EUR heavy after yest's selloff to 2-week lows of 1.3696, bids at 1.3680-00, stoploss building below 1.3680. GBP/USD supported on EUR/GBP sales.

Nikkei -0.28% or 50pts at 17,808. JGBs a touch lower, with 10-yr JGB yield +0.010% at 1.865%.

Sep crude oil extends gains in Asia after rallying in NY , $76.26, +$0.28.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.41/120.75, EUR/USD 1.3707/1.3728, GBP/USD 2.0497/2.0542, USD/CHF 1.2127/1.2143, AUD/USD 0.8827/0.8863, NZD/USD 0.7962/0.8027.

madrid mm 06:17 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
gm FX Jedi,

Richland QC Mailman 06:10 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sold aussies 8840 stop 8870 target 8830.

Ramat Afal SBS 05:56 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
FM, many thanks. I am with you.

Lahore FM 05:54 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SBS,i favour a sell here at 0.8850 with reasonable stops.i am short at 0.8840 with 90 stop for a while.gtgl.

Syd 05:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Noda: BOJ Recognizes Risk Of Rapid Yen Rise
Cannot Forecast Impact Of Election
No Preset Ideas On Rate Hike Timing
Will Not Rule Out Any Options In August

Ramat Afal SBS 05:41 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
sorry I meant to lahore FM

Ramat Afal SBS 05:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
HM, HK, good morning. do you have opinion on AUD for coming days, do you expect new highs? , I think its time for him to start diving.

Syd 05:37 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:14 GMT yes agree, these people shouldnt be given a voice -

Lahore FM 05:34 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:14 GMT July 25, 2007
Lahore FM 11:34 GMT July 25, 2007
short gbpjpy 247.60,mind stops at 248.40.target open.
--
Out of half at 246.80 for 80 pips.stops for 1/2 at entry now.
--
stopped for half at entry for cumulative gain of 80 pips.

GENEVA DS 05:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
strange feeling.... not long ago, the whole planet wanted always corrections in EURJPY and USDJPY to go long... nearly never they had em... hmmm... for about 6 years.... now, it seems to us that lots of people would like to have rallies to go short USDJPY and EURJPY.... guess what will happen... have a good trading day...

Sydney ACC 05:14 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:43 GMT July 26, 2007
There was a story about the team a couple of years back, maybe they played Australia in the qualifying stages of teh World Cup in Germany last year, I can't remember. Anyhowq whatever it was the journalists beefed up the story as an example of how the religious and ethnic divides had been broken down by sport. Itr was a good news story, a needle in the haystack of awful news that comes out of that poor country each day.
While more than this number die each day it just hit me as how futile it all is.
There's a story too in the poaper today about a mass grave they found at Fromelles of 400 British and Australian troops from World War 1. Turns out the grave was discovered by ateam from Glasgow University. The essential piece of information they needed to find the grave's location came from the Germans. Just another example of the futility of it all. Yesterday we were enemies, today we are friends. Let's hope that comes to Iraq one day.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   

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HK Kevin 04:55 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone notice the spread of AUD/JPY has widen?

Cbj Jake 04:03 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
SYD/SYD ACC: It takes centuries to build fellow-feeling among disparate peoples. Yet it can collapse very quickly. Our institutions seem so dysfunctional sometimes yet they are the only "tool" that forces us to engage one another rationally.I force myself to look at the pictures everyday, only as a token.

Syd 03:35 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Noda: Need To Adjust Policy RatesBank of Japan board member Tadao Noda said Thursday the central bank needs to adjust policy interest rates to achieve sustainable economic growth with price stability.

"If we don't adjust policy in a timely manner, big policy adjustments could be needed in the future, and then such adjustments may impede a long-lasting economic growth," Noda said in a speech before business leaders in Nara, central of Japan.
Market players are speculating that the BOJ board may raise the unsecured overnight call loan rate to 0.75% at the August policy setting meeting.

Richland QC Mailman 03:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Good day folks!

Euro and GBP have blinked! Aussie is following suit? Looks like a correction is looming from 8860.

Syd 02:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:31 thats why I posted it , absolutely shocking
just cant believe how low these people will go

Sydney ACC 02:31 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:38 GMT July 26, 2007
Now that is really awful!

Syd 01:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Dual bombs strike Iraqis celebrating soccer win
At least 50 killed, more than 130 injured during festivities for Asian Cup
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19955222/

Toronto MRC 01:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:35 GMT July 26, 2007

not so sure.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:18 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

hk ab 00:47 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
kiwi was held up high due to the uncertainty before RBNZ, now it can do whatever it planned to do originally now.

hk ab 00:46 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
I think dlr/jpy needs to restore some recoiling forces first before being able to break the steel floor 120 again.

but needs to see development. I do hope to see 121.xx.....

UK Alex 00:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
$/yen of course! :-)

hk ab 00:43 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Alex//which pair?

hk ab 00:39 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
the bowling was run but could not crush the soldiers much.
Let's see what censored housewives "think".

UK Alex 00:38 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
ab, how much futher do you think there is to go?

hk ab 00:35 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
this round of carry unwinding looks over. a relieve and then next decision.

May long e/j near 165 again.

UK Alex 00:29 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 23:36 GMT July 25, 2007
I wonder what he means by this?
"These reforms will have a long fuse."

USA Zeus 00:27 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 00:09 GMT July 26, 2007
Very hard indeed. Word is that the iphone is creating mac and other sales from the draw.

UK Alex 00:11 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Speculation is increasing that Apple will introduce an improved iPhone around November, in order to keep sales momentum going. Apple's goal is to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008.

UK Alex 00:09 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:05 GMT July 26, 2007
Apple is going to have to push its iPhone hard if it doesn't want to disappoint.

USA Zeus 00:05 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
So Bidu and Apple cushed their earnings. Stock market to be very active...

USA Zeus 00:01 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
Ready to crush the asian session.

dc CB 00:00 GMT July 26, 2007 Reply   
"Lenders' Prime Mortgage Woes Are a Sign of Even Bigger Problems to Come, Analysts Say "

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070725/mortgage_woes.html?.v=4

 




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